Home / Leagues / USL / 2014

2014 USL Season

182 regular-season games

Final

Season Status

In Progress

Awaiting final results

Title Favorite

Orlando City SC

27.58% chance to win USL Championship

Biggest Overachiever

Sacramento Republic

10.02 points above expected

49 points · 38.98 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Orange County Blues FC

8.74 points below expected

25 points · 33.74 expected points

Final Standings

Final regular season records. The vsSim column shows actual points minus the simulation's mean points - positive values indicate the team overachieved, negative values mean they underperformed.

# Team W L T Pts Pt% GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Orlando City SC 17 4 5 56 .718 51 21 +30 46.91 +9.09
2 Richmond Kickers 13 3 10 49 .628 53 28 +25 46.08 +2.92
3 Sacramento Republic 15 7 4 49 .628 42 24 +18 38.98 +10.02
4 Los Angeles Galaxy II 13 7 6 45 .577 52 38 +14 39.21 +5.79
5 Charleston Battery 10 9 7 37 .474 34 30 +4 38.99 -1.99
6 Wilmington Hammerheads 9 7 10 37 .474 33 30 +3 33.98 +3.02
7 Arizona United SC 10 11 5 35 .449 31 38 -7 29.95 +5.05
8 Harrisburg City Islanders 9 10 7 34 .436 42 44 -2 35.42 -1.42
9 Rochester Rhinos 8 10 8 32 .410 24 25 -1 31.67 +0.33
10 Charlotte Eagles 9 14 3 30 .385 30 36 -6 34.40 -4.40
11 OKC Energy FC 8 13 5 29 .372 31 36 -5 36.18 -7.18
12 Pittsburgh Riverhounds 7 14 5 26 .333 27 46 -19 29.91 -3.91
13 Orange County Blues FC 8 17 1 25 .321 29 52 -23 33.74 -8.74
14 Dayton Dutch Lions 6 16 4 22 .282 27 58 -31 29.99 -7.99

Playoff Bracket

Season Summary

Every team's regular season finish compared against the simulated win totals. Click on any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual total minus the simulation's mean. Positive values indicate the team outperformed the expected total; negative values indicate the team was unluckier than expected. Percentile represents where their actual result fell in the simulated distribution.

Team Conference Division Elo Points Avg. Pts. Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Orlando City SC 1630 56 46.91 +9.09 92.66% 17 36 42 47 51 58 74
Richmond Kickers 1614 49 46.08 +2.92 69.33% 15 35 42 46 51 57 72
Sacramento Republic 1560 49 38.98 +10.02 94.15% 11 28 34 39 44 50 68
Los Angeles Galaxy II 1540 45 39.21 +5.79 82.41% 11 28 35 39 44 50 68
Charleston Battery 1540 37 38.99 -1.99 41.24% 13 28 34 39 44 50 66
Harrisburg City Islanders 1501 34 35.42 -1.42 45.05% 10 25 31 35 40 47 66
Wilmington Hammerheads 1498 37 33.98 +3.02 70.43% 6 23 29 34 38 45 63
OKC Energy FC 1483 29 36.18 -7.18 16.01% 10 25 32 36 41 47 65
Charlotte Eagles 1481 30 34.40 -4.40 28.24% 7 24 30 34 39 45 62
Rochester Rhinos 1468 32 31.67 +0.33 55.74% 6 21 27 32 36 43 58
Arizona United SC 1456 35 29.95 +5.05 80.26% 4 19 25 30 34 41 57
Orange County Blues FC 1420 25 33.74 -8.74 10.67% 6 23 29 34 38 45 62
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1418 26 29.91 -3.91 30.60% 3 19 25 30 34 41 58
Dayton Dutch Lions 1390 22 29.99 -7.99 12.53% 4 19 26 30 34 41 58

Head-to-Head

Cells show the number of points earned against each opponent with the expected points from the simulation below. Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than one point.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team SC Battery Eagles Lions Islanders II FC FC SC Riverhounds Kickers Rhinos Republic Hammerheads
Arizona United SC
0
(1.0 exp.)
3
(1.3 exp.)
0
(1.5 exp.)
3
(1.1 exp.)
2
(4.3 exp.)
7
(4.6 exp.)
6
(4.8 exp.)
0
(1.0 exp.)
6
(2.9 exp.)
0
(0.9 exp.)
3
(1.3 exp.)
4
(4.3 exp.)
1
(1.0 exp.)
Charleston Battery
3
(1.8 exp.)
1
(3.2 exp.)
4
(3.4 exp.)
6
(4.5 exp.)
3
(1.5 exp.)
3
(1.4 exp.)
3
(1.8 exp.)
1
(3.5 exp.)
7
(5.3 exp.)
2
(3.4 exp.)
4
(4.8 exp.)
0
(1.2 exp.)
0
(3.3 exp.)
Charlotte Eagles
0
(1.5 exp.)
4
(2.4 exp.)
3
(4.8 exp.)
1
(2.8 exp.)
0
(1.2 exp.)
1
(1.6 exp.)
3
(2.9 exp.)
3
(2.7 exp.)
0
(3.3 exp.)
3
(2.9 exp.)
6
(2.9 exp.)
0
(1.4 exp.)
6
(4.1 exp.)
Dayton Dutch Lions
3
(1.3 exp.)
1
(2.1 exp.)
6
(3.5 exp.)
3
(4.8 exp.)
1
(2.2 exp.)
0
(1.2 exp.)
0
(1.1 exp.)
0
(1.5 exp.)
3
(2.8 exp.)
1
(1.8 exp.)
1
(4.3 exp.)
0
(1.3 exp.)
3
(2.1 exp.)
Harrisburg City Islanders
0
(1.7 exp.)
3
(3.8 exp.)
4
(2.7 exp.)
9
(6.3 exp.)
3
(1.3 exp.)
1
(1.5 exp.)
0
(1.3 exp.)
3
(1.9 exp.)
5
(4.6 exp.)
0
(2.8 exp.)
1
(3.3 exp.)
3
(1.2 exp.)
2
(2.9 exp.)
Los Angeles Galaxy II
8
(6.9 exp.)
0
(1.3 exp.)
3
(1.6 exp.)
4
(3.4 exp.)
0
(1.5 exp.)
12
(5.8 exp.)
12
(5.8 exp.)
0
(0.9 exp.)
0
(1.7 exp.)
1
(1.2 exp.)
0
(1.8 exp.)
4
(5.6 exp.)
1
(1.7 exp.)
OKC Energy FC
4
(6.5 exp.)
0
(1.4 exp.)
1
(1.2 exp.)
3
(1.6 exp.)
1
(1.2 exp.)
0
(5.2 exp.)
9
(6.2 exp.)
0
(2.3 exp.)
3
(1.7 exp.)
0
(1.2 exp.)
1
(1.6 exp.)
6
(4.9 exp.)
1
(1.1 exp.)
Orange County Blues FC
6
(6.3 exp.)
0
(1.0 exp.)
3
(2.7 exp.)
3
(1.6 exp.)
3
(1.4 exp.)
0
(5.3 exp.)
3
(4.9 exp.)
0
(0.8 exp.)
0
(1.3 exp.)
1
(0.8 exp.)
3
(1.2 exp.)
3
(5.0 exp.)
0
(1.3 exp.)
Orlando City SC
3
(1.8 exp.)
7
(4.9 exp.)
6
(5.7 exp.)
6
(4.2 exp.)
3
(3.7 exp.)
3
(1.9 exp.)
6
(3.3 exp.)
3
(2.0 exp.)
4
(3.7 exp.)
6
(2.8 exp.)
4
(5.7 exp.)
1
(1.8 exp.)
4
(5.6 exp.)
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
0
(2.6 exp.)
1
(3.1 exp.)
6
(2.3 exp.)
3
(2.7 exp.)
2
(3.7 exp.)
3
(1.0 exp.)
0
(1.0 exp.)
3
(1.4 exp.)
1
(1.9 exp.)
1
(2.7 exp.)
6
(3.9 exp.)
0
(1.0 exp.)
0
(2.5 exp.)
Richmond Kickers
3
(1.9 exp.)
5
(4.9 exp.)
6
(5.4 exp.)
4
(3.8 exp.)
9
(5.6 exp.)
1
(1.6 exp.)
3
(1.6 exp.)
1
(2.0 exp.)
0
(2.8 exp.)
7
(5.6 exp.)
2
(3.7 exp.)
3
(1.9 exp.)
5
(5.3 exp.)
Rochester Rhinos
0
(1.4 exp.)
4
(3.5 exp.)
0
(2.6 exp.)
7
(4.0 exp.)
4
(2.2 exp.)
3
(0.9 exp.)
1
(1.2 exp.)
0
(1.6 exp.)
4
(2.7 exp.)
3
(4.4 exp.)
2
(1.9 exp.)
0
(1.3 exp.)
4
(3.8 exp.)
Sacramento Republic
7
(6.8 exp.)
3
(1.6 exp.)
3
(1.3 exp.)
3
(1.5 exp.)
0
(1.6 exp.)
7
(5.5 exp.)
6
(6.2 exp.)
9
(6.1 exp.)
1
(1.0 exp.)
3
(1.8 exp.)
0
(0.9 exp.)
3
(1.4 exp.)
4
(3.3 exp.)
Wilmington Hammerheads
1
(1.7 exp.)
6
(2.3 exp.)
3
(4.2 exp.)
3
(3.4 exp.)
2
(2.6 exp.)
1
(1.1 exp.)
1
(1.6 exp.)
3
(1.5 exp.)
4
(2.8 exp.)
6
(3.0 exp.)
2
(3.1 exp.)
4
(4.5 exp.)
1
(2.2 exp.)

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's goals in the row and its opponent's goals in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%9.34%5.77%1.65%1.92%0.82%26.65%
19.34%10.44%7.97%5.22%1.65%1.10%35.71%
25.77%7.97%3.30%1.92%0.82%19.78%
31.65%5.22%1.92%1.10%0.55%0.27%10.71%
41.92%1.65%0.82%0.55%4.95%
5+0.82%1.10%0.27%2.20%
Total26.65%35.71%19.78%10.71%4.95%2.20%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.39 +0.00
SD 1.27 1.27 1.88
CV 0.92 0.92
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 182

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%7.69%7.69%7.69%26.92%
111.54%15.38%7.69%34.62%
219.23%7.69%3.85%30.77%
33.85%3.85%7.69%
4
5+
Total19.23%46.15%15.38%7.69%11.54%100%

Arizona United SC — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.46 -0.27
SD 0.94 1.24 1.66
CV 0.79 0.85
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%15.38%3.85%3.85%34.62%
13.85%7.69%7.69%3.85%23.08%
211.54%7.69%7.69%26.92%
33.85%3.85%7.69%
47.69%7.69%
5+
Total38.46%30.77%15.38%7.69%7.69%100%

Charleston Battery — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.15 +0.15
SD 1.26 1.26 1.97
CV 0.96 1.09
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%15.38%7.69%26.92%
13.85%7.69%15.38%7.69%3.85%38.46%
215.38%7.69%3.85%26.92%
37.69%7.69%
4
5+
Total23.08%38.46%23.08%7.69%7.69%100%

Charlotte Eagles — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.15 1.38 -0.23
SD 0.92 1.17 1.58
CV 0.80 0.84
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%11.54%3.85%3.85%3.85%30.77%
111.54%11.54%11.54%3.85%7.69%46.15%
27.69%3.85%11.54%
33.85%3.85%3.85%11.54%
4
5+
Total11.54%30.77%26.92%7.69%7.69%15.38%100%

Dayton Dutch Lions — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.04 2.23 -1.19
SD 0.96 1.80 2.04
CV 0.92 0.80
Max 3 7 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%11.54%3.85%26.92%
13.85%7.69%7.69%3.85%7.69%30.77%
23.85%3.85%3.85%11.54%
311.54%3.85%3.85%19.23%
43.85%3.85%7.69%
5+3.85%3.85%
Total15.38%38.46%19.23%15.38%11.54%100%

Harrisburg City Islanders — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.62 1.69 -0.08
SD 1.47 1.26 1.74
CV 0.91 0.74
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%11.54%
17.69%19.23%7.69%7.69%42.31%
27.69%7.69%
33.85%7.69%3.85%3.85%19.23%
43.85%7.69%11.54%
5+3.85%3.85%7.69%
Total19.23%38.46%19.23%23.08%100%

Los Angeles Galaxy II — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.46 +0.54
SD 1.52 1.07 2.16
CV 0.76 0.73
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%19.23%3.85%3.85%30.77%
17.69%7.69%11.54%3.85%3.85%34.62%
215.38%3.85%3.85%23.08%
33.85%3.85%7.69%
43.85%3.85%
5+
Total34.62%26.92%19.23%7.69%7.69%3.85%100%

OKC Energy FC — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.38 -0.19
SD 1.10 1.44 1.96
CV 0.92 1.04
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%7.69%7.69%3.85%30.77%
111.54%3.85%15.38%7.69%3.85%3.85%46.15%
23.85%3.85%3.85%11.54%
33.85%3.85%
43.85%3.85%7.69%
5+
Total15.38%23.08%26.92%23.08%7.69%3.85%100%

Orange County Blues FC — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 2.00 -0.88
SD 1.14 1.44 1.90
CV 1.02 0.72
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%3.85%3.85%15.38%
115.38%11.54%3.85%30.77%
211.54%3.85%3.85%19.23%
33.85%15.38%3.85%23.08%
47.69%7.69%
5+3.85%3.85%
Total42.31%42.31%7.69%7.69%100%

Orlando City SC — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.96 0.81 +1.15
SD 1.59 0.90 1.85
CV 0.81 1.11
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%15.38%3.85%3.85%3.85%34.62%
17.69%7.69%3.85%15.38%3.85%38.46%
27.69%3.85%3.85%15.38%
33.85%3.85%3.85%11.54%
4
5+
Total23.08%30.77%15.38%15.38%7.69%7.69%100%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.04 1.77 -0.73
SD 1.00 1.56 1.85
CV 0.96 0.88
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%3.85%7.69%
13.85%23.08%3.85%30.77%
23.85%11.54%11.54%3.85%30.77%
311.54%3.85%15.38%
47.69%3.85%11.54%
5+3.85%3.85%
Total19.23%57.69%19.23%3.85%100%

Richmond Kickers — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.04 1.08 +0.96
SD 1.28 0.74 1.51
CV 0.63 0.69
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.38%19.23%3.85%38.46%
115.38%11.54%3.85%7.69%38.46%
27.69%3.85%3.85%3.85%19.23%
3
43.85%3.85%
5+
Total38.46%38.46%11.54%11.54%100%

Rochester Rhinos — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.92 0.96 -0.04
SD 0.98 1.00 1.28
CV 1.06 1.04
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%7.69%15.38%
115.38%7.69%19.23%42.31%
23.85%23.08%26.92%
33.85%3.85%7.69%
4
5+3.85%3.85%7.69%
Total34.62%38.46%26.92%100%

Sacramento Republic — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.62 0.92 +0.69
SD 1.42 0.80 1.76
CV 0.88 0.86
Max 6 2 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
023.08%19.23%42.31%
111.54%3.85%3.85%3.85%23.08%
27.69%7.69%15.38%
33.85%3.85%7.69%
43.85%3.85%7.69%
5+3.85%3.85%
Total38.46%19.23%30.77%11.54%100%

Wilmington Hammerheads — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 1.15 +0.12
SD 1.48 1.08 1.63
CV 1.17 0.94
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.75 +8.8
Allowed 0.60 -7.2
Differential 0.94 +5.6

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Sacramento Republic 49 38.98 +10.02
2 Orlando City SC 56 46.91 +9.09
3 Los Angeles Galaxy II 45 39.21 +5.79
4 Arizona United SC 35 29.95 +5.05
5 Wilmington Hammerheads 37 33.98 +3.02

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Orange County Blues FC 25 33.74 -8.74
2 Dayton Dutch Lions 22 29.99 -7.99
3 OKC Energy FC 29 36.18 -7.18
4 Charlotte Eagles 30 34.40 -4.40
5 Pittsburgh Riverhounds 26 29.91 -3.91

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak. Unbeaten counts W or T consecutively; Winless counts L or T consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sacramento Republic 6 Jul 28 – Aug 28 1 in 82
2 Arizona United SC 4 Aug 15 – Sep 7 1 in 67
3 Wilmington Hammerheads 4 May 11 – Jun 1 1 in 65
4 Orlando City SC 7 May 18 – Jul 13 1 in 59
5 Harrisburg City Islanders 3 Jul 31 – Aug 10 1 in 22

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 OKC Energy FC 6 Aug 10 – Sep 5 1 in 313
2 Orange County Blues FC 6 Jul 8 – Aug 9 1 in 265
3 Dayton Dutch Lions 5 May 17 – Jun 9 1 in 58
4 Wilmington Hammerheads 4 Jul 27 – Aug 21 1 in 39
5 Pittsburgh Riverhounds 4 May 10 – May 25 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Richmond Kickers 19 Apr 20 – Aug 17 1 in 231
2 Orlando City SC 16 Mar 23 – Jul 18 1 in 123
3 Wilmington Hammerheads 8 May 4 – Jun 29 1 in 79
4 Sacramento Republic 10 Jul 15 – Sep 5 1 in 56
5 Rochester Rhinos 6 Apr 12 – May 18 1 in 50

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Richmond Kickers 5 Aug 17 – Sep 7 1 in 41
2 Pittsburgh Riverhounds 10 Mar 30 – Jun 2 1 in 36
3 Dayton Dutch Lions 8 Apr 27 – Jun 9 1 in 25
4 OKC Energy FC 7 Apr 27 – Jun 8 1 in 19
5 Orange County Blues FC 6 Jul 8 – Aug 9 1 in 17

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team1234567891011121314
Orlando City SC36.89%22.67%13.46%8.82%5.96%4.06%2.82%1.85%1.35%0.94%0.58%0.35%0.18%0.09%
Richmond Kickers31.56%22.95%14.51%9.67%6.66%4.67%3.30%2.29%1.67%1.10%0.73%0.50%0.26%0.12%
Los Angeles Galaxy II6.61%10.35%12.16%11.63%10.64%9.53%8.48%7.27%6.32%5.28%4.37%3.35%2.47%1.51%
Charleston Battery6.78%9.77%11.38%11.57%10.72%9.78%8.63%7.52%6.44%5.46%4.41%3.45%2.50%1.60%
Sacramento Republic6.11%9.99%11.68%11.57%10.83%9.55%8.54%7.53%6.50%5.48%4.48%3.50%2.67%1.58%
OKC Energy FC3.09%5.49%7.60%8.62%9.20%9.33%9.20%8.88%8.54%7.87%6.99%6.28%5.17%3.76%
Harrisburg City Islanders2.44%4.54%6.36%7.82%8.48%9.01%9.25%9.30%8.73%8.43%7.87%6.97%6.07%4.73%
Charlotte Eagles1.83%3.50%5.19%6.58%7.63%8.49%8.79%9.19%9.18%9.06%8.72%8.29%7.61%5.92%
Wilmington Hammerheads1.52%3.15%4.79%6.11%7.22%8.14%8.82%8.96%9.34%9.32%9.16%8.80%8.09%6.58%
Orange County Blues FC1.28%3.01%4.89%5.96%7.00%7.85%8.34%8.99%9.26%9.27%9.42%9.03%8.46%7.25%
Rochester Rhinos0.73%1.73%2.71%3.86%4.98%5.96%7.00%8.04%8.88%9.79%10.82%11.20%11.92%12.38%
Arizona United SC0.37%1.01%1.84%2.69%3.60%4.53%5.58%6.67%7.81%9.31%10.65%12.75%15.20%18.00%
Dayton Dutch Lions0.38%0.94%1.73%2.59%3.55%4.64%5.61%6.90%8.10%9.35%10.85%12.59%14.79%17.99%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds0.42%0.92%1.70%2.50%3.54%4.46%5.64%6.60%7.88%9.35%10.95%12.93%14.64%18.48%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 Seed5 Seed6 Seed7 Seed8 SeedMissed Playoffs
Orlando City SC36.89%22.67%13.46%8.82%5.96%4.06%2.82%1.85%3.48%
Richmond Kickers31.56%22.95%14.51%9.67%6.66%4.67%3.30%2.29%4.38%
Charleston Battery6.78%9.77%11.38%11.57%10.72%9.78%8.63%7.52%23.86%
Los Angeles Galaxy II6.61%10.35%12.16%11.63%10.64%9.53%8.48%7.27%23.32%
Sacramento Republic6.11%9.99%11.68%11.57%10.83%9.55%8.54%7.53%24.20%
OKC Energy FC3.09%5.49%7.60%8.62%9.20%9.33%9.20%8.88%38.59%
Harrisburg City Islanders2.44%4.54%6.36%7.82%8.48%9.01%9.25%9.30%42.80%
Charlotte Eagles1.83%3.50%5.19%6.58%7.63%8.49%8.79%9.19%48.79%
Wilmington Hammerheads1.52%3.15%4.79%6.11%7.22%8.14%8.82%8.96%51.28%
Orange County Blues FC1.28%3.01%4.89%5.96%7.00%7.85%8.34%8.99%52.68%
Rochester Rhinos0.73%1.73%2.71%3.86%4.98%5.96%7.00%8.04%64.99%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds0.42%0.92%1.70%2.50%3.54%4.46%5.64%6.60%74.22%
Dayton Dutch Lions0.38%0.94%1.73%2.59%3.55%4.64%5.61%6.90%73.67%
Arizona United SC0.37%1.01%1.84%2.69%3.60%4.53%5.58%6.67%73.72%

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Percentage of games won by the home team - percentage of games won by the away team
No Edge: under 2% · Slight Edge: 2% to 6% · Clear Edge: 6% to 10% · Fortress: 10% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points that 1 goal is worth. A team this many Elo ratings points better than another would be expected to defeat their opponent by 1 goal at a neutral location.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals - average away goals per game. The gold line represents the expected home goals edge according to the scoring value of a point of Elo and the number of Elo rating points home advantage is worth.
Road-Tilted: under -0.8 · Lean Road: -0.8 to 0 · Lean Home: 0 to 0.8 · Home-Tilted: 0.8 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+7.69%
Clear Edge
42.86%21.98%35.16%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 26.78 Elo pts.
114 Elo
0.009 goals per Elo point
0300
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.26 goals
Lean Home
-2+0.23+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of preseason title contenders. Calculated by taking 1 divided by the sum of squared preseason title odds. Higher numbers indicate more parity in the league while 1 indicates that the preseason favorite is a near-lock.
Front-Runner: under 2 · Few Contenders: 2 to 4 · Open Race: 4 to 8 · Wide Open: 8 and up.
Title-Race Openness
6.0
Open Race
124810

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Average standard deviation of the difference between each team's actual points total and their simulated average points total. The gold line is the standard deviation the model expected from random chance alone.
Subdued: under 5.31 · As Expected: 5.31 to 7.3 · Elevated: 7.3 to 9.95 · High Variance: 9.95 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap in the rank of the final standings between where each team finished in the standings and where the model projected them to finish.
Pinpoint: under 2.36 · Close: 2.36 to 3.2 · Off Target: 3.2 to 4.17 · Well Off Target: 4.17 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team whose record finished in the highest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the top team in a league of 14 teams typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team whose record finished in the lowest percentile within its own simulated range of outcomes. The gold line indicates where the bottom team in a league of 14 teams typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished either above the 95th percentile or below the 5th percentile. Even with a well-calibrated model, 10% of teams are expected to land in the extremes of their distributions.
Minimal Outliers: under 0.7 · As Expected: 0.7 to 1.68 · Several Outliers: 1.68 to 3.08 · Many Outliers: 3.08 and up.
Unexpected Playoff Teams
Number of teams that actually made the playoffs but were not in the model's projected field.The gold line represents how many playoff teams the simulation missed on average.
Fewer Than Expected: under 1.57 · As Expected: 1.57 to 2.62 · More Than Expected: 2.62 to 4.19 · Far More Than Expected: 4.19 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.93 points
As Expected
06.6317
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.29
Pinpoint
02.786
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.43%
94.15%
Sacramento Republic
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.57%
10.67%
Orange County Blues FC
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 14
Minimal Outliers
01.47
Unexpected Playoff Teams
Expected
2 of 8
As Expected
02.18

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
Measures how evenly points were distributed across the league. Lower scores indicate there was less variability across the actual point totals .Higher scores are an indication of more imbalance in the league with a few unusually strong or unusually weak teams.
Highly Balanced: under 0.08 · Balanced: 0.08 to 0.15 · Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.24 · Concentrated: 0.24 and up.
Noll-Scully
Measures how more times spread out the final standings were in reality compared to standings that were generated by flipping a coin for each game. The gold line at 1 indicates as much variability in the standings as s coin flip. Above it, talent gaps in team composition stretched the standings more than the variability produced by luck alone. Below it, the league was more competitive than coin flips alone would yield.
Compressed: under 0.9 · Coin-Flip Spread: 0.9 to 1.15 · Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.45 · Stratified: 1.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge
The probability that the team in the 75th percentile of the league's Elo ratings would defeat the team in the 25th percentile at a neutral site. The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league.
Even: under 58% · Competitive: 58% to 65% · Tilted: 65% to 73% · Lopsided: 73% and up.
Best vs. Worst
The probability that the team with the highest Elo rating would defeat the team with the lowest Elo rating at a neutral site.The higher the probability, the larger the gap between the top teams and bottom teams in the league. The gold line represents how high this probability is expected to be in a league of this size. A blue dot to the right indicates an unusually dominant team or an unusually weak team.
Tight: under 65% · Clear Edge: 65% to 78% · Lopsided: 78% to 88% · No Contest: 88% and up.
Close Games
Actual percentage of games decided by 1 goal or fewer. The gold line indicates the proportion of close games you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Mostly Decisive: under 25% · Some Drama: 25% to 38% · Often Close: 38% to 50% · Nail-Biters: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Actual percentage of games decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line indicates the proportion of blowouts you would expect after considering the Elo ratings of the involved teams and the scoring value of a single Elo point.
Rare: under 10% · Occasional: 10% to 20% · Frequent: 20% to 30% · Routine: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Top-Heavy
00.080.150.240.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.33
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
61%
Competitive
50%58%65%73%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
80%
Lopsided
50%81%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Nail-Biters
0%57%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Occasional
0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame win probabilities aligned with the actual game result, averaged over the entire season. Picks that were both confident and correct are rewarded the most, while incorrect predictions and/or uncertain predictions are penalized more. Lower scores are better. 0 indicates every game was perfectly predicted with maximum confidence. For sports with where wins and losses are the only outcomes, Brier scores less than 0.25 indicate the model did better than random predictions. For sports where ties are possible, 0.67 is the cutoff for which the Brier score must be lower to beat random predictions. The lower the Brier score, the easier and more accurately the games were to predict.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 · Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 · Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 · Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, calculated by averaging the difference in the win probabilities divided by the sum of the win probabilities. Lower scores indicate more parity in the league. 0 indicates that every game was a 50-50 toss-up between evenly matched teams. 1 means every game pitted a heavy favorite against a huge underdog.
Evenly Matched: under 0.12 · Slight Separation: 0.12 to 0.22 · Wide Gaps: 0.22 to 0.34 · Lopsided: 0.34 and up.
Strangeness
How extreme the actual final standings were compared to what the model expected. A value of 0 would indicate that the simulated results perfectly matched the actual standings. A score of 1 indicates that the actual results were scattered around the projections by exactly the variance the model predicted. (i.e. The projections missed the actual standings by 1 standard deviation on average. Scores larger than 1 mean the season was wilder to forecast with more overperforming and underperforming teams than expected. Scores less than 1 indicate the season was more predictable.
Tighter Than Modeled: under 0.85 · As Expected: 0.85 to 1.15 · Volatile: 1.15 to 1.5 · Chaotic: 1.5 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the order of the final standings aligned with the ranked preseason Elo ratings as calculated by the Spearman rank correlation. Larger values indicate that the preseason Elo ratings were a strong predictor of the team's final rank in the standings while values near 0 mean.
Reshuffled: under 0.3 · Weak Alignment: 0.3 to 0.6 · Strong Alignment: 0.6 to 0.85 · Closely Aligned: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality. The gold line measures how often the model expected the underdog to win when considering the outcome probabilities. A blue dot to the right of the gold line means upsets were more prevalent than left. A dot to the left indicates that favorites won more often than expected.
Chalk Held: under 30% · As Expected: 30% to 40% · Upset-Prone: 40% to 46% · Bedlam: 46% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
The percentage of the time the underdog won the game in reality, but only including games with a clear favorite, one at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside. This metrics ignores games that could be considered toss-ups. The gold line is how often the model expected these heavy favorites to lose. A dot to the right means the big favorites were upset more than expected; to the left means they took care of business.
Favorites Held: under 22% · As Expected: 22% to 32% · Shaky Favorites: 32% to 42% · Bedlam: 42% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Predictable
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.22
Slight Separation
00.120.220.340.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.80
Tighter Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.51
Weak Alignment
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
32%
As Expected
0%30%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Favorites Held
0%26%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Games are sorted into bins according to how confident the model was. Within each bin, the predicted number of wins, losses, and ties are compared against the actual counts. The p-value of this test is plotted below. Values above 0.05 indicate that the model's probabilities are well-calibrated for the season.
Clear Misfit: under 0.01 · Misfit: 0.01 to 0.05 · Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 · Well Calibrated: 0.1 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the model's probabilities is correct. Each probability is turned into their log-odds. A line is fit that predicts the actual results from the log-odds. The slope of this line is the calibration slope.A slope of 1.00 is perfect, indicating that the model's confidence matches the actual outcomes of the games. Slopes less than 1.00 indicate overconfidence. The model assigned higher probabilities to the favorites than was appropriate given the matchup, causing more losses by favored teams. Slopes greater than 1.00 indicate under-confidence. The model is more uncertain about too many results, assigning them lower probabilities when in reality the favorites should have had higher probabilities.
Overconfident: under 0.85 · Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 · Underconfident: 1.15 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
Calibration error (ECE) checks whether the model's probabilities mean what they say. ECE is calculated as the average weighted gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted outcome actually occurred. The smaller the ECE, the more confident we are about the model's probabilities. The gold line represents the noise ceiling, which is the amount of error that luck can produce on its own even if the probabilities are perfectly calibrated. Values below the noise ceiling indicate that the model's error is no larger than chance alone would produce. Values above the noice ceiling point to a genuine calibration issue since the error is larger than luck could explain.
Well Within Noise: under 0.06 · Within Noise: 0.06 to 0.12 · Above Noise: 0.12 to 0.24 · Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
0.24
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.11
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.38
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.062
Within Noise
00.1180.3

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual points, simulated final points, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces each team's game-by-game Elo rating through their playoff run. Net Elo Change summarizes the difference in Elo rating between the beginning and end of the playoffs for each team.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team Made Playoffs Advanced to Conference Finals Advanced to USL Championship Won USL Championship
Orlando City SC 96.52% 67.69% 44.07% 27.58%
Richmond Kickers 95.62% 65.16% 40.86% 24.10%
Sacramento Republic 75.80% 42.21% 21.72% 10.55%
Charleston Battery 76.14% 40.07% 19.26% 8.88%
Los Angeles Galaxy II 76.68% 40.39% 19.32% 8.81%
Harrisburg City Islanders 57.19% 24.95% 10.50% 4.17%
OKC Energy FC 61.41% 25.77% 10.22% 3.90%
Wilmington Hammerheads 48.72% 20.85% 8.60% 3.43%
Charlotte Eagles 51.21% 20.51% 8.18% 3.05%
Rochester Rhinos 35.01% 13.09% 4.84% 1.72%
Orange County Blues FC 47.32% 15.10% 4.68% 1.42%
Arizona United SC 26.28% 9.21% 3.31% 1.13%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 25.78% 7.81% 2.43% 0.72%
Dayton Dutch Lions 26.33% 7.18% 2.01% 0.53%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Arizona United SCCharleston BatteryCharlotte EaglesDayton Dutch LionsHarrisburg City IslandersLos Angeles Galaxy IIOKC Energy FCOrange County Blues FCOrlando City SCPittsburgh RiverhoundsRichmond KickersRochester RhinosSacramento RepublicWilmington Hammerheads
Arizona United SC34.9%2.74%46.8%1.36%57.8%0.52%42.9%1.57%35.8%2.61%44.5%1.58%54.3%0.99%24.9%5.08%59.7%0.46%24.7%4.94%48.1%0.78%34.9%2.48%39.1%1.18%
Charleston Battery65.1%2.74%59.6%5.30%70.8%2.60%56.9%6.20%50.5%8.59%58.1%6.89%68.5%5.17%35.4%9.36%67.9%2.45%38.5%9.65%61.2%3.50%47.3%8.48%58.2%5.21%
Charlotte Eagles53.2%1.36%40.4%5.30%63.2%1.12%47.6%3.48%40.5%5.78%49.1%3.93%58.3%2.64%27.6%8.39%57.4%1.18%28.9%8.20%50.6%1.74%36.0%5.51%48.6%2.57%
Dayton Dutch Lions42.2%0.52%29.2%2.60%36.8%1.12%33.9%1.32%27.7%2.75%34.5%1.75%42.5%1.17%18.1%5.19%51.3%0.45%18.7%4.94%38.9%0.66%27.6%2.73%33.1%1.13%
Harrisburg City Islanders57.1%1.57%43.1%6.20%52.4%3.48%66.1%1.32%44.1%6.27%50.9%4.37%62.6%3.22%29.3%8.82%63.6%1.43%31.7%9.03%56.4%2.07%41.4%6.25%49.7%3.19%
Los Angeles Galaxy II64.2%2.61%49.5%8.59%59.5%5.78%72.3%2.75%55.9%6.27%59.2%6.95%68.5%5.02%36.0%8.79%68.9%2.71%37.0%9.14%61.1%3.69%47.3%9.03%57.0%5.36%
OKC Energy FC55.5%1.58%41.9%6.89%50.9%3.93%65.5%1.75%49.1%4.37%40.8%6.95%60.5%3.35%27.8%9.06%60.6%1.75%29.1%8.83%54.2%2.45%38.4%6.75%47.5%3.74%
Orange County Blues FC45.7%0.99%31.5%5.17%41.7%2.64%57.5%1.17%37.4%3.22%31.5%5.02%39.5%3.35%21.2%7.93%50.5%1.12%22.3%7.61%43.6%1.65%29.3%4.95%40.8%2.50%
Orlando City SC75.1%5.08%64.6%9.36%72.4%8.39%81.9%5.19%70.7%8.82%64.0%8.79%72.2%9.06%78.8%7.93%79.4%5.13%53.0%5.19%74.1%6.50%61.5%8.97%70.3%8.12%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds40.3%0.46%32.1%2.45%42.6%1.18%48.7%0.45%36.4%1.43%31.1%2.71%39.4%1.75%49.5%1.12%20.6%5.13%22.0%4.76%43.4%0.61%28.3%2.64%36.2%1.09%
Richmond Kickers75.3%4.94%61.5%9.65%71.1%8.20%81.3%4.94%68.3%9.03%63.0%9.14%70.9%8.83%77.7%7.61%47.0%5.19%78.0%4.76%72.4%6.15%59.7%9.23%68.5%7.94%
Rochester Rhinos51.9%0.78%38.8%3.50%49.4%1.74%61.1%0.66%43.6%2.07%38.9%3.69%45.8%2.45%56.4%1.65%25.9%6.50%56.6%0.61%27.6%6.15%34.5%3.65%43.9%1.56%
Sacramento Republic65.1%2.48%52.7%8.48%64.0%5.51%72.4%2.73%58.6%6.25%52.7%9.03%61.6%6.75%70.7%4.95%38.5%8.97%71.7%2.64%40.3%9.23%65.5%3.65%60.2%5.14%
Wilmington Hammerheads60.9%1.18%41.8%5.21%51.4%2.57%66.9%1.13%50.3%3.19%43.0%5.36%52.5%3.74%59.2%2.50%29.7%8.12%63.8%1.09%31.5%7.94%56.1%1.56%39.8%5.14%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Arizona United SCCharleston BatteryCharlotte EaglesDayton Dutch LionsHarrisburg City IslandersLos Angeles Galaxy IIOKC Energy FCOrange County Blues FCOrlando City SCPittsburgh RiverhoundsRichmond KickersRochester RhinosSacramento RepublicWilmington Hammerheads
Arizona United SC37.0%0.95%46.5%0.47%62.6%0.16%44.5%0.58%35.5%0.82%47.0%0.53%52.4%0.29%25.8%1.74%53.6%0.15%27.8%1.79%43.2%0.29%32.3%0.92%46.5%0.51%
Charleston Battery63.0%0.95%58.6%2.08%71.6%0.69%55.3%2.41%49.8%4.31%57.8%2.65%69.0%1.55%36.0%8.68%67.5%0.73%38.1%8.03%61.9%1.31%46.4%4.51%58.9%2.18%
Charlotte Eagles53.5%0.47%41.4%2.08%62.3%0.35%49.1%1.27%42.0%2.08%50.0%1.24%58.3%0.67%29.9%4.10%61.4%0.40%29.6%3.95%53.6%0.65%39.4%2.28%46.5%0.98%
Dayton Dutch Lions37.4%0.16%28.4%0.69%37.7%0.35%32.2%0.40%31.8%0.72%37.5%0.47%43.7%0.26%18.6%1.35%37.0%0.11%20.1%1.34%44.4%0.21%25.5%0.80%37.2%0.33%
Harrisburg City Islanders55.5%0.58%44.7%2.41%50.9%1.27%67.8%0.40%42.5%2.61%53.1%1.62%61.1%0.94%31.0%5.14%64.4%0.46%33.5%4.82%54.1%0.80%39.9%2.65%51.4%1.26%
Los Angeles Galaxy II64.5%0.82%50.2%4.31%58.0%2.08%68.2%0.72%57.5%2.61%58.3%2.51%66.8%1.47%35.8%8.79%65.0%0.83%37.8%8.36%62.6%1.32%46.5%4.38%58.2%2.18%
OKC Energy FC53.0%0.53%42.2%2.65%50.0%1.24%62.5%0.47%46.9%1.62%41.7%2.51%60.2%0.83%28.6%5.43%62.7%0.50%31.0%5.21%53.4%0.77%39.6%2.68%49.0%1.33%
Orange County Blues FC47.6%0.29%31.0%1.55%41.7%0.67%56.3%0.26%38.9%0.94%33.2%1.47%39.8%0.83%21.9%3.09%54.8%0.27%23.0%2.97%42.1%0.45%30.2%1.55%37.8%0.75%
Orlando City SC74.2%1.74%64.0%8.68%70.1%4.10%81.4%1.35%69.0%5.14%64.2%8.79%71.4%5.43%78.1%3.09%79.8%1.51%52.2%12.05%73.9%2.57%60.6%9.12%69.4%4.13%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds46.4%0.15%32.5%0.73%38.6%0.40%63.0%0.11%35.6%0.46%35.0%0.83%37.3%0.50%45.2%0.27%20.2%1.51%22.2%1.43%48.8%0.21%31.8%0.82%38.2%0.40%
Richmond Kickers72.2%1.79%61.9%8.03%70.4%3.95%79.9%1.34%66.5%4.82%62.2%8.36%69.0%5.21%77.0%2.97%47.8%12.05%77.8%1.43%71.2%2.46%58.8%8.83%67.2%3.94%
Rochester Rhinos56.8%0.29%38.1%1.31%46.4%0.65%55.6%0.21%45.9%0.80%37.4%1.32%46.6%0.77%57.9%0.45%26.1%2.57%51.2%0.21%28.8%2.46%36.3%1.44%43.7%0.62%
Sacramento Republic67.7%0.92%53.6%4.51%60.6%2.28%74.5%0.80%60.1%2.65%53.5%4.38%60.4%2.68%69.8%1.55%39.4%9.12%68.2%0.82%41.2%8.83%63.7%1.44%60.9%2.23%
Wilmington Hammerheads53.5%0.51%41.1%2.18%53.5%0.98%62.8%0.33%48.6%1.26%41.8%2.18%51.0%1.33%62.2%0.75%30.6%4.13%61.8%0.40%32.8%3.94%56.3%0.62%39.1%2.23%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Arizona United SCCharleston BatteryCharlotte EaglesDayton Dutch LionsHarrisburg City IslandersLos Angeles Galaxy IIOKC Energy FCOrange County Blues FCOrlando City SCPittsburgh RiverhoundsRichmond KickersRochester RhinosSacramento RepublicWilmington Hammerheads
Arizona United SC44.4%0.33%42.7%0.13%52.2%0.02%48.4%0.15%39.8%0.30%50.7%0.14%52.6%0.06%23.6%0.84%46.5%0.04%27.5%0.75%47.4%0.08%32.4%0.34%39.5%0.12%
Charleston Battery55.6%0.33%59.2%0.76%77.0%0.18%55.8%0.99%51.0%1.89%58.8%1.00%68.4%0.43%36.9%5.12%67.4%0.23%38.7%4.73%59.1%0.46%47.6%2.23%55.6%0.88%
Charlotte Eagles57.3%0.13%40.8%0.76%61.3%0.07%48.0%0.39%41.3%0.85%44.4%0.40%61.2%0.15%30.0%2.05%63.6%0.09%30.4%1.86%49.7%0.16%38.4%0.97%42.8%0.30%
Dayton Dutch Lions47.8%0.02%23.0%0.18%38.7%0.07%33.0%0.09%28.8%0.18%44.7%0.09%45.2%0.04%20.7%0.49%52.9%0.02%17.2%0.47%35.7%0.04%29.0%0.22%39.5%0.09%
Harrisburg City Islanders51.6%0.15%44.2%0.99%52.0%0.39%67.0%0.09%40.6%1.05%52.5%0.52%59.5%0.24%31.0%2.76%59.8%0.09%34.2%2.40%54.0%0.24%41.5%1.16%50.1%0.43%
Los Angeles Galaxy II60.2%0.30%49.0%1.89%58.7%0.85%71.2%0.18%59.4%1.05%55.1%0.96%66.1%0.45%35.9%5.25%63.7%0.24%39.4%4.66%61.9%0.47%46.1%2.18%54.4%0.83%
OKC Energy FC49.3%0.14%41.2%1.00%55.6%0.40%55.3%0.09%47.5%0.52%44.9%0.96%64.3%0.18%28.7%2.60%62.8%0.11%31.2%2.42%55.0%0.22%38.7%1.16%50.1%0.41%
Orange County Blues FC47.4%0.06%31.6%0.43%38.8%0.15%54.8%0.04%40.5%0.24%33.9%0.45%35.7%0.18%23.5%1.20%42.9%0.05%24.2%1.06%37.8%0.10%36.4%0.49%37.1%0.23%
Orlando City SC76.4%0.84%63.1%5.12%70.0%2.05%79.3%0.49%69.0%2.76%64.1%5.25%71.3%2.60%76.5%1.20%81.0%0.62%52.5%13.72%73.4%1.27%61.6%5.92%70.2%2.22%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds53.5%0.04%32.6%0.23%36.4%0.09%47.1%0.02%40.2%0.09%36.3%0.24%37.2%0.11%57.1%0.05%19.0%0.62%25.5%0.51%43.2%0.04%28.6%0.28%38.1%0.10%
Richmond Kickers72.5%0.75%61.3%4.73%69.6%1.86%82.8%0.47%65.8%2.40%60.6%4.66%68.8%2.42%75.8%1.06%47.5%13.72%74.5%0.51%70.7%1.07%58.9%5.31%68.9%1.92%
Rochester Rhinos52.6%0.08%40.9%0.46%50.3%0.16%64.3%0.04%46.0%0.24%38.1%0.47%45.0%0.22%62.2%0.10%26.6%1.27%56.8%0.04%29.3%1.07%37.3%0.54%35.3%0.15%
Sacramento Republic67.6%0.34%52.4%2.23%61.6%0.97%71.0%0.22%58.5%1.16%53.9%2.18%61.3%1.16%63.6%0.49%38.4%5.92%71.4%0.28%41.1%5.31%62.7%0.54%58.1%0.92%
Wilmington Hammerheads60.5%0.12%44.4%0.88%57.2%0.30%60.5%0.09%49.9%0.43%45.6%0.83%49.9%0.41%62.9%0.23%29.8%2.22%61.9%0.10%31.1%1.92%64.7%0.15%41.9%0.92%

Actual Bracket Simulation

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team Advanced to Conference Finals Advanced to USL Championship Won USL Championship
Orlando City SC 71.33% 42.75% 28.59%
Richmond Kickers 64.79% 32.78% 21.03%
Sacramento Republic 62.76% 37.98% 16.54%
Los Angeles Galaxy II 63.97% 31.43% 12.38%
Charleston Battery 35.21% 14.49% 7.18%
Wilmington Hammerheads 37.24% 16.29% 5.61%
Harrisburg City Islanders 28.67% 9.98% 4.41%
Rochester Rhinos 36.03% 14.30% 4.25%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Charleston BatteryHarrisburg City IslandersLos Angeles Galaxy IIOrlando City SCRichmond KickersRochester RhinosSacramento RepublicWilmington Hammerheads
Charleston Battery35.2%100.00%
Harrisburg City Islanders28.7%100.00%
Los Angeles Galaxy II64.0%100.00%
Orlando City SC71.3%100.00%
Richmond Kickers64.8%100.00%
Rochester Rhinos36.0%100.00%
Sacramento Republic62.8%100.00%
Wilmington Hammerheads37.2%100.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Charleston BatteryHarrisburg City IslandersLos Angeles Galaxy IIOrlando City SCRichmond KickersRochester RhinosSacramento RepublicWilmington Hammerheads
Charleston Battery59.0%10.15%33.9%25.06%
Harrisburg City Islanders41.0%10.15%31.4%18.52%
Los Angeles Galaxy II42.7%40.09%59.9%23.89%
Orlando City SC66.1%25.06%56.6%46.27%
Richmond Kickers68.6%18.52%43.4%46.27%
Rochester Rhinos33.7%22.67%49.8%13.36%
Sacramento Republic57.3%40.09%66.3%22.67%
Wilmington Hammerheads40.1%23.89%50.2%13.36%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Charleston BatteryHarrisburg City IslandersLos Angeles Galaxy IIOrlando City SCRichmond KickersRochester RhinosSacramento RepublicWilmington Hammerheads
Charleston Battery46.6%4.49%63.7%2.09%43.6%5.47%56.4%2.44%
Harrisburg City Islanders42.0%3.10%56.4%1.41%40.6%3.84%46.2%1.64%
Los Angeles Galaxy II53.4%4.49%58.0%3.10%34.0%13.44%34.8%10.40%
Orlando City SC66.0%13.44%74.3%6.21%63.4%16.20%70.1%6.89%
Richmond Kickers65.2%10.40%72.0%4.58%57.9%12.47%69.7%5.33%
Rochester Rhinos36.3%2.09%43.6%1.41%25.7%6.21%28.0%4.58%
Sacramento Republic56.4%5.47%59.4%3.84%36.6%16.20%42.1%12.47%
Wilmington Hammerheads43.6%2.44%53.8%1.64%29.9%6.89%30.3%5.33%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, what was the most likely path they had to the championship across all simulations? Tiles represent the opponent they faced and defeated the most often in each round.

Orlando City SC 28.59% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Harrisburg City Islanders
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
71.33%
Conference Finals
vs. Richmond Kickers
Matchup
61.26%
Win Prob
56.60%
USL Championship
vs. Sacramento Republic
Matchup
35.93%
Win Prob
63.40%
Richmond Kickers 21.03% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Charleston Battery
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
64.79%
Conference Finals
vs. Orlando City SC
Matchup
61.25%
Win Prob
43.40%
USL Championship
vs. Sacramento Republic
Matchup
34.37%
Win Prob
57.94%
Sacramento Republic 16.54% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Wilmington Hammerheads
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
62.76%
Conference Finals
vs. Los Angeles Galaxy II
Matchup
60.45%
Win Prob
57.28%
USL Championship
vs. Orlando City SC
Matchup
35.84%
Win Prob
36.60%
Los Angeles Galaxy II 12.38% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Rochester Rhinos
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
63.97%
Conference Finals
vs. Sacramento Republic
Matchup
54.49%
Win Prob
42.72%
USL Championship
vs. Orlando City SC
Matchup
36.91%
Win Prob
34.02%
Charleston Battery 7.18% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Richmond Kickers
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
35.21%
Conference Finals
vs. Orlando City SC
Matchup
58.68%
Win Prob
33.93%
USL Championship
vs. Sacramento Republic
Matchup
33.19%
Win Prob
43.58%
Wilmington Hammerheads 5.61% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Sacramento Republic
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
37.24%
Conference Finals
vs. Los Angeles Galaxy II
Matchup
58.83%
Win Prob
40.12%
USL Championship
vs. Orlando City SC
Matchup
36.66%
Win Prob
29.86%
Harrisburg City Islanders 4.41% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Orlando City SC
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
28.67%
Conference Finals
vs. Richmond Kickers
Matchup
58.32%
Win Prob
31.43%
USL Championship
vs. Sacramento Republic
Matchup
35.32%
Win Prob
40.57%
Rochester Rhinos 4.25% chance to win
Conference Semifinals
vs. Los Angeles Galaxy II
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
36.03%
Conference Finals
vs. Sacramento Republic
Matchup
53.50%
Win Prob
33.74%
USL Championship
vs. Orlando City SC
Matchup
37.57%
Win Prob
25.71%

Regular Season Games

Summary of every regular-season game played this season.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2014-04-13 OKC Energy FC L 0-4 1459.23 1503.48 36.17% 23.28% 40.55% -17.15 0
2014-04-20 Sacramento Republic W 2-1 1442.08 1511.39 32.84% 23.04% 44.12% +5.28 3
2014-04-26 Los Angeles Galaxy II T 1-1 1447.36 1506.04 34.22% 23.17% 42.61% +0.22 4
2014-05-04 Charlotte Eagles W 2-1 1447.58 1503.54 34.58% 23.19% 42.23% +5.09 7
2014-05-10 @ Richmond Kickers L 0-4 1452.67 1563.24 22.27% 20.30% 57.43% -11.10 7
2014-05-11 @ Harrisburg City Islanders W 1-0 1441.57 1480.90 29.46% 22.54% 48.00% +5.99 10
2014-05-18 Orlando City SC L 0-1 1447.56 1590.17 24.63% 21.24% 54.13% -3.43 10
2014-06-01 @ Orange County Blues FC L 0-2 1444.13 1476.04 30.33% 22.70% 46.97% -7.82 10
2014-06-08 @ Sacramento Republic T 1-1 1436.31 1518.72 24.87% 21.33% 53.80% +0.80 11
2014-06-12 Dayton Dutch Lions L 1-2 1437.11 1435.55 42.70% 23.16% 34.14% -5.14 11
2014-06-15 Rochester Rhinos W 1-0 1431.97 1468.82 37.20% 23.31% 39.49% +5.13 14
2014-06-22 Los Angeles Galaxy II T 1-1 1437.10 1528.92 30.07% 22.65% 47.27% +0.46 15
2014-06-27 @ Sacramento Republic L 0-1 1437.56 1508.10 26.06% 21.71% 52.23% -3.62 15
2014-06-29 Orange County Blues FC L 2-3 1433.94 1486.02 35.10% 23.22% 41.67% -4.18 15
2014-07-05 @ Los Angeles Galaxy II L 2-4 1429.76 1519.25 24.19% 21.08% 54.73% -4.92 15
2014-07-13 @ Orange County Blues FC W 2-1 1424.84 1486.04 27.03% 21.99% 50.98% +5.92 18
2014-07-18 @ OKC Energy FC T 1-1 1430.76 1501.88 26.00% 21.69% 52.31% +0.73 19
2014-07-20 Orange County Blues FC W 3-0 1431.49 1480.11 35.57% 23.25% 41.18% +14.51 22
2014-07-26 @ Wilmington Hammerheads T 0-0 1446.00 1505.24 27.24% 22.04% 50.71% +0.72 23
2014-07-27 @ Charleston Battery L 0-2 1446.72 1509.36 26.88% 21.95% 51.17% -7.02 23
2014-08-03 Sacramento Republic L 1-2 1439.70 1525.18 30.83% 22.78% 46.39% -3.96 23
2014-08-10 @ Los Angeles Galaxy II L 2-3 1435.74 1526.60 24.06% 21.04% 54.90% -3.00 23
2014-08-15 @ OKC Energy FC W 2-1 1432.74 1507.97 25.58% 21.56% 52.85% +6.10 26
2014-08-17 Pittsburgh Riverhounds W 3-1 1438.84 1435.99 42.88% 23.15% 33.97% +7.45 29
2014-08-23 OKC Energy FC W 1-0 1446.29 1496.83 35.31% 23.24% 41.45% +5.32 32
2014-09-07 @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds W 2-1 1451.61 1422.86 38.33% 23.32% 38.36% +4.73 35
2014-03-23 Orlando City SC T 1-1 1528.50 1568.94 36.70% 23.29% 40.01% +0.09 1
2014-03-30 Richmond Kickers T 2-2 1528.59 1551.11 39.25% 23.31% 37.44% -0.04 2
2014-04-13 @ Orlando City SC L 0-1 1528.55 1572.98 28.88% 22.42% 48.70% -3.97 2
2014-04-27 @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds T 0-0 1524.58 1454.61 44.21% 23.03% 32.76% -0.34 3
2014-04-27 @ Rochester Rhinos L 0-1 1524.24 1453.63 44.30% 23.02% 32.67% -5.62 3
2014-05-03 @ Harrisburg City Islanders W 4-0 1518.62 1499.34 36.98% 23.30% 39.72% +18.44 6
2014-05-05 @ Dayton Dutch Lions W 2-0 1537.06 1473.16 43.35% 23.11% 33.54% +8.51 9
2014-05-11 Wilmington Hammerheads L 0-1 1545.57 1476.17 52.08% 21.75% 26.18% -6.40 9
2014-05-18 @ Wilmington Hammerheads L 0-1 1539.17 1482.57 42.32% 23.19% 34.50% -5.42 9
2014-05-25 Pittsburgh Riverhounds W 1-0 1533.75 1434.15 56.03% 20.72% 23.25% +3.25 12
2014-06-01 @ Orlando City SC L 0-2 1537.00 1599.10 26.94% 21.96% 51.10% -7.04 12
2014-06-15 Los Angeles Galaxy II W 3-0 1529.96 1541.99 40.76% 23.27% 35.97% +13.07 15
2014-06-22 @ Charlotte Eagles L 1-3 1543.03 1481.45 43.02% 23.13% 33.84% -8.96 15
2014-07-06 @ Harrisburg City Islanders L 1-4 1534.07 1481.58 41.73% 23.22% 35.05% -12.37 15
2014-07-13 Charlotte Eagles T 0-0 1521.70 1485.30 47.59% 22.61% 29.80% -0.54 16
2014-07-20 @ Richmond Kickers L 0-4 1521.16 1603.77 24.85% 21.32% 53.83% -12.37 16
2014-07-23 Richmond Kickers T 1-1 1508.79 1616.15 28.29% 22.30% 49.41% +0.57 17
2014-07-27 Arizona United SC W 2-0 1509.36 1446.72 51.17% 21.95% 26.88% +7.03 20
2014-08-02 @ Rochester Rhinos T 0-0 1516.39 1459.36 42.38% 23.18% 34.44% -0.24 21
2014-08-09 Dayton Dutch Lions T 2-2 1516.15 1409.28 56.96% 20.44% 22.60% -0.72 22
2014-08-14 Orange County Blues FC W 3-2 1515.43 1446.56 52.01% 21.76% 26.23% +3.26 25
2014-08-16 Rochester Rhinos W 2-1 1518.69 1453.89 51.46% 21.88% 26.66% +3.48 28
2014-08-25 @ OKC Energy FC W 2-0 1522.17 1491.50 38.60% 23.32% 38.08% +9.41 31
2014-08-28 @ Sacramento Republic L 1-3 1531.58 1555.33 31.32% 22.85% 45.83% -6.96 31
2014-08-31 Pittsburgh Riverhounds W 4-0 1524.62 1434.90 54.76% 21.08% 24.17% +12.05 34
2014-09-06 Harrisburg City Islanders W 2-1 1536.67 1496.54 48.10% 22.52% 29.37% +3.80 37
2014-04-05 Dayton Dutch Lions L 0-1 1493.91 1475.46 45.09% 22.94% 31.97% -5.69 0
2014-04-13 Richmond Kickers W 2-1 1488.22 1556.69 32.95% 23.05% 44.00% +5.26 3
2014-04-27 @ Wilmington Hammerheads W 2-0 1493.48 1486.60 35.27% 23.23% 41.50% +10.06 6
2014-05-04 @ Arizona United SC L 1-2 1503.54 1447.58 42.23% 23.19% 34.58% -5.10 6
2014-05-06 @ Los Angeles Galaxy II L 1-2 1498.44 1520.41 31.54% 22.88% 45.58% -4.04 6
2014-05-09 @ Orange County Blues FC W 2-0 1494.40 1479.88 36.32% 23.28% 40.40% +9.85 9
2014-05-22 @ Orlando City SC L 1-3 1504.25 1593.60 24.20% 21.09% 54.71% -5.51 9
2014-05-25 @ Richmond Kickers L 0-2 1498.74 1584.56 24.54% 21.21% 54.25% -6.44 9
2014-06-01 Wilmington Hammerheads L 1-2 1492.30 1499.94 41.39% 23.24% 35.37% -5.02 9
2014-06-08 OKC Energy FC T 1-1 1487.28 1475.67 44.12% 23.04% 32.84% -0.30 10
2014-06-14 Orange County Blues FC L 0-1 1486.98 1480.50 43.40% 23.10% 33.50% -5.53 10
2014-06-22 Charleston Battery W 3-1 1481.45 1543.03 33.84% 23.13% 43.02% +8.96 13
2014-06-28 @ Harrisburg City Islanders T 1-1 1490.41 1481.73 35.52% 23.25% 41.24% +0.15 14
2014-06-29 @ Rochester Rhinos W 1-0 1490.56 1472.10 36.87% 23.30% 39.84% +5.17 17
2014-07-06 Dayton Dutch Lions L 1-3 1495.73 1427.14 51.97% 21.77% 26.26% -10.43 17
2014-07-13 @ Charleston Battery T 0-0 1485.30 1521.70 29.80% 22.61% 47.59% +0.54 18
2014-07-15 Sacramento Republic L 0-1 1485.84 1503.39 39.97% 23.29% 36.74% -5.18 18
2014-07-18 @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds L 0-2 1480.66 1426.68 41.94% 23.21% 34.85% -10.14 18
2014-07-20 @ Dayton Dutch Lions W 2-1 1470.52 1430.03 40.01% 23.29% 36.69% +4.57 21
2014-07-27 Wilmington Hammerheads W 2-0 1475.09 1504.52 38.26% 23.32% 38.42% +9.47 24
2014-08-03 @ Orlando City SC L 1-4 1484.56 1625.59 19.78% 19.02% 61.21% -6.33 24
2014-08-10 @ Richmond Kickers L 1-2 1478.23 1624.47 19.38% 18.79% 61.84% -2.53 24
2014-08-17 Rochester Rhinos W 3-1 1475.70 1450.41 46.05% 22.82% 31.13% +6.93 27
2014-08-21 Orlando City SC W 2-0 1482.63 1631.36 24.05% 21.03% 54.92% +12.59 30
2014-08-30 Pittsburgh Riverhounds L 0-1 1495.22 1428.54 51.71% 21.83% 26.46% -6.36 30
2014-09-07 Harrisburg City Islanders L 2-4 1488.86 1492.74 41.92% 23.21% 34.87% -7.85 30
2014-04-05 @ Charlotte Eagles W 1-0 1475.46 1493.91 31.97% 22.94% 45.09% +5.70 3
2014-04-12 Rochester Rhinos T 1-1 1481.16 1453.21 46.42% 22.78% 30.81% -0.42 4
2014-04-20 @ Harrisburg City Islanders W 1-0 1480.74 1511.14 30.51% 22.73% 46.76% +5.86 7
2014-04-27 Richmond Kickers L 1-5 1486.60 1550.76 33.50% 23.11% 43.39% -13.44 7
2014-05-05 Charleston Battery L 0-2 1473.16 1537.06 33.54% 23.11% 43.35% -8.51 7
2014-05-11 Los Angeles Galaxy II T 1-1 1464.65 1524.45 34.07% 23.15% 42.77% +0.23 8
2014-05-17 @ Harrisburg City Islanders L 3-5 1464.88 1474.92 33.04% 23.06% 43.90% -6.15 8
2014-05-26 Sacramento Republic L 1-2 1458.73 1514.35 34.63% 23.19% 42.18% -4.36 8
2014-06-02 Rochester Rhinos L 0-1 1454.37 1462.59 41.30% 23.24% 35.45% -5.31 8
2014-06-08 @ Orange County Blues FC L 3-4 1449.06 1483.86 29.99% 22.64% 47.37% -3.59 8
2014-06-09 @ Los Angeles Galaxy II L 1-5 1445.47 1538.30 23.88% 20.97% 55.16% -9.92 8
2014-06-12 @ Arizona United SC W 2-1 1435.55 1437.11 34.14% 23.16% 42.70% +5.14 11
2014-06-21 @ Rochester Rhinos L 0-2 1440.69 1463.69 31.41% 22.86% 45.72% -8.05 11
2014-06-22 Orlando City SC L 0-2 1432.64 1613.08 21.24% 19.80% 58.96% -5.58 11
2014-06-29 @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds W 1-0 1427.06 1423.98 34.76% 23.20% 42.04% +5.39 14
2014-07-03 Pittsburgh Riverhounds L 1-2 1432.45 1418.59 44.44% 23.01% 32.55% -5.31 14
2014-07-06 @ Charlotte Eagles W 3-1 1427.14 1495.73 26.26% 21.77% 51.97% +10.43 17
2014-07-13 Harrisburg City Islanders L 1-3 1437.57 1493.95 34.53% 23.19% 42.29% -7.54 17
2014-07-20 Charlotte Eagles L 1-2 1430.03 1470.52 36.69% 23.29% 40.01% -4.57 17
2014-07-27 OKC Energy FC L 0-3 1425.46 1496.21 32.66% 23.02% 44.32% -12.09 17
2014-08-03 Harrisburg City Islanders L 0-1 1413.37 1506.82 29.88% 22.62% 47.50% -4.09 17
2014-08-09 @ Charleston Battery T 2-2 1409.28 1516.15 22.60% 20.44% 56.96% +0.72 18
2014-08-10 @ Wilmington Hammerheads W 2-1 1410.00 1489.03 25.20% 21.44% 53.36% +6.15 21
2014-08-17 @ Richmond Kickers T 1-1 1416.15 1627.00 15.05% 15.73% 69.22% +1.55 22
2014-09-01 @ Orlando City SC L 0-7 1417.70 1612.92 16.00% 16.49% 67.51% -13.13 22
2014-09-06 Wilmington Hammerheads L 0-4 1404.57 1492.76 30.50% 22.73% 46.77% -14.91 22
2014-04-06 @ Wilmington Hammerheads T 0-0 1511.14 1482.16 38.36% 23.32% 38.32% +0.00 1
2014-04-20 Dayton Dutch Lions L 0-1 1511.14 1480.74 46.76% 22.73% 30.51% -5.86 1
2014-04-25 @ Orange County Blues FC L 1-4 1505.28 1487.36 36.79% 23.30% 39.92% -11.22 1
2014-04-27 @ Sacramento Republic W 2-1 1494.06 1506.12 32.78% 23.03% 44.19% +5.28 4
2014-05-03 Charleston Battery L 0-4 1499.34 1518.62 39.72% 23.30% 36.98% -18.44 4
2014-05-11 Arizona United SC L 0-1 1480.90 1441.57 48.00% 22.54% 29.46% -5.98 4
2014-05-17 Dayton Dutch Lions W 5-3 1474.92 1464.88 43.90% 23.06% 33.04% +6.15 7
2014-06-01 Richmond Kickers L 2-3 1481.07 1590.19 28.10% 22.25% 49.65% -3.47 7
2014-06-02 @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds T 1-1 1477.60 1430.91 40.90% 23.26% 35.84% -0.13 8
2014-06-08 @ Richmond Kickers L 0-1 1477.47 1593.66 21.79% 20.07% 58.14% -3.04 8
2014-06-12 @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds W 3-1 1474.43 1436.37 39.67% 23.30% 37.03% +7.98 11
2014-06-15 Pittsburgh Riverhounds T 0-0 1482.41 1428.40 50.00% 22.18% 27.81% -0.68 12
2014-06-28 Charlotte Eagles T 1-1 1481.73 1490.41 41.24% 23.25% 35.52% -0.15 13
2014-07-06 Charleston Battery W 4-1 1481.58 1534.07 35.05% 23.22% 41.73% +12.37 16
2014-07-13 @ Dayton Dutch Lions W 3-1 1493.95 1437.57 42.29% 23.19% 34.53% +7.54 19
2014-07-19 Wilmington Hammerheads T 0-0 1501.49 1500.18 42.66% 23.16% 34.18% -0.25 20
2014-07-24 OKC Energy FC T 3-3 1501.24 1496.06 43.21% 23.12% 33.67% -0.16 21
2014-07-27 @ Richmond Kickers L 1-2 1501.08 1615.57 21.93% 20.14% 57.93% -2.88 21
2014-07-31 Los Angeles Galaxy II W 3-1 1498.20 1545.42 35.76% 23.26% 40.98% +8.62 24
2014-08-03 @ Dayton Dutch Lions W 1-0 1506.82 1413.37 47.50% 22.62% 29.88% +4.10 27
2014-08-10 Orlando City SC W 3-2 1510.92 1631.92 26.81% 21.93% 51.26% +5.64 30
2014-08-17 @ Orlando City SC L 1-3 1516.56 1626.27 22.35% 20.33% 57.32% -5.08 30
2014-08-24 @ Rochester Rhinos T 2-2 1511.48 1443.49 43.93% 23.06% 33.01% -0.22 31
2014-08-31 Rochester Rhinos L 1-4 1511.26 1443.70 51.83% 21.80% 26.37% -14.72 31
2014-09-06 @ Charleston Battery L 1-2 1496.54 1536.67 29.37% 22.52% 48.10% -3.80 31
2014-09-07 @ Charlotte Eagles W 4-2 1492.74 1488.86 34.87% 23.21% 41.92% +7.85 34
2014-03-23 Orange County Blues FC W 3-1 1500.00 1508.28 41.30% 23.24% 35.46% +7.71 3
2014-03-30 Sacramento Republic T 1-1 1507.71 1500.00 43.57% 23.09% 33.34% -0.28 4
2014-04-08 OKC Energy FC W 4-2 1507.43 1510.26 42.07% 23.20% 34.72% +6.78 7
2014-04-14 Sacramento Republic L 0-3 1514.21 1495.80 45.08% 22.94% 31.98% -15.59 7
2014-04-20 Orange County Blues FC W 3-1 1498.62 1494.79 43.02% 23.14% 33.84% +7.42 10
2014-04-26 @ Arizona United SC T 1-1 1506.04 1447.36 42.61% 23.17% 34.22% -0.22 11
2014-04-28 @ Orange County Blues FC W 3-0 1505.82 1498.58 35.32% 23.24% 41.44% +14.59 14
2014-05-06 Charlotte Eagles W 2-1 1520.41 1498.44 45.58% 22.88% 31.54% +4.04 17
2014-05-11 @ Dayton Dutch Lions T 1-1 1524.45 1464.65 42.77% 23.15% 34.07% -0.23 18
2014-05-18 @ Sacramento Republic L 1-2 1524.22 1504.94 36.98% 23.30% 39.72% -4.60 18
2014-05-26 OKC Energy FC W 5-0 1519.62 1494.03 46.09% 22.82% 31.09% +18.68 21
2014-06-09 Dayton Dutch Lions W 5-1 1538.30 1445.47 55.16% 20.97% 23.88% +9.92 24
2014-06-12 Rochester Rhinos L 1-2 1548.22 1462.58 54.22% 21.22% 24.56% -6.23 24
2014-06-15 @ Charleston Battery L 0-3 1541.99 1529.96 35.97% 23.27% 40.76% -13.07 24
2014-06-22 @ Arizona United SC T 1-1 1528.92 1437.10 47.27% 22.65% 30.07% -0.47 25
2014-06-29 @ Orlando City SC L 0-3 1528.45 1618.65 24.12% 21.06% 54.82% -9.20 25
2014-07-05 Arizona United SC W 4-2 1519.25 1429.76 54.73% 21.08% 24.19% +4.92 28
2014-07-20 @ OKC Energy FC W 1-0 1524.17 1501.16 37.51% 23.31% 39.18% +5.10 31
2014-07-27 @ Orange County Blues FC W 4-0 1529.27 1465.59 43.32% 23.11% 33.57% +16.15 34
2014-07-31 @ Harrisburg City Islanders L 1-3 1545.42 1498.20 40.98% 23.26% 35.76% -8.62 34
2014-08-03 @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds L 1-3 1536.80 1420.98 50.56% 22.07% 27.37% -10.20 34
2014-08-10 Arizona United SC W 3-2 1526.60 1435.74 54.90% 21.04% 24.06% +3.00 37
2014-08-17 @ OKC Energy FC W 1-0 1529.60 1501.86 38.18% 23.32% 38.50% +5.03 40
2014-08-24 Wilmington Hammerheads T 3-3 1534.63 1480.40 50.03% 22.18% 27.79% -0.38 41
2014-09-02 Richmond Kickers T 1-1 1534.25 1619.34 30.88% 22.79% 46.34% +0.42 42
2014-09-07 @ Sacramento Republic W 2-1 1534.67 1565.44 30.47% 22.72% 46.81% +5.53 45
2014-04-06 @ Orange County Blues FC W 2-0 1500.00 1500.57 34.27% 23.17% 42.56% +10.26 3
2014-04-08 @ Los Angeles Galaxy II L 2-4 1510.26 1507.43 34.72% 23.20% 42.07% -6.78 3
2014-04-13 @ Arizona United SC W 4-0 1503.48 1459.23 40.55% 23.28% 36.17% +17.15 6
2014-04-27 Orlando City SC L 1-2 1520.63 1576.96 34.53% 23.19% 42.28% -4.36 6
2014-05-05 @ Orlando City SC L 1-3 1516.27 1581.31 26.63% 21.88% 51.49% -6.03 6
2014-05-11 Orange County Blues FC L 0-1 1510.24 1470.04 48.12% 22.52% 29.36% -6.00 6
2014-05-17 Richmond Kickers L 1-4 1504.24 1574.35 32.74% 23.03% 44.23% -10.21 6
2014-05-26 @ Los Angeles Galaxy II L 0-5 1494.03 1519.62 31.09% 22.82% 46.09% -18.68 6
2014-06-07 @ Wilmington Hammerheads T 2-2 1475.35 1504.95 30.61% 22.74% 46.65% +0.32 7
2014-06-08 @ Charlotte Eagles T 1-1 1475.67 1487.28 32.84% 23.04% 44.12% +0.30 8
2014-06-15 Sacramento Republic W 2-0 1475.97 1517.92 36.49% 23.29% 40.22% +9.82 11
2014-06-23 Rochester Rhinos T 0-0 1485.79 1471.74 44.47% 23.01% 32.53% -0.36 12
2014-06-29 Sacramento Republic W 2-0 1485.43 1511.72 38.71% 23.32% 37.97% +9.39 15
2014-07-13 Pittsburgh Riverhounds W 2-0 1494.82 1433.74 50.96% 21.99% 27.05% +7.06 18
2014-07-18 Arizona United SC T 1-1 1501.88 1430.76 52.31% 21.69% 26.00% -0.72 19
2014-07-20 Los Angeles Galaxy II L 0-1 1501.16 1524.17 39.18% 23.31% 37.51% -5.10 19
2014-07-24 @ Harrisburg City Islanders T 3-3 1496.06 1501.24 33.67% 23.12% 43.21% +0.15 20
2014-07-27 @ Dayton Dutch Lions W 3-0 1496.21 1425.46 44.32% 23.02% 32.66% +12.09 23
2014-08-03 Orange County Blues FC W 1-0 1508.30 1449.44 50.66% 22.05% 27.29% +3.78 26
2014-08-10 @ Sacramento Republic L 1-2 1512.08 1529.15 32.15% 22.96% 44.89% -4.11 26
2014-08-15 Arizona United SC L 1-2 1507.97 1432.74 52.85% 21.56% 25.58% -6.11 26
2014-08-17 Los Angeles Galaxy II L 0-1 1501.86 1529.60 38.50% 23.32% 38.18% -5.03 26
2014-08-23 @ Arizona United SC L 0-1 1496.83 1446.29 41.45% 23.24% 35.31% -5.33 26
2014-08-25 Charleston Battery L 0-2 1491.50 1522.17 38.08% 23.32% 38.60% -9.40 26
2014-09-05 @ Sacramento Republic L 0-1 1482.10 1561.94 25.12% 21.41% 53.46% -3.50 26
2014-09-07 @ Orange County Blues FC W 1-0 1478.60 1424.87 41.91% 23.21% 34.88% +4.66 29
2014-03-23 @ Los Angeles Galaxy II L 1-3 1508.28 1500.00 35.46% 23.24% 41.30% -7.71 0
2014-04-06 OKC Energy FC L 0-2 1500.57 1500.00 42.56% 23.17% 34.27% -10.26 0
2014-04-13 Sacramento Republic W 2-1 1490.31 1500.27 41.06% 23.26% 35.69% +4.48 3
2014-04-20 @ Los Angeles Galaxy II L 1-3 1494.79 1498.62 33.84% 23.14% 43.02% -7.43 3
2014-04-25 Harrisburg City Islanders W 4-1 1487.36 1505.28 39.92% 23.30% 36.79% +11.22 6
2014-04-28 Los Angeles Galaxy II L 0-3 1498.58 1505.82 41.44% 23.24% 35.32% -14.59 6
2014-05-04 @ Sacramento Republic L 1-2 1483.99 1500.83 32.18% 22.96% 44.86% -4.11 6
2014-05-09 Charlotte Eagles L 0-2 1479.88 1494.40 40.40% 23.28% 36.32% -9.84 6
2014-05-11 @ OKC Energy FC W 1-0 1470.04 1510.24 29.36% 22.52% 48.12% +6.00 9
2014-06-01 Arizona United SC W 2-0 1476.04 1444.13 46.97% 22.70% 30.33% +7.82 12
2014-06-08 Dayton Dutch Lions W 4-3 1483.86 1449.06 47.37% 22.64% 29.99% +3.58 15
2014-06-12 @ Orlando City SC L 1-4 1487.44 1606.14 21.58% 19.97% 58.46% -6.94 15
2014-06-14 @ Charlotte Eagles W 1-0 1480.50 1486.98 33.50% 23.10% 43.40% +5.52 18
2014-06-29 @ Arizona United SC W 3-2 1486.02 1433.94 41.67% 23.22% 35.10% +4.19 21
2014-07-08 @ Sacramento Republic L 1-2 1490.21 1502.33 32.77% 23.03% 44.20% -4.17 21
2014-07-13 Arizona United SC L 1-2 1486.04 1424.84 50.98% 21.99% 27.03% -5.93 21
2014-07-20 @ Arizona United SC L 0-3 1480.11 1431.49 41.18% 23.25% 35.57% -14.52 21
2014-07-27 Los Angeles Galaxy II L 0-4 1465.59 1529.27 33.57% 23.11% 43.32% -16.15 21
2014-08-03 @ OKC Energy FC L 0-1 1449.44 1508.30 27.29% 22.05% 50.66% -3.77 21
2014-08-09 @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds L 0-1 1445.67 1431.18 36.31% 23.28% 40.41% -4.81 21
2014-08-11 @ Rochester Rhinos W 1-0 1440.86 1459.59 31.94% 22.93% 45.13% +5.70 24
2014-08-14 @ Charleston Battery L 2-3 1446.56 1515.43 26.23% 21.76% 52.01% -3.26 24
2014-08-18 Sacramento Republic L 1-6 1443.30 1533.26 30.29% 22.69% 47.01% -15.12 24
2014-08-24 Wilmington Hammerheads L 1-2 1428.18 1475.93 35.69% 23.26% 41.05% -4.48 24
2014-08-31 Richmond Kickers T 1-1 1423.70 1620.51 19.93% 19.10% 60.97% +1.17 25
2014-09-07 OKC Energy FC L 0-1 1424.87 1478.60 34.88% 23.21% 41.91% -4.66 25
2014-03-23 @ Charleston Battery T 1-1 1568.94 1528.50 40.01% 23.29% 36.70% -0.09 1
2014-03-30 Pittsburgh Riverhounds T 1-1 1568.85 1462.98 56.84% 20.48% 22.69% -0.96 2
2014-04-06 Rochester Rhinos W 3-1 1567.89 1458.30 57.31% 20.33% 22.36% +5.09 5
2014-04-13 Charleston Battery W 1-0 1572.98 1528.55 48.70% 22.42% 28.88% +3.98 8
2014-04-27 @ OKC Energy FC W 2-1 1576.96 1520.63 42.28% 23.19% 34.53% +4.35 11
2014-05-05 OKC Energy FC W 3-1 1581.31 1516.27 51.49% 21.88% 26.63% +6.03 14
2014-05-10 @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds W 1-0 1587.34 1454.95 52.78% 21.58% 25.64% +3.56 17
2014-05-11 @ Rochester Rhinos T 1-1 1590.90 1460.57 52.51% 21.65% 25.85% -0.73 18
2014-05-18 @ Arizona United SC W 1-0 1590.17 1447.56 54.13% 21.24% 24.63% +3.43 21
2014-05-22 Charlotte Eagles W 3-1 1593.60 1504.25 54.71% 21.09% 24.20% +5.50 24
2014-06-01 Charleston Battery W 2-0 1599.10 1537.00 51.10% 21.96% 26.94% +7.04 27
2014-06-12 Orange County Blues FC W 4-1 1606.14 1487.44 58.46% 19.97% 21.58% +6.94 30
2014-06-22 @ Dayton Dutch Lions W 2-0 1613.08 1432.64 58.96% 19.80% 21.24% +5.57 33
2014-06-29 Los Angeles Galaxy II W 3-0 1618.65 1528.45 54.82% 21.06% 24.12% +9.21 36
2014-07-13 Wilmington Hammerheads W 2-0 1627.86 1505.77 58.88% 19.83% 21.29% +5.59 39
2014-07-18 @ Sacramento Republic T 0-0 1633.45 1508.57 51.78% 21.81% 26.41% -0.78 40
2014-07-27 @ Rochester Rhinos L 0-1 1632.67 1452.28 58.95% 19.81% 21.24% -7.08 40
2014-08-03 Charlotte Eagles W 4-1 1625.59 1484.56 61.21% 19.02% 19.78% +6.33 43
2014-08-10 @ Harrisburg City Islanders L 2-3 1631.92 1510.92 51.26% 21.93% 26.81% -5.65 43
2014-08-17 Harrisburg City Islanders W 3-1 1626.27 1516.56 57.32% 20.33% 22.35% +5.09 46
2014-08-21 @ Charlotte Eagles L 0-2 1631.36 1482.63 54.92% 21.03% 24.05% -12.60 46
2014-08-24 @ Richmond Kickers W 3-2 1618.76 1625.45 33.47% 23.10% 43.43% +4.95 49
2014-08-29 @ Wilmington Hammerheads L 1-3 1623.71 1480.78 54.17% 21.23% 24.60% -10.79 49
2014-09-01 Dayton Dutch Lions W 7-0 1612.92 1417.70 67.51% 16.49% 16.00% +13.13 52
2014-09-04 @ Wilmington Hammerheads T 0-0 1626.05 1491.91 53.01% 21.53% 25.46% -0.85 53
2014-09-07 Richmond Kickers W 1-0 1625.20 1618.93 43.37% 23.11% 33.53% +4.51 56
2014-03-30 @ Orlando City SC T 1-1 1462.98 1568.85 22.69% 20.48% 56.84% +0.95 1
2014-04-06 @ Richmond Kickers L 1-3 1463.93 1551.14 24.41% 21.16% 54.43% -5.55 1
2014-04-13 Wilmington Hammerheads L 3-4 1458.38 1482.16 39.07% 23.31% 37.62% -4.44 1
2014-04-20 @ Richmond Kickers T 2-2 1453.94 1551.43 23.44% 20.80% 55.76% +0.67 2
2014-04-27 Charleston Battery T 0-0 1454.61 1524.58 32.76% 23.03% 44.21% +0.34 3
2014-05-10 Orlando City SC L 0-1 1454.95 1587.34 25.64% 21.58% 52.78% -3.56 3
2014-05-18 Rochester Rhinos L 0-1 1451.39 1461.30 41.06% 23.26% 35.68% -5.29 3
2014-05-24 @ Wilmington Hammerheads L 1-5 1446.10 1487.99 29.17% 22.48% 48.35% -11.95 3
2014-05-25 @ Charleston Battery L 0-1 1434.15 1533.75 23.25% 20.72% 56.03% -3.24 3
2014-06-02 Harrisburg City Islanders T 1-1 1430.91 1477.60 35.84% 23.26% 40.90% +0.13 4
2014-06-08 @ Rochester Rhinos W 3-2 1431.04 1467.91 29.75% 22.60% 47.65% +5.33 7
2014-06-12 Harrisburg City Islanders L 1-3 1436.37 1474.43 37.03% 23.30% 39.67% -7.97 7
2014-06-15 @ Harrisburg City Islanders T 0-0 1428.40 1482.41 27.81% 22.18% 50.00% +0.67 8
2014-06-22 Richmond Kickers L 1-3 1429.07 1596.05 22.39% 20.35% 57.27% -5.09 8
2014-06-29 Dayton Dutch Lions L 0-1 1423.98 1427.06 42.04% 23.20% 34.76% -5.39 8
2014-07-03 @ Dayton Dutch Lions W 2-1 1418.59 1432.45 32.55% 23.01% 44.44% +5.31 11
2014-07-05 Rochester Rhinos W 2-0 1423.90 1466.93 36.34% 23.28% 40.38% +9.84 14
2014-07-13 @ OKC Energy FC L 0-2 1433.74 1494.82 27.05% 21.99% 50.96% -7.06 14
2014-07-18 Charlotte Eagles W 2-0 1426.68 1480.66 34.85% 23.21% 41.94% +10.14 17
2014-07-28 @ Sacramento Republic L 0-5 1436.82 1509.35 25.86% 21.65% 52.49% -15.84 17
2014-08-03 Los Angeles Galaxy II W 3-1 1420.98 1536.80 27.37% 22.07% 50.56% +10.20 20
2014-08-09 Orange County Blues FC W 1-0 1431.18 1445.67 40.41% 23.28% 36.31% +4.81 23
2014-08-17 @ Arizona United SC L 1-3 1435.99 1438.84 33.97% 23.15% 42.88% -7.45 23
2014-08-30 @ Charlotte Eagles W 1-0 1428.54 1495.22 26.46% 21.83% 51.71% +6.36 26
2014-08-31 @ Charleston Battery L 0-4 1434.90 1524.62 24.17% 21.08% 54.76% -12.04 26
2014-09-07 Arizona United SC L 1-2 1422.86 1451.61 38.36% 23.32% 38.33% -4.73 26
2014-03-30 @ Charleston Battery T 2-2 1551.11 1528.59 37.44% 23.31% 39.25% +0.03 1
2014-04-06 Pittsburgh Riverhounds W 3-1 1551.14 1463.93 54.43% 21.16% 24.41% +5.55 4
2014-04-13 @ Charlotte Eagles L 1-2 1556.69 1488.22 44.00% 23.05% 32.95% -5.26 4
2014-04-20 Pittsburgh Riverhounds T 2-2 1551.43 1453.94 55.76% 20.80% 23.44% -0.67 5
2014-04-27 @ Dayton Dutch Lions W 5-1 1550.76 1486.60 43.39% 23.11% 33.50% +13.44 8
2014-05-03 Rochester Rhinos T 1-1 1564.20 1459.24 56.72% 20.51% 22.77% -0.96 9
2014-05-10 Arizona United SC W 4-0 1563.24 1452.67 57.43% 20.30% 22.27% +11.11 12
2014-05-17 @ OKC Energy FC W 4-1 1574.35 1504.24 44.23% 23.03% 32.74% +10.21 15
2014-05-25 Charlotte Eagles W 2-0 1584.56 1498.74 54.25% 21.21% 24.54% +6.45 18
2014-05-31 @ Rochester Rhinos T 0-0 1591.01 1461.78 52.36% 21.68% 25.96% -0.82 19
2014-06-01 @ Harrisburg City Islanders W 3-2 1590.19 1481.07 49.65% 22.25% 28.10% +3.47 22
2014-06-08 Harrisburg City Islanders W 1-0 1593.66 1477.47 58.14% 20.07% 21.79% +3.04 25
2014-06-15 Wilmington Hammerheads T 2-2 1596.70 1504.63 55.06% 20.99% 23.95% -0.65 26
2014-06-22 @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds W 3-1 1596.05 1429.07 57.27% 20.35% 22.39% +5.10 29
2014-06-29 @ Wilmington Hammerheads T 1-1 1601.15 1505.28 47.83% 22.57% 29.60% -0.50 30
2014-07-13 Sacramento Republic W 2-1 1600.65 1506.51 55.33% 20.92% 23.75% +3.12 33
2014-07-20 Charleston Battery W 4-0 1603.77 1521.16 53.83% 21.32% 24.85% +12.38 36
2014-07-23 @ Charleston Battery T 1-1 1616.15 1508.79 49.41% 22.30% 28.29% -0.58 37
2014-07-27 Harrisburg City Islanders W 2-1 1615.57 1501.08 57.93% 20.14% 21.93% +2.89 40
2014-08-02 @ Wilmington Hammerheads W 3-1 1618.46 1495.05 51.58% 21.86% 26.56% +6.01 43
2014-08-10 Charlotte Eagles W 2-1 1624.47 1478.23 61.84% 18.79% 19.38% +2.53 46
2014-08-17 Dayton Dutch Lions T 1-1 1627.00 1416.15 69.22% 15.73% 15.05% -1.55 47
2014-08-24 Orlando City SC L 2-3 1625.45 1618.76 43.43% 23.10% 33.47% -4.94 47
2014-08-31 @ Orange County Blues FC T 1-1 1620.51 1423.70 60.97% 19.10% 19.93% -1.17 48
2014-09-02 @ Los Angeles Galaxy II T 1-1 1619.34 1534.25 46.34% 22.79% 30.88% -0.41 49
2014-09-07 @ Orlando City SC L 0-1 1618.93 1625.20 33.53% 23.11% 43.37% -4.51 49
2014-04-06 @ Orlando City SC L 1-3 1458.30 1567.89 22.36% 20.33% 57.31% -5.09 0
2014-04-12 @ Dayton Dutch Lions T 1-1 1453.21 1481.16 30.81% 22.78% 46.42% +0.42 1
2014-04-27 Charleston Battery W 1-0 1453.63 1524.24 32.67% 23.02% 44.30% +5.61 4
2014-05-03 @ Richmond Kickers T 1-1 1459.24 1564.20 22.77% 20.51% 56.72% +0.95 5
2014-05-04 @ Wilmington Hammerheads T 0-0 1460.19 1476.55 32.24% 22.97% 44.79% +0.38 6
2014-05-11 Orlando City SC T 1-1 1460.57 1590.90 25.85% 21.65% 52.51% +0.73 7
2014-05-18 @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds W 1-0 1461.30 1451.39 35.68% 23.26% 41.06% +5.29 10
2014-05-24 Sacramento Republic L 0-1 1466.59 1509.54 36.35% 23.28% 40.37% -4.81 10
2014-05-31 Richmond Kickers T 0-0 1461.78 1591.01 25.96% 21.68% 52.36% +0.81 11
2014-06-02 @ Dayton Dutch Lions W 1-0 1462.59 1454.37 35.45% 23.24% 41.30% +5.32 14
2014-06-08 Pittsburgh Riverhounds L 2-3 1467.91 1431.04 47.65% 22.60% 29.75% -5.33 14
2014-06-12 @ Los Angeles Galaxy II W 2-1 1462.58 1548.22 24.56% 21.22% 54.22% +6.24 17
2014-06-15 @ Arizona United SC L 0-1 1468.82 1431.97 39.49% 23.31% 37.20% -5.13 17
2014-06-21 Dayton Dutch Lions W 2-0 1463.69 1440.69 45.72% 22.86% 31.41% +8.05 20
2014-06-23 @ OKC Energy FC T 0-0 1471.74 1485.79 32.53% 23.01% 44.47% +0.36 21
2014-06-29 Charlotte Eagles L 0-1 1472.10 1490.56 39.84% 23.30% 36.87% -5.17 21
2014-07-05 @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds L 0-2 1466.93 1423.90 40.38% 23.28% 36.34% -9.84 21
2014-07-20 Wilmington Hammerheads L 0-1 1457.09 1500.43 36.30% 23.28% 40.42% -4.81 21
2014-07-27 Orlando City SC W 1-0 1452.28 1632.67 21.24% 19.81% 58.95% +7.08 24
2014-08-02 Charleston Battery T 0-0 1459.36 1516.39 34.44% 23.18% 42.38% +0.23 25
2014-08-11 Orange County Blues FC L 0-1 1459.59 1440.86 45.13% 22.93% 31.94% -5.70 25
2014-08-16 @ Charleston Battery L 1-2 1453.89 1518.69 26.66% 21.88% 51.46% -3.48 25
2014-08-17 @ Charlotte Eagles L 1-3 1450.41 1475.70 31.13% 22.82% 46.05% -6.92 25
2014-08-24 Harrisburg City Islanders T 2-2 1443.49 1511.48 33.01% 23.06% 43.93% +0.21 26
2014-08-31 @ Harrisburg City Islanders W 4-1 1443.70 1511.26 26.37% 21.80% 51.83% +14.72 29
2014-09-07 Wilmington Hammerheads W 2-0 1458.42 1507.67 35.49% 23.25% 41.27% +10.01 32
2014-03-30 @ Los Angeles Galaxy II T 1-1 1500.00 1507.71 33.34% 23.09% 43.57% +0.27 1
2014-04-13 @ Orange County Blues FC L 1-2 1500.27 1490.31 35.69% 23.26% 41.06% -4.47 1
2014-04-14 @ Los Angeles Galaxy II W 3-0 1495.80 1514.21 31.98% 22.94% 45.08% +15.59 4
2014-04-20 @ Arizona United SC L 1-2 1511.39 1442.08 44.12% 23.04% 32.84% -5.27 4
2014-04-27 Harrisburg City Islanders L 1-2 1506.12 1494.06 44.19% 23.03% 32.78% -5.29 4
2014-05-04 Orange County Blues FC W 2-1 1500.83 1483.99 44.86% 22.96% 32.18% +4.11 7
2014-05-18 Los Angeles Galaxy II W 2-1 1504.94 1524.22 39.72% 23.30% 36.98% +4.60 10
2014-05-24 @ Rochester Rhinos W 1-0 1509.54 1466.59 40.37% 23.28% 36.35% +4.81 13
2014-05-26 @ Dayton Dutch Lions W 2-1 1514.35 1458.73 42.18% 23.19% 34.63% +4.37 16
2014-06-08 Arizona United SC T 1-1 1518.72 1436.31 53.80% 21.33% 24.87% -0.80 17
2014-06-15 @ OKC Energy FC L 0-2 1517.92 1475.97 40.22% 23.29% 36.49% -9.82 17
2014-06-27 Arizona United SC W 1-0 1508.10 1437.56 52.23% 21.71% 26.06% +3.62 20
2014-06-29 @ OKC Energy FC L 0-2 1511.72 1485.43 37.97% 23.32% 38.71% -9.39 20
2014-07-08 Orange County Blues FC W 2-1 1502.33 1490.21 44.20% 23.03% 32.77% +4.18 23
2014-07-13 @ Richmond Kickers L 1-2 1506.51 1600.65 23.75% 20.92% 55.33% -3.12 23
2014-07-15 @ Charlotte Eagles W 1-0 1503.39 1485.84 36.74% 23.29% 39.97% +5.18 26
2014-07-18 Orlando City SC T 0-0 1508.57 1633.45 26.41% 21.81% 51.78% +0.78 27
2014-07-28 Pittsburgh Riverhounds W 5-0 1509.35 1436.82 52.49% 21.65% 25.86% +15.83 30
2014-08-03 @ Arizona United SC W 2-1 1525.18 1439.70 46.39% 22.78% 30.83% +3.97 33
2014-08-10 OKC Energy FC W 2-1 1529.15 1512.08 44.89% 22.96% 32.15% +4.11 36
2014-08-18 @ Orange County Blues FC W 6-1 1533.26 1443.30 47.01% 22.69% 30.29% +15.12 39
2014-08-21 Wilmington Hammerheads W 2-0 1548.38 1482.88 51.56% 21.86% 26.58% +6.95 42
2014-08-28 Charleston Battery W 3-1 1555.33 1531.58 45.83% 22.85% 31.32% +6.96 45
2014-08-31 @ Wilmington Hammerheads T 0-0 1562.29 1491.57 44.32% 23.02% 32.66% -0.35 46
2014-09-05 OKC Energy FC W 1-0 1561.94 1482.10 53.46% 21.41% 25.12% +3.50 49
2014-09-07 Los Angeles Galaxy II L 1-2 1565.44 1534.67 46.81% 22.72% 30.47% -5.53 49
2014-04-06 Harrisburg City Islanders T 0-0 1482.16 1511.14 38.32% 23.32% 38.36% +0.00 1
2014-04-13 @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds W 4-3 1482.16 1458.38 37.62% 23.31% 39.07% +4.44 4
2014-04-27 Charlotte Eagles L 0-2 1486.60 1493.48 41.50% 23.23% 35.27% -10.05 4
2014-05-04 Rochester Rhinos T 0-0 1476.55 1460.19 44.79% 22.97% 32.24% -0.38 5
2014-05-11 @ Charleston Battery W 1-0 1476.17 1545.57 26.18% 21.75% 52.08% +6.40 8
2014-05-18 Charleston Battery W 1-0 1482.57 1539.17 34.50% 23.19% 42.32% +5.42 11
2014-05-24 Pittsburgh Riverhounds W 5-1 1487.99 1446.10 48.35% 22.48% 29.17% +11.95 14
2014-06-01 @ Charlotte Eagles W 2-1 1499.94 1492.30 35.37% 23.24% 41.39% +5.01 17
2014-06-07 OKC Energy FC T 2-2 1504.95 1475.35 46.65% 22.74% 30.61% -0.32 18
2014-06-15 @ Richmond Kickers T 2-2 1504.63 1596.70 23.95% 20.99% 55.06% +0.65 19
2014-06-29 Richmond Kickers T 1-1 1505.28 1601.15 29.60% 22.57% 47.83% +0.49 20
2014-07-13 @ Orlando City SC L 0-2 1505.77 1627.86 21.29% 19.83% 58.88% -5.59 20
2014-07-19 @ Harrisburg City Islanders T 0-0 1500.18 1501.49 34.18% 23.16% 42.66% +0.25 21
2014-07-20 @ Rochester Rhinos W 1-0 1500.43 1457.09 40.42% 23.28% 36.30% +4.81 24
2014-07-26 Arizona United SC T 0-0 1505.24 1446.00 50.71% 22.04% 27.24% -0.72 25
2014-07-27 @ Charlotte Eagles L 0-2 1504.52 1475.09 38.42% 23.32% 38.26% -9.47 25
2014-08-02 Richmond Kickers L 1-3 1495.05 1618.46 26.56% 21.86% 51.58% -6.02 25
2014-08-10 Dayton Dutch Lions L 1-2 1489.03 1410.00 53.36% 21.44% 25.20% -6.15 25
2014-08-21 @ Sacramento Republic L 0-2 1482.88 1548.38 26.58% 21.86% 51.56% -6.95 25
2014-08-24 @ Orange County Blues FC W 2-1 1475.93 1428.18 41.05% 23.26% 35.69% +4.47 28
2014-08-24 @ Los Angeles Galaxy II T 3-3 1480.40 1534.63 27.79% 22.18% 50.03% +0.38 29
2014-08-29 Orlando City SC W 3-1 1480.78 1623.71 24.60% 21.23% 54.17% +10.79 32
2014-08-31 Sacramento Republic T 0-0 1491.57 1562.29 32.66% 23.02% 44.32% +0.34 33
2014-09-04 Orlando City SC T 0-0 1491.91 1626.05 25.46% 21.53% 53.01% +0.85 34
2014-09-06 @ Dayton Dutch Lions W 4-0 1492.76 1404.57 46.77% 22.73% 30.50% +14.91 37
2014-09-07 @ Rochester Rhinos L 0-2 1507.67 1458.42 41.27% 23.25% 35.49% -10.01 37

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from the selected team's perspective.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Record
2014-09-13 @ Richmond Kickers L 1-2 1540.47 1614.42 35.62% 0.00% 64.38% -3.37 0-1
2014-09-13 @ Orlando City SC W 1-0 1500.59 1629.71 28.71% 0.00% 71.29% +7.15 1-0
2014-09-20 @ Richmond Kickers W 3-2 1507.74 1617.79 31.01% 0.00% 68.99% +6.19 2-0
2014-09-27 @ Sacramento Republic L 0-2 1513.93 1572.32 37.70% 0.00% 62.30% -7.13 2-1
2014-09-13 Rochester Rhinos W 2-1 1540.20 1468.43 64.09% 0.00% 35.91% +3.40 1-0
2014-09-20 @ Sacramento Republic L 2-3 1543.60 1568.52 42.32% 0.00% 57.68% -3.80 1-1
2014-09-13 Harrisburg City Islanders L 0-1 1629.71 1500.59 71.29% 0.00% 28.71% -7.15 0-1
2014-09-13 Charleston Battery W 2-1 1614.42 1540.47 64.38% 0.00% 35.62% +3.37 1-0
2014-09-20 Harrisburg City Islanders L 2-3 1617.79 1507.74 68.99% 0.00% 31.01% -6.19 1-1
2014-09-13 @ Los Angeles Galaxy II L 1-2 1468.43 1540.20 35.91% 0.00% 64.09% -3.40 0-1
2014-09-13 Wilmington Hammerheads W 4-1 1559.91 1497.66 62.82% 0.00% 37.18% +8.61 1-0
2014-09-20 Los Angeles Galaxy II W 3-2 1568.52 1543.60 57.68% 0.00% 42.32% +3.80 2-0
2014-09-27 Harrisburg City Islanders W 2-0 1572.32 1513.93 62.30% 0.00% 37.70% +7.13 3-0
2014-09-13 @ Sacramento Republic L 1-4 1497.66 1559.91 37.18% 0.00% 62.82% -8.61 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2014-07-27 21.24% @ Rochester Rhinos 1452.28 1 Orlando City SC 1632.67 0
2 2014-08-21 24.05% @ Charlotte Eagles 1482.63 2 Orlando City SC 1631.36 0
3 2014-06-12 24.56% Rochester Rhinos 1462.58 2 @ Los Angeles Galaxy II 1548.22 1
4 2014-08-29 24.60% @ Wilmington Hammerheads 1480.78 3 Orlando City SC 1623.71 1
5 2014-08-10 25.20% Dayton Dutch Lions 1410.00 2 @ Wilmington Hammerheads 1489.03 1
6 2014-08-15 25.58% Arizona United SC 1432.74 2 @ OKC Energy FC 1507.97 1
7 2014-05-11 26.18% Wilmington Hammerheads 1476.17 1 @ Charleston Battery 1545.57 0
8 2014-07-06 26.26% Dayton Dutch Lions 1427.14 3 @ Charlotte Eagles 1495.73 1
9 2014-08-31 26.37% Rochester Rhinos 1443.70 4 @ Harrisburg City Islanders 1511.26 1
10 2014-08-30 26.46% Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1428.54 1 @ Charlotte Eagles 1495.22 0
11 2014-08-10 26.81% @ Harrisburg City Islanders 1510.92 3 Orlando City SC 1631.92 2
12 2014-07-13 27.03% Arizona United SC 1424.84 2 @ Orange County Blues FC 1486.04 1
13 2014-08-03 27.37% @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1420.98 3 Los Angeles Galaxy II 1536.80 1
14 2014-09-13 * 28.71% Harrisburg City Islanders 1500.59 1 @ Orlando City SC 1629.71 0
15 2014-05-11 29.36% Orange County Blues FC 1470.04 1 @ OKC Energy FC 1510.24 0
16 2014-05-11 29.46% Arizona United SC 1441.57 1 @ Harrisburg City Islanders 1480.90 0
17 2014-06-08 29.75% Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1431.04 3 @ Rochester Rhinos 1467.91 2
18 2014-09-07 30.47% Los Angeles Galaxy II 1534.67 2 @ Sacramento Republic 1565.44 1
19 2014-04-20 30.51% Dayton Dutch Lions 1480.74 1 @ Harrisburg City Islanders 1511.14 0
20 2014-09-20 * 31.01% Harrisburg City Islanders 1507.74 3 @ Richmond Kickers 1617.79 2
21 2014-08-11 31.94% Orange County Blues FC 1440.86 1 @ Rochester Rhinos 1459.59 0
22 2014-04-05 31.97% Dayton Dutch Lions 1475.46 1 @ Charlotte Eagles 1493.91 0
23 2014-04-14 31.98% Sacramento Republic 1495.80 3 @ Los Angeles Galaxy II 1514.21 0
24 2014-07-03 32.55% Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1418.59 2 @ Dayton Dutch Lions 1432.45 1
25 2014-04-27 32.67% @ Rochester Rhinos 1453.63 1 Charleston Battery 1524.24 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2014-05-26 18.68 @ Los Angeles Galaxy II 5 1519.62 46.09% OKC Energy FC 0 1494.03 31.09% 22.82%
2 2014-05-03 18.44 Charleston Battery 4 1518.62 36.98% @ Harrisburg City Islanders 0 1499.34 39.72% 23.30%
3 2014-04-13 17.15 OKC Energy FC 4 1503.48 40.55% @ Arizona United SC 0 1459.23 36.17% 23.28%
4 2014-07-27 16.15 Los Angeles Galaxy II 4 1529.27 43.32% @ Orange County Blues FC 0 1465.59 33.57% 23.11%
5 2014-07-28 15.84 @ Sacramento Republic 5 1509.35 52.49% Pittsburgh Riverhounds 0 1436.82 25.86% 21.65%
6 2014-04-14 15.59 Sacramento Republic 3 1495.80 31.98% @ Los Angeles Galaxy II 0 1514.21 45.08% 22.94%
7 2014-08-18 15.12 Sacramento Republic 6 1533.26 47.01% @ Orange County Blues FC 1 1443.30 30.29% 22.69%
8 2014-09-06 14.91 Wilmington Hammerheads 4 1492.76 46.77% @ Dayton Dutch Lions 0 1404.57 30.50% 22.73%
9 2014-08-31 14.72 Rochester Rhinos 4 1443.70 26.37% @ Harrisburg City Islanders 1 1511.26 51.83% 21.80%
10 2014-04-28 14.59 Los Angeles Galaxy II 3 1505.82 35.32% @ Orange County Blues FC 0 1498.58 41.44% 23.24%
11 2014-07-20 14.52 @ Arizona United SC 3 1431.49 35.57% Orange County Blues FC 0 1480.11 41.18% 23.25%
12 2014-04-27 13.44 Richmond Kickers 5 1550.76 43.39% @ Dayton Dutch Lions 1 1486.60 33.50% 23.11%
13 2014-09-01 13.13 @ Orlando City SC 7 1612.92 67.51% Dayton Dutch Lions 0 1417.70 16.00% 16.49%
14 2014-06-15 13.07 @ Charleston Battery 3 1529.96 40.76% Los Angeles Galaxy II 0 1541.99 35.97% 23.27%
15 2014-08-21 12.60 @ Charlotte Eagles 2 1482.63 24.05% Orlando City SC 0 1631.36 54.92% 21.03%
16 2014-07-20 12.38 @ Richmond Kickers 4 1603.77 53.83% Charleston Battery 0 1521.16 24.85% 21.32%
17 2014-07-06 12.37 @ Harrisburg City Islanders 4 1481.58 35.05% Charleston Battery 1 1534.07 41.73% 23.22%
18 2014-07-27 12.09 OKC Energy FC 3 1496.21 44.32% @ Dayton Dutch Lions 0 1425.46 32.66% 23.02%
19 2014-08-31 12.05 @ Charleston Battery 4 1524.62 54.76% Pittsburgh Riverhounds 0 1434.90 24.17% 21.08%
20 2014-05-24 11.95 @ Wilmington Hammerheads 5 1487.99 48.35% Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1 1446.10 29.17% 22.48%
21 2014-04-25 11.22 @ Orange County Blues FC 4 1487.36 39.92% Harrisburg City Islanders 1 1505.28 36.79% 23.30%
22 2014-05-10 11.11 @ Richmond Kickers 4 1563.24 57.43% Arizona United SC 0 1452.67 22.27% 20.30%
23 2014-08-29 10.79 @ Wilmington Hammerheads 3 1480.78 24.60% Orlando City SC 1 1623.71 54.17% 21.23%
24 2014-07-06 10.43 Dayton Dutch Lions 3 1427.14 26.26% @ Charlotte Eagles 1 1495.73 51.97% 21.77%
25 2014-04-06 10.26 OKC Energy FC 2 1500.00 34.27% @ Orange County Blues FC 0 1500.57 42.56% 23.17%