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2003-04 Scottish Premier League Season

228 games

Final

Champion

Celtic

98 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Partick Thistle

15.03 points above expected

26 points · 41.03 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Celtic

93.67 points below expected

98 points · 191.67 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Celtic 33 29 3 1 90 99 20 +79 78.92 +11.08
2 Rangers 33 23 5 5 74 66 26 +40 73.72 +0.28
3 Heart of Midlothian 33 15 10 8 55 47 36 +11 53.89 +1.11
4 Dunfermline Athletic 33 12 11 10 47 35 43 -8 42.98 +4.02
5 Motherwell 33 12 9 12 45 39 37 +2 37.37 +7.63
6 Dundee United 33 11 9 13 42 39 51 -12 34.22 +7.78
7 Hibernian 33 9 11 13 38 37 52 -15 40.56 -2.56
8 Livingston 33 8 12 13 36 38 48 -10 39.87 -3.87
9 Dundee 33 8 10 15 34 41 55 -14 42.19 -8.19
10 Aberdeen 33 9 7 17 34 38 52 -14 38.65 -4.65
11 Kilmarnock 33 9 5 19 32 39 68 -29 39.98 -7.98
12 Partick Thistle 33 4 6 23 18 31 61 -30 28.54 -10.54
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Celtic 38 31 5 2 98 105 25 +80 191.67 -93.67
2 Rangers 38 25 6 7 81 76 33 +43 157.83 -76.83
3 Heart of Midlothian 38 19 11 8 68 56 40 +16 116.73 -48.73
4 Dunfermline Athletic 38 14 11 13 53 45 52 -7 98.74 -45.74
5 Dundee United 38 13 10 15 49 47 60 -13 91.18 -42.18
6 Motherwell 38 12 10 16 46 42 49 -7 91.78 -45.78
7 Dundee 38 12 10 16 46 48 57 -9 79.13 -33.13
8 Hibernian 38 11 11 16 44 41 60 -19 81.85 -37.85
9 Livingston 38 10 13 15 43 48 57 -9 77.48 -34.48
10 Kilmarnock 38 12 6 20 42 51 74 -23 72.30 -30.30
11 Aberdeen 38 9 7 22 34 39 63 -24 73.49 -39.49
12 Partick Thistle 38 6 8 24 26 39 67 -28 41.03 -15.03

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Celtic 2112 98 78.92 +19.08 98.5% 56 69 75 79 83 88 99
Rangers 1998 81 73.72 +7.28 53.9% 50 63 70 74 78 84 97
Heart of Midlothian 1863 68 53.89 +14.11 58.6% 26 42 49 54 59 65 82
Dunfermline Athletic 1745 53 42.98 +10.02 74.1% 16 32 38 43 48 55 76
Dundee 1720 46 42.19 +3.81 13.5% 18 31 37 42 47 54 69
Livingston 1705 43 39.87 +3.13 32.1% 13 28 35 40 45 52 72
Dundee United 1704 49 34.22 +14.78 88.1% 10 23 30 34 39 46 61
Motherwell 1698 46 37.37 +8.63 87.4% 10 26 33 37 42 49 62
Hibernian 1690 44 40.56 +3.44 38.8% 15 29 36 41 45 52 69
Kilmarnock 1688 42 39.98 +2.02 14.3% 17 29 35 40 45 52 68
Aberdeen 1636 34 38.65 -4.65 28.0% 7 27 34 39 43 50 66
Partick Thistle 1614 26 28.54 -2.54 5.6% 4 18 24 28 33 40 55

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ABE CEL DUN DU DA HOM HIB KIL LIV MOT PT RAN
Aberdeen —
1-0-2
0.94
0-2-2
5.03
1-0-2
4.61
1-1-1
3.84
0-0-3
2.66
2-1-1
5.09
2-0-2
5.02
0-1-3
5.48
0-0-3
4.33
2-1-1
6.86
0-1-2
1.46
Celtic
2-0-1
7.66
 —
3-0-0
7.20
4-0-0
10.32
2-1-1
9.71
2-2-0
9.10
3-0-0
7.32
3-0-0
7.53
3-0-0
7.45
2-2-0
10.04
3-0-0
7.69
4-0-0
6.59
Dundee
2-2-0
5.97
0-0-3
1.32
 —
1-2-0
4.53
0-0-3
4.51
0-1-2
2.82
0-3-1
5.56
1-1-2
5.70
3-1-0
6.01
1-0-2
4.51
4-0-0
7.13
0-0-3
1.43
Dundee United
2-0-1
3.65
0-0-4
1.18
0-2-1
3.74
 —
2-1-1
4.53
1-0-3
3.23
0-2-1
3.57
2-1-0
3.77
2-1-0
3.33
2-0-2
5.28
1-2-0
4.52
1-1-2
1.77
Dunfermline Athletic
1-1-1
4.42
1-1-2
1.66
3-0-0
3.75
1-1-2
6.49
 —
1-1-2
4.12
1-2-0
4.65
1-1-1
4.79
0-3-0
4.16
2-1-1
5.85
2-0-1
5.84
1-0-3
2.18
Heart of Midlothian
3-0-0
5.64
0-2-2
2.16
2-1-0
5.48
3-0-1
7.88
2-1-1
6.92
 —
1-1-1
5.11
2-1-0
5.12
2-1-0
5.59
1-3-0
7.64
2-0-1
6.27
1-1-2
3.07
Hibernian
1-1-2
5.91
0-0-3
1.21
1-3-0
5.44
1-2-0
4.69
0-2-1
3.60
1-1-1
3.17
 —
3-0-1
5.80
1-0-3
5.45
1-1-1
4.54
2-1-1
6.97
0-0-3
1.40
Kilmarnock
2-0-2
5.99
0-0-3
1.05
2-1-1
5.31
0-1-2
4.49
1-1-1
3.47
0-1-2
3.15
1-0-3
5.20
 —
2-1-1
5.54
1-0-2
4.36
3-1-0
6.82
0-0-3
1.42
Livingston
3-1-0
5.54
0-0-3
1.11
0-1-3
5.00
0-1-2
4.93
0-3-0
4.09
0-1-2
2.71
3-0-1
5.56
1-1-2
5.46
 —
2-1-0
4.58
1-2-1
6.89
0-2-1
1.57
Motherwell
3-0-0
3.92
0-2-2
1.40
2-0-1
3.74
2-0-2
5.73
1-1-2
5.16
0-3-1
3.44
1-1-1
3.73
2-0-1
3.90
0-1-2
3.69
 —
1-1-1
5.13
0-1-3
1.91
Partick Thistle
1-1-2
4.18
0-0-3
0.93
0-0-4
3.92
0-2-1
3.74
1-0-2
2.47
1-0-2
2.10
1-1-2
4.07
0-1-3
4.21
1-2-1
4.16
1-1-1
3.14
 —
0-0-3
0.91
Rangers
2-1-0
7.02
0-0-4
4.44
3-0-0
7.05
2-1-1
9.57
3-0-1
9.07
2-1-1
8.05
3-0-0
7.09
3-0-0
7.07
1-2-0
6.87
3-1-0
9.40
3-0-0
7.70
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.87 +9.8
Allowed 0.85 -13.2
Differential 0.95 +6.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.82%8.33%7.02%3.07%1.75%1.10%26.10%
18.33%12.72%7.24%3.51%1.54%0.88%34.21%
27.02%7.24%5.26%2.41%0.66%0.44%23.03%
33.07%3.51%2.41%0.88%—0.22%10.09%
41.75%1.54%0.66%———3.95%
5+1.10%0.88%0.44%0.22%——2.63%
Total26.10%34.21%23.03%10.09%3.95%2.63%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.40 1.40 +0.00
SD 1.24 1.24 1.90
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 228

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.63%13.16%13.16%7.89%5.26%—42.11%
12.63%10.53%7.89%5.26%——26.32%
22.63%5.26%5.26%5.26%——18.42%
35.26%7.89%————13.16%
4———————
5+———————
Total13.16%36.84%26.32%18.42%5.26%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.66 -0.63
SD 1.08 1.10 1.79
CV 1.05 0.66 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.63%—————2.63%
113.16%7.89%5.26%———26.32%
25.26%15.79%2.63%———23.68%
35.26%5.26%2.63%———13.16%
45.26%5.26%————10.53%
5+13.16%10.53%————23.68%
Total44.74%44.74%10.53%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.76 0.66 +2.11
SD 1.65 0.67 1.87
CV 0.60 1.02 —
Max 6 2 +6
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.53%7.89%—2.63%—21.05%
17.89%15.79%7.89%5.26%——36.84%
27.89%13.16%10.53%2.63%2.63%—36.84%
32.63%————2.63%5.26%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.42%39.47%26.32%7.89%5.26%2.63%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.26 1.50 -0.24
SD 0.86 1.20 1.46
CV 0.68 0.80 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.89%—7.89%5.26%—2.63%23.68%
110.53%10.53%13.16%7.89%—2.63%44.74%
210.53%2.63%5.26%———18.42%
3——7.89%2.63%——10.53%
4—2.63%————2.63%
5+———————
Total28.95%15.79%34.21%15.79%—5.26%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.24 1.58 -0.34
SD 1.02 1.35 1.77
CV 0.83 0.85 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.16%7.89%2.63%—2.63%2.63%28.95%
17.89%7.89%2.63%—7.89%—26.32%
210.53%15.79%7.89%7.89%——42.11%
32.63%—————2.63%
4———————
5+———————
Total34.21%31.58%13.16%7.89%10.53%2.63%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.37 -0.18
SD 0.90 1.44 1.74
CV 0.76 1.05 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.26%7.89%——2.63%2.63%18.42%
110.53%18.42%7.89%———36.84%
213.16%7.89%5.26%———26.32%
32.63%7.89%5.26%———15.79%
4—2.63%————2.63%
5+———————
Total31.58%44.74%18.42%—2.63%2.63%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.05 +0.42
SD 1.06 1.09 1.64
CV 0.72 1.03 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.26%7.89%10.53%2.63%2.63%2.63%31.58%
113.16%15.79%7.89%2.63%2.63%—42.11%
22.63%2.63%5.26%——2.63%13.16%
32.63%5.26%2.63%2.63%——13.16%
4———————
5+———————
Total23.68%31.58%26.32%7.89%5.26%5.26%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 1.58 -0.50
SD 1.00 1.45 1.83
CV 0.92 0.92 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.26%13.16%5.26%2.63%2.63%28.95%
1—13.16%7.89%7.89%2.63%2.63%34.21%
25.26%10.53%2.63%2.63%——21.05%
3—2.63%2.63%———5.26%
42.63%—7.89%———10.53%
5+———————
Total7.89%31.58%34.21%15.79%5.26%5.26%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.34 1.95 -0.61
SD 1.26 1.23 2.03
CV 0.94 0.63 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.53%5.26%7.89%———23.68%
15.26%18.42%5.26%5.26%—5.26%39.47%
27.89%2.63%5.26%5.26%2.63%2.63%26.32%
35.26%2.63%————7.89%
4—2.63%————2.63%
5+———————
Total28.95%31.58%18.42%10.53%2.63%7.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.26 1.50 -0.24
SD 1.00 1.48 1.76
CV 0.80 0.99 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.63%21.05%5.26%7.89%2.63%—39.47%
110.53%15.79%—2.63%——28.95%
27.89%2.63%5.26%2.63%——18.42%
35.26%2.63%—2.63%——10.53%
4———————
5+———2.63%——2.63%
Total26.32%42.11%10.53%18.42%2.63%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.29 -0.18
SD 1.20 1.14 1.69
CV 1.09 0.88 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.26%13.16%10.53%5.26%——34.21%
15.26%7.89%18.42%5.26%5.26%—42.11%
22.63%2.63%7.89%2.63%2.63%—18.42%
3———————
4—2.63%————2.63%
5+——2.63%———2.63%
Total13.16%26.32%39.47%13.16%7.89%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.76 -0.74
SD 1.10 1.10 1.48
CV 1.07 0.62 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.63%7.89%5.26%2.63%——18.42%
113.16%10.53%2.63%———26.32%
27.89%5.26%————13.16%
35.26%7.89%7.89%2.63%——23.68%
413.16%2.63%————15.79%
5+——2.63%———2.63%
Total42.11%34.21%18.42%5.26%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 0.87 +1.13
SD 1.47 0.91 1.82
CV 0.74 1.04 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 38

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Partick Thistle 26 41.03 -15.03
2 Kilmarnock 42 72.30 -30.30
3 Dundee 46 79.13 -33.13
4 Livingston 43 77.48 -34.48
5 Hibernian 44 81.85 -37.85

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Celtic 98 191.67 -93.67
2 Rangers 81 157.83 -76.83
3 Heart of Midlothian 68 116.73 -48.73
4 Motherwell 46 91.78 -45.78
5 Dunfermline Athletic 53 98.74 -45.74

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Celtic 25 Aug 16 – Feb 29 1 in 2,565
2 Dunfermline Athletic 3 Dec 6 – Dec 21 1 in 96
3 Dundee United 3 Mar 20 – Mar 27 1 in 17
4 Partick Thistle 2 May 1 – May 5 1 in 17
5 Kilmarnock 3 Nov 22 – Dec 6 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Partick Thistle 10 Sep 13 – Nov 29 1 in 458
2 Kilmarnock 4 Dec 13 – Jan 3 1 in 66
3 Aberdeen 5 Oct 18 – Nov 22 1 in 43
4 Motherwell 4 Nov 29 – Dec 21 1 in 33
5 Heart of Midlothian 2 Nov 30 – Dec 6 1 in 25

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Motherwell 7 Sep 27 – Nov 25 1 in 99
2 Heart of Midlothian 11 Jan 24 – Apr 7 1 in 82
3 Dunfermline Athletic 6 Nov 22 – Dec 21 1 in 37
4 Celtic 32 Aug 9 – Apr 18 1 in 36
5 Aberdeen 6 Nov 29 – Jan 3 1 in 24

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Celtic 3 Apr 21 – May 2 1 in 105
2 Dundee 10 Oct 26 – Jan 6 1 in 78
3 Partick Thistle 14 Aug 9 – Nov 29 1 in 48
4 Hibernian 8 Jan 31 – Mar 27 1 in 24
5 Kilmarnock 8 Dec 13 – Feb 11 1 in 23

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team123456789101112
Celtic73.11%26.62%0.27%—————————
Rangers26.77%71.33%1.84%0.06%————————
Heart of Midlothian0.12%1.83%64.85%16.94%7.64%4.15%2.09%1.12%0.76%0.26%0.20%0.04%
Dunfermline Athletic—0.05%8.08%18.51%16.54%13.94%11.85%10.19%8.71%6.28%4.16%1.69%
Dundee United——0.77%2.88%4.59%6.12%8.12%9.88%13.39%16.69%21.24%16.32%
Motherwell—0.01%2.18%6.48%9.14%9.98%11.82%12.94%13.18%14.05%12.72%7.50%
Dundee—0.07%6.74%14.87%15.66%14.38%12.80%11.11%9.35%7.33%5.40%2.29%
Hibernian—0.02%4.82%11.56%12.90%12.86%13.37%11.57%11.03%10.11%7.99%3.77%
Livingston—0.02%3.85%10.86%11.60%13.12%12.30%12.43%12.25%10.24%8.91%4.42%
Kilmarnock—0.02%3.78%9.64%11.33%12.15%12.71%13.19%11.85%11.34%9.16%4.83%
Aberdeen—0.03%2.73%7.87%9.75%11.67%12.20%13.07%12.88%13.12%10.73%5.95%
Partick Thistle——0.09%0.33%0.85%1.63%2.74%4.50%6.60%10.58%19.49%53.19%
Team123456789101112
Celtic100.00%———————————
Rangers—100.00%——————————
Heart of Midlothian——98.93%1.07%————————
Dunfermline Athletic——0.95%69.56%23.35%6.14%——————
Dundee United——0.12%22.80%53.83%23.25%——————
Motherwell———6.57%22.82%70.61%——————
Dundee——————51.25%26.78%13.74%6.38%1.85%—
Hibernian——————30.24%33.16%20.00%11.42%5.18%—
Livingston——————9.93%20.20%28.24%24.43%17.20%—
Kilmarnock——————5.43%11.62%21.44%30.69%30.82%—
Aberdeen——————3.15%8.24%16.58%27.08%44.95%—
Partick Thistle———————————100.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Points Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+14.04%
Slight Edge
45.18%23.68%31.14%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 49.09 Elo pts.
197 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.42 goals
Neutral
-2+0.25+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.6
One-Team Race
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
73%
Celtic, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.45/gm
Comfortable
00.210.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.46 * Some Luck: 5.46 to 8.19 * Lucky: 8.19 to 10.92 * Wild Swing: 10.92 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.33 * Close: 1.33 to 2 * Off: 2 to 2.67 * Way Off: 2.67 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.71 points
Some Luck
06.8217
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.67
Close
01.674
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
98.55%
Celtic
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
5.62%
Partick Thistle
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
2.20
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
59%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 95%
96%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
60%
Very Frequent
0%57%100%
Blowouts
Expected
18%
Frequent
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.56
Highly Predictable
00.562
Matchup Imbalance
0.41
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.04
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.47
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Chalky
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
17%
As Expected
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.11 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.11 to 0.16 * Above Noise: 0.16 to 0.22 * Well Above Noise: 0.22 and up.
Probability calibration
0.76
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.02
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.066
Well Within Noise
00.1100.25

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff
Celtic 100% —
Rangers 100% —
Heart of Midlothian 99.95% 0.05%
Dunfermline Athletic 98.45% 1.55%
Dundee 97.44% 2.56%
Hibernian 96.76% 3.24%
Livingston 95.47% 4.53%
Kilmarnock 94.89% 5.11%
Aberdeen 94.42% 5.58%
Motherwell 93.82% 6.18%
Dundee United 85.81% 14.19%
Partick Thistle 42.99% 57.01%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff
Aberdeen 100% —
Celtic 100% —
Dundee 100% —
Dundee United 100% —
Dunfermline Athletic 100% —
Heart of Midlothian 100% —
Hibernian 100% —
Kilmarnock 100% —
Livingston 100% —
Motherwell 100% —
Rangers 100% —
Partick Thistle — 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2003-08-09 Aberdeen W 2-0 1801 1739 52.4% 23.9% 23.7% +9.7 3
2003-08-09 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-2 1739 1801 23.7% 23.9% 52.4% -9.7 0
2003-08-09 Celtic D 0-0 1703 2020 12.1% 19.1% 68.8% +2.8 1
2003-08-09 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-0 2020 1703 68.8% 19.1% 12.1% -2.8 1
2003-08-09 Dundee L 0-3 1666 1737 34.5% 25.1% 40.5% -19.3 0
2003-08-09 @ Motherwell W 3-0 1737 1666 40.5% 25.1% 34.5% +19.3 3
2003-08-09 Hibernian L 1-2 1654 1730 33.7% 25.1% 41.3% -6.5 0
2003-08-09 @ Dundee United W 2-1 1730 1654 41.3% 25.1% 33.7% +6.5 3
2003-08-09 Kilmarnock W 4-0 2001 1767 70.1% 18.5% 11.3% +8.8 3
2003-08-09 @ Rangers L 0-4 1767 2001 11.3% 18.5% 70.1% -8.8 0
2003-08-09 Livingston D 1-1 1664 1690 40.7% 25.1% 34.2% -0.3 1
2003-08-09 @ Partick Thistle D 1-1 1690 1664 34.2% 25.1% 40.7% +0.3 1
2003-08-16 Dundee United W 5-0 2017 1647 80.4% 13.4% 6.2% +5.4 4
2003-08-16 @ Celtic L 0-5 1647 2017 6.2% 13.4% 80.4% -5.5 0
2003-08-16 Motherwell W 1-0 1691 1647 50.1% 24.3% 25.7% +5.5 4
2003-08-16 @ Livingston L 0-1 1647 1691 25.7% 24.3% 50.1% -5.5 0
2003-08-16 Partick Thistle W 2-1 1758 1664 56.2% 23.2% 20.7% +4.3 3
2003-08-16 @ Kilmarnock L 1-2 1664 1758 20.7% 23.2% 56.2% -4.3 1
2003-08-16 Rangers L 2-3 1729 2010 14.1% 20.4% 65.4% -2.8 0
2003-08-16 @ Aberdeen W 3-2 2010 1729 65.4% 20.4% 14.1% +2.8 6
2003-08-17 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-2 1756 1706 50.9% 24.2% 24.9% -18.0 3
2003-08-17 @ Dundee W 2-0 1706 1756 24.9% 24.2% 50.9% +18.0 4
2003-08-17 Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 1737 1811 33.9% 25.1% 41.0% +8.0 6
2003-08-17 @ Hibernian L 0-1 1811 1737 41.0% 25.1% 33.9% -8.0 3
2003-08-23 Celtic L 1-2 1660 2022 9.9% 17.4% 72.7% -2.0 1
2003-08-23 @ Partick Thistle W 2-1 2022 1660 72.7% 17.4% 9.9% +2.0 7
2003-08-23 Dundee United W 3-0 1803 1642 63.3% 21.2% 15.5% +9.4 6
2003-08-23 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-3 1642 1803 15.5% 21.2% 63.3% -9.4 0
2003-08-23 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-2 1726 1724 44.7% 24.9% 30.5% -8.1 0
2003-08-23 @ Aberdeen W 2-1 1724 1726 30.5% 24.9% 44.7% +8.1 7
2003-08-23 Hibernian W 5-2 2012 1745 73.0% 17.2% 9.8% +4.2 9
2003-08-23 @ Rangers L 2-5 1745 2012 9.8% 17.2% 73.0% -4.2 6
2003-08-23 Kilmarnock W 2-1 1642 1763 28.0% 24.6% 47.4% +8.5 3
2003-08-23 @ Motherwell L 1-2 1763 1642 47.4% 24.6% 28.0% -8.5 3
2003-08-23 Livingston W 2-1 1738 1696 49.8% 24.3% 25.9% +5.3 6
2003-08-23 @ Dundee L 1-2 1696 1738 25.9% 24.3% 49.8% -5.3 4
2003-08-30 Aberdeen D 1-1 1741 1718 47.3% 24.6% 28.1% -0.8 7
2003-08-30 @ Hibernian D 1-1 1718 1741 28.1% 24.6% 47.3% +0.8 1
2003-08-30 Livingston W 5-1 2024 1691 78.0% 14.7% 7.3% +4.5 10
2003-08-30 @ Celtic L 1-5 1691 2024 7.3% 14.7% 78.0% -4.4 4
2003-08-30 Partick Thistle D 2-2 1650 1658 43.3% 24.9% 31.8% -0.3 4
2003-08-30 @ Motherwell D 2-2 1658 1650 31.8% 24.9% 43.3% +0.3 2
2003-08-31 Dundee D 1-1 1754 1743 45.8% 24.8% 29.4% -0.7 4
2003-08-31 @ Kilmarnock D 1-1 1743 1754 29.4% 24.8% 45.8% +0.7 7
2003-08-31 Heart of Midlothian L 0-1 1732 1812 33.1% 25.0% 41.9% -6.8 7
2003-08-31 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-0 1812 1732 41.9% 25.0% 33.1% +6.8 9
2003-08-31 Rangers L 1-3 1633 2017 9.0% 16.5% 74.4% -3.1 0
2003-08-31 @ Dundee United W 3-1 2017 1633 74.4% 16.5% 9.0% +3.1 12
2003-09-13 Celtic L 0-1 1744 2029 13.9% 20.3% 65.9% -3.1 7
2003-09-13 @ Dundee W 1-0 2029 1744 65.9% 20.3% 13.9% +3.1 13
2003-09-13 Dundee United D 0-0 1687 1629 51.7% 24.0% 24.2% -1.3 5
2003-09-13 @ Livingston D 0-0 1629 1687 24.2% 24.0% 51.7% +1.3 1
2003-09-13 Dunfermline Athletic W 4-0 2020 1725 75.1% 16.2% 8.7% +6.5 15
2003-09-13 @ Rangers L 0-4 1725 2020 8.7% 16.2% 75.1% -6.5 7
2003-09-13 Heart of Midlothian L 0-2 1753 1819 35.1% 25.1% 39.8% -13.4 4
2003-09-13 @ Kilmarnock W 2-0 1819 1753 39.8% 25.1% 35.1% +13.4 12
2003-09-13 Motherwell L 0-2 1740 1650 55.7% 23.3% 21.0% -19.5 7
2003-09-13 @ Hibernian W 2-0 1650 1740 21.0% 23.3% 55.7% +19.5 7
2003-09-13 Partick Thistle W 2-1 1719 1658 52.2% 23.9% 23.8% +4.9 4
2003-09-13 @ Aberdeen L 1-2 1658 1719 23.8% 23.9% 52.2% -4.9 2
2003-09-20 Aberdeen W 2-0 1741 1724 46.6% 24.7% 28.7% +11.5 10
2003-09-20 @ Dundee L 0-2 1724 1741 28.7% 24.7% 46.6% -11.5 4
2003-09-20 Dundee United L 0-2 1653 1631 47.3% 24.6% 28.0% -17.0 2
2003-09-20 @ Partick Thistle W 2-0 1631 1653 28.0% 24.6% 47.3% +17.0 4
2003-09-20 Hibernian D 0-0 1718 1720 44.1% 24.9% 31.0% -0.6 8
2003-09-20 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-0 1720 1718 31.0% 24.9% 44.1% +0.6 8
2003-09-20 Kilmarnock L 1-2 1685 1740 36.6% 25.1% 38.2% -6.9 5
2003-09-20 @ Livingston W 2-1 1740 1685 38.2% 25.1% 36.6% +7.0 7
2003-09-20 Motherwell W 3-0 2032 1669 80.0% 13.6% 6.4% +3.5 16
2003-09-20 @ Celtic L 0-3 1669 2032 6.4% 13.6% 80.0% -3.5 7
2003-09-21 Rangers L 0-4 1833 2026 20.6% 23.1% 56.3% -16.3 12
2003-09-21 @ Heart of Midlothian W 4-0 2026 1833 56.3% 23.1% 20.6% +16.3 18
2003-09-27 Celtic L 1-2 1721 2035 12.2% 19.2% 68.6% -2.5 8
2003-09-27 @ Hibernian W 2-1 2035 1721 68.6% 19.2% 12.2% +2.5 19
2003-09-27 Dundee W 3-1 2042 1752 74.8% 16.4% 8.9% +3.0 21
2003-09-27 @ Rangers L 1-3 1752 2042 8.9% 16.4% 74.8% -3.0 10
2003-09-27 Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1666 1816 24.7% 24.1% 51.2% +1.1 8
2003-09-27 @ Motherwell D 1-1 1816 1666 51.2% 24.1% 24.7% -1.1 13
2003-09-27 Kilmarnock D 1-1 1648 1747 30.7% 24.9% 44.5% +0.5 5
2003-09-27 @ Dundee United D 1-1 1747 1648 44.5% 24.9% 30.7% -0.5 8
2003-09-27 Livingston L 0-3 1712 1678 48.9% 24.4% 26.7% -25.3 4
2003-09-27 @ Aberdeen W 3-0 1678 1712 26.7% 24.4% 48.9% +25.3 8
2003-09-27 Partick Thistle W 2-1 1718 1636 54.7% 23.5% 21.8% +4.5 11
2003-09-27 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-2 1636 1718 21.8% 23.5% 54.7% -4.5 2
2003-10-04 Aberdeen L 1-3 1746 1687 52.0% 24.0% 24.0% -15.9 8
2003-10-04 @ Kilmarnock W 3-1 1687 1746 24.0% 24.0% 52.0% +15.9 7
2003-10-04 Celtic L 0-1 2045 2038 45.4% 24.8% 29.8% -8.7 21
2003-10-04 @ Rangers W 1-0 2038 2045 29.8% 24.8% 45.4% +8.7 22
2003-10-04 Dundee D 2-2 1815 1749 52.9% 23.8% 23.3% -0.9 14
2003-10-04 @ Heart of Midlothian D 2-2 1749 1815 23.3% 23.8% 52.9% +0.9 11
2003-10-04 Dunfermline Athletic D 0-0 1704 1722 41.7% 25.0% 33.2% -0.4 9
2003-10-04 @ Livingston D 0-0 1722 1704 33.2% 25.0% 41.7% +0.4 12
2003-10-04 Hibernian L 0-1 1632 1718 32.3% 25.0% 42.7% -6.7 2
2003-10-04 @ Partick Thistle W 1-0 1718 1632 42.7% 25.0% 32.3% +6.7 11
2003-10-04 Motherwell L 0-2 1648 1667 41.8% 25.0% 33.2% -15.4 5
2003-10-04 @ Dundee United W 2-0 1667 1648 33.2% 25.0% 41.8% +15.4 11
2003-10-18 Dundee United L 0-1 1703 1633 53.3% 23.8% 22.9% -10.0 7
2003-10-18 @ Aberdeen W 1-0 1633 1703 22.9% 23.8% 53.3% +10.0 8
2003-10-18 Heart of Midlothian W 5-0 2047 1814 70.0% 18.6% 11.4% +10.9 25
2003-10-18 @ Celtic L 0-5 1814 2047 11.4% 18.6% 70.0% -10.9 14
2003-10-18 Kilmarnock L 2-3 1723 1730 43.3% 24.9% 31.8% -7.5 12
2003-10-18 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 3-2 1730 1723 31.8% 24.9% 43.3% +7.5 11
2003-10-18 Livingston L 0-2 1725 1703 47.2% 24.6% 28.1% -17.0 11
2003-10-18 @ Hibernian W 2-0 1703 1725 28.1% 24.6% 47.2% +17.0 12
2003-10-18 Partick Thistle W 1-0 1750 1625 59.6% 22.3% 18.1% +4.0 14
2003-10-18 @ Dundee L 0-1 1625 1750 18.1% 22.3% 59.6% -4.0 2
2003-10-19 Rangers D 1-1 1682 2037 10.3% 17.7% 72.1% +2.7 12
2003-10-19 @ Motherwell D 1-1 2037 1682 72.1% 17.7% 10.3% -2.7 22
2003-10-25 Aberdeen W 4-0 2057 1693 80.1% 13.5% 6.4% +4.5 28
2003-10-25 @ Celtic L 0-4 1693 2057 6.4% 13.5% 80.1% -4.5 7
2003-10-25 Heart of Midlothian L 1-4 1621 1804 21.6% 23.4% 55.0% -11.0 2
2003-10-25 @ Partick Thistle W 4-1 1804 1621 55.0% 23.4% 21.6% +11.0 17
2003-10-25 Kilmarnock W 3-1 1708 1738 40.2% 25.1% 34.7% +11.6 14
2003-10-25 @ Hibernian L 1-3 1738 1708 34.7% 25.1% 40.2% -11.5 11
2003-10-25 Rangers D 0-0 1720 2034 12.2% 19.2% 68.5% +2.8 13
2003-10-25 @ Livingston D 0-0 2034 1720 68.5% 19.2% 12.2% -2.8 23
2003-10-26 Dundee D 1-1 1643 1754 29.2% 24.7% 46.1% +0.7 9
2003-10-26 @ Dundee United D 1-1 1754 1643 46.1% 24.7% 29.2% -0.7 15
2003-11-01 Celtic L 0-5 1726 2062 11.2% 18.4% 70.5% -10.7 11
2003-11-01 @ Kilmarnock W 5-0 2062 1726 70.5% 18.4% 11.2% +10.6 31
2003-11-01 Dundee United W 2-0 1715 1644 53.5% 23.7% 22.8% +9.4 15
2003-11-01 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-2 1644 1715 22.8% 23.7% 53.5% -9.4 9
2003-11-01 Hibernian D 1-1 1753 1720 48.8% 24.4% 26.7% -0.9 16
2003-11-01 @ Dundee D 1-1 1720 1753 26.7% 24.4% 48.8% +0.9 15
2003-11-01 Livingston W 3-1 1814 1723 55.9% 23.2% 20.9% +7.5 20
2003-11-01 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-3 1723 1814 20.9% 23.2% 55.9% -7.5 13
2003-11-01 Motherwell L 0-3 1689 1685 44.8% 24.8% 30.3% -23.6 7
2003-11-01 @ Aberdeen W 3-0 1685 1689 30.3% 24.8% 44.8% +23.6 15
2003-11-01 Partick Thistle W 3-1 2031 1610 83.6% 11.5% 4.9% +1.5 26
2003-11-01 @ Rangers L 1-3 1610 2031 4.9% 11.5% 83.6% -1.5 2
2003-11-08 Dundee United D 2-2 1720 1634 55.3% 23.4% 21.4% -1.1 16
2003-11-08 @ Hibernian D 2-2 1634 1720 21.4% 23.4% 55.3% +1.1 10
2003-11-08 Dunfermline Athletic W 5-0 2073 1725 79.0% 14.1% 6.9% +6.1 34
2003-11-08 @ Celtic L 0-5 1725 2073 6.9% 14.1% 79.0% -6.1 15
2003-11-08 Motherwell L 0-1 1752 1708 50.1% 24.3% 25.6% -9.5 16
2003-11-08 @ Dundee W 1-0 1708 1752 25.6% 24.3% 50.1% +9.5 18
2003-11-08 Partick Thistle W 2-0 1715 1609 57.6% 22.8% 19.6% +8.2 16
2003-11-08 @ Livingston L 0-2 1609 1715 19.6% 22.8% 57.6% -8.2 2
2003-11-09 Heart of Midlothian L 0-1 1665 1822 24.0% 24.0% 52.0% -5.2 7
2003-11-09 @ Aberdeen W 1-0 1822 1665 52.0% 24.0% 24.0% +5.2 23
2003-11-09 Rangers L 2-3 1716 2033 12.1% 19.1% 68.8% -2.4 11
2003-11-09 @ Kilmarnock W 3-2 2033 1716 68.8% 19.1% 12.1% +2.4 29
2003-11-22 Aberdeen W 3-0 2035 1660 80.8% 13.1% 6.1% +3.3 32
2003-11-22 @ Rangers L 0-3 1660 2035 6.1% 13.1% 80.8% -3.3 7
2003-11-22 Celtic L 1-5 1635 2079 6.9% 14.2% 78.8% -4.2 10
2003-11-22 @ Dundee United W 5-1 2079 1635 78.8% 14.2% 6.9% +4.2 37
2003-11-22 Dundee W 2-0 1719 1743 40.9% 25.1% 34.0% +13.1 18
2003-11-22 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-2 1743 1719 34.0% 25.1% 40.9% -13.1 16
2003-11-22 Kilmarnock L 2-4 1600 1713 28.9% 24.7% 46.3% -8.9 2
2003-11-22 @ Partick Thistle W 4-2 1713 1600 46.3% 24.7% 28.9% +8.9 14
2003-11-22 Livingston D 1-1 1718 1724 43.6% 24.9% 31.5% -0.5 19
2003-11-22 @ Motherwell D 1-1 1724 1718 31.5% 24.9% 43.6% +0.5 17
2003-11-23 Hibernian W 2-0 1827 1719 57.7% 22.8% 19.5% +8.1 26
2003-11-23 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-2 1719 1827 19.5% 22.8% 57.7% -8.2 16
2003-11-25 Dunfermline Athletic D 2-2 1717 1732 42.4% 25.0% 32.6% -0.3 20
2003-11-25 @ Motherwell D 2-2 1732 1717 32.6% 25.0% 42.4% +0.3 19
2003-11-29 Aberdeen D 2-2 1732 1656 54.0% 23.6% 22.4% -1.0 20
2003-11-29 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 2-2 1656 1732 22.4% 23.6% 54.0% +1.0 8
2003-11-29 Dundee D 1-1 1724 1730 43.5% 24.9% 31.5% -0.5 18
2003-11-29 @ Livingston D 1-1 1730 1724 31.5% 24.9% 43.5% +0.5 17
2003-11-29 Motherwell W 2-0 1722 1717 45.0% 24.8% 30.1% +11.9 17
2003-11-29 @ Kilmarnock L 0-2 1717 1722 30.1% 24.8% 45.0% -11.9 20
2003-11-29 Partick Thistle W 3-1 2083 1591 87.2% 9.3% 3.5% +1.1 40
2003-11-29 @ Celtic L 1-3 1591 2083 3.5% 9.3% 87.2% -1.0 2
2003-11-30 Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 1631 1835 19.6% 22.9% 57.5% +10.0 13
2003-11-30 @ Dundee United L 1-2 1835 1631 57.5% 22.9% 19.6% -10.0 26
2003-11-30 Rangers L 0-1 1711 2038 11.6% 18.7% 69.7% -2.5 16
2003-11-30 @ Hibernian W 1-0 2038 1711 69.7% 18.7% 11.6% +2.5 35
2003-12-06 Celtic L 0-2 1724 2084 10.0% 17.4% 72.5% -4.0 18
2003-12-06 @ Livingston W 2-0 2084 1724 72.5% 17.4% 10.0% +4.0 43
2003-12-06 Dundee United W 2-1 2041 1641 82.3% 12.3% 5.4% +1.0 38
2003-12-06 @ Rangers L 1-2 1641 2041 5.4% 12.3% 82.3% -1.0 13
2003-12-06 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-2 1825 1731 56.2% 23.2% 20.6% -9.8 26
2003-12-06 @ Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 1731 1825 20.6% 23.2% 56.2% +9.8 23
2003-12-06 Kilmarnock L 1-2 1730 1734 43.8% 24.9% 31.3% -8.0 17
2003-12-06 @ Dundee W 2-1 1734 1730 31.3% 24.9% 43.8% +8.0 20
2003-12-07 Hibernian W 3-1 1657 1709 37.1% 25.1% 37.8% +12.3 11
2003-12-07 @ Aberdeen L 1-3 1709 1657 37.8% 25.1% 37.1% -12.3 16
2003-12-07 Motherwell W 1-0 1590 1705 28.7% 24.7% 46.6% +8.9 5
2003-12-07 @ Partick Thistle L 0-1 1705 1590 46.6% 24.7% 28.7% -8.9 20
2003-12-13 Aberdeen L 0-3 1599 1670 34.4% 25.1% 40.5% -19.2 5
2003-12-13 @ Partick Thistle W 3-0 1670 1599 40.5% 25.1% 34.4% +19.2 14
2003-12-13 Dundee W 3-2 2088 1722 80.2% 13.5% 6.3% +1.1 46
2003-12-13 @ Celtic L 2-3 1722 2088 6.3% 13.5% 80.2% -1.1 17
2003-12-13 Hibernian L 0-1 1696 1696 44.3% 24.9% 30.8% -8.5 20
2003-12-13 @ Motherwell W 1-0 1696 1696 30.8% 24.9% 44.3% +8.5 19
2003-12-13 Kilmarnock W 2-1 1816 1742 53.7% 23.7% 22.6% +4.7 29
2003-12-13 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1742 1816 22.6% 23.7% 53.7% -4.7 20
2003-12-13 Livingston W 2-0 1640 1720 33.2% 25.0% 41.8% +15.4 16
2003-12-13 @ Dundee United L 0-2 1720 1640 41.8% 25.0% 33.2% -15.3 18
2003-12-14 Rangers W 2-0 1741 2042 12.9% 19.7% 67.4% +22.9 26
2003-12-14 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-2 2042 1741 67.4% 19.7% 12.9% -22.9 38
2003-12-20 Dundee D 2-2 1689 1721 39.8% 25.1% 35.1% -0.1 15
2003-12-20 @ Aberdeen D 2-2 1721 1689 35.1% 25.1% 39.8% +0.1 18
2003-12-20 Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 2019 1820 67.0% 19.8% 13.2% +2.7 41
2003-12-20 @ Rangers L 1-2 1820 2019 13.2% 19.8% 67.0% -2.7 29
2003-12-20 Livingston L 0-3 1738 1704 48.8% 24.4% 26.8% -25.3 20
2003-12-20 @ Kilmarnock W 3-0 1704 1738 26.8% 24.4% 48.8% +25.3 21
2003-12-21 Celtic L 0-2 1688 2089 8.4% 15.9% 75.8% -3.3 20
2003-12-21 @ Motherwell W 2-0 2089 1688 75.8% 15.9% 8.4% +3.3 49
2003-12-21 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-2 1705 1764 36.1% 25.1% 38.8% -6.9 19
2003-12-21 @ Hibernian W 2-1 1764 1705 38.8% 25.1% 36.1% +6.9 29
2003-12-23 Partick Thistle D 0-0 1655 1580 54.0% 23.6% 22.4% -1.5 17
2003-12-23 @ Dundee United D 0-0 1580 1655 22.4% 23.6% 54.0% +1.5 6
2003-12-27 Aberdeen D 1-1 1730 1689 49.7% 24.3% 26.0% -1.0 22
2003-12-27 @ Livingston D 1-1 1689 1730 26.0% 24.3% 49.7% +1.0 16
2003-12-27 Dundee United L 0-2 1712 1654 51.9% 24.0% 24.1% -18.3 20
2003-12-27 @ Kilmarnock W 2-0 1654 1712 24.1% 24.0% 51.9% +18.3 20
2003-12-27 Dunfermline Athletic W 4-1 1582 1771 20.9% 23.2% 55.8% +23.9 9
2003-12-27 @ Partick Thistle L 1-4 1771 1582 55.8% 23.2% 20.9% -23.9 29
2003-12-27 Hibernian W 6-0 2092 1698 82.0% 12.5% 5.6% +5.7 52
2003-12-27 @ Celtic L 0-6 1698 2092 5.6% 12.5% 82.0% -5.7 19
2003-12-27 Motherwell D 0-0 1817 1685 60.5% 22.1% 17.5% -2.1 30
2003-12-27 @ Heart of Midlothian D 0-0 1685 1817 17.5% 22.1% 60.5% +2.1 21
2003-12-28 Rangers L 0-2 1721 2022 13.0% 19.7% 67.3% -5.4 18
2003-12-28 @ Dundee W 2-0 2022 1721 67.3% 19.7% 13.0% +5.4 44
2004-01-03 Dundee United W 3-1 1687 1672 46.2% 24.7% 29.0% +10.0 24
2004-01-03 @ Motherwell L 1-3 1672 1687 29.0% 24.7% 46.2% -10.0 20
2004-01-03 Kilmarnock W 3-1 1690 1694 43.8% 24.9% 31.3% +10.7 19
2004-01-03 @ Aberdeen L 1-3 1694 1690 31.3% 24.9% 43.8% -10.7 20
2004-01-03 Livingston D 2-2 1747 1729 46.8% 24.7% 28.6% -0.5 30
2004-01-03 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 2-2 1729 1747 28.6% 24.7% 46.8% +0.5 23
2004-01-03 Partick Thistle W 3-2 1692 1605 55.4% 23.4% 21.3% +4.2 22
2004-01-03 @ Hibernian L 2-3 1605 1692 21.3% 23.4% 55.4% -4.2 9
2004-01-03 Rangers W 3-0 2098 2027 53.4% 23.7% 22.8% +13.7 55
2004-01-03 @ Celtic L 0-3 2027 2098 22.8% 23.7% 53.4% -13.7 44
2004-01-06 Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1716 1815 30.6% 24.9% 44.5% -6.0 18
2004-01-06 @ Dundee W 2-1 1815 1716 44.5% 24.9% 30.6% +6.0 33
2004-01-17 Aberdeen W 3-2 1662 1700 39.0% 25.1% 35.9% +6.5 23
2004-01-17 @ Dundee United L 2-3 1700 1662 35.9% 25.1% 39.0% -6.5 19
2004-01-17 Dundee L 1-2 1601 1710 29.5% 24.8% 45.8% -5.9 9
2004-01-17 @ Partick Thistle W 2-1 1710 1601 45.8% 24.8% 29.5% +5.9 21
2004-01-17 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-1 1683 1746 35.5% 25.1% 39.4% +0.2 21
2004-01-17 @ Kilmarnock D 1-1 1746 1683 39.4% 25.1% 35.5% -0.2 31
2004-01-17 Hibernian W 1-0 1729 1697 48.6% 24.5% 26.9% +5.8 26
2004-01-17 @ Livingston L 0-1 1697 1729 26.9% 24.5% 48.6% -5.8 22
2004-01-17 Motherwell W 1-0 2013 1697 76.8% 15.3% 7.9% +1.6 47
2004-01-17 @ Rangers L 0-1 1697 2013 7.9% 15.3% 76.8% -1.6 24
2004-01-18 Celtic L 0-1 1821 2112 13.6% 20.1% 66.4% -3.0 33
2004-01-18 @ Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 2112 1821 66.4% 20.1% 13.6% +3.0 58
2004-01-24 Celtic L 1-3 1694 2115 7.7% 15.1% 77.2% -2.6 19
2004-01-24 @ Aberdeen W 3-1 2115 1694 77.2% 15.1% 7.7% +2.6 61
2004-01-24 Hibernian L 0-2 1683 1691 43.3% 24.9% 31.7% -15.8 21
2004-01-24 @ Kilmarnock W 2-0 1691 1683 31.7% 24.9% 43.3% +15.8 25
2004-01-24 Livingston W 1-0 2015 1735 74.0% 16.7% 9.3% +2.0 50
2004-01-24 @ Rangers L 0-1 1735 2015 9.3% 16.7% 74.0% -1.9 26
2004-01-24 Motherwell W 1-0 1746 1695 51.0% 24.1% 24.9% +5.4 34
2004-01-24 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-1 1695 1746 24.9% 24.1% 51.0% -5.4 24
2004-01-24 Partick Thistle W 2-0 1818 1595 69.2% 18.9% 11.9% +4.9 36
2004-01-24 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-2 1595 1818 11.9% 18.9% 69.2% -4.9 9
2004-01-25 Dundee United W 2-1 1716 1669 50.5% 24.2% 25.3% +5.2 24
2004-01-25 @ Dundee L 1-2 1669 1716 25.3% 24.2% 50.5% -5.1 23
2004-01-31 Dundee D 1-1 1707 1721 42.4% 25.0% 32.6% -0.4 26
2004-01-31 @ Hibernian D 1-1 1721 1707 32.6% 25.0% 42.4% +0.4 25
2004-01-31 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-0 1664 1751 32.1% 25.0% 42.9% +8.3 26
2004-01-31 @ Dundee United L 0-1 1751 1664 42.9% 25.0% 32.1% -8.3 34
2004-01-31 Kilmarnock W 5-1 2117 1668 85.1% 10.6% 4.3% +2.4 64
2004-01-31 @ Celtic L 1-5 1668 2117 4.3% 10.6% 85.1% -2.4 21
2004-02-01 Rangers L 0-1 1590 2017 7.5% 14.9% 77.6% -1.5 9
2004-02-01 @ Partick Thistle W 1-0 2017 1590 77.6% 14.9% 7.5% +1.5 53
2004-02-10 Hibernian D 0-0 1672 1706 39.6% 25.1% 35.4% -0.2 27
2004-02-10 @ Dundee United D 0-0 1706 1672 35.4% 25.1% 39.6% +0.2 27
2004-02-11 Aberdeen W 1-0 1823 1691 60.4% 22.1% 17.6% +3.9 39
2004-02-11 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-1 1691 1823 17.6% 22.1% 60.4% -3.9 19
2004-02-11 Celtic L 1-4 1743 2120 9.3% 16.8% 73.9% -4.6 34
2004-02-11 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 4-1 2120 1743 73.9% 16.8% 9.3% +4.6 67
2004-02-11 Dundee W 5-3 1690 1721 39.9% 25.1% 35.0% +9.8 27
2004-02-11 @ Motherwell L 3-5 1721 1690 35.0% 25.1% 39.9% -9.8 25
2004-02-11 Kilmarnock W 2-0 2019 1665 79.3% 14.0% 6.7% +2.5 56
2004-02-11 @ Rangers L 0-2 1665 2019 6.7% 14.0% 79.3% -2.5 21
2004-02-11 Livingston W 5-2 1589 1733 25.4% 24.2% 50.3% +19.0 12
2004-02-11 @ Partick Thistle L 2-5 1733 1589 50.3% 24.2% 25.4% -19.0 26
2004-02-14 Dundee United W 2-1 2124 1672 85.3% 10.5% 4.2% +0.8 70
2004-02-14 @ Celtic L 1-2 1672 2124 4.2% 10.5% 85.3% -0.7 27
2004-02-14 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-1 1712 1738 40.6% 25.1% 34.3% -8.0 25
2004-02-14 @ Dundee W 1-0 1738 1712 34.3% 25.1% 40.6% +8.0 37
2004-02-14 Motherwell W 3-1 1714 1699 46.3% 24.7% 29.0% +10.0 29
2004-02-14 @ Livingston L 1-3 1699 1714 29.0% 24.7% 46.3% -10.0 27
2004-02-14 Partick Thistle W 2-1 1663 1608 51.5% 24.1% 24.5% +5.0 24
2004-02-14 @ Kilmarnock L 1-2 1608 1663 24.5% 24.1% 51.5% -5.0 12
2004-02-14 Rangers D 1-1 1688 2021 11.2% 18.5% 70.3% +2.6 20
2004-02-14 @ Aberdeen D 1-1 2021 1688 70.3% 18.5% 11.2% -2.6 57
2004-02-15 Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1706 1827 28.0% 24.6% 47.3% +0.8 28
2004-02-15 @ Hibernian D 1-1 1827 1706 47.3% 24.6% 28.0% -0.8 40
2004-02-21 Dundee United W 3-1 1826 1671 62.8% 21.3% 15.9% +5.8 43
2004-02-21 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-3 1671 1826 15.9% 21.3% 62.8% -5.8 27
2004-02-21 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-0 1690 1746 36.4% 25.1% 38.5% +14.4 23
2004-02-21 @ Aberdeen L 0-2 1746 1690 38.5% 25.1% 36.4% -14.4 37
2004-02-21 Hibernian W 3-0 2018 1707 76.4% 15.5% 8.1% +4.6 60
2004-02-21 @ Rangers L 0-3 1707 2018 8.1% 15.5% 76.4% -4.6 28
2004-02-21 Kilmarnock W 1-0 1689 1668 47.2% 24.6% 28.1% +6.0 30
2004-02-21 @ Motherwell L 0-1 1668 1689 28.1% 24.6% 47.2% -6.0 24
2004-02-21 Livingston W 1-0 1704 1724 41.5% 25.0% 33.4% +6.9 28
2004-02-21 @ Dundee L 0-1 1724 1704 33.4% 25.0% 41.5% -6.9 29
2004-02-22 Celtic L 1-4 1603 2125 4.8% 11.4% 83.7% -2.1 12
2004-02-22 @ Partick Thistle W 4-1 2125 1603 83.7% 11.4% 4.8% +2.1 73
2004-02-24 Aberdeen W 1-0 1695 1705 43.1% 25.0% 32.0% +6.6 33
2004-02-24 @ Motherwell L 0-1 1705 1695 32.0% 25.0% 43.1% -6.6 23
2004-02-24 Heart of Midlothian L 2-3 1717 1832 28.7% 24.7% 46.6% -5.4 29
2004-02-24 @ Livingston W 3-2 1832 1717 46.6% 24.7% 28.7% +5.4 46
2004-02-28 Aberdeen L 0-1 1703 1698 45.0% 24.8% 30.2% -8.6 28
2004-02-28 @ Hibernian W 1-0 1698 1703 30.2% 24.8% 45.0% +8.6 26
2004-02-28 Dundee W 4-2 1662 1710 37.5% 25.1% 37.4% +10.9 27
2004-02-28 @ Kilmarnock L 2-4 1710 1662 37.4% 25.1% 37.5% -10.9 28
2004-02-28 Heart of Midlothian D 0-0 1732 1838 29.9% 24.8% 45.3% +0.7 38
2004-02-28 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-0 1838 1732 45.3% 24.8% 29.9% -0.7 47
2004-02-28 Partick Thistle W 3-0 1702 1601 57.0% 23.0% 20.0% +12.2 36
2004-02-28 @ Motherwell L 0-3 1601 1702 20.0% 23.0% 57.0% -12.1 12
2004-02-29 Livingston W 5-1 2127 1712 83.2% 11.7% 5.0% +2.9 76
2004-02-29 @ Celtic L 1-5 1712 2127 5.0% 11.7% 83.2% -2.9 29
2004-02-29 Rangers W 2-0 1665 2023 10.1% 17.5% 72.3% +24.2 30
2004-02-29 @ Dundee United L 0-2 2023 1665 72.3% 17.5% 10.1% -24.2 60
2004-03-07 Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1673 1837 23.3% 23.8% 52.9% +1.2 28
2004-03-07 @ Kilmarnock D 1-1 1837 1673 52.9% 23.8% 23.3% -1.2 48
2004-03-09 Partick Thistle D 0-0 1707 1589 58.8% 22.5% 18.6% -1.9 27
2004-03-09 @ Aberdeen D 0-0 1589 1707 18.6% 22.5% 58.8% +1.9 13
2004-03-13 Aberdeen D 1-1 1700 1705 43.6% 24.9% 31.4% -0.5 29
2004-03-13 @ Dundee D 1-1 1705 1700 31.4% 24.9% 43.6% +0.5 28
2004-03-13 Dundee United D 1-1 1591 1689 30.7% 24.9% 44.4% +0.5 14
2004-03-13 @ Partick Thistle D 1-1 1689 1591 44.4% 24.9% 30.7% -0.5 31
2004-03-13 Rangers D 1-1 1836 1999 23.4% 23.9% 52.7% +1.2 49
2004-03-13 @ Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1999 1836 52.7% 23.9% 23.4% -1.2 61
2004-03-14 Motherwell D 1-1 2130 1714 83.3% 11.7% 5.0% -3.4 77
2004-03-14 @ Celtic D 1-1 1714 2130 5.0% 11.7% 83.3% +3.4 37
2004-03-17 Celtic L 1-2 1699 2127 7.4% 14.8% 77.7% -1.4 29
2004-03-17 @ Dundee W 2-1 2127 1699 77.7% 14.8% 7.4% +1.4 80
2004-03-20 Dundee W 4-0 1998 1698 75.5% 16.0% 8.5% +6.3 64
2004-03-20 @ Rangers L 0-4 1698 1998 8.5% 16.0% 75.5% -6.3 29
2004-03-20 Kilmarnock W 4-1 1689 1674 46.4% 24.7% 28.9% +14.1 34
2004-03-20 @ Dundee United L 1-4 1674 1689 28.9% 24.7% 46.4% -14.1 28
2004-03-20 Partick Thistle W 1-0 1733 1591 61.4% 21.8% 16.8% +3.7 41
2004-03-20 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-1 1591 1733 16.8% 21.8% 61.4% -3.8 14
2004-03-21 Celtic L 0-4 1694 2128 7.2% 14.6% 78.1% -5.3 28
2004-03-21 @ Hibernian W 4-0 2128 1694 78.1% 14.6% 7.2% +5.3 83
2004-03-21 Livingston L 1-2 1705 1709 43.8% 24.9% 31.2% -8.0 28
2004-03-21 @ Aberdeen W 2-1 1709 1705 31.2% 24.9% 43.8% +8.0 32
2004-03-23 Dunfermline Athletic W 4-1 2004 1736 73.0% 17.2% 9.8% +4.8 67
2004-03-23 @ Rangers L 1-4 1736 2004 9.8% 17.2% 73.0% -4.8 41
2004-03-24 Dundee United L 2-3 1717 1703 46.2% 24.7% 29.1% -7.9 32
2004-03-24 @ Livingston W 3-2 1703 1717 29.1% 24.7% 46.2% +7.9 37
2004-03-24 Motherwell D 3-3 1689 1718 40.3% 25.1% 34.6% -0.1 29
2004-03-24 @ Hibernian D 3-3 1718 1689 34.6% 25.1% 40.3% +0.1 38
2004-03-27 Aberdeen W 3-1 1660 1697 39.1% 25.1% 35.8% +11.8 31
2004-03-27 @ Kilmarnock L 1-3 1697 1660 35.8% 25.1% 39.1% -11.8 28
2004-03-27 Dundee W 3-1 1837 1691 61.8% 21.7% 16.6% +6.0 52
2004-03-27 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-3 1691 1837 16.6% 21.7% 61.8% -6.0 29
2004-03-27 Dunfermline Athletic D 0-0 1709 1732 41.2% 25.1% 33.8% -0.3 33
2004-03-27 @ Livingston D 0-0 1732 1709 33.8% 25.1% 41.2% +0.3 42
2004-03-27 Hibernian D 1-1 1587 1689 30.4% 24.9% 44.8% +0.6 15
2004-03-27 @ Partick Thistle D 1-1 1689 1587 44.8% 24.9% 30.4% -0.6 30
2004-03-27 Motherwell W 1-0 1711 1718 43.4% 24.9% 31.6% +6.6 40
2004-03-27 @ Dundee United L 0-1 1718 1711 31.6% 24.9% 43.4% -6.6 38
2004-03-28 Celtic L 1-2 2009 2133 27.6% 24.6% 47.9% -5.5 67
2004-03-28 @ Rangers W 2-1 2133 2009 47.9% 24.6% 27.6% +5.5 86
2004-04-03 Dundee United W 3-0 1685 1718 39.9% 25.1% 35.1% +19.5 31
2004-04-03 @ Aberdeen L 0-3 1718 1685 35.1% 25.1% 39.9% -19.5 40
2004-04-03 Heart of Midlothian D 2-2 2139 1843 75.2% 16.1% 8.6% -2.2 87
2004-04-03 @ Celtic D 2-2 1843 2139 8.6% 16.1% 75.2% +2.2 53
2004-04-03 Kilmarnock W 2-1 1732 1672 52.2% 23.9% 23.9% +4.9 45
2004-04-03 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-2 1672 1732 23.9% 23.9% 52.2% -4.9 31
2004-04-03 Livingston W 3-1 1688 1709 41.5% 25.0% 33.5% +11.2 33
2004-04-03 @ Hibernian L 1-3 1709 1688 33.5% 25.0% 41.5% -11.2 33
2004-04-03 Partick Thistle W 2-1 1685 1588 56.5% 23.1% 20.4% +4.2 32
2004-04-03 @ Dundee L 1-2 1588 1685 20.4% 23.1% 56.5% -4.2 15
2004-04-04 Rangers L 0-1 1711 2003 13.4% 20.0% 66.5% -3.0 38
2004-04-04 @ Motherwell W 1-0 2003 1711 66.5% 20.0% 13.4% +3.0 70
2004-04-07 Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1708 1845 26.2% 24.4% 49.5% +0.9 39
2004-04-07 @ Motherwell D 1-1 1845 1708 49.5% 24.4% 26.2% -1.0 54
2004-04-07 Kilmarnock D 1-1 1697 1667 48.4% 24.5% 27.1% -0.9 34
2004-04-07 @ Livingston D 1-1 1667 1697 27.1% 24.5% 48.4% +0.9 32
2004-04-10 Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 1584 1844 15.4% 21.1% 63.5% +11.6 18
2004-04-10 @ Partick Thistle L 0-1 1844 1584 63.5% 21.1% 15.4% -11.6 54
2004-04-10 Kilmarnock W 3-0 1699 1668 48.5% 24.5% 27.0% +15.8 36
2004-04-10 @ Hibernian L 0-3 1668 1699 27.0% 24.5% 48.5% -15.8 32
2004-04-11 Dundee D 2-2 1698 1690 45.5% 24.8% 29.7% -0.5 41
2004-04-11 @ Dundee United D 2-2 1690 1698 29.7% 24.8% 45.5% +0.5 33
2004-04-13 Hibernian D 1-1 1737 1715 47.2% 24.6% 28.1% -0.8 46
2004-04-13 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-1 1715 1737 28.1% 24.6% 47.2% +0.8 37
2004-04-14 Rangers D 1-1 1696 2006 12.5% 19.4% 68.2% +2.5 35
2004-04-14 @ Livingston D 1-1 2006 1696 68.2% 19.4% 12.5% -2.5 71
2004-04-15 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-0 1709 1736 40.6% 25.1% 34.3% +7.0 42
2004-04-15 @ Motherwell L 0-1 1736 1709 34.3% 25.1% 40.6% -7.0 46
2004-04-17 Dundee United D 1-1 1729 1698 48.5% 24.5% 27.0% -0.9 47
2004-04-17 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-1 1698 1729 27.0% 24.5% 48.5% +0.9 42
2004-04-17 Hibernian D 2-2 1690 1716 40.7% 25.1% 34.2% -0.2 34
2004-04-17 @ Dundee D 2-2 1716 1690 34.2% 25.1% 40.7% +0.2 38
2004-04-17 Livingston D 1-1 1833 1699 60.5% 22.0% 17.4% -1.9 55
2004-04-17 @ Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1699 1833 17.4% 22.0% 60.5% +1.9 36
2004-04-17 Partick Thistle W 2-0 2004 1595 82.8% 12.0% 5.2% +1.9 74
2004-04-17 @ Rangers L 0-2 1595 2004 5.2% 12.0% 82.8% -1.9 18
2004-04-18 Celtic L 0-1 1652 2137 5.8% 12.7% 81.5% -1.1 32
2004-04-18 @ Kilmarnock W 1-0 2137 1652 81.5% 12.7% 5.8% +1.1 90
2004-04-18 Motherwell L 0-2 1705 1716 42.8% 25.0% 32.2% -15.6 31
2004-04-18 @ Aberdeen W 2-0 1716 1705 32.2% 25.0% 42.8% +15.7 45
2004-04-21 Aberdeen L 1-2 2138 1689 85.1% 10.6% 4.3% -13.4 90
2004-04-21 @ Celtic W 2-1 1689 2138 4.3% 10.6% 85.1% +13.4 34

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2004-04-24 Aberdeen W 2-0 1701 1703 44.1% 24.9% 31.0% +12.2 3
2004-04-24 @ Livingston L 0-2 1703 1701 31.0% 24.9% 44.1% -12.2 0
2004-04-24 Dundee L 0-1 1593 1690 31.0% 24.9% 44.1% -6.5 0
2004-04-24 @ Partick Thistle W 1-0 1690 1593 44.1% 24.9% 31.0% +6.5 3
2004-04-24 Hibernian W 2-0 1651 1716 35.1% 25.1% 39.8% +14.8 3
2004-04-24 @ Kilmarnock L 0-2 1716 1651 39.8% 25.1% 35.1% -14.8 0
2004-04-24 Motherwell W 3-0 1728 1732 43.9% 24.9% 31.2% +17.8 3
2004-04-24 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-3 1732 1728 31.2% 24.9% 43.9% -17.8 0
2004-04-24 Rangers D 3-3 1698 2006 12.6% 19.4% 68.0% +1.5 1
2004-04-24 @ Dundee United D 3-3 2006 1698 68.0% 19.4% 12.6% -1.5 1
2004-04-25 Celtic D 1-1 1831 2125 13.4% 20.0% 66.7% +2.3 1
2004-04-25 @ Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 2125 1831 66.7% 20.0% 13.4% -2.4 1
2004-05-01 Aberdeen W 2-0 1587 1690 30.1% 24.8% 45.0% +16.3 3
2004-05-01 @ Partick Thistle L 0-2 1690 1587 45.0% 24.8% 30.1% -16.3 0
2004-05-01 Dundee W 1-0 1701 1696 45.0% 24.8% 30.2% +6.3 3
2004-05-01 @ Hibernian L 0-1 1696 1701 30.2% 24.8% 45.0% -6.3 3
2004-05-01 Heart of Midlothian L 0-2 1700 1833 26.6% 24.4% 49.0% -10.8 1
2004-05-01 @ Dundee United W 2-0 1833 1700 49.0% 24.4% 26.6% +10.8 4
2004-05-01 Livingston W 4-2 1665 1713 37.7% 25.1% 37.2% +10.9 6
2004-05-01 @ Kilmarnock L 2-4 1713 1665 37.2% 25.1% 37.7% -10.9 3
2004-05-01 Motherwell W 4-0 2004 1714 74.8% 16.4% 8.9% +6.6 4
2004-05-01 @ Rangers L 0-4 1714 2004 8.9% 16.4% 74.8% -6.7 0
2004-05-02 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-2 2122 1746 80.8% 13.1% 6.0% -13.0 1
2004-05-02 @ Celtic W 2-1 1746 2122 6.0% 13.1% 80.8% +13.0 6
2004-05-05 Partick Thistle L 1-2 1708 1603 57.3% 22.9% 19.8% -10.0 3
2004-05-05 @ Hibernian W 2-1 1603 1708 19.8% 22.9% 57.3% +10.0 6
2004-05-08 Dundee United L 0-1 1707 1689 46.8% 24.7% 28.6% -8.9 0
2004-05-08 @ Motherwell W 1-0 1689 1707 28.6% 24.7% 46.8% +8.9 4
2004-05-08 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-1 1844 1759 55.1% 23.4% 21.5% +4.5 7
2004-05-08 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1759 1844 21.5% 23.4% 55.1% -4.5 6
2004-05-08 Hibernian L 0-1 1674 1698 41.1% 25.1% 33.9% -8.0 0
2004-05-08 @ Aberdeen W 1-0 1698 1674 33.9% 25.1% 41.1% +8.0 6
2004-05-08 Kilmarnock W 2-0 1690 1676 46.2% 24.7% 29.1% +11.6 6
2004-05-08 @ Dundee L 0-2 1676 1690 29.1% 24.7% 46.2% -11.6 6
2004-05-08 Rangers W 1-0 2109 2011 56.6% 23.1% 20.3% +4.5 4
2004-05-08 @ Celtic L 0-1 2011 2109 20.3% 23.1% 56.6% -4.5 4
2004-05-09 Partick Thistle D 2-2 1702 1613 55.6% 23.3% 21.1% -1.1 4
2004-05-09 @ Livingston D 2-2 1613 1702 21.1% 23.3% 55.6% +1.1 7
2004-05-11 Dunfermline Athletic W 3-2 1698 1755 36.4% 25.1% 38.5% +6.9 7
2004-05-11 @ Dundee United L 2-3 1755 1698 38.5% 25.1% 36.4% -6.8 6
2004-05-12 Aberdeen W 4-0 1665 1666 44.2% 24.9% 30.9% +23.1 9
2004-05-12 @ Kilmarnock L 0-4 1666 1665 30.9% 24.9% 44.2% -23.1 0
2004-05-12 Celtic D 1-1 1698 2114 7.9% 15.3% 76.8% +3.0 1
2004-05-12 @ Motherwell D 1-1 2114 1698 76.8% 15.3% 7.9% -3.0 5
2004-05-12 Heart of Midlothian L 0-1 2006 1848 63.0% 21.3% 15.7% -11.5 4
2004-05-12 @ Rangers W 1-0 1848 2006 15.7% 21.3% 63.0% +11.5 10
2004-05-12 Livingston W 2-0 1702 1701 44.4% 24.9% 30.7% +12.1 9
2004-05-12 @ Dundee L 0-2 1701 1702 30.7% 24.9% 44.4% -12.1 4
2004-05-15 Dundee L 1-2 1643 1714 34.4% 25.1% 40.5% -6.6 0
2004-05-15 @ Aberdeen W 2-1 1714 1643 40.5% 25.1% 34.4% +6.6 12
2004-05-15 Hibernian W 4-1 1689 1706 42.0% 25.0% 33.0% +15.7 7
2004-05-15 @ Livingston L 1-4 1706 1689 33.0% 25.0% 42.0% -15.7 6
2004-05-15 Kilmarnock D 2-2 1614 1688 34.0% 25.1% 40.9% +0.2 8
2004-05-15 @ Partick Thistle D 2-2 1688 1614 40.9% 25.1% 34.0% -0.2 10
2004-05-16 Dundee United W 2-1 2111 1705 82.7% 12.1% 5.3% +1.0 8
2004-05-16 @ Celtic L 1-2 1705 2111 5.3% 12.1% 82.7% -1.0 7
2004-05-16 Motherwell W 3-2 1860 1701 63.1% 21.2% 15.7% +3.1 13
2004-05-16 @ Heart of Midlothian L 2-3 1701 1860 15.7% 21.2% 63.1% -3.1 1
2004-05-16 Rangers L 2-3 1748 1995 16.3% 21.6% 62.1% -3.2 6
2004-05-16 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 3-2 1995 1748 62.1% 21.6% 16.3% +3.2 7

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2004-04-21 4.31% Aberdeen 1689 2 @ Celtic 2138 1
2 2004-05-02 6.04% Dunfermline Athletic 1746 2 @ Celtic 2122 1
3 2004-02-29 10.13% @ Dundee United 1665 2 Rangers 2023 0
4 2003-12-14 12.94% @ Dunfermline Athletic 1741 2 Rangers 2042 0
5 2004-04-10 15.40% @ Partick Thistle 1584 1 Heart of Midlothian 1844 0
6 2004-05-12 15.69% Heart of Midlothian 1848 1 @ Rangers 2006 0
7 2003-11-30 19.62% @ Dundee United 1631 2 Heart of Midlothian 1835 1
8 2004-05-05 19.77% Partick Thistle 1603 2 @ Hibernian 1708 1
9 2003-12-06 20.65% Dunfermline Athletic 1731 2 @ Heart of Midlothian 1825 1
10 2003-12-27 20.95% @ Partick Thistle 1582 4 Dunfermline Athletic 1771 1
11 2003-09-13 21.03% Motherwell 1650 2 @ Hibernian 1740 0
12 2003-10-18 22.91% Dundee United 1633 1 @ Aberdeen 1703 0
13 2003-10-04 24.00% Aberdeen 1687 3 @ Kilmarnock 1746 1
14 2003-12-27 24.10% Dundee United 1654 2 @ Kilmarnock 1712 0
15 2003-08-17 24.94% Dunfermline Athletic 1706 2 @ Dundee 1756 0
16 2004-02-11 25.42% @ Partick Thistle 1589 5 Livingston 1733 2
17 2003-11-08 25.61% Motherwell 1708 1 @ Dundee 1752 0
18 2003-09-27 26.70% Livingston 1678 3 @ Aberdeen 1712 0
19 2003-12-20 26.79% Livingston 1704 3 @ Kilmarnock 1738 0
20 2003-08-23 28.00% @ Motherwell 1642 2 Kilmarnock 1763 1
21 2003-09-20 28.04% Dundee United 1631 2 @ Partick Thistle 1653 0
22 2003-10-18 28.13% Livingston 1703 2 @ Hibernian 1725 0
23 2004-05-08 28.56% Dundee United 1689 1 @ Motherwell 1707 0
24 2003-12-07 28.73% @ Partick Thistle 1590 1 Motherwell 1705 0
25 2004-03-24 29.09% Dundee United 1703 3 @ Livingston 1717 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-09-27 25.34 Livingston 3 1678 26.70% @ Aberdeen 0 1712 48.86% 24.44%
2 2003-12-20 25.29 Livingston 3 1704 26.79% @ Kilmarnock 0 1738 48.76% 24.45%
3 2004-02-29 24.16 @ Dundee United 2 1665 10.13% Rangers 0 2023 72.34% 17.54%
4 2003-12-27 23.91 @ Partick Thistle 4 1582 20.95% Dunfermline Athletic 1 1771 55.80% 23.25%
5 2003-11-01 23.60 Motherwell 3 1685 30.33% @ Aberdeen 0 1689 44.83% 24.84%
6 2004-05-12 23.14 @ Kilmarnock 4 1665 44.16% Aberdeen 0 1666 30.95% 24.89%
7 2003-12-14 22.88 @ Dunfermline Athletic 2 1741 12.94% Rangers 0 2042 67.38% 19.68%
8 2004-04-03 19.52 @ Aberdeen 3 1685 39.85% Dundee United 0 1718 35.06% 25.09%
9 2003-09-13 19.50 Motherwell 2 1650 21.03% @ Hibernian 0 1740 55.69% 23.27%
10 2003-08-09 19.26 Dundee 3 1737 40.46% @ Motherwell 0 1666 34.47% 25.08%
11 2003-12-13 19.25 Aberdeen 3 1670 40.48% @ Partick Thistle 0 1599 34.44% 25.08%
12 2004-02-11 18.97 @ Partick Thistle 5 1589 25.42% Livingston 2 1733 50.34% 24.24%
13 2003-12-27 18.35 Dundee United 2 1654 24.10% @ Kilmarnock 0 1712 51.90% 24.00%
14 2003-08-17 18.05 Dunfermline Athletic 2 1706 24.94% @ Dundee 0 1756 50.90% 24.16%
15 2004-04-24 17.84 @ Dunfermline Athletic 3 1728 43.85% Motherwell 0 1732 31.24% 24.91%
16 2003-09-20 16.99 Dundee United 2 1631 28.04% @ Partick Thistle 0 1653 47.34% 24.61%
17 2003-10-18 16.97 Livingston 2 1703 28.13% @ Hibernian 0 1725 47.25% 24.62%
18 2004-05-01 16.32 @ Partick Thistle 2 1587 30.13% Aberdeen 0 1690 45.04% 24.83%
19 2003-09-21 16.27 Rangers 4 2026 56.29% @ Heart of Midlothian 0 1833 20.57% 23.14%
20 2003-10-04 15.93 Aberdeen 3 1687 24.00% @ Kilmarnock 1 1746 52.02% 23.98%
21 2004-04-10 15.83 @ Hibernian 3 1699 48.55% Kilmarnock 0 1668 26.97% 24.48%
22 2004-01-24 15.81 Hibernian 2 1691 31.74% @ Kilmarnock 0 1683 43.31% 24.95%
23 2004-05-15 15.70 @ Livingston 4 1689 42.01% Hibernian 1 1706 32.97% 25.02%
24 2004-04-18 15.65 Motherwell 2 1716 32.24% @ Aberdeen 0 1705 42.78% 24.98%
25 2003-10-04 15.36 Motherwell 2 1667 33.19% @ Dundee United 0 1648 41.78% 25.03%