2011 USL Season

139 regular-season games · 8 playoff teams

Final

Champion

Harrisburg City Islanders

1st Title

Runner-Up

Orlando City SC

1st Appearance

Biggest Overachiever

Orlando City SC

12.80 points above expected

50 points · 37.20 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Dayton Dutch Lions

12.68 points below expected

12 points · 24.68 expected points

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual points minus the simulation's mean points - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Pt%	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Orlando City SC Conference	15	3	5	50	.725	34	14	+20	37.20	+12.80
2	Wilmington Hammerheads Playoffs	14	7	3	45	.625	42	30	+12	36.02	+8.98
3	Richmond Kickers Playoffs	12	7	5	41	.569	35	21	+14	39.14	+1.86
4	Charleston Battery Playoffs	10	9	5	35	.486	24	25	-1	32.94	+2.06
5	Charlotte Eagles	9	9	6	33	.458	32	29	+3	33.22	-0.22
6	Antigua Barracuda FC	4	12	2	14	.259	18	29	-11	20.25	-6.25

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Pt%	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Rochester Rhinos Conference	12	8	4	40	.556	31	23	+8	35.66	+4.34
2	Harrisburg City Islanders Playoffs	10	7	7	37	.514	37	30	+7	34.90	+2.10
3	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Playoffs	7	11	6	27	.375	23	32	-9	29.66	-2.66
4	Los Angeles Blues Playoffs	6	7	8	26	.413	26	26	0	31.68	-5.68
5	FC New York	6	11	7	25	.347	27	37	-10	29.88	-4.88
6	Dayton Dutch Lions	2	16	6	12	.167	21	54	-33	24.68	-12.68

Playoff Bracket

American Conference

Semifinals

Richmond Kickers 0

Wilmington Hammerheads 0

Aug 19

Orlando City SC 3

Charleston Battery 1

Aug 20

Conference Final

Orlando City SC 3

Richmond Kickers 0

Aug 27

National Conference

Semifinals

Harrisburg City Islanders 3

Los Angeles Blues 1

Aug 19

Rochester Rhinos 4

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 0

Aug 19

Conference Final

Harrisburg City Islanders 2

Rochester Rhinos 1

Aug 26

USL Championship

Harrisburg City Islanders 2

Orlando City SC 2

Sep 3

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team	Conference	Elo	Points	Avg. Pts.	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Orlando City SC	American	1623	50	37.20	+12.80	98.42%	12	27	33	37	41	47	62
Richmond Kickers	American	1567	41	39.14	+1.86	64.17%	14	29	35	39	43	50	65
Wilmington Hammerheads	American	1554	45	36.02	+8.98	93.00%	10	26	32	36	40	47	63
Rochester Rhinos	National	1533	40	35.66	+4.34	77.54%	11	25	31	36	40	46	63
Harrisburg City Islanders	National	1533	37	34.90	+2.10	66.00%	9	25	31	35	39	45	61
Charlotte Eagles	American	1525	33	33.22	-0.22	52.21%	9	23	29	33	38	44	61
Charleston Battery	American	1496	35	32.94	+2.06	65.78%	7	23	29	33	37	43	59
Los Angeles Blues	National	1482	26	31.68	-5.68	19.34%	8	22	28	32	36	41	56
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	National	1463	27	29.66	-2.66	37.16%	5	20	25	30	34	40	60
FC New York	National	1458	25	29.88	-4.88	24.53%	7	20	26	30	34	40	55
Antigua Barracuda FC	American	1444	14	20.25	-6.25	14.15%	1	12	17	20	24	29	43
Dayton Dutch Lions	National	1323	12	24.68	-12.68	1.55%	3	15	21	25	29	35	53

Head-to-Head

Cells show the number of points earned against each opponent with the expected points from the simulation below. Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than one point. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within American

Team	FC	Battery	Eagles	SC	Kickers	Hammerheads
Antigua Barracuda FC	—	-	0 (1.2 exp.)	3 (3.1 exp.)	0 (0.7 exp.)	0 (2.6 exp.)
Charleston Battery	-	—	9 (4.3 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)	3 (2.3 exp.)	6 (3.6 exp.)
Charlotte Eagles	3 (1.6 exp.)	0 (3.9 exp.)	—	1 (2.4 exp.)	3 (2.5 exp.)	6 (4.2 exp.)
Orlando City SC	6 (5.2 exp.)	6 (5.5 exp.)	4 (3.1 exp.)	—	3 (2.7 exp.)	4 (3.1 exp.)
Richmond Kickers	3 (2.1 exp.)	3 (3.2 exp.)	3 (3.0 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)	—	6 (2.9 exp.)
Wilmington Hammerheads	6 (3.0 exp.)	3 (4.7 exp.)	3 (4.0 exp.)	1 (2.5 exp.)	0 (2.6 exp.)	—

American vs. Outside Teams

Team	Lions	York	Islanders	Blues	Riverhounds	Rhinos
Antigua Barracuda FC	-	0 (1.1 exp.)	-	10 (6.4 exp.)	0 (1.2 exp.)	1 (4.1 exp.)
Charleston Battery	7 (4.8 exp.)	1 (3.0 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)	1 (1.6 exp.)	2 (5.0 exp.)	0 (2.6 exp.)
Charlotte Eagles	4 (3.4 exp.)	4 (2.9 exp.)	1 (4.3 exp.)	3 (2.0 exp.)	4 (3.4 exp.)	4 (2.4 exp.)
Orlando City SC	4 (3.8 exp.)	6 (2.9 exp.)	6 (3.1 exp.)	-	4 (3.6 exp.)	7 (4.3 exp.)
Richmond Kickers	9 (5.7 exp.)	5 (5.0 exp.)	1 (3.4 exp.)	2 (4.8 exp.)	3 (3.2 exp.)	3 (2.9 exp.)
Wilmington Hammerheads	3 (2.0 exp.)	6 (3.3 exp.)	6 (2.6 exp.)	6 (3.4 exp.)	7 (5.0 exp.)	4 (2.9 exp.)

Within National

Team	Lions	York	Islanders	Blues	Riverhounds	Rhinos
Dayton Dutch Lions	—	3 (3.8 exp.)	1 (2.5 exp.)	2 (2.9 exp.)	3 (2.4 exp.)	0 (2.3 exp.)
FC New York	6 (4.5 exp.)	—	2 (3.1 exp.)	-	1 (3.8 exp.)	6 (3.4 exp.)
Harrisburg City Islanders	7 (5.9 exp.)	5 (5.3 exp.)	—	5 (4.0 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Blues	5 (5.5 exp.)	-	2 (4.3 exp.)	—	3 (1.1 exp.)	-
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	3 (3.2 exp.)	7 (4.4 exp.)	3 (2.7 exp.)	0 (1.7 exp.)	—	0 (3.1 exp.)
Rochester Rhinos	6 (3.3 exp.)	3 (4.9 exp.)	3 (2.8 exp.)	-	9 (5.2 exp.)	—

National vs. Outside Teams

Team	FC	Battery	Eagles	SC	Kickers	Hammerheads
Dayton Dutch Lions	-	1 (3.5 exp.)	1 (2.1 exp.)	1 (1.8 exp.)	0 (2.7 exp.)	0 (0.8 exp.)
FC New York	3 (1.7 exp.)	4 (2.5 exp.)	1 (2.6 exp.)	0 (2.7 exp.)	2 (3.3 exp.)	0 (2.2 exp.)
Harrisburg City Islanders	-	3 (2.7 exp.)	7 (4.0 exp.)	0 (2.4 exp.)	4 (2.2 exp.)	0 (2.9 exp.)
Los Angeles Blues	7 (10.3 exp.)	1 (1.2 exp.)	3 (3.5 exp.)	-	5 (3.5 exp.)	0 (2.1 exp.)
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	3 (1.6 exp.)	5 (3.3 exp.)	1 (2.1 exp.)	1 (2.0 exp.)	3 (2.3 exp.)	1 (3.3 exp.)
Rochester Rhinos	7 (4.2 exp.)	6 (2.9 exp.)	1 (3.2 exp.)	1 (4.0 exp.)	3 (2.6 exp.)	1 (2.6 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's goals in the row and its opponent's goals in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.35%	8.99%	5.40%	3.96%	0.72%	0.72%	29.14%
1	8.99%	9.35%	11.15%	3.96%	0.72%	0.36%	34.53%
2	5.40%	11.15%	4.32%	1.08%	1.08%	—	23.02%
3	3.96%	3.96%	1.08%	—	0.36%	—	9.35%
4	0.72%	0.72%	1.08%	0.36%	—	—	2.88%
5+	0.72%	0.36%	—	—	—	—	1.08%
Total	29.14%	34.53%	23.02%	9.35%	2.88%	1.08%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.26	1.26	+0.00
SD	1.14	1.14	1.70
CV	0.90	0.90	—
Max	6	6	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 139

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	22.22%	—	—	—	33.33%
1	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	38.89%
2	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	27.78%	50.00%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Antigua Barracuda FC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	1.61	-0.61
SD	0.91	0.85	1.38
CV	0.91	0.53	—
Max	3	3	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.50%	20.83%	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	41.67%
1	12.50%	4.17%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
2	4.17%	20.83%	4.17%	—	—	—	29.17%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	4.17%	—	—	4.17%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	29.17%	45.83%	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	100%

Charleston Battery — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	1.04	-0.04
SD	1.06	0.91	1.20
CV	1.06	0.87	—
Max	4	3	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	12.50%	—	4.17%	4.17%	—	29.17%
1	4.17%	8.33%	12.50%	—	—	—	25.00%
2	12.50%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	29.17%
3	8.33%	4.17%	—	—	4.17%	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	33.33%	20.83%	4.17%	8.33%	—	100%

Charlotte Eagles — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.33	1.21	+0.12
SD	1.09	1.22	1.73
CV	0.82	1.01	—
Max	3	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.17%	12.50%	4.17%	8.33%	—	8.33%	37.50%
1	—	12.50%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	37.50%
2	4.17%	4.17%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	29.17%	20.83%	25.00%	8.33%	8.33%	100%

Dayton Dutch Lions — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.88	2.25	-1.38
SD	0.80	1.51	1.81
CV	0.91	0.67	—
Max	2	6	+2
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.50%	—	12.50%	4.17%	—	—	29.17%
1	4.17%	12.50%	8.33%	16.67%	—	4.17%	45.83%
2	4.17%	8.33%	4.17%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	4.17%	—	—	—	—	—	4.17%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	4.17%	—	—	—	—	—	4.17%
Total	29.17%	20.83%	25.00%	20.83%	—	4.17%	100%

FC New York — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.12	1.54	-0.42
SD	1.15	1.35	2.00
CV	1.03	0.88	—
Max	5	5	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.17%	8.33%	—	—	4.17%	—	16.67%
1	16.67%	20.83%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	54.17%
2	—	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	—	8.33%
3	—	—	4.17%	—	—	—	4.17%
4	4.17%	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	—	12.50%
5+	—	4.17%	—	—	—	—	4.17%
Total	25.00%	41.67%	20.83%	8.33%	4.17%	—	100%

Harrisburg City Islanders — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.54	1.25	+0.29
SD	1.41	1.07	1.83
CV	0.92	0.86	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	14.29%	4.76%	—	4.76%	—	—	23.81%
1	—	23.81%	19.05%	—	—	—	42.86%
2	—	19.05%	—	—	4.76%	—	23.81%
3	4.76%	—	—	—	—	—	4.76%
4	—	4.76%	—	—	—	—	4.76%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	19.05%	52.38%	19.05%	4.76%	4.76%	—	100%

Los Angeles Blues — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.24	1.24	+0.00
SD	1.04	1.00	1.41
CV	0.84	0.80	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	17.39%	4.35%	4.35%	—	—	—	26.09%
1	21.74%	4.35%	4.35%	—	—	—	30.43%
2	4.35%	17.39%	—	—	—	—	21.74%
3	4.35%	8.70%	—	—	—	—	13.04%
4	4.35%	—	4.35%	—	—	—	8.70%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	52.17%	34.78%	13.04%	—	—	—	100%

Orlando City SC — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.48	0.61	+0.87
SD	1.27	0.72	1.32
CV	0.86	1.19	—
Max	4	2	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 23

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	8.33%	4.17%	12.50%	—	—	41.67%
1	4.17%	4.17%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
2	16.67%	4.17%	4.17%	—	4.17%	—	29.17%
3	—	4.17%	—	—	—	—	4.17%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	37.50%	20.83%	16.67%	20.83%	4.17%	—	100%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.96	1.33	-0.38
SD	0.95	1.31	1.69
CV	1.00	0.98	—
Max	3	4	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.50%	4.17%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
1	8.33%	4.17%	16.67%	—	—	—	29.17%
2	12.50%	16.67%	4.17%	—	—	—	33.33%
3	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	4.17%	—	—	—	—	—	4.17%
Total	41.67%	29.17%	29.17%	—	—	—	100%

Richmond Kickers — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.46	0.88	+0.58
SD	1.35	0.85	1.77
CV	0.93	0.97	—
Max	6	2	+6
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.17%	16.67%	—	4.17%	—	—	25.00%
1	20.83%	4.17%	12.50%	—	—	—	37.50%
2	4.17%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	20.83%
3	8.33%	4.17%	4.17%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	37.50%	33.33%	25.00%	4.17%	—	—	100%

Rochester Rhinos — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.29	0.96	+0.33
SD	1.04	0.91	1.43
CV	0.81	0.95	—
Max	3	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.17%	4.17%	8.33%	4.17%	—	—	20.83%
1	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
2	—	12.50%	—	—	4.17%	—	16.67%
3	8.33%	20.83%	4.17%	—	—	—	33.33%
4	—	—	4.17%	—	—	—	4.17%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	20.83%	45.83%	25.00%	4.17%	4.17%	—	100%

Wilmington Hammerheads — Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.75	1.25	+0.50
SD	1.26	0.99	1.69
CV	0.72	0.79	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 24

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.71	+13.7
Allowed	0.56	-8.9
Differential	0.86	+7.6

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Orlando City SC	50	37.20	+12.80
2	Wilmington Hammerheads	45	36.02	+8.98
3	Rochester Rhinos	40	35.66	+4.34
4	Harrisburg City Islanders	37	34.90	+2.10
5	Charleston Battery	35	32.94	+2.06

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Dayton Dutch Lions	12	24.68	-12.68
2	Antigua Barracuda FC	14	20.25	-6.25
3	Los Angeles Blues	26	31.68	-5.68
4	FC New York	25	29.88	-4.88
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	27	29.66	-2.66

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak. Unbeaten counts W or T consecutively; Winless counts L or T consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Orlando City SC	5	Apr 9 – May 14	1 in 94
2	Richmond Kickers	6	Apr 2 – May 7	1 in 92
3	Wilmington Hammerheads	4	Jul 23 – Aug 5	1 in 32
4	Rochester Rhinos	4	Jun 11 – Jul 1	1 in 19
5	FC New York	2	Aug 7 – Aug 10	1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Antigua Barracuda FC	7	Jun 24 – Jul 16	1 in 211
2	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	5	May 31 – Jun 24	1 in 36
3	Dayton Dutch Lions	6	Jun 8 – Jul 4	1 in 21
4	Charleston Battery	3	May 7 – May 21	1 in 18
5	FC New York	3	Jul 4 – Jul 9	1 in 12

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Orlando City SC	10	Apr 9 – Jun 4	1 in 88
2	Charlotte Eagles	7	May 14 – Jun 24	1 in 26
3	Harrisburg City Islanders	6	Jun 17 – Jul 15	1 in 25
4	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	6	Jun 25 – Jul 20	1 in 25
5	Richmond Kickers	7	Apr 2 – May 14	1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	FC New York	8	Jul 4 – Aug 5	1 in 21
2	Los Angeles Blues	5	Jun 24 – Jul 15	1 in 21
3	Dayton Dutch Lions	13	Jun 8 – Jul 27	1 in 18
4	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	7	May 22 – Jun 24	1 in 15
5	Charleston Battery	5	Apr 30 – May 21	1 in 13

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
Richmond Kickers	36.39%	24.63%	18.15%	12.80%	7.18%	0.84%
Orlando City SC	24.36%	24.34%	21.52%	17.04%	10.90%	1.84%
Wilmington Hammerheads	19.33%	21.63%	21.49%	19.49%	15.38%	2.68%
Charlotte Eagles	10.37%	14.85%	19.40%	23.71%	26.44%	5.23%
Charleston Battery	9.51%	14.34%	18.64%	24.05%	28.31%	5.15%
Antigua Barracuda FC	0.04%	0.21%	0.79%	2.90%	11.79%	84.27%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
Rochester Rhinos	35.06%	24.59%	17.04%	11.88%	7.85%	3.59%
Harrisburg City Islanders	30.32%	24.14%	18.16%	13.52%	9.32%	4.53%
Los Angeles Blues	13.23%	19.11%	21.61%	20.46%	16.28%	9.32%
FC New York	9.90%	13.98%	17.35%	20.44%	21.40%	16.93%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	9.44%	13.53%	17.54%	20.28%	22.15%	17.05%
Dayton Dutch Lions	2.05%	4.66%	8.30%	13.42%	22.99%	48.59%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Richmond Kickers	26.73%	18.15%	13.52%	10.76%	8.65%	6.88%	5.27%	4.10%	2.94%	1.81%	0.91%	0.29%
Orlando City SC	17.03%	15.52%	13.78%	12.22%	10.24%	8.80%	7.22%	5.86%	4.30%	2.90%	1.59%	0.53%
Wilmington Hammerheads	13.37%	13.34%	12.53%	11.54%	10.66%	9.40%	8.47%	7.18%	5.90%	4.25%	2.46%	0.89%
Rochester Rhinos	12.21%	12.66%	12.34%	11.55%	10.59%	9.86%	8.62%	7.54%	6.17%	4.63%	2.65%	1.18%
Harrisburg City Islanders	9.85%	10.92%	11.51%	11.37%	11.05%	10.23%	9.44%	8.43%	7.22%	5.60%	3.25%	1.14%
Charlotte Eagles	6.66%	8.27%	9.28%	9.86%	10.07%	10.38%	10.40%	10.14%	9.51%	8.05%	5.22%	2.17%
Charleston Battery	6.03%	7.79%	8.90%	9.65%	10.18%	10.54%	10.65%	10.39%	9.55%	8.37%	5.69%	2.26%
Los Angeles Blues	3.10%	5.24%	6.90%	8.53%	9.96%	11.13%	11.78%	12.04%	11.42%	9.51%	6.45%	3.95%
FC New York	2.44%	3.80%	5.11%	6.23%	7.74%	8.90%	10.41%	11.61%	13.10%	13.44%	11.05%	6.19%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	2.28%	3.53%	4.82%	6.17%	7.48%	8.79%	10.20%	11.66%	13.10%	14.17%	11.45%	6.34%
Dayton Dutch Lions	0.30%	0.73%	1.18%	1.84%	2.87%	4.12%	5.76%	7.95%	11.42%	16.70%	26.01%	21.11%
Antigua Barracuda FC	<0.01%	0.05%	0.13%	0.28%	0.50%	0.99%	1.78%	3.10%	5.36%	10.56%	23.28%	53.96%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Richmond Kickers	36.39%	24.63%	18.15%	12.80%	8.02%
Orlando City SC	24.36%	24.34%	21.52%	17.04%	12.74%
Wilmington Hammerheads	19.33%	21.63%	21.49%	19.49%	18.06%
Charlotte Eagles	10.37%	14.85%	19.40%	23.71%	31.67%
Charleston Battery	9.51%	14.34%	18.64%	24.05%	33.45%
Antigua Barracuda FC	0.04%	0.21%	0.79%	2.90%	96.07%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Rochester Rhinos	35.06%	24.59%	17.04%	11.88%	11.44%
Harrisburg City Islanders	30.32%	24.14%	18.16%	13.52%	13.86%
Los Angeles Blues	13.23%	19.11%	21.61%	20.46%	25.59%
FC New York	9.90%	13.98%	17.35%	20.44%	38.33%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	9.44%	13.53%	17.54%	20.28%	39.21%
Dayton Dutch Lions	2.05%	4.66%	8.30%	13.42%	71.57%

Points Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of points. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median points for that seed.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points that 1 goal is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 goal at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals - average away goals per game. The gold line represents the expected home goals edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -0.8 · Lean Road: -0.8 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 0.8 · Home-Tilted: 0.8 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+17.99%

Fortress

47.48%23.02%29.50%

Elo Value

Home Edge

183 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

063.18500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.36 goals

Lean Home

-2+0.35+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would win the title based on the simulated results. Location of the dot marks their rank across all teams, ranging from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st · Among the Favorites: 2nd · Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th · Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Run Odds: Given that actual playoff bracket, the probability that the champion would win the exact series/games they faced in reality. The gold line represents their odds of winning if every series/game was a toss-up.
Long Shot: under 6.25% · Tough Road: 6.25% to 12.5% · Favored: 12.5% to 25% · Heavy Favorite: 25% and up.

Title-Race Openness

7.5

Open Race

124810

Champion Preseason Odds

13%

Harrisburg City Islanders, 4th of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Run Odds

Coin-flip

7.9%

Tough Road

012.50%25%

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual points total and their simulated average points total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 4.94 · As Expected: 4.94 to 6.79 · Elevated: 6.79 to 9.26 · High Variance: 9.26 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 1.97 · Close: 1.97 to 2.67 · Off Target: 2.67 to 3.48 · Well Off Target: 3.48 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 12 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 12 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.6 · As Expected: 0.6 to 1.44 · Several Outliers: 1.44 to 2.64 · Many Outliers: 2.64 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams: Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 1.16 · As Expected: 1.16 to 1.94 · More Than Expected: 1.94 to 3.1 · Far More Than Expected: 3.1 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

6.70 points

As Expected

06.1815

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.00

Pinpoint

02.325

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

98.42%

Orlando City SC

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

1.55%

Dayton Dutch Lions

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 12

Several Outliers

01.26

Unexpected Playoff Teams

Expected

1 of 8

Fewer Than Expected

01.58

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: Measures how evenly points were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual point totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully: Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst: The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games: Actual percentage of games decided by 1 goal or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Actual percentage of games decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.20

Top-Heavy

00.080.150.240.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.63

Stratified

01.003

Interquartile Edge

61%

Competitive

50%58%65%73%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

85%

Lopsided

50%82%100%

Close Games

Expected

66%

Nail-Biters

0%62%100%

Blowouts

Expected

13%

Occasional

0%14%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 · Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 · Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 · Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness: How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.61

Predictable

00.622

Matchup Imbalance

0.26

Wide Gaps

00.120.220.340.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.22

Volatile

01.002

Repeatability

N/A

No prior ratings

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

26%

Chalk Held

0%28%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

25%

As Expected

0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.07 · Within Noise: 0.07 to 0.13 · Above Noise: 0.13 to 0.27 · Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.

Probability calibration

0.29

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.11

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.33

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.036

Well Within Noise

00.1340.3

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual points, simulated final points, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Conference Finals	Advanced to USL Championship	Won USL Championship
Orlando City SC	87.26%	54.61%	33.12%	22.18%
Richmond Kickers	91.98%	50.57%	26.11%	16.34%
Rochester Rhinos	88.56%	54.17%	31.00%	13.26%
Harrisburg City Islanders	86.14%	52.13%	29.37%	12.51%
Wilmington Hammerheads	81.94%	40.37%	19.05%	11.33%
Charlotte Eagles	68.33%	28.62%	12.13%	6.59%
Los Angeles Blues	74.41%	34.72%	15.88%	5.51%
Charleston Battery	66.55%	24.74%	9.27%	4.66%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	60.79%	26.15%	11.15%	3.62%
FC New York	61.67%	26.19%	10.98%	3.58%
Dayton Dutch Lions	28.43%	6.65%	1.62%	0.29%
Antigua Barracuda FC	3.93%	1.08%	0.32%	0.12%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Antigua Barracuda FC	Charleston Battery	Charlotte Eagles	Orlando City SC	Richmond Kickers	Wilmington Hammerheads
Antigua Barracuda FC		33.9%0.47%	31.5%0.43%	25.4%0.85%	26.9%1.45%	25.0%0.73%
Charleston Battery	66.1%0.47%		46.1%10.67%	30.4%18.57%	35.9%20.66%	40.0%16.18%
Charlotte Eagles	68.5%0.43%	53.9%10.67%		34.2%19.26%	40.5%21.07%	44.1%16.88%
Orlando City SC	74.6%0.85%	69.6%18.57%	65.8%19.26%		56.4%24.62%	60.5%23.96%
Richmond Kickers	73.1%1.45%	64.1%20.66%	59.5%21.07%	43.6%24.62%		53.7%24.18%
Wilmington Hammerheads	75.0%0.73%	60.0%16.18%	55.9%16.88%	39.5%23.96%	46.3%24.18%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dayton Dutch Lions	FC New York	Harrisburg City Islanders	Los Angeles Blues	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Rochester Rhinos
Dayton Dutch Lions		30.1%3.39%	19.7%8.00%	28.1%4.69%	29.8%3.55%	19.1%8.79%
FC New York	69.9%3.39%		36.7%17.53%	46.5%12.80%	49.5%9.10%	36.8%18.85%
Harrisburg City Islanders	80.3%8.00%	63.3%17.53%		59.6%22.76%	62.7%17.09%	49.7%20.76%
Los Angeles Blues	71.9%4.69%	53.5%12.80%	40.4%22.76%		53.2%12.52%	39.9%21.63%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	70.2%3.55%	50.5%9.10%	37.3%17.09%	46.8%12.52%		36.9%18.53%
Rochester Rhinos	80.9%8.79%	63.2%18.85%	50.3%20.76%	60.1%21.63%	63.1%18.53%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Antigua Barracuda FC	Charleston Battery	Charlotte Eagles	Orlando City SC	Richmond Kickers	Wilmington Hammerheads
Antigua Barracuda FC		44.4%0.12%	27.7%0.14%	20.6%0.31%	31.7%0.28%	31.0%0.23%
Charleston Battery	55.6%0.12%		44.5%3.57%	31.6%8.40%	37.7%7.30%	41.2%5.34%
Charlotte Eagles	72.3%0.14%	55.5%3.57%		35.8%9.99%	42.0%8.60%	45.3%6.32%
Orlando City SC	79.4%0.31%	68.4%8.40%	64.2%9.99%		56.1%20.92%	59.9%14.99%
Richmond Kickers	68.3%0.28%	62.3%7.30%	58.0%8.60%	43.9%20.92%		53.4%13.48%
Wilmington Hammerheads	69.0%0.23%	58.8%5.34%	54.7%6.32%	40.1%14.99%	46.6%13.48%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dayton Dutch Lions	FC New York	Harrisburg City Islanders	Los Angeles Blues	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Rochester Rhinos
Dayton Dutch Lions		27.4%0.81%	19.9%1.92%	28.7%1.12%	31.7%0.80%	22.1%2.00%
FC New York	72.6%0.81%		38.0%8.34%	45.9%5.05%	48.9%3.40%	37.8%8.58%
Harrisburg City Islanders	80.1%1.92%	62.0%8.34%		58.8%10.96%	60.7%8.43%	49.3%22.48%
Los Angeles Blues	71.3%1.12%	54.1%5.05%	41.2%10.96%		53.7%5.00%	41.0%12.58%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	68.3%0.80%	51.1%3.40%	39.3%8.43%	46.3%5.00%		38.0%8.52%
Rochester Rhinos	77.9%2.00%	62.2%8.58%	50.7%22.48%	59.0%12.58%	62.0%8.52%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dayton Dutch Lions	FC New York	Harrisburg City Islanders	Los Angeles Blues	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Rochester Rhinos	Antigua Barracuda FC	Charleston Battery	Charlotte Eagles	Orlando City SC	Richmond Kickers	Wilmington Hammerheads
Antigua Barracuda FC	80.0%<0.01%	38.9%0.04%	38.2%0.09%	34.1%0.04%	41.9%0.04%	36.0%0.10%
Charleston Battery	78.9%0.16%	56.8%1.04%	45.4%2.71%	53.5%1.48%	59.9%0.95%	46.0%2.92%
Charlotte Eagles	78.9%0.19%	62.9%1.37%	50.0%3.56%	57.7%1.90%	60.2%1.33%	50.2%3.77%
Orlando City SC	86.6%0.57%	72.6%3.59%	63.2%9.69%	70.9%5.35%	72.3%3.71%	63.5%10.21%
Richmond Kickers	80.8%0.36%	68.6%2.79%	59.5%7.69%	66.6%4.16%	68.4%3.03%	58.4%8.07%
Wilmington Hammerheads	80.2%0.33%	65.4%2.15%	55.3%5.63%	64.6%2.94%	66.5%2.08%	55.1%5.91%
Dayton Dutch Lions							20.0%<0.01%	21.1%0.16%	21.1%0.19%	13.4%0.57%	19.2%0.36%	19.8%0.33%
FC New York							61.1%0.04%	43.2%1.04%	37.1%1.37%	27.4%3.59%	31.4%2.79%	34.6%2.15%
Harrisburg City Islanders							61.8%0.09%	54.6%2.71%	50.0%3.56%	36.8%9.69%	40.5%7.69%	44.7%5.63%
Los Angeles Blues							65.9%0.04%	46.5%1.48%	42.3%1.90%	29.1%5.35%	33.4%4.16%	35.4%2.94%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds							58.1%0.04%	40.1%0.95%	39.8%1.33%	27.7%3.71%	31.6%3.03%	33.5%2.08%
Rochester Rhinos							64.0%0.10%	54.0%2.92%	49.8%3.77%	36.5%10.21%	41.6%8.07%	44.9%5.91%

Actual Bracket Simulation

Team	Advanced to Conference Finals	Advanced to USL Championship	Won USL Championship	Actual Outcome
Orlando City SC	74.85%	49.81%	35.62%	Eliminated in USL Championship
Harrisburg City Islanders	65.62%	32.11%	11.37%	Won USL Championship

Loser → ↓ Winner	Charleston Battery	Orlando City SC	Richmond Kickers	Wilmington Hammerheads
Charleston Battery		25.2%100.00%
Orlando City SC	74.8%100.00%
Richmond Kickers				43.1%100.00%
Wilmington Hammerheads			56.9%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Harrisburg City Islanders	Los Angeles Blues	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Rochester Rhinos
Harrisburg City Islanders		65.6%100.00%
Los Angeles Blues	34.4%100.00%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds				31.7%100.00%
Rochester Rhinos			68.3%100.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Charleston Battery	Orlando City SC	Richmond Kickers	Wilmington Hammerheads
Charleston Battery			32.7%10.84%	34.7%14.32%
Orlando City SC			65.1%32.31%	67.7%42.54%
Richmond Kickers	67.3%10.84%	34.9%32.31%
Wilmington Hammerheads	65.3%14.32%	32.3%42.54%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Harrisburg City Islanders	Los Angeles Blues	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Rochester Rhinos
Harrisburg City Islanders			66.9%20.73%	40.6%44.89%
Los Angeles Blues			61.2%10.96%	35.2%23.41%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	33.1%20.73%	38.8%10.96%
Rochester Rhinos	59.4%44.89%	64.8%23.41%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Harrisburg City Islanders	Los Angeles Blues	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Rochester Rhinos	Charleston Battery	Orlando City SC	Richmond Kickers	Wilmington Hammerheads
Charleston Battery	38.8%2.80%	62.3%1.22%	63.9%0.92%	38.5%3.57%
Orlando City SC	70.3%15.96%	74.1%7.44%	75.6%5.58%	70.4%20.83%
Richmond Kickers	64.5%5.96%	70.6%2.83%	70.3%2.10%	64.5%7.68%
Wilmington Hammerheads	62.2%7.39%	68.9%3.46%	70.0%2.51%	61.8%9.75%
Harrisburg City Islanders					61.2%2.80%	29.7%15.96%	35.5%5.96%	37.8%7.39%
Los Angeles Blues					37.7%1.22%	25.9%7.44%	29.4%2.83%	31.1%3.46%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds					36.1%0.92%	24.4%5.58%	29.7%2.10%	30.0%2.51%
Rochester Rhinos					61.5%3.57%	29.6%20.83%	35.5%7.68%	38.2%9.75%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Orlando City SC 35.62% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Charleston Battery

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

74.85%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Wilmington Hammerheads

Matchup

57.77%

Win Prob

67.65%

→

USL Championship

vs. Rochester Rhinos

Matchup

41.19%

Win Prob

70.43%

Rochester Rhinos 14.80% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

68.31%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Harrisburg City Islanders

Matchup

63.73%

Win Prob

59.38%

→

USL Championship

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

41.60%

Win Prob

29.57%

Wilmington Hammerheads 14.77% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Richmond Kickers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

56.85%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

59.54%

Win Prob

32.35%

→

USL Championship

vs. Rochester Rhinos

Matchup

40.81%

Win Prob

61.81%

Richmond Kickers 12.27% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Wilmington Hammerheads

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

43.15%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

60.72%

Win Prob

34.90%

→

USL Championship

vs. Rochester Rhinos

Matchup

40.35%

Win Prob

64.46%

Harrisburg City Islanders 11.37% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Los Angeles Blues

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

65.62%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Rochester Rhinos

Matchup

56.79%

Win Prob

40.62%

→

USL Championship

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

41.75%

Win Prob

29.74%

Los Angeles Blues 4.30% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Harrisburg City Islanders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

34.38%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Rochester Rhinos

Matchup

55.12%

Win Prob

35.21%

→

USL Championship

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

44.81%

Win Prob

25.86%

Charleston Battery 3.81% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

25.15%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Wilmington Hammerheads

Matchup

58.38%

Win Prob

34.70%

→

USL Championship

vs. Rochester Rhinos

Matchup

36.08%

Win Prob

38.54%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3.07% chance to win

Conference Semifinals

vs. Rochester Rhinos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

31.69%

→

Conference Finals

vs. Harrisburg City Islanders

Matchup

61.74%

Win Prob

33.08%

→

USL Championship

vs. Orlando City SC

Matchup

44.34%

Win Prob

24.37%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
2011-04-17	Los Angeles Blues	L 1-2	1500.00	1500.00	46.75%	23.72%	29.53%	-9.86	0
2011-05-01	@ Los Angeles Blues	W 1-0	1490.14	1509.86	27.31%	23.23%	49.46%	+10.94	3
2011-05-14	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 0-2	1501.08	1495.89	30.14%	23.83%	46.03%	-13.95	3
2011-05-20	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 0-2	1487.13	1476.97	30.74%	23.92%	45.34%	-14.19	3
2011-06-03	Rochester Rhinos	L 1-2	1472.94	1500.94	42.82%	24.20%	32.98%	-9.21	3
2011-06-05	Rochester Rhinos	T 2-2	1463.73	1510.15	40.20%	24.37%	35.43%	-0.16	4
2011-06-10	@ Orlando City SC	W 2-1	1463.57	1583.46	18.45%	19.29%	62.25%	+12.40	7
2011-06-24	Orlando City SC	L 1-3	1475.97	1569.53	33.60%	24.25%	42.14%	-13.22	7
2011-06-26	Orlando City SC	L 1-2	1462.75	1582.75	30.28%	23.85%	45.87%	-7.00	7
2011-07-01	@ FC New York	L 0-2	1455.75	1468.56	28.07%	23.41%	48.52%	-13.12	7
2011-07-03	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 0-2	1442.63	1434.68	30.47%	23.88%	45.65%	-14.09	7
2011-07-08	Wilmington Hammerheads	L 0-1	1428.54	1506.24	35.74%	24.38%	39.88%	-8.50	7
2011-07-10	Wilmington Hammerheads	L 2-3	1420.04	1514.73	33.46%	24.24%	42.30%	-7.21	7
2011-07-16	@ Richmond Kickers	L 0-1	1412.83	1561.68	16.49%	17.87%	65.63%	-4.04	7
2011-07-29	@ Los Angeles Blues	W 2-1	1408.79	1522.62	18.89%	19.58%	61.53%	+12.29	10
2011-07-31	@ Los Angeles Blues	L 1-2	1421.08	1510.34	20.78%	20.70%	58.52%	-4.92	10
2011-08-02	@ Los Angeles Blues	T 1-1	1416.16	1515.25	20.00%	20.26%	59.73%	+2.00	11
2011-08-07	Los Angeles Blues	W 3-0	1418.16	1507.53	34.16%	24.29%	41.55%	+26.11	14
2011-04-09	Charlotte Eagles	W 1-0	1500.00	1500.00	46.75%	23.72%	29.53%	+7.27	3
2011-04-16	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	W 2-1	1507.27	1500.00	30.39%	23.87%	45.74%	+9.70	6
2011-04-23	@ Richmond Kickers	L 1-2	1516.97	1527.03	28.38%	23.48%	48.14%	-6.63	6
2011-04-29	@ Charlotte Eagles	W 2-1	1510.34	1481.65	33.07%	24.20%	42.73%	+9.19	9
2011-04-30	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 0-0	1519.53	1489.27	50.88%	22.92%	26.20%	-1.34	10
2011-05-06	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 0-0	1518.19	1490.61	32.92%	24.19%	42.89%	+0.52	11
2011-05-07	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 0-1	1518.71	1495.57	32.36%	24.13%	43.51%	-7.85	11
2011-05-13	FC New York	L 0-1	1510.86	1470.59	52.22%	22.60%	25.18%	-11.43	11
2011-05-21	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 0-3	1499.43	1523.91	26.80%	23.09%	50.10%	-18.29	11
2011-05-24	Richmond Kickers	W 2-1	1481.14	1586.63	32.07%	24.10%	43.83%	+9.38	14
2011-05-28	Harrisburg City Islanders	W 2-1	1490.52	1485.50	47.44%	23.60%	28.95%	+6.74	17
2011-06-03	@ FC New York	T 1-1	1497.26	1467.80	33.17%	24.21%	42.62%	+0.44	18
2011-06-04	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 0-1	1497.70	1489.01	30.56%	23.89%	45.54%	-7.49	18
2011-06-17	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 1-0	1490.21	1402.61	58.31%	20.77%	20.92%	+5.25	21
2011-06-24	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	W 2-0	1495.46	1515.62	27.27%	23.22%	49.52%	+20.65	24
2011-06-25	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 0-2	1516.11	1409.02	60.71%	19.90%	19.39%	-24.31	24
2011-07-01	Los Angeles Blues	T 0-0	1491.80	1512.22	43.90%	24.09%	32.01%	-0.63	25
2011-07-09	Orlando City SC	W 1-0	1491.17	1594.53	32.34%	24.13%	43.53%	+9.89	28
2011-07-14	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 2-1	1501.06	1521.95	43.83%	24.10%	32.07%	+7.34	31
2011-07-23	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	T 2-2	1508.40	1366.69	48.86%	23.35%	27.79%	-0.75	32
2011-07-30	Rochester Rhinos	L 0-1	1507.65	1560.46	39.28%	24.40%	36.32%	-9.14	32
2011-08-03	@ Orlando City SC	L 0-1	1498.51	1590.75	20.54%	20.57%	58.89%	-5.14	32
2011-08-06	@ Orlando City SC	L 1-2	1493.37	1595.89	19.74%	20.11%	60.16%	-4.65	32
2011-08-12	Charlotte Eagles	W 4-3	1488.72	1532.57	40.57%	24.35%	35.09%	+7.31	35
2011-04-09	@ Charleston Battery	L 0-1	1500.00	1500.00	29.53%	23.72%	46.75%	-7.27	0
2011-04-16	Orlando City SC	L 0-1	1492.73	1507.14	44.74%	24.00%	31.26%	-10.11	0
2011-04-23	FC New York	T 0-0	1482.62	1479.15	47.23%	23.64%	29.13%	-0.97	1
2011-04-29	Charleston Battery	L 1-2	1481.65	1510.34	42.73%	24.20%	33.07%	-9.18	1
2011-05-12	@ Los Angeles Blues	L 1-2	1472.47	1498.92	26.60%	23.04%	50.37%	-6.25	1
2011-05-14	@ Los Angeles Blues	W 2-1	1466.22	1505.17	25.31%	22.65%	52.04%	+10.75	4
2011-05-20	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-0	1476.97	1487.13	45.34%	23.92%	30.74%	+14.18	7
2011-05-28	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	T 1-1	1491.15	1425.01	38.22%	24.41%	37.37%	-0.04	8
2011-06-02	@ Orlando City SC	T 0-0	1491.11	1571.15	21.54%	21.09%	57.36%	+2.00	9
2011-06-11	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 3-0	1493.11	1537.04	40.56%	24.35%	35.09%	+22.94	12
2011-06-18	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 2-0	1516.05	1397.36	62.11%	19.35%	18.54%	+8.69	15
2011-06-24	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 2-0	1524.74	1418.16	60.65%	19.92%	19.43%	+9.14	18
2011-07-02	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 0-4	1533.88	1525.70	30.50%	23.88%	45.61%	-26.74	18
2011-07-04	@ FC New York	W 3-1	1507.14	1481.68	32.65%	24.16%	43.18%	+16.05	21
2011-07-08	@ Richmond Kickers	W 2-1	1523.19	1563.02	25.23%	22.62%	52.16%	+10.77	24
2011-07-09	Richmond Kickers	L 1-2	1533.96	1552.25	44.20%	24.06%	31.74%	-9.44	24
2011-07-15	Harrisburg City Islanders	T 1-1	1524.52	1550.45	43.12%	24.17%	32.71%	-0.49	25
2011-07-22	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 1-0	1524.03	1527.96	46.21%	23.80%	29.99%	+7.37	28
2011-07-23	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 0-3	1531.40	1520.59	30.82%	23.93%	45.25%	-20.65	28
2011-07-29	Rochester Rhinos	T 2-2	1510.75	1560.32	39.75%	24.38%	35.87%	-0.13	29
2011-08-05	@ Rochester Rhinos	W 3-0	1510.62	1569.59	23.39%	21.94%	54.67%	+32.48	32
2011-08-06	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 2-2	1543.10	1469.22	39.33%	24.39%	36.27%	-0.10	33
2011-08-10	Harrisburg City Islanders	L 0-1	1543.00	1544.52	46.54%	23.75%	29.71%	-10.43	33
2011-08-12	@ Charleston Battery	L 3-4	1532.57	1488.72	35.09%	24.35%	40.57%	-7.31	33
2011-04-16	Charleston Battery	L 1-2	1500.00	1507.27	45.74%	23.87%	30.39%	-9.69	0
2011-04-23	Rochester Rhinos	L 2-3	1490.31	1486.12	47.33%	23.62%	29.05%	-9.45	0
2011-04-30	Richmond Kickers	L 0-6	1480.86	1533.65	39.28%	24.40%	36.32%	-47.83	0
2011-05-07	Orlando City SC	L 0-1	1433.03	1526.23	33.65%	24.26%	42.09%	-8.10	0
2011-05-20	Los Angeles Blues	T 1-1	1424.93	1494.42	36.89%	24.41%	38.70%	+0.08	1
2011-05-28	Charlotte Eagles	T 1-1	1425.01	1491.15	37.37%	24.41%	38.22%	+0.04	2
2011-06-04	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 2-1	1425.05	1458.10	42.11%	24.25%	33.64%	+7.64	5
2011-06-08	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 1-4	1432.69	1496.50	22.95%	21.75%	55.30%	-13.31	5
2011-06-10	@ FC New York	L 0-3	1419.38	1467.36	24.43%	22.34%	53.23%	-16.77	5
2011-06-17	@ Charleston Battery	L 0-1	1402.61	1490.21	20.92%	20.77%	58.31%	-5.25	5
2011-06-18	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 0-2	1397.36	1516.05	18.54%	19.35%	62.11%	-8.68	5
2011-06-25	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 0-1	1388.68	1540.96	16.28%	17.70%	66.02%	-3.98	5
2011-07-04	@ Richmond Kickers	L 1-3	1384.70	1557.08	15.05%	16.69%	68.26%	-5.94	5
2011-07-08	@ Orlando City SC	T 0-0	1378.76	1597.97	12.51%	14.32%	73.17%	+3.44	6
2011-07-10	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	T 2-2	1382.20	1552.45	15.18%	16.79%	68.03%	+2.00	7
2011-07-15	@ Los Angeles Blues	T 1-1	1384.20	1501.58	18.63%	19.41%	61.95%	+2.19	8
2011-07-17	@ Los Angeles Blues	L 1-4	1386.39	1499.39	18.95%	19.62%	61.43%	-10.91	8
2011-07-20	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 1-3	1375.48	1456.55	21.46%	21.05%	57.49%	-8.79	8
2011-07-23	Charleston Battery	T 2-2	1366.69	1508.40	27.79%	23.35%	48.86%	+0.76	9
2011-07-27	Harrisburg City Islanders	L 2-3	1367.45	1551.92	23.47%	21.97%	54.56%	-5.27	9
2011-07-31	FC New York	W 2-0	1362.18	1420.72	38.46%	24.41%	37.13%	+16.50	12
2011-08-06	@ Richmond Kickers	L 0-3	1378.68	1535.93	15.97%	17.45%	66.58%	-10.66	12
2011-08-10	FC New York	L 0-5	1368.02	1416.90	39.85%	24.38%	35.77%	-40.71	12
2011-08-13	Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-2	1327.31	1548.75	20.32%	20.44%	59.24%	-4.79	12
2011-04-09	@ Orlando City SC	L 0-3	1500.00	1486.29	31.18%	23.98%	44.84%	-20.85	0
2011-04-23	@ Charlotte Eagles	T 0-0	1479.15	1482.62	29.13%	23.64%	47.23%	+0.97	1
2011-04-30	Orlando City SC	L 1-2	1480.12	1517.24	41.53%	24.29%	34.18%	-8.99	1
2011-05-07	Harrisburg City Islanders	T 1-1	1471.13	1492.57	43.75%	24.11%	32.14%	-0.54	2
2011-05-13	@ Charleston Battery	W 1-0	1470.59	1510.86	25.18%	22.60%	52.22%	+11.43	5
2011-05-14	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-3	1482.02	1513.28	26.09%	22.89%	51.01%	-10.64	5
2011-05-21	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 0-2	1471.38	1483.88	28.11%	23.42%	48.47%	-13.13	5
2011-05-28	@ Richmond Kickers	T 2-2	1458.25	1562.57	19.60%	20.02%	60.38%	+1.53	6
2011-05-30	Rochester Rhinos	W 2-1	1459.78	1508.97	39.80%	24.38%	35.82%	+8.02	9
2011-06-03	Charleston Battery	T 1-1	1467.80	1497.26	42.62%	24.21%	33.17%	-0.44	10
2011-06-10	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 3-0	1467.36	1419.38	53.23%	22.34%	24.43%	+16.76	13
2011-06-12	Richmond Kickers	L 0-2	1484.12	1561.04	35.85%	24.38%	39.77%	-16.05	13
2011-06-24	Richmond Kickers	T 0-0	1468.07	1564.89	33.18%	24.21%	42.61%	+0.49	14
2011-07-01	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-0	1468.56	1455.75	48.52%	23.41%	28.07%	+13.12	17
2011-07-04	Charlotte Eagles	L 1-3	1481.68	1507.14	43.18%	24.16%	32.65%	-16.05	17
2011-07-08	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 1-3	1465.63	1542.70	21.79%	21.22%	56.99%	-8.93	17
2011-07-09	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 1-2	1456.70	1448.76	30.47%	23.88%	45.65%	-7.04	17
2011-07-16	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 1-1	1449.66	1455.80	45.90%	23.84%	30.26%	-0.75	18
2011-07-20	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 1-5	1448.91	1537.57	20.83%	20.72%	58.44%	-15.56	18
2011-07-29	Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-3	1433.35	1541.24	31.77%	24.06%	44.17%	-12.63	18
2011-07-31	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	L 0-2	1420.72	1362.18	37.13%	24.41%	38.46%	-16.50	18
2011-08-05	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	T 0-0	1404.22	1547.25	16.87%	18.16%	64.96%	+2.73	19
2011-08-07	Rochester Rhinos	W 2-1	1406.95	1537.10	29.09%	23.63%	47.28%	+9.95	22
2011-08-10	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	W 5-0	1416.90	1368.02	35.77%	24.38%	39.85%	+40.71	25
2011-04-23	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 0-1	1500.00	1493.46	30.31%	23.85%	45.84%	-7.43	0
2011-05-07	@ FC New York	T 1-1	1492.57	1471.13	32.14%	24.11%	43.75%	+0.54	1
2011-05-10	Rochester Rhinos	W 1-0	1493.11	1503.42	45.32%	23.92%	30.76%	+7.53	4
2011-05-14	Richmond Kickers	T 1-1	1500.64	1586.94	34.57%	24.32%	41.11%	+0.31	5
2011-05-22	Orlando City SC	L 1-3	1500.95	1541.02	41.11%	24.32%	34.57%	-15.45	5
2011-05-28	@ Charleston Battery	L 1-2	1485.50	1490.52	28.95%	23.60%	47.44%	-6.74	5
2011-05-31	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 4-2	1478.76	1468.35	48.19%	23.47%	28.34%	+10.25	8
2011-06-04	Charleston Battery	W 1-0	1489.01	1497.70	45.54%	23.89%	30.56%	+7.49	11
2011-06-08	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 4-1	1496.50	1432.69	55.30%	21.75%	22.95%	+13.31	14
2011-06-11	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 0-1	1509.81	1510.31	29.47%	23.71%	46.82%	-7.26	14
2011-06-17	@ Richmond Kickers	W 1-0	1502.55	1577.10	22.01%	21.32%	56.67%	+12.21	17
2011-06-24	@ Los Angeles Blues	T 1-1	1514.76	1523.17	28.56%	23.52%	47.91%	+0.93	18
2011-06-26	@ Los Angeles Blues	W 2-1	1515.69	1522.24	28.78%	23.57%	47.66%	+10.01	21
2011-07-02	Charlotte Eagles	W 4-0	1525.70	1533.88	45.61%	23.88%	30.50%	+26.75	24
2011-07-10	Dayton Dutch Lions	T 2-2	1552.45	1382.20	68.03%	16.79%	15.18%	-2.00	25
2011-07-15	@ Charlotte Eagles	T 1-1	1550.45	1524.52	32.71%	24.17%	43.12%	+0.49	26
2011-07-16	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-3	1550.94	1514.60	34.07%	24.29%	41.64%	-13.37	26
2011-07-20	FC New York	W 5-1	1537.57	1448.91	58.44%	20.72%	20.83%	+15.57	29
2011-07-23	Los Angeles Blues	T 1-1	1553.14	1521.40	51.08%	22.88%	26.04%	-1.22	30
2011-07-27	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	W 3-2	1551.92	1367.45	54.56%	21.97%	23.47%	+5.27	33
2011-07-30	Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-2	1557.19	1553.87	47.21%	23.64%	29.15%	-9.94	33
2011-08-05	FC New York	T 0-0	1547.25	1404.22	64.96%	18.16%	16.87%	-2.73	34
2011-08-10	@ Charlotte Eagles	W 1-0	1544.52	1543.00	29.71%	23.75%	46.54%	+10.43	37
2011-08-12	@ Orlando City SC	L 0-4	1554.95	1600.54	24.66%	22.42%	52.92%	-22.11	37
2011-04-17	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-1	1500.00	1500.00	29.53%	23.72%	46.75%	+9.86	3
2011-05-01	Antigua Barracuda FC	L 0-1	1509.86	1490.14	49.46%	23.23%	27.31%	-10.94	3
2011-05-12	Charlotte Eagles	W 2-1	1498.92	1472.47	50.37%	23.04%	26.60%	+6.25	6
2011-05-14	Charlotte Eagles	L 1-2	1505.17	1466.22	52.04%	22.65%	25.31%	-10.75	6
2011-05-20	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	T 1-1	1494.42	1424.93	38.70%	24.41%	36.89%	-0.08	7
2011-05-22	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 3-0	1494.34	1497.02	29.22%	23.66%	47.12%	+28.83	10
2011-06-24	Harrisburg City Islanders	T 1-1	1523.17	1514.76	47.91%	23.52%	28.56%	-0.93	11
2011-06-26	Harrisburg City Islanders	L 1-2	1522.24	1515.69	47.66%	23.57%	28.78%	-10.02	11
2011-07-01	@ Charleston Battery	T 0-0	1512.22	1491.80	32.01%	24.09%	43.90%	+0.63	12
2011-07-02	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 2-4	1512.85	1494.96	31.69%	24.05%	44.25%	-11.27	12
2011-07-15	Dayton Dutch Lions	T 1-1	1501.58	1384.20	61.95%	19.41%	18.63%	-2.19	13
2011-07-17	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 4-1	1499.39	1386.39	61.43%	19.62%	18.95%	+10.90	16
2011-07-22	@ Richmond Kickers	W 2-1	1510.29	1565.72	23.72%	22.07%	54.21%	+11.11	19
2011-07-23	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	T 1-1	1521.40	1553.14	26.04%	22.88%	51.08%	+1.22	20
2011-07-29	Antigua Barracuda FC	L 1-2	1522.62	1408.79	61.53%	19.58%	18.89%	-12.28	20
2011-07-31	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-1	1510.34	1421.08	58.52%	20.70%	20.78%	+4.91	23
2011-08-02	Antigua Barracuda FC	T 1-1	1515.25	1416.16	59.73%	20.26%	20.00%	-2.00	24
2011-08-05	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-2	1513.25	1563.81	24.18%	22.25%	53.57%	-5.72	24
2011-08-07	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	L 0-3	1507.53	1418.16	41.55%	24.29%	34.16%	-26.11	24
2011-08-12	Richmond Kickers	T 0-0	1481.42	1567.37	34.62%	24.32%	41.06%	+0.34	25
2011-08-14	Richmond Kickers	T 0-0	1481.76	1567.04	34.71%	24.33%	40.96%	+0.32	26
2011-04-02	@ Richmond Kickers	L 0-2	1500.00	1500.00	29.53%	23.72%	46.75%	-13.71	0
2011-04-09	FC New York	W 3-0	1486.29	1500.00	44.84%	23.98%	31.18%	+20.85	3
2011-04-16	@ Charlotte Eagles	W 1-0	1507.14	1492.73	31.26%	24.00%	44.74%	+10.10	6
2011-04-30	@ FC New York	W 2-1	1517.24	1480.12	34.18%	24.29%	41.53%	+8.99	9
2011-05-07	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	W 1-0	1526.23	1433.03	42.09%	24.26%	33.65%	+8.10	12
2011-05-14	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 1-0	1534.33	1490.09	52.74%	22.47%	24.79%	+6.21	15
2011-05-20	@ Rochester Rhinos	T 0-0	1540.54	1509.84	33.33%	24.23%	42.44%	+0.48	16
2011-05-22	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	W 3-1	1541.02	1500.95	34.57%	24.32%	41.11%	+15.44	19
2011-05-25	Richmond Kickers	W 2-0	1556.46	1577.26	43.84%	24.10%	32.06%	+14.69	22
2011-06-02	Charlotte Eagles	T 0-0	1571.15	1491.11	57.36%	21.09%	21.54%	-2.00	23
2011-06-04	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	W 4-2	1569.15	1542.43	32.81%	24.18%	43.01%	+14.31	26
2011-06-10	Antigua Barracuda FC	L 1-2	1583.46	1463.57	62.25%	19.29%	18.45%	-12.40	26
2011-06-18	Wilmington Hammerheads	T 1-1	1571.06	1514.10	54.41%	22.01%	23.58%	-1.53	27
2011-06-24	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 3-1	1569.53	1475.97	42.14%	24.25%	33.60%	+13.22	30
2011-06-26	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-1	1582.75	1462.75	45.87%	23.85%	30.28%	+7.01	33
2011-07-01	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 0-0	1589.76	1433.34	50.85%	22.93%	26.22%	-1.35	34
2011-07-03	@ Rochester Rhinos	W 1-0	1588.41	1552.25	34.05%	24.29%	41.66%	+9.56	37
2011-07-08	Dayton Dutch Lions	T 0-0	1597.97	1378.76	73.17%	14.32%	12.51%	-3.44	38
2011-07-09	@ Charleston Battery	L 0-1	1594.53	1491.17	43.53%	24.13%	32.34%	-9.88	38
2011-07-16	Rochester Rhinos	W 2-1	1584.65	1551.63	51.25%	22.84%	25.91%	+6.10	41
2011-08-03	Charleston Battery	W 1-0	1590.75	1498.51	58.89%	20.57%	20.54%	+5.14	44
2011-08-06	Charleston Battery	W 2-1	1595.89	1493.37	60.16%	20.11%	19.74%	+4.65	47
2011-08-12	Harrisburg City Islanders	W 4-0	1600.54	1554.95	52.92%	22.42%	24.66%	+22.11	50
2011-04-09	@ Richmond Kickers	L 1-2	1500.00	1513.71	27.97%	23.39%	48.64%	-6.54	0
2011-04-23	Harrisburg City Islanders	W 1-0	1493.46	1500.00	45.84%	23.85%	30.31%	+7.43	3
2011-04-29	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-3	1500.89	1507.11	28.81%	23.58%	47.61%	-11.62	3
2011-04-30	@ Charleston Battery	T 0-0	1489.27	1519.53	26.20%	22.92%	50.88%	+1.34	4
2011-05-06	Charleston Battery	T 0-0	1490.61	1518.19	42.89%	24.19%	32.92%	-0.52	5
2011-05-14	@ Orlando City SC	L 0-1	1490.09	1534.33	24.79%	22.47%	52.74%	-6.21	5
2011-05-21	FC New York	W 2-0	1483.88	1471.38	48.47%	23.42%	28.11%	+13.14	8
2011-05-22	Los Angeles Blues	L 0-3	1497.02	1494.34	47.12%	23.66%	29.22%	-28.84	8
2011-05-28	Wilmington Hammerheads	T 0-0	1468.18	1542.60	36.20%	24.39%	39.41%	+0.17	9
2011-05-31	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 2-4	1468.35	1478.76	28.34%	23.47%	48.19%	-10.25	9
2011-06-04	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	L 1-2	1458.10	1425.05	33.64%	24.25%	42.11%	-7.64	9
2011-06-10	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 1-3	1450.46	1528.12	21.74%	21.19%	57.06%	-8.91	9
2011-06-17	Rochester Rhinos	L 0-3	1441.55	1517.57	35.98%	24.39%	39.64%	-23.39	9
2011-06-24	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 0-2	1418.16	1524.74	19.43%	19.92%	60.65%	-9.14	9
2011-06-25	@ Charleston Battery	W 2-0	1409.02	1516.11	19.39%	19.90%	60.71%	+24.32	12
2011-07-01	Orlando City SC	T 0-0	1433.34	1589.76	26.22%	22.93%	50.85%	+1.34	13
2011-07-03	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-0	1434.68	1442.63	45.65%	23.88%	30.47%	+14.08	16
2011-07-09	FC New York	W 2-1	1448.76	1456.70	45.65%	23.88%	30.47%	+7.04	19
2011-07-16	@ FC New York	T 1-1	1455.80	1449.66	30.26%	23.84%	45.90%	+0.75	20
2011-07-20	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 3-1	1456.55	1375.48	57.49%	21.05%	21.46%	+8.79	23
2011-07-22	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 0-3	1465.34	1545.53	21.53%	21.09%	57.38%	-14.80	23
2011-07-30	Richmond Kickers	W 2-0	1450.54	1554.61	32.25%	24.12%	43.63%	+18.68	26
2011-08-06	Charlotte Eagles	T 2-2	1469.22	1543.10	36.27%	24.39%	39.33%	+0.11	27
2011-08-13	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 0-1	1469.33	1527.15	23.50%	21.98%	54.52%	-5.90	27
2011-04-02	Orlando City SC	W 2-0	1500.00	1500.00	46.75%	23.72%	29.53%	+13.71	3
2011-04-09	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 2-1	1513.71	1500.00	48.64%	23.39%	27.97%	+6.54	6
2011-04-15	Rochester Rhinos	W 1-0	1520.25	1500.00	49.53%	23.21%	27.26%	+6.78	9
2011-04-23	Charleston Battery	W 2-1	1527.03	1516.97	48.14%	23.48%	28.38%	+6.62	12
2011-04-30	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	W 6-0	1533.65	1480.86	36.32%	24.40%	39.28%	+47.83	15
2011-05-07	Wilmington Hammerheads	W 2-1	1581.48	1518.73	55.16%	21.79%	23.05%	+5.46	18
2011-05-14	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	T 1-1	1586.94	1500.64	41.11%	24.32%	34.57%	-0.31	19
2011-05-24	@ Charleston Battery	L 1-2	1586.63	1481.14	43.83%	24.10%	32.07%	-9.37	19
2011-05-25	@ Orlando City SC	L 0-2	1577.26	1556.46	32.06%	24.10%	43.84%	-14.69	19
2011-05-28	FC New York	T 2-2	1562.57	1458.25	60.38%	20.02%	19.60%	-1.53	20
2011-06-12	@ FC New York	W 2-0	1561.04	1484.12	39.77%	24.38%	35.85%	+16.06	23
2011-06-17	Harrisburg City Islanders	L 0-1	1577.10	1502.55	56.67%	21.32%	22.01%	-12.21	23
2011-06-24	@ FC New York	T 0-0	1564.89	1468.07	42.61%	24.21%	33.18%	-0.49	24
2011-07-01	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 1-2	1564.40	1544.94	31.89%	24.08%	44.03%	-7.32	24
2011-07-04	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 3-1	1557.08	1384.70	68.26%	16.69%	15.05%	+5.94	27
2011-07-08	Charlotte Eagles	L 1-2	1563.02	1523.19	52.16%	22.62%	25.23%	-10.77	27
2011-07-09	@ Charlotte Eagles	W 2-1	1552.25	1533.96	31.74%	24.06%	44.20%	+9.43	30
2011-07-16	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 1-0	1561.68	1412.83	65.63%	17.87%	16.49%	+4.04	33
2011-07-22	Los Angeles Blues	L 1-2	1565.72	1510.29	54.21%	22.07%	23.72%	-11.11	33
2011-07-30	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	L 0-2	1554.61	1450.54	43.63%	24.12%	32.25%	-18.68	33
2011-08-06	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 3-0	1535.93	1378.68	66.58%	17.45%	15.97%	+10.66	36
2011-08-10	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	W 2-0	1546.59	1569.53	26.97%	23.14%	49.89%	+20.78	39
2011-08-12	@ Los Angeles Blues	T 0-0	1567.37	1481.42	41.06%	24.32%	34.62%	-0.33	40
2011-08-14	@ Los Angeles Blues	T 0-0	1567.04	1481.76	40.96%	24.33%	34.71%	-0.33	41
2011-04-15	@ Richmond Kickers	L 0-1	1500.00	1520.25	27.26%	23.21%	49.53%	-6.78	0
2011-04-17	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	L 0-1	1493.22	1500.00	28.75%	23.56%	47.69%	-7.10	0
2011-04-23	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	W 3-2	1486.12	1490.31	29.05%	23.62%	47.33%	+9.45	3
2011-05-07	Charleston Battery	W 1-0	1495.57	1518.71	43.51%	24.13%	32.36%	+7.85	6
2011-05-10	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 0-1	1503.42	1493.11	30.76%	23.92%	45.32%	-7.53	6
2011-05-14	Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-0	1495.89	1501.08	46.03%	23.83%	30.14%	+13.95	9
2011-05-20	Orlando City SC	T 0-0	1509.84	1540.54	42.44%	24.23%	33.33%	-0.47	10
2011-05-27	Wilmington Hammerheads	T 1-1	1509.37	1542.20	42.14%	24.25%	33.61%	-0.40	11
2011-05-30	@ FC New York	L 1-2	1508.97	1459.78	35.82%	24.38%	39.80%	-8.03	11
2011-06-03	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 2-1	1500.94	1472.94	32.98%	24.20%	42.82%	+9.21	14
2011-06-05	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	T 2-2	1510.15	1463.73	35.43%	24.37%	40.20%	+0.16	15
2011-06-11	Harrisburg City Islanders	W 1-0	1510.31	1509.81	46.82%	23.71%	29.47%	+7.26	18
2011-06-17	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 3-0	1517.57	1441.55	39.64%	24.39%	35.98%	+23.39	21
2011-06-25	Dayton Dutch Lions	W 1-0	1540.96	1388.68	66.02%	17.70%	16.28%	+3.98	24
2011-07-01	Richmond Kickers	W 2-1	1544.94	1564.40	44.03%	24.08%	31.89%	+7.31	27
2011-07-03	Orlando City SC	L 0-1	1552.25	1588.41	41.66%	24.29%	34.05%	-9.55	27
2011-07-08	FC New York	W 3-1	1542.70	1465.63	56.99%	21.22%	21.79%	+8.93	30
2011-07-16	@ Orlando City SC	L 1-2	1551.63	1584.65	25.91%	22.84%	51.25%	-6.10	30
2011-07-22	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 3-0	1545.53	1465.34	57.38%	21.09%	21.53%	+14.79	33
2011-07-29	@ Charlotte Eagles	T 2-2	1560.32	1510.75	35.87%	24.38%	39.75%	+0.14	34
2011-07-30	@ Charleston Battery	W 1-0	1560.46	1507.65	36.32%	24.40%	39.28%	+9.13	37
2011-08-05	Charlotte Eagles	L 0-3	1569.59	1510.62	54.67%	21.94%	23.39%	-32.49	37
2011-08-07	@ FC New York	L 1-2	1537.10	1406.95	47.28%	23.63%	29.09%	-9.95	37
2011-08-13	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 1-0	1527.15	1469.33	54.52%	21.98%	23.50%	+5.90	40
2011-04-17	Rochester Rhinos	W 1-0	1500.00	1493.22	47.69%	23.56%	28.75%	+7.11	3
2011-04-29	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 3-1	1507.11	1500.89	47.61%	23.58%	28.81%	+11.62	6
2011-05-07	@ Richmond Kickers	L 1-2	1518.73	1581.48	23.05%	21.79%	55.16%	-5.45	6
2011-05-14	FC New York	W 3-1	1513.28	1482.02	51.01%	22.89%	26.09%	+10.63	9
2011-05-21	Charleston Battery	W 3-0	1523.91	1499.43	50.10%	23.09%	26.80%	+18.29	12
2011-05-27	@ Rochester Rhinos	T 1-1	1542.20	1509.37	33.61%	24.25%	42.14%	+0.40	13
2011-05-28	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	T 0-0	1542.60	1468.18	39.41%	24.39%	36.20%	-0.17	14
2011-06-04	Orlando City SC	L 2-4	1542.43	1569.15	43.01%	24.18%	32.81%	-14.31	14
2011-06-10	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 3-1	1528.12	1450.46	57.06%	21.19%	21.74%	+8.92	17
2011-06-11	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 0-3	1537.04	1493.11	35.09%	24.35%	40.56%	-22.94	17
2011-06-18	@ Orlando City SC	T 1-1	1514.10	1571.06	23.58%	22.01%	54.41%	+1.52	18
2011-06-24	Charleston Battery	L 0-2	1515.62	1495.46	49.52%	23.22%	27.27%	-20.66	18
2011-07-02	Los Angeles Blues	W 4-2	1494.96	1512.85	44.25%	24.05%	31.69%	+11.28	21
2011-07-08	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 1-0	1506.24	1428.54	39.88%	24.38%	35.74%	+8.49	24
2011-07-10	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	W 3-2	1514.73	1420.04	42.30%	24.24%	33.46%	+7.22	27
2011-07-14	@ Charleston Battery	L 1-2	1521.95	1501.06	32.07%	24.10%	43.83%	-7.35	27
2011-07-16	Harrisburg City Islanders	W 3-1	1514.60	1550.94	41.64%	24.29%	34.07%	+13.36	30
2011-07-22	@ Charlotte Eagles	L 0-1	1527.96	1524.03	29.99%	23.80%	46.21%	-7.37	30
2011-07-23	Charlotte Eagles	W 3-0	1520.59	1531.40	45.25%	23.93%	30.82%	+20.65	33
2011-07-29	@ FC New York	W 3-1	1541.24	1433.35	44.17%	24.06%	31.77%	+12.63	36
2011-07-30	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	W 2-1	1553.87	1557.19	29.15%	23.64%	47.21%	+9.94	39
2011-08-05	Los Angeles Blues	W 2-1	1563.81	1513.25	53.57%	22.25%	24.18%	+5.72	42
2011-08-10	Richmond Kickers	L 0-2	1569.53	1546.59	49.89%	23.14%	26.97%	-20.78	42
2011-08-13	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	W 2-1	1548.75	1327.31	59.24%	20.44%	20.32%	+4.79	45

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2011-08-20	@ Orlando City SC	L 1-3	1496.03	1622.65	25.11%	0.00%	74.89%	-7.27	0-1
2011-08-19	Los Angeles Blues	W 3-1	1532.84	1482.08	65.83%	0.00%	34.17%	+9.90	1-0
2011-08-26	@ Rochester Rhinos	W 2-1	1542.74	1553.20	39.56%	0.00%	60.44%	+10.10	2-0
2011-09-03	@ Orlando City SC	T 2-2	1552.84	1645.79	28.93%	0.00%	71.07%	+1.44	2-0
2011-08-19	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	L 1-3	1482.08	1532.84	34.17%	0.00%	65.83%	-9.89	0-1
2011-08-20	Charleston Battery	W 3-1	1622.65	1496.03	74.89%	0.00%	25.11%	+7.27	1-0
2011-08-27	Richmond Kickers	W 3-0	1629.92	1567.45	67.33%	0.00%	32.67%	+15.87	2-0
2011-09-03	Harrisburg City Islanders	T 2-2	1645.79	1552.84	71.07%	0.00%	28.93%	-1.44	2-0
2011-08-19	@ Rochester Rhinos	L 0-4	1463.43	1533.05	31.77%	0.00%	68.23%	-20.16	0-1
2011-08-19	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	T 0-0	1566.71	1553.54	42.85%	0.00%	57.15%	+0.74	0-0
2011-08-27	@ Orlando City SC	L 0-3	1567.45	1629.92	32.67%	0.00%	67.33%	-15.87	0-1
2011-08-19	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	W 4-0	1533.05	1463.43	68.23%	0.00%	31.77%	+20.15	1-0
2011-08-26	Harrisburg City Islanders	L 1-2	1553.20	1542.74	60.44%	0.00%	39.56%	-10.10	1-1
2011-08-19	Richmond Kickers	T 0-0	1553.54	1566.71	57.15%	0.00%	42.85%	-0.73	0-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2011-06-10	18.45%	Antigua Barracuda FC	1463.57	2	@ Orlando City SC	1583.46	1
2	2011-07-29	18.89%	Antigua Barracuda FC	1408.79	2	@ Los Angeles Blues	1522.62	1
3	2011-06-25	19.39%	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1409.02	2	@ Charleston Battery	1516.11	0
4	2011-06-17	22.01%	Harrisburg City Islanders	1502.55	1	@ Richmond Kickers	1577.10	0
5	2011-08-05	23.39%	Charlotte Eagles	1510.62	3	@ Rochester Rhinos	1569.59	0
6	2011-07-22	23.72%	Los Angeles Blues	1510.29	2	@ Richmond Kickers	1565.72	1
7	2011-05-13	25.18%	FC New York	1470.59	1	@ Charleston Battery	1510.86	0
8	2011-07-08	25.23%	Charlotte Eagles	1523.19	2	@ Richmond Kickers	1563.02	1
9	2011-05-14	25.31%	Charlotte Eagles	1466.22	2	@ Los Angeles Blues	1505.17	1
10	2011-08-10	26.97%	Richmond Kickers	1546.59	2	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	1569.53	0
11	2011-06-24	27.27%	Charleston Battery	1495.46	2	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	1515.62	0
12	2011-05-01	27.31%	Antigua Barracuda FC	1490.14	1	@ Los Angeles Blues	1509.86	0
13	2011-06-26	28.78%	Harrisburg City Islanders	1515.69	2	@ Los Angeles Blues	1522.24	1
14	2011-04-23	29.05%	Rochester Rhinos	1486.12	3	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	1490.31	2
15	2011-08-07	29.09%	@ FC New York	1406.95	2	Rochester Rhinos	1537.10	1
16	2011-07-30	29.15%	Wilmington Hammerheads	1553.87	2	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	1557.19	1
17	2011-05-22	29.22%	Los Angeles Blues	1494.34	3	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1497.02	0
18	2011-04-17	29.53%	Los Angeles Blues	1500.00	2	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	1500.00	1
19	2011-08-10	29.71%	Harrisburg City Islanders	1544.52	1	@ Charlotte Eagles	1543.00	0
20	2011-04-16	30.39%	Charleston Battery	1507.27	2	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	1500.00	1
21	2011-04-16	31.26%	Orlando City SC	1507.14	1	@ Charlotte Eagles	1492.73	0
22	2011-07-09	31.74%	Richmond Kickers	1552.25	2	@ Charlotte Eagles	1533.96	1
23	2011-05-24	32.07%	@ Charleston Battery	1481.14	2	Richmond Kickers	1586.63	1
24	2011-07-30	32.25%	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1450.54	2	Richmond Kickers	1554.61	0
25	2011-07-09	32.34%	@ Charleston Battery	1491.17	1	Orlando City SC	1594.53	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2011-04-30	47.83	Richmond Kickers	6	1533.65	36.32%	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	0	1480.86	39.28%	24.40%
2	2011-08-10	40.71	FC New York	5	1416.90	35.77%	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	0	1368.02	39.85%	24.38%
3	2011-08-05	32.49	Charlotte Eagles	3	1510.62	23.39%	@ Rochester Rhinos	0	1569.59	54.67%	21.94%
4	2011-05-22	28.84	Los Angeles Blues	3	1494.34	29.22%	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0	1497.02	47.12%	23.66%
5	2011-07-02	26.75	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	4	1525.70	45.61%	Charlotte Eagles	0	1533.88	30.50%	23.88%
6	2011-08-07	26.11	@ Antigua Barracuda FC	3	1418.16	34.16%	Los Angeles Blues	0	1507.53	41.55%	24.29%
7	2011-06-25	24.32	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	2	1409.02	19.39%	@ Charleston Battery	0	1516.11	60.71%	19.90%
8	2011-06-17	23.39	Rochester Rhinos	3	1517.57	39.64%	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0	1441.55	35.98%	24.39%
9	2011-06-11	22.94	@ Charlotte Eagles	3	1493.11	40.56%	Wilmington Hammerheads	0	1537.04	35.09%	24.35%
10	2011-08-12	22.11	@ Orlando City SC	4	1600.54	52.92%	Harrisburg City Islanders	0	1554.95	24.66%	22.42%
11	2011-04-09	20.85	@ Orlando City SC	3	1486.29	44.84%	FC New York	0	1500.00	31.18%	23.98%
12	2011-08-10	20.78	Richmond Kickers	2	1546.59	26.97%	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	0	1569.53	49.89%	23.14%
13	2011-06-24	20.66	Charleston Battery	2	1495.46	27.27%	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	0	1515.62	49.52%	23.22%
14	2011-07-23	20.65	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	3	1520.59	45.25%	Charlotte Eagles	0	1531.40	30.82%	23.93%
15	2011-08-19 *	20.16	@ Rochester Rhinos	4	1533.05	68.23%	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0	1463.43	31.77%	0.00%
16	2011-07-30	18.68	@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds	2	1450.54	32.25%	Richmond Kickers	0	1554.61	43.63%	24.12%
17	2011-05-21	18.29	@ Wilmington Hammerheads	3	1523.91	50.10%	Charleston Battery	0	1499.43	26.80%	23.09%
18	2011-06-10	16.77	@ FC New York	3	1467.36	53.23%	Dayton Dutch Lions	0	1419.38	24.43%	22.34%
19	2011-07-31	16.50	@ Dayton Dutch Lions	2	1362.18	38.46%	FC New York	0	1420.72	37.13%	24.41%
20	2011-06-12	16.06	Richmond Kickers	2	1561.04	39.77%	@ FC New York	0	1484.12	35.85%	24.38%
21	2011-07-04	16.05	Charlotte Eagles	3	1507.14	32.65%	@ FC New York	1	1481.68	43.18%	24.16%
22	2011-08-27 *	15.87	@ Orlando City SC	3	1629.92	67.33%	Richmond Kickers	0	1567.45	32.67%	0.00%
23	2011-07-20	15.57	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	5	1537.57	58.44%	FC New York	1	1448.91	20.83%	20.72%
24	2011-05-22	15.45	Orlando City SC	3	1541.02	34.57%	@ Harrisburg City Islanders	1	1500.95	41.11%	24.32%
25	2011-07-22	14.80	@ Rochester Rhinos	3	1545.53	57.38%	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0	1465.34	21.53%	21.09%