2009-10 Scottish Premier League Season

228 games

Final

Champion

Rangers

87 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

St. Mirren

29.60 points above expected

34 points · 63.60 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Rangers

77.38 points below expected

87 points · 164.38 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rangers 33 23 8 2 77 73 22 +51 69.18 +7.82
2 Celtic 33 20 6 7 66 62 35 +27 65.65 +0.35
3 Dundee United 33 16 11 6 59 51 39 +12 48.65 +10.35
4 Hibernian 33 14 8 11 50 47 43 +4 50.21 -0.21
5 Motherwell 33 12 12 9 48 39 38 +1 45.93 +2.07
6 Heart of Midlothian 33 12 8 13 44 32 39 -7 42.34 +1.66
7 St. Johnstone 33 11 8 14 41 50 54 -4 38.03 +2.97
8 Hamilton Academical 33 9 9 15 36 29 43 -14 33.75 +2.25
9 Aberdeen 33 8 10 15 34 31 46 -15 42.99 -8.99
10 Kilmarnock 33 7 8 18 29 26 44 -18 36.14 -7.14
11 St. Mirren 33 6 10 17 28 32 45 -13 34.94 -6.94
12 Falkirk 33 6 10 17 28 30 54 -24 33.10 -5.10
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rangers 38 26 9 3 87 82 28 +54 164.38 -77.38
2 Celtic 38 25 6 7 81 75 39 +36 140.36 -59.36
3 Dundee United 38 17 12 9 63 55 47 +8 124.98 -61.98
4 Hibernian 38 15 9 14 54 58 55 +3 105.05 -51.05
5 Motherwell 38 13 14 11 53 52 54 -2 101.49 -48.49
6 Heart of Midlothian 38 13 9 16 48 35 46 -11 92.75 -44.75
7 Hamilton Academical 38 13 10 15 49 39 46 -7 84.26 -35.26
8 St. Johnstone 38 12 11 15 47 57 61 -4 85.47 -38.47
9 Aberdeen 38 10 11 17 41 36 52 -16 74.33 -33.33
10 St. Mirren 38 7 13 18 34 36 49 -13 63.60 -29.60
11 Kilmarnock 38 8 9 21 33 29 51 -22 63.14 -30.14
12 Falkirk 38 6 13 19 31 31 57 -26 61.85 -30.85

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rangers 1892 87 69.18 +17.82 89.8% 42 58 65 69 74 80 92
Celtic 1838 81 65.65 +15.35 54.2% 39 54 61 66 70 77 88
Dundee United 1682 63 48.65 +14.35 93.2% 22 37 44 49 54 60 75
Motherwell 1644 53 45.93 +7.07 64.3% 21 34 41 46 51 58 75
Hibernian 1630 54 50.21 +3.79 52.0% 23 38 45 50 55 62 75
Hamilton Academical 1629 49 33.75 +15.25 66.5% 12 23 29 34 38 45 58
St. Johnstone 1626 47 38.03 +8.97 69.4% 15 27 33 38 43 50 62
Heart of Midlothian 1598 48 42.34 +5.66 63.0% 15 31 38 42 47 54 72
St. Mirren 1553 34 34.94 -0.94 17.4% 13 24 30 35 40 46 65
Aberdeen 1539 41 42.99 -1.99 11.3% 17 31 38 43 48 55 69
Kilmarnock 1510 33 36.14 -3.14 17.0% 15 25 31 36 41 48 62
Falkirk 1509 31 33.10 -2.10 25.1% 10 22 28 33 38 44 59

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ABE CEL DU FAL HA HOM HIB KIL MOT RAN SJ SM
Aberdeen
0-1-2
2.41
1-1-1
3.67
1-1-2
6.56
1-1-2
6.04
1-1-1
4.16
0-1-2
3.07
1-1-2
6.41
0-2-1
4.26
1-1-1
1.97
1-1-2
5.01
3-0-1
5.87
Celtic
2-1-0
5.80
2-1-1
7.30
1-2-0
6.71
3-0-0
6.66
3-0-1
8.32
3-0-1
7.46
2-0-1
6.66
3-1-0
7.94
1-1-2
4.59
3-0-0
6.42
2-0-1
6.58
Dundee United
1-1-1
4.47
1-1-2
3.63
3-0-0
5.36
1-1-1
5.58
2-2-0
6.33
2-1-1
5.62
1-2-0
5.30
2-1-1
5.83
0-1-3
3.30
2-1-0
5.03
2-1-0
5.20
Falkirk
2-1-1
4.30
0-2-1
1.65
0-0-3
2.81
1-2-1
4.97
0-1-2
3.11
0-0-3
2.99
1-2-1
5.21
1-1-1
2.74
0-0-3
1.64
0-2-2
4.22
1-2-1
5.19
Hamilton Academical
2-1-1
4.81
0-0-3
1.69
1-1-1
2.62
1-2-1
5.87
1-0-2
3.12
2-0-1
2.87
2-1-1
5.55
0-2-1
2.85
0-0-3
1.39
2-1-1
5.00
2-2-0
5.46
Heart of Midlothian
1-1-1
3.98
1-0-3
2.71
0-2-2
4.52
2-1-0
5.04
2-0-1
5.03
2-2-0
4.49
3-0-0
4.72
1-0-3
5.03
0-1-3
2.44
0-1-2
4.53
1-1-1
4.67
Hibernian
2-1-0
5.09
1-0-3
3.46
1-1-2
5.23
3-0-0
5.18
1-0-2
5.31
0-2-2
6.36
2-1-0
5.45
2-1-1
5.16
0-1-3
3.02
1-1-1
5.22
2-1-0
5.57
Kilmarnock
2-1-1
4.44
1-0-2
1.69
0-2-1
2.88
1-2-1
5.63
1-1-2
5.29
0-0-3
3.42
0-1-2
2.73
0-0-3
3.32
0-1-2
1.73
3-0-1
5.14
0-1-3
5.61
Motherwell
1-2-0
3.87
0-1-3
3.04
1-1-2
5.01
1-1-1
5.45
1-2-0
5.32
3-0-1
5.82
1-1-2
5.68
3-0-0
4.83
0-3-1
2.71
1-1-1
4.66
1-2-0
5.04
Rangers
1-1-1
6.34
2-1-1
6.26
3-1-0
7.65
3-0-0
6.74
3-0-0
7.04
3-1-0
8.67
3-1-0
7.97
2-1-0
6.62
1-3-0
8.33
2-0-1
6.65
3-0-0
7.10
St. Johnstone
2-1-1
5.85
0-0-3
1.88
0-1-2
3.12
2-2-0
6.64
1-1-2
5.84
2-1-0
3.60
1-1-1
2.94
1-0-3
5.71
1-1-1
3.47
1-0-2
1.69
1-3-0
5.88
St. Mirren
1-0-3
4.98
1-0-2
1.75
0-1-2
2.97
1-2-1
5.64
0-2-2
5.39
1-1-1
3.46
0-1-2
2.63
3-1-0
5.24
0-2-1
3.11
0-0-3
1.34
0-3-1
4.97

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.87 +9.6
Allowed 0.58 -15.5
Differential 0.95 +7.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.09%10.09%5.48%3.73%0.44%29.82%
110.09%10.96%7.89%3.73%1.75%0.88%35.31%
25.48%7.89%3.51%1.75%0.22%0.22%19.08%
33.73%3.73%1.75%1.75%10.96%
40.44%1.75%0.22%0.88%3.29%
5+0.88%0.22%0.44%1.54%
Total29.82%35.31%19.08%10.96%3.29%1.54%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.28 +0.00
SD 1.22 1.22 1.65
CV 0.95 0.95
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 228

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.89%10.53%10.53%5.26%34.21%
115.79%13.16%5.26%13.16%47.37%
25.26%5.26%10.53%
35.26%5.26%
42.63%2.63%
5+
Total28.95%28.95%21.05%18.42%2.63%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.95 1.37 -0.42
SD 0.96 1.17 1.46
CV 1.01 0.86
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.63%5.26%2.63%10.53%
110.53%7.89%10.53%28.95%
213.16%13.16%26.32%
37.89%7.89%5.26%2.63%23.68%
42.63%2.63%2.63%7.89%
5+2.63%2.63%
Total36.84%36.84%18.42%2.63%5.26%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.97 1.03 +0.95
SD 1.24 1.08 1.58
CV 0.63 1.05
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.16%7.89%7.89%2.63%31.58%
110.53%7.89%2.63%2.63%23.68%
27.89%7.89%5.26%21.05%
35.26%7.89%2.63%15.79%
42.63%2.63%2.63%7.89%
5+
Total36.84%26.32%26.32%5.26%2.63%2.63%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.24 +0.21
SD 1.31 1.42 1.74
CV 0.90 1.15
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.42%13.16%5.26%5.26%42.11%
15.26%10.53%5.26%13.16%5.26%39.47%
22.63%5.26%2.63%2.63%13.16%
32.63%2.63%5.26%
4
5+
Total26.32%31.58%13.16%23.68%5.26%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.82 1.50 -0.68
SD 0.87 1.27 1.34
CV 1.06 0.85
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.16%13.16%10.53%5.26%42.11%
17.89%7.89%5.26%2.63%2.63%26.32%
27.89%7.89%5.26%21.05%
32.63%2.63%2.63%7.89%
42.63%2.63%
5+
Total31.58%34.21%23.68%5.26%2.63%2.63%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.21 -0.18
SD 1.10 1.19 1.69
CV 1.07 0.98
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.53%7.89%10.53%2.63%31.58%
115.79%10.53%15.79%2.63%2.63%47.37%
22.63%13.16%2.63%18.42%
32.63%2.63%
4
5+
Total28.95%31.58%31.58%5.26%2.63%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.92 1.21 -0.29
SD 0.78 1.02 1.27
CV 0.85 0.84
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.63%13.16%2.63%2.63%21.05%
15.26%15.79%5.26%5.26%2.63%34.21%
213.16%7.89%2.63%2.63%2.63%28.95%
32.63%7.89%10.53%
4
5+2.63%2.63%5.26%
Total23.68%47.37%10.53%5.26%7.89%5.26%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 1.45 +0.08
SD 1.33 1.48 1.81
CV 0.87 1.02
Max 6 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.16%21.05%5.26%10.53%50.00%
17.89%7.89%13.16%5.26%34.21%
22.63%5.26%7.89%
32.63%2.63%5.26%
42.63%2.63%
5+
Total26.32%34.21%21.05%15.79%2.63%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.76 1.34 -0.58
SD 1.00 1.12 1.39
CV 1.31 0.84
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.79%5.26%2.63%2.63%2.63%28.95%
115.79%5.26%2.63%5.26%2.63%31.58%
25.26%2.63%7.89%5.26%21.05%
35.26%5.26%5.26%15.79%
4
5+2.63%2.63%
Total42.11%18.42%13.16%18.42%2.63%5.26%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.37 1.42 -0.05
SD 1.30 1.65 1.71
CV 0.95 1.16
Max 6 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.53%2.63%13.16%
110.53%10.53%2.63%2.63%26.32%
27.89%13.16%21.05%
313.16%7.89%2.63%23.68%
410.53%10.53%
5+5.26%5.26%
Total42.11%50.00%2.63%2.63%2.63%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.16 0.74 +1.42
SD 1.60 0.86 1.72
CV 0.74 1.17
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.63%7.89%7.89%18.42%
17.89%15.79%10.53%2.63%36.84%
22.63%7.89%7.89%7.89%2.63%28.95%
37.89%2.63%10.53%
42.63%2.63%
5+2.63%2.63%
Total13.16%44.74%18.42%18.42%2.63%2.63%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.61 -0.11
SD 1.16 1.17 1.66
CV 0.77 0.73
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.53%13.16%10.53%34.21%
17.89%18.42%15.79%5.26%47.37%
25.26%2.63%2.63%10.53%
32.63%2.63%5.26%
42.63%2.63%
5+
Total21.05%39.47%28.95%10.53%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.95 1.29 -0.34
SD 0.96 0.93 1.24
CV 1.01 0.72
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 38

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 St. Mirren 34 63.60 -29.60
2 Kilmarnock 33 63.14 -30.14
3 Falkirk 31 61.85 -30.85
4 Aberdeen 41 74.33 -33.33
5 Hamilton Academical 49 84.26 -35.26

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Rangers 87 164.38 -77.38
2 Dundee United 63 124.98 -61.98
3 Celtic 81 140.36 -59.36
4 Hibernian 54 105.05 -51.05
5 Motherwell 53 101.49 -48.49

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Celtic 8 Mar 27 – May 9 1 in 230
2 Kilmarnock 3 Feb 2 – Feb 13 1 in 80
3 Hamilton Academical 4 Apr 10 – May 1 1 in 49
4 Dundee United 3 Oct 24 – Nov 22 1 in 37
5 Heart of Midlothian 3 Dec 20 – Dec 30 1 in 37

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hibernian 6 Mar 31 – May 1 1 in 214
2 Motherwell 5 Dec 5 – Dec 30 1 in 60
3 Kilmarnock 5 Feb 27 – Mar 27 1 in 21
4 Aberdeen 3 Dec 5 – Dec 19 1 in 19
5 Heart of Midlothian 3 Jan 27 – Feb 10 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Motherwell 12 Jan 16 – Mar 13 1 in 79
2 Hibernian 12 Sep 19 – Dec 19 1 in 74
3 Heart of Midlothian 7 Dec 12 – Jan 23 1 in 71
4 Kilmarnock 6 Jan 26 – Feb 20 1 in 38
5 Dundee United 9 Sep 26 – Dec 12 1 in 37

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Aberdeen 9 Jan 30 – Mar 20 1 in 44
2 Falkirk 11 Aug 15 – Nov 8 1 in 33
3 Motherwell 8 Nov 7 – Dec 30 1 in 25
4 St. Mirren 11 Jan 16 – Mar 13 1 in 19
5 Heart of Midlothian 6 Oct 3 – Nov 21 1 in 17

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team123456789101112
Rangers64.58%30.77%3.67%0.75%0.15%0.07%0.01%
Celtic33.46%54.44%8.62%2.50%0.58%0.28%0.08%0.02%0.02%
Dundee United0.53%4.66%24.83%21.77%16.76%11.68%7.88%5.34%3.28%1.90%1.05%0.32%
Hibernian1.02%6.04%30.59%22.64%15.51%9.45%6.27%3.94%2.32%1.39%0.68%0.15%
Motherwell0.18%2.21%13.87%18.98%17.96%14.82%11.80%8.25%5.69%3.10%2.23%0.91%
Heart of Midlothian0.09%0.66%6.37%10.59%13.20%15.89%14.95%13.22%10.09%7.22%5.14%2.58%
Hamilton Academical0.06%0.51%1.36%2.73%4.76%7.40%9.94%12.99%16.86%19.71%23.68%
St. Johnstone0.01%0.15%2.06%4.53%7.91%10.20%12.48%14.40%14.78%13.46%11.38%8.64%
Aberdeen0.09%0.92%6.99%11.50%14.05%15.71%14.39%12.86%9.37%6.93%4.70%2.49%
St. Mirren0.02%0.05%0.72%1.85%3.93%6.19%8.69%11.36%13.97%17.03%17.83%18.36%
Kilmarnock0.02%0.04%1.26%2.43%5.05%7.25%9.97%12.31%14.86%15.98%15.92%14.91%
Falkirk0.51%1.10%2.17%3.70%6.09%8.35%12.63%16.13%21.36%27.96%
Team123456789101112
Rangers99.95%0.05%
Celtic0.05%97.38%2.57%
Dundee United2.57%96.86%0.57%
Hibernian0.47%64.15%31.62%3.76%
Motherwell0.10%32.33%56.24%11.33%
Heart of Midlothian2.95%12.14%84.91%
Hamilton Academical79.19%18.67%2.09%0.05%
St. Johnstone18.64%64.22%14.66%2.20%0.26%0.02%
Aberdeen2.14%14.98%61.44%15.88%4.86%0.70%
St. Mirren0.02%1.25%11.52%40.43%29.02%17.76%
Kilmarnock0.40%5.54%22.85%35.35%35.86%
Falkirk0.01%0.48%4.75%18.59%30.51%45.66%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Points Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+10.09%
Slight Edge
41.23%27.63%31.14%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 35.17 Elo pts.
199 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.25 goals
Neutral
-2+0.18+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.9
One-Team Race
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
65%
Rangers, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.16/gm
Tight Race
00.200.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.54 * Some Luck: 5.54 to 8.31 * Lucky: 8.31 to 11.09 * Wild Swing: 11.09 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.28 * Close: 1.28 to 1.92 * Off: 1.92 to 2.56 * Way Off: 2.56 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.74 points
Some Luck
06.9317
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.604
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
93.23%
Dundee United
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
11.30%
Aberdeen
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.18
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.93
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
66%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
89%
Strong Edge
50%90%100%
Close Games
Expected
67%
Very Frequent
0%64%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Frequent
0%13%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.36
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.68
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.62
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Chalky
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
16%
As Expected
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
0.67
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.13
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.056
Well Within Noise
00.1190.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff
Celtic 100%
Rangers 100%
Dundee United 99.78% 0.22%
Hibernian 99.75% 0.25%
Motherwell 99.38% 0.62%
Heart of Midlothian 97.53% 2.47%
Aberdeen 96.74% 3.26%
St. Johnstone 93.31% 6.69%
Kilmarnock 83.28% 16.72%
St. Mirren 81.13% 18.87%
Hamilton Academical 78.79% 21.21%
Falkirk 70.31% 29.69%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff
Celtic 100%
Dundee United 100%
Hamilton Academical 100%
Heart of Midlothian 100%
Hibernian 100%
Motherwell 100%
Rangers 100%
St. Johnstone 99.98% 0.02%
Aberdeen 99.30% 0.70%
St. Mirren 82.24% 17.76%
Kilmarnock 64.14% 35.86%
Falkirk 54.34% 45.66%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2009-08-15 Celtic L 1-3 1642 1784 22.4% 27.9% 49.8% -10.5 0
2009-08-15 @ Aberdeen W 3-1 1784 1642 49.8% 27.9% 22.4% +10.5 3
2009-08-15 Falkirk W 4-1 1784 1597 62.5% 23.7% 13.7% +9.2 3
2009-08-15 @ Rangers L 1-4 1597 1784 13.7% 23.7% 62.5% -9.2 0
2009-08-15 Hamilton Academical W 3-0 1601 1580 43.2% 28.9% 27.9% +21.1 3
2009-08-15 @ Kilmarnock L 0-3 1580 1601 27.9% 28.9% 43.2% -21.1 0
2009-08-15 Motherwell D 2-2 1574 1625 33.0% 29.3% 37.7% +0.2 1
2009-08-15 @ St. Johnstone D 2-2 1625 1574 37.7% 29.3% 33.0% -0.2 1
2009-08-15 St. Mirren W 2-1 1633 1566 49.1% 28.0% 22.9% +6.2 3
2009-08-15 @ Hibernian L 1-2 1566 1633 22.9% 28.0% 49.1% -6.2 0
2009-08-17 Heart of Midlothian W 2-0 1624 1642 37.8% 29.3% 32.9% +16.4 3
2009-08-17 @ Dundee United L 0-2 1642 1624 32.9% 29.3% 37.8% -16.4 0
2009-08-22 Aberdeen L 0-3 1559 1631 30.2% 29.1% 40.6% -22.4 0
2009-08-22 @ Hamilton Academical W 3-0 1631 1559 40.6% 29.1% 30.2% +22.4 3
2009-08-22 Dundee United D 0-0 1560 1640 29.2% 29.0% 41.7% +0.7 1
2009-08-22 @ St. Mirren D 0-0 1640 1560 41.7% 29.0% 29.2% -0.7 4
2009-08-22 Hibernian L 1-3 1588 1639 33.1% 29.3% 37.6% -14.3 0
2009-08-22 @ Falkirk W 3-1 1639 1588 37.6% 29.3% 33.1% +14.3 6
2009-08-22 Kilmarnock W 3-1 1625 1622 40.8% 29.1% 30.1% +13.3 4
2009-08-22 @ Motherwell L 1-3 1622 1625 30.1% 29.1% 40.8% -13.3 3
2009-08-22 St. Johnstone W 5-2 1795 1574 65.9% 22.2% 11.9% +6.8 6
2009-08-22 @ Celtic L 2-5 1574 1795 11.9% 22.2% 65.9% -6.8 1
2009-08-23 Rangers L 1-2 1625 1793 20.1% 27.1% 52.8% -5.5 0
2009-08-23 @ Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 1793 1625 52.8% 27.1% 20.1% +5.5 6
2009-08-29 Falkirk W 2-1 1640 1574 49.0% 28.0% 22.9% +6.2 7
2009-08-29 @ Dundee United L 1-2 1574 1640 22.9% 28.0% 49.0% -6.2 0
2009-08-29 Hamilton Academical W 4-1 1798 1536 69.7% 20.2% 10.1% +6.5 9
2009-08-29 @ Rangers L 1-4 1536 1798 10.1% 20.2% 69.7% -6.5 0
2009-08-29 Motherwell D 0-0 1654 1638 42.4% 29.0% 28.6% -0.8 4
2009-08-29 @ Aberdeen D 0-0 1638 1654 28.6% 29.0% 42.4% +0.8 5
2009-08-29 St. Mirren L 1-2 1608 1560 46.7% 28.4% 24.8% -10.7 3
2009-08-29 @ Kilmarnock W 2-1 1560 1608 24.8% 28.4% 46.7% +10.7 4
2009-08-30 Celtic L 0-1 1653 1801 21.8% 27.7% 50.5% -6.3 6
2009-08-30 @ Hibernian W 1-0 1801 1653 50.5% 27.7% 21.8% +6.3 9
2009-08-30 Heart of Midlothian D 2-2 1567 1620 32.8% 29.3% 37.9% +0.2 2
2009-08-30 @ St. Johnstone D 2-2 1620 1567 37.9% 29.3% 32.8% -0.2 1
2009-09-12 Dundee United D 1-1 1808 1646 60.0% 24.8% 15.2% -2.4 10
2009-09-12 @ Celtic D 1-1 1646 1808 15.2% 24.8% 60.0% +2.4 8
2009-09-12 Rangers D 0-0 1639 1805 20.2% 27.2% 52.6% +1.9 6
2009-09-12 @ Motherwell D 0-0 1805 1639 52.6% 27.2% 20.2% -1.9 10
2009-09-12 St. Johnstone D 1-1 1571 1567 40.9% 29.1% 30.0% -0.5 5
2009-09-12 @ St. Mirren D 1-1 1567 1571 30.0% 29.1% 40.9% +0.5 3
2009-09-13 Hibernian W 2-0 1530 1647 24.9% 28.4% 46.6% +21.3 3
2009-09-13 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-2 1647 1530 46.6% 28.4% 24.9% -21.3 6
2009-09-14 Aberdeen D 0-0 1567 1653 28.6% 29.0% 42.4% +0.8 1
2009-09-14 @ Falkirk D 0-0 1653 1567 42.4% 29.0% 28.6% -0.8 5
2009-09-15 Kilmarnock W 1-0 1620 1598 43.3% 28.9% 27.8% +7.7 4
2009-09-15 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-1 1598 1620 27.8% 28.9% 43.3% -7.7 3
2009-09-19 Falkirk D 0-0 1551 1568 37.9% 29.3% 32.8% -0.3 4
2009-09-19 @ Hamilton Academical D 0-0 1568 1551 32.8% 29.3% 37.9% +0.3 2
2009-09-19 Motherwell L 0-1 1648 1641 41.3% 29.1% 29.6% -10.3 8
2009-09-19 @ Dundee United W 1-0 1641 1648 29.6% 29.1% 41.3% +10.3 9
2009-09-19 Rangers D 0-0 1590 1803 16.5% 25.6% 57.9% +2.5 4
2009-09-19 @ Kilmarnock D 0-0 1803 1590 57.9% 25.6% 16.5% -2.5 11
2009-09-19 St. Johnstone W 3-0 1626 1568 48.0% 28.2% 23.8% +18.5 9
2009-09-19 @ Hibernian L 0-3 1568 1626 23.8% 28.2% 48.0% -18.5 3
2009-09-19 St. Mirren W 1-0 1652 1571 50.9% 27.6% 21.4% +6.2 8
2009-09-19 @ Aberdeen L 0-1 1571 1652 21.4% 27.6% 50.9% -6.2 5
2009-09-20 Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 1805 1627 61.7% 24.1% 14.2% +3.9 13
2009-09-20 @ Celtic L 1-2 1627 1805 14.2% 24.1% 61.7% -3.9 4
2009-09-26 Aberdeen D 0-0 1800 1658 57.9% 25.6% 16.6% -2.5 12
2009-09-26 @ Rangers D 0-0 1658 1800 16.6% 25.6% 57.9% +2.5 9
2009-09-26 Celtic L 0-2 1564 1809 14.4% 24.2% 61.3% -8.0 5
2009-09-26 @ St. Mirren W 2-0 1809 1564 61.3% 24.2% 14.4% +8.0 16
2009-09-26 Dundee United L 2-3 1549 1638 28.2% 28.9% 42.9% -6.9 3
2009-09-26 @ St. Johnstone W 3-2 1638 1549 42.9% 28.9% 28.2% +6.9 11
2009-09-26 Hamilton Academical W 2-1 1623 1551 49.9% 27.9% 22.3% +6.0 7
2009-09-26 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1551 1623 22.3% 27.9% 49.9% -6.0 4
2009-09-26 Hibernian L 1-3 1651 1644 41.3% 29.1% 29.6% -16.8 9
2009-09-26 @ Motherwell W 3-1 1644 1651 29.6% 29.1% 41.3% +16.8 12
2009-09-26 Kilmarnock D 0-0 1568 1592 36.9% 29.3% 33.8% -0.2 3
2009-09-26 @ Falkirk D 0-0 1592 1568 33.8% 29.3% 36.9% +0.2 5
2009-10-03 Aberdeen D 1-1 1593 1661 30.8% 29.2% 40.0% +0.4 6
2009-10-03 @ Kilmarnock D 1-1 1661 1593 40.0% 29.2% 30.8% -0.4 10
2009-10-03 Dundee United D 1-1 1661 1645 42.5% 29.0% 28.5% -0.7 13
2009-10-03 @ Hibernian D 1-1 1645 1661 28.5% 29.0% 42.5% +0.7 12
2009-10-03 Falkirk W 1-0 1634 1568 49.0% 28.0% 22.9% +6.6 12
2009-10-03 @ Motherwell L 0-1 1568 1634 22.9% 28.0% 49.0% -6.6 3
2009-10-03 Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 1556 1629 30.2% 29.1% 40.7% +9.6 8
2009-10-03 @ St. Mirren L 1-2 1629 1556 40.7% 29.1% 30.2% -9.6 7
2009-10-03 St. Johnstone L 0-2 1545 1542 40.7% 29.1% 30.2% -19.2 4
2009-10-03 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-0 1542 1545 30.2% 29.1% 40.7% +19.2 6
2009-10-04 Celtic W 2-1 1798 1817 37.6% 29.3% 33.1% +8.2 15
2009-10-04 @ Rangers L 1-2 1817 1798 33.1% 29.3% 37.6% -8.2 16
2009-10-17 Hamilton Academical D 1-1 1646 1526 55.5% 26.4% 18.2% -2.0 13
2009-10-17 @ Dundee United D 1-1 1526 1646 18.2% 26.4% 55.5% +2.0 5
2009-10-17 Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1660 1620 45.8% 28.6% 25.7% -1.0 11
2009-10-17 @ Aberdeen D 1-1 1620 1660 25.7% 28.6% 45.8% +1.0 8
2009-10-17 Kilmarnock W 1-0 1660 1593 49.2% 28.0% 22.8% +6.5 16
2009-10-17 @ Hibernian L 0-1 1593 1660 22.8% 28.0% 49.2% -6.5 6
2009-10-17 Motherwell D 0-0 1809 1641 60.6% 24.5% 14.8% -2.8 17
2009-10-17 @ Celtic D 0-0 1641 1809 14.8% 24.5% 60.6% +2.8 13
2009-10-17 Rangers L 1-2 1561 1806 14.4% 24.2% 61.3% -4.0 6
2009-10-17 @ St. Johnstone W 2-1 1806 1561 61.3% 24.2% 14.4% +4.0 18
2009-10-17 St. Mirren L 1-3 1562 1566 39.7% 29.2% 31.1% -16.3 3
2009-10-17 @ Falkirk W 3-1 1566 1562 31.1% 29.2% 39.7% +16.3 11
2009-10-24 Dundee United L 0-2 1659 1644 42.5% 29.0% 28.5% -19.8 11
2009-10-24 @ Aberdeen W 2-0 1644 1659 28.5% 29.0% 42.5% +19.8 16
2009-10-24 Falkirk D 0-0 1621 1545 50.2% 27.8% 22.0% -1.6 9
2009-10-24 @ Heart of Midlothian D 0-0 1545 1621 22.0% 27.8% 50.2% +1.6 4
2009-10-24 Hibernian D 1-1 1810 1667 58.0% 25.5% 16.4% -2.2 19
2009-10-24 @ Rangers D 1-1 1667 1810 16.4% 25.5% 58.0% +2.2 17
2009-10-24 Motherwell D 3-3 1582 1644 31.7% 29.2% 39.1% +0.2 12
2009-10-24 @ St. Mirren D 3-3 1644 1582 39.1% 29.2% 31.7% -0.2 14
2009-10-24 St. Johnstone W 2-1 1587 1557 44.3% 28.8% 26.9% +7.1 9
2009-10-24 @ Kilmarnock L 1-2 1557 1587 26.9% 28.8% 44.3% -7.1 6
2009-10-25 Celtic L 1-2 1528 1806 12.6% 22.8% 64.7% -3.4 5
2009-10-25 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-1 1806 1528 64.7% 22.8% 12.6% +3.4 20
2009-10-31 Aberdeen W 2-0 1669 1640 44.3% 28.8% 26.9% +14.1 20
2009-10-31 @ Hibernian L 0-2 1640 1669 26.9% 28.8% 44.3% -14.1 11
2009-10-31 Falkirk W 3-1 1550 1547 40.8% 29.1% 30.1% +13.3 9
2009-10-31 @ St. Johnstone L 1-3 1547 1550 30.1% 29.1% 40.8% -13.3 4
2009-10-31 Hamilton Academical L 0-2 1583 1524 48.1% 28.2% 23.7% -21.8 12
2009-10-31 @ St. Mirren W 2-0 1524 1583 23.7% 28.2% 48.1% +21.8 8
2009-10-31 Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 1644 1619 43.6% 28.9% 27.5% +7.6 17
2009-10-31 @ Motherwell L 0-1 1619 1644 27.5% 28.9% 43.6% -7.6 9
2009-10-31 Kilmarnock W 3-0 1809 1594 65.4% 22.4% 12.2% +9.6 23
2009-10-31 @ Celtic L 0-3 1594 1809 12.2% 22.4% 65.4% -9.6 9
2009-11-07 Dundee United L 0-2 1584 1663 29.4% 29.1% 41.6% -15.1 9
2009-11-07 @ Kilmarnock W 2-0 1663 1584 41.6% 29.1% 29.4% +15.1 19
2009-11-07 Hibernian D 0-0 1612 1683 30.4% 29.1% 40.5% +0.5 10
2009-11-07 @ Heart of Midlothian D 0-0 1683 1612 40.5% 29.1% 30.4% -0.6 21
2009-11-07 Motherwell D 2-2 1546 1651 26.3% 28.7% 45.0% +0.7 9
2009-11-07 @ Hamilton Academical D 2-2 1651 1546 45.0% 28.7% 26.3% -0.7 18
2009-11-07 St. Johnstone W 2-1 1625 1564 48.5% 28.1% 23.4% +6.3 14
2009-11-07 @ Aberdeen L 1-2 1564 1625 23.4% 28.1% 48.5% -6.3 9
2009-11-07 St. Mirren W 2-1 1808 1561 68.3% 21.0% 10.7% +2.8 22
2009-11-07 @ Rangers L 1-2 1561 1808 10.7% 21.0% 68.3% -2.9 12
2009-11-08 Celtic D 3-3 1534 1819 12.2% 22.4% 65.3% +1.8 5
2009-11-08 @ Falkirk D 3-3 1819 1534 65.3% 22.4% 12.2% -1.8 24
2009-11-21 Aberdeen D 1-1 1650 1632 42.9% 28.9% 28.2% -0.7 19
2009-11-21 @ Motherwell D 1-1 1632 1650 28.2% 28.9% 42.9% +0.7 15
2009-11-21 Hamilton Academical W 2-0 1535 1547 38.8% 29.2% 32.0% +16.1 8
2009-11-21 @ Falkirk L 0-2 1547 1535 32.0% 29.2% 38.8% -16.1 9
2009-11-21 Hibernian D 1-1 1558 1683 24.1% 28.3% 47.6% +1.2 13
2009-11-21 @ St. Mirren D 1-1 1683 1558 47.6% 28.3% 24.1% -1.2 22
2009-11-21 Kilmarnock W 3-0 1811 1569 67.9% 21.2% 10.9% +8.5 25
2009-11-21 @ Rangers L 0-3 1569 1811 10.9% 21.2% 67.9% -8.5 9
2009-11-21 St. Johnstone L 1-2 1612 1557 47.6% 28.3% 24.1% -10.8 10
2009-11-21 @ Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 1557 1612 24.1% 28.3% 47.6% +10.8 12
2009-11-22 Celtic W 2-1 1679 1817 22.7% 28.0% 49.3% +11.2 22
2009-11-22 @ Dundee United L 1-2 1817 1679 49.3% 28.0% 22.7% -11.1 24
2009-11-28 Dundee United D 2-2 1650 1690 34.6% 29.3% 36.0% +0.0 20
2009-11-28 @ Motherwell D 2-2 1690 1650 36.0% 29.3% 34.6% -0.0 23
2009-11-28 Falkirk W 2-0 1681 1552 56.5% 26.0% 17.4% +9.6 25
2009-11-28 @ Hibernian L 0-2 1552 1681 17.4% 26.0% 56.5% -9.6 8
2009-11-28 Hamilton Academical D 1-1 1568 1531 45.4% 28.6% 26.0% -1.0 13
2009-11-28 @ St. Johnstone D 1-1 1531 1568 26.0% 28.6% 45.4% +1.0 10
2009-11-28 Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1560 1601 34.5% 29.3% 36.2% -8.5 9
2009-11-28 @ Kilmarnock W 2-1 1601 1560 36.2% 29.3% 34.5% +8.5 13
2009-11-28 Rangers W 1-0 1633 1819 18.5% 26.5% 55.0% +12.9 18
2009-11-28 @ Aberdeen L 0-1 1819 1633 55.0% 26.5% 18.5% -12.9 25
2009-11-28 St. Mirren W 3-1 1806 1559 68.3% 21.0% 10.7% +4.9 27
2009-11-28 @ Celtic L 1-3 1559 1806 10.7% 21.0% 68.3% -4.9 13
2009-12-05 Aberdeen W 3-0 1811 1645 60.4% 24.6% 15.0% +12.0 30
2009-12-05 @ Celtic L 0-3 1645 1811 15.0% 24.6% 60.4% -12.0 18
2009-12-05 Kilmarnock L 0-1 1567 1552 42.4% 29.0% 28.6% -10.5 13
2009-12-05 @ St. Johnstone W 1-0 1552 1567 28.6% 29.0% 42.4% +10.5 12
2009-12-05 Motherwell W 2-0 1691 1650 45.9% 28.6% 25.6% +13.5 28
2009-12-05 @ Hibernian L 0-2 1650 1691 25.6% 28.6% 45.9% -13.5 20
2009-12-05 Rangers L 1-3 1542 1806 13.3% 23.4% 63.3% -6.3 8
2009-12-05 @ Falkirk W 3-1 1806 1542 63.3% 23.4% 13.3% +6.3 28
2009-12-05 St. Mirren W 3-2 1690 1554 57.2% 25.8% 17.0% +4.5 26
2009-12-05 @ Dundee United L 2-3 1554 1690 17.0% 25.8% 57.2% -4.5 13
2009-12-06 Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 1532 1610 29.5% 29.1% 41.4% +9.7 13
2009-12-06 @ Hamilton Academical L 1-2 1610 1532 41.4% 29.1% 29.5% -9.7 13
2009-12-12 Celtic L 2-3 1636 1823 18.4% 26.5% 55.0% -4.8 20
2009-12-12 @ Motherwell W 3-2 1823 1636 55.0% 26.5% 18.4% +4.8 33
2009-12-12 Dundee United D 0-0 1600 1694 27.6% 28.9% 43.5% +0.9 14
2009-12-12 @ Heart of Midlothian D 0-0 1694 1600 43.5% 28.9% 27.6% -0.9 27
2009-12-12 Falkirk D 1-1 1550 1536 42.2% 29.0% 28.7% -0.7 14
2009-12-12 @ St. Mirren D 1-1 1536 1550 28.7% 29.0% 42.2% +0.7 9
2009-12-12 Hamilton Academical L 1-2 1633 1541 52.2% 27.3% 20.5% -11.7 18
2009-12-12 @ Aberdeen W 2-1 1541 1633 20.5% 27.3% 52.2% +11.7 16
2009-12-12 Hibernian D 1-1 1562 1705 22.4% 27.9% 49.8% +1.4 13
2009-12-12 @ Kilmarnock D 1-1 1705 1562 49.8% 27.9% 22.4% -1.4 29
2009-12-12 St. Johnstone W 3-0 1813 1557 69.2% 20.5% 10.3% +7.9 31
2009-12-12 @ Rangers L 0-3 1557 1813 10.3% 20.5% 69.2% -7.9 13
2009-12-15 Rangers L 0-3 1693 1820 23.9% 28.2% 47.9% -18.6 27
2009-12-15 @ Dundee United W 3-0 1820 1693 47.9% 28.2% 23.9% +18.6 34
2009-12-19 Falkirk L 1-2 1564 1536 44.1% 28.8% 27.1% -10.2 13
2009-12-19 @ Kilmarnock W 2-1 1536 1564 27.1% 28.8% 44.1% +10.2 12
2009-12-19 Hibernian L 0-2 1622 1703 29.1% 29.0% 41.9% -15.0 18
2009-12-19 @ Aberdeen W 2-0 1703 1622 41.9% 29.0% 29.1% +15.0 32
2009-12-19 Motherwell W 6-1 1839 1631 64.6% 22.8% 12.6% +13.3 37
2009-12-19 @ Rangers L 1-6 1631 1839 12.6% 22.8% 64.6% -13.3 20
2009-12-19 St. Mirren W 1-0 1549 1549 40.3% 29.1% 30.6% +8.2 16
2009-12-19 @ St. Johnstone L 0-1 1549 1549 30.6% 29.1% 40.3% -8.2 14
2009-12-20 Celtic W 2-1 1601 1828 15.6% 25.0% 59.4% +13.0 17
2009-12-20 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1828 1601 59.4% 25.0% 15.6% -13.0 33
2009-12-26 Hamilton Academical W 2-0 1815 1553 69.7% 20.2% 10.1% +5.3 36
2009-12-26 @ Celtic L 0-2 1553 1815 10.1% 20.2% 69.7% -5.3 16
2009-12-26 Heart of Midlothian L 0-1 1546 1614 30.9% 29.2% 39.9% -8.3 12
2009-12-26 @ Falkirk W 1-0 1614 1546 39.9% 29.2% 30.9% +8.3 20
2009-12-26 Kilmarnock D 0-0 1675 1554 55.6% 26.4% 18.1% -2.2 28
2009-12-26 @ Dundee United D 0-0 1554 1675 18.1% 26.4% 55.6% +2.2 14
2009-12-26 St. Johnstone L 1-3 1618 1557 48.4% 28.1% 23.4% -19.0 20
2009-12-26 @ Motherwell W 3-1 1557 1618 23.4% 28.1% 48.4% +19.0 19
2009-12-27 Rangers L 1-4 1718 1852 23.2% 28.1% 48.8% -15.3 32
2009-12-27 @ Hibernian W 4-1 1852 1718 48.8% 28.1% 23.2% +15.3 40
2009-12-30 Dundee United W 7-1 1868 1672 63.4% 23.4% 13.2% +16.6 43
2009-12-30 @ Rangers L 1-7 1672 1868 13.2% 23.4% 63.4% -16.6 28
2009-12-30 Motherwell W 1-0 1622 1599 43.5% 28.9% 27.6% +7.6 23
2009-12-30 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-1 1599 1622 27.6% 28.9% 43.5% -7.6 20
2010-01-02 Aberdeen L 0-1 1656 1607 46.9% 28.4% 24.7% -11.3 28
2010-01-02 @ Dundee United W 1-0 1607 1656 24.7% 28.4% 46.9% +11.3 21
2010-01-02 Kilmarnock W 1-0 1541 1556 38.2% 29.3% 32.5% +8.6 17
2010-01-02 @ St. Mirren L 0-1 1556 1541 32.5% 29.3% 38.2% -8.6 14
2010-01-03 Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1703 1630 49.9% 27.8% 22.3% -1.4 33
2010-01-03 @ Hibernian D 1-1 1630 1703 22.3% 27.8% 49.9% +1.4 24
2010-01-03 Rangers D 1-1 1820 1884 31.4% 29.2% 39.4% +0.4 37
2010-01-03 @ Celtic D 1-1 1884 1820 39.4% 29.2% 31.4% -0.4 44
2010-01-12 Aberdeen W 1-0 1549 1618 30.7% 29.2% 40.1% +10.0 20
2010-01-12 @ St. Mirren L 0-1 1618 1549 40.1% 29.2% 30.7% -10.0 21
2010-01-13 Dundee United L 0-1 1548 1644 27.3% 28.8% 43.9% -7.6 16
2010-01-13 @ Hamilton Academical W 1-0 1644 1548 43.9% 28.8% 27.3% +7.5 31
2010-01-16 Falkirk D 1-1 1821 1538 71.5% 19.3% 9.2% -3.4 38
2010-01-16 @ Celtic D 1-1 1538 1821 9.2% 19.3% 71.5% +3.4 13
2010-01-16 Hibernian W 1-0 1652 1701 33.3% 29.3% 37.4% +9.5 34
2010-01-16 @ Dundee United L 0-1 1701 1652 37.4% 29.3% 33.3% -9.5 33
2010-01-16 Motherwell L 0-3 1547 1591 34.1% 29.3% 36.6% -24.5 14
2010-01-16 @ Kilmarnock W 3-0 1591 1547 36.6% 29.3% 34.1% +24.5 23
2010-01-16 Rangers L 0-1 1540 1884 9.6% 19.7% 70.7% -2.7 16
2010-01-16 @ Hamilton Academical W 1-0 1884 1540 70.7% 19.7% 9.6% +2.7 47
2010-01-16 St. Mirren W 1-0 1631 1559 49.8% 27.9% 22.4% +6.4 27
2010-01-16 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-1 1559 1631 22.4% 27.9% 49.8% -6.4 20
2010-01-23 Hamilton Academical W 5-1 1692 1537 59.2% 25.1% 15.7% +13.7 36
2010-01-23 @ Hibernian L 1-5 1537 1692 15.7% 25.1% 59.2% -13.7 16
2010-01-23 Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1887 1638 68.5% 20.9% 10.6% -3.2 48
2010-01-23 @ Rangers D 1-1 1638 1887 10.6% 20.9% 68.5% +3.2 28
2010-01-23 Kilmarnock W 1-0 1608 1523 51.4% 27.5% 21.1% +6.1 24
2010-01-23 @ Aberdeen L 0-1 1523 1608 21.1% 27.5% 51.4% -6.1 14
2010-01-23 St. Mirren W 2-0 1616 1553 48.6% 28.1% 23.3% +12.5 26
2010-01-23 @ Motherwell L 0-2 1553 1616 23.3% 28.1% 48.6% -12.5 20
2010-01-24 Celtic L 1-4 1576 1817 14.6% 24.4% 61.0% -9.9 19
2010-01-24 @ St. Johnstone W 4-1 1817 1576 61.0% 24.4% 14.6% +9.9 41
2010-01-24 Dundee United L 1-4 1542 1662 24.6% 28.4% 47.0% -16.1 13
2010-01-24 @ Falkirk W 4-1 1662 1542 47.0% 28.4% 24.6% +16.1 37
2010-01-26 Kilmarnock D 0-0 1524 1517 41.3% 29.1% 29.6% -0.6 17
2010-01-26 @ Hamilton Academical D 0-0 1517 1524 29.6% 29.1% 41.3% +0.6 15
2010-01-27 Aberdeen L 0-3 1641 1614 44.0% 28.8% 27.2% -29.5 28
2010-01-27 @ Heart of Midlothian W 3-0 1614 1641 27.2% 28.8% 44.0% +29.5 27
2010-01-27 Hibernian L 1-2 1827 1706 55.6% 26.3% 18.1% -12.3 41
2010-01-27 @ Celtic W 2-1 1706 1827 18.1% 26.3% 55.6% +12.3 39
2010-01-27 Motherwell D 0-0 1525 1628 26.5% 28.7% 44.7% +1.0 14
2010-01-27 @ Falkirk D 0-0 1628 1525 44.7% 28.7% 26.5% -1.0 27
2010-01-27 Rangers L 0-2 1540 1883 9.6% 19.8% 70.6% -5.0 20
2010-01-27 @ St. Mirren W 2-0 1883 1540 70.6% 19.8% 9.6% +5.0 51
2010-01-27 St. Johnstone D 3-3 1678 1566 54.5% 26.7% 18.8% -1.2 38
2010-01-27 @ Dundee United D 3-3 1566 1678 18.8% 26.7% 54.5% +1.2 20
2010-01-30 Celtic L 0-1 1523 1815 11.9% 22.2% 66.0% -3.4 17
2010-01-30 @ Hamilton Academical W 1-0 1815 1523 66.0% 22.2% 11.9% +3.4 44
2010-01-30 Dundee United D 4-4 1517 1676 20.8% 27.4% 51.8% +0.9 16
2010-01-30 @ Kilmarnock D 4-4 1676 1517 51.8% 27.4% 20.8% -0.9 39
2010-01-30 Falkirk W 3-0 1888 1526 77.8% 15.6% 6.6% +4.6 54
2010-01-30 @ Rangers L 0-3 1526 1888 6.6% 15.6% 77.8% -4.6 14
2010-01-30 Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 1567 1611 34.1% 29.3% 36.6% +9.4 23
2010-01-30 @ St. Johnstone L 0-1 1611 1567 36.6% 29.3% 34.1% -9.4 28
2010-01-30 Motherwell L 0-3 1644 1627 42.5% 29.0% 28.5% -28.8 27
2010-01-30 @ Aberdeen W 3-0 1627 1644 28.5% 29.0% 42.5% +28.8 30
2010-01-30 St. Mirren W 2-1 1718 1535 62.1% 23.9% 14.0% +3.8 42
2010-01-30 @ Hibernian L 1-2 1535 1718 14.0% 23.9% 62.1% -3.8 20
2010-02-02 Celtic W 1-0 1518 1818 11.5% 21.8% 66.7% +15.1 19
2010-02-02 @ Kilmarnock L 0-1 1818 1518 66.7% 21.8% 11.5% -15.0 44
2010-02-02 Falkirk L 0-1 1615 1522 52.3% 27.3% 20.4% -12.4 27
2010-02-02 @ Aberdeen W 1-0 1522 1615 20.4% 27.3% 52.3% +12.4 17
2010-02-06 Hamilton Academical W 1-0 1656 1520 57.3% 25.8% 16.9% +5.0 33
2010-02-06 @ Motherwell L 0-1 1520 1656 16.9% 25.8% 57.3% -5.0 17
2010-02-10 Aberdeen D 2-2 1722 1602 55.4% 26.4% 18.2% -1.5 43
2010-02-10 @ Hibernian D 2-2 1602 1722 18.2% 26.4% 55.4% +1.5 28
2010-02-10 Hamilton Academical L 0-2 1676 1515 59.9% 24.8% 15.3% -26.1 39
2010-02-10 @ Dundee United W 2-0 1515 1676 15.3% 24.8% 59.9% +26.1 20
2010-02-10 Heart of Midlothian W 2-0 1803 1602 64.0% 23.1% 12.9% +7.1 47
2010-02-10 @ Celtic L 0-2 1602 1803 12.9% 23.1% 64.0% -7.1 28
2010-02-10 Kilmarnock L 0-1 1534 1533 40.5% 29.1% 30.4% -10.1 17
2010-02-10 @ Falkirk W 1-0 1533 1534 30.4% 29.1% 40.5% +10.1 22
2010-02-10 Rangers D 1-1 1661 1893 15.2% 24.8% 60.0% +2.4 34
2010-02-10 @ Motherwell D 1-1 1893 1661 60.0% 24.8% 15.2% -2.4 55
2010-02-10 St. Johnstone D 1-1 1532 1577 33.9% 29.3% 36.8% +0.1 21
2010-02-10 @ St. Mirren D 1-1 1577 1532 36.8% 29.3% 33.9% -0.1 24
2010-02-13 Celtic D 4-4 1604 1810 17.0% 25.8% 57.2% +1.2 29
2010-02-13 @ Aberdeen D 4-4 1810 1604 57.2% 25.8% 17.0% -1.2 48
2010-02-13 Dundee United L 1-2 1532 1649 24.9% 28.4% 46.7% -6.6 21
2010-02-13 @ St. Mirren W 2-1 1649 1532 46.7% 28.4% 24.9% +6.6 42
2010-02-13 Falkirk W 3-2 1595 1524 49.6% 27.9% 22.5% +5.8 31
2010-02-13 @ Heart of Midlothian L 2-3 1524 1595 22.5% 27.9% 49.6% -5.8 17
2010-02-13 Motherwell D 0-0 1541 1664 24.3% 28.3% 47.3% +1.3 21
2010-02-13 @ Hamilton Academical D 0-0 1664 1541 47.3% 28.3% 24.3% -1.3 35
2010-02-13 St. Johnstone W 3-2 1543 1577 35.6% 29.3% 35.0% +8.1 25
2010-02-13 @ Kilmarnock L 2-3 1577 1543 35.0% 29.3% 35.6% -8.2 24
2010-02-14 Hibernian W 3-0 1891 1720 60.9% 24.4% 14.7% +11.8 58
2010-02-14 @ Rangers L 0-3 1720 1891 14.7% 24.4% 60.9% -11.8 43
2010-02-17 Hibernian W 5-1 1568 1709 22.6% 27.9% 49.5% +35.4 27
2010-02-17 @ St. Johnstone L 1-5 1709 1568 49.5% 27.9% 22.6% -35.3 43
2010-02-20 Aberdeen W 3-1 1518 1605 28.5% 29.0% 42.6% +17.2 20
2010-02-20 @ Falkirk L 1-3 1605 1518 42.6% 29.0% 28.5% -17.2 29
2010-02-20 Dundee United W 1-0 1809 1656 59.1% 25.1% 15.8% +4.6 51
2010-02-20 @ Celtic L 0-1 1656 1809 15.8% 25.1% 59.1% -4.6 42
2010-02-20 Hibernian W 1-0 1662 1673 38.8% 29.2% 32.0% +8.5 38
2010-02-20 @ Motherwell L 0-1 1673 1662 32.0% 29.2% 38.8% -8.5 43
2010-02-20 St. Mirren D 1-1 1552 1525 43.9% 28.8% 27.3% -0.8 26
2010-02-20 @ Kilmarnock D 1-1 1525 1552 27.3% 28.8% 43.9% +0.8 22
2010-02-21 Hamilton Academical W 2-0 1601 1542 48.1% 28.2% 23.7% +12.7 34
2010-02-21 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-2 1542 1601 23.7% 28.2% 48.1% -12.7 21
2010-02-27 Falkirk W 3-0 1651 1536 55.0% 26.5% 18.5% +14.8 45
2010-02-27 @ Dundee United L 0-3 1536 1651 18.5% 26.5% 55.0% -14.8 20
2010-02-27 Hamilton Academical D 0-0 1526 1529 39.9% 29.2% 31.0% -0.5 23
2010-02-27 @ St. Mirren D 0-0 1529 1526 31.0% 29.2% 39.9% +0.5 22
2010-02-27 Heart of Midlothian L 0-1 1588 1614 36.7% 29.3% 34.0% -9.4 29
2010-02-27 @ Aberdeen W 1-0 1614 1588 34.0% 29.3% 36.7% +9.4 37
2010-02-27 Kilmarnock W 1-0 1671 1551 55.5% 26.4% 18.2% +5.3 41
2010-02-27 @ Motherwell L 0-1 1551 1671 18.2% 26.4% 55.5% -5.3 26
2010-02-27 St. Johnstone D 1-1 1665 1604 48.4% 28.1% 23.5% -1.3 44
2010-02-27 @ Hibernian D 1-1 1604 1665 23.5% 28.1% 48.4% +1.3 28
2010-02-28 Celtic W 1-0 1902 1814 51.8% 27.4% 20.8% +6.0 61
2010-02-28 @ Rangers L 0-1 1814 1902 20.8% 27.4% 51.8% -6.0 51
2010-03-06 Aberdeen D 1-1 1530 1579 33.4% 29.3% 37.3% +0.2 23
2010-03-06 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-1 1579 1530 37.3% 29.3% 33.4% -0.2 30
2010-03-06 Kilmarnock W 1-0 1663 1545 55.2% 26.5% 18.3% +5.4 47
2010-03-06 @ Hibernian L 0-1 1545 1663 18.3% 26.5% 55.2% -5.4 26
2010-03-06 Motherwell L 1-2 1605 1676 30.4% 29.1% 40.4% -7.8 28
2010-03-06 @ St. Johnstone W 2-1 1676 1605 40.4% 29.1% 30.4% +7.8 44
2010-03-06 St. Mirren W 3-1 1908 1525 79.3% 14.6% 6.0% +2.5 64
2010-03-06 @ Rangers L 1-3 1525 1908 6.0% 14.6% 79.3% -2.5 23
2010-03-07 Celtic L 0-2 1521 1808 12.1% 22.4% 65.5% -6.6 20
2010-03-07 @ Falkirk W 2-0 1808 1521 65.5% 22.4% 12.1% +6.6 54
2010-03-07 Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 1666 1623 46.2% 28.5% 25.3% +7.1 48
2010-03-07 @ Dundee United L 0-1 1623 1666 25.3% 28.5% 46.2% -7.1 37
2010-03-09 Motherwell D 0-0 1523 1684 20.6% 27.3% 52.0% +1.8 24
2010-03-09 @ St. Mirren D 0-0 1684 1523 52.0% 27.3% 20.6% -1.8 45
2010-03-09 Rangers L 0-2 1540 1911 8.6% 18.4% 73.0% -4.4 26
2010-03-09 @ Kilmarnock W 2-0 1911 1540 73.0% 18.4% 8.6% +4.4 67
2010-03-13 Heart of Midlothian W 3-1 1682 1616 49.1% 28.0% 22.9% +10.7 48
2010-03-13 @ Motherwell L 1-3 1616 1682 22.9% 28.0% 49.1% -10.7 37
2010-03-13 St. Johnstone L 1-2 1514 1597 28.9% 29.0% 42.1% -7.5 20
2010-03-13 @ Falkirk W 2-1 1597 1514 42.1% 29.0% 28.9% +7.5 31
2010-03-13 St. Mirren W 1-0 1530 1525 41.0% 29.1% 29.9% +8.1 26
2010-03-13 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-1 1525 1530 29.9% 29.1% 41.0% -8.1 24
2010-03-16 Aberdeen W 1-0 1605 1578 43.9% 28.8% 27.3% +7.6 34
2010-03-16 @ St. Johnstone L 0-1 1578 1605 27.3% 28.8% 43.9% -7.6 30
2010-03-20 Dundee United D 2-2 1571 1673 26.6% 28.7% 44.7% +0.7 31
2010-03-20 @ Aberdeen D 2-2 1673 1571 44.7% 28.7% 26.6% -0.7 49
2010-03-20 Falkirk D 2-2 1538 1507 44.6% 28.7% 26.7% -0.7 27
2010-03-20 @ Hamilton Academical D 2-2 1507 1538 26.7% 28.7% 44.6% +0.7 21
2010-03-20 Hibernian W 2-1 1605 1669 31.4% 29.2% 39.4% +9.4 40
2010-03-20 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1669 1605 39.4% 29.2% 31.4% -9.3 47
2010-03-20 St. Johnstone W 3-0 1814 1612 64.1% 23.1% 12.9% +10.2 57
2010-03-20 @ Celtic L 0-3 1612 1814 12.9% 23.1% 64.1% -10.2 34
2010-03-23 Falkirk D 1-1 1602 1507 52.5% 27.2% 20.3% -1.7 35
2010-03-23 @ St. Johnstone D 1-1 1507 1602 20.3% 27.2% 52.5% +1.7 22
2010-03-24 Celtic W 4-0 1517 1824 11.1% 21.4% 67.5% +54.3 27
2010-03-24 @ St. Mirren L 0-4 1824 1517 67.5% 21.4% 11.1% -54.3 57
2010-03-24 Hamilton Academical L 1-2 1536 1537 40.1% 29.2% 30.8% -9.5 26
2010-03-24 @ Kilmarnock W 2-1 1537 1536 30.8% 29.2% 40.1% +9.5 30
2010-03-27 Hibernian L 1-3 1509 1659 21.6% 27.7% 50.8% -10.2 22
2010-03-27 @ Falkirk W 3-1 1659 1509 50.8% 27.7% 21.6% +10.2 50
2010-03-27 Kilmarnock W 3-1 1770 1526 68.1% 21.1% 10.8% +5.0 60
2010-03-27 @ Celtic L 1-3 1526 1770 10.8% 21.1% 68.1% -5.0 26
2010-03-27 Motherwell W 3-0 1673 1693 37.5% 29.3% 33.2% +24.0 52
2010-03-27 @ Dundee United L 0-3 1693 1673 33.2% 29.3% 37.5% -24.0 48
2010-03-27 Rangers L 1-4 1614 1915 11.5% 21.7% 66.8% -7.5 40
2010-03-27 @ Heart of Midlothian W 4-1 1915 1614 66.8% 21.7% 11.5% +7.5 70
2010-03-27 St. Johnstone W 1-0 1547 1600 32.8% 29.3% 38.0% +9.6 33
2010-03-27 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-1 1600 1547 38.0% 29.3% 32.8% -9.6 35
2010-03-27 St. Mirren W 2-1 1571 1571 40.4% 29.1% 30.5% +7.8 34
2010-03-27 @ Aberdeen L 1-2 1571 1571 30.5% 29.1% 40.4% -7.8 27
2010-03-30 Rangers W 4-1 1591 1923 10.1% 20.3% 69.7% +35.9 38
2010-03-30 @ St. Johnstone L 1-4 1923 1591 69.7% 20.3% 10.1% -35.8 70
2010-03-31 Dundee United L 2-4 1670 1697 36.5% 29.3% 34.2% -13.7 50
2010-03-31 @ Hibernian W 4-2 1697 1670 34.2% 29.3% 36.5% +13.7 55
2010-04-03 Falkirk L 0-1 1669 1499 60.9% 24.4% 14.7% -14.0 48
2010-04-03 @ Motherwell W 1-0 1499 1669 14.7% 24.4% 60.9% +14.0 25
2010-04-03 Hamilton Academical W 1-0 1887 1557 75.4% 17.0% 7.6% +2.0 73
2010-04-03 @ Rangers L 0-1 1557 1887 7.6% 17.0% 75.4% -2.0 33
2010-04-03 Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1563 1607 34.1% 29.3% 36.6% +0.1 28
2010-04-03 @ St. Mirren D 1-1 1607 1563 36.6% 29.3% 34.1% -0.1 41
2010-04-04 Aberdeen W 2-0 1521 1579 32.1% 29.2% 38.6% +18.4 29
2010-04-04 @ Kilmarnock L 0-2 1579 1521 38.6% 29.2% 32.1% -18.4 34
2010-04-04 Celtic L 0-1 1656 1775 24.7% 28.4% 46.9% -7.0 50
2010-04-04 @ Hibernian W 1-0 1775 1656 46.9% 28.4% 24.7% +7.0 63
2010-04-05 Dundee United L 0-1 1627 1710 28.8% 29.0% 42.2% -7.9 38
2010-04-05 @ St. Johnstone W 1-0 1710 1627 42.2% 29.0% 28.8% +7.9 58
2010-04-07 Aberdeen W 3-1 1889 1561 75.2% 17.1% 7.6% +3.3 76
2010-04-07 @ Rangers L 1-3 1561 1889 7.6% 17.1% 75.2% -3.3 34
2010-04-10 Hibernian W 4-1 1555 1649 27.6% 28.9% 43.6% +24.7 36
2010-04-10 @ Hamilton Academical L 1-4 1649 1555 43.6% 28.9% 27.6% -24.7 50
2010-04-10 Kilmarnock W 1-0 1607 1540 49.2% 28.0% 22.8% +6.5 44
2010-04-10 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-1 1540 1607 22.8% 28.0% 49.2% -6.5 29
2010-04-10 St. Mirren W 2-1 1513 1563 33.2% 29.3% 37.5% +9.0 28
2010-04-10 @ Falkirk L 1-2 1563 1513 37.5% 29.3% 33.2% -9.0 28
2010-04-11 St. Johnstone L 1-3 1558 1619 31.7% 29.2% 39.0% -13.9 34
2010-04-11 @ Aberdeen W 3-1 1619 1558 39.0% 29.2% 31.7% +13.8 41
2010-04-13 Motherwell W 2-1 1782 1655 56.3% 26.1% 17.6% +4.9 66
2010-04-13 @ Celtic L 1-2 1655 1782 17.6% 26.1% 56.3% -4.9 48
2010-04-14 Rangers D 0-0 1718 1892 19.5% 26.9% 53.5% +2.0 59
2010-04-14 @ Dundee United D 0-0 1892 1718 53.5% 26.9% 19.5% -2.0 77

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2010-04-17 Falkirk W 1-0 1544 1522 43.3% 28.9% 27.8% +7.7 3
2010-04-17 @ Aberdeen L 0-1 1522 1544 27.8% 28.9% 43.3% -7.7 0
2010-04-17 Hibernian W 3-2 1787 1624 60.1% 24.7% 15.2% +4.0 3
2010-04-17 @ Celtic L 2-3 1624 1787 15.2% 24.7% 60.1% -4.0 0
2010-04-17 Kilmarnock W 3-0 1579 1533 46.5% 28.5% 25.0% +19.3 3
2010-04-17 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-3 1533 1579 25.0% 28.5% 46.5% -19.3 0
2010-04-17 St. Mirren D 2-2 1633 1554 50.5% 27.7% 21.8% -1.1 1
2010-04-17 @ St. Johnstone D 2-2 1554 1633 21.8% 27.7% 50.5% +1.1 1
2010-04-18 Dundee United L 2-3 1650 1720 30.5% 29.1% 40.3% -7.4 0
2010-04-18 @ Motherwell W 3-2 1720 1650 40.3% 29.1% 30.5% +7.4 3
2010-04-18 Heart of Midlothian W 2-0 1890 1613 71.0% 19.5% 9.5% +4.9 3
2010-04-18 @ Rangers L 0-2 1613 1890 9.5% 19.5% 71.0% -4.9 0
2010-04-24 Aberdeen D 1-1 1631 1551 50.8% 27.7% 21.6% -1.5 2
2010-04-24 @ St. Johnstone D 1-1 1551 1631 21.6% 27.7% 50.8% +1.5 4
2010-04-24 Hamilton Academical L 0-1 1514 1599 28.7% 29.0% 42.3% -7.9 0
2010-04-24 @ Falkirk W 1-0 1599 1514 42.3% 29.0% 28.7% +7.9 6
2010-04-24 Kilmarnock W 1-0 1555 1514 45.9% 28.5% 25.5% +7.2 4
2010-04-24 @ St. Mirren L 0-1 1514 1555 25.5% 28.5% 45.9% -7.2 0
2010-04-24 Motherwell L 0-2 1608 1643 35.5% 29.3% 35.2% -17.3 0
2010-04-24 @ Heart of Midlothian W 2-0 1643 1608 35.2% 29.3% 35.5% +17.3 3
2010-04-25 Celtic L 0-2 1728 1791 31.5% 29.2% 39.3% -15.9 3
2010-04-25 @ Dundee United W 2-0 1791 1728 39.3% 29.2% 31.5% +15.9 6
2010-04-25 Rangers L 0-1 1620 1895 12.7% 22.9% 64.3% -3.7 0
2010-04-25 @ Hibernian W 1-0 1895 1620 64.3% 22.9% 12.7% +3.7 6
2010-05-01 Hamilton Academical L 1-3 1553 1607 32.8% 29.3% 38.0% -14.2 4
2010-05-01 @ Aberdeen W 3-1 1607 1553 38.0% 29.3% 32.8% +14.2 9
2010-05-01 Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1616 1591 43.8% 28.8% 27.4% -10.1 0
2010-05-01 @ Hibernian W 2-1 1591 1616 27.4% 28.8% 43.8% +10.1 3
2010-05-01 Motherwell W 4-0 1807 1660 58.4% 25.4% 16.2% +17.0 9
2010-05-01 @ Celtic L 0-4 1660 1807 16.2% 25.4% 58.4% -17.0 3
2010-05-01 Rangers L 1-2 1712 1899 18.4% 26.5% 55.1% -5.1 3
2010-05-01 @ Dundee United W 2-1 1899 1712 55.1% 26.5% 18.4% +5.1 9
2010-05-01 St. Johnstone L 1-2 1507 1630 24.3% 28.3% 47.4% -6.5 0
2010-05-01 @ Kilmarnock W 2-1 1630 1507 47.4% 28.3% 24.3% +6.5 5
2010-05-01 St. Mirren D 1-1 1506 1563 32.4% 29.2% 38.4% +0.3 1
2010-05-01 @ Falkirk D 1-1 1563 1506 38.4% 29.2% 32.4% -0.3 5
2010-05-04 Rangers W 2-1 1824 1904 29.3% 29.0% 41.6% +9.8 12
2010-05-04 @ Celtic L 1-2 1904 1824 41.6% 29.0% 29.3% -9.8 9
2010-05-05 Dundee United D 0-0 1601 1707 26.2% 28.7% 45.1% +1.1 4
2010-05-05 @ Heart of Midlothian D 0-0 1707 1601 45.1% 28.7% 26.2% -1.1 4
2010-05-05 Hibernian D 6-6 1643 1606 45.2% 28.6% 26.1% -0.4 4
2010-05-05 @ Motherwell D 6-6 1606 1643 26.1% 28.6% 45.2% +0.4 1
2010-05-05 Kilmarnock L 1-2 1539 1500 45.5% 28.6% 25.9% -10.5 4
2010-05-05 @ Aberdeen W 2-1 1500 1539 25.9% 28.6% 45.5% +10.5 3
2010-05-05 St. Johnstone D 0-0 1507 1636 23.6% 28.2% 48.2% +1.4 2
2010-05-05 @ Falkirk D 0-0 1636 1507 48.2% 28.2% 23.6% -1.4 6
2010-05-05 St. Mirren D 0-0 1621 1562 48.1% 28.2% 23.7% -1.4 10
2010-05-05 @ Hamilton Academical D 0-0 1562 1621 23.7% 28.2% 48.1% +1.4 6
2010-05-08 Aberdeen L 0-1 1564 1528 45.1% 28.7% 26.2% -11.0 6
2010-05-08 @ St. Mirren W 1-0 1528 1564 26.2% 28.7% 45.1% +11.0 7
2010-05-08 Falkirk D 0-0 1511 1508 40.7% 29.1% 30.2% -0.6 4
2010-05-08 @ Kilmarnock D 0-0 1508 1511 30.2% 29.1% 40.7% +0.6 3
2010-05-08 Hamilton Academical L 2-3 1635 1619 42.5% 29.0% 28.5% -9.4 6
2010-05-08 @ St. Johnstone W 3-2 1619 1635 28.5% 29.0% 42.5% +9.4 13
2010-05-09 Celtic L 1-2 1602 1834 15.3% 24.8% 59.9% -4.2 4
2010-05-09 @ Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 1834 1602 59.9% 24.8% 15.3% +4.2 15
2010-05-09 Hibernian L 0-2 1706 1607 53.0% 27.1% 19.9% -23.6 4
2010-05-09 @ Dundee United W 2-0 1607 1706 19.9% 27.1% 53.0% +23.7 4
2010-05-09 Motherwell D 3-3 1894 1642 68.8% 20.7% 10.5% -2.0 10
2010-05-09 @ Rangers D 3-3 1642 1894 10.5% 20.7% 68.8% +2.0 5

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2010-03-30 10.07% @ St. Johnstone 1591 4 Rangers 1923 1
2 2010-03-24 11.13% @ St. Mirren 1517 4 Celtic 1824 0
3 2010-02-02 11.49% @ Kilmarnock 1518 1 Celtic 1818 0
4 2010-04-03 14.71% Falkirk 1499 1 @ Motherwell 1669 0
5 2010-02-10 15.27% Hamilton Academical 1515 2 @ Dundee United 1676 0
6 2009-12-20 15.56% @ Heart of Midlothian 1601 2 Celtic 1828 1
7 2010-01-27 18.06% Hibernian 1706 2 @ Celtic 1827 1
8 2009-11-28 18.46% @ Aberdeen 1633 1 Rangers 1819 0
9 2010-05-09 19.90% Hibernian 1607 2 @ Dundee United 1706 0
10 2010-02-02 20.41% Falkirk 1522 1 @ Aberdeen 1615 0
11 2009-12-12 20.49% Hamilton Academical 1541 2 @ Aberdeen 1633 1
12 2010-02-17 22.58% @ St. Johnstone 1568 5 Hibernian 1709 1
13 2009-11-22 22.72% @ Dundee United 1679 2 Celtic 1817 1
14 2009-12-26 23.44% St. Johnstone 1557 3 @ Motherwell 1618 1
15 2009-10-31 23.72% Hamilton Academical 1524 2 @ St. Mirren 1583 0
16 2009-11-21 24.08% St. Johnstone 1557 2 @ Heart of Midlothian 1612 1
17 2010-01-02 24.71% Aberdeen 1607 1 @ Dundee United 1656 0
18 2009-08-29 24.84% St. Mirren 1560 2 @ Kilmarnock 1608 1
19 2009-09-13 24.95% @ Hamilton Academical 1530 2 Hibernian 1647 0
20 2010-05-05 25.86% Kilmarnock 1500 2 @ Aberdeen 1539 1
21 2010-05-08 26.21% Aberdeen 1528 1 @ St. Mirren 1564 0
22 2009-12-19 27.12% Falkirk 1536 2 @ Kilmarnock 1564 1
23 2010-01-27 27.21% Aberdeen 1614 3 @ Heart of Midlothian 1641 0
24 2010-05-01 27.38% Heart of Midlothian 1591 2 @ Hibernian 1616 1
25 2010-04-10 27.55% @ Hamilton Academical 1555 4 Hibernian 1649 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2010-03-24 54.29 @ St. Mirren 4 1517 11.13% Celtic 0 1824 67.46% 21.42%
2 2010-03-30 35.86 @ St. Johnstone 4 1591 10.07% Rangers 1 1923 69.67% 20.26%
3 2010-02-17 35.35 @ St. Johnstone 5 1568 22.58% Hibernian 1 1709 49.50% 27.92%
4 2010-01-27 29.55 Aberdeen 3 1614 27.21% @ Heart of Midlothian 0 1641 43.98% 28.82%
5 2010-01-30 28.80 Motherwell 3 1627 28.48% @ Aberdeen 0 1644 42.55% 28.97%
6 2010-02-10 26.13 Hamilton Academical 2 1515 15.27% @ Dundee United 0 1676 59.91% 24.82%
7 2010-04-10 24.74 @ Hamilton Academical 4 1555 27.55% Hibernian 1 1649 43.59% 28.86%
8 2010-01-16 24.45 Motherwell 3 1591 36.64% @ Kilmarnock 0 1547 34.06% 29.30%
9 2010-03-27 24.02 @ Dundee United 3 1673 37.51% Motherwell 0 1693 33.21% 29.28%
10 2010-05-09 23.65 Hibernian 2 1607 19.90% @ Dundee United 0 1706 53.02% 27.09%
11 2009-08-22 22.41 Aberdeen 3 1631 40.64% @ Hamilton Academical 0 1559 30.23% 29.13%
12 2009-10-31 21.83 Hamilton Academical 2 1524 23.72% @ St. Mirren 0 1583 48.08% 28.20%
13 2009-09-13 21.30 @ Hamilton Academical 2 1530 24.95% Hibernian 0 1647 46.60% 28.45%
14 2009-08-15 21.09 @ Kilmarnock 3 1601 43.17% Hamilton Academical 0 1580 27.92% 28.91%
15 2009-10-24 19.80 Dundee United 2 1644 28.55% @ Aberdeen 0 1659 42.48% 28.98%
16 2010-04-17 19.33 @ Hamilton Academical 3 1579 46.53% Kilmarnock 0 1533 25.01% 28.46%
17 2009-10-03 19.16 St. Johnstone 2 1542 30.19% @ Hamilton Academical 0 1545 40.68% 29.13%
18 2009-12-26 19.02 St. Johnstone 3 1557 23.44% @ Motherwell 1 1618 48.42% 28.13%
19 2009-12-15 18.61 Rangers 3 1820 47.88% @ Dundee United 0 1693 23.88% 28.23%
20 2009-09-19 18.53 @ Hibernian 3 1626 48.03% St. Johnstone 0 1568 23.76% 28.21%
21 2010-04-04 18.42 @ Kilmarnock 2 1521 32.15% Aberdeen 0 1579 38.60% 29.24%
22 2010-04-24 17.34 Motherwell 2 1643 35.19% @ Heart of Midlothian 0 1608 35.50% 29.31%
23 2010-02-20 17.18 @ Falkirk 3 1518 28.46% Aberdeen 1 1605 42.57% 28.97%
24 2010-05-01 17.03 @ Celtic 4 1807 58.43% Motherwell 0 1660 16.20% 25.37%
25 2009-09-26 16.78 Hibernian 3 1644 29.63% @ Motherwell 1 1651 41.29% 29.08%