1931-32 La Liga Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Real Madrid

1st Title

Relegated

Real Union

11 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Madrid CF

8.51 points above expected

28 points · 19.49 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Alaves

5.10 points below expected

11 points · 16.10 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Madrid CF	18	10	8	0	28	37	15	+22	19.49	+8.51
2	Athletic Bilbao	18	11	3	4	25	47	23	+24	22.64	+2.36
3	Barcelona	18	10	4	4	24	40	26	+14	20.27	+3.73
4	Racing Santander	18	7	6	5	20	36	35	+1	18.65	+1.35
5	Arenas de Getxo	18	7	3	8	17	35	42	-7	17.71	-0.71
6	Espanol	18	7	1	10	15	34	39	-5	16.89	-1.89
7	Valencia	18	6	3	9	15	38	47	-9	15.80	-0.80
8	Donostia FC	18	7	0	11	14	38	35	+3	17.08	-3.08
9	Real Union Relegated	18	4	3	11	11	24	45	-21	15.37	-4.37
10	Alaves	18	5	1	12	11	22	44	-22	16.10	-5.10

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Athletic Bilbao	1870	25	22.64	+2.36	82.8%	12	18	21	23	25	28	34
Barcelona	1817	24	20.27	+3.73	92.4%	10	15	18	20	22	25	32
Madrid CF	1801	28	19.49	+8.51	99.9%	7	15	17	20	21	24	30
Racing Santander	1740	20	18.65	+1.35	73.1%	8	14	17	19	21	24	30
Arenas de Getxo	1650	17	17.71	-0.71	47.1%	7	13	16	18	20	23	28
Espanol	1632	15	16.89	-1.89	32.3%	6	12	15	17	19	22	30
Donostia FC	1630	14	17.08	-3.08	19.5%	6	12	15	17	19	22	28
Valencia	1619	15	15.80	-0.80	46.0%	5	11	14	16	18	21	26
Alaves	1566	11	16.10	-5.10	5.9%	4	11	14	16	18	21	27
Real Union	1535	11	15.37	-4.37	9.5%	5	10	13	15	17	20	26

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ALA	ADG	AB	BAR	DON	ESP	MC	RS	RU	VAL
Alaves	—	1-0-1 2.51	0-0-2 2.02	0-0-2 2.10	0-0-2 2.71	1-0-1 2.66	0-0-2 2.33	0-1-1 2.58	2-0-0 2.89	1-0-1 2.75
Arenas de Getxo	1-0-1 3.12	—	1-0-1 1.77	0-1-1 2.43	1-0-1 2.99	1-0-1 2.97	0-1-1 2.60	1-1-0 2.67	1-0-1 3.27	1-0-1 3.09
Athletic Bilbao	2-0-0 3.61	1-0-1 3.87	—	2-0-0 3.03	1-0-1 3.90	1-0-1 3.83	0-2-0 3.21	1-0-1 3.39	2-0-0 3.60	1-1-0 3.91
Barcelona	2-0-0 3.54	1-1-0 3.19	0-0-2 2.60	—	2-0-0 3.46	1-1-0 3.13	0-1-1 2.98	1-0-1 3.07	2-0-0 3.14	1-1-0 3.61
Donostia FC	2-0-0 2.92	1-0-1 2.64	1-0-1 1.74	0-0-2 2.17	—	1-0-1 2.80	0-0-2 2.67	0-0-2 2.70	1-0-1 3.21	1-0-1 3.08
Espanol	1-0-1 2.97	1-0-1 2.66	1-0-1 1.81	0-1-1 2.51	1-0-1 2.83	—	0-0-2 2.36	1-0-1 2.46	1-0-1 3.08	1-0-1 3.00
Madrid CF	2-0-0 3.30	1-1-0 3.04	0-2-0 2.42	1-1-0 2.65	2-0-0 2.97	2-0-0 3.27	—	0-2-0 2.90	1-1-0 3.82	1-1-0 3.23
Racing Santander	1-1-0 3.05	0-1-1 2.96	1-0-1 2.24	1-0-1 2.56	2-0-0 2.93	1-0-1 3.17	0-2-0 2.74	—	0-2-0 3.45	1-0-1 3.22
Real Union	0-0-2 2.74	1-0-1 2.36	0-0-2 2.05	0-0-2 2.50	1-0-1 2.43	1-0-1 2.55	0-1-1 1.81	0-2-0 2.19	—	1-0-1 2.77
Valencia	1-0-1 2.88	1-0-1 2.54	0-1-1 1.74	0-1-1 2.03	1-0-1 2.55	1-0-1 2.64	0-1-1 2.41	1-0-1 2.41	1-0-1 2.86	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.53	+5.9
Allowed	0.85	-5.2
Differential	0.87	+3.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.44%	3.89%	3.33%	2.22%	2.22%	2.78%	18.89%
1	3.89%	5.56%	5.56%	4.44%	3.89%	3.89%	27.22%
2	3.33%	5.56%	6.67%	5.56%	1.67%	1.11%	23.89%
3	2.22%	4.44%	5.56%	1.11%	—	—	13.33%
4	2.22%	3.89%	1.67%	—	—	0.56%	8.33%
5+	2.78%	3.89%	1.11%	—	0.56%	—	8.33%
Total	18.89%	27.22%	23.89%	13.33%	8.33%	8.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.95	1.95	+0.00
SD	1.62	1.62	2.58
CV	0.83	0.83	—
Max	7	7	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	27.78%
1	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	38.89%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	33.33%	11.11%	11.11%	16.67%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	2.44	-1.22
SD	1.11	1.85	2.51
CV	0.91	0.76	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%
1	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	22.22%
2	—	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	33.33%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	5.56%	33.33%	22.22%	16.67%	16.67%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.94	2.33	-0.39
SD	1.43	1.68	2.77
CV	0.74	0.72	—
Max	5	7	+5
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
3	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	22.22%	38.89%	27.78%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.61	1.28	+1.33
SD	1.94	0.96	2.09
CV	0.74	0.75	—
Max	7	3	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
2	5.56%	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	—	33.33%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	27.78%	16.67%	38.89%	16.67%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.22	1.44	+0.78
SD	1.52	1.10	2.10
CV	0.68	0.76	—
Max	6	3	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	33.33%
1	—	—	16.67%	—	—	11.11%	27.78%
2	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
Total	11.11%	27.78%	44.44%	—	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.11	1.94	+0.17
SD	2.45	1.43	3.38
CV	1.16	0.74	—
Max	7	5	+7
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	22.22%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	22.22%	11.11%	22.22%	22.22%	16.67%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.89	2.17	-0.28
SD	1.60	1.58	2.76
CV	0.85	0.73	—
Max	6	5	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
1	11.11%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	44.44%	33.33%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.06	0.83	+1.22
SD	1.39	0.92	1.56
CV	0.68	1.11	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	+0

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
1	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	22.22%
2	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	44.44%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	38.89%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	1.94	+0.06
SD	1.33	1.83	2.04
CV	0.66	0.94	—
Max	5	6	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	22.22%
1	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	11.11%	38.89%
2	5.56%	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	27.78%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	16.67%	27.78%	22.22%	—	22.22%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.33	2.50	-1.17
SD	1.08	1.65	2.28
CV	0.81	0.66	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%	5.56%	33.33%
2	—	—	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
Total	16.67%	22.22%	11.11%	16.67%	22.22%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.11	2.61	-0.50
SD	1.84	2.15	3.00
CV	0.87	0.82	—
Max	6	7	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Madrid CF	28	19.49	+8.51
2	Barcelona	24	20.27	+3.73
3	Athletic Bilbao	25	22.64	+2.36
4	Racing Santander	20	18.65	+1.35
5	Arenas de Getxo	17	17.71	-0.71

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Alaves	11	16.10	-5.10
2	Real Union	11	15.37	-4.37
3	Donostia FC	14	17.08	-3.08
4	Espanol	15	16.89	-1.89
5	Valencia	15	15.80	-0.80

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Madrid CF	5	Feb 14 – Mar 13	1 in 45
2	Athletic Bilbao	4	Feb 14 – Mar 6	1 in 32
3	Barcelona	3	Mar 13 – Mar 27	1 in 18
4	Donostia FC	3	Dec 20 – Jan 3	1 in 13
5	Alaves	2	Jan 24 – Jan 31	1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Alaves	5	Feb 14 – Mar 13	1 in 99
2	Real Union	3	Nov 22 – Dec 20	1 in 43
3	Donostia FC	4	Jan 10 – Jan 31	1 in 21
4	Arenas de Getxo	4	Jan 24 – Feb 14	1 in 14
5	Barcelona	2	Feb 28 – Mar 6	1 in 10

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Madrid CF	18	Nov 22 – Apr 3	1 in 35,352
2	Alaves	3	Jan 24 – Feb 7	1 in 15
3	Athletic Bilbao	7	Jan 24 – Mar 6	1 in 7
4	Espanol	2	Feb 16 – Feb 21	1 in 6
5	Arenas de Getxo	3	Nov 22 – Dec 20	1 in 4

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Racing Santander	6	Jan 24 – Feb 28	1 in 111
2	Barcelona	3	Feb 21 – Mar 6	1 in 16
3	Alaves	6	Feb 7 – Mar 13	1 in 14
4	Valencia	6	Dec 20 – Jan 24	1 in 13
5	Real Union	5	Nov 22 – Jan 3	1 in 9

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Madrid CF	13.52%	19.02%	17.47%	13.91%	11.20%	8.67%	6.45%	4.68%	3.31%	1.77%
Athletic Bilbao	52.69%	20.49%	10.73%	6.52%	4.16%	2.48%	1.45%	0.87%	0.46%	0.15%
Barcelona	16.30%	22.77%	18.84%	14.04%	9.80%	7.07%	5.05%	3.34%	1.90%	0.89%
Racing Santander	6.28%	12.23%	14.45%	14.79%	13.09%	11.81%	10.41%	7.92%	5.96%	3.06%
Arenas de Getxo	3.66%	7.27%	10.37%	11.70%	13.19%	12.95%	12.86%	11.04%	9.58%	7.38%
Espanol	2.41%	5.02%	7.23%	9.70%	11.59%	12.89%	13.53%	13.64%	13.26%	10.73%
Valencia	0.97%	2.71%	4.64%	6.54%	8.50%	10.97%	12.58%	15.88%	17.46%	19.75%
Donostia FC	2.68%	5.93%	9.02%	11.10%	12.79%	13.30%	12.45%	12.15%	11.65%	8.93%
Real Union	0.55%	1.88%	2.81%	4.87%	6.88%	9.05%	11.85%	15.29%	19.20%	27.62%
Alaves	0.94%	2.68%	4.44%	6.83%	8.80%	10.81%	13.37%	15.19%	17.22%	19.72%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+48.89%

Strong Edge

65.56%17.78%16.67%

Elo Value

Home Edge

146 Elo

0.007 goals per Elo point

0185.74400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+1.37 goals

Strong Home

-2+1.28+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.0

Top-Heavy

124610

Title Margin

Expected

0.17/gm

Tight Race

00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.38 * Some Luck: 2.38 to 3.57 * Lucky: 3.57 to 4.76 * Wild Swing: 4.76 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.63 * Close: 1.63 to 2.45 * Off: 2.45 to 3.26 * Way Off: 3.26 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.72 * A Surprise: 0.72 to 1.16 * Several Surprises: 1.16 to 1.59 * Many Surprises: 1.59 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.91 points

Lucky

02.977

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.20

Pinpoint

02.045

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

99.86%

Madrid CF

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

5.95%

Alaves

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

0 of 1

As Expected

00.71

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.18

Even

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.41

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

72%

Clear Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

87%

Strong Edge

50%90%100%

Close Games

Expected

48%

Frequent

0%43%100%

Blowouts

Expected

32%

Very Frequent

0%34%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.49

Highly Predictable

00.472

Matchup Imbalance

0.66

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.77

Chaotic

01.002

Repeatability

0.71

Strong Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

18%

Chalky

0%14%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

18%

As Expected

0%12%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.23 * Well Above Noise: 0.23 and up.

Probability calibration

0.06

Borderline

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.37

Very Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.123

Near Noise Ceiling

00.1170.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Athletic Bilbao	99.85%	0.15%
Barcelona	99.11%	0.89%
Madrid CF	98.23%	1.77%
Racing Santander	96.94%	3.06%
Arenas de Getxo	92.62%	7.38%
Donostia FC	91.07%	8.93%
Espanol	89.27%	10.73%
Alaves	80.28%	19.72%
Valencia	80.25%	19.75%
Real Union	72.38%	27.62%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1931-11-22	Racing Santander	L 1-2	1651	1684	67.7%	18.6%	13.7%	-20.2	0
1931-11-22	@ Alaves	W 2-1	1684	1651	13.7%	18.6%	67.7%	+20.2	2
1931-11-22	Donostia FC	W 2-1	1703	1685	71.0%	18.4%	10.6%	+3.8	2
1931-11-22	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 1-2	1685	1703	10.6%	18.4%	71.0%	-3.8	0
1931-11-22	Valencia	W 3-0	1681	1608	73.9%	18.2%	7.9%	+8.5	2
1931-11-22	@ Espanol	L 0-3	1608	1681	7.9%	18.2%	73.9%	-8.5	0
1931-11-22	Athletic Bilbao	D 1-1	1687	1790	61.9%	18.8%	19.3%	-3.2	1
1931-11-22	@ Madrid CF	D 1-1	1790	1687	19.3%	18.8%	61.9%	+3.2	1
1931-11-22	Barcelona	L 1-3	1673	1698	68.3%	18.6%	13.1%	-35.3	0
1931-11-22	@ Real Union	W 3-1	1698	1673	13.1%	18.6%	68.3%	+35.3	2
1931-11-29	Alaves	W 3-2	1793	1631	77.4%	17.6%	4.9%	+1.8	3
1931-11-29	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 2-3	1631	1793	4.9%	17.6%	77.4%	-1.8	0
1931-11-29	Arenas de Getxo	D 2-2	1733	1707	71.5%	18.4%	10.1%	-3.6	3
1931-11-29	@ Barcelona	D 2-2	1707	1733	10.1%	18.4%	71.5%	+3.6	3
1931-11-29	Espanol	W 2-1	1705	1689	70.9%	18.4%	10.7%	+3.9	4
1931-11-29	@ Racing Santander	L 1-2	1689	1705	10.7%	18.4%	70.9%	-3.9	2
1931-11-29	Madrid CF	L 1-2	1681	1684	69.7%	18.5%	11.8%	-20.8	0
1931-11-29	@ Donostia FC	W 2-1	1684	1681	11.8%	18.5%	69.7%	+20.8	3
1931-11-29	Real Union	W 5-1	1599	1638	67.3%	18.6%	14.1%	+16.0	2
1931-11-29	@ Valencia	L 1-5	1638	1599	14.1%	18.6%	67.3%	-16.0	0
1931-12-20	Donostia FC	L 1-2	1629	1660	67.8%	18.6%	13.6%	-20.2	0
1931-12-20	@ Alaves	W 2-1	1660	1629	13.6%	18.6%	67.8%	+20.2	2
1931-12-20	Racing Santander	W 3-1	1710	1709	70.0%	18.5%	11.5%	+7.2	5
1931-12-20	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 1-3	1709	1710	11.5%	18.5%	70.0%	-7.2	4
1931-12-20	Barcelona	L 0-3	1686	1729	66.9%	18.6%	14.5%	-57.9	2
1931-12-20	@ Espanol	W 3-0	1729	1686	14.5%	18.6%	66.9%	+57.9	5
1931-12-20	Athletic Bilbao	L 1-5	1622	1795	54.5%	18.9%	26.6%	-51.4	0
1931-12-20	@ Real Union	W 5-1	1795	1622	26.6%	18.9%	54.5%	+51.4	5
1931-12-20	Madrid CF	D 1-1	1615	1705	63.1%	18.8%	18.1%	-3.4	3
1931-12-20	@ Valencia	D 1-1	1705	1615	18.1%	18.8%	63.1%	+3.4	4
1931-12-27	Barcelona	W 3-0	1846	1787	73.2%	18.2%	8.5%	+9.1	7
1931-12-27	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 0-3	1787	1846	8.5%	18.2%	73.2%	-9.1	5
1931-12-27	Arenas de Getxo	W 4-2	1628	1717	63.1%	18.8%	18.1%	+9.8	4
1931-12-27	@ Espanol	L 2-4	1717	1628	18.1%	18.8%	63.1%	-9.8	5
1931-12-27	Real Union	D 2-2	1701	1571	76.3%	17.8%	5.8%	-4.2	5
1931-12-27	@ Racing Santander	D 2-2	1571	1701	5.8%	17.8%	76.3%	+4.2	1
1931-12-27	Alaves	W 5-0	1708	1609	75.1%	18.0%	6.9%	+12.0	6
1931-12-27	@ Madrid CF	L 0-5	1609	1708	6.9%	18.0%	75.1%	-12.0	0
1931-12-27	Valencia	W 7-1	1680	1612	73.7%	18.2%	8.1%	+13.7	4
1931-12-27	@ Donostia FC	L 1-7	1612	1680	8.1%	18.2%	73.7%	-13.7	3
1932-01-03	Madrid CF	D 2-2	1708	1720	69.1%	18.5%	12.3%	-3.3	6
1932-01-03	@ Arenas de Getxo	D 2-2	1720	1708	12.3%	18.5%	69.1%	+3.3	7
1932-01-03	Racing Santander	W 4-2	1778	1697	74.3%	18.1%	7.6%	+4.4	7
1932-01-03	@ Barcelona	L 2-4	1697	1778	7.6%	18.1%	74.3%	-4.4	5
1932-01-03	Real Union	W 5-0	1694	1575	75.9%	17.9%	6.2%	+10.8	6
1932-01-03	@ Donostia FC	L 0-5	1575	1694	6.2%	17.9%	75.9%	-10.8	1
1932-01-03	Athletic Bilbao	D 0-0	1598	1856	43.6%	18.8%	37.6%	-0.5	4
1932-01-03	@ Valencia	D 0-0	1856	1598	37.6%	18.8%	43.6%	+0.5	8
1932-01-06	Espanol	W 4-1	1597	1637	67.2%	18.6%	14.2%	+12.4	2
1932-01-06	@ Alaves	L 1-4	1637	1597	14.2%	18.6%	67.2%	-12.4	4
1932-01-10	Donostia FC	W 5-1	1856	1705	77.1%	17.7%	5.2%	+6.2	10
1932-01-10	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-5	1705	1856	5.2%	17.7%	77.1%	-6.2	6
1932-01-10	Alaves	W 6-0	1782	1610	77.8%	17.5%	4.7%	+9.6	9
1932-01-10	@ Barcelona	L 0-6	1610	1782	4.7%	17.5%	77.8%	-9.6	2
1932-01-10	Valencia	W 4-1	1693	1598	74.9%	18.0%	7.0%	+6.4	7
1932-01-10	@ Racing Santander	L 1-4	1598	1693	7.0%	18.0%	74.9%	-6.4	4
1932-01-10	Espanol	W 3-0	1723	1625	75.0%	18.0%	6.9%	+7.5	9
1932-01-10	@ Madrid CF	L 0-3	1625	1723	6.9%	18.0%	75.0%	-7.5	4
1932-01-10	Arenas de Getxo	W 1-0	1564	1704	58.2%	18.8%	23.0%	+8.3	3
1932-01-10	@ Real Union	L 0-1	1704	1564	23.0%	18.8%	58.2%	-8.3	6
1932-01-17	Alaves	W 4-2	1696	1600	75.0%	18.0%	7.0%	+4.0	8
1932-01-17	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 2-4	1600	1696	7.0%	18.0%	75.0%	-4.0	2
1932-01-17	Athletic Bilbao	W 1-0	1618	1862	45.4%	18.8%	35.8%	+12.0	6
1932-01-17	@ Espanol	L 0-1	1862	1618	35.8%	18.8%	45.4%	-12.0	10
1932-01-17	Real Union	W 3-2	1731	1572	77.3%	17.6%	5.0%	+1.8	11
1932-01-17	@ Madrid CF	L 2-3	1572	1731	5.0%	17.6%	77.3%	-1.8	3
1932-01-17	Racing Santander	L 1-5	1699	1699	69.9%	18.5%	11.6%	-66.0	6
1932-01-17	@ Donostia FC	W 5-1	1699	1699	11.6%	18.5%	69.9%	+66.0	9
1932-01-17	Barcelona	D 0-0	1591	1792	51.1%	18.9%	30.0%	-1.7	5
1932-01-17	@ Valencia	D 0-0	1792	1591	30.0%	18.9%	51.1%	+1.7	10
1932-01-24	Valencia	W 2-1	1596	1589	70.3%	18.5%	11.2%	+4.1	4
1932-01-24	@ Alaves	L 1-2	1589	1596	11.2%	18.5%	70.3%	-4.1	5
1932-01-24	Arenas de Getxo	W 4-1	1850	1700	77.0%	17.7%	5.3%	+4.8	12
1932-01-24	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-4	1700	1850	5.3%	17.7%	77.0%	-4.8	8
1932-01-24	Donostia FC	W 2-0	1794	1633	77.4%	17.6%	5.0%	+3.7	12
1932-01-24	@ Barcelona	L 0-2	1633	1794	5.0%	17.6%	77.4%	-3.7	6
1932-01-24	Madrid CF	D 0-0	1765	1733	71.9%	18.4%	9.8%	-5.5	10
1932-01-24	@ Racing Santander	D 0-0	1733	1765	9.8%	18.4%	71.9%	+5.5	12
1932-01-24	Espanol	W 4-1	1571	1630	65.7%	18.7%	15.6%	+13.5	5
1932-01-24	@ Real Union	L 1-4	1630	1571	15.6%	18.7%	65.7%	-13.5	6
1932-01-31	Racing Santander	W 3-2	1855	1760	74.9%	18.0%	7.0%	+2.5	14
1932-01-31	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 2-3	1760	1855	7.0%	18.0%	74.9%	-2.5	10
1932-01-31	Donostia FC	W 2-0	1616	1629	69.1%	18.5%	12.4%	+8.9	8
1932-01-31	@ Espanol	L 0-2	1629	1616	12.4%	18.5%	69.1%	-8.9	6
1932-01-31	Barcelona	W 2-0	1738	1797	65.7%	18.7%	15.6%	+11.1	14
1932-01-31	@ Madrid CF	L 0-2	1797	1738	15.6%	18.7%	65.7%	-11.1	12
1932-01-31	Alaves	L 0-2	1584	1600	68.9%	18.6%	12.6%	-41.1	5
1932-01-31	@ Real Union	W 2-0	1600	1584	12.6%	18.6%	68.9%	+41.1	6
1932-01-31	Arenas de Getxo	W 3-2	1585	1695	61.2%	18.8%	20.0%	+6.5	7
1932-01-31	@ Valencia	L 2-3	1695	1585	20.0%	18.8%	61.2%	-6.5	8
1932-02-07	Madrid CF	D 3-3	1857	1749	75.5%	18.0%	6.6%	-3.4	15
1932-02-07	@ Athletic Bilbao	D 3-3	1749	1857	6.6%	18.0%	75.5%	+3.4	15
1932-02-07	Real Union	W 3-2	1786	1543	79.8%	17.0%	3.2%	+1.1	14
1932-02-07	@ Barcelona	L 2-3	1543	1786	3.2%	17.0%	79.8%	-1.1	5
1932-02-07	Alaves	D 1-1	1757	1641	75.8%	17.9%	6.3%	-5.6	11
1932-02-07	@ Racing Santander	D 1-1	1641	1757	6.3%	17.9%	75.8%	+5.6	7
1932-02-07	Arenas de Getxo	W 7-0	1620	1689	64.9%	18.7%	16.4%	+37.1	8
1932-02-07	@ Donostia FC	L 0-7	1689	1620	16.4%	18.7%	64.9%	-37.1	8
1932-02-07	Espanol	W 3-1	1592	1625	67.7%	18.6%	13.7%	+8.5	9
1932-02-07	@ Valencia	L 1-3	1625	1592	13.7%	18.6%	67.7%	-8.5	8
1932-02-14	Athletic Bilbao	L 0-1	1647	1854	50.3%	18.9%	30.8%	-16.0	7
1932-02-14	@ Alaves	W 1-0	1854	1647	30.8%	18.9%	50.3%	+16.0	17
1932-02-14	Barcelona	L 1-3	1652	1787	58.6%	18.8%	22.6%	-30.2	8
1932-02-14	@ Arenas de Getxo	W 3-1	1787	1652	22.6%	18.8%	58.6%	+30.2	16
1932-02-14	Donostia FC	W 1-0	1752	1657	74.9%	18.0%	7.0%	+2.8	17
1932-02-14	@ Madrid CF	L 0-1	1657	1752	7.0%	18.0%	74.9%	-2.8	8
1932-02-16	Racing Santander	W 6-1	1616	1752	58.7%	18.8%	22.5%	+29.6	10
1932-02-16	@ Espanol	L 1-6	1752	1616	22.5%	18.8%	58.7%	-29.6	11
1932-02-16	Valencia	W 3-2	1542	1600	65.8%	18.7%	15.6%	+5.2	7
1932-02-16	@ Real Union	L 2-3	1600	1542	15.6%	18.7%	65.8%	-5.2	9
1932-02-21	Real Union	W 2-1	1870	1547	81.6%	16.4%	2.1%	+0.8	19
1932-02-21	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 1-2	1547	1870	2.1%	16.4%	81.6%	-0.8	7
1932-02-21	Espanol	D 2-2	1818	1646	77.8%	17.6%	4.7%	-4.4	17
1932-02-21	@ Barcelona	D 2-2	1646	1818	4.7%	17.6%	77.8%	+4.4	11
1932-02-21	Arenas de Getxo	D 1-1	1722	1621	75.1%	18.0%	6.9%	-5.5	12
1932-02-21	@ Racing Santander	D 1-1	1621	1722	6.9%	18.0%	75.1%	+5.5	9
1932-02-21	Valencia	W 4-1	1755	1595	77.4%	17.6%	5.0%	+4.6	19
1932-02-21	@ Madrid CF	L 1-4	1595	1755	5.0%	17.6%	77.4%	-4.6	9
1932-02-21	Alaves	W 4-1	1654	1631	71.4%	18.4%	10.3%	+9.2	10
1932-02-21	@ Donostia FC	L 1-4	1631	1654	10.3%	18.4%	71.4%	-9.2	7
1932-02-28	Madrid CF	L 0-1	1622	1760	58.4%	18.8%	22.8%	-18.4	7
1932-02-28	@ Alaves	W 1-0	1760	1622	22.8%	18.8%	58.4%	+18.4	21
1932-02-28	Espanol	W 3-2	1627	1650	68.4%	18.6%	13.1%	+4.5	11
1932-02-28	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 2-3	1650	1627	13.1%	18.6%	68.4%	-4.5	11
1932-02-28	Athletic Bilbao	L 1-3	1813	1871	65.8%	18.7%	15.5%	-34.0	17
1932-02-28	@ Barcelona	W 3-1	1871	1813	15.5%	18.7%	65.8%	+34.0	21
1932-02-28	Racing Santander	D 2-2	1546	1717	54.8%	18.9%	26.3%	-1.6	8
1932-02-28	@ Real Union	D 2-2	1717	1546	26.3%	18.9%	54.8%	+1.5	13
1932-02-28	Donostia FC	W 4-0	1591	1664	64.6%	18.7%	16.7%	+22.3	11
1932-02-28	@ Valencia	L 0-4	1664	1591	16.7%	18.7%	64.6%	-22.3	10
1932-03-06	Valencia	W 7-2	1905	1613	80.9%	16.6%	2.5%	+2.9	23
1932-03-06	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 2-7	1613	1905	2.5%	16.6%	80.9%	-2.9	11
1932-03-06	Alaves	W 4-0	1646	1603	72.4%	18.3%	9.3%	+12.9	13
1932-03-06	@ Espanol	L 0-4	1603	1646	9.3%	18.3%	72.4%	-12.9	7
1932-03-06	Barcelona	W 3-2	1718	1779	65.5%	18.7%	15.8%	+5.3	15
1932-03-06	@ Racing Santander	L 2-3	1779	1718	15.8%	18.7%	65.5%	-5.3	17
1932-03-06	Arenas de Getxo	W 4-0	1778	1631	76.9%	17.7%	5.4%	+7.6	23
1932-03-06	@ Madrid CF	L 0-4	1631	1778	5.4%	17.7%	76.9%	-7.6	11
1932-03-06	Donostia FC	W 2-0	1545	1641	62.5%	18.8%	18.7%	+13.0	10
1932-03-06	@ Real Union	L 0-2	1641	1545	18.7%	18.8%	62.5%	-13.0	10
1932-03-13	Barcelona	L 1-3	1590	1774	53.2%	18.9%	27.9%	-27.5	7
1932-03-13	@ Alaves	W 3-1	1774	1590	27.9%	18.9%	53.2%	+27.5	19
1932-03-13	Real Union	W 5-0	1624	1558	73.6%	18.2%	8.2%	+14.2	13
1932-03-13	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 0-5	1558	1624	8.2%	18.2%	73.6%	-14.2	10
1932-03-13	Madrid CF	L 1-2	1659	1786	59.6%	18.8%	21.6%	-17.7	13
1932-03-13	@ Espanol	W 2-1	1786	1659	21.6%	18.8%	59.6%	+17.7	25
1932-03-13	Athletic Bilbao	W 3-2	1628	1908	40.5%	18.8%	40.7%	+11.9	12
1932-03-13	@ Donostia FC	L 2-3	1908	1628	40.7%	18.8%	40.5%	-11.9	23
1932-03-13	Racing Santander	W 6-4	1610	1723	60.9%	18.8%	20.3%	+9.9	13
1932-03-13	@ Valencia	L 4-6	1723	1610	20.3%	18.8%	60.9%	-9.9	15
1932-03-20	Arenas de Getxo	W 3-1	1563	1638	64.4%	18.7%	16.9%	+10.3	9
1932-03-20	@ Alaves	L 1-3	1638	1563	16.9%	18.7%	64.4%	-10.3	13
1932-03-20	Espanol	W 4-0	1896	1641	80.1%	16.9%	3.0%	+4.2	25
1932-03-20	@ Athletic Bilbao	L 0-4	1641	1896	3.0%	16.9%	80.1%	-4.2	13
1932-03-20	Valencia	W 3-2	1802	1620	78.1%	17.5%	4.5%	+1.6	21
1932-03-20	@ Barcelona	L 2-3	1620	1802	4.5%	17.5%	78.1%	-1.6	13
1932-03-20	Donostia FC	W 2-1	1713	1640	73.9%	18.2%	7.9%	+2.9	17
1932-03-20	@ Racing Santander	L 1-2	1640	1713	7.9%	18.2%	73.9%	-2.9	12
1932-03-20	Madrid CF	D 1-1	1544	1804	43.3%	18.8%	37.9%	-0.4	11
1932-03-20	@ Real Union	D 1-1	1804	1544	37.9%	18.8%	43.3%	+0.4	26
1932-03-27	Athletic Bilbao	W 2-1	1628	1900	41.5%	18.8%	39.7%	+12.3	15
1932-03-27	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 1-2	1900	1628	39.7%	18.8%	41.5%	-12.3	25
1932-03-27	Real Union	W 3-1	1637	1543	74.9%	18.1%	7.1%	+4.6	15
1932-03-27	@ Espanol	L 1-3	1543	1637	7.1%	18.1%	74.9%	-4.6	11
1932-03-27	Racing Santander	D 0-0	1804	1716	74.6%	18.1%	7.3%	-6.0	27
1932-03-27	@ Madrid CF	D 0-0	1716	1804	7.3%	18.1%	74.6%	+6.0	18
1932-03-27	Barcelona	L 0-1	1637	1803	55.3%	18.9%	25.8%	-17.5	12
1932-03-27	@ Donostia FC	W 1-0	1803	1637	25.8%	18.9%	55.3%	+17.5	23
1932-03-27	Alaves	W 5-1	1618	1573	72.5%	18.3%	9.2%	+10.6	15
1932-03-27	@ Valencia	L 1-5	1573	1618	9.2%	18.3%	72.5%	-10.6	9
1932-04-03	Real Union	W 1-0	1562	1539	71.3%	18.4%	10.3%	+4.0	11
1932-04-03	@ Alaves	L 0-1	1539	1562	10.3%	18.4%	71.3%	-4.0	11
1932-04-03	Valencia	W 4-1	1640	1629	70.6%	18.4%	10.9%	+9.8	17
1932-04-03	@ Arenas de Getxo	L 1-4	1629	1640	10.9%	18.4%	70.6%	-9.8	15
1932-04-03	Madrid CF	D 2-2	1821	1798	71.3%	18.4%	10.3%	-3.6	24
1932-04-03	@ Barcelona	D 2-2	1798	1821	10.3%	18.4%	71.3%	+3.6	28
1932-04-03	Athletic Bilbao	W 2-0	1722	1888	55.4%	18.9%	25.8%	+17.2	20
1932-04-03	@ Racing Santander	L 0-2	1888	1722	25.8%	18.9%	55.4%	-17.2	25
1932-04-03	Espanol	W 5-2	1620	1642	68.5%	18.6%	13.0%	+9.9	14
1932-04-03	@ Donostia FC	L 2-5	1642	1620	13.0%	18.6%	68.5%	-9.9	15

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1932-01-17	11.61%	Racing Santander	1699	5	@ Donostia FC	1699	1
2	1931-11-29	11.75%	Madrid CF	1684	2	@ Donostia FC	1681	1
3	1932-01-31	12.56%	Alaves	1600	2	@ Real Union	1584	0
4	1931-11-22	13.11%	Barcelona	1698	3	@ Real Union	1673	1
5	1931-12-20	13.55%	Donostia FC	1660	2	@ Alaves	1629	1
6	1931-11-22	13.71%	Racing Santander	1684	2	@ Alaves	1651	1
7	1931-12-20	14.46%	Barcelona	1729	3	@ Espanol	1686	0
8	1932-02-28	15.49%	Athletic Bilbao	1871	3	@ Barcelona	1813	1
9	1932-03-13	21.63%	Madrid CF	1786	2	@ Espanol	1659	1
10	1932-02-14	22.55%	Barcelona	1787	3	@ Arenas de Getxo	1652	1
11	1932-02-28	22.81%	Madrid CF	1760	1	@ Alaves	1622	0
12	1932-03-27	25.83%	Barcelona	1803	1	@ Donostia FC	1637	0
13	1931-12-20	26.63%	Athletic Bilbao	1795	5	@ Real Union	1622	1
14	1932-03-13	27.93%	Barcelona	1774	3	@ Alaves	1590	1
15	1932-02-14	30.84%	Athletic Bilbao	1854	1	@ Alaves	1647	0
16	1932-03-13	40.50%	@ Donostia FC	1628	3	Athletic Bilbao	1908	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1932-01-17	66.04	Racing Santander	5	1699	11.61%	@ Donostia FC	1	1699	69.89%	18.49%
2	1931-12-20	57.91	Barcelona	3	1729	14.46%	@ Espanol	0	1686	66.90%	18.64%
3	1931-12-20	51.39	Athletic Bilbao	5	1795	26.63%	@ Real Union	1	1622	54.52%	18.85%
4	1932-01-31	41.12	Alaves	2	1600	12.56%	@ Real Union	0	1584	68.89%	18.55%
5	1932-02-07	37.12	@ Donostia FC	7	1620	64.92%	Arenas de Getxo	0	1689	16.38%	18.71%
6	1931-11-22	35.30	Barcelona	3	1698	13.11%	@ Real Union	1	1673	68.31%	18.58%
7	1932-02-28	33.95	Athletic Bilbao	3	1871	15.49%	@ Barcelona	1	1813	65.83%	18.68%
8	1932-02-14	30.19	Barcelona	3	1787	22.55%	@ Arenas de Getxo	1	1652	58.62%	18.83%
9	1932-02-16	29.59	@ Espanol	6	1616	58.70%	Racing Santander	1	1752	22.48%	18.83%
10	1932-03-13	27.52	Barcelona	3	1774	27.93%	@ Alaves	1	1590	53.22%	18.85%
11	1932-02-28	22.31	@ Valencia	4	1591	64.57%	Donostia FC	0	1664	16.71%	18.72%
12	1931-11-29	20.84	Madrid CF	2	1684	11.75%	@ Donostia FC	1	1681	69.74%	18.50%
13	1931-12-20	20.23	Donostia FC	2	1660	13.55%	@ Alaves	1	1629	67.85%	18.60%
14	1931-11-22	20.18	Racing Santander	2	1684	13.71%	@ Alaves	1	1651	67.68%	18.61%
15	1932-02-28	18.41	Madrid CF	1	1760	22.81%	@ Alaves	0	1622	58.36%	18.83%
16	1932-03-13	17.71	Madrid CF	2	1786	21.63%	@ Espanol	1	1659	59.55%	18.82%
17	1932-03-27	17.48	Barcelona	1	1803	25.83%	@ Donostia FC	0	1637	55.33%	18.85%
18	1932-04-03	17.18	@ Racing Santander	2	1722	55.40%	Athletic Bilbao	0	1888	25.75%	18.85%
19	1932-02-14	16.00	Athletic Bilbao	1	1854	30.84%	@ Alaves	0	1647	50.31%	18.85%
20	1931-11-29	15.95	@ Valencia	5	1599	67.26%	Real Union	1	1638	14.12%	18.63%
21	1932-03-13	14.20	@ Arenas de Getxo	5	1624	73.58%	Real Union	0	1558	8.23%	18.20%
22	1931-12-27	13.73	@ Donostia FC	7	1680	73.70%	Valencia	1	1612	8.11%	18.18%
23	1932-01-24	13.54	@ Real Union	4	1571	65.72%	Espanol	1	1630	15.60%	18.68%
24	1932-03-06	13.02	@ Real Union	2	1545	62.50%	Donostia FC	0	1641	18.73%	18.77%
25	1932-03-06	12.93	@ Espanol	4	1646	72.41%	Alaves	0	1603	9.28%	18.31%