1933-34 Segunda División Season

89 games

Final

Promoted

Sevilla

27 pts

Atletico Madrid · 24 pts

Relegated

Alaves

withdrew

Biggest Overachiever

Sevilla

7.17 points above expected

25 points · 17.83 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Alaves

12.81 points below expected

3 points · 15.81 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Sevilla Promoted	17	10	5	2	25	56	27	+29	17.83	+7.17
2	Atletico Madrid Promoted	18	11	2	5	24	45	28	+17	19.27	+4.73
3	Real Murcia	18	10	1	7	21	41	31	+10	18.02	+2.98
4	Celta Vigo	18	9	2	7	20	44	28	+16	17.53	+2.47
5	Osasuna	18	9	0	9	18	47	39	+8	17.79	+0.21
6	Sporting Gijon	18	8	2	8	18	30	38	-8	18.09	-0.09
7	Deportivo La Coruna	18	7	3	8	17	35	38	-3	17.98	-0.98
8	Real Union	18	7	2	9	16	31	43	-12	18.10	-2.10
9	Sabadell	18	5	4	9	14	31	45	-14	17.58	-3.58
10	Alaves* Withdrew	17	1	3	13	3	18	61	-43	15.81	-12.81

* Point deductions: Alaves (-2 pts)

Notes

Although there was no intention to relegate any teams, Alaves withdrew from the league after the conclusion of the season due to financial difficulties.

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Sevilla	1647	25	18.83	+6.17	99.7%	9	15	17	19	20	23	28
Atletico Madrid	1609	24	19.27	+4.73	98.0%	11	16	18	19	21	23	30
Real Murcia	1563	21	18.02	+2.98	93.9%	8	14	17	18	19	22	27
Celta Vigo	1557	20	17.53	+2.47	90.5%	9	14	16	18	19	21	27
Osasuna	1552	18	17.79	+0.21	62.3%	9	14	16	18	19	22	27
Real Union	1510	16	18.10	-2.10	23.3%	8	14	17	18	20	22	27
Sporting Gijon	1499	18	18.09	-0.09	57.5%	9	14	17	18	20	22	27
Deportivo La Coruna	1498	17	17.98	-0.98	41.2%	8	14	16	18	19	22	28
Sabadell	1462	14	17.58	-3.58	9.4%	9	14	16	18	19	21	27
Alaves	1277	3	16.81	-13.81	0.0%	7	13	15	17	18	21	25

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ALA	AM	CV	DLC	OSA	RM	RU	SAB	SEV	SG
Alaves	—	0-0-2 2.58	1-0-1 2.81	0-1-1 2.51	0-0-2 2.82	0-0-2 2.75	0-1-1 2.72	0-1-1 2.81	0-0-1 0.27	0-0-2 2.76
Atletico Madrid	2-0-0 3.17	—	1-0-1 3.27	2-0-0 3.05	1-0-1 3.10	1-1-0 3.01	1-0-1 3.00	2-0-0 3.17	0-1-1 2.95	1-0-1 3.03
Celta Vigo	1-0-1 2.94	1-0-1 2.47	—	1-0-1 2.80	1-0-1 2.88	1-0-1 2.81	2-0-0 2.80	1-1-0 2.90	1-0-1 2.72	0-1-1 2.82
Deportivo La Coruna	1-1-0 3.23	0-0-2 2.70	1-0-1 2.94	—	1-0-1 2.88	1-0-1 2.81	1-0-1 2.79	1-1-0 2.85	0-1-1 2.80	1-0-1 2.84
Osasuna	2-0-0 2.92	1-0-1 2.65	1-0-1 2.86	1-0-1 2.87	—	1-0-1 2.84	1-0-1 2.84	1-0-1 2.90	0-0-2 2.83	1-0-1 2.77
Real Murcia	2-0-0 3.00	0-1-1 2.74	1-0-1 2.94	1-0-1 2.94	1-0-1 2.90	—	2-0-0 2.78	1-0-1 2.93	1-0-1 2.79	1-0-1 2.89
Real Union	1-1-0 3.03	1-0-1 2.75	0-0-2 2.94	1-0-1 2.95	1-0-1 2.90	0-0-2 2.96	—	1-0-1 2.93	0-1-1 2.73	2-0-0 2.84
Sabadell	1-1-0 2.94	0-0-2 2.58	0-1-1 2.85	0-1-1 2.89	1-0-1 2.84	1-0-1 2.81	1-0-1 2.82	—	0-1-1 2.58	1-0-1 2.86
Sevilla	1-0-0 2.60	1-1-0 2.79	1-0-1 3.02	1-1-0 2.95	2-0-0 2.92	1-0-1 2.95	1-1-0 3.02	1-1-0 3.17	—	1-1-0 2.93
Sporting Gijon	2-0-0 2.99	1-0-1 2.72	1-1-0 2.92	1-0-1 2.91	1-0-1 2.97	1-0-1 2.86	0-0-2 2.91	1-0-1 2.88	0-1-1 2.82	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.78	+5.0
Allowed	0.95	-5.8
Differential	0.92	+2.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	1.12%	2.25%	2.81%	3.37%	3.93%	3.93%	17.42%
1	2.25%	4.49%	7.30%	7.30%	2.25%	2.81%	26.40%
2	2.81%	7.30%	4.49%	3.37%	0.56%	2.25%	20.79%
3	3.37%	7.30%	3.37%	2.25%	1.12%	—	17.42%
4	3.93%	2.25%	0.56%	1.12%	—	—	7.87%
5+	3.93%	2.81%	2.25%	—	—	1.12%	10.11%
Total	17.42%	26.40%	20.79%	17.42%	7.87%	10.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.12	2.12	+0.00
SD	1.81	1.81	3.01
CV	0.85	0.85	—
Max	10	10	+9
Min	0	0	-9

Games Played: 89

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.76%	11.76%	—	5.88%	17.65%	47.06%
1	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
2	—	5.88%	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	41.18%
3	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	23.53%	23.53%	5.88%	17.65%	29.41%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.06	3.59	-2.53
SD	1.09	2.60	2.76
CV	1.03	0.72	—
Max	3	10	+1
Min	0	1	-8

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
1	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
2	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	22.22%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	11.11%	44.44%	27.78%	11.11%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.50	1.56	+0.94
SD	1.65	1.04	2.36
CV	0.66	0.67	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
1	—	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	—	38.89%
2	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
3	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	27.78%	27.78%	16.67%	16.67%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.44	1.56	+0.89
SD	2.15	1.38	3.29
CV	0.88	0.89	—
Max	8	4	+8
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	33.33%
2	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
4	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	22.22%	22.22%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.94	2.11	-0.17
SD	1.35	2.17	3.19
CV	0.69	1.03	—
Max	4	9	+4
Min	0	0	-9

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
1	5.56%	—	—	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	38.89%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	27.78%	16.67%	5.56%	27.78%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.61	2.17	+0.44
SD	2.50	1.89	3.76
CV	0.96	0.87	—
Max	10	6	+8
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
1	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
2	—	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	33.33%
3	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	16.67%	38.89%	16.67%	22.22%	—	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.28	1.72	+0.56
SD	1.71	1.49	2.73
CV	0.75	0.86	—
Max	6	6	+6
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	16.67%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	16.67%	—	5.56%	38.89%
2	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
Total	—	33.33%	22.22%	27.78%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.72	2.39	-0.67
SD	1.41	1.33	2.06
CV	0.82	0.56	—
Max	5	5	+2
Min	0	1	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	22.22%
1	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	33.33%
2	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	11.11%	16.67%	33.33%	16.67%	5.56%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.72	2.50	-0.78
SD	1.56	1.79	2.80
CV	0.91	0.72	—
Max	5	6	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%	—	11.76%
1	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
2	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	17.65%
3	—	17.65%	—	11.76%	—	—	29.41%
4	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
5+	5.88%	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	29.41%
Total	23.53%	35.29%	17.65%	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.29	1.59	+1.71
SD	2.26	1.46	2.85
CV	0.69	0.92	—
Max	9	5	+9
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%
1	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	—	5.56%	5.56%	44.44%
2	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	5.56%	22.22%	16.67%	5.56%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.67	2.11	-0.44
SD	1.37	1.97	2.57
CV	0.82	0.93	—
Max	4	6	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Sevilla	25	17.83	+7.17
2	Atletico Madrid	24	19.27	+4.73
3	Real Murcia	21	18.02	+2.98
4	Celta Vigo	20	17.53	+2.47
5	Osasuna	18	17.79	+0.21

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Alaves	3	15.81	-12.81
2	Sabadell	14	17.58	-3.58
3	Real Union	16	18.10	-2.10
4	Deportivo La Coruna	17	17.98	-0.98
5	Sporting Gijon	18	18.09	-0.09

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Real Union	3	Dec 31 – Jan 14	1 in 266
2	Atletico Madrid	3	Dec 24 – Jan 7	1 in 112
3	Sevilla	4	Jan 28 – Feb 25	1 in 56
4	Real Murcia	3	Jan 21 – Feb 4	1 in 37
5	Celta Vigo	3	Feb 11 – Feb 25	1 in 35

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Alaves	11	Dec 3 – Feb 18	1 in 817,204
2	Atletico Madrid	3	Feb 11 – Feb 25	1 in 61
3	Real Union	3	Feb 11 – Feb 25	1 in 30
4	Sporting Gijon	2	Dec 24 – Dec 31	1 in 30
5	Osasuna	2	Nov 5 – Nov 12	1 in 26

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Sevilla	10	Nov 5 – Jan 7	1 in 1,047
2	Atletico Madrid	9	Dec 10 – Feb 4	1 in 436
3	Real Murcia	6	Dec 31 – Feb 4	1 in 51
4	Sporting Gijon	6	Nov 12 – Dec 17	1 in 35
5	Real Union	4	Dec 24 – Jan 14	1 in 28

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Alaves	13	Dec 3 – Mar 4	1 in 9,751
2	Atletico Madrid	3	Feb 11 – Feb 25	1 in 9
3	Sabadell	5	Dec 10 – Jan 7	1 in 7
4	Sevilla	3	Dec 10 – Dec 24	1 in 6
5	Real Union	3	Feb 11 – Feb 25	1 in 6

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Sevilla	20.73%	15.86%	13.10%	11.26%	9.61%	7.94%	7.01%	6.20%	4.88%	3.41%
Atletico Madrid	22.91%	16.95%	13.11%	11.13%	9.81%	7.75%	6.69%	4.87%	4.06%	2.72%
Real Murcia	8.89%	10.42%	11.08%	11.57%	11.16%	10.45%	10.41%	9.69%	9.18%	7.15%
Celta Vigo	7.98%	8.84%	10.26%	9.84%	11.23%	10.34%	10.46%	10.42%	10.31%	10.32%
Osasuna	8.06%	9.18%	10.30%	10.22%	10.88%	10.78%	10.09%	10.82%	10.04%	9.63%
Sporting Gijon	7.58%	8.88%	10.48%	10.50%	10.86%	11.56%	11.28%	10.65%	10.21%	8.00%
Deportivo La Coruna	7.95%	9.81%	9.89%	10.33%	10.58%	10.69%	10.88%	10.38%	10.33%	9.16%
Real Union	7.38%	9.12%	9.26%	10.40%	9.85%	11.18%	11.60%	11.60%	10.33%	9.28%
Sabadell	5.72%	6.90%	7.69%	8.63%	8.84%	10.56%	11.43%	12.16%	13.77%	14.30%
Alaves	2.80%	4.04%	4.83%	6.12%	7.18%	8.75%	10.15%	13.21%	16.89%	26.03%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+57.30%

Strong Edge

71.91%13.48%14.61%

Elo Value

Home Edge

127 Elo

0.008 goals per Elo point

0226.54400

Scoring Tilt

Expected +1.79 goals

+1.89 goals

Strong Home

-2+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

7.3

Wide Open

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

21%

Sevilla, 2nd of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.06/gm

Photo Finish

00.070.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 1.86 * Some Luck: 1.86 to 2.79 * Lucky: 2.79 to 3.72 * Wild Swing: 3.72 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.24 * Close: 2.24 to 3.36 * Off: 3.36 to 4.47 * Way Off: 4.47 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1 * A Surprise: 1 to 1.6 * Several Surprises: 1.6 to 2.2 * Many Surprises: 2.2 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.82 points

Wild Swing

02.336

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.00

Pinpoint

02.806

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

99.67%

Sevilla

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

0.00%

Alaves

050

Season Outliers

Expected

3 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Unexpected Relegations

Expected 1.0

1 of 1

A Surprise

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.17

Even

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.45

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

59%

Even

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

89%

Strong Edge

50%87%100%

Close Games

Expected

42%

Frequent

0%36%100%

Blowouts

Expected

37%

Very Frequent

0%42%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.45

Highly Predictable

00.312

Matchup Imbalance

0.87

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

4.18

Chaotic

01.002

Repeatability

-0.55

Weak Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

15%

Chalky

0%6%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

15%

Solid Favorites

0%6%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.05 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.05 to 0.08 * Above Noise: 0.08 to 0.11 * Well Above Noise: 0.11 and up.

Probability calibration

<0.01

Miscalibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.31

Very Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.104

Above Noise

00.0540.15

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Direct promotion	Same level
Atletico Madrid	39.86%	60.14%
Sevilla	36.59%	63.41%
Real Murcia	19.31%	80.69%
Deportivo La Coruna	17.76%	82.24%
Osasuna	17.24%	82.76%
Celta Vigo	16.82%	83.18%
Real Union	16.50%	83.50%
Sporting Gijon	16.46%	83.54%
Sabadell	12.62%	87.38%
Alaves	6.84%	93.16%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1933-11-05	Deportivo La Coruna	W 3-1	1541	1517	82.6%	12.7%	4.7%	+3.7	2
1933-11-05	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-3	1517	1541	4.7%	12.7%	82.6%	-3.7	0
1933-11-05	Real Murcia	W 3-1	1472	1515	80.5%	12.8%	6.8%	+5.3	2
1933-11-05	@ Celta Vigo	L 1-3	1515	1472	6.8%	12.8%	80.5%	-5.3	0
1933-11-05	Sevilla	L 1-3	1506	1480	82.6%	12.7%	4.7%	-56.4	0
1933-11-05	@ Osasuna	W 3-1	1480	1506	4.7%	12.7%	82.6%	+56.4	2
1933-11-05	Alaves	D 1-1	1537	1554	81.4%	12.8%	5.9%	-8.0	1
1933-11-05	@ Real Union	D 1-1	1554	1537	5.9%	12.8%	81.4%	+8.0	1
1933-11-05	Sporting Gijon	W 5-2	1532	1520	82.2%	12.7%	5.0%	+4.8	2
1933-11-05	@ Sabadell	L 2-5	1520	1532	5.0%	12.7%	82.2%	-4.8	0
1933-11-12	Sabadell	D 2-2	1562	1537	82.6%	12.7%	4.7%	-6.2	2
1933-11-12	@ Alaves	D 2-2	1537	1562	4.7%	12.7%	82.6%	+6.2	3
1933-11-12	Real Union	W 4-0	1514	1529	81.4%	12.8%	5.8%	+10.0	2
1933-11-12	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 0-4	1529	1514	5.8%	12.8%	81.4%	-10.0	1
1933-11-12	Atletico Madrid	L 2-3	1510	1544	80.7%	12.8%	6.5%	-30.1	0
1933-11-12	@ Real Murcia	W 3-2	1544	1510	6.5%	12.8%	80.7%	+30.1	4
1933-11-12	Celta Vigo	W 3-1	1536	1478	83.5%	12.7%	3.9%	+3.1	4
1933-11-12	@ Sevilla	L 1-3	1478	1536	3.9%	12.7%	83.5%	-3.1	2
1933-11-12	Osasuna	W 3-2	1515	1449	83.6%	12.6%	3.7%	+1.6	2
1933-11-12	@ Sporting Gijon	L 2-3	1449	1515	3.7%	12.6%	83.6%	-1.6	0
1933-11-19	Sporting Gijon	D 1-1	1475	1517	80.5%	12.8%	6.8%	-7.8	3
1933-11-19	@ Celta Vigo	D 1-1	1517	1475	6.8%	12.8%	80.5%	+7.8	3
1933-11-19	Alaves	W 10-2	1448	1556	77.6%	12.9%	9.6%	+21.0	2
1933-11-19	@ Osasuna	L 2-10	1556	1448	9.6%	12.9%	77.6%	-20.9	2
1933-11-19	Atletico Madrid	W 3-1	1519	1575	79.9%	12.8%	7.2%	+5.7	3
1933-11-19	@ Real Union	L 1-3	1575	1519	7.2%	12.8%	79.9%	-5.7	4
1933-11-19	Deportivo La Coruna	D 1-1	1543	1524	82.5%	12.7%	4.8%	-8.3	4
1933-11-19	@ Sabadell	D 1-1	1524	1543	4.8%	12.7%	82.5%	+8.3	3
1933-11-19	Real Murcia	W 6-2	1539	1479	83.5%	12.7%	3.9%	+4.7	6
1933-11-19	@ Sevilla	L 2-6	1479	1539	3.9%	12.7%	83.5%	-4.7	0
1933-11-26	Celta Vigo	W 2-1	1535	1467	83.7%	12.6%	3.7%	+1.7	4
1933-11-26	@ Alaves	L 1-2	1467	1535	3.7%	12.6%	83.7%	-1.7	3
1933-11-26	Sabadell	W 3-1	1569	1535	82.9%	12.7%	4.5%	+3.5	6
1933-11-26	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-3	1535	1569	4.5%	12.7%	82.9%	-3.5	4
1933-11-26	Osasuna	W 4-0	1532	1469	83.6%	12.6%	3.8%	+6.6	5
1933-11-26	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 0-4	1469	1532	3.8%	12.6%	83.6%	-6.6	2
1933-11-26	Real Union	W 3-1	1475	1525	80.2%	12.8%	7.0%	+5.5	2
1933-11-26	@ Real Murcia	L 1-3	1525	1475	7.0%	12.8%	80.2%	-5.5	3
1933-11-26	Sevilla	D 0-0	1525	1544	81.3%	12.8%	5.9%	-9.0	4
1933-11-26	@ Sporting Gijon	D 0-0	1544	1525	5.9%	12.8%	81.3%	+9.0	7
1933-12-03	Deportivo La Coruna	W 3-2	1465	1538	79.2%	12.8%	8.0%	+3.4	5
1933-12-03	@ Celta Vigo	L 2-3	1538	1465	8.0%	12.8%	79.2%	-3.4	5
1933-12-03	Atletico Madrid	W 2-1	1462	1572	77.5%	12.9%	9.7%	+4.3	4
1933-12-03	@ Osasuna	L 1-2	1572	1462	9.7%	12.9%	77.5%	-4.3	6
1933-12-03	Real Union	W 5-1	1531	1519	82.2%	12.7%	5.0%	+7.2	6
1933-12-03	@ Sabadell	L 1-5	1519	1531	5.0%	12.7%	82.2%	-7.2	3
1933-12-03	Alaves	W 4-0	1553	1536	82.4%	12.7%	4.9%	+8.5	9
1933-12-03	@ Sevilla	L 0-4	1536	1553	4.9%	12.7%	82.4%	-8.5	4
1933-12-03	Real Murcia	W 3-0	1516	1480	82.9%	12.7%	4.4%	+5.8	6
1933-12-03	@ Sporting Gijon	L 0-3	1480	1516	4.4%	12.7%	82.9%	-5.8	2
1933-12-10	Sporting Gijon	L 3-4	1528	1522	82.1%	12.7%	5.2%	-29.9	4
1933-12-10	@ Alaves	W 4-3	1522	1528	5.2%	12.7%	82.1%	+29.9	8
1933-12-10	Celta Vigo	W 4-0	1568	1468	84.3%	12.6%	3.1%	+5.4	8
1933-12-10	@ Atletico Madrid	L 0-4	1468	1568	3.1%	12.6%	84.3%	-5.4	5
1933-12-10	Sevilla	D 3-3	1535	1561	81.0%	12.8%	6.2%	-4.9	6
1933-12-10	@ Deportivo La Coruna	D 3-3	1561	1535	6.2%	12.8%	81.0%	+4.9	10
1933-12-10	Sabadell	W 3-0	1474	1538	79.6%	12.8%	7.6%	+9.9	4
1933-12-10	@ Real Murcia	L 0-3	1538	1474	7.6%	12.8%	79.6%	-9.9	6
1933-12-10	Osasuna	W 3-1	1512	1466	83.2%	12.7%	4.2%	+3.3	5
1933-12-10	@ Real Union	L 1-3	1466	1512	4.2%	12.7%	83.2%	-3.3	4
1933-12-17	Real Murcia	L 2-3	1498	1484	82.3%	12.7%	5.0%	-30.7	4
1933-12-17	@ Alaves	W 3-2	1484	1498	5.0%	12.7%	82.3%	+30.7	6
1933-12-17	Real Union	W 3-0	1463	1515	80.1%	12.8%	7.1%	+9.3	7
1933-12-17	@ Celta Vigo	L 0-3	1515	1463	7.1%	12.8%	80.1%	-9.3	5
1933-12-17	Sabadell	W 6-0	1463	1529	79.5%	12.8%	7.6%	+19.1	6
1933-12-17	@ Osasuna	L 0-6	1529	1463	7.6%	12.8%	79.5%	-19.1	6
1933-12-17	Atletico Madrid	D 3-3	1566	1573	81.7%	12.8%	5.6%	-5.0	11
1933-12-17	@ Sevilla	D 3-3	1573	1566	5.6%	12.8%	81.7%	+5.0	9
1933-12-17	Deportivo La Coruna	W 4-0	1552	1530	82.5%	12.7%	4.8%	+8.2	10
1933-12-17	@ Sporting Gijon	L 0-4	1530	1552	4.8%	12.7%	82.5%	-8.2	6
1933-12-24	Sporting Gijon	W 5-1	1578	1560	82.4%	12.7%	4.9%	+7.0	11
1933-12-24	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-5	1560	1578	4.9%	12.7%	82.4%	-7.0	10
1933-12-24	Alaves	W 2-0	1522	1467	83.4%	12.7%	4.0%	+3.6	8
1933-12-24	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 0-2	1467	1522	4.0%	12.7%	83.4%	-3.6	4
1933-12-24	Real Murcia	W 1-0	1482	1515	80.8%	12.8%	6.4%	+3.1	8
1933-12-24	@ Osasuna	L 0-1	1515	1482	6.4%	12.8%	80.8%	-3.1	6
1933-12-24	Sevilla	D 5-5	1506	1561	80.0%	12.8%	7.2%	-3.8	6
1933-12-24	@ Real Union	D 5-5	1561	1506	7.2%	12.8%	80.0%	+3.8	12
1933-12-24	Celta Vigo	D 1-1	1509	1472	82.9%	12.7%	4.4%	-8.4	7
1933-12-24	@ Sabadell	D 1-1	1472	1509	4.4%	12.7%	82.9%	+8.4	8
1933-12-31	Atletico Madrid	L 2-5	1464	1585	76.8%	12.9%	10.3%	-63.8	4
1933-12-31	@ Alaves	W 5-2	1585	1464	10.3%	12.9%	76.8%	+63.8	13
1933-12-31	Osasuna	W 4-1	1481	1485	81.8%	12.8%	5.5%	+6.1	10
1933-12-31	@ Celta Vigo	L 1-4	1485	1481	5.5%	12.8%	81.8%	-6.1	8
1933-12-31	Deportivo La Coruna	W 2-1	1512	1526	81.5%	12.8%	5.8%	+2.6	8
1933-12-31	@ Real Murcia	L 1-2	1526	1512	5.8%	12.8%	81.5%	-2.6	8
1933-12-31	Sabadell	W 5-1	1565	1501	83.6%	12.6%	3.8%	+5.4	14
1933-12-31	@ Sevilla	L 1-5	1501	1565	3.8%	12.6%	83.6%	-5.4	7
1933-12-31	Real Union	L 1-2	1553	1502	83.3%	12.7%	4.1%	-32.8	10
1933-12-31	@ Sporting Gijon	W 2-1	1502	1553	4.1%	12.7%	83.3%	+32.8	8
1934-01-07	Real Union	L 2-4	1400	1535	76.1%	12.9%	11.0%	-46.1	4
1934-01-07	@ Alaves	W 4-2	1535	1400	11.0%	12.9%	76.1%	+46.1	10
1934-01-07	Atletico Madrid	L 1-2	1523	1649	76.6%	12.9%	10.5%	-30.0	8
1934-01-07	@ Deportivo La Coruna	W 2-1	1649	1523	10.5%	12.9%	76.6%	+30.0	15
1934-01-07	Celta Vigo	W 3-1	1515	1487	82.7%	12.7%	4.6%	+3.6	10
1934-01-07	@ Real Murcia	L 1-3	1487	1515	4.6%	12.7%	82.7%	-3.6	10
1934-01-07	Osasuna	W 5-1	1571	1479	84.2%	12.6%	3.2%	+4.7	16
1934-01-07	@ Sevilla	L 1-5	1479	1571	3.2%	12.6%	84.2%	-4.7	8
1934-01-07	Sabadell	W 4-3	1520	1496	82.6%	12.7%	4.7%	+2.0	12
1934-01-07	@ Sporting Gijon	L 3-4	1496	1520	4.7%	12.7%	82.6%	-2.0	7
1934-01-14	Real Murcia	D 2-2	1679	1518	85.4%	12.4%	2.2%	-6.7	16
1934-01-14	@ Atletico Madrid	D 2-2	1518	1679	2.2%	12.4%	85.4%	+6.7	11
1934-01-14	Sevilla	W 4-0	1483	1575	78.4%	12.9%	8.8%	+15.0	12
1934-01-14	@ Celta Vigo	L 0-4	1575	1483	8.8%	12.9%	78.4%	-15.0	16
1934-01-14	Sporting Gijon	W 6-0	1474	1522	80.3%	12.8%	6.9%	+17.4	10
1934-01-14	@ Osasuna	L 0-6	1522	1474	6.9%	12.8%	80.3%	-17.4	12
1934-01-14	Deportivo La Coruna	W 2-1	1581	1493	84.1%	12.6%	3.3%	+1.5	12
1934-01-14	@ Real Union	L 1-2	1493	1581	3.3%	12.6%	84.1%	-1.5	8
1934-01-14	Alaves	W 1-0	1494	1354	85.0%	12.5%	2.5%	+1.2	9
1934-01-14	@ Sabadell	L 0-1	1354	1494	2.5%	12.5%	85.0%	-1.2	4
1934-01-21	Osasuna	L 0-2	1353	1492	75.9%	12.9%	11.2%	-59.3	4
1934-01-21	@ Alaves	W 2-0	1492	1353	11.2%	12.9%	75.9%	+59.3	12
1934-01-21	Real Union	W 3-1	1672	1583	84.1%	12.6%	3.3%	+2.6	18
1934-01-21	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-3	1583	1672	3.3%	12.6%	84.1%	-2.6	12
1934-01-21	Sabadell	W 2-0	1491	1495	81.8%	12.8%	5.5%	+5.0	10
1934-01-21	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 0-2	1495	1491	5.5%	12.8%	81.8%	-5.0	9
1934-01-21	Sevilla	W 2-1	1525	1560	80.7%	12.8%	6.5%	+2.9	13
1934-01-21	@ Real Murcia	L 1-2	1560	1525	6.5%	12.8%	80.7%	-2.9	16
1934-01-21	Celta Vigo	W 2-0	1505	1498	82.1%	12.7%	5.2%	+4.7	14
1934-01-21	@ Sporting Gijon	L 0-2	1498	1505	5.2%	12.7%	82.1%	-4.7	12
1934-01-28	Alaves	W 8-0	1493	1293	85.9%	12.4%	1.8%	+5.9	14
1934-01-28	@ Celta Vigo	L 0-8	1293	1493	1.8%	12.4%	85.9%	-5.9	4
1934-01-28	Deportivo La Coruna	W 4-1	1551	1496	83.4%	12.7%	4.0%	+4.4	14
1934-01-28	@ Osasuna	L 1-4	1496	1551	4.0%	12.7%	83.4%	-4.4	10
1934-01-28	Real Murcia	L 1-2	1580	1528	83.3%	12.7%	4.0%	-32.8	12
1934-01-28	@ Real Union	W 2-1	1528	1580	4.0%	12.7%	83.3%	+32.8	15
1934-01-28	Atletico Madrid	L 1-2	1490	1675	72.9%	12.9%	14.2%	-28.4	9
1934-01-28	@ Sabadell	W 2-1	1675	1490	14.2%	12.9%	72.9%	+28.4	20
1934-01-28	Sporting Gijon	W 2-1	1557	1509	83.2%	12.7%	4.1%	+1.9	18
1934-01-28	@ Sevilla	L 1-2	1509	1557	4.1%	12.7%	83.2%	-1.9	14
1934-02-04	Osasuna	W 3-1	1704	1556	85.2%	12.5%	2.4%	+1.9	22
1934-02-04	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-3	1556	1704	2.4%	12.5%	85.2%	-1.9	14
1934-02-04	Celta Vigo	W 4-1	1492	1499	81.7%	12.8%	5.6%	+6.2	12
1934-02-04	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 1-4	1499	1492	5.6%	12.8%	81.7%	-6.2	14
1934-02-04	Sporting Gijon	W 3-0	1561	1507	83.3%	12.7%	4.0%	+5.3	17
1934-02-04	@ Real Murcia	L 0-3	1507	1561	4.0%	12.7%	83.3%	-5.3	14
1934-02-04	Sabadell	W 3-2	1547	1461	84.0%	12.6%	3.4%	+1.5	14
1934-02-04	@ Real Union	L 2-3	1461	1547	3.4%	12.6%	84.0%	-1.5	9
1934-02-11	Atletico Madrid	W 4-0	1493	1705	70.9%	13.0%	16.2%	+26.8	16
1934-02-11	@ Celta Vigo	L 0-4	1705	1493	16.2%	13.0%	70.9%	-26.9	22
1934-02-11	Real Union	W 3-0	1554	1549	82.0%	12.7%	5.2%	+6.9	16
1934-02-11	@ Osasuna	L 0-3	1549	1554	5.2%	12.7%	82.0%	-6.9	14
1934-02-11	Real Murcia	W 3-0	1460	1566	77.7%	12.9%	9.5%	+12.3	11
1934-02-11	@ Sabadell	L 0-3	1566	1460	9.5%	12.9%	77.7%	-12.3	17
1934-02-11	Deportivo La Coruna	W 9-0	1559	1498	83.5%	12.7%	3.8%	+14.3	20
1934-02-11	@ Sevilla	L 0-9	1498	1559	3.8%	12.7%	83.5%	-14.3	12
1934-02-11	Alaves	W 1-0	1502	1287	86.0%	12.3%	1.6%	+0.8	16
1934-02-11	@ Sporting Gijon	L 0-1	1287	1502	1.6%	12.3%	86.0%	-0.8	4
1934-02-18	Sevilla	L 0-2	1679	1574	84.4%	12.6%	3.0%	-66.5	22
1934-02-18	@ Atletico Madrid	W 2-0	1574	1679	3.0%	12.6%	84.4%	+66.5	22
1934-02-18	Sporting Gijon	W 4-1	1484	1503	81.3%	12.8%	5.9%	+6.6	14
1934-02-18	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 1-4	1503	1484	5.9%	12.8%	81.3%	-6.6	16
1934-02-18	Alaves	W 6-0	1554	1287	86.6%	12.2%	1.2%	+3.1	19
1934-02-18	@ Real Murcia	L 0-6	1287	1554	1.2%	12.2%	86.6%	-3.1	4
1934-02-18	Celta Vigo	L 1-2	1542	1520	82.5%	12.7%	4.8%	-32.5	14
1934-02-18	@ Real Union	W 2-1	1520	1542	4.8%	12.7%	82.5%	+32.5	18
1934-02-18	Osasuna	W 3-2	1472	1561	78.5%	12.8%	8.6%	+3.7	13
1934-02-18	@ Sabadell	L 2-3	1561	1472	8.6%	12.8%	78.5%	-3.7	16
1934-02-25	Deportivo La Coruna	D 2-2	1284	1490	71.3%	12.9%	15.8%	-4.3	5
1934-02-25	@ Alaves	D 2-2	1490	1284	15.8%	12.9%	71.3%	+4.2	15
1934-02-25	Sabadell	W 6-0	1553	1476	83.9%	12.6%	3.5%	+8.9	20
1934-02-25	@ Celta Vigo	L 0-6	1476	1553	3.5%	12.6%	83.9%	-8.9	13
1934-02-25	Osasuna	W 6-1	1557	1557	81.9%	12.7%	5.4%	+9.5	21
1934-02-25	@ Real Murcia	L 1-6	1557	1557	5.4%	12.7%	81.9%	-9.5	16
1934-02-25	Real Union	W 3-1	1640	1509	84.9%	12.5%	2.6%	+2.1	24
1934-02-25	@ Sevilla	L 1-3	1509	1640	2.6%	12.5%	84.9%	-2.1	14
1934-02-25	Atletico Madrid	W 1-0	1496	1612	77.2%	12.9%	9.9%	+4.7	18
1934-02-25	@ Sporting Gijon	L 0-1	1612	1496	9.9%	12.9%	77.2%	-4.7	22
1934-03-04	Alaves	W 5-0	1607	1279	87.1%	12.0%	0.9%	+1.8	24
1934-03-04	@ Atletico Madrid	L 0-5	1279	1607	0.9%	12.0%	87.1%	-1.8	5
1934-03-04	Real Murcia	W 2-1	1495	1566	79.3%	12.8%	7.9%	+3.5	17
1934-03-04	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 1-2	1566	1495	7.9%	12.8%	79.3%	-3.5	21
1934-03-04	Celta Vigo	W 3-1	1548	1561	81.5%	12.8%	5.8%	+4.5	18
1934-03-04	@ Osasuna	L 1-3	1561	1548	5.8%	12.8%	81.5%	-4.5	20
1934-03-04	Sporting Gijon	W 2-1	1507	1501	82.1%	12.7%	5.2%	+2.4	16
1934-03-04	@ Real Union	L 1-2	1501	1507	5.2%	12.7%	82.1%	-2.4	18
1934-03-04	Sevilla	D 2-2	1467	1642	73.6%	12.9%	13.5%	-4.6	14
1934-03-04	@ Sabadell	D 2-2	1642	1467	13.5%	12.9%	73.6%	+4.6	25

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1934-02-18	3.01%	Sevilla	1574	2	@ Atletico Madrid	1679	0
2	1934-01-28	4.03%	Real Murcia	1528	2	@ Real Union	1580	1
3	1933-12-31	4.06%	Real Union	1502	2	@ Sporting Gijon	1553	1
4	1933-11-05	4.66%	Sevilla	1480	3	@ Osasuna	1506	1
5	1934-02-18	4.77%	Celta Vigo	1520	2	@ Real Union	1542	1
6	1933-12-17	4.98%	Real Murcia	1484	3	@ Alaves	1498	2
7	1933-12-10	5.18%	Sporting Gijon	1522	4	@ Alaves	1528	3
8	1933-11-12	6.48%	Atletico Madrid	1544	3	@ Real Murcia	1510	2
9	1933-12-31	10.26%	Atletico Madrid	1585	5	@ Alaves	1464	2
10	1934-01-07	10.51%	Atletico Madrid	1649	2	@ Deportivo La Coruna	1523	1
11	1934-01-07	11.00%	Real Union	1535	4	@ Alaves	1400	2
12	1934-01-21	11.24%	Osasuna	1492	2	@ Alaves	1353	0
13	1934-01-28	14.19%	Atletico Madrid	1675	2	@ Sabadell	1490	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1934-02-18	66.55	Sevilla	2	1574	3.01%	@ Atletico Madrid	0	1679	84.43%	12.56%
2	1933-12-31	63.79	Atletico Madrid	5	1585	10.26%	@ Alaves	2	1464	76.85%	12.89%
3	1934-01-21	59.31	Osasuna	2	1492	11.24%	@ Alaves	0	1353	75.86%	12.90%
4	1933-11-05	56.35	Sevilla	3	1480	4.66%	@ Osasuna	1	1506	82.64%	12.70%
5	1934-01-07	46.11	Real Union	4	1535	11.00%	@ Alaves	2	1400	76.11%	12.90%
6	1934-01-28	32.82	Real Murcia	2	1528	4.03%	@ Real Union	1	1580	83.31%	12.66%
7	1933-12-31	32.80	Real Union	2	1502	4.06%	@ Sporting Gijon	1	1553	83.27%	12.66%
8	1934-02-18	32.48	Celta Vigo	2	1520	4.77%	@ Real Union	1	1542	82.52%	12.71%
9	1933-12-17	30.73	Real Murcia	3	1484	4.98%	@ Alaves	2	1498	82.30%	12.72%
10	1933-11-12	30.10	Atletico Madrid	3	1544	6.48%	@ Real Murcia	2	1510	80.73%	12.79%
11	1934-01-07	29.97	Atletico Madrid	2	1649	10.51%	@ Deportivo La Coruna	1	1523	76.60%	12.89%
12	1933-12-10	29.90	Sporting Gijon	4	1522	5.18%	@ Alaves	3	1528	82.08%	12.73%
13	1934-01-28	28.41	Atletico Madrid	2	1675	14.19%	@ Sabadell	1	1490	72.88%	12.93%
14	1934-02-11	26.85	@ Celta Vigo	4	1493	70.85%	Atletico Madrid	0	1705	16.21%	12.95%
15	1933-11-19	20.95	@ Osasuna	10	1448	77.57%	Alaves	2	1556	9.55%	12.87%
16	1933-12-17	19.10	@ Osasuna	6	1463	79.54%	Sabadell	0	1529	7.63%	12.83%
17	1934-01-14	17.40	@ Osasuna	6	1474	80.26%	Sporting Gijon	0	1522	6.93%	12.81%
18	1934-01-14	14.96	@ Celta Vigo	4	1483	78.36%	Sevilla	0	1575	8.79%	12.86%
19	1934-02-11	14.31	@ Sevilla	9	1559	83.52%	Deportivo La Coruna	0	1498	3.84%	12.65%
20	1934-02-11	12.30	@ Sabadell	3	1460	77.67%	Real Murcia	0	1566	9.46%	12.87%
21	1933-11-12	10.04	@ Deportivo La Coruna	4	1514	81.40%	Real Union	0	1529	5.83%	12.77%
22	1933-12-10	9.92	@ Real Murcia	3	1474	79.60%	Sabadell	0	1538	7.57%	12.83%
23	1934-02-25	9.45	@ Real Murcia	6	1557	81.89%	Osasuna	1	1557	5.37%	12.74%
24	1933-12-17	9.32	@ Celta Vigo	3	1463	80.08%	Real Union	0	1515	7.11%	12.81%
25	1933-11-26	8.96	@ Sporting Gijon	0	1525	81.28%	Sevilla	0	1544	5.95%	12.77%