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1932-33 Segunda División Season

90 games

Final

Promoted

Real Ovido

27 pts

Relegated

Castellon

4 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Atletico Madrid

6.34 points above expected

24 points · 17.66 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Castellon

6.07 points below expected

4 points · 10.07 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Real Oviedo 18 12 3 3 27 58 26 +32 21.05 +5.95
2 Atletico Madrid 18 10 4 4 24 40 35 +5 17.66 +6.34
3 Real Union 18 9 2 7 20 51 36 +15 19.37 +0.63
4 Deportivo La Coruna 18 8 4 6 20 38 38 0 19.32 +0.68
5 Real Murcia 18 9 2 7 20 33 41 -8 18.06 +1.94
6 Sporting Gijon 18 8 2 8 18 49 40 +9 20.36 -2.36
7 Osasuna 18 7 3 8 17 45 47 -2 19.53 -2.53
8 Celta Vigo 18 8 1 9 17 36 38 -2 17.01 -0.01
9 Sevilla 18 5 3 10 13 29 38 -9 17.57 -4.57
10 Castellon Relegated 18 2 0 16 4 14 54 -40 10.07 -6.07

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Real Oviedo 1634 27 21.05 +5.95 98.1% 9 16 19 21 23 26 32
Atletico Madrid 1525 24 17.66 +6.34 98.7% 5 13 16 18 20 23 30
Real Union 1519 20 19.37 +0.63 63.4% 6 14 17 19 22 25 30
Sporting Gijon 1490 18 20.36 -2.36 27.8% 9 15 18 20 22 26 32
Deportivo La Coruna 1485 20 19.32 +0.68 64.6% 8 14 17 19 21 24 30
Real Murcia 1481 20 18.06 +1.94 78.1% 6 13 16 18 20 23 30
Osasuna 1465 17 19.53 -2.53 25.4% 9 14 17 20 22 24 32
Sevilla 1422 13 17.57 -4.57 10.2% 5 12 15 18 20 23 29
Celta Vigo 1409 17 17.01 -0.01 56.1% 5 12 15 17 19 22 29
Castellon 1345 4 10.07 -6.07 1.6% 0 6 8 10 12 15 20

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AM CAS CV DLC OSA RM RO RU SEV SG
Atletico Madrid —
2-0-0
3.11
2-0-0
3.07
0-2-0
2.86
0-1-1
2.84
1-0-1
2.83
1-0-1
2.21
1-0-1
2.65
1-1-0
2.73
2-0-0
2.61
Castellon
0-0-2
2.54
 —
0-0-2
2.82
0-0-2
2.30
1-0-1
2.27
0-0-2
2.42
0-0-2
2.22
1-0-1
2.07
0-0-2
2.63
0-0-2
2.08
Celta Vigo
0-0-2
2.58
2-0-0
2.83
 —
1-0-1
2.46
1-0-1
2.42
1-0-1
2.54
1-0-1
1.96
1-0-1
2.26
1-1-0
2.51
0-0-2
2.33
Deportivo La Coruna
0-2-0
2.79
2-0-0
3.35
1-0-1
3.19
 —
1-0-1
2.84
0-1-1
2.79
1-0-1
2.41
1-0-1
2.49
1-1-0
2.94
1-0-1
2.69
Osasuna
1-1-0
2.81
1-0-1
3.38
1-0-1
3.23
1-0-1
2.81
 —
1-0-1
2.81
0-1-1
2.38
0-1-1
2.69
1-0-1
2.92
1-0-1
2.75
Real Murcia
1-0-1
2.83
2-0-0
3.23
1-0-1
3.11
1-1-0
2.86
1-0-1
2.84
 —
0-0-2
2.56
1-0-1
2.63
1-0-1
2.90
1-1-0
2.57
Real Oviedo
1-0-1
3.44
2-0-0
3.43
1-0-1
3.69
1-0-1
3.25
1-1-0
3.28
2-0-0
3.10
 —
1-1-0
3.20
2-0-0
3.50
1-1-0
3.13
Real Union
1-0-1
3.00
1-0-1
3.59
1-0-1
3.40
1-0-1
3.16
1-1-0
2.97
1-0-1
3.02
0-1-1
2.45
 —
2-0-0
2.98
1-0-1
2.93
Sevilla
0-1-1
2.93
2-0-0
3.03
0-1-1
3.14
0-1-1
2.71
1-0-1
2.73
1-0-1
2.75
0-0-2
2.15
0-0-2
2.67
 —
1-0-1
2.61
Sporting Gijon
0-0-2
3.04
2-0-0
3.57
2-0-0
3.32
1-0-1
2.96
1-0-1
2.90
0-1-1
3.08
0-1-1
2.53
1-0-1
2.72
1-0-1
3.05
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.69 +4.1
Allowed 0.74 -7.3
Differential 0.81 +3.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.22%2.22%2.78%2.78%1.67%1.67%13.33%
12.22%4.44%6.11%5.00%2.22%8.89%28.89%
22.78%6.11%3.33%2.22%2.22%1.67%18.33%
32.78%5.00%2.22%3.33%1.67%—15.00%
41.67%2.22%2.22%1.67%——7.78%
5+1.67%8.89%1.67%——4.44%16.67%
Total13.33%28.89%18.33%15.00%7.78%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.14 2.14 +0.00
SD 2.03 2.03 3.12
CV 0.95 0.95 —
Max 9 9 +8
Min -1 -1 -8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—————11.11%
15.56%5.56%——5.56%16.67%33.33%
211.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4——11.11%5.56%——16.67%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total33.33%16.67%22.22%5.56%5.56%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 1.94 +0.28
SD 1.93 2.10 3.01
CV 0.87 1.08 —
Max 8 7 +7
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%—11.11%5.56%27.78%
1———11.11%5.56%16.67%33.33%
2—5.56%————5.56%
35.56%———5.56%—11.11%
4———————
5+—————22.22%22.22%
Total5.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%22.22%44.44%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.56 2.78 -2.22
SD 1.25 3.00 2.82
CV 2.24 1.08 —
Max 3 8 +3
Min -1 -1 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
1—5.56%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
2—11.11%—5.56%5.56%5.56%27.78%
35.56%———5.56%—11.11%
4—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
5+—————5.56%5.56%
Total5.56%33.33%22.22%16.67%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 2.06 -0.11
SD 1.51 1.80 2.32
CV 0.78 0.87 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min -1 -1 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
1—16.67%——5.56%16.67%38.89%
2———————
3—11.11%————11.11%
45.56%——5.56%——11.11%
5+11.11%—5.56%——5.56%22.22%
Total22.22%33.33%11.11%5.56%5.56%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 2.06 +0.00
SD 2.18 2.58 3.63
CV 1.06 1.25 —
Max 7 8 +5
Min -1 -1 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.56%—5.56%11.11%
1——16.67%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
2——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
3——5.56%11.11%——16.67%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+—16.67%———5.56%22.22%
Total5.56%16.67%33.33%22.22%—22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.44 2.56 -0.11
SD 2.31 2.23 3.63
CV 0.94 0.87 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min -1 -1 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.56%——5.56%
111.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%—11.11%44.44%
2—16.67%5.56%—5.56%—27.78%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total11.11%38.89%16.67%16.67%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 2.28 -0.44
SD 1.25 2.24 2.89
CV 0.68 0.99 —
Max 5 9 +4
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.56%——5.56%
1——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
211.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
35.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%——27.78%
4———————
5+—27.78%————27.78%
Total16.67%44.44%16.67%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.22 1.44 +1.78
SD 2.16 1.04 2.69
CV 0.67 0.72 —
Max 8 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%5.56%—5.56%16.67%
15.56%—5.56%——5.56%16.67%
2—11.11%5.56%—11.11%—27.78%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
4———————
5+5.56%16.67%————22.22%
Total16.67%33.33%16.67%11.11%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.83 2.00 +0.83
SD 2.66 1.64 3.75
CV 0.94 0.82 —
Max 9 5 +8
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%——5.56%—16.67%
1—11.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%11.11%50.00%
2———5.56%——5.56%
3—16.67%————16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total11.11%33.33%22.22%11.11%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 2.11 -0.50
SD 1.42 1.57 2.41
CV 0.88 0.74 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
1———5.56%—5.56%11.11%
25.56%—5.56%11.11%—5.56%27.78%
3—5.56%—5.56%5.56%—16.67%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+—16.67%5.56%——5.56%27.78%
Total5.56%27.78%16.67%27.78%5.56%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.67 2.17 +0.50
SD 2.28 1.62 2.81
CV 0.85 0.75 —
Max 8 5 +6
Min -1 -1 -4

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Atletico Madrid 24 17.66 +6.34
2 Real Oviedo 27 21.05 +5.95
3 Real Murcia 20 18.06 +1.94
4 Deportivo La Coruna 20 19.32 +0.68
5 Real Union 20 19.37 +0.63

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Castellon 4 10.07 -6.07
2 Sevilla 13 17.57 -4.57
3 Osasuna 17 19.53 -2.53
4 Sporting Gijon 18 20.36 -2.36
5 Celta Vigo 17 17.01 -0.01

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Real Oviedo 4 Jan 22 – Feb 12 1 in 28
2 Celta Vigo 3 Feb 5 – Feb 19 1 in 20
3 Real Union 4 Dec 4 – Dec 25 1 in 20
4 Atletico Madrid 4 Feb 19 – Mar 12 1 in 13
5 Sporting Gijon 4 Dec 25 – Jan 15 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Castellon 9 Jan 29 – Mar 26 1 in 2,303
2 Real Murcia 3 Jan 15 – Jan 29 1 in 22
3 Osasuna 2 Dec 18 – Dec 25 1 in 10
4 Atletico Madrid 2 Dec 4 – Dec 11 1 in 10
5 Sporting Gijon 2 Feb 5 – Feb 12 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Atletico Madrid 9 Jan 15 – Mar 12 1 in 78
2 Celta Vigo 4 Feb 5 – Feb 26 1 in 19
3 Real Murcia 4 Nov 27 – Dec 18 1 in 10
4 Real Oviedo 5 Dec 11 – Jan 8 1 in 10
5 Osasuna 3 Feb 12 – Feb 26 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Castellon 9 Jan 29 – Mar 26 1 in 80
2 Sevilla 7 Feb 12 – Mar 26 1 in 75
3 Atletico Madrid 4 Nov 27 – Dec 18 1 in 13
4 Deportivo La Coruna 4 Jan 29 – Feb 19 1 in 12
5 Osasuna 3 Dec 18 – Jan 1 1 in 9

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Real Oviedo30.53%18.78%14.31%10.49%8.39%6.57%4.94%3.72%1.99%0.28%
Atletico Madrid4.58%7.31%8.29%10.53%11.86%13.17%13.89%14.42%13.57%2.38%
Real Union13.30%14.02%13.22%12.78%11.91%10.16%9.34%8.83%5.47%0.97%
Deportivo La Coruna9.84%12.54%12.98%13.21%12.17%11.64%10.70%9.34%6.89%0.69%
Real Murcia4.90%6.83%8.83%10.20%12.06%12.68%13.92%14.50%14.21%1.87%
Sporting Gijon19.04%17.25%15.15%12.58%10.83%8.98%7.10%5.41%3.34%0.32%
Osasuna10.91%13.06%13.14%13.50%12.17%11.64%10.51%8.36%6.14%0.57%
Celta Vigo2.93%4.38%6.75%8.11%10.26%12.49%14.34%16.92%20.50%3.32%
Sevilla3.97%5.83%7.30%8.57%10.24%12.36%14.51%16.26%18.22%2.74%
Castellon——0.03%0.03%0.11%0.31%0.75%2.24%9.67%86.86%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+42.22%
Strong Edge
64.44%13.33%22.22%
Elo Value
Home Edge
92 Elo
0.011 goals per Elo point
0175.73250
Scoring Tilt
Expected +1.91 goals
+1.86 goals
Strong Home
-2+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.7
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
31%
Real Oviedo, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.17/gm
Tight Race
00.110.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.5 * Some Luck: 2.5 to 3.74 * Lucky: 3.74 to 4.99 * Wild Swing: 4.99 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.65 * Close: 1.65 to 2.47 * Off: 2.47 to 3.29 * Way Off: 3.29 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.5 * A Surprise: 0.5 to 0.8 * Several Surprises: 0.8 to 1.1 * Many Surprises: 1.1 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.87 points
Lucky
03.128
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.80
Close
02.065
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
98.65%
Atletico Madrid
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
1.61%
Castellon
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 1
As Expected
00.11

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.47
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
61%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
84%
Strong Edge
50%81%100%
Close Games
Expected
42%
Frequent
0%35%100%
Blowouts
Expected
38%
Very Frequent
0%44%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.50
Highly Predictable
00.502
Matchup Imbalance
0.59
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.62
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.67
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Chalky
0%17%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
22%
As Expected
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
0.19
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.63
Very Underconfident
0.1787521.001.82125
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.089
Well Within Noise
00.1200.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Same level Direct relegation
Real Oviedo 30.53% 69.19% 0.28%
Sporting Gijon 19.04% 80.64% 0.32%
Real Union 13.30% 85.73% 0.97%
Osasuna 10.91% 88.52% 0.57%
Deportivo La Coruna 9.84% 89.47% 0.69%
Real Murcia 4.90% 93.23% 1.87%
Atletico Madrid 4.58% 93.04% 2.38%
Sevilla 3.97% 93.29% 2.74%
Celta Vigo 2.93% 93.75% 3.32%
Castellon — 13.14% 86.86%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1932-11-27 Deportivo La Coruna D 0-0 1489 1468 68.8% 17.3% 13.9% -3.6 1
1932-11-27 @ Atletico Madrid D 0-0 1468 1489 13.9% 17.3% 68.8% +3.6 1
1932-11-27 Real Union W 4-2 1385 1505 55.4% 17.7% 26.9% +10.4 2
1932-11-27 @ Celta Vigo L 2-4 1505 1385 26.9% 17.7% 55.4% -10.4 0
1932-11-27 Osasuna W 2-1 1491 1465 69.1% 17.3% 13.6% +3.6 2
1932-11-27 @ Real Murcia L 1-2 1465 1491 13.6% 17.3% 69.1% -3.6 0
1932-11-27 Castellon W 8-1 1532 1474 71.3% 17.2% 11.5% +16.4 2
1932-11-27 @ Real Oviedo L 1-8 1474 1532 11.5% 17.2% 71.3% -16.3 0
1932-11-27 Sporting Gijon W 5-2 1461 1503 63.6% 17.5% 18.9% +10.4 2
1932-11-27 @ Sevilla L 2-5 1503 1461 18.9% 17.5% 63.6% -10.4 0
1932-12-04 Sevilla L 1-3 1457 1472 66.0% 17.5% 16.5% -25.7 0
1932-12-04 @ Castellon W 3-1 1472 1457 16.5% 17.5% 66.0% +25.7 4
1932-12-04 Real Oviedo W 3-1 1472 1549 60.2% 17.6% 22.2% +9.8 3
1932-12-04 @ Deportivo La Coruna L 1-3 1549 1472 22.2% 17.6% 60.2% -9.8 2
1932-12-04 Celta Vigo W 4-2 1462 1396 71.8% 17.1% 11.1% +4.6 2
1932-12-04 @ Osasuna L 2-4 1396 1462 11.1% 17.1% 71.8% -4.6 2
1932-12-04 Atletico Madrid W 7-1 1495 1486 67.9% 17.4% 14.8% +17.9 2
1932-12-04 @ Real Union L 1-7 1486 1495 14.8% 17.4% 67.9% -17.9 1
1932-12-04 Real Murcia D 2-2 1493 1494 67.1% 17.4% 15.5% -2.2 1
1932-12-04 @ Sporting Gijon D 2-2 1494 1493 15.5% 17.4% 67.1% +2.2 3
1932-12-11 Osasuna L 1-5 1468 1466 67.3% 17.4% 15.3% -47.8 1
1932-12-11 @ Atletico Madrid W 5-1 1466 1468 15.3% 17.4% 67.3% +47.8 4
1932-12-11 Castellon W 4-1 1391 1432 63.7% 17.5% 18.8% +11.9 4
1932-12-11 @ Celta Vigo L 1-4 1432 1391 18.8% 17.5% 63.7% -11.9 0
1932-12-11 Deportivo La Coruna W 1-0 1497 1482 68.3% 17.4% 14.3% +4.0 5
1932-12-11 @ Real Murcia L 0-1 1482 1497 14.3% 17.4% 68.3% -4.0 3
1932-12-11 Sporting Gijon D 3-3 1539 1491 70.7% 17.2% 12.1% -2.1 3
1932-12-11 @ Real Oviedo D 3-3 1491 1539 12.1% 17.2% 70.7% +2.1 2
1932-12-11 Sevilla W 1-0 1513 1497 68.3% 17.4% 14.3% +4.0 4
1932-12-11 @ Real Union L 0-1 1497 1513 14.3% 17.4% 68.3% -4.0 4
1932-12-18 Real Murcia L 1-3 1420 1501 59.8% 17.6% 22.6% -23.2 0
1932-12-18 @ Castellon W 3-1 1501 1420 22.6% 17.6% 59.8% +23.2 7
1932-12-18 Sporting Gijon W 4-3 1478 1493 65.9% 17.5% 16.6% +4.0 5
1932-12-18 @ Deportivo La Coruna L 3-4 1493 1478 16.6% 17.5% 65.9% -4.0 2
1932-12-18 Real Union L 1-2 1514 1517 67.0% 17.4% 15.6% -15.0 4
1932-12-18 @ Osasuna W 2-1 1517 1514 15.6% 17.4% 67.0% +15.0 6
1932-12-18 Celta Vigo W 2-1 1537 1403 75.4% 16.8% 7.8% +2.1 5
1932-12-18 @ Real Oviedo L 1-2 1403 1537 7.8% 16.8% 75.4% -2.1 4
1932-12-18 Atletico Madrid D 0-0 1493 1420 72.2% 17.1% 10.7% -4.1 5
1932-12-18 @ Sevilla D 0-0 1420 1493 10.7% 17.1% 72.2% +4.1 2
1932-12-25 Atletico Madrid L 3-4 1397 1424 64.9% 17.5% 17.6% -13.5 0
1932-12-25 @ Castellon W 4-3 1424 1397 17.6% 17.5% 64.9% +13.5 4
1932-12-25 Sevilla W 4-1 1401 1489 59.0% 17.6% 23.4% +14.5 6
1932-12-25 @ Celta Vigo L 1-4 1489 1401 23.4% 17.6% 59.0% -14.5 5
1932-12-25 Real Oviedo L 1-3 1524 1539 66.0% 17.5% 16.6% -25.6 7
1932-12-25 @ Real Murcia W 3-1 1539 1524 16.6% 17.5% 66.0% +25.6 7
1932-12-25 Deportivo La Coruna W 7-1 1532 1482 70.8% 17.2% 12.0% +14.8 8
1932-12-25 @ Real Union L 1-7 1482 1532 12.0% 17.2% 70.8% -14.8 5
1932-12-25 Osasuna W 8-2 1489 1499 66.4% 17.4% 16.2% +16.1 4
1932-12-25 @ Sporting Gijon L 2-8 1499 1489 16.2% 17.4% 66.4% -16.1 4
1933-01-01 Celta Vigo W 2-0 1438 1415 68.9% 17.3% 13.8% +7.3 6
1933-01-01 @ Atletico Madrid L 0-2 1415 1438 13.8% 17.3% 68.9% -7.3 6
1933-01-01 Castellon W 4-0 1467 1383 72.9% 17.1% 10.1% +10.4 7
1933-01-01 @ Deportivo La Coruna L 0-4 1383 1467 10.1% 17.1% 72.9% -10.4 0
1933-01-01 Real Oviedo D 3-3 1483 1564 59.7% 17.6% 22.7% -1.3 5
1933-01-01 @ Osasuna D 3-3 1564 1483 22.7% 17.6% 59.7% +1.3 8
1933-01-01 Real Murcia W 3-1 1475 1498 65.2% 17.5% 17.3% +7.8 7
1933-01-01 @ Sevilla L 1-3 1498 1475 17.3% 17.5% 65.2% -7.8 7
1933-01-01 Real Union W 5-1 1505 1546 63.6% 17.5% 18.8% +15.4 6
1933-01-01 @ Sporting Gijon L 1-5 1546 1505 18.8% 17.5% 63.6% -15.4 8
1933-01-08 Real Union W 3-0 1373 1531 50.7% 17.7% 31.6% +22.3 2
1933-01-08 @ Castellon L 0-3 1531 1373 31.6% 17.7% 50.7% -22.3 8
1933-01-08 Sporting Gijon L 3-4 1408 1520 56.3% 17.7% 26.1% -11.7 6
1933-01-08 @ Celta Vigo W 4-3 1520 1408 26.1% 17.7% 56.3% +11.7 8
1933-01-08 Deportivo La Coruna W 8-1 1482 1477 67.5% 17.4% 15.1% +21.1 7
1933-01-08 @ Osasuna L 1-8 1477 1482 15.1% 17.4% 67.5% -21.1 7
1933-01-08 Atletico Madrid W 4-1 1490 1445 70.5% 17.2% 12.3% +8.1 9
1933-01-08 @ Real Murcia L 1-4 1445 1490 12.3% 17.2% 70.5% -8.1 6
1933-01-08 Sevilla W 5-1 1566 1483 72.8% 17.1% 10.1% +8.7 10
1933-01-08 @ Real Oviedo L 1-5 1483 1566 10.1% 17.1% 72.8% -8.7 7
1933-01-15 Real Oviedo W 3-0 1437 1574 53.3% 17.7% 29.0% +20.7 8
1933-01-15 @ Atletico Madrid L 0-3 1574 1437 29.0% 17.7% 53.3% -20.7 10
1933-01-15 Celta Vigo W 7-2 1456 1396 71.4% 17.2% 11.4% +10.0 9
1933-01-15 @ Deportivo La Coruna L 2-7 1396 1456 11.4% 17.2% 71.4% -10.0 6
1933-01-15 Real Murcia W 9-1 1509 1499 68.0% 17.4% 14.6% +23.3 10
1933-01-15 @ Real Union L 1-9 1499 1509 14.6% 17.4% 68.0% -23.3 9
1933-01-15 Osasuna W 3-1 1474 1503 64.8% 17.5% 17.7% +8.0 9
1933-01-15 @ Sevilla L 1-3 1503 1474 17.7% 17.5% 64.8% -8.0 7
1933-01-15 Castellon W 6-1 1532 1395 75.6% 16.8% 7.7% +8.1 10
1933-01-15 @ Sporting Gijon L 1-6 1395 1532 7.7% 16.8% 75.6% -8.1 2
1933-01-22 Sporting Gijon W 2-0 1458 1540 59.6% 17.6% 22.8% +11.6 10
1933-01-22 @ Atletico Madrid L 0-2 1540 1458 22.8% 17.6% 59.6% -11.6 10
1933-01-22 Sevilla W 3-1 1466 1482 65.9% 17.5% 16.7% +7.6 11
1933-01-22 @ Deportivo La Coruna L 1-3 1482 1466 16.7% 17.5% 65.9% -7.6 9
1933-01-22 Castellon L 1-2 1495 1387 74.2% 16.9% 8.9% -16.7 7
1933-01-22 @ Osasuna W 2-1 1387 1495 8.9% 16.9% 74.2% +16.7 4
1933-01-22 Celta Vigo L 1-2 1475 1386 73.1% 17.0% 9.8% -16.5 9
1933-01-22 @ Real Murcia W 2-1 1386 1475 9.8% 17.0% 73.1% +16.5 8
1933-01-22 Real Union W 2-0 1554 1532 68.8% 17.3% 13.8% +7.4 12
1933-01-22 @ Real Oviedo L 0-2 1532 1554 13.8% 17.3% 68.8% -7.4 10
1933-01-29 Real Oviedo L 0-2 1404 1561 50.8% 17.7% 31.5% -23.0 4
1933-01-29 @ Castellon W 2-0 1561 1404 31.5% 17.7% 50.8% +23.0 14
1933-01-29 Atletico Madrid D 1-1 1474 1469 67.5% 17.4% 15.1% -3.1 12
1933-01-29 @ Deportivo La Coruna D 1-1 1469 1474 15.1% 17.4% 67.5% +3.1 11
1933-01-29 Real Murcia W 6-1 1478 1459 68.7% 17.3% 14.0% +14.4 9
1933-01-29 @ Osasuna L 1-6 1459 1478 14.0% 17.3% 68.7% -14.4 9
1933-01-29 Celta Vigo W 3-0 1525 1403 74.9% 16.8% 8.3% +6.6 12
1933-01-29 @ Real Union L 0-3 1403 1525 8.3% 16.8% 74.9% -6.6 8
1933-01-29 Sevilla W 5-1 1529 1474 71.1% 17.2% 11.7% +10.0 12
1933-01-29 @ Sporting Gijon L 1-5 1474 1529 11.7% 17.2% 71.1% -10.0 9
1933-02-05 Real Union W 4-2 1472 1531 62.0% 17.6% 20.4% +8.1 13
1933-02-05 @ Atletico Madrid L 2-4 1531 1472 20.4% 17.6% 62.0% -8.1 12
1933-02-05 Osasuna W 3-0 1396 1492 58.1% 17.6% 24.2% +17.7 10
1933-02-05 @ Celta Vigo L 0-3 1492 1396 24.2% 17.6% 58.1% -17.7 9
1933-02-05 Sporting Gijon W 5-1 1444 1539 58.3% 17.6% 24.1% +19.2 11
1933-02-05 @ Real Murcia L 1-5 1539 1444 24.1% 17.6% 58.3% -19.2 12
1933-02-05 Deportivo La Coruna W 6-1 1584 1471 74.5% 16.9% 8.7% +9.1 16
1933-02-05 @ Real Oviedo L 1-6 1471 1584 8.7% 16.9% 74.5% -9.1 12
1933-02-05 Castellon W 4-0 1464 1381 72.8% 17.1% 10.1% +10.4 11
1933-02-05 @ Sevilla L 0-4 1381 1464 10.1% 17.1% 72.8% -10.4 4
1933-02-12 Celta Vigo FL 1370 1414 63.4% 17.5% 19.0% +0.0 4
1933-02-12 @ Castellon FW 1414 1370 19.0% 17.5% 63.4% +0.0 12
1933-02-12 Real Murcia D 1-1 1462 1464 67.0% 17.4% 15.6% -3.0 13
1933-02-12 @ Deportivo La Coruna D 1-1 1464 1462 15.6% 17.4% 67.0% +3.0 12
1933-02-12 Atletico Madrid D 2-2 1475 1481 66.7% 17.4% 15.9% -2.2 10
1933-02-12 @ Osasuna D 2-2 1481 1475 15.9% 17.4% 66.7% +2.2 14
1933-02-12 Real Union L 1-2 1475 1523 63.0% 17.5% 19.5% -14.1 11
1933-02-12 @ Sevilla W 2-1 1523 1475 19.5% 17.5% 63.0% +14.1 14
1933-02-12 Real Oviedo L 2-3 1519 1593 60.5% 17.6% 21.9% -12.9 12
1933-02-12 @ Sporting Gijon W 3-2 1593 1519 21.9% 17.6% 60.5% +12.9 18
1933-02-19 Sevilla W 2-1 1483 1461 68.9% 17.3% 13.8% +3.7 16
1933-02-19 @ Atletico Madrid L 1-2 1461 1483 13.8% 17.3% 68.9% -3.7 11
1933-02-19 Real Oviedo W 2-1 1414 1606 46.2% 17.7% 36.1% +8.6 14
1933-02-19 @ Celta Vigo L 1-2 1606 1414 36.1% 17.7% 46.2% -8.6 18
1933-02-19 Castellon W 1-0 1467 1370 73.5% 17.0% 9.5% +2.7 14
1933-02-19 @ Real Murcia L 0-1 1370 1467 9.5% 17.0% 73.5% -2.7 4
1933-02-19 Osasuna D 3-3 1537 1472 71.7% 17.2% 11.1% -2.2 15
1933-02-19 @ Real Union D 3-3 1472 1537 11.1% 17.2% 71.7% +2.2 11
1933-02-19 Deportivo La Coruna W 2-0 1507 1459 70.7% 17.2% 12.1% +6.5 14
1933-02-19 @ Sporting Gijon L 0-2 1459 1507 12.1% 17.2% 70.7% -6.5 13
1933-02-26 Castellon W 8-1 1486 1368 74.7% 16.9% 8.4% +12.1 18
1933-02-26 @ Atletico Madrid L 1-8 1368 1486 8.4% 16.9% 74.7% -12.1 4
1933-02-26 Real Union W 5-0 1452 1535 59.5% 17.6% 22.9% +27.1 15
1933-02-26 @ Deportivo La Coruna L 0-5 1535 1452 22.9% 17.6% 59.5% -27.1 15
1933-02-26 Sporting Gijon W 3-2 1475 1513 63.9% 17.5% 18.6% +4.6 13
1933-02-26 @ Osasuna L 2-3 1513 1475 18.6% 17.5% 63.9% -4.6 14
1933-02-26 Real Murcia W 3-0 1597 1469 75.2% 16.8% 8.0% +6.3 20
1933-02-26 @ Real Oviedo L 0-3 1469 1597 8.0% 16.8% 75.2% -6.3 14
1933-02-26 Celta Vigo D 1-1 1457 1423 69.7% 17.3% 13.0% -3.3 12
1933-02-26 @ Sevilla D 1-1 1423 1457 13.0% 17.3% 69.7% +3.3 15
1933-03-05 Deportivo La Coruna FL 1356 1479 55.0% 17.7% 27.4% +0.0 4
1933-03-05 @ Castellon FW 1479 1356 27.4% 17.7% 55.0% +0.0 17
1933-03-05 Atletico Madrid L 2-3 1426 1499 60.6% 17.6% 21.8% -12.9 15
1933-03-05 @ Celta Vigo W 3-2 1499 1426 21.8% 17.6% 60.6% +12.9 20
1933-03-05 Sevilla W 3-2 1463 1454 67.9% 17.4% 14.7% +3.7 16
1933-03-05 @ Real Murcia L 2-3 1454 1463 14.7% 17.4% 67.9% -3.7 12
1933-03-05 Osasuna W 7-1 1604 1479 75.0% 16.8% 8.2% +10.2 22
1933-03-05 @ Real Oviedo L 1-7 1479 1604 8.2% 16.8% 75.0% -10.2 13
1933-03-05 Sporting Gijon W 3-1 1508 1509 67.1% 17.4% 15.5% +7.1 17
1933-03-05 @ Real Union L 1-3 1509 1508 15.5% 17.4% 67.1% -7.1 14
1933-03-12 Real Murcia W 4-2 1511 1467 70.4% 17.2% 12.3% +5.1 22
1933-03-12 @ Atletico Madrid L 2-4 1467 1511 12.3% 17.2% 70.4% -5.1 16
1933-03-12 Osasuna W 5-0 1479 1469 68.0% 17.4% 14.7% +18.2 19
1933-03-12 @ Deportivo La Coruna L 0-5 1469 1479 14.7% 17.4% 68.0% -18.2 13
1933-03-12 Castellon W 6-0 1515 1356 76.6% 16.6% 6.8% +10.3 19
1933-03-12 @ Real Union L 0-6 1356 1515 6.8% 16.6% 76.6% -10.3 4
1933-03-12 Real Oviedo L 1-2 1450 1614 49.9% 17.7% 32.4% -11.3 12
1933-03-12 @ Sevilla W 2-1 1614 1450 32.4% 17.7% 49.9% +11.3 24
1933-03-12 Celta Vigo W 3-1 1501 1413 73.1% 17.0% 9.9% +4.6 16
1933-03-12 @ Sporting Gijon L 1-3 1413 1501 9.9% 17.0% 73.1% -4.6 15
1933-03-19 Sporting Gijon FL 1345 1506 50.3% 17.7% 32.0% +0.0 4
1933-03-19 @ Castellon FW 1506 1345 32.0% 17.7% 50.3% +0.0 18
1933-03-19 Deportivo La Coruna W 4-1 1409 1497 58.9% 17.6% 23.5% +14.5 17
1933-03-19 @ Celta Vigo L 1-4 1497 1409 23.5% 17.6% 58.9% -14.5 19
1933-03-19 Sevilla W 4-0 1451 1439 68.1% 17.4% 14.5% +14.6 15
1933-03-19 @ Osasuna L 0-4 1439 1451 14.5% 17.4% 68.1% -14.6 12
1933-03-19 Real Union W 2-1 1461 1525 61.5% 17.6% 20.9% +5.4 18
1933-03-19 @ Real Murcia L 1-2 1525 1461 20.9% 17.6% 61.5% -5.4 19
1933-03-19 Atletico Madrid W 5-1 1625 1517 74.2% 16.9% 8.9% +7.6 26
1933-03-19 @ Real Oviedo L 1-5 1517 1625 8.9% 16.9% 74.2% -7.6 22
1933-03-26 Osasuna FL 1345 1465 55.4% 17.7% 27.0% +0.0 4
1933-03-26 @ Castellon FW 1465 1345 27.0% 17.7% 55.4% +0.0 17
1933-03-26 Real Murcia L 1-2 1423 1467 63.4% 17.5% 19.0% -14.2 17
1933-03-26 @ Celta Vigo W 2-1 1467 1423 19.0% 17.5% 63.4% +14.2 20
1933-03-26 Real Oviedo D 2-2 1520 1633 56.2% 17.7% 26.1% -1.2 20
1933-03-26 @ Real Union D 2-2 1633 1520 26.1% 17.7% 56.2% +1.2 27
1933-03-26 Deportivo La Coruna D 1-1 1424 1483 62.0% 17.6% 20.4% -2.4 13
1933-03-26 @ Sevilla D 1-1 1483 1424 20.4% 17.6% 62.0% +2.4 20
1933-03-26 Atletico Madrid L 0-1 1506 1509 67.0% 17.4% 15.6% -15.9 18
1933-03-26 @ Sporting Gijon W 1-0 1509 1506 15.6% 17.4% 67.0% +15.9 24

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1933-01-22 8.92% Castellon 1387 2 @ Osasuna 1495 1
2 1933-01-22 9.84% Celta Vigo 1386 2 @ Real Murcia 1475 1
3 1932-12-11 15.28% Osasuna 1466 5 @ Atletico Madrid 1468 1
4 1932-12-18 15.61% Real Union 1517 2 @ Osasuna 1514 1
5 1933-03-26 15.63% Atletico Madrid 1509 1 @ Sporting Gijon 1506 0
6 1932-12-04 16.53% Sevilla 1472 3 @ Castellon 1457 1
7 1932-12-25 16.58% Real Oviedo 1539 3 @ Real Murcia 1524 1
8 1932-12-25 17.63% Atletico Madrid 1424 4 @ Castellon 1397 3
9 1933-03-26 19.04% Real Murcia 1467 2 @ Celta Vigo 1423 1
10 1933-02-12 19.46% Real Union 1523 2 @ Sevilla 1475 1
11 1933-03-05 21.79% Atletico Madrid 1499 3 @ Celta Vigo 1426 2
12 1933-02-12 21.90% Real Oviedo 1593 3 @ Sporting Gijon 1519 2
13 1932-12-18 22.63% Real Murcia 1501 3 @ Castellon 1420 1
14 1933-01-08 26.06% Sporting Gijon 1520 4 @ Celta Vigo 1408 3
15 1933-01-29 31.52% Real Oviedo 1561 2 @ Castellon 1404 0
16 1933-03-12 32.39% Real Oviedo 1614 2 @ Sevilla 1450 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1932-12-11 47.79 Osasuna 5 1466 15.28% @ Atletico Madrid 1 1468 67.31% 17.41%
2 1933-02-26 27.12 @ Deportivo La Coruna 5 1452 59.53% Real Union 0 1535 22.85% 17.62%
3 1932-12-04 25.65 Sevilla 3 1472 16.53% @ Castellon 1 1457 66.01% 17.46%
4 1932-12-25 25.63 Real Oviedo 3 1539 16.58% @ Real Murcia 1 1524 65.96% 17.46%
5 1933-01-15 23.28 @ Real Union 9 1509 67.97% Real Murcia 1 1499 14.65% 17.38%
6 1932-12-18 23.20 Real Murcia 3 1501 22.63% @ Castellon 1 1420 59.75% 17.62%
7 1933-01-29 22.97 Real Oviedo 2 1561 31.52% @ Castellon 0 1404 50.81% 17.68%
8 1933-01-08 22.31 @ Castellon 3 1373 50.69% Real Union 0 1531 31.64% 17.68%
9 1933-01-08 21.09 @ Osasuna 8 1482 67.51% Deportivo La Coruna 1 1477 15.09% 17.40%
10 1933-01-15 20.74 @ Atletico Madrid 3 1437 53.31% Real Oviedo 0 1574 29.02% 17.67%
11 1933-02-05 19.19 @ Real Murcia 5 1444 58.30% Sporting Gijon 1 1539 24.06% 17.64%
12 1933-03-12 18.16 @ Deportivo La Coruna 5 1479 67.96% Osasuna 0 1469 14.66% 17.38%
13 1932-12-04 17.89 @ Real Union 7 1495 67.87% Atletico Madrid 1 1486 14.75% 17.38%
14 1933-02-05 17.74 @ Celta Vigo 3 1396 58.12% Osasuna 0 1492 24.24% 17.64%
15 1933-01-22 16.72 Castellon 2 1387 8.92% @ Osasuna 1 1495 74.15% 16.92%
16 1933-01-22 16.48 Celta Vigo 2 1386 9.84% @ Real Murcia 1 1475 73.13% 17.03%
17 1932-11-27 16.35 @ Real Oviedo 8 1532 71.33% Castellon 1 1474 11.49% 17.18%
18 1932-12-25 16.15 @ Sporting Gijon 8 1489 66.36% Osasuna 2 1499 16.20% 17.45%
19 1933-03-26 15.94 Atletico Madrid 1 1509 15.63% @ Sporting Gijon 0 1506 66.95% 17.42%
20 1933-01-01 15.44 @ Sporting Gijon 5 1505 63.63% Real Union 1 1546 18.84% 17.54%
21 1932-12-18 15.03 Real Union 2 1517 15.61% @ Osasuna 1 1514 66.97% 17.42%
22 1932-12-25 14.76 @ Real Union 7 1532 70.79% Deportivo La Coruna 1 1482 12.00% 17.22%
23 1933-03-19 14.59 @ Osasuna 4 1451 68.12% Sevilla 0 1439 14.51% 17.37%
24 1933-03-19 14.55 @ Celta Vigo 4 1409 58.90% Deportivo La Coruna 1 1497 23.47% 17.63%
25 1932-12-25 14.52 @ Celta Vigo 4 1401 58.95% Sevilla 1 1489 23.42% 17.63%