Home / Leagues / WNBA / 2022

2022 WNBA Season

216 regular-season games · 8 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Las Vegas Aces

1st Title

Runner-Up

Connecticut Sun

4th Appearance

Last Appearance: 2019

Biggest Overachiever

New York Liberty

3.50 wins above expected

16 wins · 12.50 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Indiana Fever

3.65 wins below expected

5 wins · 8.65 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

# Team W L Pct GB PPG OPP DIFF SimW vsSim
1 Las Vegas Aces League 26 10 .722 - 90.4 83.8 +6.6 24.67 +1.33
2 Chicago Sky Playoffs 26 10 .722 - 86.2 81.2 +5.0 24.77 +1.23
3 Connecticut Sun Playoffs 25 11 .694 1 85.8 77.8 +8.0 25.19 -0.19
4 Seattle Storm Playoffs 22 14 .611 4 82.5 78.4 +4.1 20.88 +1.12
5 Washington Mystics Playoffs 22 14 .611 4 80.2 75.9 +4.4 18.60 +3.40
6 Dallas Wings Playoffs 18 18 .500 8 82.9 82.8 +0.2 16.87 +1.13
7 New York Liberty Playoffs 16 20 .444 10 79.6 82.0 -2.4 12.50 +3.50
8 Phoenix Mercury Playoffs 15 21 .417 11 81.1 84.1 -3.0 17.98 -2.98
9 Minnesota Lynx 14 22 .389 12 82.2 83.9 -1.8 17.59 -3.59
10 Atlanta Dream 14 22 .389 12 78.5 81.5 -3.0 13.92 +0.08
11 Los Angeles Sparks 13 23 .361 13 79.4 86.6 -7.1 14.38 -1.38
12 Indiana Fever 5 31 .139 21 78.0 89.1 -11.1 8.65 -3.65

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 New York Liberty 16 12.50 +3.50
2 Washington Mystics 22 18.60 +3.40
3 Las Vegas Aces 26 24.67 +1.33
4 Chicago Sky 26 24.77 +1.23
5 Dallas Wings 18 16.87 +1.13

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Indiana Fever 5 8.65 -3.65
2 Minnesota Lynx 14 17.59 -3.59
3 Phoenix Mercury 15 17.98 -2.98
4 Los Angeles Sparks 13 14.38 -1.38
5 Connecticut Sun 25 25.19 -0.19

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dallas Wings 5 Jul 30 – Aug 8 1 in 50
2 Las Vegas Aces 7 May 13 – May 31 1 in 21
3 Minnesota Lynx 3 Jul 3 – Jul 12 1 in 18
4 Washington Mystics 3 May 6 – May 10 1 in 15
5 Indiana Fever 2 May 10 – May 13 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Phoenix Mercury 7 May 17 – Jun 3 1 in 102
2 Minnesota Lynx 5 Jun 7 – Jun 19 1 in 45
3 Indiana Fever 18 Jun 23 – Aug 14 1 in 32
4 Los Angeles Sparks 6 Jul 23 – Aug 5 1 in 21
5 Connecticut Sun 2 Jun 19 – Jun 22 1 in 21

Playoff Bracket

WNBA Playoffs

Quarterfinals

Chicago Sky 2
New York Liberty 1

3 games · Aug 17–Aug 23

Las Vegas Aces 2
Phoenix Mercury 0

2 games · Aug 17–Aug 20

Connecticut Sun 2
Dallas Wings 1

3 games · Aug 18–Aug 24

Seattle Storm 2
Washington Mystics 0

2 games · Aug 18–Aug 21

Semifinals

Las Vegas Aces 3
Seattle Storm 1

4 games · Aug 28–Sep 6

Connecticut Sun 3
Chicago Sky 2

5 games · Aug 28–Sep 8

WNBA Finals

Las Vegas Aces 3
Connecticut Sun 1

4 games · Sep 11–Sep 18

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team Dream Sky Sun Wings Fever Aces Sparks Lynx Liberty Mercury Storm Mystics
Atlanta Dream
0-3
(0.7 exp.)
0-3
(0.7 exp.)
2-1
(1.3 exp.)
4-0
(2.5 exp.)
1-2
(0.7 exp.)
2-1
(1.5 exp.)
1-2
(1.2 exp.)
1-3
(1.9 exp.)
2-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-2
(0.9 exp.)
0-4
(1.6 exp.)
Chicago Sky
3-0
(2.3 exp.)
4-0
(2.0 exp.)
2-1
(2.3 exp.)
2-1
(2.6 exp.)
1-2
(1.4 exp.)
2-1
(2.2 exp.)
2-1
(2.0 exp.)
3-1
(3.2 exp.)
3-0
(2.1 exp.)
1-2
(1.9 exp.)
3-1
(2.7 exp.)
Connecticut Sun
3-0
(2.3 exp.)
0-4
(2.0 exp.)
1-2
(2.2 exp.)
4-0
(3.5 exp.)
1-2
(1.4 exp.)
3-0
(2.3 exp.)
3-0
(2.0 exp.)
2-2
(3.2 exp.)
3-0
(2.2 exp.)
3-0
(1.9 exp.)
2-1
(2.1 exp.)
Dallas Wings
1-2
(1.7 exp.)
1-2
(0.7 exp.)
2-1
(0.8 exp.)
3-0
(2.4 exp.)
1-2
(0.9 exp.)
2-2
(2.3 exp.)
2-1
(1.3 exp.)
2-1
(1.9 exp.)
2-2
(1.9 exp.)
1-3
(1.6 exp.)
1-2
(1.4 exp.)
Indiana Fever
0-4
(1.5 exp.)
1-2
(0.4 exp.)
0-4
(0.5 exp.)
0-3
(0.6 exp.)
0-3
(0.3 exp.)
1-2
(1.0 exp.)
2-1
(0.8 exp.)
1-2
(1.3 exp.)
0-3
(0.7 exp.)
0-3
(0.4 exp.)
0-4
(1.0 exp.)
Las Vegas Aces
2-1
(2.3 exp.)
2-1
(1.6 exp.)
2-1
(1.6 exp.)
2-1
(2.1 exp.)
3-0
(2.7 exp.)
4-0
(3.0 exp.)
3-1
(2.9 exp.)
2-1
(2.3 exp.)
3-0
(1.8 exp.)
3-1
(2.3 exp.)
0-3
(2.0 exp.)
Los Angeles Sparks
1-2
(1.5 exp.)
1-2
(0.8 exp.)
0-3
(0.7 exp.)
2-2
(1.7 exp.)
2-1
(2.0 exp.)
0-4
(1.0 exp.)
1-2
(1.3 exp.)
1-2
(1.5 exp.)
2-2
(1.7 exp.)
1-2
(1.0 exp.)
2-1
(1.1 exp.)
Minnesota Lynx
2-1
(1.8 exp.)
1-2
(1.0 exp.)
0-3
(1.0 exp.)
1-2
(1.7 exp.)
1-2
(2.2 exp.)
1-3
(1.1 exp.)
2-1
(1.7 exp.)
2-1
(2.0 exp.)
4-0
(2.0 exp.)
0-4
(1.6 exp.)
0-3
(1.6 exp.)
New York Liberty
3-1
(2.1 exp.)
1-3
(0.8 exp.)
2-2
(0.8 exp.)
1-2
(1.1 exp.)
2-1
(1.7 exp.)
1-2
(0.7 exp.)
2-1
(1.5 exp.)
1-2
(1.0 exp.)
1-2
(1.2 exp.)
0-3
(0.7 exp.)
2-1
(0.9 exp.)
Phoenix Mercury
1-2
(1.9 exp.)
0-3
(0.9 exp.)
0-3
(0.8 exp.)
2-2
(2.1 exp.)
3-0
(2.3 exp.)
0-3
(1.2 exp.)
2-2
(2.3 exp.)
0-4
(2.0 exp.)
2-1
(1.8 exp.)
3-0
(1.3 exp.)
2-1
(1.4 exp.)
Seattle Storm
2-1
(2.1 exp.)
2-1
(1.1 exp.)
0-3
(1.1 exp.)
3-1
(2.4 exp.)
3-0
(2.6 exp.)
1-3
(1.7 exp.)
2-1
(2.0 exp.)
4-0
(2.4 exp.)
3-0
(2.3 exp.)
0-3
(1.7 exp.)
2-1
(1.6 exp.)
Washington Mystics
4-0
(2.4 exp.)
1-3
(1.3 exp.)
1-2
(0.9 exp.)
2-1
(1.6 exp.)
4-0
(3.0 exp.)
3-0
(1.0 exp.)
1-2
(1.9 exp.)
3-0
(1.4 exp.)
1-2
(2.1 exp.)
1-2
(1.6 exp.)
1-2
(1.4 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range
↓ Scored | Allowed →<6060–6970–7980–8990–99100–109110+Total
<600.46%0.93%0.69%2.08%
60–690.46%0.93%2.55%3.01%2.08%0.23%9.26%
70–790.93%2.55%6.02%13.66%3.94%1.16%28.24%
80–890.69%3.01%13.66%10.65%7.18%0.69%0.23%36.11%
90–992.08%3.94%7.18%4.63%0.69%18.52%
100–1090.23%1.16%0.69%0.69%1.39%0.69%4.86%
110+0.23%0.69%0.93%
Total2.08%9.26%28.24%36.11%18.52%4.86%0.93%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 82.25 82.25 +0.00
SD 10.97 10.97 13.48
CV 0.13 0.13
Max 118 118 +37
Min 50 50 -37

Games Played: 216

↓ Scored | Allowed →<6060–6970–7980–8990–99100–109110+Total
<602.78%2.78%
60–692.78%8.33%5.56%2.78%19.44%
70–792.78%5.56%13.89%8.33%30.56%
80–892.78%11.11%5.56%5.56%25.00%
90–995.56%5.56%2.78%2.78%16.67%
100–1092.78%2.78%5.56%
110+
Total5.56%2.78%36.11%30.56%19.44%5.56%100%

Atlanta Dream — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 78.50 81.50 -3.00
SD 11.66 11.17 12.79
CV 0.15 0.14
Max 101 106 +27
Min 50 54 -25

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →<6060–6970–7980–8990–99100–109110+Total
<60
60–69
70–792.78%8.33%11.11%22.22%
80–895.56%5.56%8.33%22.22%41.67%
90–995.56%11.11%11.11%27.78%
100–1092.78%2.78%2.78%8.33%
110+
Total5.56%8.33%22.22%44.44%13.89%2.78%2.78%100%

Chicago Sky — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 86.25 81.25 +5.00
SD 8.42 11.58 9.01
CV 0.10 0.14
Max 106 111 +33
Min 71 50 -11

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →<6060–6970–7980–8990–99100–109110+Total
<60
60–692.78%2.78%
70–798.33%5.56%13.89%27.78%
80–898.33%5.56%8.33%5.56%27.78%
90–9911.11%5.56%13.89%8.33%38.89%
100–1092.78%2.78%
110+
Total27.78%19.44%36.11%16.67%100%

Connecticut Sun — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 85.78 77.75 +8.03
SD 9.08 10.48 11.88
CV 0.11 0.13
Max 105 95 +31
Min 63 60 -11

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →<6060–6970–7980–8990–99100–109110+Total
<602.78%2.78%
60–692.78%2.78%5.56%11.11%
70–7919.44%2.78%22.22%
80–892.78%13.89%11.11%5.56%33.33%
90–992.78%2.78%16.67%5.56%27.78%
100–109
110+2.78%2.78%
Total2.78%8.33%16.67%52.78%19.44%100%

Dallas Wings — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 82.94 82.75 +0.19
SD 11.26 9.64 13.25
CV 0.14 0.12
Max 116 99 +28
Min 59 51 -31

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →<6060–6970–7980–8990–99100–109110+Total
<602.78%2.78%
60–692.78%5.56%5.56%13.89%
70–7925.00%13.89%2.78%41.67%
80–892.78%8.33%19.44%30.56%
90–992.78%5.56%8.33%
100–1092.78%2.78%
110+
Total8.33%41.67%47.22%2.78%100%

Indiana Fever — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 77.97 89.06 -11.08
SD 8.91 6.80 8.47
CV 0.11 0.08
Max 101 101 +6
Min 57 73 -26

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →<6060–6970–7980–8990–99100–109110+Total
<60
60–69
70–792.78%8.33%2.78%2.78%16.67%
80–892.78%16.67%11.11%30.56%
90–992.78%8.33%13.89%5.56%2.78%33.33%
100–1095.56%5.56%5.56%2.78%19.44%
110+
Total5.56%33.33%38.89%8.33%11.11%2.78%100%

Las Vegas Aces — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 90.44 83.81 +6.64
SD 10.12 11.09 13.50
CV 0.11 0.13
Max 109 116 +34
Min 71 66 -31

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →<6060–6970–7980–8990–99100–109110+Total
<602.78%2.78%
60–692.78%2.78%5.56%2.78%2.78%16.67%
70–7911.11%8.33%2.78%5.56%27.78%
80–8913.89%13.89%8.33%2.78%38.89%
90–992.78%8.33%2.78%13.89%
100–109
110+
Total2.78%27.78%33.33%22.22%11.11%2.78%100%

Los Angeles Sparks — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 79.44 86.56 -7.11
SD 10.45 10.65 12.96
CV 0.13 0.12
Max 99 116 +10
Min 59 64 -37

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →<6060–6970–7980–8990–99100–109110+Total
<605.56%5.56%
60–692.78%2.78%2.78%8.33%
70–7916.67%5.56%22.22%
80–8922.22%11.11%16.67%50.00%
90–992.78%2.78%5.56%
100–1092.78%2.78%5.56%
110+2.78%2.78%
Total2.78%33.33%36.11%25.00%2.78%100%

Minnesota Lynx — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 82.17 83.92 -1.75
SD 11.15 9.23 12.80
CV 0.14 0.11
Max 118 107 +31
Min 57 64 -27

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →<6060–6970–7980–8990–99100–109110+Total
<602.78%2.78%
60–692.78%5.56%2.78%5.56%16.67%
70–792.78%5.56%16.67%2.78%27.78%
80–895.56%13.89%13.89%5.56%38.89%
90–992.78%2.78%5.56%
100–1092.78%2.78%5.56%
110+2.78%2.78%
Total11.11%30.56%38.89%11.11%8.33%100%

New York Liberty — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 79.61 82.00 -2.39
SD 12.96 10.89 15.10
CV 0.16 0.13
Max 116 108 +29
Min 50 61 -34

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →<6060–6970–7980–8990–99100–109110+Total
<602.78%2.78%
60–692.78%2.78%11.11%16.67%
70–792.78%5.56%11.11%2.78%22.22%
80–8913.89%2.78%8.33%8.33%33.33%
90–998.33%8.33%5.56%22.22%
100–1092.78%2.78%
110+
Total5.56%30.56%36.11%16.67%8.33%2.78%100%

Phoenix Mercury — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 81.11 84.11 -3.00
SD 11.92 11.50 13.29
CV 0.15 0.14
Max 107 118 +21
Min 54 62 -27

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →<6060–6970–7980–8990–99100–109110+Total
<602.78%2.78%
60–692.78%2.78%
70–792.78%2.78%11.11%8.33%8.33%33.33%
80–892.78%25.00%11.11%2.78%41.67%
90–995.56%5.56%11.11%
100–1092.78%2.78%5.56%
110+2.78%2.78%
Total2.78%19.44%41.67%19.44%11.11%5.56%100%

Seattle Storm — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 82.50 78.39 +4.11
SD 11.38 11.60 13.93
CV 0.14 0.15
Max 111 109 +37
Min 51 57 -20

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →<6060–6970–7980–8990–99100–109110+Total
<60
60–692.78%2.78%
70–798.33%8.33%16.67%11.11%44.44%
80–898.33%16.67%8.33%8.33%41.67%
90–992.78%5.56%2.78%11.11%
100–109
110+
Total8.33%16.67%38.89%25.00%11.11%100%

Washington Mystics — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 80.22 75.86 +4.36
SD 7.56 10.50 10.46
CV 0.09 0.14
Max 95 99 +20
Min 65 50 -14

Games Played: 36

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.65 +14.0
Allowed 0.51 -12.3
Differential 0.95 +10.7

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team Conference Division Elo Actual Avg. Wins Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Connecticut Sun 1674 25 25.19 -0.19 53.73% 14 21 23 25 27 29 35
Chicago Sky 1660 26 24.77 +1.23 73.57% 12 20 23 25 27 29 34
Las Vegas Aces 1648 26 24.67 +1.33 74.78% 13 20 23 25 27 29 35
Seattle Storm 1596 22 20.88 +1.12 71.62% 10 16 19 21 23 25 33
Washington Mystics 1552 22 18.60 +3.40 91.60% 7 14 17 19 21 23 30
Minnesota Lynx 1495 14 17.59 -3.59 13.91% 6 13 16 18 20 22 31
Dallas Wings 1486 18 16.87 +1.13 71.94% 6 12 15 17 19 21 28
Phoenix Mercury 1464 15 17.98 -2.98 19.28% 6 13 16 18 20 23 31
New York Liberty 1453 16 12.50 +3.50 92.60% 2 8 11 12 14 17 24
Atlanta Dream 1384 14 13.92 +0.08 58.63% 3 9 12 14 16 19 27
Los Angeles Sparks 1366 13 14.38 -1.38 38.25% 4 10 12 14 16 19 27
Indiana Fever 1222 5 8.65 -3.65 9.47% 0 5 7 9 10 13 20

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team123456789101112
Connecticut Sun35.71%29.15%21.10%8.90%3.28%1.21%0.45%0.14%0.04%<0.01%<0.01%-
Chicago Sky30.01%28.45%23.77%10.77%4.28%1.73%0.68%0.23%0.07%0.02%<0.01%<0.01%
Las Vegas Aces29.22%28.55%23.33%11.12%4.65%1.98%0.76%0.28%0.09%0.02%--
Seattle Storm3.56%8.20%15.70%26.42%18.84%12.34%7.58%4.28%2.03%0.82%0.22%0.01%
Washington Mystics0.63%2.32%5.84%13.69%19.18%18.62%15.28%11.67%7.27%3.90%1.43%0.18%
Phoenix Mercury0.40%1.50%4.16%10.88%16.43%18.08%17.00%13.88%9.43%5.56%2.34%0.34%
Minnesota Lynx0.31%1.17%3.41%9.20%14.86%17.37%17.62%15.07%10.89%6.65%2.98%0.46%
Dallas Wings0.14%0.55%2.09%6.44%11.47%15.20%17.68%17.86%13.99%9.31%4.54%0.74%
Los Angeles Sparks0.02%0.07%0.36%1.35%3.51%6.30%10.10%14.87%20.02%21.72%17.21%4.49%
Atlanta Dream0.01%0.04%0.20%0.97%2.58%4.98%8.32%13.04%19.68%23.20%20.47%6.50%
New York Liberty<0.01%<0.01%0.05%0.27%0.89%2.13%4.31%8.07%14.56%23.07%33.20%13.44%
Indiana Fever---<0.01%0.02%0.07%0.20%0.61%1.92%5.73%17.60%73.85%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 Seed5 Seed6 Seed7 Seed8 SeedMissed Playoffs
Connecticut Sun35.71%29.15%21.10%8.90%3.28%1.21%0.45%0.14%0.05%
Chicago Sky30.01%28.45%23.77%10.77%4.28%1.73%0.68%0.23%0.09%
Las Vegas Aces29.22%28.55%23.33%11.12%4.65%1.98%0.76%0.28%0.12%
Seattle Storm3.56%8.20%15.70%26.42%18.84%12.34%7.58%4.28%3.08%
Washington Mystics0.63%2.32%5.84%13.69%19.18%18.62%15.28%11.67%12.78%
Phoenix Mercury0.40%1.50%4.16%10.88%16.43%18.08%17.00%13.88%17.66%
Minnesota Lynx0.31%1.17%3.41%9.20%14.86%17.37%17.62%15.07%20.98%
Dallas Wings0.14%0.55%2.09%6.44%11.47%15.20%17.68%17.86%28.58%
Los Angeles Sparks0.02%0.07%0.36%1.35%3.51%6.30%10.10%14.87%63.43%
Atlanta Dream0.01%0.04%0.20%0.97%2.58%4.98%8.32%13.04%69.85%
New York Liberty<0.01%<0.01%0.05%0.27%0.89%2.13%4.31%8.07%84.27%
Indiana Fever---<0.01%0.02%0.07%0.20%0.61%99.10%

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt
Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeAway
+9.26%
Clear Edge
54.63%45.37%
Elo Value
Home Edge
26 Elo
0.039 points per Elo point
032.2680
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.94 points
Lean Home
-8+1.26+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd · Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th · Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title-Race Openness
4.2
Open Race
124810
Champion Preseason Odds
24%
Las Vegas Aces, 3rd of 12
LongshotFavorite

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 2.2 · As Expected: 2.2 to 3.03 · Elevated: 3.03 to 4.13 · High Variance: 4.13 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 1.09 · Close: 1.09 to 1.48 · Off Target: 1.48 to 1.93 · Well Off Target: 1.93 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 12 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 12 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.6 · As Expected: 0.6 to 1.44 · Several Outliers: 1.44 to 2.64 · Many Outliers: 2.64 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams
Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 0.63 · As Expected: 0.63 to 1.04 · More Than Expected: 1.04 to 1.67 · Far More Than Expected: 1.67 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.36 wins
As Expected
02.757
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.50
Off Target
01.283
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
92.60%
New York Liberty
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
9.47%
Indiana Fever
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Playoff Teams
Expected
2 of 8
Far More Than Expected
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully
Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge
The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst
The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games
Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Actual percentage of games decided by 15 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.080.150.240.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.74
Stratified
01.003
Interquartile Edge
73%
Lopsided
50%58%65%73%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 94%
93%
No Contest
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
13%
Mostly Decisive
0%17%100%
Blowouts
Expected
25%
Frequent
0%28%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness
How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.21
Predictable
00.211
Matchup Imbalance
0.33
Wide Gaps
00.120.220.340.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.75
Tighter Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.73
Strong Alignment
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
32%
As Expected
0%33%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
29%
As Expected
0%27%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.05 · Within Noise: 0.05 to 0.1 · Above Noise: 0.1 to 0.21 · Well Above Noise: 0.21 and up.
Probability calibration
0.62
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.11
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.98
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.060
Within Noise
00.1030.25

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team Made Playoffs Advanced to Semifinals Advanced to Finals Won Finals
Connecticut Sun 99.95% 81.97% 53.22% 31.65%
Chicago Sky 99.91% 79.65% 48.49% 26.86%
Las Vegas Aces 99.88% 78.14% 45.48% 23.66%
Seattle Storm 96.92% 57.94% 24.76% 10.05%
Washington Mystics 87.22% 34.82% 12.52% 4.34%
Minnesota Lynx 79.02% 21.71% 5.54% 1.37%
Dallas Wings 71.42% 17.66% 4.52% 1.06%
Phoenix Mercury 82.34% 18.89% 4.08% 0.81%
New York Liberty 15.73% 2.55% 0.59% 0.12%
Atlanta Dream 30.15% 3.18% 0.43% 0.05%
Los Angeles Sparks 36.57% 3.45% 0.37% 0.04%
Indiana Fever 0.90% 0.02% - -
Loser →
↓ Winner
Atlanta DreamChicago SkyConnecticut SunDallas WingsIndiana FeverLas Vegas AcesLos Angeles SparksMinnesota LynxNew York LibertyPhoenix MercurySeattle StormWashington Mystics
Atlanta Dream7.7%8.01%7.4%8.30%30.5%0.40%9.2%7.70%55.4%0.07%27.4%0.65%20.0%0.01%34.8%0.80%13.5%3.21%18.8%0.98%
Chicago Sky92.3%8.01%46.2%1.31%81.4%15.86%97.6%0.25%52.1%1.94%93.1%9.47%80.8%16.12%86.6%4.32%84.2%16.39%64.4%10.14%71.8%16.10%
Connecticut Sun92.6%8.30%53.8%1.31%83.8%16.28%98.7%0.30%54.1%1.59%93.8%9.91%82.5%16.44%88.1%4.62%86.3%16.15%67.2%9.38%74.0%15.67%
Dallas Wings69.5%0.40%18.6%15.86%16.2%16.28%100.0%<0.01%19.6%15.92%75.9%0.51%46.4%3.15%59.3%0.15%54.3%3.45%28.4%10.91%36.8%4.78%
Indiana Fever2.4%0.25%1.3%0.30%0.0%<0.01%2.0%0.25%0.0%<0.01%11.1%<0.01%0.0%<0.01%0.0%<0.01%3.1%0.06%0.0%0.02%
Las Vegas Aces90.8%7.70%47.9%1.94%45.9%1.59%80.4%15.92%98.0%0.25%92.2%9.29%79.9%16.19%84.0%4.29%83.1%16.49%61.5%10.29%71.1%15.92%
Los Angeles Sparks44.6%0.07%6.9%9.47%6.2%9.91%24.1%0.51%100.0%<0.01%7.8%9.29%27.4%0.84%26.5%0.03%31.5%0.99%12.4%4.02%17.5%1.41%
Minnesota Lynx72.6%0.65%19.2%16.12%17.5%16.44%53.6%3.15%88.9%<0.01%20.1%16.19%72.6%0.84%62.1%0.23%56.4%4.96%30.4%13.95%39.0%6.49%
New York Liberty80.0%0.01%13.4%4.32%11.9%4.62%40.7%0.15%100.0%<0.01%16.0%4.29%73.5%0.03%37.9%0.23%41.9%0.25%23.2%1.39%29.4%0.43%
Phoenix Mercury65.2%0.80%15.8%16.39%13.7%16.15%45.7%3.45%100.0%<0.01%16.9%16.49%68.5%0.99%43.6%4.96%58.1%0.25%24.9%15.48%32.1%7.36%
Seattle Storm86.5%3.21%35.6%10.14%32.8%9.38%71.6%10.91%96.9%0.06%38.5%10.29%87.6%4.02%69.6%13.95%76.8%1.39%75.1%15.48%59.3%18.08%
Washington Mystics81.2%0.98%28.2%16.10%26.0%15.67%63.2%4.78%100.0%0.02%28.9%15.92%82.5%1.41%61.0%6.49%70.6%0.43%67.9%7.36%40.7%18.08%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Atlanta DreamChicago SkyConnecticut SunDallas WingsIndiana FeverLas Vegas AcesLos Angeles SparksMinnesota LynxNew York LibertyPhoenix MercurySeattle StormWashington Mystics
Atlanta Dream7.8%0.60%6.3%0.62%31.2%0.14%8.3%0.57%60.0%0.03%25.1%0.19%46.7%0.01%28.7%0.18%12.9%0.52%19.3%0.32%
Chicago Sky92.2%0.60%47.2%20.87%81.3%3.73%100.0%<0.01%52.1%21.25%94.7%0.68%82.0%4.95%87.2%0.45%84.6%4.35%64.0%14.74%71.8%8.04%
Connecticut Sun93.7%0.62%52.8%20.87%84.6%4.08%100.0%<0.01%55.6%19.99%94.9%0.71%82.8%5.26%88.5%0.46%85.8%4.59%67.2%16.43%74.3%8.94%
Dallas Wings68.8%0.14%18.7%3.73%15.4%4.08%100.0%<0.01%19.3%3.72%73.9%0.16%48.6%0.96%50.0%0.11%54.7%0.84%29.0%2.27%37.1%1.64%
Las Vegas Aces91.7%0.57%47.9%21.25%44.4%19.99%80.7%3.72%93.6%0.63%81.2%4.66%85.5%0.41%84.2%4.08%61.5%14.67%70.1%8.17%
Los Angeles Sparks40.0%0.03%5.3%0.68%5.1%0.71%26.1%0.16%6.4%0.63%23.6%0.19%42.9%0.01%28.2%0.17%9.6%0.52%15.1%0.36%
Minnesota Lynx74.9%0.19%18.0%4.95%17.2%5.26%51.4%0.96%100.0%<0.01%18.8%4.66%76.4%0.19%56.0%0.18%56.6%0.99%29.4%2.48%37.2%1.84%
New York Liberty53.3%0.01%12.8%0.45%11.5%0.46%50.0%0.11%14.5%0.41%57.1%0.01%44.0%0.18%51.1%0.14%23.2%0.50%29.5%0.28%
Phoenix Mercury71.3%0.18%15.4%4.35%14.2%4.59%45.3%0.84%100.0%<0.01%15.8%4.08%71.8%0.17%43.4%0.99%48.9%0.14%23.9%2.07%33.5%1.49%
Seattle Storm87.1%0.52%36.0%14.74%32.8%16.43%71.0%2.27%38.5%14.67%90.4%0.52%70.6%2.48%76.8%0.50%76.1%2.07%58.1%3.74%
Washington Mystics80.7%0.32%28.2%8.04%25.7%8.94%62.9%1.64%100.0%<0.01%29.9%8.17%84.9%0.36%62.8%1.84%70.5%0.28%66.5%1.49%41.9%3.74%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Atlanta DreamChicago SkyConnecticut SunDallas WingsLas Vegas AcesLos Angeles SparksMinnesota LynxNew York LibertyPhoenix MercurySeattle StormWashington Mystics
Atlanta Dream11.4%0.13%8.9%0.12%33.3%<0.01%8.2%0.08%0.0%<0.01%37.5%<0.01%18.4%0.05%9.1%0.02%
Chicago Sky88.6%0.13%46.7%19.20%77.4%1.17%52.7%14.83%91.4%0.09%80.8%1.40%82.5%0.17%82.6%1.09%63.6%7.03%68.9%3.38%
Connecticut Sun91.1%0.12%53.3%19.20%81.8%1.35%55.0%17.72%95.7%0.12%79.7%1.62%86.8%0.15%85.8%1.17%65.2%8.05%71.5%3.71%
Dallas Wings66.7%<0.01%22.6%1.17%18.2%1.35%20.3%1.03%50.0%0.01%44.5%0.11%37.5%<0.01%57.7%0.07%29.7%0.50%33.2%0.27%
Las Vegas Aces91.8%0.08%47.3%14.83%45.0%17.72%79.7%1.03%89.1%0.06%77.3%1.27%78.2%0.14%81.6%0.95%60.4%6.36%66.5%3.03%
Los Angeles Sparks8.6%0.09%4.3%0.12%50.0%0.01%10.9%0.06%20.0%0.01%100.0%<0.01%60.0%<0.01%9.8%0.04%11.5%0.03%
Minnesota Lynx100.0%<0.01%19.2%1.40%20.3%1.62%55.5%0.11%22.7%1.27%80.0%0.01%61.5%0.01%54.8%0.09%32.9%0.69%37.5%0.32%
New York Liberty17.5%0.17%13.2%0.15%62.5%<0.01%21.8%0.14%0.0%<0.01%38.5%0.01%42.9%<0.01%30.4%0.07%25.0%0.03%
Phoenix Mercury62.5%<0.01%17.4%1.09%14.2%1.17%42.3%0.07%18.4%0.95%40.0%<0.01%45.2%0.09%57.1%<0.01%27.4%0.45%29.3%0.23%
Seattle Storm81.6%0.05%36.4%7.03%34.8%8.05%70.3%0.50%39.6%6.36%90.2%0.04%67.1%0.69%69.6%0.07%72.6%0.45%59.9%1.51%
Washington Mystics90.9%0.02%31.1%3.38%28.5%3.71%66.8%0.27%33.5%3.03%88.5%0.03%62.5%0.32%75.0%0.03%70.7%0.23%40.1%1.51%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team Advanced to Semifinals Advanced to Finals Won Finals Actual Outcome
Connecticut Sun 83.73% 47.58% 29.17% Eliminated in Finals
Las Vegas Aces 91.09% 58.00% 27.34% Won Finals
Chicago Sky 86.04% 46.07% 27.12% Eliminated in Semifinals
Seattle Storm 60.66% 26.47% 10.11% Eliminated in Semifinals
Washington Mystics 39.34% 14.24% 4.41% Eliminated in Quarterfinals
Dallas Wings 16.27% 3.94% 1.18% Eliminated in Quarterfinals
New York Liberty 13.96% 2.40% 0.56% Eliminated in Quarterfinals
Loser →
↓ Winner
Atlanta DreamChicago SkyConnecticut SunDallas WingsLas Vegas AcesNew York LibertySeattle StormWashington Mystics
Atlanta Dream8.9%100.00%
Chicago Sky86.0%100.00%
Connecticut Sun83.7%100.00%
Dallas Wings16.3%100.00%
Las Vegas Aces91.1%100.00%
New York Liberty14.0%100.00%
Seattle Storm60.7%100.00%
Washington Mystics39.3%100.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Atlanta DreamChicago SkyConnecticut SunDallas WingsLas Vegas AcesNew York LibertySeattle StormWashington Mystics
Atlanta Dream12.7%5.44%17.3%3.48%
Chicago Sky48.2%72.01%81.1%14.03%
Connecticut Sun51.8%72.01%87.5%11.72%
Dallas Wings18.9%14.03%57.8%2.24%
Las Vegas Aces60.7%55.22%68.3%35.86%
New York Liberty12.5%11.72%42.2%2.24%
Seattle Storm87.3%5.44%39.3%55.22%
Washington Mystics82.7%3.48%31.7%35.86%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Atlanta DreamChicago SkyConnecticut SunDallas WingsLas Vegas AcesNew York LibertySeattle StormWashington Mystics
Atlanta Dream9.9%0.59%6.2%0.61%33.3%0.06%33.3%0.03%
Chicago Sky90.1%0.59%53.8%26.81%62.4%12.23%70.2%6.44%
Connecticut Sun93.8%0.61%55.7%27.53%65.9%12.57%72.4%6.87%
Dallas Wings66.7%0.06%25.5%2.28%31.2%1.02%40.8%0.58%
Las Vegas Aces46.2%26.81%44.3%27.53%74.5%2.28%78.3%1.37%
New York Liberty66.7%0.03%21.7%1.37%21.7%0.65%28.6%0.35%
Seattle Storm37.6%12.23%34.1%12.57%68.8%1.02%78.3%0.65%
Washington Mystics29.8%6.44%27.6%6.87%59.2%0.58%71.4%0.35%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Connecticut Sun 29.17% chance to win
Quarterfinals
vs. Dallas Wings
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
83.73%
Semifinals
vs. Chicago Sky
Matchup
78.44%
Win Prob
51.82%
Finals
vs. Las Vegas Aces
Matchup
52.61%
Win Prob
55.74%
Las Vegas Aces 27.34% chance to win
Quarterfinals
vs. Atlanta Dream
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
91.09%
Semifinals
vs. Seattle Storm
Matchup
57.76%
Win Prob
60.66%
Finals
vs. Chicago Sky
Matchup
45.28%
Win Prob
46.17%
Chicago Sky 27.12% chance to win
Quarterfinals
vs. New York Liberty
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
86.04%
Semifinals
vs. Connecticut Sun
Matchup
75.30%
Win Prob
48.18%
Finals
vs. Las Vegas Aces
Matchup
53.23%
Win Prob
53.83%
Seattle Storm 10.11% chance to win
Quarterfinals
vs. Washington Mystics
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
60.66%
Semifinals
vs. Las Vegas Aces
Matchup
82.06%
Win Prob
39.34%
Finals
vs. Chicago Sky
Matchup
45.56%
Win Prob
37.64%
Washington Mystics 4.41% chance to win
Quarterfinals
vs. Seattle Storm
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
39.34%
Semifinals
vs. Las Vegas Aces
Matchup
79.82%
Win Prob
31.69%
Finals
vs. Chicago Sky
Matchup
43.46%
Win Prob
29.76%
Dallas Wings 1.18% chance to win
Quarterfinals
vs. Connecticut Sun
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
16.27%
Semifinals
vs. Chicago Sky
Matchup
67.19%
Win Prob
18.89%
Finals
vs. Las Vegas Aces
Matchup
49.49%
Win Prob
25.50%
New York Liberty 0.56% chance to win
Quarterfinals
vs. Chicago Sky
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
13.96%
Semifinals
vs. Connecticut Sun
Matchup
60.67%
Win Prob
12.45%
Finals
vs. Las Vegas Aces
Matchup
53.12%
Win Prob
21.72%
Atlanta Dream 0.13% chance to win
Quarterfinals
vs. Las Vegas Aces
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
8.91%
Semifinals
vs. Seattle Storm
Matchup
53.33%
Win Prob
12.67%
Finals
vs. Chicago Sky
Matchup
46.46%
Win Prob
9.95%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
2022-05-07 @ Dallas Wings W 66-59 1386.77 1458.48 35.47% 64.53% +12.82 1-0
2022-05-11 Los Angeles Sparks W 77-75 1399.59 1479.85 43.14% 56.86% +6.04 2-0
2022-05-13 Las Vegas Aces L 73-96 1405.63 1606.03 27.53% 72.47% -9.92 2-1
2022-05-15 @ Indiana Fever W 85-79 1395.71 1365.03 49.77% 50.23% +9.24 3-1
2022-05-17 @ Indiana Fever W 101-79 1404.95 1355.79 52.43% 47.57% +16.76 4-1
2022-05-20 Washington Mystics L 73-78 1421.71 1487.50 45.19% 54.81% -7.59 4-2
2022-05-24 @ Washington Mystics L 50-70 1414.12 1486.19 35.42% 64.58% -11.90 4-3
2022-05-29 Phoenix Mercury W 81-54 1402.22 1519.35 38.02% 61.98% +24.19 5-3
2022-06-01 Minnesota Lynx W 84-76 1426.41 1493.51 45.00% 55.00% +11.68 6-3
2022-06-03 Chicago Sky L 65-73 1438.09 1607.05 31.28% 68.72% -6.64 6-4
2022-06-05 Indiana Fever W 75-66 1431.45 1317.55 69.88% 30.12% +6.78 7-4
2022-06-07 @ Seattle Storm L 60-72 1438.23 1540.04 31.61% 68.39% -8.22 7-5
2022-06-10 @ Phoenix Mercury L 88-90 1430.01 1494.42 36.44% 63.56% -3.87 7-6
2022-06-15 @ Connecticut Sun L 92-105 1426.14 1654.64 18.23% 81.77% -4.93 7-7
2022-06-17 @ Chicago Sky L 100-106 1421.21 1625.12 20.43% 79.57% -3.76 7-8
2022-06-21 Dallas Wings W 80-75 1417.45 1498.20 43.07% 56.93% +9.56 8-8
2022-06-24 New York Liberty L 77-89 1427.01 1405.45 57.68% 42.32% -15.01 8-9
2022-06-26 Connecticut Sun L 61-72 1412.00 1640.21 24.45% 75.55% -6.09 8-10
2022-06-28 @ Washington Mystics L 74-92 1405.91 1496.63 33.01% 66.99% -10.52 8-11
2022-06-30 @ New York Liberty W 92-81 1395.39 1420.46 41.82% 58.18% +14.49 9-11
2022-07-03 Seattle Storm W 90-76 1409.88 1576.30 31.60% 68.40% +19.22 10-11
2022-07-06 Washington Mystics L 66-85 1429.10 1504.15 43.87% 56.13% -14.36 10-12
2022-07-12 @ Chicago Sky L 75-90 1414.74 1657.96 17.00% 83.00% -4.94 10-13
2022-07-15 Connecticut Sun L 68-93 1409.80 1624.91 25.87% 74.13% -9.72 10-14
2022-07-17 @ Phoenix Mercury W 85-75 1400.08 1482.90 34.02% 65.98% +15.67 11-14
2022-07-19 @ Las Vegas Aces W 92-76 1415.75 1638.18 18.75% 81.25% +24.41 12-14
2022-07-21 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 78-85 1440.16 1434.29 46.21% 53.79% -9.18 12-15
2022-07-24 @ Seattle Storm L 72-82 1430.98 1568.94 27.29% 72.71% -6.48 12-16
2022-07-28 Minnesota Lynx L 85-92 1424.50 1489.06 45.36% 54.64% -9.02 12-17
2022-07-30 Dallas Wings L 68-81 1415.48 1458.57 48.44% 51.56% -13.11 12-18
2022-08-03 Indiana Fever W 91-81 1402.37 1237.75 75.64% 24.36% +5.78 13-18
2022-08-05 Los Angeles Sparks W 88-86 1408.15 1393.86 56.66% 43.34% +4.60 14-18
2022-08-07 @ Minnesota Lynx L 71-81 1412.75 1497.43 33.78% 66.22% -8.02 14-19
2022-08-09 @ Las Vegas Aces L 90-97 1404.73 1622.55 19.16% 80.84% -3.81 14-20
2022-08-12 New York Liberty L 70-80 1400.92 1435.65 49.65% 50.35% -11.79 14-21
2022-08-14 @ New York Liberty L 83-87 1389.13 1447.44 37.25% 62.75% -5.59 14-22
2022-05-06 Los Angeles Sparks L 91-98 1608.08 1456.18 74.27% 25.73% -14.76 0-1
2022-05-11 New York Liberty W 83-50 1593.32 1391.99 79.33% 20.67% +8.92 1-1
2022-05-14 @ Minnesota Lynx W 82-78 1602.24 1516.33 57.66% 42.34% +6.36 2-1
2022-05-18 @ Seattle Storm L 71-74 1608.60 1544.75 54.53% 45.47% -7.09 2-2
2022-05-22 @ Washington Mystics W 82-73 1601.51 1495.09 60.51% 39.49% +8.90 3-2
2022-05-24 Indiana Fever W 95-90 1610.41 1329.89 85.82% 14.18% +2.38 4-2
2022-05-28 Las Vegas Aces L 76-83 1612.79 1651.37 49.09% 50.91% -9.76 4-3
2022-05-31 Phoenix Mercury W 73-70 1603.03 1495.16 69.14% 30.86% +4.02 5-3
2022-06-03 @ Atlanta Dream W 73-65 1607.05 1438.09 68.72% 31.28% +6.64 6-3
2022-06-05 Washington Mystics W 91-82 1613.69 1489.83 71.07% 28.93% +6.52 7-3
2022-06-08 @ Washington Mystics L 82-84 1620.21 1483.31 64.62% 35.38% -6.86 7-4
2022-06-10 @ Connecticut Sun W 83-79 1613.35 1663.91 38.30% 61.70% +9.26 8-4
2022-06-12 @ New York Liberty W 88-86 1622.61 1386.33 76.40% 23.60% +2.51 9-4
2022-06-17 Atlanta Dream W 106-100 1625.12 1421.21 79.57% 20.43% +3.76 10-4
2022-06-19 @ Indiana Fever L 87-89 1628.88 1298.26 84.78% 15.22% -9.00 10-5
2022-06-21 @ Las Vegas Aces W 104-95 1619.88 1681.72 36.78% 63.22% +14.24 11-5
2022-06-23 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 82-59 1634.12 1437.76 72.00% 28.00% +10.08 12-5
2022-06-26 Minnesota Lynx W 88-85 1644.20 1462.63 77.40% 22.60% +2.94 13-5
2022-06-29 Connecticut Sun W 91-83 1647.14 1646.30 54.75% 45.25% +9.61 14-5
2022-07-02 Phoenix Mercury W 91-75 1656.75 1493.24 75.53% 24.47% +7.36 15-5
2022-07-06 @ Minnesota Lynx L 78-81 1664.11 1502.87 67.75% 32.25% -8.82 15-6
2022-07-07 @ Indiana Fever W 93-84 1655.29 1274.25 88.16% 11.84% +2.67 16-6
2022-07-12 Atlanta Dream W 90-75 1657.96 1414.74 83.00% 17.00% +4.94 17-6
2022-07-14 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 80-68 1662.90 1435.96 75.41% 24.59% +6.40 18-6
2022-07-16 @ Dallas Wings W 89-81 1669.30 1472.40 72.07% 27.93% +5.93 19-6
2022-07-20 Seattle Storm W 78-74 1675.23 1592.81 65.93% 34.07% +5.12 20-6
2022-07-22 Dallas Wings W 89-83 1680.35 1466.47 80.49% 19.51% +3.59 21-6
2022-07-23 @ New York Liberty L 80-83 1683.94 1381.83 82.54% 17.46% -10.74 21-7
2022-07-29 New York Liberty W 89-81 1673.20 1392.57 85.83% 14.17% +3.01 22-7
2022-07-31 @ Connecticut Sun W 95-92 1676.21 1650.46 49.06% 50.94% +6.63 23-7
2022-08-02 Dallas Wings L 78-84 1682.84 1471.69 80.24% 19.76% -14.76 23-8
2022-08-05 Washington Mystics W 93-83 1668.08 1561.72 68.95% 31.05% +7.37 24-8
2022-08-07 Connecticut Sun W 94-91 1675.45 1658.60 57.02% 42.98% +5.59 25-8
2022-08-09 Seattle Storm L 100-111 1681.04 1570.34 69.49% 30.51% -17.30 25-9
2022-08-11 @ Las Vegas Aces L 78-89 1663.74 1626.36 50.74% 49.26% -12.64 25-10
2022-08-14 @ Phoenix Mercury W 82-67 1651.10 1473.15 69.82% 30.18% +8.78 26-10
2022-05-07 @ New York Liberty L 79-81 1626.16 1383.81 77.02% 22.98% -8.18 0-1
2022-05-14 Los Angeles Sparks W 77-60 1617.98 1473.81 73.41% 26.59% +8.23 1-1
2022-05-17 @ New York Liberty W 92-65 1626.21 1362.22 79.15% 20.85% +8.14 2-1
2022-05-20 Indiana Fever W 94-85 1634.35 1339.04 86.83% 13.17% +2.97 3-1
2022-05-22 @ Indiana Fever W 92-70 1637.32 1336.07 82.47% 17.53% +6.17 4-1
2022-05-24 Dallas Wings L 77-85 1643.49 1483.92 75.11% 24.89% -15.95 4-2
2022-05-26 Dallas Wings W 99-68 1627.54 1499.87 71.52% 28.48% +11.91 5-2
2022-05-28 Washington Mystics W 79-71 1639.45 1498.09 73.10% 26.90% +5.71 6-2
2022-05-31 @ Las Vegas Aces L 81-89 1645.16 1661.13 43.10% 56.90% -9.15 6-3
2022-06-02 @ Las Vegas Aces W 97-90 1636.01 1670.28 40.54% 59.46% +11.81 7-3
2022-06-03 @ Phoenix Mercury W 92-88 1647.82 1491.15 67.18% 32.82% +4.93 8-3
2022-06-05 @ Seattle Storm W 93-86 1652.75 1547.93 60.29% 39.71% +7.89 9-3
2022-06-08 Indiana Fever W 88-69 1660.64 1310.76 90.02% 9.98% +3.27 10-3
2022-06-10 Chicago Sky L 79-83 1663.91 1613.35 61.70% 38.30% -9.27 10-4
2022-06-15 Atlanta Dream W 105-92 1654.64 1426.14 81.77% 18.23% +4.94 11-4
2022-06-17 Seattle Storm W 82-71 1659.58 1563.65 67.65% 32.35% +8.05 12-4
2022-06-19 @ Washington Mystics L 63-71 1667.63 1492.40 69.49% 30.51% -14.76 12-5
2022-06-22 New York Liberty L 77-81 1652.87 1392.78 84.33% 15.67% -12.66 12-6
2022-06-26 @ Atlanta Dream W 72-61 1640.21 1412.00 75.55% 24.45% +6.09 13-6
2022-06-29 @ Chicago Sky L 83-91 1646.30 1647.14 45.25% 54.75% -9.61 13-7
2022-07-03 Washington Mystics W 74-72 1636.69 1507.15 71.74% 28.26% +3.00 14-7
2022-07-05 @ Dallas Wings L 71-82 1639.69 1450.89 71.12% 28.88% -17.72 14-8
2022-07-13 @ Indiana Fever W 89-81 1621.97 1271.58 86.19% 13.81% +2.94 15-8
2022-07-15 @ Atlanta Dream W 93-68 1624.91 1409.80 74.13% 25.87% +9.71 16-8
2022-07-17 Las Vegas Aces L 83-91 1634.62 1626.32 55.81% 44.19% -11.85 16-9
2022-07-19 New York Liberty W 82-63 1622.77 1393.73 81.82% 18.18% +5.95 17-9
2022-07-22 @ Minnesota Lynx W 94-84 1628.72 1504.78 62.90% 37.10% +8.81 18-9
2022-07-24 @ Minnesota Lynx W 86-79 1637.53 1495.97 65.23% 34.77% +6.91 19-9
2022-07-28 Seattle Storm W 88-83 1644.44 1575.42 64.18% 35.82% +6.02 20-9
2022-07-31 Chicago Sky L 92-95 1650.46 1676.21 50.94% 49.06% -6.63 20-10
2022-08-02 Phoenix Mercury W 87-63 1643.83 1474.81 76.11% 23.89% +8.79 21-10
2022-08-04 Phoenix Mercury W 77-64 1652.62 1466.02 77.90% 22.10% +5.98 22-10
2022-08-07 @ Chicago Sky L 91-94 1658.60 1675.45 42.98% 57.02% -5.59 22-11
2022-08-09 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 97-71 1653.01 1399.11 78.18% 21.82% +8.36 23-11
2022-08-11 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 93-69 1661.37 1390.75 79.77% 20.23% +7.44 24-11
2022-08-14 Minnesota Lynx W 90-83 1668.81 1499.32 76.16% 23.84% +4.74 25-11
2022-05-07 Atlanta Dream L 59-66 1458.48 1386.77 64.53% 35.47% -12.83 0-1
2022-05-13 @ Washington Mystics W 94-86 1445.65 1483.95 39.98% 60.02% +12.75 1-1
2022-05-15 @ New York Liberty W 81-71 1458.40 1372.27 57.69% 42.31% +10.05 2-1
2022-05-17 Washington Mystics L 68-84 1468.45 1471.20 54.24% 45.76% -16.29 2-2
2022-05-19 @ Phoenix Mercury W 94-84 1452.16 1556.31 31.32% 68.68% +16.31 3-2
2022-05-21 Minnesota Lynx W 94-78 1468.47 1510.61 48.58% 51.42% +15.45 4-2
2022-05-24 @ Connecticut Sun W 85-77 1483.92 1643.49 24.89% 75.11% +15.95 5-2
2022-05-26 @ Connecticut Sun L 68-99 1499.87 1627.54 28.48% 71.52% -11.91 5-3
2022-05-31 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 91-93 1487.96 1451.85 50.55% 49.45% -5.37 5-4
2022-06-03 @ Seattle Storm W 68-51 1482.59 1568.48 33.62% 66.38% +20.55 6-4
2022-06-05 @ Las Vegas Aces L 78-84 1503.14 1658.47 25.35% 74.65% -4.66 6-5
2022-06-10 Seattle Storm L 88-89 1498.48 1548.26 47.48% 52.52% -3.57 6-6
2022-06-12 Seattle Storm L 79-84 1494.91 1551.83 46.46% 53.54% -7.80 6-7
2022-06-15 Las Vegas Aces L 84-92 1487.11 1671.18 29.45% 70.55% -6.25 6-8
2022-06-17 Phoenix Mercury W 93-88 1480.86 1503.40 51.40% 48.60% +8.16 7-8
2022-06-19 Los Angeles Sparks W 92-82 1489.02 1440.97 61.36% 38.64% +9.18 8-8
2022-06-21 @ Atlanta Dream L 75-80 1498.20 1417.45 56.93% 43.07% -9.56 8-9
2022-06-23 Indiana Fever W 94-68 1488.64 1307.26 77.38% 22.62% +8.66 9-9
2022-06-25 Phoenix Mercury L 72-83 1497.30 1465.23 59.15% 40.85% -14.73 9-10
2022-06-28 @ Minnesota Lynx L 64-92 1482.57 1459.69 48.65% 51.35% -19.34 9-11
2022-07-01 Los Angeles Sparks L 89-97 1463.23 1438.62 58.11% 41.89% -12.34 9-12
2022-07-05 Connecticut Sun W 82-71 1450.89 1639.69 28.88% 71.12% +17.71 10-12
2022-07-12 @ Seattle Storm L 74-83 1468.60 1582.64 30.11% 69.89% -6.78 10-13
2022-07-14 @ Minnesota Lynx W 92-87 1461.82 1522.01 37.00% 63.00% +10.58 11-13
2022-07-16 Chicago Sky L 81-89 1472.40 1669.30 27.93% 72.07% -5.93 11-14
2022-07-22 @ Chicago Sky L 83-89 1466.47 1680.35 19.51% 80.49% -3.59 11-15
2022-07-24 @ Indiana Fever W 96-86 1462.88 1252.50 73.60% 26.40% +6.26 12-15
2022-07-28 Washington Mystics L 77-87 1469.14 1539.63 44.52% 55.48% -10.57 12-16
2022-07-30 @ Atlanta Dream W 81-68 1458.57 1415.48 51.56% 48.44% +13.12 13-16
2022-08-02 @ Chicago Sky W 84-78 1471.69 1682.84 19.76% 80.24% +14.76 14-16
2022-08-04 Las Vegas Aces W 82-80 1486.45 1618.68 36.00% 64.00% +6.80 15-16
2022-08-06 Indiana Fever W 95-91 1493.25 1231.96 84.42% 15.58% +2.34 16-16
2022-08-08 New York Liberty W 86-77 1495.59 1422.31 64.74% 35.26% +7.94 17-16
2022-08-10 New York Liberty L 73-91 1503.53 1414.37 66.80% 33.20% -21.28 17-17
2022-08-12 @ Phoenix Mercury L 74-86 1482.25 1460.53 48.48% 51.52% -12.61 17-18
2022-08-14 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 116-88 1469.64 1383.31 57.72% 42.28% +16.80 18-18
2022-05-06 @ Washington Mystics L 70-84 1359.79 1438.28 34.58% 65.42% -9.71 0-1
2022-05-08 Los Angeles Sparks L 77-87 1350.08 1470.94 37.52% 62.48% -8.91 0-2
2022-05-10 Minnesota Lynx W 82-76 1341.17 1529.40 28.95% 71.05% +13.07 1-2
2022-05-13 @ New York Liberty W 92-86 1354.24 1383.07 41.30% 58.70% +10.79 2-2
2022-05-15 Atlanta Dream L 79-85 1365.03 1395.71 50.23% 49.77% -9.24 2-3
2022-05-17 Atlanta Dream L 79-101 1355.79 1404.95 47.57% 52.43% -16.75 2-4
2022-05-20 @ Connecticut Sun L 85-94 1339.04 1634.35 13.17% 86.83% -2.97 2-5
2022-05-22 Connecticut Sun L 70-92 1336.07 1637.32 17.53% 82.47% -6.18 2-6
2022-05-24 @ Chicago Sky L 90-95 1329.89 1610.41 14.18% 85.82% -2.38 2-7
2022-05-27 Los Angeles Sparks W 101-96 1327.51 1455.90 36.51% 63.49% +10.67 3-7
2022-05-31 Washington Mystics L 75-87 1338.18 1492.37 33.14% 66.86% -8.63 3-8
2022-06-01 @ New York Liberty L 74-87 1329.55 1336.75 44.35% 55.65% -12.00 3-9
2022-06-05 @ Atlanta Dream L 66-75 1317.55 1431.45 30.12% 69.88% -6.79 3-10
2022-06-08 @ Connecticut Sun L 69-88 1310.76 1660.64 9.98% 90.02% -3.27 3-11
2022-06-10 New York Liberty L 83-97 1307.49 1373.64 45.14% 54.86% -12.68 3-12
2022-06-12 @ Minnesota Lynx W 84-80 1294.81 1452.17 25.13% 74.87% +11.24 4-12
2022-06-15 Phoenix Mercury L 80-93 1306.05 1495.60 28.79% 71.21% -7.79 4-13
2022-06-19 Chicago Sky W 89-87 1298.26 1628.88 15.22% 84.78% +9.00 5-13
2022-06-23 @ Dallas Wings L 68-94 1307.26 1488.64 22.62% 77.38% -8.66 5-14
2022-06-27 @ Phoenix Mercury L 71-83 1298.60 1479.97 22.62% 77.38% -5.89 5-15
2022-06-29 @ Phoenix Mercury L 78-99 1292.71 1485.85 21.46% 78.54% -7.38 5-16
2022-07-01 @ Seattle Storm L 57-73 1285.33 1572.17 13.74% 86.26% -4.13 5-17
2022-07-05 Seattle Storm L 73-95 1281.20 1557.08 19.74% 80.26% -6.95 5-18
2022-07-07 Chicago Sky L 84-93 1274.25 1655.29 11.84% 88.16% -2.67 5-19
2022-07-13 Connecticut Sun L 81-89 1271.58 1621.97 13.81% 86.19% -2.93 5-20
2022-07-15 Minnesota Lynx L 77-87 1268.65 1511.43 22.94% 77.06% -5.45 5-21
2022-07-17 @ Seattle Storm L 65-81 1263.20 1589.43 11.27% 88.73% -3.39 5-22
2022-07-19 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 79-86 1259.81 1429.56 23.82% 76.18% -4.73 5-23
2022-07-21 @ Las Vegas Aces L 77-90 1255.08 1613.77 9.53% 90.47% -2.58 5-24
2022-07-24 Dallas Wings L 86-96 1252.50 1462.88 26.40% 73.60% -6.27 5-25
2022-07-29 Las Vegas Aces L 72-93 1246.23 1623.84 12.05% 87.95% -4.14 5-26
2022-07-31 Las Vegas Aces L 69-94 1242.09 1627.98 11.55% 88.45% -4.34 5-27
2022-08-03 @ Atlanta Dream L 81-91 1237.75 1402.37 24.36% 75.64% -5.79 5-28
2022-08-06 @ Dallas Wings L 91-95 1231.96 1493.25 15.58% 84.42% -2.34 5-29
2022-08-12 Washington Mystics L 70-82 1229.62 1544.50 16.43% 83.57% -4.27 5-30
2022-08-14 @ Washington Mystics L 83-95 1225.35 1548.77 11.43% 88.57% -2.97 5-31
2022-05-06 @ Phoenix Mercury W 106-88 1598.71 1555.99 51.51% 48.49% +15.45 1-0
2022-05-08 Seattle Storm W 85-74 1614.16 1580.65 59.35% 40.65% +10.13 2-0
2022-05-10 @ Washington Mystics L 76-89 1624.29 1465.70 67.42% 32.58% -18.26 2-1
2022-05-13 @ Atlanta Dream W 96-73 1606.03 1405.63 72.47% 27.53% +9.92 3-1
2022-05-17 Phoenix Mercury W 86-74 1615.95 1566.31 61.57% 38.43% +10.00 4-1
2022-05-19 Minnesota Lynx W 93-87 1625.95 1516.25 69.36% 30.64% +5.63 5-1
2022-05-21 Phoenix Mercury W 100-80 1631.58 1540.00 67.10% 32.90% +11.05 6-1
2022-05-23 Los Angeles Sparks W 104-76 1642.63 1455.04 78.00% 22.00% +8.74 7-1
2022-05-28 @ Chicago Sky W 83-76 1651.37 1612.79 50.91% 49.09% +9.76 8-1
2022-05-31 Connecticut Sun W 89-81 1661.13 1645.16 56.90% 43.10% +9.15 9-1
2022-06-02 Connecticut Sun L 90-97 1670.28 1636.01 59.46% 40.54% -11.81 9-2
2022-06-05 Dallas Wings W 84-78 1658.47 1503.14 74.65% 25.35% +4.66 10-2
2022-06-11 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 89-72 1663.13 1449.02 74.02% 25.98% +8.05 11-2
2022-06-15 @ Dallas Wings W 92-84 1671.18 1487.11 70.55% 29.45% +6.25 12-2
2022-06-19 Minnesota Lynx W 96-85 1677.43 1436.91 82.78% 17.22% +4.29 13-2
2022-06-21 Chicago Sky L 95-104 1681.72 1619.88 63.22% 36.78% -14.24 13-3
2022-06-25 Washington Mystics L 86-87 1667.48 1490.86 76.90% 23.10% -5.78 13-4
2022-06-27 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 79-73 1661.70 1443.31 74.49% 25.51% +4.70 14-4
2022-06-29 @ Seattle Storm L 78-88 1666.40 1557.73 60.82% 39.18% -14.45 14-5
2022-07-01 @ Minnesota Lynx W 91-85 1651.95 1479.02 69.21% 30.79% +5.67 15-5
2022-07-03 @ Minnesota Lynx L 71-102 1657.62 1473.35 70.58% 29.42% -29.52 15-6
2022-07-06 New York Liberty L 107-116 1628.10 1396.69 82.02% 17.98% -18.47 15-7
2022-07-12 @ New York Liberty W 107-101 1609.63 1410.43 72.33% 27.67% +5.09 16-7
2022-07-14 @ New York Liberty W 108-74 1614.72 1405.34 73.49% 26.51% +11.60 17-7
2022-07-17 @ Connecticut Sun W 91-83 1626.32 1634.62 44.19% 55.81% +11.86 18-7
2022-07-19 Atlanta Dream L 76-92 1638.18 1415.75 81.25% 18.75% -24.41 18-8
2022-07-21 Indiana Fever W 90-77 1613.77 1255.08 90.47% 9.53% +2.58 19-8
2022-07-23 Los Angeles Sparks W 84-66 1616.35 1443.47 76.51% 23.49% +7.49 20-8
2022-07-29 @ Indiana Fever W 93-72 1623.84 1246.23 87.95% 12.05% +4.14 21-8
2022-07-31 @ Indiana Fever W 94-69 1627.98 1242.09 88.45% 11.55% +4.34 22-8
2022-08-02 @ Washington Mystics L 73-83 1632.32 1548.08 57.43% 42.57% -13.64 22-9
2022-08-04 @ Dallas Wings L 80-82 1618.68 1486.45 64.00% 36.00% -6.79 22-10
2022-08-07 @ Seattle Storm W 89-81 1611.89 1581.00 49.80% 50.20% +10.66 23-10
2022-08-09 Atlanta Dream W 97-90 1622.55 1404.73 80.84% 19.16% +3.81 24-10
2022-08-11 Chicago Sky W 89-78 1626.36 1663.74 49.26% 50.74% +12.63 25-10
2022-08-14 Seattle Storm W 109-100 1638.99 1604.99 59.42% 40.58% +9.15 26-10
2022-05-06 @ Chicago Sky W 98-91 1456.18 1608.08 25.73% 74.27% +14.76 1-0
2022-05-08 @ Indiana Fever W 87-77 1470.94 1350.08 62.48% 37.52% +8.91 2-0
2022-05-11 @ Atlanta Dream L 75-77 1479.85 1399.59 56.86% 43.14% -6.04 2-1
2022-05-14 @ Connecticut Sun L 60-77 1473.81 1617.98 26.59% 73.41% -8.23 2-2
2022-05-17 Minnesota Lynx L 84-87 1465.58 1509.97 48.25% 51.75% -6.28 2-3
2022-05-20 @ Seattle Storm L 80-83 1459.30 1551.84 32.77% 67.23% -4.26 2-4
2022-05-23 @ Las Vegas Aces L 76-104 1455.04 1642.63 22.00% 78.00% -8.75 2-5
2022-05-25 Phoenix Mercury W 99-94 1446.29 1528.95 42.80% 57.20% +9.61 3-5
2022-05-27 @ Indiana Fever L 96-101 1455.90 1327.51 63.49% 36.51% -10.66 3-6
2022-05-29 @ Minnesota Lynx W 85-83 1445.24 1500.12 37.72% 62.28% +6.61 4-6
2022-05-31 Dallas Wings W 93-91 1451.85 1487.96 49.45% 50.55% +5.37 5-6
2022-06-05 @ Phoenix Mercury L 74-81 1457.22 1486.22 41.27% 58.73% -8.20 5-7
2022-06-11 Las Vegas Aces L 72-89 1449.02 1663.13 25.98% 74.02% -8.05 5-8
2022-06-19 @ Dallas Wings L 82-92 1440.97 1489.02 38.64% 61.36% -9.17 5-9
2022-06-21 Washington Mystics W 84-82 1431.80 1507.16 43.83% 56.17% +5.96 6-9
2022-06-23 Chicago Sky L 59-82 1437.76 1634.12 28.00% 72.00% -10.08 6-10
2022-06-25 @ Seattle Storm W 85-77 1427.68 1573.36 26.42% 73.58% +15.63 7-10
2022-06-27 Las Vegas Aces L 73-79 1443.31 1661.70 25.51% 74.49% -4.69 7-11
2022-07-01 @ Dallas Wings W 97-89 1438.62 1463.23 41.89% 58.11% +12.34 8-11
2022-07-03 New York Liberty W 84-74 1450.96 1405.97 60.94% 39.06% +9.28 9-11
2022-07-04 Phoenix Mercury W 78-75 1460.24 1485.88 50.95% 49.05% +6.38 10-11
2022-07-07 Seattle Storm L 69-106 1466.62 1564.04 40.73% 59.27% -18.61 10-12
2022-07-12 Washington Mystics L 81-94 1448.01 1518.51 44.52% 55.48% -12.05 10-13
2022-07-14 Chicago Sky L 68-80 1435.96 1662.90 24.59% 75.41% -6.40 10-14
2022-07-19 Indiana Fever W 86-79 1429.56 1259.81 76.18% 23.82% +4.73 11-14
2022-07-21 Atlanta Dream W 85-78 1434.29 1440.16 53.79% 46.21% +9.18 12-14
2022-07-23 @ Las Vegas Aces L 66-84 1443.47 1616.35 23.49% 76.51% -7.48 12-15
2022-07-28 @ Phoenix Mercury L 80-90 1435.99 1485.98 38.38% 61.62% -9.12 12-16
2022-07-31 Minnesota Lynx L 77-84 1426.87 1498.07 44.42% 55.58% -8.82 12-17
2022-08-02 @ New York Liberty L 73-102 1418.05 1409.84 46.54% 53.46% -18.83 12-18
2022-08-03 @ New York Liberty L 61-64 1399.22 1428.67 41.21% 58.79% -5.36 12-19
2022-08-05 @ Atlanta Dream L 86-88 1393.86 1408.15 43.34% 56.66% -4.60 12-20
2022-08-07 @ Washington Mystics W 79-76 1389.26 1554.34 24.31% 75.69% +9.85 13-20
2022-08-09 Connecticut Sun L 71-97 1399.11 1653.01 21.82% 78.18% -8.36 13-21
2022-08-11 Connecticut Sun L 69-93 1390.75 1661.37 20.23% 79.77% -7.44 13-22
2022-08-14 Dallas Wings L 88-116 1383.31 1469.64 42.28% 57.72% -16.81 13-23
2022-05-06 @ Seattle Storm L 74-97 1563.40 1564.36 45.23% 54.77% -16.29 0-1
2022-05-08 Washington Mystics L 66-78 1547.11 1447.99 68.05% 31.95% -17.71 0-2
2022-05-10 @ Indiana Fever L 76-82 1529.40 1341.17 71.05% 28.95% -13.07 0-3
2022-05-14 Chicago Sky L 78-82 1516.33 1602.24 42.34% 57.66% -6.36 0-4
2022-05-17 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 87-84 1509.97 1465.58 51.75% 48.25% +6.28 1-4
2022-05-19 @ Las Vegas Aces L 87-93 1516.25 1625.95 30.64% 69.36% -5.64 1-5
2022-05-21 @ Dallas Wings L 78-94 1510.61 1468.47 51.42% 48.58% -15.44 1-6
2022-05-24 New York Liberty W 84-78 1495.17 1354.08 73.06% 26.94% +4.95 2-6
2022-05-29 Los Angeles Sparks L 83-85 1500.12 1445.24 62.28% 37.72% -6.61 2-7
2022-06-01 @ Atlanta Dream L 76-84 1493.51 1426.41 55.00% 45.00% -11.69 2-8
2022-06-05 @ New York Liberty W 84-77 1481.82 1359.92 62.62% 37.38% +7.43 3-8
2022-06-07 @ New York Liberty L 69-88 1489.25 1352.49 64.60% 35.40% -21.15 3-9
2022-06-10 Washington Mystics L 59-76 1468.10 1490.18 51.47% 48.53% -15.93 3-10
2022-06-12 Indiana Fever L 80-84 1452.17 1294.81 74.87% 25.13% -11.25 3-11
2022-06-14 Seattle Storm L 79-81 1440.92 1559.63 37.81% 62.19% -4.01 3-12
2022-06-19 @ Las Vegas Aces L 85-96 1436.91 1677.43 17.22% 82.78% -4.29 3-13
2022-06-21 @ Phoenix Mercury W 84-71 1432.62 1495.24 36.68% 63.32% +17.15 4-13
2022-06-23 Phoenix Mercury W 100-88 1449.77 1478.09 50.57% 49.43% +12.86 5-13
2022-06-26 @ Chicago Sky L 85-88 1462.63 1644.20 22.60% 77.40% -2.94 5-14
2022-06-28 Dallas Wings W 92-64 1459.69 1482.57 51.35% 48.65% +19.33 6-14
2022-07-01 Las Vegas Aces L 85-91 1479.02 1651.95 30.79% 69.21% -5.67 6-15
2022-07-03 Las Vegas Aces W 102-71 1473.35 1657.62 29.42% 70.58% +29.52 7-15
2022-07-06 Chicago Sky W 81-78 1502.87 1664.11 32.25% 67.75% +8.81 8-15
2022-07-12 Phoenix Mercury W 118-107 1511.68 1484.25 58.51% 41.49% +10.33 9-15
2022-07-14 Dallas Wings L 87-92 1522.01 1461.82 63.00% 37.00% -10.58 9-16
2022-07-15 @ Indiana Fever W 87-77 1511.43 1268.65 77.06% 22.94% +5.45 10-16
2022-07-17 @ Washington Mystics L 57-70 1516.88 1521.58 44.70% 55.30% -12.10 10-17
2022-07-22 Connecticut Sun L 84-94 1504.78 1628.72 37.10% 62.90% -8.81 10-18
2022-07-24 Connecticut Sun L 79-86 1495.97 1637.53 34.77% 65.23% -6.91 10-19
2022-07-28 @ Atlanta Dream W 92-85 1489.06 1424.50 54.64% 45.36% +9.01 11-19
2022-07-31 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 84-77 1498.07 1426.87 55.58% 44.42% +8.83 12-19
2022-08-03 @ Seattle Storm L 77-89 1506.90 1571.53 36.41% 63.59% -9.47 12-20
2022-08-07 Atlanta Dream W 81-71 1497.43 1412.75 66.22% 33.78% +8.02 13-20
2022-08-10 @ Phoenix Mercury W 86-77 1505.45 1471.75 50.21% 49.79% +11.22 14-20
2022-08-12 Seattle Storm L 69-96 1516.67 1587.65 44.45% 55.55% -17.35 14-21
2022-08-14 @ Connecticut Sun L 83-90 1499.32 1668.81 23.84% 76.16% -4.74 14-22
2022-05-07 Connecticut Sun W 81-79 1383.81 1626.16 22.98% 77.02% +8.18 1-0
2022-05-11 @ Chicago Sky L 50-83 1391.99 1593.32 20.67% 79.33% -8.92 1-1
2022-05-13 Indiana Fever L 86-92 1383.07 1354.24 58.70% 41.30% -10.80 1-2
2022-05-15 Dallas Wings L 71-81 1372.27 1458.40 42.31% 57.69% -10.05 1-3
2022-05-17 Connecticut Sun L 65-92 1362.22 1626.21 20.85% 79.15% -8.14 1-4
2022-05-24 @ Minnesota Lynx L 78-84 1354.08 1495.17 26.94% 73.06% -4.95 1-5
2022-05-27 @ Seattle Storm L 71-79 1349.13 1556.11 20.15% 79.85% -4.28 1-6
2022-05-29 @ Seattle Storm L 61-92 1344.85 1560.39 19.37% 80.63% -8.10 1-7
2022-06-01 Indiana Fever W 87-74 1336.75 1329.55 55.65% 44.35% +12.01 2-7
2022-06-03 @ Washington Mystics W 74-70 1348.76 1500.99 25.69% 74.31% +11.16 3-7
2022-06-05 Minnesota Lynx L 77-84 1359.92 1481.82 37.38% 62.62% -7.43 3-8
2022-06-07 Minnesota Lynx W 88-69 1352.49 1489.25 35.40% 64.60% +21.15 4-8
2022-06-10 @ Indiana Fever W 97-83 1373.64 1307.49 54.86% 45.14% +12.69 5-8
2022-06-12 Chicago Sky L 86-88 1386.33 1622.61 23.60% 76.40% -2.51 5-9
2022-06-16 Washington Mystics W 77-65 1383.82 1508.80 36.96% 63.04% +16.40 6-9
2022-06-19 Seattle Storm L 72-81 1400.22 1555.59 32.99% 67.01% -7.44 6-10
2022-06-22 @ Connecticut Sun W 81-77 1392.78 1652.87 15.67% 84.33% +12.67 7-10
2022-06-24 @ Atlanta Dream W 89-77 1405.45 1427.01 42.32% 57.68% +15.01 8-10
2022-06-30 Atlanta Dream L 81-92 1420.46 1395.39 58.18% 41.82% -14.49 8-11
2022-07-03 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 74-84 1405.97 1450.96 39.06% 60.94% -9.28 8-12
2022-07-06 @ Las Vegas Aces W 116-107 1396.69 1628.10 17.98% 82.02% +18.48 9-12
2022-07-07 @ Phoenix Mercury L 81-84 1415.17 1479.50 36.45% 63.55% -4.74 9-13
2022-07-12 Las Vegas Aces L 101-107 1410.43 1609.63 27.67% 72.33% -5.09 9-14
2022-07-14 Las Vegas Aces L 74-108 1405.34 1614.72 26.51% 73.49% -11.61 9-15
2022-07-19 @ Connecticut Sun L 63-82 1393.73 1622.77 18.18% 81.82% -5.95 9-16
2022-07-21 @ Washington Mystics L 69-78 1387.78 1533.68 26.39% 73.61% -5.95 9-17
2022-07-23 Chicago Sky W 83-80 1381.83 1683.94 17.46% 82.54% +10.74 10-17
2022-07-29 @ Chicago Sky L 81-89 1392.57 1673.20 14.17% 85.83% -3.01 10-18
2022-07-31 Phoenix Mercury W 89-69 1389.56 1495.09 39.61% 60.39% +20.28 11-18
2022-08-02 Los Angeles Sparks W 102-73 1409.84 1418.05 53.46% 46.54% +18.83 12-18
2022-08-03 Los Angeles Sparks W 64-61 1428.67 1399.22 58.79% 41.21% +5.36 13-18
2022-08-06 @ Phoenix Mercury L 62-76 1434.03 1460.04 41.69% 58.31% -11.72 13-19
2022-08-08 @ Dallas Wings L 77-86 1422.31 1495.59 35.26% 64.74% -7.94 13-20
2022-08-10 @ Dallas Wings W 91-73 1414.37 1503.53 33.20% 66.80% +21.28 14-20
2022-08-12 @ Atlanta Dream W 80-70 1435.65 1400.92 50.35% 49.65% +11.79 15-20
2022-08-14 Atlanta Dream W 87-83 1447.44 1389.13 62.75% 37.25% +5.59 16-20
2022-05-06 Las Vegas Aces L 88-106 1555.99 1598.71 48.49% 51.51% -15.46 0-1
2022-05-11 Seattle Storm W 97-77 1540.53 1570.53 50.33% 49.67% +16.69 1-1
2022-05-14 @ Seattle Storm W 69-64 1557.22 1553.84 45.85% 54.15% +9.09 2-1
2022-05-17 @ Las Vegas Aces L 74-86 1566.31 1615.95 38.43% 61.57% -10.00 2-2
2022-05-19 Dallas Wings L 84-94 1556.31 1452.16 68.68% 31.32% -16.31 2-3
2022-05-21 @ Las Vegas Aces L 80-100 1540.00 1631.58 32.90% 67.10% -11.05 2-4
2022-05-25 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 94-99 1528.95 1446.29 57.20% 42.80% -9.60 2-5
2022-05-29 @ Atlanta Dream L 54-81 1519.35 1402.22 61.98% 38.02% -24.19 2-6
2022-05-31 @ Chicago Sky L 70-73 1495.16 1603.03 30.86% 69.14% -4.01 2-7
2022-06-03 Connecticut Sun L 88-92 1491.15 1647.82 32.82% 67.18% -4.93 2-8
2022-06-05 Los Angeles Sparks W 81-74 1486.22 1457.22 58.73% 41.27% +8.20 3-8
2022-06-10 Atlanta Dream W 90-88 1494.42 1430.01 63.56% 36.44% +3.87 4-8
2022-06-12 @ Washington Mystics W 99-90 1498.29 1506.11 44.26% 55.74% +12.56 5-8
2022-06-14 @ Washington Mystics L 65-83 1510.85 1493.55 47.85% 52.15% -15.25 5-9
2022-06-15 @ Indiana Fever W 93-80 1495.60 1306.05 71.21% 28.79% +7.80 6-9
2022-06-17 @ Dallas Wings L 88-93 1503.40 1480.86 48.60% 51.40% -8.16 6-10
2022-06-21 Minnesota Lynx L 71-84 1495.24 1432.62 63.32% 36.68% -17.15 6-11
2022-06-23 @ Minnesota Lynx L 88-100 1478.09 1449.77 49.43% 50.57% -12.86 6-12
2022-06-25 @ Dallas Wings W 83-72 1465.23 1497.30 40.85% 59.15% +14.74 7-12
2022-06-27 Indiana Fever W 83-71 1479.97 1298.60 77.38% 22.62% +5.88 8-12
2022-06-29 Indiana Fever W 99-78 1485.85 1292.71 78.54% 21.46% +7.39 9-12
2022-07-02 @ Chicago Sky L 75-91 1493.24 1656.75 24.47% 75.53% -7.36 9-13
2022-07-04 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 75-78 1485.88 1460.24 49.05% 50.95% -6.38 9-14
2022-07-07 New York Liberty W 84-81 1479.50 1415.17 63.55% 36.45% +4.75 10-14
2022-07-12 @ Minnesota Lynx L 107-118 1484.25 1511.68 41.49% 58.51% -10.34 10-15
2022-07-14 Washington Mystics W 80-75 1473.91 1530.56 46.50% 53.50% +8.99 11-15
2022-07-17 Atlanta Dream L 75-85 1482.90 1400.08 65.98% 34.02% -15.67 11-16
2022-07-22 Seattle Storm W 94-78 1467.23 1587.69 37.57% 62.43% +18.75 12-16
2022-07-28 Los Angeles Sparks W 90-80 1485.98 1435.99 61.62% 38.38% +9.11 13-16
2022-07-31 @ New York Liberty L 69-89 1495.09 1389.56 60.39% 39.61% -20.28 13-17
2022-08-02 @ Connecticut Sun L 63-87 1474.81 1643.83 23.89% 76.11% -8.79 13-18
2022-08-04 @ Connecticut Sun L 64-77 1466.02 1652.62 22.10% 77.90% -5.98 13-19
2022-08-06 New York Liberty W 76-62 1460.04 1434.03 58.31% 41.69% +11.71 14-19
2022-08-10 Minnesota Lynx L 77-86 1471.75 1505.45 49.79% 50.21% -11.22 14-20
2022-08-12 Dallas Wings W 86-74 1460.53 1482.25 51.52% 48.48% +12.62 15-20
2022-08-14 Chicago Sky L 67-82 1473.15 1651.10 30.18% 69.82% -8.78 15-21
2022-05-06 Minnesota Lynx W 97-74 1564.36 1563.40 54.77% 45.23% +16.29 1-0
2022-05-08 @ Las Vegas Aces L 74-85 1580.65 1614.16 40.65% 59.35% -10.12 1-1
2022-05-11 @ Phoenix Mercury L 77-97 1570.53 1540.53 49.67% 50.33% -16.69 1-2
2022-05-14 Phoenix Mercury L 64-69 1553.84 1557.22 54.15% 45.85% -9.09 1-3
2022-05-18 Chicago Sky W 74-71 1544.75 1608.60 45.47% 54.53% +7.09 2-3
2022-05-20 Los Angeles Sparks W 83-80 1551.84 1459.30 67.23% 32.77% +4.27 3-3
2022-05-27 New York Liberty W 79-71 1556.11 1349.13 79.85% 20.15% +4.28 4-3
2022-05-29 New York Liberty W 92-61 1560.39 1344.85 80.63% 19.37% +8.09 5-3
2022-06-03 Dallas Wings L 51-68 1568.48 1482.59 66.38% 33.62% -20.55 5-4
2022-06-05 Connecticut Sun L 86-93 1547.93 1652.75 39.71% 60.29% -7.89 5-5
2022-06-07 Atlanta Dream W 72-60 1540.04 1438.23 68.39% 31.61% +8.22 6-5
2022-06-10 @ Dallas Wings W 89-88 1548.26 1498.48 52.52% 47.48% +3.57 7-5
2022-06-12 @ Dallas Wings W 84-79 1551.83 1494.91 53.54% 46.46% +7.80 8-5
2022-06-14 @ Minnesota Lynx W 81-79 1559.63 1440.92 62.19% 37.81% +4.02 9-5
2022-06-17 @ Connecticut Sun L 71-82 1563.65 1659.58 32.35% 67.65% -8.06 9-6
2022-06-19 @ New York Liberty W 81-72 1555.59 1400.22 67.01% 32.99% +7.43 10-6
2022-06-23 Washington Mystics W 85-71 1563.02 1501.19 63.22% 36.78% +10.34 11-6
2022-06-25 Los Angeles Sparks L 77-85 1573.36 1427.68 73.58% 26.42% -15.63 11-7
2022-06-29 Las Vegas Aces W 88-78 1557.73 1666.40 39.18% 60.82% +14.44 12-7
2022-07-01 Indiana Fever W 73-57 1572.17 1285.33 86.26% 13.74% +4.13 13-7
2022-07-03 @ Atlanta Dream L 76-90 1576.30 1409.88 68.40% 31.60% -19.22 13-8
2022-07-05 @ Indiana Fever W 95-73 1557.08 1281.20 80.26% 19.74% +6.96 14-8
2022-07-07 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 106-69 1564.04 1466.62 59.27% 40.73% +18.60 15-8
2022-07-12 Dallas Wings W 83-74 1582.64 1468.60 69.89% 30.11% +6.79 16-8
2022-07-17 Indiana Fever W 81-65 1589.43 1263.20 88.73% 11.27% +3.38 17-8
2022-07-20 @ Chicago Sky L 74-78 1592.81 1675.23 34.07% 65.93% -5.12 17-9
2022-07-22 @ Phoenix Mercury L 78-94 1587.69 1467.23 62.43% 37.57% -18.75 17-10
2022-07-24 Atlanta Dream W 82-72 1568.94 1430.98 72.71% 27.29% +6.48 18-10
2022-07-28 @ Connecticut Sun L 83-88 1575.42 1644.44 35.82% 64.18% -6.01 18-11
2022-07-30 @ Washington Mystics W 82-77 1569.41 1550.20 48.12% 51.88% +8.71 19-11
2022-07-31 @ Washington Mystics L 75-78 1578.12 1541.49 50.63% 49.37% -6.59 19-12
2022-08-03 Minnesota Lynx W 89-77 1571.53 1506.90 63.59% 36.41% +9.47 20-12
2022-08-07 Las Vegas Aces L 81-89 1581.00 1611.89 50.20% 49.80% -10.66 20-13
2022-08-09 @ Chicago Sky W 111-100 1570.34 1681.04 30.51% 69.49% +17.31 21-13
2022-08-12 @ Minnesota Lynx W 96-69 1587.65 1516.67 55.55% 44.45% +17.34 22-13
2022-08-14 @ Las Vegas Aces L 100-109 1604.99 1638.99 40.58% 59.42% -9.14 22-14
2022-05-06 Indiana Fever W 84-70 1438.28 1359.79 65.42% 34.58% +9.71 1-0
2022-05-08 @ Minnesota Lynx W 78-66 1447.99 1547.11 31.95% 68.05% +17.71 2-0
2022-05-10 Las Vegas Aces W 89-76 1465.70 1624.29 32.58% 67.42% +18.25 3-0
2022-05-13 Dallas Wings L 86-94 1483.95 1445.65 60.02% 39.98% -12.75 3-1
2022-05-17 @ Dallas Wings W 84-68 1471.20 1468.45 45.76% 54.24% +16.30 4-1
2022-05-20 @ Atlanta Dream W 78-73 1487.50 1421.71 54.81% 45.19% +7.59 5-1
2022-05-22 Chicago Sky L 73-82 1495.09 1601.51 39.49% 60.51% -8.90 5-2
2022-05-24 Atlanta Dream W 70-50 1486.19 1414.12 64.58% 35.42% +11.90 6-2
2022-05-28 @ Connecticut Sun L 71-79 1498.09 1639.45 26.90% 73.10% -5.72 6-3
2022-05-31 @ Indiana Fever W 87-75 1492.37 1338.18 66.86% 33.14% +8.62 7-3
2022-06-03 New York Liberty L 70-74 1500.99 1348.76 74.31% 25.69% -11.16 7-4
2022-06-05 @ Chicago Sky L 82-91 1489.83 1613.69 28.93% 71.07% -6.52 7-5
2022-06-08 Chicago Sky W 84-82 1483.31 1620.21 35.38% 64.62% +6.87 8-5
2022-06-10 @ Minnesota Lynx W 76-59 1490.18 1468.10 48.53% 51.47% +15.93 9-5
2022-06-12 Phoenix Mercury L 90-99 1506.11 1498.29 55.74% 44.26% -12.56 9-6
2022-06-14 Phoenix Mercury W 83-65 1493.55 1510.85 52.15% 47.85% +15.25 10-6
2022-06-16 @ New York Liberty L 65-77 1508.80 1383.82 63.04% 36.96% -16.40 10-7
2022-06-19 Connecticut Sun W 71-63 1492.40 1667.63 30.51% 69.49% +14.76 11-7
2022-06-21 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 82-84 1507.16 1431.80 56.17% 43.83% -5.97 11-8
2022-06-23 @ Seattle Storm L 71-85 1501.19 1563.02 36.78% 63.22% -10.33 11-9
2022-06-25 @ Las Vegas Aces W 87-86 1490.86 1667.48 23.10% 76.90% +5.77 12-9
2022-06-28 Atlanta Dream W 92-74 1496.63 1405.91 66.99% 33.01% +10.52 13-9
2022-07-03 @ Connecticut Sun L 72-74 1507.15 1636.69 28.26% 71.74% -3.00 13-10
2022-07-06 @ Atlanta Dream W 85-66 1504.15 1429.10 56.13% 43.87% +14.36 14-10
2022-07-12 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 94-81 1518.51 1448.01 55.48% 44.52% +12.05 15-10
2022-07-14 @ Phoenix Mercury L 75-80 1530.56 1473.91 53.50% 46.50% -8.98 15-11
2022-07-17 Minnesota Lynx W 70-57 1521.58 1516.88 55.30% 44.70% +12.10 16-11
2022-07-21 New York Liberty W 78-69 1533.68 1387.78 73.61% 26.39% +5.95 17-11
2022-07-28 @ Dallas Wings W 87-77 1539.63 1469.14 55.48% 44.52% +10.57 18-11
2022-07-30 Seattle Storm L 77-82 1550.20 1569.41 51.88% 48.12% -8.71 18-12
2022-07-31 Seattle Storm W 78-75 1541.49 1578.12 49.37% 50.63% +6.59 19-12
2022-08-02 Las Vegas Aces W 83-73 1548.08 1632.32 42.57% 57.43% +13.64 20-12
2022-08-05 @ Chicago Sky L 83-93 1561.72 1668.08 31.05% 68.95% -7.38 20-13
2022-08-07 Los Angeles Sparks L 76-79 1554.34 1389.26 75.69% 24.31% -9.84 20-14
2022-08-12 @ Indiana Fever W 82-70 1544.50 1229.62 83.57% 16.43% +4.27 21-14
2022-08-14 Indiana Fever W 95-83 1548.77 1225.35 88.57% 11.43% +2.97 22-14

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
2022-08-17 New York Liberty L 91-98 1659.88 1453.03 79.84% 20.16% -15.87 0-1
2022-08-20 New York Liberty W 100-62 1644.01 1468.90 76.74% 23.26% +10.77 1-1
2022-08-23 @ New York Liberty W 90-72 1654.78 1458.13 72.04% 27.96% +8.91 2-1
2022-08-28 Connecticut Sun L 63-68 1663.69 1672.15 53.42% 46.58% -8.97 2-2
2022-08-31 Connecticut Sun W 85-77 1654.72 1681.12 50.84% 49.16% +10.44 3-2
2022-09-04 @ Connecticut Sun W 76-72 1665.16 1670.68 44.58% 55.42% +8.32 4-2
2022-09-06 @ Connecticut Sun L 80-104 1673.48 1662.35 46.96% 53.04% -17.27 4-3
2022-09-08 Connecticut Sun L 63-72 1656.21 1679.63 51.27% 48.73% -11.55 4-4
2022-08-18 Dallas Wings W 93-68 1673.55 1486.44 77.95% 22.05% +8.28 1-0
2022-08-21 Dallas Wings L 79-89 1681.83 1478.16 79.55% 20.45% -18.89 1-1
2022-08-24 @ Dallas Wings W 73-58 1662.94 1497.05 68.34% 31.66% +9.21 2-1
2022-08-28 @ Chicago Sky W 68-63 1672.15 1663.69 46.58% 53.42% +8.97 3-1
2022-08-31 @ Chicago Sky L 77-85 1681.12 1654.72 49.16% 50.84% -10.44 3-2
2022-09-04 Chicago Sky L 72-76 1670.68 1665.16 55.42% 44.58% -8.33 3-3
2022-09-06 Chicago Sky W 104-80 1662.35 1673.48 53.04% 46.96% +17.28 4-3
2022-09-08 @ Chicago Sky W 72-63 1679.63 1656.21 48.73% 51.27% +11.55 5-3
2022-09-11 @ Las Vegas Aces L 64-67 1691.18 1682.83 46.56% 53.44% -6.05 5-4
2022-09-13 @ Las Vegas Aces L 71-85 1685.13 1688.89 44.83% 55.17% -12.60 5-5
2022-09-15 Las Vegas Aces W 105-76 1672.53 1701.49 50.48% 49.52% +20.03 6-5
2022-09-18 Las Vegas Aces L 71-78 1692.56 1681.46 56.21% 43.79% -11.17 6-6
2022-08-18 @ Connecticut Sun L 68-93 1486.44 1673.55 22.05% 77.95% -8.28 0-1
2022-08-21 @ Connecticut Sun W 89-79 1478.16 1681.83 20.45% 79.55% +18.89 1-1
2022-08-24 Connecticut Sun L 58-73 1497.05 1662.94 31.66% 68.34% -9.21 1-2
2022-08-17 Phoenix Mercury W 79-63 1648.14 1464.37 77.62% 22.38% +6.72 1-0
2022-08-20 Phoenix Mercury W 117-80 1654.86 1457.64 78.93% 21.07% +9.62 2-0
2022-08-28 Seattle Storm L 73-76 1664.48 1611.18 62.07% 37.93% -8.07 2-1
2022-08-31 Seattle Storm W 78-73 1656.41 1619.26 59.86% 40.14% +6.74 3-1
2022-09-04 @ Seattle Storm W 110-98 1663.15 1612.52 52.64% 47.36% +12.32 4-1
2022-09-06 @ Seattle Storm W 97-92 1675.47 1600.19 56.16% 43.84% +7.36 5-1
2022-09-11 Connecticut Sun W 67-64 1682.83 1691.18 53.44% 46.56% +6.06 6-1
2022-09-13 Connecticut Sun W 85-71 1688.89 1685.13 55.17% 44.83% +12.60 7-1
2022-09-15 @ Connecticut Sun L 76-105 1701.49 1672.53 49.52% 50.48% -20.03 7-2
2022-09-18 @ Connecticut Sun W 78-71 1681.46 1692.56 43.79% 56.21% +11.17 8-2
2022-08-17 @ Chicago Sky W 98-91 1453.03 1659.88 20.16% 79.84% +15.87 1-0
2022-08-20 @ Chicago Sky L 62-100 1468.90 1644.01 23.26% 76.74% -10.77 1-1
2022-08-23 Chicago Sky L 72-90 1458.13 1654.78 27.96% 72.04% -8.91 1-2
2022-08-17 @ Las Vegas Aces L 63-79 1464.37 1648.14 22.38% 77.62% -6.73 0-1
2022-08-20 @ Las Vegas Aces L 80-117 1457.64 1654.86 21.07% 78.93% -9.62 0-2
2022-08-18 Washington Mystics W 86-83 1595.85 1551.74 60.82% 39.18% +5.10 1-0
2022-08-21 Washington Mystics W 97-84 1600.95 1546.65 62.21% 37.79% +10.23 2-0
2022-08-28 @ Las Vegas Aces W 76-73 1611.18 1664.48 37.93% 62.07% +8.08 3-0
2022-08-31 @ Las Vegas Aces L 73-78 1619.26 1656.41 40.14% 59.86% -6.74 3-1
2022-09-04 Las Vegas Aces L 98-110 1612.52 1663.15 47.36% 52.64% -12.33 3-2
2022-09-06 Las Vegas Aces L 92-97 1600.19 1675.47 43.84% 56.16% -7.36 3-3
2022-08-18 @ Seattle Storm L 83-86 1551.74 1595.85 39.18% 60.82% -5.09 0-1
2022-08-21 @ Seattle Storm L 84-97 1546.65 1600.95 37.79% 62.21% -10.24 0-2

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2022-06-19 15.22% @ Indiana Fever 1298.26 89 Chicago Sky 1628.88 87
2 2022-06-22 15.67% New York Liberty 1392.78 81 @ Connecticut Sun 1652.87 77
3 2022-07-23 17.46% @ New York Liberty 1381.83 83 Chicago Sky 1683.94 80
4 2022-07-06 17.98% New York Liberty 1396.69 116 @ Las Vegas Aces 1628.10 107
5 2022-07-19 18.75% Atlanta Dream 1415.75 92 @ Las Vegas Aces 1638.18 76
6 2022-08-02 19.76% Dallas Wings 1471.69 84 @ Chicago Sky 1682.84 78
7 2022-08-17 * 20.16% New York Liberty 1453.03 98 @ Chicago Sky 1659.88 91
8 2022-08-21 * 20.45% Dallas Wings 1478.16 89 @ Connecticut Sun 1681.83 79
9 2022-05-07 22.98% @ New York Liberty 1383.81 81 Connecticut Sun 1626.16 79
10 2022-06-25 23.10% Washington Mystics 1490.86 87 @ Las Vegas Aces 1667.48 86
11 2022-08-07 24.31% Los Angeles Sparks 1389.26 79 @ Washington Mystics 1554.34 76
12 2022-05-24 24.89% Dallas Wings 1483.92 85 @ Connecticut Sun 1643.49 77
13 2022-06-12 25.13% Indiana Fever 1294.81 84 @ Minnesota Lynx 1452.17 80
14 2022-06-03 25.69% New York Liberty 1348.76 74 @ Washington Mystics 1500.99 70
15 2022-05-06 25.73% Los Angeles Sparks 1456.18 98 @ Chicago Sky 1608.08 91
16 2022-06-25 26.42% Los Angeles Sparks 1427.68 85 @ Seattle Storm 1573.36 77
17 2022-07-05 28.88% @ Dallas Wings 1450.89 82 Connecticut Sun 1639.69 71
18 2022-05-10 28.95% @ Indiana Fever 1341.17 82 Minnesota Lynx 1529.40 76
19 2022-07-03 29.42% @ Minnesota Lynx 1473.35 102 Las Vegas Aces 1657.62 71
20 2022-06-19 30.51% @ Washington Mystics 1492.40 71 Connecticut Sun 1667.63 63
21 2022-08-09 30.51% Seattle Storm 1570.34 111 @ Chicago Sky 1681.04 100
22 2022-05-19 31.32% Dallas Wings 1452.16 94 @ Phoenix Mercury 1556.31 84
23 2022-07-03 31.60% @ Atlanta Dream 1409.88 90 Seattle Storm 1576.30 76
24 2022-05-08 31.95% Washington Mystics 1447.99 78 @ Minnesota Lynx 1547.11 66
25 2022-07-06 32.25% @ Minnesota Lynx 1502.87 81 Chicago Sky 1664.11 78

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2022-07-03 29.52 @ Minnesota Lynx 102 1473.35 29.42% Las Vegas Aces 71 1657.62 70.58%
2 2022-07-19 24.41 Atlanta Dream 92 1415.75 18.75% @ Las Vegas Aces 76 1638.18 81.25%
3 2022-05-29 24.19 @ Atlanta Dream 81 1402.22 38.02% Phoenix Mercury 54 1519.35 61.98%
4 2022-08-10 21.28 New York Liberty 91 1414.37 33.20% @ Dallas Wings 73 1503.53 66.80%
5 2022-06-07 21.15 @ New York Liberty 88 1352.49 35.40% Minnesota Lynx 69 1489.25 64.60%
6 2022-06-03 20.55 Dallas Wings 68 1482.59 33.62% @ Seattle Storm 51 1568.48 66.38%
7 2022-07-31 20.28 @ New York Liberty 89 1389.56 39.61% Phoenix Mercury 69 1495.09 60.39%
8 2022-09-15 * 20.03 @ Connecticut Sun 105 1672.53 50.48% Las Vegas Aces 76 1701.49 49.52%
9 2022-06-28 19.34 @ Minnesota Lynx 92 1459.69 51.35% Dallas Wings 64 1482.57 48.65%
10 2022-07-03 19.22 @ Atlanta Dream 90 1409.88 31.60% Seattle Storm 76 1576.30 68.40%
11 2022-08-21 * 18.89 Dallas Wings 89 1478.16 20.45% @ Connecticut Sun 79 1681.83 79.55%
12 2022-08-02 18.83 @ New York Liberty 102 1409.84 53.46% Los Angeles Sparks 73 1418.05 46.54%
13 2022-07-22 18.75 @ Phoenix Mercury 94 1467.23 37.57% Seattle Storm 78 1587.69 62.43%
14 2022-07-07 18.61 Seattle Storm 106 1564.04 59.27% @ Los Angeles Sparks 69 1466.62 40.73%
15 2022-07-06 18.48 New York Liberty 116 1396.69 17.98% @ Las Vegas Aces 107 1628.10 82.02%
16 2022-05-10 18.26 @ Washington Mystics 89 1465.70 32.58% Las Vegas Aces 76 1624.29 67.42%
17 2022-07-05 17.72 @ Dallas Wings 82 1450.89 28.88% Connecticut Sun 71 1639.69 71.12%
18 2022-05-08 17.71 Washington Mystics 78 1447.99 31.95% @ Minnesota Lynx 66 1547.11 68.05%
19 2022-08-12 17.35 Seattle Storm 96 1587.65 55.55% @ Minnesota Lynx 69 1516.67 44.45%
20 2022-08-09 17.31 Seattle Storm 111 1570.34 30.51% @ Chicago Sky 100 1681.04 69.49%
21 2022-09-06 * 17.28 @ Connecticut Sun 104 1662.35 53.04% Chicago Sky 80 1673.48 46.96%
22 2022-06-21 17.15 Minnesota Lynx 84 1432.62 36.68% @ Phoenix Mercury 71 1495.24 63.32%
23 2022-08-14 16.81 Dallas Wings 116 1469.64 57.72% @ Los Angeles Sparks 88 1383.31 42.28%
24 2022-05-17 16.76 Atlanta Dream 101 1404.95 52.43% @ Indiana Fever 79 1355.79 47.57%
25 2022-05-11 16.69 @ Phoenix Mercury 97 1540.53 50.33% Seattle Storm 77 1570.53 49.67%