2021 WNBA Season

192 regular-season games · 8 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Chicago Sky

1st Title

Runner-Up

Phoenix Mercury

5th Appearance

Last Appearance: 2014

Biggest Overachiever

Minnesota Lynx

3.75 wins above expected

22 wins · 18.25 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Seattle Storm

4.59 wins below expected

21 wins · 25.59 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PPG	OPP	DIFF	SimW	vsSim
1	Connecticut Sun League	26	6	.812	-	79.7	69.9	+9.8	22.65	+3.35
2	Las Vegas Aces Playoffs	24	8	.750	2	89.2	80.2	+9.1	21.92	+2.08
3	Minnesota Lynx Playoffs	22	10	.688	4	82.7	78.7	+4.0	18.25	+3.75
4	Seattle Storm Playoffs	21	11	.656	5	84.8	80.4	+4.4	25.59	-4.59
5	Phoenix Mercury Playoffs	19	13	.594	7	82.1	79.5	+2.6	17.74	+1.26
6	Chicago Sky Playoffs	16	16	.500	10	83.2	81.9	+1.3	15.89	+0.11
7	Dallas Wings Playoffs	14	18	.438	12	81.1	81.7	-0.5	14.45	-0.45
8	New York Liberty Playoffs	12	20	.375	14	78.5	85.5	-7.0	8.99	+3.01
9	Washington Mystics	12	20	.375	14	79.8	83.6	-3.8	13.26	-1.26
10	Los Angeles Sparks	12	20	.375	14	72.8	77.1	-4.3	14.07	-2.07
11	Atlanta Dream	8	24	.250	18	78.7	84.3	-5.6	11.14	-3.14
12	Indiana Fever	6	26	.188	20	75.3	85.1	-9.8	8.06	-2.06

Playoff Bracket

WNBA Playoffs

First Round

Chicago Sky 81

Dallas Wings 64

Sep 23

Phoenix Mercury 83

New York Liberty 82

Sep 23

Second Round

Chicago Sky 89

Minnesota Lynx 76

Sep 26

Phoenix Mercury 85

Seattle Storm 80

Sep 26

Semifinals

Chicago Sky 3

Connecticut Sun 1

4 games · Sep 28–Oct 6

Phoenix Mercury 3

Las Vegas Aces 2

5 games · Sep 28–Oct 8

WNBA Finals

Chicago Sky 3

Phoenix Mercury 1

4 games · Oct 10–Oct 17

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Connecticut Sun	1752	26	22.65	+3.35	94.82%	12	19	21	23	24	27	32
Las Vegas Aces	1705	24	21.92	+2.08	85.65%	10	18	20	22	24	26	31
Minnesota Lynx	1634	22	18.25	+3.75	95.22%	8	14	17	18	20	22	28
Seattle Storm	1620	21	25.59	-4.59	3.68%	15	22	24	26	27	29	32
Phoenix Mercury	1581	19	17.74	+1.26	74.71%	6	13	16	18	20	22	29
Chicago Sky	1521	16	15.89	+0.11	59.08%	5	12	14	16	18	20	27
Dallas Wings	1448	14	14.45	-0.45	50.98%	2	10	13	14	16	19	27
Los Angeles Sparks	1431	12	14.07	-2.07	27.19%	3	10	12	14	16	18	25
Washington Mystics	1401	12	13.26	-1.26	38.91%	2	9	11	13	15	18	27
New York Liberty	1328	12	8.99	+3.01	92.18%	0	5	7	9	11	13	21
Atlanta Dream	1307	8	11.14	-3.14	14.78%	1	7	9	11	13	15	22
Indiana Fever	1271	6	8.06	-2.06	25.41%	0	4	6	8	10	12	18

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	Dream	Sky	Sun	Wings	Fever	Aces	Sparks	Lynx	Liberty	Mercury	Storm	Mystics
Atlanta Dream	—	1-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-3 (0.6 exp.)	2-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-1 (1.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-3 (1.1 exp.)	0-3 (1.2 exp.)	2-1 (1.8 exp.)	0-3 (0.7 exp.)	0-3 (0.4 exp.)	1-2 (1.2 exp.)
Chicago Sky	2-1 (2.0 exp.)	—	2-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-2 (1.6 exp.)	3-0 (2.2 exp.)	1-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-3 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-1 (2.1 exp.)	0-3 (1.2 exp.)	3-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-2 (1.9 exp.)
Connecticut Sun	3-0 (2.4 exp.)	1-2 (2.0 exp.)	—	3-0 (2.1 exp.)	2-1 (2.6 exp.)	3-0 (1.5 exp.)	3-0 (2.6 exp.)	2-1 (1.9 exp.)	3-0 (2.6 exp.)	3-0 (1.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	3-0 (2.3 exp.)
Dallas Wings	1-2 (2.0 exp.)	2-1 (1.4 exp.)	0-3 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	0-3 (0.8 exp.)	3-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-2 (1.4 exp.)	1-2 (2.0 exp.)	2-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-1 (1.6 exp.)
Indiana Fever	1-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-3 (0.8 exp.)	1-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-3 (0.4 exp.)	1-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-3 (0.4 exp.)	1-2 (1.6 exp.)	0-3 (0.6 exp.)	0-3 (0.2 exp.)	1-2 (1.0 exp.)
Las Vegas Aces	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-1 (2.0 exp.)	0-3 (1.5 exp.)	3-0 (2.2 exp.)	3-0 (2.6 exp.)	—	3-0 (2.2 exp.)	1-2 (1.9 exp.)	3-0 (2.5 exp.)	2-1 (2.0 exp.)	2-1 (0.9 exp.)	3-0 (2.3 exp.)
Los Angeles Sparks	3-0 (1.9 exp.)	3-0 (1.7 exp.)	0-3 (0.4 exp.)	0-3 (1.7 exp.)	2-1 (2.0 exp.)	0-3 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-3 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-2 (1.5 exp.)	1-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-2 (1.5 exp.)
Minnesota Lynx	3-0 (1.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-1 (1.6 exp.)	3-0 (2.6 exp.)	2-1 (1.1 exp.)	3-0 (2.1 exp.)	—	2-1 (2.4 exp.)	2-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-1 (2.1 exp.)
New York Liberty	1-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-3 (0.4 exp.)	2-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-1 (1.4 exp.)	0-3 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-2 (0.4 exp.)	2-1 (1.1 exp.)
Phoenix Mercury	3-0 (2.3 exp.)	3-0 (1.8 exp.)	0-3 (1.2 exp.)	1-2 (1.8 exp.)	3-0 (2.4 exp.)	1-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-2 (1.5 exp.)	2-1 (2.2 exp.)	—	1-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Seattle Storm	3-0 (2.6 exp.)	0-3 (2.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-1 (2.5 exp.)	3-0 (2.8 exp.)	1-2 (2.1 exp.)	2-1 (2.5 exp.)	2-1 (2.2 exp.)	2-1 (2.6 exp.)	2-1 (2.1 exp.)	—	2-1 (2.5 exp.)
Washington Mystics	2-1 (1.8 exp.)	2-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-3 (0.7 exp.)	1-2 (1.4 exp.)	2-1 (2.0 exp.)	0-3 (0.7 exp.)	2-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-2 (1.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-2 (0.5 exp.)	—

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	<60	60–69	70–79	80–89	90–99	100–109	110+	Total
<60	—	0.52%	1.30%	0.78%	—	—	—	2.60%
60–69	0.52%	2.08%	5.73%	3.65%	1.30%	—	—	13.28%
70–79	1.30%	5.73%	6.77%	10.94%	3.12%	2.60%	0.26%	30.73%
80–89	0.78%	3.65%	10.94%	11.98%	5.47%	1.04%	—	33.85%
90–99	—	1.30%	3.12%	5.47%	2.60%	1.04%	0.26%	13.80%
100–109	—	—	2.60%	1.04%	1.04%	0.52%	—	5.21%
110+	—	—	0.26%	—	0.26%	—	—	0.52%
Total	2.60%	13.28%	30.73%	33.85%	13.80%	5.21%	0.52%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	80.66	80.66	+0.00
SD	10.90	10.90	13.98
CV	0.14	0.14	—
Max	118	118	+36
Min	53	53	-36

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	<60	60–69	70–79	80–89	90–99	100–109	110+	Total
<60	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60–69	—	6.25%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	—	25.00%
70–79	—	3.12%	6.25%	15.62%	3.12%	3.12%	—	31.25%
80–89	—	—	6.25%	9.38%	6.25%	3.12%	—	25.00%
90–99	—	—	—	6.25%	3.12%	—	3.12%	12.50%
100–109	—	—	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	6.25%
110+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	9.38%	28.12%	37.50%	15.62%	6.25%	3.12%	100%

Atlanta Dream — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	78.69	84.31	-5.62
SD	10.30	10.90	10.38
CV	0.13	0.13	—
Max	101	118	+23
Min	64	64	-24

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	<60	60–69	70–79	80–89	90–99	100–109	110+	Total
<60	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
60–69	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
70–79	3.12%	3.12%	6.25%	6.25%	—	3.12%	—	21.88%
80–89	—	—	12.50%	9.38%	9.38%	3.12%	—	34.38%
90–99	—	3.12%	6.25%	12.50%	—	6.25%	—	28.12%
100–109	—	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
110+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	3.12%	9.38%	34.38%	31.25%	9.38%	12.50%	—	100%

Chicago Sky — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	83.25	81.94	+1.31
SD	11.65	10.79	13.40
CV	0.14	0.13	—
Max	107	103	+32
Min	58	56	-33

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	<60	60–69	70–79	80–89	90–99	100–109	110+	Total
<60	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60–69	—	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
70–79	9.38%	21.88%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	40.62%
80–89	6.25%	12.50%	15.62%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	46.88%
90–99	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
100–109	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
110+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	15.62%	37.50%	28.12%	12.50%	6.25%	—	—	100%

Connecticut Sun — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	79.72	69.91	+9.81
SD	7.08	9.85	11.27
CV	0.09	0.14	—
Max	98	91	+29
Min	66	54	-23

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	<60	60–69	70–79	80–89	90–99	100–109	110+	Total
<60	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	—	6.25%
60–69	—	6.25%	—	—	—	—	—	6.25%
70–79	3.12%	6.25%	6.25%	15.62%	3.12%	—	—	34.38%
80–89	—	3.12%	9.38%	15.62%	3.12%	—	—	31.25%
90–99	—	—	6.25%	—	3.12%	6.25%	—	15.62%
100–109	—	—	—	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	6.25%
110+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	3.12%	15.62%	21.88%	37.50%	12.50%	9.38%	—	100%

Dallas Wings — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	81.12	81.66	-0.53
SD	11.29	11.25	11.77
CV	0.14	0.14	—
Max	102	105	+25
Min	56	59	-27

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	<60	60–69	70–79	80–89	90–99	100–109	110+	Total
<60	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60–69	—	—	6.25%	12.50%	3.12%	—	—	21.88%
70–79	—	6.25%	6.25%	25.00%	6.25%	3.12%	3.12%	50.00%
80–89	—	3.12%	3.12%	12.50%	9.38%	—	—	28.12%
90–99	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
100–109	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
110+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	9.38%	15.62%	50.00%	18.75%	3.12%	3.12%	100%

Indiana Fever — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	75.31	85.12	-9.81
SD	6.88	9.85	12.09
CV	0.09	0.12	—
Max	89	113	+13
Min	63	67	-36

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	<60	60–69	70–79	80–89	90–99	100–109	110+	Total
<60	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60–69	3.12%	—	12.50%	—	—	—	—	15.62%
70–79	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
80–89	—	—	12.50%	6.25%	9.38%	—	—	28.12%
90–99	—	3.12%	6.25%	12.50%	9.38%	—	—	31.25%
100–109	—	—	12.50%	3.12%	—	—	—	15.62%
110+	—	—	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	6.25%
Total	3.12%	3.12%	50.00%	21.88%	21.88%	—	—	100%

Las Vegas Aces — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	89.25	80.19	+9.06
SD	13.56	9.07	13.85
CV	0.15	0.11	—
Max	118	99	+36
Min	62	58	-14

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	<60	60–69	70–79	80–89	90–99	100–109	110+	Total
<60	—	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	9.38%
60–69	—	6.25%	12.50%	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	31.25%
70–79	—	6.25%	12.50%	9.38%	6.25%	—	—	34.38%
80–89	3.12%	—	3.12%	15.62%	—	—	—	21.88%
90–99	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	—	3.12%
100–109	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
110+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	3.12%	21.88%	31.25%	34.38%	9.38%	—	—	100%

Los Angeles Sparks — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	72.75	77.09	-4.34
SD	9.96	10.76	14.28
CV	0.14	0.14	—
Max	98	99	+35
Min	57	53	-28

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	<60	60–69	70–79	80–89	90–99	100–109	110+	Total
<60	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60–69	3.12%	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
70–79	—	6.25%	9.38%	9.38%	6.25%	—	—	31.25%
80–89	—	6.25%	18.75%	9.38%	—	6.25%	—	40.62%
90–99	—	3.12%	6.25%	6.25%	—	—	—	15.62%
100–109	—	—	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	6.25%
110+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	3.12%	15.62%	37.50%	28.12%	9.38%	6.25%	—	100%

Minnesota Lynx — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	82.72	78.72	+4.00
SD	9.43	11.19	12.92
CV	0.11	0.14	—
Max	101	105	+31
Min	60	57	-21

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	<60	60–69	70–79	80–89	90–99	100–109	110+	Total
<60	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
60–69	—	—	6.25%	9.38%	6.25%	—	—	21.88%
70–79	—	3.12%	6.25%	6.25%	3.12%	12.50%	—	31.25%
80–89	—	—	9.38%	9.38%	9.38%	—	—	28.12%
90–99	—	—	—	9.38%	3.12%	—	—	12.50%
100–109	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
110+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	3.12%	28.12%	34.38%	21.88%	12.50%	—	100%

New York Liberty — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	78.47	85.50	-7.03
SD	10.59	10.31	13.71
CV	0.13	0.12	—
Max	101	106	+23
Min	54	65	-29

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	<60	60–69	70–79	80–89	90–99	100–109	110+	Total
<60	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
60–69	—	—	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	9.38%
70–79	—	3.12%	9.38%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
80–89	—	12.50%	6.25%	25.00%	3.12%	—	—	46.88%
90–99	—	—	3.12%	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	9.38%
100–109	—	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	6.25%
110+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	15.62%	28.12%	46.88%	9.38%	—	—	100%

Phoenix Mercury — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	82.06	79.50	+2.56
SD	9.93	8.32	12.80
CV	0.12	0.10	—
Max	106	99	+27
Min	59	64	-31

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	<60	60–69	70–79	80–89	90–99	100–109	110+	Total
<60	—	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	3.12%
60–69	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	—	—	—	6.25%
70–79	—	6.25%	3.12%	6.25%	—	3.12%	—	18.75%
80–89	—	3.12%	25.00%	6.25%	3.12%	—	—	37.50%
90–99	—	—	6.25%	15.62%	3.12%	—	—	25.00%
100–109	—	—	3.12%	—	3.12%	3.12%	—	9.38%
110+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	40.62%	31.25%	9.38%	6.25%	—	100%

Seattle Storm — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	84.81	80.38	+4.44
SD	11.39	10.79	13.66
CV	0.13	0.13	—
Max	105	107	+34
Min	53	62	-32

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	<60	60–69	70–79	80–89	90–99	100–109	110+	Total
<60	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
60–69	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
70–79	—	3.12%	6.25%	21.88%	9.38%	6.25%	—	46.88%
80–89	—	3.12%	9.38%	18.75%	6.25%	—	—	37.50%
90–99	—	—	—	—	6.25%	—	—	6.25%
100–109	—	—	3.12%	—	—	—	—	3.12%
110+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	6.25%	25.00%	40.62%	21.88%	6.25%	—	100%

Washington Mystics — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	79.78	83.62	-3.84
SD	8.79	9.44	12.98
CV	0.11	0.11	—
Max	101	105	+29
Min	56	68	-34

Games Played: 32

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.47	+10.2
Allowed	0.54	-10.9
Differential	0.95	+9.9

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Minnesota Lynx	22	18.25	+3.75
2	Connecticut Sun	26	22.65	+3.35
3	New York Liberty	12	8.99	+3.01
4	Las Vegas Aces	24	21.92	+2.08
5	Phoenix Mercury	19	17.74	+1.26

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Seattle Storm	21	25.59	-4.59
2	Atlanta Dream	8	11.14	-3.14
3	Los Angeles Sparks	12	14.07	-2.07
4	Indiana Fever	6	8.06	-2.06
5	Washington Mystics	12	13.26	-1.26

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Minnesota Lynx	8	Jun 23 – Aug 15	1 in 216
2	Chicago Sky	7	Jun 9 – Jun 24	1 in 116
3	Indiana Fever	3	Jul 3 – Jul 11	1 in 69
4	Dallas Wings	3	Jun 6 – Jun 11	1 in 55
5	Connecticut Sun	14	Jul 9 – Sep 19	1 in 50

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Chicago Sky	7	May 23 – Jun 5	1 in 194
2	Phoenix Mercury	4	Jun 8 – Jun 16	1 in 50
3	Seattle Storm	3	Aug 24 – Aug 29	1 in 49
4	Atlanta Dream	11	Jul 2 – Sep 2	1 in 47
5	Las Vegas Aces	2	Jul 7 – Jul 9	1 in 17

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Seattle Storm	71.79%	20.08%	6.43%	1.35%	0.28%	0.05%	0.01%	<0.01%	-	-	-	-
Connecticut Sun	16.10%	39.18%	28.41%	10.62%	3.82%	1.35%	0.38%	0.11%	0.03%	<0.01%	-	-
Las Vegas Aces	10.54%	30.93%	35.48%	14.22%	5.75%	2.05%	0.73%	0.23%	0.06%	<0.01%	<0.01%	-
Minnesota Lynx	0.82%	4.79%	13.04%	27.46%	23.36%	14.87%	8.34%	4.44%	2.00%	0.70%	0.14%	0.02%
Phoenix Mercury	0.63%	3.54%	10.22%	23.77%	23.84%	16.79%	10.62%	6.24%	2.99%	1.08%	0.26%	0.04%
Chicago Sky	0.09%	0.98%	3.68%	10.73%	17.27%	20.93%	18.23%	13.51%	8.71%	4.21%	1.34%	0.33%
Dallas Wings	0.02%	0.27%	1.36%	5.25%	10.03%	15.34%	19.28%	19.31%	15.64%	9.00%	3.55%	0.95%
Los Angeles Sparks	0.01%	0.13%	0.88%	4.04%	8.80%	14.52%	18.62%	19.64%	17.05%	10.47%	4.50%	1.33%
Washington Mystics	<0.01%	0.10%	0.45%	2.11%	5.38%	10.22%	15.34%	19.67%	21.26%	15.40%	7.45%	2.62%
Atlanta Dream	-	<0.01%	0.05%	0.38%	1.22%	3.08%	6.24%	11.25%	18.96%	28.47%	19.88%	10.46%
New York Liberty	-	-	<0.01%	0.04%	0.20%	0.59%	1.58%	3.75%	8.29%	17.98%	33.46%	34.11%
Indiana Fever	-	-	-	0.01%	0.05%	0.20%	0.63%	1.87%	5.01%	12.68%	29.41%	50.15%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Seattle Storm	71.79%	20.08%	6.43%	1.35%	0.28%	0.05%	0.01%	<0.01%	-
Connecticut Sun	16.10%	39.18%	28.41%	10.62%	3.82%	1.35%	0.38%	0.11%	0.03%
Las Vegas Aces	10.54%	30.93%	35.48%	14.22%	5.75%	2.05%	0.73%	0.23%	0.07%
Minnesota Lynx	0.82%	4.79%	13.04%	27.46%	23.36%	14.87%	8.34%	4.44%	2.88%
Phoenix Mercury	0.63%	3.54%	10.22%	23.77%	23.84%	16.79%	10.62%	6.24%	4.37%
Chicago Sky	0.09%	0.98%	3.68%	10.73%	17.27%	20.93%	18.23%	13.51%	14.59%
Dallas Wings	0.02%	0.27%	1.36%	5.25%	10.03%	15.34%	19.28%	19.31%	29.14%
Los Angeles Sparks	0.01%	0.13%	0.88%	4.04%	8.80%	14.52%	18.62%	19.64%	33.35%
Washington Mystics	<0.01%	0.10%	0.45%	2.11%	5.38%	10.22%	15.34%	19.67%	46.72%
Atlanta Dream	-	<0.01%	0.05%	0.38%	1.22%	3.08%	6.24%	11.25%	77.76%
New York Liberty	-	-	<0.01%	0.04%	0.20%	0.59%	1.58%	3.75%	93.84%
Indiana Fever	-	-	-	0.01%	0.05%	0.20%	0.63%	1.87%	97.25%

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeAway

+7.29%

Clear Edge

53.65%46.35%

Elo Value

Home Edge

29 Elo

0.035 points per Elo point

025.3880

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.45 points

Lean Home

-8+0.89+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd · Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th · Longshot: 7th or lower.

Title-Race Openness

3.4

Few Contenders

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

Chicago Sky, 6th of 12

LongshotFavorite

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 2.01 · As Expected: 2.01 to 2.76 · Elevated: 2.76 to 3.76 · High Variance: 3.76 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 0.93 · Close: 0.93 to 1.25 · Off Target: 1.25 to 1.64 · Well Off Target: 1.64 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 12 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 12 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.6 · As Expected: 0.6 to 1.44 · Several Outliers: 1.44 to 2.64 · Many Outliers: 2.64 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 0.63 · As Expected: 0.63 to 1.06 · More Than Expected: 1.06 to 1.69 · Far More Than Expected: 1.69 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

2.61 wins

As Expected

02.516

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.83

Pinpoint

01.092.5

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

95.22%

Minnesota Lynx

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

3.68%

Seattle Storm

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 12

Several Outliers

01.26

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

1 of 8

As Expected

00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 15 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.22

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.93

Stratified

01.003

Interquartile Edge

80%

Lopsided

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 96%

94%

No Contest

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

17%

Mostly Decisive

0%17%100%

Blowouts

Expected

31%

Routine

0%30%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.20

Predictable

00.201

Matchup Imbalance

0.40

Lopsided

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.18

Volatile

01.002

Repeatability

0.77

Strong Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

31%

As Expected

0%30%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

29%

As Expected

0%25%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.05 · Within Noise: 0.05 to 0.11 · Above Noise: 0.11 to 0.21 · Well Above Noise: 0.21 and up.

Probability calibration

0.64

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.91

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.084

Within Noise

00.1070.25

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Semifinals	Advanced to Finals	Won Finals
Connecticut Sun	89.58%	89.58%	62.83%	43.97%
Las Vegas Aces	83.26%	83.26%	46.09%	26.80%
Seattle Storm	97.18%	97.18%	45.95%	14.07%
Minnesota Lynx	78.63%	51.59%	23.16%	9.26%
Phoenix Mercury	72.93%	38.67%	13.48%	4.13%
Chicago Sky	53.45%	19.47%	5.23%	1.28%
Dallas Wings	32.26%	8.48%	1.56%	0.28%
Los Angeles Sparks	27.98%	6.85%	1.07%	0.14%
Washington Mystics	18.95%	4.01%	0.53%	0.06%
Atlanta Dream	5.05%	0.66%	0.05%	<0.01%
New York Liberty	1.46%	0.20%	0.03%	<0.01%
Indiana Fever	0.47%	0.05%	<0.01%	-

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Dream	Chicago Sky	Connecticut Sun	Dallas Wings	Indiana Fever	Las Vegas Aces	Los Angeles Sparks	Minnesota Lynx	New York Liberty	Phoenix Mercury	Seattle Storm	Washington Mystics
Atlanta Dream		21.6%0.24%	7.8%1.16%	28.3%0.11%		9.2%1.42%	29.5%0.09%	13.4%0.96%	100.0%<0.01%	18.2%0.78%	12.3%0.24%	43.8%0.05%
Chicago Sky	78.4%0.24%		20.7%9.12%	60.5%2.40%	81.8%0.02%	25.2%11.65%	62.8%2.02%	34.1%13.87%	73.8%0.07%	40.6%11.07%	33.9%1.76%	63.9%1.23%
Connecticut Sun	92.2%1.16%	79.3%9.12%		84.9%5.89%	95.2%0.12%	53.5%1.23%	86.4%5.23%	67.7%8.07%	90.9%0.35%	73.2%8.73%	67.0%0.10%	88.4%3.92%
Dallas Wings	71.7%0.11%	39.5%2.40%	15.1%5.89%		55.6%<0.01%	17.7%7.86%	53.4%0.92%	26.1%7.49%	75.0%0.02%	31.1%5.93%	25.1%1.12%	57.0%0.51%
Indiana Fever		18.2%0.02%	4.8%0.12%	44.4%<0.01%		11.0%0.15%	40.0%<0.01%	18.7%0.07%		9.1%0.06%	4.2%0.02%	0.0%<0.01%
Las Vegas Aces	90.8%1.42%	74.8%11.65%	46.5%1.23%	82.3%7.86%	89.0%0.15%		82.7%6.92%	60.9%10.79%	89.8%0.47%	67.5%11.22%	66.7%0.12%	84.9%5.01%
Los Angeles Sparks	70.5%0.09%	37.2%2.02%	13.6%5.23%	46.6%0.92%	60.0%<0.01%	17.3%6.92%		24.4%6.39%	66.7%0.02%	29.9%4.91%	26.7%1.07%	55.0%0.41%
Minnesota Lynx	86.6%0.96%	65.9%13.87%	32.3%8.07%	73.9%7.49%	81.3%0.07%	39.1%10.79%	75.6%6.39%		86.1%0.24%	57.9%25.54%	48.8%1.26%	79.4%3.94%
New York Liberty	0.0%<0.01%	26.2%0.07%	9.1%0.35%	25.0%0.02%		10.2%0.47%	33.3%0.02%	13.9%0.24%		18.9%0.18%	19.4%0.09%	12.5%<0.01%
Phoenix Mercury	81.8%0.78%	59.4%11.07%	26.8%8.73%	68.9%5.93%	90.9%0.06%	32.5%11.22%	70.1%4.91%	42.1%25.54%	81.1%0.18%		40.6%1.45%	73.1%3.06%
Seattle Storm	87.7%0.24%	66.1%1.76%	33.0%0.10%	74.9%1.12%	95.8%0.02%	33.3%0.12%	73.3%1.07%	51.2%1.26%	80.6%0.09%	59.4%1.45%		77.0%0.82%
Washington Mystics	56.2%0.05%	36.1%1.23%	11.6%3.92%	43.0%0.51%	100.0%<0.01%	15.1%5.01%	45.0%0.41%	20.6%3.94%	87.5%<0.01%	26.9%3.06%	23.0%0.82%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Dream	Chicago Sky	Connecticut Sun	Dallas Wings	Indiana Fever	Las Vegas Aces	Los Angeles Sparks	Minnesota Lynx	New York Liberty	Phoenix Mercury	Seattle Storm	Washington Mystics
Atlanta Dream			3.3%0.12%			3.1%0.10%		0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	10.0%0.43%
Chicago Sky			13.9%4.87%	39.3%0.03%		18.4%3.21%	58.8%0.02%	28.8%0.42%		38.6%0.28%	34.8%10.63%	63.6%0.01%
Connecticut Sun	96.7%0.12%	86.1%4.87%		92.0%1.96%	100.0%<0.01%	59.8%41.33%	94.0%1.60%	72.8%14.70%	97.8%0.04%	81.1%10.69%	76.5%13.34%	94.8%0.92%
Dallas Wings		60.7%0.03%	8.0%1.96%			10.9%1.34%	60.0%<0.01%	14.7%0.12%		33.3%0.07%	24.2%4.94%	66.7%<0.01%
Indiana Fever			0.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%		0.0%<0.01%	12.5%0.04%
Las Vegas Aces	96.9%0.10%	81.6%3.21%	40.2%41.33%	89.1%1.34%	100.0%<0.01%		90.0%1.03%	62.7%10.41%	94.4%0.02%	72.7%7.60%	68.4%17.66%	90.1%0.56%
Los Angeles Sparks		41.2%0.02%	6.0%1.60%	40.0%<0.01%		10.0%1.03%		14.1%0.10%		12.9%0.07%	20.9%4.03%	0.0%<0.01%
Minnesota Lynx	100.0%<0.01%	71.2%0.42%	27.2%14.70%	85.3%0.12%	100.0%<0.01%	37.3%10.41%	85.9%0.10%			62.3%1.08%	56.9%24.70%	82.4%0.05%
New York Liberty			2.2%0.04%			5.6%0.02%				50.0%<0.01%	16.8%0.13%
Phoenix Mercury	100.0%<0.01%	61.4%0.28%	18.9%10.69%	66.7%0.07%	100.0%<0.01%	27.3%7.60%	87.1%0.07%	37.7%1.08%	50.0%<0.01%		46.0%18.84%	89.3%0.03%
Seattle Storm	90.0%0.43%	65.2%10.63%	23.5%13.34%	75.8%4.94%	87.5%0.04%	31.6%17.66%	79.1%4.03%	43.1%24.70%	83.2%0.13%	54.0%18.84%		83.1%2.43%
Washington Mystics		36.4%0.01%	5.2%0.92%	33.3%<0.01%		9.9%0.56%	100.0%<0.01%	17.6%0.05%		10.7%0.03%	16.9%2.43%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Dream	Chicago Sky	Connecticut Sun	Dallas Wings	Indiana Fever	Las Vegas Aces	Los Angeles Sparks	Minnesota Lynx	New York Liberty	Phoenix Mercury	Seattle Storm	Washington Mystics
Atlanta Dream			12.5%0.02%			0.0%0.01%		0.0%<0.01%		33.3%<0.01%	25.0%<0.01%
Chicago Sky			17.3%2.31%	50.0%0.03%		22.4%1.54%	47.1%0.02%	33.1%0.51%		42.6%0.30%	40.3%0.52%	71.4%<0.01%
Connecticut Sun	87.5%0.02%	82.7%2.31%		88.6%0.68%	100.0%<0.01%	58.4%17.61%	90.9%0.50%	69.4%10.50%	100.0%0.01%	77.3%5.97%	74.3%24.97%	93.1%0.25%
Dallas Wings		50.0%0.03%	11.4%0.68%			17.1%0.49%	75.0%<0.01%	20.3%0.15%		30.9%0.07%	33.3%0.13%	100.0%<0.01%
Las Vegas Aces	100.0%0.01%	77.6%1.54%	41.6%17.61%	82.9%0.49%	100.0%<0.01%		87.6%0.28%	62.3%7.04%	100.0%0.01%	71.7%4.00%	68.3%14.93%	87.6%0.16%
Los Angeles Sparks		52.9%0.02%	9.1%0.50%	25.0%<0.01%		12.4%0.28%		14.4%0.12%		17.3%0.05%	24.4%0.09%	50.0%<0.01%
Minnesota Lynx	100.0%<0.01%	66.9%0.51%	30.6%10.50%	79.7%0.15%		37.7%7.04%	85.6%0.12%		100.0%<0.01%	60.6%1.29%	57.4%3.49%	80.6%0.04%
New York Liberty			0.0%0.01%			0.0%0.01%		0.0%<0.01%			100.0%<0.01%
Phoenix Mercury	66.7%<0.01%	57.4%0.30%	22.7%5.97%	69.1%0.07%		28.3%4.00%	82.7%0.05%	39.4%1.29%			47.7%1.77%	76.7%0.03%
Seattle Storm	75.0%<0.01%	59.7%0.52%	25.7%24.97%	66.7%0.13%		31.7%14.93%	75.6%0.09%	42.6%3.49%	0.0%<0.01%	52.3%1.77%		85.4%0.05%
Washington Mystics		28.6%<0.01%	6.9%0.25%	0.0%<0.01%		12.4%0.16%	50.0%<0.01%	19.4%0.04%		23.3%0.03%	14.6%0.05%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Semifinals	Advanced to Finals	Won Finals	Actual Outcome
Connecticut Sun	100.00%	80.55%	50.08%	Eliminated in Semifinals
Las Vegas Aces	100.00%	65.38%	29.62%	Eliminated in Semifinals
Phoenix Mercury	32.22%	7.69%	2.88%	Eliminated in Finals
Chicago Sky	21.39%	3.02%	0.96%	Won Finals

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Sky	Dallas Wings	Minnesota Lynx	Phoenix Mercury	Seattle Storm	Washington Mystics
Chicago Sky			32.9%49.07%		35.0%15.02%
Dallas Wings			25.8%27.43%		27.8%8.47%
Minnesota Lynx	67.1%49.07%	74.2%27.43%				78.9%23.50%
Phoenix Mercury					42.1%76.50%
Seattle Storm	65.0%15.02%	72.2%8.47%		57.9%76.50%
Washington Mystics			21.1%23.50%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Sky	Connecticut Sun	Dallas Wings	Las Vegas Aces	Minnesota Lynx	Phoenix Mercury	Seattle Storm	Washington Mystics
Chicago Sky		13.7%20.29%		21.7%1.10%
Connecticut Sun	86.3%20.29%		92.0%8.92%			78.8%22.44%	74.8%43.39%	94.6%4.96%
Dallas Wings		8.0%8.92%		11.9%0.51%
Las Vegas Aces	78.3%1.10%		88.1%0.51%		64.1%71.83%	70.1%9.79%	66.4%16.77%
Minnesota Lynx				35.9%71.83%
Phoenix Mercury		21.2%22.44%		29.9%9.79%
Seattle Storm		25.2%43.39%		33.6%16.77%
Washington Mystics		5.4%4.96%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Sky	Connecticut Sun	Dallas Wings	Las Vegas Aces	Minnesota Lynx	Phoenix Mercury	Seattle Storm	Washington Mystics
Chicago Sky		23.6%0.22%		29.5%1.85%	37.1%0.20%	36.3%0.29%	39.5%0.43%	64.3%0.01%
Connecticut Sun	76.4%0.22%		82.8%0.06%	59.0%52.79%	68.0%19.87%	70.7%2.57%	67.0%5.04%
Dallas Wings		17.2%0.06%		17.2%0.50%	28.6%0.04%	38.3%0.06%	27.3%0.11%	66.7%<0.01%
Las Vegas Aces	70.5%1.85%	41.0%52.79%	82.8%0.50%			62.8%3.04%	60.0%7.01%	81.2%0.19%
Minnesota Lynx	62.9%0.20%	32.0%19.87%	71.4%0.04%			55.5%1.72%	50.9%3.92%
Phoenix Mercury	63.7%0.29%	29.3%2.57%	61.7%0.06%	37.2%3.04%	44.5%1.72%
Seattle Storm	60.5%0.43%	33.0%5.04%	72.7%0.11%	40.0%7.01%	49.1%3.92%			80.3%0.06%
Washington Mystics	35.7%0.01%		33.3%<0.01%	18.8%0.19%			19.7%0.06%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Connecticut Sun 50.08% chance to win

Semifinals

vs. Seattle Storm

Matchup

40.30%

Win Prob

74.81%

→

Finals

vs. Las Vegas Aces

Matchup

62.21%

Win Prob

59.01%

Las Vegas Aces 29.62% chance to win

Semifinals

vs. Minnesota Lynx

Matchup

70.48%

Win Prob

64.15%

→

Finals

vs. Connecticut Sun

Matchup

73.03%

Win Prob

40.99%

Minnesota Lynx 9.46% chance to win

Quarterfinals

vs. Chicago Sky

Matchup

45.85%

Win Prob

67.12%

→

Semifinals

vs. Las Vegas Aces

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

35.85%

→

Finals

vs. Connecticut Sun

Matchup

67.17%

Win Prob

31.99%

Seattle Storm 6.78% chance to win

Quarterfinals

vs. Phoenix Mercury

Matchup

73.60%

Win Prob

57.88%

→

Semifinals

vs. Connecticut Sun

Matchup

65.95%

Win Prob

25.19%

→

Finals

vs. Las Vegas Aces

Matchup

41.28%

Win Prob

39.97%

Phoenix Mercury 2.88% chance to win

Quarterfinals

vs. Seattle Storm

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.12%

→

Semifinals

vs. Connecticut Sun

Matchup

61.90%

Win Prob

21.22%

→

Finals

vs. Las Vegas Aces

Matchup

39.33%

Win Prob

37.23%

Chicago Sky 0.96% chance to win

Quarterfinals

vs. Minnesota Lynx

Matchup

75.44%

Win Prob

32.88%

→

Semifinals

vs. Connecticut Sun

Matchup

92.08%

Win Prob

13.70%

→

Finals

vs. Las Vegas Aces

Matchup

56.98%

Win Prob

29.49%

Dallas Wings 0.16% chance to win

Quarterfinals

vs. Minnesota Lynx

Matchup

75.00%

Win Prob

25.80%

→

Semifinals

vs. Connecticut Sun

Matchup

92.11%

Win Prob

7.98%

→

Finals

vs. Las Vegas Aces

Matchup

52.76%

Win Prob

17.20%

Washington Mystics 0.05% chance to win

Quarterfinals

vs. Minnesota Lynx

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

21.12%

→

Semifinals

vs. Connecticut Sun

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

5.44%

→

Finals

vs. Las Vegas Aces

Matchup

66.67%

Win Prob

18.75%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2021-05-14	Connecticut Sun	L 67-78	1422.81	1585.86	31.16%	68.84%	-11.63	0-1
2021-05-19	Chicago Sky	L 77-85	1411.18	1502.79	40.58%	59.42%	-12.93	0-2
2021-05-21	@ Indiana Fever	W 83-79	1398.25	1335.11	55.41%	44.59%	+10.04	1-2
2021-05-25	@ Chicago Sky	W 90-83	1408.29	1491.30	34.89%	65.11%	+19.40	2-2
2021-05-27	Dallas Wings	W 101-95	1427.69	1451.25	50.26%	49.74%	+13.72	3-2
2021-05-29	@ New York Liberty	W 90-87	1441.41	1377.48	55.52%	44.48%	+8.67	4-2
2021-06-04	@ Minnesota Lynx	L 84-86	1450.08	1495.27	39.98%	60.02%	-6.36	4-3
2021-06-06	@ Minnesota Lynx	L 80-100	1443.72	1501.64	38.24%	61.76%	-19.26	4-4
2021-06-09	Seattle Storm	L 71-95	1424.46	1737.67	16.02%	83.98%	-8.83	4-5
2021-06-11	Seattle Storm	L 75-86	1415.63	1746.51	14.70%	85.30%	-5.49	4-6
2021-06-13	Washington Mystics	W 101-78	1410.14	1483.07	43.20%	56.80%	+30.67	5-6
2021-06-17	@ Washington Mystics	L 93-96	1440.81	1452.39	44.70%	55.30%	-8.72	5-7
2021-06-23	Minnesota Lynx	L 85-87	1432.09	1493.09	44.89%	55.11%	-7.15	5-8
2021-06-26	New York Liberty	L 78-101	1424.94	1330.73	66.56%	33.44%	-35.94	5-9
2021-06-29	New York Liberty	W 73-69	1389.00	1366.68	56.82%	43.18%	+9.72	6-9
2021-07-02	@ Seattle Storm	L 88-91	1398.72	1747.05	10.42%	89.58%	-2.03	6-10
2021-07-04	@ Las Vegas Aces	L 95-118	1396.69	1689.80	13.78%	86.22%	-7.44	6-11
2021-07-09	@ Connecticut Sun	L 72-84	1389.25	1614.90	19.08%	80.92%	-7.44	6-12
2021-07-11	Indiana Fever	L 68-79	1381.81	1298.15	65.20%	34.80%	-24.35	6-13
2021-08-15	@ Phoenix Mercury	L 81-92	1357.46	1507.61	26.69%	73.31%	-9.97	6-14
2021-08-17	@ Los Angeles Sparks	L 80-85	1347.49	1407.91	37.90%	62.10%	-9.54	6-15
2021-08-19	@ Los Angeles Sparks	L 64-66	1337.95	1417.45	35.35%	64.65%	-5.63	6-16
2021-08-21	Phoenix Mercury	L 69-84	1332.32	1536.23	26.35%	73.65%	-11.49	6-17
2021-08-24	Chicago Sky	L 79-86	1320.83	1498.20	29.42%	70.58%	-8.77	6-18
2021-08-26	Las Vegas Aces	L 71-78	1312.06	1650.03	14.19%	85.81%	-4.23	6-19
2021-09-02	@ Dallas Wings	L 68-72	1307.83	1467.52	25.63%	74.37%	-5.77	6-20
2021-09-05	@ Dallas Wings	W 69-64	1302.06	1473.29	24.38%	75.62%	+19.04	7-20
2021-09-08	Phoenix Mercury	L 75-76	1321.10	1611.63	17.85%	82.15%	-2.01	7-21
2021-09-10	@ Washington Mystics	L 74-82	1319.09	1397.13	35.54%	64.46%	-11.32	7-22
2021-09-14	Indiana Fever	W 85-78	1307.77	1298.33	54.99%	45.01%	+13.41	8-22
2021-09-16	Los Angeles Sparks	L 68-74	1321.18	1429.87	38.23%	61.77%	-10.55	8-23
2021-09-19	@ Connecticut Sun	L 64-84	1310.63	1748.38	6.50%	93.50%	-3.27	8-24
2021-05-15	@ Washington Mystics	W 70-56	1479.71	1487.73	45.21%	54.79%	+23.08	1-0
2021-05-19	@ Atlanta Dream	W 85-77	1502.79	1411.18	59.42%	40.58%	+12.93	2-0
2021-05-23	New York Liberty	L 85-93	1515.72	1334.59	76.65%	23.35%	-24.42	2-1
2021-05-25	Atlanta Dream	L 83-90	1491.30	1408.29	65.11%	34.89%	-19.39	2-2
2021-05-28	Los Angeles Sparks	L 61-76	1471.91	1477.30	52.87%	47.13%	-23.06	2-3
2021-05-30	Los Angeles Sparks	L 79-82	1448.85	1500.36	46.25%	53.75%	-9.02	2-4
2021-06-01	Phoenix Mercury	L 83-84	1439.83	1524.18	41.59%	58.41%	-4.68	2-5
2021-06-03	@ Phoenix Mercury	L 74-77	1435.15	1528.87	33.50%	66.50%	-6.54	2-6
2021-06-05	@ Los Angeles Sparks	L 63-68	1428.61	1504.66	35.80%	64.20%	-9.01	2-7
2021-06-09	Indiana Fever	W 92-76	1419.60	1297.09	70.08%	29.92%	+13.47	3-7
2021-06-12	@ Indiana Fever	W 83-79	1433.07	1283.61	67.13%	32.87%	+7.40	4-7
2021-06-15	@ Minnesota Lynx	W 105-89	1440.47	1527.55	34.36%	65.64%	+29.57	5-7
2021-06-17	Connecticut Sun	W 81-75	1470.04	1634.26	31.02%	68.98%	+19.02	6-7
2021-06-19	Connecticut Sun	W 91-81	1489.06	1615.23	35.89%	64.11%	+22.83	7-7
2021-06-22	@ New York Liberty	W 92-72	1511.89	1362.89	67.08%	32.92%	+16.58	8-7
2021-06-24	@ New York Liberty	W 91-68	1528.47	1346.31	71.15%	28.85%	+15.58	9-7
2021-06-27	@ Connecticut Sun	L 58-74	1544.05	1604.21	37.93%	62.07%	-17.08	9-8
2021-06-30	@ Dallas Wings	W 91-81	1526.97	1513.98	48.22%	51.78%	+18.44	10-8
2021-07-02	@ Dallas Wings	L 91-100	1545.41	1495.54	53.52%	46.48%	-18.08	10-9
2021-07-10	Washington Mystics	L 85-89	1527.33	1428.50	67.15%	32.85%	-15.12	10-10
2021-08-15	Seattle Storm	W 87-85	1512.21	1738.52	23.93%	76.07%	+12.11	11-10
2021-08-17	Dallas Wings	L 76-80	1524.32	1458.91	62.78%	37.22%	-14.14	11-11
2021-08-21	Minnesota Lynx	L 95-101	1510.18	1581.38	43.44%	56.56%	-11.98	11-12
2021-08-24	@ Atlanta Dream	W 86-79	1498.20	1320.83	70.58%	29.42%	+8.77	12-12
2021-08-27	@ Seattle Storm	W 73-69	1506.97	1700.23	22.12%	77.88%	+17.53	13-12
2021-08-29	@ Seattle Storm	W 107-75	1524.50	1682.69	25.79%	74.21%	+47.27	14-12
2021-08-31	@ Phoenix Mercury	L 83-103	1571.77	1573.80	46.06%	53.94%	-23.20	14-13
2021-09-02	@ Las Vegas Aces	L 83-90	1548.57	1660.79	31.17%	68.83%	-9.28	14-14
2021-09-05	Las Vegas Aces	W 92-84	1539.29	1670.08	35.28%	64.72%	+20.61	15-14
2021-09-12	Washington Mystics	L 71-79	1559.90	1408.45	73.46%	26.54%	-23.39	15-15
2021-09-17	Las Vegas Aces	L 70-103	1536.51	1678.87	33.77%	66.23%	-21.85	15-16
2021-09-19	Indiana Fever	W 98-87	1514.66	1277.86	81.89%	18.11%	+6.76	16-16
2021-05-14	@ Atlanta Dream	W 78-67	1585.86	1422.81	68.84%	31.16%	+11.64	1-0
2021-05-16	Phoenix Mercury	W 86-78	1597.50	1534.57	62.44%	37.56%	+11.96	2-0
2021-05-19	Indiana Fever	W 88-67	1609.46	1343.23	84.27%	15.73%	+8.12	3-0
2021-05-21	@ Phoenix Mercury	W 84-67	1617.58	1546.00	56.61%	43.39%	+20.14	4-0
2021-05-23	@ Las Vegas Aces	W 72-65	1637.72	1631.15	47.30%	52.70%	+15.70	5-0
2021-05-25	@ Seattle Storm	L 87-90	1653.42	1728.78	35.90%	64.10%	-7.00	5-1
2021-05-28	Washington Mystics	W 86-81	1646.42	1455.26	77.67%	22.33%	+5.63	6-1
2021-05-30	@ Minnesota Lynx	L 74-79	1652.05	1477.59	70.23%	29.77%	-17.69	6-2
2021-06-01	Las Vegas Aces	W 74-67	1634.36	1642.69	52.45%	47.55%	+14.17	7-2
2021-06-05	New York Liberty	W 85-64	1648.53	1360.77	85.85%	14.15%	+7.30	8-2
2021-06-13	Seattle Storm	L 66-89	1655.83	1752.00	39.95%	60.05%	-21.57	8-3
2021-06-17	@ Chicago Sky	L 75-81	1634.26	1470.04	68.98%	31.02%	-19.03	8-4
2021-06-19	@ Chicago Sky	L 81-91	1615.23	1489.06	64.11%	35.89%	-22.83	8-5
2021-06-22	Dallas Wings	W 80-70	1592.40	1496.00	66.84%	33.16%	+11.81	9-5
2021-06-27	Chicago Sky	W 74-58	1604.21	1544.05	62.07%	37.93%	+17.09	10-5
2021-06-29	@ Washington Mystics	W 90-71	1621.30	1454.95	69.24%	30.76%	+15.09	11-5
2021-07-01	@ Indiana Fever	W 86-80	1636.39	1251.61	88.78%	11.22%	+3.10	12-5
2021-07-03	@ Indiana Fever	L 67-73	1639.49	1248.52	89.13%	10.87%	-24.59	12-6
2021-07-09	Atlanta Dream	W 84-72	1614.90	1389.25	80.92%	19.08%	+7.44	13-6
2021-07-11	@ New York Liberty	W 71-54	1622.34	1356.25	79.99%	20.01%	+9.29	14-6
2021-08-15	@ Dallas Wings	W 80-59	1631.63	1475.43	67.98%	32.02%	+16.52	15-6
2021-08-17	Minnesota Lynx	W 72-60	1648.15	1611.14	58.88%	41.12%	+16.04	16-6
2021-08-19	Minnesota Lynx	W 82-71	1664.19	1595.10	63.27%	36.73%	+13.72	17-6
2021-08-24	Las Vegas Aces	W 76-62	1677.91	1669.02	54.91%	45.09%	+18.99	18-6
2021-08-26	Los Angeles Sparks	W 76-72	1696.90	1414.30	85.48%	14.52%	+3.27	19-6
2021-08-28	Los Angeles Sparks	W 76-61	1700.17	1411.03	85.94%	14.06%	+6.13	20-6
2021-08-31	@ Washington Mystics	W 85-75	1706.30	1426.20	81.25%	18.75%	+6.68	21-6
2021-09-07	@ Dallas Wings	W 83-56	1712.98	1454.25	79.30%	20.70%	+12.11	22-6
2021-09-09	@ Los Angeles Sparks	W 75-57	1725.09	1388.84	85.69%	14.31%	+6.84	23-6
2021-09-11	@ Phoenix Mercury	W 76-67	1731.93	1613.64	63.06%	36.94%	+12.47	24-6
2021-09-15	New York Liberty	W 98-69	1744.40	1308.33	93.44%	6.56%	+3.98	25-6
2021-09-19	Atlanta Dream	W 84-64	1748.38	1310.63	93.50%	6.50%	+3.28	26-6
2021-05-14	@ Los Angeles Sparks	W 94-71	1438.03	1531.38	33.55%	66.45%	+35.89	1-0
2021-05-22	Seattle Storm	L 97-100	1473.92	1724.59	21.47%	78.53%	-4.19	1-1
2021-05-24	@ New York Liberty	L 81-88	1469.73	1359.00	62.04%	37.96%	-18.48	1-2
2021-05-27	@ Atlanta Dream	L 95-101	1451.25	1427.69	49.74%	50.26%	-13.72	1-3
2021-05-29	Phoenix Mercury	L 85-89	1437.53	1514.58	42.62%	57.38%	-9.60	1-4
2021-06-01	Los Angeles Sparks	W 79-69	1427.93	1509.38	42.00%	58.00%	+20.65	2-4
2021-06-04	@ Seattle Storm	L 102-105	1448.58	1744.80	13.57%	86.43%	-2.64	2-5
2021-06-06	@ Seattle Storm	W 68-67	1445.94	1747.44	13.22%	86.78%	+9.77	3-5
2021-06-08	@ Phoenix Mercury	W 85-81	1455.71	1535.40	35.32%	64.68%	+14.56	4-5
2021-06-11	@ Phoenix Mercury	W 77-59	1470.27	1520.83	39.24%	60.76%	+29.03	5-5
2021-06-13	@ Las Vegas Aces	L 78-85	1499.30	1642.08	27.53%	72.47%	-8.20	5-6
2021-06-17	Minnesota Lynx	L 73-85	1491.10	1497.99	52.66%	47.34%	-20.54	5-7
2021-06-19	Minnesota Lynx	W 95-77	1470.56	1518.53	46.75%	53.25%	+25.44	6-7
2021-06-22	@ Connecticut Sun	L 70-80	1496.00	1592.40	33.16%	66.84%	-11.81	6-8
2021-06-24	@ Indiana Fever	W 89-64	1484.19	1265.54	75.26%	24.74%	+13.93	7-8
2021-06-26	Washington Mystics	W 85-74	1498.12	1470.81	57.52%	42.48%	+15.86	8-8
2021-06-30	Chicago Sky	L 81-91	1513.98	1526.97	51.78%	48.22%	-18.44	8-9
2021-07-02	Chicago Sky	W 100-91	1495.54	1545.41	46.48%	53.52%	+18.08	9-9
2021-07-05	@ New York Liberty	L 96-99	1513.62	1368.30	66.61%	33.39%	-12.99	9-10
2021-07-07	@ Minnesota Lynx	L 79-85	1500.63	1553.50	38.93%	61.07%	-10.74	9-11
2021-07-11	Las Vegas Aces	L 79-95	1489.89	1645.37	32.11%	67.89%	-14.46	9-12
2021-08-15	Connecticut Sun	L 59-80	1475.43	1631.63	32.02%	67.98%	-16.52	9-13
2021-08-17	@ Chicago Sky	W 80-76	1458.91	1524.32	37.22%	62.78%	+14.14	10-13
2021-08-20	Indiana Fever	L 81-83	1473.05	1308.75	74.87%	25.13%	-11.92	10-14
2021-08-26	@ Washington Mystics	W 82-77	1461.13	1432.59	50.45%	49.55%	+12.47	11-14
2021-08-28	@ Washington Mystics	L 75-76	1473.60	1420.11	54.04%	45.96%	-6.08	11-15
2021-09-02	Atlanta Dream	W 72-68	1467.52	1307.83	74.37%	25.63%	+5.77	12-15
2021-09-05	Atlanta Dream	L 64-69	1473.29	1302.06	75.62%	24.38%	-19.04	12-16
2021-09-07	Connecticut Sun	L 56-83	1454.25	1712.98	20.70%	79.30%	-12.11	12-17
2021-09-11	New York Liberty	W 77-76	1442.14	1311.60	71.05%	28.95%	+3.26	13-17
2021-09-13	@ Las Vegas Aces	L 75-85	1445.40	1672.11	18.98%	81.02%	-6.76	13-18
2021-09-19	Los Angeles Sparks	W 87-84	1438.64	1440.42	53.39%	46.61%	+9.09	14-18
2021-05-14	@ New York Liberty	L 87-90	1373.88	1297.90	57.23%	42.77%	-11.17	0-1
2021-05-16	New York Liberty	L 65-73	1362.71	1309.07	61.18%	38.82%	-19.48	0-2
2021-05-19	@ Connecticut Sun	L 67-88	1343.23	1609.46	15.73%	84.27%	-8.12	0-3
2021-05-21	Atlanta Dream	L 79-83	1335.11	1398.25	44.59%	55.41%	-10.04	0-4
2021-05-23	Washington Mystics	W 89-77	1325.07	1462.20	34.45%	65.55%	+25.57	1-4
2021-05-25	Washington Mystics	L 69-85	1350.64	1436.63	41.36%	58.64%	-18.63	1-5
2021-05-28	@ Las Vegas Aces	L 77-113	1332.01	1626.72	13.67%	86.33%	-9.24	1-6
2021-05-30	@ Las Vegas Aces	L 78-101	1322.77	1635.96	12.47%	87.53%	-6.73	1-7
2021-06-01	@ Seattle Storm	L 73-88	1316.04	1741.77	6.93%	93.07%	-3.02	1-8
2021-06-03	@ Los Angeles Sparks	L 63-98	1313.02	1488.73	23.91%	76.09%	-15.93	1-9
2021-06-09	@ Chicago Sky	L 76-92	1297.09	1419.60	29.92%	70.08%	-13.48	1-10
2021-06-12	Chicago Sky	L 79-83	1283.61	1433.07	32.87%	67.13%	-7.40	1-11
2021-06-15	Seattle Storm	L 70-87	1276.21	1773.57	6.20%	93.80%	-2.88	1-12
2021-06-17	Seattle Storm	L 69-79	1273.33	1776.45	6.01%	93.99%	-2.13	1-13
2021-06-19	@ Washington Mystics	L 77-82	1271.20	1461.11	22.46%	77.54%	-5.66	1-14
2021-06-24	Dallas Wings	L 64-89	1265.54	1484.19	24.74%	75.26%	-13.93	1-15
2021-07-01	Connecticut Sun	L 80-86	1251.61	1636.39	11.22%	88.78%	-3.09	1-16
2021-07-03	Connecticut Sun	W 73-67	1248.52	1639.49	10.87%	89.13%	+24.58	2-16
2021-07-09	New York Liberty	W 82-69	1273.10	1381.29	38.30%	61.70%	+25.05	3-16
2021-07-11	@ Atlanta Dream	W 79-68	1298.15	1381.81	34.80%	65.20%	+24.35	4-16
2021-08-15	@ Los Angeles Sparks	L 70-75	1322.50	1398.91	35.76%	64.24%	-9.00	4-17
2021-08-17	@ Phoenix Mercury	L 80-84	1313.50	1517.57	21.07%	78.93%	-4.75	4-18
2021-08-20	@ Dallas Wings	W 83-81	1308.75	1473.05	25.13%	74.87%	+11.93	5-18
2021-08-28	Las Vegas Aces	L 71-87	1320.68	1654.26	14.50%	85.50%	-6.54	5-19
2021-08-31	Los Angeles Sparks	W 74-72	1314.14	1404.90	40.70%	59.30%	+9.45	6-19
2021-09-04	Phoenix Mercury	L 65-87	1323.59	1596.99	19.34%	80.66%	-10.22	6-20
2021-09-06	Phoenix Mercury	L 81-86	1313.37	1607.21	17.58%	82.42%	-4.43	6-21
2021-09-10	@ Minnesota Lynx	L 72-89	1308.94	1609.54	13.28%	86.72%	-6.16	6-22
2021-09-12	@ Minnesota Lynx	L 80-90	1302.78	1615.70	12.48%	87.52%	-4.45	6-23
2021-09-14	@ Atlanta Dream	L 78-85	1298.33	1307.77	45.01%	54.99%	-13.40	6-24
2021-09-17	Minnesota Lynx	L 73-92	1284.93	1620.15	14.39%	85.61%	-7.07	6-25
2021-09-19	@ Chicago Sky	L 87-98	1277.86	1514.66	18.11%	81.89%	-6.76	6-26
2021-05-15	@ Seattle Storm	L 83-97	1590.33	1737.71	27.00%	73.00%	-11.37	0-1
2021-05-18	@ Seattle Storm	W 96-80	1578.96	1749.09	24.50%	75.50%	+34.00	1-1
2021-05-21	Los Angeles Sparks	W 97-69	1612.96	1495.49	69.47%	30.53%	+18.19	2-1
2021-05-23	Connecticut Sun	L 65-72	1631.15	1637.72	52.70%	47.30%	-15.70	2-2
2021-05-26	@ Phoenix Mercury	W 85-79	1615.45	1525.85	59.14%	40.86%	+11.27	3-2
2021-05-28	Indiana Fever	W 113-77	1626.72	1332.01	86.33%	13.67%	+9.24	4-2
2021-05-30	Indiana Fever	W 101-78	1635.96	1322.77	87.53%	12.47%	+6.73	5-2
2021-06-01	@ Connecticut Sun	L 67-74	1642.69	1634.36	47.55%	52.45%	-14.17	5-3
2021-06-03	@ New York Liberty	W 94-82	1628.52	1368.81	79.40%	20.60%	+8.04	6-3
2021-06-05	@ Washington Mystics	W 96-93	1636.56	1449.64	71.71%	28.29%	+5.52	7-3
2021-06-13	Dallas Wings	W 85-78	1642.08	1499.30	72.47%	27.53%	+8.20	8-3
2021-06-15	New York Liberty	W 100-78	1650.28	1364.93	85.68%	14.32%	+7.57	9-3
2021-06-17	New York Liberty	W 103-76	1657.85	1357.36	86.71%	13.29%	+7.77	10-3
2021-06-25	@ Minnesota Lynx	L 89-90	1665.62	1500.24	69.12%	30.88%	-7.78	10-4
2021-06-27	Seattle Storm	W 95-92	1657.84	1758.90	39.28%	60.72%	+11.84	11-4
2021-06-30	@ Los Angeles Sparks	W 99-75	1669.68	1445.10	75.89%	24.11%	+13.30	12-4
2021-07-02	@ Los Angeles Sparks	W 66-58	1682.98	1431.80	78.58%	21.42%	+6.82	13-4
2021-07-04	Atlanta Dream	W 118-95	1689.80	1396.69	86.22%	13.78%	+7.44	14-4
2021-07-07	Phoenix Mercury	L 90-99	1697.24	1460.19	81.92%	18.08%	-27.67	14-5
2021-07-09	Minnesota Lynx	L 67-77	1669.57	1564.23	67.97%	32.03%	-24.20	14-6
2021-07-11	@ Dallas Wings	W 95-79	1645.37	1489.89	67.89%	32.11%	+14.46	15-6
2021-08-15	Washington Mystics	W 84-83	1659.83	1443.62	80.07%	19.93%	+2.24	16-6
2021-08-17	Washington Mystics	W 93-83	1662.07	1441.38	80.48%	19.52%	+6.95	17-6
2021-08-24	@ Connecticut Sun	L 62-76	1669.02	1677.91	45.09%	54.91%	-18.99	17-7
2021-08-26	@ Atlanta Dream	W 78-71	1650.03	1312.06	85.81%	14.19%	+4.23	18-7
2021-08-28	@ Indiana Fever	W 87-71	1654.26	1320.68	85.50%	14.50%	+6.53	19-7
2021-09-02	Chicago Sky	W 90-83	1660.79	1548.57	68.83%	31.17%	+9.29	20-7
2021-09-05	@ Chicago Sky	L 84-92	1670.08	1539.29	64.72%	35.28%	-20.62	20-8
2021-09-08	Minnesota Lynx	W 102-81	1649.46	1632.18	56.11%	43.89%	+22.65	21-8
2021-09-13	Dallas Wings	W 85-75	1672.11	1445.40	81.02%	18.98%	+6.76	22-8
2021-09-17	@ Chicago Sky	W 103-70	1678.87	1536.51	66.23%	33.77%	+21.85	23-8
2021-09-19	@ Phoenix Mercury	W 84-83	1700.72	1585.65	62.63%	37.37%	+4.20	24-8
2021-05-14	Dallas Wings	L 71-94	1531.38	1438.03	66.45%	33.55%	-35.89	0-1
2021-05-21	@ Las Vegas Aces	L 69-97	1495.49	1612.96	30.53%	69.47%	-18.19	0-2
2021-05-28	@ Chicago Sky	W 76-61	1477.30	1471.91	47.13%	52.87%	+23.06	1-2
2021-05-30	@ Chicago Sky	W 82-79	1500.36	1448.85	53.75%	46.25%	+9.02	2-2
2021-06-01	@ Dallas Wings	L 69-79	1509.38	1427.93	58.00%	42.00%	-20.65	2-3
2021-06-03	Indiana Fever	W 98-63	1488.73	1313.02	76.09%	23.91%	+15.93	3-3
2021-06-05	Chicago Sky	W 68-63	1504.66	1428.61	64.20%	35.80%	+9.01	4-3
2021-06-10	@ Washington Mystics	L 71-89	1513.67	1457.04	54.49%	45.51%	-26.03	4-4
2021-06-12	@ Minnesota Lynx	L 64-80	1487.64	1507.98	43.46%	56.54%	-19.57	4-5
2021-06-16	Phoenix Mercury	W 85-80	1468.07	1480.35	51.88%	48.12%	+12.11	5-5
2021-06-18	Phoenix Mercury	L 66-80	1480.18	1468.24	55.35%	44.65%	-23.32	5-6
2021-06-20	New York Liberty	L 73-76	1456.86	1349.59	68.21%	31.79%	-13.30	5-7
2021-06-24	Washington Mystics	W 89-82	1443.56	1486.46	47.48%	52.52%	+15.65	6-7
2021-06-27	@ Phoenix Mercury	L 79-88	1459.21	1491.56	41.77%	58.23%	-14.11	6-8
2021-06-30	Las Vegas Aces	L 75-99	1445.10	1669.68	24.11%	75.89%	-13.30	6-9
2021-07-02	Las Vegas Aces	L 58-66	1431.80	1682.98	21.42%	78.58%	-6.82	6-10
2021-07-04	Seattle Storm	L 74-84	1424.98	1749.09	15.19%	84.81%	-5.41	6-11
2021-07-07	@ Seattle Storm	L 62-71	1419.57	1754.50	11.16%	88.84%	-3.77	6-12
2021-07-11	Minnesota Lynx	L 61-86	1415.80	1588.44	29.99%	70.01%	-16.89	6-13
2021-08-15	Indiana Fever	W 75-70	1398.91	1322.50	64.24%	35.76%	+9.00	7-13
2021-08-17	Atlanta Dream	W 85-80	1407.91	1347.49	62.10%	37.90%	+9.54	8-13
2021-08-19	Atlanta Dream	W 66-64	1417.45	1337.95	64.65%	35.35%	+5.63	9-13
2021-08-22	@ New York Liberty	W 86-83	1423.08	1354.97	56.12%	43.88%	+8.56	10-13
2021-08-24	@ Washington Mystics	L 68-78	1431.64	1415.24	48.71%	51.29%	-17.34	10-14
2021-08-26	@ Connecticut Sun	L 72-76	1414.30	1696.90	14.52%	85.48%	-3.27	10-15
2021-08-28	@ Connecticut Sun	L 61-76	1411.03	1700.17	14.06%	85.94%	-6.13	10-16
2021-08-31	@ Indiana Fever	L 72-74	1404.90	1314.14	59.30%	40.70%	-9.44	10-17
2021-09-02	@ Minnesota Lynx	L 57-66	1395.46	1615.43	19.59%	80.41%	-6.62	10-18
2021-09-09	Connecticut Sun	L 57-75	1388.84	1725.09	14.31%	85.69%	-6.84	10-19
2021-09-12	Seattle Storm	W 81-53	1382.00	1651.98	19.65%	80.35%	+47.87	11-19
2021-09-16	@ Atlanta Dream	W 74-68	1429.87	1321.18	61.77%	38.23%	+10.55	12-19
2021-09-19	@ Dallas Wings	L 84-87	1440.42	1438.64	46.61%	53.39%	-9.09	12-20
2021-05-14	Phoenix Mercury	L 75-77	1528.68	1525.97	54.03%	45.97%	-8.61	0-1
2021-05-18	@ New York Liberty	L 75-86	1520.07	1328.55	72.24%	27.76%	-26.98	0-2
2021-05-20	Seattle Storm	L 78-90	1493.09	1715.08	24.38%	75.62%	-9.51	0-3
2021-05-28	@ Seattle Storm	L 72-82	1483.58	1735.78	16.83%	83.17%	-5.99	0-4
2021-05-30	Connecticut Sun	W 79-74	1477.59	1652.05	29.77%	70.23%	+17.68	1-4
2021-06-04	Atlanta Dream	W 86-84	1495.27	1450.08	60.02%	39.98%	+6.37	2-4
2021-06-06	Atlanta Dream	W 100-80	1501.64	1443.72	61.76%	38.24%	+19.25	3-4
2021-06-08	@ Washington Mystics	L 81-85	1520.89	1444.12	57.34%	42.66%	-12.91	3-5
2021-06-12	Los Angeles Sparks	W 80-64	1507.98	1487.64	56.54%	43.46%	+19.57	4-5
2021-06-15	Chicago Sky	L 89-105	1527.55	1440.47	65.64%	34.36%	-29.56	4-6
2021-06-17	@ Dallas Wings	W 85-73	1497.99	1491.10	47.34%	52.66%	+20.54	5-6
2021-06-19	@ Dallas Wings	L 77-95	1518.53	1470.56	53.25%	46.75%	-25.44	5-7
2021-06-23	@ Atlanta Dream	W 87-85	1493.09	1432.09	55.11%	44.89%	+7.15	6-7
2021-06-25	Las Vegas Aces	W 90-89	1500.24	1665.62	30.88%	69.12%	+7.78	7-7
2021-06-30	@ Phoenix Mercury	W 82-76	1508.02	1505.66	46.69%	53.31%	+14.71	8-7
2021-07-03	@ Phoenix Mercury	W 99-68	1522.73	1490.96	50.92%	49.08%	+30.77	9-7
2021-07-07	Dallas Wings	W 85-79	1553.50	1500.63	61.07%	38.93%	+10.73	10-7
2021-07-09	@ Las Vegas Aces	W 77-67	1564.23	1669.57	32.03%	67.97%	+24.21	11-7
2021-07-11	@ Los Angeles Sparks	W 86-61	1588.44	1415.80	70.01%	29.99%	+16.88	12-7
2021-08-15	New York Liberty	W 88-78	1605.32	1346.96	83.66%	16.34%	+5.82	13-7
2021-08-17	@ Connecticut Sun	L 60-72	1611.14	1648.15	41.12%	58.88%	-16.04	13-8
2021-08-19	@ Connecticut Sun	L 71-82	1595.10	1664.19	36.73%	63.27%	-13.72	13-9
2021-08-21	@ Chicago Sky	W 101-95	1581.38	1510.18	56.56%	43.44%	+11.99	14-9
2021-08-24	Seattle Storm	W 76-70	1593.37	1717.85	36.11%	63.89%	+17.62	15-9
2021-08-31	New York Liberty	W 74-66	1610.99	1320.34	86.05%	13.95%	+4.44	16-9
2021-09-02	Los Angeles Sparks	W 66-57	1615.43	1395.46	80.41%	19.59%	+6.62	17-9
2021-09-04	Washington Mystics	W 93-75	1622.05	1419.52	78.78%	21.22%	+10.13	18-9
2021-09-08	@ Las Vegas Aces	L 81-102	1632.18	1649.46	43.89%	56.11%	-22.64	18-10
2021-09-10	Indiana Fever	W 89-72	1609.54	1308.94	86.72%	13.28%	+6.16	19-10
2021-09-12	Indiana Fever	W 90-80	1615.70	1302.78	87.52%	12.48%	+4.45	20-10
2021-09-17	@ Indiana Fever	W 92-73	1620.15	1284.93	85.61%	14.39%	+7.06	21-10
2021-09-19	@ Washington Mystics	W 83-77	1627.21	1407.84	75.34%	24.66%	+6.80	22-10
2021-05-14	Indiana Fever	W 90-87	1297.90	1373.88	42.77%	57.23%	+11.17	1-0
2021-05-16	@ Indiana Fever	W 73-65	1309.07	1362.71	38.82%	61.18%	+19.48	2-0
2021-05-18	Minnesota Lynx	W 86-75	1328.55	1520.07	27.76%	72.24%	+26.98	3-0
2021-05-21	@ Washington Mystics	L 72-101	1355.53	1441.26	34.53%	65.47%	-20.94	3-1
2021-05-23	@ Chicago Sky	W 93-85	1334.59	1515.72	23.35%	76.65%	+24.41	4-1
2021-05-24	Dallas Wings	W 88-81	1359.00	1469.73	37.96%	62.04%	+18.48	5-1
2021-05-29	Atlanta Dream	L 87-90	1377.48	1441.41	44.48%	55.52%	-8.67	5-2
2021-06-03	Las Vegas Aces	L 82-94	1368.81	1628.52	20.60%	79.40%	-8.04	5-3
2021-06-05	@ Connecticut Sun	L 64-85	1360.77	1648.53	14.15%	85.85%	-7.30	5-4
2021-06-13	@ Phoenix Mercury	W 85-83	1353.47	1491.81	28.04%	71.96%	+11.46	6-4
2021-06-15	@ Las Vegas Aces	L 78-100	1364.93	1650.28	14.32%	85.68%	-7.57	6-5
2021-06-17	@ Las Vegas Aces	L 76-103	1357.36	1657.85	13.29%	86.71%	-7.77	6-6
2021-06-20	@ Los Angeles Sparks	W 76-73	1349.59	1456.86	31.79%	68.21%	+13.30	7-6
2021-06-22	Chicago Sky	L 72-92	1362.89	1511.89	32.92%	67.08%	-16.58	7-7
2021-06-24	Chicago Sky	L 68-91	1346.31	1528.47	28.85%	71.15%	-15.58	7-8
2021-06-26	@ Atlanta Dream	W 101-78	1330.73	1424.94	33.44%	66.56%	+35.95	8-8
2021-06-29	@ Atlanta Dream	L 69-73	1366.68	1389.00	43.18%	56.82%	-9.73	8-9
2021-07-03	Washington Mystics	W 82-79	1356.95	1439.85	41.80%	58.20%	+11.35	9-9
2021-07-05	Dallas Wings	W 99-96	1368.30	1513.62	33.39%	66.61%	+12.99	10-9
2021-07-09	@ Indiana Fever	L 69-82	1381.29	1273.10	61.70%	38.30%	-25.04	10-10
2021-07-11	Connecticut Sun	L 54-71	1356.25	1622.34	20.01%	79.99%	-9.29	10-11
2021-08-15	@ Minnesota Lynx	L 78-88	1346.96	1605.32	16.34%	83.66%	-5.82	10-12
2021-08-18	Seattle Storm	W 83-79	1341.14	1726.41	11.19%	88.81%	+20.00	11-12
2021-08-20	Seattle Storm	L 83-99	1361.14	1706.41	13.69%	86.31%	-6.17	11-13
2021-08-22	Los Angeles Sparks	L 83-86	1354.97	1423.08	43.88%	56.12%	-8.55	11-14
2021-08-25	Phoenix Mercury	L 79-106	1346.42	1547.72	26.65%	73.35%	-15.59	11-15
2021-08-27	Phoenix Mercury	L 64-80	1330.83	1563.31	23.29%	76.71%	-10.49	11-16
2021-08-31	@ Minnesota Lynx	L 66-74	1320.34	1610.99	13.95%	86.05%	-4.45	11-17
2021-09-02	@ Seattle Storm	L 75-85	1315.89	1635.43	12.07%	87.93%	-4.29	11-18
2021-09-11	@ Dallas Wings	L 76-77	1311.60	1442.14	28.95%	71.05%	-3.27	11-19
2021-09-15	@ Connecticut Sun	L 69-98	1308.33	1744.40	6.56%	93.44%	-3.97	11-20
2021-09-17	Washington Mystics	W 91-80	1304.36	1431.84	35.71%	64.29%	+24.00	12-20
2021-05-14	@ Minnesota Lynx	W 77-75	1525.97	1528.68	45.97%	54.03%	+8.60	1-0
2021-05-16	@ Connecticut Sun	L 78-86	1534.57	1597.50	37.56%	62.44%	-11.96	1-1
2021-05-18	@ Washington Mystics	W 91-70	1522.61	1464.65	54.68%	45.32%	+23.39	2-1
2021-05-21	Connecticut Sun	L 67-84	1546.00	1617.58	43.39%	56.61%	-20.15	2-2
2021-05-26	Las Vegas Aces	L 79-85	1525.85	1615.45	40.86%	59.14%	-11.27	2-3
2021-05-29	@ Dallas Wings	W 89-85	1514.58	1437.53	57.38%	42.62%	+9.60	3-3
2021-06-01	@ Chicago Sky	W 84-83	1524.18	1439.83	58.41%	41.59%	+4.69	4-3
2021-06-03	Chicago Sky	W 77-74	1528.87	1435.15	66.50%	33.50%	+6.53	5-3
2021-06-08	Dallas Wings	L 81-85	1535.40	1455.71	64.68%	35.32%	-14.57	5-4
2021-06-11	Dallas Wings	L 59-77	1520.83	1470.27	60.76%	39.24%	-29.02	5-5
2021-06-13	New York Liberty	L 83-85	1491.81	1353.47	71.96%	28.04%	-11.46	5-6
2021-06-16	@ Los Angeles Sparks	L 80-85	1480.35	1468.07	48.12%	51.88%	-12.11	5-7
2021-06-18	@ Los Angeles Sparks	W 80-66	1468.24	1480.18	44.65%	55.35%	+23.32	6-7
2021-06-27	Los Angeles Sparks	W 88-79	1491.56	1459.21	58.23%	41.77%	+14.10	7-7
2021-06-30	Minnesota Lynx	L 76-82	1505.66	1508.02	53.31%	46.69%	-14.70	7-8
2021-07-03	Minnesota Lynx	L 68-99	1490.96	1522.73	49.08%	50.92%	-30.77	7-9
2021-07-07	@ Las Vegas Aces	W 99-90	1460.19	1697.24	18.08%	81.92%	+27.67	8-9
2021-07-09	Seattle Storm	W 85-77	1487.86	1758.27	19.62%	80.38%	+25.60	9-9
2021-07-11	@ Seattle Storm	L 75-82	1513.46	1732.67	19.66%	80.34%	-5.85	9-10
2021-08-15	Atlanta Dream	W 92-81	1507.61	1357.46	73.31%	26.69%	+9.96	10-10
2021-08-17	Indiana Fever	W 84-80	1517.57	1313.50	78.93%	21.07%	+4.75	11-10
2021-08-19	Washington Mystics	W 77-64	1522.32	1434.43	65.75%	34.25%	+13.91	12-10
2021-08-21	@ Atlanta Dream	W 84-69	1536.23	1332.32	73.65%	26.35%	+11.49	13-10
2021-08-25	@ New York Liberty	W 106-79	1547.72	1346.42	73.35%	26.65%	+15.59	14-10
2021-08-27	@ New York Liberty	W 80-64	1563.31	1330.83	76.71%	23.29%	+10.49	15-10
2021-08-31	Chicago Sky	W 103-83	1573.80	1571.77	53.94%	46.06%	+23.19	16-10
2021-09-04	@ Indiana Fever	W 87-65	1596.99	1323.59	80.66%	19.34%	+10.22	17-10
2021-09-06	@ Indiana Fever	W 86-81	1607.21	1313.37	82.42%	17.58%	+4.42	18-10
2021-09-08	@ Atlanta Dream	W 76-75	1611.63	1321.10	82.15%	17.85%	+2.01	19-10
2021-09-11	Connecticut Sun	L 67-76	1613.64	1731.93	36.94%	63.06%	-12.47	19-11
2021-09-17	@ Seattle Storm	L 85-94	1601.17	1604.11	45.93%	54.07%	-15.52	19-12
2021-09-19	Las Vegas Aces	L 83-84	1585.65	1700.72	37.37%	62.63%	-4.21	19-13
2021-05-15	Las Vegas Aces	W 97-83	1737.71	1590.33	73.00%	27.00%	+11.38	1-0
2021-05-18	Las Vegas Aces	L 80-96	1749.09	1578.96	75.50%	24.50%	-34.01	1-1
2021-05-20	@ Minnesota Lynx	W 90-78	1715.08	1493.09	75.62%	24.38%	+9.51	2-1
2021-05-22	@ Dallas Wings	W 100-97	1724.59	1473.92	78.53%	21.47%	+4.19	3-1
2021-05-25	Connecticut Sun	W 90-87	1728.78	1653.42	64.10%	35.90%	+7.00	4-1
2021-05-28	Minnesota Lynx	W 82-72	1735.78	1483.58	83.17%	16.83%	+5.99	5-1
2021-06-01	Indiana Fever	W 88-73	1741.77	1316.04	93.07%	6.93%	+3.03	6-1
2021-06-04	Dallas Wings	W 105-102	1744.80	1448.58	86.43%	13.57%	+2.64	7-1
2021-06-06	Dallas Wings	L 67-68	1747.44	1445.94	86.78%	13.22%	-9.77	7-2
2021-06-09	@ Atlanta Dream	W 95-71	1737.67	1424.46	83.98%	16.02%	+8.84	8-2
2021-06-11	@ Atlanta Dream	W 86-75	1746.51	1415.63	85.30%	14.70%	+5.49	9-2
2021-06-13	@ Connecticut Sun	W 89-66	1752.00	1655.83	60.05%	39.95%	+21.57	10-2
2021-06-15	@ Indiana Fever	W 87-70	1773.57	1276.21	93.80%	6.20%	+2.88	11-2
2021-06-17	@ Indiana Fever	W 79-69	1776.45	1273.33	93.99%	6.01%	+2.14	12-2
2021-06-22	Washington Mystics	L 83-87	1778.59	1466.76	87.45%	12.55%	-19.69	12-3
2021-06-27	@ Las Vegas Aces	L 92-95	1758.90	1657.84	60.72%	39.28%	-11.85	12-4
2021-07-02	Atlanta Dream	W 91-88	1747.05	1398.72	89.58%	10.42%	+2.04	13-4
2021-07-04	@ Los Angeles Sparks	W 84-74	1749.09	1424.98	84.81%	15.19%	+5.41	14-4
2021-07-07	Los Angeles Sparks	W 71-62	1754.50	1419.57	88.84%	11.16%	+3.77	15-4
2021-07-09	@ Phoenix Mercury	L 77-85	1758.27	1487.86	80.38%	19.62%	-25.60	15-5
2021-07-11	Phoenix Mercury	W 82-75	1732.67	1513.46	80.34%	19.66%	+5.85	16-5
2021-08-15	@ Chicago Sky	L 85-87	1738.52	1512.21	76.07%	23.93%	-12.11	16-6
2021-08-18	@ New York Liberty	L 79-83	1726.41	1341.14	88.81%	11.19%	-20.00	16-7
2021-08-20	@ New York Liberty	W 99-83	1706.41	1361.14	86.31%	13.69%	+6.16	17-7
2021-08-22	@ Washington Mystics	W 85-78	1712.57	1420.52	82.27%	17.73%	+5.28	18-7
2021-08-24	@ Minnesota Lynx	L 70-76	1717.85	1593.37	63.89%	36.11%	-17.62	18-8
2021-08-27	Chicago Sky	L 69-73	1700.23	1506.97	77.88%	22.12%	-17.54	18-9
2021-08-29	Chicago Sky	L 75-107	1682.69	1524.50	74.21%	25.79%	-47.26	18-10
2021-09-02	New York Liberty	W 85-75	1635.43	1315.89	87.93%	12.07%	+4.30	19-10
2021-09-07	Washington Mystics	W 105-71	1639.73	1409.38	81.34%	18.66%	+12.25	20-10
2021-09-12	@ Los Angeles Sparks	L 53-81	1651.98	1382.00	80.35%	19.65%	-47.87	20-11
2021-09-17	Phoenix Mercury	W 94-85	1604.11	1601.17	54.07%	45.93%	+15.51	21-11
2021-05-15	Chicago Sky	L 56-70	1487.73	1479.71	54.79%	45.21%	-23.08	0-1
2021-05-18	Phoenix Mercury	L 70-91	1464.65	1522.61	45.32%	54.68%	-23.39	0-2
2021-05-21	New York Liberty	W 101-72	1441.26	1355.53	65.47%	34.53%	+20.94	1-2
2021-05-23	@ Indiana Fever	L 77-89	1462.20	1325.07	65.55%	34.45%	-25.57	1-3
2021-05-25	@ Indiana Fever	W 85-69	1436.63	1350.64	58.64%	41.36%	+18.63	2-3
2021-05-28	@ Connecticut Sun	L 81-86	1455.26	1646.42	22.33%	77.67%	-5.62	2-4
2021-06-05	Las Vegas Aces	L 93-96	1449.64	1636.56	28.29%	71.71%	-5.52	2-5
2021-06-08	Minnesota Lynx	W 85-81	1444.12	1520.89	42.66%	57.34%	+12.92	3-5
2021-06-10	Los Angeles Sparks	W 89-71	1457.04	1513.67	45.51%	54.49%	+26.03	4-5
2021-06-13	@ Atlanta Dream	L 78-101	1483.07	1410.14	56.80%	43.20%	-30.68	4-6
2021-06-17	Atlanta Dream	W 96-93	1452.39	1440.81	55.30%	44.70%	+8.72	5-6
2021-06-19	Indiana Fever	W 82-77	1461.11	1271.20	77.54%	22.46%	+5.65	6-6
2021-06-22	@ Seattle Storm	W 87-83	1466.76	1778.59	12.55%	87.45%	+19.70	7-6
2021-06-24	@ Los Angeles Sparks	L 82-89	1486.46	1443.56	52.52%	47.48%	-15.65	7-7
2021-06-26	@ Dallas Wings	L 74-85	1470.81	1498.12	42.48%	57.52%	-15.86	7-8
2021-06-29	Connecticut Sun	L 71-90	1454.95	1621.30	30.76%	69.24%	-15.10	7-9
2021-07-03	@ New York Liberty	L 79-82	1439.85	1356.95	58.20%	41.80%	-11.35	7-10
2021-07-10	@ Chicago Sky	W 89-85	1428.50	1527.33	32.85%	67.15%	+15.12	8-10
2021-08-15	@ Las Vegas Aces	L 83-84	1443.62	1659.83	19.93%	80.07%	-2.24	8-11
2021-08-17	@ Las Vegas Aces	L 83-93	1441.38	1662.07	19.52%	80.48%	-6.95	8-12
2021-08-19	@ Phoenix Mercury	L 64-77	1434.43	1522.32	34.25%	65.75%	-13.91	8-13
2021-08-22	Seattle Storm	L 78-85	1420.52	1712.57	17.73%	82.27%	-5.28	8-14
2021-08-24	Los Angeles Sparks	W 78-68	1415.24	1431.64	51.29%	48.71%	+17.35	9-14
2021-08-26	Dallas Wings	L 77-82	1432.59	1461.13	49.55%	50.45%	-12.48	9-15
2021-08-28	Dallas Wings	W 76-75	1420.11	1473.60	45.96%	54.04%	+6.09	10-15
2021-08-31	Connecticut Sun	L 75-85	1426.20	1706.30	18.75%	81.25%	-6.68	10-16
2021-09-04	@ Minnesota Lynx	L 75-93	1419.52	1622.05	21.22%	78.78%	-10.14	10-17
2021-09-07	@ Seattle Storm	L 71-105	1409.38	1639.73	18.66%	81.34%	-12.25	10-18
2021-09-10	Atlanta Dream	W 82-74	1397.13	1319.09	64.46%	35.54%	+11.32	11-18
2021-09-12	@ Chicago Sky	W 79-71	1408.45	1559.90	26.54%	73.46%	+23.39	12-18
2021-09-17	@ New York Liberty	L 80-91	1431.84	1304.36	64.29%	35.71%	-24.00	12-19
2021-09-19	Minnesota Lynx	L 77-83	1407.84	1627.21	24.66%	75.34%	-6.81	12-20

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2021-09-23	Dallas Wings	W 81-64	1521.42	1447.73	63.88%	36.12%	+16.77	1-0
2021-09-26	@ Minnesota Lynx	W 89-76	1538.19	1634.01	33.23%	66.77%	+27.11	2-0
2021-09-28	@ Connecticut Sun	W 101-95	1565.30	1751.66	22.81%	77.19%	+21.28	3-0
2021-09-30	@ Connecticut Sun	L 68-79	1586.58	1730.37	27.41%	72.59%	-10.23	3-1
2021-10-03	Connecticut Sun	W 86-83	1576.35	1740.60	31.01%	68.99%	+13.45	4-1
2021-10-06	Connecticut Sun	W 79-69	1589.80	1727.15	34.42%	65.58%	+23.35	5-1
2021-10-10	@ Phoenix Mercury	W 91-77	1613.15	1645.82	41.72%	58.28%	+24.55	6-1
2021-10-13	@ Phoenix Mercury	L 86-91	1637.70	1621.27	48.71%	51.29%	-12.26	6-2
2021-10-15	Phoenix Mercury	W 86-50	1625.44	1633.53	52.49%	47.51%	+32.10	7-2
2021-10-17	Phoenix Mercury	W 80-74	1657.54	1601.43	61.52%	38.48%	+10.61	8-2
2021-09-28	Chicago Sky	L 95-101	1751.66	1565.30	77.19%	22.81%	-21.29	0-1
2021-09-30	Chicago Sky	W 79-68	1730.37	1586.58	72.59%	27.41%	+10.23	1-1
2021-10-03	@ Chicago Sky	L 83-86	1740.60	1576.35	68.99%	31.01%	-13.45	1-2
2021-10-06	@ Chicago Sky	L 69-79	1727.15	1589.80	65.58%	34.42%	-23.35	1-3
2021-09-23	@ Chicago Sky	L 64-81	1447.73	1521.42	36.12%	63.88%	-16.77	0-1
2021-09-28	Phoenix Mercury	W 96-90	1704.92	1598.13	68.15%	31.85%	+8.79	1-0
2021-09-30	Phoenix Mercury	L 91-117	1713.71	1589.35	70.31%	29.69%	-40.37	1-1
2021-10-03	@ Phoenix Mercury	L 60-87	1673.34	1629.71	52.62%	47.38%	-30.79	1-2
2021-10-06	@ Phoenix Mercury	W 93-76	1642.55	1660.50	43.80%	56.20%	+26.10	2-2
2021-10-08	Phoenix Mercury	L 84-87	1668.65	1634.41	58.50%	41.50%	-11.41	2-3
2021-09-26	Chicago Sky	L 76-89	1634.01	1538.19	66.77%	33.23%	-27.11	0-1
2021-09-23	@ Phoenix Mercury	L 82-83	1328.36	1581.44	16.76%	83.24%	-1.88	0-1
2021-09-23	New York Liberty	W 83-82	1581.44	1328.36	83.24%	16.76%	+1.89	1-0
2021-09-26	@ Seattle Storm	W 85-80	1583.33	1619.62	41.22%	58.78%	+14.80	2-0
2021-09-28	@ Las Vegas Aces	L 90-96	1598.13	1704.92	31.85%	68.15%	-8.78	2-1
2021-09-30	@ Las Vegas Aces	W 117-91	1589.35	1713.71	29.69%	70.31%	+40.36	3-1
2021-10-03	Las Vegas Aces	W 87-60	1629.71	1673.34	47.38%	52.62%	+30.79	4-1
2021-10-06	Las Vegas Aces	L 76-93	1660.50	1642.55	56.20%	43.80%	-26.09	4-2
2021-10-08	@ Las Vegas Aces	W 87-84	1634.41	1668.65	41.50%	58.50%	+11.41	5-2
2021-10-10	Chicago Sky	L 77-91	1645.82	1613.15	58.28%	41.72%	-24.55	5-3
2021-10-13	Chicago Sky	W 91-86	1621.27	1637.70	51.29%	48.71%	+12.26	6-3
2021-10-15	@ Chicago Sky	L 50-86	1633.53	1625.44	47.51%	52.49%	-32.10	6-4
2021-10-17	@ Chicago Sky	L 74-80	1601.43	1657.54	38.48%	61.52%	-10.61	6-5
2021-09-26	Phoenix Mercury	L 80-85	1619.62	1583.33	58.78%	41.22%	-14.80	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2021-07-03	10.87%	@ Indiana Fever	1248.52	73	Connecticut Sun	1639.49	67
2	2021-08-18	11.19%	@ New York Liberty	1341.14	83	Seattle Storm	1726.41	79
3	2021-06-22	12.55%	Washington Mystics	1466.76	87	@ Seattle Storm	1778.59	83
4	2021-06-06	13.22%	Dallas Wings	1445.94	68	@ Seattle Storm	1747.44	67
5	2021-07-07	18.08%	Phoenix Mercury	1460.19	99	@ Las Vegas Aces	1697.24	90
6	2021-07-09	19.62%	@ Phoenix Mercury	1487.86	85	Seattle Storm	1758.27	77
7	2021-09-12	19.65%	@ Los Angeles Sparks	1382.00	81	Seattle Storm	1651.98	53
8	2021-08-27	22.12%	Chicago Sky	1506.97	73	@ Seattle Storm	1700.23	69
9	2021-09-28 *	22.81%	Chicago Sky	1565.30	101	@ Connecticut Sun	1751.66	95
10	2021-05-23	23.35%	New York Liberty	1334.59	93	@ Chicago Sky	1515.72	85
11	2021-08-15	23.93%	@ Chicago Sky	1512.21	87	Seattle Storm	1738.52	85
12	2021-09-05	24.38%	Atlanta Dream	1302.06	69	@ Dallas Wings	1473.29	64
13	2021-05-18	24.50%	Las Vegas Aces	1578.96	96	@ Seattle Storm	1749.09	80
14	2021-08-20	25.13%	Indiana Fever	1308.75	83	@ Dallas Wings	1473.05	81
15	2021-08-29	25.79%	Chicago Sky	1524.50	107	@ Seattle Storm	1682.69	75
16	2021-09-12	26.54%	Washington Mystics	1408.45	79	@ Chicago Sky	1559.90	71
17	2021-05-18	27.76%	@ New York Liberty	1328.55	86	Minnesota Lynx	1520.07	75
18	2021-06-13	28.04%	New York Liberty	1353.47	85	@ Phoenix Mercury	1491.81	83
19	2021-09-30 *	29.69%	Phoenix Mercury	1589.35	117	@ Las Vegas Aces	1713.71	91
20	2021-05-30	29.77%	@ Minnesota Lynx	1477.59	79	Connecticut Sun	1652.05	74
21	2021-06-25	30.88%	@ Minnesota Lynx	1500.24	90	Las Vegas Aces	1665.62	89
22	2021-10-03 *	31.01%	@ Chicago Sky	1576.35	86	Connecticut Sun	1740.60	83
23	2021-06-17	31.02%	@ Chicago Sky	1470.04	81	Connecticut Sun	1634.26	75
24	2021-06-20	31.79%	New York Liberty	1349.59	76	@ Los Angeles Sparks	1456.86	73
25	2021-07-09	32.03%	Minnesota Lynx	1564.23	77	@ Las Vegas Aces	1669.57	67

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2021-09-12	47.87	@ Los Angeles Sparks	81	1382.00	19.65%	Seattle Storm	53	1651.98	80.35%
2	2021-08-29	47.27	Chicago Sky	107	1524.50	25.79%	@ Seattle Storm	75	1682.69	74.21%
3	2021-09-30 *	40.37	Phoenix Mercury	117	1589.35	29.69%	@ Las Vegas Aces	91	1713.71	70.31%
4	2021-06-26	35.95	New York Liberty	101	1330.73	33.44%	@ Atlanta Dream	78	1424.94	66.56%
5	2021-05-14	35.89	Dallas Wings	94	1438.03	33.55%	@ Los Angeles Sparks	71	1531.38	66.45%
6	2021-05-18	34.01	Las Vegas Aces	96	1578.96	24.50%	@ Seattle Storm	80	1749.09	75.50%
7	2021-10-15 *	32.10	@ Chicago Sky	86	1625.44	52.49%	Phoenix Mercury	50	1633.53	47.51%
8	2021-10-03 *	30.79	@ Phoenix Mercury	87	1629.71	47.38%	Las Vegas Aces	60	1673.34	52.62%
9	2021-07-03	30.77	Minnesota Lynx	99	1522.73	50.92%	@ Phoenix Mercury	68	1490.96	49.08%
10	2021-06-13	30.68	@ Atlanta Dream	101	1410.14	43.20%	Washington Mystics	78	1483.07	56.80%
11	2021-06-15	29.57	Chicago Sky	105	1440.47	34.36%	@ Minnesota Lynx	89	1527.55	65.64%
12	2021-06-11	29.03	Dallas Wings	77	1470.27	39.24%	@ Phoenix Mercury	59	1520.83	60.76%
13	2021-07-07	27.67	Phoenix Mercury	99	1460.19	18.08%	@ Las Vegas Aces	90	1697.24	81.92%
14	2021-09-26 *	27.11	Chicago Sky	89	1538.19	33.23%	@ Minnesota Lynx	76	1634.01	66.77%
15	2021-05-18	26.98	@ New York Liberty	86	1328.55	27.76%	Minnesota Lynx	75	1520.07	72.24%
16	2021-10-06 *	26.10	Las Vegas Aces	93	1642.55	43.80%	@ Phoenix Mercury	76	1660.50	56.20%
17	2021-06-10	26.03	@ Washington Mystics	89	1457.04	45.51%	Los Angeles Sparks	71	1513.67	54.49%
18	2021-07-09	25.60	@ Phoenix Mercury	85	1487.86	19.62%	Seattle Storm	77	1758.27	80.38%
19	2021-05-23	25.57	@ Indiana Fever	89	1325.07	34.45%	Washington Mystics	77	1462.20	65.55%
20	2021-06-19	25.44	@ Dallas Wings	95	1470.56	46.75%	Minnesota Lynx	77	1518.53	53.25%
21	2021-07-09	25.05	@ Indiana Fever	82	1273.10	38.30%	New York Liberty	69	1381.29	61.70%
22	2021-07-03	24.59	@ Indiana Fever	73	1248.52	10.87%	Connecticut Sun	67	1639.49	89.13%
23	2021-10-10 *	24.55	Chicago Sky	91	1613.15	41.72%	@ Phoenix Mercury	77	1645.82	58.28%
24	2021-05-23	24.42	New York Liberty	93	1334.59	23.35%	@ Chicago Sky	85	1515.72	76.65%
25	2021-07-11	24.35	Indiana Fever	79	1298.15	34.80%	@ Atlanta Dream	68	1381.81	65.20%