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1929-30 Segunda División Season

90 games

Final

Promoted

Alaves

22 pts

Relegated

Leonesa

14 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Sporting Gijon

2.13 points above expected

21 points · 18.87 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Leonesa

3.10 points below expected

14 points · 17.10 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Alaves Promoted 18 9 4 5 22 44 19 +25 19.96 +2.04
2 Iberia 18 6 9 3 21 26 22 +4 19.50 +1.50
3 Sporting Gijon 18 9 3 6 21 29 28 +1 18.87 +2.13
4 Sevilla 18 9 2 7 20 41 26 +15 19.60 +0.40
5 Valencia 18 7 4 7 18 40 43 -3 17.99 +0.01
6 Real Oviedo 18 8 2 8 18 37 44 -7 16.29 +1.71
7 Deportivo La Coruna 18 6 5 7 17 33 37 -4 17.14 -0.14
8 Real Murcia 18 6 3 9 15 40 50 -10 17.98 -2.98
9 Real Betis 18 6 2 10 14 29 39 -10 15.58 -1.58
10 Leonesa Relegated 18 5 4 9 14 30 41 -11 17.10 -3.10

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Alaves 1604 22 19.96 +2.04 78.3% 9 15 18 20 22 25 31
Sevilla 1547 20 19.60 +0.40 60.6% 7 14 17 20 22 25 31
Iberia 1512 21 19.50 +1.50 73.1% 8 14 17 20 22 25 32
Real Oviedo 1503 18 16.29 +1.71 75.2% 5 11 14 16 18 22 28
Valencia 1499 18 17.99 +0.01 56.1% 6 13 16 18 20 23 31
Deportivo La Coruna 1457 17 17.14 -0.14 54.3% 2 12 15 17 19 23 29
Sporting Gijon 1450 21 18.87 +2.13 78.5% 8 13 17 19 21 24 30
Real Murcia 1411 15 17.98 -2.98 21.4% 6 13 16 18 20 23 30
Real Betis 1384 14 15.58 -1.58 36.5% 4 10 14 16 18 21 26
Leonesa 1365 14 17.10 -3.10 21.0% 5 12 15 17 19 22 30

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ALA DLC IBE LEO RB RM RO SEV SG VAL
Alaves —
1-0-1
3.22
0-1-1
3.06
1-1-0
3.49
1-0-1
3.78
1-1-0
2.95
2-0-0
3.34
1-0-1
2.93
1-0-1
2.97
1-1-0
2.89
Deportivo La Coruna
1-0-1
2.47
 —
1-1-0
2.37
1-1-0
2.89
1-0-1
3.19
0-0-2
2.93
1-0-1
2.95
0-1-1
2.49
0-1-1
2.54
1-1-0
2.62
Iberia
1-1-0
2.63
0-1-1
3.33
 —
1-1-0
3.33
1-1-0
3.37
1-1-0
3.05
1-1-0
3.07
1-1-0
2.74
0-1-1
3.07
0-1-1
3.23
Leonesa
0-1-1
2.21
0-1-1
2.80
0-1-1
2.36
 —
0-1-1
2.99
2-0-0
2.70
1-0-1
3.02
1-0-1
2.81
1-0-1
2.37
0-0-2
2.97
Real Betis
1-0-1
1.92
1-0-1
2.51
0-1-1
2.32
1-1-0
2.71
 —
1-0-1
2.39
1-0-1
2.60
0-0-2
2.51
0-0-2
2.39
1-0-1
2.65
Real Murcia
0-1-1
2.74
2-0-0
2.77
0-1-1
2.65
0-0-2
3.00
1-0-1
3.30
 —
1-1-0
3.00
1-0-1
2.53
1-0-1
2.65
0-0-2
2.96
Real Oviedo
0-0-2
2.36
1-0-1
2.74
0-1-1
2.63
1-0-1
2.68
1-0-1
3.10
0-1-1
2.70
 —
1-0-1
2.15
2-0-0
2.41
2-0-0
2.32
Sevilla
1-0-1
2.76
1-1-0
3.21
0-1-1
2.96
1-0-1
2.89
2-0-0
3.19
1-0-1
3.16
1-0-1
3.55
 —
1-0-1
3.00
1-0-1
3.31
Sporting Gijon
1-0-1
2.73
1-1-0
3.16
1-1-0
2.63
1-0-1
3.33
2-0-0
3.31
1-0-1
3.05
0-0-2
3.28
1-0-1
2.69
 —
1-1-0
2.69
Valencia
0-1-1
2.81
0-1-1
3.08
1-1-0
2.47
2-0-0
2.72
1-0-1
3.05
2-0-0
2.73
0-0-2
3.38
1-0-1
2.39
0-1-1
3.01
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.04 +1.0
Allowed 0.67 -2.3
Differential 0.69 +2.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%2.22%3.89%2.78%3.89%2.78%21.11%
12.22%4.44%6.67%4.44%3.89%1.67%23.33%
23.89%6.67%8.89%2.22%1.11%1.67%24.44%
32.78%4.44%2.22%1.11%1.67%—12.22%
43.89%3.89%1.11%1.67%1.11%0.56%12.22%
5+2.78%1.67%1.67%—0.56%—6.67%
Total21.11%23.33%24.44%12.22%12.22%6.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.94 +0.00
SD 1.58 1.58 2.48
CV 0.81 0.81 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%——5.56%—16.67%
15.56%11.11%11.11%———27.78%
25.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+22.22%5.56%————27.78%
Total38.89%33.33%16.67%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.44 1.06 +1.39
SD 2.04 1.16 2.77
CV 0.83 1.10 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%—————16.67%
15.56%—5.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%33.33%
2——11.11%——5.56%16.67%
35.56%5.56%——5.56%—16.67%
45.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
5+———————
Total33.33%11.11%16.67%11.11%16.67%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 2.06 -0.22
SD 1.38 1.95 2.37
CV 0.75 0.95 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%—5.56%5.56%——27.78%
111.11%11.11%—5.56%——27.78%
25.56%5.56%16.67%———27.78%
3———5.56%——5.56%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+———————
Total33.33%27.78%22.22%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.22 +0.22
SD 1.29 1.11 1.56
CV 0.90 0.91 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—16.67%—5.56%27.78%
1—5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%22.22%
25.56%—16.67%———22.22%
3—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
411.11%——5.56%——16.67%
5+———————
Total16.67%16.67%22.22%27.78%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 2.28 -0.61
SD 1.46 1.67 2.64
CV 0.87 0.73 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%16.67%—5.56%—27.78%
1—5.56%11.11%—11.11%—27.78%
2—11.11%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+——11.11%———11.11%
Total—27.78%50.00%—22.22%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 2.17 -0.56
SD 1.58 1.10 2.06
CV 0.98 0.51 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 1 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%—11.11%5.56%22.22%
1—5.56%5.56%——5.56%16.67%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
35.56%5.56%——5.56%—16.67%
45.56%——5.56%5.56%5.56%22.22%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total11.11%16.67%22.22%11.11%22.22%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 2.78 -0.56
SD 1.77 1.86 2.81
CV 0.80 0.67 —
Max 6 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%——5.56%5.56%16.67%
1———11.11%11.11%—22.22%
2—11.11%5.56%——5.56%22.22%
35.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
4—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total11.11%27.78%16.67%11.11%22.22%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 2.44 -0.39
SD 1.47 1.76 2.83
CV 0.72 0.72 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%——5.56%16.67%
1——16.67%———16.67%
216.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—38.89%
3———————
411.11%5.56%————16.67%
5+—11.11%————11.11%
Total33.33%22.22%27.78%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 1.44 +0.83
SD 1.84 1.46 2.75
CV 0.81 1.01 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—5.56%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
1——5.56%11.11%——16.67%
25.56%22.22%5.56%———33.33%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total22.22%27.78%27.78%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.56 +0.06
SD 1.33 1.20 2.01
CV 0.83 0.77 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————5.56%5.56%11.11%
1—5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—22.22%
2—5.56%11.11%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
35.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+————5.56%—5.56%
Total11.11%22.22%22.22%16.67%16.67%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 2.39 -0.17
SD 1.52 1.58 2.50
CV 0.68 0.66 —
Max 6 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sporting Gijon 21 18.87 +2.13
2 Alaves 22 19.96 +2.04
3 Real Oviedo 18 16.29 +1.71
4 Iberia 21 19.50 +1.50
5 Sevilla 20 19.60 +0.40

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Leonesa 14 17.10 -3.10
2 Real Murcia 15 17.98 -2.98
3 Real Betis 14 15.58 -1.58
4 Deportivo La Coruna 17 17.14 -0.14
5 Valencia 18 17.99 +0.01

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valencia 2 Jan 12 – Jan 19 1 in 16
2 Real Oviedo 2 Dec 22 – Dec 29 1 in 14
3 Sporting Gijon 3 Dec 15 – Dec 29 1 in 9
4 Sevilla 2 Dec 8 – Dec 15 1 in 8
5 Alaves 3 Dec 22 – Jan 5 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Real Betis 5 Dec 8 – Jan 5 1 in 57
2 Leonesa 4 Feb 2 – Feb 23 1 in 42
3 Real Murcia 5 Jan 5 – Feb 2 1 in 40
4 Valencia 3 Dec 15 – Dec 29 1 in 16
5 Sevilla 2 Dec 22 – Dec 29 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Iberia 11 Dec 22 – Mar 5 1 in 142
2 Valencia 8 Jan 5 – Feb 23 1 in 122
3 Sporting Gijon 5 Feb 9 – Mar 9 1 in 15
4 Alaves 6 Dec 8 – Jan 12 1 in 14
5 Real Murcia 5 Dec 1 – Dec 29 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Leonesa 8 Feb 2 – Mar 23 1 in 59
2 Real Murcia 7 Jan 5 – Feb 16 1 in 30
3 Iberia 3 Jan 5 – Jan 19 1 in 18
4 Real Betis 5 Dec 8 – Jan 5 1 in 11
5 Alaves 3 Jan 12 – Jan 26 1 in 7

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Alaves24.24%17.75%14.04%11.43%8.91%7.58%6.37%4.29%3.28%2.11%
Iberia16.92%15.58%14.08%12.83%10.23%9.70%7.46%5.98%4.21%3.01%
Sporting Gijon12.33%13.40%12.42%12.20%11.65%10.07%8.85%8.19%6.12%4.77%
Sevilla20.06%16.28%14.12%11.33%10.17%8.36%6.90%5.43%4.59%2.76%
Valencia7.04%8.87%10.56%11.26%11.58%11.34%11.25%11.33%9.41%7.36%
Real Oviedo2.85%4.37%5.79%7.03%9.01%10.40%11.70%13.59%15.89%19.37%
Deportivo La Coruna4.55%7.15%7.69%9.49%10.73%11.27%11.73%12.41%12.77%12.21%
Real Murcia6.64%7.98%9.96%10.73%11.27%11.50%11.96%10.94%10.57%8.45%
Real Betis1.37%2.89%3.63%5.36%6.97%8.80%11.46%14.74%18.68%26.10%
Leonesa4.00%5.73%7.71%8.34%9.48%10.98%12.32%13.10%14.48%13.86%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+52.22%
Strong Edge
65.56%21.11%13.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge
147 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0201.30400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+1.50 goals
Strong Home
-2+1.36+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
6.4
Wide Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
24%
Alaves, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.110.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.59 * Some Luck: 2.59 to 3.88 * Lucky: 3.88 to 5.18 * Wild Swing: 5.18 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.98 * Close: 1.98 to 2.97 * Off: 2.97 to 3.96 * Way Off: 3.96 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.55 * A Surprise: 0.55 to 0.88 * Several Surprises: 0.88 to 1.21 * Many Surprises: 1.21 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
1.87 points
As Expected
03.248
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Pinpoint
02.475
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
78.46%
Sporting Gijon
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
20.95%
Leonesa
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 1
Several Surprises
00.61

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.09
Balanced
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
0.70
Coin-Flip Parity
01.003
Interquartile Edge
63%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
80%
Clear Edge
50%81%100%
Close Games
Expected
47%
Frequent
0%44%100%
Blowouts
Expected
33%
Very Frequent
0%32%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.52
Highly Predictable
00.482
Matchup Imbalance
0.59
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.34
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.56
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
13%
Chalky
0%18%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Solid Favorites
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.57
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.26
Overconfident
0.03580351.001.9642
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.084
Well Within Noise
00.1270.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Same level Direct relegation
Alaves 24.24% 70.37% 5.39%
Sevilla 20.06% 72.59% 7.35%
Iberia 16.92% 75.86% 7.22%
Sporting Gijon 12.33% 76.78% 10.89%
Valencia 7.04% 76.19% 16.77%
Real Murcia 6.64% 74.34% 19.02%
Deportivo La Coruna 4.55% 70.47% 24.98%
Leonesa 4.00% 67.66% 28.34%
Real Oviedo 2.85% 61.89% 35.26%
Real Betis 1.37% 53.85% 44.78%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1929-12-01 Real Oviedo W 4-1 1448 1466 67.2% 15.2% 17.6% +20.3 2
1929-12-01 @ Deportivo La Coruna L 1-4 1466 1448 17.6% 15.2% 67.2% -20.3 0
1929-12-01 Sevilla W 2-0 1481 1482 68.6% 15.2% 16.2% +15.4 2
1929-12-01 @ Leonesa L 0-2 1482 1481 16.2% 15.2% 68.6% -15.4 0
1929-12-01 Valencia W 5-2 1459 1471 67.7% 15.2% 17.1% +17.1 2
1929-12-01 @ Real Betis L 2-5 1471 1459 17.1% 15.2% 67.7% -17.1 0
1929-12-01 Iberia D 1-1 1481 1492 67.8% 15.2% 17.0% -5.5 1
1929-12-01 @ Real Murcia D 1-1 1492 1481 17.0% 15.2% 67.8% +5.5 1
1929-12-01 Alaves W 2-1 1475 1483 68.0% 15.2% 16.7% +7.9 2
1929-12-01 @ Sporting Gijon L 1-2 1483 1475 16.7% 15.2% 68.0% -7.9 0
1929-12-08 Deportivo La Coruna W 5-1 1475 1468 69.1% 15.2% 15.7% +23.5 2
1929-12-08 @ Alaves L 1-5 1468 1475 15.7% 15.2% 69.1% -23.5 2
1929-12-08 Real Betis W 4-1 1497 1476 70.2% 15.2% 14.6% +17.1 3
1929-12-08 @ Iberia L 1-4 1476 1497 14.6% 15.2% 70.2% -17.0 2
1929-12-08 Real Murcia L 1-3 1446 1476 66.1% 15.3% 18.7% -47.3 0
1929-12-08 @ Real Oviedo W 3-1 1476 1446 18.7% 15.3% 66.1% +47.3 3
1929-12-08 Sporting Gijon W 2-0 1467 1483 67.3% 15.2% 17.5% +16.5 2
1929-12-08 @ Sevilla L 0-2 1483 1467 17.5% 15.2% 67.3% -16.5 2
1929-12-08 Leonesa W 3-1 1454 1497 64.9% 15.3% 19.8% +16.0 2
1929-12-08 @ Valencia L 1-3 1497 1454 19.8% 15.3% 64.9% -16.0 2
1929-12-15 Valencia W 3-1 1445 1470 66.5% 15.3% 18.2% +14.8 4
1929-12-15 @ Deportivo La Coruna L 1-3 1470 1445 18.2% 15.3% 66.5% -14.8 2
1929-12-15 Real Oviedo W 3-1 1481 1398 74.2% 15.1% 10.7% +9.0 4
1929-12-15 @ Leonesa L 1-3 1398 1481 10.7% 15.1% 74.2% -9.0 0
1929-12-15 Sevilla L 0-2 1459 1483 66.6% 15.3% 18.1% -55.1 2
1929-12-15 @ Real Betis W 2-0 1483 1459 18.1% 15.3% 66.6% +55.1 4
1929-12-15 Alaves D 2-2 1523 1498 70.5% 15.2% 14.3% -4.6 4
1929-12-15 @ Real Murcia D 2-2 1498 1523 14.3% 15.2% 70.5% +4.6 3
1929-12-15 Iberia W 2-0 1467 1514 64.5% 15.3% 20.3% +18.9 4
1929-12-15 @ Sporting Gijon L 0-2 1514 1467 20.3% 15.3% 64.5% -18.9 3
1929-12-22 Valencia W 4-1 1503 1455 72.1% 15.2% 12.7% +15.0 5
1929-12-22 @ Alaves L 1-4 1455 1503 12.7% 15.2% 72.1% -15.0 2
1929-12-22 Real Murcia L 3-4 1460 1519 63.4% 15.3% 21.4% -24.2 4
1929-12-22 @ Deportivo La Coruna W 4-3 1519 1460 21.4% 15.3% 63.4% +24.2 6
1929-12-22 Leonesa D 2-2 1495 1490 69.1% 15.2% 15.7% -4.3 4
1929-12-22 @ Iberia D 2-2 1490 1495 15.7% 15.2% 69.1% +4.3 5
1929-12-22 Sporting Gijon L 2-4 1404 1486 61.0% 15.3% 23.7% -39.0 2
1929-12-22 @ Real Betis W 4-2 1486 1404 23.7% 15.3% 61.0% +39.0 6
1929-12-22 Sevilla W 3-2 1389 1538 53.1% 15.3% 31.6% +13.3 2
1929-12-22 @ Real Oviedo L 2-3 1538 1389 31.6% 15.3% 53.1% -13.3 4
1929-12-29 Leonesa W 5-0 1518 1494 70.5% 15.2% 14.3% +32.1 7
1929-12-29 @ Alaves L 0-5 1494 1518 14.3% 15.2% 70.5% -32.1 5
1929-12-29 Real Betis W 4-0 1543 1365 78.7% 14.9% 6.4% +12.1 8
1929-12-29 @ Real Murcia L 0-4 1365 1543 6.4% 14.9% 78.7% -12.1 2
1929-12-29 Iberia L 1-2 1525 1491 71.2% 15.2% 13.6% -29.5 4
1929-12-29 @ Sevilla W 2-1 1491 1525 13.6% 15.2% 71.2% +29.5 6
1929-12-29 Deportivo La Coruna W 4-1 1525 1436 74.6% 15.1% 10.3% +12.3 8
1929-12-29 @ Sporting Gijon L 1-4 1436 1525 10.3% 15.1% 74.6% -12.3 4
1929-12-29 Real Oviedo L 2-3 1440 1403 71.4% 15.2% 13.4% -28.1 2
1929-12-29 @ Valencia W 3-2 1403 1440 13.4% 15.2% 71.4% +28.1 4
1930-01-05 Real Betis W 1-0 1423 1353 73.5% 15.1% 11.3% +5.8 6
1930-01-05 @ Deportivo La Coruna L 0-1 1353 1423 11.3% 15.1% 73.5% -5.8 2
1930-01-05 Valencia D 3-3 1521 1412 75.6% 15.0% 9.3% -4.6 7
1930-01-05 @ Iberia D 3-3 1412 1521 9.3% 15.0% 75.6% +4.6 3
1930-01-05 Sporting Gijon W 4-0 1462 1537 61.7% 15.3% 23.0% +40.2 7
1930-01-05 @ Leonesa L 0-4 1537 1462 23.0% 15.3% 61.7% -40.2 8
1930-01-05 Alaves L 0-1 1431 1550 56.8% 15.3% 27.9% -24.9 4
1930-01-05 @ Real Oviedo W 1-0 1550 1431 27.9% 15.3% 56.8% +24.9 9
1930-01-05 Real Murcia W 6-1 1496 1555 63.3% 15.3% 21.4% +38.4 6
1930-01-05 @ Sevilla L 1-6 1555 1496 21.4% 15.3% 63.3% -38.4 8
1930-01-12 Iberia D 0-0 1575 1516 72.8% 15.2% 12.0% -7.5 10
1930-01-12 @ Alaves D 0-0 1516 1575 12.0% 15.2% 72.8% +7.5 8
1930-01-12 Leonesa W 4-3 1429 1502 61.9% 15.3% 22.8% +9.7 8
1930-01-12 @ Deportivo La Coruna L 3-4 1502 1429 22.8% 15.3% 61.9% -9.7 7
1930-01-12 Real Oviedo W 5-2 1347 1406 63.4% 15.3% 21.3% +21.0 4
1930-01-12 @ Real Betis L 2-5 1406 1347 21.3% 15.3% 63.4% -21.0 4
1930-01-12 Real Murcia W 3-2 1497 1517 67.0% 15.2% 17.8% +7.9 10
1930-01-12 @ Sporting Gijon L 2-3 1517 1497 17.8% 15.2% 67.0% -7.9 8
1930-01-12 Sevilla W 4-2 1417 1534 57.0% 15.3% 27.7% +19.3 5
1930-01-12 @ Valencia L 2-4 1534 1417 27.7% 15.3% 57.0% -19.3 6
1930-01-19 Deportivo La Coruna D 0-0 1524 1439 74.4% 15.1% 10.5% -7.9 9
1930-01-19 @ Iberia D 0-0 1439 1524 10.5% 15.1% 74.4% +7.9 9
1930-01-19 Real Betis D 2-2 1492 1368 76.4% 15.0% 8.6% -5.6 8
1930-01-19 @ Leonesa D 2-2 1368 1492 8.6% 15.0% 76.4% +5.6 5
1930-01-19 Valencia L 4-6 1509 1436 73.7% 15.1% 11.2% -43.3 8
1930-01-19 @ Real Murcia W 6-4 1436 1509 11.2% 15.1% 73.7% +43.3 7
1930-01-19 Sporting Gijon W 2-1 1385 1505 56.7% 15.3% 28.0% +12.6 6
1930-01-19 @ Real Oviedo L 1-2 1505 1385 28.0% 15.3% 56.7% -12.6 10
1930-01-19 Alaves W 2-1 1515 1567 64.0% 15.3% 20.8% +9.6 8
1930-01-19 @ Sevilla L 1-2 1567 1515 20.8% 15.3% 64.0% -9.6 10
1930-01-26 Sevilla D 0-0 1447 1524 61.4% 15.3% 23.3% -4.5 10
1930-01-26 @ Deportivo La Coruna D 0-0 1524 1447 23.3% 15.3% 61.4% +4.5 9
1930-01-26 Real Oviedo W 4-1 1516 1398 76.1% 15.0% 8.8% +10.6 11
1930-01-26 @ Iberia L 1-4 1398 1516 8.8% 15.0% 76.1% -10.6 6
1930-01-26 Real Murcia W 4-0 1487 1465 70.3% 15.2% 14.5% +26.3 10
1930-01-26 @ Leonesa L 0-4 1465 1487 14.5% 15.2% 70.3% -26.3 8
1930-01-26 Alaves W 3-2 1374 1558 48.5% 15.3% 36.2% +15.0 7
1930-01-26 @ Real Betis L 2-3 1558 1374 36.2% 15.3% 48.5% -15.0 10
1930-01-26 Sporting Gijon D 2-2 1479 1492 67.6% 15.2% 17.2% -4.0 8
1930-01-26 @ Valencia D 2-2 1492 1479 17.2% 15.2% 67.6% +4.0 11
1930-02-02 Sporting Gijon W 3-1 1543 1496 72.0% 15.2% 12.8% +10.7 12
1930-02-02 @ Alaves L 1-3 1496 1543 12.8% 15.2% 72.0% -10.7 11
1930-02-02 Real Murcia W 2-0 1526 1439 74.5% 15.1% 10.4% +10.1 13
1930-02-02 @ Iberia L 0-2 1439 1526 10.4% 15.1% 74.5% -10.1 8
1930-02-02 Deportivo La Coruna W 2-1 1387 1442 63.7% 15.3% 21.0% +9.8 8
1930-02-02 @ Real Oviedo L 1-2 1442 1387 21.0% 15.3% 63.7% -9.8 10
1930-02-02 Leonesa W 6-1 1529 1513 69.8% 15.2% 14.9% +27.6 11
1930-02-02 @ Sevilla L 1-6 1513 1529 14.9% 15.2% 69.8% -27.6 10
1930-02-02 Real Betis W 2-1 1475 1389 74.5% 15.1% 10.4% +5.1 10
1930-02-02 @ Valencia L 1-2 1389 1475 10.4% 15.1% 74.5% -5.1 7
1930-02-09 Alaves W 4-0 1432 1553 56.6% 15.3% 28.1% +48.0 12
1930-02-09 @ Deportivo La Coruna L 0-4 1553 1432 28.1% 15.3% 56.6% -48.0 12
1930-02-09 Valencia L 0-3 1485 1480 69.0% 15.2% 15.7% -83.0 10
1930-02-09 @ Leonesa W 3-0 1480 1485 15.7% 15.2% 69.0% +83.0 12
1930-02-09 Iberia D 1-1 1384 1536 52.6% 15.3% 32.0% -2.1 8
1930-02-09 @ Real Betis D 1-1 1536 1384 32.0% 15.3% 52.6% +2.1 14
1930-02-09 Real Oviedo D 4-4 1429 1397 71.0% 15.2% 13.8% -3.4 9
1930-02-09 @ Real Murcia D 4-4 1397 1429 13.8% 15.2% 71.0% +3.4 9
1930-02-09 Sevilla W 2-1 1486 1556 62.1% 15.3% 22.6% +10.4 13
1930-02-09 @ Sporting Gijon L 1-2 1556 1486 22.6% 15.3% 62.1% -10.4 11
1930-02-16 Real Murcia W 5-0 1505 1425 74.1% 15.1% 10.8% +24.5 14
1930-02-16 @ Alaves L 0-5 1425 1505 10.8% 15.1% 74.1% -24.5 9
1930-02-16 Sporting Gijon D 0-0 1538 1496 71.8% 15.2% 13.1% -7.2 15
1930-02-16 @ Iberia D 0-0 1496 1538 13.1% 15.2% 71.8% +7.2 14
1930-02-16 Leonesa W 3-0 1400 1402 68.4% 15.2% 16.3% +22.5 11
1930-02-16 @ Real Oviedo L 0-3 1402 1400 16.3% 15.2% 68.4% -22.5 10
1930-02-16 Real Betis W 2-0 1546 1382 78.1% 14.9% 6.9% +6.8 13
1930-02-16 @ Sevilla L 0-2 1382 1546 6.9% 14.9% 78.1% -6.8 8
1930-02-16 Deportivo La Coruna D 2-2 1563 1481 74.3% 15.1% 10.6% -5.2 13
1930-02-16 @ Valencia D 2-2 1481 1563 10.6% 15.1% 74.3% +5.3 13
1930-02-23 Iberia L 0-1 1380 1531 52.8% 15.3% 31.9% -23.3 10
1930-02-23 @ Leonesa W 1-0 1531 1380 31.9% 15.3% 52.8% +23.3 17
1930-02-23 Deportivo La Coruna W 6-2 1401 1486 60.7% 15.3% 24.0% +29.5 11
1930-02-23 @ Real Murcia L 2-6 1486 1401 24.0% 15.3% 60.7% -29.5 13
1930-02-23 Real Oviedo W 4-0 1553 1423 76.7% 15.0% 8.3% +15.5 15
1930-02-23 @ Sevilla L 0-4 1423 1553 8.3% 15.0% 76.7% -15.5 11
1930-02-23 Real Betis W 2-1 1503 1375 76.6% 15.0% 8.4% +4.1 16
1930-02-23 @ Sporting Gijon L 1-2 1375 1503 8.4% 15.0% 76.6% -4.1 8
1930-02-23 Alaves D 1-1 1558 1530 70.8% 15.2% 14.0% -6.2 14
1930-02-23 @ Valencia D 1-1 1530 1558 14.0% 15.2% 70.8% +6.2 15
1930-03-05 Sporting Gijon D 0-0 1456 1507 64.1% 15.3% 20.6% -5.2 14
1930-03-05 @ Deportivo La Coruna D 0-0 1507 1456 20.6% 15.3% 64.1% +5.2 17
1930-03-05 Sevilla D 2-2 1555 1568 67.5% 15.2% 17.3% -4.0 18
1930-03-05 @ Iberia D 2-2 1568 1555 17.3% 15.2% 67.5% +4.0 16
1930-03-05 Alaves D 1-1 1357 1536 49.1% 15.3% 35.6% -1.4 11
1930-03-05 @ Leonesa D 1-1 1536 1357 35.6% 15.3% 49.1% +1.4 16
1930-03-05 Real Murcia W 2-1 1371 1430 63.3% 15.3% 21.4% +9.9 10
1930-03-05 @ Real Betis L 1-2 1430 1371 21.4% 15.3% 63.3% -9.9 11
1930-03-05 Valencia W 5-0 1407 1552 53.6% 15.3% 31.1% +64.6 13
1930-03-05 @ Real Oviedo L 0-5 1552 1407 31.1% 15.3% 53.6% -64.6 14
1930-03-09 Real Oviedo W 6-0 1538 1472 73.3% 15.1% 11.6% +31.2 18
1930-03-09 @ Alaves L 0-6 1472 1538 11.6% 15.1% 73.3% -31.2 13
1930-03-09 Deportivo La Coruna W 3-1 1381 1451 62.2% 15.3% 22.5% +18.0 12
1930-03-09 @ Real Betis L 1-3 1451 1381 22.5% 15.3% 62.2% -18.0 14
1930-03-09 Sevilla W 2-1 1421 1572 52.7% 15.3% 31.9% +14.2 13
1930-03-09 @ Real Murcia L 1-2 1572 1421 31.9% 15.3% 52.7% -14.2 16
1930-03-09 Leonesa W 3-0 1512 1355 77.9% 14.9% 7.2% +10.3 19
1930-03-09 @ Sporting Gijon L 0-3 1355 1512 7.2% 14.9% 77.9% -10.3 11
1930-03-09 Iberia W 3-1 1487 1550 62.9% 15.3% 21.8% +17.4 16
1930-03-09 @ Valencia L 1-3 1550 1487 21.8% 15.3% 62.9% -17.5 18
1930-03-16 Alaves W 1-0 1533 1569 65.6% 15.3% 19.2% +9.5 20
1930-03-16 @ Iberia L 0-1 1569 1533 19.2% 15.3% 65.6% -9.5 18
1930-03-16 Deportivo La Coruna D 2-2 1345 1433 60.3% 15.3% 24.4% -2.8 12
1930-03-16 @ Leonesa D 2-2 1433 1345 24.4% 15.3% 60.3% +2.8 15
1930-03-16 Sporting Gijon W 3-0 1435 1523 60.3% 15.3% 24.4% +32.4 15
1930-03-16 @ Real Murcia L 0-3 1523 1435 24.4% 15.3% 60.3% -32.4 19
1930-03-16 Real Betis W 4-1 1440 1399 71.7% 15.2% 13.1% +15.5 15
1930-03-16 @ Real Oviedo L 1-4 1399 1440 13.1% 15.2% 71.7% -15.5 12
1930-03-16 Valencia W 4-0 1558 1505 72.5% 15.2% 12.4% +22.6 18
1930-03-16 @ Sevilla L 0-4 1505 1558 12.4% 15.2% 72.5% -22.6 16
1930-03-23 Sevilla W 5-0 1559 1581 66.8% 15.2% 17.9% +39.5 20
1930-03-23 @ Alaves L 0-5 1581 1559 17.9% 15.2% 66.8% -39.4 18
1930-03-23 Iberia W 3-0 1436 1543 58.2% 15.3% 26.5% +34.8 17
1930-03-23 @ Deportivo La Coruna L 0-3 1543 1436 26.5% 15.3% 58.2% -34.8 20
1930-03-23 Leonesa W 2-1 1383 1342 71.7% 15.2% 13.2% +6.3 14
1930-03-23 @ Real Betis L 1-2 1342 1383 13.2% 15.2% 71.7% -6.3 12
1930-03-23 Real Oviedo L 1-3 1490 1456 71.2% 15.2% 13.6% -51.1 19
1930-03-23 @ Sporting Gijon W 3-1 1456 1490 13.6% 15.2% 71.2% +51.1 17
1930-03-23 Real Murcia W 4-0 1482 1467 69.8% 15.2% 15.0% +27.1 18
1930-03-23 @ Valencia L 0-4 1467 1482 15.0% 15.2% 69.8% -27.1 15
1930-03-30 Real Betis W 2-0 1599 1390 79.8% 14.8% 5.4% +5.4 22
1930-03-30 @ Alaves L 0-2 1390 1599 5.4% 14.8% 79.8% -5.4 14
1930-03-30 Leonesa L 3-4 1440 1336 75.4% 15.1% 9.5% -29.1 15
1930-03-30 @ Real Murcia W 4-3 1336 1440 9.5% 15.1% 75.4% +29.1 14
1930-03-30 Iberia D 2-2 1507 1508 68.6% 15.2% 16.2% -4.2 18
1930-03-30 @ Real Oviedo D 2-2 1508 1507 16.2% 15.2% 68.6% +4.2 21
1930-03-30 Deportivo La Coruna W 4-1 1541 1471 73.6% 15.1% 11.3% +13.4 20
1930-03-30 @ Sevilla L 1-4 1471 1541 11.3% 15.1% 73.6% -13.5 17
1930-03-30 Valencia W 2-1 1439 1509 62.2% 15.3% 22.5% +10.4 21
1930-03-30 @ Sporting Gijon L 1-2 1509 1439 22.5% 15.3% 62.2% -10.4 18

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1930-06-14 Sevilla W 2-0 1539 1555 67.3% 15.2% 17.4% +16.4 1-0
1930-06-14 @ Racing Santander L 0-2 1555 1539 17.4% 15.2% 67.3% -16.4 0-1
1930-07-07 Racing Santander W 2-1 1538 1555 67.2% 15.2% 17.5% +8.3 1-1
1930-07-07 @ Sevilla L 1-2 1555 1538 17.5% 15.2% 67.2% -8.3 1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1930-03-30 9.52% Leonesa 1336 4 @ Real Murcia 1440 3
2 1930-01-19 11.21% Valencia 1436 6 @ Real Murcia 1509 4
3 1929-12-29 13.39% Real Oviedo 1403 3 @ Valencia 1440 2
4 1930-03-23 13.60% Real Oviedo 1456 3 @ Sporting Gijon 1490 1
5 1929-12-29 13.63% Iberia 1491 2 @ Sevilla 1525 1
6 1930-02-09 15.74% Valencia 1480 3 @ Leonesa 1485 0
7 1929-12-15 18.12% Sevilla 1483 2 @ Real Betis 1459 0
8 1929-12-08 18.68% Real Murcia 1476 3 @ Real Oviedo 1446 1
9 1929-12-22 21.36% Real Murcia 1519 4 @ Deportivo La Coruna 1460 3
10 1929-12-22 23.66% Sporting Gijon 1486 4 @ Real Betis 1404 2
11 1930-01-05 27.90% Alaves 1550 1 @ Real Oviedo 1431 0
12 1930-02-23 31.87% Iberia 1531 1 @ Leonesa 1380 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1930-02-09 83.02 Valencia 3 1480 15.74% @ Leonesa 0 1485 69.03% 15.22%
2 1930-03-05 64.60 @ Real Oviedo 5 1407 53.62% Valencia 0 1552 31.06% 15.32%
3 1929-12-15 55.08 Sevilla 2 1483 18.12% @ Real Betis 0 1459 66.62% 15.26%
4 1930-03-23 51.15 Real Oviedo 3 1456 13.60% @ Sporting Gijon 1 1490 71.21% 15.18%
5 1930-02-09 48.03 @ Deportivo La Coruna 4 1432 56.56% Alaves 0 1553 28.12% 15.32%
6 1929-12-08 47.29 Real Murcia 3 1476 18.68% @ Real Oviedo 1 1446 66.06% 15.26%
7 1930-01-19 43.31 Valencia 6 1436 11.21% @ Real Murcia 4 1509 73.67% 15.12%
8 1930-01-05 40.16 @ Leonesa 4 1462 61.70% Sporting Gijon 0 1537 23.00% 15.30%
9 1930-03-23 39.45 @ Alaves 5 1559 66.82% Sevilla 0 1581 17.93% 15.25%
10 1929-12-22 39.05 Sporting Gijon 4 1486 23.66% @ Real Betis 2 1404 61.04% 15.30%
11 1930-01-05 38.41 @ Sevilla 6 1496 63.31% Real Murcia 1 1555 21.41% 15.29%
12 1930-03-23 34.83 @ Deportivo La Coruna 3 1436 58.24% Iberia 0 1543 26.45% 15.31%
13 1930-03-16 32.39 @ Real Murcia 3 1435 60.31% Sporting Gijon 0 1523 24.38% 15.30%
14 1929-12-29 32.11 @ Alaves 5 1518 70.45% Leonesa 0 1494 14.35% 15.20%
15 1930-03-09 31.22 @ Alaves 6 1538 73.26% Real Oviedo 0 1472 11.60% 15.13%
16 1930-02-23 29.54 @ Real Murcia 6 1401 60.66% Deportivo La Coruna 2 1486 24.04% 15.30%
17 1929-12-29 29.52 Iberia 2 1491 13.63% @ Sevilla 1 1525 71.18% 15.18%
18 1930-03-30 29.08 Leonesa 4 1336 9.52% @ Real Murcia 3 1440 75.42% 15.06%
19 1929-12-29 28.11 Real Oviedo 3 1403 13.39% @ Valencia 2 1440 71.43% 15.18%
20 1930-02-02 27.60 @ Sevilla 6 1529 69.85% Leonesa 1 1513 14.94% 15.21%
21 1930-03-23 27.12 @ Valencia 4 1482 69.81% Real Murcia 0 1467 14.98% 15.21%
22 1930-01-26 26.33 @ Leonesa 4 1487 70.28% Real Murcia 0 1465 14.52% 15.20%
23 1930-01-05 24.92 Alaves 1 1550 27.90% @ Real Oviedo 0 1431 56.78% 15.32%
24 1930-02-16 24.52 @ Alaves 5 1505 74.11% Real Murcia 0 1425 10.78% 15.11%
25 1929-12-22 24.23 Real Murcia 4 1519 21.36% @ Deportivo La Coruna 3 1460 63.36% 15.29%