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1929-30 La Liga Season

90 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Athletic Bilbao

30 points · 1st Title

Relegated

Atletico Madrid

12 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Athletic Bilbao

8.01 points above expected

30 points · 21.99 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Real Sociedad

3.81 points below expected

14 points · 17.81 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Athletic Bilbao Champion 18 12 6 0 30 63 28 +35 21.99 +8.01
2 Barcelona 18 11 1 6 23 46 36 +10 21.21 +1.79
3 Arenas de Getxo 18 9 2 7 20 51 40 +11 18.47 +1.53
4 Espanol 18 9 2 7 20 40 33 +7 18.68 +1.32
5 Real Madrid 18 7 3 8 17 45 42 +3 18.86 -1.86
6 Real Union 18 6 5 7 17 48 52 -4 17.20 -0.20
7 Real Sociedad 18 5 4 9 14 34 37 -3 17.81 -3.81
8 Racing Santander 18 7 0 11 14 32 58 -26 14.73 -0.73
9 Europa 18 6 1 11 13 29 44 -15 15.38 -2.38
10 Atletico Madrid Relegated 18 5 2 11 12 32 50 -18 15.68 -3.68

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The full Promotion / Relegation tab has matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Racing Santander 3
Sevilla 2

Leg 1: Racing Santander 2-0 Sevilla

Leg 2: Sevilla 2-1 Racing Santander

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Athletic Bilbao 1945 30 21.99 +8.01 99.8% 9 17 20 22 24 27 34
Espanol 1759 20 18.68 +1.32 71.5% 7 13 17 19 21 24 31
Arenas de Getxo 1752 20 18.47 +1.53 74.5% 5 13 16 18 21 24 30
Barcelona 1736 23 21.21 +1.79 76.2% 8 16 19 21 23 26 33
Real Madrid 1699 17 18.86 -1.86 33.5% 8 14 17 19 21 24 32
Real Union 1623 17 17.20 -0.20 54.0% 6 12 15 17 19 22 28
Real Sociedad 1572 14 17.81 -3.81 14.3% 6 13 16 18 20 23 31
Atletico Madrid 1561 12 15.68 -3.68 16.6% 3 10 13 16 18 21 28
Europa 1553 13 15.38 -2.38 28.2% 4 10 13 15 18 21 28
Racing Santander 1547 14 14.73 -0.73 47.7% 2 9 12 15 17 20 26

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ADG AB AM BAR ESP EUR RS RM RS RU
Arenas de Getxo —
0-1-1
2.38
2-0-0
3.20
0-0-2
2.61
1-0-1
2.74
1-0-1
3.61
2-0-0
3.09
1-0-1
2.91
1-1-0
2.95
1-0-1
2.87
Athletic Bilbao
1-1-0
3.32
 —
2-0-0
4.28
1-1-0
2.89
1-1-0
3.28
1-1-0
3.33
2-0-0
4.51
2-0-0
2.79
1-1-0
3.28
1-1-0
3.93
Atletico Madrid
0-0-2
2.50
0-0-2
1.42
 —
1-0-1
1.83
1-0-1
2.43
1-0-1
2.89
1-0-1
3.19
1-0-1
2.49
0-1-1
2.71
0-1-1
2.72
Barcelona
2-0-0
3.08
0-1-1
2.81
1-0-1
3.87
 —
1-0-1
3.43
2-0-0
3.61
1-0-1
3.98
0-0-2
3.35
2-0-0
2.89
2-0-0
3.42
Espanol
1-0-1
2.96
0-1-1
2.42
1-0-1
3.26
1-0-1
2.26
 —
1-0-1
3.80
1-0-1
3.20
2-0-0
2.66
1-0-1
3.18
1-1-0
2.87
Europa
1-0-1
2.08
0-1-1
2.37
1-0-1
2.81
0-0-2
2.08
1-0-1
1.89
 —
1-0-1
2.88
0-0-2
2.65
1-0-1
2.51
1-0-1
2.43
Racing Santander
0-0-2
2.61
0-0-2
1.19
1-0-1
2.51
1-0-1
1.72
1-0-1
2.50
1-0-1
2.82
 —
1-0-1
2.35
1-0-1
2.47
1-0-1
2.48
Real Madrid
1-0-1
2.78
0-0-2
2.91
1-0-1
3.21
2-0-0
2.35
0-0-2
3.03
2-0-0
3.05
1-0-1
3.34
 —
0-1-1
3.12
0-2-0
3.15
Real Sociedad
0-1-1
2.75
0-1-1
2.41
1-1-0
2.98
0-0-2
2.81
1-0-1
2.52
1-0-1
3.18
1-0-1
3.22
1-1-0
2.58
 —
0-0-2
2.91
Real Union
1-0-1
2.83
0-1-1
1.77
1-1-0
2.98
0-0-2
2.28
0-1-1
2.82
1-0-1
3.27
1-0-1
3.22
0-2-0
2.54
2-0-0
2.79
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.81 +4.6
Allowed 0.53 -4.3
Differential 0.87 +2.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—2.22%3.89%2.22%1.67%3.33%13.33%
12.22%4.44%5.56%4.44%1.67%3.89%22.22%
23.89%5.56%5.56%5.00%2.22%3.33%25.56%
32.22%4.44%5.00%3.33%1.67%1.11%17.78%
41.67%1.67%2.22%1.67%1.11%0.56%8.89%
5+3.33%3.89%3.33%1.11%0.56%—12.22%
Total13.33%22.22%25.56%17.78%8.89%12.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.33 2.33 +0.00
SD 1.76 1.76 2.82
CV 0.75 0.75 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
1———11.11%——11.11%
25.56%11.11%—11.11%—11.11%38.89%
3—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
4————5.56%—5.56%
5+—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
Total5.56%38.89%11.11%27.78%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.83 2.22 +0.61
SD 1.76 1.48 2.45
CV 0.62 0.66 —
Max 7 5 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—11.11%————11.11%
2—5.56%16.67%———22.22%
35.56%—11.11%5.56%——22.22%
45.56%——11.11%——16.67%
5+5.56%11.11%11.11%———27.78%
Total16.67%27.78%38.89%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.50 1.56 +1.94
SD 1.76 0.98 2.13
CV 0.50 0.63 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 1 0 +0

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
1—5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%27.78%
25.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%5.56%27.78%
3—5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—22.22%
4———————
5+———5.56%——5.56%
Total5.56%22.22%22.22%22.22%16.67%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 2.78 -1.00
SD 1.31 1.96 2.25
CV 0.74 0.70 —
Max 5 8 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————5.56%—5.56%
1—5.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%22.22%
2—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
311.11%16.67%——5.56%—33.33%
4——11.11%———11.11%
5+5.56%———5.56%—11.11%
Total16.67%33.33%16.67%5.56%22.22%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.56 2.00 +0.56
SD 1.42 1.61 2.48
CV 0.56 0.80 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%11.11%——5.56%22.22%
111.11%—5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
35.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
45.56%—5.56%——5.56%16.67%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%27.78%27.78%5.56%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 1.83 +0.39
SD 2.05 1.72 2.89
CV 0.92 0.94 —
Max 8 6 +7
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%11.11%—5.56%27.78%
1——22.22%——5.56%27.78%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
3——11.11%——5.56%16.67%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total11.11%11.11%44.44%16.67%—16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 2.44 -0.83
SD 1.50 1.72 2.57
CV 0.93 0.70 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.56%5.56%22.22%33.33%
1———5.56%—5.56%11.11%
211.11%5.56%—5.56%—5.56%27.78%
3——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total16.67%11.11%11.11%16.67%5.56%38.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 3.22 -1.44
SD 1.73 2.26 3.60
CV 0.98 0.70 —
Max 6 7 +6
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
1—5.56%11.11%——11.11%27.78%
2—5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
3———————
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+5.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
Total5.56%33.33%33.33%5.56%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 2.33 +0.17
SD 1.98 1.91 3.40
CV 0.79 0.82 —
Max 6 8 +6
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
15.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%—5.56%38.89%
211.11%—5.56%16.67%——33.33%
3———————
45.56%———5.56%—11.11%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total27.78%11.11%16.67%33.33%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 2.06 -0.17
SD 1.68 1.83 2.81
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
15.56%5.56%—11.11%——22.22%
2——11.11%—11.11%11.11%33.33%
3——16.67%11.11%5.56%—33.33%
4———————
5+——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
Total5.56%5.56%33.33%27.78%16.67%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.67 2.89 -0.22
SD 1.78 1.57 2.41
CV 0.67 0.54 —
Max 8 7 +6
Min 1 0 -5

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Athletic Bilbao 30 21.99 +8.01
2 Barcelona 23 21.21 +1.79
3 Arenas de Getxo 20 18.47 +1.53
4 Espanol 20 18.68 +1.32
5 Real Union 17 17.20 -0.20

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Real Sociedad 14 17.81 -3.81
2 Atletico Madrid 12 15.68 -3.68
3 Europa 13 15.38 -2.38
4 Real Madrid 17 18.86 -1.86
5 Racing Santander 14 14.73 -0.73

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Real Madrid 4 Jan 5 – Jan 26 1 in 146
2 Europa 3 Dec 22 – Jan 9 1 in 80
3 Athletic Bilbao 7 Jan 19 – Mar 2 1 in 73
4 Real Union 3 Jan 12 – Jan 26 1 in 62
5 Barcelona 6 Dec 1 – Jan 5 1 in 44

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Real Sociedad 3 Feb 2 – Feb 16 1 in 37
2 Europa 6 Feb 9 – Mar 16 1 in 35
3 Barcelona 2 Jan 19 – Jan 26 1 in 18
4 Real Madrid 3 Dec 15 – Dec 29 1 in 14
5 Atletico Madrid 3 Jan 19 – Feb 2 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Athletic Bilbao 18 Dec 1 – Mar 30 1 in 4,411
2 Real Madrid 4 Jan 5 – Jan 26 1 in 19
3 Espanol 4 Dec 8 – Dec 29 1 in 16
4 Real Union 4 Dec 1 – Dec 22 1 in 16
5 Europa 3 Dec 22 – Jan 9 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Atletico Madrid 7 Dec 22 – Feb 2 1 in 53
2 Real Sociedad 4 Dec 29 – Jan 19 1 in 27
3 Barcelona 3 Jan 12 – Jan 26 1 in 25
4 Real Madrid 5 Dec 1 – Dec 29 1 in 20
5 Real Union 5 Dec 8 – Jan 5 1 in 12

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Athletic Bilbao41.70%22.58%12.87%8.66%5.74%3.46%2.42%1.58%0.69%0.30%
Barcelona25.51%23.59%16.65%11.35%8.01%6.11%3.93%2.69%1.52%0.64%
Arenas de Getxo6.78%11.80%14.14%14.36%13.23%11.71%11.00%7.99%5.64%3.35%
Espanol8.04%11.90%14.06%13.54%13.62%11.56%10.08%8.31%5.74%3.15%
Real Madrid8.23%11.66%13.93%14.37%13.46%12.32%10.28%7.62%5.51%2.62%
Real Union2.77%5.63%7.88%10.25%11.88%14.31%14.38%13.87%11.67%7.36%
Real Sociedad4.01%7.00%10.03%12.41%13.43%13.12%13.32%11.79%9.03%5.86%
Racing Santander0.73%1.55%2.61%3.93%5.38%7.57%9.88%14.11%20.94%33.30%
Europa0.99%1.96%3.53%5.38%7.15%9.94%12.33%16.32%20.11%22.29%
Atletico Madrid1.24%2.33%4.30%5.75%8.10%9.90%12.38%15.72%19.15%21.13%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+41.11%
Strong Edge
63.33%14.44%22.22%
Elo Value
Home Edge
129 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
0151.81400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+1.40 goals
Strong Home
-2+1.18+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.9
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
42%
Athletic Bilbao, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.39/gm
Tight Race
00.120.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.54 * Some Luck: 2.54 to 3.81 * Lucky: 3.81 to 5.08 * Wild Swing: 5.08 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.62 * Close: 1.62 to 2.43 * Off: 2.43 to 3.25 * Way Off: 3.25 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.67 * A Surprise: 0.67 to 1.07 * Several Surprises: 1.07 to 1.47 * Many Surprises: 1.47 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.30 points
Some Luck
03.188
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
02.035
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.75%
Athletic Bilbao
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
14.26%
Real Sociedad
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 1
A Surprise
00.71

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.30
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
74%
Clear Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
91%
Strong Edge
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
44%
Frequent
0%40%100%
Blowouts
Expected
33%
Very Frequent
0%38%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.50
Highly Predictable
00.482
Matchup Imbalance
0.59
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.11
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.64
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
19%
Chalky
0%17%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
As Expected
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.37
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.91
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.097
Well Within Noise
00.1390.4

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Athletic Bilbao 99.70% 0.30%
Barcelona 99.36% 0.64%
Real Madrid 97.38% 2.62%
Espanol 96.85% 3.15%
Arenas de Getxo 96.65% 3.35%
Real Sociedad 94.14% 5.86%
Real Union 92.64% 7.36%
Atletico Madrid 78.87% 21.13%
Europa 77.71% 22.29%
Racing Santander 66.70% 33.30%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1929-12-01 Real Madrid W 2-1 1696 1712 67.3% 15.2% 17.4% +8.2 2
1929-12-01 @ Athletic Bilbao L 1-2 1712 1696 17.4% 15.2% 67.3% -8.2 0
1929-12-01 Europa W 5-3 1661 1658 68.9% 15.2% 15.9% +11.1 2
1929-12-01 @ Atletico Madrid L 3-5 1658 1661 15.9% 15.2% 68.9% -11.1 0
1929-12-01 Real Sociedad W 3-0 1713 1682 71.0% 15.2% 13.8% +19.2 2
1929-12-01 @ Barcelona L 0-3 1682 1713 13.8% 15.2% 71.0% -19.2 0
1929-12-01 Espanol W 4-1 1625 1670 64.7% 15.3% 20.0% +22.8 2
1929-12-01 @ Racing Santander L 1-4 1670 1625 20.0% 15.3% 64.7% -22.8 0
1929-12-01 Arenas de Getxo W 3-2 1660 1661 68.5% 15.2% 16.2% +7.3 2
1929-12-01 @ Real Union L 2-3 1661 1660 16.2% 15.2% 68.5% -7.3 0
1929-12-08 Barcelona L 1-3 1654 1732 61.4% 15.3% 23.3% -43.9 0
1929-12-08 @ Arenas de Getxo W 3-1 1732 1654 23.3% 15.3% 61.4% +43.9 4
1929-12-08 Atletico Madrid W 1-0 1647 1672 66.5% 15.3% 18.2% +9.1 2
1929-12-08 @ Espanol L 0-1 1672 1647 18.2% 15.3% 66.5% -9.1 2
1929-12-08 Athletic Bilbao D 2-2 1647 1704 63.5% 15.3% 21.2% -3.4 1
1929-12-08 @ Europa D 2-2 1704 1647 21.2% 15.3% 63.5% +3.4 3
1929-12-08 Real Union D 2-2 1704 1668 71.3% 15.2% 13.5% -4.7 1
1929-12-08 @ Real Madrid D 2-2 1668 1704 13.5% 15.2% 71.3% +4.7 3
1929-12-08 Racing Santander W 7-0 1662 1648 69.8% 15.2% 15.0% +46.1 2
1929-12-08 @ Real Sociedad L 0-7 1648 1662 15.0% 15.2% 69.8% -46.1 2
1929-12-15 Real Sociedad D 2-2 1708 1709 68.6% 15.2% 16.2% -4.2 4
1929-12-15 @ Athletic Bilbao D 2-2 1709 1708 16.2% 15.2% 68.6% +4.2 3
1929-12-15 Real Madrid W 2-1 1663 1699 65.6% 15.3% 19.2% +9.0 4
1929-12-15 @ Atletico Madrid L 1-2 1699 1663 19.2% 15.3% 65.6% -9.0 1
1929-12-15 Europa W 2-1 1776 1644 76.8% 15.0% 8.2% +4.0 6
1929-12-15 @ Barcelona L 1-2 1644 1776 8.2% 15.0% 76.8% -4.0 1
1929-12-15 Arenas de Getxo L 2-5 1602 1610 68.0% 15.2% 16.8% -59.6 2
1929-12-15 @ Racing Santander W 5-2 1610 1602 16.8% 15.2% 68.0% +59.6 2
1929-12-15 Espanol D 3-3 1672 1656 69.9% 15.2% 14.9% -3.7 4
1929-12-15 @ Real Union D 3-3 1656 1672 14.9% 15.2% 69.9% +3.7 3
1929-12-22 Europa L 2-3 1670 1640 70.9% 15.2% 13.9% -27.9 2
1929-12-22 @ Arenas de Getxo W 3-2 1640 1670 13.9% 15.2% 70.9% +27.9 3
1929-12-22 Real Union D 3-3 1672 1669 68.9% 15.2% 15.8% -3.6 5
1929-12-22 @ Atletico Madrid D 3-3 1669 1672 15.8% 15.2% 68.9% +3.6 5
1929-12-22 Racing Santander W 5-0 1780 1542 80.6% 14.7% 4.6% +10.8 8
1929-12-22 @ Barcelona L 0-5 1542 1780 4.6% 14.7% 80.6% -10.8 2
1929-12-22 Athletic Bilbao D 2-2 1660 1703 64.8% 15.3% 19.9% -3.6 4
1929-12-22 @ Espanol D 2-2 1703 1660 19.9% 15.3% 64.8% +3.6 5
1929-12-22 Real Madrid W 4-0 1713 1690 70.4% 15.2% 14.4% +26.2 5
1929-12-22 @ Real Sociedad L 0-4 1690 1713 14.4% 15.2% 70.4% -26.2 1
1929-12-29 Athletic Bilbao D 3-3 1642 1707 62.7% 15.3% 22.0% -2.7 3
1929-12-29 @ Arenas de Getxo D 3-3 1707 1642 22.0% 15.3% 62.7% +2.7 6
1929-12-29 Real Sociedad W 3-2 1668 1739 62.1% 15.3% 22.6% +9.9 5
1929-12-29 @ Europa L 2-3 1739 1668 22.6% 15.3% 62.1% -9.9 5
1929-12-29 Atletico Madrid W 3-2 1531 1669 54.6% 15.3% 30.1% +12.8 4
1929-12-29 @ Racing Santander L 2-3 1669 1531 30.1% 15.3% 54.6% -12.8 5
1929-12-29 Espanol L 2-4 1664 1656 69.2% 15.2% 15.6% -44.4 1
1929-12-29 @ Real Madrid W 4-2 1656 1664 15.6% 15.2% 69.2% +44.4 6
1929-12-29 Barcelona L 1-3 1672 1791 56.8% 15.3% 27.9% -40.7 5
1929-12-29 @ Real Union W 3-1 1791 1672 27.9% 15.3% 56.8% +40.7 10
1930-01-05 Real Union W 5-2 1710 1631 74.0% 15.1% 10.9% +11.2 8
1930-01-05 @ Athletic Bilbao L 2-5 1631 1710 10.9% 15.1% 74.0% -11.2 5
1930-01-05 Atletico Madrid W 4-2 1832 1656 78.6% 14.9% 6.5% +5.0 12
1930-01-05 @ Barcelona L 2-4 1656 1832 6.5% 14.9% 78.6% -5.0 5
1930-01-05 Racing Santander W 6-0 1620 1544 73.8% 15.1% 11.1% +29.8 3
1930-01-05 @ Real Madrid L 0-6 1544 1620 11.1% 15.1% 73.8% -29.8 4
1930-01-05 Arenas de Getxo D 4-4 1729 1639 74.7% 15.1% 10.2% -3.9 6
1930-01-05 @ Real Sociedad D 4-4 1639 1729 10.2% 15.1% 74.7% +3.9 4
1930-01-09 Europa L 1-2 1701 1678 70.4% 15.2% 14.4% -29.2 6
1930-01-09 @ Espanol W 2-1 1678 1701 14.4% 15.2% 70.4% +29.2 7
1930-01-12 Espanol W 2-0 1643 1672 66.2% 15.3% 18.5% +17.4 6
1930-01-12 @ Arenas de Getxo L 0-2 1672 1643 18.5% 15.3% 66.2% -17.4 6
1930-01-12 Real Sociedad D 1-1 1651 1725 61.8% 15.3% 22.9% -4.1 6
1930-01-12 @ Atletico Madrid D 1-1 1725 1651 22.9% 15.3% 61.8% +4.1 7
1930-01-12 Athletic Bilbao D 1-1 1837 1721 76.0% 15.0% 8.9% -7.5 13
1930-01-12 @ Barcelona D 1-1 1721 1837 8.9% 15.0% 76.0% +7.5 9
1930-01-12 Real Madrid L 1-2 1707 1649 72.8% 15.2% 12.1% -30.2 7
1930-01-12 @ Europa W 2-1 1649 1707 12.1% 15.2% 72.8% +30.2 5
1930-01-12 Racing Santander W 6-3 1620 1514 75.5% 15.1% 9.4% +9.1 7
1930-01-12 @ Real Union L 3-6 1514 1620 9.4% 15.1% 75.5% -9.1 4
1930-01-19 Atletico Madrid W 6-1 1728 1647 74.2% 15.1% 10.7% +20.2 11
1930-01-19 @ Athletic Bilbao L 1-6 1647 1728 10.7% 15.1% 74.2% -20.2 6
1930-01-19 Barcelona W 4-0 1654 1829 49.7% 15.3% 35.0% +58.1 8
1930-01-19 @ Espanol L 0-4 1829 1654 35.0% 15.3% 49.7% -58.1 13
1930-01-19 Europa W 6-0 1505 1677 50.2% 15.3% 34.5% +84.1 6
1930-01-19 @ Racing Santander L 0-6 1677 1505 34.5% 15.3% 50.2% -84.0 7
1930-01-19 Arenas de Getxo W 5-2 1680 1661 70.1% 15.2% 14.7% +14.9 7
1930-01-19 @ Real Madrid L 2-5 1661 1680 14.7% 15.2% 70.1% -14.9 6
1930-01-19 Real Union L 2-3 1729 1629 75.2% 15.1% 9.7% -29.7 7
1930-01-19 @ Real Sociedad W 3-2 1629 1729 9.7% 15.1% 75.2% +29.7 9
1930-01-26 Racing Santander W 4-0 1748 1589 77.9% 14.9% 7.1% +13.3 13
1930-01-26 @ Athletic Bilbao L 0-4 1589 1748 7.1% 14.9% 77.9% -13.3 6
1930-01-26 Arenas de Getxo L 1-3 1627 1646 67.1% 15.2% 17.7% -48.0 6
1930-01-26 @ Atletico Madrid W 3-1 1646 1627 17.7% 15.2% 67.1% +48.0 8
1930-01-26 Real Madrid L 1-4 1771 1694 73.9% 15.1% 11.0% -75.3 13
1930-01-26 @ Barcelona W 4-1 1694 1771 11.0% 15.1% 73.9% +75.3 9
1930-01-26 Real Union L 0-1 1593 1659 62.6% 15.3% 22.1% -27.4 7
1930-01-26 @ Europa W 1-0 1659 1593 22.1% 15.3% 62.6% +27.4 11
1930-01-26 Espanol W 1-0 1700 1712 67.6% 15.2% 17.2% +8.6 9
1930-01-26 @ Real Sociedad L 0-1 1712 1700 17.2% 15.2% 67.6% -8.6 8
1930-02-02 Real Union W 7-2 1694 1686 69.2% 15.2% 15.6% +24.0 10
1930-02-02 @ Arenas de Getxo L 2-7 1686 1694 15.6% 15.2% 69.2% -24.0 11
1930-02-02 Racing Santander W 3-0 1704 1576 76.6% 15.0% 8.4% +12.0 10
1930-02-02 @ Espanol L 0-3 1576 1704 8.4% 15.0% 76.6% -12.0 6
1930-02-02 Atletico Madrid W 2-0 1565 1579 67.5% 15.2% 17.2% +16.3 9
1930-02-02 @ Europa L 0-2 1579 1565 17.2% 15.2% 67.5% -16.3 6
1930-02-02 Athletic Bilbao L 2-3 1770 1762 69.2% 15.2% 15.5% -27.2 9
1930-02-02 @ Real Madrid W 3-2 1762 1770 15.5% 15.2% 69.2% +27.2 15
1930-02-02 Barcelona L 1-2 1708 1696 69.6% 15.2% 15.2% -28.8 9
1930-02-02 @ Real Sociedad W 2-1 1696 1708 15.2% 15.2% 69.6% +28.8 15
1930-02-09 Europa W 3-0 1789 1582 79.7% 14.8% 5.5% +7.9 17
1930-02-09 @ Athletic Bilbao L 0-3 1582 1789 5.5% 14.8% 79.7% -7.9 9
1930-02-09 Arenas de Getxo W 3-1 1725 1718 69.2% 15.2% 15.6% +12.8 17
1930-02-09 @ Barcelona L 1-3 1718 1725 15.6% 15.2% 69.2% -12.9 10
1930-02-09 Real Sociedad W 2-0 1564 1679 57.2% 15.3% 27.5% +24.8 8
1930-02-09 @ Racing Santander L 0-2 1679 1564 27.5% 15.3% 57.2% -24.8 9
1930-02-09 Real Madrid D 2-2 1662 1743 61.2% 15.3% 23.5% -2.9 12
1930-02-09 @ Real Union D 2-2 1743 1662 23.5% 15.3% 61.2% +3.0 10
1930-02-12 Espanol W 2-0 1562 1716 52.5% 15.3% 32.1% +28.5 8
1930-02-12 @ Atletico Madrid L 0-2 1716 1562 32.1% 15.3% 52.5% -28.5 10
1930-02-16 Racing Santander W 5-1 1705 1589 76.0% 15.0% 8.9% +13.9 12
1930-02-16 @ Arenas de Getxo L 1-5 1589 1705 8.9% 15.0% 76.0% -13.9 8
1930-02-16 Real Union W 3-1 1687 1659 70.8% 15.2% 14.1% +11.7 12
1930-02-16 @ Espanol L 1-3 1659 1687 14.1% 15.2% 70.8% -11.7 12
1930-02-16 Barcelona L 0-3 1574 1738 51.2% 15.3% 33.5% -61.9 9
1930-02-16 @ Europa W 3-0 1738 1574 33.5% 15.3% 51.2% +61.9 19
1930-02-16 Atletico Madrid W 4-1 1745 1591 77.8% 14.9% 7.3% +8.8 12
1930-02-16 @ Real Madrid L 1-4 1591 1745 7.3% 14.9% 77.8% -8.8 8
1930-02-16 Athletic Bilbao L 1-7 1655 1797 53.9% 15.3% 30.7% -102.5 9
1930-02-16 @ Real Sociedad W 7-1 1797 1655 30.7% 15.3% 53.9% +102.5 19
1930-02-23 Espanol W 6-0 1899 1699 79.5% 14.8% 5.7% +15.7 21
1930-02-23 @ Athletic Bilbao L 0-6 1699 1899 5.7% 14.8% 79.5% -15.7 12
1930-02-23 Arenas de Getxo L 1-2 1512 1719 45.3% 15.3% 39.4% -19.1 9
1930-02-23 @ Europa W 2-1 1719 1512 39.4% 15.3% 45.3% +19.1 14
1930-02-23 Barcelona W 2-1 1575 1799 42.8% 15.3% 41.9% +17.9 10
1930-02-23 @ Racing Santander L 1-2 1799 1575 41.9% 15.3% 42.8% -17.9 19
1930-02-23 Real Sociedad D 1-1 1754 1552 79.5% 14.8% 5.6% -8.3 13
1930-02-23 @ Real Madrid D 1-1 1552 1754 5.6% 14.8% 79.5% +8.3 10
1930-02-23 Atletico Madrid W 8-2 1648 1582 73.3% 15.1% 11.6% +21.3 14
1930-02-23 @ Real Union L 2-8 1582 1648 11.6% 15.1% 73.3% -21.3 8
1930-03-02 Arenas de Getxo W 5-2 1915 1738 78.6% 14.9% 6.5% +6.8 23
1930-03-02 @ Athletic Bilbao L 2-5 1738 1915 6.5% 14.9% 78.6% -6.8 14
1930-03-02 Racing Santander W 3-1 1561 1593 65.9% 15.3% 18.9% +15.3 10
1930-03-02 @ Atletico Madrid L 1-3 1593 1561 18.9% 15.3% 65.9% -15.3 10
1930-03-02 Europa W 2-0 1560 1493 73.4% 15.1% 11.5% +11.1 12
1930-03-02 @ Real Sociedad L 0-2 1493 1560 11.5% 15.1% 73.4% -11.1 9
1930-03-05 Real Union W 4-2 1782 1669 75.8% 15.0% 9.1% +6.9 21
1930-03-05 @ Barcelona L 2-4 1669 1782 9.1% 15.0% 75.8% -6.9 14
1930-03-05 Real Madrid W 8-1 1683 1746 63.0% 15.3% 21.7% +53.2 14
1930-03-05 @ Espanol L 1-8 1746 1683 21.7% 15.3% 63.0% -53.2 13
1930-03-09 Real Sociedad W 3-1 1731 1572 78.0% 14.9% 7.1% +6.1 16
1930-03-09 @ Arenas de Getxo L 1-3 1572 1731 7.1% 14.9% 78.0% -6.1 12
1930-03-09 Barcelona W 3-2 1576 1788 44.5% 15.3% 40.2% +16.4 12
1930-03-09 @ Atletico Madrid L 2-3 1788 1576 40.2% 15.3% 44.5% -16.4 21
1930-03-09 Espanol L 1-2 1481 1736 38.5% 15.3% 46.2% -16.6 9
1930-03-09 @ Europa W 2-1 1736 1481 46.2% 15.3% 38.5% +16.6 16
1930-03-09 Real Madrid W 2-0 1578 1693 57.2% 15.3% 27.4% +24.8 12
1930-03-09 @ Racing Santander L 0-2 1693 1578 27.4% 15.3% 57.2% -24.8 13
1930-03-09 Athletic Bilbao D 1-1 1662 1922 37.8% 15.3% 46.9% +0.9 15
1930-03-09 @ Real Union D 1-1 1922 1662 46.9% 15.3% 37.8% -0.9 24
1930-03-16 Barcelona W 4-3 1921 1772 77.5% 15.0% 7.5% +3.4 26
1930-03-16 @ Athletic Bilbao L 3-4 1772 1921 7.5% 15.0% 77.5% -3.4 21
1930-03-16 Arenas de Getxo W 1-0 1753 1737 69.9% 15.2% 14.9% +7.6 18
1930-03-16 @ Espanol L 0-1 1737 1753 14.9% 15.2% 69.9% -7.5 16
1930-03-16 Real Union W 4-2 1602 1663 63.2% 15.3% 21.6% +15.5 14
1930-03-16 @ Racing Santander L 2-4 1663 1602 21.6% 15.3% 63.2% -15.4 15
1930-03-16 Europa W 6-1 1668 1465 79.6% 14.8% 5.6% +10.8 15
1930-03-16 @ Real Madrid L 1-6 1465 1668 5.6% 14.8% 79.6% -10.8 9
1930-03-16 Atletico Madrid W 2-0 1565 1592 66.3% 15.3% 18.4% +17.3 14
1930-03-16 @ Real Sociedad L 0-2 1592 1565 18.4% 15.3% 66.3% -17.3 12
1930-03-22 Racing Santander W 5-0 1454 1618 51.2% 15.3% 33.5% +69.0 11
1930-03-22 @ Europa L 0-5 1618 1454 33.5% 15.3% 51.2% -69.0 14
1930-03-23 Real Madrid W 5-1 1730 1679 72.3% 15.2% 12.5% +19.1 18
1930-03-23 @ Arenas de Getxo L 1-5 1679 1730 12.5% 15.2% 72.3% -19.1 15
1930-03-23 Athletic Bilbao L 3-4 1575 1924 26.5% 15.2% 58.4% -11.1 12
1930-03-23 @ Atletico Madrid W 4-3 1924 1575 58.4% 15.2% 26.5% +11.1 28
1930-03-23 Espanol W 5-4 1769 1761 69.3% 15.2% 15.5% +6.7 23
1930-03-23 @ Barcelona L 4-5 1761 1769 15.5% 15.2% 69.3% -6.7 18
1930-03-23 Real Sociedad W 3-2 1648 1583 73.2% 15.1% 11.7% +5.3 17
1930-03-23 @ Real Union L 2-3 1583 1648 11.7% 15.1% 73.2% -5.4 14
1930-03-30 Atletico Madrid W 2-1 1749 1564 78.9% 14.9% 6.2% +3.1 20
1930-03-30 @ Arenas de Getxo L 1-2 1564 1749 6.2% 14.9% 78.9% -3.1 12
1930-03-30 Real Sociedad W 3-1 1754 1577 78.6% 14.9% 6.5% +5.5 20
1930-03-30 @ Espanol L 1-3 1577 1754 6.5% 14.9% 78.6% -5.5 14
1930-03-30 Athletic Bilbao L 2-3 1549 1936 22.4% 15.1% 62.5% -9.8 14
1930-03-30 @ Racing Santander W 3-2 1936 1549 62.5% 15.1% 22.4% +9.8 30
1930-03-30 Barcelona W 5-1 1660 1775 57.2% 15.3% 27.5% +39.3 17
1930-03-30 @ Real Madrid L 1-5 1775 1660 27.5% 15.3% 57.2% -39.3 23
1930-03-30 Europa L 3-4 1653 1523 76.7% 15.0% 8.3% -29.6 17
1930-03-30 @ Real Union W 4-3 1523 1653 8.3% 15.0% 76.7% +29.6 13

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1930-06-14 Sevilla W 2-0 1539 1555 67.3% 15.2% 17.4% +16.4 1-0
1930-06-14 @ Racing Santander L 0-2 1555 1539 17.4% 15.2% 67.3% -16.4 0-1
1930-07-07 Racing Santander W 2-1 1538 1555 67.2% 15.2% 17.5% +8.3 1-1
1930-07-07 @ Sevilla L 1-2 1555 1538 17.5% 15.2% 67.2% -8.3 1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1930-03-30 8.30% Europa 1523 4 @ Real Union 1653 3
2 1930-01-19 9.72% Real Union 1629 3 @ Real Sociedad 1729 2
3 1930-01-26 10.97% Real Madrid 1694 4 @ Barcelona 1771 1
4 1930-01-12 12.10% Real Madrid 1649 2 @ Europa 1707 1
5 1929-12-22 13.92% Europa 1640 3 @ Arenas de Getxo 1670 2
6 1930-01-09 14.40% Europa 1678 2 @ Espanol 1701 1
7 1930-02-02 15.19% Barcelona 1696 2 @ Real Sociedad 1708 1
8 1930-02-02 15.53% Athletic Bilbao 1762 3 @ Real Madrid 1770 2
9 1929-12-29 15.55% Espanol 1656 4 @ Real Madrid 1664 2
10 1929-12-15 16.81% Arenas de Getxo 1610 5 @ Racing Santander 1602 2
11 1930-01-26 17.69% Arenas de Getxo 1646 3 @ Atletico Madrid 1627 1
12 1930-01-26 22.10% Real Union 1659 1 @ Europa 1593 0
13 1929-12-08 23.34% Barcelona 1732 3 @ Arenas de Getxo 1654 1
14 1929-12-29 27.89% Barcelona 1791 3 @ Real Union 1672 1
15 1930-02-16 30.74% Athletic Bilbao 1797 7 @ Real Sociedad 1655 1
16 1930-02-16 33.52% Barcelona 1738 3 @ Europa 1574 0
17 1930-02-23 39.39% Arenas de Getxo 1719 2 @ Europa 1512 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1930-02-16 102.53 Athletic Bilbao 7 1797 30.74% @ Real Sociedad 1 1655 53.94% 15.32%
2 1930-01-19 84.05 @ Racing Santander 6 1505 50.19% Europa 0 1677 34.50% 15.32%
3 1930-01-26 75.28 Real Madrid 4 1694 10.97% @ Barcelona 1 1771 73.92% 15.11%
4 1930-03-22 68.97 @ Europa 5 1454 51.19% Racing Santander 0 1618 33.49% 15.32%
5 1930-02-16 61.88 Barcelona 3 1738 33.52% @ Europa 0 1574 51.16% 15.32%
6 1929-12-15 59.64 Arenas de Getxo 5 1610 16.81% @ Racing Santander 2 1602 67.96% 15.24%
7 1930-01-19 58.14 @ Espanol 4 1654 49.68% Barcelona 0 1829 35.00% 15.32%
8 1930-03-05 53.22 @ Espanol 8 1683 62.97% Real Madrid 1 1746 21.74% 15.29%
9 1930-01-26 48.03 Arenas de Getxo 3 1646 17.69% @ Atletico Madrid 1 1627 67.06% 15.25%
10 1929-12-08 46.10 @ Real Sociedad 7 1662 69.75% Racing Santander 0 1648 15.04% 15.21%
11 1929-12-29 44.40 Espanol 4 1656 15.55% @ Real Madrid 2 1664 69.23% 15.22%
12 1929-12-08 43.89 Barcelona 3 1732 23.34% @ Arenas de Getxo 1 1654 61.36% 15.30%
13 1929-12-29 40.70 Barcelona 3 1791 27.89% @ Real Union 1 1672 56.79% 15.32%
14 1930-03-30 39.27 @ Real Madrid 5 1660 57.17% Barcelona 1 1775 27.52% 15.32%
15 1930-01-12 30.21 Real Madrid 2 1649 12.10% @ Europa 1 1707 72.75% 15.15%
16 1930-01-05 29.80 @ Real Madrid 6 1620 73.83% Racing Santander 0 1544 11.05% 15.12%
17 1930-01-19 29.71 Real Union 3 1629 9.72% @ Real Sociedad 2 1729 75.21% 15.07%
18 1930-03-30 29.61 Europa 4 1523 8.30% @ Real Union 3 1653 76.69% 15.01%
19 1930-01-09 29.17 Europa 2 1678 14.40% @ Espanol 1 1701 70.40% 15.20%
20 1930-02-02 28.82 Barcelona 2 1696 15.19% @ Real Sociedad 1 1708 69.59% 15.21%
21 1930-02-12 28.46 @ Atletico Madrid 2 1562 52.55% Espanol 0 1716 32.13% 15.32%
22 1929-12-22 27.89 Europa 3 1640 13.92% @ Arenas de Getxo 2 1670 70.89% 15.19%
23 1930-01-26 27.42 Real Union 1 1659 22.10% @ Europa 0 1593 62.61% 15.29%
24 1930-02-02 27.20 Athletic Bilbao 3 1762 15.53% @ Real Madrid 2 1770 69.25% 15.22%
25 1929-12-22 26.19 @ Real Sociedad 4 1713 70.37% Real Madrid 0 1690 14.43% 15.20%