1934-35 La Liga Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Real Betis

34 points · 1st Title

Relegated

Arenas

9 pts

Donostia · 11 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Real Betis

8.52 points above expected

34 points · 25.48 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Donostia FC

6.48 points below expected

11 points · 17.48 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Real Betis Champion	22	15	4	3	34	43	19	+24	25.48	+8.52
2	Madrid CF	22	16	1	5	33	61	34	+27	28.64	+4.36
3	Real Oviedo	22	12	2	8	26	60	47	+13	24.73	+1.27
4	Athletic Bilbao	22	11	3	8	25	60	37	+23	26.99	-1.99
5	Sevilla	22	11	2	9	24	53	38	+15	21.61	+2.39
6	Barcelona	22	9	6	7	24	55	44	+11	24.21	-0.21
7	Atletico Madrid	22	8	5	9	21	40	45	-5	19.30	+1.70
8	Valencia	22	9	2	11	20	40	49	-9	18.18	+1.82
9	Espanol	22	9	2	11	20	47	59	-12	21.28	-1.28
10	Racing Santander	22	7	3	12	17	37	46	-9	21.49	-4.49
11	Donostia FC	22	5	1	16	11	28	67	-39	17.48	-6.48
12	Arenas de Getxo	22	3	3	16	9	17	56	-39	14.61	-5.61

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Real Betis	2051	34	25.48	+8.52	99.5%	13	20	23	26	28	31	39
Madrid CF	2005	33	28.64	+4.36	91.5%	15	23	26	29	31	34	40
Barcelona	1958	24	24.21	-0.21	52.8%	10	18	22	24	27	30	37
Athletic Bilbao	1940	25	26.99	-1.99	34.5%	13	21	24	27	30	33	42
Real Oviedo	1922	26	24.73	+1.27	68.1%	10	19	22	25	27	31	37
Sevilla	1884	24	21.61	+2.39	78.8%	7	16	19	22	24	28	36
Atletico Madrid	1793	21	19.30	+1.70	73.1%	6	13	17	19	22	25	33
Espanol	1777	20	21.28	-1.28	41.4%	7	15	19	21	24	27	34
Valencia	1771	20	18.18	+1.82	73.6%	6	12	16	18	21	24	33
Racing Santander	1755	17	21.49	-4.49	14.0%	8	15	19	22	24	28	35
Donostia FC	1586	11	17.48	-6.48	4.9%	5	12	15	17	20	23	34
Arenas de Getxo	1555	9	14.61	-5.61	7.1%	3	9	12	15	17	21	29

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ADG	AB	AM	BAR	DON	ESP	MC	RS	RB	RO	SEV	VAL
Arenas de Getxo	—	0-0-2 1.32	1-0-1 2.37	0-1-1 1.83	0-0-2 2.51	0-0-2 2.07	0-0-2 1.05	0-1-1 1.58	0-1-1 2.12	0-0-2 1.41	1-0-1 1.59	1-0-1 2.56
Athletic Bilbao	2-0-0 4.41	—	1-1-0 3.76	0-1-1 3.15	2-0-0 4.17	1-0-1 3.59	1-0-1 2.38	1-0-1 3.92	0-1-1 2.80	1-0-1 3.24	1-0-1 3.47	1-0-1 4.20
Atletico Madrid	1-0-1 3.36	0-1-1 1.96	—	0-1-1 2.32	1-0-1 3.07	2-0-0 2.53	0-1-1 1.86	1-1-0 2.49	1-0-1 1.95	0-1-1 2.26	1-0-1 2.84	1-0-1 2.84
Barcelona	1-1-0 3.90	1-1-0 2.58	1-1-0 3.41	—	1-0-1 3.84	0-1-1 3.46	1-0-1 2.07	1-1-0 3.10	1-0-1 2.57	1-0-1 2.95	0-0-2 3.18	1-1-0 3.80
Donostia FC	2-0-0 3.22	0-0-2 1.56	1-0-1 2.66	1-0-1 1.89	—	0-0-2 2.21	0-0-2 1.96	0-0-2 2.42	0-0-2 1.93	0-0-2 1.88	0-1-1 2.23	1-0-1 2.68
Espanol	2-0-0 3.66	1-0-1 2.14	0-0-2 3.21	1-1-0 2.27	2-0-0 3.52	—	0-0-2 1.79	1-0-1 2.86	0-1-1 2.53	1-0-1 2.18	0-0-2 3.05	1-0-1 3.20
Madrid CF	2-0-0 4.69	1-0-1 3.35	1-1-0 3.87	1-0-1 3.66	2-0-0 3.77	2-0-0 3.94	—	2-0-0 3.80	0-0-2 3.24	2-0-0 3.23	2-0-0 3.69	1-0-1 4.25
Racing Santander	1-1-0 4.15	1-0-1 1.81	0-1-1 3.23	0-1-1 2.62	2-0-0 3.31	1-0-1 2.87	0-0-2 1.93	—	0-0-2 2.12	0-0-2 2.64	1-0-1 2.79	1-0-1 3.25
Real Betis	1-1-0 3.62	1-1-0 2.93	1-0-1 3.78	1-0-1 3.16	2-0-0 3.80	1-1-0 3.20	2-0-0 2.49	2-0-0 3.61	—	2-0-0 3.01	1-1-0 3.32	1-0-1 3.77
Real Oviedo	2-0-0 4.32	1-0-1 2.49	1-1-0 3.47	1-0-1 2.78	2-0-0 3.85	1-0-1 3.55	0-0-2 2.50	2-0-0 3.09	0-0-2 2.72	—	1-0-1 3.47	1-1-0 3.31
Sevilla	1-0-1 4.14	1-0-1 2.26	1-0-1 2.89	2-0-0 2.55	1-1-0 3.50	2-0-0 2.68	0-0-2 2.04	1-0-1 2.94	0-1-1 2.41	1-0-1 2.26	—	1-0-1 3.30
Valencia	1-0-1 3.16	1-0-1 1.53	1-0-1 2.88	0-1-1 1.93	1-0-1 3.05	1-0-1 2.53	1-0-1 1.49	1-0-1 2.48	1-0-1 1.96	0-1-1 2.42	1-0-1 2.43	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.62	+4.3
Allowed	0.74	-5.1
Differential	0.90	+3.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.79%	3.79%	3.41%	2.65%	4.55%	2.65%	20.83%
1	3.79%	2.27%	5.68%	5.68%	3.03%	1.14%	21.59%
2	3.41%	5.68%	5.30%	3.79%	2.65%	3.03%	23.86%
3	2.65%	5.68%	3.79%	0.76%	0.38%	1.14%	14.39%
4	4.55%	3.03%	2.65%	0.38%	0.76%	—	11.36%
5+	2.65%	1.14%	3.03%	1.14%	—	—	7.95%
Total	20.83%	21.59%	23.86%	14.39%	11.36%	7.95%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.05	2.05	+0.00
SD	1.72	1.72	2.73
CV	0.84	0.84	—
Max	8	8	+8
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	54.55%
1	—	—	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	22.73%
2	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	22.73%	27.27%	13.64%	18.18%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.77	2.55	-1.77
SD	1.02	1.92	2.29
CV	1.32	0.75	—
Max	3	8	+2
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	22.73%
1	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
2	—	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	18.18%
3	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%	9.09%
4	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	27.27%
5+	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
Total	31.82%	22.73%	22.73%	9.09%	—	13.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.73	1.68	+1.05
SD	2.25	1.78	3.34
CV	0.83	1.06	—
Max	8	6	+8
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	13.64%	—	9.09%	—	27.27%
1	4.55%	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
2	4.55%	—	13.64%	—	—	4.55%	22.73%
3	—	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	13.64%	13.64%	45.45%	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.82	2.05	-0.23
SD	1.59	1.29	2.18
CV	0.88	0.63	—
Max	5	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
1	—	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	27.27%
2	—	—	13.64%	4.55%	—	4.55%	22.73%
3	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	18.18%
4	13.64%	—	—	—	—	—	13.64%
5+	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
Total	22.73%	13.64%	36.36%	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.50	2.00	+0.50
SD	1.50	1.83	2.58
CV	0.60	0.91	—
Max	5	8	+5
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	13.64%	4.55%	31.82%
1	4.55%	—	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	31.82%
2	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	18.18%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	13.64%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.64%	13.64%	18.18%	9.09%	27.27%	18.18%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.27	3.05	-1.77
SD	1.20	2.19	2.67
CV	0.94	0.72	—
Max	4	7	+4
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	9.09%
1	—	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	27.27%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	9.09%	27.27%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	13.64%
4	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	27.27%	27.27%	4.55%	9.09%	22.73%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.14	2.68	-0.55
SD	1.32	2.19	2.87
CV	0.62	0.82	—
Max	4	8	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	—	—	—	4.55%	13.64%
1	—	—	—	—	9.09%	—	9.09%
2	9.09%	18.18%	4.55%	—	—	—	31.82%
3	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	—	18.18%
Total	18.18%	40.91%	27.27%	—	9.09%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.77	1.55	+1.23
SD	2.14	1.34	2.67
CV	0.77	0.86	—
Max	8	5	+6
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	22.73%
1	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	27.27%
2	—	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	31.82%
3	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	18.18%	13.64%	27.27%	27.27%	9.09%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.68	2.09	-0.41
SD	1.55	1.41	2.46
CV	0.92	0.67	—
Max	6	5	+6
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	—	—	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
1	22.73%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
2	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	22.73%
3	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	59.09%	18.18%	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.95	0.86	+1.09
SD	1.46	1.32	2.11
CV	0.75	1.53	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	13.64%
1	—	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
2	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	18.18%
3	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
4	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	27.27%
5+	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	9.09%
Total	13.64%	22.73%	18.18%	31.82%	9.09%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.73	2.14	+0.59
SD	1.91	1.39	2.44
CV	0.70	0.65	—
Max	8	5	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	18.18%
1	—	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	13.64%
2	4.55%	—	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	22.73%
3	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
4	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
5+	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	22.73%	22.73%	22.73%	22.73%	9.09%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.41	1.73	+0.68
SD	1.82	1.32	2.57
CV	0.75	0.76	—
Max	7	4	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	18.18%
1	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	27.27%
2	13.64%	9.09%	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	36.36%
3	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	9.09%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	18.18%	27.27%	4.55%	22.73%	18.18%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.82	2.23	-0.41
SD	1.62	1.69	2.68
CV	0.89	0.76	—
Max	7	5	+6
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Real Betis	34	25.48	+8.52
2	Madrid CF	33	28.64	+4.36
3	Sevilla	24	21.61	+2.39
4	Valencia	20	18.18	+1.82
5	Atletico Madrid	21	19.30	+1.70

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Donostia FC	11	17.48	-6.48
2	Arenas de Getxo	9	14.61	-5.61
3	Racing Santander	17	21.49	-4.49
4	Athletic Bilbao	25	26.99	-1.99
5	Espanol	20	21.28	-1.28

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Real Betis	5	Dec 2 – Dec 30	1 in 103
2	Sevilla	4	Feb 24 – Mar 17	1 in 36
3	Madrid CF	6	Mar 10 – Apr 14	1 in 18
4	Valencia	2	Feb 17 – Feb 24	1 in 15
5	Real Oviedo	3	Feb 3 – Feb 17	1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Espanol	3	Feb 3 – Feb 17	1 in 226
2	Arenas de Getxo	8	Mar 10 – Apr 28	1 in 53
3	Donostia FC	7	Mar 17 – Apr 28	1 in 29
4	Athletic Bilbao	2	Feb 17 – Feb 24	1 in 15
5	Racing Santander	3	Dec 9 – Dec 23	1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Atletico Madrid	9	Jan 20 – Mar 17	1 in 442
2	Real Betis	7	Mar 17 – Apr 28	1 in 41
3	Real Oviedo	5	Jan 20 – Feb 17	1 in 12
4	Madrid CF	8	Feb 24 – Apr 14	1 in 10
5	Sevilla	4	Feb 24 – Mar 17	1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Arenas de Getxo	13	Feb 3 – Apr 28	1 in 27
2	Racing Santander	6	Jan 6 – Feb 10	1 in 23
3	Barcelona	5	Jan 6 – Feb 3	1 in 21
4	Real Betis	3	Feb 24 – Mar 10	1 in 15
5	Espanol	4	Mar 3 – Mar 24	1 in 9

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Real Betis	13.21%	17.92%	17.89%	15.05%	12.02%	8.76%	6.27%	4.18%	2.47%	1.38%	0.70%	0.15%
Madrid CF	43.57%	22.71%	13.68%	8.26%	5.70%	2.95%	1.60%	0.89%	0.37%	0.22%	0.04%	0.01%
Real Oviedo	8.18%	12.64%	15.80%	16.82%	14.16%	11.27%	7.96%	5.80%	3.36%	2.34%	1.24%	0.43%
Athletic Bilbao	23.84%	23.62%	16.62%	12.52%	8.57%	6.35%	3.78%	2.45%	1.40%	0.58%	0.24%	0.03%
Sevilla	1.50%	4.04%	7.32%	9.89%	11.78%	13.86%	13.43%	12.85%	10.50%	7.68%	4.96%	2.19%
Barcelona	6.42%	11.02%	14.15%	14.95%	14.56%	12.13%	9.55%	7.05%	5.26%	2.76%	1.56%	0.59%
Atletico Madrid	0.23%	1.04%	1.84%	3.61%	5.68%	8.84%	11.86%	14.40%	16.43%	16.61%	12.52%	6.94%
Valencia	0.17%	0.40%	1.15%	2.10%	3.75%	6.17%	8.67%	11.83%	15.99%	18.98%	18.56%	12.23%
Espanol	1.37%	2.75%	5.17%	7.00%	9.53%	12.33%	14.52%	14.46%	13.28%	10.35%	6.66%	2.58%
Racing Santander	1.39%	3.49%	5.59%	8.08%	11.03%	12.60%	14.22%	12.96%	12.14%	9.18%	6.64%	2.68%
Donostia FC	0.11%	0.37%	0.67%	1.47%	2.62%	3.72%	6.15%	9.78%	12.46%	18.40%	24.11%	20.14%
Arenas de Getxo	0.01%	—	0.12%	0.25%	0.60%	1.02%	1.99%	3.35%	6.34%	11.52%	22.77%	52.03%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+37.12%

Strong Edge

62.12%12.88%25.00%

Elo Value

Home Edge

133 Elo

0.008 goals per Elo point

0135.44400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+1.17 goals

Home-Tilted

-2+1.02+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.6

Top-Heavy

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

13%

Real Betis, 3rd of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.05/gm

Photo Finish

00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.9 * Some Luck: 2.9 to 4.36 * Lucky: 4.36 to 5.81 * Wild Swing: 5.81 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.49 * Close: 1.49 to 2.23 * Off: 2.23 to 2.98 * Way Off: 2.98 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.81 * A Surprise: 0.81 to 1.3 * Several Surprises: 1.3 to 1.78 * Many Surprises: 1.78 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.13 points

Some Luck

03.639

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.33

Pinpoint

01.864

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

99.53%

Real Betis

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

4.91%

Donostia FC

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

2 of 2

Many Surprises

00.82

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.18

Top-Heavy

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.60

Strong Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

74%

Clear Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 96%

95%

Dominant

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

40%

Frequent

0%42%100%

Blowouts

Expected

35%

Very Frequent

0%36%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.49

Highly Predictable

00.482

Matchup Imbalance

0.53

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.30

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.58

Some Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

24%

Chalky

0%20%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

21%

As Expected

0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.

Probability calibration

0.93

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.04

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.066

Well Within Noise

00.1180.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Madrid CF	99.95%	0.05%
Athletic Bilbao	99.73%	0.27%
Real Betis	99.15%	0.85%
Real Oviedo	98.33%	1.67%
Barcelona	97.85%	2.15%
Sevilla	92.85%	7.15%
Espanol	90.76%	9.24%
Racing Santander	90.68%	9.32%
Atletico Madrid	80.54%	19.46%
Valencia	69.21%	30.79%
Donostia FC	55.75%	44.25%
Arenas de Getxo	25.20%	74.80%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1934-12-02	Real Oviedo	W 4-0	1974	1839	77.0%	13.4%	9.5%	+13.6	2
1934-12-02	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 0-4	1839	1974	9.5%	13.4%	77.0%	-13.6	0
1934-12-02	Arenas de Getxo	W 4-0	1850	1756	74.7%	13.5%	11.8%	+16.7	2
1934-12-02	@ Barcelona	L 0-4	1756	1850	11.8%	13.5%	74.7%	-16.7	0
1934-12-02	Donostia FC	W 2-1	1843	1793	71.7%	13.5%	14.7%	+5.4	2
1934-12-02	@ Racing Santander	L 1-2	1793	1843	14.7%	13.5%	71.7%	-5.4	0
1934-12-02	Real Betis	L 0-1	1950	1804	77.6%	13.4%	9.0%	-27.0	0
1934-12-02	@ Madrid CF	W 1-0	1804	1950	9.0%	13.4%	77.6%	+27.0	2
1934-12-02	Atletico Madrid	W 4-0	1801	1779	69.5%	13.6%	16.9%	+23.5	2
1934-12-02	@ Sevilla	L 0-4	1779	1801	16.9%	13.6%	69.5%	-23.5	0
1934-12-02	Espanol	L 1-3	1797	1813	66.2%	13.6%	20.2%	-37.3	0
1934-12-02	@ Valencia	W 3-1	1813	1797	20.2%	13.6%	66.2%	+37.3	2
1934-12-09	Valencia	W 2-1	1739	1760	65.7%	13.6%	20.7%	+7.5	2
1934-12-09	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 1-2	1760	1739	20.7%	13.6%	65.7%	-7.5	0
1934-12-09	Racing Santander	W 3-1	1755	1848	57.9%	13.7%	28.5%	+17.3	2
1934-12-09	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-3	1848	1755	28.5%	13.7%	57.9%	-17.3	2
1934-12-09	Athletic Bilbao	L 1-3	1850	1988	52.2%	13.7%	34.1%	-29.6	2
1934-12-09	@ Espanol	W 3-1	1988	1850	34.1%	13.7%	52.2%	+29.6	4
1934-12-09	Barcelona	W 2-1	1831	1867	64.2%	13.6%	22.2%	+8.0	4
1934-12-09	@ Real Betis	L 1-2	1867	1831	22.2%	13.6%	64.2%	-8.0	2
1934-12-09	Sevilla	W 4-2	1825	1824	67.7%	13.6%	18.7%	+10.5	2
1934-12-09	@ Real Oviedo	L 2-4	1824	1825	18.7%	13.6%	67.7%	-10.5	2
1934-12-09	Madrid CF	L 1-2	1787	1923	52.5%	13.7%	33.9%	-17.2	0
1934-12-09	@ Donostia FC	W 2-1	1923	1787	33.9%	13.7%	52.5%	+17.2	2
1934-12-16	Real Betis	L 0-3	1747	1839	58.0%	13.7%	28.4%	-54.8	2
1934-12-16	@ Arenas de Getxo	W 3-0	1839	1747	28.4%	13.7%	58.0%	+54.8	6
1934-12-16	Donostia FC	W 4-0	1859	1770	74.4%	13.5%	12.1%	+17.2	4
1934-12-16	@ Barcelona	L 0-4	1770	1859	12.1%	13.5%	74.4%	-17.2	0
1934-12-16	Real Oviedo	L 1-3	1831	1836	67.2%	13.6%	19.2%	-37.9	2
1934-12-16	@ Racing Santander	W 3-1	1836	1831	19.2%	13.6%	67.2%	+37.8	4
1934-12-16	Atletico Madrid	W 2-0	1940	1773	78.6%	13.3%	8.1%	+6.1	4
1934-12-16	@ Madrid CF	L 0-2	1773	1940	8.1%	13.3%	78.6%	-6.1	2
1934-12-16	Espanol	W 5-1	1814	1820	67.0%	13.6%	19.4%	+22.2	4
1934-12-16	@ Sevilla	L 1-5	1820	1814	19.4%	13.6%	67.0%	-22.2	2
1934-12-16	Athletic Bilbao	W 1-0	1753	2018	34.6%	13.6%	51.8%	+18.0	2
1934-12-16	@ Valencia	L 0-1	2018	1753	51.8%	13.6%	34.6%	-18.0	4
1934-12-23	Sevilla	W 4-0	2000	1836	78.4%	13.4%	8.2%	+11.8	6
1934-12-23	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 0-4	1836	2000	8.2%	13.4%	78.4%	-11.8	4
1934-12-23	Barcelona	L 1-3	1766	1876	55.9%	13.7%	30.5%	-31.6	2
1934-12-23	@ Atletico Madrid	W 3-1	1876	1766	30.5%	13.7%	55.9%	+31.5	6
1934-12-23	Racing Santander	W 4-2	1798	1793	68.1%	13.6%	18.3%	+10.3	4
1934-12-23	@ Espanol	L 2-4	1793	1798	18.3%	13.6%	68.1%	-10.3	2
1934-12-23	Valencia	W 3-0	1893	1771	76.4%	13.4%	10.2%	+11.1	8
1934-12-23	@ Real Betis	L 0-3	1771	1893	10.2%	13.4%	76.4%	-11.1	2
1934-12-23	Madrid CF	L 0-3	1874	1946	60.3%	13.6%	26.1%	-56.9	4
1934-12-23	@ Real Oviedo	W 3-0	1946	1874	26.1%	13.6%	60.3%	+56.9	6
1934-12-23	Arenas de Getxo	W 3-2	1753	1692	72.5%	13.5%	14.0%	+4.9	2
1934-12-23	@ Donostia FC	L 2-3	1692	1753	14.0%	13.5%	72.5%	-4.9	2
1934-12-30	Atletico Madrid	W 3-1	1687	1735	62.9%	13.6%	23.4%	+14.5	4
1934-12-30	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 1-3	1735	1687	23.4%	13.6%	62.9%	-14.5	2
1934-12-30	Real Oviedo	W 5-2	1907	1817	74.5%	13.5%	12.0%	+9.5	8
1934-12-30	@ Barcelona	L 2-5	1817	1907	12.0%	13.5%	74.5%	-9.5	4
1934-12-30	Athletic Bilbao	W 6-0	1783	2011	39.6%	13.6%	46.8%	+86.0	4
1934-12-30	@ Racing Santander	L 0-6	2011	1783	46.8%	13.6%	39.6%	-86.0	6
1934-12-30	Donostia FC	W 1-0	1905	1758	77.6%	13.4%	9.0%	+3.6	10
1934-12-30	@ Real Betis	L 0-1	1758	1905	9.0%	13.4%	77.6%	-3.6	2
1934-12-30	Espanol	W 7-2	2003	1809	79.7%	13.3%	7.0%	+8.6	8
1934-12-30	@ Madrid CF	L 2-7	1809	2003	7.0%	13.3%	79.7%	-8.6	4
1934-12-30	Sevilla	W 2-1	1759	1824	61.1%	13.6%	25.2%	+9.0	4
1934-12-30	@ Valencia	L 1-2	1824	1759	25.2%	13.6%	61.1%	-9.0	4
1935-01-06	Madrid CF	W 4-1	1926	2012	58.7%	13.7%	27.7%	+23.9	8
1935-01-06	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-4	2012	1926	27.7%	13.7%	58.7%	-23.9	8
1935-01-06	Real Betis	W 4-2	1720	1908	45.4%	13.7%	41.0%	+21.4	4
1935-01-06	@ Atletico Madrid	L 2-4	1908	1720	41.0%	13.7%	45.4%	-21.3	10
1935-01-06	Barcelona	W 4-1	1800	1917	54.9%	13.7%	31.4%	+26.7	6
1935-01-06	@ Espanol	L 1-4	1917	1800	31.4%	13.7%	54.9%	-26.7	8
1935-01-06	Arenas de Getxo	W 4-1	1807	1701	75.4%	13.5%	11.1%	+10.2	6
1935-01-06	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-4	1701	1807	11.1%	13.5%	75.4%	-10.2	4
1935-01-06	Valencia	W 3-1	1754	1768	66.3%	13.6%	20.1%	+12.6	4
1935-01-06	@ Donostia FC	L 1-3	1768	1754	20.1%	13.6%	66.3%	-12.6	4
1935-01-06	Racing Santander	W 2-0	1815	1869	62.4%	13.6%	24.0%	+17.1	6
1935-01-06	@ Sevilla	L 0-2	1869	1815	24.0%	13.6%	62.4%	-17.1	4
1935-01-13	Espanol	L 0-4	1691	1827	52.5%	13.7%	33.8%	-65.2	4
1935-01-13	@ Arenas de Getxo	W 4-0	1827	1691	33.8%	13.7%	52.5%	+65.2	8
1935-01-13	Athletic Bilbao	D 2-2	1890	1949	61.7%	13.6%	24.6%	-2.3	9
1935-01-13	@ Barcelona	D 2-2	1949	1890	24.6%	13.6%	61.7%	+2.3	9
1935-01-13	Real Oviedo	W 2-1	1887	1818	73.1%	13.5%	13.4%	+5.0	12
1935-01-13	@ Real Betis	L 1-2	1818	1887	13.4%	13.5%	73.1%	-5.0	6
1935-01-13	Sevilla	W 3-1	1988	1832	78.0%	13.4%	8.6%	+5.6	10
1935-01-13	@ Madrid CF	L 1-3	1832	1988	8.6%	13.4%	78.0%	-5.6	6
1935-01-13	Atletico Madrid	W 4-0	1767	1742	69.8%	13.6%	16.7%	+23.2	6
1935-01-13	@ Donostia FC	L 0-4	1742	1767	16.7%	13.6%	69.8%	-23.2	4
1935-01-13	Racing Santander	W 2-0	1756	1852	57.5%	13.7%	28.8%	+20.2	6
1935-01-13	@ Valencia	L 0-2	1852	1756	28.8%	13.7%	57.5%	-20.2	4
1935-01-20	Arenas de Getxo	W 8-0	1952	1626	83.6%	12.9%	3.4%	+9.6	11
1935-01-20	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 0-8	1626	1952	3.4%	12.9%	83.6%	-9.6	4
1935-01-20	Valencia	W 5-2	1719	1776	61.9%	13.6%	24.4%	+18.5	6
1935-01-20	@ Atletico Madrid	L 2-5	1776	1719	24.4%	13.6%	61.9%	-18.5	6
1935-01-20	Real Betis	D 1-1	1892	1892	67.6%	13.6%	18.8%	-4.2	9
1935-01-20	@ Espanol	D 1-1	1892	1892	18.8%	13.6%	67.6%	+4.2	13
1935-01-20	Madrid CF	L 1-2	1831	1994	48.9%	13.7%	37.4%	-16.1	4
1935-01-20	@ Racing Santander	W 2-1	1994	1831	37.4%	13.7%	48.9%	+16.1	12
1935-01-20	Donostia FC	W 4-0	1813	1790	69.6%	13.6%	16.9%	+23.4	8
1935-01-20	@ Real Oviedo	L 0-4	1790	1813	16.9%	13.6%	69.6%	-23.4	6
1935-01-20	Barcelona	W 3-1	1827	1888	61.5%	13.6%	24.8%	+15.3	8
1935-01-20	@ Sevilla	L 1-3	1888	1827	24.8%	13.6%	61.5%	-15.3	9
1935-01-27	Sevilla	W 3-2	1616	1842	40.0%	13.6%	46.4%	+14.6	6
1935-01-27	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 2-3	1842	1616	46.4%	13.6%	40.0%	-14.6	8
1935-01-27	Real Oviedo	D 3-3	1737	1836	57.1%	13.7%	29.2%	-1.4	7
1935-01-27	@ Atletico Madrid	D 3-3	1836	1737	29.2%	13.7%	57.1%	+1.4	9
1935-01-27	Racing Santander	D 1-1	1873	1815	72.2%	13.5%	14.2%	-5.0	10
1935-01-27	@ Barcelona	D 1-1	1815	1873	14.2%	13.5%	72.2%	+5.0	5
1935-01-27	Athletic Bilbao	W 1-0	1896	1961	61.1%	13.6%	25.3%	+9.5	15
1935-01-27	@ Real Betis	L 0-1	1961	1896	25.3%	13.6%	61.1%	-9.5	11
1935-01-27	Espanol	L 1-4	1766	1888	54.4%	13.7%	32.0%	-43.5	6
1935-01-27	@ Donostia FC	W 4-1	1888	1766	32.0%	13.7%	54.4%	+43.5	11
1935-01-27	Madrid CF	W 4-1	1758	2010	36.3%	13.6%	50.1%	+40.3	8
1935-01-27	@ Valencia	L 1-4	2010	1758	50.1%	13.6%	36.3%	-40.3	12
1935-02-03	Donostia FC	W 7-0	1952	1723	81.0%	13.2%	5.8%	+14.2	13
1935-02-03	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 0-7	1723	1952	5.8%	13.2%	81.0%	-14.2	6
1935-02-03	Atletico Madrid	L 0-2	1931	1736	79.8%	13.3%	6.9%	-52.4	11
1935-02-03	@ Espanol	W 2-0	1736	1931	6.9%	13.3%	79.8%	+52.4	9
1935-02-03	Arenas de Getxo	D 0-0	1820	1631	79.5%	13.3%	7.2%	-7.2	6
1935-02-03	@ Racing Santander	D 0-0	1631	1820	7.2%	13.3%	79.5%	+7.2	7
1935-02-03	Barcelona	W 8-2	1969	1868	75.2%	13.5%	11.3%	+16.1	14
1935-02-03	@ Madrid CF	L 2-8	1868	1969	11.3%	13.5%	75.2%	-16.1	10
1935-02-03	Real Betis	L 0-3	1827	1905	59.6%	13.7%	26.7%	-56.3	8
1935-02-03	@ Sevilla	W 3-0	1905	1827	26.7%	13.7%	59.6%	+56.3	17
1935-02-03	Real Oviedo	L 0-4	1798	1837	63.8%	13.6%	22.6%	-78.7	8
1935-02-03	@ Valencia	W 4-0	1837	1798	22.6%	13.6%	63.8%	+78.7	11
1935-02-10	Madrid CF	L 1-2	1638	1986	24.6%	13.5%	61.9%	-8.8	7
1935-02-10	@ Arenas de Getxo	W 2-1	1986	1638	61.9%	13.5%	24.6%	+8.8	16
1935-02-10	Athletic Bilbao	D 2-2	1788	1966	46.8%	13.7%	39.6%	-0.4	10
1935-02-10	@ Atletico Madrid	D 2-2	1966	1788	39.6%	13.7%	46.8%	+0.4	14
1935-02-10	Valencia	W 3-2	1851	1719	76.9%	13.4%	9.7%	+3.5	12
1935-02-10	@ Barcelona	L 2-3	1719	1851	9.7%	13.4%	76.9%	-3.5	8
1935-02-10	Racing Santander	W 3-1	1962	1813	77.7%	13.4%	8.9%	+5.8	19
1935-02-10	@ Real Betis	L 1-3	1813	1962	8.9%	13.4%	77.7%	-5.8	6
1935-02-10	Espanol	W 8-3	1916	1879	70.8%	13.6%	15.7%	+16.9	13
1935-02-10	@ Real Oviedo	L 3-8	1879	1916	15.7%	13.6%	70.8%	-16.9	11
1935-02-10	Sevilla	D 0-0	1709	1771	61.4%	13.6%	25.0%	-3.4	7
1935-02-10	@ Donostia FC	D 0-0	1771	1709	25.0%	13.6%	61.4%	+3.4	9
1935-02-17	Barcelona	D 2-2	1629	1855	40.0%	13.6%	46.4%	+0.4	8
1935-02-17	@ Arenas de Getxo	D 2-2	1855	1629	46.4%	13.6%	40.0%	-0.4	13
1935-02-17	Sevilla	W 1-0	1788	1775	68.8%	13.6%	17.6%	+6.8	12
1935-02-17	@ Atletico Madrid	L 0-1	1775	1788	17.6%	13.6%	68.8%	-6.8	9
1935-02-17	Valencia	L 1-2	1862	1716	77.6%	13.4%	9.0%	-25.4	11
1935-02-17	@ Espanol	W 2-1	1716	1862	9.0%	13.4%	77.6%	+25.4	10
1935-02-17	Madrid CF	W 1-0	1968	1994	65.1%	13.6%	21.3%	+8.1	21
1935-02-17	@ Real Betis	L 0-1	1994	1968	21.3%	13.6%	65.1%	-8.1	16
1935-02-17	Athletic Bilbao	W 3-2	1933	1966	64.5%	13.6%	21.9%	+7.5	15
1935-02-17	@ Real Oviedo	L 2-3	1966	1933	21.9%	13.6%	64.5%	-7.5	14
1935-02-17	Racing Santander	L 2-3	1705	1807	56.8%	13.7%	29.6%	-17.5	7
1935-02-17	@ Donostia FC	W 3-2	1807	1705	29.6%	13.7%	56.8%	+17.5	8
1935-02-24	Espanol	L 1-2	1959	1836	76.4%	13.4%	10.2%	-25.0	14
1935-02-24	@ Athletic Bilbao	W 2-1	1836	1959	10.2%	13.4%	76.4%	+25.0	13
1935-02-24	Real Betis	W 4-0	1855	1976	54.4%	13.7%	32.0%	+42.0	15
1935-02-24	@ Barcelona	L 0-4	1976	1855	32.0%	13.7%	54.4%	-42.0	21
1935-02-24	Atletico Madrid	D 2-2	1825	1794	70.2%	13.6%	16.2%	-3.5	9
1935-02-24	@ Racing Santander	D 2-2	1794	1825	16.2%	13.6%	70.2%	+3.5	13
1935-02-24	Donostia FC	W 2-0	1986	1688	83.0%	13.0%	4.0%	+3.0	18
1935-02-24	@ Madrid CF	L 0-2	1688	1986	4.0%	13.0%	83.0%	-3.0	7
1935-02-24	Real Oviedo	W 3-1	1768	1940	47.5%	13.7%	38.9%	+22.8	11
1935-02-24	@ Sevilla	L 1-3	1940	1768	38.9%	13.7%	47.5%	-22.8	15
1935-02-24	Arenas de Getxo	W 2-0	1741	1630	75.8%	13.5%	10.8%	+8.1	12
1935-02-24	@ Valencia	L 0-2	1630	1741	10.8%	13.5%	75.8%	-8.1	8
1935-03-03	Valencia	W 4-1	1934	1749	79.3%	13.3%	7.4%	+6.8	16
1935-03-03	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-4	1749	1934	7.4%	13.3%	79.3%	-6.8	12
1935-03-03	Madrid CF	D 2-2	1798	1989	44.9%	13.7%	41.5%	-0.2	14
1935-03-03	@ Atletico Madrid	D 2-2	1989	1798	41.5%	13.7%	44.9%	+0.2	19
1935-03-03	Sevilla	L 1-4	1861	1790	73.2%	13.5%	13.3%	-58.5	13
1935-03-03	@ Espanol	W 4-1	1790	1861	13.3%	13.5%	73.2%	+58.5	13
1935-03-03	Arenas de Getxo	D 0-0	1934	1622	83.3%	13.0%	3.7%	-8.0	22
1935-03-03	@ Real Betis	D 0-0	1622	1934	3.7%	13.0%	83.3%	+8.0	9
1935-03-03	Racing Santander	W 3-0	1918	1821	74.9%	13.5%	11.7%	+12.7	17
1935-03-03	@ Real Oviedo	L 0-3	1821	1918	11.7%	13.5%	74.9%	-12.7	9
1935-03-03	Barcelona	W 2-1	1685	1897	41.9%	13.6%	44.4%	+14.8	9
1935-03-03	@ Donostia FC	L 1-2	1897	1685	44.4%	13.6%	41.9%	-14.8	15
1935-03-10	Donostia FC	L 0-1	1630	1700	60.6%	13.6%	25.8%	-20.9	9
1935-03-10	@ Arenas de Getxo	W 1-0	1700	1630	25.8%	13.6%	60.6%	+20.9	11
1935-03-10	Atletico Madrid	D 0-0	1882	1798	74.1%	13.5%	12.4%	-6.0	16
1935-03-10	@ Barcelona	D 0-0	1798	1882	12.4%	13.5%	74.1%	+6.0	15
1935-03-10	Espanol	W 2-1	1809	1803	68.1%	13.6%	18.3%	+6.7	11
1935-03-10	@ Racing Santander	L 1-2	1803	1809	18.3%	13.6%	68.1%	-6.7	13
1935-03-10	Real Oviedo	W 2-1	1989	1930	72.4%	13.5%	14.1%	+5.2	21
1935-03-10	@ Madrid CF	L 1-2	1930	1989	14.1%	13.5%	72.4%	-5.2	17
1935-03-10	Athletic Bilbao	W 3-0	1849	1941	58.0%	13.7%	28.3%	+28.9	15
1935-03-10	@ Sevilla	L 0-3	1941	1849	28.3%	13.7%	58.0%	-28.9	16
1935-03-10	Real Betis	W 3-1	1742	1926	46.0%	13.7%	40.4%	+23.5	14
1935-03-10	@ Valencia	L 1-3	1926	1742	40.4%	13.7%	46.0%	-23.5	22
1935-03-17	Racing Santander	W 4-2	1912	1815	74.9%	13.5%	11.7%	+6.8	18
1935-03-17	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 2-4	1815	1912	11.7%	13.5%	74.9%	-6.8	11
1935-03-17	Arenas de Getxo	W 3-1	1804	1609	79.8%	13.3%	7.0%	+4.6	17
1935-03-17	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-3	1609	1804	7.0%	13.3%	79.8%	-4.6	9
1935-03-17	Madrid CF	L 2-4	1796	1995	43.9%	13.6%	42.5%	-22.6	13
1935-03-17	@ Espanol	W 4-2	1995	1796	42.5%	13.6%	43.9%	+22.6	23
1935-03-17	Barcelona	W 4-3	1925	1876	71.7%	13.5%	14.8%	+5.1	19
1935-03-17	@ Real Oviedo	L 3-4	1876	1925	14.8%	13.5%	71.7%	-5.0	16
1935-03-17	Real Betis	L 2-4	1720	1902	46.2%	13.7%	40.1%	-23.7	11
1935-03-17	@ Donostia FC	W 4-2	1902	1720	40.1%	13.7%	46.2%	+23.7	24
1935-03-17	Valencia	W 4-2	1878	1766	75.8%	13.4%	10.8%	+6.2	17
1935-03-17	@ Sevilla	L 2-4	1766	1878	10.8%	13.4%	75.8%	-6.3	14
1935-03-24	Real Oviedo	L 1-2	1604	1930	27.0%	13.5%	59.5%	-9.5	9
1935-03-24	@ Arenas de Getxo	W 2-1	1930	1604	59.5%	13.5%	27.0%	+9.5	21
1935-03-24	Espanol	D 2-2	1871	1774	74.9%	13.5%	11.6%	-4.1	17
1935-03-24	@ Barcelona	D 2-2	1774	1871	11.6%	13.5%	74.9%	+4.1	14
1935-03-24	Sevilla	W 3-2	1809	1884	59.9%	13.7%	26.4%	+8.9	13
1935-03-24	@ Racing Santander	L 2-3	1884	1809	26.4%	13.7%	59.9%	-8.9	17
1935-03-24	Atletico Madrid	W 2-0	1926	1808	76.1%	13.4%	10.5%	+7.9	26
1935-03-24	@ Real Betis	L 0-2	1808	1926	10.5%	13.4%	76.1%	-7.9	17
1935-03-24	Athletic Bilbao	W 5-2	2017	1919	75.0%	13.5%	11.5%	+9.2	25
1935-03-24	@ Madrid CF	L 2-5	1919	2017	11.5%	13.5%	75.0%	-9.1	18
1935-03-24	Donostia FC	W 7-1	1760	1697	72.7%	13.5%	13.8%	+23.5	16
1935-03-24	@ Valencia	L 1-7	1697	1760	13.8%	13.5%	72.7%	-23.5	11
1935-03-31	Barcelona	L 3-5	1909	1867	71.2%	13.6%	15.3%	-34.0	18
1935-03-31	@ Athletic Bilbao	W 5-3	1867	1909	15.3%	13.6%	71.2%	+34.0	19
1935-03-31	Donostia FC	W 3-1	1800	1673	76.6%	13.4%	10.0%	+6.5	19
1935-03-31	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-3	1673	1800	10.0%	13.4%	76.6%	-6.5	11
1935-03-31	Arenas de Getxo	W 2-0	1778	1595	79.3%	13.3%	7.4%	+5.6	16
1935-03-31	@ Espanol	L 0-2	1595	1778	7.4%	13.3%	79.3%	-5.6	9
1935-03-31	Valencia	W 5-0	1818	1783	70.5%	13.6%	15.9%	+27.4	15
1935-03-31	@ Racing Santander	L 0-5	1783	1818	15.9%	13.6%	70.5%	-27.4	16
1935-03-31	Real Betis	L 0-1	1940	1934	68.2%	13.6%	18.2%	-23.5	21
1935-03-31	@ Real Oviedo	W 1-0	1934	1940	18.2%	13.6%	68.2%	+23.5	28
1935-03-31	Madrid CF	L 1-3	1875	2026	50.5%	13.7%	35.9%	-28.7	17
1935-03-31	@ Sevilla	W 3-1	2026	1875	35.9%	13.7%	50.5%	+28.7	27
1935-04-07	Athletic Bilbao	L 0-1	1589	1876	31.8%	13.6%	54.6%	-11.7	9
1935-04-07	@ Arenas de Getxo	W 1-0	1876	1589	54.6%	13.6%	31.8%	+11.7	20
1935-04-07	Sevilla	L 2-3	1901	1847	72.0%	13.5%	14.4%	-22.3	19
1935-04-07	@ Barcelona	W 3-2	1847	1901	14.4%	13.5%	72.0%	+22.3	19
1935-04-07	Espanol	W 5-0	1957	1783	78.9%	13.3%	7.8%	+13.8	30
1935-04-07	@ Real Betis	L 0-5	1783	1957	7.8%	13.3%	78.9%	-13.8	16
1935-04-07	Racing Santander	W 3-2	2055	1845	80.3%	13.2%	6.4%	+2.3	29
1935-04-07	@ Madrid CF	L 2-3	1845	2055	6.4%	13.2%	80.3%	-2.3	15
1935-04-07	Real Oviedo	L 3-5	1667	1916	36.7%	13.6%	49.7%	-18.3	11
1935-04-07	@ Donostia FC	W 5-3	1916	1667	49.7%	13.6%	36.7%	+18.3	23
1935-04-07	Atletico Madrid	W 2-0	1756	1807	62.6%	13.6%	23.8%	+17.0	18
1935-04-07	@ Valencia	L 0-2	1807	1756	23.8%	13.6%	62.6%	-17.0	19
1935-04-14	Real Betis	D 0-0	1887	1971	59.0%	13.7%	27.4%	-2.9	21
1935-04-14	@ Athletic Bilbao	D 0-0	1971	1887	27.4%	13.7%	59.0%	+2.9	31
1935-04-14	Donostia FC	W 4-1	1770	1648	76.3%	13.4%	10.3%	+9.5	18
1935-04-14	@ Espanol	L 1-4	1648	1770	10.3%	13.4%	76.3%	-9.5	11
1935-04-14	Barcelona	L 2-3	1843	1878	64.2%	13.6%	22.2%	-19.8	15
1935-04-14	@ Racing Santander	W 3-2	1878	1843	22.2%	13.6%	64.2%	+19.8	21
1935-04-14	Valencia	W 3-0	2057	1773	82.7%	13.1%	4.3%	+4.8	31
1935-04-14	@ Madrid CF	L 0-3	1773	2057	4.3%	13.1%	82.7%	-4.8	18
1935-04-14	Atletico Madrid	W 2-1	1935	1790	77.5%	13.4%	9.1%	+3.4	25
1935-04-14	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-2	1790	1935	9.1%	13.4%	77.5%	-3.4	19
1935-04-14	Arenas de Getxo	W 4-0	1869	1577	82.8%	13.0%	4.1%	+6.0	21
1935-04-14	@ Sevilla	L 0-4	1577	1869	4.1%	13.0%	82.8%	-6.0	9
1935-04-21	Racing Santander	L 0-1	1571	1823	36.4%	13.6%	50.0%	-13.2	9
1935-04-21	@ Arenas de Getxo	W 1-0	1823	1571	50.0%	13.6%	36.4%	+13.2	17
1935-04-21	Espanol	W 5-2	1786	1779	68.3%	13.6%	18.1%	+14.0	21
1935-04-21	@ Atletico Madrid	L 2-5	1779	1786	18.1%	13.6%	68.3%	-14.0	18
1935-04-21	Madrid CF	W 5-0	1898	2062	48.7%	13.7%	37.7%	+59.9	23
1935-04-21	@ Barcelona	L 0-5	2062	1898	37.7%	13.7%	48.7%	-59.9	31
1935-04-21	Sevilla	D 2-2	1974	1875	75.0%	13.5%	11.5%	-4.1	32
1935-04-21	@ Real Betis	D 2-2	1875	1974	11.5%	13.5%	75.0%	+4.1	22
1935-04-21	Valencia	D 4-4	1938	1768	78.7%	13.3%	8.0%	-3.4	26
1935-04-21	@ Real Oviedo	D 4-4	1768	1938	8.0%	13.3%	78.7%	+3.4	19
1935-04-22	Athletic Bilbao	L 0-4	1639	1884	37.2%	13.6%	49.1%	-48.1	11
1935-04-22	@ Donostia FC	W 4-0	1884	1639	49.1%	13.6%	37.2%	+48.1	23
1935-04-28	Atletico Madrid	W 5-2	1932	1800	76.9%	13.4%	9.7%	+7.8	25
1935-04-28	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 2-5	1800	1932	9.7%	13.4%	76.9%	-7.8	21
1935-04-28	Real Oviedo	W 3-2	1765	1935	47.9%	13.7%	38.4%	+12.4	20
1935-04-28	@ Espanol	L 2-3	1935	1765	38.4%	13.7%	47.9%	-12.4	26
1935-04-28	Real Betis	L 0-5	1836	1970	52.7%	13.7%	33.6%	-80.7	17
1935-04-28	@ Racing Santander	W 5-0	1970	1836	33.6%	13.7%	52.7%	+80.7	34
1935-04-28	Arenas de Getxo	W 6-1	2002	1558	85.7%	12.5%	1.8%	+2.6	33
1935-04-28	@ Madrid CF	L 1-6	1558	2002	1.8%	12.5%	85.7%	-2.6	9
1935-04-28	Donostia FC	W 7-2	1879	1591	82.8%	13.1%	4.2%	+5.2	24
1935-04-28	@ Sevilla	L 2-7	1591	1879	4.2%	13.1%	82.8%	-5.2	11
1935-04-28	Barcelona	D 1-1	1771	1958	45.5%	13.7%	40.8%	-0.4	20
1935-04-28	@ Valencia	D 1-1	1958	1771	40.8%	13.7%	45.5%	+0.4	24

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1935-02-03	6.94%	Atletico Madrid	1736	2	@ Espanol	1931	0
2	1934-12-02	9.01%	Real Betis	1804	1	@ Madrid CF	1950	0
3	1935-02-17	9.01%	Valencia	1716	2	@ Espanol	1862	1
4	1935-02-24	10.21%	Espanol	1836	2	@ Athletic Bilbao	1959	1
5	1935-03-03	13.28%	Sevilla	1790	4	@ Espanol	1861	1
6	1935-04-07	14.45%	Sevilla	1847	3	@ Barcelona	1901	2
7	1935-03-31	15.27%	Barcelona	1867	5	@ Athletic Bilbao	1909	3
8	1935-03-31	18.25%	Real Betis	1934	1	@ Real Oviedo	1940	0
9	1934-12-16	19.22%	Real Oviedo	1836	3	@ Racing Santander	1831	1
10	1934-12-02	20.18%	Espanol	1813	3	@ Valencia	1797	1
11	1935-04-14	22.17%	Barcelona	1878	3	@ Racing Santander	1843	2
12	1935-02-03	22.56%	Real Oviedo	1837	4	@ Valencia	1798	0
13	1935-03-10	25.81%	Donostia FC	1700	1	@ Arenas de Getxo	1630	0
14	1934-12-23	26.09%	Madrid CF	1946	3	@ Real Oviedo	1874	0
15	1935-02-03	26.72%	Real Betis	1905	3	@ Sevilla	1827	0
16	1934-12-16	28.37%	Real Betis	1839	3	@ Arenas de Getxo	1747	0
17	1935-02-17	29.56%	Racing Santander	1807	3	@ Donostia FC	1705	2
18	1934-12-23	30.47%	Barcelona	1876	3	@ Atletico Madrid	1766	1
19	1935-01-27	31.97%	Espanol	1888	4	@ Donostia FC	1766	1
20	1935-04-28	33.60%	Real Betis	1970	5	@ Racing Santander	1836	0
21	1935-01-13	33.81%	Espanol	1827	4	@ Arenas de Getxo	1691	0
22	1934-12-09	33.85%	Madrid CF	1923	2	@ Donostia FC	1787	1
23	1934-12-09	34.14%	Athletic Bilbao	1988	3	@ Espanol	1850	1
24	1934-12-16	34.60%	@ Valencia	1753	1	Athletic Bilbao	2018	0
25	1935-03-31	35.88%	Madrid CF	2026	3	@ Sevilla	1875	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1934-12-30	85.97	@ Racing Santander	6	1783	39.55%	Athletic Bilbao	0	2011	46.82%	13.63%
2	1935-04-28	80.69	Real Betis	5	1970	33.60%	@ Racing Santander	0	1836	52.74%	13.66%
3	1935-02-03	78.72	Real Oviedo	4	1837	22.56%	@ Valencia	0	1798	63.82%	13.63%
4	1935-01-13	65.22	Espanol	4	1827	33.81%	@ Arenas de Getxo	0	1691	52.53%	13.66%
5	1935-04-21	59.87	@ Barcelona	5	1898	48.69%	Madrid CF	0	2062	37.66%	13.65%
6	1935-03-03	58.55	Sevilla	4	1790	13.28%	@ Espanol	1	1861	73.22%	13.51%
7	1934-12-23	56.92	Madrid CF	3	1946	26.09%	@ Real Oviedo	0	1874	60.26%	13.64%
8	1935-02-03	56.34	Real Betis	3	1905	26.72%	@ Sevilla	0	1827	59.64%	13.65%
9	1934-12-16	54.82	Real Betis	3	1839	28.37%	@ Arenas de Getxo	0	1747	57.98%	13.65%
10	1935-02-03	52.39	Atletico Madrid	2	1736	6.94%	@ Espanol	0	1931	79.78%	13.28%
11	1935-04-22	48.10	Athletic Bilbao	4	1884	49.13%	@ Donostia FC	0	1639	37.25%	13.62%
12	1935-01-27	43.49	Espanol	4	1888	31.97%	@ Donostia FC	1	1766	54.38%	13.66%
13	1935-02-24	42.04	@ Barcelona	4	1855	54.38%	Real Betis	0	1976	31.96%	13.66%
14	1935-01-27	40.26	@ Valencia	4	1758	36.33%	Madrid CF	1	2010	50.06%	13.61%
15	1934-12-16	37.85	Real Oviedo	3	1836	19.22%	@ Racing Santander	1	1831	67.18%	13.60%
16	1934-12-02	37.28	Espanol	3	1813	20.18%	@ Valencia	1	1797	66.21%	13.61%
17	1935-03-31	33.97	Barcelona	5	1867	15.27%	@ Athletic Bilbao	3	1909	71.18%	13.55%
18	1934-12-23	31.55	Barcelona	3	1876	30.47%	@ Atletico Madrid	1	1766	55.87%	13.66%
19	1934-12-09	29.59	Athletic Bilbao	3	1988	34.14%	@ Espanol	1	1850	52.20%	13.66%
20	1935-03-10	28.89	@ Sevilla	3	1849	58.03%	Athletic Bilbao	0	1941	28.32%	13.65%
21	1935-03-31	28.69	Madrid CF	3	2026	35.88%	@ Sevilla	1	1875	50.46%	13.66%
22	1935-03-31	27.38	@ Racing Santander	5	1818	70.53%	Valencia	0	1783	15.91%	13.56%
23	1934-12-02	26.97	Real Betis	1	1804	9.01%	@ Madrid CF	0	1950	77.60%	13.38%
24	1935-01-06	26.73	@ Espanol	4	1800	54.93%	Barcelona	1	1917	31.42%	13.66%
25	1935-02-17	25.43	Valencia	2	1716	9.01%	@ Espanol	1	1862	77.60%	13.38%