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1930-31 La Liga Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Athletic Bilbao

22 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1929-30

Relegated

Europa

13 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Racing Santander

5.35 points above expected

22 points · 16.65 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Espanol

4.63 points below expected

14 points · 18.63 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Athletic Bilbao Champion 18 11 0 7 22 73 33 +40 22.56 -0.56
2 Racing Santander 18 10 2 6 22 49 37 +12 16.65 +5.35
3 Real Sociedad 18 10 2 6 22 42 39 +3 17.86 +4.14
4 Barcelona 18 7 7 4 21 40 43 -3 18.68 +2.32
5 Arenas de Getxo 18 8 2 8 18 35 38 -3 18.79 -0.79
6 Real Madrid 18 7 4 7 18 24 27 -3 17.66 +0.34
7 Real Union 18 6 4 8 16 41 45 -4 16.95 -0.95
8 Espanol 18 6 2 10 14 32 45 -13 18.63 -4.63
9 Alaves 18 5 4 9 14 25 39 -14 16.49 -2.49
10 Europa Relegated 18 6 1 11 13 23 38 -15 15.73 -2.73

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Athletic Bilbao 1921 22 22.56 -0.56 49.3% 10 17 20 23 25 28 34
Arenas de Getxo 1769 18 18.79 -0.79 46.8% 6 14 17 19 21 24 31
Barcelona 1765 21 18.68 +2.32 81.2% 7 14 16 19 21 24 32
Real Madrid 1739 18 17.66 +0.34 60.5% 6 13 15 18 20 23 29
Real Sociedad 1738 22 17.86 +4.14 92.9% 5 13 16 18 20 23 30
Racing Santander 1735 22 16.65 +5.35 96.5% 5 11 15 17 19 22 29
Espanol 1725 14 18.63 -4.63 9.2% 7 14 17 19 21 24 31
Real Union 1711 16 16.95 -0.95 44.4% 6 12 15 17 19 22 30
Alaves 1669 14 16.49 -2.49 26.1% 5 11 14 16 19 22 28
Europa 1649 13 15.73 -2.73 24.0% 4 10 14 16 18 21 28

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ALA ADG AB BAR ESP EUR RS RM RS RU
Alaves —
1-1-0
2.53
0-0-2
1.89
0-2-0
2.46
1-0-1
2.54
1-0-1
2.99
0-0-2
2.83
1-0-1
2.62
0-1-1
2.73
1-0-1
2.79
Arenas de Getxo
0-1-1
3.15
 —
1-0-1
2.24
1-0-1
2.90
1-0-1
2.89
2-0-0
3.28
1-0-1
3.10
2-0-0
3.00
0-0-2
3.03
0-1-1
3.15
Athletic Bilbao
2-0-0
3.80
1-0-1
3.44
 —
1-0-1
3.34
2-0-0
3.53
1-0-1
3.78
1-0-1
3.75
1-0-1
3.45
1-0-1
3.57
1-0-1
3.79
Barcelona
0-2-0
3.22
1-0-1
2.78
1-0-1
2.35
 —
1-1-0
2.80
0-1-1
3.31
1-1-0
3.08
1-1-0
3.02
1-0-1
2.99
1-1-0
3.07
Espanol
1-0-1
3.14
1-0-1
2.79
0-0-2
2.15
0-1-1
2.88
 —
1-0-1
3.34
1-0-1
3.19
0-1-1
3.03
1-0-1
2.85
1-0-1
3.15
Europa
1-0-1
2.69
0-0-2
2.41
1-0-1
1.92
1-1-0
2.37
1-0-1
2.34
 —
0-0-2
2.75
0-0-2
2.59
1-0-1
2.46
1-0-1
2.65
Racing Santander
2-0-0
2.85
1-0-1
2.58
1-0-1
1.94
0-1-1
2.60
1-0-1
2.50
2-0-0
2.93
 —
1-1-0
2.58
1-0-1
2.66
1-0-1
2.87
Real Madrid
1-0-1
3.06
0-0-2
2.67
1-0-1
2.24
0-1-1
2.66
1-1-0
2.65
2-0-0
3.09
0-1-1
3.09
 —
1-0-1
2.74
1-1-0
2.85
Real Sociedad
1-1-0
2.94
2-0-0
2.65
1-0-1
2.11
1-0-1
2.68
1-0-1
2.83
1-0-1
3.22
1-0-1
3.02
1-0-1
2.94
 —
1-1-0
2.91
Real Union
1-0-1
2.89
1-1-0
2.53
1-0-1
1.90
0-1-1
2.61
1-0-1
2.53
1-0-1
3.02
1-0-1
2.81
0-1-1
2.83
0-1-1
2.77
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.52 +1.7
Allowed 0.08 -1.9
Differential 0.57 +1.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.22%3.89%3.89%1.67%2.22%1.67%15.56%
13.89%7.78%6.11%3.33%6.67%3.89%31.67%
23.89%6.11%3.33%1.67%2.22%2.22%19.44%
31.67%3.33%1.67%1.11%1.11%1.11%10.00%
42.22%6.67%2.22%1.11%1.11%0.56%13.89%
5+1.67%3.89%2.22%1.11%0.56%—9.44%
Total15.56%31.67%19.44%10.00%13.89%9.44%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.13 2.13 +0.00
SD 1.85 1.85 2.83
CV 0.87 0.87 —
Max 12 12 +11
Min 0 0 -11

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
1—16.67%5.56%—11.11%5.56%38.89%
211.11%—5.56%——5.56%22.22%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%38.89%22.22%—16.67%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 2.17 -0.78
SD 1.14 1.89 2.39
CV 0.82 0.87 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
111.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%—38.89%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%22.22%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total16.67%22.22%27.78%11.11%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 2.11 -0.17
SD 1.47 1.60 2.57
CV 0.76 0.76 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
1——11.11%—5.56%—16.67%
2———5.56%5.56%—11.11%
3——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
45.56%11.11%————16.67%
5+5.56%27.78%5.56%———38.89%
Total11.11%44.44%22.22%5.56%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 4.06 1.83 +2.22
SD 2.92 1.54 3.84
CV 0.72 0.84 —
Max 12 6 +11
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%——5.56%16.67%
15.56%22.22%——5.56%5.56%38.89%
25.56%—5.56%———11.11%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4————5.56%—5.56%
5+—5.56%5.56%11.11%——22.22%
Total16.67%33.33%16.67%11.11%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 2.39 -0.17
SD 2.07 2.81 3.54
CV 0.93 1.18 —
Max 6 12 +4
Min 0 0 -11

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%—11.11%—22.22%
15.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%38.89%
25.56%————5.56%11.11%
3———————
45.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total22.22%16.67%16.67%5.56%22.22%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 2.50 -0.72
SD 1.66 2.07 3.04
CV 0.94 0.83 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—22.22%
15.56%—11.11%11.11%11.11%—38.89%
25.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
3—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%27.78%22.22%16.67%22.22%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 2.11 -0.83
SD 0.96 1.37 1.86
CV 0.75 0.65 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
1—5.56%——5.56%5.56%16.67%
2—11.11%——5.56%5.56%22.22%
35.56%———5.56%—11.11%
411.11%16.67%————27.78%
5+——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
Total22.22%38.89%5.56%—22.22%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.72 2.06 +0.67
SD 1.84 2.07 2.87
CV 0.68 1.01 —
Max 7 7 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—5.56%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
15.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%—38.89%
211.11%—————11.11%
311.11%5.56%————16.67%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total38.89%16.67%22.22%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.50 -0.17
SD 1.24 1.69 2.41
CV 0.93 1.13 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
15.56%—5.56%——11.11%22.22%
2—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
3—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
4—11.11%5.56%——5.56%22.22%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total5.56%44.44%27.78%5.56%—16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.33 2.17 +0.17
SD 1.50 1.92 2.41
CV 0.64 0.88 —
Max 5 7 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.56%——5.56%
1—11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
2—11.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%—33.33%
3———5.56%—5.56%11.11%
4—5.56%—11.11%——16.67%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total—33.33%11.11%33.33%16.67%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 2.50 -0.22
SD 1.49 1.29 2.07
CV 0.65 0.52 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 1 -3

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Racing Santander 22 16.65 +5.35
2 Real Sociedad 22 17.86 +4.14
3 Barcelona 21 18.68 +2.32
4 Real Madrid 18 17.66 +0.34
5 Athletic Bilbao 22 22.56 -0.56

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Espanol 14 18.63 -4.63
2 Europa 13 15.73 -2.73
3 Alaves 14 16.49 -2.49
4 Real Union 16 16.95 -0.95
5 Arenas de Getxo 18 18.79 -0.79

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Real Sociedad 6 Dec 21 – Jan 25 1 in 987
2 Real Union 2 Mar 29 – Apr 5 1 in 32
3 Athletic Bilbao 5 Jan 11 – Feb 8 1 in 26
4 Racing Santander 3 Jan 11 – Jan 25 1 in 20
5 Barcelona 3 Feb 22 – Mar 8 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Europa 5 Jan 11 – Feb 8 1 in 62
2 Athletic Bilbao 2 Mar 15 – Mar 22 1 in 34
3 Barcelona 2 Feb 8 – Feb 15 1 in 15
4 Real Sociedad 2 Mar 8 – Mar 14 1 in 14
5 Arenas de Getxo 2 Dec 7 – Dec 14 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Real Sociedad 6 Dec 21 – Jan 25 1 in 57
2 Barcelona 7 Feb 22 – Apr 5 1 in 46
3 Arenas de Getxo 6 Jan 25 – Mar 1 1 in 27
4 Real Madrid 4 Jan 27 – Feb 15 1 in 17
5 Athletic Bilbao 5 Jan 11 – Feb 8 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Real Union 7 Jan 11 – Feb 15 1 in 78
2 Barcelona 5 Jan 18 – Feb 15 1 in 26
3 Real Sociedad 4 Feb 22 – Mar 14 1 in 21
4 Real Madrid 6 Jan 11 – Feb 8 1 in 13
5 Espanol 4 Mar 17 – Apr 5 1 in 11

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Athletic Bilbao53.64%19.56%9.98%6.27%4.12%2.93%1.79%0.90%0.53%0.28%
Racing Santander3.20%7.15%8.46%9.95%10.58%11.37%12.48%12.09%12.47%12.25%
Real Sociedad6.23%11.07%11.57%11.66%11.59%10.96%11.00%10.05%9.05%6.82%
Barcelona8.64%13.73%13.76%12.10%11.72%9.84%9.13%9.26%6.82%5.00%
Arenas de Getxo9.70%14.20%13.25%12.27%11.80%10.19%9.24%7.94%6.78%4.63%
Real Madrid4.50%9.21%11.15%11.90%10.68%11.78%10.78%11.13%10.23%8.64%
Real Union3.15%6.67%8.57%9.36%10.51%11.55%12.39%12.58%13.10%12.12%
Espanol7.38%11.45%12.40%12.46%12.03%11.42%10.43%8.63%7.81%5.99%
Alaves2.28%4.39%6.07%8.03%9.36%10.59%11.72%13.84%15.48%18.24%
Europa1.28%2.57%4.79%6.00%7.61%9.37%11.04%13.58%17.73%26.03%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+42.22%
Strong Edge
63.33%15.56%21.11%
Elo Value
Home Edge
131 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
0156.48400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+1.22 goals
Strong Home
-2+1.19+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.1
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
54%
Athletic Bilbao, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.53 * Some Luck: 2.53 to 3.8 * Lucky: 3.8 to 5.07 * Wild Swing: 5.07 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.88 * Close: 1.88 to 2.83 * Off: 2.83 to 3.77 * Way Off: 3.77 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.74 * A Surprise: 0.74 to 1.18 * Several Surprises: 1.18 to 1.63 * Many Surprises: 1.63 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.97 points
Some Luck
03.178
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.60
Pinpoint
02.365
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
96.53%
Racing Santander
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
9.20%
Espanol
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 1
As Expected
00.71

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.11
Balanced
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
0.85
Coin-Flip Parity
01.003
Interquartile Edge
56%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
83%
Strong Edge
50%80%100%
Close Games
Expected
41%
Frequent
0%40%100%
Blowouts
Expected
39%
Very Frequent
0%38%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.53
Highly Predictable
00.482
Matchup Imbalance
0.61
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.89
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.05
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Chalky
0%17%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
0.80
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.35
Overconfident
0.1566421.001.84336
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.073
Well Within Noise
00.1200.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Athletic Bilbao 99.72% 0.28%
Arenas de Getxo 95.37% 4.63%
Barcelona 95.00% 5.00%
Espanol 94.01% 5.99%
Real Sociedad 93.18% 6.82%
Real Madrid 91.36% 8.64%
Real Union 87.88% 12.12%
Racing Santander 87.75% 12.25%
Alaves 81.76% 18.24%
Europa 73.97% 26.03%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1930-12-07 Real Union L 1-2 1777 1717 72.9% 15.7% 11.3% -9.0 0
1930-12-07 @ Arenas de Getxo W 2-1 1717 1777 11.3% 15.7% 72.9% +9.1 2
1930-12-07 Athletic Bilbao W 6-3 1770 1861 60.1% 16.4% 23.5% +6.4 2
1930-12-07 @ Barcelona L 3-6 1861 1770 23.5% 16.4% 60.1% -6.4 0
1930-12-07 Europa W 2-1 1672 1683 67.7% 16.2% 16.1% +2.3 2
1930-12-07 @ Racing Santander L 1-2 1683 1672 16.1% 16.2% 67.7% -2.3 0
1930-12-07 Espanol W 2-0 1753 1781 66.3% 16.2% 17.5% +5.0 2
1930-12-07 @ Real Madrid L 0-2 1781 1753 17.5% 16.2% 66.3% -5.0 0
1930-12-07 Alaves D 2-2 1700 1708 67.9% 16.1% 15.9% -1.2 1
1930-12-07 @ Real Sociedad D 2-2 1708 1700 15.9% 16.1% 67.9% +1.3 1
1930-12-14 Arenas de Getxo W 3-2 1709 1768 63.4% 16.3% 20.3% +2.7 3
1930-12-14 @ Alaves L 2-3 1768 1709 20.3% 16.3% 63.4% -2.7 0
1930-12-14 Real Sociedad W 6-1 1855 1698 78.1% 15.0% 7.0% +4.0 2
1930-12-14 @ Athletic Bilbao L 1-6 1698 1855 7.0% 15.0% 78.1% -4.0 1
1930-12-14 Racing Santander W 4-1 1776 1674 75.3% 15.4% 9.2% +3.3 2
1930-12-14 @ Espanol L 1-4 1674 1776 9.2% 15.4% 75.3% -3.3 2
1930-12-14 Barcelona D 2-2 1681 1776 59.6% 16.4% 23.9% -0.8 1
1930-12-14 @ Europa D 2-2 1776 1681 23.9% 16.4% 59.6% +0.8 3
1930-12-21 Espanol W 4-1 1712 1779 62.5% 16.4% 21.1% +7.2 5
1930-12-21 @ Alaves L 1-4 1779 1712 21.1% 16.4% 62.5% -7.2 2
1930-12-21 Real Madrid W 4-1 1766 1758 69.2% 16.1% 14.8% +5.2 2
1930-12-21 @ Arenas de Getxo L 1-4 1758 1766 14.8% 16.1% 69.2% -5.2 2
1930-12-21 Real Union W 2-1 1680 1726 64.6% 16.3% 19.1% +2.7 3
1930-12-21 @ Europa L 1-2 1726 1680 19.1% 16.3% 64.6% -2.7 2
1930-12-21 Athletic Bilbao W 4-1 1671 1859 48.4% 16.5% 35.1% +11.3 4
1930-12-21 @ Racing Santander L 1-4 1859 1671 35.1% 16.5% 48.4% -11.3 2
1930-12-21 Barcelona W 4-1 1694 1777 61.0% 16.4% 22.6% +7.7 3
1930-12-21 @ Real Sociedad L 1-4 1777 1694 22.6% 16.4% 61.0% -7.7 3
1930-12-25 Europa W 3-1 1753 1683 73.6% 15.7% 10.8% +2.7 4
1930-12-25 @ Real Madrid L 1-3 1683 1753 10.8% 15.7% 73.6% -2.7 3
1930-12-28 Alaves W 7-1 1847 1719 76.8% 15.2% 8.0% +5.4 4
1930-12-28 @ Athletic Bilbao L 1-7 1719 1847 8.0% 15.2% 76.8% -5.4 5
1930-12-28 Racing Santander D 1-1 1769 1682 74.5% 15.6% 9.9% -2.1 4
1930-12-28 @ Barcelona D 1-1 1682 1769 9.9% 15.6% 74.5% +2.1 5
1930-12-28 Arenas de Getxo W 5-0 1772 1771 68.7% 16.1% 15.2% +10.2 4
1930-12-28 @ Espanol L 0-5 1771 1772 15.2% 16.1% 68.7% -10.2 2
1930-12-28 Real Sociedad L 2-4 1723 1702 70.2% 16.0% 13.8% -13.5 2
1930-12-28 @ Real Union W 4-2 1702 1723 13.8% 16.0% 70.2% +13.5 5
1931-01-04 Barcelona W 5-0 1760 1767 68.1% 16.1% 15.8% +10.6 4
1931-01-04 @ Arenas de Getxo L 0-5 1767 1760 15.8% 16.1% 68.1% -10.6 4
1931-01-04 Athletic Bilbao W 2-1 1680 1853 50.3% 16.5% 33.2% +4.4 5
1931-01-04 @ Europa L 1-2 1853 1680 33.2% 16.5% 50.3% -4.4 4
1931-01-04 Real Sociedad L 2-5 1685 1716 66.0% 16.2% 17.8% -17.3 5
1931-01-04 @ Racing Santander W 5-2 1716 1685 17.8% 16.2% 66.0% +17.3 7
1931-01-04 Alaves W 1-0 1756 1714 71.7% 15.9% 12.4% +1.9 6
1931-01-04 @ Real Madrid L 0-1 1714 1756 12.4% 15.9% 71.7% -1.9 5
1931-01-04 Espanol W 6-1 1710 1782 62.0% 16.4% 21.6% +11.7 4
1931-01-04 @ Real Union L 1-6 1782 1710 21.6% 16.4% 62.0% -11.7 4
1931-01-11 Real Union W 3-1 1712 1721 67.8% 16.1% 16.0% +4.0 7
1931-01-11 @ Alaves L 1-3 1721 1712 16.0% 16.1% 67.8% -4.0 4
1931-01-11 Arenas de Getxo W 5-2 1848 1771 74.0% 15.6% 10.4% +3.2 6
1931-01-11 @ Athletic Bilbao L 2-5 1771 1848 10.4% 15.6% 74.0% -3.2 4
1931-01-11 Espanol W 6-2 1756 1770 67.5% 16.2% 16.4% +6.3 6
1931-01-11 @ Barcelona L 2-6 1770 1756 16.4% 16.2% 67.5% -6.3 4
1931-01-11 Real Madrid W 3-0 1667 1758 60.2% 16.4% 23.4% +9.4 7
1931-01-11 @ Racing Santander L 0-3 1758 1667 23.4% 16.4% 60.2% -9.4 6
1931-01-11 Europa W 3-1 1733 1684 72.2% 15.8% 12.0% +3.0 9
1931-01-11 @ Real Sociedad L 1-3 1684 1733 12.0% 15.8% 72.2% -3.0 5
1931-01-18 Racing Santander L 2-5 1716 1677 71.5% 15.9% 12.6% -18.8 7
1931-01-18 @ Alaves W 5-2 1677 1716 12.6% 15.9% 71.5% +18.8 9
1931-01-18 Real Sociedad L 1-3 1768 1736 71.0% 15.9% 13.1% -15.3 4
1931-01-18 @ Arenas de Getxo W 3-1 1736 1768 13.1% 15.9% 71.0% +15.3 11
1931-01-18 Europa W 4-0 1764 1681 74.3% 15.6% 10.1% +5.6 6
1931-01-18 @ Espanol L 0-4 1681 1764 10.1% 15.6% 74.3% -5.6 5
1931-01-18 Athletic Bilbao L 0-6 1748 1851 58.8% 16.4% 24.8% -40.5 6
1931-01-18 @ Real Madrid W 6-0 1851 1748 24.8% 16.4% 58.8% +40.5 8
1931-01-18 Barcelona D 1-1 1717 1763 64.7% 16.3% 19.0% -1.5 5
1931-01-18 @ Real Union D 1-1 1763 1717 19.0% 16.3% 64.7% +1.5 7
1931-01-25 Espanol W 5-1 1892 1770 76.4% 15.3% 8.3% +3.8 10
1931-01-25 @ Athletic Bilbao L 1-5 1770 1892 8.3% 15.3% 76.4% -3.8 6
1931-01-25 Alaves D 1-1 1764 1697 73.4% 15.7% 11.0% -2.1 8
1931-01-25 @ Barcelona D 1-1 1697 1764 11.0% 15.7% 73.4% +2.0 8
1931-01-25 Arenas de Getxo L 1-4 1676 1753 61.6% 16.4% 22.0% -18.7 5
1931-01-25 @ Europa W 4-1 1753 1676 22.0% 16.4% 61.6% +18.7 6
1931-01-25 Real Union W 4-1 1696 1716 66.9% 16.2% 16.9% +5.9 11
1931-01-25 @ Racing Santander L 1-4 1716 1696 16.9% 16.2% 66.9% -5.9 5
1931-01-25 Real Madrid W 2-1 1751 1708 71.8% 15.8% 12.4% +1.8 13
1931-01-25 @ Real Sociedad L 1-2 1708 1751 12.4% 15.8% 71.8% -1.8 6
1931-01-27 Real Madrid D 1-1 1710 1706 68.9% 16.1% 15.0% -1.8 6
1931-01-27 @ Real Union D 1-1 1706 1710 15.0% 16.1% 68.9% +1.7 7
1931-02-01 Europa W 2-0 1699 1657 71.7% 15.9% 12.4% +3.6 10
1931-02-01 @ Alaves L 0-2 1657 1699 12.4% 15.9% 71.7% -3.6 5
1931-02-01 Racing Santander W 4-2 1771 1701 73.5% 15.7% 10.8% +2.5 8
1931-02-01 @ Arenas de Getxo L 2-4 1701 1771 10.8% 15.7% 73.5% -2.5 11
1931-02-01 Real Sociedad W 1-0 1766 1753 69.6% 16.0% 14.4% +2.2 8
1931-02-01 @ Espanol L 0-1 1753 1766 14.4% 16.0% 69.6% -2.2 13
1931-02-01 Barcelona D 0-0 1708 1762 63.8% 16.3% 19.8% -1.6 8
1931-02-01 @ Real Madrid D 0-0 1762 1708 19.8% 16.3% 63.8% +1.6 9
1931-02-01 Athletic Bilbao L 2-3 1708 1896 48.4% 16.5% 35.1% -5.8 6
1931-02-01 @ Real Union W 3-2 1896 1708 35.1% 16.5% 48.4% +5.8 12
1931-02-08 Real Sociedad L 1-2 1703 1751 64.4% 16.3% 19.3% -8.0 10
1931-02-08 @ Alaves W 2-1 1751 1703 19.3% 16.3% 64.4% +8.0 15
1931-02-08 Barcelona W 12-1 1902 1764 77.2% 15.1% 7.6% +9.1 14
1931-02-08 @ Athletic Bilbao L 1-12 1764 1902 7.6% 15.1% 77.2% -9.1 9
1931-02-08 Real Madrid D 1-1 1768 1706 73.0% 15.7% 11.3% -2.0 9
1931-02-08 @ Espanol D 1-1 1706 1768 11.3% 15.7% 73.0% +2.0 9
1931-02-08 Racing Santander L 1-2 1653 1699 64.6% 16.3% 19.1% -8.0 5
1931-02-08 @ Europa W 2-1 1699 1653 19.1% 16.3% 64.6% +8.0 13
1931-02-08 Arenas de Getxo D 2-2 1703 1774 62.2% 16.4% 21.4% -1.0 7
1931-02-08 @ Real Union D 2-2 1774 1703 21.4% 16.4% 62.2% +1.0 9
1931-02-15 Alaves D 1-1 1775 1695 74.1% 15.6% 10.3% -2.1 10
1931-02-15 @ Arenas de Getxo D 1-1 1695 1775 10.3% 15.6% 74.1% +2.1 11
1931-02-15 Europa L 0-2 1755 1645 75.8% 15.4% 8.8% -18.8 9
1931-02-15 @ Barcelona W 2-0 1645 1755 8.8% 15.4% 75.8% +18.8 7
1931-02-15 Espanol W 4-0 1707 1766 63.4% 16.3% 20.3% +10.8 15
1931-02-15 @ Racing Santander L 0-4 1766 1707 20.3% 16.3% 63.4% -10.8 9
1931-02-15 Real Union W 3-0 1708 1702 69.1% 16.1% 14.8% +6.2 11
1931-02-15 @ Real Madrid L 0-3 1702 1708 14.8% 16.1% 69.1% -6.2 7
1931-02-15 Athletic Bilbao W 1-0 1759 1911 53.0% 16.5% 30.5% +4.3 17
1931-02-15 @ Real Sociedad L 0-1 1911 1759 30.5% 16.5% 53.0% -4.4 14
1931-02-22 Racing Santander W 7-1 1906 1718 79.5% 14.7% 5.9% +4.0 16
1931-02-22 @ Athletic Bilbao L 1-7 1718 1906 5.9% 14.7% 79.5% -3.9 15
1931-02-22 Real Sociedad W 5-1 1736 1763 66.3% 16.2% 17.5% +7.9 11
1931-02-22 @ Barcelona L 1-5 1763 1736 17.5% 16.2% 66.3% -7.9 17
1931-02-22 Alaves W 2-0 1755 1697 72.8% 15.8% 11.5% +3.3 11
1931-02-22 @ Espanol L 0-2 1697 1755 11.5% 15.8% 72.8% -3.3 11
1931-02-22 Arenas de Getxo L 1-2 1715 1773 63.5% 16.3% 20.2% -7.9 11
1931-02-22 @ Real Madrid W 2-1 1773 1715 20.2% 16.3% 63.5% +7.9 12
1931-02-22 Europa W 4-3 1695 1664 71.0% 15.9% 13.1% +1.8 9
1931-02-22 @ Real Union L 3-4 1664 1695 13.1% 15.9% 71.0% -1.8 7
1931-03-01 Athletic Bilbao L 1-4 1693 1910 44.3% 16.4% 39.2% -13.8 11
1931-03-01 @ Alaves W 4-1 1910 1693 39.2% 16.4% 44.3% +13.8 18
1931-03-01 Espanol W 1-0 1780 1759 70.3% 16.0% 13.8% +2.1 14
1931-03-01 @ Arenas de Getxo L 0-1 1759 1780 13.8% 16.0% 70.3% -2.1 11
1931-03-01 Real Madrid L 0-3 1662 1707 64.8% 16.3% 18.9% -23.3 7
1931-03-01 @ Europa W 3-0 1707 1662 18.9% 16.3% 64.8% +23.3 13
1931-03-01 Barcelona L 0-1 1714 1744 66.1% 16.2% 17.7% -8.7 15
1931-03-01 @ Racing Santander W 1-0 1744 1714 17.7% 16.2% 66.1% +8.7 13
1931-03-01 Real Union D 3-3 1755 1697 72.8% 15.8% 11.5% -1.2 18
1931-03-01 @ Real Sociedad D 3-3 1697 1755 11.5% 15.8% 72.8% +1.2 10
1931-03-08 Real Madrid W 2-0 1680 1730 64.2% 16.3% 19.5% +5.5 13
1931-03-08 @ Alaves L 0-2 1730 1680 19.5% 16.3% 64.2% -5.5 13
1931-03-08 Europa W 4-1 1924 1639 82.8% 13.6% 3.5% +1.3 20
1931-03-08 @ Athletic Bilbao L 1-4 1639 1924 3.5% 13.6% 82.8% -1.2 7
1931-03-08 Arenas de Getxo W 2-0 1752 1783 66.1% 16.2% 17.7% +5.1 15
1931-03-08 @ Barcelona L 0-2 1783 1752 17.7% 16.2% 66.1% -5.0 14
1931-03-08 Real Union W 4-2 1757 1698 72.8% 15.8% 11.5% +2.6 13
1931-03-08 @ Espanol L 2-4 1698 1757 11.5% 15.8% 72.8% -2.6 10
1931-03-08 Racing Santander L 4-7 1754 1705 72.2% 15.8% 12.0% -16.8 18
1931-03-08 @ Real Sociedad W 7-4 1705 1754 12.0% 15.8% 72.2% +16.8 17
1931-03-14 Real Sociedad W 2-1 1638 1737 59.2% 16.4% 24.4% +3.4 9
1931-03-14 @ Europa L 1-2 1737 1638 24.4% 16.4% 59.2% -3.4 18
1931-03-15 Athletic Bilbao W 3-2 1778 1925 53.5% 16.5% 30.0% +3.8 16
1931-03-15 @ Arenas de Getxo L 2-3 1925 1778 30.0% 16.5% 53.5% -3.8 20
1931-03-15 Racing Santander D 0-0 1724 1722 68.8% 16.1% 15.1% -1.9 14
1931-03-15 @ Real Madrid D 0-0 1722 1724 15.1% 16.1% 68.8% +2.0 18
1931-03-15 Alaves W 4-1 1696 1685 69.4% 16.0% 14.5% +5.1 12
1931-03-15 @ Real Union L 1-4 1685 1696 14.5% 16.0% 69.4% -5.1 13
1931-03-17 Barcelona D 4-4 1759 1757 68.7% 16.1% 15.2% -0.9 14
1931-03-17 @ Espanol D 4-4 1757 1759 15.2% 16.1% 68.7% +0.9 16
1931-03-22 Real Madrid L 2-4 1921 1723 79.9% 14.6% 5.6% -15.3 20
1931-03-22 @ Athletic Bilbao W 4-2 1723 1921 5.6% 14.6% 79.9% +15.3 16
1931-03-22 Real Union W 5-3 1758 1701 72.7% 15.8% 11.5% +2.5 18
1931-03-22 @ Barcelona L 3-5 1701 1758 11.5% 15.8% 72.7% -2.5 12
1931-03-22 Espanol W 3-1 1641 1758 57.2% 16.5% 26.3% +6.2 11
1931-03-22 @ Europa L 1-3 1758 1641 26.3% 16.5% 57.2% -6.2 14
1931-03-22 Alaves W 4-0 1724 1680 71.8% 15.8% 12.3% +6.8 20
1931-03-22 @ Racing Santander L 0-4 1680 1724 12.3% 15.8% 71.8% -6.8 13
1931-03-22 Arenas de Getxo W 4-1 1734 1781 64.5% 16.3% 19.2% +6.7 20
1931-03-22 @ Real Sociedad L 1-4 1781 1734 19.2% 16.3% 64.5% -6.7 16
1931-03-29 Barcelona D 1-1 1673 1761 60.5% 16.4% 23.1% -1.2 14
1931-03-29 @ Alaves D 1-1 1761 1673 23.1% 16.4% 60.5% +1.2 19
1931-03-29 Europa W 1-0 1775 1647 76.7% 15.2% 8.1% +1.3 18
1931-03-29 @ Arenas de Getxo L 0-1 1647 1775 8.1% 15.2% 76.7% -1.2 11
1931-03-29 Athletic Bilbao L 0-4 1752 1906 52.7% 16.5% 30.8% -24.9 14
1931-03-29 @ Espanol W 4-0 1906 1752 30.8% 16.5% 52.7% +24.9 22
1931-03-29 Real Sociedad W 2-0 1738 1741 68.4% 16.1% 15.5% +4.5 18
1931-03-29 @ Real Madrid L 0-2 1741 1738 15.5% 16.1% 68.4% -4.5 20
1931-03-29 Racing Santander W 4-3 1698 1731 65.9% 16.2% 17.9% +2.3 14
1931-03-29 @ Real Union L 3-4 1731 1698 17.9% 16.2% 65.9% -2.4 20
1931-04-05 Real Union L 1-2 1931 1701 81.0% 14.2% 4.7% -10.0 22
1931-04-05 @ Athletic Bilbao W 2-1 1701 1931 4.7% 14.2% 81.0% +10.0 16
1931-04-05 Real Madrid W 3-1 1762 1742 70.1% 16.0% 13.9% +3.5 21
1931-04-05 @ Barcelona L 1-3 1742 1762 13.9% 16.0% 70.1% -3.5 18
1931-04-05 Alaves W 1-0 1646 1672 66.4% 16.2% 17.3% +2.6 13
1931-04-05 @ Europa L 0-1 1672 1646 17.3% 16.2% 66.4% -2.6 14
1931-04-05 Arenas de Getxo W 4-1 1728 1776 64.5% 16.3% 19.2% +6.7 22
1931-04-05 @ Racing Santander L 1-4 1776 1728 19.2% 16.3% 64.5% -6.7 18
1931-04-05 Espanol W 2-1 1736 1727 69.3% 16.1% 14.6% +2.1 22
1931-04-05 @ Real Sociedad L 1-2 1727 1736 14.6% 16.1% 69.3% -2.1 14

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1931-04-05 4.72% Real Union 1701 2 @ Athletic Bilbao 1931 1
2 1931-03-22 5.57% Real Madrid 1723 4 @ Athletic Bilbao 1921 2
3 1931-02-15 8.85% Europa 1645 2 @ Barcelona 1755 0
4 1930-12-07 11.35% Real Union 1717 2 @ Arenas de Getxo 1777 1
5 1931-03-08 12.03% Racing Santander 1705 7 @ Real Sociedad 1754 4
6 1931-01-18 12.63% Racing Santander 1677 5 @ Alaves 1716 2
7 1931-01-18 13.08% Real Sociedad 1736 3 @ Arenas de Getxo 1768 1
8 1930-12-28 13.80% Real Sociedad 1702 4 @ Real Union 1723 2
9 1931-03-01 17.67% Barcelona 1744 1 @ Racing Santander 1714 0
10 1931-01-04 17.77% Real Sociedad 1716 5 @ Racing Santander 1685 2
11 1931-03-01 18.94% Real Madrid 1707 3 @ Europa 1662 0
12 1931-02-08 19.06% Racing Santander 1699 2 @ Europa 1653 1
13 1931-02-08 19.28% Real Sociedad 1751 2 @ Alaves 1703 1
14 1931-02-22 20.19% Arenas de Getxo 1773 2 @ Real Madrid 1715 1
15 1931-01-25 22.03% Arenas de Getxo 1753 4 @ Europa 1676 1
16 1931-01-18 24.75% Athletic Bilbao 1851 6 @ Real Madrid 1748 0
17 1931-03-29 30.79% Athletic Bilbao 1906 4 @ Espanol 1752 0
18 1931-02-01 35.15% Athletic Bilbao 1896 3 @ Real Union 1708 2
19 1931-03-01 39.24% Athletic Bilbao 1910 4 @ Alaves 1693 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1931-01-18 40.50 Athletic Bilbao 6 1851 24.75% @ Real Madrid 0 1748 58.80% 16.45%
2 1931-03-29 24.94 Athletic Bilbao 4 1906 30.79% @ Espanol 0 1752 52.71% 16.50%
3 1931-03-01 23.30 Real Madrid 3 1707 18.94% @ Europa 0 1662 64.77% 16.29%
4 1931-01-18 18.82 Racing Santander 5 1677 12.63% @ Alaves 2 1716 71.49% 15.88%
5 1931-02-15 18.82 Europa 2 1645 8.85% @ Barcelona 0 1755 75.78% 15.37%
6 1931-01-25 18.68 Arenas de Getxo 4 1753 22.03% @ Europa 1 1676 61.57% 16.39%
7 1931-01-04 17.34 Real Sociedad 5 1716 17.77% @ Racing Santander 2 1685 65.99% 16.24%
8 1931-03-08 16.75 Racing Santander 7 1705 12.03% @ Real Sociedad 4 1754 72.16% 15.81%
9 1931-03-22 15.32 Real Madrid 4 1723 5.57% @ Athletic Bilbao 2 1921 79.88% 14.56%
10 1931-01-18 15.26 Real Sociedad 3 1736 13.08% @ Arenas de Getxo 1 1768 71.00% 15.92%
11 1931-03-01 13.78 Athletic Bilbao 4 1910 39.24% @ Alaves 1 1693 44.32% 16.44%
12 1930-12-28 13.49 Real Sociedad 4 1702 13.80% @ Real Union 2 1723 70.21% 15.98%
13 1931-01-04 11.69 @ Real Union 6 1710 62.04% Espanol 1 1782 21.58% 16.38%
14 1930-12-21 11.34 @ Racing Santander 4 1671 48.38% Athletic Bilbao 1 1859 35.14% 16.48%
15 1931-02-15 10.84 @ Racing Santander 4 1707 63.37% Espanol 0 1766 20.29% 16.34%
16 1931-01-04 10.61 @ Arenas de Getxo 5 1760 68.06% Barcelona 0 1767 15.81% 16.13%
17 1930-12-28 10.24 @ Espanol 5 1772 68.69% Arenas de Getxo 0 1771 15.22% 16.09%
18 1931-04-05 10.02 Real Union 2 1701 4.72% @ Athletic Bilbao 1 1931 81.04% 14.23%
19 1931-01-11 9.44 @ Racing Santander 3 1667 60.15% Real Madrid 0 1758 23.42% 16.43%
20 1931-02-08 9.12 @ Athletic Bilbao 12 1902 77.22% Barcelona 1 1764 7.64% 15.13%
21 1930-12-07 9.05 Real Union 2 1717 11.35% @ Arenas de Getxo 1 1777 72.92% 15.74%
22 1931-03-01 8.69 Barcelona 1 1744 17.67% @ Racing Santander 0 1714 66.10% 16.23%
23 1931-02-08 8.01 Racing Santander 2 1699 19.06% @ Europa 1 1653 64.64% 16.30%
24 1931-02-08 7.98 Real Sociedad 2 1751 19.28% @ Alaves 1 1703 64.41% 16.30%
25 1931-02-22 7.87 @ Barcelona 5 1736 66.31% Real Sociedad 1 1763 17.47% 16.22%