Home / Leagues / Spain / La Liga / 1932-33
‹ ›

1932-33 La Liga Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Real Madrid

1st Title

Last Title: 1931-32

Relegated

Alaves

12 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Madrid CF

5.05 points above expected

28 points · 22.95 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Racing Santander

3.98 points below expected

14 points · 17.98 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Madrid CF 18 13 2 3 28 49 17 +32 22.95 +5.05
2 Athletic Bilbao 18 13 0 5 26 63 30 +33 22.72 +3.28
3 Espanol 18 10 2 6 22 33 30 +3 18.94 +3.06
4 Barcelona 18 7 5 6 19 42 34 +8 21.18 -2.18
5 Real Betis 18 6 5 7 17 31 45 -14 13.89 +3.11
6 Donostia FC 18 6 3 9 15 41 47 -6 16.23 -1.23
7 Arenas de Getxo 18 5 4 9 14 39 44 -5 15.94 -1.94
8 Racing Santander 18 6 2 10 14 47 58 -11 17.98 -3.98
9 Valencia 18 4 5 9 13 34 53 -19 15.44 -2.44
10 Alaves Relegated 18 5 2 11 12 21 42 -21 14.73 -2.73

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Athletic Bilbao 1872 26 22.72 +3.28 88.6% 12 17 21 23 25 28 34
Madrid CF 1859 28 22.95 +5.05 96.4% 10 18 21 23 25 28 34
Barcelona 1750 19 21.18 -2.18 29.5% 9 16 19 21 23 26 32
Espanol 1665 22 18.94 +3.06 87.0% 6 14 17 19 21 24 32
Racing Santander 1649 14 17.98 -3.98 14.1% 6 13 16 18 20 23 29
Arenas de Getxo 1648 14 15.94 -1.94 32.6% 5 11 14 16 18 21 28
Donostia FC 1642 15 16.23 -1.23 41.1% 4 11 14 16 18 22 29
Valencia 1580 13 15.44 -2.44 27.7% 5 10 13 15 18 21 29
Real Betis 1563 17 13.89 +3.11 87.1% 3 9 12 14 16 19 26
Alaves 1548 12 14.73 -2.73 24.8% 3 9 13 15 17 20 26

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ALA ADG AB BAR DON ESP MC RS RB VAL
Alaves —
0-1-1
2.54
0-0-2
1.76
1-0-1
1.65
1-0-1
2.58
1-0-1
2.16
0-0-2
1.98
1-0-1
2.26
1-0-1
2.83
0-1-1
2.77
Arenas de Getxo
1-1-0
3.11
 —
1-0-1
1.60
1-0-1
1.93
1-0-1
2.68
0-0-2
2.57
0-0-2
1.96
1-0-1
2.54
0-2-0
3.12
0-1-1
2.91
Athletic Bilbao
2-0-0
3.91
1-0-1
4.06
 —
1-0-1
3.16
1-0-1
3.83
1-0-1
3.36
1-0-1
2.81
2-0-0
3.47
2-0-0
4.06
2-0-0
3.90
Barcelona
1-0-1
4.01
1-0-1
3.73
1-0-1
2.49
 —
1-1-0
3.52
0-1-1
3.17
0-1-1
2.58
1-1-0
3.31
1-0-1
3.88
1-1-0
3.59
Donostia FC
1-0-1
3.07
1-0-1
2.97
1-0-1
1.83
0-1-1
2.14
 —
1-0-1
2.35
0-0-2
1.70
1-0-1
2.58
0-1-1
3.15
1-1-0
2.94
Espanol
1-0-1
3.50
2-0-0
3.09
1-0-1
2.30
1-1-0
2.48
1-0-1
3.31
 —
1-0-1
2.26
1-0-1
2.97
1-0-1
3.57
1-1-0
3.32
Madrid CF
2-0-0
3.69
2-0-0
3.71
1-0-1
2.85
1-1-0
3.08
2-0-0
3.95
1-0-1
3.39
 —
1-0-1
3.75
1-1-0
4.38
2-0-0
4.07
Racing Santander
1-0-1
3.39
1-0-1
3.11
0-0-2
2.19
0-1-1
2.34
1-0-1
3.07
1-0-1
2.68
1-0-1
1.90
 —
0-1-1
3.48
1-0-1
3.25
Real Betis
1-0-1
2.82
0-2-0
2.54
0-0-2
1.60
1-0-1
1.78
1-1-0
2.50
1-0-1
2.08
0-1-1
1.28
1-1-0
2.18
 —
1-0-1
2.52
Valencia
1-1-0
2.88
1-1-0
2.75
0-0-2
1.76
0-1-1
2.07
0-1-1
2.71
0-1-1
2.33
0-0-2
1.59
1-0-1
2.40
1-0-1
3.13
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.41 +3.1
Allowed 0.78 -4.0
Differential 0.89 +2.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.11%3.33%5.00%1.11%1.11%2.22%13.89%
13.33%6.67%7.78%3.33%2.22%3.89%27.22%
25.00%7.78%6.67%3.33%2.78%5.00%30.56%
31.11%3.33%3.33%1.11%——8.89%
41.11%2.22%2.78%—1.11%—7.22%
5+2.22%3.89%5.00%——1.11%12.22%
Total13.89%27.22%30.56%8.89%7.22%12.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 2.22 +0.00
SD 1.96 1.96 2.97
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 9 9 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%38.89%
111.11%11.11%—16.67%——38.89%
25.56%5.56%———5.56%16.67%
3———————
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total16.67%22.22%22.22%22.22%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 2.33 -1.17
SD 1.86 2.17 3.05
CV 1.59 0.93 —
Max 8 9 +6
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%———5.56%
1—11.11%11.11%5.56%—5.56%33.33%
2—5.56%5.56%11.11%—11.11%33.33%
35.56%——5.56%——11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total11.11%22.22%27.78%22.22%—16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 2.44 -0.28
SD 1.54 1.98 2.85
CV 0.71 0.81 —
Max 6 8 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%———11.11%
111.11%—5.56%5.56%——22.22%
25.56%———5.56%—11.11%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+—16.67%11.11%——5.56%33.33%
Total22.22%22.22%38.89%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.50 1.67 +1.83
SD 2.90 1.37 2.92
CV 0.83 0.82 —
Max 9 5 +8
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—11.11%22.22%——5.56%38.89%
25.56%—11.11%5.56%——22.22%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
45.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total11.11%22.22%50.00%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.33 1.89 +0.44
SD 1.37 1.23 1.95
CV 0.59 0.65 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 1 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—5.56%—5.56%16.67%
1——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
2—11.11%16.67%5.56%11.11%5.56%50.00%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total5.56%33.33%22.22%11.11%11.11%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 2.61 -0.33
SD 2.02 2.03 3.51
CV 0.89 0.78 —
Max 8 7 +8
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
1—11.11%5.56%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
211.11%22.22%———5.56%38.89%
35.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total16.67%44.44%22.22%5.56%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.67 +0.17
SD 1.20 1.61 2.15
CV 0.65 0.97 —
Max 5 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
111.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
216.67%11.11%——5.56%—33.33%
3———————
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+5.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
Total38.89%38.89%16.67%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.72 0.94 +1.78
SD 2.27 1.06 2.26
CV 0.83 1.12 —
Max 8 4 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%——5.56%5.56%16.67%
1——11.11%—5.56%—16.67%
25.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—11.11%33.33%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
5+5.56%5.56%———5.56%16.67%
Total11.11%22.22%22.22%5.56%16.67%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.61 3.22 -0.61
SD 2.43 2.82 4.09
CV 0.93 0.87 —
Max 9 9 +9
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%———11.11%
1—5.56%11.11%—11.11%11.11%38.89%
2—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
3—5.56%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%22.22%44.44%5.56%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 2.50 -0.78
SD 1.13 2.04 2.49
CV 0.65 0.81 —
Max 4 9 +2
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%——5.56%16.67%
1—11.11%——5.56%5.56%22.22%
2—5.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%11.11%44.44%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+——11.11%———11.11%
Total—22.22%38.89%5.56%11.11%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 2.94 -1.06
SD 1.57 1.98 2.69
CV 0.83 0.67 —
Max 6 8 +4
Min 0 1 -6

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Madrid CF 28 22.95 +5.05
2 Athletic Bilbao 26 22.72 +3.28
3 Real Betis 17 13.89 +3.11
4 Espanol 22 18.94 +3.06
5 Donostia FC 15 16.23 -1.23

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Racing Santander 14 17.98 -3.98
2 Alaves 12 14.73 -2.73
3 Valencia 13 15.44 -2.44
4 Barcelona 19 21.18 -2.18
5 Arenas de Getxo 14 15.94 -1.94

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Espanol 5 Nov 27 – Dec 25 1 in 342
2 Madrid CF 6 Jan 8 – Feb 12 1 in 100
3 Athletic Bilbao 3 Nov 27 – Dec 11 1 in 6
4 Real Betis 2 Dec 4 – Dec 12 1 in 3
5 Arenas de Getxo 2 Dec 25 – Jan 1 1 in 2

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Alaves 6 Dec 4 – Jan 8 1 in 31
2 Arenas de Getxo 4 Nov 27 – Dec 18 1 in 16
3 Real Betis 4 Jan 17 – Feb 5 1 in 15
4 Athletic Bilbao 1 Dec 18 – Dec 18 1 in 14
5 Espanol 3 Feb 12 – Feb 26 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Espanol 9 Nov 27 – Jan 22 1 in 407
2 Madrid CF 14 Dec 4 – Mar 5 1 in 207
3 Real Betis 4 Mar 5 – Mar 28 1 in 27
4 Donostia FC 3 Mar 5 – Mar 19 1 in 17
5 Barcelona 5 Jan 1 – Jan 29 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Real Betis 9 Jan 1 – Feb 26 1 in 21
2 Valencia 7 Dec 4 – Jan 15 1 in 16
3 Arenas de Getxo 5 Jan 8 – Feb 5 1 in 10
4 Alaves 6 Dec 4 – Jan 8 1 in 6
5 Barcelona 4 Mar 5 – Mar 26 1 in 5

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Madrid CF39.14%26.38%15.97%8.95%4.65%2.70%1.26%0.55%0.30%0.10%
Athletic Bilbao35.59%27.23%16.78%10.05%5.10%2.79%1.48%0.68%0.28%0.02%
Espanol4.66%10.28%15.76%19.49%16.72%13.01%8.61%6.18%3.59%1.70%
Barcelona15.25%22.50%23.93%15.30%10.31%6.00%3.49%1.76%1.12%0.34%
Real Betis0.15%0.48%1.50%2.80%5.65%8.41%12.02%16.38%21.93%30.68%
Donostia FC0.96%2.54%5.63%8.87%12.64%15.59%16.09%14.77%13.15%9.76%
Arenas de Getxo0.78%1.96%4.64%8.35%12.42%15.00%16.20%16.15%13.86%10.64%
Racing Santander2.63%6.22%10.37%15.27%16.48%14.51%12.53%10.30%7.09%4.60%
Valencia0.53%1.40%3.26%6.23%8.75%12.39%14.90%16.82%18.25%17.47%
Alaves0.31%1.01%2.16%4.69%7.28%9.60%13.42%16.41%20.43%24.69%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+41.11%
Strong Edge
62.22%16.67%21.11%
Elo Value
Home Edge
122 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
0151.81400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+1.40 goals
Strong Home
-2+1.24+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.3
Top-Heavy
124610
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Photo Finish
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.54 * Some Luck: 2.54 to 3.82 * Lucky: 3.82 to 5.09 * Wild Swing: 5.09 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.34 * Close: 1.34 to 2.02 * Off: 2.02 to 2.69 * Way Off: 2.69 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.69 * A Surprise: 0.69 to 1.11 * Several Surprises: 1.11 to 1.53 * Many Surprises: 1.53 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.08 points
Some Luck
03.188
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Pinpoint
01.684
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
96.41%
Madrid CF
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
14.10%
Racing Santander
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 1
A Surprise
00.71

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.32
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
68%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
87%
Strong Edge
50%90%100%
Close Games
Expected
46%
Frequent
0%38%100%
Blowouts
Expected
32%
Very Frequent
0%40%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.50
Highly Predictable
00.492
Matchup Imbalance
0.56
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.94
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.57
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Chalky
0%18%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
16%
As Expected
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.15
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.88
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.063
Well Within Noise
00.1350.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Athletic Bilbao 99.98% 0.02%
Madrid CF 99.90% 0.10%
Barcelona 99.66% 0.34%
Espanol 98.30% 1.70%
Racing Santander 95.40% 4.60%
Donostia FC 90.24% 9.76%
Arenas de Getxo 89.36% 10.64%
Valencia 82.53% 17.47%
Alaves 75.31% 24.69%
Real Betis 69.32% 30.68%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1932-11-27 Racing Santander W 8-2 1591 1715 55.0% 17.7% 27.4% +25.8 2
1932-11-27 @ Alaves L 2-8 1715 1591 27.4% 17.7% 55.0% -25.8 0
1932-11-27 Real Betis W 9-1 1812 1566 79.7% 16.0% 4.3% +7.1 2
1932-11-27 @ Athletic Bilbao L 1-9 1566 1812 4.3% 16.0% 79.7% -7.0 0
1932-11-27 Madrid CF W 2-1 1640 1760 55.4% 17.7% 26.9% +6.7 2
1932-11-27 @ Espanol L 1-2 1760 1640 26.9% 17.7% 55.4% -6.7 0
1932-11-27 Barcelona D 2-2 1641 1769 54.4% 17.7% 28.0% -1.1 1
1932-11-27 @ Donostia FC D 2-2 1769 1641 28.0% 17.7% 54.4% +1.1 1
1932-11-27 Arenas de Getxo W 3-2 1630 1651 65.4% 17.5% 17.1% +4.2 2
1932-11-27 @ Valencia L 2-3 1651 1630 17.1% 17.5% 65.4% -4.2 0
1932-12-04 Espanol L 0-2 1647 1646 67.2% 17.4% 15.3% -30.2 0
1932-12-04 @ Arenas de Getxo W 2-0 1646 1647 15.3% 17.4% 67.2% +30.2 4
1932-12-04 Alaves W 2-0 1771 1617 76.3% 16.7% 7.0% +3.8 3
1932-12-04 @ Barcelona L 0-2 1617 1771 7.0% 16.7% 76.3% -3.8 2
1932-12-04 Athletic Bilbao L 0-1 1689 1819 54.2% 17.7% 28.1% -12.9 0
1932-12-04 @ Racing Santander W 1-0 1819 1689 28.1% 17.7% 54.2% +12.9 4
1932-12-04 Valencia W 3-2 1559 1635 60.3% 17.6% 22.1% +5.3 2
1932-12-04 @ Real Betis L 2-3 1635 1559 22.1% 17.6% 60.3% -5.3 2
1932-12-04 Donostia FC W 6-2 1753 1640 74.4% 16.9% 8.7% +6.3 2
1932-12-04 @ Madrid CF L 2-6 1640 1753 8.7% 16.9% 74.4% -6.3 1
1932-12-11 Madrid CF L 0-1 1613 1759 52.2% 17.7% 30.1% -12.5 2
1932-12-11 @ Alaves W 1-0 1759 1613 30.1% 17.7% 52.2% +12.5 4
1932-12-11 Arenas de Getxo W 3-1 1832 1617 78.7% 16.2% 5.1% +2.4 6
1932-12-11 @ Athletic Bilbao L 1-3 1617 1832 5.1% 16.2% 78.7% -2.4 0
1932-12-11 Racing Santander W 2-1 1677 1676 67.2% 17.4% 15.4% +4.1 6
1932-12-11 @ Espanol L 1-2 1676 1677 15.4% 17.4% 67.2% -4.1 0
1932-12-11 Barcelona D 2-2 1629 1774 52.3% 17.7% 30.0% -0.9 3
1932-12-11 @ Valencia D 2-2 1774 1629 30.0% 17.7% 52.3% +0.9 4
1932-12-12 Donostia FC W 4-2 1564 1633 61.0% 17.6% 21.4% +8.5 4
1932-12-12 @ Real Betis L 2-4 1633 1564 21.4% 17.6% 61.0% -8.5 1
1932-12-18 Espanol L 0-2 1834 1681 76.3% 16.7% 7.0% -34.5 6
1932-12-18 @ Athletic Bilbao W 2-0 1681 1834 7.0% 16.7% 76.3% +34.5 8
1932-12-18 Arenas de Getxo W 5-2 1775 1615 76.6% 16.6% 6.8% +3.9 6
1932-12-18 @ Barcelona L 2-5 1615 1775 6.8% 16.6% 76.6% -3.9 0
1932-12-18 Valencia W 2-0 1672 1628 70.4% 17.2% 12.4% +6.6 2
1932-12-18 @ Racing Santander L 0-2 1628 1672 12.4% 17.2% 70.4% -6.6 3
1932-12-18 Real Betis W 4-1 1772 1573 78.1% 16.3% 5.5% +3.7 6
1932-12-18 @ Madrid CF L 1-4 1573 1772 5.5% 16.3% 78.1% -3.7 4
1932-12-18 Alaves W 3-1 1625 1601 69.0% 17.3% 13.7% +6.3 3
1932-12-18 @ Donostia FC L 1-3 1601 1625 13.7% 17.3% 69.0% -6.3 2
1932-12-25 Athletic Bilbao L 0-2 1594 1800 44.3% 17.6% 38.0% -20.4 2
1932-12-25 @ Alaves W 2-0 1800 1594 38.0% 17.6% 44.3% +20.4 8
1932-12-25 Racing Santander W 2-1 1611 1679 61.1% 17.6% 21.3% +5.5 2
1932-12-25 @ Arenas de Getxo L 1-2 1679 1611 21.3% 17.6% 61.1% -5.5 2
1932-12-25 Donostia FC W 3-0 1715 1631 72.9% 17.1% 10.1% +7.9 10
1932-12-25 @ Espanol L 0-3 1631 1715 10.1% 17.1% 72.9% -7.9 3
1932-12-25 Barcelona W 2-1 1569 1779 43.7% 17.6% 38.7% +9.1 6
1932-12-25 @ Real Betis L 1-2 1779 1569 38.7% 17.6% 43.7% -9.1 6
1932-12-25 Valencia W 6-0 1775 1622 76.3% 16.7% 7.0% +10.7 8
1932-12-25 @ Madrid CF L 0-6 1622 1775 7.0% 16.7% 76.3% -10.7 3
1933-01-01 Alaves W 3-0 1616 1574 70.3% 17.2% 12.5% +9.7 4
1933-01-01 @ Arenas de Getxo L 0-3 1574 1616 12.5% 17.2% 70.3% -9.7 2
1933-01-01 Madrid CF D 1-1 1770 1786 65.9% 17.5% 16.7% -2.9 7
1933-01-01 @ Barcelona D 1-1 1786 1770 16.7% 17.5% 65.9% +2.8 9
1933-01-01 Real Betis D 2-2 1673 1578 73.5% 17.0% 9.5% -2.8 3
1933-01-01 @ Racing Santander D 2-2 1578 1673 9.5% 17.0% 73.5% +2.8 7
1933-01-01 Athletic Bilbao L 2-4 1623 1820 45.5% 17.6% 36.8% -16.1 3
1933-01-01 @ Donostia FC W 4-2 1820 1623 36.8% 17.6% 45.5% +16.1 10
1933-01-01 Espanol D 1-1 1611 1723 56.3% 17.7% 26.0% -1.7 4
1933-01-01 @ Valencia D 1-1 1723 1611 26.0% 17.7% 56.3% +1.7 11
1933-01-08 Barcelona L 1-3 1836 1767 72.0% 17.1% 10.9% -28.1 10
1933-01-08 @ Athletic Bilbao W 3-1 1767 1836 10.9% 17.1% 72.0% +28.1 9
1933-01-08 Alaves W 3-1 1725 1564 76.6% 16.6% 6.8% +3.2 13
1933-01-08 @ Espanol L 1-3 1564 1725 6.8% 16.6% 76.6% -3.2 2
1933-01-08 Arenas de Getxo D 1-1 1581 1626 63.3% 17.5% 19.1% -2.5 8
1933-01-08 @ Real Betis D 1-1 1626 1581 19.1% 17.5% 63.3% +2.5 5
1933-01-08 Racing Santander W 4-1 1789 1670 74.7% 16.9% 8.4% +5.6 11
1933-01-08 @ Madrid CF L 1-4 1670 1789 8.4% 16.9% 74.7% -5.6 3
1933-01-08 Valencia W 4-1 1607 1609 67.0% 17.4% 15.6% +10.1 5
1933-01-08 @ Donostia FC L 1-4 1609 1607 15.6% 17.4% 67.0% -10.1 4
1933-01-15 Athletic Bilbao L 1-5 1599 1808 43.9% 17.6% 38.5% -31.9 4
1933-01-15 @ Valencia W 5-1 1808 1599 38.5% 17.6% 43.9% +31.9 12
1933-01-17 Real Betis W 2-0 1561 1579 65.8% 17.5% 16.8% +8.8 4
1933-01-17 @ Alaves L 0-2 1579 1561 16.8% 17.5% 65.8% -8.8 8
1933-01-17 Madrid CF L 1-5 1628 1794 49.7% 17.7% 32.7% -35.6 5
1933-01-17 @ Arenas de Getxo W 5-1 1794 1628 32.7% 17.7% 49.7% +35.6 13
1933-01-17 Espanol D 1-1 1795 1728 71.9% 17.1% 11.0% -3.6 10
1933-01-17 @ Barcelona D 1-1 1728 1795 11.0% 17.1% 71.9% +3.6 14
1933-01-17 Donostia FC W 7-1 1665 1617 70.6% 17.2% 12.1% +14.9 5
1933-01-17 @ Racing Santander L 1-7 1617 1665 12.1% 17.2% 70.6% -14.9 5
1933-01-22 Madrid CF L 0-2 1840 1830 68.0% 17.4% 14.7% -30.5 12
1933-01-22 @ Athletic Bilbao W 2-0 1830 1840 14.7% 17.4% 68.0% +30.5 15
1933-01-22 Racing Santander W 4-0 1792 1680 74.4% 16.9% 8.7% +9.0 12
1933-01-22 @ Barcelona L 0-4 1680 1792 8.7% 16.9% 74.4% -9.0 5
1933-01-22 Espanol L 1-2 1570 1732 50.2% 17.7% 32.1% -11.4 8
1933-01-22 @ Real Betis W 2-1 1732 1570 32.1% 17.7% 50.2% +11.4 16
1933-01-22 Arenas de Getxo W 2-1 1602 1593 67.9% 17.4% 14.7% +3.9 7
1933-01-22 @ Donostia FC L 1-2 1593 1602 14.7% 17.4% 67.9% -3.9 5
1933-01-22 Alaves W 5-2 1567 1570 67.0% 17.4% 15.6% +8.7 6
1933-01-22 @ Valencia L 2-5 1570 1567 15.6% 17.4% 67.0% -8.7 4
1933-01-29 Valencia D 2-2 1589 1576 68.2% 17.4% 14.5% -2.3 6
1933-01-29 @ Arenas de Getxo D 2-2 1576 1589 14.5% 17.4% 68.2% +2.3 7
1933-01-29 Donostia FC W 3-2 1801 1606 78.0% 16.4% 5.7% +1.5 14
1933-01-29 @ Barcelona L 2-3 1606 1801 5.7% 16.4% 78.0% -1.5 7
1933-01-29 Alaves W 9-0 1671 1561 74.2% 16.9% 8.8% +19.6 7
1933-01-29 @ Racing Santander L 0-9 1561 1671 8.8% 16.9% 74.2% -19.6 4
1933-01-29 Athletic Bilbao L 1-5 1558 1810 37.9% 17.6% 44.6% -28.2 8
1933-01-29 @ Real Betis W 5-1 1810 1558 44.6% 17.6% 37.9% +28.2 14
1933-01-29 Espanol W 2-0 1861 1743 74.7% 16.9% 8.5% +4.6 17
1933-01-29 @ Madrid CF L 0-2 1743 1861 8.5% 16.9% 74.7% -4.6 16
1933-02-05 Barcelona W 2-1 1542 1802 36.6% 17.5% 45.9% +10.5 6
1933-02-05 @ Alaves L 1-2 1802 1542 45.9% 17.5% 36.6% -10.5 14
1933-02-05 Racing Santander W 9-5 1838 1690 76.1% 16.7% 7.2% +4.4 16
1933-02-05 @ Athletic Bilbao L 5-9 1690 1838 7.2% 16.7% 76.1% -4.4 7
1933-02-05 Arenas de Getxo W 3-2 1738 1587 76.3% 16.7% 7.1% +1.8 18
1933-02-05 @ Espanol L 2-3 1587 1738 7.1% 16.7% 76.3% -1.8 6
1933-02-05 Madrid CF L 1-2 1605 1865 36.6% 17.5% 45.9% -8.7 7
1933-02-05 @ Donostia FC W 2-1 1865 1605 45.9% 17.5% 36.6% +8.7 19
1933-02-05 Real Betis W 2-1 1578 1530 70.7% 17.2% 12.1% +3.2 9
1933-02-05 @ Valencia L 1-2 1530 1578 12.1% 17.2% 70.7% -3.2 8
1933-02-12 Athletic Bilbao W 4-2 1585 1842 37.0% 17.5% 45.4% +16.1 8
1933-02-12 @ Arenas de Getxo L 2-4 1842 1585 45.4% 17.5% 37.0% -16.1 16
1933-02-12 Valencia W 4-2 1792 1582 78.5% 16.2% 5.2% +2.2 16
1933-02-12 @ Barcelona L 2-4 1582 1792 5.2% 16.2% 78.5% -2.2 9
1933-02-12 Espanol W 3-1 1686 1740 62.4% 17.6% 20.0% +8.9 9
1933-02-12 @ Racing Santander L 1-3 1740 1686 20.0% 17.6% 62.4% -8.9 18
1933-02-12 Alaves W 2-0 1874 1552 81.8% 15.3% 2.9% +1.5 21
1933-02-12 @ Madrid CF L 0-2 1552 1874 2.9% 15.3% 81.8% -1.5 6
1933-02-12 Real Betis D 2-2 1596 1527 72.0% 17.1% 10.9% -2.7 8
1933-02-12 @ Donostia FC D 2-2 1527 1596 10.9% 17.1% 72.0% +2.7 9
1933-02-19 Barcelona W 5-1 1601 1794 46.1% 17.7% 36.3% +27.3 10
1933-02-19 @ Arenas de Getxo L 1-5 1794 1601 36.3% 17.7% 46.1% -27.3 16
1933-02-19 Athletic Bilbao L 2-5 1731 1826 58.2% 17.6% 24.1% -27.7 18
1933-02-19 @ Espanol W 5-2 1826 1731 24.1% 17.6% 58.2% +27.7 18
1933-02-19 Madrid CF D 0-0 1530 1875 25.9% 17.2% 56.8% +1.9 10
1933-02-19 @ Real Betis D 0-0 1875 1530 56.8% 17.2% 25.9% -1.9 22
1933-02-19 Racing Santander W 6-2 1580 1695 55.9% 17.7% 26.4% +17.7 11
1933-02-19 @ Valencia L 2-6 1695 1580 26.4% 17.7% 55.9% -17.7 9
1933-02-26 Alaves W 4-0 1854 1550 81.3% 15.5% 3.2% +3.3 20
1933-02-26 @ Athletic Bilbao L 0-4 1550 1854 3.2% 15.5% 81.3% -3.3 6
1933-02-26 Real Betis W 4-1 1767 1532 79.4% 16.1% 4.5% +3.0 18
1933-02-26 @ Barcelona L 1-4 1532 1767 4.5% 16.1% 79.4% -3.0 10
1933-02-26 Arenas de Getxo W 2-1 1677 1628 70.7% 17.2% 12.0% +3.2 11
1933-02-26 @ Racing Santander L 1-2 1628 1677 12.0% 17.2% 70.7% -3.2 10
1933-02-26 Espanol W 6-1 1593 1704 56.5% 17.7% 25.8% +25.0 10
1933-02-26 @ Donostia FC L 1-6 1704 1593 25.8% 17.7% 56.5% -25.0 18
1933-02-26 Madrid CF L 0-1 1597 1874 34.5% 17.5% 48.0% -8.7 11
1933-02-26 @ Valencia W 1-0 1874 1597 48.0% 17.5% 34.5% +8.7 24
1933-02-28 Donostia FC W 1-0 1547 1618 60.8% 17.6% 21.6% +5.9 8
1933-02-28 @ Alaves L 0-1 1618 1547 21.6% 17.6% 60.8% -5.9 10
1933-03-05 Arenas de Getxo D 1-1 1553 1625 60.7% 17.6% 21.7% -2.2 9
1933-03-05 @ Alaves D 1-1 1625 1553 21.7% 17.6% 60.7% +2.2 11
1933-03-05 Donostia FC L 1-2 1857 1612 79.7% 16.0% 4.3% -18.0 20
1933-03-05 @ Athletic Bilbao W 2-1 1612 1857 4.3% 16.0% 79.7% +18.0 12
1933-03-05 Valencia W 5-2 1679 1588 73.2% 17.0% 9.8% +5.6 20
1933-03-05 @ Espanol L 2-5 1588 1679 9.8% 17.0% 73.2% -5.6 11
1933-03-05 Racing Santander W 3-2 1528 1680 51.5% 17.7% 30.8% +7.1 12
1933-03-05 @ Real Betis L 2-3 1680 1528 30.8% 17.7% 51.5% -7.1 11
1933-03-05 Barcelona W 2-1 1882 1770 74.4% 16.9% 8.7% +2.4 26
1933-03-05 @ Madrid CF L 1-2 1770 1882 8.7% 16.9% 74.4% -2.4 18
1933-03-12 Espanol W 1-0 1551 1684 53.8% 17.7% 28.5% +7.5 11
1933-03-12 @ Alaves L 0-1 1684 1551 28.5% 17.7% 53.8% -7.5 20
1933-03-12 Real Betis D 3-3 1627 1536 73.3% 17.0% 9.7% -2.4 12
1933-03-12 @ Arenas de Getxo D 3-3 1536 1627 9.7% 17.0% 73.3% +2.4 13
1933-03-12 Athletic Bilbao L 2-3 1767 1839 60.7% 17.6% 21.7% -12.9 18
1933-03-12 @ Barcelona W 3-2 1839 1767 21.7% 17.6% 60.7% +12.9 22
1933-03-12 Madrid CF W 4-2 1673 1885 43.5% 17.6% 38.8% +14.1 13
1933-03-12 @ Racing Santander L 2-4 1885 1673 38.8% 17.6% 43.5% -14.1 26
1933-03-12 Donostia FC D 2-2 1583 1630 63.1% 17.5% 19.4% -1.9 12
1933-03-12 @ Valencia D 2-2 1630 1583 19.4% 17.5% 63.1% +1.9 13
1933-03-19 Valencia W 8-2 1852 1581 80.5% 15.8% 3.8% +3.9 24
1933-03-19 @ Athletic Bilbao L 2-8 1581 1852 3.8% 15.8% 80.5% -3.9 12
1933-03-19 Barcelona W 2-1 1677 1754 60.1% 17.6% 22.3% +5.7 22
1933-03-19 @ Espanol L 1-2 1754 1677 22.3% 17.6% 60.1% -5.7 18
1933-03-19 Alaves W 3-1 1538 1558 65.5% 17.5% 17.0% +7.7 15
1933-03-19 @ Real Betis L 1-3 1558 1538 17.0% 17.5% 65.5% -7.7 11
1933-03-19 Arenas de Getxo W 8-2 1870 1625 79.7% 16.0% 4.3% +4.5 28
1933-03-19 @ Madrid CF L 2-8 1625 1870 4.3% 16.0% 79.7% -4.5 12
1933-03-19 Racing Santander W 8-0 1632 1687 62.3% 17.6% 20.1% +37.8 15
1933-03-19 @ Donostia FC L 0-8 1687 1632 20.1% 17.6% 62.3% -37.8 13
1933-03-26 Valencia D 1-1 1551 1577 65.0% 17.5% 17.5% -2.7 12
1933-03-26 @ Alaves D 1-1 1577 1551 17.5% 17.5% 65.0% +2.7 13
1933-03-26 Donostia FC W 6-0 1620 1670 62.8% 17.6% 19.6% +28.1 14
1933-03-26 @ Arenas de Getxo L 0-6 1670 1620 19.6% 17.6% 62.8% -28.1 15
1933-03-26 Barcelona D 4-4 1650 1749 57.8% 17.6% 24.6% -1.0 14
1933-03-26 @ Racing Santander D 4-4 1749 1650 24.6% 17.6% 57.8% +1.0 19
1933-03-26 Athletic Bilbao L 0-1 1875 1856 68.6% 17.3% 14.0% -16.4 28
1933-03-26 @ Madrid CF W 1-0 1856 1875 14.0% 17.3% 68.6% +16.3 26
1933-03-28 Real Betis L 1-2 1682 1546 75.6% 16.8% 7.7% -17.1 22
1933-03-28 @ Espanol W 2-1 1546 1682 7.7% 16.8% 75.6% +17.0 17

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1933-03-05 4.33% Donostia FC 1612 2 @ Athletic Bilbao 1857 1
2 1932-12-18 7.02% Espanol 1681 2 @ Athletic Bilbao 1834 0
3 1933-03-28 7.67% Real Betis 1546 2 @ Espanol 1682 1
4 1933-01-08 10.89% Barcelona 1767 3 @ Athletic Bilbao 1836 1
5 1933-03-26 14.03% Athletic Bilbao 1856 1 @ Madrid CF 1875 0
6 1933-01-22 14.66% Madrid CF 1830 2 @ Athletic Bilbao 1840 0
7 1932-12-04 15.35% Espanol 1646 2 @ Arenas de Getxo 1647 0
8 1933-03-12 21.72% Athletic Bilbao 1839 3 @ Barcelona 1767 2
9 1933-02-19 24.12% Athletic Bilbao 1826 5 @ Espanol 1731 2
10 1932-12-04 28.12% Athletic Bilbao 1819 1 @ Racing Santander 1689 0
11 1932-12-11 30.09% Madrid CF 1759 1 @ Alaves 1613 0
12 1933-01-22 32.11% Espanol 1732 2 @ Real Betis 1570 1
13 1933-01-17 32.66% Madrid CF 1794 5 @ Arenas de Getxo 1628 1
14 1933-02-05 36.57% @ Alaves 1542 2 Barcelona 1802 1
15 1933-01-01 36.84% Athletic Bilbao 1820 4 @ Donostia FC 1623 2
16 1933-02-12 37.01% @ Arenas de Getxo 1585 4 Athletic Bilbao 1842 2
17 1932-12-25 38.02% Athletic Bilbao 1800 2 @ Alaves 1594 0
18 1933-01-15 38.51% Athletic Bilbao 1808 5 @ Valencia 1599 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1933-03-19 37.80 @ Donostia FC 8 1632 62.33% Racing Santander 0 1687 20.10% 17.57%
2 1933-01-17 35.59 Madrid CF 5 1794 32.66% @ Arenas de Getxo 1 1628 49.67% 17.67%
3 1932-12-18 34.45 Espanol 2 1681 7.02% @ Athletic Bilbao 0 1834 76.34% 16.65%
4 1933-01-15 31.90 Athletic Bilbao 5 1808 38.51% @ Valencia 1 1599 43.85% 17.64%
5 1933-01-22 30.52 Madrid CF 2 1830 14.66% @ Athletic Bilbao 0 1840 67.96% 17.38%
6 1932-12-04 30.19 Espanol 2 1646 15.35% @ Arenas de Getxo 0 1647 67.23% 17.41%
7 1933-01-29 28.22 Athletic Bilbao 5 1810 44.57% @ Real Betis 1 1558 37.87% 17.56%
8 1933-03-26 28.10 @ Arenas de Getxo 6 1620 62.85% Donostia FC 0 1670 19.59% 17.56%
9 1933-01-08 28.08 Barcelona 3 1767 10.89% @ Athletic Bilbao 1 1836 71.98% 17.13%
10 1933-02-19 27.72 Athletic Bilbao 5 1826 24.12% @ Espanol 2 1731 58.24% 17.64%
11 1933-02-19 27.27 @ Arenas de Getxo 5 1601 46.05% Barcelona 1 1794 36.30% 17.66%
12 1932-11-27 25.75 @ Alaves 8 1591 54.97% Racing Santander 2 1715 27.36% 17.67%
13 1933-02-26 25.01 @ Donostia FC 6 1593 56.52% Espanol 1 1704 25.83% 17.66%
14 1932-12-25 20.37 Athletic Bilbao 2 1800 38.02% @ Alaves 0 1594 44.33% 17.64%
15 1933-01-29 19.64 @ Racing Santander 9 1671 74.25% Alaves 0 1561 8.84% 16.91%
16 1933-03-05 17.97 Donostia FC 2 1612 4.33% @ Athletic Bilbao 1 1857 79.69% 15.99%
17 1933-02-19 17.66 @ Valencia 6 1580 55.94% Racing Santander 2 1695 26.40% 17.66%
18 1933-03-28 17.06 Real Betis 2 1546 7.67% @ Espanol 1 1682 75.58% 16.75%
19 1933-03-26 16.36 Athletic Bilbao 1 1856 14.03% @ Madrid CF 0 1875 68.63% 17.35%
20 1933-01-01 16.13 Athletic Bilbao 4 1820 36.84% @ Donostia FC 2 1623 45.51% 17.65%
21 1933-02-12 16.10 @ Arenas de Getxo 4 1585 37.01% Athletic Bilbao 2 1842 45.44% 17.55%
22 1933-01-17 14.92 @ Racing Santander 7 1665 70.63% Donostia FC 1 1617 12.14% 17.23%
23 1933-03-12 14.13 @ Racing Santander 4 1673 43.52% Madrid CF 2 1885 38.84% 17.64%
24 1932-12-04 12.94 Athletic Bilbao 1 1819 28.12% @ Racing Santander 0 1689 54.21% 17.67%
25 1933-03-12 12.91 Athletic Bilbao 3 1839 21.72% @ Barcelona 2 1767 60.68% 17.60%