1930-31 Segunda División Season

90 games

Final

Promoted

Valencia

26 pts

Relegated

Iberia

13 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Valencia

7.45 points above expected

26 points · 18.55 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Iberia

4.85 points below expected

13 points · 17.85 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Valencia Promoted	18	12	2	4	26	37	25	+12	18.55	+7.45
2	Atletico Madrid	18	11	1	6	23	47	31	+16	19.82	+3.18
3	Sevilla	18	10	3	5	23	42	26	+16	19.34	+3.66
4	Sporting Gijon	18	8	2	8	18	48	32	+16	17.92	+0.08
5	Castellon	18	6	6	6	18	27	31	-4	18.39	-0.39
6	Real Betis	18	7	3	8	17	25	36	-11	16.78	+0.22
7	Real Oviedo	18	4	6	8	14	39	41	-2	18.14	-4.14
8	Deportivo La Coruna	18	6	2	10	14	32	43	-11	17.41	-3.41
9	Real Murcia	18	6	2	10	14	29	46	-17	15.79	-1.79
10	Iberia Relegated	18	5	3	10	13	23	38	-15	17.85	-4.85

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Atletico Madrid	1612	23	19.82	+3.18	88.0%	7	15	18	20	22	25	31
Sevilla	1604	23	19.34	+3.66	90.6%	5	14	17	19	21	25	31
Valencia	1586	26	18.55	+7.45	99.4%	7	13	16	19	21	24	32
Sporting Gijon	1553	18	17.92	+0.08	57.3%	6	13	16	18	20	23	30
Castellon	1552	18	18.39	-0.39	51.4%	5	13	16	18	20	24	31
Real Oviedo	1537	14	18.14	-4.14	11.8%	6	13	16	18	20	23	31
Iberia	1509	13	17.85	-4.85	8.6%	7	13	16	18	20	23	29
Deportivo La Coruna	1504	14	17.41	-3.41	17.8%	7	12	15	17	20	23	29
Real Betis	1482	17	16.78	+0.22	58.9%	6	12	15	17	19	22	29
Real Murcia	1481	14	15.79	-1.79	34.3%	4	11	14	16	18	21	28

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AM	CAS	DLC	IBE	RB	RM	RO	SEV	SG	VAL
Atletico Madrid	—	1-0-1 3.12	1-0-1 3.17	1-0-1 3.22	2-0-0 3.27	2-0-0 3.33	1-0-1 3.04	1-0-1 2.92	1-1-0 3.10	1-0-1 3.04
Castellon	1-0-1 2.56	—	1-1-0 3.00	1-1-0 2.88	0-1-1 3.09	1-0-1 3.20	1-1-0 2.90	0-1-1 2.68	1-0-1 2.90	0-1-1 2.86
Deportivo La Coruna	1-0-1 2.51	0-1-1 2.68	—	1-0-1 2.72	1-0-1 2.89	1-0-1 3.09	0-1-1 2.74	1-0-1 2.45	1-0-1 2.79	0-0-2 2.73
Iberia	1-0-1 2.46	0-1-1 2.79	1-0-1 2.96	—	1-0-1 3.07	0-1-1 3.20	1-0-1 2.77	0-0-2 2.65	0-1-1 2.85	1-0-1 2.65
Real Betis	0-0-2 2.42	1-1-0 2.59	1-0-1 2.79	1-0-1 2.61	—	2-0-0 2.93	1-1-0 2.63	0-1-1 2.45	1-0-1 2.70	0-0-2 2.59
Real Murcia	0-0-2 2.36	1-0-1 2.48	1-0-1 2.59	1-1-0 2.48	0-0-2 2.75	—	1-1-0 2.51	1-0-1 2.35	1-0-1 2.41	0-0-2 2.36
Real Oviedo	1-0-1 2.64	0-1-1 2.78	1-1-0 2.94	1-0-1 2.91	0-1-1 3.04	0-1-1 3.17	—	0-1-1 2.70	1-0-1 2.90	0-1-1 2.77
Sevilla	1-0-1 2.76	1-1-0 3.00	1-0-1 3.23	2-0-0 3.03	1-1-0 3.23	1-0-1 3.33	1-1-0 2.98	—	1-0-1 3.09	1-0-1 2.93
Sporting Gijon	0-1-1 2.58	1-0-1 2.78	1-0-1 2.89	1-1-0 2.82	1-0-1 2.98	1-0-1 3.27	1-0-1 2.78	1-0-1 2.59	—	1-0-1 2.76
Valencia	1-0-1 2.63	1-1-0 2.82	2-0-0 2.95	1-0-1 3.02	2-0-0 3.09	2-0-0 3.32	1-1-0 2.91	1-0-1 2.75	1-0-1 2.92	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.29	+2.7
Allowed	0.80	-5.8
Differential	0.67	+2.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.22%	3.89%	4.44%	5.00%	1.67%	3.33%	20.56%
1	3.89%	6.67%	8.33%	2.22%	4.44%	1.67%	27.22%
2	4.44%	8.33%	3.33%	2.22%	—	2.22%	20.56%
3	5.00%	2.22%	2.22%	3.33%	1.11%	0.56%	14.44%
4	1.67%	4.44%	—	1.11%	1.11%	0.56%	8.89%
5+	3.33%	1.67%	2.22%	0.56%	0.56%	—	8.33%
Total	20.56%	27.22%	20.56%	14.44%	8.89%	8.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.94	1.94	+0.00
SD	1.67	1.67	2.63
CV	0.86	0.86	—
Max	9	9	+9
Min	0	0	-9

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
3	16.67%	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	33.33%
4	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	27.78%	27.78%	16.67%	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.61	1.72	+0.89
SD	1.54	1.64	2.56
CV	0.59	0.95	—
Max	6	5	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
1	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	44.44%
2	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
3	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	33.33%	16.67%	22.22%	—	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.72	-0.22
SD	1.20	1.71	2.10
CV	0.80	0.99	—
Max	4	7	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	27.78%
1	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	—	11.11%	—	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
Total	11.11%	22.22%	22.22%	11.11%	27.78%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.78	2.39	-0.61
SD	1.73	1.54	2.20
CV	0.98	0.64	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	33.33%
1	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	33.33%
2	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	27.78%	11.11%	22.22%	11.11%	16.67%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	2.11	-0.83
SD	1.36	1.78	2.46
CV	1.07	0.84	—
Max	5	5	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	33.33%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
2	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	33.33%	22.22%	11.11%	—	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.39	2.00	-0.61
SD	1.24	1.78	2.38
CV	0.90	0.89	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	22.22%
1	—	11.11%	16.67%	—	5.56%	5.56%	38.89%
2	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	33.33%	27.78%	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.61	2.56	-0.94
SD	1.42	2.23	3.04
CV	0.88	0.87	—
Max	4	9	+4
Min	0	0	-9

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
1	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
2	—	—	11.11%	16.67%	—	5.56%	33.33%
3	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
Total	—	33.33%	22.22%	33.33%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.17	2.28	-0.11
SD	1.42	1.18	1.71
CV	0.66	0.52	—
Max	5	5	+3
Min	0	1	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
1	5.56%	—	16.67%	—	—	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
3	11.11%	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	33.33%
4	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	33.33%	22.22%	27.78%	11.11%	—	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.33	1.44	+0.89
SD	1.64	1.54	2.56
CV	0.70	1.07	—
Max	5	6	+5
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
1	—	—	—	5.56%	16.67%	—	22.22%
2	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
Total	22.22%	27.78%	16.67%	16.67%	16.67%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.67	1.78	+0.89
SD	2.68	1.44	3.64
CV	1.00	0.81	—
Max	9	4	+9
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	16.67%
1	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
2	16.67%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	33.33%
3	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	38.89%	27.78%	11.11%	11.11%	—	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.06	1.39	+0.67
SD	1.66	1.65	2.79
CV	0.81	1.19	—
Max	6	5	+6
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Valencia	26	18.55	+7.45
2	Sevilla	23	19.34	+3.66
3	Atletico Madrid	23	19.82	+3.18
4	Real Betis	17	16.78	+0.22
5	Sporting Gijon	18	17.92	+0.08

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Iberia	13	17.85	-4.85
2	Real Oviedo	14	18.14	-4.14
3	Deportivo La Coruna	14	17.41	-3.41
4	Real Murcia	14	15.79	-1.79
5	Castellon	18	18.39	-0.39

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Real Betis	5	Dec 7 – Jan 4	1 in 201
2	Valencia	6	Feb 22 – Mar 29	1 in 101
3	Atletico Madrid	4	Jan 4 – Jan 25	1 in 37
4	Real Murcia	3	Feb 8 – Mar 1	1 in 33
5	Sevilla	3	Mar 15 – Mar 29	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Real Murcia	4	Dec 28 – Jan 18	1 in 49
2	Iberia	3	Dec 28 – Jan 11	1 in 12
3	Real Betis	3	Mar 15 – Mar 29	1 in 8
4	Atletico Madrid	2	Feb 22 – Mar 1	1 in 2
5	Castellon	2	Mar 8 – Mar 15	1 in 2

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Real Betis	6	Dec 7 – Jan 11	1 in 79
2	Castellon	5	Dec 21 – Jan 18	1 in 14
3	Valencia	6	Feb 22 – Mar 29	1 in 14
4	Sevilla	5	Dec 28 – Jan 25	1 in 13
5	Atletico Madrid	4	Jan 4 – Jan 25	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Real Murcia	9	Dec 7 – Feb 1	1 in 96
2	Real Betis	7	Jan 11 – Mar 1	1 in 37
3	Real Oviedo	4	Dec 14 – Jan 4	1 in 16
4	Castellon	3	Dec 14 – Dec 28	1 in 15
5	Iberia	4	Dec 21 – Jan 11	1 in 13

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Valencia	12.71%	12.44%	12.03%	11.67%	10.84%	9.93%	9.54%	8.09%	7.52%	5.23%
Atletico Madrid	23.55%	16.95%	14.06%	10.48%	9.41%	7.80%	6.33%	5.24%	3.83%	2.35%
Sevilla	19.03%	15.85%	12.70%	12.08%	9.93%	8.70%	7.48%	6.17%	4.75%	3.31%
Sporting Gijon	9.70%	11.17%	10.83%	10.67%	10.61%	10.36%	10.23%	9.91%	9.12%	7.40%
Castellon	9.06%	10.92%	11.14%	11.37%	11.11%	11.41%	10.42%	9.72%	8.23%	6.62%
Real Betis	3.41%	5.06%	6.52%	8.28%	9.65%	10.18%	11.55%	13.85%	15.07%	16.43%
Real Oviedo	8.91%	9.70%	10.94%	10.49%	11.18%	11.13%	11.16%	10.15%	9.20%	7.14%
Deportivo La Coruna	5.13%	6.42%	8.54%	9.66%	10.15%	11.09%	11.72%	11.95%	12.97%	12.37%
Real Murcia	1.95%	3.17%	4.15%	5.48%	6.65%	8.58%	10.48%	13.21%	18.03%	28.30%
Iberia	6.55%	8.32%	9.09%	9.82%	10.47%	10.82%	11.09%	11.71%	11.28%	10.85%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+56.67%

Strong Edge

70.00%16.67%13.33%

Elo Value

Home Edge

132 Elo

0.008 goals per Elo point

0223.26400

Scoring Tilt

Expected +1.70 goals

+1.66 goals

Strong Home

-2+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

7.0

Wide Open

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

13%

Valencia, 3rd of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.17/gm

Tight Race

00.100.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.53 * Some Luck: 2.53 to 3.79 * Lucky: 3.79 to 5.06 * Wild Swing: 5.06 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.12 * Close: 2.12 to 3.17 * Off: 3.17 to 4.23 * Way Off: 4.23 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.72 * A Surprise: 0.72 to 1.15 * Several Surprises: 1.15 to 1.58 * Many Surprises: 1.58 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.67 points

Some Luck

03.168

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.60

Pinpoint

02.656

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

99.38%

Valencia

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

8.56%

Iberia

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

1 of 1

A Surprise

00.71

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.13

Even

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.08

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

60%

Slight Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

68%

Even

50%71%100%

Close Games

Expected

49%

Frequent

0%40%100%

Blowouts

Expected

37%

Very Frequent

0%36%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.45

Highly Predictable

00.482

Matchup Imbalance

0.62

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.34

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.35

Some Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

13%

Chalky

0%16%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

13%

Solid Favorites

0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.11 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.11 to 0.16 * Above Noise: 0.16 to 0.22 * Well Above Noise: 0.22 and up.

Probability calibration

0.37

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.58

Very Underconfident

0.2425641.001.75744

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.052

Well Within Noise

00.1090.25

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Direct promotion	Same level	Direct relegation
Atletico Madrid	23.55%	74.10%	2.35%
Sevilla	19.03%	77.66%	3.31%
Valencia	12.71%	82.06%	5.23%
Castellon	9.06%	84.32%	6.62%
Sporting Gijon	9.70%	82.90%	7.40%
Real Oviedo	8.91%	83.95%	7.14%
Iberia	6.55%	82.60%	10.85%
Deportivo La Coruna	5.13%	82.50%	12.37%
Real Betis	3.41%	80.16%	16.43%
Real Murcia	1.95%	69.75%	28.30%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1930-12-07	Sporting Gijon	W 1-0	1529	1525	68.9%	16.1%	15.0%	+2.3	2
1930-12-07	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 0-1	1525	1529	15.0%	16.1%	68.9%	-2.3	0
1930-12-07	Iberia	W 2-1	1495	1554	63.3%	16.3%	20.4%	+2.9	2
1930-12-07	@ Real Betis	L 1-2	1554	1495	20.4%	16.3%	63.3%	-2.9	0
1930-12-07	Castellon	L 1-2	1507	1565	63.5%	16.3%	20.2%	-7.9	0
1930-12-07	@ Real Murcia	W 2-1	1565	1507	20.2%	16.3%	63.5%	+7.9	2
1930-12-07	Atletico Madrid	W 4-1	1550	1578	66.3%	16.2%	17.5%	+6.1	2
1930-12-07	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-4	1578	1550	17.5%	16.2%	66.3%	-6.1	0
1930-12-07	Sevilla	W 2-1	1548	1571	66.7%	16.2%	17.1%	+2.4	2
1930-12-07	@ Valencia	L 1-2	1571	1548	17.1%	16.2%	66.7%	-2.4	0
1930-12-14	Valencia	W 3-0	1571	1551	70.2%	16.0%	13.8%	+5.8	2
1930-12-14	@ Atletico Madrid	L 0-3	1551	1571	13.8%	16.0%	70.2%	-5.8	2
1930-12-14	Real Betis	L 1-2	1573	1497	73.8%	15.6%	10.5%	-9.2	2
1930-12-14	@ Castellon	W 2-1	1497	1573	10.5%	15.6%	73.8%	+9.2	4
1930-12-14	Deportivo La Coruna	W 2-0	1552	1531	70.2%	16.0%	13.9%	+4.0	2
1930-12-14	@ Iberia	L 0-2	1531	1552	13.9%	16.0%	70.2%	-4.0	2
1930-12-14	Real Murcia	W 4-1	1568	1499	73.5%	15.7%	10.9%	+3.9	2
1930-12-14	@ Sevilla	L 1-4	1499	1568	10.9%	15.7%	73.5%	-3.9	0
1930-12-14	Real Oviedo	W 2-1	1523	1556	65.8%	16.2%	18.0%	+2.5	2
1930-12-14	@ Sporting Gijon	L 1-2	1556	1523	18.0%	16.2%	65.8%	-2.6	2
1930-12-21	Sevilla	W 2-0	1577	1572	69.0%	16.1%	14.9%	+4.3	4
1930-12-21	@ Atletico Madrid	L 0-2	1572	1577	14.9%	16.1%	69.0%	-4.3	2
1930-12-21	Castellon	D 0-0	1556	1563	68.0%	16.1%	15.9%	-1.9	3
1930-12-21	@ Iberia	D 0-0	1563	1556	15.9%	16.1%	68.0%	+1.9	3
1930-12-21	Sporting Gijon	W 2-0	1507	1525	67.0%	16.2%	16.8%	+4.8	6
1930-12-21	@ Real Betis	L 0-2	1525	1507	16.8%	16.2%	67.0%	-4.8	2
1930-12-21	Real Murcia	D 1-1	1554	1495	72.8%	15.8%	11.5%	-2.0	3
1930-12-21	@ Real Oviedo	D 1-1	1495	1554	11.5%	15.8%	72.8%	+2.0	1
1930-12-21	Deportivo La Coruna	W 3-0	1545	1527	70.0%	16.0%	14.0%	+5.9	4
1930-12-21	@ Valencia	L 0-3	1527	1545	14.0%	16.0%	70.0%	-5.9	2
1930-12-28	Valencia	D 1-1	1565	1551	69.7%	16.0%	14.3%	-1.8	4
1930-12-28	@ Castellon	D 1-1	1551	1565	14.3%	16.0%	69.7%	+1.8	5
1930-12-28	Atletico Madrid	W 5-2	1521	1582	63.2%	16.4%	20.4%	+6.1	4
1930-12-28	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 2-5	1582	1521	20.4%	16.4%	63.2%	-6.1	4
1930-12-28	Real Betis	L 1-2	1497	1511	67.5%	16.2%	16.4%	-8.4	1
1930-12-28	@ Real Murcia	W 2-1	1511	1497	16.4%	16.2%	67.5%	+8.4	8
1930-12-28	Real Oviedo	W 3-0	1568	1552	69.8%	16.0%	14.1%	+5.9	4
1930-12-28	@ Sevilla	L 0-3	1552	1568	14.1%	16.0%	69.8%	-5.9	3
1930-12-28	Iberia	W 5-1	1521	1554	65.8%	16.2%	17.9%	+8.1	4
1930-12-28	@ Sporting Gijon	L 1-5	1554	1521	17.9%	16.2%	65.8%	-8.1	3
1931-01-04	Sporting Gijon	W 1-0	1564	1529	71.2%	15.9%	12.9%	+2.0	6
1931-01-04	@ Castellon	L 0-1	1529	1564	12.9%	15.9%	71.2%	-2.0	4
1931-01-04	Sevilla	L 0-2	1546	1574	66.2%	16.2%	17.5%	-16.4	3
1931-01-04	@ Iberia	W 2-0	1574	1546	17.5%	16.2%	66.2%	+16.4	6
1931-01-04	Deportivo La Coruna	W 4-3	1520	1527	68.0%	16.1%	15.9%	+2.1	10
1931-01-04	@ Real Betis	L 3-4	1527	1520	15.9%	16.1%	68.0%	-2.1	4
1931-01-04	Atletico Madrid	L 0-3	1489	1575	60.6%	16.4%	23.0%	-21.8	1
1931-01-04	@ Real Murcia	W 3-0	1575	1489	23.0%	16.4%	60.6%	+21.8	6
1931-01-04	Valencia	D 1-1	1546	1553	68.0%	16.1%	15.8%	-1.7	4
1931-01-04	@ Real Oviedo	D 1-1	1553	1546	15.8%	16.1%	68.0%	+1.7	6
1931-01-11	Sporting Gijon	W 4-1	1597	1527	73.6%	15.7%	10.8%	+3.9	8
1931-01-11	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-4	1527	1597	10.8%	15.7%	73.6%	-3.9	4
1931-01-11	Castellon	D 1-1	1525	1566	65.1%	16.3%	18.6%	-1.5	5
1931-01-11	@ Deportivo La Coruna	D 1-1	1566	1525	18.6%	16.3%	65.1%	+1.5	7
1931-01-11	Iberia	W 5-3	1544	1529	69.8%	16.0%	14.2%	+3.0	6
1931-01-11	@ Real Oviedo	L 3-5	1529	1544	14.2%	16.0%	69.8%	-3.0	3
1931-01-11	Real Betis	D 0-0	1590	1522	73.4%	15.7%	10.9%	-2.3	7
1931-01-11	@ Sevilla	D 0-0	1522	1590	10.9%	15.7%	73.4%	+2.3	11
1931-01-11	Real Murcia	W 2-0	1554	1467	74.6%	15.6%	9.9%	+2.9	8
1931-01-11	@ Valencia	L 0-2	1467	1554	9.9%	15.6%	74.6%	-2.9	1
1931-01-18	Sevilla	D 3-3	1567	1588	66.9%	16.2%	16.9%	-1.0	8
1931-01-18	@ Castellon	D 3-3	1588	1567	16.9%	16.2%	66.9%	+1.0	8
1931-01-18	Real Oviedo	D 4-4	1524	1547	66.6%	16.2%	17.1%	-0.9	6
1931-01-18	@ Deportivo La Coruna	D 4-4	1547	1524	17.1%	16.2%	66.6%	+0.9	7
1931-01-18	Valencia	W 5-0	1526	1557	66.0%	16.2%	17.8%	+11.8	5
1931-01-18	@ Iberia	L 0-5	1557	1526	17.8%	16.2%	66.0%	-11.8	8
1931-01-18	Atletico Madrid	L 2-3	1524	1601	61.6%	16.4%	22.0%	-7.2	11
1931-01-18	@ Real Betis	W 3-2	1601	1524	22.0%	16.4%	61.6%	+7.2	10
1931-01-18	Real Murcia	W 9-0	1523	1464	72.8%	15.8%	11.5%	+13.6	6
1931-01-18	@ Sporting Gijon	L 0-9	1464	1523	11.5%	15.8%	72.8%	-13.6	1
1931-01-25	Castellon	W 3-0	1608	1566	71.7%	15.9%	12.4%	+5.2	12
1931-01-25	@ Atletico Madrid	L 0-3	1566	1608	12.4%	15.9%	71.7%	-5.2	8
1931-01-25	Iberia	D 1-1	1451	1538	60.5%	16.4%	23.1%	-1.2	2
1931-01-25	@ Real Murcia	D 1-1	1538	1451	23.1%	16.4%	60.5%	+1.2	6
1931-01-25	Real Betis	D 2-2	1548	1517	70.9%	15.9%	13.1%	-1.4	8
1931-01-25	@ Real Oviedo	D 2-2	1517	1548	13.1%	15.9%	70.9%	+1.4	12
1931-01-25	Deportivo La Coruna	W 5-2	1589	1523	73.3%	15.7%	11.0%	+3.4	10
1931-01-25	@ Sevilla	L 2-5	1523	1589	11.0%	15.7%	73.3%	-3.4	6
1931-01-25	Sporting Gijon	W 3-0	1545	1537	69.3%	16.1%	14.7%	+6.1	10
1931-01-25	@ Valencia	L 0-3	1537	1545	14.7%	16.1%	69.3%	-6.1	6
1931-02-01	Real Oviedo	W 1-0	1561	1547	69.7%	16.0%	14.3%	+2.2	10
1931-02-01	@ Castellon	L 0-1	1547	1561	14.3%	16.0%	69.7%	-2.2	8
1931-02-01	Real Murcia	W 5-4	1519	1449	73.5%	15.7%	10.8%	+1.4	8
1931-02-01	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 4-5	1449	1519	10.8%	15.7%	73.5%	-1.4	2
1931-02-01	Atletico Madrid	W 1-0	1539	1614	61.9%	16.4%	21.8%	+3.2	8
1931-02-01	@ Iberia	L 0-1	1614	1539	21.8%	16.4%	61.9%	-3.2	12
1931-02-01	Valencia	L 0-1	1518	1552	65.8%	16.2%	18.0%	-8.6	12
1931-02-01	@ Real Betis	W 1-0	1552	1518	18.0%	16.2%	65.8%	+8.7	12
1931-02-01	Sevilla	W 6-0	1530	1592	63.1%	16.4%	20.6%	+16.1	8
1931-02-01	@ Sporting Gijon	L 0-6	1592	1530	20.6%	16.4%	63.1%	-16.1	10
1931-02-08	Real Oviedo	W 3-2	1610	1544	73.3%	15.7%	11.0%	+1.5	14
1931-02-08	@ Atletico Madrid	L 2-3	1544	1610	11.0%	15.7%	73.3%	-1.5	8
1931-02-08	Real Murcia	L 1-3	1563	1448	76.1%	15.3%	8.6%	-16.4	10
1931-02-08	@ Castellon	W 3-1	1448	1563	8.6%	15.3%	76.1%	+16.4	4
1931-02-08	Real Betis	W 2-0	1542	1510	71.1%	15.9%	13.0%	+3.8	10
1931-02-08	@ Iberia	L 0-2	1510	1542	13.0%	15.9%	71.1%	-3.8	12
1931-02-08	Valencia	W 5-0	1576	1560	69.8%	16.0%	14.1%	+9.6	12
1931-02-08	@ Sevilla	L 0-5	1560	1576	14.1%	16.0%	69.8%	-9.6	12
1931-02-08	Deportivo La Coruna	W 3-0	1546	1521	70.5%	16.0%	13.5%	+5.7	10
1931-02-08	@ Sporting Gijon	L 0-3	1521	1546	13.5%	16.0%	70.5%	-5.7	8
1931-02-22	Iberia	W 4-0	1515	1546	66.0%	16.2%	17.8%	+9.6	10
1931-02-22	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 0-4	1546	1515	17.8%	16.2%	66.0%	-9.6	10
1931-02-22	Castellon	D 1-1	1506	1547	65.1%	16.3%	18.6%	-1.5	13
1931-02-22	@ Real Betis	D 1-1	1547	1506	18.6%	16.3%	65.1%	+1.5	11
1931-02-22	Sevilla	W 2-1	1464	1586	56.7%	16.5%	26.8%	+3.7	6
1931-02-22	@ Real Murcia	L 1-2	1586	1464	26.8%	16.5%	56.7%	-3.7	12
1931-02-22	Sporting Gijon	W 3-1	1543	1552	67.8%	16.1%	16.0%	+4.0	10
1931-02-22	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-3	1552	1543	16.0%	16.1%	67.8%	-4.0	10
1931-02-22	Atletico Madrid	W 4-3	1551	1612	63.2%	16.4%	20.5%	+2.7	14
1931-02-22	@ Valencia	L 3-4	1612	1551	20.5%	16.4%	63.2%	-2.7	14
1931-03-01	Iberia	W 4-0	1548	1537	69.5%	16.0%	14.5%	+7.9	13
1931-03-01	@ Castellon	L 0-4	1537	1548	14.5%	16.0%	69.5%	-7.9	10
1931-03-01	Valencia	L 1-2	1525	1553	66.2%	16.2%	17.6%	-8.2	10
1931-03-01	@ Deportivo La Coruna	W 2-1	1553	1525	17.6%	16.2%	66.2%	+8.2	16
1931-03-01	Real Oviedo	W 3-2	1468	1547	61.4%	16.4%	22.2%	+3.0	8
1931-03-01	@ Real Murcia	L 2-3	1547	1468	22.2%	16.4%	61.4%	-2.9	10
1931-03-01	Atletico Madrid	W 3-1	1582	1609	66.3%	16.2%	17.4%	+4.3	14
1931-03-01	@ Sevilla	L 1-3	1609	1582	17.4%	16.2%	66.3%	-4.3	14
1931-03-01	Real Betis	W 5-0	1548	1504	71.8%	15.8%	12.3%	+8.4	12
1931-03-01	@ Sporting Gijon	L 0-5	1504	1548	12.3%	15.8%	71.8%	-8.4	13
1931-03-08	Deportivo La Coruna	W 1-0	1605	1517	74.6%	15.5%	9.8%	+1.5	16
1931-03-08	@ Atletico Madrid	L 0-1	1517	1605	9.8%	15.5%	74.6%	-1.5	10
1931-03-08	Sporting Gijon	D 3-3	1529	1557	66.3%	16.2%	17.5%	-1.0	11
1931-03-08	@ Iberia	D 3-3	1557	1529	17.5%	16.2%	66.3%	+1.0	13
1931-03-08	Real Murcia	W 3-0	1496	1471	70.5%	16.0%	13.5%	+5.7	15
1931-03-08	@ Real Betis	L 0-3	1471	1496	13.5%	16.0%	70.5%	-5.7	8
1931-03-08	Sevilla	D 3-3	1544	1586	64.9%	16.3%	18.8%	-0.9	11
1931-03-08	@ Real Oviedo	D 3-3	1586	1544	18.8%	16.3%	64.9%	+0.9	15
1931-03-08	Castellon	W 2-0	1562	1556	69.0%	16.1%	14.9%	+4.3	18
1931-03-08	@ Valencia	L 0-2	1556	1562	14.9%	16.1%	69.0%	-4.3	13
1931-03-15	Real Murcia	W 6-1	1606	1465	77.4%	15.1%	7.5%	+4.3	18
1931-03-15	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-6	1465	1606	7.5%	15.1%	77.4%	-4.3	8
1931-03-15	Real Betis	W 2-1	1515	1502	69.6%	16.0%	14.3%	+2.1	12
1931-03-15	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 1-2	1502	1515	14.3%	16.0%	69.6%	-2.1	15
1931-03-15	Iberia	W 3-0	1587	1528	72.9%	15.7%	11.4%	+4.8	17
1931-03-15	@ Sevilla	L 0-3	1528	1587	11.4%	15.7%	72.9%	-4.8	11
1931-03-15	Castellon	W 7-2	1558	1552	69.0%	16.1%	14.9%	+7.0	15
1931-03-15	@ Sporting Gijon	L 2-7	1552	1558	14.9%	16.1%	69.0%	-6.9	13
1931-03-15	Real Oviedo	W 5-2	1566	1543	70.3%	16.0%	13.7%	+4.2	20
1931-03-15	@ Valencia	L 2-5	1543	1566	13.7%	16.0%	70.3%	-4.2	11
1931-03-22	Deportivo La Coruna	W 2-1	1545	1517	70.7%	16.0%	13.4%	+1.9	15
1931-03-22	@ Castellon	L 1-2	1517	1545	13.4%	16.0%	70.7%	-1.9	12
1931-03-22	Real Oviedo	W 2-1	1523	1539	67.3%	16.2%	16.5%	+2.4	13
1931-03-22	@ Iberia	L 1-2	1539	1523	16.5%	16.2%	67.3%	-2.4	11
1931-03-22	Sevilla	L 0-1	1500	1592	59.9%	16.4%	23.6%	-7.9	15
1931-03-22	@ Real Betis	W 1-0	1592	1500	23.6%	16.4%	59.9%	+7.9	19
1931-03-22	Valencia	L 1-2	1461	1570	58.1%	16.5%	25.4%	-7.2	8
1931-03-22	@ Real Murcia	W 2-1	1570	1461	25.4%	16.5%	58.1%	+7.2	22
1931-03-22	Atletico Madrid	D 2-2	1564	1611	64.6%	16.3%	19.1%	-1.1	16
1931-03-22	@ Sporting Gijon	D 2-2	1611	1564	19.1%	16.3%	64.6%	+1.1	19
1931-03-29	Real Betis	W 5-1	1612	1492	76.3%	15.3%	8.4%	+3.9	21
1931-03-29	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-5	1492	1612	8.4%	15.3%	76.3%	-3.9	15
1931-03-29	Sporting Gijon	W 4-1	1454	1563	58.1%	16.5%	25.5%	+8.6	10
1931-03-29	@ Real Murcia	L 1-4	1563	1454	25.5%	16.5%	58.1%	-8.6	16
1931-03-29	Deportivo La Coruna	W 4-1	1536	1515	70.2%	16.0%	13.8%	+4.9	13
1931-03-29	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-4	1515	1536	13.8%	16.0%	70.2%	-4.9	12
1931-03-29	Castellon	W 3-1	1600	1547	72.5%	15.8%	11.8%	+3.0	21
1931-03-29	@ Sevilla	L 1-3	1547	1600	11.8%	15.8%	72.5%	-3.0	15
1931-03-29	Iberia	W 2-0	1577	1525	72.4%	15.8%	11.8%	+3.5	24
1931-03-29	@ Valencia	L 0-2	1525	1577	11.8%	15.8%	72.4%	-3.4	13
1931-04-05	Atletico Madrid	W 4-1	1544	1616	62.1%	16.4%	21.5%	+7.4	17
1931-04-05	@ Castellon	L 1-4	1616	1544	21.5%	16.4%	62.1%	-7.4	21
1931-04-05	Sevilla	W 2-1	1510	1603	59.9%	16.4%	23.6%	+3.3	14
1931-04-05	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 1-2	1603	1510	23.6%	16.4%	59.9%	-3.3	21
1931-04-05	Real Murcia	L 1-2	1522	1462	72.9%	15.7%	11.4%	-9.0	13
1931-04-05	@ Iberia	W 2-1	1462	1522	11.4%	15.7%	72.9%	+9.0	12
1931-04-05	Real Oviedo	W 3-2	1488	1541	63.9%	16.3%	19.8%	+2.6	17
1931-04-05	@ Real Betis	L 2-3	1541	1488	19.8%	16.3%	63.9%	-2.6	13
1931-04-05	Valencia	W 2-1	1555	1581	66.4%	16.2%	17.3%	+2.5	18
1931-04-05	@ Sporting Gijon	L 1-2	1581	1555	17.3%	16.2%	66.4%	-2.5	24
1931-04-12	Iberia	W 4-1	1608	1513	75.0%	15.5%	9.5%	+3.4	23
1931-04-12	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-4	1513	1608	9.5%	15.5%	75.0%	-3.4	13
1931-04-12	Deportivo La Coruna	W 4-0	1471	1514	65.0%	16.3%	18.7%	+10.1	14
1931-04-12	@ Real Murcia	L 0-4	1514	1471	18.7%	16.3%	65.0%	-10.1	14
1931-04-12	Castellon	D 2-2	1539	1551	67.6%	16.2%	16.3%	-1.2	14
1931-04-12	@ Real Oviedo	D 2-2	1551	1539	16.3%	16.2%	67.6%	+1.2	18
1931-04-12	Sporting Gijon	W 4-1	1600	1557	71.7%	15.8%	12.4%	+4.4	23
1931-04-12	@ Sevilla	L 1-4	1557	1600	12.4%	15.8%	71.7%	-4.4	18
1931-04-12	Real Betis	W 6-0	1578	1490	74.6%	15.5%	9.9%	+8.0	26
1931-04-12	@ Valencia	L 0-6	1490	1578	9.9%	15.5%	74.6%	-8.0	17

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1931-02-08	8.60%	Real Murcia	1448	3	@ Castellon	1563	1
2	1930-12-14	10.53%	Real Betis	1497	2	@ Castellon	1573	1
3	1931-04-05	11.40%	Real Murcia	1462	2	@ Iberia	1522	1
4	1930-12-28	16.39%	Real Betis	1511	2	@ Real Murcia	1497	1
5	1931-01-04	17.54%	Sevilla	1574	2	@ Iberia	1546	0
6	1931-03-01	17.57%	Valencia	1553	2	@ Deportivo La Coruna	1525	1
7	1931-02-01	17.97%	Valencia	1552	1	@ Real Betis	1518	0
8	1930-12-07	20.16%	Castellon	1565	2	@ Real Murcia	1507	1
9	1931-01-18	22.03%	Atletico Madrid	1601	3	@ Real Betis	1524	2
10	1931-01-04	23.00%	Atletico Madrid	1575	3	@ Real Murcia	1489	0
11	1931-03-22	23.64%	Sevilla	1592	1	@ Real Betis	1500	0
12	1931-03-22	25.42%	Valencia	1570	2	@ Real Murcia	1461	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1931-01-04	21.80	Atletico Madrid	3	1575	23.00%	@ Real Murcia	0	1489	60.58%	16.42%
2	1931-01-04	16.41	Sevilla	2	1574	17.54%	@ Iberia	0	1546	66.24%	16.23%
3	1931-02-08	16.36	Real Murcia	3	1448	8.60%	@ Castellon	1	1563	76.08%	15.33%
4	1931-02-01	16.06	@ Sporting Gijon	6	1530	63.09%	Sevilla	0	1592	20.56%	16.35%
5	1931-01-18	13.64	@ Sporting Gijon	9	1523	72.80%	Real Murcia	0	1464	11.45%	15.75%
6	1931-01-18	11.84	@ Iberia	5	1526	65.98%	Valencia	0	1557	17.78%	16.24%
7	1931-04-12	10.08	@ Real Murcia	4	1471	64.98%	Deportivo La Coruna	0	1514	18.74%	16.28%
8	1931-02-22	9.60	@ Deportivo La Coruna	4	1515	65.98%	Iberia	0	1546	17.78%	16.24%
9	1931-02-08	9.56	@ Sevilla	5	1576	69.84%	Valencia	0	1560	14.15%	16.01%
10	1930-12-14	9.16	Real Betis	2	1497	10.53%	@ Castellon	1	1573	73.84%	15.63%
11	1931-04-05	9.05	Real Murcia	2	1462	11.40%	@ Iberia	1	1522	72.86%	15.74%
12	1931-02-01	8.65	Valencia	1	1552	17.97%	@ Real Betis	0	1518	65.78%	16.25%
13	1931-03-29	8.59	@ Real Murcia	4	1454	58.05%	Sporting Gijon	1	1563	25.48%	16.46%
14	1931-03-01	8.39	@ Sporting Gijon	5	1548	71.82%	Real Betis	0	1504	12.33%	15.85%
15	1930-12-28	8.36	Real Betis	2	1511	16.39%	@ Real Murcia	1	1497	67.45%	16.16%
16	1931-03-01	8.20	Valencia	2	1553	17.57%	@ Deportivo La Coruna	1	1525	66.21%	16.23%
17	1930-12-28	8.07	@ Sporting Gijon	5	1521	65.80%	Iberia	1	1554	17.95%	16.25%
18	1931-04-12	8.04	@ Valencia	6	1578	74.57%	Real Betis	0	1490	9.88%	15.54%
19	1931-03-01	7.93	@ Castellon	4	1548	69.49%	Iberia	0	1537	14.47%	16.04%
20	1931-03-22	7.88	Sevilla	1	1592	23.64%	@ Real Betis	0	1500	59.93%	16.43%
21	1930-12-07	7.87	Castellon	2	1565	20.16%	@ Real Murcia	1	1507	63.50%	16.34%
22	1931-04-05	7.38	@ Castellon	4	1544	62.09%	Atletico Madrid	1	1616	21.53%	16.38%
23	1931-01-18	7.24	Atletico Madrid	3	1601	22.03%	@ Real Betis	2	1524	61.58%	16.39%
24	1931-03-22	7.21	Valencia	2	1570	25.42%	@ Real Murcia	1	1461	58.12%	16.46%
25	1931-03-15	6.95	@ Sporting Gijon	7	1558	69.05%	Castellon	2	1552	14.88%	16.07%