2013 USL Season

156 regular-season games

Final

Season Status

In Progress

Awaiting final results

Title Favorite

Orlando City SC

34.83% chance to win USL Championship

Biggest Overachiever

Richmond Kickers

7.93 points above expected

51 points · 43.07 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Antigua Barracuda FC

10.46 points below expected

0 points · 10.46 expected points

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual points minus the simulation's mean points - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Pt%	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Richmond Kickers	14	1	9	51	.708	48	22	+26	43.07	+7.93
2	Orlando City SC	14	4	6	48	.667	50	26	+24	46.72	+1.28
3	Harrisburg City Islanders	13	9	2	41	.569	52	35	+17	40.90	+0.10
4	Los Angeles Blues	11	7	6	39	.542	48	32	+16	35.97	+3.03
5	Charleston Battery	11	7	6	39	.542	43	28	+15	38.62	+0.38
6	Dayton Dutch Lions	10	8	6	36	.500	38	39	-1	31.20	+4.80
7	Charlotte Eagles	8	5	11	35	.486	40	37	+3	35.40	-0.40
8	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	9	8	7	34	.472	34	32	+2	28.90	+5.10
9	VSI Tampa Bay FC	9	11	4	31	.431	36	33	+3	34.54	-3.54
10	Wilmington Hammerheads	9	11	4	31	.431	32	38	-6	30.18	+0.82
11	Rochester Rhinos	6	10	8	26	.361	24	38	-14	30.13	-4.13
12	Phoenix FC	5	14	5	20	.278	28	41	-13	30.22	-10.22
13	Antigua Barracuda FC	0	24	0	0	.000	10	82	-72	10.46	-10.46

Playoff Bracket

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Elo	Points	Avg. Pts.	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Richmond Kickers	1665	51	43.07	+7.93	91.84%	17	33	39	43	47	53	67
Orlando City SC	1658	48	46.72	+1.28	61.44%	21	37	43	47	51	56	69
Charleston Battery	1587	39	38.62	+0.38	55.65%	14	29	34	39	43	49	64
Harrisburg City Islanders	1583	41	40.90	+0.10	53.92%	15	31	37	41	45	51	65
Los Angeles Blues	1554	39	35.97	+3.03	71.99%	13	26	32	36	40	46	61
Wilmington Hammerheads	1492	31	30.18	+0.82	59.40%	4	21	26	30	34	40	57
Dayton Dutch Lions	1482	36	31.20	+4.80	81.28%	9	22	27	31	35	41	58
Charlotte Eagles	1478	35	35.40	-0.40	50.75%	10	26	31	35	39	45	64
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1464	34	28.90	+5.10	82.81%	6	19	25	29	33	39	53
VSI Tampa Bay FC	1448	31	34.54	-3.54	30.90%	8	25	30	34	39	44	60
Rochester Rhinos	1443	26	30.13	-4.13	27.61%	7	20	26	30	34	40	63
Phoenix FC	1436	20	30.22	-10.22	4.74%	7	21	26	30	34	40	58
Antigua Barracuda FC	1211	0	10.46	-10.46	0.20%	0	4	7	10	13	18	34

Head-to-Head

Cells show the number of points earned against each opponent with the expected points from the simulation below. Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than one point.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	FC	Battery	Eagles	Lions	Islanders	Blues	SC	FC	Riverhounds	Kickers	Rhinos	FC	Hammerheads
Antigua Barracuda FC	—	0 (0.8 exp.)	0 (1.0 exp.)	0 (1.0 exp.)	0 (0.7 exp.)	0 (0.6 exp.)	0 (0.5 exp.)	0 (1.0 exp.)	0 (1.2 exp.)	0 (0.7 exp.)	0 (0.9 exp.)	0 (1.0 exp.)	0 (0.9 exp.)
Charleston Battery	6 (5.0 exp.)	—	1 (3.0 exp.)	6 (3.3 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)	1 (2.1 exp.)	6 (3.5 exp.)	4 (3.6 exp.)	3 (2.4 exp.)	2 (3.5 exp.)	1 (3.0 exp.)	3 (3.7 exp.)
Charlotte Eagles	6 (4.8 exp.)	4 (2.5 exp.)	—	2 (3.0 exp.)	3 (2.3 exp.)	1 (2.7 exp.)	1 (2.0 exp.)	1 (3.5 exp.)	6 (3.3 exp.)	1 (1.9 exp.)	2 (3.3 exp.)	4 (2.8 exp.)	4 (3.2 exp.)
Dayton Dutch Lions	6 (4.7 exp.)	0 (2.2 exp.)	2 (2.5 exp.)	—	3 (1.9 exp.)	4 (2.3 exp.)	1 (1.7 exp.)	4 (2.9 exp.)	4 (3.0 exp.)	0 (1.8 exp.)	6 (2.9 exp.)	6 (2.3 exp.)	0 (3.0 exp.)
Harrisburg City Islanders	6 (5.1 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)	3 (3.3 exp.)	3 (3.6 exp.)	—	1 (3.2 exp.)	1 (2.2 exp.)	6 (3.8 exp.)	3 (3.7 exp.)	0 (2.5 exp.)	6 (3.3 exp.)	6 (3.3 exp.)	3 (4.0 exp.)
Los Angeles Blues	6 (5.2 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)	4 (2.8 exp.)	1 (3.3 exp.)	4 (2.3 exp.)	—	3 (1.8 exp.)	6 (2.8 exp.)	4 (3.5 exp.)	1 (2.4 exp.)	4 (3.4 exp.)	0 (2.8 exp.)	3 (3.0 exp.)
Orlando City SC	6 (5.3 exp.)	4 (3.5 exp.)	4 (3.6 exp.)	4 (3.9 exp.)	4 (3.3 exp.)	3 (3.7 exp.)	—	6 (3.9 exp.)	1 (4.2 exp.)	0 (3.1 exp.)	6 (4.0 exp.)	6 (3.9 exp.)	4 (4.2 exp.)
Phoenix FC	6 (4.7 exp.)	0 (2.1 exp.)	4 (2.0 exp.)	1 (2.7 exp.)	0 (1.9 exp.)	0 (2.8 exp.)	0 (1.7 exp.)	—	1 (3.3 exp.)	1 (1.5 exp.)	1 (2.7 exp.)	3 (2.4 exp.)	3 (2.6 exp.)
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	6 (4.4 exp.)	1 (2.0 exp.)	0 (2.2 exp.)	1 (2.5 exp.)	3 (1.9 exp.)	1 (2.1 exp.)	4 (1.5 exp.)	4 (2.3 exp.)	—	2 (1.7 exp.)	3 (2.9 exp.)	6 (2.7 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)
Richmond Kickers	6 (5.1 exp.)	3 (3.1 exp.)	4 (3.6 exp.)	6 (3.8 exp.)	6 (3.0 exp.)	4 (3.2 exp.)	6 (2.5 exp.)	4 (4.1 exp.)	2 (3.9 exp.)	—	4 (3.7 exp.)	2 (3.7 exp.)	4 (3.4 exp.)
Rochester Rhinos	6 (4.8 exp.)	2 (2.1 exp.)	2 (2.3 exp.)	0 (2.6 exp.)	0 (2.2 exp.)	1 (2.2 exp.)	0 (1.6 exp.)	4 (2.9 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)	1 (1.9 exp.)	—	3 (2.3 exp.)	4 (2.7 exp.)
VSI Tampa Bay FC	6 (4.8 exp.)	4 (2.5 exp.)	1 (2.7 exp.)	0 (3.3 exp.)	0 (2.3 exp.)	6 (2.8 exp.)	0 (1.7 exp.)	3 (3.2 exp.)	0 (2.9 exp.)	2 (1.9 exp.)	3 (3.3 exp.)	—	6 (3.2 exp.)
Wilmington Hammerheads	6 (4.8 exp.)	3 (1.9 exp.)	1 (2.3 exp.)	6 (2.6 exp.)	3 (1.7 exp.)	3 (2.5 exp.)	1 (1.4 exp.)	3 (2.9 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)	1 (2.1 exp.)	1 (2.9 exp.)	0 (2.3 exp.)	—

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's goals in the row and its opponent's goals in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.97%	8.01%	4.49%	1.92%	2.56%	0.96%	26.92%
1	8.01%	5.77%	7.05%	4.49%	2.24%	0.96%	28.53%
2	4.49%	7.05%	6.41%	2.24%	0.96%	0.96%	22.12%
3	1.92%	4.49%	2.24%	2.56%	1.28%	—	12.50%
4	2.56%	2.24%	0.96%	1.28%	—	—	7.05%
5+	0.96%	0.96%	0.96%	—	—	—	2.88%
Total	26.92%	28.53%	22.12%	12.50%	7.05%	2.88%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.55	1.55	+0.00
SD	1.41	1.41	2.03
CV	0.91	0.91	—
Max	8	8	+8
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 156

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	12.50%	16.67%	4.17%	16.67%	12.50%	62.50%
1	—	—	4.17%	16.67%	12.50%	—	33.33%
2	—	—	—	—	—	4.17%	4.17%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	12.50%	20.83%	20.83%	29.17%	16.67%	100%

Antigua Barracuda FC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.42	3.42	-3.00
SD	0.58	1.79	1.74
CV	1.40	0.52	—
Max	2	8	-1
Min	0	1	-8

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	4.17%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
1	12.50%	12.50%	16.67%	—	4.17%	—	45.83%
2	4.17%	4.17%	4.17%	—	4.17%	—	16.67%
3	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
4	4.17%	—	4.17%	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	—	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	37.50%	25.00%	29.17%	—	8.33%	—	100%

Charleston Battery — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.79	1.17	+0.62
SD	1.47	1.20	1.86
CV	0.82	1.03	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.50%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	29.17%
1	8.33%	4.17%	—	—	—	—	12.50%
2	8.33%	4.17%	16.67%	—	—	—	29.17%
3	—	—	8.33%	12.50%	4.17%	—	25.00%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	4.17%	—	—	—	—	—	4.17%
Total	33.33%	16.67%	25.00%	12.50%	12.50%	—	100%

Charlotte Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.67	1.54	+0.12
SD	1.37	1.41	1.78
CV	0.82	0.92	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.50%	12.50%	—	—	4.17%	—	29.17%
1	8.33%	—	4.17%	—	—	4.17%	16.67%
2	—	8.33%	8.33%	4.17%	—	4.17%	25.00%
3	—	20.83%	—	4.17%	—	—	25.00%
4	—	—	—	4.17%	—	—	4.17%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	20.83%	41.67%	12.50%	12.50%	4.17%	8.33%	100%

Dayton Dutch Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.58	1.62	-0.04
SD	1.28	1.50	1.76
CV	0.81	0.92	—
Max	4	5	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	—	8.33%
1	4.17%	—	12.50%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
2	8.33%	12.50%	8.33%	—	4.17%	—	33.33%
3	—	12.50%	—	—	4.17%	—	16.67%
4	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	20.83%	37.50%	25.00%	8.33%	8.33%	—	100%

Harrisburg City Islanders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.17	1.46	+0.71
SD	1.37	1.18	2.05
CV	0.63	0.81	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	8.33%	—	4.17%	—	—	20.83%
1	4.17%	4.17%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	4.17%	12.50%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	33.33%
3	—	4.17%	—	4.17%	—	—	8.33%
4	8.33%	—	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	16.67%
5+	4.17%	—	—	—	—	—	4.17%
Total	29.17%	29.17%	20.83%	20.83%	—	—	100%

Los Angeles Blues — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	1.33	+0.67
SD	1.59	1.13	1.97
CV	0.79	0.85	—
Max	6	3	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.17%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	20.83%
1	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
2	8.33%	4.17%	8.33%	—	—	—	20.83%
3	4.17%	12.50%	8.33%	4.17%	—	—	29.17%
4	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	—	—	4.17%	—	—	—	4.17%
Total	29.17%	37.50%	29.17%	4.17%	—	—	100%

Orlando City SC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.08	1.08	+1.00
SD	1.67	0.88	1.74
CV	0.80	0.81	—
Max	7	3	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	12.50%	8.33%	—	—	—	29.17%
1	12.50%	4.17%	12.50%	12.50%	—	4.17%	45.83%
2	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
3	—	4.17%	—	—	8.33%	—	12.50%
4	4.17%	—	—	—	—	—	4.17%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	20.83%	29.17%	12.50%	8.33%	4.17%	100%

Phoenix FC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.17	1.71	-0.54
SD	1.13	1.43	1.61
CV	0.97	0.84	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.50%	4.17%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
1	4.17%	12.50%	12.50%	—	4.17%	—	33.33%
2	4.17%	12.50%	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	25.00%
3	4.17%	—	4.17%	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	4.17%	—	4.17%	—	—	8.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	33.33%	29.17%	8.33%	4.17%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.42	1.33	+0.08
SD	1.21	1.09	1.47
CV	0.86	0.82	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.50%	—	—	—	—	—	12.50%
1	12.50%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	29.17%
2	16.67%	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	4.17%	29.17%
3	—	—	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	8.33%
4	4.17%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	4.17%	—	—	—	4.17%
Total	45.83%	33.33%	12.50%	4.17%	—	4.17%	100%

Richmond Kickers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	0.92	+1.08
SD	1.41	1.21	1.53
CV	0.71	1.32	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	33.33%
1	12.50%	8.33%	4.17%	12.50%	4.17%	4.17%	45.83%
2	—	4.17%	8.33%	—	—	—	12.50%
3	4.17%	—	—	—	—	—	4.17%
4	—	—	—	4.17%	—	—	4.17%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	20.83%	12.50%	25.00%	4.17%	4.17%	100%

Rochester Rhinos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	1.58	-0.58
SD	1.02	1.50	1.67
CV	1.02	0.95	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.50%	12.50%	4.17%	8.33%	—	—	37.50%
1	12.50%	—	8.33%	4.17%	—	—	25.00%
2	—	4.17%	—	8.33%	—	—	12.50%
3	4.17%	4.17%	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	4.17%	—	—	—	4.17%
5+	4.17%	—	—	—	—	—	4.17%
Total	33.33%	20.83%	20.83%	25.00%	—	—	100%

VSI Tampa Bay FC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.38	+0.12
SD	1.87	1.21	2.27
CV	1.24	0.88	—
Max	8	3	+8
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	4.17%	—	29.17%
1	4.17%	4.17%	8.33%	4.17%	4.17%	—	25.00%
2	4.17%	20.83%	4.17%	4.17%	4.17%	—	37.50%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	41.67%	20.83%	8.33%	12.50%	—	100%

Wilmington Hammerheads — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.33	1.58	-0.25
SD	1.17	1.25	1.78
CV	0.88	0.79	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 24

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.88	+10.2
Allowed	0.84	-8.1
Differential	0.94	+5.0

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Richmond Kickers	51	43.07	+7.93
2	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	34	28.90	+5.10
3	Dayton Dutch Lions	36	31.20	+4.80
4	Los Angeles Blues	39	35.97	+3.03
5	Orlando City SC	48	46.72	+1.28

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Antigua Barracuda FC	0	10.46	-10.46
2	Phoenix FC	20	30.22	-10.22
3	Rochester Rhinos	26	30.13	-4.13
4	VSI Tampa Bay FC	31	34.54	-3.54
5	Charlotte Eagles	35	35.40	-0.40

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak. Unbeaten counts W or T consecutively; Winless counts L or T consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	3	Jul 21 – Aug 4	1 in 91
2	Wilmington Hammerheads	5	Aug 3 – Aug 18	1 in 71
3	Charleston Battery	5	Apr 21 – May 12	1 in 38
4	Harrisburg City Islanders	4	Jun 1 – Jun 16	1 in 27
5	Los Angeles Blues	4	Jul 5 – Jul 14	1 in 23

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Antigua Barracuda FC	24	Apr 14 – Aug 18	1 in 547
2	Wilmington Hammerheads	5	Apr 27 – May 12	1 in 99
3	Harrisburg City Islanders	3	Jul 7 – Jul 14	1 in 57
4	VSI Tampa Bay FC	5	Aug 3 – Aug 11	1 in 44
5	Dayton Dutch Lions	3	Aug 5 – Aug 11	1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Richmond Kickers	20	Apr 7 – Aug 3	1 in 733
2	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	9	May 4 – Jun 23	1 in 223
3	Charlotte Eagles	9	Jun 6 – Jul 26	1 in 81
4	Dayton Dutch Lions	9	May 12 – Jul 4	1 in 57
5	Orlando City SC	10	Apr 15 – Jun 10	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Charleston Battery	10	May 15 – Jul 14	1 in 341
2	Phoenix FC	11	May 4 – Jun 30	1 in 46
3	VSI Tampa Bay FC	7	Jul 29 – Aug 17	1 in 15
4	Antigua Barracuda FC	24	Apr 14 – Aug 18	1 in 14
5	Wilmington Hammerheads	5	Apr 27 – May 12	1 in 9

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
Orlando City SC	47.38%	22.98%	12.60%	7.11%	4.25%	2.46%	1.53%	0.86%	0.47%	0.22%	0.11%	0.03%	-
Richmond Kickers	22.42%	23.45%	17.49%	12.42%	8.42%	5.91%	3.87%	2.52%	1.71%	1.03%	0.54%	0.21%	<0.01%
Harrisburg City Islanders	12.89%	18.11%	17.80%	14.67%	11.21%	8.45%	6.17%	4.34%	2.80%	1.93%	1.13%	0.50%	<0.01%
Charleston Battery	7.32%	12.17%	14.51%	14.42%	12.98%	10.69%	8.41%	6.94%	5.17%	3.69%	2.40%	1.30%	0.01%
Los Angeles Blues	3.32%	6.79%	9.75%	11.55%	12.30%	12.02%	10.97%	9.90%	8.34%	6.69%	5.01%	3.30%	0.04%
Charlotte Eagles	2.58%	5.90%	8.71%	10.79%	11.92%	12.26%	11.60%	10.45%	8.96%	7.32%	5.75%	3.71%	0.07%
VSI Tampa Bay FC	1.98%	4.58%	7.14%	9.70%	11.10%	11.79%	11.89%	11.04%	10.07%	8.73%	7.04%	4.86%	0.09%
Dayton Dutch Lions	0.62%	1.74%	3.27%	5.08%	6.66%	8.63%	10.23%	11.54%	12.55%	13.22%	13.43%	12.68%	0.36%
Phoenix FC	0.40%	1.22%	2.35%	3.85%	5.70%	7.46%	9.43%	10.90%	12.67%	13.99%	15.50%	16.01%	0.53%
Wilmington Hammerheads	0.42%	1.14%	2.39%	3.82%	5.60%	7.25%	9.16%	11.04%	12.82%	14.16%	15.43%	16.30%	0.49%
Rochester Rhinos	0.45%	1.22%	2.37%	3.89%	5.56%	7.22%	8.99%	10.79%	12.38%	14.10%	15.71%	16.75%	0.56%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0.22%	0.71%	1.62%	2.71%	4.30%	5.86%	7.73%	9.67%	12.03%	14.80%	17.54%	21.91%	0.89%
Antigua Barracuda FC	-	-	-	-	-	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.01%	0.04%	0.13%	0.41%	2.45%	96.95%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Orlando City SC	47.38%	22.98%	12.60%	7.11%	4.25%	2.46%	1.53%	0.86%	0.83%
Richmond Kickers	22.42%	23.45%	17.49%	12.42%	8.42%	5.91%	3.87%	2.52%	3.49%
Harrisburg City Islanders	12.89%	18.11%	17.80%	14.67%	11.21%	8.45%	6.17%	4.34%	6.37%
Charleston Battery	7.32%	12.17%	14.51%	14.42%	12.98%	10.69%	8.41%	6.94%	12.57%
Los Angeles Blues	3.32%	6.79%	9.75%	11.55%	12.30%	12.02%	10.97%	9.90%	23.39%
Charlotte Eagles	2.58%	5.90%	8.71%	10.79%	11.92%	12.26%	11.60%	10.45%	25.80%
VSI Tampa Bay FC	1.98%	4.58%	7.14%	9.70%	11.10%	11.79%	11.89%	11.04%	30.78%
Dayton Dutch Lions	0.62%	1.74%	3.27%	5.08%	6.66%	8.63%	10.23%	11.54%	52.23%
Rochester Rhinos	0.45%	1.22%	2.37%	3.89%	5.56%	7.22%	8.99%	10.79%	59.50%
Wilmington Hammerheads	0.42%	1.14%	2.39%	3.82%	5.60%	7.25%	9.16%	11.04%	59.19%
Phoenix FC	0.40%	1.22%	2.35%	3.85%	5.70%	7.46%	9.43%	10.90%	58.69%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0.22%	0.71%	1.62%	2.71%	4.30%	5.86%	7.73%	9.67%	67.18%
Antigua Barracuda FC	-	-	-	-	-	<0.01%	<0.01%	0.01%	99.98%

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 goal is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 goal at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals - average away goals per game. The gold line represents the expected home goals edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -0.8 · Lean Road: -0.8 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 0.8 · Home-Tilted: 0.8 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+31.41%

Fortress

53.85%23.72%22.44%

Elo Value

Home Edge

162 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

0112.95500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.84 goals

Home-Tilted

-2+0.70+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.

Title-Race Openness

4.3

Open Race

124810

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual points total and their simulated average points total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 4.7 · As Expected: 4.7 to 6.46 · Elevated: 6.46 to 8.8 · High Variance: 8.8 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 1.68 · Close: 1.68 to 2.27 · Off Target: 2.27 to 2.96 · Well Off Target: 2.96 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 13 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 13 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.65 · As Expected: 0.65 to 1.56 · Several Outliers: 1.56 to 2.86 · Many Outliers: 2.86 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 1.17 · As Expected: 1.17 to 1.94 · More Than Expected: 1.94 to 3.11 · Far More Than Expected: 3.11 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

5.30 points

As Expected

05.8715

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.23

Pinpoint

01.984

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 96.15%

91.84%

Richmond Kickers

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 3.85%

0.20%

Antigua Barracuda FC

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 13

Several Outliers

01.36

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

1 of 8

Fewer Than Expected

01.68

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly points were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual point totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 1 goal or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.20

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.76

Stratified

01.003

Interquartile Edge

68%

Tilted

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

93%

No Contest

50%92%100%

Close Games

Expected

61%

Nail-Biters

0%54%100%

Blowouts

Expected

19%

Occasional

0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 · Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 · Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 · Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.55

Highly Predictable

00.552

Matchup Imbalance

0.43

Lopsided

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.97

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.53

Weak Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

22%

Chalk Held

0%22%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

18%

Favorites Held

0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.06 · Within Noise: 0.06 to 0.12 · Above Noise: 0.12 to 0.23 · Well Above Noise: 0.23 and up.

Probability calibration

0.21

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.20

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.093

Within Noise

00.1160.3

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual points, simulated final points, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Conference Finals	Advanced to USL Championship	Won USL Championship
Orlando City SC	99.17%	78.50%	54.84%	34.83%
Richmond Kickers	96.51%	73.16%	47.72%	27.91%
Harrisburg City Islanders	93.63%	58.35%	28.83%	12.80%
Charleston Battery	87.43%	50.22%	23.78%	10.55%
Los Angeles Blues	76.61%	36.08%	14.61%	5.61%
Charlotte Eagles	74.20%	26.61%	8.50%	2.54%
VSI Tampa Bay FC	69.22%	21.40%	6.05%	1.60%
Dayton Dutch Lions	47.77%	14.48%	4.27%	1.21%
Wilmington Hammerheads	40.81%	12.07%	3.73%	1.07%
Rochester Rhinos	40.50%	10.29%	2.70%	0.65%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	32.82%	8.63%	2.43%	0.63%
Phoenix FC	41.31%	10.20%	2.54%	0.62%
Antigua Barracuda FC	0.02%	<0.01%	-	-

Loser → ↓ Winner	Antigua Barracuda FC	Charleston Battery	Charlotte Eagles	Dayton Dutch Lions	Harrisburg City Islanders	Los Angeles Blues	Orlando City SC	Phoenix FC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Richmond Kickers	Rochester Rhinos	VSI Tampa Bay FC	Wilmington Hammerheads
Antigua Barracuda FC		0.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%	0.0%<0.01%			0.0%<0.01%		100.0%<0.01%
Charleston Battery	100.0%<0.01%		66.9%10.31%	70.8%5.88%	47.6%11.98%	57.4%10.58%	30.5%9.12%	76.3%5.02%	73.8%3.95%	33.7%11.01%	75.1%5.02%	71.7%9.60%	70.7%4.95%
Charlotte Eagles		33.1%10.31%		53.9%3.88%	30.0%11.30%	39.5%7.99%	17.9%11.24%	60.6%3.02%	59.3%2.33%	19.8%11.52%	60.7%3.03%	54.1%6.57%	55.3%3.00%
Dayton Dutch Lions		29.2%5.88%	46.1%3.88%		28.0%7.40%	34.8%4.18%	17.0%9.93%	56.5%1.31%	55.6%0.95%	17.3%8.48%	55.4%1.26%	51.1%3.23%	52.4%1.28%
Harrisburg City Islanders	100.0%<0.01%	52.4%11.98%	70.0%11.30%	72.0%7.40%		59.9%11.58%	32.2%6.98%	77.1%6.54%	75.1%5.14%	36.3%9.29%	77.1%6.31%	73.6%10.72%	72.1%6.38%
Los Angeles Blues	100.0%<0.01%	42.6%10.58%	60.5%7.99%	65.2%4.18%	40.1%11.58%		25.2%11.01%	70.5%3.38%	69.1%2.69%	28.1%11.59%	70.9%3.29%	65.4%6.98%	66.0%3.33%
Orlando City SC	100.0%<0.01%	69.5%9.12%	82.1%11.24%	83.0%9.93%	67.8%6.98%	74.8%11.01%		86.6%9.18%	85.2%7.66%	55.7%4.87%	85.7%8.86%	84.3%11.39%	82.4%8.91%
Phoenix FC		23.7%5.02%	39.4%3.02%	43.5%1.31%	22.9%6.54%	29.5%3.38%	13.4%9.18%		47.4%0.70%	14.4%7.59%	49.7%1.00%	45.7%2.56%	42.8%0.99%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds		26.2%3.95%	40.7%2.33%	44.4%0.95%	24.9%5.14%	30.9%2.69%	14.8%7.66%	52.6%0.70%		16.5%6.12%	52.6%0.72%	47.6%1.85%	48.1%0.72%
Richmond Kickers	100.0%<0.01%	66.3%11.01%	80.2%11.52%	82.7%8.48%	63.7%9.29%	71.9%11.59%	44.3%4.87%	85.6%7.59%	83.5%6.12%		84.1%7.37%	82.6%11.07%	82.3%7.61%
Rochester Rhinos		24.9%5.02%	39.3%3.03%	44.6%1.26%	22.9%6.31%	29.1%3.29%	14.3%8.86%	50.3%1.00%	47.4%0.72%	15.9%7.37%		44.1%2.62%	43.6%1.02%
VSI Tampa Bay FC	0.0%<0.01%	28.3%9.60%	45.9%6.57%	48.9%3.23%	26.4%10.72%	34.6%6.98%	15.7%11.39%	54.3%2.56%	52.4%1.85%	17.4%11.07%	55.9%2.62%		49.0%2.62%
Wilmington Hammerheads		29.3%4.95%	44.7%3.00%	47.6%1.28%	27.9%6.38%	34.0%3.33%	17.6%8.91%	57.2%0.99%	51.9%0.72%	17.7%7.61%	56.4%1.02%	51.0%2.62%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Antigua Barracuda FC	Charleston Battery	Charlotte Eagles	Dayton Dutch Lions	Harrisburg City Islanders	Los Angeles Blues	Orlando City SC	Phoenix FC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Richmond Kickers	Rochester Rhinos	VSI Tampa Bay FC	Wilmington Hammerheads
Charleston Battery			66.3%3.23%	68.0%1.74%	48.1%8.26%	58.4%4.43%	32.1%13.07%	75.1%1.25%	73.2%1.05%	36.1%12.05%	75.9%1.23%	69.5%2.47%	69.2%1.44%
Charlotte Eagles		33.7%3.23%		53.5%0.83%	30.7%3.98%	40.8%2.10%	21.4%6.86%	60.6%0.59%	54.5%0.54%	22.6%5.94%	60.1%0.63%	55.3%1.18%	54.3%0.74%
Dayton Dutch Lions		32.0%1.74%	46.5%0.83%		28.3%2.10%	36.1%1.22%	18.5%3.55%	56.1%0.32%	54.3%0.28%	20.0%3.11%	51.5%0.29%	52.2%0.65%	49.0%0.40%
Harrisburg City Islanders		51.9%8.26%	69.3%3.98%	71.7%2.10%		58.5%5.62%	33.5%14.52%	75.1%1.43%	71.3%1.24%	37.4%14.76%	74.1%1.48%	72.1%3.16%	70.3%1.80%
Los Angeles Blues		41.6%4.43%	59.2%2.10%	63.9%1.22%	41.5%5.62%		27.7%9.39%	68.8%0.84%	64.7%0.73%	29.9%8.09%	66.8%0.91%	62.7%1.70%	62.8%1.06%
Orlando City SC	100.0%<0.01%	67.9%13.07%	78.6%6.86%	81.5%3.55%	66.5%14.52%	72.3%9.39%		84.5%2.44%	82.2%2.03%	54.7%15.94%	83.3%2.46%	82.6%5.47%	80.4%2.76%
Phoenix FC		24.9%1.25%	39.4%0.59%	43.9%0.32%	24.9%1.43%	31.2%0.84%	15.5%2.44%		48.0%0.17%	16.8%2.17%	43.0%0.25%	43.4%0.48%	39.4%0.25%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds		26.8%1.05%	45.5%0.54%	45.7%0.28%	28.7%1.24%	35.3%0.73%	17.8%2.03%	52.0%0.17%		18.8%1.75%	51.3%0.19%	43.9%0.42%	44.2%0.24%
Richmond Kickers		63.9%12.05%	77.4%5.94%	80.0%3.11%	62.6%14.76%	70.1%8.09%	45.3%15.94%	83.2%2.17%	81.2%1.75%		84.1%2.08%	80.8%4.76%	79.2%2.51%
Rochester Rhinos		24.1%1.23%	39.9%0.63%	48.5%0.29%	25.9%1.48%	33.2%0.91%	16.7%2.46%	57.0%0.25%	48.7%0.19%	15.9%2.08%		45.9%0.50%	41.9%0.28%
VSI Tampa Bay FC		30.5%2.47%	44.7%1.18%	47.8%0.65%	27.9%3.16%	37.3%1.70%	17.4%5.47%	56.6%0.48%	56.1%0.42%	19.2%4.76%	54.1%0.50%		48.9%0.61%
Wilmington Hammerheads		30.8%1.44%	45.7%0.74%	51.0%0.40%	29.7%1.80%	37.2%1.06%	19.6%2.76%	60.6%0.25%	55.8%0.24%	20.8%2.51%	58.1%0.28%	51.1%0.61%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Charleston Battery	Charlotte Eagles	Dayton Dutch Lions	Harrisburg City Islanders	Los Angeles Blues	Orlando City SC	Phoenix FC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Richmond Kickers	Rochester Rhinos	VSI Tampa Bay FC	Wilmington Hammerheads
Charleston Battery		66.6%0.91%	68.7%0.48%	49.1%3.54%	56.3%1.76%	34.8%8.49%	75.4%0.28%	73.8%0.27%	38.6%6.66%	71.8%0.30%	67.2%0.67%	67.1%0.41%
Charlotte Eagles	33.4%0.91%		53.7%0.16%	33.6%1.18%	42.5%0.59%	22.4%2.81%	47.0%0.10%	56.3%0.09%	23.8%2.23%	60.4%0.09%	58.0%0.20%	51.8%0.14%
Dayton Dutch Lions	31.3%0.48%	46.3%0.16%		33.4%0.55%	33.5%0.27%	20.1%1.33%	60.9%0.05%	63.2%0.04%	22.7%1.16%	67.3%0.05%	54.4%0.10%	48.5%0.07%
Harrisburg City Islanders	50.9%3.54%	66.4%1.18%	66.6%0.55%		57.0%2.11%	35.2%10.97%	71.3%0.35%	64.3%0.32%	38.7%8.09%	72.5%0.37%	68.6%0.83%	68.3%0.52%
Los Angeles Blues	43.7%1.76%	57.5%0.59%	66.5%0.27%	43.0%2.11%		29.8%4.73%	63.7%0.17%	64.0%0.14%	31.6%4.03%	68.7%0.17%	67.4%0.40%	63.7%0.25%
Orlando City SC	65.2%8.49%	77.6%2.81%	79.9%1.33%	64.8%10.97%	70.2%4.73%		84.5%0.78%	82.6%0.74%	52.9%20.94%	82.9%0.87%	81.1%2.01%	78.6%1.17%
Phoenix FC	24.6%0.28%	53.0%0.10%	39.1%0.05%	28.7%0.35%	36.3%0.17%	15.5%0.78%		48.3%0.03%	19.7%0.68%	55.0%0.02%	34.0%0.05%	46.2%0.04%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	26.2%0.27%	43.7%0.09%	36.8%0.04%	35.7%0.32%	36.0%0.14%	17.4%0.74%	51.7%0.03%		18.8%0.69%	64.0%0.03%	52.4%0.06%	52.9%0.03%
Richmond Kickers	61.4%6.66%	76.2%2.23%	77.3%1.16%	61.3%8.09%	68.4%4.03%	47.1%20.94%	80.3%0.68%	81.2%0.69%		80.7%0.69%	77.7%1.58%	76.8%0.97%
Rochester Rhinos	28.2%0.30%	39.6%0.09%	32.7%0.05%	27.5%0.37%	31.3%0.17%	17.1%0.87%	45.0%0.02%	36.0%0.03%	19.3%0.69%		52.2%0.07%	46.2%0.04%
VSI Tampa Bay FC	32.8%0.67%	42.0%0.20%	45.6%0.10%	31.4%0.83%	32.6%0.40%	18.9%2.01%	66.0%0.05%	47.6%0.06%	22.3%1.58%	47.8%0.07%		43.8%0.08%
Wilmington Hammerheads	32.9%0.41%	48.2%0.14%	51.5%0.07%	31.7%0.52%	36.3%0.25%	21.4%1.17%	53.8%0.04%	47.1%0.03%	23.2%0.97%	53.8%0.04%	56.2%0.08%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Conference Finals	Advanced to USL Championship	Won USL Championship
Richmond Kickers	84.51%	64.81%	45.01%
Orlando City SC	85.39%	63.40%	30.43%
Harrisburg City Islanders	77.69%	25.39%	10.53%
Charleston Battery	69.91%	23.55%	8.02%
Los Angeles Blues	30.09%	9.54%	3.07%
Charlotte Eagles	22.31%	5.49%	1.22%
Dayton Dutch Lions	15.49%	4.31%	0.99%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	14.61%	3.51%	0.73%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Charleston Battery	Charlotte Eagles	Dayton Dutch Lions	Harrisburg City Islanders	Los Angeles Blues	Orlando City SC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Richmond Kickers
Charleston Battery					69.9%100.00%
Charlotte Eagles				22.3%100.00%
Dayton Dutch Lions								15.5%100.00%
Harrisburg City Islanders		77.7%100.00%
Los Angeles Blues	30.1%100.00%
Orlando City SC							85.4%100.00%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds						14.6%100.00%
Richmond Kickers			84.5%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Charleston Battery	Charlotte Eagles	Dayton Dutch Lions	Harrisburg City Islanders	Los Angeles Blues	Orlando City SC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Richmond Kickers
Charleston Battery						26.4%59.78%	76.5%10.13%
Charlotte Eagles			64.4%3.50%					17.2%18.81%
Dayton Dutch Lions		35.6%3.50%		25.6%11.99%
Harrisburg City Islanders			74.4%11.99%					25.1%65.70%
Los Angeles Blues						24.2%25.61%	74.7%4.48%
Orlando City SC	73.6%59.78%				75.8%25.61%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	23.5%10.13%				25.3%4.48%
Richmond Kickers		82.8%18.81%		74.9%65.70%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Charleston Battery	Charlotte Eagles	Dayton Dutch Lions	Harrisburg City Islanders	Los Angeles Blues	Orlando City SC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Richmond Kickers
Charleston Battery		75.7%1.31%	76.2%0.98%	35.7%5.91%				27.1%15.35%
Charlotte Eagles	24.3%1.31%				23.5%0.51%	18.9%3.48%	63.0%0.19%
Dayton Dutch Lions	23.8%0.98%				25.2%0.44%	19.7%2.74%	73.5%0.15%
Harrisburg City Islanders	64.3%5.91%				67.5%2.47%	27.4%16.14%	74.1%0.88%
Los Angeles Blues		76.5%0.51%	74.8%0.44%	32.5%2.47%				25.3%6.12%
Orlando City SC		81.1%3.48%	80.3%2.74%	72.6%16.14%				33.3%41.04%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds		37.0%0.19%	26.5%0.15%	25.9%0.88%				17.2%2.30%
Richmond Kickers	72.9%15.35%				74.7%6.12%	66.7%41.04%	82.8%2.30%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Richmond Kickers 45.01% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Dayton Dutch Lions

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

84.51%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Harrisburg City Islanders

Matchup

75.96%

Win Prob

74.93%

→

USL Championship

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

60.77%

Win Prob

66.66%

Orlando City SC 30.43% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

85.39%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Charleston Battery

Matchup

69.37%

Win Prob

73.57%

→

USL Championship

vs. Richmond Kickers

Matchup

44.96%

Win Prob

33.34%

Harrisburg City Islanders 10.53% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Charlotte Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

77.69%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Richmond Kickers

Matchup

64.86%

Win Prob

25.07%

→

USL Championship

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

41.95%

Win Prob

27.36%

Charleston Battery 8.02% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Los Angeles Blues

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

69.91%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

67.09%

Win Prob

26.43%

→

USL Championship

vs. Richmond Kickers

Matchup

51.96%

Win Prob

27.13%

Los Angeles Blues 3.07% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Charleston Battery

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

30.09%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

64.93%

Win Prob

24.18%

→

USL Championship

vs. Richmond Kickers

Matchup

50.52%

Win Prob

25.33%

Charlotte Eagles 1.22% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Harrisburg City Islanders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

22.31%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Richmond Kickers

Matchup

58.86%

Win Prob

17.17%

→

USL Championship

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

54.11%

Win Prob

18.92%

Dayton Dutch Lions 0.99% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Richmond Kickers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

15.49%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Harrisburg City Islanders

Matchup

71.11%

Win Prob

25.58%

→

USL Championship

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

54.43%

Win Prob

19.72%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 0.73% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

14.61%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Charleston Battery

Matchup

67.69%

Win Prob

23.46%

→

USL Championship

vs. Richmond Kickers

Matchup

54.10%

Win Prob

17.23%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
2013-04-14	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 0-2	1392.75	1535.16	13.78%	16.16%	70.06%	-8.16	0
2013-04-20	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 0-2	1384.59	1526.31	13.82%	16.19%	69.99%	-8.19	0
2013-04-21	@ Charleston Battery	L 0-4	1376.40	1515.22	13.98%	16.34%	69.68%	-15.76	0
2013-05-04	@ VSI Tampa Bay FC	L 1-3	1360.64	1518.05	12.99%	15.38%	71.63%	-6.58	0
2013-05-05	@ Orlando City SC	L 2-7	1354.06	1649.54	7.27%	8.98%	83.75%	-6.16	0
2013-05-11	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 0-4	1347.90	1553.21	10.72%	12.96%	76.33%	-11.43	0
2013-05-12	@ Richmond Kickers	L 1-4	1336.47	1569.89	9.53%	11.62%	78.84%	-6.41	0
2013-05-25	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 0-2	1330.06	1403.17	18.02%	19.73%	62.25%	-11.15	0
2013-05-27	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	L 1-3	1318.91	1447.75	14.53%	16.87%	68.60%	-7.53	0
2013-06-08	@ VSI Tampa Bay FC	L 0-8	1311.38	1530.33	10.13%	12.30%	77.57%	-20.56	0
2013-06-10	@ Orlando City SC	L 0-2	1290.82	1676.82	4.75%	5.95%	89.30%	-2.33	0
2013-06-15	@ Richmond Kickers	L 0-4	1288.49	1588.72	7.12%	8.80%	84.09%	-7.03	0
2013-06-16	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 1-3	1281.46	1624.56	5.84%	7.26%	86.90%	-2.56	0
2013-06-22	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 1-2	1278.90	1457.05	11.97%	14.31%	73.72%	-3.44	0
2013-06-23	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 1-4	1275.46	1456.03	11.85%	14.19%	73.96%	-8.33	0
2013-07-05	@ Los Angeles Blues	L 0-6	1267.13	1518.94	8.81%	10.79%	80.39%	-13.24	0
2013-07-07	@ Phoenix FC	L 0-1	1253.89	1422.52	12.43%	14.80%	72.77%	-3.82	0
2013-07-12	@ Phoenix FC	L 0-1	1250.07	1426.34	12.06%	14.41%	73.54%	-3.69	0
2013-07-14	@ Los Angeles Blues	L 0-4	1246.38	1568.68	6.43%	7.98%	85.59%	-6.25	0
2013-07-27	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	L 1-3	1240.13	1464.66	9.90%	12.04%	78.07%	-4.74	0
2013-07-28	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 0-1	1235.39	1444.71	10.54%	12.76%	76.70%	-3.13	0
2013-08-11	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 0-5	1232.26	1468.94	9.40%	11.47%	79.13%	-12.04	0
2013-08-16	@ Charleston Battery	L 0-3	1220.22	1583.62	5.30%	6.62%	88.08%	-3.84	0
2013-08-18	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-4	1216.38	1486.38	8.14%	10.01%	81.85%	-5.32	0
2013-04-14	@ Richmond Kickers	L 1-4	1535.30	1510.75	26.40%	23.77%	49.83%	-20.08	0
2013-04-21	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 4-0	1515.22	1376.40	69.68%	16.34%	13.98%	+15.75	3
2013-04-28	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 2-0	1530.97	1395.70	69.30%	16.53%	14.17%	+8.44	6
2013-05-02	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	W 2-1	1539.41	1555.69	22.47%	22.32%	55.21%	+14.80	9
2013-05-04	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	W 1-0	1554.21	1451.48	35.97%	25.13%	38.89%	+11.92	12
2013-05-12	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 4-2	1566.13	1446.38	67.60%	17.34%	15.05%	+7.02	15
2013-05-15	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 0-1	1573.15	1549.70	26.28%	23.74%	49.98%	-8.66	15
2013-05-26	Rochester Rhinos	T 0-0	1564.49	1445.19	67.55%	17.37%	15.08%	-3.90	16
2013-06-01	Harrisburg City Islanders	L 1-2	1560.59	1549.92	54.49%	22.54%	22.97%	-14.65	16
2013-06-06	Charlotte Eagles	T 2-2	1545.94	1497.68	59.24%	20.92%	19.84%	-1.93	17
2013-06-16	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 1-1	1544.01	1438.98	36.29%	25.14%	38.56%	+0.14	18
2013-06-16	@ Rochester Rhinos	T 1-1	1544.15	1457.50	33.78%	25.03%	41.19%	+0.45	19
2013-06-23	VSI Tampa Bay FC	T 0-0	1544.60	1504.40	58.24%	21.29%	20.47%	-2.77	20
2013-07-06	Orlando City SC	T 1-1	1541.83	1644.98	38.83%	25.14%	36.03%	-0.17	21
2013-07-12	@ Orlando City SC	L 1-2	1541.66	1645.15	16.03%	18.19%	65.78%	-4.88	21
2013-07-14	@ VSI Tampa Bay FC	L 2-4	1536.78	1507.34	26.92%	23.92%	49.17%	-12.92	21
2013-07-20	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 1-0	1523.86	1484.33	58.16%	21.32%	20.52%	+6.80	24
2013-07-25	Phoenix FC	W 5-1	1530.66	1431.36	65.31%	18.40%	16.29%	+15.71	27
2013-07-28	Los Angeles Blues	W 3-0	1546.37	1563.59	50.82%	23.54%	25.64%	+23.19	30
2013-08-03	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-2	1569.56	1430.58	41.15%	25.03%	33.82%	-11.73	30
2013-08-04	Richmond Kickers	W 5-2	1557.83	1665.55	38.18%	25.15%	36.68%	+22.81	33
2013-08-09	@ Los Angeles Blues	L 1-2	1580.64	1539.89	28.15%	24.22%	47.63%	-8.68	33
2013-08-11	@ Phoenix FC	W 1-0	1571.96	1461.57	37.06%	25.15%	37.79%	+11.66	36
2013-08-16	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 3-0	1583.62	1220.22	88.08%	6.62%	5.30%	+3.84	39
2013-04-14	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-0	1535.16	1392.75	70.06%	16.16%	13.78%	+8.17	3
2013-04-20	Rochester Rhinos	T 0-0	1543.33	1480.22	61.05%	20.22%	18.73%	-3.13	4
2013-04-24	Orlando City SC	T 1-1	1540.20	1635.72	39.93%	25.10%	34.98%	-0.30	5
2013-04-27	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 2-0	1539.90	1404.12	69.35%	16.50%	14.14%	+8.42	8
2013-05-05	@ Richmond Kickers	T 3-3	1548.32	1571.27	21.89%	22.04%	56.07%	+1.38	9
2013-05-15	Charleston Battery	W 1-0	1549.70	1573.15	49.98%	23.74%	26.28%	+8.66	12
2013-05-24	@ Phoenix FC	T 2-2	1558.36	1446.30	37.30%	25.15%	37.55%	+0.02	13
2013-05-26	@ Los Angeles Blues	L 3-4	1558.38	1527.39	27.08%	23.96%	48.96%	-7.77	13
2013-06-02	Harrisburg City Islanders	L 0-4	1550.61	1564.57	51.25%	23.44%	25.31%	-52.93	13
2013-06-06	@ Charleston Battery	T 2-2	1497.68	1545.94	19.84%	20.92%	59.24%	+1.94	14
2013-06-22	VSI Tampa Bay FC	W 1-0	1499.62	1512.74	51.36%	23.41%	25.23%	+8.34	17
2013-06-23	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	T 0-0	1507.96	1441.52	31.18%	24.76%	44.05%	+0.89	18
2013-06-29	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	T 2-2	1508.85	1482.73	26.56%	23.82%	49.62%	+1.09	19
2013-07-05	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 3-2	1509.94	1464.36	28.70%	24.34%	46.96%	+12.34	22
2013-07-07	@ Rochester Rhinos	T 2-2	1522.28	1445.89	32.44%	24.91%	42.65%	+0.47	23
2013-07-14	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 3-2	1522.75	1454.53	61.67%	19.97%	18.36%	+5.40	26
2013-07-21	Dayton Dutch Lions	T 0-0	1528.15	1477.52	59.53%	20.81%	19.66%	-2.94	27
2013-07-26	Los Angeles Blues	T 3-3	1525.21	1562.80	48.06%	24.14%	27.80%	-0.79	28
2013-07-28	Phoenix FC	L 0-4	1524.42	1415.64	66.38%	17.91%	15.71%	-64.78	28
2013-08-03	Richmond Kickers	L 0-1	1459.64	1656.72	26.85%	23.90%	49.25%	-8.83	28
2013-08-08	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	W 2-1	1450.81	1613.75	12.71%	15.09%	72.20%	+18.13	31
2013-08-11	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 5-0	1468.94	1232.26	79.13%	11.47%	9.40%	+12.04	34
2013-08-17	@ VSI Tampa Bay FC	T 3-3	1480.98	1449.34	27.15%	23.98%	48.87%	+0.85	35
2013-08-18	@ Orlando City SC	L 0-1	1481.83	1653.94	12.26%	14.62%	73.12%	-3.76	35
2013-04-21	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 2-1	1440.71	1410.79	56.95%	21.75%	21.30%	+6.66	3
2013-04-27	@ VSI Tampa Bay FC	W 1-0	1447.37	1535.68	17.00%	18.97%	64.04%	+17.63	6
2013-04-28	@ Orlando City SC	L 0-4	1465.00	1636.02	12.31%	14.67%	73.01%	-13.52	6
2013-05-04	Charleston Battery	L 0-1	1451.48	1554.21	38.89%	25.13%	35.97%	-11.92	6
2013-05-12	Phoenix FC	W 4-3	1439.56	1453.60	51.24%	23.44%	25.32%	+7.30	9
2013-05-19	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 2-2	1446.86	1404.06	28.39%	24.27%	47.34%	+0.89	10
2013-05-27	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 3-1	1447.75	1318.91	68.60%	16.87%	14.53%	+7.53	13
2013-06-03	Los Angeles Blues	T 0-0	1455.28	1535.50	42.11%	24.96%	32.93%	-0.63	14
2013-06-17	VSI Tampa Bay FC	W 2-1	1454.65	1522.24	43.89%	24.78%	31.33%	+9.50	17
2013-06-22	@ Phoenix FC	T 0-0	1464.15	1424.43	28.04%	24.19%	47.77%	+1.39	18
2013-06-24	@ Los Angeles Blues	W 1-0	1465.54	1536.13	18.20%	19.85%	61.95%	+17.19	21
2013-06-29	Charlotte Eagles	T 2-2	1482.73	1508.85	49.62%	23.82%	26.56%	-1.10	22
2013-07-04	Rochester Rhinos	W 3-1	1481.63	1457.71	56.19%	22.00%	21.81%	+11.83	25
2013-07-07	Richmond Kickers	L 2-3	1493.46	1628.59	34.33%	25.06%	40.61%	-9.70	25
2013-07-15	Orlando City SC	T 3-3	1483.76	1650.03	30.35%	24.64%	45.01%	+0.57	26
2013-07-20	@ Charleston Battery	L 0-1	1484.33	1523.86	20.52%	21.32%	58.16%	-6.81	26
2013-07-21	@ Charlotte Eagles	T 0-0	1477.52	1528.15	19.66%	20.81%	59.53%	+2.94	27
2013-07-25	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 1-5	1480.46	1578.59	16.36%	18.46%	65.17%	-15.80	27
2013-07-27	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 3-1	1464.66	1240.13	78.07%	12.04%	9.90%	+4.74	30
2013-08-03	@ Rochester Rhinos	W 3-1	1469.40	1447.85	26.09%	23.68%	50.23%	+23.77	33
2013-08-05	Wilmington Hammerheads	L 0-1	1493.17	1442.32	59.56%	20.80%	19.64%	-16.66	33
2013-08-10	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-2	1476.51	1458.99	25.67%	23.55%	50.78%	-8.00	33
2013-08-11	@ Richmond Kickers	L 2-5	1468.51	1642.74	12.15%	14.51%	73.33%	-7.44	33
2013-08-18	Harrisburg City Islanders	W 3-1	1461.07	1603.03	33.42%	25.00%	41.58%	+20.49	36
2013-04-14	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 2-1	1526.63	1421.97	36.24%	25.14%	38.61%	+11.18	3
2013-04-28	Rochester Rhinos	W 5-1	1537.81	1468.14	61.84%	19.90%	18.26%	+17.88	6
2013-05-02	Charleston Battery	L 1-2	1555.69	1539.41	55.21%	22.32%	22.47%	-14.80	6
2013-05-05	@ Rochester Rhinos	W 1-0	1540.89	1450.26	34.31%	25.06%	40.62%	+12.32	9
2013-05-11	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 4-0	1553.21	1347.90	76.33%	12.96%	10.72%	+11.44	12
2013-05-18	Orlando City SC	T 2-2	1564.65	1655.69	40.57%	25.07%	34.37%	-0.28	13
2013-05-25	@ Richmond Kickers	L 0-2	1564.37	1573.81	23.08%	22.59%	54.33%	-14.45	13
2013-06-01	@ Charleston Battery	W 2-1	1549.92	1560.59	22.97%	22.54%	54.49%	+14.65	16
2013-06-02	@ Charlotte Eagles	W 4-0	1564.57	1550.61	25.31%	23.44%	51.25%	+52.92	19
2013-06-06	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 2-0	1617.49	1444.72	73.19%	14.58%	12.23%	+7.07	22
2013-06-16	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 3-1	1624.56	1281.46	86.90%	7.26%	5.84%	+2.55	25
2013-06-22	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 3-4	1627.11	1438.85	74.71%	13.80%	11.49%	-17.18	25
2013-06-29	Phoenix FC	W 2-1	1609.93	1423.04	74.58%	13.87%	11.55%	+3.30	28
2013-07-07	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-2	1613.23	1441.79	45.73%	24.54%	29.74%	-12.74	28
2013-07-11	Los Angeles Blues	L 2-4	1600.49	1544.12	60.23%	20.54%	19.22%	-24.56	28
2013-07-14	Richmond Kickers	L 0-1	1575.93	1636.94	44.82%	24.66%	30.52%	-13.30	28
2013-07-20	@ VSI Tampa Bay FC	W 2-0	1562.63	1520.26	28.34%	24.26%	47.40%	+26.21	31
2013-07-21	@ Orlando City SC	L 1-3	1588.84	1647.66	19.04%	20.43%	60.53%	-10.25	31
2013-07-25	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 5-1	1578.59	1480.46	65.17%	18.46%	16.36%	+15.80	34
2013-08-01	@ Phoenix FC	W 3-1	1594.39	1480.42	37.57%	25.15%	37.28%	+18.85	37
2013-08-04	@ Los Angeles Blues	T 2-2	1613.24	1540.40	31.99%	24.86%	43.15%	+0.51	38
2013-08-08	Charlotte Eagles	L 1-2	1613.75	1450.81	72.20%	15.09%	12.71%	-18.13	38
2013-08-11	VSI Tampa Bay FC	W 3-1	1595.62	1463.34	68.98%	16.69%	14.34%	+7.41	41
2013-08-18	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	L 1-3	1603.03	1461.07	41.58%	25.00%	33.42%	-20.48	41
2013-03-24	Phoenix FC	W 2-0	1482.24	1500.00	50.74%	23.56%	25.70%	+15.99	3
2013-04-03	VSI Tampa Bay FC	L 0-1	1498.23	1491.57	53.97%	22.70%	23.33%	-15.41	3
2013-04-11	Orlando City SC	W 1-0	1482.82	1636.94	31.85%	24.85%	43.30%	+12.94	6
2013-04-15	@ Phoenix FC	W 3-1	1495.76	1474.25	26.08%	23.68%	50.24%	+23.78	9
2013-04-20	@ Orlando City SC	L 2-3	1519.54	1631.26	15.53%	17.76%	66.71%	-4.46	9
2013-04-22	@ VSI Tampa Bay FC	L 2-3	1515.08	1528.94	22.68%	22.42%	54.90%	-6.74	9
2013-04-27	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 4-0	1508.34	1534.50	49.61%	23.82%	26.57%	+31.29	12
2013-05-06	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 0-0	1539.63	1390.26	70.79%	15.79%	13.41%	-4.26	13
2013-05-18	@ Richmond Kickers	T 1-1	1535.37	1576.30	20.41%	21.26%	58.33%	+2.48	14
2013-05-19	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-2	1537.85	1439.36	35.38%	25.12%	39.50%	-10.46	14
2013-05-26	Charlotte Eagles	W 4-3	1527.39	1558.38	48.96%	23.96%	27.08%	+7.77	17
2013-06-01	@ Rochester Rhinos	T 2-2	1535.16	1449.10	33.70%	25.02%	41.28%	+0.34	18
2013-06-03	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	T 0-0	1535.50	1455.28	32.93%	24.96%	42.11%	+0.63	19
2013-06-24	Dayton Dutch Lions	L 0-1	1536.13	1465.54	61.95%	19.85%	18.20%	-17.19	19
2013-07-05	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 6-0	1518.94	1267.13	80.39%	10.79%	8.81%	+13.24	22
2013-07-07	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 2-1	1532.18	1452.02	32.93%	24.96%	42.12%	+11.94	25
2013-07-11	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	W 4-2	1544.12	1600.49	19.22%	20.54%	60.23%	+24.56	28
2013-07-14	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 4-0	1568.68	1246.38	85.59%	7.98%	6.43%	+6.26	31
2013-07-22	Richmond Kickers	L 1-2	1574.94	1648.90	42.99%	24.88%	32.13%	-12.14	31
2013-07-26	@ Charlotte Eagles	T 3-3	1562.80	1525.21	27.80%	24.14%	48.06%	+0.79	32
2013-07-28	@ Charleston Battery	L 0-3	1563.59	1546.37	25.64%	23.54%	50.82%	-23.19	32
2013-08-04	Harrisburg City Islanders	T 2-2	1540.40	1613.24	43.15%	24.86%	31.99%	-0.51	33
2013-08-09	Charleston Battery	W 2-1	1539.89	1580.64	47.63%	24.22%	28.15%	+8.68	36
2013-08-18	Rochester Rhinos	W 2-1	1548.57	1447.64	65.49%	18.32%	16.19%	+4.94	39
2013-04-08	@ Phoenix FC	W 3-1	1618.75	1492.43	39.34%	25.12%	35.53%	+18.19	3
2013-04-11	@ Los Angeles Blues	L 0-1	1636.94	1482.82	43.30%	24.85%	31.85%	-12.95	3
2013-04-15	Rochester Rhinos	W 3-1	1623.99	1487.48	69.43%	16.46%	14.10%	+7.27	6
2013-04-20	Los Angeles Blues	W 3-2	1631.26	1519.54	66.71%	17.76%	15.53%	+4.46	9
2013-04-24	@ Charlotte Eagles	T 1-1	1635.72	1540.20	34.98%	25.10%	39.93%	+0.30	10
2013-04-28	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 4-0	1636.02	1465.00	73.01%	14.67%	12.31%	+13.52	13
2013-05-05	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 7-2	1649.54	1354.06	83.75%	8.98%	7.27%	+6.15	16
2013-05-18	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	T 2-2	1655.69	1564.65	34.37%	25.07%	40.57%	+0.28	17
2013-05-19	@ Rochester Rhinos	W 1-0	1655.97	1453.87	49.93%	23.75%	26.32%	+8.68	20
2013-05-26	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 4-1	1664.65	1449.82	77.20%	12.50%	10.30%	+7.04	23
2013-06-08	Phoenix FC	W 2-0	1671.69	1434.32	79.18%	11.44%	9.38%	+5.13	26
2013-06-10	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-0	1676.82	1290.82	89.30%	5.95%	4.75%	+2.33	29
2013-06-30	Richmond Kickers	L 0-2	1679.15	1595.75	63.47%	19.21%	17.32%	-33.01	29
2013-07-04	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	T 2-2	1646.14	1440.63	50.39%	23.64%	25.97%	-1.16	30
2013-07-06	@ Charleston Battery	T 1-1	1644.98	1541.83	36.03%	25.14%	38.83%	+0.17	31
2013-07-12	Charleston Battery	W 2-1	1645.15	1541.66	65.78%	18.19%	16.03%	+4.88	34
2013-07-15	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	T 3-3	1650.03	1483.76	45.01%	24.64%	30.35%	-0.56	35
2013-07-18	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 0-0	1649.47	1440.08	50.91%	23.52%	25.57%	-1.81	36
2013-07-21	Harrisburg City Islanders	W 3-1	1647.66	1588.84	60.53%	20.43%	19.04%	+10.25	39
2013-08-04	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 0-1	1657.91	1465.62	75.10%	13.60%	11.30%	-19.75	39
2013-08-05	@ VSI Tampa Bay FC	W 3-0	1638.16	1495.24	41.71%	24.99%	33.30%	+28.98	42
2013-08-07	VSI Tampa Bay FC	W 3-2	1667.14	1466.26	75.91%	13.17%	10.91%	+2.93	45
2013-08-15	@ Richmond Kickers	L 0-2	1670.07	1650.18	25.91%	23.63%	50.46%	-16.13	45
2013-08-18	Charlotte Eagles	W 1-0	1653.94	1481.83	73.12%	14.62%	12.26%	+3.76	48
2013-03-24	@ Los Angeles Blues	L 0-2	1500.00	1482.24	25.70%	23.56%	50.74%	-16.00	0
2013-03-31	VSI Tampa Bay FC	W 1-0	1484.00	1500.00	50.98%	23.50%	25.52%	+8.43	3
2013-04-08	Orlando City SC	L 1-3	1492.43	1618.75	35.53%	25.12%	39.34%	-18.18	3
2013-04-15	Los Angeles Blues	L 1-3	1474.25	1495.76	50.24%	23.68%	26.08%	-23.78	3
2013-04-29	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 3-1	1450.47	1503.21	45.97%	24.50%	29.53%	+15.67	6
2013-05-04	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 1-1	1466.14	1387.26	62.93%	19.44%	17.62%	-3.00	7
2013-05-10	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 1-2	1463.14	1394.53	31.45%	24.80%	43.75%	-9.54	7
2013-05-12	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	L 3-4	1453.60	1439.56	25.32%	23.44%	51.24%	-7.30	7
2013-05-24	Charlotte Eagles	T 2-2	1446.30	1558.36	37.55%	25.15%	37.30%	-0.01	8
2013-06-01	@ Richmond Kickers	L 0-1	1446.29	1588.25	13.81%	16.18%	70.01%	-4.34	8
2013-06-02	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-2	1441.95	1437.09	24.42%	23.12%	52.46%	-7.63	8
2013-06-08	@ Orlando City SC	L 0-2	1434.32	1671.69	9.38%	11.44%	79.18%	-5.13	8
2013-06-10	@ VSI Tampa Bay FC	L 0-1	1429.19	1550.89	14.94%	17.24%	67.82%	-4.76	8
2013-06-22	Dayton Dutch Lions	T 0-0	1424.43	1464.15	47.77%	24.19%	28.04%	-1.39	9
2013-06-29	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 1-2	1423.04	1609.93	11.55%	13.87%	74.58%	-3.30	9
2013-06-30	@ Rochester Rhinos	T 0-0	1419.74	1460.49	20.42%	21.27%	58.31%	+2.78	10
2013-07-07	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 1-0	1422.52	1253.89	72.77%	14.80%	12.43%	+3.82	13
2013-07-12	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 1-0	1426.34	1250.07	73.54%	14.41%	12.06%	+3.69	16
2013-07-20	Richmond Kickers	T 2-2	1430.03	1650.24	24.50%	23.15%	52.35%	+1.33	17
2013-07-25	@ Charleston Battery	L 1-5	1431.36	1530.66	16.29%	18.40%	65.31%	-15.72	17
2013-07-28	@ Charlotte Eagles	W 4-0	1415.64	1524.42	15.71%	17.91%	66.38%	+64.78	20
2013-08-01	Harrisburg City Islanders	L 1-3	1480.42	1594.39	37.28%	25.15%	37.57%	-18.85	20
2013-08-11	Charleston Battery	L 0-1	1461.57	1571.96	37.79%	25.15%	37.06%	-11.67	20
2013-08-17	Rochester Rhinos	L 3-4	1449.90	1433.94	55.17%	22.33%	22.50%	-13.69	20
2013-04-07	@ Richmond Kickers	T 0-0	1418.37	1514.35	16.50%	18.57%	64.93%	+3.60	1
2013-04-14	Harrisburg City Islanders	L 1-2	1421.97	1526.63	38.61%	25.14%	36.24%	-11.18	1
2013-04-21	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	L 1-2	1410.79	1440.71	21.30%	21.75%	56.95%	-6.67	1
2013-04-27	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 0-2	1404.12	1539.90	14.14%	16.50%	69.35%	-8.42	1
2013-04-28	@ Charleston Battery	L 0-2	1395.70	1530.97	14.17%	16.53%	69.30%	-8.44	1
2013-05-04	@ Phoenix FC	T 1-1	1387.26	1466.14	17.62%	19.44%	62.93%	+3.00	2
2013-05-06	@ Los Angeles Blues	T 0-0	1390.26	1539.63	13.41%	15.79%	70.79%	+4.27	3
2013-05-10	Phoenix FC	W 2-1	1394.53	1463.14	43.75%	24.80%	31.45%	+9.53	6
2013-05-19	Dayton Dutch Lions	T 2-2	1404.06	1446.86	47.34%	24.27%	28.39%	-0.89	7
2013-05-25	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-0	1403.17	1330.06	62.25%	19.73%	18.02%	+11.15	10
2013-06-02	Rochester Rhinos	W 3-0	1414.32	1448.75	48.49%	24.05%	27.46%	+24.66	13
2013-06-16	Charleston Battery	T 1-1	1438.98	1544.01	38.56%	25.14%	36.29%	-0.13	14
2013-06-22	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	W 4-3	1438.85	1627.11	11.49%	13.80%	74.71%	+17.18	17
2013-06-23	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 4-1	1456.03	1275.46	73.96%	14.19%	11.85%	+8.33	20
2013-07-05	Charlotte Eagles	L 2-3	1464.36	1509.94	46.96%	24.34%	28.70%	-12.34	20
2013-07-07	Los Angeles Blues	L 1-2	1452.02	1532.18	42.12%	24.96%	32.93%	-11.94	20
2013-07-18	Orlando City SC	T 0-0	1440.08	1649.47	25.57%	23.52%	50.91%	+1.81	21
2013-07-21	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 2-1	1441.89	1451.19	51.87%	23.28%	24.85%	+7.75	24
2013-08-03	@ VSI Tampa Bay FC	W 2-1	1449.64	1511.23	18.84%	20.29%	60.87%	+15.98	27
2013-08-04	@ Orlando City SC	W 1-0	1465.62	1657.91	11.30%	13.60%	75.10%	+19.76	30
2013-08-10	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 0-1	1485.38	1424.07	30.56%	24.67%	44.77%	-9.87	30
2013-08-11	VSI Tampa Bay FC	W 3-2	1475.51	1455.93	55.64%	22.18%	22.18%	+6.58	33
2013-08-15	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-4	1482.09	1466.98	25.43%	23.47%	51.10%	-19.40	33
2013-08-18	Richmond Kickers	T 1-1	1462.69	1666.30	26.16%	23.70%	50.14%	+1.52	34
2013-04-07	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 0-0	1514.35	1418.37	64.93%	18.57%	16.50%	-3.60	1
2013-04-14	Charleston Battery	W 4-1	1510.75	1535.30	49.83%	23.77%	26.40%	+20.08	4
2013-04-21	Rochester Rhinos	W 4-1	1530.83	1483.34	59.15%	20.96%	19.89%	+15.21	7
2013-05-04	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	W 2-0	1546.04	1487.54	30.22%	24.62%	45.17%	+25.23	10
2013-05-05	Charlotte Eagles	T 3-3	1571.27	1548.32	56.07%	22.04%	21.89%	-1.38	11
2013-05-12	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 4-1	1569.89	1336.47	78.84%	11.62%	9.53%	+6.41	14
2013-05-18	Los Angeles Blues	T 1-1	1576.30	1535.37	58.33%	21.26%	20.41%	-2.49	15
2013-05-25	Harrisburg City Islanders	W 2-0	1573.81	1564.37	54.33%	22.59%	23.08%	+14.44	18
2013-06-01	Phoenix FC	W 1-0	1588.25	1446.29	70.01%	16.18%	13.81%	+4.34	21
2013-06-09	Wilmington Hammerheads	T 1-1	1592.59	1437.65	71.37%	15.50%	13.12%	-3.87	22
2013-06-15	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 4-0	1588.72	1288.49	84.09%	8.80%	7.12%	+7.03	25
2013-06-30	@ Orlando City SC	W 2-0	1595.75	1679.15	17.32%	19.21%	63.47%	+33.01	28
2013-07-01	@ VSI Tampa Bay FC	T 0-0	1628.76	1507.17	38.67%	25.14%	36.19%	-0.17	29
2013-07-07	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	W 3-2	1628.59	1493.46	40.61%	25.06%	34.33%	+9.70	32
2013-07-13	@ Rochester Rhinos	T 1-1	1638.29	1445.42	48.68%	24.02%	27.30%	-1.35	33
2013-07-14	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	W 1-0	1636.94	1575.93	30.52%	24.66%	44.82%	+13.30	36
2013-07-20	@ Phoenix FC	T 2-2	1650.24	1430.03	52.35%	23.15%	24.50%	-1.34	37
2013-07-22	@ Los Angeles Blues	W 2-1	1648.90	1574.94	32.13%	24.88%	42.99%	+12.14	40
2013-07-29	VSI Tampa Bay FC	T 0-0	1661.04	1506.91	71.29%	15.55%	13.16%	-4.32	41
2013-08-03	@ Charlotte Eagles	W 1-0	1656.72	1459.64	49.25%	23.90%	26.85%	+8.83	44
2013-08-04	@ Charleston Battery	L 2-5	1665.55	1557.83	36.68%	25.15%	38.18%	-22.81	44
2013-08-11	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 5-2	1642.74	1468.51	73.33%	14.51%	12.15%	+7.44	47
2013-08-15	Orlando City SC	W 2-0	1650.18	1670.07	50.46%	23.63%	25.91%	+16.12	50
2013-08-18	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 1-1	1666.30	1462.69	50.14%	23.70%	26.16%	-1.52	51
2013-04-14	@ VSI Tampa Bay FC	L 0-3	1509.44	1506.99	24.19%	23.04%	52.78%	-21.96	0
2013-04-15	@ Orlando City SC	L 1-3	1487.48	1623.99	14.10%	16.46%	69.43%	-7.26	0
2013-04-20	@ Charlotte Eagles	T 0-0	1480.22	1543.33	18.73%	20.22%	61.05%	+3.12	1
2013-04-21	@ Richmond Kickers	L 1-4	1483.34	1530.83	19.89%	20.96%	59.15%	-15.20	1
2013-04-28	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 1-5	1468.14	1537.81	18.26%	19.90%	61.84%	-17.88	1
2013-05-05	Harrisburg City Islanders	L 0-1	1450.26	1540.89	40.62%	25.06%	34.31%	-12.33	1
2013-05-11	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	W 1-0	1437.93	1462.31	21.77%	21.98%	56.25%	+15.94	4
2013-05-19	Orlando City SC	L 0-1	1453.87	1655.97	26.32%	23.75%	49.93%	-8.68	4
2013-05-26	@ Charleston Battery	T 0-0	1445.19	1564.49	15.08%	17.37%	67.55%	+3.91	5
2013-06-01	Los Angeles Blues	T 2-2	1449.10	1535.16	41.28%	25.02%	33.70%	-0.35	6
2013-06-02	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 0-3	1448.75	1414.32	27.46%	24.05%	48.49%	-24.66	6
2013-06-15	VSI Tampa Bay FC	W 3-0	1424.09	1555.65	34.81%	25.09%	40.10%	+33.41	9
2013-06-16	Charleston Battery	T 1-1	1457.50	1544.15	41.19%	25.03%	33.78%	-0.45	10
2013-06-22	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-1	1457.05	1278.90	73.72%	14.31%	11.97%	+3.44	13
2013-06-30	Phoenix FC	T 0-0	1460.49	1419.74	58.31%	21.27%	20.42%	-2.78	14
2013-07-04	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	L 1-3	1457.71	1481.63	21.81%	22.00%	56.19%	-11.82	14
2013-07-07	Charlotte Eagles	T 2-2	1445.89	1522.28	42.65%	24.91%	32.44%	-0.47	15
2013-07-13	Richmond Kickers	T 1-1	1445.42	1638.29	27.30%	24.02%	48.68%	+1.35	16
2013-07-20	Wilmington Hammerheads	T 0-0	1446.77	1449.13	52.79%	23.03%	24.18%	-2.06	17
2013-07-28	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 1-0	1444.71	1235.39	76.70%	12.76%	10.54%	+3.14	20
2013-08-03	Dayton Dutch Lions	L 1-3	1447.85	1469.40	50.23%	23.68%	26.09%	-23.78	20
2013-08-10	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 1-0	1424.07	1485.38	44.77%	24.67%	30.56%	+9.87	23
2013-08-17	@ Phoenix FC	W 4-3	1433.94	1449.90	22.50%	22.33%	55.17%	+13.70	26
2013-08-18	@ Los Angeles Blues	L 1-2	1447.64	1548.57	16.19%	18.32%	65.49%	-4.94	26
2013-03-31	@ Phoenix FC	L 0-1	1500.00	1484.00	25.52%	23.50%	50.98%	-8.43	0
2013-04-03	@ Los Angeles Blues	W 1-0	1491.57	1498.23	23.33%	22.70%	53.97%	+15.42	3
2013-04-14	Rochester Rhinos	W 3-0	1506.99	1509.44	52.78%	23.04%	24.19%	+21.95	6
2013-04-22	Los Angeles Blues	W 3-2	1528.94	1515.08	54.90%	22.42%	22.68%	+6.74	9
2013-04-27	Dayton Dutch Lions	L 0-1	1535.68	1447.37	64.04%	18.97%	17.00%	-17.63	9
2013-05-04	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 3-1	1518.05	1360.64	71.63%	15.38%	12.99%	+6.59	12
2013-05-27	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 1-0	1524.64	1442.78	63.28%	19.29%	17.42%	+5.69	15
2013-06-08	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 8-0	1530.33	1311.38	77.57%	12.30%	10.13%	+20.56	18
2013-06-10	Phoenix FC	W 1-0	1550.89	1429.19	67.82%	17.24%	14.94%	+4.76	21
2013-06-15	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 0-3	1555.65	1424.09	40.10%	25.09%	34.81%	-33.41	21
2013-06-17	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	L 1-2	1522.24	1454.65	31.33%	24.78%	43.89%	-9.50	21
2013-06-22	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 0-1	1512.74	1499.62	25.23%	23.41%	51.36%	-8.34	21
2013-06-23	@ Charleston Battery	T 0-0	1504.40	1544.60	20.47%	21.29%	58.24%	+2.77	22
2013-07-01	Richmond Kickers	T 0-0	1507.17	1628.76	36.19%	25.14%	38.67%	+0.17	23
2013-07-14	Charleston Battery	W 4-2	1507.34	1536.78	49.17%	23.92%	26.92%	+12.92	26
2013-07-20	Harrisburg City Islanders	L 0-2	1520.26	1562.63	47.40%	24.26%	28.34%	-26.21	26
2013-07-27	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	W 2-1	1494.05	1443.44	29.28%	24.45%	46.26%	+12.86	29
2013-07-29	@ Richmond Kickers	T 0-0	1506.91	1661.04	13.16%	15.55%	71.29%	+4.32	30
2013-08-03	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 1-2	1511.23	1449.64	60.87%	20.29%	18.84%	-15.99	30
2013-08-05	Orlando City SC	L 0-3	1495.24	1638.16	33.30%	24.99%	41.71%	-28.98	30
2013-08-07	@ Orlando City SC	L 2-3	1466.26	1667.14	10.91%	13.17%	75.91%	-2.92	30
2013-08-11	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 1-3	1463.34	1595.62	14.34%	16.69%	68.98%	-7.41	30
2013-08-11	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 2-3	1455.93	1475.51	22.18%	22.18%	55.64%	-6.59	30
2013-08-17	Charlotte Eagles	T 3-3	1449.34	1480.98	48.87%	23.98%	27.15%	-0.85	31
2013-04-20	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-0	1526.31	1384.59	69.99%	16.19%	13.82%	+8.19	3
2013-04-27	@ Los Angeles Blues	L 0-4	1534.50	1508.34	26.57%	23.82%	49.61%	-31.29	3
2013-04-29	@ Phoenix FC	L 1-3	1503.21	1450.47	29.53%	24.50%	45.97%	-15.67	3
2013-05-04	Richmond Kickers	L 0-2	1487.54	1546.04	45.17%	24.62%	30.22%	-25.23	3
2013-05-11	Rochester Rhinos	L 0-1	1462.31	1437.93	56.25%	21.98%	21.77%	-15.93	3
2013-05-12	@ Charleston Battery	L 2-4	1446.38	1566.13	15.05%	17.34%	67.60%	-7.02	3
2013-05-19	Los Angeles Blues	W 2-1	1439.36	1537.85	39.50%	25.12%	35.38%	+10.46	6
2013-05-26	@ Orlando City SC	L 1-4	1449.82	1664.65	10.30%	12.50%	77.20%	-7.04	6
2013-05-27	@ VSI Tampa Bay FC	L 0-1	1442.78	1524.64	17.42%	19.29%	63.28%	-5.69	6
2013-06-02	Phoenix FC	W 2-1	1437.09	1441.95	52.46%	23.12%	24.42%	+7.63	9
2013-06-06	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 0-2	1444.72	1617.49	12.23%	14.58%	73.19%	-7.07	9
2013-06-09	@ Richmond Kickers	T 1-1	1437.65	1592.59	13.12%	15.50%	71.37%	+3.87	10
2013-06-23	Charlotte Eagles	T 0-0	1441.52	1507.96	44.05%	24.76%	31.18%	-0.89	11
2013-07-04	Orlando City SC	T 2-2	1440.63	1646.14	25.97%	23.64%	50.39%	+1.16	12
2013-07-07	Harrisburg City Islanders	W 2-1	1441.79	1613.23	29.74%	24.54%	45.73%	+12.74	15
2013-07-14	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 2-3	1454.53	1522.75	18.36%	19.97%	61.67%	-5.40	15
2013-07-20	@ Rochester Rhinos	T 0-0	1449.13	1446.77	24.18%	23.03%	52.79%	+2.06	16
2013-07-21	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 1-2	1451.19	1441.89	24.85%	23.28%	51.87%	-7.75	16
2013-07-27	VSI Tampa Bay FC	L 1-2	1443.44	1494.05	46.26%	24.45%	29.28%	-12.86	16
2013-08-03	Charleston Battery	W 2-1	1430.58	1569.56	33.82%	25.03%	41.15%	+11.74	19
2013-08-05	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	W 1-0	1442.32	1493.17	19.64%	20.80%	59.56%	+16.67	22
2013-08-10	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 2-1	1458.99	1476.51	50.78%	23.55%	25.67%	+7.99	25
2013-08-15	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 4-1	1466.98	1482.09	51.10%	23.47%	25.43%	+19.40	28
2013-08-18	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 4-1	1486.38	1216.38	81.85%	10.01%	8.14%	+5.32	31

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2013-08-24	Los Angeles Blues	W 2-1	1587.46	1553.51	69.97%	0.00%	30.03%	+6.56	1-0
2013-08-30	@ Orlando City SC	L 2-3	1594.02	1672.64	24.92%	0.00%	75.08%	-5.16	1-1
2013-08-24	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	W 3-1	1478.07	1582.55	22.24%	0.00%	77.76%	+29.41	1-0
2013-08-31	@ Richmond Kickers	W 2-1	1507.48	1668.34	17.13%	0.00%	82.87%	+18.09	2-0
2013-09-07	@ Orlando City SC	L 4-7	1525.57	1677.81	17.85%	0.00%	82.15%	-7.29	2-1
2013-08-24	@ Richmond Kickers	L 0-1	1481.56	1664.78	15.38%	0.00%	84.62%	-3.57	0-1
2013-08-24	Charlotte Eagles	L 1-3	1582.55	1478.07	77.76%	0.00%	22.24%	-29.41	0-1
2013-08-24	@ Charleston Battery	L 1-2	1553.51	1587.46	30.03%	0.00%	69.97%	-6.56	0-1
2013-08-24	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 5-0	1657.70	1464.21	85.37%	0.00%	14.63%	+14.94	1-0
2013-08-30	Charleston Battery	W 3-2	1672.64	1594.02	75.08%	0.00%	24.92%	+5.17	2-0
2013-09-07	Charlotte Eagles	W 7-4	1677.81	1525.57	82.15%	0.00%	17.85%	+7.29	3-0
2013-08-24	@ Orlando City SC	L 0-5	1464.21	1657.70	14.63%	0.00%	85.37%	-14.94	0-1
2013-08-24	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 1-0	1664.78	1481.56	84.62%	0.00%	15.38%	+3.56	1-0
2013-08-31	Charlotte Eagles	L 1-2	1668.34	1507.48	82.87%	0.00%	17.13%	-18.09	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2013-08-04	11.30%	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1465.62	1	@ Orlando City SC	1657.91	0
2	2013-06-22	11.49%	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1438.85	4	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	1627.11	3
3	2013-08-08	12.71%	Charlotte Eagles	1450.81	2	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	1613.75	1
4	2013-07-28	15.71%	Phoenix FC	1415.64	4	@ Charlotte Eagles	1524.42	0
5	2013-04-27	17.00%	Dayton Dutch Lions	1447.37	1	@ VSI Tampa Bay FC	1535.68	0
6	2013-08-31 *	17.13%	Charlotte Eagles	1507.48	2	@ Richmond Kickers	1668.34	1
7	2013-06-30	17.32%	Richmond Kickers	1595.75	2	@ Orlando City SC	1679.15	0
8	2013-06-24	18.20%	Dayton Dutch Lions	1465.54	1	@ Los Angeles Blues	1536.13	0
9	2013-08-03	18.84%	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1449.64	2	@ VSI Tampa Bay FC	1511.23	1
10	2013-07-11	19.22%	Los Angeles Blues	1544.12	4	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	1600.49	2
11	2013-08-05	19.64%	Wilmington Hammerheads	1442.32	1	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	1493.17	0
12	2013-05-11	21.77%	Rochester Rhinos	1437.93	1	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	1462.31	0
13	2013-08-24 *	22.24%	Charlotte Eagles	1478.07	3	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	1582.55	1
14	2013-05-02	22.47%	Charleston Battery	1539.41	2	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	1555.69	1
15	2013-08-17	22.50%	Rochester Rhinos	1433.94	4	@ Phoenix FC	1449.90	3
16	2013-06-01	22.97%	Harrisburg City Islanders	1549.92	2	@ Charleston Battery	1560.59	1
17	2013-04-03	23.33%	VSI Tampa Bay FC	1491.57	1	@ Los Angeles Blues	1498.23	0
18	2013-06-02	25.31%	Harrisburg City Islanders	1564.57	4	@ Charlotte Eagles	1550.61	0
19	2013-04-15	26.08%	Los Angeles Blues	1495.76	3	@ Phoenix FC	1474.25	1
20	2013-08-03	26.09%	Dayton Dutch Lions	1469.40	3	@ Rochester Rhinos	1447.85	1
21	2013-07-20	28.34%	Harrisburg City Islanders	1562.63	2	@ VSI Tampa Bay FC	1520.26	0
22	2013-07-05	28.70%	Charlotte Eagles	1509.94	3	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1464.36	2
23	2013-07-27	29.28%	VSI Tampa Bay FC	1494.05	2	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	1443.44	1
24	2013-07-07	29.74%	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	1441.79	2	Harrisburg City Islanders	1613.23	1
25	2013-05-04	30.22%	Richmond Kickers	1546.04	2	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	1487.54	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2013-07-28	64.78	Phoenix FC	4	1415.64	15.71%	@ Charlotte Eagles	0	1524.42	66.38%	17.91%
2	2013-06-02	52.93	Harrisburg City Islanders	4	1564.57	25.31%	@ Charlotte Eagles	0	1550.61	51.25%	23.44%
3	2013-06-15	33.41	@ Rochester Rhinos	3	1424.09	34.81%	VSI Tampa Bay FC	0	1555.65	40.10%	25.09%
4	2013-06-30	33.01	Richmond Kickers	2	1595.75	17.32%	@ Orlando City SC	0	1679.15	63.47%	19.21%
5	2013-04-27	31.29	@ Los Angeles Blues	4	1508.34	49.61%	Wilmington Hammerheads	0	1534.50	26.57%	23.82%
6	2013-08-24 *	29.41	Charlotte Eagles	3	1478.07	22.24%	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	1	1582.55	77.76%	0.00%
7	2013-08-05	28.98	Orlando City SC	3	1638.16	41.71%	@ VSI Tampa Bay FC	0	1495.24	33.30%	24.99%
8	2013-07-20	26.21	Harrisburg City Islanders	2	1562.63	28.34%	@ VSI Tampa Bay FC	0	1520.26	47.40%	24.26%
9	2013-05-04	25.23	Richmond Kickers	2	1546.04	30.22%	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	0	1487.54	45.17%	24.62%
10	2013-06-02	24.66	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	3	1414.32	48.49%	Rochester Rhinos	0	1448.75	27.46%	24.05%
11	2013-07-11	24.56	Los Angeles Blues	4	1544.12	19.22%	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	2	1600.49	60.23%	20.54%
12	2013-04-15	23.78	Los Angeles Blues	3	1495.76	26.08%	@ Phoenix FC	1	1474.25	50.24%	23.68%
13	2013-08-03	23.78	Dayton Dutch Lions	3	1469.40	26.09%	@ Rochester Rhinos	1	1447.85	50.23%	23.68%
14	2013-07-28	23.19	@ Charleston Battery	3	1546.37	50.82%	Los Angeles Blues	0	1563.59	25.64%	23.54%
15	2013-08-04	22.81	@ Charleston Battery	5	1557.83	38.18%	Richmond Kickers	2	1665.55	36.68%	25.15%
16	2013-04-14	21.96	@ VSI Tampa Bay FC	3	1506.99	52.78%	Rochester Rhinos	0	1509.44	24.19%	23.04%
17	2013-06-08	20.56	@ VSI Tampa Bay FC	8	1530.33	77.57%	Antigua Barracuda FC	0	1311.38	10.13%	12.30%
18	2013-08-18	20.49	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	3	1461.07	33.42%	Harrisburg City Islanders	1	1603.03	41.58%	25.00%
19	2013-04-14	20.08	@ Richmond Kickers	4	1510.75	49.83%	Charleston Battery	1	1535.30	26.40%	23.77%
20	2013-08-04	19.76	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1	1465.62	11.30%	@ Orlando City SC	0	1657.91	75.10%	13.60%
21	2013-08-15	19.40	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	4	1466.98	51.10%	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1	1482.09	25.43%	23.47%
22	2013-08-01	18.85	Harrisburg City Islanders	3	1594.39	37.57%	@ Phoenix FC	1	1480.42	37.28%	25.15%
23	2013-04-08	18.19	Orlando City SC	3	1618.75	39.34%	@ Phoenix FC	1	1492.43	35.53%	25.12%
24	2013-08-08	18.13	Charlotte Eagles	2	1450.81	12.71%	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	1	1613.75	72.20%	15.09%
25	2013-08-31 *	18.09	Charlotte Eagles	2	1507.48	17.13%	@ Richmond Kickers	1	1668.34	82.87%	0.00%