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2009 WNBA Season

221 regular-season games · 8 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Phoenix Mercury

2nd Title

Last Title: 2007

Runner-Up

Indiana Fever

1st Appearance

Biggest Overachiever

Phoenix Mercury

4.83 wins above expected

23 wins · 18.17 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

New York Liberty

3.87 wins below expected

13 wins · 16.87 expected wins

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

# Team W L Pct GB PPG OPP DIFF SimW vsSim
1 Indiana Fever League 22 12 .647 - 76.6 73.6 +3.1 18.84 +3.16
2 Atlanta Dream Playoffs 18 16 .529 4 84.1 82.3 +1.9 14.79 +3.21
3 Detroit Shock Playoffs 18 16 .529 4 78.0 77.8 +0.2 17.90 +0.10
4 Washington Mystics Playoffs 16 18 .471 6 76.0 77.1 -1.1 15.69 +0.31
5 Chicago Sky 16 18 .471 6 75.7 79.2 -3.5 15.63 +0.37
6 Connecticut Sun 16 18 .471 6 78.0 78.1 -0.1 17.92 -1.92
7 New York Liberty 13 21 .382 9 73.9 74.6 -0.7 16.87 -3.87
# Team W L Pct GB PPG OPP DIFF SimW vsSim
1 Phoenix Mercury League 23 11 .676 - 92.8 89.1 +3.7 18.17 +4.83
2 Seattle Storm Playoffs 20 14 .588 3 74.8 72.8 +2.0 18.42 +1.58
3 Los Angeles Sparks Playoffs 18 16 .529 5 74.5 73.5 +1.0 17.25 +0.75
4 San Antonio Silver Stars Playoffs 15 19 .441 8 76.9 78.3 -1.4 17.04 -2.04
5 Minnesota Lynx 14 20 .412 9 80.3 83.1 -2.8 16.70 -2.70
6 Sacramento Monarchs 12 22 .353 11 76.8 79.1 -2.4 15.77 -3.77

Playoff Bracket

Eastern Conference

Conference Semifinals

Detroit Shock 2
Atlanta Dream 0

2 games · Sep 16–Sep 18

Indiana Fever 2
Washington Mystics 0

2 games · Sep 17–Sep 19

Conference Final

Indiana Fever 2
Detroit Shock 1

3 games · Sep 23–Sep 26

Western Conference

Conference Semifinals

Los Angeles Sparks 2
Seattle Storm 1

3 games · Sep 16–Sep 20

Phoenix Mercury 2
San Antonio Silver Stars 1

3 games · Sep 17–Sep 21

Conference Final

Phoenix Mercury 2
Los Angeles Sparks 1

3 games · Sep 23–Sep 26

WNBA Finals

Phoenix Mercury 3
Indiana Fever 2

5 games · Sep 29–Oct 9

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team Conference Division Elo Actual Avg. Wins Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Phoenix Mercury Western 1561 23 18.17 +4.83 97.24% 6 14 16 18 20 23 29
Indiana Fever Eastern 1540 22 18.84 +3.16 90.71% 6 14 17 19 21 23 30
Seattle Storm Western 1537 20 18.42 +1.58 77.11% 8 14 17 18 20 23 31
Detroit Shock Eastern 1533 18 17.90 +0.10 58.41% 6 13 16 18 20 22 29
Los Angeles Sparks Western 1522 18 17.25 +0.75 67.37% 6 13 15 17 19 22 29
Connecticut Sun Eastern 1499 16 17.92 -1.92 30.51% 6 13 16 18 20 22 30
San Antonio Silver Stars Western 1494 15 17.04 -2.04 29.09% 6 13 15 17 19 22 29
Atlanta Dream Eastern 1482 18 14.79 +3.21 91.05% 4 10 13 15 17 19 27
New York Liberty Eastern 1477 13 16.87 -3.87 11.08% 5 12 15 17 19 21 28
Sacramento Monarchs Western 1469 12 15.77 -3.77 11.95% 4 11 14 16 18 20 28
Washington Mystics Eastern 1464 16 15.69 +0.31 61.78% 4 11 14 16 18 20 27
Minnesota Lynx Western 1463 14 16.70 -2.70 21.27% 6 12 15 17 19 21 28
Chicago Sky Eastern 1460 16 15.63 +0.37 62.36% 4 11 14 16 18 20 28

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within Eastern

Team Dream Sky Sun Shock Fever Liberty Mystics
Atlanta Dream —
0-3
(1.5 exp.)
3-1
(1.7 exp.)
3-1
(1.7 exp.)
1-2
(1.1 exp.)
1-3
(1.8 exp.)
2-2
(1.9 exp.)
Chicago Sky
3-0
(1.5 exp.)
 —
2-1
(1.5 exp.)
0-4
(1.8 exp.)
1-3
(1.6 exp.)
2-2
(1.9 exp.)
2-2
(2.0 exp.)
Connecticut Sun
1-3
(2.3 exp.)
1-2
(1.5 exp.)
 —
2-2
(2.0 exp.)
2-2
(1.9 exp.)
3-1
(2.1 exp.)
1-2
(1.9 exp.)
Detroit Shock
1-3
(2.3 exp.)
4-0
(2.2 exp.)
2-2
(2.0 exp.)
 —
1-3
(2.0 exp.)
2-1
(1.8 exp.)
1-2
(1.5 exp.)
Indiana Fever
2-1
(1.9 exp.)
3-1
(2.4 exp.)
2-2
(2.1 exp.)
3-1
(2.0 exp.)
 —
3-0
(1.5 exp.)
4-0
(2.3 exp.)
New York Liberty
3-1
(2.2 exp.)
2-2
(2.1 exp.)
1-3
(1.9 exp.)
1-2
(1.2 exp.)
0-3
(1.5 exp.)
 —
2-2
(2.1 exp.)
Washington Mystics
2-2
(2.1 exp.)
2-2
(2.0 exp.)
2-1
(1.1 exp.)
2-1
(1.5 exp.)
0-4
(1.7 exp.)
2-2
(1.9 exp.)
 —

Eastern vs. Outside Teams

Team Sparks Lynx Mercury Monarchs Stars Storm
Atlanta Dream
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
Chicago Sky
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
2-0
(0.8 exp.)
Connecticut Sun
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
Detroit Shock
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
Indiana Fever
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(1.2 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
New York Liberty
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
Washington Mystics
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)

Within Western

Team Sparks Lynx Mercury Monarchs Stars Storm
Los Angeles Sparks —
3-1
(2.1 exp.)
1-3
(1.9 exp.)
3-1
(2.1 exp.)
2-2
(2.1 exp.)
2-2
(1.8 exp.)
Minnesota Lynx
1-3
(1.9 exp.)
 —
2-2
(1.9 exp.)
2-2
(2.1 exp.)
1-3
(1.9 exp.)
1-3
(1.8 exp.)
Phoenix Mercury
3-1
(2.1 exp.)
2-2
(2.1 exp.)
 —
3-1
(2.2 exp.)
2-2
(2.1 exp.)
3-1
(2.0 exp.)
Sacramento Monarchs
1-3
(1.9 exp.)
2-2
(1.9 exp.)
1-3
(1.8 exp.)
 —
2-2
(1.8 exp.)
0-4
(1.8 exp.)
San Antonio Silver Stars
2-2
(1.9 exp.)
3-1
(2.1 exp.)
2-2
(1.9 exp.)
2-2
(2.2 exp.)
 —
1-3
(1.9 exp.)
Seattle Storm
2-2
(2.2 exp.)
3-1
(2.2 exp.)
1-3
(2.0 exp.)
4-0
(2.2 exp.)
3-1
(2.1 exp.)
 —

Western vs. Outside Teams

Team Dream Sky Sun Shock Fever Liberty Mystics
Los Angeles Sparks
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
Minnesota Lynx
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
Phoenix Mercury
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
Sacramento Monarchs
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
2-0
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
San Antonio Silver Stars
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
Seattle Storm
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
0-2
(1.2 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.2 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range
↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50——0.23%————0.23%
50–59—0.45%3.62%0.45%0.90%——5.43%
60–690.23%3.62%5.88%7.92%2.71%0.90%—21.27%
70–79—0.45%7.92%6.79%7.92%2.04%0.23%25.34%
80–89—0.90%2.71%7.92%7.24%7.24%2.04%28.05%
90–99——0.90%2.04%7.24%3.62%1.36%15.16%
100+———0.23%2.04%1.36%0.90%4.52%
Total0.23%5.43%21.27%25.34%28.05%15.16%4.52%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 78.35 78.35 +0.00
SD 12.38 12.38 12.06
CV 0.16 0.16 —
Max 115 115 +30
Min 47 47 -30

Games Played: 221

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50————————
50–59————————
60–69——2.94%2.94%5.88%——11.76%
70–79——5.88%5.88%5.88%——17.65%
80–89——2.94%8.82%14.71%11.76%2.94%41.18%
90–99———2.94%11.76%8.82%—23.53%
100+———2.94%2.94%——5.88%
Total——11.76%23.53%41.18%20.59%2.94%100%

Atlanta Dream — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 84.15 82.26 +1.88
SD 10.80 9.34 10.87
CV 0.13 0.11 —
Max 106 100 +30
Min 64 62 -18

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50————————
50–59——2.94%—2.94%——5.88%
60–69—2.94%2.94%14.71%2.94%2.94%—26.47%
70–79——2.94%11.76%14.71%2.94%—32.35%
80–89———14.71%5.88%—2.94%23.53%
90–99———2.94%2.94%2.94%2.94%11.76%
100+————————
Total—2.94%8.82%44.12%29.41%8.82%5.88%100%

Chicago Sky — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 75.68 79.21 -3.53
SD 11.56 10.33 11.76
CV 0.15 0.13 —
Max 99 106 +19
Min 54 57 -30

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50————————
50–59——2.94%————2.94%
60–69—5.88%5.88%2.94%2.94%——17.65%
70–79—2.94%5.88%5.88%8.82%5.88%—29.41%
80–89——5.88%5.88%5.88%17.65%—35.29%
90–99——5.88%—2.94%5.88%—14.71%
100+————————
Total—8.82%26.47%14.71%20.59%29.41%—100%

Connecticut Sun — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 77.97 78.06 -0.09
SD 11.02 13.04 13.17
CV 0.14 0.17 —
Max 98 95 +30
Min 53 53 -24

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50————————
50–59——2.94%2.94%2.94%——8.82%
60–69—2.94%5.88%5.88%5.88%——20.59%
70–79——8.82%8.82%5.88%——23.53%
80–89—2.94%2.94%8.82%2.94%2.94%2.94%23.53%
90–99———2.94%8.82%8.82%—20.59%
100+—————2.94%—2.94%
Total—5.88%20.59%29.41%26.47%14.71%2.94%100%

Detroit Shock — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 78.00 77.76 +0.24
SD 12.40 12.26 11.76
CV 0.16 0.16 —
Max 101 100 +29
Min 54 52 -23

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50————————
50–59————————
60–69—8.82%8.82%8.82%2.94%——29.41%
70–79——14.71%5.88%2.94%2.94%—26.47%
80–89—5.88%—14.71%8.82%2.94%—32.35%
90–99————8.82%—2.94%11.76%
100+————————
Total—14.71%23.53%29.41%23.53%5.88%2.94%100%

Indiana Fever — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 76.65 73.56 +3.09
SD 9.88 12.83 11.63
CV 0.13 0.17 —
Max 94 106 +29
Min 60 53 -22

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50————————
50–59—2.94%2.94%—2.94%——8.82%
60–692.94%—11.76%8.82%———23.53%
70–79—2.94%17.65%5.88%14.71%——41.18%
80–89—2.94%—2.94%2.94%2.94%2.94%14.71%
90–99——2.94%—5.88%2.94%—11.76%
100+————————
Total2.94%8.82%35.29%17.65%26.47%5.88%2.94%100%

Los Angeles Sparks — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 74.50 73.47 +1.03
SD 10.25 13.67 13.34
CV 0.14 0.19 —
Max 91 104 +29
Min 52 47 -29

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50————————
50–59————————
60–69—2.94%—11.76%5.88%5.88%—26.47%
70–79——2.94%8.82%8.82%2.94%—23.53%
80–89———5.88%8.82%5.88%2.94%23.53%
90–99———2.94%8.82%5.88%—17.65%
100+————5.88%2.94%—8.82%
Total—2.94%2.94%29.41%38.24%23.53%2.94%100%

Minnesota Lynx — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 80.32 83.15 -2.82
SD 13.13 9.40 13.84
CV 0.16 0.11 —
Max 109 104 +29
Min 61 57 -29

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50————————
50–59——11.76%————11.76%
60–69—2.94%14.71%8.82%———26.47%
70–79——8.82%5.88%5.88%2.94%—23.53%
80–89——11.76%—14.71%8.82%—35.29%
90–99————2.94%——2.94%
100+————————
Total—2.94%47.06%14.71%23.53%11.76%—100%

New York Liberty — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 73.88 74.56 -0.68
SD 11.03 11.37 10.15
CV 0.15 0.15 —
Max 93 96 +21
Min 54 59 -19

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50————————
50–59————————
60–69————————
70–79————2.94%2.94%2.94%8.82%
80–89———2.94%2.94%14.71%5.88%26.47%
90–99———5.88%23.53%5.88%2.94%38.24%
100+————11.76%8.82%5.88%26.47%
Total———8.82%41.18%32.35%17.65%100%

Phoenix Mercury — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 92.82 89.15 +3.68
SD 9.81 9.72 13.60
CV 0.11 0.11 —
Max 115 109 +24
Min 71 70 -30

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50——2.94%————2.94%
50–59—2.94%8.82%————11.76%
60–69——5.88%5.88%2.94%——14.71%
70–79——2.94%5.88%14.71%——23.53%
80–89——5.88%8.82%2.94%—5.88%23.53%
90–99———8.82%—2.94%2.94%14.71%
100+—————2.94%5.88%8.82%
Total—2.94%26.47%29.41%20.59%5.88%14.71%100%

Sacramento Monarchs — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 76.76 79.12 -2.35
SD 15.05 14.34 12.87
CV 0.20 0.18 —
Max 105 115 +22
Min 47 59 -20

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50————————
50–59——5.88%2.94%———8.82%
60–69—5.88%5.88%11.76%———23.53%
70–79——2.94%5.88%5.88%5.88%—20.59%
80–89——2.94%8.82%11.76%11.76%—35.29%
90–99————2.94%—2.94%5.88%
100+————5.88%——5.88%
Total—5.88%17.65%29.41%26.47%17.65%2.94%100%

San Antonio Silver Stars — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 76.91 78.26 -1.35
SD 12.78 12.39 10.61
CV 0.17 0.16 —
Max 106 101 +19
Min 53 52 -17

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50————————
50–59——5.88%—2.94%——8.82%
60–69—14.71%5.88%8.82%———29.41%
70–79——14.71%8.82%2.94%——26.47%
80–89———8.82%5.88%5.88%—20.59%
90–99——2.94%—8.82%—2.94%14.71%
100+————————
Total—14.71%29.41%26.47%20.59%5.88%2.94%100%

Seattle Storm — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 74.82 72.82 +2.00
SD 11.33 12.22 11.09
CV 0.15 0.17 —
Max 98 101 +28
Min 53 53 -27

Games Played: 34

↓ Scored | Allowed →<5050–5960–6970–7980–8990–99100+Total
<50————————
50–59——2.94%————2.94%
60–69——5.88%11.76%5.88%2.94%—26.47%
70–79——14.71%8.82%8.82%——32.35%
80–89——2.94%11.76%5.88%8.82%—29.41%
90–99————5.88%2.94%—8.82%
100+————————
Total——26.47%32.35%26.47%14.71%—100%

Washington Mystics — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 76.03 77.12 -1.09
SD 9.36 10.24 10.82
CV 0.12 0.13 —
Max 94 96 +18
Min 59 60 -29

Games Played: 34

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.23 +3.1
Allowed 0.01 +0.8
Differential 0.75 +12.6

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Phoenix Mercury 23 18.17 +4.83
2 Atlanta Dream 18 14.79 +3.21
3 Indiana Fever 22 18.84 +3.16
4 Seattle Storm 20 18.42 +1.58
5 Los Angeles Sparks 18 17.25 +0.75

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 New York Liberty 13 16.87 -3.87
2 Sacramento Monarchs 12 15.77 -3.77
3 Minnesota Lynx 14 16.70 -2.70
4 San Antonio Silver Stars 15 17.04 -2.04
5 Connecticut Sun 16 17.92 -1.92

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Indiana Fever 11 Jun 9 – Jul 17 1 in 496
2 Los Angeles Sparks 6 Aug 15 – Aug 25 1 in 50
3 Atlanta Dream 4 Jul 22 – Aug 6 1 in 41
4 Phoenix Mercury 6 Jul 1 – Jul 18 1 in 33
5 Seattle Storm 6 Aug 18 – Sep 1 1 in 29

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 New York Liberty 5 Jul 23 – Aug 4 1 in 58
2 Detroit Shock 4 Jun 10 – Jun 26 1 in 34
3 Minnesota Lynx 6 Aug 9 – Aug 23 1 in 31
4 Sacramento Monarchs 6 Jun 13 – Jun 30 1 in 21
5 Indiana Fever 3 Aug 29 – Sep 4 1 in 19

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team1234567
Indiana Fever31.99%21.70%16.24%11.96%8.80%5.99%3.32%
Connecticut Sun20.79%19.78%17.27%14.77%12.25%9.14%6.00%
Detroit Shock20.46%19.68%17.55%14.78%12.24%9.24%6.05%
New York Liberty11.75%14.66%16.14%16.46%15.80%14.06%11.13%
Washington Mystics5.85%9.23%12.05%15.09%17.46%19.67%20.64%
Chicago Sky5.89%8.95%12.02%14.68%17.17%19.92%21.38%
Atlanta Dream3.27%6.01%8.74%12.25%16.28%21.97%31.47%
Team123456
Seattle Storm27.67%21.45%17.33%14.31%11.38%7.86%
Phoenix Mercury24.65%20.73%17.64%15.18%12.52%9.27%
Los Angeles Sparks15.31%17.13%17.80%17.58%16.91%15.27%
San Antonio Silver Stars13.96%16.14%17.24%17.80%17.98%16.87%
Minnesota Lynx11.56%14.33%16.64%18.13%19.50%19.83%
Sacramento Monarchs6.84%10.22%13.35%17.00%21.70%30.89%
Team12345678910111213
Indiana Fever18.01%13.88%11.73%10.14%8.96%7.61%6.82%5.82%5.07%4.12%3.56%2.60%1.67%
Seattle Storm14.44%12.65%11.18%10.14%8.91%7.98%7.34%6.62%5.80%5.04%4.23%3.35%2.31%
Phoenix Mercury12.65%11.57%10.66%9.81%9.03%8.30%7.72%6.98%6.16%5.61%4.81%3.95%2.76%
Connecticut Sun10.85%10.56%9.98%9.56%9.00%8.54%7.94%7.44%6.92%6.12%5.39%4.39%3.33%
Detroit Shock10.68%10.46%9.98%9.52%9.04%8.51%8.07%7.47%6.83%6.28%5.36%4.42%3.38%
Los Angeles Sparks7.30%7.97%8.39%8.50%8.56%8.52%8.35%8.19%7.86%7.62%7.04%6.50%5.20%
San Antonio Silver Stars6.34%7.32%7.94%8.13%8.20%8.40%8.29%8.17%8.41%8.04%7.77%7.13%5.86%
New York Liberty5.59%6.59%7.33%7.61%8.08%8.37%8.43%8.64%8.56%8.48%8.06%7.56%6.69%
Minnesota Lynx5.18%6.24%6.84%7.39%7.85%8.23%8.30%8.59%8.62%8.72%8.51%8.16%7.38%
Sacramento Monarchs2.74%3.83%4.67%5.46%6.17%6.76%7.54%8.36%9.00%9.79%10.96%11.93%12.80%
Washington Mystics2.43%3.55%4.25%5.12%6.06%6.82%7.67%8.30%9.28%10.18%10.92%12.10%13.34%
Chicago Sky2.52%3.38%4.34%5.10%5.81%6.78%7.42%8.16%8.98%10.10%11.05%12.48%13.88%
Atlanta Dream1.26%1.99%2.71%3.54%4.33%5.20%6.12%7.26%8.52%9.92%12.34%15.43%21.39%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 SeedMissed Playoffs
Indiana Fever31.99%21.70%16.24%11.96%18.12%
Connecticut Sun20.79%19.78%17.27%14.77%27.39%
Detroit Shock20.46%19.68%17.55%14.78%27.53%
New York Liberty11.75%14.66%16.14%16.46%40.99%
Chicago Sky5.89%8.95%12.02%14.68%58.46%
Washington Mystics5.85%9.23%12.05%15.09%57.78%
Atlanta Dream3.27%6.01%8.74%12.25%69.73%
Team1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 SeedMissed Playoffs
Seattle Storm27.67%21.45%17.33%14.31%19.24%
Phoenix Mercury24.65%20.73%17.64%15.18%21.80%
Los Angeles Sparks15.31%17.13%17.80%17.58%32.18%
San Antonio Silver Stars13.96%16.14%17.24%17.80%34.86%
Minnesota Lynx11.56%14.33%16.64%18.13%39.34%
Sacramento Monarchs6.84%10.22%13.35%17.00%52.59%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points that 1 point is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 point at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt
Average home points - average away points per game. The gold line represents the expected home points edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -3.2 · Lean Road: -3.2 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 3.2 · Home-Tilted: 3.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeAway
+28.51%
Fortress
64.25%35.75%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 101.86 Elo pts.
28 Elo
0.035 points per Elo point
080
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+4.04 points
Home-Tilted
-8+3.61+8

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd · Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 7th · Longshot: 8th or lower.
Title Run Odds
Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 6.25% · Tough Road: 6.25% to 12.5% · Favored: 12.5% to 25% · Heavy Favorite: 25% and up.
Title-Race Openness
8.6
Wide Open
124812
Champion Preseason Odds
18%
Phoenix Mercury, 1st of 13
LongshotFavorite
Title Run Odds
Coin-flip
27.4%
Heavy Favorite
012.50%40%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual wins total and their simulated average wins total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 2.22 · As Expected: 2.22 to 3.06 · Elevated: 3.06 to 4.17 · High Variance: 4.17 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 2.76 · Close: 2.76 to 3.74 · Off Target: 3.74 to 4.88 · Well Off Target: 4.88 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 13 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 13 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.65 · As Expected: 0.65 to 1.56 · Several Outliers: 1.56 to 2.86 · Many Outliers: 2.86 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams
Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 1.65 · As Expected: 1.65 to 2.76 · More Than Expected: 2.76 to 4.41 · Far More Than Expected: 4.41 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.65 wins
As Expected
02.787
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.77
Close
03.258
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.15%
97.24%
Phoenix Mercury
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.85%
11.08%
New York Liberty
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 13
As Expected
01.36
Unexpected Playoff Teams
Expected
2 of 8
As Expected
02.28

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
Measures how evenly wins were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual wins totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully
Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge
The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst
The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games
Actual percentage of games decided by 3 run/points or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Actual percentage of games decided by 15 runs/points or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.10
Balanced
00.080.150.240.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
0.43
Compressed
01.003
Interquartile Edge
59%
Competitive
50%58%65%73%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
64%
Tight
50%67%100%
Close Games
Expected
18%
Mostly Decisive
0%19%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Frequent
0%23%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.18 · Predictable: 0.18 to 0.22 · Hard to Predict: 0.22 to 0.25 · Coin-Flip: 0.25 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness
How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.23
Hard to Predict
00.231
Matchup Imbalance
0.28
Wide Gaps
00.120.220.340.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.91
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
-0.03
Reshuffled
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
36%
As Expected
0%36%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
35%
Shaky Favorites
0%34%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.04 · Within Noise: 0.04 to 0.08 · Above Noise: 0.08 to 0.16 · Well Above Noise: 0.16 and up.
Probability calibration
0.67
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.11
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.35
Overconfident
0.1590811.001.84092
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.022
Well Within Noise
00.0790.2

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team Made Playoffs Advanced to Semifinals Advanced to Finals Won Finals
Phoenix Mercury 78.20% 49.11% 29.81% 18.05%
Indiana Fever 81.88% 50.70% 30.12% 16.27%
Seattle Storm 80.76% 46.20% 25.05% 14.09%
Detroit Shock 72.47% 42.18% 23.47% 12.16%
Los Angeles Sparks 67.82% 34.77% 17.26% 9.00%
Connecticut Sun 72.61% 36.66% 17.61% 7.82%
San Antonio Silver Stars 65.14% 29.19% 12.64% 5.77%
New York Liberty 59.01% 25.22% 10.75% 4.27%
Minnesota Lynx 60.66% 22.84% 8.49% 3.27%
Sacramento Monarchs 47.41% 17.90% 6.75% 2.72%
Washington Mystics 42.22% 16.54% 6.50% 2.40%
Chicago Sky 41.54% 15.91% 6.14% 2.14%
Atlanta Dream 30.27% 12.80% 5.41% 2.04%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Atlanta DreamChicago SkyConnecticut SunDetroit ShockIndiana FeverNew York LibertyWashington Mystics
Atlanta Dream53.6%2.68%43.4%6.32%36.9%6.42%34.5%8.14%49.7%4.23%53.6%2.48%
Chicago Sky46.4%2.68%38.9%9.00%34.1%8.81%31.5%11.00%45.0%6.19%49.4%3.86%
Connecticut Sun56.6%6.32%61.1%9.00%43.0%16.87%41.2%18.05%56.1%13.28%59.9%9.09%
Detroit Shock63.1%6.42%65.9%8.81%57.0%16.87%47.3%17.86%62.3%13.44%65.0%9.07%
Indiana Fever65.5%8.14%68.5%11.00%58.8%18.05%52.7%17.86%64.8%15.50%68.5%11.34%
New York Liberty50.3%4.23%55.0%6.19%43.9%13.28%37.7%13.44%35.2%15.50%52.3%6.37%
Washington Mystics46.4%2.48%50.6%3.86%40.1%9.09%35.0%9.07%31.5%11.34%47.7%6.37%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Los Angeles SparksMinnesota LynxPhoenix MercurySacramento MonarchsSan Antonio Silver StarsSeattle Storm
Los Angeles Sparks61.8%11.94%40.3%16.78%62.0%8.63%55.5%13.09%46.1%17.38%
Minnesota Lynx38.2%11.94%29.5%14.63%50.5%7.20%43.6%11.36%34.6%15.53%
Phoenix Mercury59.7%16.78%70.5%14.63%70.1%11.52%64.0%15.97%54.2%19.31%
Sacramento Monarchs38.0%8.63%49.5%7.20%29.9%11.52%43.9%8.12%33.9%11.94%
San Antonio Silver Stars44.5%13.09%56.4%11.36%36.0%15.97%56.1%8.12%40.1%16.61%
Seattle Storm53.9%17.38%65.4%15.53%45.8%19.31%66.1%11.94%59.9%16.61%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Atlanta DreamChicago SkyConnecticut SunDetroit ShockIndiana FeverNew York LibertyWashington Mystics
Atlanta Dream53.6%0.91%42.8%2.44%39.5%2.96%35.5%3.92%49.3%1.55%54.6%1.01%
Chicago Sky46.4%0.91%40.6%3.22%35.1%3.77%32.7%4.86%45.6%1.94%50.6%1.22%
Connecticut Sun57.2%2.44%59.4%3.22%43.9%9.74%41.6%12.98%54.3%5.09%58.7%3.19%
Detroit Shock60.5%2.96%64.9%3.77%56.1%9.74%47.9%15.57%61.5%6.29%63.3%3.84%
Indiana Fever64.5%3.92%67.3%4.86%58.4%12.98%52.1%15.57%62.9%8.21%66.9%5.15%
New York Liberty50.7%1.55%54.4%1.94%45.7%5.09%38.5%6.29%37.1%8.21%52.5%2.13%
Washington Mystics45.4%1.01%49.4%1.22%41.3%3.19%36.7%3.84%33.1%5.15%47.5%2.13%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Los Angeles SparksMinnesota LynxPhoenix MercurySacramento MonarchsSan Antonio Silver StarsSeattle Storm
Los Angeles Sparks61.7%4.22%42.3%11.19%61.3%3.30%55.9%5.72%45.5%10.33%
Minnesota Lynx38.3%4.22%31.2%7.05%50.5%1.96%43.0%3.33%35.8%6.29%
Phoenix Mercury57.7%11.19%68.8%7.05%69.0%5.25%63.5%9.16%55.1%16.45%
Sacramento Monarchs38.7%3.30%49.5%1.96%31.0%5.25%43.6%2.62%36.4%4.76%
San Antonio Silver Stars44.1%5.72%57.0%3.33%36.5%9.16%56.4%2.62%40.6%8.36%
Seattle Storm54.5%10.33%64.2%6.29%44.9%16.45%63.6%4.76%59.4%8.36%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Los Angeles SparksMinnesota LynxPhoenix MercurySacramento MonarchsSan Antonio Silver StarsSeattle StormAtlanta DreamChicago SkyConnecticut SunDetroit ShockIndiana FeverNew York LibertyWashington Mystics
Atlanta Dream37.9%0.95%55.2%0.47%29.0%1.66%49.2%0.35%48.6%0.63%34.3%1.35%
Chicago Sky34.4%1.08%49.8%0.54%29.2%1.82%45.1%0.40%39.3%0.77%31.9%1.53%
Connecticut Sun44.4%3.06%60.3%1.52%36.9%5.19%57.1%1.18%52.0%2.25%40.6%4.43%
Detroit Shock53.1%4.08%65.1%1.94%44.9%7.07%64.0%1.52%58.5%3.07%48.1%5.78%
Indiana Fever55.0%5.15%68.5%2.53%46.0%8.93%66.9%2.11%61.3%3.78%50.8%7.61%
New York Liberty40.5%1.85%53.9%0.92%31.3%3.22%54.2%0.74%47.5%1.32%36.7%2.71%
Washington Mystics38.5%1.09%49.2%0.58%28.7%1.93%48.5%0.45%42.8%0.82%34.8%1.64%
Los Angeles Sparks62.1%0.95%65.6%1.08%55.6%3.06%46.9%4.08%45.0%5.15%59.5%1.85%61.5%1.09%
Minnesota Lynx44.8%0.47%50.2%0.54%39.7%1.52%34.9%1.94%31.5%2.53%46.1%0.92%50.8%0.58%
Phoenix Mercury71.0%1.66%70.8%1.82%63.1%5.19%55.1%7.07%54.0%8.93%68.7%3.22%71.3%1.93%
Sacramento Monarchs50.8%0.35%54.9%0.40%42.9%1.18%36.0%1.52%33.1%2.11%45.8%0.74%51.5%0.45%
San Antonio Silver Stars51.4%0.63%60.7%0.77%48.0%2.25%41.5%3.07%38.7%3.78%52.5%1.32%57.2%0.82%
Seattle Storm65.7%1.35%68.1%1.53%59.4%4.43%51.9%5.78%49.2%7.61%63.3%2.71%65.2%1.64%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team Advanced to Semifinals Advanced to Finals Won Finals Actual Outcome
Phoenix Mercury 70.33% 44.26% 28.27% Won Finals
Indiana Fever 71.88% 45.03% 22.49% Eliminated in Finals
Loser →
↓ Winner
Atlanta DreamDetroit ShockIndiana FeverWashington Mystics
Atlanta Dream47.2%100.00%
Detroit Shock52.8%100.00%
Indiana Fever71.9%100.00%
Washington Mystics28.1%100.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Los Angeles SparksPhoenix MercurySan Antonio Silver StarsSeattle Storm
Los Angeles Sparks39.6%100.00%
Phoenix Mercury70.3%100.00%
San Antonio Silver Stars29.7%100.00%
Seattle Storm60.4%100.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Atlanta DreamDetroit ShockIndiana FeverWashington Mystics
Atlanta Dream32.5%34.09%60.3%13.11%
Detroit Shock41.7%37.80%70.0%15.01%
Indiana Fever67.5%34.09%58.3%37.80%
Washington Mystics39.7%13.11%30.0%15.01%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Los Angeles SparksPhoenix MercurySan Antonio Silver StarsSeattle Storm
Los Angeles Sparks35.4%27.78%62.2%11.77%
Phoenix Mercury64.6%27.78%61.8%42.55%
San Antonio Silver Stars37.8%11.77%35.3%17.89%
Seattle Storm38.2%42.55%64.7%17.89%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Los Angeles SparksPhoenix MercurySan Antonio Silver StarsSeattle StormAtlanta DreamDetroit ShockIndiana FeverWashington Mystics
Atlanta Dream39.8%3.18%28.1%8.39%51.2%2.06%31.9%5.37%
Detroit Shock53.1%4.57%40.0%11.74%63.7%2.76%44.9%7.21%
Indiana Fever57.6%7.78%39.6%19.80%65.4%4.90%55.5%12.55%
Washington Mystics34.5%1.63%25.4%4.33%46.2%1.06%29.2%2.69%
Los Angeles Sparks60.2%3.18%46.9%4.57%42.4%7.78%65.5%1.63%
Phoenix Mercury71.9%8.39%60.0%11.74%60.4%19.80%74.6%4.33%
San Antonio Silver Stars48.8%2.06%36.3%2.76%34.6%4.90%53.8%1.06%
Seattle Storm68.1%5.37%55.1%7.21%44.5%12.55%70.8%2.69%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Phoenix Mercury 28.27% chance to win
Quarterfinals
vs. San Antonio Silver Stars
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
70.33%
→
Semifinals
vs. Seattle Storm
Matchup
59.46%
Win Prob
61.85%
→
Finals
vs. Indiana Fever
Matchup
42.31%
Win Prob
60.40%
Indiana Fever 22.49% chance to win
Quarterfinals
vs. Washington Mystics
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
71.88%
→
Semifinals
vs. Atlanta Dream
Matchup
51.07%
Win Prob
67.46%
→
Finals
vs. Phoenix Mercury
Matchup
34.87%
Win Prob
39.60%
Seattle Storm 15.12% chance to win
Quarterfinals
vs. Los Angeles Sparks
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
60.45%
→
Semifinals
vs. Phoenix Mercury
Matchup
58.38%
Win Prob
38.15%
→
Finals
vs. Indiana Fever
Matchup
36.95%
Win Prob
44.53%
Detroit Shock 12.11% chance to win
Quarterfinals
vs. Atlanta Dream
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
52.80%
→
Semifinals
vs. Indiana Fever
Matchup
60.02%
Win Prob
41.71%
→
Finals
vs. Phoenix Mercury
Matchup
38.74%
Win Prob
39.95%
Los Angeles Sparks 8.42% chance to win
Quarterfinals
vs. Seattle Storm
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
39.55%
→
Semifinals
vs. Phoenix Mercury
Matchup
57.36%
Win Prob
35.43%
→
Finals
vs. Indiana Fever
Matchup
39.20%
Win Prob
42.42%
Atlanta Dream 6.39% chance to win
Quarterfinals
vs. Detroit Shock
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
47.20%
→
Semifinals
vs. Indiana Fever
Matchup
58.38%
Win Prob
32.54%
→
Finals
vs. Phoenix Mercury
Matchup
36.88%
Win Prob
28.12%
San Antonio Silver Stars 4.27% chance to win
Quarterfinals
vs. Phoenix Mercury
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
29.67%
→
Semifinals
vs. Seattle Storm
Matchup
58.67%
Win Prob
35.32%
→
Finals
vs. Indiana Fever
Matchup
39.64%
Win Prob
34.57%
Washington Mystics 2.93% chance to win
Quarterfinals
vs. Indiana Fever
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
28.12%
→
Semifinals
vs. Atlanta Dream
Matchup
53.59%
Win Prob
39.67%
→
Finals
vs. Phoenix Mercury
Matchup
37.53%
Win Prob
25.40%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
2009-06-06 Indiana Fever W 87-86 1437.43 1501.95 55.35% 44.65% +1.62 1-0
2009-06-07 @ Washington Mystics L 71-77 1439.05 1470.52 31.70% 68.30% -2.82 1-1
2009-06-12 @ Chicago Sky L 73-81 1436.23 1477.26 30.52% 69.48% -3.15 1-2
2009-06-14 @ Connecticut Sun W 67-62 1433.08 1514.00 25.88% 74.12% +6.04 2-2
2009-06-19 Washington Mystics W 93-81 1439.12 1479.76 58.72% 41.28% +5.20 3-2
2009-06-21 New York Liberty L 81-93 1444.32 1500.02 56.60% 43.40% -7.14 3-3
2009-06-23 Chicago Sky L 98-99 1437.18 1476.33 58.93% 41.07% -2.14 3-4
2009-06-26 Detroit Shock W 96-86 1435.04 1515.76 53.04% 46.96% +5.40 4-4
2009-06-27 @ Connecticut Sun L 68-82 1440.44 1516.82 26.39% 73.61% -3.59 4-5
2009-06-30 Minnesota Lynx L 85-91 1436.85 1512.90 53.71% 46.29% -4.79 4-6
2009-07-03 Washington Mystics W 72-65 1432.06 1473.94 58.55% 41.45% +3.99 5-6
2009-07-05 @ Indiana Fever L 74-78 1436.05 1522.43 25.28% 74.72% -1.84 5-7
2009-07-07 Connecticut Sun W 72-67 1434.21 1519.50 52.38% 47.62% +3.88 6-7
2009-07-11 @ New York Liberty L 69-71 1438.09 1495.12 28.60% 71.40% -1.47 6-8
2009-07-15 @ Minnesota Lynx W 91-77 1436.62 1510.01 26.72% 73.28% +9.98 7-8
2009-07-17 @ Indiana Fever L 79-84 1446.60 1538.52 24.68% 75.32% -2.01 7-9
2009-07-19 @ New York Liberty L 86-89 1444.59 1495.17 29.37% 70.63% -1.85 7-10
2009-07-22 @ Detroit Shock W 98-95 1442.74 1513.94 26.97% 73.03% +4.60 8-10
2009-07-30 Phoenix Mercury W 106-76 1447.34 1544.20 50.72% 49.28% +9.83 9-10
2009-08-01 New York Liberty W 89-83 1457.17 1483.57 60.69% 39.31% +3.50 10-10
2009-08-06 @ San Antonio Silver Stars W 92-84 1460.67 1510.14 29.50% 70.50% +7.26 11-10
2009-08-08 Chicago Sky L 80-82 1467.93 1464.57 64.70% 35.30% -3.33 11-11
2009-08-13 Detroit Shock W 80-75 1464.60 1511.20 57.89% 42.11% +3.43 12-11
2009-08-15 Seattle Storm W 88-79 1468.03 1525.94 56.29% 43.71% +4.77 13-11
2009-08-20 San Antonio Silver Stars W 93-87 1472.80 1498.33 60.81% 39.19% +3.49 14-11
2009-08-23 Los Angeles Sparks L 87-91 1476.29 1513.34 59.22% 40.78% -4.31 14-12
2009-08-25 Sacramento Monarchs W 103-83 1471.98 1475.07 63.84% 36.16% +5.89 15-12
2009-08-27 @ Detroit Shock L 83-87 1477.87 1520.43 30.34% 69.66% -2.21 15-13
2009-08-29 @ Seattle Storm L 84-91 1475.66 1538.56 27.92% 72.08% -2.69 15-14
2009-09-01 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 84-79 1472.97 1518.94 29.92% 70.08% +5.70 16-14
2009-09-04 @ Sacramento Monarchs W 98-90 1478.67 1475.64 36.15% 63.85% +6.58 17-14
2009-09-05 @ Phoenix Mercury L 82-100 1485.25 1555.39 27.09% 72.91% -4.19 17-15
2009-09-11 Connecticut Sun W 88-64 1481.06 1500.50 61.64% 38.36% +6.84 18-15
2009-09-12 @ Washington Mystics L 64-82 1487.90 1464.09 38.95% 61.05% -6.01 18-16
2009-06-06 @ Minnesota Lynx L 85-102 1482.29 1499.26 33.54% 66.46% -5.03 0-1
2009-06-12 Atlanta Dream W 81-73 1477.26 1436.23 69.48% 30.52% +3.14 1-1
2009-06-14 Seattle Storm W 64-57 1480.40 1531.28 57.28% 42.72% +4.11 2-1
2009-06-16 Connecticut Sun W 78-75 1484.51 1507.96 61.10% 38.90% +2.45 3-1
2009-06-19 @ Connecticut Sun L 61-91 1486.96 1505.51 33.33% 66.67% -6.64 3-2
2009-06-20 @ Washington Mystics L 72-81 1480.32 1474.56 36.51% 63.49% -3.99 3-3
2009-06-23 @ Atlanta Dream W 99-98 1476.33 1437.18 41.07% 58.93% +2.15 4-3
2009-06-27 Washington Mystics W 68-63 1478.48 1473.21 64.95% 35.05% +2.85 5-3
2009-06-30 Sacramento Monarchs W 74-72 1481.33 1479.32 64.52% 35.48% +1.83 6-3
2009-07-03 @ San Antonio Silver Stars L 72-85 1483.16 1509.10 32.40% 67.60% -4.26 6-4
2009-07-07 @ Sacramento Monarchs L 73-83 1478.90 1483.68 35.12% 64.88% -4.04 6-5
2009-07-08 @ Phoenix Mercury L 70-90 1474.86 1523.45 29.61% 70.39% -4.82 6-6
2009-07-10 Indiana Fever L 54-83 1470.04 1524.27 56.81% 43.19% -11.13 6-7
2009-07-12 @ Seattle Storm W 86-81 1458.91 1537.42 26.15% 73.85% +6.01 7-7
2009-07-15 @ Indiana Fever L 74-84 1464.92 1535.40 27.05% 72.95% -3.12 7-8
2009-07-19 San Antonio Silver Stars W 85-75 1461.80 1507.56 58.00% 42.00% +4.84 8-8
2009-07-22 New York Liberty L 70-77 1466.64 1497.02 60.14% 39.86% -5.80 8-9
2009-07-23 @ Washington Mystics L 64-75 1460.84 1465.92 35.08% 64.92% -4.23 8-10
2009-07-29 Los Angeles Sparks W 75-63 1456.61 1504.06 57.77% 42.23% +5.33 9-10
2009-08-01 Connecticut Sun W 84-72 1461.94 1516.75 56.73% 43.27% +5.45 10-10
2009-08-05 @ Indiana Fever L 67-76 1467.39 1548.89 25.82% 74.18% -2.82 10-11
2009-08-08 @ Atlanta Dream W 82-80 1464.57 1467.93 35.30% 64.70% +3.33 11-11
2009-08-09 @ Detroit Shock L 58-64 1467.90 1504.13 31.11% 68.89% -2.77 11-12
2009-08-14 @ New York Liberty W 88-77 1465.13 1489.45 32.60% 67.40% +8.14 12-12
2009-08-15 Minnesota Lynx W 79-76 1473.27 1484.17 62.80% 37.20% +2.34 13-12
2009-08-18 Phoenix Mercury L 99-106 1475.61 1540.94 55.24% 44.76% -5.32 13-13
2009-08-22 Detroit Shock L 67-76 1470.29 1498.16 60.49% 39.51% -6.60 13-14
2009-08-25 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 63-75 1463.69 1517.65 28.97% 71.03% -3.66 13-15
2009-08-28 New York Liberty W 96-77 1460.03 1487.83 60.50% 39.50% +6.27 14-15
2009-08-30 @ New York Liberty L 63-77 1466.30 1481.56 33.76% 66.24% -4.60 14-16
2009-09-04 Washington Mystics W 92-86 1461.70 1470.60 63.07% 36.93% +3.30 15-16
2009-09-06 @ Detroit Shock L 75-84 1465.00 1523.30 28.46% 71.54% -3.11 15-17
2009-09-10 Indiana Fever W 86-79 1461.89 1549.78 52.01% 47.99% +4.62 16-17
2009-09-12 Detroit Shock L 69-80 1466.51 1526.53 55.99% 44.01% -6.76 16-18
2009-06-06 Washington Mystics L 70-82 1515.94 1461.55 71.08% 28.92% -8.96 0-1
2009-06-07 @ New York Liberty W 66-57 1506.98 1506.83 35.77% 64.23% +7.02 1-1
2009-06-14 Atlanta Dream L 62-67 1514.00 1433.08 74.12% 25.88% -6.04 1-2
2009-06-16 @ Chicago Sky L 75-78 1507.96 1484.51 38.90% 61.10% -2.45 1-3
2009-06-19 Chicago Sky W 91-61 1505.51 1486.96 66.67% 33.33% +6.65 2-3
2009-06-21 San Antonio Silver Stars W 71-58 1512.16 1510.88 64.42% 35.58% +4.66 3-3
2009-06-27 Atlanta Dream W 82-68 1516.82 1440.44 73.61% 26.39% +3.60 4-3
2009-07-02 @ Indiana Fever L 53-67 1520.42 1517.51 36.13% 63.87% -4.92 4-4
2009-07-05 @ Detroit Shock W 95-92 1515.50 1509.20 36.58% 63.42% +4.00 5-4
2009-07-07 @ Atlanta Dream L 67-72 1519.50 1434.21 47.62% 52.38% -3.88 5-5
2009-07-11 Detroit Shock L 77-79 1515.62 1505.20 65.62% 34.38% -3.38 5-6
2009-07-14 Los Angeles Sparks W 82-71 1512.24 1506.23 65.04% 34.96% +4.22 6-6
2009-07-17 @ San Antonio Silver Stars W 72-64 1516.46 1514.14 36.05% 63.95% +6.59 7-6
2009-07-19 Indiana Fever W 67-61 1523.05 1540.53 61.91% 38.09% +3.39 8-6
2009-07-22 Sacramento Monarchs W 83-75 1526.44 1464.65 71.95% 28.05% +2.89 9-6
2009-07-28 Phoenix Mercury L 80-95 1529.33 1535.25 63.47% 36.53% -8.95 9-7
2009-07-30 @ Indiana Fever L 85-94 1520.38 1539.59 33.25% 66.75% -3.63 9-8
2009-08-01 @ Chicago Sky L 72-84 1516.75 1461.94 43.27% 56.73% -5.45 9-9
2009-08-02 @ Detroit Shock W 83-65 1511.30 1512.90 35.53% 64.47% +9.95 10-9
2009-08-07 @ Minnesota Lynx L 88-95 1521.25 1489.99 39.98% 60.02% -3.85 10-10
2009-08-09 Washington Mystics W 96-67 1517.40 1474.46 69.71% 30.29% +5.94 11-10
2009-08-13 Seattle Storm W 64-53 1523.34 1530.37 63.32% 36.68% +4.43 12-10
2009-08-14 @ Washington Mystics L 89-91 1527.77 1464.23 44.51% 55.49% -2.29 12-11
2009-08-19 New York Liberty W 74-69 1525.48 1483.58 69.58% 30.42% +2.47 13-11
2009-08-21 @ New York Liberty L 83-85 1527.95 1481.11 42.15% 57.85% -2.17 13-12
2009-08-22 Minnesota Lynx W 98-94 1525.78 1477.24 70.39% 29.61% +2.16 14-12
2009-08-25 Detroit Shock L 70-90 1527.94 1509.58 66.64% 33.36% -10.85 14-13
2009-08-27 @ Seattle Storm L 74-86 1517.09 1534.33 33.50% 66.50% -4.23 14-14
2009-08-29 @ Phoenix Mercury L 84-95 1512.86 1544.08 31.73% 68.27% -3.83 14-15
2009-08-30 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 81-91 1509.03 1514.91 34.97% 65.03% -4.02 14-16
2009-09-01 @ Sacramento Monarchs L 70-90 1505.01 1469.03 40.63% 59.37% -6.62 14-17
2009-09-04 New York Liberty W 88-85 1498.39 1480.70 66.56% 33.44% +2.11 15-17
2009-09-11 @ Atlanta Dream L 64-88 1500.50 1481.06 38.36% 61.64% -6.84 15-18
2009-09-13 Indiana Fever W 95-85 1493.66 1545.15 57.20% 42.80% +4.93 16-18
2009-06-06 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 58-78 1534.95 1515.24 38.39% 61.61% -6.25 0-1
2009-06-08 Los Angeles Sparks W 81-52 1528.70 1521.49 65.20% 34.80% +6.83 1-1
2009-06-10 Washington Mystics L 69-75 1535.53 1473.34 72.00% 28.00% -6.42 1-2
2009-06-19 Indiana Fever L 54-66 1529.11 1498.16 68.23% 31.77% -8.61 1-3
2009-06-21 @ Indiana Fever L 70-82 1520.50 1506.76 37.58% 62.42% -4.74 1-4
2009-06-26 @ Atlanta Dream L 86-96 1515.76 1435.04 46.96% 53.04% -5.40 1-5
2009-06-28 Sacramento Monarchs W 86-72 1510.36 1483.72 67.69% 32.31% +4.40 2-5
2009-07-02 @ New York Liberty L 64-80 1514.76 1496.54 38.19% 61.81% -5.56 2-6
2009-07-05 Connecticut Sun L 92-95 1509.20 1515.50 63.42% 36.58% -4.00 2-7
2009-07-11 @ Connecticut Sun W 79-77 1505.20 1515.62 34.38% 65.62% +3.38 3-7
2009-07-15 @ Seattle Storm W 66-63 1508.58 1531.41 32.79% 67.21% +4.24 4-7
2009-07-18 @ Phoenix Mercury L 90-97 1512.82 1535.93 32.75% 67.25% -3.16 4-8
2009-07-19 @ Sacramento Monarchs W 69-65 1509.66 1468.92 41.29% 58.71% +4.28 5-8
2009-07-22 Atlanta Dream L 95-98 1513.94 1442.74 73.03% 26.97% -4.61 5-9
2009-07-31 Minnesota Lynx W 91-83 1509.33 1501.34 65.30% 34.70% +3.57 6-9
2009-08-02 Connecticut Sun L 65-83 1512.90 1511.30 64.47% 35.53% -9.95 6-10
2009-08-04 New York Liberty W 76-64 1502.95 1480.06 67.22% 32.78% +4.13 7-10
2009-08-07 @ Washington Mystics L 66-70 1507.08 1471.51 40.57% 59.43% -2.95 7-11
2009-08-09 Chicago Sky W 64-58 1504.13 1467.90 68.89% 31.11% +2.77 8-11
2009-08-11 @ Washington Mystics W 81-77 1506.90 1468.53 40.96% 59.04% +4.30 9-11
2009-08-13 @ Atlanta Dream L 75-80 1511.20 1464.60 42.11% 57.89% -3.43 9-12
2009-08-15 @ Indiana Fever L 59-82 1507.77 1558.80 29.32% 70.68% -5.12 9-13
2009-08-18 Seattle Storm L 75-79 1502.65 1521.17 61.77% 38.23% -4.49 9-14
2009-08-22 @ Chicago Sky W 76-67 1498.16 1470.29 39.51% 60.49% +6.60 10-14
2009-08-23 San Antonio Silver Stars W 99-84 1504.76 1492.58 65.85% 34.15% +4.82 11-14
2009-08-25 @ Connecticut Sun W 90-70 1509.58 1527.94 33.36% 66.64% +10.85 12-14
2009-08-27 Atlanta Dream W 87-83 1520.43 1477.87 69.66% 30.34% +2.20 13-14
2009-08-29 @ San Antonio Silver Stars L 88-100 1522.63 1484.44 40.94% 59.06% -5.16 13-15
2009-09-01 Phoenix Mercury W 101-99 1517.47 1547.91 60.14% 39.86% +2.05 14-15
2009-09-04 Indiana Fever W 70-63 1519.52 1545.43 60.76% 39.24% +3.78 15-15
2009-09-06 Chicago Sky W 84-75 1523.30 1465.00 71.54% 28.46% +3.11 16-15
2009-09-09 @ Minnesota Lynx L 72-75 1526.41 1473.11 43.06% 56.94% -2.71 16-16
2009-09-10 New York Liberty W 94-87 1523.70 1473.68 70.56% 29.44% +2.83 17-16
2009-09-12 @ Chicago Sky W 80-69 1526.53 1466.51 44.01% 55.99% +6.76 18-16
2009-06-06 @ Atlanta Dream L 86-87 1501.95 1437.43 44.65% 55.35% -1.62 0-1
2009-06-07 Minnesota Lynx L 74-96 1500.33 1504.29 63.73% 36.27% -10.88 0-2
2009-06-09 Seattle Storm W 73-66 1489.45 1525.60 59.35% 40.65% +3.91 1-2
2009-06-12 Los Angeles Sparks W 73-61 1493.36 1510.36 61.97% 38.03% +4.80 2-2
2009-06-19 @ Detroit Shock W 66-54 1498.16 1529.11 31.77% 68.23% +8.60 3-2
2009-06-21 Detroit Shock W 82-70 1506.76 1520.50 62.42% 37.58% +4.74 4-2
2009-06-26 @ New York Liberty W 82-81 1511.50 1502.55 36.94% 63.06% +2.30 5-2
2009-06-27 New York Liberty W 63-54 1513.80 1500.25 66.02% 33.98% +3.71 6-2
2009-07-02 Connecticut Sun W 67-53 1517.51 1520.42 63.87% 36.13% +4.92 7-2
2009-07-05 Atlanta Dream W 78-74 1522.43 1436.05 74.72% 25.28% +1.84 8-2
2009-07-10 @ Chicago Sky W 83-54 1524.27 1470.04 43.19% 56.81% +11.13 9-2
2009-07-15 Chicago Sky W 84-74 1535.40 1464.92 72.95% 27.05% +3.12 10-2
2009-07-17 Atlanta Dream W 84-79 1538.52 1446.60 75.32% 24.68% +2.01 11-2
2009-07-19 @ Connecticut Sun L 61-67 1540.53 1523.05 38.09% 61.91% -3.40 11-3
2009-07-21 @ Washington Mystics W 82-70 1537.13 1472.91 44.60% 55.40% +6.99 12-3
2009-07-23 @ San Antonio Silver Stars L 65-84 1544.12 1502.72 41.38% 58.62% -6.57 12-4
2009-07-28 Washington Mystics W 85-81 1537.55 1475.05 72.03% 27.97% +2.04 13-4
2009-07-30 Connecticut Sun W 94-85 1539.59 1520.38 66.75% 33.25% +3.63 14-4
2009-08-02 @ Washington Mystics W 87-79 1543.22 1477.19 44.86% 55.14% +5.67 15-4
2009-08-05 Chicago Sky W 76-67 1548.89 1467.39 74.18% 25.82% +2.82 16-4
2009-08-08 @ Phoenix Mercury W 90-83 1551.71 1549.88 35.99% 64.01% +6.17 17-4
2009-08-10 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 63-75 1557.88 1500.84 43.58% 56.42% -5.50 17-5
2009-08-13 @ Minnesota Lynx W 91-81 1552.38 1490.59 44.26% 55.74% +6.42 18-5
2009-08-15 Detroit Shock W 82-59 1558.80 1507.77 70.68% 29.32% +5.12 19-5
2009-08-20 @ Sacramento Monarchs L 62-67 1563.92 1464.89 49.59% 50.41% -4.04 19-6
2009-08-22 @ Seattle Storm L 60-74 1559.88 1525.67 40.39% 59.61% -5.50 19-7
2009-08-27 San Antonio Silver Stars W 77-66 1554.38 1487.76 72.51% 27.49% +3.32 20-7
2009-08-29 Sacramento Monarchs L 78-79 1557.70 1466.29 75.26% 24.74% -2.74 20-8
2009-09-02 Phoenix Mercury L 90-106 1554.96 1545.86 65.45% 34.55% -9.53 20-9
2009-09-04 @ Detroit Shock L 63-70 1545.43 1519.52 39.24% 60.76% -3.78 20-10
2009-09-06 Washington Mystics W 72-61 1541.65 1467.30 73.39% 26.61% +3.21 21-10
2009-09-08 @ New York Liberty W 69-63 1544.86 1478.59 44.90% 55.10% +4.92 22-10
2009-09-10 @ Chicago Sky L 79-86 1549.78 1461.89 47.99% 52.01% -4.63 22-11
2009-09-13 @ Connecticut Sun L 85-95 1545.15 1493.66 42.80% 57.20% -4.92 22-12
2009-06-06 Detroit Shock W 78-58 1515.24 1534.95 61.61% 38.39% +6.25 1-0
2009-06-08 @ Detroit Shock L 52-81 1521.49 1528.70 34.80% 65.20% -6.82 1-1
2009-06-10 @ Minnesota Lynx L 76-87 1514.67 1515.17 35.68% 64.32% -4.31 1-2
2009-06-12 @ Indiana Fever L 61-73 1510.36 1493.36 38.03% 61.97% -4.79 1-3
2009-06-19 @ Phoenix Mercury L 80-89 1505.57 1517.22 34.22% 65.78% -3.74 1-4
2009-06-21 Sacramento Monarchs W 67-47 1501.83 1493.15 65.39% 34.61% +5.64 2-4
2009-06-26 @ Seattle Storm L 67-69 1507.47 1540.39 31.52% 68.48% -1.63 2-5
2009-06-28 Seattle Storm W 82-55 1505.84 1542.01 59.34% 40.66% +7.69 3-5
2009-07-05 Phoenix Mercury L 89-104 1513.53 1514.41 64.14% 35.86% -9.04 3-6
2009-07-09 @ New York Liberty W 69-60 1504.49 1502.10 36.06% 63.94% +6.98 4-6
2009-07-11 @ Washington Mystics L 63-75 1511.47 1468.38 41.62% 58.38% -5.24 4-7
2009-07-14 @ Connecticut Sun L 71-82 1506.23 1512.24 34.96% 65.04% -4.22 4-8
2009-07-22 @ Seattle Storm L 87-98 1502.01 1536.67 31.31% 68.69% -3.78 4-9
2009-07-28 @ Minnesota Lynx W 76-70 1498.23 1507.17 34.57% 65.43% +5.83 5-9
2009-07-29 @ Chicago Sky L 63-75 1504.06 1456.61 42.23% 57.77% -5.33 5-10
2009-08-01 @ Sacramento Monarchs W 59-56 1498.73 1470.98 39.49% 60.51% +3.82 6-10
2009-08-04 San Antonio Silver Stars L 59-63 1502.55 1505.49 63.86% 36.14% -4.65 6-11
2009-08-06 Seattle Storm W 79-75 1497.90 1532.21 59.60% 40.40% +2.94 7-11
2009-08-10 Indiana Fever W 75-63 1500.84 1557.88 56.42% 43.58% +5.50 8-11
2009-08-11 New York Liberty L 61-65 1506.34 1484.57 67.08% 32.92% -4.89 8-12
2009-08-14 Sacramento Monarchs L 79-85 1501.45 1467.99 68.55% 31.45% -6.11 8-13
2009-08-15 @ Sacramento Monarchs W 78-61 1495.34 1474.10 38.60% 61.40% +9.22 9-13
2009-08-18 Washington Mystics W 72-69 1504.56 1464.25 69.39% 30.61% +1.93 10-13
2009-08-19 Minnesota Lynx W 78-63 1506.49 1481.83 67.44% 32.56% +4.59 11-13
2009-08-21 @ San Antonio Silver Stars W 67-66 1511.08 1494.84 37.92% 62.08% +2.26 12-13
2009-08-23 @ Atlanta Dream W 91-87 1513.34 1476.29 40.78% 59.22% +4.31 13-13
2009-08-25 Chicago Sky W 75-63 1517.65 1463.69 71.03% 28.97% +3.65 14-13
2009-08-27 Phoenix Mercury L 90-98 1521.30 1537.69 62.06% 37.94% -6.39 14-14
2009-08-30 Connecticut Sun W 91-81 1514.91 1509.03 65.03% 34.97% +4.03 15-14
2009-09-01 Atlanta Dream L 79-84 1518.94 1472.97 70.08% 29.92% -5.71 15-15
2009-09-05 @ San Antonio Silver Stars L 72-89 1513.23 1491.31 38.69% 61.31% -5.80 15-16
2009-09-08 San Antonio Silver Stars W 76-68 1507.43 1497.12 65.60% 34.40% +3.54 16-16
2009-09-11 Minnesota Lynx W 90-61 1510.97 1475.82 68.75% 31.25% +6.12 17-16
2009-09-13 @ Phoenix Mercury W 81-78 1517.09 1565.86 29.59% 70.41% +4.44 18-16
2009-06-06 Chicago Sky W 102-85 1499.26 1482.29 66.46% 33.54% +5.03 1-0
2009-06-07 @ Indiana Fever W 96-74 1504.29 1500.33 36.27% 63.73% +10.88 2-0
2009-06-10 Los Angeles Sparks W 87-76 1515.17 1514.67 64.32% 35.68% +4.31 3-0
2009-06-12 Seattle Storm L 71-88 1519.48 1521.68 63.96% 36.04% -9.60 3-1
2009-06-16 @ Sacramento Monarchs W 86-83 1509.88 1497.09 37.46% 62.54% +3.94 4-1
2009-06-17 @ Phoenix Mercury L 80-104 1513.82 1510.77 36.15% 63.85% -6.44 4-2
2009-06-19 @ Seattle Storm L 62-90 1507.38 1527.17 33.18% 66.82% -6.39 4-3
2009-06-23 New York Liberty W 69-57 1500.99 1507.16 63.43% 36.57% +4.61 5-3
2009-06-27 Phoenix Mercury W 109-80 1505.60 1516.78 62.76% 37.24% +7.30 6-3
2009-06-30 @ Atlanta Dream W 91-85 1512.90 1436.85 46.29% 53.71% +4.79 7-3
2009-07-02 Sacramento Monarchs L 68-74 1517.69 1477.49 69.38% 30.62% -6.19 7-4
2009-07-07 Washington Mystics W 96-94 1511.50 1469.95 69.54% 30.46% +1.57 8-4
2009-07-10 San Antonio Silver Stars L 61-77 1513.07 1508.93 64.80% 35.20% -9.43 8-5
2009-07-12 @ San Antonio Silver Stars W 83-76 1503.64 1518.37 33.82% 66.18% +6.37 9-5
2009-07-15 Atlanta Dream L 77-91 1510.01 1436.62 73.28% 26.72% -9.98 9-6
2009-07-19 @ Seattle Storm L 69-72 1500.03 1534.69 31.30% 68.70% -1.98 9-7
2009-07-22 @ Phoenix Mercury W 99-86 1498.05 1539.09 30.52% 69.48% +9.12 10-7
2009-07-28 Los Angeles Sparks L 70-76 1507.17 1498.23 65.43% 34.57% -5.83 10-8
2009-07-31 @ Detroit Shock L 83-91 1501.34 1509.33 34.70% 65.30% -3.57 10-9
2009-08-01 Phoenix Mercury L 74-87 1497.77 1534.37 59.28% 40.72% -7.78 10-10
2009-08-07 Connecticut Sun W 95-88 1489.99 1521.25 60.02% 39.98% +3.85 11-10
2009-08-09 San Antonio Silver Stars L 87-89 1493.84 1502.88 63.05% 36.95% -3.25 11-11
2009-08-13 Indiana Fever L 81-91 1490.59 1552.38 55.74% 44.26% -6.42 11-12
2009-08-15 @ Chicago Sky L 76-79 1484.17 1473.27 37.20% 62.80% -2.34 11-13
2009-08-19 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 63-78 1481.83 1506.49 32.56% 67.44% -4.59 11-14
2009-08-22 @ Connecticut Sun L 94-98 1477.24 1525.78 29.61% 70.39% -2.16 11-15
2009-08-23 @ New York Liberty L 67-80 1475.08 1483.28 34.67% 65.33% -4.55 11-16
2009-08-28 Sacramento Monarchs W 100-95 1470.53 1469.18 64.43% 35.57% +2.90 12-16
2009-08-30 @ Washington Mystics L 75-81 1473.43 1461.58 37.33% 62.67% -3.33 12-17
2009-09-01 @ San Antonio Silver Stars L 82-84 1470.10 1489.60 33.21% 66.79% -1.71 12-18
2009-09-05 Seattle Storm W 76-68 1468.39 1541.02 54.20% 45.80% +4.72 13-18
2009-09-09 Detroit Shock W 75-72 1473.11 1526.41 56.94% 43.06% +2.71 14-18
2009-09-11 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 61-90 1475.82 1510.97 31.25% 68.75% -6.12 14-19
2009-09-13 @ Sacramento Monarchs L 66-88 1469.70 1462.41 36.72% 63.28% -6.27 14-20
2009-06-07 Connecticut Sun L 57-66 1506.83 1506.98 64.23% 35.77% -7.02 0-1
2009-06-10 @ Phoenix Mercury L 84-91 1499.81 1509.26 34.51% 65.49% -3.32 0-2
2009-06-13 @ San Antonio Silver Stars L 60-63 1496.49 1514.41 33.41% 66.59% -2.11 0-3
2009-06-19 San Antonio Silver Stars W 77-61 1494.38 1516.51 61.28% 38.72% +5.64 1-3
2009-06-21 @ Atlanta Dream W 93-81 1500.02 1444.32 43.40% 56.60% +7.14 2-3
2009-06-23 @ Minnesota Lynx L 57-69 1507.16 1500.99 36.57% 63.43% -4.61 2-4
2009-06-26 Indiana Fever L 81-82 1502.55 1511.50 63.06% 36.94% -2.30 2-5
2009-06-27 @ Indiana Fever L 54-63 1500.25 1513.80 33.98% 66.02% -3.71 2-6
2009-07-02 Detroit Shock W 80-64 1496.54 1514.76 61.81% 38.19% +5.56 3-6
2009-07-09 Los Angeles Sparks L 60-69 1502.10 1504.49 63.94% 36.06% -6.98 3-7
2009-07-11 Atlanta Dream W 71-69 1495.12 1438.09 71.40% 28.60% +1.47 4-7
2009-07-18 @ Washington Mystics L 67-68 1496.59 1471.48 39.13% 60.87% -1.42 4-8
2009-07-19 Atlanta Dream W 89-86 1495.17 1444.59 70.63% 29.37% +1.85 5-8
2009-07-22 @ Chicago Sky W 77-70 1497.02 1466.64 39.86% 60.14% +5.79 6-8
2009-07-23 Sacramento Monarchs L 73-88 1502.81 1461.76 69.48% 30.52% -9.79 6-9
2009-07-26 Phoenix Mercury L 88-94 1493.02 1529.97 59.23% 40.77% -5.28 6-10
2009-07-30 Washington Mystics L 75-78 1487.74 1473.02 66.17% 33.83% -4.17 6-11
2009-08-01 @ Atlanta Dream L 83-89 1483.57 1457.17 39.31% 60.69% -3.51 6-12
2009-08-04 @ Detroit Shock L 64-76 1480.06 1502.95 32.78% 67.22% -4.13 6-13
2009-08-07 @ Sacramento Monarchs W 84-66 1475.93 1467.16 36.91% 63.09% +9.74 7-13
2009-08-08 @ Seattle Storm L 69-70 1485.67 1529.27 30.21% 69.79% -1.10 7-14
2009-08-11 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 65-61 1484.57 1506.34 32.92% 67.08% +4.88 8-14
2009-08-14 Chicago Sky L 77-88 1489.45 1465.13 67.40% 32.60% -8.13 8-15
2009-08-16 @ Washington Mystics W 60-59 1481.32 1466.52 37.73% 62.27% +2.26 9-15
2009-08-19 @ Connecticut Sun L 69-74 1483.58 1525.48 30.42% 69.58% -2.47 9-16
2009-08-21 Connecticut Sun W 85-83 1481.11 1527.95 57.85% 42.15% +2.17 10-16
2009-08-23 Minnesota Lynx W 80-67 1483.28 1475.08 65.33% 34.67% +4.55 11-16
2009-08-28 @ Chicago Sky L 77-96 1487.83 1460.03 39.50% 60.50% -6.27 11-17
2009-08-30 Chicago Sky W 77-63 1481.56 1466.30 66.24% 33.76% +4.60 12-17
2009-09-01 Seattle Storm L 58-65 1486.16 1541.25 56.69% 43.31% -5.46 12-18
2009-09-04 @ Connecticut Sun L 85-88 1480.70 1498.39 33.44% 66.56% -2.11 12-19
2009-09-08 Indiana Fever L 63-69 1478.59 1544.86 55.10% 44.90% -4.91 12-20
2009-09-10 @ Detroit Shock L 87-94 1473.68 1523.70 29.44% 70.56% -2.84 12-21
2009-09-13 Washington Mystics W 86-65 1470.84 1470.11 64.35% 35.65% +5.95 13-21
2009-06-06 San Antonio Silver Stars W 90-79 1504.71 1518.95 62.35% 37.65% +4.55 1-0
2009-06-10 New York Liberty W 91-84 1509.26 1499.81 65.49% 34.51% +3.32 2-0
2009-06-12 @ Sacramento Monarchs L 71-90 1512.58 1495.29 38.06% 61.94% -6.04 2-1
2009-06-13 Sacramento Monarchs W 115-104 1506.54 1501.32 64.94% 35.06% +4.23 3-1
2009-06-17 Minnesota Lynx W 104-80 1510.77 1513.82 63.85% 36.15% +6.45 4-1
2009-06-19 Los Angeles Sparks W 89-80 1517.22 1505.57 65.78% 34.22% +3.74 5-1
2009-06-21 Seattle Storm L 84-93 1520.96 1533.56 62.57% 37.43% -6.84 5-2
2009-06-23 @ San Antonio Silver Stars L 87-91 1514.12 1506.21 36.80% 63.20% -2.67 5-3
2009-06-25 @ Washington Mystics W 93-87 1511.45 1478.54 40.20% 59.80% +5.33 6-3
2009-06-27 @ Minnesota Lynx L 80-109 1516.78 1505.60 37.24% 62.76% -7.30 6-4
2009-07-01 Seattle Storm W 93-81 1509.48 1534.32 60.91% 39.09% +4.93 7-4
2009-07-05 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 104-89 1514.41 1513.53 35.86% 64.14% +9.04 8-4
2009-07-08 Chicago Sky W 90-70 1523.45 1474.86 70.39% 29.61% +4.82 9-4
2009-07-11 @ Sacramento Monarchs W 107-105 1528.27 1484.11 41.77% 58.23% +3.00 10-4
2009-07-15 Sacramento Monarchs W 100-81 1531.27 1481.11 70.58% 29.42% +4.66 11-4
2009-07-18 Detroit Shock W 97-90 1535.93 1512.82 67.25% 32.75% +3.16 12-4
2009-07-22 Minnesota Lynx L 86-99 1539.09 1498.05 69.48% 30.52% -9.12 12-5
2009-07-26 @ New York Liberty W 94-88 1529.97 1493.02 40.77% 59.23% +5.28 13-5
2009-07-28 @ Connecticut Sun W 95-80 1535.25 1529.33 36.53% 63.47% +8.95 14-5
2009-07-30 @ Atlanta Dream L 76-106 1544.20 1447.34 49.28% 50.72% -9.83 14-6
2009-08-01 @ Minnesota Lynx W 87-74 1534.37 1497.77 40.72% 59.28% +7.78 15-6
2009-08-04 @ Seattle Storm W 101-90 1542.15 1539.93 36.04% 63.96% +7.73 16-6
2009-08-08 Indiana Fever L 83-90 1549.88 1551.71 64.01% 35.99% -6.17 16-7
2009-08-13 San Antonio Silver Stars W 95-83 1543.71 1495.56 70.34% 29.66% +3.74 17-7
2009-08-15 @ San Antonio Silver Stars L 89-106 1547.45 1491.82 43.39% 56.61% -6.51 17-8
2009-08-18 @ Chicago Sky W 106-99 1540.94 1475.61 44.76% 55.24% +5.32 18-8
2009-08-21 Washington Mystics L 81-91 1546.26 1462.32 74.45% 25.55% -8.57 18-9
2009-08-27 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 98-90 1537.69 1521.30 37.94% 62.06% +6.39 19-9
2009-08-29 Connecticut Sun W 95-84 1544.08 1512.86 68.27% 31.73% +3.83 20-9
2009-09-01 @ Detroit Shock L 99-101 1547.91 1517.47 39.86% 60.14% -2.05 20-10
2009-09-02 @ Indiana Fever W 106-90 1545.86 1554.96 34.55% 65.45% +9.53 21-10
2009-09-05 Atlanta Dream W 100-82 1555.39 1485.25 72.91% 27.09% +4.18 22-10
2009-09-10 @ Seattle Storm W 92-84 1559.57 1536.30 38.88% 61.12% +6.29 23-10
2009-09-13 Los Angeles Sparks L 78-81 1565.86 1517.09 70.41% 29.59% -4.44 23-11
2009-06-06 Seattle Storm L 61-71 1506.33 1514.55 63.16% 36.84% -7.27 0-1
2009-06-07 @ Seattle Storm L 70-80 1499.06 1521.82 32.80% 67.20% -3.77 0-2
2009-06-12 Phoenix Mercury W 90-71 1495.29 1512.58 61.94% 38.06% +6.03 1-2
2009-06-13 @ Phoenix Mercury L 104-115 1501.32 1506.54 35.06% 64.94% -4.23 1-3
2009-06-16 Minnesota Lynx L 83-86 1497.09 1509.88 62.54% 37.46% -3.94 1-4
2009-06-21 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 47-67 1493.15 1501.83 34.61% 65.39% -5.63 1-5
2009-06-26 @ San Antonio Silver Stars L 52-62 1487.52 1508.89 32.97% 67.03% -3.80 1-6
2009-06-28 @ Detroit Shock L 72-86 1483.72 1510.36 32.31% 67.69% -4.40 1-7
2009-06-30 @ Chicago Sky L 72-74 1479.32 1481.33 35.48% 64.52% -1.83 1-8
2009-07-02 @ Minnesota Lynx W 74-68 1477.49 1517.69 30.62% 69.38% +6.19 2-8
2009-07-07 Chicago Sky W 83-73 1483.68 1478.90 64.88% 35.12% +4.04 3-8
2009-07-09 @ Seattle Storm L 55-66 1487.72 1533.81 29.91% 70.09% -3.61 3-9
2009-07-11 Phoenix Mercury L 105-107 1484.11 1528.27 58.23% 41.77% -3.00 3-10
2009-07-15 @ Phoenix Mercury L 81-100 1481.11 1531.27 29.42% 70.58% -4.66 3-11
2009-07-17 Seattle Storm L 56-69 1476.45 1527.17 57.31% 42.69% -7.53 3-12
2009-07-19 Detroit Shock L 65-69 1468.92 1509.66 58.71% 41.29% -4.27 3-13
2009-07-22 @ Connecticut Sun L 75-83 1464.65 1526.44 28.05% 71.95% -2.89 3-14
2009-07-23 @ New York Liberty W 88-73 1461.76 1502.81 30.52% 69.48% +9.80 4-14
2009-07-26 @ Washington Mystics L 73-87 1471.56 1470.16 35.93% 64.07% -4.90 4-15
2009-07-30 San Antonio Silver Stars W 101-93 1466.66 1511.81 58.09% 41.91% +4.32 5-15
2009-08-01 Los Angeles Sparks L 56-59 1470.98 1498.73 60.51% 39.49% -3.82 5-16
2009-08-07 New York Liberty L 66-84 1467.16 1475.93 63.09% 36.91% -9.74 5-17
2009-08-11 @ San Antonio Silver Stars W 90-73 1457.42 1506.12 29.59% 70.41% +10.57 6-17
2009-08-14 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 85-79 1467.99 1501.45 31.45% 68.55% +6.11 7-17
2009-08-15 Los Angeles Sparks L 61-78 1474.10 1495.34 61.40% 38.60% -9.21 7-18
2009-08-20 Indiana Fever W 67-62 1464.89 1563.92 50.41% 49.59% +4.03 8-18
2009-08-22 Washington Mystics W 82-60 1468.92 1470.89 63.99% 36.01% +6.15 9-18
2009-08-25 @ Atlanta Dream L 83-103 1475.07 1471.98 36.16% 63.84% -5.89 9-19
2009-08-28 @ Minnesota Lynx L 95-100 1469.18 1470.53 35.57% 64.43% -2.89 9-20
2009-08-29 @ Indiana Fever W 79-78 1466.29 1557.70 24.74% 75.26% +2.74 10-20
2009-09-01 Connecticut Sun W 90-70 1469.03 1505.01 59.37% 40.63% +6.61 11-20
2009-09-04 Atlanta Dream L 90-98 1475.64 1478.67 63.85% 36.15% -6.57 11-21
2009-09-10 San Antonio Silver Stars L 71-80 1469.07 1493.58 60.95% 39.05% -6.66 11-22
2009-09-13 Minnesota Lynx W 88-66 1462.41 1469.70 63.28% 36.72% +6.27 12-22
2009-06-06 @ Phoenix Mercury L 79-90 1518.95 1504.71 37.65% 62.35% -4.54 0-1
2009-06-13 New York Liberty W 63-60 1514.41 1496.49 66.59% 33.41% +2.10 1-1
2009-06-19 @ New York Liberty L 61-77 1516.51 1494.38 38.72% 61.28% -5.63 1-2
2009-06-21 @ Connecticut Sun L 58-71 1510.88 1512.16 35.58% 64.42% -4.67 1-3
2009-06-23 Phoenix Mercury W 91-87 1506.21 1514.12 63.20% 36.80% +2.68 2-3
2009-06-26 Sacramento Monarchs W 62-52 1508.89 1487.52 67.03% 32.97% +3.79 3-3
2009-06-30 Washington Mystics L 82-84 1512.68 1470.36 69.63% 30.37% -3.58 3-4
2009-07-03 Chicago Sky W 85-72 1509.10 1483.16 67.60% 32.40% +4.25 4-4
2009-07-07 @ Seattle Storm L 53-66 1513.35 1529.39 33.65% 66.35% -4.42 4-5
2009-07-10 @ Minnesota Lynx W 77-61 1508.93 1513.07 35.20% 64.80% +9.44 5-5
2009-07-12 Minnesota Lynx L 76-83 1518.37 1503.64 66.18% 33.82% -6.38 5-6
2009-07-15 @ Washington Mystics W 79-78 1511.99 1473.63 40.96% 59.04% +2.15 6-6
2009-07-17 Connecticut Sun L 64-72 1514.14 1516.46 63.95% 36.05% -6.58 6-7
2009-07-19 @ Chicago Sky L 75-85 1507.56 1461.80 42.00% 58.00% -4.84 6-8
2009-07-23 Indiana Fever W 84-65 1502.72 1544.12 58.62% 41.38% +6.57 7-8
2009-07-28 Seattle Storm W 74-71 1509.29 1540.45 60.04% 39.96% +2.52 8-8
2009-07-30 @ Sacramento Monarchs L 93-101 1511.81 1466.66 41.91% 58.09% -4.32 8-9
2009-08-01 @ Seattle Storm L 82-85 1507.49 1537.93 31.83% 68.17% -2.00 8-10
2009-08-04 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 63-59 1505.49 1502.55 36.14% 63.86% +4.65 9-10
2009-08-06 Atlanta Dream L 84-92 1510.14 1460.67 70.50% 29.50% -7.26 9-11
2009-08-09 @ Minnesota Lynx W 89-87 1502.88 1493.84 36.95% 63.05% +3.24 10-11
2009-08-11 Sacramento Monarchs L 73-90 1506.12 1457.42 70.41% 29.59% -10.56 10-12
2009-08-13 @ Phoenix Mercury L 83-95 1495.56 1543.71 29.66% 70.34% -3.74 10-13
2009-08-15 Phoenix Mercury W 106-89 1491.82 1547.45 56.61% 43.39% +6.51 11-13
2009-08-20 @ Atlanta Dream L 87-93 1498.33 1472.80 39.19% 60.81% -3.49 11-14
2009-08-21 Los Angeles Sparks L 66-67 1494.84 1511.08 62.08% 37.92% -2.26 11-15
2009-08-23 @ Detroit Shock L 84-99 1492.58 1504.76 34.15% 65.85% -4.82 11-16
2009-08-27 @ Indiana Fever L 66-77 1487.76 1554.38 27.49% 72.51% -3.32 11-17
2009-08-29 Detroit Shock W 100-88 1484.44 1522.63 59.06% 40.94% +5.16 12-17
2009-09-01 Minnesota Lynx W 84-82 1489.60 1470.10 66.79% 33.21% +1.71 13-17
2009-09-05 Los Angeles Sparks W 89-72 1491.31 1513.23 61.31% 38.69% +5.81 14-17
2009-09-08 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 68-76 1497.12 1507.43 34.40% 65.60% -3.54 14-18
2009-09-10 @ Sacramento Monarchs W 80-71 1493.58 1469.07 39.05% 60.95% +6.66 15-18
2009-09-12 Seattle Storm L 55-64 1500.24 1530.01 60.23% 39.77% -6.58 15-19
2009-06-06 @ Sacramento Monarchs W 71-61 1514.55 1506.33 36.84% 63.16% +7.27 1-0
2009-06-07 Sacramento Monarchs W 80-70 1521.82 1499.06 67.20% 32.80% +3.78 2-0
2009-06-09 @ Indiana Fever L 66-73 1525.60 1489.45 40.65% 59.35% -3.92 2-1
2009-06-12 @ Minnesota Lynx W 88-71 1521.68 1519.48 36.04% 63.96% +9.60 3-1
2009-06-14 @ Chicago Sky L 57-64 1531.28 1480.40 42.72% 57.28% -4.11 3-2
2009-06-19 Minnesota Lynx W 90-62 1527.17 1507.38 66.82% 33.18% +6.39 4-2
2009-06-21 @ Phoenix Mercury W 93-84 1533.56 1520.96 37.43% 62.57% +6.83 5-2
2009-06-26 Los Angeles Sparks W 69-67 1540.39 1507.47 68.48% 31.52% +1.62 6-2
2009-06-28 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 55-82 1542.01 1505.84 40.66% 59.34% -7.69 6-3
2009-07-01 @ Phoenix Mercury L 81-93 1534.32 1509.48 39.09% 60.91% -4.93 6-4
2009-07-07 San Antonio Silver Stars W 66-53 1529.39 1513.35 66.35% 33.65% +4.42 7-4
2009-07-09 Sacramento Monarchs W 66-55 1533.81 1487.72 70.09% 29.91% +3.61 8-4
2009-07-12 Chicago Sky L 81-86 1537.42 1458.91 73.85% 26.15% -6.01 8-5
2009-07-15 Detroit Shock L 63-66 1531.41 1508.58 67.21% 32.79% -4.24 8-6
2009-07-17 @ Sacramento Monarchs W 69-56 1527.17 1476.45 42.69% 57.31% +7.52 9-6
2009-07-19 Minnesota Lynx W 72-69 1534.69 1500.03 68.70% 31.30% +1.98 10-6
2009-07-22 Los Angeles Sparks W 98-87 1536.67 1502.01 68.69% 31.31% +3.78 11-6
2009-07-28 @ San Antonio Silver Stars L 71-74 1540.45 1509.29 39.96% 60.04% -2.52 11-7
2009-08-01 San Antonio Silver Stars W 85-82 1537.93 1507.49 68.17% 31.83% +2.00 12-7
2009-08-04 Phoenix Mercury L 90-101 1539.93 1542.15 63.96% 36.04% -7.72 12-8
2009-08-06 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 75-79 1532.21 1497.90 40.40% 59.60% -2.94 12-9
2009-08-08 New York Liberty W 70-69 1529.27 1485.67 69.79% 30.21% +1.10 13-9
2009-08-13 @ Connecticut Sun L 53-64 1530.37 1523.34 36.68% 63.32% -4.43 13-10
2009-08-15 @ Atlanta Dream L 79-88 1525.94 1468.03 43.71% 56.29% -4.77 13-11
2009-08-18 @ Detroit Shock W 79-75 1521.17 1502.65 38.23% 61.77% +4.50 14-11
2009-08-22 Indiana Fever W 74-60 1525.67 1559.88 59.61% 40.39% +5.50 15-11
2009-08-25 Washington Mystics W 78-68 1531.17 1464.75 72.49% 27.51% +3.16 16-11
2009-08-27 Connecticut Sun W 86-74 1534.33 1517.09 66.50% 33.50% +4.23 17-11
2009-08-29 Atlanta Dream W 91-84 1538.56 1475.66 72.08% 27.92% +2.69 18-11
2009-09-01 @ New York Liberty W 65-58 1541.25 1486.16 43.31% 56.69% +5.46 19-11
2009-09-03 @ Washington Mystics L 67-78 1546.71 1464.91 47.12% 52.88% -5.69 19-12
2009-09-05 @ Minnesota Lynx L 68-76 1541.02 1468.39 45.80% 54.20% -4.72 19-13
2009-09-10 Phoenix Mercury L 84-92 1536.30 1559.57 61.12% 38.88% -6.29 19-14
2009-09-12 @ San Antonio Silver Stars W 64-55 1530.01 1500.24 39.77% 60.23% +6.58 20-14
2009-06-06 @ Connecticut Sun W 82-70 1461.55 1515.94 28.92% 71.08% +8.97 1-0
2009-06-07 Atlanta Dream W 77-71 1470.52 1439.05 68.30% 31.70% +2.82 2-0
2009-06-10 @ Detroit Shock W 75-69 1473.34 1535.53 28.00% 72.00% +6.42 3-0
2009-06-19 @ Atlanta Dream L 81-93 1479.76 1439.12 41.28% 58.72% -5.20 3-1
2009-06-20 Chicago Sky W 81-72 1474.56 1480.32 63.49% 36.51% +3.98 4-1
2009-06-25 Phoenix Mercury L 87-93 1478.54 1511.45 59.80% 40.20% -5.33 4-2
2009-06-27 @ Chicago Sky L 63-68 1473.21 1478.48 35.05% 64.95% -2.85 4-3
2009-06-30 @ San Antonio Silver Stars W 84-82 1470.36 1512.68 30.37% 69.63% +3.58 5-3
2009-07-03 @ Atlanta Dream L 65-72 1473.94 1432.06 41.45% 58.55% -3.99 5-4
2009-07-07 @ Minnesota Lynx L 94-96 1469.95 1511.50 30.46% 69.54% -1.57 5-5
2009-07-11 Los Angeles Sparks W 75-63 1468.38 1511.47 58.38% 41.62% +5.25 6-5
2009-07-15 San Antonio Silver Stars L 78-79 1473.63 1511.99 59.04% 40.96% -2.15 6-6
2009-07-18 New York Liberty W 68-67 1471.48 1496.59 60.87% 39.13% +1.43 7-6
2009-07-21 Indiana Fever L 70-82 1472.91 1537.13 55.40% 44.60% -6.99 7-7
2009-07-23 Chicago Sky W 75-64 1465.92 1460.84 64.92% 35.08% +4.24 8-7
2009-07-26 Sacramento Monarchs W 87-73 1470.16 1471.56 64.07% 35.93% +4.89 9-7
2009-07-28 @ Indiana Fever L 81-85 1475.05 1537.55 27.97% 72.03% -2.03 9-8
2009-07-30 @ New York Liberty W 78-75 1473.02 1487.74 33.83% 66.17% +4.17 10-8
2009-08-02 Indiana Fever L 79-87 1477.19 1543.22 55.14% 44.86% -5.68 10-9
2009-08-07 Detroit Shock W 70-66 1471.51 1507.08 59.43% 40.57% +2.95 11-9
2009-08-09 @ Connecticut Sun L 67-96 1474.46 1517.40 30.29% 69.71% -5.93 11-10
2009-08-11 Detroit Shock L 77-81 1468.53 1506.90 59.04% 40.96% -4.30 11-11
2009-08-14 Connecticut Sun W 91-89 1464.23 1527.77 55.49% 44.51% +2.29 12-11
2009-08-16 New York Liberty L 59-60 1466.52 1481.32 62.27% 37.73% -2.27 12-12
2009-08-18 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 69-72 1464.25 1504.56 30.61% 69.39% -1.93 12-13
2009-08-21 @ Phoenix Mercury W 91-81 1462.32 1546.26 25.55% 74.45% +8.57 13-13
2009-08-22 @ Sacramento Monarchs L 60-82 1470.89 1468.92 36.01% 63.99% -6.14 13-14
2009-08-25 @ Seattle Storm L 68-78 1464.75 1531.17 27.51% 72.49% -3.17 13-15
2009-08-30 Minnesota Lynx W 81-75 1461.58 1473.43 62.67% 37.33% +3.33 14-15
2009-09-03 Seattle Storm W 78-67 1464.91 1546.71 52.88% 47.12% +5.69 15-15
2009-09-04 @ Chicago Sky L 86-92 1470.60 1461.70 36.93% 63.07% -3.30 15-16
2009-09-06 @ Indiana Fever L 61-72 1467.30 1541.65 26.61% 73.39% -3.21 15-17
2009-09-12 Atlanta Dream W 82-64 1464.09 1487.90 61.05% 38.95% +6.02 16-17
2009-09-13 @ New York Liberty L 65-86 1470.11 1470.84 35.65% 64.35% -5.95 16-18

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
2009-09-16 @ Detroit Shock L 89-94 1481.89 1533.29 29.27% 70.73% -2.38 0-1
2009-09-18 Detroit Shock L 79-94 1479.51 1535.67 56.54% 43.46% -7.97 0-2
2009-09-16 Atlanta Dream W 94-89 1533.29 1481.89 70.73% 29.27% +2.38 1-0
2009-09-18 @ Atlanta Dream W 94-79 1535.67 1479.51 43.46% 56.54% +7.97 2-0
2009-09-23 Indiana Fever W 72-56 1543.64 1548.51 63.61% 36.39% +5.30 3-0
2009-09-25 @ Indiana Fever L 75-79 1548.94 1543.21 36.51% 63.49% -2.66 3-1
2009-09-26 @ Indiana Fever L 67-72 1546.28 1545.87 35.80% 64.20% -2.91 3-2
2009-09-17 @ Washington Mystics W 88-79 1540.23 1464.16 46.30% 53.70% +5.86 1-0
2009-09-19 Washington Mystics W 81-74 1546.09 1458.29 74.87% 25.13% +2.42 2-0
2009-09-23 @ Detroit Shock L 56-72 1548.51 1543.64 36.39% 63.61% -5.30 2-1
2009-09-25 Detroit Shock W 79-75 1543.21 1548.94 63.49% 36.51% +2.66 3-1
2009-09-26 Detroit Shock W 72-67 1545.87 1546.28 64.20% 35.80% +2.91 4-1
2009-09-29 @ Phoenix Mercury L 116-120 1548.78 1569.65 33.04% 66.96% -2.40 4-2
2009-10-01 @ Phoenix Mercury W 93-84 1546.38 1572.06 32.43% 67.57% +7.38 5-2
2009-10-04 Phoenix Mercury W 86-85 1553.76 1564.68 62.80% 37.20% +1.35 6-2
2009-10-07 Phoenix Mercury L 77-90 1555.11 1563.32 63.16% 36.84% -8.29 6-3
2009-10-09 @ Phoenix Mercury L 86-94 1546.82 1571.61 32.54% 67.46% -3.35 6-4
2009-09-16 Seattle Storm W 70-63 1521.53 1536.59 62.24% 37.76% +3.64 1-0
2009-09-18 @ Seattle Storm L 74-75 1525.17 1532.95 34.72% 65.28% -1.27 1-1
2009-09-20 @ Seattle Storm W 75-64 1523.90 1534.21 34.40% 65.60% +7.92 2-1
2009-09-23 Phoenix Mercury L 94-103 1531.82 1567.85 59.36% 40.64% -6.48 2-2
2009-09-25 @ Phoenix Mercury W 87-76 1525.34 1574.34 29.56% 70.44% +8.51 3-2
2009-09-26 @ Phoenix Mercury L 74-85 1533.85 1565.83 31.64% 68.36% -3.82 3-3
2009-09-17 @ San Antonio Silver Stars L 91-92 1561.42 1493.66 45.11% 54.89% -1.64 0-1
2009-09-19 San Antonio Silver Stars W 106-78 1559.78 1495.30 72.26% 27.74% +5.34 1-1
2009-09-21 San Antonio Silver Stars W 100-92 1565.12 1489.96 73.48% 26.52% +2.73 2-1
2009-09-23 @ Los Angeles Sparks W 103-94 1567.85 1531.82 40.64% 59.36% +6.49 3-1
2009-09-25 Los Angeles Sparks L 76-87 1574.34 1525.34 70.44% 29.56% -8.51 3-2
2009-09-26 Los Angeles Sparks W 85-74 1565.83 1533.85 68.36% 31.64% +3.82 4-2
2009-09-29 Indiana Fever W 120-116 1569.65 1548.78 66.96% 33.04% +2.41 5-2
2009-10-01 Indiana Fever L 84-93 1572.06 1546.38 67.57% 32.43% -7.38 5-3
2009-10-04 @ Indiana Fever L 85-86 1564.68 1553.76 37.20% 62.80% -1.36 5-4
2009-10-07 @ Indiana Fever W 90-77 1563.32 1555.11 36.84% 63.16% +8.29 6-4
2009-10-09 Indiana Fever W 94-86 1571.61 1546.82 67.46% 32.54% +3.35 7-4
2009-09-17 Phoenix Mercury W 92-91 1493.66 1561.42 54.89% 45.11% +1.64 1-0
2009-09-19 @ Phoenix Mercury L 78-106 1495.30 1559.78 27.74% 72.26% -5.34 1-1
2009-09-21 @ Phoenix Mercury L 92-100 1489.96 1565.12 26.52% 73.48% -2.73 1-2
2009-09-16 @ Los Angeles Sparks L 63-70 1536.59 1521.53 37.76% 62.24% -3.64 0-1
2009-09-18 Los Angeles Sparks W 75-74 1532.95 1525.17 65.28% 34.72% +1.26 1-1
2009-09-20 Los Angeles Sparks L 64-75 1534.21 1523.90 65.60% 34.40% -7.92 1-2
2009-09-17 Indiana Fever L 79-88 1464.16 1540.23 53.70% 46.30% -5.87 0-1
2009-09-19 @ Indiana Fever L 74-81 1458.29 1546.09 25.13% 74.87% -2.42 0-2

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2009-08-29 24.74% Sacramento Monarchs 1466.29 79 @ Indiana Fever 1557.70 78
2 2009-08-21 25.55% Washington Mystics 1462.32 91 @ Phoenix Mercury 1546.26 81
3 2009-06-14 25.88% Atlanta Dream 1433.08 67 @ Connecticut Sun 1514.00 62
4 2009-07-12 26.15% Chicago Sky 1458.91 86 @ Seattle Storm 1537.42 81
5 2009-07-15 26.72% Atlanta Dream 1436.62 91 @ Minnesota Lynx 1510.01 77
6 2009-07-22 26.97% Atlanta Dream 1442.74 98 @ Detroit Shock 1513.94 95
7 2009-06-10 28.00% Washington Mystics 1473.34 75 @ Detroit Shock 1535.53 69
8 2009-06-06 28.92% Washington Mystics 1461.55 82 @ Connecticut Sun 1515.94 70
9 2009-08-06 29.50% Atlanta Dream 1460.67 92 @ San Antonio Silver Stars 1510.14 84
10 2009-09-25 * 29.56% Los Angeles Sparks 1525.34 87 @ Phoenix Mercury 1574.34 76
11 2009-08-11 29.59% Sacramento Monarchs 1457.42 90 @ San Antonio Silver Stars 1506.12 73
12 2009-09-13 29.59% Los Angeles Sparks 1517.09 81 @ Phoenix Mercury 1565.86 78
13 2009-09-01 29.92% Atlanta Dream 1472.97 84 @ Los Angeles Sparks 1518.94 79
14 2009-06-30 30.37% Washington Mystics 1470.36 84 @ San Antonio Silver Stars 1512.68 82
15 2009-07-22 30.52% Minnesota Lynx 1498.05 99 @ Phoenix Mercury 1539.09 86
16 2009-07-23 30.52% Sacramento Monarchs 1461.76 88 @ New York Liberty 1502.81 73
17 2009-07-02 30.62% Sacramento Monarchs 1477.49 74 @ Minnesota Lynx 1517.69 68
18 2009-08-14 31.45% Sacramento Monarchs 1467.99 85 @ Los Angeles Sparks 1501.45 79
19 2009-06-19 31.77% Indiana Fever 1498.16 66 @ Detroit Shock 1529.11 54
20 2009-10-01 * 32.43% Indiana Fever 1546.38 93 @ Phoenix Mercury 1572.06 84
21 2009-08-14 32.60% Chicago Sky 1465.13 88 @ New York Liberty 1489.45 77
22 2009-07-15 32.79% Detroit Shock 1508.58 66 @ Seattle Storm 1531.41 63
23 2009-08-11 32.92% New York Liberty 1484.57 65 @ Los Angeles Sparks 1506.34 61
24 2009-08-25 33.36% Detroit Shock 1509.58 90 @ Connecticut Sun 1527.94 70
25 2009-07-12 33.82% Minnesota Lynx 1503.64 83 @ San Antonio Silver Stars 1518.37 76

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2009-07-10 11.13 Indiana Fever 83 1524.27 43.19% @ Chicago Sky 54 1470.04 56.81%
2 2009-06-07 10.88 Minnesota Lynx 96 1504.29 36.27% @ Indiana Fever 74 1500.33 63.73%
3 2009-08-25 10.85 Detroit Shock 90 1509.58 33.36% @ Connecticut Sun 70 1527.94 66.64%
4 2009-08-11 10.57 Sacramento Monarchs 90 1457.42 29.59% @ San Antonio Silver Stars 73 1506.12 70.41%
5 2009-07-15 9.98 Atlanta Dream 91 1436.62 26.72% @ Minnesota Lynx 77 1510.01 73.28%
6 2009-08-02 9.95 Connecticut Sun 83 1511.30 35.53% @ Detroit Shock 65 1512.90 64.47%
7 2009-07-30 9.83 @ Atlanta Dream 106 1447.34 50.72% Phoenix Mercury 76 1544.20 49.28%
8 2009-07-23 9.80 Sacramento Monarchs 88 1461.76 30.52% @ New York Liberty 73 1502.81 69.48%
9 2009-08-07 9.74 New York Liberty 84 1475.93 36.91% @ Sacramento Monarchs 66 1467.16 63.09%
10 2009-06-12 9.60 Seattle Storm 88 1521.68 36.04% @ Minnesota Lynx 71 1519.48 63.96%
11 2009-09-02 9.53 Phoenix Mercury 106 1545.86 34.55% @ Indiana Fever 90 1554.96 65.45%
12 2009-07-10 9.44 San Antonio Silver Stars 77 1508.93 35.20% @ Minnesota Lynx 61 1513.07 64.80%
13 2009-08-15 9.22 Los Angeles Sparks 78 1495.34 38.60% @ Sacramento Monarchs 61 1474.10 61.40%
14 2009-07-22 9.12 Minnesota Lynx 99 1498.05 30.52% @ Phoenix Mercury 86 1539.09 69.48%
15 2009-07-05 9.04 Phoenix Mercury 104 1514.41 35.86% @ Los Angeles Sparks 89 1513.53 64.14%
16 2009-06-06 8.97 Washington Mystics 82 1461.55 28.92% @ Connecticut Sun 70 1515.94 71.08%
17 2009-07-28 8.95 Phoenix Mercury 95 1535.25 36.53% @ Connecticut Sun 80 1529.33 63.47%
18 2009-06-19 8.61 Indiana Fever 66 1498.16 31.77% @ Detroit Shock 54 1529.11 68.23%
19 2009-08-21 8.57 Washington Mystics 91 1462.32 25.55% @ Phoenix Mercury 81 1546.26 74.45%
20 2009-09-25 * 8.51 Los Angeles Sparks 87 1525.34 29.56% @ Phoenix Mercury 76 1574.34 70.44%
21 2009-10-07 * 8.29 Phoenix Mercury 90 1563.32 36.84% @ Indiana Fever 77 1555.11 63.16%
22 2009-08-14 8.14 Chicago Sky 88 1465.13 32.60% @ New York Liberty 77 1489.45 67.40%
23 2009-09-18 * 7.97 Detroit Shock 94 1535.67 43.46% @ Atlanta Dream 79 1479.51 56.54%
24 2009-09-20 * 7.92 Los Angeles Sparks 75 1523.90 34.40% @ Seattle Storm 64 1534.21 65.60%
25 2009-08-01 7.78 Phoenix Mercury 87 1534.37 40.72% @ Minnesota Lynx 74 1497.77 59.28%