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1935-36 La Liga Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Athletic Bilbao

31 points · 4th Title

Last Title: 1933-34

Relegated

Osasuna

14 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Athletic Bilbao

6.14 points above expected

31 points · 24.86 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Osasuna

6.63 points below expected

14 points · 20.63 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Athletic Bilbao Champion 22 14 3 5 31 59 33 +26 24.86 +6.14
2 Madrid CF 22 13 3 6 29 62 35 +27 25.10 +3.90
3 Real Oviedo 22 12 4 6 28 63 47 +16 24.12 +3.88
4 Racing Santander 22 13 1 8 27 58 46 +12 21.77 +5.23
5 Barcelona 22 11 2 9 24 39 32 +7 23.25 +0.75
6 Hercules 22 11 2 9 24 37 41 -4 21.72 +2.28
7 Real Betis 22 9 2 11 20 31 46 -15 22.79 -2.79
8 Valencia 22 7 5 10 19 36 42 -6 20.14 -1.14
9 Espanol 22 8 1 13 17 36 53 -17 20.36 -3.36
10 Sevilla 22 6 4 12 16 27 48 -21 19.74 -3.74
11 Atletico Madrid 22 6 3 13 15 34 50 -16 19.52 -4.52
12 Osasuna Relegated 22 7 0 15 14 46 55 -9 20.63 -6.63

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Madrid CF 1892 29 25.10 +3.90 90.8% 14 20 23 25 27 31 38
Athletic Bilbao 1860 31 24.86 +6.14 97.3% 13 19 23 25 27 31 39
Real Oviedo 1857 28 24.12 +3.88 90.5% 10 19 22 24 26 30 37
Barcelona 1787 24 23.25 +0.75 64.5% 10 18 21 23 26 29 35
Racing Santander 1773 27 21.77 +5.23 95.6% 10 16 19 22 24 27 35
Hercules 1741 24 21.72 +2.28 80.6% 8 16 19 22 24 27 34
Real Betis 1717 20 22.79 -2.79 25.1% 10 17 20 23 25 28 37
Valencia 1688 19 20.14 -1.14 41.9% 7 15 18 20 22 26 34
Sevilla 1670 16 19.74 -3.74 15.5% 8 14 18 20 22 25 32
Atletico Madrid 1662 15 19.52 -4.52 11.4% 8 14 17 20 22 25 32
Osasuna 1651 14 20.63 -6.63 3.5% 7 15 18 21 23 26 33
Espanol 1648 17 20.36 -3.36 20.3% 7 15 18 20 23 26 36

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AB AM BAR ESP HER MC OSA RS RB RO SEV VAL
Athletic Bilbao —
2-0-0
3.47
1-0-1
3.25
1-0-1
3.46
1-0-1
3.31
1-1-0
2.80
1-0-1
3.61
1-0-1
3.26
2-0-0
2.98
1-1-0
2.97
2-0-0
3.45
1-1-0
3.46
Atletico Madrid
0-0-2
2.29
 —
0-0-2
2.49
2-0-0
2.73
0-0-2
2.62
0-0-2
2.34
1-0-1
2.49
1-0-1
2.75
1-0-1
2.40
1-0-1
2.02
0-1-1
2.96
0-2-0
2.83
Barcelona
1-0-1
2.51
2-0-0
3.27
 —
1-0-1
3.16
1-1-0
2.99
0-0-2
2.74
2-0-0
3.03
0-0-2
3.28
1-0-1
2.92
1-0-1
2.79
1-0-1
3.57
1-1-0
3.22
Espanol
1-0-1
2.30
0-0-2
3.03
1-0-1
2.60
 —
1-0-1
2.80
1-0-1
2.23
1-0-1
2.81
0-1-1
2.50
1-0-1
2.65
0-0-2
2.49
1-0-1
2.98
1-0-1
2.86
Hercules
1-0-1
2.45
2-0-0
3.15
0-1-1
2.77
1-0-1
2.96
 —
0-0-2
2.57
1-0-1
2.89
1-0-1
2.83
1-1-0
2.74
1-0-1
2.60
2-0-0
3.17
1-0-1
3.14
Madrid CF
0-1-1
2.97
2-0-0
3.43
2-0-0
3.02
1-0-1
3.53
2-0-0
3.20
 —
2-0-0
3.53
0-0-2
3.28
1-1-0
3.44
1-0-1
2.97
0-1-1
3.50
2-0-0
3.49
Osasuna
1-0-1
2.16
1-0-1
3.27
0-0-2
2.73
1-0-1
2.95
1-0-1
2.87
0-0-2
2.23
 —
1-0-1
2.69
1-0-1
2.51
0-0-2
2.21
1-0-1
3.08
0-0-2
3.02
Racing Santander
1-0-1
2.50
1-0-1
3.01
2-0-0
2.48
1-1-0
3.26
1-0-1
2.93
2-0-0
2.48
1-0-1
3.08
 —
1-0-1
2.81
0-0-2
2.75
2-0-0
3.04
1-0-1
2.99
Real Betis
0-0-2
2.78
1-0-1
3.36
1-0-1
2.84
1-0-1
3.11
0-1-1
3.02
0-1-1
2.32
1-0-1
3.26
1-0-1
2.95
 —
1-0-1
2.83
1-0-1
3.28
2-0-0
3.11
Real Oviedo
0-1-1
2.79
1-0-1
3.74
1-0-1
2.97
2-0-0
3.27
1-0-1
3.16
1-0-1
2.79
2-0-0
3.55
2-0-0
3.01
1-0-1
2.93
 —
0-2-0
3.18
1-1-0
3.47
Sevilla
0-0-2
2.31
1-1-0
2.80
1-0-1
2.19
1-0-1
2.78
0-0-2
2.59
1-1-0
2.26
1-0-1
2.68
0-0-2
2.72
1-0-1
2.49
0-2-0
2.58
 —
0-0-2
2.92
Valencia
0-1-1
2.30
0-2-0
2.93
0-1-1
2.54
1-0-1
2.90
1-0-1
2.62
0-0-2
2.27
2-0-0
2.74
1-0-1
2.77
0-0-2
2.65
0-1-1
2.29
2-0-0
2.84
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.62 +3.6
Allowed 0.54 -5.7
Differential 0.86 +3.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.52%5.68%4.17%4.92%1.14%2.27%19.70%
15.68%6.06%6.44%1.89%2.65%3.41%26.14%
24.17%6.44%2.27%3.79%1.52%4.17%22.35%
34.92%1.89%3.79%1.52%0.76%0.76%13.64%
41.14%2.65%1.52%0.76%—0.76%6.82%
5+2.27%3.41%4.17%0.76%0.76%—11.36%
Total19.70%26.14%22.35%13.64%6.82%11.36%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 2.00 +0.00
SD 1.67 1.67 2.55
CV 0.84 0.84 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%9.09%———13.64%
14.55%4.55%4.55%—4.55%—18.18%
29.09%9.09%4.55%———22.73%
3—4.55%4.55%4.55%——13.64%
4—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%——22.73%
Total18.18%31.82%36.36%9.09%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.68 1.50 +1.18
SD 2.01 1.06 2.32
CV 0.75 0.71 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———9.09%4.55%—13.64%
14.55%9.09%13.64%9.09%4.55%4.55%45.45%
24.55%—4.55%9.09%—4.55%22.73%
34.55%—9.09%———13.64%
4———————
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total18.18%9.09%27.27%27.27%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 2.27 -0.73
SD 1.18 1.52 2.29
CV 0.77 0.67 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%—27.27%
113.64%—9.09%———22.73%
29.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%—4.55%27.27%
34.55%—————4.55%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
Total36.36%18.18%22.73%13.64%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.77 1.45 +0.32
SD 1.69 1.47 2.48
CV 0.95 1.01 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
14.55%4.55%4.55%——9.09%22.73%
24.55%——9.09%—9.09%22.73%
313.64%—9.09%———22.73%
4———————
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total22.73%13.64%22.73%13.64%4.55%22.73%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 2.41 -0.77
SD 1.50 2.02 2.91
CV 0.92 0.84 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%—4.55%——13.64%
113.64%4.55%———4.55%22.73%
24.55%22.73%4.55%4.55%4.55%9.09%50.00%
34.55%————4.55%9.09%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total22.73%40.91%4.55%9.09%4.55%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.86 -0.18
SD 0.99 1.83 1.99
CV 0.59 0.98 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%—4.55%——13.64%
14.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
2—4.55%4.55%—4.55%—13.64%
39.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%—27.27%
4—9.09%————9.09%
5+4.55%9.09%4.55%—4.55%—22.73%
Total18.18%40.91%18.18%9.09%13.64%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.82 1.59 +1.23
SD 1.87 1.30 2.31
CV 0.66 0.82 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%13.64%4.55%—4.55%31.82%
1——4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%
2———4.55%—9.09%13.64%
34.55%4.55%————9.09%
44.55%4.55%———4.55%13.64%
5+4.55%4.55%—4.55%——13.64%
Total13.64%22.73%18.18%18.18%4.55%22.73%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.09 2.50 -0.41
SD 2.11 1.85 3.16
CV 1.01 0.74 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%————9.09%
1—4.55%—9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
2—9.09%——4.55%4.55%18.18%
34.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
49.09%—9.09%4.55%——22.73%
5+—4.55%9.09%———13.64%
Total13.64%31.82%22.73%13.64%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.64 2.09 +0.55
SD 1.71 1.72 2.72
CV 0.65 0.82 —
Max 6 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%—9.09%—13.64%31.82%
14.55%9.09%9.09%——9.09%31.82%
29.09%—————9.09%
313.64%4.55%4.55%———22.73%
4———————
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total27.27%27.27%13.64%9.09%—22.73%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 2.09 -0.68
SD 1.40 2.18 3.17
CV 1.00 1.04 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%—4.55%——13.64%
14.55%9.09%————13.64%
2—9.09%—4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
3———4.55%——4.55%
4—4.55%4.55%4.55%—4.55%18.18%
5+—4.55%18.18%—4.55%—27.27%
Total9.09%31.82%22.73%18.18%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.86 2.14 +0.73
SD 1.91 1.46 2.07
CV 0.67 0.68 —
Max 6 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%—4.55%22.73%
14.55%9.09%18.18%—9.09%4.55%45.45%
29.09%9.09%————18.18%
3——4.55%4.55%—4.55%13.64%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.18%22.73%27.27%9.09%9.09%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 2.18 -0.95
SD 0.97 1.84 2.03
CV 0.79 0.84 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%—9.09%4.55%——18.18%
19.09%13.64%9.09%—4.55%—36.36%
2—9.09%4.55%9.09%—4.55%27.27%
3——4.55%—4.55%—9.09%
4———————
5+4.55%—4.55%———9.09%
Total18.18%22.73%31.82%13.64%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.91 -0.27
SD 1.40 1.51 2.00
CV 0.85 0.79 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Athletic Bilbao 31 24.86 +6.14
2 Racing Santander 27 21.77 +5.23
3 Madrid CF 29 25.10 +3.90
4 Real Oviedo 28 24.12 +3.88
5 Hercules 24 21.72 +2.28

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Osasuna 14 20.63 -6.63
2 Atletico Madrid 15 19.52 -4.52
3 Sevilla 16 19.74 -3.74
4 Espanol 17 20.36 -3.36
5 Real Betis 20 22.79 -2.79

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hercules 5 Dec 15 – Jan 12 1 in 83
2 Madrid CF 4 Nov 10 – Dec 1 1 in 40
3 Athletic Bilbao 5 Dec 1 – Dec 29 1 in 35
4 Racing Santander 3 Dec 8 – Dec 22 1 in 29
5 Sevilla 2 Apr 13 – Apr 19 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Atletico Madrid 6 Nov 17 – Dec 22 1 in 252
2 Real Betis 5 Jan 26 – Mar 1 1 in 84
3 Sevilla 5 Dec 15 – Jan 12 1 in 52
4 Barcelona 4 Mar 1 – Mar 22 1 in 28
5 Espanol 4 Dec 15 – Jan 5 1 in 26

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valencia 6 Jan 5 – Feb 15 1 in 151
2 Hercules 5 Dec 15 – Jan 12 1 in 18
3 Sevilla 3 Mar 1 – Mar 15 1 in 12
4 Madrid CF 4 Nov 10 – Dec 1 1 in 12
5 Athletic Bilbao 5 Dec 1 – Dec 29 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sevilla 9 Dec 15 – Feb 23 1 in 213
2 Barcelona 5 Feb 15 – Mar 22 1 in 44
3 Atletico Madrid 6 Nov 17 – Dec 22 1 in 40
4 Real Betis 5 Jan 26 – Mar 1 1 in 19
5 Real Oviedo 3 Nov 10 – Nov 24 1 in 17

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Athletic Bilbao24.53%17.93%14.05%10.90%8.66%6.90%5.36%4.33%2.96%2.07%1.56%0.75%
Madrid CF27.08%18.50%13.67%11.28%8.39%6.47%4.80%3.40%2.46%1.99%1.31%0.65%
Real Oviedo15.75%16.13%13.41%12.16%10.32%8.53%6.93%5.74%4.27%3.39%2.20%1.17%
Racing Santander4.52%7.56%8.83%9.65%10.22%10.11%10.05%8.98%9.01%8.31%7.25%5.51%
Barcelona9.67%11.67%12.48%12.02%10.95%9.62%9.17%7.47%6.31%4.73%3.50%2.41%
Hercules3.78%5.84%7.90%8.96%9.87%10.80%10.83%10.11%9.59%9.12%7.57%5.63%
Real Betis6.94%9.17%9.71%10.22%10.26%9.95%9.48%8.93%7.89%6.86%6.14%4.45%
Valencia1.82%2.84%4.49%5.18%7.23%8.46%9.34%10.47%11.42%12.09%12.40%14.26%
Espanol1.91%3.12%4.59%5.40%6.82%7.45%8.85%9.96%11.06%12.38%13.58%14.88%
Sevilla0.97%1.70%2.91%3.73%5.03%6.72%8.04%9.88%12.04%13.66%16.38%18.94%
Atletico Madrid0.99%1.70%2.88%3.89%5.14%6.39%7.84%9.60%11.88%13.37%16.46%19.86%
Osasuna2.04%3.84%5.08%6.61%7.11%8.60%9.31%11.13%11.11%12.03%11.65%11.49%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+49.24%
Strong Edge
68.94%11.36%19.70%
Elo Value
Home Edge
140 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0187.36400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+1.44 goals
Strong Home
-2+1.33+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.6
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
25%
Athletic Bilbao, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.09/gm
Photo Finish
00.090.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.69 * Some Luck: 2.69 to 4.04 * Lucky: 4.04 to 5.39 * Wild Swing: 5.39 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.17 * Close: 2.17 to 3.26 * Off: 3.26 to 4.34 * Way Off: 4.34 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.8 * A Surprise: 0.8 to 1.28 * Several Surprises: 1.28 to 1.76 * Many Surprises: 1.76 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.08 points
Lucky
03.378
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.33
Pinpoint
02.716
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
97.35%
Athletic Bilbao
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
3.45%
Osasuna
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 1
A Surprise
00.81

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.26
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
69%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
80%
Clear Edge
50%85%100%
Close Games
Expected
46%
Frequent
0%44%100%
Blowouts
Expected
38%
Very Frequent
0%33%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.46
Highly Predictable
00.422
Matchup Imbalance
0.67
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.47
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.42
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Chalky
0%15%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%14%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.09 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.09 to 0.14 * Above Noise: 0.14 to 0.18 * Well Above Noise: 0.18 and up.
Probability calibration
0.26
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.21
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.080
Well Within Noise
00.0910.2

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Madrid CF 99.35% 0.65%
Athletic Bilbao 99.25% 0.75%
Real Oviedo 98.83% 1.17%
Barcelona 97.59% 2.41%
Real Betis 95.55% 4.45%
Racing Santander 94.49% 5.51%
Hercules 94.37% 5.63%
Osasuna 88.51% 11.49%
Valencia 85.74% 14.26%
Espanol 85.12% 14.88%
Sevilla 81.06% 18.94%
Atletico Madrid 80.14% 19.86%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1935-11-10 Racing Santander W 1-0 1718 1705 75.6% 11.9% 12.4% +3.6 2
1935-11-10 @ Atletico Madrid L 0-1 1705 1718 12.4% 11.9% 75.6% -3.6 0
1935-11-10 Barcelona W 1-0 1712 1779 69.6% 12.0% 18.4% +5.2 2
1935-11-10 @ Espanol L 0-1 1779 1712 18.4% 12.0% 69.6% -5.2 0
1935-11-10 Madrid CF L 0-1 1723 1784 70.2% 12.0% 17.8% -17.9 0
1935-11-10 @ Hercules W 1-0 1784 1723 17.8% 12.0% 70.2% +17.9 2
1935-11-10 Osasuna W 5-1 1804 1716 79.8% 11.8% 8.4% +7.3 2
1935-11-10 @ Real Betis L 1-5 1716 1804 8.4% 11.8% 79.8% -7.3 0
1935-11-10 Athletic Bilbao D 3-3 1763 1778 73.7% 12.0% 14.3% -2.4 1
1935-11-10 @ Real Oviedo D 3-3 1778 1763 14.3% 12.0% 73.7% +2.4 1
1935-11-10 Sevilla W 5-0 1710 1754 71.5% 12.0% 16.5% +20.6 2
1935-11-10 @ Valencia L 0-5 1754 1710 16.5% 12.0% 71.5% -20.6 0
1935-11-17 Real Betis W 7-0 1780 1811 72.6% 12.0% 15.4% +26.6 3
1935-11-17 @ Athletic Bilbao L 0-7 1811 1780 15.4% 12.0% 72.6% -26.6 2
1935-11-17 Atletico Madrid W 5-1 1774 1721 78.0% 11.9% 10.1% +8.7 2
1935-11-17 @ Barcelona L 1-5 1721 1774 10.1% 11.9% 78.0% -8.7 2
1935-11-17 Hercules W 3-0 1708 1706 75.0% 11.9% 13.1% +10.2 2
1935-11-17 @ Osasuna L 0-3 1706 1708 13.1% 11.9% 75.0% -10.2 0
1935-11-17 Valencia W 6-2 1701 1731 72.7% 12.0% 15.3% +11.0 2
1935-11-17 @ Racing Santander L 2-6 1731 1701 15.3% 12.0% 72.7% -11.0 2
1935-11-17 Espanol W 6-0 1801 1717 79.6% 11.8% 8.6% +13.1 4
1935-11-17 @ Madrid CF L 0-6 1717 1801 8.6% 11.8% 79.6% -13.1 2
1935-11-17 Real Oviedo D 1-1 1734 1760 72.9% 12.0% 15.1% -3.7 1
1935-11-17 @ Sevilla D 1-1 1760 1734 15.1% 12.0% 72.9% +3.7 2
1935-11-24 Madrid CF L 2-3 1712 1815 66.3% 12.0% 21.6% -15.1 2
1935-11-24 @ Atletico Madrid W 3-2 1815 1712 21.6% 12.0% 66.3% +15.1 6
1935-11-24 Osasuna W 3-0 1704 1719 73.8% 12.0% 14.2% +11.1 4
1935-11-24 @ Espanol L 0-3 1719 1704 14.2% 12.0% 73.8% -11.1 2
1935-11-24 Athletic Bilbao W 1-0 1695 1807 65.4% 12.0% 22.6% +6.3 2
1935-11-24 @ Hercules L 0-1 1807 1695 22.6% 12.0% 65.4% -6.3 3
1935-11-24 Real Betis L 2-3 1764 1784 73.4% 12.0% 14.7% -16.8 2
1935-11-24 @ Real Oviedo W 3-2 1784 1764 14.7% 12.0% 73.4% +16.8 4
1935-11-24 Racing Santander L 1-2 1730 1712 76.0% 11.9% 12.1% -18.3 1
1935-11-24 @ Sevilla W 2-1 1712 1730 12.1% 11.9% 76.0% +18.3 4
1935-11-24 Barcelona L 1-2 1720 1783 69.9% 12.0% 18.1% -16.8 2
1935-11-24 @ Valencia W 2-1 1783 1720 18.1% 12.0% 69.9% +16.8 4
1935-12-01 Espanol W 5-2 1801 1715 79.6% 11.8% 8.5% +5.0 5
1935-12-01 @ Athletic Bilbao L 2-5 1715 1801 8.5% 11.8% 79.6% -5.0 4
1935-12-01 Sevilla W 4-1 1800 1712 79.8% 11.8% 8.4% +5.7 6
1935-12-01 @ Barcelona L 1-4 1712 1800 8.4% 11.8% 79.8% -5.6 1
1935-12-01 Atletico Madrid W 4-0 1707 1697 75.5% 11.9% 12.6% +12.9 4
1935-12-01 @ Osasuna L 0-4 1697 1707 12.6% 11.9% 75.5% -12.9 2
1935-12-01 Real Oviedo L 2-6 1731 1747 73.6% 12.0% 14.4% -47.6 4
1935-12-01 @ Racing Santander W 6-2 1747 1731 14.4% 12.0% 73.6% +47.6 4
1935-12-01 Hercules D 1-1 1801 1702 80.3% 11.8% 7.9% -4.7 5
1935-12-01 @ Real Betis D 1-1 1702 1801 7.9% 11.8% 80.3% +4.7 3
1935-12-01 Valencia W 4-1 1830 1703 81.4% 11.7% 6.9% +4.6 8
1935-12-01 @ Madrid CF L 1-4 1703 1830 6.9% 11.7% 81.4% -4.6 2
1935-12-08 Athletic Bilbao L 1-2 1684 1806 64.4% 12.0% 23.6% -15.5 2
1935-12-08 @ Atletico Madrid W 2-1 1806 1684 23.6% 12.0% 64.4% +15.5 7
1935-12-08 Real Betis W 3-0 1710 1796 67.9% 12.0% 20.1% +15.4 6
1935-12-08 @ Espanol L 0-3 1796 1710 20.1% 12.0% 67.9% -15.4 5
1935-12-08 Barcelona W 4-0 1683 1805 64.2% 12.0% 23.7% +23.5 6
1935-12-08 @ Racing Santander L 0-4 1805 1683 23.7% 12.0% 64.2% -23.5 6
1935-12-08 Hercules W 5-2 1795 1706 79.8% 11.8% 8.4% +4.9 6
1935-12-08 @ Real Oviedo L 2-5 1706 1795 8.4% 11.8% 79.8% -4.9 3
1935-12-08 Madrid CF W 2-1 1706 1834 63.6% 12.0% 24.3% +6.3 3
1935-12-08 @ Sevilla L 1-2 1834 1706 24.3% 12.0% 63.6% -6.3 8
1935-12-08 Osasuna W 2-1 1698 1720 73.2% 12.0% 14.8% +4.0 4
1935-12-08 @ Valencia L 1-2 1720 1698 14.8% 12.0% 73.2% -4.0 4
1935-12-15 Valencia W 3-2 1821 1702 81.1% 11.8% 7.1% +1.9 9
1935-12-15 @ Athletic Bilbao L 2-3 1702 1821 7.1% 11.8% 81.1% -1.9 4
1935-12-15 Real Oviedo W 5-2 1782 1800 73.6% 12.0% 14.5% +8.2 8
1935-12-15 @ Barcelona L 2-5 1800 1782 14.5% 12.0% 73.6% -8.2 6
1935-12-15 Espanol W 2-1 1701 1726 73.1% 12.0% 15.0% +4.0 5
1935-12-15 @ Hercules L 1-2 1726 1701 15.0% 12.0% 73.1% -4.0 6
1935-12-15 Sevilla W 6-3 1716 1712 75.1% 11.9% 13.0% +6.9 6
1935-12-15 @ Osasuna L 3-6 1712 1716 13.0% 11.9% 75.1% -6.9 3
1935-12-15 Atletico Madrid W 3-0 1781 1669 80.8% 11.8% 7.4% +5.9 7
1935-12-15 @ Real Betis L 0-3 1669 1781 7.4% 11.8% 80.8% -5.9 2
1935-12-15 Racing Santander L 2-4 1828 1706 81.2% 11.8% 7.0% -30.5 8
1935-12-15 @ Madrid CF W 4-2 1706 1828 7.0% 11.8% 81.2% +30.5 8
1935-12-22 Hercules L 1-2 1663 1705 71.7% 12.0% 16.3% -17.2 2
1935-12-22 @ Atletico Madrid W 2-1 1705 1663 16.3% 12.0% 71.7% +17.2 7
1935-12-22 Madrid CF L 0-3 1790 1797 74.3% 11.9% 13.8% -52.0 8
1935-12-22 @ Barcelona W 3-0 1797 1790 13.8% 11.9% 74.3% +52.0 10
1935-12-22 Osasuna W 3-1 1737 1723 75.7% 11.9% 12.4% +5.8 10
1935-12-22 @ Racing Santander L 1-3 1723 1737 12.4% 11.9% 75.7% -5.8 6
1935-12-22 Espanol W 5-2 1791 1722 78.9% 11.8% 9.3% +5.4 8
1935-12-22 @ Real Oviedo L 2-5 1722 1791 9.3% 11.8% 78.9% -5.4 6
1935-12-22 Athletic Bilbao L 0-2 1706 1823 64.8% 12.0% 23.2% -31.1 3
1935-12-22 @ Sevilla W 2-0 1823 1706 23.2% 12.0% 64.8% +31.1 11
1935-12-22 Real Betis L 0-2 1700 1787 67.8% 12.0% 20.2% -32.6 4
1935-12-22 @ Valencia W 2-0 1787 1700 20.2% 12.0% 67.8% +32.6 9
1935-12-29 Racing Santander W 6-1 1854 1743 80.8% 11.8% 7.4% +7.9 13
1935-12-29 @ Athletic Bilbao L 1-6 1743 1854 7.4% 11.8% 80.8% -7.9 10
1935-12-29 Atletico Madrid L 2-3 1716 1646 78.9% 11.8% 9.2% -18.1 6
1935-12-29 @ Espanol W 3-2 1646 1716 9.2% 11.8% 78.9% +18.1 4
1935-12-29 Valencia W 2-0 1723 1668 78.1% 11.9% 10.0% +5.5 9
1935-12-29 @ Hercules L 0-2 1668 1723 10.0% 11.9% 78.1% -5.5 4
1935-12-29 Barcelona L 0-1 1717 1738 73.3% 12.0% 14.7% -18.7 6
1935-12-29 @ Osasuna W 1-0 1738 1717 14.7% 12.0% 73.3% +18.7 10
1935-12-29 Sevilla W 1-0 1820 1674 82.1% 11.7% 6.2% +1.8 11
1935-12-29 @ Real Betis L 0-1 1674 1820 6.2% 11.7% 82.1% -1.8 3
1935-12-29 Real Oviedo W 5-4 1849 1797 78.0% 11.9% 10.1% +2.5 12
1935-12-29 @ Madrid CF L 4-5 1797 1849 10.1% 11.9% 78.0% -2.5 8
1936-01-05 Athletic Bilbao W 2-0 1757 1862 66.0% 12.0% 21.9% +11.5 12
1936-01-05 @ Barcelona L 0-2 1862 1757 21.9% 12.0% 66.0% -11.5 13
1936-01-05 Real Betis W 5-1 1735 1821 67.8% 12.0% 20.2% +16.8 12
1936-01-05 @ Racing Santander L 1-5 1821 1735 20.2% 12.0% 67.8% -16.8 11
1936-01-05 Osasuna W 6-2 1852 1699 82.4% 11.7% 5.9% +4.4 14
1936-01-05 @ Madrid CF L 2-6 1699 1852 5.9% 11.7% 82.4% -4.4 6
1936-01-05 Atletico Madrid W 4-1 1794 1664 81.5% 11.7% 6.7% +4.5 10
1936-01-05 @ Real Oviedo L 1-4 1664 1794 6.7% 11.7% 81.5% -4.5 4
1936-01-05 Hercules L 1-2 1673 1728 70.6% 12.0% 17.4% -17.0 3
1936-01-05 @ Sevilla W 2-1 1728 1673 17.4% 12.0% 70.6% +17.0 11
1936-01-05 Espanol W 1-0 1662 1698 72.2% 12.0% 15.8% +4.5 6
1936-01-05 @ Valencia L 0-1 1698 1662 15.8% 12.0% 72.2% -4.5 6
1936-01-12 Madrid CF W 1-0 1850 1856 74.4% 11.9% 13.7% +3.9 15
1936-01-12 @ Athletic Bilbao L 0-1 1856 1850 13.7% 11.9% 74.4% -3.9 14
1936-01-12 Valencia D 2-2 1659 1667 74.3% 11.9% 13.8% -2.9 5
1936-01-12 @ Atletico Madrid D 2-2 1667 1659 13.8% 11.9% 74.3% +2.9 7
1936-01-12 Sevilla W 6-1 1694 1656 77.2% 11.9% 10.9% +11.5 8
1936-01-12 @ Espanol L 1-6 1656 1694 10.9% 11.9% 77.2% -11.5 3
1936-01-12 Racing Santander W 4-1 1745 1752 74.4% 11.9% 13.7% +9.0 13
1936-01-12 @ Hercules L 1-4 1752 1745 13.7% 11.9% 74.4% -9.0 12
1936-01-12 Barcelona W 2-0 1805 1768 77.1% 11.9% 11.0% +6.0 13
1936-01-12 @ Real Betis L 0-2 1768 1805 11.0% 11.9% 77.1% -6.0 12
1936-01-12 Osasuna W 5-2 1799 1694 80.5% 11.8% 7.7% +4.5 12
1936-01-12 @ Real Oviedo L 2-5 1694 1799 7.7% 11.8% 80.5% -4.5 6
1936-01-26 Hercules W 1-0 1762 1754 75.4% 11.9% 12.7% +3.6 14
1936-01-26 @ Barcelona L 0-1 1754 1762 12.7% 11.9% 75.4% -3.6 13
1936-01-26 Athletic Bilbao W 4-1 1690 1854 59.5% 12.0% 28.4% +17.9 8
1936-01-26 @ Osasuna L 1-4 1854 1690 28.4% 12.0% 59.5% -17.9 15
1936-01-26 Espanol W 4-0 1743 1705 77.1% 11.9% 11.0% +11.3 14
1936-01-26 @ Racing Santander L 0-4 1705 1743 11.0% 11.9% 77.1% -11.3 8
1936-01-26 Real Betis W 5-1 1852 1811 77.4% 11.9% 10.7% +9.2 16
1936-01-26 @ Madrid CF L 1-5 1811 1852 10.7% 11.9% 77.4% -9.2 13
1936-01-26 Atletico Madrid D 1-1 1644 1656 74.0% 11.9% 14.1% -3.8 4
1936-01-26 @ Sevilla D 1-1 1656 1644 14.1% 11.9% 74.0% +3.8 6
1936-01-26 Real Oviedo D 1-1 1670 1803 63.0% 12.0% 24.9% -2.4 8
1936-01-26 @ Valencia D 1-1 1803 1670 24.9% 12.0% 63.0% +2.4 13
1936-02-02 Real Oviedo W 4-2 1836 1806 76.8% 11.9% 11.3% +4.8 17
1936-02-02 @ Athletic Bilbao L 2-4 1806 1836 11.3% 11.9% 76.8% -4.8 13
1936-02-02 Espanol W 2-0 1766 1694 79.0% 11.8% 9.2% +5.0 16
1936-02-02 @ Barcelona L 0-2 1694 1766 9.2% 11.8% 79.0% -5.0 8
1936-02-02 Real Betis W 6-0 1708 1801 67.2% 12.0% 20.8% +30.5 10
1936-02-02 @ Osasuna L 0-6 1801 1708 20.8% 12.0% 67.2% -30.4 13
1936-02-02 Atletico Madrid W 5-2 1754 1660 80.0% 11.8% 8.2% +4.8 16
1936-02-02 @ Racing Santander L 2-5 1660 1754 8.2% 11.8% 80.0% -4.8 6
1936-02-02 Hercules W 5-1 1862 1750 80.8% 11.8% 7.4% +6.5 18
1936-02-02 @ Madrid CF L 1-5 1750 1862 7.4% 11.8% 80.8% -6.5 13
1936-02-02 Valencia L 1-2 1640 1667 72.9% 12.0% 15.1% -17.5 4
1936-02-02 @ Sevilla W 2-1 1667 1640 15.1% 12.0% 72.9% +17.5 10
1936-02-09 Barcelona L 0-3 1656 1771 65.0% 12.0% 23.0% -45.3 6
1936-02-09 @ Atletico Madrid W 3-0 1771 1656 23.0% 12.0% 65.0% +45.3 18
1936-02-09 Madrid CF W 3-0 1689 1868 57.7% 12.0% 30.2% +22.4 10
1936-02-09 @ Espanol L 0-3 1868 1689 30.2% 12.0% 57.7% -22.4 18
1936-02-09 Osasuna W 1-0 1744 1738 75.2% 11.9% 12.9% +3.7 15
1936-02-09 @ Hercules L 0-1 1738 1744 12.9% 11.9% 75.2% -3.7 10
1936-02-09 Athletic Bilbao L 1-2 1771 1841 69.3% 12.0% 18.7% -16.7 13
1936-02-09 @ Real Betis W 2-1 1841 1771 18.7% 12.0% 69.3% +16.6 19
1936-02-09 Sevilla D 0-0 1801 1623 83.2% 11.6% 5.2% -5.7 14
1936-02-09 @ Real Oviedo D 0-0 1623 1801 5.2% 11.6% 83.2% +5.7 5
1936-02-09 Racing Santander W 1-0 1685 1759 69.0% 12.0% 19.0% +5.3 12
1936-02-09 @ Valencia L 0-1 1759 1685 19.0% 12.0% 69.0% -5.3 16
1936-02-15 Valencia D 0-0 1816 1690 81.4% 11.7% 6.9% -5.4 19
1936-02-15 @ Barcelona D 0-0 1690 1816 6.9% 11.7% 81.4% +5.5 13
1936-02-16 Espanol W 6-1 1734 1711 76.3% 11.9% 11.8% +12.4 12
1936-02-16 @ Osasuna L 1-6 1711 1734 11.8% 11.9% 76.3% -12.4 10
1936-02-16 Real Oviedo L 1-2 1754 1795 71.8% 12.0% 16.2% -17.3 13
1936-02-16 @ Real Betis W 2-1 1795 1754 16.2% 12.0% 71.8% +17.3 16
1936-02-16 Atletico Madrid W 3-1 1846 1610 84.7% 11.5% 3.8% +1.8 20
1936-02-16 @ Madrid CF L 1-3 1610 1846 3.8% 11.5% 84.7% -1.8 6
1936-02-23 Sevilla W 3-0 1753 1629 81.3% 11.7% 6.9% +5.5 18
1936-02-23 @ Racing Santander L 0-3 1629 1753 6.9% 11.7% 81.3% -5.5 5
1936-03-01 Osasuna W 2-0 1608 1747 62.5% 12.0% 25.4% +13.2 8
1936-03-01 @ Atletico Madrid L 0-2 1747 1608 25.4% 12.0% 62.5% -13.2 12
1936-03-01 Athletic Bilbao W 2-0 1699 1858 60.2% 12.0% 27.8% +14.3 12
1936-03-01 @ Espanol L 0-2 1858 1699 27.8% 12.0% 60.2% -14.3 19
1936-03-01 Real Betis W 3-0 1748 1737 75.5% 11.9% 12.6% +9.9 17
1936-03-01 @ Hercules L 0-3 1737 1748 12.6% 11.9% 75.5% -9.9 13
1936-03-01 Racing Santander W 4-2 1812 1759 78.0% 11.9% 10.1% +4.2 18
1936-03-01 @ Real Oviedo L 2-4 1759 1812 10.1% 11.9% 78.0% -4.2 18
1936-03-01 Barcelona W 2-1 1623 1811 56.7% 12.0% 31.3% +8.0 7
1936-03-01 @ Sevilla L 1-2 1811 1623 31.3% 12.0% 56.7% -8.0 19
1936-03-01 Madrid CF L 1-2 1696 1848 61.0% 12.0% 27.0% -14.6 13
1936-03-01 @ Valencia W 2-1 1848 1696 27.0% 12.0% 61.0% +14.6 22
1936-03-08 Atletico Madrid W 3-1 1844 1622 84.4% 11.5% 4.1% +2.0 21
1936-03-08 @ Athletic Bilbao L 1-3 1622 1844 4.1% 11.5% 84.4% -2.0 8
1936-03-08 Racing Santander L 2-3 1803 1755 77.8% 11.9% 10.4% -17.8 19
1936-03-08 @ Barcelona W 3-2 1755 1803 10.4% 11.9% 77.8% +17.8 20
1936-03-08 Real Oviedo W 1-0 1758 1817 70.3% 12.0% 17.7% +5.0 19
1936-03-08 @ Hercules L 0-1 1817 1758 17.7% 12.0% 70.3% -5.0 18
1936-03-08 Valencia L 2-3 1734 1681 78.0% 11.9% 10.1% -17.9 12
1936-03-08 @ Osasuna W 3-2 1681 1734 10.1% 11.9% 78.0% +17.9 15
1936-03-08 Espanol W 3-0 1727 1713 75.7% 11.9% 12.4% +9.7 15
1936-03-08 @ Real Betis L 0-3 1713 1727 12.4% 11.9% 75.7% -9.7 12
1936-03-08 Sevilla D 3-3 1862 1631 84.6% 11.5% 3.9% -3.3 23
1936-03-08 @ Madrid CF D 3-3 1631 1862 3.9% 11.5% 84.6% +3.3 8
1936-03-15 Real Betis W 5-0 1620 1737 64.8% 12.0% 23.2% +28.3 10
1936-03-15 @ Atletico Madrid L 0-5 1737 1620 23.2% 12.0% 64.8% -28.3 15
1936-03-15 Hercules W 3-2 1704 1763 70.3% 12.0% 17.7% +4.5 14
1936-03-15 @ Espanol L 2-3 1763 1704 17.7% 12.0% 70.3% -4.5 19
1936-03-15 Madrid CF W 4-3 1772 1859 67.8% 12.0% 20.1% +4.9 22
1936-03-15 @ Racing Santander L 3-4 1859 1772 20.1% 12.0% 67.8% -4.9 23
1936-03-15 Barcelona W 2-1 1812 1785 76.5% 11.9% 11.6% +3.1 20
1936-03-15 @ Real Oviedo L 1-2 1785 1812 11.6% 11.9% 76.5% -3.1 19
1936-03-15 Osasuna W 2-0 1634 1716 68.3% 12.0% 19.7% +10.4 10
1936-03-15 @ Sevilla L 0-2 1716 1634 19.7% 12.0% 68.3% -10.4 12
1936-03-15 Athletic Bilbao D 1-1 1699 1845 61.6% 12.0% 26.4% -2.2 16
1936-03-15 @ Valencia D 1-1 1845 1699 26.4% 12.0% 61.6% +2.2 22
1936-03-19 Hercules W 5-3 1848 1758 79.8% 11.8% 8.3% +3.3 24
1936-03-19 @ Athletic Bilbao L 3-5 1758 1848 8.3% 11.8% 79.8% -3.3 19
1936-03-22 Sevilla W 4-1 1851 1645 84.0% 11.6% 4.5% +3.0 26
1936-03-22 @ Athletic Bilbao L 1-4 1645 1851 4.5% 11.6% 84.0% -3.0 10
1936-03-22 Real Oviedo L 1-5 1708 1815 65.9% 12.0% 22.1% -50.0 14
1936-03-22 @ Espanol W 5-1 1815 1708 22.1% 12.0% 65.9% +50.0 22
1936-03-22 Atletico Madrid W 2-1 1755 1648 80.6% 11.8% 7.6% +2.1 21
1936-03-22 @ Hercules L 1-2 1648 1755 7.6% 11.8% 80.6% -2.1 10
1936-03-22 Racing Santander W 3-1 1705 1777 69.2% 12.0% 18.8% +8.6 14
1936-03-22 @ Osasuna L 1-3 1777 1705 18.8% 12.0% 69.2% -8.6 22
1936-03-22 Valencia W 3-0 1709 1697 75.6% 11.9% 12.5% +9.8 17
1936-03-22 @ Real Betis L 0-3 1697 1709 12.5% 11.9% 75.6% -9.8 16
1936-03-22 Barcelona W 3-0 1854 1782 79.0% 11.8% 9.2% +7.3 25
1936-03-22 @ Madrid CF L 0-3 1782 1854 9.2% 11.8% 79.0% -7.3 19
1936-03-29 Espanol W 3-2 1646 1658 74.0% 11.9% 14.1% +3.6 12
1936-03-29 @ Atletico Madrid L 2-3 1658 1646 14.1% 11.9% 74.0% -3.6 14
1936-03-29 Osasuna W 5-0 1775 1714 78.4% 11.9% 9.7% +12.4 21
1936-03-29 @ Barcelona L 0-5 1714 1775 9.7% 11.9% 78.4% -12.4 14
1936-03-29 Athletic Bilbao W 2-1 1769 1854 67.9% 12.0% 20.0% +5.3 24
1936-03-29 @ Racing Santander L 1-2 1854 1769 20.0% 12.0% 67.9% -5.3 26
1936-03-29 Madrid CF W 1-0 1865 1861 75.0% 11.9% 13.0% +3.7 24
1936-03-29 @ Real Oviedo L 0-1 1861 1865 13.0% 11.9% 75.0% -3.7 25
1936-03-29 Real Betis W 1-0 1642 1718 68.8% 12.0% 19.2% +5.4 12
1936-03-29 @ Sevilla L 0-1 1718 1642 19.2% 12.0% 68.8% -5.4 17
1936-03-29 Hercules W 5-2 1687 1757 69.3% 12.0% 18.6% +10.5 18
1936-03-29 @ Valencia L 2-5 1757 1687 18.6% 12.0% 69.3% -10.5 21
1936-04-05 Barcelona W 5-2 1849 1787 78.5% 11.8% 9.7% +5.6 28
1936-04-05 @ Athletic Bilbao L 2-5 1787 1849 9.7% 11.8% 78.5% -5.6 21
1936-04-05 Real Oviedo W 3-0 1650 1869 52.6% 12.0% 35.3% +25.8 14
1936-04-05 @ Atletico Madrid L 0-3 1869 1650 35.3% 12.0% 52.6% -25.8 24
1936-04-05 Valencia W 3-2 1654 1697 71.6% 12.0% 16.4% +4.2 16
1936-04-05 @ Espanol L 2-3 1697 1654 16.4% 12.0% 71.6% -4.1 18
1936-04-05 Sevilla W 2-1 1746 1647 80.3% 11.8% 7.9% +2.2 23
1936-04-05 @ Hercules L 1-2 1647 1746 7.9% 11.8% 80.3% -2.2 12
1936-04-05 Madrid CF L 1-4 1702 1858 60.5% 12.0% 27.4% -35.6 14
1936-04-05 @ Osasuna W 4-1 1858 1702 27.4% 12.0% 60.5% +35.6 27
1936-04-05 Racing Santander W 3-1 1713 1774 70.1% 12.0% 17.9% +8.2 19
1936-04-05 @ Real Betis L 1-3 1774 1713 17.9% 12.0% 70.1% -8.2 24
1936-04-12 Real Betis W 1-0 1782 1721 78.4% 11.9% 9.7% +2.8 23
1936-04-12 @ Barcelona L 0-1 1721 1782 9.7% 11.9% 78.4% -2.8 19
1936-04-12 Real Oviedo L 4-5 1666 1843 58.0% 12.0% 29.9% -12.7 14
1936-04-12 @ Osasuna W 5-4 1843 1666 29.9% 12.0% 58.0% +12.7 26
1936-04-12 Hercules W 4-2 1766 1749 75.9% 11.9% 12.2% +5.1 26
1936-04-12 @ Racing Santander L 2-4 1749 1766 12.2% 11.9% 75.9% -5.1 23
1936-04-12 Athletic Bilbao D 2-2 1893 1854 77.2% 11.9% 10.9% -3.2 28
1936-04-12 @ Madrid CF D 2-2 1854 1893 10.9% 11.9% 77.2% +3.2 29
1936-04-12 Atletico Madrid D 1-1 1693 1675 76.0% 11.9% 12.1% -4.1 19
1936-04-12 @ Valencia D 1-1 1675 1693 12.1% 11.9% 76.0% +4.1 15
1936-04-13 Espanol W 2-0 1645 1659 73.9% 12.0% 14.2% +7.6 14
1936-04-13 @ Sevilla L 0-2 1659 1645 14.2% 12.0% 73.9% -7.6 16
1936-04-19 Osasuna W 2-0 1858 1653 83.9% 11.6% 4.5% +2.5 31
1936-04-19 @ Athletic Bilbao L 0-2 1653 1858 4.5% 11.6% 83.9% -2.5 14
1936-04-19 Sevilla L 2-3 1679 1653 76.5% 11.9% 11.6% -17.5 15
1936-04-19 @ Atletico Madrid W 3-2 1653 1679 11.6% 11.9% 76.5% +17.5 16
1936-04-19 Racing Santander D 1-1 1651 1771 64.5% 12.0% 23.4% -2.6 17
1936-04-19 @ Espanol D 1-1 1771 1651 23.4% 12.0% 64.5% +2.6 27
1936-04-19 Barcelona D 2-2 1743 1784 71.8% 12.0% 16.2% -2.6 24
1936-04-19 @ Hercules D 2-2 1784 1743 16.2% 12.0% 71.8% +2.6 24
1936-04-19 Madrid CF D 1-1 1718 1890 58.7% 12.0% 29.3% -1.8 20
1936-04-19 @ Real Betis D 1-1 1890 1718 29.3% 12.0% 58.7% +1.8 29
1936-04-19 Valencia W 4-3 1855 1689 82.8% 11.7% 5.5% +1.4 28
1936-04-19 @ Real Oviedo L 3-4 1689 1855 5.5% 11.7% 82.8% -1.4 19

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1935-12-15 7.05% Racing Santander 1706 4 @ Madrid CF 1828 2
2 1935-12-29 9.23% Atletico Madrid 1646 3 @ Espanol 1716 2
3 1936-03-08 10.13% Valencia 1681 3 @ Osasuna 1734 2
4 1936-03-08 10.36% Racing Santander 1755 3 @ Barcelona 1803 2
5 1936-04-19 11.56% Sevilla 1653 3 @ Atletico Madrid 1679 2
6 1935-11-24 12.11% Racing Santander 1712 2 @ Sevilla 1730 1
7 1935-12-22 13.75% Madrid CF 1797 3 @ Barcelona 1790 0
8 1935-12-01 14.40% Real Oviedo 1747 6 @ Racing Santander 1731 2
9 1935-11-24 14.68% Real Betis 1784 3 @ Real Oviedo 1764 2
10 1935-12-29 14.69% Barcelona 1738 1 @ Osasuna 1717 0
11 1936-02-02 15.14% Valencia 1667 2 @ Sevilla 1640 1
12 1936-02-16 16.22% Real Oviedo 1795 2 @ Real Betis 1754 1
13 1935-12-22 16.33% Hercules 1705 2 @ Atletico Madrid 1663 1
14 1936-01-05 17.40% Hercules 1728 2 @ Sevilla 1673 1
15 1935-11-10 17.80% Madrid CF 1784 1 @ Hercules 1723 0
16 1935-11-24 18.07% Barcelona 1783 2 @ Valencia 1720 1
17 1936-02-09 18.67% Athletic Bilbao 1841 2 @ Real Betis 1771 1
18 1935-12-22 20.17% Real Betis 1787 2 @ Valencia 1700 0
19 1935-11-24 21.64% Madrid CF 1815 3 @ Atletico Madrid 1712 2
20 1936-03-22 22.11% Real Oviedo 1815 5 @ Espanol 1708 1
21 1936-02-09 22.99% Barcelona 1771 3 @ Atletico Madrid 1656 0
22 1935-12-22 23.18% Athletic Bilbao 1823 2 @ Sevilla 1706 0
23 1935-12-08 23.59% Athletic Bilbao 1806 2 @ Atletico Madrid 1684 1
24 1936-03-01 26.97% Madrid CF 1848 2 @ Valencia 1696 1
25 1936-04-05 27.42% Madrid CF 1858 4 @ Osasuna 1702 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1935-12-22 52.00 Madrid CF 3 1797 13.75% @ Barcelona 0 1790 74.31% 11.95%
2 1936-03-22 49.99 Real Oviedo 5 1815 22.11% @ Espanol 1 1708 65.86% 12.03%
3 1935-12-01 47.58 Real Oviedo 6 1747 14.40% @ Racing Santander 2 1731 73.64% 11.96%
4 1936-02-09 45.29 Barcelona 3 1771 22.99% @ Atletico Madrid 0 1656 64.97% 12.04%
5 1936-04-05 35.60 Madrid CF 4 1858 27.42% @ Osasuna 1 1702 60.53% 12.05%
6 1935-12-22 32.57 Real Betis 2 1787 20.17% @ Valencia 0 1700 67.81% 12.02%
7 1935-12-22 31.10 Athletic Bilbao 2 1823 23.18% @ Sevilla 0 1706 64.78% 12.04%
8 1935-12-15 30.47 Racing Santander 4 1706 7.05% @ Madrid CF 2 1828 81.20% 11.75%
9 1936-02-02 30.45 @ Osasuna 6 1708 67.16% Real Betis 0 1801 20.82% 12.02%
10 1936-03-15 28.31 @ Atletico Madrid 5 1620 64.80% Real Betis 0 1737 23.16% 12.04%
11 1935-11-17 26.59 @ Athletic Bilbao 7 1780 72.59% Real Betis 0 1811 15.44% 11.97%
12 1936-04-05 25.84 @ Atletico Madrid 3 1650 52.62% Real Oviedo 0 1869 35.34% 12.05%
13 1935-12-08 23.47 @ Racing Santander 4 1683 64.25% Barcelona 0 1805 23.71% 12.04%
14 1936-02-09 22.44 @ Espanol 3 1689 57.73% Madrid CF 0 1868 30.21% 12.05%
15 1935-11-10 20.61 @ Valencia 5 1710 71.51% Sevilla 0 1754 16.50% 11.99%
16 1935-12-29 18.73 Barcelona 1 1738 14.69% @ Osasuna 0 1717 73.34% 11.96%
17 1935-11-24 18.33 Racing Santander 2 1712 12.11% @ Sevilla 1 1730 75.97% 11.92%
18 1935-12-29 18.11 Atletico Madrid 3 1646 9.23% @ Espanol 2 1716 78.93% 11.84%
19 1935-11-10 17.90 Madrid CF 1 1784 17.80% @ Hercules 0 1723 70.20% 12.00%
20 1936-01-26 17.90 @ Osasuna 4 1690 59.52% Athletic Bilbao 1 1854 28.43% 12.05%
21 1936-03-08 17.88 Valencia 3 1681 10.13% @ Osasuna 2 1734 78.01% 11.87%
22 1936-03-08 17.82 Racing Santander 3 1755 10.36% @ Barcelona 2 1803 77.76% 11.88%
23 1936-02-02 17.55 Valencia 2 1667 15.14% @ Sevilla 1 1640 72.89% 11.97%
24 1936-04-19 17.52 Sevilla 3 1653 11.56% @ Atletico Madrid 2 1679 76.53% 11.91%
25 1936-02-16 17.27 Real Oviedo 2 1795 16.22% @ Real Betis 1 1754 71.79% 11.98%