2011-12 Scottish Premier League Season

228 games

Final

Champion

Celtic

93 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Dunfermline Athletic

20.56 points above expected

25 points · 45.56 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Celtic

79.35 points below expected

93 points · 172.35 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Celtic 33 26 3 4 81 72 20 +52 71.34 +9.66
2 Rangers 33 23 4 6 73 65 25 +40 61.02 +11.98
3 Motherwell 33 16 7 10 55 43 38 +5 43.76 +11.24
4 St. Johnstone 33 14 8 11 50 42 36 +6 42.05 +7.95
5 Dundee United 33 13 10 10 49 55 43 +12 51.50 -2.50
6 Heart of Midlothian 33 14 6 13 48 41 32 +9 48.40 -0.40
7 Kilmarnock 33 8 13 12 37 36 54 -18 40.30 -3.30
8 Aberdeen 33 8 12 13 36 32 38 -6 37.26 -1.26
9 St. Mirren 33 7 14 12 35 32 46 -14 33.83 +1.17
10 Inverness CT 33 8 8 17 32 36 54 -18 41.22 -9.22
11 Hibernian 33 6 9 18 27 34 62 -28 31.65 -4.65
12 Dunfermline Athletic 33 4 8 21 20 32 72 -40 34.75 -14.75
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Celtic 38 30 3 5 93 84 21 +63 172.35 -79.35
2 Rangers 38 26 5 7 83 77 28 +49 145.46 -62.46
3 Motherwell 38 18 8 12 62 49 44 +5 114.91 -52.91
4 Dundee United 38 16 11 11 59 62 50 +12 105.64 -46.64
5 Heart of Midlothian 38 15 7 16 52 45 43 +2 102.38 -50.38
6 St. Johnstone 38 14 8 16 50 43 50 -7 102.75 -52.75
7 Kilmarnock 38 11 14 13 47 44 61 -17 81.22 -34.22
8 St. Mirren 38 9 16 13 43 39 51 -12 77.74 -34.74
9 Aberdeen 38 9 14 15 41 36 44 -8 78.78 -37.78
10 Inverness CT 38 10 9 19 39 42 60 -18 71.79 -32.79
11 Hibernian 38 8 9 21 33 40 67 -27 60.01 -27.01
12 Dunfermline Athletic 38 5 10 23 25 40 82 -42 45.56 -20.56

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Celtic 1835 93 71.34 +21.66 94.0% 46 60 67 71 76 82 95
Rangers 1786 83 61.02 +21.98 64.0% 32 50 57 61 66 71 81
Dundee United 1639 59 51.50 +7.50 39.0% 24 40 47 52 56 63 80
Motherwell 1556 62 43.76 +18.24 94.8% 20 32 39 44 49 56 71
Heart of Midlothian 1555 52 48.40 +3.60 50.2% 22 36 44 48 53 60 77
St. Johnstone 1491 50 42.05 +7.95 87.4% 16 30 37 42 47 54 68
Inverness CT 1486 39 41.22 -2.22 11.3% 14 29 36 41 46 53 70
Aberdeen 1467 41 37.26 +3.74 46.0% 14 26 32 37 42 49 65
Kilmarnock 1464 47 40.30 +6.70 35.3% 15 29 35 40 45 52 67
St. Mirren 1456 43 33.83 +9.17 60.0% 11 23 29 34 38 45 64
Hibernian 1422 33 31.65 +1.35 27.5% 10 21 27 31 36 43 57
Dunfermline Athletic 1387 25 34.75 -9.75 1.5% 12 24 30 35 39 46 63

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ABE CEL DU DA HOM HIB IC KIL MOT RAN SJ SM
Aberdeen
0-1-2
1.65
3-0-0
2.80
2-1-1
6.05
0-1-2
3.09
1-2-1
6.33
2-0-2
5.10
0-3-1
5.04
0-0-3
3.49
0-1-2
1.52
1-2-0
3.90
0-3-1
5.90
Celtic
2-1-0
6.79
3-0-1
8.16
3-0-0
7.28
3-0-1
8.46
2-1-0
7.04
3-0-0
6.65
2-1-0
6.77
4-0-0
8.71
2-0-2
5.84
3-0-1
9.19
3-0-0
6.94
Dundee United
0-0-3
5.46
1-0-3
2.95
2-0-1
5.61
3-1-0
6.16
2-1-0
5.92
3-0-0
5.06
1-2-0
5.08
1-2-1
6.44
1-0-3
3.22
2-2-0
6.42
0-3-0
5.67
Dunfermline Athletic
1-1-2
4.91
0-0-3
1.27
1-0-2
2.69
0-0-3
2.80
1-1-2
5.78
0-4-0
4.67
1-1-2
4.57
0-0-3
3.36
0-0-3
1.48
1-0-2
3.57
0-3-1
5.39
Heart of Midlothian
2-1-0
5.14
1-0-3
2.70
0-1-3
4.79
3-0-0
5.47
3-0-0
5.65
1-1-1
4.77
0-2-1
4.81
1-0-3
5.90
1-1-2
2.81
1-0-3
6.19
2-1-0
5.48
Hibernian
1-2-1
4.63
0-1-2
1.46
0-1-2
2.39
2-1-1
5.17
0-0-3
2.62
2-1-1
4.22
1-1-2
4.61
0-1-2
2.89
0-0-3
1.26
1-0-2
3.17
1-1-2
5.15
Inverness CT
2-0-2
5.85
0-0-3
1.77
0-0-3
3.17
0-4-0
6.29
1-1-1
3.44
1-1-2
6.75
2-1-1
5.53
1-0-2
4.13
0-0-3
1.85
0-1-2
3.67
3-1-0
6.11
Kilmarnock
1-3-0
5.90
0-1-2
1.67
0-2-1
3.15
2-1-1
6.39
1-2-0
3.41
2-1-1
6.35
1-1-2
5.41
1-2-0
3.70
2-0-1
1.54
0-1-2
3.89
1-0-3
6.24
Motherwell
3-0-0
4.73
0-0-4
2.48
1-2-1
4.52
3-0-0
4.88
3-0-1
5.04
2-1-0
5.37
2-0-1
4.08
0-2-1
4.51
0-1-3
2.65
3-0-1
5.73
1-2-0
5.01
Rangers
2-1-0
6.95
2-0-2
5.10
3-0-1
7.86
3-0-0
7.00
2-1-1
8.32
3-0-0
7.28
3-0-0
6.56
1-0-2
6.93
3-1-0
8.51
3-1-0
8.85
1-1-1
7.17
St. Johnstone
0-2-1
4.31
1-0-3
2.10
0-2-2
4.54
2-0-1
4.65
3-0-1
4.76
2-0-1
5.06
2-1-0
4.54
2-1-0
4.32
1-0-3
5.21
0-1-3
2.37
1-1-1
4.73
St. Mirren
1-3-0
5.05
0-0-3
1.53
0-3-0
2.61
1-3-0
5.57
0-1-2
2.79
2-1-1
5.80
0-1-3
4.84
3-0-1
4.71
0-2-1
3.22
1-1-1
1.35
1-1-1
3.49

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.86 +11.6
Allowed 0.83 -10.9
Differential 0.97 +6.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.96%8.11%7.46%4.17%1.97%1.10%33.77%
18.11%9.21%6.80%2.63%0.88%0.66%28.29%
27.46%6.80%2.19%2.19%0.66%0.22%19.52%
34.17%2.63%2.19%2.19%0.44%0.22%11.84%
41.97%0.88%0.66%0.44%0.44%4.39%
5+1.10%0.66%0.22%0.22%2.19%
Total33.77%28.29%19.52%11.84%4.39%2.19%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.32 +0.00
SD 1.30 1.30 1.91
CV 0.99 0.99
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 228

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.42%13.16%5.26%7.89%44.74%
15.26%10.53%13.16%28.95%
22.63%7.89%5.26%15.79%
35.26%2.63%7.89%
42.63%2.63%
5+
Total28.95%36.84%23.68%10.53%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.95 1.16 -0.21
SD 1.09 0.97 1.44
CV 1.15 0.84
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.63%5.26%2.63%10.53%
118.42%2.63%21.05%
221.05%13.16%2.63%2.63%39.47%
37.89%2.63%10.53%
45.26%5.26%
5+10.53%2.63%13.16%
Total65.79%23.68%2.63%5.26%2.63%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.21 0.55 +1.66
SD 1.53 0.98 1.92
CV 0.69 1.77
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.89%7.89%2.63%18.42%
17.89%10.53%5.26%10.53%2.63%36.84%
210.53%2.63%5.26%18.42%
35.26%5.26%2.63%5.26%18.42%
42.63%2.63%5.26%
5+2.63%2.63%
Total34.21%31.58%13.16%15.79%5.26%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.63 1.32 +0.32
SD 1.28 1.38 1.99
CV 0.79 1.05
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.26%2.63%7.89%7.89%10.53%34.21%
17.89%10.53%13.16%5.26%5.26%42.11%
22.63%5.26%2.63%10.53%
35.26%5.26%10.53%
42.63%2.63%
5+
Total18.42%13.16%23.68%23.68%21.05%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 2.16 -1.11
SD 1.06 1.41 1.77
CV 1.01 0.65
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.89%18.42%7.89%5.26%2.63%2.63%44.74%
17.89%5.26%13.16%
218.42%7.89%2.63%28.95%
35.26%2.63%7.89%
42.63%2.63%
5+2.63%2.63%
Total34.21%36.84%18.42%5.26%2.63%2.63%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.13 +0.05
SD 1.31 1.19 2.07
CV 1.11 1.05
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.53%15.79%15.79%2.63%2.63%47.37%
12.63%7.89%2.63%7.89%2.63%23.68%
22.63%2.63%2.63%7.89%
32.63%10.53%2.63%2.63%18.42%
42.63%2.63%
5+
Total15.79%28.95%31.58%13.16%7.89%2.63%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 1.76 -0.71
SD 1.25 1.26 1.66
CV 1.19 0.72
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.89%7.89%13.16%5.26%34.21%
110.53%13.16%7.89%2.63%2.63%36.84%
22.63%10.53%7.89%21.05%
32.63%2.63%5.26%
4
5+2.63%2.63%
Total21.05%31.58%21.05%21.05%5.26%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.58 -0.47
SD 1.20 1.20 1.41
CV 1.09 0.76
Max 6 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.16%7.89%5.26%2.63%2.63%31.58%
110.53%18.42%7.89%2.63%39.47%
25.26%5.26%2.63%2.63%15.79%
32.63%2.63%2.63%7.89%
42.63%2.63%5.26%
5+
Total28.95%26.32%21.05%13.16%5.26%5.26%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.16 1.61 -0.45
SD 1.13 1.59 1.80
CV 0.97 0.99
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.16%5.26%7.89%10.53%2.63%39.47%
115.79%7.89%5.26%28.95%
22.63%2.63%5.26%
37.89%5.26%5.26%18.42%
42.63%2.63%5.26%
5+2.63%2.63%
Total39.47%23.68%21.05%13.16%2.63%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 1.16 +0.13
SD 1.43 1.17 1.92
CV 1.11 1.01
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.26%7.89%2.63%15.79%
15.26%7.89%7.89%21.05%
215.79%13.16%28.95%
37.89%5.26%2.63%15.79%
47.89%5.26%2.63%15.79%
5+2.63%2.63%
Total44.74%39.47%13.16%2.63%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.03 0.74 +1.29
SD 1.38 0.79 1.75
CV 0.68 1.08
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.42%7.89%13.16%2.63%2.63%44.74%
15.26%5.26%5.26%15.79%
27.89%7.89%5.26%21.05%
37.89%5.26%2.63%2.63%18.42%
4
5+
Total39.47%21.05%21.05%10.53%2.63%5.26%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.13 1.32 -0.18
SD 1.19 1.44 1.92
CV 1.05 1.09
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
021.05%5.26%7.89%2.63%2.63%39.47%
17.89%13.16%7.89%2.63%31.58%
22.63%7.89%5.26%2.63%2.63%21.05%
32.63%2.63%
42.63%2.63%5.26%
5+
Total34.21%26.32%23.68%7.89%2.63%5.26%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.34 -0.32
SD 1.10 1.38 1.51
CV 1.07 1.03
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 38

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dunfermline Athletic 25 45.56 -20.56
2 Hibernian 33 60.01 -27.01
3 Inverness CT 39 71.79 -32.79
4 Kilmarnock 47 81.22 -34.22
5 St. Mirren 43 77.74 -34.74

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Celtic 93 172.35 -79.35
2 Rangers 83 145.46 -62.46
3 Motherwell 62 114.91 -52.91
4 St. Johnstone 50 102.75 -52.75
5 Heart of Midlothian 52 102.38 -50.38

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Celtic 17 Nov 6 – Feb 25 1 in 1,200
2 Dundee United 6 Feb 21 – Mar 31 1 in 99
3 Rangers 9 Jul 30 – Oct 1 1 in 75
4 Motherwell 3 Sep 24 – Oct 15 1 in 21
5 Kilmarnock 2 Nov 27 – Dec 3 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rangers 2 Dec 24 – Dec 28 1 in 25
2 St. Johnstone 5 Apr 21 – May 13 1 in 22
3 Dunfermline Athletic 5 Dec 3 – Jan 14 1 in 22
4 Kilmarnock 3 Sep 24 – Oct 1 1 in 15
5 Inverness CT 2 Jul 23 – Jul 30 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Aberdeen 9 Dec 28 – Mar 3 1 in 386
2 Celtic 21 Oct 15 – Mar 3 1 in 23
3 St. Mirren 5 Jan 28 – Mar 3 1 in 21
4 Dundee United 9 Jan 21 – Mar 31 1 in 20
5 Rangers 15 Jul 23 – Nov 19 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 St. Mirren 11 Dec 28 – Mar 24 1 in 37
2 Dunfermline Athletic 12 Jan 24 – Apr 21 1 in 21
3 Aberdeen 7 Feb 11 – Mar 31 1 in 16
4 Dundee United 5 Aug 6 – Sep 10 1 in 14
5 Hibernian 9 Oct 29 – Jan 2 1 in 12

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team123456789101112
Celtic84.10%13.48%2.03%0.31%0.07%0.01%
Rangers13.59%61.41%16.62%5.34%1.72%0.87%0.25%0.11%0.04%0.04%0.01%
Motherwell0.14%2.22%8.62%14.01%16.11%15.89%13.10%10.89%8.21%5.76%3.27%1.78%
Dundee United1.47%12.59%32.75%21.60%13.13%7.92%4.91%2.72%1.56%0.95%0.34%0.06%
Heart of Midlothian0.49%6.68%21.61%22.58%16.31%11.89%7.97%5.60%3.22%1.96%1.21%0.48%
St. Johnstone0.09%1.36%6.35%10.89%13.96%14.81%14.18%12.00%10.24%7.88%5.24%3.00%
Kilmarnock0.05%0.71%3.81%7.47%10.93%12.51%13.96%13.61%12.82%10.67%7.99%5.47%
St. Mirren0.10%0.55%1.59%3.12%5.41%7.31%10.48%13.45%16.49%20.54%20.96%
Aberdeen0.35%1.77%4.18%7.06%9.21%12.07%13.00%14.96%14.14%12.99%10.27%
Inverness CT0.06%0.97%5.04%8.97%12.15%13.41%13.77%13.55%11.42%9.73%6.86%4.07%
Hibernian0.04%0.16%0.97%1.71%2.87%4.72%7.48%10.04%15.33%22.11%34.57%
Dunfermline Athletic0.01%0.09%0.69%2.09%3.73%5.21%7.75%10.56%14.04%17.05%19.44%19.34%
Team123456789101112
Celtic100.00%
Rangers99.84%0.16%
Motherwell0.15%72.92%21.53%5.10%0.30%
Dundee United0.01%18.67%48.75%23.56%9.01%
Heart of Midlothian6.02%20.66%44.26%29.06%
St. Johnstone2.23%9.06%27.08%61.63%
Kilmarnock47.37%28.18%17.17%7.10%0.18%
St. Mirren24.48%30.65%27.99%16.08%0.80%
Aberdeen23.44%28.33%30.52%16.74%0.97%
Inverness CT4.69%12.60%23.16%53.50%6.04%0.01%
Hibernian0.02%0.24%1.16%6.57%87.75%4.26%
Dunfermline Athletic0.01%4.26%95.73%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Points Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+3.95%
No Edge
39.47%25.00%35.53%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 13.72 Elo pts.
164 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.13 goals
Neutral
-2+0.08+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.4
One-Team Race
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
84%
Celtic, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.26/gm
Tight Race
00.280.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.61 * Some Luck: 5.61 to 8.41 * Lucky: 8.41 to 11.21 * Wild Swing: 11.21 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.28 * Close: 1.28 to 1.93 * Off: 1.93 to 2.57 * Way Off: 2.57 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
7.24 points
Some Luck
07.0118
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.17
Pinpoint
01.614
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
94.80%
Motherwell
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
1.55%
Dunfermline Athletic
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
2.13
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
68%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 93%
92%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
60%
Very Frequent
0%57%100%
Blowouts
Expected
18%
Frequent
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.35
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.08
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.60
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Chalky
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
18%
As Expected
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.11 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.11 to 0.17 * Above Noise: 0.17 to 0.22 * Well Above Noise: 0.22 and up.
Probability calibration
0.84
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.09
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.053
Well Within Noise
00.1110.25

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff
Celtic 100%
Rangers 100%
Dundee United 99.96% 0.04%
Heart of Midlothian 99.64% 0.36%
Motherwell 98.60% 1.40%
St. Johnstone 97.74% 2.26%
Inverness CT 96.27% 3.73%
Kilmarnock 94.63% 5.37%
Aberdeen 90.67% 9.33%
St. Mirren 78.75% 21.25%
Dunfermline Athletic 78.73% 21.27%
Hibernian 65.01% 34.99%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff
Aberdeen 100%
Celtic 100%
Dundee United 100%
Heart of Midlothian 100%
Kilmarnock 100%
Motherwell 100%
Rangers 100%
St. Johnstone 100%
St. Mirren 100%
Inverness CT 99.99% 0.01%
Hibernian 95.74% 4.26%
Dunfermline Athletic 4.27% 95.73%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2011-07-23 Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1725 1548 61.4% 22.0% 16.6% -1.7 1
2011-07-23 @ Rangers D 1-1 1548 1725 16.6% 22.0% 61.4% +1.7 1
2011-07-23 Inverness CT W 3-0 1489 1556 29.9% 26.2% 44.0% +20.3 3
2011-07-23 @ Motherwell L 0-3 1556 1489 44.0% 26.2% 29.9% -20.3 0
2011-07-23 St. Johnstone D 0-0 1477 1480 38.5% 26.5% 35.0% -0.1 1
2011-07-23 @ Aberdeen D 0-0 1480 1477 35.0% 26.5% 38.5% +0.1 1
2011-07-24 Celtic L 0-2 1465 1735 12.9% 19.3% 67.8% -4.6 0
2011-07-24 @ Hibernian W 2-0 1735 1465 67.8% 19.3% 12.9% +4.6 3
2011-07-24 Kilmarnock D 1-1 1597 1515 50.1% 25.2% 24.6% -0.9 1
2011-07-24 @ Dundee United D 1-1 1515 1597 24.6% 25.2% 50.1% +0.9 1
2011-07-25 St. Mirren D 0-0 1513 1443 48.6% 25.5% 25.9% -0.9 1
2011-07-25 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-0 1443 1513 25.9% 25.5% 48.6% +0.9 1
2011-07-30 Aberdeen W 1-0 1444 1477 34.2% 26.5% 39.3% +6.8 4
2011-07-30 @ St. Mirren L 0-1 1477 1444 39.3% 26.5% 34.2% -6.8 1
2011-07-30 Hibernian L 0-1 1536 1461 49.2% 25.4% 25.4% -8.1 0
2011-07-30 @ Inverness CT W 1-0 1461 1536 25.4% 25.4% 49.2% +8.1 3
2011-07-30 Motherwell D 0-0 1516 1510 39.8% 26.5% 33.8% -0.2 2
2011-07-30 @ Kilmarnock D 0-0 1510 1516 33.8% 26.5% 39.8% +0.2 4
2011-07-30 Rangers L 0-2 1480 1724 14.4% 20.5% 65.1% -5.2 1
2011-07-30 @ St. Johnstone W 2-0 1724 1480 65.1% 20.5% 14.4% +5.2 4
2011-07-31 Dundee United L 0-1 1550 1596 32.4% 26.4% 41.2% -5.9 1
2011-07-31 @ Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 1596 1550 41.2% 26.4% 32.4% +5.9 4
2011-08-06 Inverness CT D 3-3 1512 1528 36.7% 26.5% 36.8% +0.0 2
2011-08-06 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 3-3 1528 1512 36.8% 26.5% 36.7% +0.0 1
2011-08-06 St. Mirren D 1-1 1602 1450 58.5% 23.0% 18.5% -1.5 5
2011-08-06 @ Dundee United D 1-1 1450 1602 18.5% 23.0% 58.5% +1.5 5
2011-08-07 Celtic L 0-1 1470 1739 12.9% 19.3% 67.8% -2.4 1
2011-08-07 @ Aberdeen W 1-0 1739 1470 67.8% 19.3% 12.9% +2.4 6
2011-08-07 Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 1510 1544 34.2% 26.5% 39.4% +6.8 7
2011-08-07 @ Motherwell L 0-1 1544 1510 39.4% 26.5% 34.2% -6.8 1
2011-08-13 Aberdeen W 3-0 1537 1468 48.4% 25.6% 26.0% +13.5 4
2011-08-13 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-3 1468 1537 26.0% 25.6% 48.4% -13.5 1
2011-08-13 Dundee United W 5-1 1742 1600 57.3% 23.4% 19.3% +11.1 9
2011-08-13 @ Celtic L 1-5 1600 1742 19.3% 23.4% 57.3% -11.1 5
2011-08-13 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-1 1475 1512 33.7% 26.4% 39.9% -6.0 1
2011-08-13 @ St. Johnstone W 1-0 1512 1475 39.9% 26.4% 33.7% +6.1 5
2011-08-13 Motherwell L 0-1 1452 1517 30.1% 26.2% 43.7% -5.6 5
2011-08-13 @ St. Mirren W 1-0 1517 1452 43.7% 26.2% 30.1% +5.5 10
2011-08-13 Rangers L 0-2 1528 1729 17.1% 22.3% 60.6% -6.2 1
2011-08-13 @ Inverness CT W 2-0 1729 1528 60.6% 22.3% 17.1% +6.2 7
2011-08-14 Hibernian W 4-1 1516 1469 45.5% 26.0% 28.6% +12.3 5
2011-08-14 @ Kilmarnock L 1-4 1469 1516 28.6% 26.0% 45.5% -12.3 3
2011-08-20 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-1 1589 1518 48.6% 25.5% 25.8% -8.0 5
2011-08-20 @ Dundee United W 1-0 1518 1589 25.8% 25.5% 48.6% +8.0 8
2011-08-20 Inverness CT W 2-1 1454 1522 29.8% 26.1% 44.1% +7.0 4
2011-08-20 @ Aberdeen L 1-2 1522 1454 44.1% 26.1% 29.8% -7.0 1
2011-08-20 St. Mirren L 1-2 1456 1446 40.4% 26.4% 33.2% -6.5 3
2011-08-20 @ Hibernian W 2-1 1446 1456 33.2% 26.4% 40.4% +6.5 8
2011-08-21 Heart of Midlothian D 0-0 1528 1550 35.7% 26.5% 37.8% +0.1 6
2011-08-21 @ Kilmarnock D 0-0 1550 1528 37.8% 26.5% 35.7% -0.1 5
2011-08-21 Rangers L 0-3 1522 1735 16.3% 21.8% 61.9% -8.6 10
2011-08-21 @ Motherwell W 3-0 1735 1522 61.9% 21.8% 16.3% +8.6 10
2011-08-21 St. Johnstone L 0-1 1753 1469 72.0% 17.2% 10.7% -11.0 9
2011-08-21 @ Celtic W 1-0 1469 1753 10.7% 17.2% 72.0% +11.0 4
2011-08-27 Dundee United D 3-3 1480 1581 25.9% 25.5% 48.6% +0.5 5
2011-08-27 @ St. Johnstone D 3-3 1581 1480 48.6% 25.5% 25.9% -0.5 6
2011-08-27 Kilmarnock W 2-1 1515 1528 37.0% 26.5% 36.5% +6.1 4
2011-08-27 @ Inverness CT L 1-2 1528 1515 36.5% 26.5% 37.0% -6.1 6
2011-08-27 Motherwell L 2-4 1526 1514 40.8% 26.4% 32.8% -10.2 8
2011-08-27 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 4-2 1514 1526 32.8% 26.4% 40.8% +10.2 13
2011-08-28 Aberdeen W 2-0 1744 1461 71.9% 17.3% 10.8% +3.7 13
2011-08-28 @ Rangers L 0-2 1461 1744 10.8% 17.3% 71.9% -3.7 4
2011-08-28 Celtic L 0-2 1453 1742 11.9% 18.4% 69.7% -4.2 8
2011-08-28 @ St. Mirren W 2-0 1742 1453 69.7% 18.4% 11.9% +4.2 12
2011-08-28 Hibernian W 2-0 1550 1450 52.4% 24.8% 22.8% +8.3 8
2011-08-28 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-2 1450 1550 22.8% 24.8% 52.4% -8.3 3
2011-09-10 Dunfermline Athletic W 3-2 1522 1516 39.7% 26.5% 33.8% +5.4 9
2011-09-10 @ Kilmarnock L 2-3 1516 1522 33.8% 26.5% 39.7% -5.4 8
2011-09-10 Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1521 1559 33.6% 26.4% 40.0% +0.2 5
2011-09-10 @ Inverness CT D 1-1 1559 1521 40.0% 26.4% 33.6% -0.2 9
2011-09-10 Motherwell W 4-0 1746 1524 66.1% 20.1% 13.8% +9.4 15
2011-09-10 @ Celtic L 0-4 1524 1746 13.8% 20.1% 66.1% -9.4 13
2011-09-10 Rangers L 0-1 1581 1747 19.7% 23.6% 56.7% -3.8 6
2011-09-10 @ Dundee United W 1-0 1747 1581 56.7% 23.6% 19.7% +3.8 16
2011-09-10 St. Johnstone D 0-0 1449 1481 34.4% 26.5% 39.1% +0.2 9
2011-09-10 @ St. Mirren D 0-0 1481 1449 39.1% 26.5% 34.4% -0.2 6
2011-09-11 Aberdeen D 0-0 1442 1458 36.7% 26.5% 36.8% +0.0 4
2011-09-11 @ Hibernian D 0-0 1458 1442 36.8% 26.5% 36.7% -0.0 5
2011-09-17 Hibernian D 2-2 1511 1442 48.4% 25.6% 26.0% -0.6 9
2011-09-17 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 2-2 1442 1511 26.0% 25.6% 48.4% +0.6 5
2011-09-17 Inverness CT W 3-1 1577 1521 46.7% 25.8% 27.5% +8.4 9
2011-09-17 @ Dundee United L 1-3 1521 1577 27.5% 25.8% 46.7% -8.4 5
2011-09-17 Kilmarnock D 2-2 1458 1527 29.5% 26.1% 44.4% +0.4 6
2011-09-17 @ Aberdeen D 2-2 1527 1458 44.4% 26.1% 29.5% -0.4 10
2011-09-17 St. Johnstone L 0-3 1514 1480 43.7% 26.2% 30.1% -20.2 13
2011-09-17 @ Motherwell W 3-0 1480 1514 30.1% 26.2% 43.7% +20.2 9
2011-09-17 St. Mirren W 2-0 1558 1449 53.5% 24.5% 22.0% +8.0 12
2011-09-17 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-2 1449 1558 22.0% 24.5% 53.5% -8.0 9
2011-09-18 Celtic W 4-2 1751 1755 38.3% 26.5% 35.2% +9.1 19
2011-09-18 @ Rangers L 2-4 1755 1751 35.2% 26.5% 38.3% -9.1 15
2011-09-24 Aberdeen W 1-0 1494 1458 44.0% 26.1% 29.8% +5.5 16
2011-09-24 @ Motherwell L 0-1 1458 1494 29.8% 26.1% 44.0% -5.5 6
2011-09-24 Dundee United D 3-3 1442 1585 21.7% 24.4% 53.9% +0.7 6
2011-09-24 @ Hibernian D 3-3 1585 1442 53.9% 24.4% 21.7% -0.7 10
2011-09-24 Inverness CT W 2-0 1746 1512 67.3% 19.5% 13.2% +4.7 18
2011-09-24 @ Celtic L 0-2 1512 1746 13.2% 19.5% 67.3% -4.7 5
2011-09-24 Kilmarnock W 3-0 1441 1527 27.6% 25.8% 46.6% +21.2 12
2011-09-24 @ St. Mirren L 0-3 1527 1441 46.6% 25.8% 27.6% -21.2 10
2011-09-24 Rangers L 0-4 1510 1760 14.0% 20.2% 65.8% -9.5 9
2011-09-24 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 4-0 1760 1510 65.8% 20.2% 14.0% +9.5 22
2011-09-25 Heart of Midlothian W 2-0 1501 1566 30.0% 26.2% 43.9% +13.9 12
2011-09-25 @ St. Johnstone L 0-2 1566 1501 43.9% 26.2% 30.0% -13.9 12
2011-09-27 Kilmarnock W 2-0 1770 1506 70.2% 18.1% 11.6% +4.1 25
2011-09-27 @ Rangers L 0-2 1506 1770 11.6% 18.1% 70.2% -4.1 10
2011-09-28 St. Johnstone W 3-2 1443 1515 29.3% 26.1% 44.7% +6.7 9
2011-09-28 @ Hibernian L 2-3 1515 1443 44.7% 26.1% 29.3% -6.7 12
2011-09-30 Dunfermline Athletic W 4-0 1452 1501 32.2% 26.4% 41.4% +25.3 9
2011-09-30 @ Aberdeen L 0-4 1501 1452 41.4% 26.4% 32.2% -25.3 9
2011-10-01 Hibernian W 1-0 1774 1450 75.6% 15.4% 9.1% +1.6 28
2011-10-01 @ Rangers L 0-1 1450 1774 9.1% 15.4% 75.6% -1.6 9
2011-10-01 Motherwell L 1-3 1585 1500 50.4% 25.2% 24.4% -13.5 10
2011-10-01 @ Dundee United W 3-1 1500 1585 24.4% 25.2% 50.4% +13.5 19
2011-10-01 St. Johnstone L 1-2 1502 1508 38.0% 26.5% 35.5% -6.2 10
2011-10-01 @ Kilmarnock W 2-1 1508 1502 35.5% 26.5% 38.0% +6.2 15
2011-10-01 St. Mirren W 2-1 1508 1462 45.3% 26.0% 28.7% +5.0 8
2011-10-01 @ Inverness CT L 1-2 1462 1508 28.7% 26.0% 45.3% -5.0 12
2011-10-02 Celtic W 2-0 1552 1751 17.2% 22.4% 60.4% +18.1 15
2011-10-02 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-2 1751 1552 60.4% 22.4% 17.2% -18.1 18
2011-10-15 Celtic D 3-3 1495 1733 14.7% 20.7% 64.6% +1.2 11
2011-10-15 @ Kilmarnock D 3-3 1733 1495 64.6% 20.7% 14.7% -1.2 19
2011-10-15 Dundee United W 3-1 1478 1571 26.7% 25.7% 47.6% +12.9 12
2011-10-15 @ Aberdeen L 1-3 1571 1478 47.6% 25.7% 26.7% -12.9 10
2011-10-15 Heart of Midlothian L 0-2 1475 1570 26.6% 25.7% 47.8% -9.4 9
2011-10-15 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-0 1570 1475 47.8% 25.7% 26.6% +9.4 18
2011-10-15 Inverness CT W 2-0 1514 1513 39.1% 26.5% 34.4% +11.6 18
2011-10-15 @ St. Johnstone L 0-2 1513 1514 34.4% 26.5% 39.1% -11.6 8
2011-10-15 Motherwell L 0-1 1448 1513 30.0% 26.2% 43.8% -5.5 9
2011-10-15 @ Hibernian W 1-0 1513 1448 43.8% 26.2% 30.0% +5.5 22
2011-10-15 St. Mirren D 1-1 1775 1457 75.1% 15.6% 9.3% -2.5 29
2011-10-15 @ Rangers D 1-1 1457 1775 9.3% 15.6% 75.1% +2.5 13
2011-10-22 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-1 1501 1466 43.9% 26.2% 30.0% -0.5 9
2011-10-22 @ Inverness CT D 1-1 1466 1501 30.0% 26.2% 43.9% +0.5 10
2011-10-22 Hibernian L 2-3 1460 1442 41.4% 26.4% 32.3% -6.3 13
2011-10-22 @ St. Mirren W 3-2 1442 1460 32.3% 26.4% 41.4% +6.3 12
2011-10-22 Kilmarnock D 0-0 1519 1496 42.1% 26.3% 31.6% -0.4 23
2011-10-22 @ Motherwell D 0-0 1496 1519 31.6% 26.3% 42.1% +0.4 12
2011-10-22 St. Johnstone D 0-0 1558 1526 43.5% 26.2% 30.3% -0.5 11
2011-10-22 @ Dundee United D 0-0 1526 1558 30.3% 26.2% 43.5% +0.5 19
2011-10-23 Aberdeen W 2-1 1732 1491 68.0% 19.2% 12.8% +2.3 22
2011-10-23 @ Celtic L 1-2 1491 1732 12.8% 19.2% 68.0% -2.3 12
2011-10-23 Rangers L 0-2 1580 1773 17.6% 22.6% 59.8% -6.4 18
2011-10-23 @ Heart of Midlothian W 2-0 1773 1580 59.8% 22.6% 17.6% +6.4 32
2011-10-29 Dundee United L 1-4 1466 1558 27.0% 25.7% 47.3% -11.7 10
2011-10-29 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 4-1 1558 1466 47.3% 25.7% 27.0% +11.7 14
2011-10-29 Hibernian D 0-0 1734 1449 72.2% 17.2% 10.7% -2.6 23
2011-10-29 @ Celtic D 0-0 1449 1734 10.7% 17.2% 72.2% +2.6 13
2011-10-29 Kilmarnock L 0-1 1573 1497 49.4% 25.4% 25.2% -8.1 18
2011-10-29 @ Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 1497 1573 25.2% 25.4% 49.4% +8.1 15
2011-10-29 Motherwell L 2-3 1501 1518 36.4% 26.5% 37.1% -5.7 9
2011-10-29 @ Inverness CT W 3-2 1518 1501 37.1% 26.5% 36.4% +5.7 26
2011-10-29 Rangers L 1-2 1488 1779 11.8% 18.3% 69.9% -2.1 12
2011-10-29 @ Aberdeen W 2-1 1779 1488 69.9% 18.3% 11.8% +2.1 35
2011-10-29 St. Mirren L 0-1 1526 1453 48.9% 25.5% 25.6% -8.1 19
2011-10-29 @ St. Johnstone W 1-0 1453 1526 25.6% 25.5% 48.9% +8.1 16
2011-11-05 Dundee United W 3-1 1782 1569 65.1% 20.5% 14.4% +4.5 38
2011-11-05 @ Rangers L 1-3 1569 1782 14.4% 20.5% 65.1% -4.5 14
2011-11-05 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-1 1451 1455 38.5% 26.5% 35.1% -6.7 13
2011-11-05 @ Hibernian W 1-0 1455 1451 35.1% 26.5% 38.5% +6.7 13
2011-11-05 Heart of Midlothian D 0-0 1461 1565 25.6% 25.5% 49.0% +0.9 17
2011-11-05 @ St. Mirren D 0-0 1565 1461 49.0% 25.5% 25.6% -0.9 19
2011-11-05 Inverness CT L 3-6 1505 1495 40.4% 26.4% 33.2% -12.8 15
2011-11-05 @ Kilmarnock W 6-3 1495 1505 33.2% 26.4% 40.4% +12.8 12
2011-11-06 Celtic L 1-2 1524 1731 16.6% 22.0% 61.3% -3.0 26
2011-11-06 @ Motherwell W 2-1 1731 1524 61.3% 22.0% 16.6% +3.0 26
2011-11-19 Celtic L 0-2 1508 1734 15.4% 21.2% 63.4% -5.6 12
2011-11-19 @ Inverness CT W 2-0 1734 1508 63.4% 21.2% 15.4% +5.6 29
2011-11-19 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-1 1462 1461 39.1% 26.5% 34.5% +5.8 20
2011-11-19 @ St. Mirren L 1-2 1461 1462 34.5% 26.5% 39.1% -5.8 13
2011-11-19 Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 1565 1564 39.0% 26.5% 34.5% +6.2 17
2011-11-19 @ Dundee United L 0-1 1564 1565 34.5% 26.5% 39.0% -6.2 19
2011-11-19 Kilmarnock D 1-1 1445 1492 32.3% 26.4% 41.3% +0.3 14
2011-11-19 @ Hibernian D 1-1 1492 1445 41.3% 26.4% 32.3% -0.3 16
2011-11-19 Motherwell L 1-2 1486 1521 34.0% 26.5% 39.5% -5.8 12
2011-11-19 @ Aberdeen W 2-1 1521 1486 39.5% 26.5% 34.0% +5.8 29
2011-11-19 St. Johnstone D 0-0 1786 1518 70.6% 18.0% 11.5% -2.5 39
2011-11-19 @ Rangers D 0-0 1518 1786 11.5% 18.0% 70.6% +2.5 20
2011-11-23 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-1 1740 1456 72.1% 17.2% 10.7% +1.8 32
2011-11-23 @ Celtic L 1-2 1456 1740 10.7% 17.2% 72.1% -1.8 13
2011-11-26 Aberdeen D 3-3 1454 1480 35.1% 26.5% 38.4% +0.1 14
2011-11-26 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 3-3 1480 1454 38.4% 26.5% 35.1% -0.1 13
2011-11-26 Dundee United D 0-0 1527 1571 32.7% 26.4% 40.9% +0.3 30
2011-11-26 @ Motherwell D 0-0 1571 1527 40.9% 26.4% 32.7% -0.3 18
2011-11-26 Hibernian W 3-1 1521 1445 49.3% 25.4% 25.3% +7.8 23
2011-11-26 @ St. Johnstone L 1-3 1445 1521 25.3% 25.4% 49.3% -7.8 14
2011-11-26 Inverness CT W 2-1 1558 1502 46.7% 25.8% 27.5% +4.9 22
2011-11-26 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1502 1558 27.5% 25.8% 46.7% -4.9 12
2011-11-26 St. Mirren W 5-0 1742 1468 71.1% 17.7% 11.2% +9.1 35
2011-11-26 @ Celtic L 0-5 1468 1742 11.2% 17.7% 71.1% -9.1 20
2011-11-27 Rangers W 1-0 1492 1783 11.8% 18.3% 69.9% +10.7 19
2011-11-27 @ Kilmarnock L 0-1 1783 1492 69.9% 18.3% 11.8% -10.7 39
2011-12-03 Aberdeen W 2-0 1503 1480 42.1% 26.3% 31.6% +10.9 22
2011-12-03 @ Kilmarnock L 0-2 1480 1503 31.6% 26.3% 42.1% -10.9 13
2011-12-03 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-1 1773 1454 75.1% 15.6% 9.3% +1.5 42
2011-12-03 @ Rangers L 1-2 1454 1773 9.3% 15.6% 75.1% -1.6 14
2011-12-03 Inverness CT L 1-2 1459 1497 33.5% 26.4% 40.0% -5.7 20
2011-12-03 @ St. Mirren W 2-1 1497 1459 40.0% 26.4% 33.5% +5.7 15
2011-12-03 St. Johnstone L 1-2 1563 1528 43.8% 26.2% 30.0% -7.0 22
2011-12-03 @ Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 1528 1563 30.0% 26.2% 43.8% +7.0 26
2011-12-04 Celtic L 0-1 1571 1751 18.6% 23.1% 58.3% -3.6 18
2011-12-04 @ Dundee United W 1-0 1751 1571 58.3% 23.1% 18.6% +3.6 38
2011-12-10 Dundee United L 2-3 1503 1567 30.2% 26.2% 43.6% -5.0 15
2011-12-10 @ Inverness CT W 3-2 1567 1503 43.6% 26.2% 30.2% +5.0 21
2011-12-10 Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 1755 1556 63.7% 21.1% 15.2% +2.9 41
2011-12-10 @ Celtic L 0-1 1556 1755 15.2% 21.1% 63.7% -2.9 22
2011-12-10 Motherwell L 0-3 1535 1527 40.1% 26.4% 33.5% -18.9 26
2011-12-10 @ St. Johnstone W 3-0 1527 1535 33.5% 26.4% 40.1% +18.9 33
2011-12-10 Rangers L 0-2 1437 1774 9.8% 16.2% 74.1% -3.3 14
2011-12-10 @ Hibernian W 2-0 1774 1437 74.1% 16.2% 9.8% +3.3 45
2011-12-10 St. Mirren D 2-2 1470 1453 41.2% 26.4% 32.4% -0.2 14
2011-12-10 @ Aberdeen D 2-2 1453 1470 32.4% 26.4% 41.2% +0.2 21
2011-12-13 Aberdeen L 1-2 1517 1469 45.5% 26.0% 28.5% -7.2 26
2011-12-13 @ St. Johnstone W 2-1 1469 1517 28.5% 26.0% 45.5% +7.2 17
2011-12-17 Dundee United D 1-1 1513 1572 30.9% 26.2% 42.9% +0.4 23
2011-12-17 @ Kilmarnock D 1-1 1572 1513 42.9% 26.2% 30.9% -0.4 22
2011-12-17 Dunfermline Athletic W 4-0 1553 1452 52.5% 24.7% 22.8% +15.7 25
2011-12-17 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-4 1452 1553 22.8% 24.7% 52.5% -15.7 14
2011-12-17 Hibernian W 1-0 1476 1434 44.9% 26.1% 29.1% +5.4 20
2011-12-17 @ Aberdeen L 0-1 1434 1476 29.1% 26.1% 44.9% -5.4 14
2011-12-17 Inverness CT W 2-1 1778 1498 71.7% 17.4% 10.9% +1.9 48
2011-12-17 @ Rangers L 1-2 1498 1778 10.9% 17.4% 71.7% -1.9 15
2011-12-17 St. Mirren D 1-1 1546 1454 51.4% 25.0% 23.6% -1.0 34
2011-12-17 @ Motherwell D 1-1 1454 1546 23.6% 25.0% 51.4% +1.0 22
2011-12-18 Celtic L 0-2 1509 1757 14.1% 20.3% 65.6% -5.1 26
2011-12-18 @ St. Johnstone W 2-0 1757 1509 65.6% 20.3% 14.1% +5.1 44
2011-12-24 Aberdeen W 2-1 1496 1482 41.0% 26.4% 32.6% +5.6 18
2011-12-24 @ Inverness CT L 1-2 1482 1496 32.6% 26.4% 41.0% -5.6 20
2011-12-24 Hibernian W 3-1 1572 1428 57.6% 23.3% 19.1% +6.0 25
2011-12-24 @ Dundee United L 1-3 1428 1572 19.1% 23.3% 57.6% -6.0 14
2011-12-24 Kilmarnock W 2-1 1763 1514 68.7% 18.9% 12.4% +2.2 47
2011-12-24 @ Celtic L 1-2 1514 1763 12.4% 18.9% 68.7% -2.2 23
2011-12-24 Motherwell W 2-0 1569 1545 42.3% 26.3% 31.4% +10.8 28
2011-12-24 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-2 1545 1569 31.4% 26.3% 42.3% -10.8 34
2011-12-24 Rangers W 2-1 1455 1780 10.3% 16.8% 73.0% +10.4 25
2011-12-24 @ St. Mirren L 1-2 1780 1455 73.0% 16.8% 10.3% -10.4 48
2011-12-24 St. Johnstone L 0-3 1437 1504 29.8% 26.1% 44.1% -15.0 14
2011-12-24 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 3-0 1504 1437 44.1% 26.1% 29.8% +15.0 29
2011-12-28 Dundee United D 2-2 1465 1578 24.6% 25.2% 50.1% +0.7 26
2011-12-28 @ St. Mirren D 2-2 1578 1465 50.1% 25.2% 24.6% -0.7 26
2011-12-28 Heart of Midlothian D 0-0 1476 1580 25.6% 25.5% 48.9% +0.9 21
2011-12-28 @ Aberdeen D 0-0 1580 1476 48.9% 25.5% 25.6% -0.9 29
2011-12-28 Inverness CT D 1-1 1422 1502 28.3% 25.9% 45.7% +0.6 15
2011-12-28 @ Hibernian D 1-1 1502 1422 45.7% 25.9% 28.3% -0.6 19
2011-12-28 Kilmarnock W 2-0 1519 1512 40.0% 26.4% 33.5% +11.4 32
2011-12-28 @ St. Johnstone L 0-2 1512 1519 33.5% 26.4% 40.0% -11.4 23
2011-12-28 Rangers W 1-0 1765 1769 38.3% 26.5% 35.2% +6.3 50
2011-12-28 @ Celtic L 0-1 1769 1765 35.2% 26.5% 38.3% -6.2 48
2012-01-02 Aberdeen L 1-2 1577 1477 52.3% 24.8% 22.9% -8.0 26
2012-01-02 @ Dundee United W 2-1 1477 1577 22.9% 24.8% 52.3% +8.0 24
2012-01-02 Celtic L 0-3 1422 1771 9.3% 15.6% 75.1% -4.5 14
2012-01-02 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 3-0 1771 1422 75.1% 15.6% 9.3% +4.5 53
2012-01-02 Heart of Midlothian L 1-3 1423 1579 20.6% 24.0% 55.4% -6.5 15
2012-01-02 @ Hibernian W 3-1 1579 1423 55.4% 24.0% 20.6% +6.5 32
2012-01-02 Motherwell W 3-0 1763 1534 66.8% 19.8% 13.5% +7.0 51
2012-01-02 @ Rangers L 0-3 1534 1763 13.5% 19.8% 66.8% -7.0 34
2012-01-02 St. Mirren W 2-1 1500 1466 43.8% 26.2% 30.0% +5.2 26
2012-01-02 @ Kilmarnock L 1-2 1466 1500 30.0% 26.2% 43.8% -5.2 26
2012-01-14 Dundee United W 2-1 1775 1569 64.5% 20.8% 14.7% +2.7 56
2012-01-14 @ Celtic L 1-2 1569 1775 14.7% 20.8% 64.5% -2.7 26
2012-01-14 Hibernian L 2-3 1417 1417 39.0% 26.5% 34.5% -6.0 14
2012-01-14 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 3-2 1417 1417 34.5% 26.5% 39.0% +6.0 18
2012-01-14 Inverness CT L 0-1 1527 1501 42.6% 26.3% 31.1% -7.2 34
2012-01-14 @ Motherwell W 1-0 1501 1527 31.1% 26.3% 42.6% +7.2 22
2012-01-14 Kilmarnock D 0-0 1485 1506 36.0% 26.5% 37.5% +0.0 25
2012-01-14 @ Aberdeen D 0-0 1506 1485 37.5% 26.5% 36.0% -0.1 27
2012-01-14 Rangers L 1-2 1531 1770 14.6% 20.7% 64.7% -2.6 32
2012-01-14 @ St. Johnstone W 2-1 1770 1531 64.7% 20.7% 14.6% +2.6 54
2012-01-14 St. Mirren W 5-2 1585 1460 55.4% 24.0% 20.6% +8.0 35
2012-01-14 @ Heart of Midlothian L 2-5 1460 1585 20.6% 24.0% 55.4% -8.0 26
2012-01-21 Aberdeen D 1-1 1772 1485 72.3% 17.1% 10.6% -2.3 55
2012-01-21 @ Rangers D 1-1 1485 1772 10.6% 17.1% 72.3% +2.3 26
2012-01-21 Celtic L 0-2 1452 1778 10.2% 16.7% 73.0% -3.5 26
2012-01-21 @ St. Mirren W 2-0 1778 1452 73.0% 16.7% 10.2% +3.5 59
2012-01-21 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-3 1505 1411 51.7% 24.9% 23.4% -23.1 27
2012-01-21 @ Kilmarnock W 3-0 1411 1505 23.4% 24.9% 51.7% +23.1 17
2012-01-21 Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 1508 1593 27.7% 25.9% 46.4% +7.7 25
2012-01-21 @ Inverness CT L 0-1 1593 1508 46.4% 25.9% 27.7% -7.7 35
2012-01-21 Motherwell D 1-1 1566 1520 45.4% 26.0% 28.6% -0.6 27
2012-01-21 @ Dundee United D 1-1 1520 1566 28.6% 26.0% 45.4% +0.6 35
2012-01-21 St. Johnstone L 2-3 1423 1528 25.4% 25.4% 49.2% -4.3 18
2012-01-21 @ Hibernian W 3-2 1528 1423 49.2% 25.4% 25.4% +4.3 35
2012-01-24 Dunfermline Athletic W 3-1 1521 1434 50.7% 25.1% 24.2% +7.5 38
2012-01-24 @ Motherwell L 1-3 1434 1521 24.2% 25.1% 50.7% -7.5 17
2012-01-28 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-0 1488 1427 47.3% 25.7% 26.9% +5.1 29
2012-01-28 @ Aberdeen L 0-1 1427 1488 26.9% 25.7% 47.3% -5.1 17
2012-01-28 Hibernian W 4-0 1770 1418 77.8% 14.1% 8.1% +5.0 58
2012-01-28 @ Rangers L 0-4 1418 1770 8.1% 14.1% 77.8% -5.0 18
2012-01-28 St. Johnstone W 3-2 1528 1532 38.3% 26.5% 35.2% +5.6 41
2012-01-28 @ Motherwell L 2-3 1532 1528 35.2% 26.5% 38.3% -5.6 35
2012-01-28 St. Mirren D 0-0 1516 1449 48.1% 25.6% 26.2% -0.9 26
2012-01-28 @ Inverness CT D 0-0 1449 1516 26.2% 25.6% 48.1% +0.9 27
2012-02-07 Kilmarnock D 1-1 1422 1482 30.6% 26.2% 43.2% +0.4 18
2012-02-07 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-1 1482 1422 43.2% 26.2% 30.6% -0.4 28
2012-02-08 Celtic L 0-4 1585 1782 17.4% 22.5% 60.1% -12.1 35
2012-02-08 @ Heart of Midlothian W 4-0 1782 1585 60.1% 22.5% 17.4% +12.1 62
2012-02-11 Aberdeen D 0-0 1413 1493 28.3% 25.9% 45.7% +0.7 19
2012-02-11 @ Hibernian D 0-0 1493 1413 45.7% 25.9% 28.3% -0.7 30
2012-02-11 Dundee United L 1-5 1527 1566 33.4% 26.4% 40.1% -17.9 35
2012-02-11 @ St. Johnstone W 5-1 1566 1527 40.1% 26.4% 33.4% +18.0 30
2012-02-11 Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1482 1573 27.0% 25.7% 47.3% +0.7 29
2012-02-11 @ Kilmarnock D 1-1 1573 1482 47.3% 25.7% 27.0% -0.7 36
2012-02-11 Inverness CT W 1-0 1794 1515 71.5% 17.5% 11.0% +2.0 65
2012-02-11 @ Celtic L 0-1 1515 1794 11.0% 17.5% 71.5% -2.0 26
2012-02-11 Motherwell D 0-0 1450 1534 27.8% 25.9% 46.3% +0.7 28
2012-02-11 @ St. Mirren D 0-0 1534 1450 46.3% 25.9% 27.8% -0.7 42
2012-02-11 Rangers L 1-4 1422 1775 9.1% 15.5% 75.4% -3.7 18
2012-02-11 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 4-1 1775 1422 75.4% 15.5% 9.1% +3.7 61
2012-02-18 Heart of Midlothian W 3-0 1533 1573 33.4% 26.4% 40.2% +18.9 45
2012-02-18 @ Motherwell L 0-3 1573 1533 40.2% 26.4% 33.4% -18.9 36
2012-02-18 Inverness CT D 1-1 1418 1513 26.6% 25.7% 47.8% +0.8 19
2012-02-18 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-1 1513 1418 47.8% 25.7% 26.6% -0.8 27
2012-02-18 Kilmarnock L 0-1 1779 1483 73.1% 16.7% 10.2% -11.1 61
2012-02-18 @ Rangers W 1-0 1483 1779 10.2% 16.7% 73.1% +11.1 32
2012-02-18 St. Mirren D 0-0 1584 1451 56.4% 23.7% 19.9% -1.5 31
2012-02-18 @ Dundee United D 0-0 1451 1584 19.9% 23.7% 56.4% +1.5 29
2012-02-19 Celtic L 0-5 1414 1796 8.1% 14.2% 77.7% -6.2 19
2012-02-19 @ Hibernian W 5-0 1796 1414 77.7% 14.2% 8.1% +6.2 68
2012-02-19 St. Johnstone D 0-0 1492 1509 36.5% 26.5% 37.0% +0.0 31
2012-02-19 @ Aberdeen D 0-0 1509 1492 37.0% 26.5% 36.5% -0.0 36
2012-02-21 Kilmarnock W 4-0 1582 1494 50.9% 25.1% 24.0% +16.4 34
2012-02-21 @ Dundee United L 0-4 1494 1582 24.0% 25.1% 50.9% -16.4 32
2012-02-22 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-0 1802 1419 80.2% 12.8% 7.0% +2.2 71
2012-02-22 @ Celtic L 0-2 1419 1802 7.0% 12.8% 80.2% -2.2 19
2012-02-22 Hibernian W 4-3 1552 1408 57.7% 23.3% 19.0% +3.2 48
2012-02-22 @ Motherwell L 3-4 1408 1552 19.0% 23.3% 57.7% -3.2 19
2012-02-25 Aberdeen D 1-1 1452 1492 33.3% 26.4% 40.3% +0.2 30
2012-02-25 @ St. Mirren D 1-1 1492 1452 40.3% 26.4% 33.3% -0.2 32
2012-02-25 Dundee United L 0-2 1554 1599 32.6% 26.4% 41.0% -11.2 36
2012-02-25 @ Heart of Midlothian W 2-0 1599 1554 41.0% 26.4% 32.6% +11.1 37
2012-02-25 Dunfermline Athletic W 3-1 1509 1417 51.4% 25.0% 23.6% +7.4 39
2012-02-25 @ St. Johnstone L 1-3 1417 1509 23.6% 25.0% 51.4% -7.4 19
2012-02-25 Hibernian L 1-3 1477 1405 48.9% 25.5% 25.6% -13.2 32
2012-02-25 @ Kilmarnock W 3-1 1405 1477 25.6% 25.5% 48.9% +13.2 22
2012-02-25 Motherwell W 1-0 1804 1555 68.8% 18.9% 12.4% +2.3 74
2012-02-25 @ Celtic L 0-1 1555 1804 12.4% 18.9% 68.8% -2.3 48
2012-02-26 Rangers L 1-4 1512 1768 13.7% 20.0% 66.4% -6.0 27
2012-02-26 @ Inverness CT W 4-1 1768 1512 66.4% 20.0% 13.7% +6.0 64
2012-03-03 Celtic D 1-1 1492 1806 10.7% 17.2% 72.0% +2.3 33
2012-03-03 @ Aberdeen D 1-1 1806 1492 72.0% 17.2% 10.7% -2.3 75
2012-03-03 Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1774 1543 67.0% 19.7% 13.3% -9.8 64
2012-03-03 @ Rangers W 2-1 1543 1774 13.3% 19.7% 67.0% +9.8 39
2012-03-03 Motherwell L 0-2 1409 1553 21.7% 24.4% 53.9% -7.9 19
2012-03-03 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-0 1553 1409 53.9% 24.4% 21.7% +7.9 51
2012-03-03 St. Johnstone D 0-0 1464 1516 31.7% 26.3% 42.0% +0.4 33
2012-03-03 @ Kilmarnock D 0-0 1516 1464 42.0% 26.3% 31.7% -0.4 40
2012-03-03 St. Mirren D 0-0 1418 1452 34.0% 26.5% 39.5% +0.2 23
2012-03-03 @ Hibernian D 0-0 1452 1418 39.5% 26.5% 34.0% -0.2 31
2012-03-05 Inverness CT W 3-0 1610 1506 52.8% 24.7% 22.6% +11.9 40
2012-03-05 @ Dundee United L 0-3 1506 1610 22.6% 24.7% 52.8% -11.9 27
2012-03-10 Kilmarnock D 1-1 1495 1465 43.1% 26.2% 30.6% -0.4 28
2012-03-10 @ Inverness CT D 1-1 1465 1495 30.6% 26.2% 43.1% +0.4 34
2012-03-17 Aberdeen W 1-0 1561 1494 48.1% 25.6% 26.3% +5.0 54
2012-03-17 @ Motherwell L 0-1 1494 1561 26.3% 25.6% 48.1% -5.0 33
2012-03-17 Rangers W 2-1 1622 1764 21.8% 24.4% 53.8% +8.2 43
2012-03-17 @ Dundee United L 1-2 1764 1622 53.8% 24.4% 21.8% -8.2 64
2012-03-17 St. Johnstone L 0-3 1452 1516 30.2% 26.2% 43.6% -15.2 31
2012-03-17 @ St. Mirren W 3-0 1516 1452 43.6% 26.2% 30.2% +15.2 43
2012-03-18 Hibernian W 2-0 1552 1418 56.5% 23.7% 19.8% +7.2 42
2012-03-18 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-2 1418 1552 19.8% 23.7% 56.5% -7.2 23
2012-03-24 Dundee United L 0-2 1411 1630 15.8% 21.5% 62.6% -5.8 23
2012-03-24 @ Hibernian W 2-0 1630 1411 62.6% 21.5% 15.8% +5.8 46
2012-03-24 Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 1531 1560 34.9% 26.5% 38.6% +6.3 46
2012-03-24 @ St. Johnstone L 1-2 1560 1531 38.6% 26.5% 34.9% -6.3 42
2012-03-24 Inverness CT L 0-1 1489 1494 38.2% 26.5% 35.3% -6.7 33
2012-03-24 @ Aberdeen W 1-0 1494 1489 35.3% 26.5% 38.2% +6.7 31
2012-03-24 Motherwell W 2-0 1465 1566 25.9% 25.5% 48.5% +15.1 37
2012-03-24 @ Kilmarnock L 0-2 1566 1465 48.5% 25.5% 25.9% -15.1 54
2012-03-24 St. Mirren D 1-1 1402 1437 33.9% 26.5% 39.6% +0.2 20
2012-03-24 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-1 1437 1402 39.6% 26.5% 33.9% -0.2 32
2012-03-25 Celtic W 3-2 1756 1804 32.2% 26.4% 41.4% +6.3 67
2012-03-25 @ Rangers L 2-3 1804 1756 41.4% 26.4% 32.2% -6.3 75
2012-03-28 St. Johnstone L 0-1 1501 1537 33.8% 26.5% 39.8% -6.1 31
2012-03-28 @ Inverness CT W 1-0 1537 1501 39.8% 26.5% 33.8% +6.1 49
2012-03-31 Aberdeen W 3-0 1553 1483 48.6% 25.5% 25.9% +13.4 45
2012-03-31 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-3 1483 1553 25.9% 25.5% 48.6% -13.4 33
2012-03-31 Dunfermline Athletic W 3-0 1636 1402 67.3% 19.5% 13.2% +6.8 49
2012-03-31 @ Dundee United L 0-3 1402 1636 13.2% 19.5% 67.3% -6.8 20
2012-03-31 Kilmarnock W 4-2 1437 1480 32.9% 26.4% 40.8% +10.2 35
2012-03-31 @ St. Mirren L 2-4 1480 1437 40.8% 26.4% 32.9% -10.2 37
2012-03-31 Rangers L 1-2 1551 1762 16.4% 21.9% 61.8% -3.0 54
2012-03-31 @ Motherwell W 2-1 1762 1551 61.8% 21.9% 16.4% +3.0 70
2012-04-01 Hibernian L 2-3 1495 1405 51.1% 25.1% 23.9% -7.5 31
2012-04-01 @ Inverness CT W 3-2 1405 1495 23.9% 25.1% 51.1% +7.5 26
2012-04-01 St. Johnstone W 2-0 1798 1543 69.3% 18.6% 12.1% +4.2 78
2012-04-01 @ Celtic L 0-2 1543 1798 12.1% 18.6% 69.3% -4.2 49
2012-04-07 Celtic L 0-6 1470 1802 10.0% 16.4% 73.6% -9.4 37
2012-04-07 @ Kilmarnock W 6-0 1802 1470 73.6% 16.4% 10.0% +9.4 81
2012-04-07 Dundee United W 3-1 1469 1643 19.1% 23.4% 57.5% +15.0 36
2012-04-07 @ Aberdeen L 1-3 1643 1469 57.5% 23.4% 19.1% -15.0 49
2012-04-07 Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1395 1567 19.3% 23.4% 57.3% -3.5 20
2012-04-07 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-1 1567 1395 57.3% 23.4% 19.3% +3.5 48
2012-04-07 Inverness CT D 0-0 1539 1487 46.1% 25.9% 28.0% -0.7 50
2012-04-07 @ St. Johnstone D 0-0 1487 1539 28.0% 25.9% 46.1% +0.7 32
2012-04-07 St. Mirren W 3-1 1765 1447 75.0% 15.7% 9.3% +2.7 73
2012-04-07 @ Rangers L 1-3 1447 1765 9.3% 15.7% 75.0% -2.7 35
2012-04-08 Motherwell D 1-1 1412 1548 22.4% 24.6% 52.9% +1.1 27
2012-04-08 @ Hibernian D 1-1 1548 1412 52.9% 24.6% 22.4% -1.1 55

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2012-04-21 Aberdeen L 0-2 1488 1484 39.5% 26.5% 34.1% -12.8 0
2012-04-21 @ Inverness CT W 2-0 1484 1488 34.1% 26.5% 39.5% +12.8 3
2012-04-21 Dundee United L 0-2 1539 1627 27.2% 25.8% 47.0% -9.6 0
2012-04-21 @ St. Johnstone W 2-0 1627 1539 47.0% 25.8% 27.2% +9.6 3
2012-04-21 Dunfermline Athletic D 4-4 1444 1391 46.2% 25.9% 27.9% -0.4 1
2012-04-21 @ St. Mirren D 4-4 1391 1444 27.9% 25.9% 46.2% +0.4 1
2012-04-21 Rangers L 0-3 1570 1768 17.3% 22.4% 60.2% -9.2 0
2012-04-21 @ Heart of Midlothian W 3-0 1768 1570 60.2% 22.4% 17.3% +9.2 3
2012-04-22 Celtic L 0-3 1547 1811 13.2% 19.5% 67.3% -6.8 0
2012-04-22 @ Motherwell W 3-0 1811 1547 67.3% 19.5% 13.2% +6.8 3
2012-04-22 Kilmarnock L 0-1 1414 1461 32.4% 26.4% 41.2% -5.9 0
2012-04-22 @ Hibernian W 1-0 1461 1414 41.2% 26.4% 32.4% +5.9 3
2012-04-28 Aberdeen W 3-0 1392 1497 25.4% 25.4% 49.1% +22.2 4
2012-04-28 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-3 1497 1392 49.1% 25.4% 25.4% -22.2 3
2012-04-28 Heart of Midlothian D 2-2 1637 1561 49.3% 25.4% 25.3% -0.6 4
2012-04-28 @ Dundee United D 2-2 1561 1637 25.3% 25.4% 49.3% +0.6 1
2012-04-28 Inverness CT W 4-3 1466 1475 37.7% 26.5% 35.8% +5.5 6
2012-04-28 @ Kilmarnock L 3-4 1475 1466 35.8% 26.5% 37.7% -5.5 0
2012-04-28 St. Johnstone W 5-1 1540 1529 40.5% 26.4% 33.1% +17.8 3
2012-04-28 @ Motherwell L 1-5 1529 1540 33.1% 26.4% 40.5% -17.8 0
2012-04-29 Hibernian W 1-0 1444 1408 44.0% 26.2% 29.8% +5.5 4
2012-04-29 @ St. Mirren L 0-1 1408 1444 29.8% 26.2% 44.0% -5.5 0
2012-04-29 Rangers W 3-0 1818 1777 44.7% 26.1% 29.2% +14.8 6
2012-04-29 @ Celtic L 0-3 1777 1818 29.2% 26.1% 44.7% -14.8 3
2012-05-01 Motherwell L 0-1 1562 1558 39.5% 26.5% 34.0% -6.8 1
2012-05-01 @ Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 1558 1562 34.0% 26.5% 39.5% +6.8 6
2012-05-02 Dundee United W 5-0 1762 1636 55.5% 24.0% 20.6% +17.5 6
2012-05-02 @ Rangers L 0-5 1636 1762 20.6% 24.0% 55.5% -17.5 4
2012-05-02 Dunfermline Athletic D 0-0 1470 1414 46.6% 25.8% 27.5% -0.8 1
2012-05-02 @ Inverness CT D 0-0 1414 1470 27.5% 25.8% 46.6% +0.8 5
2012-05-02 Hibernian L 1-2 1475 1402 48.9% 25.5% 25.6% -7.6 3
2012-05-02 @ Aberdeen W 2-1 1402 1475 25.6% 25.5% 48.9% +7.6 3
2012-05-02 St. Mirren L 0-2 1472 1449 42.1% 26.3% 31.6% -13.5 6
2012-05-02 @ Kilmarnock W 2-0 1449 1472 31.6% 26.3% 42.1% +13.5 7
2012-05-03 St. Johnstone W 1-0 1833 1511 75.4% 15.5% 9.2% +1.6 9
2012-05-03 @ Celtic L 0-1 1511 1833 9.2% 15.5% 75.4% -1.6 0
2012-05-05 Aberdeen D 1-1 1458 1467 37.7% 26.5% 35.8% -0.1 7
2012-05-05 @ Kilmarnock D 1-1 1467 1458 35.8% 26.5% 37.7% +0.1 4
2012-05-05 Inverness CT L 0-1 1463 1469 38.1% 26.5% 35.4% -6.6 7
2012-05-05 @ St. Mirren W 1-0 1469 1463 35.4% 26.5% 38.1% +6.6 4
2012-05-05 Motherwell D 0-0 1780 1564 65.4% 20.4% 14.2% -2.2 7
2012-05-05 @ Rangers D 0-0 1564 1780 14.2% 20.4% 65.4% +2.2 7
2012-05-06 Celtic W 1-0 1619 1835 16.1% 21.7% 62.2% +9.8 7
2012-05-06 @ Dundee United L 0-1 1835 1619 62.2% 21.7% 16.1% -9.8 9
2012-05-06 St. Johnstone W 2-0 1555 1509 45.3% 26.0% 28.7% +10.1 4
2012-05-06 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-2 1509 1555 28.7% 26.0% 45.3% -10.1 0
2012-05-07 Dunfermline Athletic W 4-0 1410 1415 38.2% 26.5% 35.3% +22.4 6
2012-05-07 @ Hibernian L 0-4 1415 1410 35.3% 26.5% 38.2% -22.4 5
2012-05-12 Hibernian W 2-0 1475 1432 45.0% 26.0% 29.0% +10.1 7
2012-05-12 @ Inverness CT L 0-2 1432 1475 29.0% 26.0% 45.0% -10.1 6
2012-05-12 Kilmarnock L 1-2 1392 1458 29.9% 26.2% 43.9% -5.2 5
2012-05-12 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-1 1458 1392 43.9% 26.2% 29.9% +5.2 10
2012-05-12 St. Mirren D 0-0 1467 1456 40.5% 26.4% 33.1% -0.3 5
2012-05-12 @ Aberdeen D 0-0 1456 1467 33.1% 26.4% 40.5% +0.3 8
2012-05-13 Dundee United L 0-2 1567 1629 30.4% 26.2% 43.4% -10.5 7
2012-05-13 @ Motherwell W 2-0 1629 1567 43.4% 26.2% 30.4% +10.5 10
2012-05-13 Heart of Midlothian W 5-0 1825 1565 69.8% 18.3% 11.8% +9.7 12
2012-05-13 @ Celtic L 0-5 1565 1825 11.8% 18.3% 69.8% -9.7 4
2012-05-13 Rangers L 0-4 1499 1777 12.5% 18.9% 68.6% -8.4 0
2012-05-13 @ St. Johnstone W 4-0 1777 1499 68.6% 18.9% 12.5% +8.3 10

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2012-02-18 10.19% Kilmarnock 1483 1 @ Rangers 1779 0
2 2011-12-24 10.27% @ St. Mirren 1455 2 Rangers 1780 1
3 2011-08-21 10.73% St. Johnstone 1469 1 @ Celtic 1753 0
4 2011-11-27 11.79% @ Kilmarnock 1492 1 Rangers 1783 0
5 2012-03-03 13.32% Heart of Midlothian 1543 2 @ Rangers 1774 1
6 2012-05-06 16.07% @ Dundee United 1619 1 Celtic 1835 0
7 2011-10-02 17.24% @ Heart of Midlothian 1552 2 Celtic 1751 0
8 2012-04-07 19.14% @ Aberdeen 1469 3 Dundee United 1643 1
9 2012-03-17 21.80% @ Dundee United 1622 2 Rangers 1764 1
10 2012-01-02 22.88% Aberdeen 1477 2 @ Dundee United 1577 1
11 2012-01-21 23.41% Dunfermline Athletic 1411 3 @ Kilmarnock 1505 0
12 2012-04-01 23.87% Hibernian 1405 3 @ Inverness CT 1495 2
13 2011-10-01 24.37% Motherwell 1500 3 @ Dundee United 1585 1
14 2011-10-29 25.23% Kilmarnock 1497 1 @ Heart of Midlothian 1573 0
15 2011-07-30 25.36% Hibernian 1461 1 @ Inverness CT 1536 0
16 2012-04-28 25.43% @ Dunfermline Athletic 1392 3 Aberdeen 1497 0
17 2011-10-29 25.62% St. Mirren 1453 1 @ St. Johnstone 1526 0
18 2012-02-25 25.64% Hibernian 1405 3 @ Kilmarnock 1477 1
19 2012-05-02 25.64% Hibernian 1402 2 @ Aberdeen 1475 1
20 2011-08-20 25.84% Dunfermline Athletic 1518 1 @ Dundee United 1589 0
21 2012-03-24 25.93% @ Kilmarnock 1465 2 Motherwell 1566 0
22 2011-10-15 26.72% @ Aberdeen 1478 3 Dundee United 1571 1
23 2011-09-24 27.58% @ St. Mirren 1441 3 Kilmarnock 1527 0
24 2012-01-21 27.70% @ Inverness CT 1508 1 Heart of Midlothian 1593 0
25 2011-12-13 28.52% Aberdeen 1469 2 @ St. Johnstone 1517 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2011-09-30 25.31 @ Aberdeen 4 1452 32.20% Dunfermline Athletic 0 1501 41.44% 26.36%
2 2012-01-21 23.10 Dunfermline Athletic 3 1411 23.41% @ Kilmarnock 0 1505 51.66% 24.92%
3 2012-05-07 22.42 @ Hibernian 4 1410 38.24% Dunfermline Athletic 0 1415 35.26% 26.49%
4 2012-04-28 22.18 @ Dunfermline Athletic 3 1392 25.43% Aberdeen 0 1497 49.14% 25.43%
5 2011-09-24 21.24 @ St. Mirren 3 1441 27.58% Kilmarnock 0 1527 46.59% 25.84%
6 2011-07-23 20.30 @ Motherwell 3 1489 29.86% Inverness CT 0 1556 43.99% 26.15%
7 2011-09-17 20.19 St. Johnstone 3 1480 30.12% @ Motherwell 0 1514 43.71% 26.18%
8 2012-02-18 18.93 @ Motherwell 3 1533 33.36% Heart of Midlothian 0 1573 40.22% 26.43%
9 2011-12-10 18.89 Motherwell 3 1527 33.46% @ St. Johnstone 0 1535 40.11% 26.43%
10 2011-10-02 18.08 @ Heart of Midlothian 2 1552 17.24% Celtic 0 1751 60.37% 22.39%
11 2012-02-11 17.95 Dundee United 5 1566 40.13% @ St. Johnstone 1 1527 33.44% 26.43%
12 2012-04-28 17.82 @ Motherwell 5 1540 40.48% St. Johnstone 1 1529 33.11% 26.41%
13 2012-05-02 17.53 @ Rangers 5 1762 55.48% Dundee United 0 1636 20.56% 23.96%
14 2012-02-21 16.40 @ Dundee United 4 1582 50.92% Kilmarnock 0 1494 24.00% 25.08%
15 2011-12-17 15.67 @ Heart of Midlothian 4 1553 52.47% Dunfermline Athletic 0 1452 22.79% 24.74%
16 2012-03-17 15.25 St. Johnstone 3 1516 43.58% @ St. Mirren 0 1452 30.23% 26.19%
17 2012-03-24 15.12 @ Kilmarnock 2 1465 25.93% Motherwell 0 1566 48.54% 25.53%
18 2012-04-07 15.05 @ Aberdeen 3 1469 19.14% Dundee United 1 1643 57.50% 23.36%
19 2011-12-24 15.04 St. Johnstone 3 1504 44.12% @ Dunfermline Athletic 0 1437 29.75% 26.14%
20 2012-04-29 14.83 @ Celtic 3 1818 44.71% Rangers 0 1777 29.22% 26.07%
21 2011-09-25 13.94 @ St. Johnstone 2 1501 29.99% Heart of Midlothian 0 1566 43.85% 26.16%
22 2011-10-01 13.51 Motherwell 3 1500 24.37% @ Dundee United 1 1585 50.45% 25.18%
23 2012-05-02 13.51 St. Mirren 2 1449 31.57% @ Kilmarnock 0 1472 42.12% 26.31%
24 2011-08-13 13.48 @ Heart of Midlothian 3 1537 48.42% Aberdeen 0 1468 26.03% 25.55%
25 2012-03-31 13.40 @ Heart of Midlothian 3 1553 48.63% Aberdeen 0 1483 25.85% 25.52%