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1931-32 Segunda División Season

87 games

Final

Promoted

Real Betis

21 pts

Relegated

Europa

5 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Real Betis

6.51 points above expected

25 points · 18.49 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Europa

9.13 points below expected

5 points · 14.13 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Real Betis Promoted 18 10 5 3 25 40 30 +10 18.49 +6.51
2 Real Oviedo 18 11 1 6 23 48 26 +22 19.35 +3.65
3 Sporting Gijon 18 9 4 5 22 33 26 +7 18.82 +3.18
4 Real Murcia 18 10 1 7 21 39 32 +7 17.97 +3.03
5 Deportivo La Coruna 18 9 1 8 19 33 37 -4 17.63 +1.37
6 Atletico Madrid 18 8 2 8 18 39 37 +2 18.73 -0.73
7 Castellon 17 8 1 8 17 26 32 -6 16.64 +0.36
8 Sevilla 17 6 1 10 13 27 31 -4 17.25 -4.25
9 Celta Vigo 17 4 3 10 11 30 47 -17 14.99 -3.99
10 Europa Relegated 15 2 1 12 5 13 30 -17 14.13 -9.13

Notes

  • Europa withdrew from the league with 3 games remaining and was relegated to Tercera Division. The above table includes the results of their matches, but the official table does not count them. The only change this causes in the standings is Atletico Madrid finishing in 4th place with all other teams moving down one position.

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Real Oviedo 1573 23 19.35 +3.65 92.1% 7 15 17 19 21 24 30
Sporting Gijon 1532 22 18.82 +3.18 89.6% 8 14 17 19 21 24 31
Real Betis 1530 25 18.49 +6.51 99.0% 8 14 17 18 20 23 30
Real Murcia 1515 21 17.97 +3.03 88.2% 5 13 16 18 20 23 31
Atletico Madrid 1513 18 18.73 -0.73 47.0% 9 14 17 19 21 24 30
Castellon 1491 17 17.64 -0.64 48.3% 6 13 16 18 20 22 29
Deportivo La Coruna 1483 19 17.63 +1.37 74.1% 6 13 16 18 20 23 28
Sevilla 1474 13 18.25 -5.25 5.3% 7 13 16 18 20 23 30
Europa 1380 5 17.13 -12.13 0.0% 5 12 15 17 19 22 28
Celta Vigo 1368 11 15.99 -4.99 6.7% 5 11 14 16 18 21 26

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AM CAS CV DLC EUR RB RM RO SEV SG
Atletico Madrid —
1-0-1
2.98
2-0-0
3.20
1-0-1
3.02
0-0-2
3.06
1-0-1
2.74
1-0-1
2.89
1-0-1
2.84
1-0-1
2.93
0-2-0
2.79
Castellon
1-0-1
2.65
 —
1-0-1
3.03
1-0-1
2.76
1-0-0
2.35
0-1-1
2.81
1-0-1
2.73
1-0-1
2.41
1-0-1
2.74
1-0-1
2.57
Celta Vigo
0-0-2
2.44
1-0-1
2.60
 —
1-0-1
2.55
0-1-0
0.49
0-1-1
2.29
1-0-1
2.54
0-0-2
2.37
1-0-1
2.39
0-1-1
2.34
Deportivo La Coruna
1-0-1
2.61
1-0-1
2.87
1-0-1
3.09
 —
2-0-0
2.89
0-1-1
2.70
1-0-1
2.78
1-0-1
2.49
1-0-1
2.77
1-0-1
2.67
Europa
2-0-0
2.57
0-0-1
0.47
0-1-0
2.33
0-0-2
2.73
 —
0-0-2
2.53
0-0-2
2.87
0-0-2
2.67
0-0-1
2.33
0-0-2
2.52
Real Betis
1-0-1
2.89
1-1-0
2.82
1-1-0
3.34
1-1-0
2.94
2-0-0
3.10
 —
1-1-0
2.82
1-0-1
2.57
1-1-0
2.78
1-0-1
2.79
Real Murcia
1-0-1
2.74
1-0-1
2.90
1-0-1
3.10
1-0-1
2.85
2-0-0
2.75
0-1-1
2.81
 —
1-0-1
2.59
2-0-0
2.80
1-0-1
2.71
Real Oviedo
1-0-1
2.79
1-0-1
3.22
2-0-0
3.26
1-0-1
3.14
2-0-0
2.97
1-0-1
3.06
1-0-1
3.04
 —
2-0-0
2.98
0-1-1
2.97
Sevilla
1-0-1
2.70
1-0-1
2.89
1-0-1
3.25
1-0-1
2.85
1-0-0
0.48
0-1-1
2.85
0-0-2
2.83
0-0-2
2.65
 —
1-0-1
2.80
Sporting Gijon
0-2-0
2.85
1-0-1
3.06
1-1-0
3.29
1-0-1
2.96
2-0-0
3.12
1-0-1
2.84
1-0-1
2.92
1-1-0
2.66
1-0-1
2.83
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.74 +5.5
Allowed 0.15 -3.8
Differential 0.77 +4.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.15%5.75%5.75%4.02%2.30%2.30%21.26%
15.75%3.45%5.17%5.17%4.02%1.72%25.29%
25.75%5.17%4.60%4.02%2.30%1.15%22.99%
34.02%5.17%4.02%2.30%—0.57%16.09%
42.30%4.02%2.30%———8.62%
5+2.30%1.72%1.15%0.57%——5.75%
Total21.26%25.29%22.99%16.09%8.62%5.75%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 1.89 +0.00
SD 1.63 1.63 2.61
CV 0.86 0.86 —
Max 10 10 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 87

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—11.11%5.56%—22.22%
15.56%5.56%5.56%——5.56%22.22%
25.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
3——5.56%———5.56%
45.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total16.67%27.78%22.22%16.67%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 2.06 +0.11
SD 2.38 1.70 3.31
CV 1.10 0.83 —
Max 10 6 +9
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——17.65%—5.88%5.88%29.41%
15.88%——11.76%——17.65%
217.65%—5.88%5.88%——29.41%
35.88%—11.76%———17.65%
4——5.88%———5.88%
5+———————
Total29.41%—41.18%17.65%5.88%5.88%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 1.88 -0.35
SD 1.28 1.50 2.34
CV 0.84 0.79 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—————5.88%5.88%
1—5.88%5.88%17.65%11.76%—41.18%
2—5.88%5.88%5.88%5.88%5.88%29.41%
3—5.88%5.88%5.88%——17.65%
45.88%—————5.88%
5+———————
Total5.88%17.65%17.65%29.41%17.65%11.76%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.76 2.76 -1.00
SD 1.03 1.56 2.26
CV 0.59 0.57 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%——5.56%16.67%
1——5.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%27.78%
211.11%11.11%——5.56%—27.78%
311.11%—5.56%———16.67%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total33.33%11.11%22.22%5.56%16.67%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 2.06 -0.22
SD 1.38 2.04 2.96
CV 0.75 0.99 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.33%13.33%13.33%——40.00%
16.67%—26.67%6.67%——40.00%
2—6.67%—6.67%——13.33%
3———6.67%——6.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total6.67%20.00%40.00%33.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.87 2.00 -1.13
SD 0.92 0.93 1.19
CV 1.06 0.46 —
Max 3 3 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
15.56%11.11%——5.56%5.56%27.78%
2—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
35.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
45.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%44.44%22.22%—5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 1.67 +0.56
SD 1.48 2.30 2.97
CV 0.66 1.38 —
Max 5 10 +4
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—5.56%5.56%5.56%22.22%
15.56%—5.56%5.56%5.56%—22.22%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
Total22.22%33.33%16.67%11.11%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 1.78 +0.39
SD 1.92 1.66 3.09
CV 0.88 0.94 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%16.67%———27.78%
15.56%—————5.56%
2—11.11%——5.56%—16.67%
3—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+16.67%—5.56%5.56%——27.78%
Total22.22%33.33%27.78%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.67 1.44 +1.22
SD 2.25 1.15 2.71
CV 0.84 0.80 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.76%5.88%—5.88%—23.53%
15.88%5.88%5.88%5.88%——23.53%
211.76%——11.76%5.88%—29.41%
35.88%5.88%———5.88%17.65%
4—5.88%————5.88%
5+———————
Total23.53%29.41%11.76%17.65%11.76%5.88%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.82 -0.24
SD 1.23 1.59 2.05
CV 0.77 0.87 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—11.11%——16.67%
116.67%5.56%——5.56%—27.78%
25.56%—11.11%5.56%——22.22%
35.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+———————
Total27.78%33.33%11.11%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.44 +0.39
SD 1.29 1.29 2.00
CV 0.71 0.90 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Real Betis 25 18.49 +6.51
2 Real Oviedo 23 19.35 +3.65
3 Sporting Gijon 22 18.82 +3.18
4 Real Murcia 21 17.97 +3.03
5 Deportivo La Coruna 19 17.63 +1.37

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Europa 5 14.13 -9.13
2 Sevilla 13 17.25 -4.25
3 Celta Vigo 11 14.99 -3.99
4 Atletico Madrid 18 18.73 -0.73
5 Castellon 17 16.64 +0.36

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Real Oviedo 5 Nov 22 – Jan 3 1 in 203
2 Deportivo La Coruna 4 Feb 14 – Mar 6 1 in 17
3 Real Betis 2 Nov 29 – Dec 20 1 in 16
4 Real Murcia 3 Feb 28 – Mar 13 1 in 16
5 Sevilla 2 Jan 10 – Jan 17 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sevilla 4 Nov 29 – Jan 3 1 in 181
2 Europa 4 Jan 3 – Jan 24 1 in 134
3 Atletico Madrid 3 Feb 14 – Feb 28 1 in 39
4 Celta Vigo 4 Feb 14 – Mar 6 1 in 12
5 Real Oviedo 2 Jan 31 – Feb 7 1 in 2

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Real Betis 7 Jan 24 – Mar 6 1 in 37
2 Sporting Gijon 7 Dec 27 – Feb 7 1 in 18
3 Real Oviedo 5 Nov 22 – Jan 3 1 in 15
4 Atletico Madrid 3 Mar 6 – Mar 20 1 in 5
5 Real Murcia 3 Jan 31 – Feb 14 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Europa 8 Jan 3 – Feb 21 1 in 391
2 Celta Vigo 7 Feb 14 – Mar 27 1 in 18
3 Sevilla 4 Nov 29 – Jan 3 1 in 15
4 Atletico Madrid 4 Feb 14 – Mar 6 1 in 6
5 Sporting Gijon 3 Feb 28 – Mar 13 1 in 5

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Real Betis13.22%12.23%11.91%11.97%10.47%9.39%9.92%7.90%7.12%5.87%
Real Oviedo22.25%16.19%13.30%10.44%9.48%8.51%6.46%6.00%4.38%2.99%
Sporting Gijon13.93%13.85%13.05%11.81%10.50%9.98%8.59%7.44%6.42%4.43%
Real Murcia9.60%10.62%10.51%11.16%10.56%10.00%10.64%9.59%9.25%8.07%
Deportivo La Coruna6.68%8.16%8.70%9.44%10.51%10.93%11.61%11.61%11.45%10.91%
Atletico Madrid12.94%13.00%11.54%11.66%11.31%10.01%9.11%8.78%6.63%5.02%
Castellon6.06%7.57%9.09%9.47%10.48%11.22%11.13%11.99%12.33%10.66%
Sevilla8.99%9.71%10.74%10.95%11.18%10.70%10.79%10.17%9.20%7.57%
Celta Vigo2.13%3.05%4.32%5.32%6.70%8.70%10.29%13.77%17.73%27.99%
Europa4.20%5.62%6.84%7.78%8.81%10.56%11.46%12.75%15.49%16.49%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+58.62%
Strong Edge
73.56%11.49%14.94%
Elo Value
Home Edge
140 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0233.43400
Scoring Tilt
Expected +1.66 goals
+1.70 goals
Strong Home
-2+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
7.6
Wide Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
13%
Real Betis, 3rd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.12/gm
Photo Finish
00.100.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.33 * Some Luck: 2.33 to 3.49 * Lucky: 3.49 to 4.65 * Wild Swing: 4.65 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.92 * Close: 1.92 to 2.88 * Off: 2.88 to 3.84 * Way Off: 3.84 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.72 * A Surprise: 0.72 to 1.15 * Several Surprises: 1.15 to 1.58 * Many Surprises: 1.58 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.45 points
Lucky
02.917
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.80
Pinpoint
02.405
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
98.47%
Real Betis
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
0.03%
Europa
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 1
A Surprise
00.71

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.49
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
57%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
76%
Clear Edge
50%78%100%
Close Games
Expected
41%
Frequent
0%41%100%
Blowouts
Expected
31%
Very Frequent
0%36%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.42
Highly Predictable
00.472
Matchup Imbalance
0.70
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
2.47
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
-0.35
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
15%
Chalky
0%12%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
15%
Solid Favorites
0%12%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.09 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.09 to 0.14 * Above Noise: 0.14 to 0.18 * Well Above Noise: 0.18 and up.
Probability calibration
0.47
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.96
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.019
Well Within Noise
00.0910.25

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Same level Direct relegation
Real Oviedo 22.25% 74.76% 2.99%
Sporting Gijon 13.93% 81.64% 4.43%
Atletico Madrid 12.94% 82.04% 5.02%
Real Betis 13.22% 80.91% 5.87%
Real Murcia 9.60% 82.33% 8.07%
Sevilla 8.99% 83.44% 7.57%
Deportivo La Coruna 6.68% 82.41% 10.91%
Castellon 6.06% 83.28% 10.66%
Europa 4.20% 79.31% 16.49%
Celta Vigo 2.13% 69.88% 27.99%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1931-11-22 Real Betis D 2-2 1493 1457 72.1% 18.3% 9.6% -3.7 1
1931-11-22 @ Castellon D 2-2 1457 1493 9.6% 18.3% 72.1% +3.7 1
1931-11-22 Sporting Gijon W 3-2 1468 1493 68.2% 18.6% 13.2% +4.5 2
1931-11-22 @ Deportivo La Coruna L 2-3 1493 1468 13.2% 18.6% 68.2% -4.5 0
1931-11-22 Europa W 3-0 1456 1546 63.1% 18.8% 18.1% +18.4 2
1931-11-22 @ Real Murcia L 0-3 1546 1456 18.1% 18.8% 63.1% -18.4 0
1931-11-22 Atletico Madrid W 6-2 1485 1524 67.2% 18.6% 14.1% +13.5 2
1931-11-22 @ Real Oviedo L 2-6 1524 1485 14.1% 18.6% 67.2% -13.5 0
1931-11-22 Celta Vigo W 4-1 1520 1418 75.2% 18.0% 6.8% +6.2 2
1931-11-22 @ Sevilla L 1-4 1418 1520 6.8% 18.0% 75.2% -6.2 0
1931-11-29 Deportivo La Coruna W 4-1 1511 1472 72.2% 18.3% 9.5% +8.5 2
1931-11-29 @ Atletico Madrid L 1-4 1472 1511 9.5% 18.3% 72.2% -8.5 2
1931-11-29 Castellon W 3-2 1412 1489 64.1% 18.7% 17.1% +5.7 2
1931-11-29 @ Celta Vigo L 2-3 1489 1412 17.1% 18.7% 64.1% -5.7 1
1931-11-29 Real Oviedo L 2-3 1527 1499 71.6% 18.4% 10.0% -20.3 0
1931-11-29 @ Europa W 3-2 1499 1527 10.0% 18.4% 71.6% +20.3 4
1931-11-29 Real Murcia W 4-1 1460 1474 69.0% 18.5% 12.5% +11.0 3
1931-11-29 @ Real Betis L 1-4 1474 1460 12.5% 18.5% 69.0% -11.0 2
1931-11-29 Sevilla W 1-0 1489 1526 67.3% 18.6% 14.0% +5.3 2
1931-11-29 @ Sporting Gijon L 0-1 1526 1489 14.0% 18.6% 67.3% -5.3 2
1931-12-20 Castellon W 2-0 1519 1484 72.0% 18.3% 9.7% +7.1 4
1931-12-20 @ Atletico Madrid L 0-2 1484 1519 9.7% 18.3% 72.0% -7.1 1
1931-12-20 Europa W 3-0 1464 1507 66.9% 18.6% 14.4% +15.0 4
1931-12-20 @ Deportivo La Coruna L 0-3 1507 1464 14.4% 18.6% 66.9% -15.0 0
1931-12-20 Sporting Gijon W 4-1 1463 1494 67.8% 18.6% 13.6% +11.9 4
1931-12-20 @ Real Murcia L 1-4 1494 1463 13.6% 18.6% 67.8% -11.9 2
1931-12-20 Celta Vigo W 4-1 1519 1417 75.2% 18.0% 6.8% +6.2 6
1931-12-20 @ Real Oviedo L 1-4 1417 1519 6.8% 18.0% 75.2% -6.2 2
1931-12-20 Real Betis L 2-3 1521 1471 72.8% 18.3% 8.9% -20.7 2
1931-12-20 @ Sevilla W 3-2 1471 1521 8.9% 18.3% 72.8% +20.7 5
1931-12-27 Deportivo La Coruna W 4-2 1477 1478 69.8% 18.5% 11.7% +6.6 3
1931-12-27 @ Castellon L 2-4 1478 1477 11.7% 18.5% 69.8% -6.6 4
1931-12-27 Real Murcia W 3-1 1411 1475 65.3% 18.7% 16.0% +9.8 4
1931-12-27 @ Celta Vigo L 1-3 1475 1411 16.0% 18.7% 65.3% -9.8 4
1931-12-27 Atletico Madrid W 2-1 1492 1526 67.6% 18.6% 13.8% +4.9 2
1931-12-27 @ Europa L 1-2 1526 1492 13.8% 18.6% 67.6% -4.9 4
1931-12-27 Real Oviedo L 3-5 1500 1525 68.3% 18.6% 13.2% -29.8 2
1931-12-27 @ Sevilla W 5-3 1525 1500 13.2% 18.6% 68.3% +29.8 8
1931-12-27 Real Betis W 4-1 1482 1492 69.3% 18.5% 12.2% +10.8 4
1931-12-27 @ Sporting Gijon L 1-4 1492 1482 12.2% 18.5% 69.3% -10.8 5
1932-01-03 Sporting Gijon D 2-2 1521 1493 71.6% 18.4% 10.0% -3.6 5
1932-01-03 @ Atletico Madrid D 2-2 1493 1521 10.0% 18.4% 71.6% +3.6 5
1932-01-03 Deportivo La Coruna W 2-1 1421 1472 66.3% 18.7% 15.0% +5.3 6
1932-01-03 @ Celta Vigo L 1-2 1472 1421 15.0% 18.7% 66.3% -5.3 4
1932-01-03 Europa W 2-1 1481 1497 68.9% 18.6% 12.6% +4.5 7
1932-01-03 @ Real Betis L 1-2 1497 1481 12.6% 18.6% 68.9% -4.5 2
1932-01-03 Sevilla W 3-1 1466 1471 69.6% 18.5% 11.9% +7.5 6
1932-01-03 @ Real Murcia L 1-3 1471 1466 11.9% 18.5% 69.6% -7.5 2
1932-01-03 Castellon W 5-0 1555 1483 73.9% 18.2% 8.0% +13.8 10
1932-01-03 @ Real Oviedo L 0-5 1483 1555 8.0% 18.2% 73.9% -13.8 3
1932-01-10 Real Murcia W 1-0 1469 1473 69.7% 18.5% 11.8% +4.5 5
1932-01-10 @ Castellon L 0-1 1473 1469 11.8% 18.5% 69.7% -4.5 6
1932-01-10 Real Oviedo W 2-0 1467 1569 62.0% 18.8% 19.3% +13.4 6
1932-01-10 @ Deportivo La Coruna L 0-2 1569 1467 19.3% 18.8% 62.0% -13.4 10
1932-01-10 Sevilla L 0-2 1493 1463 71.7% 18.4% 10.0% -42.9 2
1932-01-10 @ Europa W 2-0 1463 1493 10.0% 18.4% 71.7% +42.9 4
1932-01-10 Atletico Madrid W 5-1 1486 1518 67.8% 18.6% 13.6% +15.5 9
1932-01-10 @ Real Betis L 1-5 1518 1486 13.6% 18.6% 67.8% -15.5 5
1932-01-10 Celta Vigo W 3-1 1497 1426 73.8% 18.2% 8.0% +5.1 7
1932-01-10 @ Sporting Gijon L 1-3 1426 1497 8.0% 18.2% 73.8% -5.1 6
1932-01-17 Atletico Madrid L 1-2 1421 1502 63.8% 18.7% 17.4% -19.0 6
1932-01-17 @ Celta Vigo W 2-1 1502 1421 17.4% 18.7% 63.8% +19.0 7
1932-01-17 Sporting Gijon L 0-1 1450 1502 66.2% 18.7% 15.1% -20.9 2
1932-01-17 @ Europa W 1-0 1502 1450 15.1% 18.7% 66.2% +20.9 9
1932-01-17 Deportivo La Coruna W 6-1 1468 1480 69.2% 18.5% 12.3% +17.2 8
1932-01-17 @ Real Murcia L 1-6 1480 1468 12.3% 18.5% 69.2% -17.2 6
1932-01-17 Real Betis W 1-0 1556 1501 73.0% 18.2% 8.7% +3.4 12
1932-01-17 @ Real Oviedo L 0-1 1501 1556 8.7% 18.2% 73.0% -3.4 9
1932-01-17 Castellon W 3-1 1506 1474 71.8% 18.4% 9.8% +6.2 6
1932-01-17 @ Sevilla L 1-3 1474 1506 9.8% 18.4% 71.8% -6.2 5
1932-01-24 Real Murcia W 4-0 1521 1486 72.0% 18.3% 9.6% +13.4 9
1932-01-24 @ Atletico Madrid L 0-4 1486 1521 9.6% 18.3% 72.0% -13.4 8
1932-01-24 Europa W 2-0 1468 1429 72.2% 18.3% 9.5% +7.0 7
1932-01-24 @ Castellon L 0-2 1429 1468 9.5% 18.3% 72.2% -7.0 2
1932-01-24 Sevilla W 4-2 1463 1512 66.5% 18.7% 14.9% +8.2 8
1932-01-24 @ Deportivo La Coruna L 2-4 1512 1463 14.9% 18.7% 66.5% -8.2 6
1932-01-24 Celta Vigo W 3-1 1498 1402 74.9% 18.0% 7.0% +4.5 11
1932-01-24 @ Real Betis L 1-3 1402 1498 7.0% 18.0% 74.9% -4.5 6
1932-01-24 Real Oviedo D 3-3 1523 1559 67.5% 18.6% 13.9% -2.6 10
1932-01-24 @ Sporting Gijon D 3-3 1559 1523 13.9% 18.6% 67.5% +2.6 13
1932-01-31 Real Betis D 0-0 1471 1502 67.8% 18.6% 13.6% -4.7 9
1932-01-31 @ Deportivo La Coruna D 0-0 1502 1471 13.6% 18.6% 67.8% +4.7 12
1932-01-31 Celta Vigo D 3-3 1422 1398 71.4% 18.4% 10.2% -3.0 3
1932-01-31 @ Europa D 3-3 1398 1422 10.2% 18.4% 71.4% +3.0 7
1932-01-31 Real Oviedo W 2-0 1472 1562 63.1% 18.8% 18.1% +12.6 10
1932-01-31 @ Real Murcia L 0-2 1562 1472 18.1% 18.8% 63.1% -12.6 13
1932-01-31 Atletico Madrid W 3-0 1504 1535 67.9% 18.6% 13.5% +14.1 8
1932-01-31 @ Sevilla L 0-3 1535 1504 13.5% 18.6% 67.9% -14.1 9
1932-01-31 Castellon W 2-0 1520 1475 72.5% 18.3% 9.2% +6.7 12
1932-01-31 @ Sporting Gijon L 0-2 1475 1520 9.2% 18.3% 72.5% -6.7 7
1932-02-07 Real Oviedo W 1-0 1521 1549 68.0% 18.6% 13.4% +5.1 11
1932-02-07 @ Atletico Madrid L 0-1 1549 1521 13.4% 18.6% 68.0% -5.1 13
1932-02-07 Sevilla W 4-0 1401 1518 60.5% 18.8% 20.7% +27.0 9
1932-02-07 @ Celta Vigo L 0-4 1518 1401 20.7% 18.8% 60.5% -27.0 8
1932-02-07 Real Murcia L 1-2 1419 1485 65.1% 18.7% 16.2% -19.4 3
1932-02-07 @ Europa W 2-1 1485 1419 16.2% 18.7% 65.1% +19.4 12
1932-02-07 Castellon W 4-0 1507 1468 72.2% 18.3% 9.5% +13.2 14
1932-02-07 @ Real Betis L 0-4 1468 1507 9.5% 18.3% 72.2% -13.2 7
1932-02-07 Deportivo La Coruna W 4-1 1527 1466 73.3% 18.2% 8.5% +7.6 14
1932-02-07 @ Sporting Gijon L 1-4 1466 1527 8.5% 18.2% 73.3% -7.6 9
1932-02-14 Celta Vigo W 3-2 1455 1428 71.5% 18.4% 10.1% +3.5 9
1932-02-14 @ Castellon L 2-3 1428 1455 10.1% 18.4% 71.5% -3.5 9
1932-02-14 Atletico Madrid W 3-0 1459 1526 65.1% 18.7% 16.2% +16.6 11
1932-02-14 @ Deportivo La Coruna L 0-3 1526 1459 16.2% 18.7% 65.1% -16.6 11
1932-02-14 Real Betis D 2-2 1504 1520 68.9% 18.6% 12.6% -3.3 13
1932-02-14 @ Real Murcia D 2-2 1520 1504 12.6% 18.6% 68.9% +3.3 15
1932-02-14 Europa W 2-1 1544 1399 76.8% 17.7% 5.4% +2.0 15
1932-02-14 @ Real Oviedo L 1-2 1399 1544 5.4% 17.7% 76.8% -2.0 3
1932-02-14 Sporting Gijon W 1-0 1491 1535 66.9% 18.6% 14.4% +5.5 10
1932-02-14 @ Sevilla L 0-1 1535 1491 14.4% 18.6% 66.9% -5.5 14
1932-02-21 Atletico Madrid W 3-2 1458 1509 66.4% 18.7% 15.0% +5.0 11
1932-02-21 @ Castellon L 2-3 1509 1458 15.0% 18.7% 66.4% -5.0 11
1932-02-21 Real Oviedo L 1-3 1424 1546 60.1% 18.8% 21.1% -30.9 9
1932-02-21 @ Celta Vigo W 3-1 1546 1424 21.1% 18.8% 60.1% +30.9 17
1932-02-21 Deportivo La Coruna L 1-2 1397 1475 64.1% 18.7% 17.1% -19.1 3
1932-02-21 @ Europa W 2-1 1475 1397 17.1% 18.7% 64.1% +19.1 13
1932-02-21 Sevilla D 1-1 1523 1497 71.5% 18.4% 10.1% -4.9 16
1932-02-21 @ Real Betis D 1-1 1497 1523 10.1% 18.4% 71.5% +4.8 11
1932-02-21 Real Murcia W 3-0 1529 1501 71.6% 18.4% 10.0% +10.7 16
1932-02-21 @ Sporting Gijon L 0-3 1501 1529 10.0% 18.4% 71.6% -10.7 13
1932-02-28 Europa L 0-1 1504 1378 76.1% 17.9% 6.0% -24.2 11
1932-02-28 @ Atletico Madrid W 1-0 1378 1504 6.0% 17.9% 76.1% +24.2 5
1932-02-28 Castellon W 2-0 1494 1463 71.8% 18.4% 9.9% +7.2 15
1932-02-28 @ Deportivo La Coruna L 0-2 1463 1494 9.9% 18.4% 71.8% -7.2 11
1932-02-28 Sporting Gijon W 3-0 1519 1540 68.5% 18.6% 12.9% +13.5 18
1932-02-28 @ Real Betis L 0-3 1540 1519 12.9% 18.6% 68.5% -13.5 16
1932-02-28 Celta Vigo W 6-2 1490 1393 75.0% 18.0% 7.0% +6.9 15
1932-02-28 @ Real Murcia L 2-6 1393 1490 7.0% 18.0% 75.0% -6.9 9
1932-02-28 Sevilla W 2-1 1577 1501 74.0% 18.1% 7.8% +2.9 19
1932-02-28 @ Real Oviedo L 1-2 1501 1577 7.8% 18.1% 74.0% -2.9 11
1932-03-06 Real Oviedo W 2-0 1456 1580 59.9% 18.8% 21.3% +14.6 13
1932-03-06 @ Castellon L 0-2 1580 1456 21.3% 18.8% 59.9% -14.6 19
1932-03-06 Celta Vigo W 5-0 1502 1386 75.8% 17.9% 6.3% +11.0 17
1932-03-06 @ Deportivo La Coruna L 0-5 1386 1502 6.3% 17.9% 75.8% -11.0 9
1932-03-06 Real Betis L 0-1 1403 1532 59.3% 18.8% 21.9% -18.7 5
1932-03-06 @ Europa W 1-0 1532 1403 21.9% 18.8% 59.3% +18.7 20
1932-03-06 Real Murcia L 0-1 1499 1497 70.0% 18.5% 11.5% -22.2 11
1932-03-06 @ Sevilla W 1-0 1497 1499 11.5% 18.5% 70.0% +22.2 17
1932-03-06 Atletico Madrid D 1-1 1526 1480 72.6% 18.3% 9.1% -5.0 17
1932-03-06 @ Sporting Gijon D 1-1 1480 1526 9.1% 18.3% 72.6% +5.0 12
1932-03-13 Real Betis W 10-1 1485 1551 65.1% 18.7% 16.2% +38.2 14
1932-03-13 @ Atletico Madrid L 1-10 1551 1485 16.2% 18.7% 65.1% -38.2 20
1932-03-13 Sporting Gijon D 2-2 1375 1521 57.5% 18.8% 23.6% -1.9 10
1932-03-13 @ Celta Vigo D 2-2 1521 1375 23.6% 18.8% 57.5% +1.9 18
1932-03-13 Castellon W 3-1 1519 1471 72.7% 18.3% 9.0% +5.7 19
1932-03-13 @ Real Murcia L 1-3 1471 1519 9.0% 18.3% 72.7% -5.7 13
1932-03-13 Deportivo La Coruna W 6-0 1565 1513 72.9% 18.3% 8.8% +18.0 21
1932-03-13 @ Real Oviedo L 0-6 1513 1565 8.8% 18.3% 72.9% -18.0 17
1932-03-20 Celta Vigo W 4-2 1523 1373 77.0% 17.7% 5.3% +3.0 16
1932-03-20 @ Atletico Madrid L 2-4 1373 1523 5.3% 17.7% 77.0% -3.0 10
1932-03-20 Sevilla W 2-0 1465 1476 69.2% 18.5% 12.3% +8.9 15
1932-03-20 @ Castellon L 0-2 1476 1465 12.3% 18.5% 69.2% -8.9 11
1932-03-20 Real Murcia W 2-1 1495 1525 67.9% 18.6% 13.5% +4.9 19
1932-03-20 @ Deportivo La Coruna L 1-2 1525 1495 13.5% 18.6% 67.9% -4.9 19
1932-03-20 Real Oviedo W 4-2 1512 1583 64.8% 18.7% 16.5% +9.0 22
1932-03-20 @ Real Betis L 2-4 1583 1512 16.5% 18.7% 64.8% -9.0 21
1932-03-20 Europa W 3-1 1523 1384 76.6% 17.8% 5.6% +3.6 20
1932-03-20 @ Sporting Gijon L 1-3 1384 1523 5.6% 17.8% 76.6% -3.6 5
1932-03-27 Real Betis D 1-1 1370 1522 57.0% 18.8% 24.2% -2.4 11
1932-03-27 @ Celta Vigo D 1-1 1522 1370 24.2% 18.8% 57.0% +2.4 23
1932-03-27 Atletico Madrid W 4-0 1520 1526 69.5% 18.5% 11.9% +16.4 21
1932-03-27 @ Real Murcia L 0-4 1526 1520 11.9% 18.5% 69.5% -16.4 16
1932-03-27 Sporting Gijon L 0-1 1574 1527 72.7% 18.3% 9.1% -23.1 21
1932-03-27 @ Real Oviedo W 1-0 1527 1574 9.1% 18.3% 72.7% +23.1 22
1932-03-27 Deportivo La Coruna W 2-0 1468 1499 67.8% 18.6% 13.6% +9.8 13
1932-03-27 @ Sevilla L 0-2 1499 1468 13.6% 18.6% 67.8% -9.8 19
1932-04-03 Sevilla W 3-2 1510 1477 71.8% 18.4% 9.8% +3.4 18
1932-04-03 @ Atletico Madrid L 2-3 1477 1510 9.8% 18.4% 71.8% -3.4 13
1932-04-03 Sporting Gijon W 3-0 1474 1550 64.3% 18.7% 17.0% +17.3 17
1932-04-03 @ Castellon L 0-3 1550 1474 17.0% 18.7% 64.3% -17.3 22
1932-04-03 Deportivo La Coruna W 3-1 1524 1490 71.9% 18.4% 9.7% +6.2 25
1932-04-03 @ Real Betis L 1-3 1490 1524 9.7% 18.4% 71.9% -6.2 19
1932-04-03 Real Murcia W 6-0 1551 1537 70.8% 18.4% 10.8% +21.8 23
1932-04-03 @ Real Oviedo L 0-6 1537 1551 10.8% 18.4% 70.8% -21.8 21

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1932-02-28 6.00% Europa 1378 1 @ Atletico Madrid 1504 0
2 1931-12-20 8.95% Real Betis 1471 3 @ Sevilla 1521 2
3 1932-03-27 9.06% Sporting Gijon 1527 1 @ Real Oviedo 1574 0
4 1932-01-10 9.96% Sevilla 1463 2 @ Europa 1493 0
5 1931-11-29 10.00% Real Oviedo 1499 3 @ Europa 1527 2
6 1932-03-06 11.51% Real Murcia 1497 1 @ Sevilla 1499 0
7 1931-12-27 13.16% Real Oviedo 1525 5 @ Sevilla 1500 3
8 1932-01-17 15.09% Sporting Gijon 1502 1 @ Europa 1450 0
9 1932-02-07 16.16% Real Murcia 1485 2 @ Europa 1419 1
10 1932-02-21 17.13% Deportivo La Coruna 1475 2 @ Europa 1397 1
11 1932-01-17 17.41% Atletico Madrid 1502 2 @ Celta Vigo 1421 1
12 1932-02-21 21.13% Real Oviedo 1546 3 @ Celta Vigo 1424 1
13 1932-03-06 21.90% Real Betis 1532 1 @ Europa 1403 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1932-01-10 42.90 Sevilla 2 1463 9.96% @ Europa 0 1493 71.67% 18.37%
2 1932-03-13 38.25 @ Atletico Madrid 10 1485 65.14% Real Betis 1 1551 16.15% 18.70%
3 1932-02-21 30.92 Real Oviedo 3 1546 21.13% @ Celta Vigo 1 1424 60.06% 18.81%
4 1931-12-27 29.81 Real Oviedo 5 1525 13.16% @ Sevilla 3 1500 68.26% 18.58%
5 1932-02-07 27.01 @ Celta Vigo 4 1401 60.47% Sevilla 0 1518 20.72% 18.80%
6 1932-02-28 24.25 Europa 1 1378 6.00% @ Atletico Madrid 0 1504 76.14% 17.86%
7 1932-03-27 23.08 Sporting Gijon 1 1527 9.06% @ Real Oviedo 0 1574 72.65% 18.29%
8 1932-03-06 22.19 Real Murcia 1 1497 11.51% @ Sevilla 0 1499 70.00% 18.49%
9 1932-04-03 21.78 @ Real Oviedo 6 1551 70.80% Real Murcia 0 1537 10.77% 18.43%
10 1932-01-17 20.93 Sporting Gijon 1 1502 15.09% @ Europa 0 1450 66.25% 18.67%
11 1931-12-20 20.68 Real Betis 3 1471 8.95% @ Sevilla 2 1521 72.78% 18.28%
12 1931-11-29 20.34 Real Oviedo 3 1499 10.00% @ Europa 2 1527 71.63% 18.37%
13 1932-02-07 19.39 Real Murcia 2 1485 16.16% @ Europa 1 1419 65.14% 18.70%
14 1932-02-21 19.08 Deportivo La Coruna 2 1475 17.13% @ Europa 1 1397 64.14% 18.73%
15 1932-01-17 19.00 Atletico Madrid 2 1502 17.41% @ Celta Vigo 1 1421 63.85% 18.74%
16 1932-03-06 18.69 Real Betis 1 1532 21.90% @ Europa 0 1403 59.28% 18.82%
17 1931-11-22 18.39 @ Real Murcia 3 1456 63.10% Europa 0 1546 18.15% 18.76%
18 1932-03-13 18.04 @ Real Oviedo 6 1565 72.91% Deportivo La Coruna 0 1513 8.83% 18.26%
19 1932-04-03 17.31 @ Castellon 3 1474 64.31% Sporting Gijon 0 1550 16.96% 18.73%
20 1932-01-17 17.20 @ Real Murcia 6 1468 69.17% Deportivo La Coruna 1 1480 12.29% 18.53%
21 1932-02-14 16.64 @ Deportivo La Coruna 3 1459 65.06% Atletico Madrid 0 1526 16.24% 18.70%
22 1932-03-27 16.38 @ Real Murcia 4 1520 69.55% Atletico Madrid 0 1526 11.93% 18.51%
23 1932-01-10 15.46 @ Real Betis 5 1486 67.76% Atletico Madrid 1 1518 13.64% 18.60%
24 1931-12-20 14.97 @ Deportivo La Coruna 3 1464 66.90% Europa 0 1507 14.45% 18.64%
25 1932-03-06 14.58 @ Castellon 2 1456 59.89% Real Oviedo 0 1580 21.30% 18.81%