2004-05 Scottish Premier League Season

228 games

Final

Champion

Rangers

93 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Livingston

26.40 points above expected

35 points · 61.40 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Celtic

82.36 points below expected

92 points · 174.36 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Celtic 33 27 2 4 83 77 28 +49 74.57 +8.43
2 Rangers 33 25 6 2 81 67 17 +50 71.12 +9.88
3 Hibernian 33 17 5 11 56 56 49 +7 45.39 +10.61
4 Aberdeen 33 15 7 11 52 38 33 +5 42.54 +9.46
5 Heart of Midlothian 33 13 9 11 48 39 33 +6 54.20 -6.20
6 Motherwell 33 12 7 14 43 41 41 0 43.14 -0.14
7 Inverness CT 33 11 9 13 42 39 42 -3 37.42 +4.58
8 Kilmarnock 33 11 3 19 36 39 53 -14 38.73 -2.73
9 Dundee 33 8 7 18 31 34 61 -27 36.59 -5.59
10 Dundee United 33 6 10 17 28 36 55 -19 35.35 -7.35
11 Dunfermline Athletic 33 6 9 18 27 28 54 -26 39.18 -12.18
12 Livingston 33 7 6 20 27 29 57 -28 34.85 -7.85
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rangers 38 29 6 3 93 78 22 +56 174.55 -81.55
2 Celtic 38 30 2 6 92 85 35 +50 174.36 -82.36
3 Hibernian 38 18 7 13 61 64 57 +7 116.94 -55.94
4 Aberdeen 38 18 7 13 61 44 39 +5 109.03 -48.03
5 Heart of Midlothian 38 13 11 14 50 43 41 +2 102.09 -52.09
6 Motherwell 38 13 9 16 48 46 49 -3 91.00 -43.00
7 Kilmarnock 38 15 4 19 49 49 55 -6 84.94 -35.94
8 Inverness CT 38 11 11 16 44 41 47 -6 87.04 -43.04
9 Dundee United 38 8 12 18 36 41 59 -18 65.66 -29.66
10 Livingston 38 9 8 21 35 34 61 -27 61.40 -26.40
11 Dunfermline Athletic 38 8 10 20 34 34 60 -26 60.41 -26.41
12 Dundee 38 8 9 21 33 37 71 -34 64.23 -31.23

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rangers 2027 93 71.12 +21.88 94.7% 46 60 67 71 76 82 91
Celtic 1988 92 74.57 +17.43 92.2% 49 64 70 75 79 85 95
Heart of Midlothian 1759 50 54.20 -4.20 21.9% 27 42 49 54 59 66 82
Aberdeen 1758 61 42.54 +18.46 91.6% 14 31 37 43 47 55 71
Hibernian 1740 61 45.39 +15.61 93.3% 18 33 40 45 50 58 73
Motherwell 1732 48 43.14 +4.86 52.4% 15 31 38 43 48 55 69
Kilmarnock 1702 49 38.73 +10.27 38.0% 15 27 34 39 44 51 66
Inverness CT 1697 44 37.42 +6.58 76.0% 10 26 33 37 42 49 63
Dundee United 1644 36 35.35 +0.65 16.6% 10 24 31 35 40 47 66
Livingston 1633 35 34.85 +0.15 14.3% 11 23 30 35 40 47 63
Dunfermline Athletic 1625 34 39.18 -5.18 5.1% 15 27 34 39 44 51 69
Dundee 1569 33 36.59 -3.59 23.9% 10 25 32 37 41 48 64

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ABE CEL DUN DU DA HOM HIB IC KIL LIV MOT RAN
Aberdeen
1-0-3
2.00
0-2-1
5.29
2-1-0
4.49
2-0-1
4.12
1-1-2
4.23
2-0-2
5.39
2-1-0
4.44
3-0-0
4.45
3-0-0
4.92
2-1-1
5.55
0-1-3
2.58
Celtic
3-0-1
9.29
2-1-0
7.26
3-0-0
7.22
3-0-0
7.14
3-0-1
8.52
2-1-1
9.04
3-0-0
6.91
3-0-0
6.88
3-0-0
7.27
3-0-1
9.17
2-0-2
6.02
Dundee
1-2-0
3.07
0-1-2
1.26
2-1-1
5.49
1-0-3
5.38
0-1-2
2.92
0-1-2
3.39
1-1-2
4.64
2-0-2
5.10
0-2-2
5.49
1-0-2
4.03
0-0-3
1.51
Dundee United
0-1-2
3.85
0-0-3
1.29
1-1-2
5.62
0-2-2
5.23
1-1-1
2.63
0-0-3
3.03
2-2-0
5.20
1-1-2
5.28
2-2-0
5.69
0-0-3
3.31
1-2-0
1.22
Dunfermline Athletic
1-0-2
4.22
0-0-3
1.35
3-0-1
5.74
2-2-0
5.89
1-1-1
2.97
0-1-2
3.69
0-2-2
5.48
1-0-3
5.09
0-2-2
5.60
0-2-1
3.86
0-0-3
1.52
Heart of Midlothian
2-1-1
6.91
1-0-3
2.69
2-1-0
5.44
1-1-1
5.74
1-1-1
5.38
1-2-1
6.39
1-1-1
5.71
2-1-0
5.61
2-1-0
6.10
0-1-3
7.15
0-1-3
3.05
Hibernian
2-0-2
5.72
1-1-2
2.23
2-1-0
4.96
3-0-0
5.33
2-1-0
4.65
1-2-1
4.73
2-0-1
4.80
1-0-2
4.71
2-0-1
5.54
2-2-0
5.65
0-0-4
2.48
Inverness CT
0-1-2
3.90
0-0-3
1.56
2-1-1
6.49
0-2-2
5.92
2-2-0
5.63
1-1-1
2.65
1-0-2
3.54
1-1-2
6.00
2-0-2
5.76
2-1-0
3.59
0-2-1
1.44
Kilmarnock
0-0-3
3.89
0-0-3
1.58
2-0-2
6.01
2-1-1
5.83
3-0-1
6.02
0-1-2
2.76
2-0-1
3.63
2-1-1
5.13
2-0-2
6.25
2-1-0
3.34
0-0-3
1.46
Livingston
0-0-3
3.43
0-0-3
1.25
2-2-0
5.63
0-2-2
5.42
2-2-0
5.51
0-1-2
2.29
1-0-2
2.82
2-0-2
5.36
2-0-2
4.87
0-1-2
3.26
0-0-3
1.59
Motherwell
1-1-2
5.57
1-0-3
2.10
2-0-1
4.31
3-0-0
5.03
1-2-0
4.47
3-1-0
3.99
0-2-2
5.46
0-1-2
4.75
0-1-2
5.00
2-1-0
5.09
0-0-4
2.36
Rangers
3-1-0
8.64
2-0-2
5.10
3-0-0
6.98
0-2-1
7.31
3-0-0
6.95
3-1-0
8.14
4-0-0
8.75
1-2-0
7.04
3-0-0
7.03
3-0-0
6.88
4-0-0
8.89

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.90 +11.7
Allowed 0.73 -13.1
Differential 0.97 +7.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.82%8.77%7.46%4.82%0.88%0.66%27.41%
18.77%13.16%8.55%3.07%1.97%35.53%
27.46%8.55%2.63%2.41%0.66%0.22%21.93%
34.82%3.07%2.41%10.31%
40.88%1.97%0.66%0.44%3.95%
5+0.66%0.22%0.88%
Total27.41%35.53%21.93%10.31%3.95%0.88%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.31 +0.00
SD 1.15 1.15 1.79
CV 0.88 0.88
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 228

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.53%13.16%2.63%2.63%28.95%
115.79%7.89%7.89%5.26%36.84%
210.53%10.53%2.63%23.68%
32.63%2.63%5.26%10.53%
4
5+
Total39.47%34.21%15.79%7.89%2.63%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.16 1.03 +0.13
SD 0.97 1.15 1.53
CV 0.84 1.12
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.89%7.89%
110.53%2.63%2.63%15.79%
215.79%13.16%5.26%2.63%36.84%
315.79%5.26%7.89%28.95%
42.63%5.26%7.89%
5+2.63%2.63%
Total47.37%18.42%28.95%5.26%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.24 0.92 +1.32
SD 1.22 1.00 1.73
CV 0.54 1.08
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.63%10.53%5.26%13.16%2.63%2.63%36.84%
17.89%13.16%10.53%5.26%2.63%39.47%
27.89%5.26%2.63%15.79%
35.26%5.26%
42.63%2.63%
5+
Total10.53%36.84%21.05%21.05%7.89%2.63%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.97 1.87 -0.89
SD 1.00 1.26 1.67
CV 1.03 0.67
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.16%5.26%5.26%23.68%
17.89%28.95%7.89%2.63%47.37%
22.63%7.89%2.63%7.89%2.63%2.63%26.32%
32.63%2.63%
4
5+
Total13.16%50.00%15.79%13.16%5.26%2.63%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 1.55 -0.47
SD 0.78 1.20 1.37
CV 0.73 0.77
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.89%7.89%13.16%7.89%2.63%2.63%42.11%
15.26%18.42%15.79%2.63%42.11%
27.89%7.89%
32.63%2.63%
42.63%2.63%
5+2.63%2.63%
Total15.79%39.47%28.95%7.89%5.26%2.63%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.58 -0.68
SD 1.13 1.27 1.96
CV 1.27 0.80
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.53%5.26%13.16%2.63%31.58%
110.53%15.79%13.16%39.47%
22.63%5.26%2.63%2.63%13.16%
310.53%2.63%2.63%15.79%
4
5+
Total34.21%28.95%31.58%5.26%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.13 1.08 +0.05
SD 1.04 0.94 1.54
CV 0.92 0.87
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.89%10.53%18.42%
15.26%7.89%7.89%5.26%2.63%28.95%
25.26%18.42%7.89%31.58%
32.63%2.63%2.63%7.89%
42.63%7.89%2.63%13.16%
5+
Total15.79%44.74%18.42%15.79%5.26%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.50 +0.18
SD 1.25 1.11 1.89
CV 0.74 0.74
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.26%13.16%5.26%5.26%28.95%
15.26%21.05%10.53%7.89%44.74%
210.53%5.26%2.63%18.42%
32.63%2.63%5.26%
42.63%2.63%
5+
Total23.68%42.11%21.05%13.16%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 1.24 -0.16
SD 0.97 0.97 1.52
CV 0.90 0.78
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.79%2.63%10.53%28.95%
110.53%7.89%5.26%7.89%2.63%34.21%
210.53%5.26%2.63%2.63%2.63%23.68%
32.63%5.26%7.89%
42.63%2.63%
5+2.63%2.63%
Total26.32%34.21%13.16%21.05%5.26%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 1.45 -0.16
SD 1.21 1.25 1.92
CV 0.94 0.86
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.89%2.63%23.68%2.63%5.26%42.11%
17.89%13.16%7.89%2.63%5.26%36.84%
25.26%2.63%2.63%10.53%
35.26%5.26%10.53%
4
5+
Total26.32%21.05%31.58%7.89%13.16%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.61 -0.71
SD 0.98 1.33 1.84
CV 1.10 0.83
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.89%10.53%10.53%28.95%
15.26%13.16%10.53%5.26%34.21%
210.53%7.89%2.63%5.26%26.32%
32.63%2.63%2.63%7.89%
42.63%2.63%
5+
Total26.32%34.21%28.95%5.26%5.26%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 1.29 -0.08
SD 1.04 1.09 1.50
CV 0.86 0.84
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.26%5.26%10.53%
113.16%10.53%2.63%26.32%
215.79%13.16%28.95%
310.53%2.63%5.26%18.42%
42.63%10.53%13.16%
5+2.63%2.63%
Total50.00%42.11%7.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.05 0.58 +1.47
SD 1.29 0.64 1.41
CV 0.63 1.11
Max 5 2 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 38

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Livingston 35 61.40 -26.40
2 Dunfermline Athletic 34 60.41 -26.41
3 Dundee United 36 65.66 -29.66
4 Dundee 33 64.23 -31.23
5 Kilmarnock 49 84.94 -35.94

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Celtic 92 174.36 -82.36
2 Rangers 93 174.55 -81.55
3 Hibernian 61 116.94 -55.94
4 Heart of Midlothian 50 102.09 -52.09
5 Aberdeen 61 109.03 -48.03

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dundee United 2 Apr 12 – Apr 16 1 in 91
2 Motherwell 5 Nov 13 – Dec 11 1 in 79
3 Rangers 7 Jan 15 – Mar 2 1 in 24
4 Kilmarnock 3 Dec 27 – Jan 15 1 in 20
5 Aberdeen 4 Nov 13 – Dec 4 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kilmarnock 5 Nov 20 – Dec 19 1 in 67
2 Livingston 7 Jan 2 – Feb 19 1 in 67
3 Motherwell 5 Oct 17 – Nov 6 1 in 44
4 Inverness CT 5 Aug 22 – Sep 25 1 in 22
5 Dundee United 5 Mar 2 – Apr 2 1 in 22

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rangers 27 Sep 12 – Apr 3 1 in 105
2 Inverness CT 6 Jan 22 – Mar 12 1 in 88
3 Aberdeen 6 Aug 7 – Sep 18 1 in 75
4 Dundee United 5 Apr 12 – May 7 1 in 49
5 Hibernian 6 Aug 28 – Oct 16 1 in 39

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Heart of Midlothian 7 Apr 13 – May 22 1 in 37
2 Dunfermline Athletic 10 Feb 19 – Apr 30 1 in 30
3 Aberdeen 8 Dec 11 – Feb 12 1 in 26
4 Motherwell 7 Dec 18 – Feb 15 1 in 24
5 Dundee United 9 Sep 11 – Nov 6 1 in 23

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team123456789101112
Rangers36.22%58.79%4.58%0.34%0.07%
Celtic63.17%34.99%1.65%0.16%0.02%0.01%
Hibernian0.04%0.53%13.30%21.86%17.81%13.13%10.85%7.66%6.23%4.33%2.66%1.60%
Aberdeen0.28%6.90%15.25%15.49%14.14%12.22%10.41%9.04%6.80%5.91%3.56%
Heart of Midlothian0.57%4.88%56.18%19.20%8.63%4.91%2.60%1.51%0.86%0.40%0.20%0.06%
Motherwell0.37%7.73%15.88%15.16%14.26%13.15%10.62%7.93%7.06%4.75%3.09%
Kilmarnock0.06%2.42%5.98%9.90%11.04%12.07%12.34%12.72%12.63%11.46%9.38%
Inverness CT0.02%1.79%4.76%8.02%9.79%10.93%12.46%12.98%13.57%13.11%12.57%
Dundee United0.01%0.88%2.94%4.89%6.99%8.92%10.43%12.75%14.78%16.97%20.44%
Livingston0.84%2.42%4.22%6.00%7.96%10.27%11.91%14.58%18.69%23.11%
Dunfermline Athletic0.07%2.41%7.27%10.13%11.56%11.32%12.40%12.38%11.85%11.25%9.36%
Dundee1.32%3.94%5.66%8.17%9.98%11.90%13.20%14.00%15.00%16.83%
Team123456789101112
Rangers71.85%28.15%
Celtic28.15%71.85%
Hibernian79.54%18.47%1.99%
Aberdeen16.91%59.29%23.19%0.61%
Heart of Midlothian3.52%21.60%67.01%7.87%
Motherwell0.03%0.64%7.81%91.52%
Kilmarnock80.98%18.64%0.38%
Inverness CT18.72%73.45%6.94%0.84%0.05%
Dundee United0.30%6.26%55.66%22.87%11.33%3.58%
Livingston0.90%17.00%32.50%28.44%21.16%
Dunfermline Athletic0.37%11.18%23.68%30.44%34.33%
Dundee0.38%8.84%20.11%29.74%40.93%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Points Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+10.53%
Slight Edge
44.74%21.05%34.21%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 36.71 Elo pts.
197 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.37 goals
Neutral
-2+0.19+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.9
One-Team Race
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
36%
Rangers, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.03/gm
Photo Finish
00.200.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.65 * Some Luck: 5.65 to 8.47 * Lucky: 8.47 to 11.29 * Wild Swing: 11.29 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.42 * Close: 1.42 to 2.14 * Off: 2.14 to 2.85 * Way Off: 2.85 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
7.81 points
Some Luck
07.0618
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.67
Close
01.784
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
94.69%
Rangers
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
5.06%
Dunfermline Athletic
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
2.25
Wide Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
66%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 94%
91%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
61%
Very Frequent
0%60%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Frequent
0%16%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.56
Highly Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.37
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.25
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.12
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Chalky
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
As Expected
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.11 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.11 to 0.16 * Above Noise: 0.16 to 0.22 * Well Above Noise: 0.22 and up.
Probability calibration
0.35
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.07
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.071
Well Within Noise
00.1100.25

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff
Celtic 100%
Rangers 100%
Heart of Midlothian 99.96% 0.04%
Hibernian 98.65% 1.35%
Motherwell 97.55% 2.45%
Aberdeen 97.38% 2.62%
Inverness CT 90.51% 9.49%
Kilmarnock 89.66% 10.34%
Dunfermline Athletic 89.44% 10.56%
Dundee 82.01% 17.99%
Dundee United 79.03% 20.97%
Livingston 75.81% 24.19%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff
Aberdeen 100%
Celtic 100%
Heart of Midlothian 100%
Hibernian 100%
Inverness CT 100%
Kilmarnock 100%
Motherwell 100%
Rangers 100%
Dundee United 96.42% 3.58%
Livingston 78.84% 21.16%
Dunfermline Athletic 65.67% 34.33%
Dundee 59.07% 40.93%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2004-08-07 Dundee United D 1-1 1722 1697 47.7% 22.1% 30.2% -0.8 1
2004-08-07 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-1 1697 1722 30.2% 22.1% 47.7% +0.8 1
2004-08-07 Heart of Midlothian L 0-1 1708 1797 31.9% 22.2% 46.0% -7.5 0
2004-08-07 @ Dundee W 1-0 1797 1708 46.0% 22.2% 31.9% +7.5 3
2004-08-07 Inverness CT W 3-0 1699 1684 46.3% 22.1% 31.6% +20.2 3
2004-08-07 @ Livingston L 0-3 1684 1699 31.6% 22.1% 46.3% -20.2 0
2004-08-07 Kilmarnock L 0-1 1688 1687 44.4% 22.2% 33.4% -9.7 0
2004-08-07 @ Hibernian W 1-0 1687 1688 33.4% 22.2% 44.4% +9.7 3
2004-08-07 Rangers D 0-0 1657 1887 17.4% 20.2% 62.4% +2.5 1
2004-08-07 @ Aberdeen D 0-0 1887 1657 62.4% 20.2% 17.4% -2.5 1
2004-08-08 Motherwell W 2-0 1955 1695 71.7% 17.7% 10.6% +5.0 3
2004-08-08 @ Celtic L 0-2 1695 1955 10.6% 17.7% 71.7% -5.0 0
2004-08-14 Aberdeen D 0-0 1804 1660 61.6% 20.4% 18.0% -2.4 4
2004-08-14 @ Heart of Midlothian D 0-0 1660 1804 18.0% 20.4% 61.6% +2.4 2
2004-08-14 Celtic L 2-4 1697 1960 14.9% 19.5% 65.5% -5.5 3
2004-08-14 @ Kilmarnock W 4-2 1960 1697 65.5% 19.5% 14.9% +5.5 6
2004-08-14 Hibernian L 1-2 1690 1678 45.8% 22.2% 32.0% -9.4 0
2004-08-14 @ Motherwell W 2-1 1678 1690 32.0% 22.2% 45.8% +9.4 3
2004-08-14 Livingston W 4-0 1884 1719 63.6% 20.0% 16.4% +14.7 4
2004-08-14 @ Rangers L 0-4 1719 1884 16.4% 20.0% 63.6% -14.7 3
2004-08-15 Dundee L 1-2 1698 1700 43.9% 22.2% 33.8% -9.1 1
2004-08-15 @ Dundee United W 2-1 1700 1698 33.8% 22.2% 43.9% +9.1 3
2004-08-15 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-0 1664 1722 36.1% 22.3% 41.6% +17.4 3
2004-08-15 @ Inverness CT L 0-2 1722 1664 41.6% 22.3% 36.1% -17.4 1
2004-08-21 Aberdeen L 0-1 1704 1662 49.8% 21.9% 28.2% -10.7 1
2004-08-21 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-0 1662 1704 28.2% 21.9% 49.8% +10.7 5
2004-08-21 Dundee United D 1-1 1704 1689 46.4% 22.1% 31.5% -0.7 4
2004-08-21 @ Livingston D 1-1 1689 1704 31.5% 22.1% 46.4% +0.7 2
2004-08-21 Hibernian W 4-1 1899 1688 67.8% 18.9% 13.3% +7.7 7
2004-08-21 @ Rangers L 1-4 1688 1899 13.3% 18.9% 67.8% -7.7 3
2004-08-21 Kilmarnock W 3-0 1802 1691 58.0% 21.0% 21.0% +14.2 7
2004-08-21 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-3 1691 1802 21.0% 21.0% 58.0% -14.2 3
2004-08-21 Motherwell L 1-2 1709 1680 48.2% 22.1% 29.8% -9.8 3
2004-08-21 @ Dundee W 2-1 1680 1709 29.8% 22.1% 48.2% +9.8 3
2004-08-22 Celtic L 1-3 1681 1965 13.5% 19.0% 67.4% -5.6 3
2004-08-22 @ Inverness CT W 3-1 1965 1681 67.4% 19.0% 13.5% +5.6 9
2004-08-28 Dundee D 4-4 1680 1700 41.5% 22.3% 36.2% -0.1 4
2004-08-28 @ Hibernian D 4-4 1700 1680 36.2% 22.3% 41.5% +0.1 4
2004-08-28 Heart of Midlothian W 2-0 1690 1816 27.4% 21.9% 50.8% +20.5 6
2004-08-28 @ Motherwell L 0-2 1816 1690 50.8% 21.9% 27.4% -20.5 7
2004-08-28 Inverness CT W 2-1 1689 1675 46.2% 22.2% 31.7% +7.0 5
2004-08-28 @ Dundee United L 1-2 1675 1689 31.7% 22.2% 46.2% -7.0 3
2004-08-28 Livingston W 2-0 1673 1704 39.9% 22.3% 37.7% +16.1 8
2004-08-28 @ Aberdeen L 0-2 1704 1673 37.7% 22.3% 39.9% -16.1 4
2004-08-29 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-0 1677 1693 42.0% 22.3% 35.7% +8.2 6
2004-08-29 @ Kilmarnock L 0-1 1693 1677 35.7% 22.3% 42.0% -8.2 1
2004-08-29 Rangers W 1-0 1971 1907 52.6% 21.7% 25.7% +6.2 12
2004-08-29 @ Celtic L 0-1 1907 1971 25.7% 21.7% 52.6% -6.2 7
2004-09-11 Aberdeen D 1-1 1696 1689 45.3% 22.2% 32.5% -0.6 6
2004-09-11 @ Dundee United D 1-1 1689 1696 32.5% 22.2% 45.3% +0.6 9
2004-09-11 Dundee W 3-0 1977 1700 73.0% 17.2% 9.8% +6.7 15
2004-09-11 @ Celtic L 0-3 1700 1977 9.8% 17.2% 73.0% -6.7 4
2004-09-11 Hibernian L 1-2 1668 1680 42.6% 22.3% 35.1% -8.8 3
2004-09-11 @ Inverness CT W 2-1 1680 1668 35.1% 22.3% 42.6% +8.8 7
2004-09-11 Kilmarnock L 0-2 1687 1685 44.5% 22.2% 33.2% -18.4 4
2004-09-11 @ Livingston W 2-0 1685 1687 33.2% 22.2% 44.5% +18.4 9
2004-09-11 Motherwell D 1-1 1685 1711 40.7% 22.3% 37.0% -0.2 2
2004-09-11 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-1 1711 1685 37.0% 22.3% 40.7% +0.2 7
2004-09-12 Rangers D 0-0 1796 1901 29.9% 22.1% 48.0% +1.0 8
2004-09-12 @ Heart of Midlothian D 0-0 1901 1796 48.0% 22.1% 29.9% -1.0 8
2004-09-18 Aberdeen L 0-1 1704 1690 46.2% 22.2% 31.7% -10.0 9
2004-09-18 @ Kilmarnock W 1-0 1690 1704 31.7% 22.2% 46.2% +10.0 12
2004-09-18 Dundee United W 4-2 1711 1696 46.3% 22.1% 31.6% +10.8 10
2004-09-18 @ Motherwell L 2-4 1696 1711 31.6% 22.1% 46.3% -10.8 6
2004-09-18 Livingston D 0-0 1693 1669 47.5% 22.1% 30.4% -0.9 5
2004-09-18 @ Dundee D 0-0 1669 1693 30.4% 22.1% 47.5% +0.9 5
2004-09-19 Celtic D 2-2 1689 1984 12.9% 18.8% 68.3% +2.1 8
2004-09-19 @ Hibernian D 2-2 1984 1689 68.3% 18.8% 12.9% -2.1 16
2004-09-19 Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 1685 1797 29.1% 22.0% 48.9% +10.5 5
2004-09-19 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-1 1797 1685 48.9% 22.0% 29.1% -10.5 8
2004-09-19 Inverness CT W 1-0 1900 1660 70.1% 18.2% 11.7% +2.9 11
2004-09-19 @ Rangers L 0-1 1660 1900 11.7% 18.2% 70.1% -2.9 3
2004-09-25 Dundee United W 5-2 1694 1685 45.4% 22.2% 32.4% +15.1 12
2004-09-25 @ Kilmarnock L 2-5 1685 1694 32.4% 22.2% 45.4% -15.1 6
2004-09-25 Dunfermline Athletic W 3-0 1982 1696 73.6% 17.0% 9.4% +6.4 19
2004-09-25 @ Celtic L 0-3 1696 1982 9.4% 17.0% 73.6% -6.4 5
2004-09-25 Hibernian L 0-1 1700 1691 45.4% 22.2% 32.4% -9.9 12
2004-09-25 @ Aberdeen W 1-0 1691 1700 32.4% 22.2% 45.4% +9.9 11
2004-09-25 Inverness CT W 1-0 1786 1657 60.0% 20.7% 19.3% +4.8 11
2004-09-25 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-1 1657 1786 19.3% 20.7% 60.0% -4.8 3
2004-09-25 Motherwell L 2-3 1670 1722 37.0% 22.3% 40.7% -7.5 5
2004-09-25 @ Livingston W 3-2 1722 1670 40.7% 22.3% 37.0% +7.5 13
2004-09-26 Rangers L 0-2 1692 1903 18.9% 20.6% 60.5% -8.9 5
2004-09-26 @ Dundee W 2-0 1903 1692 60.5% 20.6% 18.9% +8.9 14
2004-10-02 Dundee D 1-1 1690 1683 45.1% 22.2% 32.7% -0.6 13
2004-10-02 @ Aberdeen D 1-1 1683 1690 32.7% 22.2% 45.1% +0.6 6
2004-10-02 Hibernian D 1-1 1689 1701 42.6% 22.3% 35.1% -0.3 6
2004-10-02 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-1 1701 1689 35.1% 22.3% 42.6% +0.3 12
2004-10-03 Celtic L 0-3 1670 1988 11.6% 18.2% 70.2% -8.0 6
2004-10-03 @ Dundee United W 3-0 1988 1670 70.2% 18.2% 11.6% +7.9 22
2004-10-03 Kilmarnock W 2-0 1912 1709 67.0% 19.1% 13.9% +6.6 17
2004-10-03 @ Rangers L 0-2 1709 1912 13.9% 19.1% 67.0% -6.6 12
2004-10-03 Livingston D 0-0 1791 1662 59.9% 20.7% 19.4% -2.2 12
2004-10-03 @ Heart of Midlothian D 0-0 1662 1791 19.4% 20.7% 59.9% +2.2 6
2004-10-03 Motherwell D 1-1 1652 1729 33.5% 22.2% 44.3% +0.5 4
2004-10-03 @ Inverness CT D 1-1 1729 1652 44.3% 22.2% 33.5% -0.5 14
2004-10-16 Aberdeen L 1-3 1652 1689 39.1% 22.3% 38.6% -14.3 4
2004-10-16 @ Inverness CT W 3-1 1689 1652 38.6% 22.3% 39.1% +14.3 16
2004-10-16 Dundee United W 2-0 1701 1662 49.5% 22.0% 28.6% +12.8 15
2004-10-16 @ Hibernian L 0-2 1662 1701 28.6% 22.0% 49.5% -12.8 6
2004-10-16 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-0 1665 1689 40.9% 22.3% 36.8% +15.8 9
2004-10-16 @ Livingston L 0-2 1689 1665 36.8% 22.3% 40.9% -15.8 6
2004-10-16 Heart of Midlothian W 3-0 1996 1789 67.4% 19.0% 13.6% +9.3 25
2004-10-16 @ Celtic L 0-3 1789 1996 13.6% 19.0% 67.4% -9.3 12
2004-10-16 Kilmarnock W 3-1 1684 1702 41.7% 22.3% 36.0% +13.4 9
2004-10-16 @ Dundee L 1-3 1702 1684 36.0% 22.3% 41.7% -13.4 12
2004-10-17 Rangers L 0-2 1729 1918 20.8% 21.0% 58.2% -9.7 14
2004-10-17 @ Motherwell W 2-0 1918 1729 58.2% 21.0% 20.8% +9.7 20
2004-10-23 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-2 1697 1673 47.5% 22.1% 30.4% -9.7 9
2004-10-23 @ Dundee W 2-1 1673 1697 30.4% 22.1% 47.5% +9.7 9
2004-10-23 Inverness CT D 2-2 1689 1638 50.9% 21.9% 27.2% -0.8 13
2004-10-23 @ Kilmarnock D 2-2 1638 1689 27.2% 21.9% 50.9% +0.8 5
2004-10-23 Motherwell W 2-1 1703 1719 42.1% 22.3% 35.6% +7.7 19
2004-10-23 @ Aberdeen L 1-2 1719 1703 35.6% 22.3% 42.1% -7.7 14
2004-10-24 Celtic L 2-4 1681 2005 11.2% 18.0% 70.7% -4.1 9
2004-10-24 @ Livingston W 4-2 2005 1681 70.7% 18.0% 11.2% +4.1 28
2004-10-24 Dundee United D 1-1 1928 1649 73.0% 17.2% 9.8% -3.2 21
2004-10-24 @ Rangers D 1-1 1649 1928 9.8% 17.2% 73.0% +3.2 7
2004-10-24 Hibernian W 2-1 1779 1714 52.8% 21.7% 25.6% +5.8 15
2004-10-24 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1714 1779 25.6% 21.7% 52.8% -5.8 15
2004-10-27 Aberdeen L 2-3 2010 1711 74.4% 16.7% 8.9% -13.6 28
2004-10-27 @ Celtic W 3-2 1711 2010 8.9% 16.7% 74.4% +13.6 22
2004-10-27 Dundee W 2-1 1639 1688 37.4% 22.3% 40.3% +8.5 8
2004-10-27 @ Inverness CT L 1-2 1688 1639 40.3% 22.3% 37.4% -8.5 9
2004-10-27 Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1652 1785 26.6% 21.8% 51.6% +1.2 8
2004-10-27 @ Dundee United D 1-1 1785 1652 51.6% 21.8% 26.6% -1.2 16
2004-10-27 Kilmarnock L 0-1 1711 1688 47.4% 22.1% 30.5% -10.2 14
2004-10-27 @ Motherwell W 1-0 1688 1711 30.5% 22.1% 47.4% +10.2 16
2004-10-27 Livingston W 2-1 1708 1676 48.5% 22.0% 29.5% +6.6 18
2004-10-27 @ Hibernian L 1-2 1676 1708 29.5% 22.0% 48.5% -6.6 9
2004-10-27 Rangers L 1-2 1683 1925 16.4% 20.0% 63.6% -3.9 9
2004-10-27 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-1 1925 1683 63.6% 20.0% 16.4% +3.9 24
2004-10-30 Celtic L 2-3 1701 1996 12.9% 18.8% 68.3% -2.9 14
2004-10-30 @ Motherwell W 3-2 1996 1701 68.3% 18.8% 12.9% +2.9 31
2004-10-30 Dundee W 3-0 1784 1679 57.4% 21.1% 21.5% +14.5 19
2004-10-30 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-3 1679 1784 21.5% 21.1% 57.4% -14.5 9
2004-10-30 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-2 1654 1679 40.7% 22.3% 37.0% -8.5 8
2004-10-30 @ Dundee United W 2-1 1679 1654 37.0% 22.3% 40.7% +8.5 12
2004-10-30 Hibernian W 3-1 1698 1715 41.9% 22.3% 35.8% +13.3 19
2004-10-30 @ Kilmarnock L 1-3 1715 1698 35.8% 22.3% 41.9% -13.3 18
2004-10-30 Livingston W 2-0 1647 1670 41.1% 22.3% 36.6% +15.7 11
2004-10-30 @ Inverness CT L 0-2 1670 1647 36.6% 22.3% 41.1% -15.7 9
2004-10-31 Aberdeen W 5-0 1928 1725 67.1% 19.1% 13.8% +15.3 27
2004-10-31 @ Rangers L 0-5 1725 1928 13.8% 19.1% 67.1% -15.3 22
2004-11-06 Dundee United W 1-0 1665 1645 46.9% 22.1% 31.0% +7.3 12
2004-11-06 @ Dundee L 0-1 1645 1665 31.0% 22.1% 46.9% -7.3 8
2004-11-06 Inverness CT D 1-1 1687 1663 47.6% 22.1% 30.4% -0.8 13
2004-11-06 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-1 1663 1687 30.4% 22.1% 47.6% +0.8 12
2004-11-06 Kilmarnock W 2-1 1999 1712 73.7% 17.0% 9.4% +2.2 34
2004-11-06 @ Celtic L 1-2 1712 1999 9.4% 17.0% 73.7% -2.2 19
2004-11-06 Motherwell W 1-0 1701 1698 44.7% 22.2% 33.1% +7.7 21
2004-11-06 @ Hibernian L 0-1 1698 1701 33.1% 22.2% 44.7% -7.7 14
2004-11-07 Heart of Midlothian L 0-1 1709 1799 31.9% 22.2% 45.9% -7.5 22
2004-11-07 @ Aberdeen W 1-0 1799 1709 45.9% 22.2% 31.9% +7.5 22
2004-11-07 Rangers L 1-4 1654 1944 13.2% 18.9% 67.9% -7.7 9
2004-11-07 @ Livingston W 4-1 1944 1654 67.9% 18.9% 13.2% +7.7 30
2004-11-13 Dundee W 3-0 1690 1672 46.8% 22.1% 31.1% +20.0 17
2004-11-13 @ Motherwell L 0-3 1672 1690 31.1% 22.1% 46.8% -20.0 12
2004-11-13 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-1 1702 1687 46.3% 22.1% 31.5% +7.0 25
2004-11-13 @ Aberdeen L 1-2 1687 1702 31.5% 22.1% 46.3% -7.0 13
2004-11-13 Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1709 1806 30.9% 22.1% 46.9% +0.8 20
2004-11-13 @ Kilmarnock D 1-1 1806 1709 46.9% 22.1% 30.9% -0.8 23
2004-11-13 Inverness CT W 3-0 2001 1664 77.0% 15.6% 7.4% +4.9 37
2004-11-13 @ Celtic L 0-3 1664 2001 7.4% 15.6% 77.0% -4.9 12
2004-11-13 Livingston W 1-0 1638 1646 43.0% 22.3% 34.7% +8.0 11
2004-11-13 @ Dundee United L 0-1 1646 1638 34.7% 22.3% 43.0% -8.0 9
2004-11-14 Rangers L 0-1 1709 1951 16.4% 20.0% 63.6% -4.1 21
2004-11-14 @ Hibernian W 1-0 1951 1709 63.6% 20.0% 16.4% +4.1 33
2004-11-20 Aberdeen L 0-2 1638 1709 34.4% 22.3% 43.4% -14.9 9
2004-11-20 @ Livingston W 2-0 1709 1638 43.4% 22.3% 34.4% +14.9 28
2004-11-20 Celtic W 2-0 1956 2006 37.1% 22.3% 40.6% +17.0 36
2004-11-20 @ Rangers L 0-2 2006 1956 40.6% 22.3% 37.1% -17.0 37
2004-11-20 Hibernian L 1-4 1652 1705 36.7% 22.3% 40.9% -19.3 12
2004-11-20 @ Dundee W 4-1 1705 1652 40.9% 22.3% 36.7% +19.3 24
2004-11-20 Kilmarnock W 4-1 1680 1710 40.0% 22.3% 37.7% +19.7 16
2004-11-20 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-4 1710 1680 37.7% 22.3% 40.0% -19.7 20
2004-11-20 Motherwell L 0-1 1805 1710 56.2% 21.3% 22.5% -11.9 23
2004-11-20 @ Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 1710 1805 22.5% 21.3% 56.2% +11.9 20
2004-11-23 Dundee United D 1-1 1659 1646 46.0% 22.2% 31.8% -0.7 13
2004-11-23 @ Inverness CT D 1-1 1646 1659 31.8% 22.2% 46.0% +0.7 12
2004-11-27 Dundee United W 1-0 1724 1646 54.2% 21.5% 24.3% +5.9 31
2004-11-27 @ Aberdeen L 0-1 1646 1724 24.3% 21.5% 54.2% -5.9 12
2004-11-27 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-1 1722 1699 47.3% 22.1% 30.6% +6.8 23
2004-11-27 @ Motherwell L 1-2 1699 1722 30.6% 22.1% 47.3% -6.8 16
2004-11-27 Inverness CT W 2-1 1724 1658 52.8% 21.7% 25.5% +5.8 27
2004-11-27 @ Hibernian L 1-2 1658 1724 25.5% 21.7% 52.8% -5.8 13
2004-11-27 Livingston L 1-3 1690 1624 52.9% 21.7% 25.4% -18.4 20
2004-11-27 @ Kilmarnock W 3-1 1624 1690 25.4% 21.7% 52.9% +18.4 12
2004-11-28 Celtic D 2-2 1633 1989 9.7% 17.2% 73.1% +2.4 13
2004-11-28 @ Dundee D 2-2 1989 1633 73.1% 17.2% 9.7% -2.4 38
2004-11-28 Heart of Midlothian W 3-2 1973 1793 64.9% 19.7% 15.4% +3.5 39
2004-11-28 @ Rangers L 2-3 1793 1973 15.4% 19.7% 64.9% -3.5 23
2004-12-04 Dundee W 1-0 1642 1635 45.2% 22.2% 32.6% +7.6 15
2004-12-04 @ Livingston L 0-1 1635 1642 32.6% 22.2% 45.2% -7.6 13
2004-12-04 Dunfermline Athletic W 3-0 1790 1693 56.5% 21.2% 22.2% +15.0 26
2004-12-04 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-3 1693 1790 22.2% 21.2% 56.5% -15.0 16
2004-12-04 Hibernian W 2-1 1986 1730 71.4% 17.8% 10.8% +2.5 41
2004-12-04 @ Celtic L 1-2 1730 1986 10.8% 17.8% 71.4% -2.5 27
2004-12-04 Kilmarnock W 3-2 1730 1672 51.8% 21.8% 26.4% +5.7 34
2004-12-04 @ Aberdeen L 2-3 1672 1730 26.4% 21.8% 51.8% -5.7 20
2004-12-04 Motherwell L 0-1 1641 1729 32.0% 22.2% 45.9% -7.5 12
2004-12-04 @ Dundee United W 1-0 1729 1641 45.9% 22.2% 32.0% +7.5 26
2004-12-05 Rangers D 1-1 1652 1976 11.3% 18.0% 70.7% +3.1 14
2004-12-05 @ Inverness CT D 1-1 1976 1652 70.7% 18.0% 11.3% -3.0 40
2004-12-11 Aberdeen W 2-1 1728 1735 43.2% 22.3% 34.6% +7.5 30
2004-12-11 @ Hibernian L 1-2 1735 1728 34.6% 22.3% 43.2% -7.5 34
2004-12-11 Dundee W 3-0 1973 1627 77.5% 15.3% 7.1% +4.7 43
2004-12-11 @ Rangers L 0-3 1627 1973 7.1% 15.3% 77.5% -4.7 13
2004-12-11 Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1655 1805 24.8% 21.6% 53.6% +1.4 15
2004-12-11 @ Inverness CT D 1-1 1805 1655 53.6% 21.6% 24.8% -1.4 27
2004-12-11 Kilmarnock W 3-0 1633 1666 39.6% 22.3% 38.1% +23.5 15
2004-12-11 @ Dundee United L 0-3 1666 1633 38.1% 22.3% 39.6% -23.5 20
2004-12-11 Livingston W 2-0 1736 1650 55.3% 21.4% 23.3% +10.8 29
2004-12-11 @ Motherwell L 0-2 1650 1736 23.3% 21.4% 55.3% -10.8 15
2004-12-12 Celtic L 0-2 1678 1989 12.0% 18.4% 69.7% -5.6 16
2004-12-12 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-0 1989 1678 69.7% 18.4% 12.0% +5.7 44
2004-12-18 Aberdeen W 1-0 1623 1728 29.9% 22.1% 48.1% +10.4 16
2004-12-18 @ Dundee L 0-1 1728 1623 48.1% 22.1% 29.9% -10.4 34
2004-12-18 Dundee United W 1-0 1995 1657 77.1% 15.5% 7.4% +1.8 47
2004-12-18 @ Celtic L 0-1 1657 1995 7.4% 15.5% 77.1% -1.8 15
2004-12-18 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-1 1735 1672 52.5% 21.7% 25.8% +5.9 33
2004-12-18 @ Hibernian L 1-2 1672 1735 25.8% 21.7% 52.5% -5.9 16
2004-12-18 Inverness CT L 1-2 1747 1657 55.7% 21.3% 22.9% -11.1 29
2004-12-18 @ Motherwell W 2-1 1657 1747 22.9% 21.3% 55.7% +11.1 18
2004-12-19 Rangers L 0-1 1643 1978 10.7% 17.7% 71.5% -2.7 20
2004-12-19 @ Kilmarnock W 1-0 1978 1643 71.5% 17.7% 10.7% +2.7 46
2004-12-26 Celtic L 0-2 1804 1996 20.5% 20.9% 58.6% -9.6 27
2004-12-26 @ Heart of Midlothian W 2-0 1996 1804 58.6% 20.9% 20.5% +9.6 50
2004-12-27 Dundee W 3-1 1640 1633 45.2% 22.2% 32.6% +12.4 23
2004-12-27 @ Kilmarnock L 1-3 1633 1640 32.6% 22.2% 45.2% -12.4 16
2004-12-27 Hibernian L 1-4 1655 1741 32.3% 22.2% 45.5% -17.4 15
2004-12-27 @ Dundee United W 4-1 1741 1655 45.5% 22.2% 32.3% +17.4 36
2004-12-27 Inverness CT D 0-0 1718 1668 50.8% 21.9% 27.3% -1.2 35
2004-12-27 @ Aberdeen D 0-0 1668 1718 27.3% 21.9% 50.8% +1.2 19
2004-12-27 Livingston D 0-0 1666 1639 47.9% 22.1% 30.0% -0.9 17
2004-12-27 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-0 1639 1666 30.0% 22.1% 47.9% +0.9 16
2004-12-27 Motherwell W 4-1 1980 1736 70.5% 18.1% 11.5% +6.6 49
2004-12-27 @ Rangers L 1-4 1736 1980 11.5% 18.1% 70.5% -6.6 29
2005-01-01 Dundee W 3-1 1665 1621 50.1% 21.9% 27.9% +10.9 20
2005-01-01 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-3 1621 1665 27.9% 21.9% 50.1% -10.9 16
2005-01-01 Rangers D 1-1 1637 1987 10.0% 17.3% 72.6% +3.2 16
2005-01-01 @ Dundee United D 1-1 1987 1637 72.6% 17.3% 10.0% -3.2 50
2005-01-02 Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1758 1794 39.2% 22.3% 38.4% -0.0 37
2005-01-02 @ Hibernian D 1-1 1794 1758 38.4% 22.3% 39.2% +0.0 28
2005-01-02 Livingston W 2-1 2006 1640 78.8% 14.7% 6.5% +1.5 53
2005-01-02 @ Celtic L 1-2 1640 2006 6.5% 14.7% 78.8% -1.5 16
2005-01-03 Aberdeen D 0-0 1730 1716 46.1% 22.2% 31.8% -0.7 30
2005-01-03 @ Motherwell D 0-0 1716 1730 31.8% 22.2% 46.1% +0.7 36
2005-01-03 Kilmarnock L 0-2 1669 1652 46.5% 22.1% 31.3% -19.0 19
2005-01-03 @ Inverness CT W 2-0 1652 1669 31.3% 22.1% 46.5% +19.0 26
2005-01-15 Dundee United W 3-2 1794 1641 62.4% 20.2% 17.3% +3.9 31
2005-01-15 @ Heart of Midlothian L 2-3 1641 1794 17.3% 20.2% 62.4% -3.9 16
2005-01-15 Dunfermline Athletic W 3-0 1984 1676 75.1% 16.4% 8.5% +5.7 53
2005-01-15 @ Rangers L 0-3 1676 1984 8.5% 16.4% 75.1% -5.7 20
2005-01-15 Hibernian L 0-2 1638 1758 28.1% 21.9% 50.0% -12.6 16
2005-01-15 @ Livingston W 2-0 1758 1638 50.0% 21.9% 28.1% +12.7 40
2005-01-15 Inverness CT W 3-1 1610 1650 38.6% 22.3% 39.1% +14.3 19
2005-01-15 @ Dundee L 1-3 1650 1610 39.1% 22.3% 38.6% -14.3 19
2005-01-15 Motherwell W 2-0 1672 1729 36.2% 22.3% 41.5% +17.3 29
2005-01-15 @ Kilmarnock L 0-2 1729 1672 41.5% 22.3% 36.2% -17.3 30
2005-01-16 Celtic L 0-1 1717 2008 13.2% 18.9% 67.9% -3.3 36
2005-01-16 @ Aberdeen W 1-0 2008 1717 67.9% 18.9% 13.2% +3.3 56
2005-01-22 Dundee United D 1-1 1670 1637 48.8% 22.0% 29.2% -0.9 21
2005-01-22 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-1 1637 1670 29.2% 22.0% 48.8% +0.9 17
2005-01-22 Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1624 1798 22.3% 21.2% 56.5% +1.7 20
2005-01-22 @ Dundee D 1-1 1798 1624 56.5% 21.2% 22.3% -1.7 32
2005-01-22 Inverness CT L 1-4 1626 1636 42.8% 22.3% 34.9% -21.8 16
2005-01-22 @ Livingston W 4-1 1636 1626 34.9% 22.3% 42.8% +21.8 22
2005-01-22 Kilmarnock W 3-0 1771 1689 54.8% 21.5% 23.8% +15.9 43
2005-01-22 @ Hibernian L 0-3 1689 1771 23.8% 21.5% 54.8% -15.9 29
2005-01-22 Motherwell W 2-0 2011 1711 74.5% 16.6% 8.9% +4.1 59
2005-01-22 @ Celtic L 0-2 1711 2011 8.9% 16.6% 74.5% -4.1 30
2005-01-23 Rangers L 1-2 1714 1990 14.1% 19.2% 66.7% -3.3 36
2005-01-23 @ Aberdeen W 2-1 1990 1714 66.7% 19.2% 14.1% +3.3 56
2005-01-25 Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1604 1796 20.5% 20.9% 58.5% -4.8 16
2005-01-25 @ Livingston W 2-1 1796 1604 58.5% 20.9% 20.5% +4.8 35
2005-01-29 Aberdeen W 1-0 1801 1710 55.7% 21.3% 22.9% +5.6 38
2005-01-29 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-1 1710 1801 22.9% 21.3% 55.7% -5.6 36
2005-01-29 Dundee D 2-2 1638 1626 45.9% 22.2% 31.9% -0.5 18
2005-01-29 @ Dundee United D 2-2 1626 1638 31.9% 22.2% 45.9% +0.5 21
2005-01-29 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-0 1658 1669 42.6% 22.3% 35.1% +15.2 25
2005-01-29 @ Inverness CT L 0-2 1669 1658 35.1% 22.3% 42.6% -15.2 21
2005-01-29 Livingston W 3-0 1993 1599 80.3% 14.0% 5.7% +3.7 59
2005-01-29 @ Rangers L 0-3 1599 1993 5.7% 14.0% 80.3% -3.7 16
2005-01-30 Celtic L 0-1 1673 2015 10.4% 17.5% 72.0% -2.6 29
2005-01-30 @ Kilmarnock W 1-0 2015 1673 72.0% 17.5% 10.4% +2.6 62
2005-02-12 Aberdeen W 2-1 1654 1705 37.1% 22.3% 40.6% +8.5 24
2005-02-12 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-2 1705 1654 40.6% 22.3% 37.1% -8.5 36
2005-02-12 Dundee United L 0-2 1595 1637 38.4% 22.3% 39.3% -16.3 16
2005-02-12 @ Livingston W 2-0 1637 1595 39.3% 22.3% 38.4% +16.3 21
2005-02-12 Hibernian W 3-0 1997 1787 67.6% 19.0% 13.4% +9.2 62
2005-02-12 @ Rangers L 0-3 1787 1997 13.4% 19.0% 67.6% -9.2 43
2005-02-12 Kilmarnock W 3-0 1807 1670 60.7% 20.6% 18.7% +12.8 41
2005-02-12 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-3 1670 1807 18.7% 20.6% 60.7% -12.8 29
2005-02-12 Motherwell W 2-1 1626 1707 33.0% 22.2% 44.8% +9.2 24
2005-02-12 @ Dundee L 1-2 1707 1626 44.8% 22.2% 33.0% -9.2 30
2005-02-15 Hibernian D 1-1 1698 1778 33.2% 22.2% 44.6% +0.5 31
2005-02-15 @ Motherwell D 1-1 1778 1698 44.6% 22.2% 33.2% -0.5 44
2005-02-19 Dundee W 4-0 1777 1635 61.3% 20.5% 18.3% +16.3 47
2005-02-19 @ Hibernian L 0-4 1635 1777 18.3% 20.5% 61.3% -16.3 24
2005-02-19 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-1 1658 1663 43.5% 22.3% 34.2% +7.4 32
2005-02-19 @ Kilmarnock L 1-2 1663 1658 34.2% 22.3% 43.5% -7.4 24
2005-02-19 Heart of Midlothian W 2-0 1699 1819 28.0% 21.9% 50.1% +20.3 34
2005-02-19 @ Motherwell L 0-2 1819 1699 50.1% 21.9% 28.0% -20.3 41
2005-02-19 Inverness CT D 1-1 1653 1673 41.6% 22.3% 36.1% -0.2 22
2005-02-19 @ Dundee United D 1-1 1673 1653 36.1% 22.3% 41.6% +0.2 26
2005-02-19 Livingston W 2-0 1696 1579 58.7% 20.9% 20.4% +9.5 39
2005-02-19 @ Aberdeen L 0-2 1579 1696 20.4% 20.9% 58.7% -9.5 16
2005-02-20 Rangers L 0-2 2018 2006 45.9% 22.2% 32.0% -18.8 62
2005-02-20 @ Celtic W 2-0 2006 2018 32.0% 22.2% 45.9% +18.8 65
2005-02-26 Kilmarnock W 2-1 2025 1665 78.4% 14.9% 6.7% +1.5 68
2005-02-26 @ Rangers L 1-2 1665 2025 6.7% 14.9% 78.4% -1.5 32
2005-03-02 Aberdeen L 1-2 1653 1706 36.8% 22.3% 40.9% -7.9 22
2005-03-02 @ Dundee United W 2-1 1706 1653 40.9% 22.3% 36.8% +7.9 42
2005-03-02 Dundee W 3-0 1999 1619 79.5% 14.4% 6.1% +4.0 65
2005-03-02 @ Celtic L 0-3 1619 1999 6.1% 14.4% 79.5% -3.9 24
2005-03-02 Hibernian W 3-0 1673 1793 28.1% 21.9% 50.0% +29.4 29
2005-03-02 @ Inverness CT L 0-3 1793 1673 50.0% 21.9% 28.1% -29.4 47
2005-03-02 Kilmarnock W 3-1 1570 1663 31.3% 22.1% 46.6% +16.5 19
2005-03-02 @ Livingston L 1-3 1663 1570 46.6% 22.1% 31.3% -16.5 32
2005-03-02 Motherwell D 0-0 1655 1719 35.3% 22.3% 42.4% +0.4 25
2005-03-02 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-0 1719 1655 42.4% 22.3% 35.3% -0.4 35
2005-03-02 Rangers L 1-2 1799 2026 17.6% 20.3% 62.1% -4.2 41
2005-03-02 @ Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 2026 1799 62.1% 20.3% 17.6% +4.2 71
2005-03-05 Aberdeen L 0-1 1647 1714 34.9% 22.3% 42.9% -8.0 32
2005-03-05 @ Kilmarnock W 1-0 1714 1647 42.9% 22.3% 34.9% +8.0 45
2005-03-05 Dundee United W 2-0 1719 1645 53.7% 21.6% 24.7% +11.3 38
2005-03-05 @ Motherwell L 0-2 1645 1719 24.7% 21.6% 53.7% -11.3 22
2005-03-05 Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1656 1795 25.9% 21.7% 52.4% +1.3 26
2005-03-05 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-1 1795 1656 52.4% 21.7% 25.9% -1.3 42
2005-03-05 Inverness CT D 1-1 2030 1702 76.4% 15.8% 7.8% -3.5 72
2005-03-05 @ Rangers D 1-1 1702 2030 7.8% 15.8% 76.4% +3.5 30
2005-03-05 Livingston L 0-1 1615 1586 48.2% 22.1% 29.8% -10.4 24
2005-03-05 @ Dundee W 1-0 1586 1615 29.8% 22.1% 48.2% +10.4 22
2005-03-06 Celtic L 1-3 1764 2003 16.7% 20.1% 63.3% -6.8 47
2005-03-06 @ Hibernian W 3-1 2003 1764 63.3% 20.1% 16.7% +6.8 68
2005-03-12 Dundee United W 3-0 1639 1634 44.9% 22.2% 32.9% +20.9 35
2005-03-12 @ Kilmarnock L 0-3 1634 1639 32.9% 22.2% 44.9% -20.9 22
2005-03-12 Dunfermline Athletic W 6-0 2010 1657 78.0% 15.1% 6.9% +8.7 71
2005-03-12 @ Celtic L 0-6 1657 2010 6.9% 15.1% 78.0% -8.7 26
2005-03-12 Hibernian W 3-0 1722 1757 39.3% 22.3% 38.4% +23.7 48
2005-03-12 @ Aberdeen L 0-3 1757 1722 38.4% 22.3% 39.3% -23.7 47
2005-03-12 Inverness CT L 0-2 1794 1706 55.4% 21.4% 23.2% -22.2 42
2005-03-12 @ Heart of Midlothian W 2-0 1706 1794 23.2% 21.4% 55.4% +22.2 33
2005-03-12 Motherwell D 1-1 1596 1730 26.6% 21.8% 51.7% +1.2 23
2005-03-12 @ Livingston D 1-1 1730 1596 51.7% 21.8% 26.6% -1.2 39
2005-03-13 Rangers L 0-2 1605 2027 7.2% 15.3% 77.5% -3.3 24
2005-03-13 @ Dundee W 2-0 2027 1605 77.5% 15.3% 7.2% +3.2 75
2005-03-16 Celtic L 0-2 1728 2018 13.2% 18.9% 67.9% -6.2 33
2005-03-16 @ Inverness CT W 2-0 2018 1728 67.9% 18.9% 13.2% +6.3 74
2005-03-19 Celtic L 2-3 1613 2024 7.5% 15.6% 76.8% -1.6 22
2005-03-19 @ Dundee United W 3-2 2024 1613 76.8% 15.6% 7.5% +1.6 77
2005-03-19 Dundee D 1-1 1745 1601 61.5% 20.4% 18.1% -2.2 49
2005-03-19 @ Aberdeen D 1-1 1601 1745 18.1% 20.4% 61.5% +2.2 25
2005-03-19 Hibernian L 1-4 1648 1733 32.4% 22.2% 45.4% -17.4 26
2005-03-19 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 4-1 1733 1648 45.4% 22.2% 32.4% +17.4 50
2005-03-19 Livingston W 3-1 1772 1598 64.4% 19.8% 15.8% +6.5 45
2005-03-19 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-3 1598 1772 15.8% 19.8% 64.4% -6.5 23
2005-04-02 Aberdeen L 0-1 1722 1743 41.3% 22.3% 36.4% -9.2 33
2005-04-02 @ Inverness CT W 1-0 1743 1722 36.4% 22.3% 41.3% +9.1 52
2005-04-02 Dundee United W 3-2 1751 1611 61.0% 20.5% 18.4% +4.1 53
2005-04-02 @ Hibernian L 2-3 1611 1751 18.4% 20.5% 61.0% -4.1 22
2005-04-02 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-1 1591 1631 38.7% 22.3% 39.0% +0.0 24
2005-04-02 @ Livingston D 1-1 1631 1591 39.0% 22.3% 38.7% -0.0 27
2005-04-02 Heart of Midlothian L 0-2 2026 1778 70.7% 18.0% 11.2% -27.6 77
2005-04-02 @ Celtic W 2-0 1778 2026 11.2% 18.0% 70.7% +27.6 48
2005-04-02 Kilmarnock W 1-0 1604 1660 36.3% 22.3% 41.4% +9.2 28
2005-04-02 @ Dundee L 0-1 1660 1604 41.4% 22.3% 36.3% -9.2 35
2005-04-03 Rangers L 2-3 1729 2030 12.5% 18.6% 68.8% -2.8 39
2005-04-03 @ Motherwell W 3-2 2030 1729 68.8% 18.6% 12.5% +2.8 78
2005-04-09 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-1 1613 1631 41.8% 22.3% 35.9% +7.7 31
2005-04-09 @ Dundee L 1-2 1631 1613 35.9% 22.3% 41.8% -7.7 27
2005-04-09 Inverness CT L 0-1 1651 1713 35.5% 22.3% 42.2% -8.1 35
2005-04-09 @ Kilmarnock W 1-0 1713 1651 42.2% 22.3% 35.5% +8.1 36
2005-04-09 Motherwell L 1-3 1752 1726 47.8% 22.1% 30.1% -16.9 52
2005-04-09 @ Aberdeen W 3-1 1726 1752 30.1% 22.1% 47.8% +16.9 42
2005-04-12 Dundee United L 0-1 2033 1607 82.0% 13.1% 4.9% -16.3 78
2005-04-12 @ Rangers W 1-0 1607 2033 4.9% 13.1% 82.0% +16.3 25
2005-04-12 Motherwell W 1-0 1721 1743 41.2% 22.3% 36.5% +8.3 39
2005-04-12 @ Inverness CT L 0-1 1743 1721 36.5% 22.3% 41.2% -8.3 42
2005-04-13 Celtic L 0-4 1591 1999 7.7% 15.8% 76.6% -6.7 24
2005-04-13 @ Livingston W 4-0 1999 1591 76.6% 15.8% 7.7% +6.7 80
2005-04-13 Hibernian L 1-2 1806 1755 50.9% 21.9% 27.2% -10.3 48
2005-04-13 @ Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 1755 1806 27.2% 21.9% 50.9% +10.3 56
2005-04-16 Aberdeen W 3-2 2005 1735 72.4% 17.4% 10.2% +2.3 83
2005-04-16 @ Celtic L 2-3 1735 2005 10.2% 17.4% 72.4% -2.3 52
2005-04-16 Dundee W 3-2 1729 1621 57.8% 21.1% 21.2% +4.7 42
2005-04-16 @ Inverness CT L 2-3 1621 1729 21.2% 21.1% 57.8% -4.7 31
2005-04-16 Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 1624 1795 22.5% 21.3% 56.2% +11.2 28
2005-04-16 @ Dundee United L 1-2 1795 1624 56.2% 21.3% 22.5% -11.2 48
2005-04-16 Kilmarnock D 1-1 1734 1643 55.9% 21.3% 22.8% -1.6 43
2005-04-16 @ Motherwell D 1-1 1643 1734 22.8% 21.3% 55.9% +1.6 36
2005-04-16 Livingston L 0-3 1765 1585 65.0% 19.7% 15.3% -37.2 56
2005-04-16 @ Hibernian W 3-0 1585 1765 15.3% 19.7% 65.0% +37.2 27
2005-04-17 Rangers L 0-1 1623 2016 8.2% 16.1% 75.7% -2.0 27
2005-04-17 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-0 2016 1623 75.7% 16.1% 8.2% +2.0 81

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2005-04-23 Aberdeen L 0-1 1733 1733 44.2% 22.2% 33.6% -9.7 0
2005-04-23 @ Motherwell W 1-0 1733 1733 33.6% 22.2% 44.2% +9.7 3
2005-04-23 Dundee W 1-0 1644 1616 48.1% 22.1% 29.9% +7.1 3
2005-04-23 @ Kilmarnock L 0-1 1616 1644 29.9% 22.1% 48.1% -7.1 0
2005-04-23 Heart of Midlothian D 2-2 1728 1784 36.4% 22.3% 41.3% +0.2 1
2005-04-23 @ Hibernian D 2-2 1784 1728 41.3% 22.3% 36.4% -0.2 1
2005-04-23 Inverness CT D 0-0 1621 1734 28.9% 22.0% 49.1% +1.1 1
2005-04-23 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-0 1734 1621 49.1% 22.0% 28.9% -1.1 1
2005-04-23 Livingston D 1-1 1635 1622 46.0% 22.2% 31.8% -0.7 1
2005-04-23 @ Dundee United D 1-1 1622 1635 31.8% 22.2% 46.0% +0.7 1
2005-04-24 Celtic L 1-2 2018 2007 45.8% 22.2% 32.1% -9.4 0
2005-04-24 @ Rangers W 2-1 2007 2018 32.1% 22.2% 45.8% +9.4 3
2005-04-30 Dundee United L 1-2 1609 1634 40.7% 22.3% 37.0% -8.5 0
2005-04-30 @ Dundee W 2-1 1634 1609 37.0% 22.3% 40.7% +8.5 4
2005-04-30 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-0 1622 1622 44.3% 22.2% 33.5% +14.6 4
2005-04-30 @ Livingston L 0-2 1622 1622 33.5% 22.2% 44.3% -14.6 1
2005-04-30 Hibernian L 1-3 2017 1728 73.8% 16.9% 9.3% -24.7 3
2005-04-30 @ Celtic W 3-1 1728 2017 9.3% 16.9% 73.8% +24.7 4
2005-04-30 Kilmarnock L 1-2 1733 1651 54.7% 21.5% 23.8% -11.0 1
2005-04-30 @ Inverness CT W 2-1 1651 1733 23.8% 21.5% 54.7% +11.0 6
2005-04-30 Motherwell D 0-0 1784 1723 52.2% 21.7% 26.1% -1.4 2
2005-04-30 @ Heart of Midlothian D 0-0 1723 1784 26.1% 21.7% 52.2% +1.4 1
2005-05-01 Rangers L 1-3 1743 2009 14.7% 19.4% 65.8% -6.1 3
2005-05-01 @ Aberdeen W 3-1 2009 1743 65.8% 19.4% 14.7% +6.1 3
2005-05-07 Dundee W 5-0 1607 1600 45.2% 22.2% 32.6% +33.4 4
2005-05-07 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-5 1600 1607 32.6% 22.2% 45.2% -33.4 0
2005-05-07 Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 2015 1783 69.5% 18.4% 12.1% +2.8 6
2005-05-07 @ Rangers L 1-2 1783 2015 12.1% 18.4% 69.5% -2.8 2
2005-05-07 Hibernian D 2-2 1725 1753 40.3% 22.3% 37.4% -0.1 2
2005-05-07 @ Motherwell D 2-2 1753 1725 37.4% 22.3% 40.3% +0.1 5
2005-05-07 Kilmarnock D 1-1 1643 1662 41.5% 22.3% 36.2% -0.2 5
2005-05-07 @ Dundee United D 1-1 1662 1643 36.2% 22.3% 41.5% +0.2 7
2005-05-07 Livingston L 0-1 1722 1637 55.1% 21.4% 23.5% -11.7 1
2005-05-07 @ Inverness CT W 1-0 1637 1722 23.5% 21.4% 55.1% +11.7 7
2005-05-08 Aberdeen W 2-0 1992 1737 71.3% 17.8% 10.9% +5.1 6
2005-05-08 @ Celtic L 0-2 1737 1992 10.9% 17.8% 71.3% -5.1 3
2005-05-14 Aberdeen L 1-2 1753 1732 47.1% 22.1% 30.8% -9.6 5
2005-05-14 @ Hibernian W 2-1 1732 1753 30.8% 22.1% 47.1% +9.6 6
2005-05-14 Inverness CT D 1-1 1567 1710 25.4% 21.7% 52.9% +1.3 1
2005-05-14 @ Dundee D 1-1 1710 1567 52.9% 21.7% 25.4% -1.3 2
2005-05-14 Livingston W 2-0 1662 1649 46.1% 22.2% 31.7% +14.0 10
2005-05-14 @ Kilmarnock L 0-2 1649 1662 31.7% 22.2% 46.1% -14.0 7
2005-05-14 Motherwell W 4-1 2018 1724 74.1% 16.8% 9.1% +5.2 9
2005-05-14 @ Rangers L 1-4 1724 2018 9.1% 16.8% 74.1% -5.2 2
2005-05-15 Celtic L 1-2 1780 1997 18.4% 20.5% 61.2% -4.3 2
2005-05-15 @ Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 1997 1780 61.2% 20.5% 18.4% +4.3 9
2005-05-15 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-1 1642 1641 44.5% 22.2% 33.3% -9.7 5
2005-05-15 @ Dundee United W 1-0 1641 1642 33.3% 22.2% 44.5% +9.7 7
2005-05-21 Dundee D 1-1 1635 1568 52.9% 21.7% 25.4% -1.3 8
2005-05-21 @ Livingston D 1-1 1568 1635 25.4% 21.7% 52.9% +1.3 2
2005-05-21 Dundee United L 0-1 1709 1633 54.0% 21.6% 24.4% -11.5 2
2005-05-21 @ Inverness CT W 1-0 1633 1709 24.4% 21.6% 54.0% +11.5 8
2005-05-21 Dunfermline Athletic W 4-0 1676 1651 47.7% 22.1% 30.2% +25.5 13
2005-05-21 @ Kilmarnock L 0-4 1651 1676 30.2% 22.1% 47.7% -25.5 7
2005-05-22 Celtic W 2-1 1719 2002 13.7% 19.1% 67.2% +13.2 5
2005-05-22 @ Motherwell L 1-2 2002 1719 67.2% 19.1% 13.7% -13.2 9
2005-05-22 Heart of Midlothian W 2-0 1741 1775 39.5% 22.3% 38.2% +16.2 9
2005-05-22 @ Aberdeen L 0-2 1775 1741 38.2% 22.3% 39.5% -16.2 2
2005-05-22 Rangers L 0-1 1743 2023 13.8% 19.1% 67.0% -3.5 5
2005-05-22 @ Hibernian W 1-0 2023 1743 67.0% 19.1% 13.8% +3.5 12

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2005-04-12 4.89% Dundee United 1607 1 @ Rangers 2033 0
2 2004-10-27 8.91% Aberdeen 1711 3 @ Celtic 2010 2
3 2005-04-30 9.33% Hibernian 1728 3 @ Celtic 2017 1
4 2005-04-02 11.25% Heart of Midlothian 1778 2 @ Celtic 2026 0
5 2005-05-22 13.68% @ Motherwell 1719 2 Celtic 2002 1
6 2005-04-16 15.31% Livingston 1585 3 @ Hibernian 1765 0
7 2004-11-20 22.48% Motherwell 1710 1 @ Heart of Midlothian 1805 0
8 2005-04-16 22.49% @ Dundee United 1624 2 Heart of Midlothian 1795 1
9 2004-12-18 22.93% Inverness CT 1657 2 @ Motherwell 1747 1
10 2005-03-12 23.20% Inverness CT 1706 2 @ Heart of Midlothian 1794 0
11 2005-05-07 23.50% Livingston 1637 1 @ Inverness CT 1722 0
12 2005-04-30 23.84% Kilmarnock 1651 2 @ Inverness CT 1733 1
13 2005-05-21 24.41% Dundee United 1633 1 @ Inverness CT 1709 0
14 2004-11-27 25.40% Livingston 1624 3 @ Kilmarnock 1690 1
15 2005-04-13 27.22% Hibernian 1755 2 @ Heart of Midlothian 1806 1
16 2004-08-28 27.36% @ Motherwell 1690 2 Heart of Midlothian 1816 0
17 2005-02-19 28.00% @ Motherwell 1699 2 Heart of Midlothian 1819 0
18 2005-03-02 28.05% @ Inverness CT 1673 3 Hibernian 1793 0
19 2004-08-21 28.22% Aberdeen 1662 1 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1704 0
20 2004-09-19 29.09% @ Dunfermline Athletic 1685 1 Heart of Midlothian 1797 0
21 2004-08-21 29.78% Motherwell 1680 2 @ Dundee 1709 1
22 2005-03-05 29.79% Livingston 1586 1 @ Dundee 1615 0
23 2004-12-18 29.86% @ Dundee 1623 1 Aberdeen 1728 0
24 2005-04-09 30.10% Motherwell 1726 3 @ Aberdeen 1752 1
25 2004-10-23 30.41% Dunfermline Athletic 1673 2 @ Dundee 1697 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2005-04-16 37.22 Livingston 3 1585 15.31% @ Hibernian 0 1765 65.04% 19.65%
2 2005-05-07 33.44 @ Dunfermline Athletic 5 1607 45.23% Dundee 0 1600 32.57% 22.20%
3 2005-03-02 29.41 @ Inverness CT 3 1673 28.05% Hibernian 0 1793 50.03% 21.92%
4 2005-04-02 27.59 Heart of Midlothian 2 1778 11.25% @ Celtic 0 2026 70.74% 18.01%
5 2005-05-21 25.49 @ Kilmarnock 4 1676 47.74% Dunfermline Athletic 0 1651 30.19% 22.08%
6 2005-04-30 24.72 Hibernian 3 1728 9.33% @ Celtic 1 2017 73.75% 16.92%
7 2005-03-12 23.68 @ Aberdeen 3 1722 39.27% Hibernian 0 1757 38.41% 22.32%
8 2004-12-11 23.53 @ Dundee United 3 1633 39.58% Kilmarnock 0 1666 38.10% 22.32%
9 2005-03-12 22.17 Inverness CT 2 1706 23.20% @ Heart of Midlothian 0 1794 55.41% 21.39%
10 2005-01-22 21.77 Inverness CT 4 1636 34.88% @ Livingston 1 1626 42.84% 22.28%
11 2005-03-12 20.91 @ Kilmarnock 3 1639 44.94% Dundee United 0 1634 32.85% 22.21%
12 2004-08-28 20.51 @ Motherwell 2 1690 27.36% Heart of Midlothian 0 1816 50.77% 21.86%
13 2005-02-19 20.27 @ Motherwell 2 1699 28.00% Heart of Midlothian 0 1819 50.09% 21.92%
14 2004-08-07 20.24 @ Livingston 3 1699 46.29% Inverness CT 0 1684 31.56% 22.15%
15 2004-11-13 20.00 @ Motherwell 3 1690 46.77% Dundee 0 1672 31.11% 22.13%
16 2004-11-20 19.68 @ Dunfermline Athletic 4 1680 39.99% Kilmarnock 1 1710 37.69% 22.32%
17 2004-11-20 19.29 Hibernian 4 1705 40.94% @ Dundee 1 1652 36.74% 22.31%
18 2005-01-03 19.04 Kilmarnock 2 1652 31.33% @ Inverness CT 0 1669 46.53% 22.14%
19 2005-02-20 18.80 Rangers 2 2006 31.97% @ Celtic 0 2018 45.86% 22.17%
20 2004-11-27 18.43 Livingston 3 1624 25.40% @ Kilmarnock 1 1690 52.93% 21.67%
21 2004-09-11 18.36 Kilmarnock 2 1685 33.23% @ Livingston 0 1687 44.55% 22.23%
22 2005-03-19 17.44 Hibernian 4 1733 45.41% @ Dunfermline Athletic 1 1648 32.40% 22.19%
23 2004-12-27 17.39 Hibernian 4 1741 45.52% @ Dundee United 1 1655 32.29% 22.19%
24 2004-08-15 17.37 @ Inverness CT 2 1664 36.07% Dunfermline Athletic 0 1722 41.62% 22.30%
25 2005-01-15 17.34 @ Kilmarnock 2 1672 36.17% Motherwell 0 1729 41.52% 22.30%