1932-33 Segunda División Season

90 games

Final

Promoted

Real Ovido

27 pts

Relegated

Castellon

4 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Atletico Madrid

6.34 points above expected

24 points · 17.66 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Castellon

6.07 points below expected

4 points · 10.07 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Real Oviedo	18	12	3	3	27	58	26	+32	21.05	+5.95
2	Atletico Madrid	18	10	4	4	24	40	35	+5	17.66	+6.34
3	Real Murcia	18	9	2	7	20	33	41	-8	18.06	+1.94
4	Real Union	18	9	2	7	20	51	36	+15	19.37	+0.63
5	Deportivo La Coruna	18	8	4	6	20	38	38	0	19.32	+0.68
6	Sporting Gijon	18	8	2	8	18	49	40	+9	20.36	-2.36
7	Celta Vigo	18	8	1	9	17	36	38	-2	17.01	-0.01
8	Osasuna	18	7	3	8	17	45	47	-2	19.53	-2.53
9	Sevilla	18	5	3	10	13	29	38	-9	17.57	-4.57
10	Castellon Relegated	18	2	0	16	4	14	54	-40	10.07	-6.07

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Atletico Madrid	24	17.66	+6.34
2	Real Oviedo	27	21.05	+5.95
3	Real Murcia	20	18.06	+1.94
4	Deportivo La Coruna	20	19.32	+0.68
5	Real Union	20	19.37	+0.63

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Castellon	4	10.07	-6.07
2	Sevilla	13	17.57	-4.57
3	Osasuna	17	19.53	-2.53
4	Sporting Gijon	18	20.36	-2.36
5	Celta Vigo	17	17.01	-0.01

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Real Oviedo	4	Jan 22 – Feb 12	1 in 28
2	Celta Vigo	3	Feb 5 – Feb 19	1 in 20
3	Real Union	4	Dec 4 – Dec 25	1 in 20
4	Atletico Madrid	4	Feb 19 – Mar 12	1 in 13
5	Sporting Gijon	4	Dec 25 – Jan 15	1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Castellon	9	Jan 29 – Mar 26	1 in 2,303
2	Real Murcia	3	Jan 15 – Jan 29	1 in 22
3	Osasuna	2	Dec 18 – Dec 25	1 in 10
4	Atletico Madrid	2	Dec 4 – Dec 11	1 in 10
5	Sporting Gijon	2	Feb 5 – Feb 12	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Atletico Madrid	9	Jan 15 – Mar 12	1 in 78
2	Celta Vigo	4	Feb 5 – Feb 26	1 in 19
3	Real Murcia	4	Nov 27 – Dec 18	1 in 10
4	Real Oviedo	5	Dec 11 – Jan 8	1 in 10
5	Osasuna	3	Feb 12 – Feb 26	1 in 5

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Castellon	9	Jan 29 – Mar 26	1 in 80
2	Sevilla	7	Feb 12 – Mar 26	1 in 75
3	Atletico Madrid	4	Nov 27 – Dec 18	1 in 13
4	Deportivo La Coruna	4	Jan 29 – Feb 19	1 in 12
5	Osasuna	3	Dec 18 – Jan 1	1 in 9

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Real Oviedo	1634	27	+37	9	6.5	+2.5
Atletico Madrid	1525	24	+38	8	4.7	+3.3
Real Murcia	1481	20	+12	6	4.2	+1.8
Real Union	1519	20	-16	5	5.7	-0.7
Deportivo La Coruna	1485	18	+27	5	4.5	+0.5
Sporting Gijon	1490	16	-16	4	5.8	-1.8
Osasuna	1465	15	-7	5	4.2	+0.8
Celta Vigo	1409	15	-14	3	5.0	-2.0
Sevilla	1422	13	-35	2	5.1	-3.1
Castellon	1345	4	-59	0	2.6	-2.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AM	CAS	CV	DLC	OSA	RM	RO	RU	SEV	SG
Atletico Madrid	—	2-0-0 3.11	2-0-0 3.07	0-2-0 2.86	0-1-1 2.84	1-0-1 2.83	1-0-1 2.21	1-0-1 2.65	1-1-0 2.73	2-0-0 2.61
Castellon	0-0-2 2.54	—	0-0-2 2.82	0-0-2 2.30	1-0-1 2.27	0-0-2 2.42	0-0-2 2.22	1-0-1 2.07	0-0-2 2.63	0-0-2 2.08
Celta Vigo	0-0-2 2.58	2-0-0 2.83	—	1-0-1 2.46	1-0-1 2.42	1-0-1 2.54	1-0-1 1.96	1-0-1 2.26	1-1-0 2.51	0-0-2 2.33
Deportivo La Coruna	0-2-0 2.79	2-0-0 3.35	1-0-1 3.19	—	1-0-1 2.84	0-1-1 2.79	1-0-1 2.41	1-0-1 2.49	1-1-0 2.94	1-0-1 2.69
Osasuna	1-1-0 2.81	1-0-1 3.38	1-0-1 3.23	1-0-1 2.81	—	1-0-1 2.81	0-1-1 2.38	0-1-1 2.69	1-0-1 2.92	1-0-1 2.75
Real Murcia	1-0-1 2.83	2-0-0 3.23	1-0-1 3.11	1-1-0 2.86	1-0-1 2.84	—	0-0-2 2.56	1-0-1 2.63	1-0-1 2.90	1-1-0 2.57
Real Oviedo	1-0-1 3.44	2-0-0 3.43	1-0-1 3.69	1-0-1 3.25	1-1-0 3.28	2-0-0 3.10	—	1-1-0 3.20	2-0-0 3.50	1-1-0 3.13
Real Union	1-0-1 3.00	1-0-1 3.59	1-0-1 3.40	1-0-1 3.16	1-1-0 2.97	1-0-1 3.02	0-1-1 2.45	—	2-0-0 2.98	1-0-1 2.93
Sevilla	0-1-1 2.93	2-0-0 3.03	0-1-1 3.14	0-1-1 2.71	1-0-1 2.73	1-0-1 2.75	0-0-2 2.15	0-0-2 2.67	—	1-0-1 2.61
Sporting Gijon	0-0-2 3.04	2-0-0 3.57	2-0-0 3.32	1-0-1 2.96	1-0-1 2.90	0-1-1 3.08	0-1-1 2.53	1-0-1 2.72	1-0-1 3.05	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.69	+4.1
Allowed	0.74	-7.3
Differential	0.81	+3.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.22%	2.22%	2.78%	2.78%	1.67%	1.67%	13.33%
1	2.22%	4.44%	6.11%	5.00%	2.22%	8.89%	28.89%
2	2.78%	6.11%	3.33%	2.22%	2.22%	1.67%	18.33%
3	2.78%	5.00%	2.22%	3.33%	1.67%	—	15.00%
4	1.67%	2.22%	2.22%	1.67%	—	—	7.78%
5+	1.67%	8.89%	1.67%	—	—	4.44%	16.67%
Total	13.33%	28.89%	18.33%	15.00%	7.78%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.14	2.14	+0.00
SD	2.03	2.03	3.12
CV	0.95	0.95	—
Max	9	9	+8
Min	-1	-1	-8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%	33.33%
2	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	33.33%	16.67%	22.22%	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.22	1.94	+0.28
SD	1.93	2.10	3.01
CV	0.87	1.08	—
Max	8	7	+7
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	27.78%
1	—	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	33.33%
2	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	22.22%	22.22%
Total	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	22.22%	44.44%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.56	2.78	-2.22
SD	1.25	3.00	2.82
CV	2.24	1.08	—
Max	3	8	+3
Min	-1	-1	-7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
2	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
4	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
Total	5.56%	33.33%	22.22%	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.94	2.06	-0.11
SD	1.51	1.80	2.32
CV	0.78	0.87	—
Max	4	7	+3
Min	-1	-1	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	—	16.67%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%	38.89%
2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
3	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
Total	22.22%	33.33%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.06	2.06	+0.00
SD	2.18	2.58	3.63
CV	1.06	1.25	—
Max	7	8	+5
Min	-1	-1	-7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%
1	—	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	5.56%	27.78%
2	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
3	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	16.67%	—	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
Total	5.56%	16.67%	33.33%	22.22%	—	22.22%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.44	2.56	-0.11
SD	2.31	2.23	3.63
CV	0.94	0.87	—
Max	8	8	+7
Min	-1	-1	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
1	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	11.11%	44.44%
2	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	38.89%	16.67%	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.83	2.28	-0.44
SD	1.25	2.24	2.89
CV	0.68	0.99	—
Max	5	9	+4
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
1	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
2	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	27.78%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	27.78%	—	—	—	—	27.78%
Total	16.67%	44.44%	16.67%	22.22%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.22	1.44	+1.78
SD	2.16	1.04	2.69
CV	0.67	0.72	—
Max	8	3	+7
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%
1	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
2	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
Total	16.67%	33.33%	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.83	2.00	+0.83
SD	2.66	1.64	3.75
CV	0.94	0.82	—
Max	9	5	+8
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
1	—	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	50.00%
2	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
3	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	33.33%	22.22%	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.61	2.11	-0.50
SD	1.42	1.57	2.41
CV	0.88	0.74	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
1	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	27.78%
Total	5.56%	27.78%	16.67%	27.78%	5.56%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.67	2.17	+0.50
SD	2.28	1.62	2.81
CV	0.85	0.75	—
Max	8	5	+6
Min	-1	-1	-4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Real Oviedo	1634	27	21.05	+5.95	98.1%	9	16	19	21	23	26	32
Atletico Madrid	1525	24	17.66	+6.34	98.7%	5	13	16	18	20	23	30
Real Union	1519	20	19.37	+0.63	63.4%	6	14	17	19	22	25	30
Sporting Gijon	1490	18	20.36	-2.36	27.8%	9	15	18	20	22	26	32
Deportivo La Coruna	1485	20	19.32	+0.68	64.6%	8	14	17	19	21	24	30
Real Murcia	1481	20	18.06	+1.94	78.1%	6	13	16	18	20	23	30
Osasuna	1465	17	19.53	-2.53	25.4%	9	14	17	20	22	24	32
Sevilla	1422	13	17.57	-4.57	10.2%	5	12	15	18	20	23	29
Celta Vigo	1409	17	17.01	-0.01	56.1%	5	12	15	17	19	22	29
Castellon	1345	4	10.07	-6.07	1.6%	0	6	8	10	12	15	20

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+42.22%

Strong Edge

64.44%13.33%22.22%

Elo Value

Home Edge

92 Elo

0.011 goals per Elo point

0175.73250

Scoring Tilt

Expected +1.91 goals

+1.86 goals

Strong Home

-2+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

5.7

Open

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

31%

Real Oviedo, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.17/gm

Tight Race

00.100.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.5 * Some Luck: 2.5 to 3.74 * Lucky: 3.74 to 4.99 * Wild Swing: 4.99 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.65 * Close: 1.65 to 2.48 * Off: 2.48 to 3.3 * Way Off: 3.3 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.5 * A Surprise: 0.5 to 0.8 * Several Surprises: 0.8 to 1.1 * Many Surprises: 1.1 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.87 points

Lucky

03.128

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.00

02.065

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

98.65%

Atletico Madrid

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

1.61%

Castellon

050

Season Outliers

Expected

3 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

0 of 1

As Expected

00.11

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.17

Even

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.47

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

61%

Slight Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

84%

Strong Edge

50%81%100%

Close Games

Expected

42%

Frequent

0%35%100%

Blowouts

Expected

38%

Very Frequent

0%44%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.50

Highly Predictable

00.502

Matchup Imbalance

0.59

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.62

Chaotic

01.002

Repeatability

0.67

Strong Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

22%

Chalky

0%17%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

22%

As Expected

0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.

Probability calibration

0.19

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.63

Very Underconfident

0.1787521.001.82125

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.089

Well Within Noise

00.1200.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Real Oviedo	30.53%	18.78%	14.31%	10.49%	8.39%	6.57%	4.94%	3.72%	1.99%	0.28%
Atletico Madrid	4.58%	7.31%	8.29%	10.53%	11.86%	13.17%	13.89%	14.42%	13.57%	2.38%
Real Murcia	4.90%	6.83%	8.83%	10.20%	12.06%	12.68%	13.92%	14.50%	14.21%	1.87%
Real Union	13.30%	14.02%	13.22%	12.78%	11.91%	10.16%	9.34%	8.83%	5.47%	0.97%
Deportivo La Coruna	9.84%	12.54%	12.98%	13.21%	12.17%	11.64%	10.70%	9.34%	6.89%	0.69%
Sporting Gijon	19.04%	17.25%	15.15%	12.58%	10.83%	8.98%	7.10%	5.41%	3.34%	0.32%
Celta Vigo	2.93%	4.38%	6.75%	8.11%	10.26%	12.49%	14.34%	16.92%	20.50%	3.32%
Osasuna	10.91%	13.06%	13.14%	13.50%	12.17%	11.64%	10.51%	8.36%	6.14%	0.57%
Sevilla	3.97%	5.83%	7.30%	8.57%	10.24%	12.36%	14.51%	16.26%	18.22%	2.74%
Castellon	—	—	0.03%	0.03%	0.11%	0.31%	0.75%	2.24%	9.67%	86.86%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Direct promotion	Same level	Direct relegation
Real Oviedo	30.53%	69.19%	0.28%
Sporting Gijon	19.04%	80.64%	0.32%
Real Union	13.30%	85.73%	0.97%
Osasuna	10.91%	88.52%	0.57%
Deportivo La Coruna	9.84%	89.47%	0.69%
Real Murcia	4.90%	93.23%	1.87%
Atletico Madrid	4.58%	93.04%	2.38%
Sevilla	3.97%	93.29%	2.74%
Celta Vigo	2.93%	93.75%	3.32%
Castellon	—	13.14%	86.86%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1932-11-27	Deportivo La Coruna	D 0-0	58.9	1489	1468	68.79%	17.34%	13.87%	+2.14	-3.6	1
1932-11-27	@ Atletico Madrid	D 0-0	58.9	1468	1489	13.87%	17.34%	68.79%	-2.14	+3.6	1
1932-11-27	Real Union	W 4-2	49.3	1385	1505	55.42%	17.66%	26.92%	+0.61	+10.4	2
1932-11-27	@ Celta Vigo	L 2-4	49.3	1505	1385	26.92%	17.66%	55.42%	-0.61	-10.4	0
1932-11-27	Osasuna	W 2-1	44.6	1491	1465	69.11%	17.32%	13.58%	+2.19	+3.6	2
1932-11-27	@ Real Murcia	L 1-2	44.6	1465	1491	13.58%	17.32%	69.11%	-2.19	-3.6	0
1932-11-27	Castellon	W 8-1	39.2	1532	1474	71.33%	17.18%	11.49%	+2.55	+16.4	2
1932-11-27	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-8	39.2	1474	1532	11.49%	17.18%	71.33%	-2.55	-16.3	0
1932-11-27	Sporting Gijon	W 5-2	47.6	1461	1503	63.58%	17.54%	18.88%	+1.46	+10.4	2
1932-11-27	@ Sevilla	L 2-5	47.6	1503	1461	18.88%	17.54%	63.58%	-1.46	-10.4	0
1932-12-04	Sevilla	L 1-3	58.0	1457	1472	66.01%	17.46%	16.53%	+1.76	-25.7	0
1932-12-04	@ Castellon	W 3-1	58.0	1472	1457	16.53%	17.46%	66.01%	-1.76	+25.7	4
1932-12-04	Real Oviedo	W 3-1	48.3	1472	1549	60.17%	17.61%	22.22%	+1.08	+9.8	3
1932-12-04	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 1-3	48.3	1549	1472	22.22%	17.61%	60.17%	-1.08	-9.8	2
1932-12-04	Celta Vigo	W 4-2	43.4	1462	1396	71.79%	17.14%	11.07%	+2.63	+4.6	2
1932-12-04	@ Osasuna	L 2-4	43.4	1396	1462	11.07%	17.14%	71.79%	-2.63	-4.6	2
1932-12-04	Atletico Madrid	W 7-1	39.7	1495	1486	67.87%	17.38%	14.75%	+2.01	+17.9	2
1932-12-04	@ Real Union	L 1-7	39.7	1486	1495	14.75%	17.38%	67.87%	-2.01	-17.9	1
1932-12-04	Real Murcia	D 2-2	66.3	1493	1494	67.06%	17.42%	15.52%	+1.90	-2.2	1
1932-12-04	@ Sporting Gijon	D 2-2	66.3	1494	1493	15.52%	17.42%	67.06%	-1.90	+2.2	3
1932-12-11	Osasuna	L 1-5	55.6	1468	1466	67.31%	17.41%	15.28%	+1.93	-47.8	1
1932-12-11	@ Atletico Madrid	W 5-1	55.6	1466	1468	15.28%	17.41%	67.31%	-1.93	+47.8	4
1932-12-11	Castellon	W 4-1	39.1	1391	1432	63.70%	17.53%	18.76%	+1.47	+11.9	4
1932-12-11	@ Celta Vigo	L 1-4	39.1	1432	1391	18.76%	17.53%	63.70%	-1.47	-11.9	0
1932-12-11	Deportivo La Coruna	W 1-0	42.4	1497	1482	68.33%	17.36%	14.31%	+2.08	+4.0	5
1932-12-11	@ Real Murcia	L 0-1	42.4	1482	1497	14.31%	17.36%	68.33%	-2.08	-4.0	3
1932-12-11	Sporting Gijon	D 3-3	72.3	1539	1491	70.66%	17.22%	12.12%	+2.44	-2.1	3
1932-12-11	@ Real Oviedo	D 3-3	72.3	1491	1539	12.12%	17.22%	70.66%	-2.44	+2.1	2
1932-12-11	Sevilla	W 1-0	43.6	1513	1497	68.35%	17.36%	14.29%	+2.08	+4.0	4
1932-12-11	@ Real Union	L 0-1	43.6	1497	1513	14.29%	17.36%	68.35%	-2.08	-4.0	4
1932-12-18	Real Murcia	L 1-3	55.9	1420	1501	59.75%	17.62%	22.63%	+1.03	-23.2	0
1932-12-18	@ Castellon	W 3-1	55.9	1501	1420	22.63%	17.62%	59.75%	-1.03	+23.2	7
1932-12-18	Sporting Gijon	W 4-3	54.3	1478	1493	65.93%	17.46%	16.60%	+1.75	+4.0	5
1932-12-18	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 3-4	54.3	1493	1478	16.60%	17.46%	65.93%	-1.75	-4.0	2
1932-12-18	Real Union	L 1-2	63.5	1514	1517	66.97%	17.42%	15.61%	+1.88	-15.0	4
1932-12-18	@ Osasuna	W 2-1	63.5	1517	1514	15.61%	17.42%	66.97%	-1.88	+15.0	6
1932-12-18	Celta Vigo	W 2-1	42.1	1537	1403	75.44%	16.77%	7.79%	+3.37	+2.1	5
1932-12-18	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-2	42.1	1403	1537	7.79%	16.77%	75.44%	-3.37	-2.1	4
1932-12-18	Atletico Madrid	D 0-0	57.4	1493	1420	72.23%	17.11%	10.66%	+2.71	-4.1	5
1932-12-18	@ Sevilla	D 0-0	57.4	1420	1493	10.66%	17.11%	72.23%	-2.71	+4.1	2
1932-12-25	Atletico Madrid	L 3-4	64.1	1397	1424	64.87%	17.50%	17.63%	+1.61	-13.5	0
1932-12-25	@ Castellon	W 4-3	64.1	1424	1397	17.63%	17.50%	64.87%	-1.61	+13.5	4
1932-12-25	Sevilla	W 4-1	42.4	1401	1489	58.95%	17.63%	23.42%	+0.95	+14.5	6
1932-12-25	@ Celta Vigo	L 1-4	42.4	1489	1401	23.42%	17.63%	58.95%	-0.95	-14.5	5
1932-12-25	Real Oviedo	L 1-3	62.9	1524	1539	65.96%	17.46%	16.58%	+1.75	-25.6	7
1932-12-25	@ Real Murcia	W 3-1	62.9	1539	1524	16.58%	17.46%	65.96%	-1.75	+25.6	7
1932-12-25	Deportivo La Coruna	W 7-1	40.0	1532	1482	70.79%	17.22%	12.00%	+2.46	+14.8	8
1932-12-25	@ Real Union	L 1-7	40.0	1482	1532	12.00%	17.22%	70.79%	-2.46	-14.8	5
1932-12-25	Osasuna	W 8-2	42.3	1489	1499	66.36%	17.45%	16.20%	+1.80	+16.1	4
1932-12-25	@ Sporting Gijon	L 2-8	42.3	1499	1489	16.20%	17.45%	66.36%	-1.80	-16.1	4
1933-01-01	Celta Vigo	W 2-0	36.0	1438	1415	68.87%	17.33%	13.79%	+2.16	+7.3	6
1933-01-01	@ Atletico Madrid	L 0-2	36.0	1415	1438	13.79%	17.33%	68.87%	-2.16	-7.3	6
1933-01-01	Castellon	W 4-0	31.3	1467	1383	72.85%	17.05%	10.10%	+2.83	+10.4	7
1933-01-01	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 0-4	31.3	1383	1467	10.10%	17.05%	72.85%	-2.83	-10.4	0
1933-01-01	Real Oviedo	D 3-3	72.8	1483	1564	59.67%	17.62%	22.71%	+1.03	-1.3	5
1933-01-01	@ Osasuna	D 3-3	72.8	1564	1483	22.71%	17.62%	59.67%	-1.03	+1.3	8
1933-01-01	Real Murcia	W 3-1	45.0	1475	1498	65.23%	17.49%	17.28%	+1.66	+7.8	7
1933-01-01	@ Sevilla	L 1-3	45.0	1498	1475	17.28%	17.49%	65.23%	-1.66	-7.8	7
1933-01-01	Real Union	W 5-1	45.4	1505	1546	63.63%	17.54%	18.84%	+1.46	+15.4	6
1933-01-01	@ Sporting Gijon	L 1-5	45.4	1546	1505	18.84%	17.54%	63.63%	-1.46	-15.4	8
1933-01-08	Real Union	W 3-0	41.0	1373	1531	50.69%	17.68%	31.64%	+0.19	+22.3	2
1933-01-08	@ Castellon	L 0-3	41.0	1531	1373	31.64%	17.68%	50.69%	-0.19	-22.3	8
1933-01-08	Sporting Gijon	L 3-4	64.8	1408	1520	56.28%	17.66%	26.06%	+0.69	-11.7	6
1933-01-08	@ Celta Vigo	W 4-3	64.8	1520	1408	26.06%	17.66%	56.28%	-0.69	+11.7	8
1933-01-08	Deportivo La Coruna	W 8-1	38.5	1482	1477	67.51%	17.40%	15.09%	+1.96	+21.1	7
1933-01-08	@ Osasuna	L 1-8	38.5	1477	1482	15.09%	17.40%	67.51%	-1.96	-21.1	7
1933-01-08	Atletico Madrid	W 4-1	40.5	1490	1445	70.48%	17.24%	12.29%	+2.41	+8.1	9
1933-01-08	@ Real Murcia	L 1-4	40.5	1445	1490	12.29%	17.24%	70.48%	-2.41	-8.1	6
1933-01-08	Sevilla	W 5-1	42.5	1566	1483	72.81%	17.06%	10.13%	+2.82	+8.7	10
1933-01-08	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-5	42.5	1483	1566	10.13%	17.06%	72.81%	-2.82	-8.7	7
1933-01-15	Real Oviedo	W 3-0	44.1	1437	1574	53.31%	17.67%	29.02%	+0.42	+20.7	8
1933-01-15	@ Atletico Madrid	L 0-3	44.1	1574	1437	29.02%	17.67%	53.31%	-0.42	-20.7	10
1933-01-15	Celta Vigo	W 7-2	37.7	1456	1396	71.41%	17.17%	11.42%	+2.56	+10.0	9
1933-01-15	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 2-7	37.7	1396	1456	11.42%	17.17%	71.41%	-2.56	-10.0	6
1933-01-15	Real Murcia	W 9-1	40.0	1509	1499	67.97%	17.38%	14.65%	+2.02	+23.3	10
1933-01-15	@ Real Union	L 1-9	40.0	1499	1509	14.65%	17.38%	67.97%	-2.02	-23.3	9
1933-01-15	Osasuna	W 3-1	45.2	1474	1503	64.77%	17.50%	17.72%	+1.60	+8.0	9
1933-01-15	@ Sevilla	L 1-3	45.2	1503	1474	17.72%	17.50%	64.77%	-1.60	-8.0	7
1933-01-15	Castellon	W 6-1	36.2	1532	1395	75.59%	16.75%	7.66%	+3.41	+8.1	10
1933-01-15	@ Sporting Gijon	L 1-6	36.2	1395	1532	7.66%	16.75%	75.59%	-3.41	-8.1	2
1933-01-22	Sporting Gijon	W 2-0	43.7	1458	1540	59.58%	17.62%	22.80%	+1.02	+11.6	10
1933-01-22	@ Atletico Madrid	L 0-2	43.7	1540	1458	22.80%	17.62%	59.58%	-1.02	-11.6	10
1933-01-22	Sevilla	W 3-1	43.8	1466	1482	65.89%	17.47%	16.65%	+1.74	+7.6	11
1933-01-22	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 1-3	43.8	1482	1466	16.65%	17.47%	65.89%	-1.74	-7.6	9
1933-01-22	Castellon	L 1-2	60.1	1495	1387	74.15%	16.92%	8.92%	+3.09	-16.7	7
1933-01-22	@ Osasuna	W 2-1	60.1	1387	1495	8.92%	16.92%	74.15%	-3.09	+16.7	4
1933-01-22	Celta Vigo	L 1-2	59.3	1475	1386	73.13%	17.03%	9.84%	+2.88	-16.5	9
1933-01-22	@ Real Murcia	W 2-1	59.3	1386	1475	9.84%	17.03%	73.13%	-2.88	+16.5	8
1933-01-22	Real Union	W 2-0	44.1	1554	1532	68.83%	17.33%	13.84%	+2.15	+7.4	12
1933-01-22	@ Real Oviedo	L 0-2	44.1	1532	1554	13.84%	17.33%	68.83%	-2.15	-7.4	10
1933-01-29	Real Oviedo	L 0-2	50.9	1404	1561	50.81%	17.68%	31.52%	+0.20	-23.0	4
1933-01-29	@ Castellon	W 2-0	50.9	1561	1404	31.52%	17.68%	50.81%	-0.20	+23.0	14
1933-01-29	Atletico Madrid	D 1-1	60.8	1474	1469	67.52%	17.40%	15.08%	+1.96	-3.1	12
1933-01-29	@ Deportivo La Coruna	D 1-1	60.8	1469	1474	15.08%	17.40%	67.52%	-1.96	+3.1	11
1933-01-29	Real Murcia	W 6-1	38.6	1478	1459	68.65%	17.34%	14.01%	+2.12	+14.4	9
1933-01-29	@ Osasuna	L 1-6	38.6	1459	1478	14.01%	17.34%	68.65%	-2.12	-14.4	9
1933-01-29	Celta Vigo	W 3-0	34.6	1525	1403	74.86%	16.84%	8.29%	+3.24	+6.6	12
1933-01-29	@ Real Union	L 0-3	34.6	1403	1525	8.29%	16.84%	74.86%	-3.24	-6.6	8
1933-01-29	Sevilla	W 5-1	41.4	1529	1474	71.06%	17.20%	11.74%	+2.50	+10.0	12
1933-01-29	@ Sporting Gijon	L 1-5	41.4	1474	1529	11.74%	17.20%	71.06%	-2.50	-10.0	9
1933-02-05	Real Union	W 4-2	51.4	1472	1531	61.98%	17.58%	20.44%	+1.27	+8.1	13
1933-02-05	@ Atletico Madrid	L 2-4	51.4	1531	1472	20.44%	17.58%	61.98%	-1.27	-8.1	12
1933-02-05	Osasuna	W 3-0	38.3	1396	1492	58.12%	17.64%	24.24%	+0.87	+17.7	10
1933-02-05	@ Celta Vigo	L 0-3	38.3	1492	1396	24.24%	17.64%	58.12%	-0.87	-17.7	9
1933-02-05	Sporting Gijon	W 5-1	44.5	1444	1539	58.30%	17.64%	24.06%	+0.89	+19.2	11
1933-02-05	@ Real Murcia	L 1-5	44.5	1539	1444	24.06%	17.64%	58.30%	-0.89	-19.2	12
1933-02-05	Deportivo La Coruna	W 6-1	41.2	1584	1471	74.45%	16.89%	8.66%	+3.15	+9.1	16
1933-02-05	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-6	41.2	1471	1584	8.66%	16.89%	74.45%	-3.15	-9.1	12
1933-02-05	Castellon	W 4-0	31.2	1464	1381	72.84%	17.05%	10.11%	+2.82	+10.4	11
1933-02-05	@ Sevilla	L 0-4	31.2	1381	1464	10.11%	17.05%	72.84%	-2.82	-10.4	4
1933-02-12	Celta Vigo	FL	52.4	1370	1414	63.42%	17.54%	19.04%	+1.44	+0.0	4
1933-02-12	@ Castellon	FW	52.4	1414	1370	19.04%	17.54%	63.42%	-1.44	+0.0	12
1933-02-12	Real Murcia	D 1-1	60.2	1462	1464	67.02%	17.42%	15.56%	+1.89	-3.0	13
1933-02-12	@ Deportivo La Coruna	D 1-1	60.2	1464	1462	15.56%	17.42%	67.02%	-1.89	+3.0	12
1933-02-12	Atletico Madrid	D 2-2	65.1	1475	1481	66.70%	17.43%	15.86%	+1.85	-2.2	10
1933-02-12	@ Osasuna	D 2-2	65.1	1481	1475	15.86%	17.43%	66.70%	-1.85	+2.2	14
1933-02-12	Real Union	L 1-2	61.1	1475	1523	62.99%	17.55%	19.46%	+1.39	-14.1	11
1933-02-12	@ Sevilla	W 2-1	61.1	1523	1475	19.46%	17.55%	62.99%	-1.39	+14.1	14
1933-02-12	Real Oviedo	L 2-3	68.7	1519	1593	60.49%	17.61%	21.90%	+1.11	-12.9	12
1933-02-12	@ Sporting Gijon	W 3-2	68.7	1593	1519	21.90%	17.61%	60.49%	-1.11	+12.9	18
1933-02-19	Sevilla	W 2-1	44.2	1483	1461	68.86%	17.33%	13.81%	+2.15	+3.7	16
1933-02-19	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-2	44.2	1461	1483	13.81%	17.33%	68.86%	-2.15	-3.7	11
1933-02-19	Real Oviedo	W 2-1	53.9	1414	1606	46.21%	17.66%	36.13%	-0.18	+8.6	14
1933-02-19	@ Celta Vigo	L 1-2	53.9	1606	1414	36.13%	17.66%	46.21%	+0.18	-8.6	18
1933-02-19	Castellon	W 1-0	36.2	1467	1370	73.54%	16.99%	9.47%	+2.96	+2.7	14
1933-02-19	@ Real Murcia	L 0-1	36.2	1370	1467	9.47%	16.99%	73.54%	-2.96	-2.7	4
1933-02-19	Osasuna	D 3-3	71.6	1537	1472	71.72%	17.15%	11.13%	+2.62	-2.2	15
1933-02-19	@ Real Union	D 3-3	71.6	1472	1537	11.13%	17.15%	71.72%	-2.62	+2.2	11
1933-02-19	Deportivo La Coruna	W 2-0	39.2	1507	1459	70.66%	17.22%	12.12%	+2.44	+6.5	14
1933-02-19	@ Sporting Gijon	L 0-2	39.2	1459	1507	12.12%	17.22%	70.66%	-2.44	-6.5	13
1933-02-26	Castellon	W 8-1	32.9	1486	1368	74.72%	16.86%	8.42%	+3.21	+12.1	18
1933-02-26	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-8	32.9	1368	1486	8.42%	16.86%	74.72%	-3.21	-12.1	4
1933-02-26	Real Union	W 5-0	39.2	1452	1535	59.53%	17.62%	22.85%	+1.01	+27.1	15
1933-02-26	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 0-5	39.2	1535	1452	22.85%	17.62%	59.53%	-1.01	-27.1	15
1933-02-26	Sporting Gijon	W 3-2	51.6	1475	1513	63.91%	17.53%	18.57%	+1.49	+4.6	13
1933-02-26	@ Osasuna	L 2-3	51.6	1513	1475	18.57%	17.53%	63.91%	-1.49	-4.6	14
1933-02-26	Real Murcia	W 3-0	39.6	1597	1469	75.18%	16.81%	8.02%	+3.31	+6.3	20
1933-02-26	@ Real Oviedo	L 0-3	39.6	1469	1597	8.02%	16.81%	75.18%	-3.31	-6.3	14
1933-02-26	Celta Vigo	D 1-1	58.7	1457	1423	69.73%	17.28%	12.99%	+2.29	-3.3	12
1933-02-26	@ Sevilla	D 1-1	58.7	1423	1457	12.99%	17.28%	69.73%	-2.29	+3.3	15
1933-03-05	Deportivo La Coruna	FL	53.5	1356	1479	54.97%	17.67%	27.36%	+0.57	+0.0	4
1933-03-05	@ Castellon	FW	53.5	1479	1356	27.36%	17.67%	54.97%	-0.57	+0.0	17
1933-03-05	Atletico Madrid	L 2-3	62.0	1426	1499	60.61%	17.60%	21.79%	+1.12	-12.9	15
1933-03-05	@ Celta Vigo	W 3-2	62.0	1499	1426	21.79%	17.60%	60.61%	-1.12	+12.9	20
1933-03-05	Sevilla	W 3-2	47.9	1463	1454	67.90%	17.38%	14.72%	+2.01	+3.7	16
1933-03-05	@ Real Murcia	L 2-3	47.9	1454	1463	14.72%	17.38%	67.90%	-2.01	-3.7	12
1933-03-05	Osasuna	W 7-1	41.3	1604	1479	75.00%	16.83%	8.17%	+3.27	+10.2	22
1933-03-05	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-7	41.3	1479	1604	8.17%	16.83%	75.00%	-3.27	-10.2	13
1933-03-05	Sporting Gijon	W 3-1	46.0	1508	1509	67.12%	17.42%	15.46%	+1.91	+7.1	17
1933-03-05	@ Real Union	L 1-3	46.0	1509	1508	15.46%	17.42%	67.12%	-1.91	-7.1	14
1933-03-12	Real Murcia	W 4-2	47.9	1511	1467	70.44%	17.24%	12.32%	+2.40	+5.1	22
1933-03-12	@ Atletico Madrid	L 2-4	47.9	1467	1511	12.32%	17.24%	70.44%	-2.40	-5.1	16
1933-03-12	Osasuna	W 5-0	35.2	1479	1469	67.96%	17.38%	14.66%	+2.02	+18.2	19
1933-03-12	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 0-5	35.2	1469	1479	14.66%	17.38%	67.96%	-2.02	-18.2	13
1933-03-12	Castellon	W 6-0	29.9	1515	1356	76.58%	16.61%	6.81%	+3.65	+10.3	19
1933-03-12	@ Real Union	L 0-6	29.9	1356	1515	6.81%	16.61%	76.58%	-3.65	-10.3	4
1933-03-12	Real Oviedo	L 1-2	59.6	1450	1614	49.94%	17.67%	32.39%	+0.13	-11.3	12
1933-03-12	@ Sevilla	W 2-1	59.6	1614	1450	32.39%	17.67%	49.94%	-0.13	+11.3	24
1933-03-12	Celta Vigo	W 3-1	40.5	1501	1413	73.11%	17.03%	9.86%	+2.87	+4.6	16
1933-03-12	@ Sporting Gijon	L 1-3	40.5	1413	1501	9.86%	17.03%	73.11%	-2.87	-4.6	15
1933-03-19	Sporting Gijon	FL	54.0	1345	1506	50.34%	17.67%	31.98%	+0.16	+0.0	4
1933-03-19	@ Castellon	FW	54.0	1506	1345	31.98%	17.67%	50.34%	-0.16	+0.0	18
1933-03-19	Deportivo La Coruna	W 4-1	42.9	1409	1497	58.90%	17.63%	23.47%	+0.95	+14.5	17
1933-03-19	@ Celta Vigo	L 1-4	42.9	1497	1409	23.47%	17.63%	58.90%	-0.95	-14.5	19
1933-03-19	Sevilla	W 4-0	33.9	1451	1439	68.12%	17.37%	14.51%	+2.05	+14.6	15
1933-03-19	@ Osasuna	L 0-4	33.9	1439	1451	14.51%	17.37%	68.12%	-2.05	-14.6	12
1933-03-19	Real Union	W 2-1	48.0	1461	1525	61.49%	17.59%	20.92%	+1.22	+5.4	18
1933-03-19	@ Real Murcia	L 1-2	48.0	1525	1461	20.92%	17.59%	61.49%	-1.22	-5.4	19
1933-03-19	Atletico Madrid	W 5-1	45.2	1625	1517	74.21%	16.92%	8.87%	+3.10	+7.6	26
1933-03-19	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-5	45.2	1517	1625	8.87%	16.92%	74.21%	-3.10	-7.6	22
1933-03-26	Osasuna	FL	52.9	1345	1465	55.36%	17.66%	26.97%	+0.60	+0.0	4
1933-03-26	@ Castellon	FW	52.9	1465	1345	26.97%	17.66%	55.36%	-0.60	+0.0	17
1933-03-26	Real Murcia	L 1-2	57.4	1423	1467	63.41%	17.54%	19.04%	+1.44	-14.2	17
1933-03-26	@ Celta Vigo	W 2-1	57.4	1467	1423	19.04%	17.54%	63.41%	-1.44	+14.2	20
1933-03-26	Real Oviedo	D 2-2	71.9	1520	1633	56.20%	17.66%	26.14%	+0.68	-1.2	20
1933-03-26	@ Real Union	D 2-2	71.9	1633	1520	26.14%	17.66%	56.20%	-0.68	+1.2	27
1933-03-26	Deportivo La Coruna	D 1-1	59.5	1424	1483	61.99%	17.58%	20.43%	+1.27	-2.4	13
1933-03-26	@ Sevilla	D 1-1	59.5	1483	1424	20.43%	17.58%	61.99%	-1.27	+2.4	20
1933-03-26	Atletico Madrid	L 0-1	59.6	1506	1509	66.95%	17.42%	15.63%	+1.88	-15.9	18
1933-03-26	@ Sporting Gijon	W 1-0	59.6	1509	1506	15.63%	17.42%	66.95%	-1.88	+15.9	24

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1933-01-22	8.92%	Castellon	1387	2	@ Osasuna	1495	1
2	1933-01-22	9.84%	Celta Vigo	1386	2	@ Real Murcia	1475	1
3	1932-12-11	15.28%	Osasuna	1466	5	@ Atletico Madrid	1468	1
4	1932-12-18	15.61%	Real Union	1517	2	@ Osasuna	1514	1
5	1933-03-26	15.63%	Atletico Madrid	1509	1	@ Sporting Gijon	1506	0
6	1932-12-04	16.53%	Sevilla	1472	3	@ Castellon	1457	1
7	1932-12-25	16.58%	Real Oviedo	1539	3	@ Real Murcia	1524	1
8	1932-12-25	17.63%	Atletico Madrid	1424	4	@ Castellon	1397	3
9	1933-03-26	19.04%	Real Murcia	1467	2	@ Celta Vigo	1423	1
10	1933-02-12	19.46%	Real Union	1523	2	@ Sevilla	1475	1
11	1933-03-05	21.79%	Atletico Madrid	1499	3	@ Celta Vigo	1426	2
12	1933-02-12	21.90%	Real Oviedo	1593	3	@ Sporting Gijon	1519	2
13	1932-12-18	22.63%	Real Murcia	1501	3	@ Castellon	1420	1
14	1933-01-08	26.06%	Sporting Gijon	1520	4	@ Celta Vigo	1408	3
15	1933-01-29	31.52%	Real Oviedo	1561	2	@ Castellon	1404	0
16	1933-03-12	32.39%	Real Oviedo	1614	2	@ Sevilla	1450	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1932-12-11	47.79	Osasuna	5	1466	15.28%	@ Atletico Madrid	1	1468	67.31%	17.41%
2	1933-02-26	27.12	@ Deportivo La Coruna	5	1452	59.53%	Real Union	0	1535	22.85%	17.62%
3	1932-12-04	25.65	Sevilla	3	1472	16.53%	@ Castellon	1	1457	66.01%	17.46%
4	1932-12-25	25.63	Real Oviedo	3	1539	16.58%	@ Real Murcia	1	1524	65.96%	17.46%
5	1933-01-15	23.28	@ Real Union	9	1509	67.97%	Real Murcia	1	1499	14.65%	17.38%
6	1932-12-18	23.20	Real Murcia	3	1501	22.63%	@ Castellon	1	1420	59.75%	17.62%
7	1933-01-29	22.97	Real Oviedo	2	1561	31.52%	@ Castellon	0	1404	50.81%	17.68%
8	1933-01-08	22.31	@ Castellon	3	1373	50.69%	Real Union	0	1531	31.64%	17.68%
9	1933-01-08	21.09	@ Osasuna	8	1482	67.51%	Deportivo La Coruna	1	1477	15.09%	17.40%
10	1933-01-15	20.74	@ Atletico Madrid	3	1437	53.31%	Real Oviedo	0	1574	29.02%	17.67%
11	1933-02-05	19.19	@ Real Murcia	5	1444	58.30%	Sporting Gijon	1	1539	24.06%	17.64%
12	1933-03-12	18.16	@ Deportivo La Coruna	5	1479	67.96%	Osasuna	0	1469	14.66%	17.38%
13	1932-12-04	17.89	@ Real Union	7	1495	67.87%	Atletico Madrid	1	1486	14.75%	17.38%
14	1933-02-05	17.74	@ Celta Vigo	3	1396	58.12%	Osasuna	0	1492	24.24%	17.64%
15	1933-01-22	16.72	Castellon	2	1387	8.92%	@ Osasuna	1	1495	74.15%	16.92%
16	1933-01-22	16.48	Celta Vigo	2	1386	9.84%	@ Real Murcia	1	1475	73.13%	17.03%
17	1932-11-27	16.35	@ Real Oviedo	8	1532	71.33%	Castellon	1	1474	11.49%	17.18%
18	1932-12-25	16.15	@ Sporting Gijon	8	1489	66.36%	Osasuna	2	1499	16.20%	17.45%
19	1933-03-26	15.94	Atletico Madrid	1	1509	15.63%	@ Sporting Gijon	0	1506	66.95%	17.42%
20	1933-01-01	15.44	@ Sporting Gijon	5	1505	63.63%	Real Union	1	1546	18.84%	17.54%
21	1932-12-18	15.03	Real Union	2	1517	15.61%	@ Osasuna	1	1514	66.97%	17.42%
22	1932-12-25	14.76	@ Real Union	7	1532	70.79%	Deportivo La Coruna	1	1482	12.00%	17.22%
23	1933-03-19	14.59	@ Osasuna	4	1451	68.12%	Sevilla	0	1439	14.51%	17.37%
24	1933-03-19	14.55	@ Celta Vigo	4	1409	58.90%	Deportivo La Coruna	1	1497	23.47%	17.63%
25	1932-12-25	14.52	@ Celta Vigo	4	1401	58.95%	Sevilla	1	1489	23.42%	17.63%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1933-01-01	72.8	@ Osasuna	3	1483	59.67%	Real Oviedo	3	1564	22.71%	17.62%
2	1932-12-11	72.3	@ Real Oviedo	3	1539	70.66%	Sporting Gijon	3	1491	12.12%	17.22%
3	1933-03-26	71.9	@ Real Union	2	1520	56.20%	Real Oviedo	2	1633	26.14%	17.66%
4	1933-02-19	71.6	@ Real Union	3	1537	71.72%	Osasuna	3	1472	11.13%	17.15%
5	1933-02-12	68.7	Real Oviedo	3	1593	21.90%	@ Sporting Gijon	2	1519	60.49%	17.61%
6	1932-12-04	66.3	@ Sporting Gijon	2	1493	67.06%	Real Murcia	2	1494	15.52%	17.42%
7	1933-02-12	65.1	@ Osasuna	2	1475	66.70%	Atletico Madrid	2	1481	15.86%	17.43%
8	1933-01-08	64.8	Sporting Gijon	4	1520	26.06%	@ Celta Vigo	3	1408	56.28%	17.66%
9	1932-12-25	64.1	Atletico Madrid	4	1424	17.63%	@ Castellon	3	1397	64.87%	17.50%
10	1932-12-18	63.5	Real Union	2	1517	15.61%	@ Osasuna	1	1514	66.97%	17.42%
11	1932-12-25	62.9	Real Oviedo	3	1539	16.58%	@ Real Murcia	1	1524	65.96%	17.46%
12	1933-03-05	62.0	Atletico Madrid	3	1499	21.79%	@ Celta Vigo	2	1426	60.61%	17.60%
13	1933-02-12	61.1	Real Union	2	1523	19.46%	@ Sevilla	1	1475	62.99%	17.55%
14	1933-01-29	60.8	@ Deportivo La Coruna	1	1474	67.52%	Atletico Madrid	1	1469	15.08%	17.40%
15	1933-02-12	60.2	@ Deportivo La Coruna	1	1462	67.02%	Real Murcia	1	1464	15.56%	17.42%
16	1933-01-22	60.1	Castellon	2	1387	8.92%	@ Osasuna	1	1495	74.15%	16.92%
17	1933-03-12	59.6	Real Oviedo	2	1614	32.39%	@ Sevilla	1	1450	49.94%	17.67%
18	1933-03-26	59.6	Atletico Madrid	1	1509	15.63%	@ Sporting Gijon	0	1506	66.95%	17.42%
19	1933-03-26	59.5	@ Sevilla	1	1424	61.99%	Deportivo La Coruna	1	1483	20.43%	17.58%
20	1933-01-22	59.3	Celta Vigo	2	1386	9.84%	@ Real Murcia	1	1475	73.13%	17.03%
21	1932-11-27	58.9	@ Atletico Madrid	0	1489	68.79%	Deportivo La Coruna	0	1468	13.87%	17.34%
22	1933-02-26	58.7	@ Sevilla	1	1457	69.73%	Celta Vigo	1	1423	12.99%	17.28%
23	1932-12-04	58.0	Sevilla	3	1472	16.53%	@ Castellon	1	1457	66.01%	17.46%
24	1932-12-18	57.4	@ Sevilla	0	1493	72.23%	Atletico Madrid	0	1420	10.66%	17.11%
25	1933-03-26	57.4	Real Murcia	2	1467	19.04%	@ Celta Vigo	1	1423	63.41%	17.54%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1933-03-12	29.9	@ Real Union	6	1515	76.58%	Castellon	0	1356	6.81%	16.61%
2	1933-02-05	31.2	@ Sevilla	4	1464	72.84%	Castellon	0	1381	10.11%	17.05%
3	1933-01-01	31.3	@ Deportivo La Coruna	4	1467	72.85%	Castellon	0	1383	10.10%	17.05%
4	1933-02-26	32.9	@ Atletico Madrid	8	1486	74.72%	Castellon	1	1368	8.42%	16.86%
5	1933-03-19	33.9	@ Osasuna	4	1451	68.12%	Sevilla	0	1439	14.51%	17.37%
6	1933-01-29	34.6	@ Real Union	3	1525	74.86%	Celta Vigo	0	1403	8.29%	16.84%
7	1933-03-12	35.2	@ Deportivo La Coruna	5	1479	67.96%	Osasuna	0	1469	14.66%	17.38%
8	1933-01-01	36.0	@ Atletico Madrid	2	1438	68.87%	Celta Vigo	0	1415	13.79%	17.33%
9	1933-01-15	36.2	@ Sporting Gijon	6	1532	75.59%	Castellon	1	1395	7.66%	16.75%
10	1933-02-19	36.2	@ Real Murcia	1	1467	73.54%	Castellon	0	1370	9.47%	16.99%
11	1933-01-15	37.7	@ Deportivo La Coruna	7	1456	71.41%	Celta Vigo	2	1396	11.42%	17.17%
12	1933-02-05	38.3	@ Celta Vigo	3	1396	58.12%	Osasuna	0	1492	24.24%	17.64%
13	1933-01-08	38.5	@ Osasuna	8	1482	67.51%	Deportivo La Coruna	1	1477	15.09%	17.40%
14	1933-01-29	38.6	@ Osasuna	6	1478	68.65%	Real Murcia	1	1459	14.01%	17.34%
15	1932-12-11	39.1	@ Celta Vigo	4	1391	63.70%	Castellon	1	1432	18.76%	17.53%
16	1932-11-27	39.2	@ Real Oviedo	8	1532	71.33%	Castellon	1	1474	11.49%	17.18%
17	1933-02-19	39.2	@ Sporting Gijon	2	1507	70.66%	Deportivo La Coruna	0	1459	12.12%	17.22%
18	1933-02-26	39.2	@ Deportivo La Coruna	5	1452	59.53%	Real Union	0	1535	22.85%	17.62%
19	1933-02-26	39.6	@ Real Oviedo	3	1597	75.18%	Real Murcia	0	1469	8.02%	16.81%
20	1932-12-04	39.7	@ Real Union	7	1495	67.87%	Atletico Madrid	1	1486	14.75%	17.38%
21	1932-12-25	40.0	@ Real Union	7	1532	70.79%	Deportivo La Coruna	1	1482	12.00%	17.22%
22	1933-01-15	40.0	@ Real Union	9	1509	67.97%	Real Murcia	1	1499	14.65%	17.38%
23	1933-01-08	40.5	@ Real Murcia	4	1490	70.48%	Atletico Madrid	1	1445	12.29%	17.24%
24	1933-03-12	40.5	@ Sporting Gijon	3	1501	73.11%	Celta Vigo	1	1413	9.86%	17.03%
25	1933-01-08	41.0	@ Castellon	3	1373	50.69%	Real Union	0	1531	31.64%	17.68%