1929 Segunda División Season

90 games

Final

Promoted

—

No promotions.

Relegated

Celta Vigo

13 pts

Racing Club Madrid · 13 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Iberia

3.96 points above expected

22 points · 18.04 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Celta Vigo

4.30 points below expected

13 points · 17.30 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Sevilla	18	8	6	4	22	35	24	+11	18.69	+3.31
2	Iberia	18	9	4	5	22	33	27	+6	18.04	+3.96
3	Alaves	18	8	5	5	21	28	20	+8	18.92	+2.08
4	Sporting Gijon	18	7	5	6	19	41	35	+6	18.05	+0.95
5	Valencia	18	8	3	7	19	33	31	+2	18.20	+0.80
6	Real Betis	18	7	4	7	18	35	36	-1	17.98	+0.02
7	Real Oviedo	18	7	3	8	17	43	39	+4	18.31	-1.31
8	Deportivo La Coruna	18	6	4	8	16	27	37	-10	18.17	-2.17
9	Celta Vigo Relegated	18	4	5	9	13	29	38	-9	17.30	-4.30
10	Racing Club Madrid Relegated	18	6	1	11	13	31	48	-17	16.34	-3.34

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Iberia	1492	22	18.04	+3.96	91.4%	6	13	16	18	20	23	31
Alaves	1475	21	18.92	+2.08	78.7%	7	14	17	19	21	24	31
Sevilla	1474	22	18.69	+3.31	87.6%	7	13	16	19	21	24	31
Sporting Gijon	1461	19	18.05	+0.95	66.9%	7	13	16	18	20	24	31
Valencia	1453	19	18.20	+0.80	66.0%	6	13	16	18	20	24	32
Real Oviedo	1443	17	18.31	-1.31	39.9%	6	13	16	18	21	24	30
Real Betis	1430	18	17.98	+0.02	56.8%	7	13	16	18	20	23	30
Deportivo La Coruna	1409	16	18.17	-2.17	30.6%	5	13	16	18	20	24	32
Celta Vigo	1397	13	17.30	-4.30	12.9%	4	12	15	17	20	23	30
Racing Club Madrid	1379	13	16.34	-3.34	18.9%	3	11	14	16	19	22	28

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ALA	CV	DLC	IBE	RCM	RB	RO	SEV	SG	VAL
Alaves	—	1-1-0 3.08	2-0-0 2.85	1-1-0 2.94	1-0-1 3.33	0-1-1 2.97	1-0-1 2.89	0-1-1 2.88	1-1-0 2.94	1-0-1 2.99
Celta Vigo	0-1-1 2.58	—	0-1-1 2.69	0-0-2 2.78	1-0-1 2.93	1-0-1 2.74	0-1-1 2.64	1-1-0 2.56	0-1-1 2.73	1-0-1 2.73
Deportivo La Coruna	0-0-2 2.80	1-1-0 2.96	—	1-0-1 2.70	2-0-0 2.98	0-1-1 2.91	0-1-1 2.83	0-1-1 2.84	1-0-1 2.92	1-0-1 2.73
Iberia	0-1-1 2.72	2-0-0 2.87	1-0-1 2.95	—	2-0-0 3.11	1-1-0 2.79	1-0-1 2.75	1-0-1 2.68	0-2-0 2.85	1-0-1 2.80
Racing Club Madrid	1-0-1 2.32	1-0-1 2.72	0-0-2 2.68	0-0-2 2.54	—	1-0-1 2.51	1-0-1 2.61	0-1-1 2.45	1-0-1 2.57	1-0-1 2.57
Real Betis	1-1-0 2.69	1-0-1 2.91	1-1-0 2.75	0-1-1 2.86	1-0-1 3.14	—	1-0-1 2.76	1-0-1 2.72	1-0-1 2.76	0-1-1 2.81
Real Oviedo	1-0-1 2.76	1-1-0 3.01	1-1-0 2.82	1-0-1 2.90	1-0-1 3.04	1-0-1 2.89	—	0-1-1 2.73	1-0-1 2.82	0-0-2 2.85
Sevilla	1-1-0 2.77	0-1-1 3.09	1-1-0 2.82	1-0-1 2.97	1-1-0 3.20	1-0-1 2.93	1-1-0 2.92	—	1-0-1 2.90	1-1-0 2.87
Sporting Gijon	0-1-1 2.71	1-1-0 2.92	1-0-1 2.73	0-2-0 2.81	1-0-1 3.08	1-0-1 2.89	1-0-1 2.83	1-0-1 2.75	—	1-1-0 2.76
Valencia	1-0-1 2.66	1-0-1 2.92	1-0-1 2.92	1-0-1 2.85	1-0-1 3.08	1-1-0 2.84	2-0-0 2.80	0-1-1 2.78	0-1-1 2.89	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.04	+1.3
Allowed	0.77	-3.5
Differential	0.83	+3.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.22%	5.00%	2.22%	1.67%	1.11%	3.33%	15.56%
1	5.00%	12.22%	7.22%	6.11%	1.11%	0.56%	32.22%
2	2.22%	7.22%	5.56%	5.56%	2.22%	2.22%	25.00%
3	1.67%	6.11%	5.56%	2.22%	0.56%	—	16.11%
4	1.11%	1.11%	2.22%	0.56%	—	—	5.00%
5+	3.33%	0.56%	2.22%	—	—	—	6.11%
Total	15.56%	32.22%	25.00%	16.11%	5.00%	6.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.86	1.86	+0.00
SD	1.50	1.50	2.33
CV	0.80	0.80	—
Max	8	8	+8
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
1	22.22%	27.78%	5.56%	—	—	—	55.56%
2	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	27.78%	50.00%	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	1.11	+0.44
SD	1.38	1.02	1.85
CV	0.89	0.92	—
Max	6	3	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%	22.22%
1	—	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	5.56%	38.89%	22.22%	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.61	2.11	-0.50
SD	1.50	1.45	2.43
CV	0.93	0.69	—
Max	6	5	+6
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	27.78%
1	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	38.89%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	22.22%	22.22%	33.33%	11.11%	—	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	2.06	-0.56
SD	1.54	2.21	3.05
CV	1.03	1.07	—
Max	5	8	+3
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
1	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	38.89%
2	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	27.78%	27.78%	22.22%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.83	1.50	+0.33
SD	1.04	1.10	1.61
CV	0.57	0.73	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
2	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
3	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	22.22%	27.78%	11.11%	16.67%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.72	2.67	-0.94
SD	1.41	1.68	2.55
CV	0.82	0.63	—
Max	4	6	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
1	—	16.67%	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	38.89%
2	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	22.22%
3	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	38.89%	11.11%	27.78%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.94	2.00	-0.06
SD	1.80	1.53	2.69
CV	0.92	0.77	—
Max	8	6	+8
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
2	—	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	44.44%
3	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	5.56%	27.78%	27.78%	27.78%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.39	2.17	+0.22
SD	1.46	1.25	2.16
CV	0.61	0.58	—
Max	6	5	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	38.89%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	22.22%	27.78%	44.44%	5.56%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.94	1.33	+0.61
SD	1.21	0.91	1.33
CV	0.62	0.68	—
Max	5	3	+3
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
1	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
Total	16.67%	38.89%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.28	1.94	+0.33
SD	2.22	1.83	3.29
CV	0.97	0.94	—
Max	7	6	+7
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	27.78%	33.33%	11.11%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.83	1.72	+0.11
SD	1.20	1.23	1.60
CV	0.65	0.71	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Iberia	22	18.04	+3.96
2	Sevilla	22	18.69	+3.31
3	Alaves	21	18.92	+2.08
4	Sporting Gijon	19	18.05	+0.95
5	Valencia	19	18.20	+0.80

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Celta Vigo	13	17.30	-4.30
2	Racing Club Madrid	13	16.34	-3.34
3	Deportivo La Coruna	16	18.17	-2.17
4	Real Oviedo	17	18.31	-1.31
5	Real Betis	18	17.98	+0.02

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Iberia	3	May 5 – May 26	1 in 12
2	Alaves	3	Mar 24 – Apr 7	1 in 11
3	Deportivo La Coruna	2	Feb 10 – Feb 17	1 in 8
4	Sevilla	3	Apr 7 – Apr 28	1 in 4
5	Racing Club Madrid	2	May 12 – May 26	1 in 3

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Racing Club Madrid	4	Feb 10 – Mar 3	1 in 18
2	Celta Vigo	3	Mar 31 – Apr 21	1 in 12
3	Iberia	2	Feb 10 – Feb 17	1 in 9
4	Deportivo La Coruna	2	May 12 – May 26	1 in 8
5	Valencia	2	May 12 – May 26	1 in 3

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Sevilla	10	Feb 10 – Apr 28	1 in 174
2	Alaves	5	Mar 3 – Apr 7	1 in 12
3	Iberia	4	Mar 10 – Apr 7	1 in 12
4	Sporting Gijon	4	Jun 2 – Jun 23	1 in 10
5	Celta Vigo	5	May 30 – Jun 23	1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Alaves	4	Apr 21 – May 12	1 in 15
2	Sporting Gijon	5	Feb 24 – Mar 31	1 in 14
3	Real Betis	5	Mar 3 – Apr 7	1 in 13
4	Racing Club Madrid	6	Feb 10 – Mar 24	1 in 13
5	Celta Vigo	5	Mar 10 – Apr 21	1 in 6

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Sevilla	15.38%	14.06%	12.23%	11.08%	9.73%	9.08%	8.51%	7.42%	7.03%	5.48%
Iberia	10.52%	10.39%	10.66%	10.14%	10.92%	10.47%	10.14%	9.72%	9.02%	8.02%
Alaves	16.05%	13.46%	12.22%	11.40%	10.60%	9.03%	8.72%	7.67%	6.21%	4.64%
Sporting Gijon	10.84%	10.54%	10.39%	10.13%	10.16%	10.54%	9.84%	9.73%	9.52%	8.31%
Valencia	9.81%	10.70%	10.06%	10.83%	10.53%	10.88%	10.38%	10.10%	9.04%	7.67%
Real Betis	8.73%	9.12%	9.72%	10.33%	10.45%	10.43%	10.58%	10.65%	10.30%	9.69%
Real Oviedo	11.53%	11.18%	11.12%	10.85%	10.20%	10.02%	9.40%	8.89%	8.84%	7.97%
Deportivo La Coruna	8.63%	8.95%	10.13%	10.29%	10.38%	10.33%	10.51%	10.63%	10.46%	9.69%
Celta Vigo	5.75%	7.41%	7.96%	8.28%	9.24%	10.44%	10.75%	11.95%	13.27%	14.95%
Racing Club Madrid	2.76%	4.19%	5.51%	6.67%	7.79%	8.78%	11.17%	13.24%	16.31%	23.58%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+57.78%

Strong Edge

67.78%22.22%10.00%

Elo Value

Home Edge

178 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

0229.00500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+1.30 goals

Strong Home

-2+1.29+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

8.7

Wide Open

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

15%

Sevilla, 2nd of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.00/gm

Photo Finish

00.100.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.64 * Some Luck: 2.64 to 3.96 * Lucky: 3.96 to 5.28 * Wild Swing: 5.28 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.36 * Close: 2.36 to 3.54 * Off: 3.54 to 4.71 * Way Off: 4.71 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.32 * A Surprise: 1.32 to 2.11 * Several Surprises: 2.11 to 2.9 * Many Surprises: 2.9 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

2.62 points

As Expected

03.308

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.00

Pinpoint

02.956

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

91.38%

Iberia

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

12.89%

Celta Vigo

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

0 of 2

As Expected

01.32

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.10

Balanced

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.78

Coin-Flip Parity

01.003

Interquartile Edge

58%

Even

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

66%

Even

50%67%100%

Close Games

Expected

59%

Very Frequent

0%47%100%

Blowouts

Expected

20%

Frequent

0%29%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.49

Highly Predictable

00.522

Matchup Imbalance

0.56

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.63

Very Predictable

01.002

Repeatability

N/A

No prior ratings

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

10%

Chalky

0%18%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

10%

Solid Favorites

0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.11 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.11 to 0.17 * Above Noise: 0.17 to 0.23 * Well Above Noise: 0.23 and up.

Probability calibration

0.48

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.47

Overconfident

0.3138041.001.6862

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.090

Well Within Noise

00.1140.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Lost promotion playoff	Same level	Direct relegation
Sevilla	100%	—	—
Alaves	16.05%	73.10%	10.85%
Valencia	9.81%	73.48%	16.71%
Real Oviedo	11.53%	71.66%	16.81%
Iberia	10.52%	72.44%	17.04%
Sporting Gijon	10.84%	71.33%	17.83%
Real Betis	8.73%	71.28%	19.99%
Deportivo La Coruna	8.63%	71.22%	20.15%
Celta Vigo	5.75%	66.03%	28.22%
Racing Club Madrid	2.76%	57.35%	39.89%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1929-02-10	Sporting Gijon	W 1-0	1441	1441	65.0%	17.4%	17.6%	+3.7	2
1929-02-10	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 0-1	1441	1441	17.6%	17.4%	65.0%	-3.7	0
1929-02-10	Alaves	L 1-2	1441	1441	65.0%	17.4%	17.6%	-11.0	0
1929-02-10	@ Iberia	W 2-1	1441	1441	17.6%	17.4%	65.0%	+11.0	2
1929-02-10	Celta Vigo	W 3-1	1441	1441	65.0%	17.4%	17.6%	+6.0	2
1929-02-10	@ Real Betis	L 1-3	1441	1441	17.6%	17.4%	65.0%	-6.0	0
1929-02-10	Racing Club Madrid	W 4-2	1441	1441	65.0%	17.4%	17.6%	+5.3	2
1929-02-10	@ Real Oviedo	L 2-4	1441	1441	17.6%	17.4%	65.0%	-5.3	0
1929-02-10	Sevilla	D 2-2	1441	1441	65.0%	17.4%	17.6%	-1.5	1
1929-02-10	@ Valencia	D 2-2	1441	1441	17.6%	17.4%	65.0%	+1.5	1
1929-02-17	Real Oviedo	W 3-1	1452	1447	65.5%	17.4%	17.2%	+5.8	4
1929-02-17	@ Alaves	L 1-3	1447	1452	17.2%	17.4%	65.5%	-5.8	2
1929-02-17	Valencia	W 2-1	1435	1440	64.6%	17.4%	18.0%	+3.5	2
1929-02-17	@ Celta Vigo	L 1-2	1440	1435	18.0%	17.4%	64.6%	-3.5	1
1929-02-17	Deportivo La Coruna	L 1-4	1436	1445	64.1%	17.4%	18.4%	-26.5	0
1929-02-17	@ Racing Club Madrid	W 4-1	1445	1436	18.4%	17.4%	64.1%	+26.5	4
1929-02-17	Iberia	W 3-1	1443	1430	66.0%	17.3%	16.6%	+5.7	3
1929-02-17	@ Sevilla	L 1-3	1430	1443	16.6%	17.3%	66.0%	-5.7	0
1929-02-17	Real Betis	W 6-2	1438	1447	64.1%	17.4%	18.5%	+9.7	2
1929-02-17	@ Sporting Gijon	L 2-6	1447	1438	18.5%	17.4%	64.1%	-9.7	2
1929-02-24	Sevilla	D 2-2	1471	1448	66.9%	17.3%	15.8%	-1.7	5
1929-02-24	@ Deportivo La Coruna	D 2-2	1448	1471	15.8%	17.3%	66.9%	+1.7	4
1929-02-24	Celta Vigo	W 1-0	1425	1439	63.7%	17.5%	18.9%	+3.9	2
1929-02-24	@ Iberia	L 0-1	1439	1425	18.9%	17.5%	63.7%	-3.9	2
1929-02-24	Alaves	W 3-2	1438	1458	63.1%	17.5%	19.4%	+3.6	4
1929-02-24	@ Real Betis	L 2-3	1458	1438	19.4%	17.5%	63.1%	-3.6	4
1929-02-24	Sporting Gijon	W 6-2	1441	1447	64.4%	17.4%	18.2%	+9.5	4
1929-02-24	@ Real Oviedo	L 2-6	1447	1441	18.2%	17.4%	64.4%	-9.5	2
1929-02-24	Racing Club Madrid	W 2-0	1436	1409	67.2%	17.3%	15.5%	+6.1	3
1929-02-24	@ Valencia	L 0-2	1409	1436	15.5%	17.3%	67.2%	-6.1	0
1929-03-03	Deportivo La Coruna	W 3-1	1454	1470	63.6%	17.5%	19.0%	+6.4	6
1929-03-03	@ Alaves	L 1-3	1470	1454	19.0%	17.5%	63.6%	-6.4	5
1929-03-03	Racing Club Madrid	W 6-0	1435	1403	67.6%	17.3%	15.1%	+16.7	4
1929-03-03	@ Celta Vigo	L 0-6	1403	1435	15.1%	17.3%	67.6%	-16.7	0
1929-03-03	Real Betis	W 3-1	1450	1441	65.8%	17.4%	16.9%	+5.8	6
1929-03-03	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-3	1441	1450	16.9%	17.4%	65.8%	-5.8	4
1929-03-03	Sporting Gijon	W 1-0	1450	1438	66.0%	17.3%	16.6%	+3.5	6
1929-03-03	@ Sevilla	L 0-1	1438	1450	16.6%	17.3%	66.0%	-3.5	2
1929-03-03	Iberia	W 3-2	1442	1429	66.1%	17.3%	16.5%	+3.1	5
1929-03-03	@ Valencia	L 2-3	1429	1442	16.5%	17.3%	66.1%	-3.1	2
1929-03-10	Celta Vigo	W 4-2	1463	1452	66.0%	17.4%	16.7%	+5.1	7
1929-03-10	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 2-4	1452	1463	16.7%	17.4%	66.0%	-5.1	4
1929-03-10	Real Oviedo	W 2-0	1425	1456	62.1%	17.5%	20.4%	+7.9	4
1929-03-10	@ Iberia	L 0-2	1456	1425	20.4%	17.5%	62.1%	-7.9	6
1929-03-10	Sevilla	D 1-1	1387	1454	58.3%	17.6%	24.1%	-1.4	1
1929-03-10	@ Racing Club Madrid	D 1-1	1454	1387	24.1%	17.6%	58.3%	+1.5	7
1929-03-10	Valencia	D 1-1	1435	1445	64.1%	17.4%	18.5%	-2.0	5
1929-03-10	@ Real Betis	D 1-1	1445	1435	18.5%	17.4%	64.1%	+2.0	6
1929-03-10	Alaves	D 1-1	1434	1461	62.5%	17.5%	20.0%	-1.8	3
1929-03-10	@ Sporting Gijon	D 1-1	1461	1434	20.0%	17.5%	62.5%	+1.8	7
1929-03-24	Racing Club Madrid	W 1-0	1463	1385	70.9%	17.0%	12.0%	+2.6	9
1929-03-24	@ Alaves	L 0-1	1385	1463	12.0%	17.0%	70.9%	-2.6	1
1929-03-24	Real Betis	D 0-0	1468	1433	67.9%	17.2%	14.9%	-2.6	8
1929-03-24	@ Deportivo La Coruna	D 0-0	1433	1468	14.9%	17.2%	67.9%	+2.6	6
1929-03-24	Celta Vigo	D 2-2	1455	1446	65.7%	17.4%	16.9%	-1.6	8
1929-03-24	@ Sevilla	D 2-2	1446	1455	16.9%	17.4%	65.7%	+1.6	5
1929-03-24	Iberia	D 2-2	1432	1433	64.9%	17.4%	17.7%	-1.5	4
1929-03-24	@ Sporting Gijon	D 2-2	1433	1432	17.7%	17.4%	64.9%	+1.5	5
1929-03-24	Real Oviedo	W 4-2	1447	1448	64.9%	17.4%	17.7%	+5.4	8
1929-03-24	@ Valencia	L 2-4	1448	1447	17.7%	17.4%	64.9%	-5.4	6
1929-03-31	Alaves	L 0-1	1448	1465	63.4%	17.5%	19.1%	-11.3	5
1929-03-31	@ Celta Vigo	W 1-0	1465	1448	19.1%	17.5%	63.4%	+11.3	11
1929-03-31	Sporting Gijon	W 4-0	1383	1431	60.3%	17.6%	22.1%	+16.1	3
1929-03-31	@ Racing Club Madrid	L 0-4	1431	1383	22.1%	17.6%	60.3%	-16.1	4
1929-03-31	Iberia	D 1-1	1436	1435	65.1%	17.4%	17.5%	-2.1	7
1929-03-31	@ Real Betis	D 1-1	1435	1436	17.5%	17.4%	65.1%	+2.1	6
1929-03-31	Sevilla	D 2-2	1443	1453	64.0%	17.4%	18.6%	-1.5	7
1929-03-31	@ Real Oviedo	D 2-2	1453	1443	18.6%	17.4%	64.0%	+1.5	9
1929-03-31	Deportivo La Coruna	W 2-1	1453	1466	63.8%	17.5%	18.8%	+3.7	10
1929-03-31	@ Valencia	L 1-2	1466	1453	18.8%	17.5%	63.8%	-3.7	8
1929-04-07	Valencia	W 1-0	1477	1456	66.7%	17.3%	16.0%	+3.4	13
1929-04-07	@ Alaves	L 0-1	1456	1477	16.0%	17.3%	66.7%	-3.4	10
1929-04-07	Real Oviedo	D 1-1	1462	1441	66.7%	17.3%	16.0%	-2.2	9
1929-04-07	@ Deportivo La Coruna	D 1-1	1441	1462	16.0%	17.3%	66.7%	+2.2	8
1929-04-07	Racing Club Madrid	W 3-2	1437	1399	68.1%	17.2%	14.6%	+2.8	8
1929-04-07	@ Iberia	L 2-3	1399	1437	14.6%	17.2%	68.1%	-2.8	3
1929-04-07	Real Betis	W 3-0	1455	1434	66.7%	17.3%	15.9%	+9.1	11
1929-04-07	@ Sevilla	L 0-3	1434	1455	15.9%	17.3%	66.7%	-9.2	7
1929-04-07	Celta Vigo	W 5-0	1415	1437	62.9%	17.5%	19.6%	+17.8	6
1929-04-07	@ Sporting Gijon	L 0-5	1437	1415	19.6%	17.5%	62.9%	-17.8	5
1929-04-21	Iberia	W 3-0	1460	1440	66.7%	17.3%	16.0%	+9.2	11
1929-04-21	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 0-3	1440	1460	16.0%	17.3%	66.7%	-9.2	8
1929-04-21	Real Betis	L 1-2	1396	1425	62.3%	17.5%	20.2%	-10.5	3
1929-04-21	@ Racing Club Madrid	W 2-1	1425	1396	20.2%	17.5%	62.3%	+10.5	9
1929-04-21	Celta Vigo	W 5-0	1444	1419	67.0%	17.3%	15.7%	+14.5	10
1929-04-21	@ Real Oviedo	L 0-5	1419	1444	15.7%	17.3%	67.0%	-14.5	5
1929-04-21	Alaves	W 1-0	1464	1480	63.5%	17.5%	19.0%	+3.9	13
1929-04-21	@ Sevilla	L 0-1	1480	1464	19.0%	17.5%	63.5%	-3.9	13
1929-04-21	Sporting Gijon	D 0-0	1453	1433	66.7%	17.3%	16.0%	-2.5	11
1929-04-21	@ Valencia	D 0-0	1433	1453	16.0%	17.3%	66.7%	+2.5	7
1929-04-28	Iberia	D 1-1	1476	1430	68.7%	17.2%	14.1%	-2.4	14
1929-04-28	@ Alaves	D 1-1	1430	1476	14.1%	17.2%	68.7%	+2.4	9
1929-04-28	Real Betis	W 3-1	1404	1435	62.1%	17.5%	20.4%	+6.8	7
1929-04-28	@ Celta Vigo	L 1-3	1435	1404	20.4%	17.5%	62.1%	-6.8	9
1929-04-28	Real Oviedo	W 3-2	1385	1458	57.7%	17.6%	24.7%	+4.4	5
1929-04-28	@ Racing Club Madrid	L 2-3	1458	1385	24.7%	17.6%	57.7%	-4.4	10
1929-04-28	Valencia	W 4-2	1468	1451	66.5%	17.3%	16.2%	+5.0	15
1929-04-28	@ Sevilla	L 2-4	1451	1468	16.2%	17.3%	66.5%	-5.0	11
1929-04-28	Deportivo La Coruna	W 7-0	1435	1469	61.8%	17.5%	20.7%	+25.7	9
1929-04-28	@ Sporting Gijon	L 0-7	1469	1435	20.7%	17.5%	61.8%	-25.7	11
1929-05-05	Racing Club Madrid	W 5-2	1443	1390	69.3%	17.2%	13.6%	+5.8	13
1929-05-05	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 2-5	1390	1443	13.6%	17.2%	69.3%	-5.8	5
1929-05-05	Sevilla	W 1-0	1433	1473	61.2%	17.5%	21.3%	+4.3	11
1929-05-05	@ Iberia	L 0-1	1473	1433	21.3%	17.5%	61.2%	-4.3	15
1929-05-05	Sporting Gijon	W 3-1	1428	1461	61.9%	17.5%	20.5%	+6.9	11
1929-05-05	@ Real Betis	L 1-3	1461	1428	20.5%	17.5%	61.9%	-6.9	9
1929-05-05	Alaves	W 2-1	1454	1474	63.1%	17.5%	19.4%	+3.8	12
1929-05-05	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-2	1474	1454	19.4%	17.5%	63.1%	-3.8	14
1929-05-05	Celta Vigo	W 3-2	1446	1411	67.8%	17.2%	14.9%	+2.8	13
1929-05-05	@ Valencia	L 2-3	1411	1446	14.9%	17.2%	67.8%	-2.8	7
1929-05-12	Real Betis	D 1-1	1470	1435	67.8%	17.2%	14.9%	-2.3	15
1929-05-12	@ Alaves	D 1-1	1435	1470	14.9%	17.2%	67.8%	+2.3	12
1929-05-12	Iberia	L 1-2	1408	1437	62.3%	17.5%	20.2%	-10.5	7
1929-05-12	@ Celta Vigo	W 2-1	1437	1408	20.2%	17.5%	62.3%	+10.5	13
1929-05-12	Valencia	W 4-3	1384	1448	58.6%	17.6%	23.8%	+4.2	7
1929-05-12	@ Racing Club Madrid	L 3-4	1448	1384	23.8%	17.6%	58.6%	-4.2	13
1929-05-12	Deportivo La Coruna	W 2-0	1469	1449	66.6%	17.3%	16.1%	+6.3	17
1929-05-12	@ Sevilla	L 0-2	1449	1469	16.1%	17.3%	66.6%	-6.4	13
1929-05-12	Real Oviedo	W 3-2	1454	1457	64.6%	17.4%	17.9%	+3.3	11
1929-05-12	@ Sporting Gijon	L 2-3	1457	1454	17.9%	17.4%	64.6%	-3.3	12
1929-05-26	Alaves	L 0-1	1443	1468	62.7%	17.5%	19.8%	-11.2	13
1929-05-26	@ Deportivo La Coruna	W 1-0	1468	1443	19.8%	17.5%	62.7%	+11.2	17
1929-05-26	Valencia	W 3-1	1448	1444	65.3%	17.4%	17.3%	+5.9	15
1929-05-26	@ Iberia	L 1-3	1444	1448	17.3%	17.4%	65.3%	-5.9	13
1929-05-26	Celta Vigo	W 2-1	1388	1398	64.1%	17.4%	18.5%	+3.6	9
1929-05-26	@ Racing Club Madrid	L 1-2	1398	1388	18.5%	17.4%	64.1%	-3.6	7
1929-05-26	Real Oviedo	W 3-2	1438	1454	63.5%	17.5%	19.1%	+3.5	14
1929-05-26	@ Real Betis	L 2-3	1454	1438	19.1%	17.5%	63.5%	-3.5	12
1929-05-26	Sevilla	W 2-1	1457	1475	63.3%	17.5%	19.2%	+3.7	13
1929-05-26	@ Sporting Gijon	L 1-2	1475	1457	19.2%	17.5%	63.3%	-3.7	17
1929-05-30	Sporting Gijon	W 6-0	1479	1461	66.5%	17.3%	16.2%	+17.7	19
1929-05-30	@ Alaves	L 0-6	1461	1479	16.2%	17.3%	66.5%	-17.8	13
1929-05-30	Deportivo La Coruna	D 1-1	1394	1432	61.5%	17.5%	21.0%	-1.7	8
1929-05-30	@ Celta Vigo	D 1-1	1432	1394	21.0%	17.5%	61.5%	+1.7	14
1929-05-30	Iberia	W 2-1	1451	1454	64.7%	17.4%	17.9%	+3.5	14
1929-05-30	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-2	1454	1451	17.9%	17.4%	64.7%	-3.5	15
1929-05-30	Racing Club Madrid	W 2-1	1471	1392	71.1%	17.0%	11.9%	+2.4	19
1929-05-30	@ Sevilla	L 1-2	1392	1471	11.9%	17.0%	71.1%	-2.4	9
1929-05-30	Real Betis	W 3-1	1438	1441	64.7%	17.4%	17.9%	+6.1	15
1929-05-30	@ Valencia	L 1-3	1441	1438	17.9%	17.4%	64.7%	-6.1	14
1929-06-02	Sevilla	W 3-2	1393	1474	56.8%	17.6%	25.6%	+4.6	10
1929-06-02	@ Celta Vigo	L 2-3	1474	1393	25.6%	17.6%	56.8%	-4.6	19
1929-06-02	Sporting Gijon	D 3-3	1450	1443	65.6%	17.4%	17.1%	-1.3	16
1929-06-02	@ Iberia	D 3-3	1443	1450	17.1%	17.4%	65.6%	+1.3	14
1929-06-02	Alaves	W 3-2	1389	1496	53.7%	17.7%	28.6%	+5.0	11
1929-06-02	@ Racing Club Madrid	L 2-3	1496	1389	28.6%	17.7%	53.7%	-5.0	19
1929-06-02	Deportivo La Coruna	W 8-0	1435	1433	65.1%	17.4%	17.5%	+25.0	16
1929-06-02	@ Real Betis	L 0-8	1433	1435	17.5%	17.4%	65.1%	-25.0	14
1929-06-02	Valencia	L 1-2	1454	1444	65.8%	17.4%	16.8%	-11.1	14
1929-06-02	@ Real Oviedo	W 2-1	1444	1454	16.8%	17.4%	65.8%	+11.1	17
1929-06-09	Celta Vigo	D 1-1	1491	1397	72.0%	16.9%	11.1%	-2.7	20
1929-06-09	@ Alaves	D 1-1	1397	1491	11.1%	16.9%	72.0%	+2.7	11
1929-06-09	Valencia	W 2-0	1408	1456	60.4%	17.6%	22.0%	+8.4	16
1929-06-09	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 0-2	1456	1408	22.0%	17.6%	60.4%	-8.4	17
1929-06-09	Real Betis	W 3-2	1449	1460	63.9%	17.4%	18.6%	+3.5	18
1929-06-09	@ Iberia	L 2-3	1460	1449	18.6%	17.4%	63.9%	-3.4	16
1929-06-09	Real Oviedo	W 5-2	1469	1443	67.2%	17.3%	15.5%	+6.5	21
1929-06-09	@ Sevilla	L 2-5	1443	1469	15.5%	17.3%	67.2%	-6.5	14
1929-06-09	Racing Club Madrid	W 5-1	1444	1394	69.0%	17.2%	13.8%	+8.7	16
1929-06-09	@ Sporting Gijon	L 1-5	1394	1444	13.8%	17.2%	69.0%	-8.7	11
1929-06-16	Sporting Gijon	D 1-1	1400	1453	59.8%	17.6%	22.6%	-1.6	12
1929-06-16	@ Celta Vigo	D 1-1	1453	1400	22.6%	17.6%	59.8%	+1.6	17
1929-06-16	Iberia	L 0-4	1386	1452	58.4%	17.6%	24.0%	-37.4	11
1929-06-16	@ Racing Club Madrid	W 4-0	1452	1386	24.0%	17.6%	58.4%	+37.4	20
1929-06-16	Sevilla	W 2-1	1457	1476	63.2%	17.5%	19.3%	+3.8	18
1929-06-16	@ Real Betis	L 1-2	1476	1457	19.3%	17.5%	63.2%	-3.8	21
1929-06-16	Deportivo La Coruna	W 3-1	1436	1417	66.6%	17.3%	16.0%	+5.5	16
1929-06-16	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-3	1417	1436	16.0%	17.3%	66.6%	-5.5	16
1929-06-16	Alaves	W 3-0	1447	1489	61.0%	17.5%	21.4%	+12.0	19
1929-06-16	@ Valencia	L 0-3	1489	1447	21.4%	17.5%	61.0%	-12.0	20
1929-06-23	Sevilla	D 1-1	1477	1472	65.4%	17.4%	17.2%	-2.1	21
1929-06-23	@ Alaves	D 1-1	1472	1477	17.2%	17.4%	65.4%	+2.1	22
1929-06-23	Real Oviedo	D 3-3	1398	1442	60.8%	17.5%	21.6%	-1.0	13
1929-06-23	@ Celta Vigo	D 3-3	1442	1398	21.6%	17.5%	60.8%	+1.0	17
1929-06-23	Deportivo La Coruna	W 2-1	1490	1411	71.0%	17.0%	12.0%	+2.4	22
1929-06-23	@ Iberia	L 1-2	1411	1490	12.0%	17.0%	71.0%	-2.4	16
1929-06-23	Racing Club Madrid	L 1-4	1460	1348	73.1%	16.8%	10.1%	-30.3	18
1929-06-23	@ Real Betis	W 4-1	1348	1460	10.1%	16.8%	73.1%	+30.3	13
1929-06-23	Valencia	W 3-1	1455	1459	64.6%	17.4%	18.0%	+6.1	19
1929-06-23	@ Sporting Gijon	L 1-3	1459	1455	18.0%	17.4%	64.6%	-6.1	19

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1929-06-23	10.11%	Racing Club Madrid	1348	4	@ Real Betis	1460	1
2	1929-06-02	16.84%	Valencia	1444	2	@ Real Oviedo	1454	1
3	1929-02-10	17.64%	Alaves	1441	2	@ Iberia	1441	1
4	1929-02-17	18.41%	Deportivo La Coruna	1445	4	@ Racing Club Madrid	1436	1
5	1929-03-31	19.14%	Alaves	1465	1	@ Celta Vigo	1448	0
6	1929-05-26	19.82%	Alaves	1468	1	@ Deportivo La Coruna	1443	0
7	1929-05-12	20.21%	Iberia	1437	2	@ Celta Vigo	1408	1
8	1929-04-21	20.22%	Real Betis	1425	2	@ Racing Club Madrid	1396	1
9	1929-06-16	24.01%	Iberia	1452	4	@ Racing Club Madrid	1386	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1929-06-16	37.39	Iberia	4	1452	24.01%	@ Racing Club Madrid	0	1386	58.38%	17.61%
2	1929-06-23	30.29	Racing Club Madrid	4	1348	10.11%	@ Real Betis	1	1460	73.11%	16.79%
3	1929-02-17	26.50	Deportivo La Coruna	4	1445	18.41%	@ Racing Club Madrid	1	1436	64.15%	17.44%
4	1929-04-28	25.70	@ Sporting Gijon	7	1435	61.76%	Deportivo La Coruna	0	1469	20.71%	17.53%
5	1929-06-02	25.04	@ Real Betis	8	1435	65.12%	Deportivo La Coruna	0	1433	17.48%	17.40%
6	1929-04-07	17.77	@ Sporting Gijon	5	1415	62.95%	Celta Vigo	0	1437	19.57%	17.49%
7	1929-05-30	17.75	@ Alaves	6	1479	66.48%	Sporting Gijon	0	1461	16.19%	17.33%
8	1929-03-03	16.67	@ Celta Vigo	6	1435	67.61%	Racing Club Madrid	0	1403	15.13%	17.27%
9	1929-03-31	16.09	@ Racing Club Madrid	4	1383	60.32%	Sporting Gijon	0	1431	22.12%	17.57%
10	1929-04-21	14.49	@ Real Oviedo	5	1444	67.04%	Celta Vigo	0	1419	15.66%	17.30%
11	1929-06-16	11.98	@ Valencia	3	1447	61.00%	Alaves	0	1489	21.45%	17.55%
12	1929-03-31	11.34	Alaves	1	1465	19.14%	@ Celta Vigo	0	1448	63.39%	17.47%
13	1929-05-26	11.21	Alaves	1	1468	19.82%	@ Deportivo La Coruna	0	1443	62.68%	17.50%
14	1929-06-02	11.10	Valencia	2	1444	16.84%	@ Real Oviedo	1	1454	65.80%	17.37%
15	1929-02-10	10.95	Alaves	2	1441	17.64%	@ Iberia	1	1441	64.96%	17.41%
16	1929-04-21	10.50	Real Betis	2	1425	20.22%	@ Racing Club Madrid	1	1396	62.27%	17.51%
17	1929-05-12	10.50	Iberia	2	1437	20.21%	@ Celta Vigo	1	1408	62.29%	17.51%
18	1929-02-17	9.67	@ Sporting Gijon	6	1438	64.09%	Real Betis	2	1447	18.47%	17.44%
19	1929-02-24	9.54	@ Real Oviedo	6	1441	64.38%	Sporting Gijon	2	1447	18.19%	17.43%
20	1929-04-21	9.17	@ Deportivo La Coruna	3	1460	66.69%	Iberia	0	1440	15.99%	17.32%
21	1929-04-07	9.15	@ Sevilla	3	1455	66.74%	Real Betis	0	1434	15.94%	17.32%
22	1929-06-09	8.72	@ Sporting Gijon	5	1444	69.01%	Racing Club Madrid	1	1394	13.82%	17.17%
23	1929-06-09	8.44	@ Deportivo La Coruna	2	1408	60.43%	Valencia	0	1456	22.00%	17.56%
24	1929-03-10	7.88	@ Iberia	2	1425	62.10%	Real Oviedo	0	1456	20.38%	17.51%
25	1929-05-05	6.87	@ Real Betis	3	1428	61.94%	Sporting Gijon	1	1461	20.54%	17.52%