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1929 La Liga Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Barcelona

25 points · 1st Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Barcelona

6.50 points above expected

25 points · 18.50 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Racing Santander

5.92 points below expected

9 points · 14.92 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Barcelona Champion 18 11 3 4 25 37 23 +14 18.50 +6.50
2 Real Madrid 18 11 1 6 23 40 27 +13 19.20 +3.80
3 Athletic Bilbao 18 8 4 6 20 43 33 +10 19.59 +0.41
4 Real Sociedad 18 8 4 6 20 46 41 +5 19.15 +0.85
5 Arenas de Getxo 18 8 3 7 19 32 39 -7 17.93 +1.07
6 Atletico Madrid 18 8 2 8 18 43 41 +2 17.32 +0.68
7 Espanol 18 7 4 7 18 32 38 -6 18.25 -0.25
8 Europa 18 6 4 8 16 45 49 -4 17.38 -1.38
9 Real Union 18 5 2 11 12 40 42 -2 17.76 -5.76
10 Racing Santander 18 3 3 12 9 25 50 -25 14.92 -5.92

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Barcelona 1718 25 18.50 +6.50 98.7% 6 13 16 19 21 24 30
Real Madrid 1715 23 19.20 +3.80 90.3% 6 14 17 19 21 25 32
Athletic Bilbao 1684 20 19.59 +0.41 60.9% 6 14 17 20 22 25 33
Real Sociedad 1657 20 19.15 +0.85 66.2% 7 14 17 19 21 24 31
Espanol 1637 18 18.25 -0.25 52.7% 7 13 16 18 21 24 32
Arenas de Getxo 1623 19 17.93 +1.07 68.4% 4 13 16 18 20 23 31
Atletico Madrid 1617 18 17.32 +0.68 63.8% 4 12 15 17 20 23 30
Europa 1611 16 17.38 -1.38 39.5% 3 12 15 17 20 23 28
Real Union 1606 12 17.76 -5.76 5.7% 4 12 15 18 20 23 30
Racing Santander 1546 9 14.92 -5.92 4.8% 4 10 13 15 17 20 30

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ADG AB AM BAR ESP EUR RS RM RS RU
Arenas de Getxo —
2-0-0
2.44
1-0-1
2.92
0-1-1
2.61
2-0-0
2.77
0-1-1
2.93
1-0-1
3.51
1-0-1
2.63
1-0-1
2.66
0-1-1
2.85
Athletic Bilbao
0-0-2
3.21
 —
1-1-0
3.22
1-0-1
2.99
1-0-1
3.04
1-1-0
3.22
1-1-0
3.34
1-0-1
2.80
1-1-0
2.89
1-0-1
3.16
Atletico Madrid
1-0-1
2.73
0-1-1
2.43
 —
1-0-1
2.69
1-0-1
2.63
1-0-1
2.86
2-0-0
3.20
0-0-2
2.56
0-1-1
2.72
2-0-0
2.64
Barcelona
1-1-0
3.04
1-0-1
2.67
1-0-1
2.96
 —
1-1-0
2.89
1-1-0
3.05
2-0-0
3.06
1-0-1
2.77
1-0-1
2.77
2-0-0
3.02
Espanol
0-0-2
2.88
1-0-1
2.61
1-0-1
3.02
0-1-1
2.76
 —
2-0-0
2.81
1-1-0
3.46
1-0-1
2.62
0-2-0
2.72
1-0-1
2.88
Europa
1-1-0
2.72
0-1-1
2.44
1-0-1
2.79
0-1-1
2.60
0-0-2
2.84
 —
1-0-1
3.27
1-0-1
2.63
1-0-1
2.54
1-1-0
2.69
Racing Santander
1-0-1
2.15
0-1-1
2.33
0-0-2
2.45
0-0-2
2.60
0-1-1
2.19
1-0-1
2.38
 —
0-1-1
2.20
1-0-1
2.00
0-0-2
2.50
Real Madrid
1-0-1
3.02
1-0-1
2.85
2-0-0
3.09
1-0-1
2.88
1-0-1
3.03
1-0-1
3.02
1-1-0
3.45
 —
1-0-1
2.79
2-0-0
3.08
Real Sociedad
1-0-1
2.99
0-1-1
2.76
1-1-0
2.94
1-0-1
2.88
0-2-0
2.93
1-0-1
3.11
1-0-1
3.65
1-0-1
2.86
 —
2-0-0
3.01
Real Union
1-1-0
2.80
1-0-1
2.49
0-0-2
3.01
0-0-2
2.63
1-0-1
2.77
0-1-1
2.97
2-0-0
3.15
0-0-2
2.57
0-0-2
2.64
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.15 +2.8
Allowed 0.74 -4.7
Differential 0.74 +3.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.11%2.22%4.44%4.44%2.22%1.11%15.56%
12.22%8.89%5.56%2.78%2.78%4.44%26.67%
24.44%5.56%3.33%6.11%0.56%1.67%21.67%
34.44%2.78%6.11%3.33%1.11%0.56%18.33%
42.22%2.78%0.56%1.11%—1.67%8.33%
5+1.11%4.44%1.67%0.56%1.67%—9.44%
Total15.56%26.67%21.67%18.33%8.33%9.44%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.13 2.13 +0.00
SD 1.70 1.70 2.63
CV 0.80 0.80 —
Max 9 9 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%———11.11%
15.56%5.56%———11.11%22.22%
2—16.67%11.11%11.11%—5.56%44.44%
311.11%—11.11%———22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%22.22%33.33%11.11%—16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 2.17 -0.39
SD 0.94 1.89 2.33
CV 0.53 0.87 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
1—11.11%——5.56%5.56%22.22%
211.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
3——5.56%5.56%—5.56%16.67%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total27.78%27.78%11.11%16.67%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.39 1.83 +0.56
SD 2.20 1.82 3.13
CV 0.92 0.99 —
Max 9 6 +9
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———11.11%5.56%—16.67%
1——11.11%—5.56%—16.67%
2—11.11%—11.11%——22.22%
3—5.56%5.56%11.11%——22.22%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
Total5.56%27.78%16.67%33.33%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.39 2.28 +0.11
SD 1.85 1.23 2.61
CV 0.78 0.54 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.56%——5.56%
116.67%11.11%5.56%—5.56%5.56%44.44%
211.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
35.56%—————5.56%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
Total38.89%27.78%16.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 1.28 +0.78
SD 1.51 1.49 2.37
CV 0.74 1.16 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%22.22%
1—22.22%5.56%——5.56%33.33%
2———————
311.11%5.56%11.11%—5.56%—33.33%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+———————
Total16.67%38.89%22.22%5.56%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 2.11 -0.33
SD 1.44 2.40 3.25
CV 0.81 1.14 —
Max 4 9 +4
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%5.56%—5.56%16.67%
1—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
2——5.56%5.56%—5.56%16.67%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
4—11.11%—5.56%—11.11%27.78%
5+——11.11%———11.11%
Total—22.22%27.78%27.78%—22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 2.72 -0.22
SD 1.72 1.45 2.32
CV 0.69 0.53 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 1 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%5.56%11.11%—27.78%
1—5.56%11.11%16.67%5.56%11.11%50.00%
2——5.56%———5.56%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+—11.11%————11.11%
Total5.56%16.67%27.78%22.22%16.67%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 2.78 -1.39
SD 1.69 1.83 2.87
CV 1.21 0.66 —
Max 6 8 +5
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
1———————
222.22%16.67%5.56%5.56%—5.56%55.56%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4—————5.56%5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total33.33%33.33%11.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 1.50 +0.72
SD 1.44 1.69 2.37
CV 0.65 1.13 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
1—16.67%5.56%——5.56%27.78%
2————5.56%—5.56%
311.11%—16.67%5.56%5.56%—38.89%
4———————
5+—5.56%——11.11%—16.67%
Total11.11%27.78%22.22%11.11%22.22%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.56 2.28 +0.28
SD 2.01 1.64 2.56
CV 0.79 0.72 —
Max 8 6 +7
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%———11.11%
1—5.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
2———22.22%——22.22%
3—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
Total—22.22%27.78%44.44%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 2.33 -0.11
SD 1.90 0.91 2.19
CV 0.85 0.39 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 1 -3

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Barcelona 25 18.50 +6.50
2 Real Madrid 23 19.20 +3.80
3 Arenas de Getxo 19 17.93 +1.07
4 Real Sociedad 20 19.15 +0.85
5 Atletico Madrid 18 17.32 +0.68

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Racing Santander 9 14.92 -5.92
2 Real Union 12 17.76 -5.76
3 Europa 16 17.38 -1.38
4 Espanol 18 18.25 -0.25
5 Athletic Bilbao 20 19.59 +0.41

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Arenas de Getxo 6 Mar 10 – Apr 28 1 in 186
2 Barcelona 6 Apr 7 – May 30 1 in 172
3 Real Madrid 5 Feb 10 – Mar 10 1 in 71
4 Atletico Madrid 3 Mar 3 – Mar 24 1 in 14
5 Real Union 3 Apr 28 – May 12 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Racing Santander 7 Feb 12 – Mar 31 1 in 357
2 Real Union 6 May 19 – Jun 23 1 in 147
3 Atletico Madrid 4 Mar 31 – Apr 28 1 in 48
4 Real Madrid 3 Apr 28 – May 19 1 in 17
5 Arenas de Getxo 3 Jun 16 – Jun 30 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Barcelona 11 Apr 7 – Jun 30 1 in 361
2 Arenas de Getxo 9 Feb 24 – May 5 1 in 81
3 Racing Santander 3 May 12 – May 30 1 in 27
4 Atletico Madrid 4 Jun 2 – Jun 23 1 in 14
5 Real Madrid 5 Feb 10 – Mar 10 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Racing Santander 7 Feb 12 – Mar 31 1 in 26
2 Athletic Bilbao 4 May 5 – May 30 1 in 24
3 Espanol 6 May 26 – Jun 23 1 in 22
4 Real Madrid 4 Apr 28 – May 26 1 in 20
5 Real Union 6 May 19 – Jun 23 1 in 15

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Barcelona12.76%11.70%12.37%12.49%10.66%10.24%9.60%8.11%7.00%5.07%
Real Madrid17.33%14.92%13.23%11.66%10.16%9.04%8.11%6.78%5.13%3.64%
Athletic Bilbao19.51%15.41%13.66%11.53%9.87%8.57%7.96%5.88%4.88%2.73%
Real Sociedad14.91%14.03%12.55%12.08%10.92%9.81%8.73%7.77%5.46%3.74%
Arenas de Getxo6.94%8.84%9.03%9.84%10.58%11.17%11.54%11.71%11.39%8.96%
Atletico Madrid5.99%7.60%8.44%9.33%10.76%11.32%11.27%11.95%12.55%10.79%
Espanol8.44%9.98%10.65%10.07%11.01%10.55%10.96%10.90%10.11%7.33%
Europa6.02%6.76%8.29%9.17%10.55%11.31%11.48%12.76%12.46%11.20%
Real Union7.00%9.06%9.15%9.84%10.07%11.31%11.44%11.54%11.27%9.32%
Racing Santander1.10%1.70%2.63%3.99%5.42%6.68%8.91%12.60%19.75%37.22%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+36.67%
Strong Edge
60.00%16.67%23.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge
122 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
0133.61400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+1.21 goals
Strong Home
-2+1.09+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
7.6
Wide Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
13%
Barcelona, 4th of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Photo Finish
00.100.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.64 * Some Luck: 2.64 to 3.95 * Lucky: 3.95 to 5.27 * Wild Swing: 5.27 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.1 * Close: 2.1 to 3.15 * Off: 3.15 to 4.2 * Way Off: 4.2 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.60 points
Some Luck
03.308
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.40
Pinpoint
02.626
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
98.66%
Barcelona
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
4.80%
Racing Santander
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.14
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.12
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
59%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
73%
Clear Edge
50%73%100%
Close Games
Expected
50%
Very Frequent
0%43%100%
Blowouts
Expected
34%
Very Frequent
0%35%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.56
Highly Predictable
00.522
Matchup Imbalance
0.55
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.21
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
N/A
No prior ratings
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Chalky
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
As Expected
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.
Probability calibration
0.59
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.09
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.077
Well Within Noise
00.1300.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff
Athletic Bilbao 97.27% 2.73%
Real Madrid 96.36% 3.64%
Real Sociedad 96.26% 3.74%
Barcelona 94.93% 5.07%
Espanol 92.67% 7.33%
Arenas de Getxo 91.04% 8.96%
Real Union 90.68% 9.32%
Atletico Madrid 89.21% 10.79%
Europa 88.80% 11.20%
Racing Santander — 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1929-02-10 Atletico Madrid L 2-3 1641 1641 65.0% 17.4% 17.6% -10.4 0
1929-02-10 @ Arenas de Getxo W 3-2 1641 1641 17.6% 17.4% 65.0% +10.4 2
1929-02-10 Real Union W 3-2 1641 1641 65.0% 17.4% 17.6% +3.3 2
1929-02-10 @ Espanol L 2-3 1641 1641 17.6% 17.4% 65.0% -3.3 0
1929-02-10 Europa W 5-0 1641 1641 65.0% 17.4% 17.6% +16.2 2
1929-02-10 @ Real Madrid L 0-5 1641 1641 17.6% 17.4% 65.0% -16.2 0
1929-02-10 Athletic Bilbao D 1-1 1641 1641 65.0% 17.4% 17.6% -2.0 1
1929-02-10 @ Real Sociedad D 1-1 1641 1641 17.6% 17.4% 65.0% +2.0 1
1929-02-12 Barcelona L 0-2 1641 1641 65.0% 17.4% 17.6% -21.9 0
1929-02-12 @ Racing Santander W 2-0 1641 1641 17.6% 17.4% 65.0% +21.9 2
1929-02-17 Espanol W 9-0 1643 1645 64.8% 17.4% 17.7% +28.4 3
1929-02-17 @ Athletic Bilbao L 0-9 1645 1643 17.7% 17.4% 64.8% -28.4 2
1929-02-17 Real Sociedad L 0-3 1652 1639 66.0% 17.3% 16.6% -32.3 2
1929-02-17 @ Atletico Madrid W 3-0 1639 1652 16.6% 17.3% 66.0% +32.3 3
1929-02-17 Real Madrid L 1-2 1663 1657 65.5% 17.4% 17.2% -11.0 2
1929-02-17 @ Barcelona W 2-1 1657 1663 17.2% 17.4% 65.5% +11.0 4
1929-02-17 Arenas de Getxo W 5-2 1625 1631 64.4% 17.4% 18.1% +7.5 2
1929-02-17 @ Europa L 2-5 1631 1625 18.1% 17.4% 64.4% -7.5 0
1929-02-17 Racing Santander W 3-1 1638 1619 66.5% 17.3% 16.1% +5.5 2
1929-02-17 @ Real Union L 1-3 1619 1638 16.1% 17.3% 66.5% -5.5 0
1929-02-24 Real Union D 1-1 1623 1643 63.1% 17.5% 19.4% -1.9 1
1929-02-24 @ Arenas de Getxo D 1-1 1643 1623 19.4% 17.5% 63.1% +1.9 3
1929-02-24 Europa W 3-1 1616 1633 63.5% 17.5% 19.1% +6.4 4
1929-02-24 @ Espanol L 1-3 1633 1616 19.1% 17.5% 63.5% -6.4 2
1929-02-24 Athletic Bilbao L 0-4 1614 1672 59.3% 17.6% 23.1% -38.0 0
1929-02-24 @ Racing Santander W 4-0 1672 1614 23.1% 17.6% 59.3% +38.0 5
1929-02-24 Atletico Madrid W 2-1 1668 1619 69.0% 17.2% 13.9% +2.8 6
1929-02-24 @ Real Madrid L 1-2 1619 1668 13.9% 17.2% 69.0% -2.8 2
1929-02-24 Barcelona W 3-0 1672 1652 66.6% 17.3% 16.1% +9.2 5
1929-02-24 @ Real Sociedad L 0-3 1652 1672 16.1% 17.3% 66.6% -9.2 2
1929-03-03 Europa W 2-0 1710 1626 71.3% 17.0% 11.7% +4.7 7
1929-03-03 @ Athletic Bilbao L 0-2 1626 1710 11.7% 17.0% 71.3% -4.7 2
1929-03-03 Arenas de Getxo D 2-2 1643 1621 66.8% 17.3% 15.9% -1.7 3
1929-03-03 @ Barcelona D 2-2 1621 1643 15.9% 17.3% 66.8% +1.7 2
1929-03-03 Racing Santander W 3-0 1623 1576 68.8% 17.2% 14.1% +8.1 6
1929-03-03 @ Espanol L 0-3 1576 1623 14.1% 17.2% 68.8% -8.1 0
1929-03-03 Real Sociedad W 2-1 1671 1681 64.1% 17.4% 18.5% +3.6 8
1929-03-03 @ Real Madrid L 1-2 1681 1671 18.5% 17.4% 64.1% -3.6 5
1929-03-03 Atletico Madrid L 1-2 1645 1616 67.4% 17.3% 15.3% -11.4 3
1929-03-03 @ Real Union W 2-1 1616 1645 15.3% 17.3% 67.4% +11.4 4
1929-03-10 Athletic Bilbao W 1-0 1623 1714 55.6% 17.6% 26.8% +5.3 4
1929-03-10 @ Arenas de Getxo L 0-1 1714 1623 26.8% 17.6% 55.6% -5.3 7
1929-03-10 Barcelona W 4-1 1628 1641 63.7% 17.5% 18.8% +9.0 6
1929-03-10 @ Atletico Madrid L 1-4 1641 1628 18.8% 17.5% 63.7% -9.0 3
1929-03-10 Real Union D 3-3 1621 1634 63.8% 17.4% 18.7% -1.2 3
1929-03-10 @ Europa D 3-3 1634 1621 18.7% 17.4% 63.8% +1.2 4
1929-03-10 Real Madrid L 1-3 1568 1675 53.7% 17.7% 28.7% -15.8 0
1929-03-10 @ Racing Santander W 3-1 1675 1568 28.7% 17.7% 53.7% +15.8 10
1929-03-10 Espanol D 1-1 1677 1631 68.8% 17.2% 14.1% -2.4 6
1929-03-10 @ Real Sociedad D 1-1 1631 1677 14.1% 17.2% 68.8% +2.4 7
1929-03-24 Real Sociedad W 3-0 1628 1675 60.5% 17.6% 21.9% +12.2 6
1929-03-24 @ Arenas de Getxo L 0-3 1675 1628 21.9% 17.6% 60.5% -12.2 6
1929-03-24 Racing Santander W 4-0 1637 1552 71.4% 17.0% 11.6% +8.9 8
1929-03-24 @ Atletico Madrid L 0-4 1552 1637 11.6% 17.0% 71.4% -8.9 0
1929-03-24 Europa W 5-2 1632 1620 66.0% 17.4% 16.6% +7.0 5
1929-03-24 @ Barcelona L 2-5 1620 1632 16.6% 17.4% 66.0% -7.0 3
1929-03-24 Real Madrid W 4-0 1633 1691 59.4% 17.6% 23.1% +16.7 9
1929-03-24 @ Espanol L 0-4 1691 1633 23.1% 17.6% 59.4% -16.7 10
1929-03-24 Athletic Bilbao W 6-3 1635 1709 57.6% 17.6% 24.8% +9.2 6
1929-03-24 @ Real Union L 3-6 1709 1635 24.8% 17.6% 57.6% -9.2 7
1929-03-31 Barcelona W 5-1 1700 1639 69.8% 17.1% 13.1% +8.3 9
1929-03-31 @ Athletic Bilbao L 1-5 1639 1700 13.1% 17.1% 69.8% -8.3 5
1929-03-31 Arenas de Getxo L 1-2 1650 1641 65.8% 17.4% 16.9% -11.1 9
1929-03-31 @ Espanol W 2-1 1641 1650 16.9% 17.4% 65.8% +11.1 8
1929-03-31 Atletico Madrid W 4-1 1613 1646 61.9% 17.5% 20.5% +9.7 5
1929-03-31 @ Europa L 1-4 1646 1613 20.5% 17.5% 61.9% -9.7 8
1929-03-31 Real Union W 2-0 1674 1644 67.4% 17.3% 15.3% +6.1 12
1929-03-31 @ Real Madrid L 0-2 1644 1674 15.3% 17.3% 67.4% -6.1 6
1929-03-31 Racing Santander W 8-1 1663 1543 73.5% 16.7% 9.7% +10.4 8
1929-03-31 @ Real Sociedad L 1-8 1543 1663 9.7% 16.7% 73.5% -10.4 0
1929-04-07 Real Madrid W 3-2 1652 1680 62.3% 17.5% 20.2% +3.7 10
1929-04-07 @ Arenas de Getxo L 2-3 1680 1652 20.2% 17.5% 62.3% -3.7 12
1929-04-07 Athletic Bilbao L 2-3 1636 1708 57.8% 17.6% 24.6% -9.2 8
1929-04-07 @ Atletico Madrid W 3-2 1708 1636 24.6% 17.6% 57.8% +9.2 11
1929-04-07 Espanol W 1-0 1631 1639 64.3% 17.4% 18.3% +3.8 7
1929-04-07 @ Barcelona L 0-1 1639 1631 18.3% 17.4% 64.3% -3.8 9
1929-04-07 Europa W 3-2 1533 1623 55.7% 17.6% 26.7% +4.7 2
1929-04-07 @ Racing Santander L 2-3 1623 1533 26.7% 17.6% 55.7% -4.7 5
1929-04-07 Real Sociedad L 2-3 1638 1673 61.7% 17.5% 20.8% -9.9 6
1929-04-07 @ Real Union W 3-2 1673 1638 20.8% 17.5% 61.7% +9.9 10
1929-04-21 Racing Santander W 2-1 1655 1537 73.5% 16.7% 9.8% +2.0 12
1929-04-21 @ Arenas de Getxo L 1-2 1537 1655 9.8% 16.7% 73.5% -2.0 2
1929-04-21 Atletico Madrid W 3-2 1635 1627 65.7% 17.4% 17.0% +3.2 11
1929-04-21 @ Espanol L 2-3 1627 1635 17.0% 17.4% 65.7% -3.2 8
1929-04-21 Real Sociedad W 4-3 1618 1683 58.6% 17.6% 23.8% +4.2 7
1929-04-21 @ Europa L 3-4 1683 1618 23.8% 17.6% 58.6% -4.2 10
1929-04-21 Athletic Bilbao W 5-1 1676 1717 61.1% 17.5% 21.4% +13.0 14
1929-04-21 @ Real Madrid L 1-5 1717 1676 21.4% 17.5% 61.1% -13.0 11
1929-04-21 Barcelona L 1-2 1628 1635 64.4% 17.4% 18.2% -10.9 6
1929-04-21 @ Real Union W 2-1 1635 1628 18.2% 17.4% 64.4% +10.9 9
1929-04-28 Real Sociedad W 4-2 1704 1679 67.1% 17.3% 15.6% +4.8 13
1929-04-28 @ Athletic Bilbao L 2-4 1679 1704 15.6% 17.3% 67.1% -4.8 10
1929-04-28 Arenas de Getxo L 1-2 1624 1657 61.8% 17.5% 20.7% -10.4 8
1929-04-28 @ Atletico Madrid W 2-1 1657 1624 20.7% 17.5% 61.8% +10.4 14
1929-04-28 Racing Santander W 5-1 1646 1535 73.0% 16.8% 10.2% +6.5 11
1929-04-28 @ Barcelona L 1-5 1535 1646 10.2% 16.8% 73.0% -6.5 2
1929-04-28 Real Madrid W 5-2 1622 1689 58.4% 17.6% 24.0% +9.7 9
1929-04-28 @ Europa L 2-5 1689 1622 24.0% 17.6% 58.4% -9.7 14
1929-04-28 Espanol W 4-3 1618 1638 63.1% 17.5% 19.4% +3.5 8
1929-04-28 @ Real Union L 3-4 1638 1618 19.4% 17.5% 63.1% -3.5 11
1929-05-05 Europa D 2-2 1668 1632 67.9% 17.2% 14.8% -1.7 15
1929-05-05 @ Arenas de Getxo D 2-2 1632 1668 14.8% 17.2% 67.9% +1.7 10
1929-05-05 Athletic Bilbao W 4-1 1635 1709 57.5% 17.6% 24.9% +11.5 13
1929-05-05 @ Espanol L 1-4 1709 1635 24.9% 17.6% 57.5% -11.5 13
1929-05-05 Real Union L 1-3 1529 1621 55.5% 17.6% 26.9% -16.2 2
1929-05-05 @ Racing Santander W 3-1 1621 1529 26.9% 17.6% 55.5% +16.2 10
1929-05-09 Espanol L 0-3 1634 1646 63.9% 17.4% 18.7% -31.3 10
1929-05-09 @ Europa W 3-0 1646 1634 18.7% 17.4% 63.9% +31.3 15
1929-05-09 Barcelona L 0-1 1680 1652 67.3% 17.3% 15.4% -12.0 14
1929-05-09 @ Real Madrid W 1-0 1652 1680 15.4% 17.3% 67.3% +12.0 13
1929-05-09 Atletico Madrid D 3-3 1674 1613 69.8% 17.1% 13.1% -1.6 11
1929-05-09 @ Real Sociedad D 3-3 1613 1674 13.1% 17.1% 69.8% +1.6 9
1929-05-12 Racing Santander D 0-0 1698 1513 76.8% 16.2% 6.9% -3.5 14
1929-05-12 @ Athletic Bilbao D 0-0 1513 1698 6.9% 16.2% 76.8% +3.6 3
1929-05-12 Arenas de Getxo W 7-1 1637 1666 62.3% 17.5% 20.2% +17.9 12
1929-05-12 @ Real Union L 1-7 1666 1637 20.2% 17.5% 62.3% -17.9 15
1929-05-19 Real Union W 3-1 1615 1655 61.1% 17.5% 21.3% +7.1 11
1929-05-19 @ Atletico Madrid L 1-3 1655 1615 21.3% 17.5% 61.1% -7.1 12
1929-05-19 Real Madrid W 5-4 1672 1668 65.4% 17.4% 17.2% +3.1 13
1929-05-19 @ Real Sociedad L 4-5 1668 1672 17.2% 17.4% 65.4% -3.1 14
1929-05-26 Arenas de Getxo L 2-3 1694 1648 68.7% 17.2% 14.1% -11.0 14
1929-05-26 @ Athletic Bilbao W 3-2 1648 1694 14.1% 17.2% 68.7% +11.0 17
1929-05-26 Atletico Madrid W 4-0 1664 1622 68.4% 17.2% 14.3% +10.8 15
1929-05-26 @ Barcelona L 0-4 1622 1664 14.3% 17.2% 68.4% -10.8 11
1929-05-26 Real Sociedad D 1-1 1677 1675 65.1% 17.4% 17.5% -2.1 16
1929-05-26 @ Espanol D 1-1 1675 1677 17.5% 17.4% 65.1% +2.1 14
1929-05-26 Racing Santander D 2-2 1664 1516 75.1% 16.5% 8.4% -2.2 15
1929-05-26 @ Real Madrid D 2-2 1516 1664 8.4% 16.5% 75.1% +2.2 4
1929-05-26 Europa L 2-3 1648 1603 68.7% 17.2% 14.1% -11.0 12
1929-05-26 @ Real Union W 3-2 1603 1648 14.1% 17.2% 68.7% +11.0 12
1929-05-30 Real Madrid L 0-3 1611 1662 60.0% 17.6% 22.4% -29.4 11
1929-05-30 @ Atletico Madrid W 3-0 1662 1611 22.4% 17.6% 60.0% +29.4 17
1929-05-30 Real Sociedad W 1-0 1675 1677 64.7% 17.4% 17.8% +3.7 17
1929-05-30 @ Barcelona L 0-1 1677 1675 17.8% 17.4% 64.7% -3.7 14
1929-05-30 Athletic Bilbao D 1-1 1614 1683 58.1% 17.6% 24.3% -1.4 13
1929-05-30 @ Europa D 1-1 1683 1614 24.3% 17.6% 58.1% +1.4 15
1929-05-30 Espanol D 1-1 1518 1675 47.3% 17.7% 35.1% -0.5 5
1929-05-30 @ Racing Santander D 1-1 1675 1518 35.1% 17.7% 47.3% +0.5 17
1929-06-02 Real Union W 2-1 1684 1637 68.8% 17.2% 14.0% +2.8 17
1929-06-02 @ Athletic Bilbao L 1-2 1637 1684 14.0% 17.2% 68.8% -2.8 12
1929-06-02 Barcelona D 1-1 1612 1679 58.4% 17.6% 24.0% -1.5 14
1929-06-02 @ Europa D 1-1 1679 1612 24.0% 17.6% 58.4% +1.5 18
1929-06-02 Atletico Madrid L 1-2 1518 1582 58.7% 17.6% 23.7% -9.9 5
1929-06-02 @ Racing Santander W 2-1 1582 1518 23.7% 17.6% 58.7% +9.9 13
1929-06-02 Espanol W 2-0 1692 1676 66.3% 17.3% 16.3% +6.5 19
1929-06-02 @ Real Madrid L 0-2 1676 1692 16.3% 17.3% 66.3% -6.4 17
1929-06-02 Arenas de Getxo W 3-2 1674 1659 66.2% 17.3% 16.4% +3.1 16
1929-06-02 @ Real Sociedad L 2-3 1659 1674 16.4% 17.3% 66.2% -3.1 17
1929-06-09 Espanol W 3-0 1656 1669 63.8% 17.5% 18.8% +10.6 19
1929-06-09 @ Arenas de Getxo L 0-3 1669 1656 18.8% 17.5% 63.8% -10.6 17
1929-06-09 Europa W 5-4 1591 1611 63.2% 17.5% 19.3% +3.4 15
1929-06-09 @ Atletico Madrid L 4-5 1611 1591 19.3% 17.5% 63.2% -3.4 14
1929-06-09 Athletic Bilbao W 3-0 1680 1687 64.3% 17.4% 18.2% +10.3 20
1929-06-09 @ Barcelona L 0-3 1687 1680 18.2% 17.4% 64.3% -10.3 17
1929-06-09 Real Sociedad W 6-1 1508 1677 45.6% 17.7% 36.7% +25.4 7
1929-06-09 @ Racing Santander L 1-6 1677 1508 36.7% 17.7% 45.6% -25.4 16
1929-06-09 Real Madrid L 0-2 1634 1698 58.7% 17.6% 23.7% -19.8 12
1929-06-09 @ Real Union W 2-0 1698 1634 23.7% 17.6% 58.7% +19.8 21
1929-06-16 Atletico Madrid D 3-3 1677 1595 71.2% 17.0% 11.8% -1.6 18
1929-06-16 @ Athletic Bilbao D 3-3 1595 1677 11.8% 17.0% 71.2% +1.6 16
1929-06-16 Barcelona D 1-1 1659 1690 62.0% 17.5% 20.5% -1.8 18
1929-06-16 @ Espanol D 1-1 1690 1659 20.5% 17.5% 62.0% +1.8 21
1929-06-16 Racing Santander W 4-1 1607 1533 70.7% 17.0% 12.3% +6.0 16
1929-06-16 @ Europa L 1-4 1533 1607 12.3% 17.0% 70.7% -6.0 7
1929-06-16 Arenas de Getxo W 2-0 1718 1667 69.1% 17.2% 13.7% +5.5 23
1929-06-16 @ Real Madrid L 0-2 1667 1718 13.7% 17.2% 69.1% -5.5 19
1929-06-16 Real Union W 3-2 1651 1615 68.0% 17.2% 14.7% +2.8 18
1929-06-16 @ Real Sociedad L 2-3 1615 1651 14.7% 17.2% 68.0% -2.8 12
1929-06-23 Real Madrid W 2-0 1675 1723 60.4% 17.6% 22.1% +8.5 20
1929-06-23 @ Athletic Bilbao L 0-2 1723 1675 22.1% 17.6% 60.4% -8.5 23
1929-06-23 Espanol W 7-1 1597 1657 59.0% 17.6% 23.4% +20.4 18
1929-06-23 @ Atletico Madrid L 1-7 1657 1597 23.4% 17.6% 59.0% -20.4 18
1929-06-23 Real Union W 4-1 1692 1612 71.1% 17.0% 11.9% +5.8 23
1929-06-23 @ Barcelona L 1-4 1612 1692 11.9% 17.0% 71.1% -5.8 12
1929-06-23 Arenas de Getxo W 5-1 1527 1661 50.3% 17.7% 32.0% +18.5 9
1929-06-23 @ Racing Santander L 1-5 1661 1527 32.0% 17.7% 50.3% -18.5 19
1929-06-23 Europa W 5-4 1654 1613 68.3% 17.2% 14.4% +2.6 20
1929-06-23 @ Real Sociedad L 4-5 1613 1654 14.4% 17.2% 68.3% -2.6 16
1929-06-30 Barcelona L 0-2 1643 1698 59.6% 17.6% 22.8% -20.1 19
1929-06-30 @ Arenas de Getxo W 2-0 1698 1643 22.8% 17.6% 59.6% +20.1 25

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1929-05-26 14.10% Arenas de Getxo 1648 3 @ Athletic Bilbao 1694 2
2 1929-05-26 14.13% Europa 1603 3 @ Real Union 1648 2
3 1929-03-03 15.34% Atletico Madrid 1616 2 @ Real Union 1645 1
4 1929-05-09 15.44% Barcelona 1652 1 @ Real Madrid 1680 0
5 1929-02-17 16.61% Real Sociedad 1639 3 @ Atletico Madrid 1652 0
6 1929-03-31 16.88% Arenas de Getxo 1641 2 @ Espanol 1650 1
7 1929-02-17 17.16% Real Madrid 1657 2 @ Barcelona 1663 1
8 1929-02-10 17.64% Atletico Madrid 1641 3 @ Arenas de Getxo 1641 2
9 1929-02-12 17.64% Barcelona 1641 2 @ Racing Santander 1641 0
10 1929-04-21 18.17% Barcelona 1635 2 @ Real Union 1628 1
11 1929-05-09 18.69% Espanol 1646 3 @ Europa 1634 0
12 1929-04-28 20.69% Arenas de Getxo 1657 2 @ Atletico Madrid 1624 1
13 1929-04-07 20.76% Real Sociedad 1673 3 @ Real Union 1638 2
14 1929-05-30 22.41% Real Madrid 1662 3 @ Atletico Madrid 1611 0
15 1929-06-30 22.84% Barcelona 1698 2 @ Arenas de Getxo 1643 0
16 1929-02-24 23.10% Athletic Bilbao 1672 4 @ Racing Santander 1614 0
17 1929-06-02 23.71% Atletico Madrid 1582 2 @ Racing Santander 1518 1
18 1929-06-09 23.71% Real Madrid 1698 2 @ Real Union 1634 0
19 1929-04-07 24.63% Athletic Bilbao 1708 3 @ Atletico Madrid 1636 2
20 1929-05-05 26.89% Real Union 1621 3 @ Racing Santander 1529 1
21 1929-03-10 28.66% Real Madrid 1675 3 @ Racing Santander 1568 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1929-02-24 37.97 Athletic Bilbao 4 1672 23.10% @ Racing Santander 0 1614 59.31% 17.59%
2 1929-02-17 32.35 Real Sociedad 3 1639 16.61% @ Atletico Madrid 0 1652 66.04% 17.35%
3 1929-05-09 31.28 Espanol 3 1646 18.69% @ Europa 0 1634 63.86% 17.45%
4 1929-05-30 29.40 Real Madrid 3 1662 22.41% @ Atletico Madrid 0 1611 60.02% 17.57%
5 1929-02-17 28.41 @ Athletic Bilbao 9 1643 64.85% Espanol 0 1645 17.74% 17.41%
6 1929-06-09 25.38 @ Racing Santander 6 1508 45.63% Real Sociedad 1 1677 36.71% 17.66%
7 1929-02-12 21.91 Barcelona 2 1641 17.64% @ Racing Santander 0 1641 64.96% 17.41%
8 1929-06-23 20.39 @ Atletico Madrid 7 1597 59.04% Espanol 1 1657 23.36% 17.59%
9 1929-06-30 20.10 Barcelona 2 1698 22.84% @ Arenas de Getxo 0 1643 59.58% 17.58%
10 1929-06-09 19.80 Real Madrid 2 1698 23.71% @ Real Union 0 1634 58.69% 17.60%
11 1929-06-23 18.48 @ Racing Santander 5 1527 50.30% Arenas de Getxo 1 1661 32.02% 17.68%
12 1929-05-12 17.92 @ Real Union 7 1637 62.29% Arenas de Getxo 1 1666 20.20% 17.51%
13 1929-03-24 16.69 @ Espanol 4 1633 59.35% Real Madrid 0 1691 23.06% 17.59%
14 1929-05-05 16.25 Real Union 3 1621 26.89% @ Racing Santander 1 1529 55.46% 17.65%
15 1929-02-10 16.16 @ Real Madrid 5 1641 64.96% Europa 0 1641 17.64% 17.41%
16 1929-03-10 15.76 Real Madrid 3 1675 28.66% @ Racing Santander 1 1568 53.68% 17.67%
17 1929-04-21 13.02 @ Real Madrid 5 1676 61.05% Athletic Bilbao 1 1717 21.40% 17.55%
18 1929-03-24 12.22 @ Arenas de Getxo 3 1628 60.52% Real Sociedad 0 1675 21.92% 17.56%
19 1929-05-09 12.05 Barcelona 1 1652 15.44% @ Real Madrid 0 1680 67.27% 17.29%
20 1929-05-05 11.53 @ Espanol 4 1635 57.48% Athletic Bilbao 1 1709 24.89% 17.62%
21 1929-03-03 11.37 Atletico Madrid 2 1616 15.34% @ Real Union 1 1645 67.39% 17.28%
22 1929-03-31 11.10 Arenas de Getxo 2 1641 16.88% @ Espanol 1 1650 65.75% 17.37%
23 1929-02-17 11.04 Real Madrid 2 1657 17.16% @ Barcelona 1 1663 65.46% 17.38%
24 1929-05-26 11.01 Arenas de Getxo 3 1648 14.10% @ Athletic Bilbao 2 1694 68.71% 17.19%
25 1929-05-26 11.01 Europa 3 1603 14.13% @ Real Union 2 1648 68.68% 17.20%