Home / Leagues / Scotland / Premiership / 2019-20

2019-20 Premiership Season

179 games

Final

Champion

Celtic

80 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Celtic

11.11 points above expected

80 points · 68.89 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Heart of Midlothian

11.13 points below expected

23 points · 34.13 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Celtic 30 26 2 2 80 89 19 +70 68.89 +11.11
2 Rangers 29 21 4 4 67 64 19 +45 63.79 +3.21
3 Motherwell 30 14 4 12 46 41 38 +3 41.17 +4.83
4 Aberdeen 30 12 9 9 45 40 36 +4 47.97 -2.97
5 Livingston 30 10 9 11 39 41 39 +2 37.73 +1.27
6 Hibernian 30 9 10 11 37 42 49 -7 43.26 -6.26
7 St. Johnstone 29 8 12 9 36 28 46 -18 29.83 +6.17
8 Kilmarnock 30 9 6 15 33 31 41 -10 43.91 -10.91
9 St. Mirren 30 7 8 15 29 24 41 -17 28.59 +0.41
10 Ross County 30 7 8 15 29 29 60 -31 30.18 -1.18
11 Hamilton Academical 30 6 9 15 27 30 50 -20 24.98 +2.02
12 Heart of Midlothian 30 4 11 15 23 31 52 -21 34.13 -11.13

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Celtic 1991 80 73.03 +6.97 87.4% 46 62 69 73 78 83 94
Rangers 1919 67 69.31 -2.31 39.0% 45 58 65 69 74 80 97
Aberdeen 1741 45 52.11 -7.11 18.2% 26 40 47 52 57 64 80
Hibernian 1702 37 47.40 -10.40 8.5% 20 36 43 47 52 59 72
Motherwell 1689 46 45.31 +0.69 57.0% 21 34 40 45 50 57 72
Livingston 1686 39 41.87 -2.87 37.3% 18 30 37 42 47 54 71
Kilmarnock 1679 33 48.05 -15.05 2.0% 24 36 43 48 53 60 73
St. Johnstone 1624 36 35.35 +0.65 57.3% 14 24 31 35 40 47 60
Heart of Midlothian 1615 23 38.27 -15.27 1.4% 13 27 34 38 43 50 67
St. Mirren 1594 29 32.73 -3.73 32.2% 9 22 28 33 37 44 60
Ross County 1578 29 34.32 -5.32 24.4% 10 23 30 34 39 46 57
Hamilton Academical 1559 27 29.12 -2.12 41.5% 6 19 24 29 33 40 56

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ABE CEL HA HOM HIB KIL LIV MOT RAN RC SJ SM
Aberdeen
0-0-3
2.33
3-0-0
6.02
1-1-0
3.61
1-1-1
4.85
1-2-0
4.18
2-0-0
3.37
1-0-1
3.11
0-2-1
2.43
2-0-1
5.83
0-2-1
5.92
1-1-1
5.71
Celtic
3-0-0
5.98
3-0-0
7.38
3-0-0
7.09
1-1-0
4.26
3-0-0
6.67
1-1-1
6.74
3-0-0
6.40
1-0-1
2.95
3-0-0
7.21
2-0-0
4.60
3-0-0
7.46
Hamilton Academical
0-0-3
2.29
0-0-3
1.18
1-2-0
3.00
0-1-1
1.75
2-1-0
2.56
1-1-1
3.10
1-1-1
2.86
1-0-2
1.18
0-1-1
2.27
0-0-2
2.43
0-2-1
3.53
Heart of Midlothian
0-1-1
1.88
0-0-3
1.41
0-2-1
5.23
2-0-1
2.96
0-0-3
3.53
0-2-0
2.74
0-1-2
3.69
1-1-1
1.73
0-2-0
2.88
0-1-2
4.39
1-1-1
4.50
Hibernian
1-1-1
3.35
0-1-1
1.31
1-1-0
3.76
1-0-2
5.28
1-1-1
3.83
0-2-1
4.76
1-1-1
4.21
0-0-3
2.20
1-1-1
5.46
1-1-0
3.37
2-1-0
5.66
Kilmarnock
0-2-1
4.01
0-0-3
1.74
0-1-2
5.72
3-0-0
4.67
1-1-1
4.37
1-0-1
3.40
0-0-2
3.03
1-0-2
2.41
1-1-1
5.45
1-1-1
5.12
1-0-1
3.68
Livingston
0-0-2
2.11
1-1-1
1.68
1-1-1
5.12
0-2-0
2.72
1-2-0
3.44
1-0-1
2.08
1-1-1
4.07
0-0-3
1.86
2-0-1
4.60
1-1-1
4.56
2-1-0
5.20
Motherwell
1-0-1
2.36
0-0-3
1.96
1-1-1
5.40
2-1-0
4.51
1-1-1
3.98
2-0-0
2.43
1-1-1
4.12
0-0-2
1.38
2-0-1
5.35
2-0-1
4.80
2-0-1
5.42
Rangers
1-2-0
5.87
1-0-1
2.51
2-0-1
7.37
1-1-1
6.69
3-0-0
6.12
2-0-1
5.91
3-0-0
6.51
2-0-0
4.18
3-0-0
6.95
1-1-0
4.24
2-0-0
4.60
Ross County
1-0-2
2.45
0-0-3
1.31
1-1-0
3.20
0-2-0
2.58
1-1-1
2.78
1-1-1
2.80
1-0-2
3.61
1-0-2
2.88
0-0-3
1.52
0-3-0
4.20
1-0-1
2.84
St. Johnstone
1-2-0
2.38
0-0-2
1.04
2-0-0
3.03
2-1-0
3.81
0-1-1
2.11
1-1-1
3.11
1-1-1
3.65
1-0-2
3.40
0-1-1
1.33
0-3-0
4.00
0-2-1
4.13
St. Mirren
1-1-1
2.57
0-0-3
1.11
1-2-0
4.68
1-1-1
3.70
0-1-2
2.61
1-0-1
1.82
0-1-2
3.03
1-0-2
2.82
0-0-2
1.05
1-0-1
2.62
1-2-0
4.06

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.91 +8.8
Allowed 0.82 -12.5
Differential 0.96 +5.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.94%8.38%4.75%3.63%1.96%1.96%29.61%
18.38%7.26%9.22%3.63%1.40%0.28%30.17%
24.75%9.22%8.38%1.12%0.28%0.56%24.30%
33.63%3.63%1.12%1.12%9.50%
41.96%1.40%0.28%3.63%
5+1.96%0.28%0.56%2.79%
Total29.61%30.17%24.30%9.50%3.63%2.79%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.37 1.37 +0.00
SD 1.29 1.29 2.01
CV 0.94 0.94
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 179

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%10.00%3.33%3.33%3.33%30.00%
16.67%13.33%10.00%30.00%
23.33%6.67%6.67%16.67%
310.00%10.00%3.33%23.33%
4
5+
Total30.00%40.00%20.00%3.33%3.33%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.20 +0.13
SD 1.15 1.21 1.89
CV 0.87 1.01
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%3.33%
13.33%3.33%3.33%10.00%
216.67%13.33%3.33%33.33%
36.67%13.33%20.00%
410.00%6.67%16.67%
5+13.33%3.33%16.67%
Total50.00%36.67%13.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.97 0.63 +2.33
SD 1.59 0.72 1.95
CV 0.53 1.13
Max 7 2 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%16.67%3.33%3.33%33.33%
16.67%6.67%6.67%10.00%3.33%33.33%
23.33%10.00%13.33%3.33%3.33%33.33%
3
4
5+
Total20.00%33.33%20.00%16.67%6.67%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.67 -0.67
SD 0.83 1.35 1.47
CV 0.83 0.81
Max 2 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%16.67%6.67%3.33%6.67%46.67%
113.33%3.33%3.33%20.00%
26.67%6.67%10.00%23.33%
33.33%3.33%6.67%
4
5+3.33%3.33%
Total13.33%40.00%20.00%20.00%6.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.73 -0.70
SD 1.25 1.31 1.66
CV 1.21 0.76
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%10.00%6.67%20.00%
13.33%13.33%10.00%6.67%3.33%36.67%
23.33%10.00%16.67%30.00%
36.67%3.33%10.00%
43.33%3.33%
5+
Total16.67%30.00%36.67%13.33%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.40 1.63 -0.23
SD 1.04 1.25 1.89
CV 0.74 0.76
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%16.67%3.33%6.67%36.67%
110.00%13.33%10.00%33.33%
23.33%6.67%10.00%20.00%
33.33%3.33%3.33%10.00%
4
5+
Total26.67%26.67%30.00%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.37 -0.33
SD 1.00 1.07 1.47
CV 0.97 0.78
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%6.67%10.00%3.33%30.00%
16.67%6.67%13.33%3.33%30.00%
26.67%6.67%10.00%23.33%
33.33%3.33%6.67%
43.33%3.33%3.33%10.00%
5+
Total30.00%23.33%36.67%6.67%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.37 1.30 +0.07
SD 1.27 1.09 1.74
CV 0.93 0.84
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%3.33%6.67%3.33%3.33%26.67%
113.33%3.33%16.67%3.33%36.67%
23.33%10.00%3.33%16.67%
36.67%3.33%3.33%13.33%
43.33%3.33%6.67%
5+
Total36.67%23.33%26.67%6.67%3.33%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.37 1.27 +0.10
SD 1.22 1.31 1.95
CV 0.89 1.04
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.45%3.45%3.45%10.34%
117.24%3.45%6.90%27.59%
210.34%13.79%6.90%31.03%
33.45%6.90%10.34%
46.90%6.90%
5+10.34%3.45%13.79%
Total51.72%31.03%17.24%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.21 0.66 +1.55
SD 1.61 0.77 1.96
CV 0.73 1.17
Max 6 2 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 29

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%3.33%3.33%10.00%6.67%3.33%36.67%
13.33%6.67%6.67%6.67%10.00%33.33%
23.33%13.33%10.00%26.67%
33.33%3.33%
4
5+
Total20.00%23.33%20.00%16.67%16.67%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.97 2.00 -1.03
SD 0.89 1.58 2.06
CV 0.92 0.79
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.34%10.34%3.45%3.45%6.90%3.45%37.93%
117.24%13.79%3.45%34.48%
26.90%13.79%20.69%
33.45%3.45%6.90%
4
5+
Total27.59%31.03%20.69%6.90%10.34%3.45%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.97 1.59 -0.62
SD 0.94 1.64 1.92
CV 0.98 1.03
Max 3 7 +1
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 29

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%13.33%6.67%3.33%3.33%43.33%
113.33%3.33%20.00%36.67%
23.33%6.67%3.33%3.33%16.67%
33.33%3.33%
4
5+
Total33.33%23.33%30.00%6.67%6.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.80 1.37 -0.57
SD 0.85 1.38 1.45
CV 1.06 1.01
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 30

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

No data available.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Celtic 80 68.89 +11.11
2 St. Johnstone 36 29.83 +6.17
3 Motherwell 46 41.17 +4.83
4 Rangers 67 63.79 +3.21
5 Hamilton Academical 27 24.98 +2.02

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Heart of Midlothian 23 34.13 -11.13
2 Kilmarnock 33 43.91 -10.91
3 Hibernian 37 43.26 -6.26
4 Aberdeen 45 47.97 -2.97
5 Ross County 29 30.18 -1.18

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hamilton Academical 2 Mar 4 – Mar 7 1 in 68
2 Celtic 11 Oct 19 – Dec 26 1 in 51
3 Livingston 4 Dec 29 – Feb 1 1 in 25
4 Motherwell 3 Aug 24 – Sep 14 1 in 22
5 Hibernian 3 Nov 9 – Nov 26 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kilmarnock 7 Dec 7 – Jan 25 1 in 1,027
2 Heart of Midlothian 5 Dec 7 – Dec 26 1 in 82
3 Hibernian 3 Aug 31 – Sep 22 1 in 25
4 Motherwell 3 Feb 1 – Feb 12 1 in 13
5 Livingston 3 Sep 14 – Sep 28 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 St. Johnstone 7 Feb 1 – Mar 7 1 in 97
2 Hibernian 9 Sep 28 – Nov 30 1 in 50
3 Hamilton Academical 4 Feb 15 – Mar 7 1 in 48
4 Rangers 16 Sep 14 – Jan 22 1 in 21
5 Heart of Midlothian 4 Dec 29 – Feb 1 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hibernian 10 Aug 11 – Oct 30 1 in 139
2 Kilmarnock 9 Nov 30 – Jan 25 1 in 92
3 Heart of Midlothian 10 Nov 23 – Jan 22 1 in 35
4 Aberdeen 5 Dec 29 – Feb 5 1 in 26
5 Motherwell 6 Jan 25 – Feb 25 1 in 25

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team123456789101112
Celtic66.08%31.48%2.08%0.30%0.04%0.02%
Rangers33.09%60.06%5.44%1.08%0.23%0.09%0.01%
Motherwell0.04%0.70%11.63%16.36%17.88%16.78%14.02%9.83%6.66%3.76%1.73%0.61%
Aberdeen0.60%4.32%38.58%22.38%14.53%9.17%5.37%2.71%1.54%0.55%0.19%0.06%
Livingston0.32%5.30%9.66%12.52%15.55%17.14%14.56%11.28%7.40%4.21%2.06%
Hibernian0.11%1.29%15.79%21.46%18.97%15.68%10.97%7.43%4.39%2.55%1.05%0.31%
St. Johnstone0.01%0.79%1.86%4.10%6.33%9.93%13.83%17.19%17.40%16.45%12.11%
Kilmarnock0.08%1.68%18.30%20.69%19.61%15.10%10.90%6.54%3.70%2.23%0.92%0.25%
St. Mirren0.21%0.73%1.93%3.95%6.72%10.50%14.54%18.37%22.42%20.63%
Ross County0.02%0.37%1.38%2.74%5.18%7.96%12.57%15.35%19.13%19.41%15.89%
Hamilton Academical0.08%0.20%0.69%1.49%3.16%5.35%9.07%14.69%23.55%41.72%
Heart of Midlothian0.12%1.43%3.90%6.76%10.66%13.82%16.68%16.28%13.92%10.07%6.36%
No playoff sim data.

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim mean data.
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
No playoff-sim percentile data.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+13.97%
Slight Edge
44.13%25.70%30.17%
Elo Value
Home Edge
155 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
048.84400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.37 goals
Neutral
-2+0.32+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.8
One-Team Race
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
66%
Celtic, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.43/gm
Comfortable
00.270.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.25 * Some Luck: 5.25 to 7.88 * Lucky: 7.88 to 10.51 * Wild Swing: 10.51 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.15 * Close: 1.15 to 1.72 * Off: 1.72 to 2.29 * Way Off: 2.29 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.90 points
Some Luck
06.5716
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.67
Close
01.433
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
98.55%
Celtic
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
3.78%
Heart of Midlothian
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
2.06
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
64%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 93%
92%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
63%
Very Frequent
0%55%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Frequent
0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.56
Predictable
00.582
Matchup Imbalance
0.40
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.13
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.65
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Chalky
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
16%
As Expected
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.21
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.05
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.086
Well Within Noise
00.1230.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Celtic 100%
Rangers 100%
Aberdeen 99.94% 0.06%
Kilmarnock 99.75% 0.25%
Hibernian 99.69% 0.31%
Motherwell 99.39% 0.61%
Livingston 97.94% 2.06%
Heart of Midlothian 93.64% 6.36%
St. Johnstone 87.89% 12.11%
Ross County 84.11% 15.89%
St. Mirren 79.37% 20.63%
Hamilton Academical 58.28% 41.72%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2019-08-03 Hamilton Academical W 3-0 1634 1570 51.6% 25.6% 22.8% +12.9 3
2019-08-03 @ Ross County L 0-3 1570 1634 22.8% 25.6% 51.6% -12.9 0
2019-08-03 Motherwell D 0-0 1643 1661 40.7% 27.1% 32.1% -0.3 1
2019-08-03 @ Livingston D 0-0 1661 1643 32.1% 27.1% 40.7% +0.3 1
2019-08-03 St. Johnstone W 7-0 1871 1651 68.8% 19.2% 12.0% +14.6 3
2019-08-03 @ Celtic L 0-7 1651 1871 12.0% 19.2% 68.8% -14.6 0
2019-08-03 St. Mirren W 1-0 1737 1610 59.1% 23.3% 17.5% +3.7 3
2019-08-03 @ Hibernian L 0-1 1610 1737 17.5% 23.3% 59.1% -3.7 0
2019-08-04 Heart of Midlothian W 3-2 1745 1673 52.7% 25.3% 22.0% +4.1 3
2019-08-04 @ Aberdeen L 2-3 1673 1745 22.0% 25.3% 52.7% -4.1 0
2019-08-04 Rangers L 1-2 1747 1834 31.1% 27.0% 41.9% -5.8 0
2019-08-04 @ Kilmarnock W 2-1 1834 1747 41.9% 27.0% 31.1% +5.8 3
2019-08-10 Celtic L 2-5 1662 1885 17.6% 23.4% 59.0% -7.3 1
2019-08-10 @ Motherwell W 5-2 1885 1662 59.0% 23.4% 17.6% +7.3 6
2019-08-10 Kilmarnock W 2-0 1557 1741 20.8% 24.9% 54.3% +17.7 3
2019-08-10 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-2 1741 1557 54.3% 24.9% 20.8% -17.7 0
2019-08-10 Livingston D 2-2 1636 1643 42.3% 27.0% 30.7% -0.3 1
2019-08-10 @ St. Johnstone D 2-2 1643 1636 30.7% 27.0% 42.3% +0.3 2
2019-08-10 Ross County D 0-0 1668 1647 46.2% 26.6% 27.3% -0.8 1
2019-08-10 @ Heart of Midlothian D 0-0 1647 1668 27.3% 26.6% 46.2% +0.8 4
2019-08-11 Aberdeen W 1-0 1607 1749 24.8% 26.1% 49.2% +8.7 3
2019-08-11 @ St. Mirren L 0-1 1749 1607 49.2% 26.1% 24.8% -8.7 3
2019-08-11 Hibernian W 6-1 1840 1741 55.9% 24.4% 19.7% +15.0 6
2019-08-11 @ Rangers L 1-6 1741 1840 19.7% 24.4% 55.9% -15.0 3
2019-08-24 Aberdeen D 0-0 1723 1740 40.9% 27.1% 32.0% -0.4 1
2019-08-24 @ Kilmarnock D 0-0 1740 1723 32.0% 27.1% 40.9% +0.4 4
2019-08-24 Livingston L 1-4 1648 1643 43.9% 26.9% 29.3% -18.3 4
2019-08-24 @ Ross County W 4-1 1643 1648 29.3% 26.9% 43.9% +18.3 5
2019-08-24 Motherwell L 1-3 1575 1654 32.2% 27.1% 40.7% -10.2 3
2019-08-24 @ Hamilton Academical W 3-1 1654 1575 40.7% 27.1% 32.2% +10.2 4
2019-08-24 St. Johnstone D 2-2 1726 1636 54.9% 24.7% 20.4% -1.0 4
2019-08-24 @ Hibernian D 2-2 1636 1726 20.4% 24.7% 54.9% +1.0 2
2019-08-25 Heart of Midlothian W 3-1 1893 1668 69.3% 18.9% 11.7% +3.8 9
2019-08-25 @ Celtic L 1-3 1668 1893 11.7% 18.9% 69.3% -3.8 1
2019-08-25 Rangers L 0-1 1615 1855 16.5% 22.7% 60.8% -3.4 3
2019-08-25 @ St. Mirren W 1-0 1855 1615 60.8% 22.7% 16.5% +3.4 9
2019-08-31 Hamilton Academical D 2-2 1664 1565 55.9% 24.4% 19.7% -1.1 2
2019-08-31 @ Heart of Midlothian D 2-2 1565 1664 19.7% 24.4% 55.9% +1.1 4
2019-08-31 Hibernian W 3-0 1665 1725 34.7% 27.2% 38.0% +19.4 7
2019-08-31 @ Motherwell L 0-3 1725 1665 38.0% 27.2% 34.7% -19.4 4
2019-08-31 Kilmarnock L 0-1 1637 1723 31.3% 27.1% 41.6% -6.1 2
2019-08-31 @ St. Johnstone W 1-0 1723 1637 41.6% 27.1% 31.3% +6.1 4
2019-08-31 Ross County W 3-0 1741 1630 57.3% 24.0% 18.7% +10.7 7
2019-08-31 @ Aberdeen L 0-3 1630 1741 18.7% 24.0% 57.3% -10.7 4
2019-08-31 St. Mirren W 2-1 1662 1612 49.8% 25.9% 24.2% +4.7 8
2019-08-31 @ Livingston L 1-2 1612 1662 24.2% 25.9% 49.8% -4.7 3
2019-09-01 Celtic L 0-2 1859 1897 37.9% 27.2% 34.8% -13.3 9
2019-09-01 @ Rangers W 2-0 1897 1859 34.8% 27.2% 37.9% +13.3 12
2019-09-14 Celtic L 0-1 1566 1910 10.8% 17.9% 71.3% -2.1 4
2019-09-14 @ Hamilton Academical W 1-0 1910 1566 71.3% 17.9% 10.8% +2.1 15
2019-09-14 Hibernian W 2-0 1729 1706 46.4% 26.5% 27.1% +10.3 7
2019-09-14 @ Kilmarnock L 0-2 1706 1729 27.1% 26.5% 46.4% -10.3 4
2019-09-14 Livingston W 3-1 1845 1666 64.7% 21.1% 14.2% +4.8 12
2019-09-14 @ Rangers L 1-3 1666 1845 14.2% 21.1% 64.7% -4.8 8
2019-09-14 Motherwell L 2-3 1663 1684 40.3% 27.1% 32.6% -6.6 2
2019-09-14 @ Heart of Midlothian W 3-2 1684 1663 32.6% 27.1% 40.3% +6.6 10
2019-09-14 St. Johnstone D 1-1 1751 1631 58.4% 23.6% 18.0% -1.6 8
2019-09-14 @ Aberdeen D 1-1 1631 1751 18.0% 23.6% 58.4% +1.6 3
2019-09-14 St. Mirren W 2-1 1619 1607 44.8% 26.8% 28.4% +5.4 7
2019-09-14 @ Ross County L 1-2 1607 1619 28.4% 26.8% 44.8% -5.4 3
2019-09-21 Aberdeen L 0-2 1661 1750 31.0% 27.0% 41.9% -11.5 8
2019-09-21 @ Livingston W 2-0 1750 1661 41.9% 27.0% 31.0% +11.5 11
2019-09-21 Hamilton Academical D 0-0 1602 1564 48.4% 26.2% 25.4% -1.0 4
2019-09-21 @ St. Mirren D 0-0 1564 1602 25.4% 26.2% 48.4% +1.0 5
2019-09-21 Ross County L 1-2 1691 1624 52.0% 25.5% 22.6% -8.5 10
2019-09-21 @ Motherwell W 2-1 1624 1691 22.6% 25.5% 52.0% +8.5 10
2019-09-22 Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1695 1656 48.5% 26.2% 25.3% -8.1 4
2019-09-22 @ Hibernian W 2-1 1656 1695 25.3% 26.2% 48.5% +8.1 5
2019-09-22 Kilmarnock W 3-1 1912 1739 64.1% 21.4% 14.5% +4.9 18
2019-09-22 @ Celtic L 1-3 1739 1912 14.5% 21.4% 64.1% -4.9 7
2019-09-22 Rangers L 0-4 1632 1850 18.1% 23.6% 58.3% -13.5 3
2019-09-22 @ St. Johnstone W 4-0 1850 1632 58.3% 23.6% 18.1% +13.5 15
2019-09-28 Aberdeen W 5-0 1863 1761 56.3% 24.3% 19.4% +17.9 18
2019-09-28 @ Rangers L 0-5 1761 1863 19.4% 24.3% 56.3% -17.9 11
2019-09-28 Celtic D 1-1 1687 1917 17.2% 23.1% 59.7% +1.7 5
2019-09-28 @ Hibernian D 1-1 1917 1687 59.7% 23.1% 17.2% -1.7 19
2019-09-28 Heart of Midlothian D 0-0 1601 1664 34.3% 27.2% 38.4% +0.2 5
2019-09-28 @ St. Mirren D 0-0 1664 1601 38.4% 27.2% 34.3% -0.2 6
2019-09-28 Livingston W 2-1 1565 1650 31.4% 27.1% 41.5% +7.2 8
2019-09-28 @ Hamilton Academical L 1-2 1650 1565 41.5% 27.1% 31.4% -7.2 8
2019-09-28 Motherwell L 0-1 1619 1682 34.3% 27.2% 38.5% -6.6 3
2019-09-28 @ St. Johnstone W 1-0 1682 1619 38.5% 27.2% 34.3% +6.6 13
2019-09-28 Ross County D 0-0 1734 1633 56.2% 24.3% 19.5% -1.6 8
2019-09-28 @ Kilmarnock D 0-0 1633 1734 19.5% 24.3% 56.2% +1.6 11
2019-10-05 Hibernian D 1-1 1743 1689 50.4% 25.8% 23.8% -1.0 12
2019-10-05 @ Aberdeen D 1-1 1689 1743 23.8% 25.8% 50.4% +1.0 6
2019-10-05 Kilmarnock L 0-1 1664 1733 33.6% 27.2% 39.2% -6.5 6
2019-10-05 @ Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 1733 1664 39.2% 27.2% 33.6% +6.5 11
2019-10-05 St. Johnstone D 2-2 1634 1612 46.2% 26.6% 27.2% -0.5 12
2019-10-05 @ Ross County D 2-2 1612 1634 27.2% 26.6% 46.2% +0.5 4
2019-10-05 St. Mirren W 2-0 1689 1601 54.5% 24.8% 20.6% +8.1 16
2019-10-05 @ Motherwell L 0-2 1601 1689 20.6% 24.8% 54.5% -8.1 5
2019-10-06 Celtic W 2-0 1643 1915 14.4% 21.3% 64.3% +20.3 11
2019-10-06 @ Livingston L 0-2 1915 1643 64.3% 21.3% 14.4% -20.3 19
2019-10-06 Hamilton Academical W 5-0 1881 1572 76.7% 15.0% 8.3% +6.8 21
2019-10-06 @ Rangers L 0-5 1572 1881 8.3% 15.0% 76.7% -6.8 8
2019-10-19 Aberdeen L 0-3 1697 1742 36.9% 27.3% 35.9% -19.0 16
2019-10-19 @ Motherwell W 3-0 1742 1697 35.9% 27.3% 36.9% +19.0 15
2019-10-19 Hibernian D 1-1 1565 1690 26.6% 26.5% 46.9% +0.8 9
2019-10-19 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-1 1690 1565 46.9% 26.5% 26.6% -0.8 7
2019-10-19 Livingston W 2-1 1739 1663 53.2% 25.2% 21.7% +4.2 14
2019-10-19 @ Kilmarnock L 1-2 1663 1739 21.7% 25.2% 53.2% -4.2 11
2019-10-19 Ross County W 6-0 1895 1634 72.6% 17.2% 10.1% +10.3 22
2019-10-19 @ Celtic L 0-6 1634 1895 10.1% 17.2% 72.6% -10.3 12
2019-10-19 St. Johnstone W 2-0 1593 1613 40.5% 27.1% 32.4% +11.9 8
2019-10-19 @ St. Mirren L 0-2 1613 1593 32.4% 27.1% 40.5% -11.9 4
2019-10-20 Rangers D 1-1 1658 1888 17.1% 23.1% 59.8% +1.7 7
2019-10-20 @ Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1888 1658 59.8% 23.1% 17.1% -1.7 22
2019-10-26 Hamilton Academical W 3-2 1601 1566 48.0% 26.3% 25.8% +4.7 7
2019-10-26 @ St. Johnstone L 2-3 1566 1601 25.8% 26.3% 48.0% -4.7 9
2019-10-26 Heart of Midlothian D 0-0 1659 1659 43.2% 26.9% 29.9% -0.5 12
2019-10-26 @ Livingston D 0-0 1659 1659 29.9% 26.9% 43.2% +0.5 8
2019-10-26 Ross County D 2-2 1689 1623 51.9% 25.5% 22.6% -0.8 8
2019-10-26 @ Hibernian D 2-2 1623 1689 22.6% 25.5% 51.9% +0.8 13
2019-10-26 St. Mirren W 1-0 1743 1605 60.4% 22.9% 16.7% +3.5 17
2019-10-26 @ Kilmarnock L 0-1 1605 1743 16.7% 22.9% 60.4% -3.5 8
2019-10-27 Celtic L 0-4 1761 1905 24.5% 26.0% 49.4% -18.0 15
2019-10-27 @ Aberdeen W 4-0 1905 1761 49.4% 26.0% 24.5% +18.0 25
2019-10-27 Motherwell W 2-1 1886 1678 67.7% 19.7% 12.6% +2.4 25
2019-10-27 @ Rangers L 1-2 1678 1886 12.6% 19.7% 67.7% -2.4 16
2019-10-30 Aberdeen L 0-1 1561 1743 20.9% 24.9% 54.1% -4.3 9
2019-10-30 @ Hamilton Academical W 1-0 1743 1561 54.1% 24.9% 20.9% +4.4 18
2019-10-30 Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 1606 1660 35.6% 27.3% 37.1% +7.0 10
2019-10-30 @ St. Johnstone L 0-1 1660 1606 37.1% 27.3% 35.6% -7.0 8
2019-10-30 Kilmarnock W 2-1 1675 1747 33.2% 27.2% 39.6% +6.9 19
2019-10-30 @ Motherwell L 1-2 1747 1675 39.6% 27.2% 33.2% -6.9 17
2019-10-30 Livingston D 2-2 1688 1658 47.3% 26.4% 26.3% -0.6 9
2019-10-30 @ Hibernian D 2-2 1658 1688 26.3% 26.4% 47.3% +0.6 13
2019-10-30 Rangers L 0-4 1624 1889 14.9% 21.6% 63.5% -11.0 13
2019-10-30 @ Ross County W 4-0 1889 1624 63.5% 21.6% 14.9% +11.0 28
2019-10-30 St. Mirren W 2-0 1923 1601 77.7% 14.4% 7.8% +2.7 28
2019-10-30 @ Celtic L 0-2 1601 1923 7.8% 14.4% 77.7% -2.7 8
2019-11-02 Kilmarnock W 3-0 1748 1740 44.3% 26.8% 28.9% +15.8 21
2019-11-02 @ Aberdeen L 0-3 1740 1748 28.9% 26.8% 44.3% -15.8 17
2019-11-02 Livingston W 2-1 1682 1659 46.4% 26.5% 27.0% +5.1 22
2019-11-02 @ Motherwell L 1-2 1659 1682 27.0% 26.5% 46.4% -5.1 13
2019-11-02 Ross County D 2-2 1557 1613 35.3% 27.2% 37.5% +0.0 10
2019-11-02 @ Hamilton Academical D 2-2 1613 1557 37.5% 27.2% 35.3% -0.1 14
2019-11-09 Aberdeen L 1-3 1613 1763 23.9% 25.9% 50.2% -8.0 14
2019-11-09 @ Ross County W 3-1 1763 1613 50.2% 25.9% 23.9% +8.0 24
2019-11-09 Hamilton Academical D 2-2 1724 1557 63.5% 21.6% 14.8% -1.5 18
2019-11-09 @ Kilmarnock D 2-2 1557 1724 14.8% 21.6% 63.5% +1.5 11
2019-11-09 Hibernian L 1-4 1613 1688 32.7% 27.2% 40.1% -14.6 10
2019-11-09 @ St. Johnstone W 4-1 1688 1613 40.1% 27.2% 32.7% +14.7 12
2019-11-09 St. Mirren W 5-2 1653 1599 50.4% 25.8% 23.8% +9.8 11
2019-11-09 @ Heart of Midlothian L 2-5 1599 1653 23.8% 25.8% 50.4% -9.8 8
2019-11-10 Motherwell W 2-0 1926 1688 70.6% 18.3% 11.1% +4.2 31
2019-11-10 @ Celtic L 0-2 1688 1926 11.1% 18.3% 70.6% -4.2 22
2019-11-10 Rangers L 0-2 1654 1900 16.1% 22.4% 61.5% -6.3 13
2019-11-10 @ Livingston W 2-0 1900 1654 61.5% 22.4% 16.1% +6.3 31
2019-11-23 Heart of Midlothian W 3-0 1723 1663 51.2% 25.7% 23.2% +13.1 21
2019-11-23 @ Kilmarnock L 0-3 1663 1723 23.2% 25.7% 51.2% -13.1 11
2019-11-23 Livingston W 4-0 1930 1647 74.5% 16.2% 9.3% +6.3 34
2019-11-23 @ Celtic L 0-4 1647 1930 9.3% 16.2% 74.5% -6.3 13
2019-11-23 Motherwell W 3-1 1702 1683 45.9% 26.6% 27.5% +9.0 15
2019-11-23 @ Hibernian L 1-3 1683 1702 27.5% 26.6% 45.9% -9.0 22
2019-11-23 Ross County W 2-1 1589 1605 41.0% 27.1% 31.9% +5.9 11
2019-11-23 @ St. Mirren L 1-2 1605 1589 31.9% 27.1% 41.0% -5.9 14
2019-11-24 Aberdeen D 1-1 1598 1771 21.7% 25.2% 53.1% +1.2 11
2019-11-24 @ St. Johnstone D 1-1 1771 1598 53.1% 25.2% 21.7% -1.2 25
2019-11-24 Rangers L 1-3 1558 1906 10.6% 17.8% 71.6% -3.4 11
2019-11-24 @ Hamilton Academical W 3-1 1906 1558 71.6% 17.8% 10.6% +3.4 34
2019-11-26 Hibernian L 1-2 1595 1711 27.5% 26.6% 45.8% -5.2 11
2019-11-26 @ St. Mirren W 2-1 1711 1595 45.8% 26.6% 27.5% +5.2 18
2019-11-30 Hamilton Academical D 0-0 1641 1555 54.4% 24.9% 20.8% -1.5 14
2019-11-30 @ Livingston D 0-0 1555 1641 20.8% 24.9% 54.4% +1.5 12
2019-11-30 Kilmarnock D 2-2 1717 1736 40.6% 27.1% 32.3% -0.2 19
2019-11-30 @ Hibernian D 2-2 1736 1717 32.3% 27.1% 40.6% +0.2 22
2019-11-30 St. Johnstone W 4-0 1674 1599 53.0% 25.2% 21.8% +16.2 25
2019-11-30 @ Motherwell L 0-4 1599 1674 21.8% 25.2% 53.0% -16.2 11
2019-11-30 St. Mirren W 2-1 1770 1590 64.9% 21.0% 14.1% +2.7 28
2019-11-30 @ Aberdeen L 1-2 1590 1770 14.1% 21.0% 64.9% -2.7 11
2019-12-01 Celtic L 1-4 1599 1937 11.1% 18.3% 70.7% -5.1 14
2019-12-01 @ Ross County W 4-1 1937 1599 70.7% 18.3% 11.1% +5.1 37
2019-12-01 Heart of Midlothian W 5-0 1910 1650 72.5% 17.3% 10.2% +8.8 37
2019-12-01 @ Rangers L 0-5 1650 1910 10.2% 17.3% 72.5% -8.8 11
2019-12-04 Hamilton Academical W 2-1 1942 1556 82.3% 11.7% 5.9% +1.0 40
2019-12-04 @ Celtic L 1-2 1556 1942 5.9% 11.7% 82.3% -1.0 12
2019-12-04 Hibernian W 2-1 1594 1716 26.9% 26.5% 46.6% +7.8 17
2019-12-04 @ Ross County L 1-2 1716 1594 46.6% 26.5% 26.9% -7.8 19
2019-12-04 Livingston D 1-1 1641 1640 43.4% 26.9% 29.7% -0.5 12
2019-12-04 @ Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1640 1641 29.7% 26.9% 43.4% +0.5 15
2019-12-04 Motherwell L 0-3 1587 1690 29.1% 26.8% 44.1% -15.9 11
2019-12-04 @ St. Mirren W 3-0 1690 1587 44.1% 26.8% 29.1% +15.9 28
2019-12-04 Rangers D 2-2 1773 1918 24.4% 26.0% 49.6% +0.7 29
2019-12-04 @ Aberdeen D 2-2 1918 1773 49.6% 26.0% 24.4% -0.7 38
2019-12-04 St. Johnstone D 0-0 1736 1583 62.0% 22.2% 15.7% -2.1 23
2019-12-04 @ Kilmarnock D 0-0 1583 1736 15.7% 22.2% 62.0% +2.1 12
2019-12-07 Aberdeen W 3-0 1709 1774 34.1% 27.2% 38.7% +19.7 22
2019-12-07 @ Hibernian L 0-3 1774 1709 38.7% 27.2% 34.1% -19.7 29
2019-12-07 Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 1706 1640 51.9% 25.5% 22.6% +4.7 31
2019-12-07 @ Motherwell L 0-1 1640 1706 22.6% 25.5% 51.9% -4.7 12
2019-12-07 Kilmarnock W 3-0 1640 1734 30.3% 27.0% 42.7% +21.2 18
2019-12-07 @ Livingston L 0-3 1734 1640 42.7% 27.0% 30.3% -21.2 23
2019-12-07 St. Mirren L 0-1 1555 1571 41.1% 27.1% 31.8% -7.5 12
2019-12-07 @ Hamilton Academical W 1-0 1571 1555 31.8% 27.1% 41.1% +7.5 14
2019-12-14 Hamilton Academical W 1-0 1754 1548 67.5% 19.9% 12.7% +2.6 32
2019-12-14 @ Aberdeen L 0-1 1548 1754 12.7% 19.9% 67.5% -2.6 12
2019-12-14 Kilmarnock W 1-0 1602 1713 28.2% 26.7% 45.0% +8.1 20
2019-12-14 @ Ross County L 0-1 1713 1602 45.0% 26.7% 28.2% -8.1 23
2019-12-14 Livingston D 3-3 1578 1661 31.7% 27.1% 41.2% +0.2 15
2019-12-14 @ St. Mirren D 3-3 1661 1578 41.2% 27.1% 31.7% -0.2 19
2019-12-14 St. Johnstone L 0-1 1636 1585 50.0% 25.9% 24.1% -8.8 12
2019-12-14 @ Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 1585 1636 24.1% 25.9% 50.0% +8.8 15
2019-12-15 Hibernian W 2-0 1943 1728 68.3% 19.5% 12.3% +4.7 43
2019-12-15 @ Celtic L 0-2 1728 1943 12.3% 19.5% 68.3% -4.7 22
2019-12-15 Rangers L 0-2 1711 1918 18.9% 24.0% 57.1% -7.4 31
2019-12-15 @ Motherwell W 2-0 1918 1711 57.1% 24.0% 18.9% +7.4 41
2019-12-18 Celtic L 0-2 1627 1947 11.9% 19.1% 69.1% -4.5 12
2019-12-18 @ Heart of Midlothian W 2-0 1947 1627 69.1% 19.1% 11.9% +4.5 46
2019-12-20 Rangers L 0-3 1724 1925 19.3% 24.2% 56.5% -11.0 22
2019-12-20 @ Hibernian W 3-0 1925 1724 56.5% 24.2% 19.3% +11.0 44
2019-12-21 Aberdeen W 2-1 1952 1756 66.4% 20.4% 13.3% +2.5 49
2019-12-21 @ Celtic L 1-2 1756 1952 13.3% 20.4% 66.4% -2.5 32
2019-12-21 Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 1545 1622 32.5% 27.1% 40.4% +7.0 15
2019-12-21 @ Hamilton Academical L 1-2 1622 1545 40.4% 27.1% 32.5% -7.0 12
2019-12-21 Motherwell L 0-1 1705 1704 43.4% 26.9% 29.7% -7.8 23
2019-12-21 @ Kilmarnock W 1-0 1704 1705 29.7% 26.9% 43.4% +7.9 34
2019-12-21 Ross County W 4-0 1661 1610 50.0% 25.9% 24.1% +17.7 22
2019-12-21 @ Livingston L 0-4 1610 1661 24.1% 25.9% 50.0% -17.7 20
2019-12-21 St. Mirren D 0-0 1594 1579 45.3% 26.7% 28.0% -0.7 16
2019-12-21 @ St. Johnstone D 0-0 1579 1594 28.0% 26.7% 45.3% +0.7 16
2019-12-26 Celtic L 1-2 1579 1954 9.5% 16.5% 74.0% -1.7 16
2019-12-26 @ St. Mirren W 2-1 1954 1579 74.0% 16.5% 9.5% +1.7 52
2019-12-26 Hibernian L 0-2 1615 1713 29.9% 26.9% 43.2% -11.2 12
2019-12-26 @ Heart of Midlothian W 2-0 1713 1615 43.2% 26.9% 29.9% +11.2 25
2019-12-26 Kilmarnock W 1-0 1936 1697 70.6% 18.3% 11.1% +2.2 47
2019-12-26 @ Rangers L 0-1 1697 1936 11.1% 18.3% 70.6% -2.2 23
2019-12-26 Livingston W 2-1 1754 1679 53.0% 25.2% 21.8% +4.3 35
2019-12-26 @ Aberdeen L 1-2 1679 1754 21.8% 25.2% 53.0% -4.2 22
2019-12-26 Motherwell L 1-2 1592 1711 27.3% 26.6% 46.1% -5.2 20
2019-12-26 @ Ross County W 2-1 1711 1592 46.1% 26.6% 27.3% +5.2 37
2019-12-26 St. Johnstone L 0-1 1552 1593 37.5% 27.2% 35.2% -7.0 15
2019-12-26 @ Hamilton Academical W 1-0 1593 1552 35.2% 27.2% 37.5% +7.0 19
2019-12-29 Aberdeen D 1-1 1604 1758 23.5% 25.8% 50.7% +1.0 13
2019-12-29 @ Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1758 1604 50.7% 25.8% 23.5% -1.0 36
2019-12-29 Hamilton Academical L 1-2 1717 1545 63.9% 21.4% 14.6% -10.1 37
2019-12-29 @ Motherwell W 2-1 1545 1717 14.6% 21.4% 63.9% +10.1 18
2019-12-29 Hibernian W 2-0 1675 1724 36.3% 27.3% 36.4% +13.0 25
2019-12-29 @ Livingston L 0-2 1724 1675 36.4% 27.3% 36.3% -13.0 25
2019-12-29 Kilmarnock W 1-0 1578 1695 27.5% 26.6% 45.9% +8.2 19
2019-12-29 @ St. Mirren L 0-1 1695 1578 45.9% 26.6% 27.5% -8.2 23
2019-12-29 Rangers L 1-2 1956 1938 45.7% 26.6% 27.7% -7.7 52
2019-12-29 @ Celtic W 2-1 1938 1956 27.7% 26.6% 45.7% +7.7 50
2019-12-29 Ross County D 1-1 1600 1587 45.0% 26.7% 28.3% -0.6 20
2019-12-29 @ St. Johnstone D 1-1 1587 1600 28.3% 26.7% 45.0% +0.6 21
2020-01-22 Celtic L 1-3 1687 1948 15.0% 21.8% 63.2% -5.1 23
2020-01-22 @ Kilmarnock W 3-1 1948 1687 63.2% 21.8% 15.0% +5.1 55
2020-01-22 Hamilton Academical W 2-1 1711 1555 62.3% 22.1% 15.6% +3.0 28
2020-01-22 @ Hibernian L 1-2 1555 1711 15.6% 22.1% 62.3% -3.0 18
2020-01-22 Heart of Midlothian D 0-0 1588 1605 40.8% 27.1% 32.0% -0.4 22
2020-01-22 @ Ross County D 0-0 1605 1588 32.0% 27.1% 40.8% +0.4 14
2020-01-22 Motherwell L 0-1 1757 1706 50.0% 25.9% 24.1% -8.8 36
2020-01-22 @ Aberdeen W 1-0 1706 1757 24.1% 25.9% 50.0% +8.8 40
2020-01-22 St. Johnstone W 1-0 1688 1600 54.6% 24.8% 20.6% +4.3 28
2020-01-22 @ Livingston L 0-1 1600 1688 20.6% 24.8% 54.6% -4.3 20
2020-01-22 St. Mirren W 1-0 1946 1586 80.6% 12.8% 6.7% +1.2 53
2020-01-22 @ Rangers L 0-1 1586 1946 6.7% 12.8% 80.6% -1.2 19
2020-01-25 Hibernian D 0-0 1715 1714 43.5% 26.9% 29.6% -0.6 41
2020-01-25 @ Motherwell D 0-0 1714 1715 29.6% 26.9% 43.5% +0.6 29
2020-01-25 Kilmarnock W 2-1 1595 1681 31.3% 27.1% 41.7% +7.2 23
2020-01-25 @ St. Johnstone L 1-2 1681 1595 41.7% 27.1% 31.3% -7.2 23
2020-01-25 Livingston L 2-4 1552 1692 25.0% 26.1% 48.8% -7.5 18
2020-01-25 @ Hamilton Academical W 4-2 1692 1552 48.8% 26.1% 25.0% +7.5 31
2020-01-25 Ross County W 3-0 1953 1588 81.0% 12.5% 6.5% +3.2 58
2020-01-25 @ Celtic L 0-3 1588 1953 6.5% 12.5% 81.0% -3.2 22
2020-01-26 Aberdeen D 0-0 1585 1748 22.6% 25.5% 51.9% +1.3 20
2020-01-26 @ St. Mirren D 0-0 1748 1585 51.9% 25.5% 22.6% -1.3 37
2020-01-26 Rangers W 2-1 1606 1947 10.9% 18.1% 71.1% +10.9 17
2020-01-26 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1947 1606 71.1% 18.1% 10.9% -10.9 53
2020-01-29 Celtic L 0-3 1602 1957 10.3% 17.5% 72.2% -5.5 23
2020-01-29 @ St. Johnstone W 3-0 1957 1602 72.2% 17.5% 10.3% +5.5 61
2020-01-29 Ross County W 2-0 1936 1584 80.0% 13.1% 6.9% +2.3 56
2020-01-29 @ Rangers L 0-2 1584 1936 6.9% 13.1% 80.0% -2.4 22
2020-02-01 Aberdeen D 0-0 1939 1747 66.0% 20.5% 13.5% -2.4 57
2020-02-01 @ Rangers D 0-0 1747 1939 13.5% 20.5% 66.0% +2.4 38
2020-02-01 Heart of Midlothian D 3-3 1597 1617 40.5% 27.1% 32.3% -0.2 24
2020-02-01 @ St. Johnstone D 3-3 1617 1597 32.3% 27.1% 40.5% +0.2 18
2020-02-01 Motherwell W 1-0 1699 1715 41.1% 27.1% 31.8% +6.2 34
2020-02-01 @ Livingston L 0-1 1715 1699 31.8% 27.1% 41.1% -6.2 41
2020-02-01 Ross County W 3-1 1674 1582 55.1% 24.6% 20.2% +6.9 26
2020-02-01 @ Kilmarnock L 1-3 1582 1674 20.2% 24.6% 55.1% -6.9 22
2020-02-01 St. Mirren D 2-2 1714 1586 59.3% 23.3% 17.4% -1.2 30
2020-02-01 @ Hibernian D 2-2 1586 1714 17.4% 23.3% 59.3% +1.2 21
2020-02-02 Celtic L 1-4 1545 1962 7.9% 14.5% 77.5% -3.4 18
2020-02-02 @ Hamilton Academical W 4-1 1962 1545 77.5% 14.5% 7.9% +3.4 64
2020-02-05 Celtic L 0-4 1708 1966 15.3% 22.0% 62.7% -11.4 41
2020-02-05 @ Motherwell W 4-0 1966 1708 62.7% 22.0% 15.3% +11.4 67
2020-02-05 Hamilton Academical D 1-1 1587 1542 49.3% 26.0% 24.6% -0.9 22
2020-02-05 @ St. Mirren D 1-1 1542 1587 24.6% 26.0% 49.3% +0.9 19
2020-02-05 Hibernian W 2-1 1936 1713 69.1% 19.1% 11.8% +2.2 60
2020-02-05 @ Rangers L 1-2 1713 1936 11.8% 19.1% 69.1% -2.2 30
2020-02-05 Kilmarnock L 2-3 1617 1681 34.2% 27.2% 38.6% -5.9 18
2020-02-05 @ Heart of Midlothian W 3-2 1681 1617 38.6% 27.2% 34.2% +5.9 29
2020-02-05 Livingston W 2-0 1575 1706 26.0% 26.3% 47.6% +15.9 25
2020-02-05 @ Ross County L 0-2 1706 1575 47.6% 26.3% 26.0% -15.9 34
2020-02-05 St. Johnstone L 0-1 1750 1597 62.0% 22.3% 15.8% -10.5 38
2020-02-05 @ Aberdeen W 1-0 1597 1750 15.8% 22.3% 62.0% +10.5 27
2020-02-11 Aberdeen L 1-3 1542 1739 19.7% 24.4% 55.9% -6.7 19
2020-02-11 @ Hamilton Academical W 3-1 1739 1542 55.9% 24.4% 19.7% +6.7 41
2020-02-12 Heart of Midlothian W 5-0 1977 1611 81.0% 12.5% 6.5% +5.1 70
2020-02-12 @ Celtic L 0-5 1611 1977 6.5% 12.5% 81.0% -5.1 18
2020-02-12 Motherwell W 2-1 1607 1697 30.8% 27.0% 42.2% +7.2 30
2020-02-12 @ St. Johnstone L 1-2 1697 1607 42.2% 27.0% 30.8% -7.2 41
2020-02-12 Rangers W 2-1 1687 1938 15.7% 22.2% 62.1% +9.9 32
2020-02-12 @ Kilmarnock L 1-2 1938 1687 62.1% 22.2% 15.7% -9.9 60
2020-02-12 Ross County W 3-0 1711 1591 58.3% 23.6% 18.1% +10.3 33
2020-02-12 @ Hibernian L 0-3 1591 1711 18.1% 23.6% 58.3% -10.3 25
2020-02-12 St. Mirren W 2-1 1690 1586 56.4% 24.2% 19.3% +3.8 37
2020-02-12 @ Livingston L 1-2 1586 1690 19.3% 24.2% 56.4% -3.8 22
2020-02-15 Hamilton Academical D 2-2 1606 1536 52.4% 25.4% 22.2% -0.9 19
2020-02-15 @ Heart of Midlothian D 2-2 1536 1606 22.2% 25.4% 52.4% +0.9 20
2020-02-15 St. Johnstone D 1-1 1581 1614 38.6% 27.2% 34.2% -0.2 26
2020-02-15 @ Ross County D 1-1 1614 1581 34.2% 27.2% 38.6% +0.1 31
2020-02-16 Celtic L 1-2 1746 1982 16.7% 22.9% 60.4% -3.3 41
2020-02-16 @ Aberdeen W 2-1 1982 1746 60.4% 22.9% 16.7% +3.3 73
2020-02-16 Hibernian L 1-2 1697 1721 39.9% 27.2% 33.0% -6.9 32
2020-02-16 @ Kilmarnock W 2-1 1721 1697 33.0% 27.2% 39.9% +6.9 36
2020-02-16 Livingston W 1-0 1929 1693 70.3% 18.5% 11.3% +2.2 63
2020-02-16 @ Rangers L 0-1 1693 1929 11.3% 18.5% 70.3% -2.2 37
2020-02-22 Livingston D 1-1 1728 1691 48.2% 26.2% 25.5% -0.9 37
2020-02-22 @ Hibernian D 1-1 1691 1728 25.5% 26.2% 48.2% +0.9 38
2020-02-22 Motherwell D 0-0 1537 1690 23.6% 25.8% 50.6% +1.2 21
2020-02-22 @ Hamilton Academical D 0-0 1690 1537 50.6% 25.8% 23.6% -1.2 42
2020-02-22 Ross County L 1-2 1742 1581 62.9% 21.9% 15.2% -10.0 41
2020-02-22 @ Aberdeen W 2-1 1581 1742 15.2% 21.9% 62.9% +10.0 29
2020-02-23 Kilmarnock W 3-1 1985 1690 75.6% 15.6% 8.8% +2.7 76
2020-02-23 @ Celtic L 1-3 1690 1985 8.8% 15.6% 75.6% -2.7 32
2020-02-23 Rangers D 2-2 1615 1931 12.1% 19.3% 68.7% +1.7 32
2020-02-23 @ St. Johnstone D 2-2 1931 1615 68.7% 19.3% 12.1% -1.7 64
2020-02-25 St. Mirren L 1-2 1689 1582 56.8% 24.1% 19.1% -9.2 42
2020-02-25 @ Motherwell W 2-1 1582 1689 19.1% 24.1% 56.8% +9.2 25
2020-03-03 Heart of Midlothian L 1-3 1727 1605 58.6% 23.5% 17.9% -16.3 37
2020-03-03 @ Hibernian W 3-1 1605 1727 17.9% 23.5% 58.6% +16.3 22
2020-03-04 Aberdeen D 2-2 1687 1732 36.9% 27.3% 35.9% -0.0 33
2020-03-04 @ Kilmarnock D 2-2 1732 1687 35.9% 27.3% 36.9% +0.0 42
2020-03-04 Celtic D 2-2 1692 1988 13.1% 20.2% 66.7% +1.6 39
2020-03-04 @ Livingston D 2-2 1988 1692 66.7% 20.2% 13.1% -1.6 77
2020-03-04 Hamilton Academical L 0-1 1929 1538 82.7% 11.5% 5.8% -12.7 64
2020-03-04 @ Rangers W 1-0 1538 1929 5.8% 11.5% 82.7% +12.7 24
2020-03-04 Ross County W 4-1 1680 1591 54.7% 24.8% 20.5% +9.9 45
2020-03-04 @ Motherwell L 1-4 1591 1680 20.5% 24.8% 54.7% -9.9 29
2020-03-04 St. Johnstone D 0-0 1592 1616 39.8% 27.2% 33.0% -0.3 26
2020-03-04 @ St. Mirren D 0-0 1616 1592 33.0% 27.2% 39.8% +0.3 33
2020-03-07 Hibernian W 3-1 1733 1711 46.2% 26.6% 27.3% +9.0 45
2020-03-07 @ Aberdeen L 1-3 1711 1733 27.3% 26.6% 46.2% -9.0 37
2020-03-07 Kilmarnock W 1-0 1551 1687 25.3% 26.2% 48.5% +8.6 27
2020-03-07 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-1 1687 1551 48.5% 26.2% 25.3% -8.6 33
2020-03-07 Livingston W 1-0 1617 1694 32.5% 27.1% 40.4% +7.4 36
2020-03-07 @ St. Johnstone L 0-1 1694 1617 40.4% 27.1% 32.5% -7.4 39
2020-03-07 Motherwell D 1-1 1621 1689 33.7% 27.2% 39.1% +0.2 23
2020-03-07 @ Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1689 1621 39.1% 27.2% 33.7% -0.2 46
2020-03-07 St. Mirren W 5-0 1986 1591 83.0% 11.3% 5.7% +4.4 80
2020-03-07 @ Celtic L 0-5 1591 1986 5.7% 11.3% 83.0% -4.4 26
2020-03-08 Rangers L 0-1 1581 1916 11.1% 18.3% 70.5% -2.2 29
2020-03-08 @ Ross County W 1-0 1916 1581 70.5% 18.3% 11.1% +2.2 67
2020-03-11 Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 1587 1621 38.4% 27.2% 34.3% +6.6 29
2020-03-11 @ St. Mirren L 0-1 1621 1587 34.3% 27.2% 38.4% -6.6 23

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2020-03-04 5.79% Hamilton Academical 1538 1 @ Rangers 1929 0
2 2020-01-26 10.88% @ Heart of Midlothian 1606 2 Rangers 1947 1
3 2019-10-06 14.41% @ Livingston 1643 2 Celtic 1915 0
4 2019-12-29 14.62% Hamilton Academical 1545 2 @ Motherwell 1717 1
5 2020-02-22 15.19% Ross County 1581 2 @ Aberdeen 1742 1
6 2020-02-12 15.70% @ Kilmarnock 1687 2 Rangers 1938 1
7 2020-02-05 15.77% St. Johnstone 1597 1 @ Aberdeen 1750 0
8 2020-03-03 17.86% Heart of Midlothian 1605 3 @ Hibernian 1727 1
9 2020-02-25 19.10% St. Mirren 1582 2 @ Motherwell 1689 1
10 2019-08-10 20.80% @ Hamilton Academical 1557 2 Kilmarnock 1741 0
11 2019-09-21 22.55% Ross County 1624 2 @ Motherwell 1691 1
12 2020-01-22 24.11% Motherwell 1706 1 @ Aberdeen 1757 0
13 2019-12-14 24.12% St. Johnstone 1585 1 @ Heart of Midlothian 1636 0
14 2019-08-11 24.76% @ St. Mirren 1607 1 Aberdeen 1749 0
15 2019-09-22 25.31% Heart of Midlothian 1656 2 @ Hibernian 1695 1
16 2020-03-07 25.32% @ Hamilton Academical 1551 1 Kilmarnock 1687 0
17 2020-02-05 26.01% @ Ross County 1575 2 Livingston 1706 0
18 2019-12-04 26.91% @ Ross County 1594 2 Hibernian 1716 1
19 2019-12-29 27.51% @ St. Mirren 1578 1 Kilmarnock 1695 0
20 2019-12-29 27.69% Rangers 1938 2 @ Celtic 1956 1
21 2019-12-14 28.24% @ Ross County 1602 1 Kilmarnock 1713 0
22 2019-08-24 29.26% Livingston 1643 4 @ Ross County 1648 1
23 2019-12-21 29.67% Motherwell 1704 1 @ Kilmarnock 1705 0
24 2019-12-07 30.29% @ Livingston 1640 3 Kilmarnock 1734 0
25 2020-02-12 30.79% @ St. Johnstone 1607 2 Motherwell 1697 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-12-07 21.23 @ Livingston 3 1640 30.29% Kilmarnock 0 1734 42.74% 26.97%
2 2019-10-06 20.29 @ Livingston 2 1643 14.41% Celtic 0 1915 64.30% 21.29%
3 2019-12-07 19.67 @ Hibernian 3 1709 34.11% Aberdeen 0 1774 38.68% 27.21%
4 2019-08-31 19.43 @ Motherwell 3 1665 34.74% Hibernian 0 1725 38.03% 27.23%
5 2019-10-19 18.99 Aberdeen 3 1742 35.87% @ Motherwell 0 1697 36.88% 27.25%
6 2019-08-24 18.27 Livingston 4 1643 29.26% @ Ross County 1 1648 43.88% 26.85%
7 2019-10-27 17.99 Celtic 4 1905 49.44% @ Aberdeen 0 1761 24.54% 26.02%
8 2019-09-28 17.88 @ Rangers 5 1863 56.30% Aberdeen 0 1761 19.41% 24.28%
9 2019-08-10 17.73 @ Hamilton Academical 2 1557 20.80% Kilmarnock 0 1741 54.34% 24.86%
10 2019-12-21 17.69 @ Livingston 4 1661 50.02% Ross County 0 1610 24.08% 25.90%
11 2020-03-03 16.33 Heart of Midlothian 3 1605 17.86% @ Hibernian 1 1727 58.62% 23.52%
12 2019-11-30 16.15 @ Motherwell 4 1674 53.04% St. Johnstone 0 1599 21.75% 25.21%
13 2020-02-05 15.93 @ Ross County 2 1575 26.01% Livingston 0 1706 47.65% 26.34%
14 2019-12-04 15.86 Motherwell 3 1690 44.08% @ St. Mirren 0 1587 29.09% 26.83%
15 2019-11-02 15.78 @ Aberdeen 3 1748 44.29% Kilmarnock 0 1740 28.90% 26.81%
16 2019-08-11 15.00 @ Rangers 6 1840 55.92% Hibernian 1 1741 19.68% 24.40%
17 2019-11-09 14.65 Hibernian 4 1688 40.13% @ St. Johnstone 1 1613 32.72% 27.15%
18 2019-08-03 14.60 @ Celtic 7 1871 68.82% St. Johnstone 0 1651 11.99% 19.19%
19 2019-09-22 13.48 Rangers 4 1850 58.33% @ St. Johnstone 0 1632 18.05% 23.62%
20 2019-09-01 13.35 Celtic 2 1897 34.85% @ Rangers 0 1859 37.92% 27.23%
21 2019-11-23 13.09 @ Kilmarnock 3 1723 51.18% Heart of Midlothian 0 1663 23.17% 25.65%
22 2019-12-29 12.96 @ Livingston 2 1675 36.33% Hibernian 0 1724 36.42% 27.25%
23 2019-08-03 12.91 @ Ross County 3 1634 51.63% Hamilton Academical 0 1570 22.82% 25.55%
24 2020-03-04 12.72 Hamilton Academical 1 1538 5.79% @ Rangers 0 1929 82.73% 11.48%
25 2019-10-19 11.86 @ St. Mirren 2 1593 40.51% St. Johnstone 0 1613 32.36% 27.13%