1933-34 La Liga Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Athletic Bilbao

24 points · 3rd Title

Last Title: 1930-31

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Athletic Bilbao

4.17 points above expected

24 points · 19.83 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Arenas de Getxo

7.34 points below expected

10 points · 17.34 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Athletic Bilbao Champion	18	11	2	5	24	61	27	+34	19.83	+4.17
2	Madrid CF	18	10	2	6	22	41	29	+12	19.67	+2.33
3	Racing Santander	18	9	1	8	19	38	39	-1	17.80	+1.20
4	Real Betis	18	9	1	8	19	29	36	-7	17.01	+1.99
5	Real Oviedo	18	8	2	8	18	51	45	+6	17.77	+0.23
6	Donostia FC	18	7	4	7	18	29	33	-4	17.67	+0.33
7	Espanol	18	7	3	8	17	41	42	-1	17.49	-0.49
8	Valencia	18	7	3	8	17	28	38	-10	17.41	-0.41
9	Barcelona	18	8	0	10	16	42	40	+2	18.01	-2.01
10	Arenas de Getxo	18	3	4	11	10	18	49	-31	17.34	-7.34

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Athletic Bilbao	1942	24	19.83	+4.17	96.8%	11	16	18	20	21	24	31
Madrid CF	1903	22	19.67	+2.33	87.7%	11	16	18	20	21	24	31
Barcelona	1724	16	18.01	-2.01	25.5%	9	14	16	18	20	22	29
Racing Santander	1721	19	17.80	+1.20	77.0%	9	14	16	18	19	22	27
Real Oviedo	1709	18	17.77	+0.23	62.1%	7	14	16	18	19	22	28
Espanol	1664	17	17.49	-0.49	50.0%	7	14	16	17	19	21	26
Real Betis	1662	19	17.01	+1.99	85.9%	7	13	15	17	19	21	27
Valencia	1646	17	17.41	-0.41	51.1%	8	14	16	17	19	21	26
Donostia FC	1637	18	17.67	+0.33	64.9%	9	14	16	18	19	21	29
Arenas de Getxo	1564	10	17.34	-7.34	0.2%	8	14	16	17	19	21	26

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ADG	AB	BAR	DON	ESP	MC	RS	RB	RO	VAL
Arenas de Getxo	—	1-0-1 2.52	1-0-1 2.73	0-1-1 2.79	0-0-2 2.80	0-1-1 2.62	1-0-1 2.78	0-0-2 2.95	0-1-1 2.81	0-1-1 2.85
Athletic Bilbao	1-0-1 3.23	—	1-0-1 3.32	1-0-1 3.19	2-0-0 3.20	1-0-1 2.92	1-0-1 3.15	2-0-0 3.22	1-1-0 3.17	1-1-0 3.22
Barcelona	1-0-1 3.01	1-0-1 2.43	—	1-0-1 2.96	1-0-1 2.91	0-0-2 2.69	1-0-1 2.91	1-0-1 2.98	1-0-1 2.97	1-0-1 3.00
Donostia FC	1-1-0 2.96	1-0-1 2.56	1-0-1 2.78	—	0-1-1 2.88	0-0-2 2.71	1-1-0 2.78	1-1-0 2.89	1-0-1 2.85	1-0-1 2.89
Espanol	2-0-0 2.94	0-0-2 2.54	1-0-1 2.83	1-1-0 2.86	—	0-1-1 2.43	1-0-1 2.88	1-0-1 2.95	1-0-1 2.84	0-1-1 2.91
Madrid CF	1-1-0 3.12	1-0-1 2.83	2-0-0 3.06	2-0-0 3.04	1-1-0 3.32	—	1-0-1 3.24	0-0-2 3.42	1-0-1 3.13	1-0-1 3.20
Racing Santander	1-0-1 2.96	1-0-1 2.60	1-0-1 2.84	0-1-1 2.96	1-0-1 2.87	1-0-1 2.50	—	1-0-1 2.97	1-0-1 2.90	2-0-0 2.95
Real Betis	2-0-0 2.80	0-0-2 2.53	1-0-1 2.76	0-1-1 2.86	1-0-1 2.80	2-0-0 2.33	1-0-1 2.77	—	1-0-1 2.76	1-0-1 2.82
Real Oviedo	1-1-0 2.93	0-1-1 2.58	1-0-1 2.78	1-0-1 2.90	1-0-1 2.90	1-0-1 2.62	1-0-1 2.85	1-0-1 2.98	—	1-0-1 2.93
Valencia	1-1-0 2.90	0-1-1 2.53	1-0-1 2.75	1-0-1 2.85	1-1-0 2.84	1-0-1 2.55	0-0-2 2.80	1-0-1 2.93	1-0-1 2.82	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.52	+2.2
Allowed	0.76	-4.7
Differential	0.81	+2.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.22%	3.33%	3.33%	1.67%	2.22%	3.89%	16.67%
1	3.33%	3.33%	8.33%	6.11%	2.78%	2.22%	26.11%
2	3.33%	8.33%	4.44%	3.89%	0.56%	2.78%	23.33%
3	1.67%	6.11%	3.89%	2.22%	1.67%	1.11%	16.67%
4	2.22%	2.78%	0.56%	1.67%	—	—	7.22%
5+	3.89%	2.22%	2.78%	1.11%	—	—	10.00%
Total	16.67%	26.11%	23.33%	16.67%	7.22%	10.00%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.10	2.10	+0.00
SD	1.72	1.72	2.76
CV	0.82	0.82	—
Max	9	9	+9
Min	0	0	-9

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%	38.89%
1	—	5.56%	16.67%	—	11.11%	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	22.22%	22.22%	5.56%	16.67%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	2.72	-1.72
SD	1.03	2.54	2.91
CV	1.03	0.93	—
Max	3	9	+2
Min	0	0	-9

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
1	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
2	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
3	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	38.89%
Total	16.67%	33.33%	33.33%	16.67%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.39	1.50	+1.89
SD	2.52	0.99	3.27
CV	0.74	0.66	—
Max	9	3	+9
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
1	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	22.22%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
4	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
Total	22.22%	16.67%	22.22%	22.22%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.33	2.22	+0.11
SD	2.03	1.99	3.18
CV	0.87	0.89	—
Max	6	7	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	27.78%
1	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	33.33%	16.67%	16.67%	16.67%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.61	1.83	-0.22
SD	1.33	1.38	2.26
CV	0.83	0.75	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%	16.67%
1	—	—	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	22.22%
2	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	11.11%	16.67%	27.78%	27.78%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.28	2.33	-0.06
SD	1.81	1.46	2.92
CV	0.79	0.62	—
Max	6	5	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
2	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	11.11%	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	33.33%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	27.78%	22.22%	27.78%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.28	1.61	+0.67
SD	1.23	1.46	2.06
CV	0.54	0.91	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	33.33%
2	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
3	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
4	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	44.44%	22.22%	22.22%	—	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.11	2.17	-0.06
SD	1.41	1.47	2.13
CV	0.67	0.68	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	1	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
1	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	50.00%
2	5.56%	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	27.78%	11.11%	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.61	2.00	-0.39
SD	0.98	1.71	2.12
CV	0.61	0.86	—
Max	4	5	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%
2	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%	22.22%
3	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
Total	11.11%	22.22%	22.22%	16.67%	11.11%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.83	2.50	+0.33
SD	2.20	1.76	3.24
CV	0.78	0.70	—
Max	7	6	+7
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
1	11.11%	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	11.11%	50.00%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	22.22%	27.78%	11.11%	—	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	2.11	-0.56
SD	0.92	2.05	2.36
CV	0.59	0.97	—
Max	4	7	+3
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Athletic Bilbao	24	19.83	+4.17
2	Madrid CF	22	19.67	+2.33
3	Real Betis	19	17.01	+1.99
4	Racing Santander	19	17.80	+1.20
5	Donostia FC	18	17.67	+0.33

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Arenas de Getxo	10	17.34	-7.34
2	Barcelona	16	18.01	-2.01
3	Espanol	17	17.49	-0.49
4	Valencia	17	17.41	-0.41
5	Real Oviedo	18	17.77	+0.23

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Athletic Bilbao	5	Jan 7 – Feb 4	1 in 89
2	Real Betis	3	Feb 4 – Feb 18	1 in 36
3	Racing Santander	3	Dec 24 – Jan 7	1 in 25
4	Madrid CF	4	Nov 12 – Dec 3	1 in 20
5	Valencia	2	Jan 28 – Feb 11	65%

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Arenas de Getxo	4	Feb 4 – Feb 25	1 in 386
2	Madrid CF	3	Dec 10 – Dec 24	1 in 93
3	Barcelona	3	Nov 18 – Dec 3	1 in 19
4	Donostia FC	3	Jan 21 – Feb 4	1 in 18
5	Espanol	3	Jan 21 – Feb 4	1 in 11

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Donostia FC	8	Nov 26 – Jan 14	1 in 183
2	Madrid CF	5	Nov 5 – Dec 3	1 in 22
3	Athletic Bilbao	5	Jan 7 – Feb 4	1 in 15
4	Real Betis	3	Dec 10 – Dec 24	1 in 8
5	Espanol	4	Feb 11 – Mar 4	1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Arenas de Getxo	7	Dec 10 – Jan 21	1 in 190
2	Donostia FC	5	Jan 7 – Feb 4	1 in 33
3	Real Betis	4	Dec 24 – Jan 14	1 in 21
4	Madrid CF	3	Dec 10 – Dec 24	1 in 8
5	Valencia	4	Feb 18 – Mar 4	1 in 7

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Athletic Bilbao	31.99%	19.38%	13.23%	10.19%	7.84%	5.68%	4.48%	3.52%	2.44%	1.25%
Madrid CF	25.98%	20.09%	13.88%	10.82%	8.35%	6.84%	5.53%	3.73%	3.06%	1.72%
Racing Santander	6.24%	8.87%	10.07%	11.15%	11.78%	10.64%	10.83%	10.63%	10.65%	9.14%
Real Betis	3.11%	5.00%	6.52%	8.15%	8.81%	10.62%	11.63%	13.28%	14.94%	17.94%
Real Oviedo	6.89%	10.13%	11.66%	11.13%	11.27%	11.16%	10.60%	10.20%	8.82%	8.14%
Donostia FC	5.17%	7.59%	9.23%	9.97%	10.67%	11.95%	11.39%	11.61%	11.70%	10.72%
Espanol	5.43%	7.63%	9.51%	9.71%	10.85%	11.19%	11.57%	11.56%	10.87%	11.68%
Valencia	3.86%	6.02%	7.55%	8.69%	10.30%	10.80%	11.49%	13.20%	13.79%	14.30%
Barcelona	8.23%	10.41%	11.61%	12.07%	10.58%	10.72%	10.69%	9.24%	8.74%	7.71%
Arenas de Getxo	3.10%	4.88%	6.74%	8.12%	9.55%	10.40%	11.79%	13.03%	14.99%	17.40%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+67.78%

Strong Edge

77.78%12.22%10.00%

Elo Value

Home Edge

154 Elo

0.007 goals per Elo point

0286.63400

Scoring Tilt

Expected +1.86 goals

+1.82 goals

Strong Home

-2+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

5.1

Open

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

32%

Athletic Bilbao, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.11/gm

Photo Finish

00.080.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 1.89 * Some Luck: 1.89 to 2.83 * Lucky: 2.83 to 3.77 * Wild Swing: 3.77 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.13 * Close: 2.13 to 3.19 * Off: 3.19 to 4.25 * Way Off: 4.25 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

2.94 points

Lucky

02.366

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.40

Pinpoint

02.666

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

96.85%

Athletic Bilbao

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

0.17%

Arenas de Getxo

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.10

Balanced

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

0.87

Coin-Flip Parity

01.003

Interquartile Edge

60%

Slight Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

90%

Strong Edge

50%90%100%

Close Games

Expected

47%

Frequent

0%38%100%

Blowouts

Expected

33%

Very Frequent

0%39%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.37

Highly Predictable

00.322

Matchup Imbalance

0.86

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.59

Chaotic

01.002

Repeatability

0.19

Weak Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

10%

Chalky

0%6%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

10%

Solid Favorites

0%6%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.07 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.07 to 0.1 * Above Noise: 0.1 to 0.13 * Well Above Noise: 0.13 and up.

Probability calibration

0.65

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.71

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.056

Well Within Noise

00.0650.15

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level
Arenas de Getxo	100%
Athletic Bilbao	100%
Barcelona	100%
Donostia FC	100%
Espanol	100%
Madrid CF	100%
Racing Santander	100%
Real Betis	100%
Real Oviedo	100%
Valencia	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1933-11-05	Madrid CF	D 3-3	1698	1819	76.9%	12.9%	10.2%	-4.3	1
1933-11-05	@ Arenas de Getxo	D 3-3	1819	1698	10.2%	12.9%	76.9%	+4.3	1
1933-11-05	Donostia FC	W 4-0	1703	1693	82.2%	12.7%	5.1%	+8.8	2
1933-11-05	@ Espanol	L 0-4	1693	1703	5.1%	12.7%	82.2%	-8.8	0
1933-11-05	Racing Santander	W 2-1	1639	1697	79.8%	12.8%	7.3%	+3.3	2
1933-11-05	@ Real Betis	L 1-2	1697	1639	7.3%	12.8%	79.8%	-3.3	0
1933-11-05	Barcelona	W 7-3	1687	1756	79.4%	12.8%	7.8%	+8.6	2
1933-11-05	@ Real Oviedo	L 3-7	1756	1687	7.8%	12.8%	79.4%	-8.6	0
1933-11-05	Athletic Bilbao	D 2-2	1656	1826	73.9%	12.9%	13.2%	-4.7	1
1933-11-05	@ Valencia	D 2-2	1826	1656	13.2%	12.9%	73.9%	+4.7	1
1933-11-12	Real Betis	W 5-0	1831	1642	85.7%	12.4%	1.9%	+4.0	3
1933-11-12	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 0-5	1642	1831	1.9%	12.4%	85.7%	-4.0	2
1933-11-12	Espanol	W 5-0	1747	1712	82.9%	12.7%	4.4%	+9.4	2
1933-11-12	@ Barcelona	L 0-5	1712	1747	4.4%	12.7%	82.9%	-9.4	2
1933-11-12	Real Oviedo	W 4-3	1694	1696	81.8%	12.8%	5.4%	+2.3	2
1933-11-12	@ Racing Santander	L 3-4	1696	1694	5.4%	12.8%	81.8%	-2.3	2
1933-11-12	Valencia	W 3-2	1823	1651	85.5%	12.4%	2.1%	+0.9	3
1933-11-12	@ Madrid CF	L 2-3	1651	1823	2.1%	12.4%	85.5%	-0.9	1
1933-11-12	Arenas de Getxo	W 4-1	1684	1694	81.6%	12.8%	5.6%	+6.3	2
1933-11-12	@ Donostia FC	L 1-4	1694	1684	5.6%	12.8%	81.6%	-6.3	1
1933-11-18	Barcelona	W 3-1	1687	1757	79.4%	12.8%	7.8%	+6.1	3
1933-11-18	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 1-3	1757	1687	7.8%	12.8%	79.4%	-6.1	2
1933-11-18	Racing Santander	W 5-0	1703	1696	82.1%	12.7%	5.2%	+11.0	4
1933-11-18	@ Espanol	L 0-5	1696	1703	5.2%	12.7%	82.1%	-11.0	2
1933-11-18	Donostia FC	W 2-0	1824	1691	84.9%	12.5%	2.6%	+2.4	5
1933-11-18	@ Madrid CF	L 0-2	1691	1824	2.6%	12.5%	84.9%	-2.4	2
1933-11-18	Athletic Bilbao	D 2-2	1693	1835	75.7%	12.9%	11.4%	-5.0	3
1933-11-18	@ Real Oviedo	D 2-2	1835	1693	11.4%	12.9%	75.7%	+5.0	4
1933-11-18	Real Betis	W 2-1	1650	1638	82.2%	12.7%	5.0%	+2.3	3
1933-11-18	@ Valencia	L 1-2	1638	1650	5.0%	12.7%	82.2%	-2.3	2
1933-11-26	Espanol	W 5-0	1840	1714	84.8%	12.5%	2.7%	+5.7	6
1933-11-26	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 0-5	1714	1840	2.7%	12.5%	84.8%	-5.7	4
1933-11-26	Madrid CF	L 1-2	1750	1827	79.1%	12.8%	8.1%	-31.0	2
1933-11-26	@ Barcelona	W 2-1	1827	1750	8.1%	12.8%	79.1%	+31.0	7
1933-11-26	Arenas de Getxo	W 4-1	1685	1693	81.6%	12.8%	5.6%	+6.2	4
1933-11-26	@ Racing Santander	L 1-4	1693	1685	5.6%	12.8%	81.6%	-6.2	3
1933-11-26	Real Oviedo	W 4-2	1636	1688	80.1%	12.8%	7.1%	+5.0	4
1933-11-26	@ Real Betis	L 2-4	1688	1636	7.1%	12.8%	80.1%	-5.0	3
1933-11-26	Valencia	W 3-1	1688	1652	82.9%	12.7%	4.4%	+3.5	4
1933-11-26	@ Donostia FC	L 1-3	1652	1688	4.4%	12.7%	82.9%	-3.5	3
1933-12-03	Athletic Bilbao	W 2-0	1687	1845	74.7%	12.9%	12.4%	+11.0	5
1933-12-03	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 0-2	1845	1687	12.4%	12.9%	74.7%	-11.0	6
1933-12-03	Real Betis	W 3-1	1708	1641	83.7%	12.6%	3.7%	+2.9	6
1933-12-03	@ Espanol	L 1-3	1641	1708	3.7%	12.6%	83.7%	-2.9	4
1933-12-03	Racing Santander	W 1-0	1858	1691	85.4%	12.4%	2.1%	+1.0	9
1933-12-03	@ Madrid CF	L 0-1	1691	1858	2.1%	12.4%	85.4%	-1.0	4
1933-12-03	Barcelona	W 2-0	1692	1719	81.0%	12.8%	6.2%	+5.6	6
1933-12-03	@ Donostia FC	L 0-2	1719	1692	6.2%	12.8%	81.0%	-5.6	2
1933-12-03	Real Oviedo	W 1-0	1649	1683	80.8%	12.8%	6.5%	+3.1	5
1933-12-03	@ Valencia	L 0-1	1683	1649	6.5%	12.8%	80.8%	-3.1	3
1933-12-10	Madrid CF	W 5-1	1834	1859	81.1%	12.8%	6.1%	+8.8	8
1933-12-10	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-5	1859	1834	6.1%	12.8%	81.1%	-8.8	9
1933-12-10	Valencia	W 5-2	1714	1652	83.5%	12.6%	3.8%	+3.7	4
1933-12-10	@ Barcelona	L 2-5	1652	1714	3.8%	12.6%	83.5%	-3.7	5
1933-12-10	Donostia FC	D 1-1	1690	1697	81.7%	12.8%	5.6%	-8.1	5
1933-12-10	@ Racing Santander	D 1-1	1697	1690	5.6%	12.8%	81.7%	+8.1	7
1933-12-10	Arenas de Getxo	W 2-0	1638	1698	79.8%	12.8%	7.4%	+6.7	6
1933-12-10	@ Real Betis	L 0-2	1698	1638	7.4%	12.8%	79.8%	-6.7	5
1933-12-10	Espanol	W 3-1	1680	1711	80.9%	12.8%	6.3%	+5.0	5
1933-12-10	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-3	1711	1680	6.3%	12.8%	80.9%	-5.0	6
1933-12-17	Real Oviedo	D 1-1	1691	1685	82.1%	12.7%	5.2%	-8.2	6
1933-12-17	@ Arenas de Getxo	D 1-1	1685	1691	5.2%	12.7%	82.1%	+8.2	6
1933-12-17	Racing Santander	W 6-3	1718	1682	82.9%	12.7%	4.4%	+4.0	6
1933-12-17	@ Barcelona	L 3-6	1682	1718	4.4%	12.7%	82.9%	-4.0	5
1933-12-17	Real Betis	L 0-1	1850	1644	85.9%	12.3%	1.7%	-35.9	9
1933-12-17	@ Madrid CF	W 1-0	1644	1850	1.7%	12.3%	85.9%	+35.9	8
1933-12-17	Athletic Bilbao	W 3-0	1706	1843	75.9%	12.9%	11.2%	+14.4	9
1933-12-17	@ Donostia FC	L 0-3	1843	1706	11.2%	12.9%	75.9%	-14.4	8
1933-12-17	Espanol	W 1-0	1648	1706	79.9%	12.8%	7.3%	+3.5	7
1933-12-17	@ Valencia	L 0-1	1706	1648	7.3%	12.8%	79.9%	-3.5	6
1933-12-24	Barcelona	W 6-1	1829	1721	84.5%	12.6%	3.0%	+5.2	10
1933-12-24	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-6	1721	1829	3.0%	12.6%	84.5%	-5.3	6
1933-12-24	Arenas de Getxo	W 6-2	1702	1683	82.5%	12.7%	4.8%	+5.9	8
1933-12-24	@ Espanol	L 2-6	1683	1702	4.8%	12.7%	82.5%	-5.9	6
1933-12-24	Donostia FC	D 1-1	1680	1720	80.6%	12.8%	6.6%	-7.9	9
1933-12-24	@ Real Betis	D 1-1	1720	1680	6.6%	12.8%	80.6%	+7.8	10
1933-12-24	Madrid CF	W 3-2	1693	1814	76.9%	12.9%	10.2%	+4.3	8
1933-12-24	@ Real Oviedo	L 2-3	1814	1693	10.2%	12.9%	76.9%	-4.3	9
1933-12-24	Racing Santander	L 1-2	1652	1678	81.0%	12.8%	6.2%	-31.8	7
1933-12-24	@ Valencia	W 2-1	1678	1652	6.2%	12.8%	81.0%	+31.9	7
1933-12-31	Valencia	L 1-2	1677	1620	83.4%	12.7%	3.9%	-32.9	6
1933-12-31	@ Arenas de Getxo	W 2-1	1620	1677	3.9%	12.7%	83.4%	+32.9	9
1933-12-31	Real Betis	W 5-1	1716	1673	83.1%	12.7%	4.2%	+6.1	8
1933-12-31	@ Barcelona	L 1-5	1673	1716	4.2%	12.7%	83.1%	-6.1	9
1933-12-31	Athletic Bilbao	W 3-2	1710	1834	76.7%	12.9%	10.4%	+4.4	9
1933-12-31	@ Racing Santander	L 2-3	1834	1710	10.4%	12.9%	76.7%	-4.4	10
1933-12-31	Espanol	W 3-2	1810	1708	84.4%	12.6%	3.1%	+1.3	11
1933-12-31	@ Madrid CF	L 2-3	1708	1810	3.1%	12.6%	84.4%	-1.3	8
1933-12-31	Real Oviedo	W 3-1	1728	1698	82.8%	12.7%	4.5%	+3.6	12
1933-12-31	@ Donostia FC	L 1-3	1698	1728	4.5%	12.7%	82.8%	-3.6	8
1934-01-07	Valencia	W 6-2	1830	1653	85.6%	12.4%	2.0%	+2.5	12
1934-01-07	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 2-6	1653	1830	2.0%	12.4%	85.6%	-2.5	9
1934-01-07	Real Oviedo	W 2-0	1722	1694	82.7%	12.7%	4.6%	+4.2	10
1934-01-07	@ Barcelona	L 0-2	1694	1722	4.6%	12.7%	82.7%	-4.2	8
1934-01-07	Real Betis	W 4-1	1715	1666	83.2%	12.7%	4.1%	+4.6	11
1934-01-07	@ Racing Santander	L 1-4	1666	1715	4.1%	12.7%	83.2%	-4.6	9
1934-01-07	Arenas de Getxo	W 2-1	1811	1644	85.4%	12.4%	2.1%	+1.0	13
1934-01-07	@ Madrid CF	L 1-2	1644	1811	2.1%	12.4%	85.4%	-1.0	6
1934-01-07	Espanol	D 3-3	1731	1707	82.6%	12.7%	4.7%	-5.2	13
1934-01-07	@ Donostia FC	D 3-3	1707	1731	4.7%	12.7%	82.6%	+5.2	9
1934-01-13	Barcelona	W 3-2	1712	1726	81.4%	12.8%	5.8%	+2.5	11
1934-01-13	@ Espanol	L 2-3	1726	1712	5.8%	12.8%	81.4%	-2.5	10
1934-01-14	Donostia FC	D 0-0	1644	1726	78.8%	12.8%	8.4%	-8.3	7
1934-01-14	@ Arenas de Getxo	D 0-0	1726	1644	8.4%	12.8%	78.8%	+8.3	14
1934-01-14	Athletic Bilbao	L 1-3	1662	1832	73.9%	12.9%	13.2%	-49.9	9
1934-01-14	@ Real Betis	W 3-1	1832	1662	13.2%	12.9%	73.9%	+50.0	14
1934-01-14	Racing Santander	W 3-1	1690	1719	80.9%	12.8%	6.3%	+4.9	10
1934-01-14	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-3	1719	1690	6.3%	12.8%	80.9%	-4.9	11
1934-01-14	Madrid CF	W 2-1	1650	1812	74.5%	12.9%	12.6%	+5.6	11
1934-01-14	@ Valencia	L 1-2	1812	1650	12.6%	12.9%	74.5%	-5.6	13
1934-01-21	Real Oviedo	W 6-2	1882	1695	85.7%	12.4%	1.9%	+2.3	16
1934-01-21	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 2-6	1695	1882	1.9%	12.4%	85.7%	-2.3	10
1934-01-21	Arenas de Getxo	W 4-0	1724	1635	84.1%	12.6%	3.3%	+5.7	12
1934-01-21	@ Barcelona	L 0-4	1635	1724	3.3%	12.6%	84.1%	-5.7	7
1934-01-21	Espanol	W 3-1	1714	1715	81.9%	12.7%	5.4%	+4.2	13
1934-01-21	@ Racing Santander	L 1-3	1715	1714	5.4%	12.7%	81.9%	-4.2	11
1934-01-21	Valencia	W 2-1	1612	1656	80.4%	12.8%	6.8%	+3.1	11
1934-01-21	@ Real Betis	L 1-2	1656	1612	6.8%	12.8%	80.4%	-3.1	11
1934-01-21	Madrid CF	L 0-3	1735	1806	79.3%	12.8%	7.9%	-90.3	14
1934-01-21	@ Donostia FC	W 3-0	1806	1735	7.9%	12.8%	79.3%	+90.3	15
1934-01-28	Racing Santander	W 2-1	1629	1718	78.5%	12.9%	8.6%	+3.9	9
1934-01-28	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 1-2	1718	1629	8.6%	12.9%	78.5%	-3.9	13
1934-01-28	Athletic Bilbao	L 1-4	1710	1884	73.7%	12.9%	13.4%	-70.4	11
1934-01-28	@ Espanol	W 4-1	1884	1710	13.4%	12.9%	73.7%	+70.4	18
1934-01-28	Barcelona	W 4-0	1897	1730	85.4%	12.4%	2.1%	+3.7	17
1934-01-28	@ Madrid CF	L 0-4	1730	1897	2.1%	12.4%	85.4%	-3.7	12
1934-01-28	Real Betis	W 4-3	1692	1615	83.9%	12.6%	3.5%	+1.5	12
1934-01-28	@ Real Oviedo	L 3-4	1615	1692	3.5%	12.6%	83.9%	-1.5	11
1934-01-28	Donostia FC	W 4-1	1653	1644	82.2%	12.7%	5.1%	+5.7	13
1934-01-28	@ Valencia	L 1-4	1644	1653	5.1%	12.7%	82.2%	-5.7	14
1934-02-04	Arenas de Getxo	W 9-0	1955	1633	87.1%	12.0%	0.9%	+3.3	20
1934-02-04	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 0-9	1633	1955	0.9%	12.0%	87.1%	-3.3	9
1934-02-04	Donostia FC	W 4-0	1726	1639	84.1%	12.6%	3.3%	+5.8	14
1934-02-04	@ Barcelona	L 0-4	1639	1726	3.3%	12.6%	84.1%	-5.8	14
1934-02-04	Madrid CF	W 4-3	1715	1900	72.8%	12.9%	14.2%	+5.8	15
1934-02-04	@ Racing Santander	L 3-4	1900	1715	14.2%	12.9%	72.8%	-5.8	17
1934-02-04	Espanol	W 3-1	1613	1640	81.0%	12.8%	6.2%	+4.8	13
1934-02-04	@ Real Betis	L 1-3	1640	1613	6.2%	12.8%	81.0%	-4.9	11
1934-02-11	Real Betis	L 0-1	1630	1618	82.2%	12.7%	5.0%	-34.3	9
1934-02-11	@ Arenas de Getxo	W 1-0	1618	1630	5.0%	12.7%	82.2%	+34.3	15
1934-02-11	Real Oviedo	W 5-2	1635	1694	79.8%	12.8%	7.4%	+7.0	13
1934-02-11	@ Espanol	L 2-5	1694	1635	7.4%	12.8%	79.8%	-7.1	12
1934-02-11	Athletic Bilbao	W 3-0	1895	1958	79.6%	12.8%	7.5%	+9.9	19
1934-02-11	@ Madrid CF	L 0-3	1958	1895	7.5%	12.8%	79.6%	-9.9	20
1934-02-11	Racing Santander	W 2-1	1633	1720	78.6%	12.8%	8.6%	+3.9	16
1934-02-11	@ Donostia FC	L 1-2	1720	1633	8.6%	12.8%	78.6%	-3.8	15
1934-02-11	Barcelona	W 2-0	1659	1732	79.2%	12.8%	8.0%	+7.2	15
1934-02-11	@ Valencia	L 0-2	1732	1659	8.0%	12.8%	79.2%	-7.2	14
1934-02-18	Donostia FC	W 2-1	1948	1637	87.0%	12.1%	0.9%	+0.4	22
1934-02-18	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-2	1637	1948	0.9%	12.1%	87.0%	-0.4	16
1934-02-18	Valencia	D 2-2	1642	1666	81.1%	12.8%	6.1%	-5.9	14
1934-02-18	@ Espanol	D 2-2	1666	1642	6.1%	12.8%	81.1%	+5.9	16
1934-02-18	Barcelona	W 3-1	1716	1725	81.6%	12.8%	5.6%	+4.4	17
1934-02-18	@ Racing Santander	L 1-3	1725	1716	5.6%	12.8%	81.6%	-4.4	14
1934-02-18	Madrid CF	W 2-1	1653	1905	67.4%	13.0%	19.6%	+8.4	17
1934-02-18	@ Real Betis	L 1-2	1905	1653	19.6%	13.0%	67.4%	-8.5	19
1934-02-18	Arenas de Getxo	W 7-0	1687	1596	84.2%	12.6%	3.2%	+9.5	14
1934-02-18	@ Real Oviedo	L 0-7	1596	1687	3.2%	12.6%	84.2%	-9.5	9
1934-02-22	Valencia	W 7-0	1696	1672	82.6%	12.7%	4.7%	+13.7	16
1934-02-22	@ Real Oviedo	L 0-7	1672	1696	4.7%	12.7%	82.6%	-13.7	16
1934-02-25	Espanol	L 1-2	1586	1636	80.2%	12.8%	7.0%	-31.5	9
1934-02-25	@ Arenas de Getxo	W 2-1	1636	1586	7.0%	12.8%	80.2%	+31.5	16
1934-02-25	Athletic Bilbao	W 2-1	1720	1949	69.5%	13.0%	17.5%	+7.6	16
1934-02-25	@ Barcelona	L 1-2	1949	1720	17.5%	13.0%	69.5%	-7.6	22
1934-02-25	Valencia	W 2-1	1721	1658	83.6%	12.6%	3.8%	+1.7	19
1934-02-25	@ Racing Santander	L 1-2	1658	1721	3.8%	12.6%	83.6%	-1.7	16
1934-02-25	Real Oviedo	W 5-1	1896	1710	85.7%	12.4%	1.9%	+2.8	21
1934-02-25	@ Madrid CF	L 1-5	1710	1896	1.9%	12.4%	85.7%	-2.8	16
1934-02-25	Real Betis	W 3-2	1636	1661	81.1%	12.8%	6.1%	+2.6	18
1934-02-25	@ Donostia FC	L 2-3	1661	1636	6.1%	12.8%	81.1%	-2.6	17
1934-03-04	Racing Santander	W 3-1	1941	1723	86.1%	12.3%	1.6%	+1.3	24
1934-03-04	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-3	1723	1941	1.6%	12.3%	86.1%	-1.3	19
1934-03-04	Madrid CF	D 2-2	1668	1899	69.3%	13.0%	17.8%	-3.9	17
1934-03-04	@ Espanol	D 2-2	1899	1668	17.8%	13.0%	69.3%	+3.9	22
1934-03-04	Barcelona	W 1-0	1658	1728	79.4%	12.8%	7.8%	+3.7	19
1934-03-04	@ Real Betis	L 0-1	1728	1658	7.8%	12.8%	79.4%	-3.7	16
1934-03-04	Donostia FC	W 3-2	1707	1639	83.7%	12.6%	3.7%	+1.6	18
1934-03-04	@ Real Oviedo	L 2-3	1639	1707	3.7%	12.6%	83.7%	-1.6	18
1934-03-04	Arenas de Getxo	D 0-0	1656	1555	84.4%	12.6%	3.1%	-9.8	17
1934-03-04	@ Valencia	D 0-0	1555	1656	3.1%	12.6%	84.4%	+9.8	10

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1933-12-17	1.72%	Real Betis	1644	1	@ Madrid CF	1850	0
2	1933-12-31	3.92%	Valencia	1620	2	@ Arenas de Getxo	1677	1
3	1934-02-11	5.03%	Real Betis	1618	1	@ Arenas de Getxo	1630	0
4	1933-12-24	6.19%	Racing Santander	1678	2	@ Valencia	1652	1
5	1934-02-25	7.03%	Espanol	1636	2	@ Arenas de Getxo	1586	1
6	1934-01-21	7.90%	Madrid CF	1806	3	@ Donostia FC	1735	0
7	1933-11-26	8.08%	Madrid CF	1827	2	@ Barcelona	1750	1
8	1934-01-14	13.17%	Athletic Bilbao	1832	3	@ Real Betis	1662	1
9	1934-01-28	13.42%	Athletic Bilbao	1884	4	@ Espanol	1710	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1934-01-21	90.33	Madrid CF	3	1806	7.90%	@ Donostia FC	0	1735	79.26%	12.84%
2	1934-01-28	70.38	Athletic Bilbao	4	1884	13.42%	@ Espanol	1	1710	73.65%	12.93%
3	1934-01-14	49.95	Athletic Bilbao	3	1832	13.17%	@ Real Betis	1	1662	73.91%	12.92%
4	1933-12-17	35.93	Real Betis	1	1644	1.72%	@ Madrid CF	0	1850	85.93%	12.35%
5	1934-02-11	34.33	Real Betis	1	1618	5.03%	@ Arenas de Getxo	0	1630	82.24%	12.73%
6	1933-12-31	32.87	Valencia	2	1620	3.92%	@ Arenas de Getxo	1	1677	83.43%	12.65%
7	1933-12-24	31.85	Racing Santander	2	1678	6.19%	@ Valencia	1	1652	81.03%	12.78%
8	1934-02-25	31.48	Espanol	2	1636	7.03%	@ Arenas de Getxo	1	1586	80.16%	12.81%
9	1933-11-26	31.02	Madrid CF	2	1827	8.08%	@ Barcelona	1	1750	79.08%	12.84%
10	1933-12-17	14.41	@ Donostia FC	3	1706	75.95%	Athletic Bilbao	0	1843	11.15%	12.90%
11	1934-02-22	13.71	@ Real Oviedo	7	1696	82.61%	Valencia	0	1672	4.69%	12.71%
12	1933-11-18	11.01	@ Espanol	5	1703	82.08%	Racing Santander	0	1696	5.18%	12.73%
13	1933-12-03	10.97	@ Arenas de Getxo	2	1687	74.70%	Athletic Bilbao	0	1845	12.39%	12.92%
14	1934-02-11	9.89	@ Madrid CF	3	1895	79.62%	Athletic Bilbao	0	1958	7.55%	12.83%
15	1934-03-04	9.76	Arenas de Getxo	0	1555	3.07%	@ Valencia	0	1656	84.36%	12.57%
16	1934-02-18	9.54	@ Real Oviedo	7	1687	84.16%	Arenas de Getxo	0	1596	3.25%	12.59%
17	1933-11-12	9.43	@ Barcelona	5	1747	82.88%	Espanol	0	1712	4.43%	12.69%
18	1933-11-05	8.76	@ Espanol	4	1703	82.19%	Donostia FC	0	1693	5.08%	12.73%
19	1933-12-10	8.76	@ Athletic Bilbao	5	1834	81.10%	Madrid CF	1	1859	6.12%	12.78%
20	1933-11-05	8.57	@ Real Oviedo	7	1687	79.40%	Barcelona	3	1756	7.77%	12.83%
21	1934-02-18	8.45	@ Real Betis	2	1653	67.44%	Madrid CF	1	1905	19.60%	12.96%
22	1934-01-14	8.31	@ Arenas de Getxo	0	1644	78.79%	Donostia FC	0	1726	8.37%	12.85%
23	1933-12-17	8.20	@ Arenas de Getxo	1	1691	82.08%	Real Oviedo	1	1685	5.18%	12.73%
24	1933-12-10	8.10	@ Racing Santander	1	1690	81.67%	Donostia FC	1	1697	5.57%	12.75%
25	1933-12-24	7.85	@ Real Betis	1	1680	80.56%	Donostia FC	1	1720	6.64%	12.80%