2012 USL Season

132 regular-season games

Final

Season Status

In Progress

Awaiting final results

Title Favorite

Orlando City SC

56.25% chance to win USL Championship

Biggest Overachiever

Orlando City SC

9.16 points above expected

57 points · 47.84 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

9.67 points below expected

17 points · 26.67 expected points

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual points minus the simulation's mean points - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Pt%	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Orlando City SC	17	1	6	57	.792	50	18	+32	47.84	+9.16
2	Rochester Rhinos	12	7	5	41	.569	27	23	+4	39.76	+1.24
3	Richmond Kickers	11	8	5	38	.528	31	27	+4	37.21	+0.79
4	Charleston Battery	12	10	2	38	.528	36	26	+10	36.79	+1.21
5	Harrisburg City Islanders	10	7	7	37	.514	34	29	+5	36.97	+0.03
6	Wilmington Hammerheads	10	7	7	37	.514	34	32	+2	34.60	+2.40
7	Charlotte Eagles	11	10	3	36	.500	34	26	+8	33.42	+2.58
8	Los Angeles Blues	9	12	3	30	.417	26	29	-3	33.02	-3.02
9	Dayton Dutch Lions	4	10	10	22	.306	20	29	-9	21.18	+0.82
10	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	4	15	5	17	.236	20	39	-19	26.67	-9.67
11	Antigua Barracuda FC	5	18	1	16	.222	16	50	-34	22.90	-6.90

Playoff Bracket

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Elo	Points	Avg. Pts.	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Orlando City SC	1719	57	47.84	+9.16	94.42%	21	37	44	48	52	58	70
Charlotte Eagles	1556	36	33.42	+2.58	68.60%	7	23	29	33	38	44	59
Harrisburg City Islanders	1552	37	36.97	+0.03	53.09%	10	26	33	37	41	48	66
Charleston Battery	1541	38	36.79	+1.21	60.58%	11	26	32	37	41	47	63
Richmond Kickers	1533	38	37.21	+0.79	58.00%	11	27	33	37	42	48	63
Wilmington Hammerheads	1532	37	34.60	+2.40	67.35%	10	24	30	35	39	45	61
Rochester Rhinos	1516	41	39.76	+1.24	60.65%	13	29	35	40	44	50	64
Los Angeles Blues	1469	30	33.02	-3.02	34.84%	8	23	29	33	37	44	62
Dayton Dutch Lions	1399	22	21.18	+0.82	59.96%	2	12	17	21	25	31	49
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1359	17	26.67	-9.67	6.63%	4	17	22	27	31	37	52
Antigua Barracuda FC	1325	16	22.90	-6.90	14.08%	1	13	19	23	27	33	49

Head-to-Head

Cells show the number of points earned against each opponent with the expected points from the simulation below. Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than one point.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	FC	Battery	Eagles	Lions	Islanders	Blues	SC	Riverhounds	Kickers	Rhinos	Hammerheads
Antigua Barracuda FC	—	3 (3.4 exp.)	3 (3.8 exp.)	0 (1.0 exp.)	1 (0.7 exp.)	3 (3.8 exp.)	0 (2.1 exp.)	3 (4.2 exp.)	3 (2.1 exp.)	0 (0.7 exp.)	0 (0.9 exp.)
Charleston Battery	9 (7.9 exp.)	—	3 (4.4 exp.)	4 (4.1 exp.)	3 (2.9 exp.)	3 (1.7 exp.)	0 (2.7 exp.)	6 (3.4 exp.)	3 (2.5 exp.)	3 (2.5 exp.)	4 (4.5 exp.)
Charlotte Eagles	6 (4.6 exp.)	6 (4.0 exp.)	—	2 (3.9 exp.)	3 (2.3 exp.)	3 (1.5 exp.)	0 (1.9 exp.)	6 (3.9 exp.)	6 (5.1 exp.)	0 (2.2 exp.)	4 (4.0 exp.)
Dayton Dutch Lions	3 (1.8 exp.)	1 (1.6 exp.)	2 (1.7 exp.)	—	4 (2.5 exp.)	0 (2.6 exp.)	2 (1.0 exp.)	4 (3.7 exp.)	1 (1.8 exp.)	2 (3.0 exp.)	3 (1.6 exp.)
Harrisburg City Islanders	1 (2.1 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)	3 (3.3 exp.)	4 (6.0 exp.)	—	7 (4.7 exp.)	0 (1.8 exp.)	7 (5.3 exp.)	2 (4.2 exp.)	9 (4.0 exp.)	1 (2.9 exp.)
Los Angeles Blues	9 (7.4 exp.)	0 (1.1 exp.)	0 (1.2 exp.)	9 (5.8 exp.)	1 (3.7 exp.)	—	1 (2.6 exp.)	6 (2.8 exp.)	0 (1.1 exp.)	0 (3.7 exp.)	4 (3.7 exp.)
Orlando City SC	9 (6.4 exp.)	9 (5.7 exp.)	6 (3.7 exp.)	2 (4.8 exp.)	6 (3.8 exp.)	7 (5.9 exp.)	—	4 (4.2 exp.)	4 (3.6 exp.)	6 (3.8 exp.)	4 (5.8 exp.)
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	6 (4.1 exp.)	0 (2.1 exp.)	0 (1.8 exp.)	4 (4.7 exp.)	1 (3.1 exp.)	0 (2.8 exp.)	1 (1.4 exp.)	—	1 (2.1 exp.)	1 (2.5 exp.)	3 (2.0 exp.)
Richmond Kickers	6 (6.4 exp.)	3 (3.0 exp.)	6 (6.1 exp.)	4 (3.9 exp.)	5 (4.2 exp.)	3 (1.7 exp.)	1 (2.0 exp.)	4 (3.5 exp.)	—	3 (2.5 exp.)	3 (3.9 exp.)
Rochester Rhinos	3 (2.1 exp.)	3 (3.1 exp.)	6 (3.4 exp.)	8 (8.4 exp.)	0 (4.4 exp.)	9 (4.7 exp.)	0 (1.8 exp.)	7 (6.0 exp.)	3 (3.0 exp.)	—	2 (3.0 exp.)
Wilmington Hammerheads	3 (1.9 exp.)	4 (3.8 exp.)	4 (4.3 exp.)	3 (4.0 exp.)	4 (2.6 exp.)	4 (4.6 exp.)	4 (2.6 exp.)	3 (3.6 exp.)	6 (4.5 exp.)	2 (2.6 exp.)	—

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's goals in the row and its opponent's goals in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.30%	11.74%	7.20%	3.03%	3.03%	—	30.30%
1	11.74%	9.85%	7.58%	3.03%	1.52%	—	33.71%
2	7.20%	7.58%	5.30%	1.89%	0.76%	—	22.73%
3	3.03%	3.03%	1.89%	—	—	—	7.95%
4	3.03%	1.52%	0.76%	—	—	—	5.30%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	30.30%	33.71%	22.73%	7.95%	5.30%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.24	1.24	+0.00
SD	1.13	1.13	1.76
CV	0.91	0.91	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	16.67%	20.83%	12.50%	8.33%	—	58.33%
1	4.17%	4.17%	4.17%	4.17%	8.33%	—	25.00%
2	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
3	—	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	4.17%	33.33%	29.17%	16.67%	16.67%	—	100%

Antigua Barracuda FC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.67	2.08	-1.42
SD	0.96	1.18	1.69
CV	1.44	0.56	—
Max	3	4	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.17%	12.50%	4.17%	4.17%	4.17%	—	29.17%
1	12.50%	—	16.67%	—	—	—	29.17%
2	4.17%	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	—	12.50%
3	8.33%	12.50%	—	—	—	—	20.83%
4	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	37.50%	29.17%	25.00%	4.17%	4.17%	—	100%

Charleston Battery — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.08	+0.42
SD	1.35	1.10	2.10
CV	0.90	1.02	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.17%	12.50%	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	25.00%
1	12.50%	4.17%	16.67%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	12.50%	4.17%	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	25.00%
3	4.17%	—	4.17%	—	—	—	8.33%
4	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	37.50%	25.00%	29.17%	8.33%	—	—	100%

Charlotte Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.42	1.08	+0.33
SD	1.21	1.02	1.74
CV	0.86	0.94	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.50%	20.83%	16.67%	—	4.17%	—	54.17%
1	4.17%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	20.83%
2	—	4.17%	12.50%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	4.17%	—	—	—	—	4.17%
4	4.17%	—	—	—	—	—	4.17%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	20.83%	45.83%	29.17%	—	4.17%	—	100%

Dayton Dutch Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.83	1.21	-0.38
SD	1.13	0.93	1.56
CV	1.36	0.77	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.50%	—	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	20.83%
1	8.33%	8.33%	12.50%	4.17%	—	—	33.33%
2	8.33%	12.50%	8.33%	—	4.17%	—	33.33%
3	4.17%	—	4.17%	—	—	—	8.33%
4	4.17%	—	—	—	—	—	4.17%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	37.50%	20.83%	29.17%	8.33%	4.17%	—	100%

Harrisburg City Islanders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.42	1.21	+0.21
SD	1.06	1.18	1.64
CV	0.75	0.98	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	25.00%	8.33%	—	4.17%	—	37.50%
1	16.67%	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	—	25.00%
2	8.33%	4.17%	8.33%	4.17%	4.17%	—	29.17%
3	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	33.33%	20.83%	4.17%	8.33%	—	100%

Los Angeles Blues — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.08	1.21	-0.12
SD	1.02	1.22	1.70
CV	0.94	1.01	—
Max	3	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.17%	—	—	—	—	—	4.17%
1	12.50%	16.67%	—	4.17%	—	—	33.33%
2	12.50%	16.67%	4.17%	—	—	—	33.33%
3	4.17%	—	4.17%	—	—	—	8.33%
4	12.50%	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	—	20.83%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	45.83%	37.50%	12.50%	4.17%	—	—	100%

Orlando City SC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.08	0.75	+1.33
SD	1.21	0.85	1.49
CV	0.58	1.13	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.17%	16.67%	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	45.83%
1	4.17%	16.67%	—	12.50%	—	—	33.33%
2	4.17%	4.17%	—	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	4.17%	—	—	—	—	4.17%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.50%	41.67%	16.67%	29.17%	—	—	100%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.83	1.62	-0.79
SD	1.01	1.06	1.50
CV	1.21	0.65	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.17%	8.33%	4.17%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	16.67%	12.50%	12.50%	—	4.17%	—	45.83%
2	8.33%	12.50%	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	29.17%
3	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	29.17%	41.67%	20.83%	4.17%	4.17%	—	100%

Richmond Kickers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.29	1.12	+0.17
SD	0.86	1.03	1.34
CV	0.66	0.92	—
Max	3	4	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.17%	12.50%	—	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
1	29.17%	12.50%	8.33%	—	—	—	50.00%
2	12.50%	—	4.17%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	4.17%	—	—	—	4.17%
4	—	4.17%	—	—	—	—	4.17%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	45.83%	29.17%	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	100%

Rochester Rhinos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.12	0.96	+0.17
SD	0.99	1.20	1.69
CV	0.88	1.25	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	4.17%	—	—	4.17%	—	16.67%
1	8.33%	12.50%	8.33%	8.33%	4.17%	—	41.67%
2	8.33%	12.50%	8.33%	—	—	—	29.17%
3	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	4.17%	—	—	—	4.17%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	29.17%	33.33%	20.83%	8.33%	8.33%	—	100%

Wilmington Hammerheads — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.42	1.33	+0.08
SD	1.02	1.24	1.69
CV	0.72	0.93	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 24

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.88	+11.7
Allowed	0.72	-11.9
Differential	0.91	+6.7

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Orlando City SC	57	47.84	+9.16
2	Charlotte Eagles	36	33.42	+2.58
3	Wilmington Hammerheads	37	34.60	+2.40
4	Rochester Rhinos	41	39.76	+1.24
5	Charleston Battery	38	36.79	+1.21

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	17	26.67	-9.67
2	Antigua Barracuda FC	16	22.90	-6.90
3	Los Angeles Blues	30	33.02	-3.02
4	Harrisburg City Islanders	37	36.97	+0.03
5	Richmond Kickers	38	37.21	+0.79

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak. Unbeaten counts W or T consecutively; Winless counts L or T consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Charlotte Eagles	6	Jun 16 – Jul 27	1 in 226
2	Rochester Rhinos	6	Apr 14 – May 12	1 in 130
3	Richmond Kickers	4	Jul 28 – Aug 17	1 in 12
4	Charleston Battery	3	Apr 17 – May 4	1 in 10
5	Orlando City SC	4	Jul 6 – Jul 19	1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Antigua Barracuda FC	8	Apr 28 – Jun 29	1 in 96
2	Charleston Battery	3	Jul 1 – Jul 7	1 in 47
3	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	6	Jul 4 – Jul 21	1 in 46
4	Los Angeles Blues	5	Jun 28 – Jul 8	1 in 30
5	Wilmington Hammerheads	2	Jun 22 – Jun 23	1 in 17

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Richmond Kickers	8	Apr 28 – Jun 9	1 in 66
2	Dayton Dutch Lions	4	Jul 29 – Aug 18	1 in 51
3	Orlando City SC	14	Jun 9 – Aug 17	1 in 26
4	Los Angeles Blues	5	May 4 – May 24	1 in 23
5	Charlotte Eagles	6	Jun 16 – Jul 27	1 in 18

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Rochester Rhinos	7	May 18 – Jun 17	1 in 187
2	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	9	Apr 27 – Jun 17	1 in 27
3	Dayton Dutch Lions	12	Apr 13 – Jun 17	1 in 24
4	Charlotte Eagles	5	Apr 7 – Apr 26	1 in 18
5	Richmond Kickers	5	Apr 21 – May 18	1 in 13

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Orlando City SC	62.08%	18.81%	8.92%	4.78%	2.70%	1.42%	0.78%	0.35%	0.12%	0.03%	<0.01%
Rochester Rhinos	11.79%	21.20%	17.79%	14.54%	11.54%	8.94%	6.45%	4.27%	2.36%	0.90%	0.22%
Richmond Kickers	6.37%	13.72%	15.01%	14.67%	13.54%	11.87%	10.14%	7.56%	4.51%	1.98%	0.63%
Harrisburg City Islanders	6.17%	13.29%	14.61%	14.22%	13.59%	12.15%	10.26%	8.03%	4.85%	2.15%	0.69%
Charleston Battery	5.92%	12.44%	14.26%	14.36%	13.90%	12.56%	10.53%	8.05%	4.95%	2.25%	0.78%
Wilmington Hammerheads	3.37%	8.28%	10.60%	12.27%	13.14%	13.71%	13.20%	11.76%	8.20%	4.03%	1.44%
Charlotte Eagles	2.10%	6.06%	8.82%	10.73%	12.50%	13.67%	14.41%	13.96%	10.07%	5.50%	2.19%
Los Angeles Blues	1.97%	5.16%	7.78%	10.16%	12.08%	13.96%	14.88%	14.37%	10.81%	6.17%	2.67%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0.18%	0.82%	1.61%	2.90%	4.39%	6.87%	10.52%	15.12%	22.62%	19.99%	14.97%
Antigua Barracuda FC	0.03%	0.15%	0.39%	0.89%	1.64%	3.07%	5.34%	9.54%	17.43%	29.70%	31.84%
Dayton Dutch Lions	0.01%	0.07%	0.22%	0.48%	0.98%	1.79%	3.50%	6.99%	14.09%	27.30%	44.57%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Orlando City SC	62.08%	18.81%	8.92%	4.78%	2.70%	1.42%	1.29%
Rochester Rhinos	11.79%	21.20%	17.79%	14.54%	11.54%	8.94%	14.19%
Richmond Kickers	6.37%	13.72%	15.01%	14.67%	13.54%	11.87%	24.82%
Harrisburg City Islanders	6.17%	13.29%	14.61%	14.22%	13.59%	12.15%	25.97%
Charleston Battery	5.92%	12.44%	14.26%	14.36%	13.90%	12.56%	26.57%
Wilmington Hammerheads	3.37%	8.28%	10.60%	12.27%	13.14%	13.71%	38.63%
Charlotte Eagles	2.10%	6.06%	8.82%	10.73%	12.50%	13.67%	46.12%
Los Angeles Blues	1.97%	5.16%	7.78%	10.16%	12.08%	13.96%	48.90%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0.18%	0.82%	1.61%	2.90%	4.39%	6.87%	83.23%
Antigua Barracuda FC	0.03%	0.15%	0.39%	0.89%	1.64%	3.07%	93.84%
Dayton Dutch Lions	0.01%	0.07%	0.22%	0.48%	0.98%	1.79%	96.44%

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 goal is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 goal at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals - average away goals per game. The gold line represents the expected home goals edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -0.8 · Lean Road: -0.8 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 0.8 · Home-Tilted: 0.8 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+14.39%

Fortress

46.97%20.45%32.58%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 50.36 Elo pts.

167 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

0500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.33 goals

Lean Home

-2+0.30+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.9

Few Contenders

124810

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual points total and their simulated average points total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 5.01 · As Expected: 5.01 to 6.88 · Elevated: 6.88 to 9.39 · High Variance: 9.39 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 1.45 · Close: 1.45 to 1.97 · Off Target: 1.97 to 2.57 · Well Off Target: 2.57 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 11 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 11 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.55 · As Expected: 0.55 to 1.32 · Several Outliers: 1.32 to 2.42 · Many Outliers: 2.42 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 0.99 · As Expected: 0.99 to 1.64 · More Than Expected: 1.64 to 2.63 · Far More Than Expected: 2.63 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.77 points

Subdued

06.2616

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.73

Pinpoint

01.714

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.45%

94.42%

Orlando City SC

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.55%

6.63%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 11

Minimal Outliers

01.111

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

0 of 6

Fewer Than Expected

01.36

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly points were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual point totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 1 goal or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.18

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.61

Stratified

01.003

Interquartile Edge

66%

Tilted

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

91%

No Contest

50%89%100%

Close Games

Expected

63%

Nail-Biters

0%60%100%

Blowouts

Expected

15%

Occasional

0%16%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 · Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 · Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 · Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.57

Predictable

00.592

Matchup Imbalance

0.33

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.60

Tighter Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.79

Strong Alignment

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

20%

Chalk Held

0%27%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

17%

Favorites Held

0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.07 · Within Noise: 0.07 to 0.14 · Above Noise: 0.14 to 0.28 · Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.

Probability calibration

0.11

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.61

Underconfident

0.2009091.001.79909

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.106

Within Noise

00.1410.4

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual points, simulated final points, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Conference Finals	Advanced to USL Championship	Won USL Championship
Orlando City SC	94.95%	94.95%	73.52%	56.25%
Rochester Rhinos	59.47%	59.47%	25.51%	8.28%
Harrisburg City Islanders	54.57%	49.08%	22.06%	8.12%
Charleston Battery	55.07%	47.53%	20.54%	7.38%
Richmond Kickers	55.09%	48.43%	20.52%	7.23%
Charlotte Eagles	45.71%	32.26%	13.68%	5.21%
Wilmington Hammerheads	49.72%	36.56%	14.91%	5.12%
Los Angeles Blues	43.98%	24.40%	7.83%	2.16%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	15.78%	4.86%	0.92%	0.18%
Dayton Dutch Lions	3.48%	1.08%	0.25%	0.06%
Antigua Barracuda FC	5.97%	1.38%	0.25%	0.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Antigua Barracuda FC	Charleston Battery	Charlotte Eagles	Dayton Dutch Lions	Harrisburg City Islanders	Los Angeles Blues	Orlando City SC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Richmond Kickers	Rochester Rhinos	Wilmington Hammerheads
Antigua Barracuda FC		20.0%0.83%	20.0%0.58%	50.0%0.03%	19.8%0.92%	26.2%0.46%	7.4%0.42%	41.0%0.13%	20.5%0.85%	19.2%0.99%	19.1%0.76%
Charleston Battery	80.0%0.83%		49.5%7.56%	73.9%0.50%	49.2%8.95%	61.7%6.92%	23.0%2.38%	75.8%2.35%	51.4%8.95%	52.9%8.40%	53.0%8.22%
Charlotte Eagles	80.0%0.58%	50.5%7.56%		72.6%0.34%	48.5%7.25%	62.9%5.26%	25.3%2.37%	78.8%1.69%	51.5%7.55%	52.6%7.02%	52.8%6.10%
Dayton Dutch Lions	50.0%0.03%	26.1%0.50%	27.4%0.34%		25.1%0.51%	36.6%0.30%	11.0%0.20%	56.1%0.07%	29.5%0.52%	29.8%0.58%	32.0%0.43%
Harrisburg City Islanders	80.2%0.92%	50.8%8.95%	51.5%7.25%	74.9%0.51%		62.4%7.00%	24.6%2.40%	76.6%2.27%	52.6%8.99%	55.5%8.38%	52.5%7.89%
Los Angeles Blues	73.8%0.46%	38.3%6.92%	37.1%5.26%	63.4%0.30%	37.6%7.00%		16.2%2.40%	69.0%1.42%	39.0%7.19%	41.2%7.14%	40.8%5.91%
Orlando City SC	92.6%0.42%	77.0%2.38%	74.7%2.37%	89.0%0.20%	75.4%2.40%	83.8%2.40%		90.3%0.95%	77.7%2.33%	79.4%1.91%	76.5%2.46%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	59.0%0.13%	24.2%2.35%	21.2%1.69%	43.9%0.07%	23.4%2.27%	31.0%1.42%	9.7%0.95%		25.1%2.44%	25.9%2.59%	25.9%1.87%
Richmond Kickers	79.5%0.85%	48.6%8.95%	48.5%7.55%	70.5%0.52%	47.4%8.99%	61.0%7.19%	22.3%2.33%	74.9%2.44%		51.0%8.00%	50.8%8.28%
Rochester Rhinos	80.8%0.99%	47.1%8.40%	47.4%7.02%	70.2%0.58%	44.5%8.38%	58.8%7.14%	20.6%1.91%	74.1%2.59%	49.0%8.00%		48.9%7.80%
Wilmington Hammerheads	80.9%0.76%	47.0%8.22%	47.2%6.10%	68.0%0.43%	47.5%7.89%	59.2%5.91%	23.5%2.46%	74.1%1.87%	49.2%8.28%	51.1%7.80%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Antigua Barracuda FC	Charleston Battery	Charlotte Eagles	Dayton Dutch Lions	Harrisburg City Islanders	Los Angeles Blues	Orlando City SC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Richmond Kickers	Rochester Rhinos	Wilmington Hammerheads
Antigua Barracuda FC		18.2%0.13%	25.7%0.07%	0.0%<0.01%	14.6%0.14%	24.3%0.04%	10.5%0.52%	81.8%0.01%	22.4%0.13%	26.4%0.24%	23.9%0.09%
Charleston Battery	81.8%0.13%		48.8%3.44%	74.0%0.10%	47.8%6.49%	59.8%2.76%	24.0%14.96%	77.6%0.50%	51.7%6.26%	51.7%8.74%	52.7%4.16%
Charlotte Eagles	74.3%0.07%	51.2%3.44%		70.5%0.04%	48.5%3.78%	61.2%1.50%	24.6%11.59%	73.8%0.26%	51.9%3.52%	52.2%5.67%	52.6%2.37%
Dayton Dutch Lions	100.0%<0.01%	26.0%0.10%	29.5%0.04%		26.5%0.10%	36.1%0.04%	11.6%0.45%	54.5%0.01%	31.0%0.12%	32.7%0.16%	34.3%0.07%
Harrisburg City Islanders	85.4%0.14%	52.2%6.49%	51.5%3.78%	73.5%0.10%		61.8%2.71%	25.1%15.10%	78.8%0.49%	51.7%6.54%	53.2%9.24%	53.1%4.49%
Los Angeles Blues	75.7%0.04%	40.2%2.76%	38.8%1.50%	63.9%0.04%	38.2%2.71%		16.8%8.53%	68.3%0.18%	39.3%2.90%	40.8%3.98%	41.1%1.76%
Orlando City SC	89.5%0.52%	76.0%14.96%	75.4%11.59%	88.4%0.45%	74.9%15.10%	83.2%8.53%		91.6%1.73%	77.3%14.82%	78.1%14.87%	76.8%12.36%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	18.2%0.01%	22.4%0.50%	26.2%0.26%	45.5%0.01%	21.2%0.49%	31.7%0.18%	8.4%1.73%		26.4%0.53%	25.3%0.80%	25.1%0.34%
Richmond Kickers	77.6%0.13%	48.3%6.26%	48.1%3.52%	69.0%0.12%	48.3%6.54%	60.7%2.90%	22.7%14.82%	73.6%0.53%		50.8%9.23%	51.8%4.37%
Rochester Rhinos	73.6%0.24%	48.3%8.74%	47.8%5.67%	67.3%0.16%	46.8%9.24%	59.2%3.98%	21.9%14.87%	74.7%0.80%	49.2%9.23%		49.2%6.55%
Wilmington Hammerheads	76.1%0.09%	47.3%4.16%	47.4%2.37%	65.7%0.07%	46.9%4.49%	58.9%1.76%	23.2%12.36%	74.9%0.34%	48.2%4.37%	50.8%6.55%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Antigua Barracuda FC	Charleston Battery	Charlotte Eagles	Dayton Dutch Lions	Harrisburg City Islanders	Los Angeles Blues	Orlando City SC	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Richmond Kickers	Rochester Rhinos	Wilmington Hammerheads
Antigua Barracuda FC		14.3%0.02%	33.3%0.01%		37.0%0.03%	0.0%<0.01%	3.9%0.13%		16.7%0.02%	23.1%0.03%	27.3%0.01%
Charleston Battery	85.7%0.02%		48.2%1.08%	76.9%0.01%	49.2%1.91%	59.2%0.62%	24.6%11.86%	73.4%0.08%	50.6%1.71%	51.5%2.06%	52.5%1.20%
Charlotte Eagles	66.7%0.01%	51.8%1.08%		64.7%0.02%	51.8%1.27%	61.7%0.43%	25.4%7.45%	64.6%0.05%	52.0%1.09%	53.3%1.43%	52.3%0.86%
Dayton Dutch Lions		23.1%0.01%	35.3%0.02%		31.2%0.02%	60.0%<0.01%	15.9%0.14%		45.8%0.02%	38.9%0.02%	8.3%0.01%
Harrisburg City Islanders	63.0%0.03%	50.8%1.91%	48.2%1.27%	68.8%0.02%		61.4%0.64%	25.4%12.91%	70.7%0.06%	50.4%1.78%	54.8%2.04%	55.5%1.41%
Los Angeles Blues	100.0%<0.01%	40.8%0.62%	38.3%0.43%	40.0%<0.01%	38.6%0.64%		17.6%4.34%	50.0%0.02%	42.0%0.64%	40.1%0.74%	38.9%0.39%
Orlando City SC	96.1%0.13%	75.4%11.86%	74.6%7.45%	84.1%0.14%	74.6%12.91%	82.4%4.34%		89.0%0.54%	76.2%12.03%	77.6%15.72%	76.7%8.40%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds		26.6%0.08%	35.4%0.05%		29.3%0.06%	50.0%0.02%	11.0%0.54%		27.7%0.07%	33.3%0.06%	26.5%0.05%
Richmond Kickers	83.3%0.02%	49.4%1.71%	48.0%1.09%	54.2%0.02%	49.6%1.78%	58.0%0.64%	23.8%12.03%	72.3%0.07%		52.3%1.99%	53.6%1.17%
Rochester Rhinos	76.9%0.03%	48.5%2.06%	46.7%1.43%	61.1%0.02%	45.2%2.04%	59.9%0.74%	22.4%15.72%	66.7%0.06%	47.7%1.99%		49.3%1.43%
Wilmington Hammerheads	72.7%0.01%	47.5%1.20%	47.7%0.86%	91.7%0.01%	44.5%1.41%	61.1%0.39%	23.3%8.40%	73.5%0.05%	46.4%1.17%	50.7%1.43%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Conference Finals	Advanced to USL Championship	Won USL Championship
Orlando City SC	100.00%	78.30%	61.36%
Rochester Rhinos	100.00%	51.13%	13.58%
Charleston Battery	55.73%	26.83%	7.90%
Harrisburg City Islanders	44.27%	22.04%	6.50%
Richmond Kickers	57.34%	12.30%	6.17%
Wilmington Hammerheads	42.66%	9.40%	4.49%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Charleston Battery	Harrisburg City Islanders	Richmond Kickers	Wilmington Hammerheads
Charleston Battery		55.7%100.00%
Harrisburg City Islanders	44.3%100.00%
Richmond Kickers				57.3%100.00%
Wilmington Hammerheads			42.7%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Charleston Battery	Harrisburg City Islanders	Orlando City SC	Richmond Kickers	Rochester Rhinos	Wilmington Hammerheads
Charleston Battery					48.1%55.73%
Harrisburg City Islanders					49.8%44.27%
Orlando City SC				78.5%57.34%		78.0%42.66%
Richmond Kickers			21.5%57.34%
Rochester Rhinos	51.9%55.73%	50.2%44.27%
Wilmington Hammerheads			22.0%42.66%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Charleston Battery	Harrisburg City Islanders	Orlando City SC	Richmond Kickers	Rochester Rhinos	Wilmington Hammerheads
Charleston Battery			23.1%21.08%	49.4%3.26%		56.8%2.48%
Harrisburg City Islanders			24.7%17.16%	44.1%2.73%		49.0%2.15%
Orlando City SC	76.9%21.08%	75.3%17.16%			80.5%40.05%
Richmond Kickers	50.6%3.26%	55.9%2.73%			47.4%6.32%
Rochester Rhinos			19.5%40.05%	52.6%6.32%		51.2%4.76%
Wilmington Hammerheads	43.2%2.48%	51.0%2.15%			48.8%4.76%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Orlando City SC 61.36% chance to win

Conference Finals

vs. Richmond Kickers

Matchup

57.52%

Win Prob

78.54%

→

USL Championship

vs. Rochester Rhinos

Matchup

52.53%

Win Prob

80.47%

Rochester Rhinos 13.58% chance to win

Conference Finals

vs. Charleston Battery

Matchup

56.52%

Win Prob

51.86%

→

USL Championship

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

57.58%

Win Prob

19.53%

Charleston Battery 7.90% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Harrisburg City Islanders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

55.73%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Rochester Rhinos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

48.14%

→

USL Championship

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

61.70%

Win Prob

23.11%

Harrisburg City Islanders 6.50% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Charleston Battery

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

44.27%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Rochester Rhinos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

49.78%

→

USL Championship

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

65.30%

Win Prob

24.73%

Richmond Kickers 6.17% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Wilmington Hammerheads

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

57.34%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

21.46%

→

USL Championship

vs. Rochester Rhinos

Matchup

48.55%

Win Prob

47.40%

Wilmington Hammerheads 4.49% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Richmond Kickers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.66%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

22.03%

→

USL Championship

vs. Rochester Rhinos

Matchup

51.69%

Win Prob

48.77%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
2012-04-06	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 0-1	1462.93	1459.67	46.78%	21.24%	31.97%	-9.79	0
2012-04-08	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 3-1	1453.14	1469.46	44.03%	21.51%	34.46%	+12.51	3
2012-04-26	Charlotte Eagles	W 3-2	1465.65	1462.23	46.81%	21.24%	31.95%	+6.42	6
2012-04-28	Charlotte Eagles	L 0-2	1472.07	1455.80	48.59%	21.00%	30.40%	-19.03	6
2012-05-02	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 0-3	1453.04	1523.15	24.64%	19.55%	55.81%	-15.50	6
2012-05-04	@ Charleston Battery	L 0-4	1437.54	1524.14	23.10%	18.97%	57.93%	-18.97	6
2012-05-11	Orlando City SC	L 0-1	1418.57	1633.88	20.70%	17.89%	61.41%	-4.74	6
2012-05-13	Orlando City SC	L 1-2	1413.83	1638.62	19.94%	17.51%	62.55%	-4.29	6
2012-06-15	@ Charleston Battery	L 0-3	1409.54	1551.68	18.57%	16.74%	64.69%	-11.54	6
2012-06-17	@ Orlando City SC	L 0-2	1398.00	1632.64	12.81%	12.61%	74.58%	-5.20	6
2012-06-29	Charleston Battery	L 0-2	1392.80	1573.58	23.70%	19.21%	57.10%	-10.26	6
2012-07-01	Charleston Battery	W 1-0	1382.54	1583.84	21.87%	18.45%	59.68%	+11.96	9
2012-07-04	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 1-4	1394.50	1543.41	18.09%	16.44%	65.47%	-9.45	9
2012-07-07	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	T 1-1	1385.05	1530.04	18.37%	16.62%	65.02%	+2.23	10
2012-07-12	Los Angeles Blues	L 0-3	1387.28	1452.30	37.08%	21.66%	41.26%	-22.26	10
2012-07-14	Los Angeles Blues	L 0-2	1365.02	1474.57	31.29%	21.15%	47.56%	-13.31	10
2012-07-27	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 1-4	1351.71	1378.14	29.22%	20.79%	49.99%	-15.33	10
2012-07-29	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	L 1-3	1336.38	1381.59	27.16%	20.31%	52.53%	-10.14	10
2012-08-03	@ Richmond Kickers	L 0-2	1326.24	1526.48	14.74%	14.15%	71.11%	-6.12	10
2012-08-04	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 0-4	1320.12	1530.67	14.14%	13.68%	72.18%	-11.06	10
2012-08-09	@ Los Angeles Blues	W 2-1	1309.06	1485.18	16.24%	15.24%	68.53%	+12.58	13
2012-08-11	@ Los Angeles Blues	L 0-1	1321.64	1472.59	17.94%	16.36%	65.70%	-4.05	13
2012-08-17	Richmond Kickers	L 0-1	1317.59	1539.87	20.14%	17.61%	62.25%	-4.60	13
2012-08-19	Richmond Kickers	W 2-1	1312.99	1544.47	19.43%	17.23%	63.35%	+11.83	16
2012-04-07	@ Richmond Kickers	W 2-1	1489.64	1532.06	27.46%	20.38%	52.16%	+10.09	3
2012-04-14	Richmond Kickers	L 1-2	1499.73	1521.97	43.18%	21.57%	35.25%	-8.65	3
2012-04-17	@ Charlotte Eagles	W 3-0	1491.08	1496.92	31.65%	21.20%	47.15%	+26.97	6
2012-04-27	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 1-0	1518.05	1467.56	53.24%	20.16%	26.61%	+6.09	9
2012-05-04	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 4-0	1524.14	1437.54	57.93%	18.97%	23.10%	+18.98	12
2012-05-12	Rochester Rhinos	L 0-1	1543.12	1568.34	42.76%	21.59%	35.65%	-9.10	12
2012-05-26	Los Angeles Blues	W 1-0	1534.02	1499.30	51.12%	20.59%	28.30%	+6.45	15
2012-05-31	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 3-1	1540.47	1429.45	47.77%	21.12%	31.11%	+11.47	18
2012-06-02	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	W 1-0	1551.94	1353.51	59.33%	18.56%	22.12%	+5.07	21
2012-06-09	@ Orlando City SC	L 1-2	1557.01	1627.31	24.62%	19.54%	55.84%	-5.33	21
2012-06-15	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 3-0	1551.68	1409.54	64.69%	16.74%	18.57%	+11.54	24
2012-06-23	Harrisburg City Islanders	W 3-1	1563.22	1523.87	51.74%	20.47%	27.79%	+10.36	27
2012-06-29	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-0	1573.58	1392.80	57.10%	19.21%	23.70%	+10.26	30
2012-07-01	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	L 0-1	1583.84	1382.54	59.68%	18.45%	21.87%	-11.96	30
2012-07-06	Charlotte Eagles	L 0-2	1571.88	1491.96	57.08%	19.21%	23.71%	-21.74	30
2012-07-07	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 0-1	1550.14	1513.70	37.18%	21.66%	41.15%	-8.14	30
2012-07-14	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 3-1	1542.00	1523.47	48.90%	20.96%	30.14%	+11.14	33
2012-07-19	Orlando City SC	L 1-2	1553.14	1689.95	28.15%	20.55%	51.30%	-6.05	33
2012-07-27	@ Orlando City SC	L 0-4	1547.09	1693.50	18.27%	16.55%	65.18%	-14.80	33
2012-08-03	Wilmington Hammerheads	T 2-2	1532.29	1523.80	47.52%	21.15%	31.33%	-0.54	34
2012-08-04	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-2	1531.75	1524.35	33.31%	21.40%	45.29%	-7.02	34
2012-08-08	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 0-3	1524.73	1531.70	31.52%	21.18%	47.30%	-19.44	34
2012-08-11	@ Rochester Rhinos	W 4-0	1505.29	1550.68	27.14%	20.30%	52.56%	+38.53	37
2012-08-18	Dayton Dutch Lions	T 0-0	1543.82	1396.28	65.31%	16.50%	18.18%	-2.53	38
2012-04-07	Orlando City SC	L 0-2	1513.88	1590.95	35.44%	21.58%	42.98%	-14.78	0
2012-04-13	Dayton Dutch Lions	T 0-0	1499.10	1383.27	61.56%	17.84%	20.60%	-2.18	1
2012-04-17	Charleston Battery	L 0-3	1496.92	1491.08	47.15%	21.20%	31.65%	-26.97	1
2012-04-20	Harrisburg City Islanders	L 1-2	1469.95	1532.44	37.43%	21.67%	40.90%	-7.72	1
2012-04-26	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	L 2-3	1462.23	1465.65	31.95%	21.24%	46.81%	-6.43	1
2012-04-28	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-0	1455.80	1472.07	30.40%	21.00%	48.59%	+19.04	4
2012-05-04	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	W 2-1	1474.84	1540.56	25.07%	19.69%	55.24%	+10.58	7
2012-05-05	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 0-1	1485.42	1554.93	24.70%	19.57%	55.74%	-5.67	7
2012-05-11	Rochester Rhinos	L 0-1	1479.75	1560.60	34.93%	21.55%	43.52%	-7.74	7
2012-05-19	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	T 1-1	1472.01	1529.74	25.86%	19.94%	54.20%	+1.32	8
2012-05-26	@ Orlando City SC	L 1-2	1473.33	1640.67	16.81%	15.63%	67.56%	-3.56	8
2012-06-09	@ Richmond Kickers	L 0-1	1469.77	1540.25	24.60%	19.53%	55.86%	-5.65	8
2012-06-16	Richmond Kickers	W 4-1	1464.12	1539.21	35.70%	21.60%	42.70%	+21.00	11
2012-06-28	Los Angeles Blues	W 3-2	1485.12	1501.06	44.08%	21.51%	34.41%	+6.84	14
2012-07-06	@ Charleston Battery	W 2-0	1491.96	1571.88	23.71%	19.21%	57.08%	+21.74	17
2012-07-07	Charleston Battery	W 1-0	1513.70	1550.14	41.15%	21.66%	37.18%	+8.14	20
2012-07-14	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 2-0	1521.84	1407.48	61.38%	17.90%	20.72%	+8.94	23
2012-07-27	Richmond Kickers	W 1-0	1530.78	1526.36	46.95%	21.22%	31.83%	+7.16	26
2012-07-28	@ Richmond Kickers	L 1-2	1537.94	1519.20	34.78%	21.54%	43.68%	-7.27	26
2012-08-04	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 4-0	1530.67	1320.12	72.18%	13.68%	14.14%	+11.06	29
2012-08-10	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 3-0	1541.73	1378.70	54.80%	19.80%	25.40%	+15.96	32
2012-08-11	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	T 2-2	1557.69	1391.73	55.18%	19.71%	25.11%	-1.05	33
2012-08-18	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	W 1-0	1556.64	1531.37	35.66%	21.59%	42.75%	+9.10	36
2012-08-19	Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-2	1565.74	1522.27	52.30%	20.36%	27.35%	-10.11	36
2012-04-13	@ Charlotte Eagles	T 0-0	1383.27	1499.10	20.60%	17.84%	61.56%	+2.18	1
2012-04-21	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 0-2	1385.45	1456.95	24.51%	19.50%	55.99%	-10.61	1
2012-04-28	Rochester Rhinos	L 0-1	1374.84	1549.35	24.29%	19.42%	56.29%	-5.57	1
2012-05-05	Richmond Kickers	T 1-1	1369.27	1518.53	26.81%	20.21%	52.98%	+1.21	2
2012-05-11	Los Angeles Blues	L 0-1	1370.48	1464.33	33.24%	21.40%	45.36%	-7.43	2
2012-05-18	@ Rochester Rhinos	T 1-1	1363.05	1577.44	13.92%	13.51%	72.57%	+2.82	3
2012-05-19	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 0-4	1365.87	1528.29	17.14%	15.85%	67.01%	-13.79	3
2012-05-26	Rochester Rhinos	T 2-2	1352.08	1566.58	20.76%	17.93%	61.31%	+1.43	4
2012-06-02	Charleston Battery	L 0-1	1353.51	1551.94	22.12%	18.56%	59.33%	-5.07	4
2012-06-09	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 1-1	1348.44	1417.99	36.46%	21.64%	41.91%	+0.24	5
2012-06-15	@ Los Angeles Blues	L 0-1	1348.68	1492.85	18.43%	16.65%	64.92%	-4.18	5
2012-06-17	@ Los Angeles Blues	L 0-1	1344.50	1497.03	17.83%	16.29%	65.88%	-4.02	5
2012-06-23	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 4-0	1340.48	1549.54	21.21%	18.15%	60.64%	+43.34	8
2012-06-29	Orlando City SC	T 2-2	1383.82	1651.59	16.83%	15.64%	67.53%	+1.82	9
2012-07-04	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 1-0	1385.64	1430.75	39.91%	21.69%	38.40%	+8.36	12
2012-07-07	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 0-2	1394.00	1552.86	17.39%	16.01%	66.61%	-7.39	12
2012-07-13	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	T 0-0	1386.61	1527.81	18.64%	16.78%	64.58%	+2.46	13
2012-07-18	Harrisburg City Islanders	W 2-1	1389.07	1525.35	28.20%	20.56%	51.23%	+9.94	16
2012-07-20	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 0-2	1399.01	1512.32	20.80%	17.95%	61.25%	-8.98	16
2012-07-21	@ Richmond Kickers	L 0-2	1390.03	1517.92	19.65%	17.35%	63.01%	-8.44	16
2012-07-29	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 3-1	1381.59	1336.38	52.53%	20.31%	27.16%	+10.14	19
2012-08-11	Charlotte Eagles	T 2-2	1391.73	1557.69	25.11%	19.71%	55.18%	+1.05	20
2012-08-17	@ Orlando City SC	T 1-1	1392.78	1722.54	8.50%	8.74%	82.77%	+3.50	21
2012-08-18	@ Charleston Battery	T 0-0	1396.28	1543.82	18.18%	16.50%	65.31%	+2.52	22
2012-04-20	@ Charlotte Eagles	W 2-1	1532.44	1469.95	40.90%	21.67%	37.43%	+7.73	3
2012-04-21	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	T 0-0	1540.17	1517.57	35.30%	21.57%	43.13%	+0.39	4
2012-05-04	Charlotte Eagles	L 1-2	1540.56	1474.84	55.24%	19.69%	25.07%	-10.58	4
2012-05-12	@ Richmond Kickers	T 2-2	1529.98	1517.31	33.99%	21.47%	44.54%	+0.35	5
2012-05-16	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 0-0	1530.33	1426.94	60.03%	18.34%	21.63%	-2.04	6
2012-05-19	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 4-0	1528.29	1365.87	67.01%	15.85%	17.14%	+13.79	9
2012-05-25	Rochester Rhinos	W 1-0	1542.08	1574.63	41.71%	21.64%	36.65%	+8.06	12
2012-06-01	Richmond Kickers	T 1-1	1550.14	1528.82	49.29%	20.90%	29.81%	-0.90	13
2012-06-09	Wilmington Hammerheads	L 0-2	1549.24	1533.89	48.47%	21.02%	30.51%	-18.99	13
2012-06-15	Rochester Rhinos	W 2-1	1530.25	1553.70	43.01%	21.58%	35.41%	+7.38	16
2012-06-22	@ Orlando City SC	L 0-3	1537.63	1637.84	21.90%	18.46%	59.64%	-13.76	16
2012-06-23	@ Charleston Battery	L 1-3	1523.87	1563.22	27.79%	20.47%	51.74%	-10.35	16
2012-06-30	@ Rochester Rhinos	W 2-1	1513.52	1553.45	27.73%	20.45%	51.82%	+10.03	19
2012-07-06	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 3-2	1523.55	1422.39	46.39%	21.29%	32.32%	+6.49	22
2012-07-07	Antigua Barracuda FC	T 1-1	1530.04	1385.05	65.02%	16.62%	18.37%	-2.23	23
2012-07-13	Dayton Dutch Lions	T 0-0	1527.81	1386.61	64.58%	16.78%	18.64%	-2.46	24
2012-07-18	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	L 1-2	1525.35	1389.07	51.23%	20.56%	28.20%	-9.94	24
2012-07-20	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 2-0	1515.41	1398.54	48.58%	21.01%	30.42%	+12.98	27
2012-07-28	Los Angeles Blues	W 2-0	1528.39	1482.06	52.68%	20.28%	27.04%	+11.66	30
2012-08-01	Orlando City SC	L 2-4	1540.05	1708.30	24.89%	19.63%	55.48%	-8.35	30
2012-08-08	Charleston Battery	W 3-0	1531.70	1524.73	47.30%	21.18%	31.52%	+19.45	33
2012-08-11	@ Richmond Kickers	L 1-2	1551.15	1532.59	34.76%	21.53%	43.71%	-7.28	33
2012-08-17	@ Los Angeles Blues	T 2-2	1543.87	1476.65	41.58%	21.65%	36.78%	-0.15	34
2012-08-19	@ Los Angeles Blues	W 1-0	1543.72	1476.80	41.53%	21.65%	36.82%	+8.08	37
2012-04-14	Rochester Rhinos	L 0-1	1479.44	1525.34	39.80%	21.69%	38.51%	-8.59	0
2012-04-20	Rochester Rhinos	L 0-2	1470.85	1533.93	37.35%	21.67%	40.98%	-15.42	0
2012-05-04	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 2-1	1455.43	1538.64	34.62%	21.52%	43.86%	+8.75	3
2012-05-06	Wilmington Hammerheads	T 2-2	1464.18	1529.89	36.99%	21.66%	41.36%	+0.15	4
2012-05-11	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	W 1-0	1464.33	1370.48	45.36%	21.40%	33.24%	+7.43	7
2012-05-12	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 3-0	1471.76	1452.24	34.89%	21.54%	43.57%	+25.30	10
2012-05-24	@ Orlando City SC	T 1-1	1497.06	1642.91	18.31%	16.58%	65.12%	+2.24	11
2012-05-26	@ Charleston Battery	L 0-1	1499.30	1534.02	28.30%	20.59%	51.12%	-6.45	11
2012-06-15	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 1-0	1492.85	1348.68	64.92%	16.65%	18.43%	+4.18	14
2012-06-17	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 1-0	1497.03	1344.50	65.88%	16.29%	17.83%	+4.03	17
2012-06-28	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 2-3	1501.06	1485.12	34.41%	21.51%	44.08%	-6.85	17
2012-06-30	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 2-4	1494.21	1506.20	30.91%	21.09%	48.00%	-10.19	17
2012-07-03	@ Richmond Kickers	L 0-1	1484.02	1510.12	29.26%	20.79%	49.94%	-6.65	17
2012-07-06	Orlando City SC	L 0-1	1477.37	1647.79	24.68%	19.56%	55.76%	-5.67	17
2012-07-08	Orlando City SC	L 0-4	1471.70	1653.45	23.61%	19.17%	57.22%	-19.40	17
2012-07-12	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 3-0	1452.30	1387.28	41.26%	21.66%	37.08%	+22.27	20
2012-07-14	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-0	1474.57	1365.02	47.56%	21.15%	31.29%	+13.30	23
2012-07-27	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 0-1	1487.87	1550.76	25.35%	19.78%	54.87%	-5.81	23
2012-07-28	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 0-2	1482.06	1528.39	27.04%	20.28%	52.68%	-11.67	23
2012-07-31	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 2-0	1470.39	1393.48	42.96%	21.58%	35.46%	+14.79	26
2012-08-09	Antigua Barracuda FC	L 1-2	1485.18	1309.06	68.53%	15.24%	16.24%	-12.59	26
2012-08-11	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 1-0	1472.59	1321.64	65.70%	16.36%	17.94%	+4.06	29
2012-08-17	Harrisburg City Islanders	T 2-2	1476.65	1543.87	36.78%	21.65%	41.58%	+0.15	30
2012-08-19	Harrisburg City Islanders	L 0-1	1476.80	1543.72	36.82%	21.65%	41.53%	-8.08	30
2012-04-07	@ Charlotte Eagles	W 2-0	1590.95	1513.88	42.98%	21.58%	35.44%	+14.78	3
2012-04-15	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 4-1	1605.73	1530.37	56.49%	19.37%	24.14%	+12.80	6
2012-04-21	@ Richmond Kickers	W 2-0	1618.53	1530.62	44.52%	21.47%	34.01%	+14.28	9
2012-04-28	Richmond Kickers	T 0-0	1632.81	1516.34	61.64%	17.82%	20.55%	-2.19	10
2012-05-05	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 3-2	1630.62	1455.50	68.42%	15.28%	16.30%	+3.26	13
2012-05-11	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 1-0	1633.88	1418.57	61.41%	17.89%	20.70%	+4.74	16
2012-05-13	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-1	1638.62	1413.83	62.55%	17.51%	19.94%	+4.29	19
2012-05-24	Los Angeles Blues	T 1-1	1642.91	1497.06	65.12%	16.58%	18.31%	-2.24	20
2012-05-26	Charlotte Eagles	W 2-1	1640.67	1473.33	67.56%	15.63%	16.81%	+3.55	23
2012-06-02	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-3	1644.22	1516.09	50.12%	20.76%	29.11%	-16.91	23
2012-06-09	Charleston Battery	W 2-1	1627.31	1557.01	55.84%	19.54%	24.62%	+5.33	26
2012-06-17	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-0	1632.64	1398.00	74.58%	12.61%	12.81%	+5.20	29
2012-06-22	Harrisburg City Islanders	W 3-0	1637.84	1537.63	59.64%	18.46%	21.90%	+13.75	32
2012-06-29	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	T 2-2	1651.59	1383.82	67.53%	15.64%	16.83%	-1.81	33
2012-06-30	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 1-1	1649.78	1428.76	62.10%	17.66%	20.24%	-1.99	34
2012-07-06	@ Los Angeles Blues	W 1-0	1647.79	1477.37	55.76%	19.56%	24.68%	+5.66	37
2012-07-08	@ Los Angeles Blues	W 4-0	1653.45	1471.70	57.22%	19.17%	23.61%	+19.40	40
2012-07-14	Rochester Rhinos	W 4-0	1672.85	1560.44	61.14%	17.98%	20.88%	+17.10	43
2012-07-19	@ Charleston Battery	W 2-1	1689.95	1553.14	51.30%	20.55%	28.15%	+6.05	46
2012-07-25	Wilmington Hammerheads	T 1-1	1696.00	1521.30	68.37%	15.30%	16.33%	-2.50	47
2012-07-27	Charleston Battery	W 4-0	1693.50	1547.09	65.18%	16.55%	18.27%	+14.80	50
2012-08-01	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	W 4-2	1708.30	1540.05	55.48%	19.63%	24.89%	+8.34	53
2012-08-03	@ Rochester Rhinos	W 1-0	1716.64	1556.58	54.41%	19.89%	25.70%	+5.90	56
2012-08-17	Dayton Dutch Lions	T 1-1	1722.54	1392.78	82.77%	8.74%	8.50%	-3.50	57
2012-04-06	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 1-0	1459.67	1462.93	31.97%	21.24%	46.78%	+9.79	3
2012-04-08	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	L 1-3	1469.46	1453.14	34.46%	21.51%	44.03%	-12.51	3
2012-04-21	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 2-0	1456.95	1385.45	55.99%	19.50%	24.51%	+10.61	6
2012-04-27	@ Charleston Battery	L 0-1	1467.56	1518.05	26.61%	20.16%	53.24%	-6.09	6
2012-04-28	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 0-1	1461.47	1517.18	26.07%	20.00%	53.93%	-5.97	6
2012-05-05	@ Orlando City SC	L 2-3	1455.50	1630.62	16.30%	15.28%	68.42%	-3.26	6
2012-05-12	Los Angeles Blues	L 0-3	1452.24	1471.76	43.57%	21.54%	34.89%	-25.30	6
2012-05-16	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	T 0-0	1426.94	1530.33	21.63%	18.34%	60.03%	+2.04	7
2012-05-18	Richmond Kickers	T 1-1	1428.98	1516.96	34.00%	21.47%	44.53%	+0.47	8
2012-05-31	Charleston Battery	L 1-3	1429.45	1540.47	31.11%	21.12%	47.77%	-11.46	8
2012-06-09	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	T 1-1	1417.99	1348.44	41.91%	21.64%	36.46%	-0.25	9
2012-06-17	Rochester Rhinos	T 1-1	1417.74	1546.32	29.06%	20.75%	50.18%	+0.97	10
2012-06-22	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 2-1	1418.71	1559.58	27.70%	20.45%	51.85%	+10.05	13
2012-06-30	Orlando City SC	T 1-1	1428.76	1649.78	20.24%	17.66%	62.10%	+1.99	14
2012-07-04	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	L 0-1	1430.75	1385.64	38.40%	21.69%	39.91%	-8.36	14
2012-07-06	Harrisburg City Islanders	L 2-3	1422.39	1523.55	32.32%	21.29%	46.39%	-6.49	14
2012-07-13	@ Richmond Kickers	L 1-3	1415.90	1509.49	22.47%	18.71%	58.81%	-8.42	14
2012-07-14	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 0-2	1407.48	1521.84	20.72%	17.90%	61.38%	-8.94	14
2012-07-20	Harrisburg City Islanders	L 0-2	1398.54	1515.41	30.42%	21.01%	48.58%	-12.98	14
2012-07-21	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 0-2	1385.56	1543.34	17.46%	16.05%	66.48%	-7.42	14
2012-07-27	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 4-1	1378.14	1351.71	49.99%	20.79%	29.22%	+15.34	17
2012-07-31	Los Angeles Blues	L 0-2	1393.48	1470.39	35.46%	21.58%	42.96%	-14.78	17
2012-08-10	Charlotte Eagles	L 0-3	1378.70	1541.73	25.40%	19.80%	54.80%	-15.96	17
2012-08-18	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 0-1	1362.74	1512.15	18.05%	16.42%	65.53%	-4.09	17
2012-04-07	Charleston Battery	L 1-2	1532.06	1489.64	52.16%	20.38%	27.46%	-10.09	0
2012-04-14	@ Charleston Battery	W 2-1	1521.97	1499.73	35.25%	21.57%	43.18%	+8.65	3
2012-04-21	Orlando City SC	L 0-2	1530.62	1618.53	34.01%	21.47%	44.52%	-14.28	3
2012-04-28	@ Orlando City SC	T 0-0	1516.34	1632.81	20.55%	17.82%	61.64%	+2.19	4
2012-05-05	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	T 1-1	1518.53	1369.27	52.98%	20.21%	26.81%	-1.22	5
2012-05-12	Harrisburg City Islanders	T 2-2	1517.31	1529.98	44.54%	21.47%	33.99%	-0.35	6
2012-05-18	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 1-1	1516.96	1428.98	44.53%	21.47%	34.00%	-0.48	7
2012-05-26	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 3-1	1516.48	1528.42	44.65%	21.46%	33.89%	+12.34	10
2012-06-01	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	T 1-1	1528.82	1550.14	29.81%	20.90%	49.29%	+0.89	11
2012-06-02	@ Rochester Rhinos	W 1-0	1529.71	1565.14	28.22%	20.57%	51.21%	+10.54	14
2012-06-09	Charlotte Eagles	W 1-0	1540.25	1469.77	55.86%	19.53%	24.60%	+5.65	17
2012-06-15	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-2	1545.90	1552.89	31.51%	21.18%	47.31%	-6.69	17
2012-06-16	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 1-4	1539.21	1464.12	42.70%	21.60%	35.70%	-21.00	17
2012-06-23	Rochester Rhinos	L 2-3	1518.21	1545.35	42.49%	21.61%	35.91%	-8.09	17
2012-07-03	Los Angeles Blues	W 1-0	1510.12	1484.02	49.94%	20.79%	29.26%	+6.64	20
2012-07-07	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 0-1	1516.76	1516.39	32.42%	21.30%	46.28%	-7.27	20
2012-07-13	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 3-1	1509.49	1415.90	58.81%	18.71%	22.47%	+8.43	23
2012-07-21	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 2-0	1517.92	1390.03	63.01%	17.35%	19.65%	+8.44	26
2012-07-27	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 0-1	1526.36	1530.78	31.83%	21.22%	46.95%	-7.16	26
2012-07-28	Charlotte Eagles	W 2-1	1519.20	1537.94	43.68%	21.54%	34.78%	+7.28	29
2012-08-03	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-0	1526.48	1326.24	71.11%	14.15%	14.74%	+6.11	32
2012-08-11	Harrisburg City Islanders	W 2-1	1532.59	1551.15	43.71%	21.53%	34.76%	+7.28	35
2012-08-17	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 1-0	1539.87	1317.59	62.25%	17.61%	20.14%	+4.60	38
2012-08-19	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	L 1-2	1544.47	1312.99	63.35%	17.23%	19.43%	-11.84	38
2012-04-14	@ Los Angeles Blues	W 1-0	1525.34	1479.44	38.51%	21.69%	39.80%	+8.59	3
2012-04-20	@ Los Angeles Blues	W 2-0	1533.93	1470.85	40.98%	21.67%	37.35%	+15.42	6
2012-04-28	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	W 1-0	1549.35	1374.84	56.29%	19.42%	24.29%	+5.58	9
2012-05-05	Charlotte Eagles	W 1-0	1554.93	1485.42	55.74%	19.57%	24.70%	+5.67	12
2012-05-11	@ Charlotte Eagles	W 1-0	1560.60	1479.75	43.52%	21.55%	34.93%	+7.74	15
2012-05-12	@ Charleston Battery	W 1-0	1568.34	1543.12	35.65%	21.59%	42.76%	+9.10	18
2012-05-18	Dayton Dutch Lions	T 1-1	1577.44	1363.05	72.57%	13.51%	13.92%	-2.81	19
2012-05-25	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 0-1	1574.63	1542.08	36.65%	21.64%	41.71%	-8.05	19
2012-05-26	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	T 2-2	1566.58	1352.08	61.31%	17.93%	20.76%	-1.44	20
2012-06-02	Richmond Kickers	L 0-1	1565.14	1529.71	51.21%	20.57%	28.22%	-10.54	20
2012-06-08	Wilmington Hammerheads	T 1-1	1554.60	1533.00	49.33%	20.89%	29.78%	-0.90	21
2012-06-15	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 1-2	1553.70	1530.25	35.41%	21.58%	43.01%	-7.38	21
2012-06-17	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 1-1	1546.32	1417.74	50.18%	20.75%	29.06%	-0.97	22
2012-06-23	@ Richmond Kickers	W 3-2	1545.35	1518.21	35.91%	21.61%	42.49%	+8.10	25
2012-06-30	Harrisburg City Islanders	L 1-2	1553.45	1513.52	51.82%	20.45%	27.73%	-10.04	25
2012-07-04	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 4-1	1543.41	1394.50	65.47%	16.44%	18.09%	+9.45	28
2012-07-07	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 2-0	1552.86	1394.00	66.61%	16.01%	17.39%	+7.38	31
2012-07-12	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	T 0-0	1560.24	1523.67	37.20%	21.66%	41.13%	+0.20	32
2012-07-14	@ Orlando City SC	L 0-4	1560.44	1672.85	20.88%	17.98%	61.14%	-17.10	32
2012-07-21	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 2-0	1543.34	1385.56	66.48%	16.05%	17.46%	+7.42	35
2012-07-27	Los Angeles Blues	W 1-0	1550.76	1487.87	54.87%	19.78%	25.35%	+5.82	38
2012-08-03	Orlando City SC	L 0-1	1556.58	1716.64	25.70%	19.89%	54.41%	-5.90	38
2012-08-11	Charleston Battery	L 0-4	1550.68	1505.29	52.56%	20.30%	27.14%	-38.53	38
2012-08-18	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 1-0	1512.15	1362.74	65.53%	16.42%	18.05%	+4.09	41
2012-04-15	@ Orlando City SC	L 1-4	1530.37	1605.73	24.14%	19.37%	56.49%	-12.80	0
2012-04-21	Harrisburg City Islanders	T 0-0	1517.57	1540.17	43.13%	21.57%	35.30%	-0.39	1
2012-04-28	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 1-0	1517.18	1461.47	53.93%	20.00%	26.07%	+5.97	4
2012-05-02	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 3-0	1523.15	1453.04	55.81%	19.55%	24.64%	+15.49	7
2012-05-04	@ Los Angeles Blues	L 1-2	1538.64	1455.43	43.86%	21.52%	34.62%	-8.75	7
2012-05-06	@ Los Angeles Blues	T 2-2	1529.89	1464.18	41.36%	21.66%	36.99%	-0.15	8
2012-05-19	Charlotte Eagles	T 1-1	1529.74	1472.01	54.20%	19.94%	25.86%	-1.32	9
2012-05-26	@ Richmond Kickers	L 1-3	1528.42	1516.48	33.89%	21.46%	44.65%	-12.33	9
2012-06-02	Orlando City SC	W 3-1	1516.09	1644.22	29.11%	20.76%	50.12%	+16.91	12
2012-06-08	@ Rochester Rhinos	T 1-1	1533.00	1554.60	29.78%	20.89%	49.33%	+0.89	13
2012-06-09	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	W 2-0	1533.89	1549.24	30.51%	21.02%	48.47%	+19.00	16
2012-06-15	Richmond Kickers	W 2-1	1552.89	1545.90	47.31%	21.18%	31.51%	+6.69	19
2012-06-22	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 1-2	1559.58	1418.71	51.85%	20.45%	27.70%	-10.04	19
2012-06-23	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	L 0-4	1549.54	1340.48	60.64%	18.15%	21.21%	-43.34	19
2012-06-30	Los Angeles Blues	W 4-2	1506.20	1494.21	48.00%	21.09%	30.91%	+10.19	22
2012-07-07	Richmond Kickers	W 1-0	1516.39	1516.76	46.28%	21.30%	32.42%	+7.28	25
2012-07-12	Rochester Rhinos	T 0-0	1523.67	1560.24	41.13%	21.66%	37.20%	-0.20	26
2012-07-14	@ Charleston Battery	L 1-3	1523.47	1542.00	30.14%	20.96%	48.90%	-11.15	26
2012-07-20	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 2-0	1512.32	1399.01	61.25%	17.95%	20.80%	+8.98	29
2012-07-25	@ Orlando City SC	T 1-1	1521.30	1696.00	16.33%	15.30%	68.37%	+2.50	30
2012-08-03	@ Charleston Battery	T 2-2	1523.80	1532.29	31.33%	21.15%	47.52%	+0.55	31
2012-08-04	Charleston Battery	W 2-1	1524.35	1531.75	45.29%	21.40%	33.31%	+7.02	34
2012-08-18	Charlotte Eagles	L 0-1	1531.37	1556.64	42.75%	21.59%	35.66%	-9.10	34
2012-08-19	@ Charlotte Eagles	W 2-1	1522.27	1565.74	27.35%	20.36%	52.30%	+10.11	37

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2012-08-25	Harrisburg City Islanders	W 2-1	1541.29	1551.80	55.71%	0.00%	44.29%	+7.09	1-0
2012-08-31	@ Rochester Rhinos	T 1-1	1548.38	1516.24	47.38%	0.00%	52.62%	+0.23	1-0
2012-09-08	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 1-0	1548.61	1552.75	56.61%	0.00%	43.39%	+7.36	2-0
2012-08-25	@ Charleston Battery	L 1-2	1551.80	1541.29	44.29%	0.00%	55.71%	-7.09	0-1
2012-08-31	Wilmington Hammerheads	L 3-4	1719.04	1541.07	78.82%	0.00%	21.18%	-11.68	0-1
2012-08-25	Wilmington Hammerheads	L 2-3	1532.63	1532.38	57.23%	0.00%	42.77%	-8.69	0-1
2012-08-31	Charleston Battery	T 1-1	1516.24	1548.38	52.62%	0.00%	47.38%	-0.23	0-0
2012-08-25	@ Richmond Kickers	W 3-2	1532.38	1532.63	42.77%	0.00%	57.23%	+8.69	1-0
2012-08-31	@ Orlando City SC	W 4-3	1541.07	1719.04	21.18%	0.00%	78.82%	+11.68	2-0
2012-09-08	@ Charleston Battery	L 0-1	1552.75	1548.61	43.39%	0.00%	56.61%	-7.37	2-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2012-08-09	16.24%	Antigua Barracuda FC	1309.06	2	@ Los Angeles Blues	1485.18	1
2	2012-08-19	19.43%	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	1312.99	2	Richmond Kickers	1544.47	1
3	2012-08-31 *	21.18%	Wilmington Hammerheads	1541.07	4	@ Orlando City SC	1719.04	3
4	2012-06-23	21.21%	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	1340.48	4	Wilmington Hammerheads	1549.54	0
5	2012-07-01	21.87%	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	1382.54	1	Charleston Battery	1583.84	0
6	2012-07-06	23.71%	Charlotte Eagles	1491.96	2	@ Charleston Battery	1571.88	0
7	2012-05-04	25.07%	Charlotte Eagles	1474.84	2	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	1540.56	1
8	2012-08-11	27.14%	Charleston Battery	1505.29	4	@ Rochester Rhinos	1550.68	0
9	2012-08-19	27.35%	Wilmington Hammerheads	1522.27	2	@ Charlotte Eagles	1565.74	1
10	2012-04-07	27.46%	Charleston Battery	1489.64	2	@ Richmond Kickers	1532.06	1
11	2012-06-22	27.70%	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1418.71	2	Wilmington Hammerheads	1559.58	1
12	2012-06-30	27.73%	Harrisburg City Islanders	1513.52	2	@ Rochester Rhinos	1553.45	1
13	2012-07-18	28.20%	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	1389.07	2	Harrisburg City Islanders	1525.35	1
14	2012-06-02	28.22%	Richmond Kickers	1529.71	1	@ Rochester Rhinos	1565.14	0
15	2012-06-02	29.11%	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	1516.09	3	Orlando City SC	1644.22	1
16	2012-04-28	30.40%	Charlotte Eagles	1455.80	2	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	1472.07	0
17	2012-06-09	30.51%	Wilmington Hammerheads	1533.89	2	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	1549.24	0
18	2012-04-17	31.65%	Charleston Battery	1491.08	3	@ Charlotte Eagles	1496.92	0
19	2012-04-06	31.97%	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1459.67	1	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	1462.93	0
20	2012-05-04	34.62%	@ Los Angeles Blues	1455.43	2	Wilmington Hammerheads	1538.64	1
21	2012-05-12	34.89%	Los Angeles Blues	1471.76	3	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1452.24	0
22	2012-04-14	35.25%	Richmond Kickers	1521.97	2	@ Charleston Battery	1499.73	1
23	2012-05-12	35.65%	Rochester Rhinos	1568.34	1	@ Charleston Battery	1543.12	0
24	2012-08-18	35.66%	Charlotte Eagles	1556.64	1	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	1531.37	0
25	2012-06-16	35.70%	@ Charlotte Eagles	1464.12	4	Richmond Kickers	1539.21	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2012-06-23	43.34	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	4	1340.48	21.21%	Wilmington Hammerheads	0	1549.54	60.64%	18.15%
2	2012-08-11	38.53	Charleston Battery	4	1505.29	27.14%	@ Rochester Rhinos	0	1550.68	52.56%	20.30%
3	2012-04-17	26.97	Charleston Battery	3	1491.08	31.65%	@ Charlotte Eagles	0	1496.92	47.15%	21.20%
4	2012-05-12	25.30	Los Angeles Blues	3	1471.76	34.89%	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0	1452.24	43.57%	21.54%
5	2012-07-12	22.27	Los Angeles Blues	3	1452.30	41.26%	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	0	1387.28	37.08%	21.66%
6	2012-07-06	21.74	Charlotte Eagles	2	1491.96	23.71%	@ Charleston Battery	0	1571.88	57.08%	19.21%
7	2012-06-16	21.00	@ Charlotte Eagles	4	1464.12	35.70%	Richmond Kickers	1	1539.21	42.70%	21.60%
8	2012-08-08	19.45	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	3	1531.70	47.30%	Charleston Battery	0	1524.73	31.52%	21.18%
9	2012-07-08	19.40	Orlando City SC	4	1653.45	57.22%	@ Los Angeles Blues	0	1471.70	23.61%	19.17%
10	2012-04-28	19.04	Charlotte Eagles	2	1455.80	30.40%	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	0	1472.07	48.59%	21.00%
11	2012-06-09	19.00	Wilmington Hammerheads	2	1533.89	30.51%	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	0	1549.24	48.47%	21.02%
12	2012-05-04	18.98	@ Charleston Battery	4	1524.14	57.93%	Antigua Barracuda FC	0	1437.54	23.10%	18.97%
13	2012-07-14	17.10	@ Orlando City SC	4	1672.85	61.14%	Rochester Rhinos	0	1560.44	20.88%	17.98%
14	2012-06-02	16.91	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	3	1516.09	29.11%	Orlando City SC	1	1644.22	50.12%	20.76%
15	2012-08-10	15.96	Charlotte Eagles	3	1541.73	54.80%	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0	1378.70	25.40%	19.80%
16	2012-05-02	15.50	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	3	1523.15	55.81%	Antigua Barracuda FC	0	1453.04	24.64%	19.55%
17	2012-04-20	15.42	Rochester Rhinos	2	1533.93	40.98%	@ Los Angeles Blues	0	1470.85	37.35%	21.67%
18	2012-07-27	15.34	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	4	1378.14	49.99%	Antigua Barracuda FC	1	1351.71	29.22%	20.79%
19	2012-07-27	14.80	@ Orlando City SC	4	1693.50	65.18%	Charleston Battery	0	1547.09	18.27%	16.55%
20	2012-07-31	14.79	Los Angeles Blues	2	1470.39	42.96%	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0	1393.48	35.46%	21.58%
21	2012-04-07	14.78	Orlando City SC	2	1590.95	42.98%	@ Charlotte Eagles	0	1513.88	35.44%	21.58%
22	2012-04-21	14.28	Orlando City SC	2	1618.53	44.52%	@ Richmond Kickers	0	1530.62	34.01%	21.47%
23	2012-05-19	13.79	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	4	1528.29	67.01%	Dayton Dutch Lions	0	1365.87	17.14%	15.85%
24	2012-06-22	13.76	@ Orlando City SC	3	1637.84	59.64%	Harrisburg City Islanders	0	1537.63	21.90%	18.46%
25	2012-07-14	13.31	Los Angeles Blues	2	1474.57	47.56%	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	0	1365.02	31.29%	21.15%