1902-03 Division One Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Hibernian

37 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Hibernian

7.13 points above expected

37 points · 29.87 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Port Glasgow Athletic

6.39 points below expected

11 points · 17.39 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Hibernian	22	16	5	1	37	48	18	+30	29.87	+7.13
2	Dundee	22	13	5	4	31	31	12	+19	25.18	+5.82
3	Rangers	22	12	5	5	29	56	30	+26	29.42	-0.42
4	Heart of Midlothian	22	11	6	5	28	46	27	+19	24.49	+3.51
5	Celtic	22	8	10	4	26	36	30	+6	27.02	-1.02
6	St. Mirren	22	7	8	7	22	39	40	-1	22.92	-0.92
7	Third Lanark	22	8	5	9	21	34	27	+7	23.86	-2.86
8	Partick Thistle	22	6	7	9	19	34	50	-16	13.85	+5.15
9	Kilmarnock	22	6	4	12	16	24	43	-19	17.11	-1.11
10	Queen's Park	22	5	5	12	15	33	48	-15	17.62	-2.62
11	Port Glasgow Athletic	22	3	5	14	11	26	49	-23	17.39	-6.39
12	Greenock Morton	22	2	5	15	9	22	55	-33	15.28	-6.28

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Hibernian	2177	37	29.87	+7.13	99.2%	16	24	28	30	32	35	43
Heart of Midlothian	2057	28	24.49	+3.51	86.9%	12	19	22	25	27	30	37
Rangers	2035	29	29.42	-0.42	50.2%	15	24	27	29	32	35	41
Dundee	2028	31	25.18	+5.82	95.8%	11	19	23	25	28	31	38
Third Lanark	1917	21	23.86	-2.86	25.7%	10	18	21	24	26	30	36
Celtic	1895	26	27.02	-1.02	43.4%	13	21	25	27	29	33	39
Partick Thistle	1797	19	13.85	+5.15	94.6%	2	8	11	14	16	20	28
St. Mirren	1793	22	22.92	-0.92	45.3%	9	17	20	23	25	29	35
Kilmarnock	1759	16	17.11	-1.11	43.8%	6	11	15	17	20	23	32
Queen's Park	1739	15	17.62	-2.62	28.6%	6	12	15	18	20	24	35
Port Glasgow Athletic	1695	11	17.39	-6.39	4.9%	5	12	15	17	20	23	31
Greenock Morton	1571	9	15.28	-6.28	4.4%	5	10	13	15	18	21	28

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	CEL	DUN	GM	HOM	HIB	KIL	PT	PGA	QP	RAN	SM	TL
Celtic	—	0-1-1 2.77	1-1-0 4.53	1-1-0 3.25	0-1-1 2.05	2-0-0 3.75	1-1-0 4.36	1-1-0 4.05	0-1-1 3.93	0-2-0 2.27	0-1-1 3.51	2-0-0 3.05
Dundee	1-1-0 2.67	—	2-0-0 3.96	1-0-1 2.76	0-0-2 2.09	2-0-0 3.71	2-0-0 4.34	1-1-0 3.55	1-1-0 3.57	1-1-0 1.89	1-0-1 3.05	1-1-0 3.17
Greenock Morton	0-1-1 0.97	0-0-2 1.50	—	1-0-1 1.70	0-0-2 0.74	0-0-2 2.79	0-2-0 3.33	1-0-1 2.65	0-0-2 2.17	0-0-2 1.29	0-1-1 1.93	0-1-1 0.94
Heart of Midlothian	0-1-1 2.19	1-0-1 2.68	1-0-1 3.79	—	0-2-0 1.74	1-1-0 4.14	1-1-0 4.06	2-0-0 3.98	2-0-0 3.65	1-0-1 1.87	0-1-1 2.68	2-0-0 2.94
Hibernian	1-1-0 3.39	2-0-0 3.35	2-0-0 4.79	0-2-0 3.71	—	2-0-0 3.88	1-1-0 4.72	2-0-0 3.69	2-0-0 4.28	2-0-0 2.64	1-1-0 3.76	1-0-1 3.71
Kilmarnock	0-0-2 1.70	0-0-2 1.74	2-0-0 2.65	0-1-1 1.33	0-0-2 1.60	—	1-0-1 3.50	2-0-0 2.88	1-1-0 2.56	0-1-1 1.00	0-0-2 1.92	0-1-1 1.79
Partick Thistle	0-1-1 1.12	0-0-2 1.14	0-2-0 2.11	0-1-1 1.41	0-1-1 0.80	1-0-1 1.95	—	2-0-0 2.43	1-0-1 2.77	0-0-2 1.13	1-1-0 1.45	1-1-0 1.50
Port Glasgow Athletic	0-1-1 1.41	0-1-1 1.90	1-0-1 2.79	0-0-2 1.47	0-0-2 1.80	0-0-2 2.56	0-0-2 3.02	—	1-1-0 2.32	0-0-2 1.69	1-1-0 1.89	0-1-1 2.25
Queen's Park	1-1-0 1.52	0-1-1 1.88	2-0-0 3.27	0-0-2 1.80	0-0-2 1.19	0-1-1 2.88	1-0-1 2.67	0-1-1 3.12	—	0-0-2 1.26	0-1-1 2.04	1-0-1 1.82
Rangers	0-2-0 3.18	0-1-1 3.55	2-0-0 4.17	1-0-1 3.58	0-0-2 2.80	1-1-0 4.49	2-0-0 4.35	2-0-0 3.77	2-0-0 4.23	—	1-1-0 3.70	1-0-1 3.27
St. Mirren	1-1-0 1.93	1-0-1 2.40	1-1-0 3.54	1-1-0 2.76	0-1-1 1.69	2-0-0 3.52	0-1-1 4.01	0-1-1 3.56	1-1-0 3.42	0-1-1 1.76	—	0-0-2 2.74
Third Lanark	0-0-2 2.39	0-1-1 2.27	1-1-0 4.56	0-0-2 2.50	1-0-1 1.75	1-1-0 3.66	0-1-1 3.96	1-1-0 3.19	1-0-1 3.63	1-0-1 2.18	2-0-0 2.70	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.59	+6.4
Allowed	0.81	-5.6
Differential	0.92	+3.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.30%	5.68%	4.92%	4.55%	2.27%	1.14%	23.86%
1	5.68%	11.36%	4.55%	4.17%	1.52%	0.76%	28.03%
2	4.92%	4.55%	8.33%	3.03%	2.65%	0.76%	24.24%
3	4.55%	4.17%	3.03%	1.52%	0.76%	—	14.02%
4	2.27%	1.52%	2.65%	0.76%	—	—	7.20%
5+	1.14%	0.76%	0.76%	—	—	—	2.65%
Total	23.86%	28.03%	24.24%	14.02%	7.20%	2.65%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.62	1.62	+0.00
SD	1.40	1.40	2.12
CV	0.86	0.86	—
Max	9	9	+9
Min	0	0	-9

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
1	4.55%	22.73%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	36.36%
2	4.55%	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	—	27.27%
3	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	45.45%	22.73%	9.09%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	1.36	+0.27
SD	1.09	1.05	1.64
CV	0.67	0.77	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
1	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
2	31.82%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	45.45%
3	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	59.09%	31.82%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.41	0.55	+0.86
SD	1.10	0.80	1.52
CV	0.78	1.47	—
Max	3	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	9.09%	18.18%	9.09%	—	45.45%
1	—	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	27.27%
2	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	13.64%
3	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	22.73%	22.73%	36.36%	18.18%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	2.50	-1.50
SD	1.20	1.06	1.54
CV	1.20	0.42	—
Max	4	4	+1
Min	0	1	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
1	4.55%	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
2	—	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
3	13.64%	13.64%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
4	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	27.27%	31.82%	31.82%	9.09%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.09	1.23	+0.86
SD	1.34	0.97	1.75
CV	0.64	0.79	—
Max	5	3	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
1	22.73%	13.64%	—	—	—	—	36.36%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
3	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
4	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
5+	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	40.91%	40.91%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.18	0.82	+1.36
SD	1.53	0.85	1.36
CV	0.70	1.04	—
Max	5	3	+4
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	13.64%	—	4.55%	4.55%	27.27%
1	13.64%	9.09%	9.09%	13.64%	4.55%	—	50.00%
2	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
3	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.73%	9.09%	36.36%	18.18%	9.09%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.09	1.95	-0.86
SD	1.02	1.43	1.86
CV	0.93	0.73	—
Max	4	5	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	13.64%	4.55%	—	4.55%	27.27%
1	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	—	22.73%
2	—	4.55%	13.64%	—	9.09%	—	27.27%
3	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	13.64%	36.36%	9.09%	18.18%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.55	2.27	-0.73
SD	1.30	2.00	2.62
CV	0.84	0.88	—
Max	4	9	+3
Min	0	0	-9

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	13.64%	—	18.18%	—	—	40.91%
1	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	9.09%	22.73%
2	—	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	18.18%
3	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	18.18%	18.18%	22.73%	13.64%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.18	2.23	-1.05
SD	1.26	1.60	2.03
CV	1.07	0.72	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	22.73%
1	—	13.64%	—	9.09%	—	—	22.73%
2	—	13.64%	4.55%	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	45.45%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	31.82%	13.64%	27.27%	13.64%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	2.18	-0.68
SD	1.14	1.40	1.99
CV	0.76	0.64	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
1	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
2	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	27.27%
3	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
4	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
5+	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	36.36%	22.73%	22.73%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.55	1.36	+1.18
SD	1.99	1.43	2.65
CV	0.78	1.05	—
Max	9	5	+9
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	13.64%
1	4.55%	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	31.82%
2	—	—	18.18%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
3	—	13.64%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	27.27%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	36.36%	36.36%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.77	1.82	-0.05
SD	1.15	1.33	1.96
CV	0.65	0.73	—
Max	4	6	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	36.36%
1	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
2	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
3	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	27.27%	31.82%	31.82%	9.09%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.55	1.23	+0.32
SD	1.74	0.97	2.10
CV	1.12	0.79	—
Max	6	3	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Hibernian	37	29.87	+7.13
2	Dundee	31	25.18	+5.82
3	Partick Thistle	19	13.85	+5.15
4	Heart of Midlothian	28	24.49	+3.51
5	Rangers	29	29.42	-0.42

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Port Glasgow Athletic	11	17.39	-6.39
2	Greenock Morton	9	15.28	-6.28
3	Third Lanark	21	23.86	-2.86
4	Queen's Park	15	17.62	-2.62
5	Kilmarnock	16	17.11	-1.11

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Partick Thistle	3	Jan 1 – Feb 28	1 in 104
2	Dundee	6	Aug 16 – Sep 20	1 in 94
3	Third Lanark	4	Dec 6 – Dec 27	1 in 19
4	Kilmarnock	2	Jan 31 – Feb 14	1 in 17
5	Heart of Midlothian	3	Oct 18 – Nov 1	1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Port Glasgow Athletic	5	Aug 23 – Sep 20	1 in 181
2	Queen's Park	6	Oct 18 – Nov 22	1 in 32
3	Dundee	3	Oct 11 – Oct 25	1 in 26
4	Greenock Morton	5	Nov 15 – Dec 13	1 in 15
5	St. Mirren	2	Nov 15 – Nov 22	1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dundee	11	Nov 1 – Apr 4	1 in 63
2	Partick Thistle	5	Sep 20 – Oct 18	1 in 49
3	Celtic	8	Aug 16 – Sep 29	1 in 16
4	Hibernian	15	Sep 27 – Jan 31	1 in 15
5	Rangers	8	Oct 4 – Nov 29	1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Celtic	7	Nov 29 – Mar 7	1 in 128
2	Rangers	4	Dec 20 – Jan 17	1 in 40
3	Greenock Morton	10	Aug 23 – Nov 1	1 in 34
4	Dundee	6	Sep 27 – Nov 1	1 in 18
5	Port Glasgow Athletic	9	Nov 22 – Mar 7	1 in 8

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Hibernian	41.62%	26.55%	14.37%	8.27%	5.00%	2.64%	1.13%	0.29%	0.10%	0.03%	—	—
Dundee	5.73%	11.17%	15.36%	18.42%	17.59%	13.74%	9.62%	4.86%	2.26%	0.80%	0.34%	0.11%
Rangers	33.98%	27.29%	17.03%	10.39%	6.12%	3.08%	1.49%	0.44%	0.10%	0.06%	0.02%	—
Heart of Midlothian	3.65%	8.43%	13.62%	16.50%	17.94%	17.09%	12.32%	6.07%	2.75%	1.06%	0.47%	0.10%
Celtic	10.87%	17.05%	20.80%	18.66%	13.68%	9.69%	5.79%	2.28%	0.84%	0.21%	0.12%	0.01%
St. Mirren	1.64%	3.45%	7.41%	10.62%	14.78%	18.77%	20.79%	11.39%	6.49%	2.93%	1.30%	0.43%
Third Lanark	2.40%	5.62%	10.12%	14.06%	18.04%	18.82%	15.53%	8.55%	4.26%	1.68%	0.67%	0.25%
Partick Thistle	—	0.01%	0.02%	0.08%	0.15%	0.74%	2.44%	5.41%	10.58%	16.21%	25.56%	38.80%
Kilmarnock	0.03%	0.08%	0.37%	0.87%	1.64%	4.07%	8.34%	16.49%	20.18%	19.41%	16.53%	11.99%
Queen's Park	0.05%	0.16%	0.43%	1.04%	2.48%	5.50%	10.03%	19.39%	19.52%	18.11%	14.16%	9.13%
Port Glasgow Athletic	0.03%	0.17%	0.39%	0.98%	2.12%	4.36%	8.98%	16.48%	19.22%	19.93%	16.43%	10.91%
Greenock Morton	—	0.02%	0.08%	0.11%	0.46%	1.50%	3.54%	8.35%	13.70%	19.57%	24.40%	28.27%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+15.91%

Clear Edge

44.70%26.52%28.79%

Elo Value

Home Edge

192 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

055.75500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.40 goals

Neutral

-2+0.29+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.3

Top-Heavy

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

42%

Hibernian, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.27/gm

Tight Race

00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.85 * Some Luck: 2.85 to 4.27 * Lucky: 4.27 to 5.7 * Wild Swing: 5.7 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.21 * Close: 1.21 to 1.82 * Off: 1.82 to 2.43 * Way Off: 2.43 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.30 points

Lucky

03.569

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.50

01.524

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

99.17%

Hibernian

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

4.43%

Greenock Morton

050

Season Outliers

Expected

4 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.21

Top-Heavy

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.81

Strong Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

83%

Wide Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 97%

97%

Dominant

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

55%

Very Frequent

0%52%100%

Blowouts

Expected

22%

Frequent

0%24%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.57

Predictable

00.582

Matchup Imbalance

0.46

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.49

Chaotic

01.002

Repeatability

0.62

Strong Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

20%

Chalky

0%20%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

16%

As Expected

0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.

Probability calibration

1.00

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.20

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.066

Well Within Noise

00.1480.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level
Celtic	100%
Dundee	100%
Greenock Morton	100%
Heart of Midlothian	100%
Hibernian	100%
Kilmarnock	100%
Partick Thistle	100%
Port Glasgow Athletic	100%
Queen's Park	100%
Rangers	100%
St. Mirren	100%
Third Lanark	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1902-08-16	Queen's Park	W 2-0	1844	1848	46.6%	28.1%	25.4%	+27.2	2
1902-08-16	@ Dundee	L 0-2	1848	1844	25.4%	28.1%	46.6%	-27.2	0
1902-08-16	Heart of Midlothian	W 3-2	1836	1913	37.0%	28.1%	34.9%	+16.3	2
1902-08-16	@ Greenock Morton	L 2-3	1913	1836	34.9%	28.1%	37.0%	-16.3	0
1902-08-16	Celtic	D 1-1	1934	1930	47.5%	28.0%	24.5%	-2.4	1
1902-08-16	@ Hibernian	D 1-1	1930	1934	24.5%	28.0%	47.5%	+2.4	1
1902-08-16	Kilmarnock	W 2-1	1684	1863	23.7%	27.7%	48.5%	+22.3	2
1902-08-16	@ Partick Thistle	L 1-2	1863	1684	48.5%	27.7%	23.7%	-22.3	0
1902-08-16	Port Glasgow Athletic	D 2-2	1888	1881	47.8%	28.0%	24.1%	-1.8	1
1902-08-16	@ St. Mirren	D 2-2	1881	1888	24.1%	28.0%	47.8%	+1.8	1
1902-08-16	Rangers	W 4-2	1886	1956	37.9%	28.1%	34.0%	+26.1	2
1902-08-16	@ Third Lanark	L 2-4	1956	1886	34.0%	28.1%	37.9%	-26.1	0
1902-08-23	St. Mirren	D 2-2	1932	1886	52.1%	27.9%	20.0%	-2.6	2
1902-08-23	@ Celtic	D 2-2	1886	1932	20.0%	27.9%	52.1%	+2.6	2
1902-08-23	Dundee	L 0-2	1896	1871	49.9%	28.0%	22.2%	-45.8	0
1902-08-23	@ Heart of Midlothian	W 2-0	1871	1896	22.2%	28.0%	49.9%	+45.8	4
1902-08-23	Greenock Morton	W 4-2	1841	1852	45.6%	28.1%	26.4%	+21.7	2
1902-08-23	@ Kilmarnock	L 2-4	1852	1841	26.4%	28.1%	45.6%	-21.7	2
1902-08-23	Hibernian	L 0-1	1883	1932	40.8%	28.1%	31.1%	-20.5	1
1902-08-23	@ Port Glasgow Athletic	W 1-0	1932	1883	31.1%	28.1%	40.8%	+20.5	3
1902-08-23	Third Lanark	W 2-1	1821	1912	34.8%	28.1%	37.1%	+18.0	2
1902-08-23	@ Queen's Park	L 1-2	1912	1821	37.1%	28.1%	34.8%	-18.0	2
1902-08-23	Partick Thistle	W 9-0	1930	1706	65.7%	26.2%	8.0%	+41.8	2
1902-08-23	@ Rangers	L 0-9	1706	1930	8.0%	26.2%	65.7%	-41.8	2
1902-08-30	Kilmarnock	W 2-0	1917	1862	53.0%	27.8%	19.2%	+21.8	6
1902-08-30	@ Dundee	L 0-2	1862	1917	19.2%	27.8%	53.0%	-21.8	2
1902-08-30	Queen's Park	W 3-2	1952	1839	58.4%	27.4%	14.2%	+8.1	5
1902-08-30	@ Hibernian	L 2-3	1839	1952	14.2%	27.4%	58.4%	-8.1	2
1902-08-30	Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1664	1831	25.1%	27.8%	47.0%	+2.2	3
1902-08-30	@ Partick Thistle	D 1-1	1831	1664	47.0%	27.8%	25.1%	-2.3	3
1902-08-30	Rangers	L 0-3	1862	1972	32.4%	28.0%	39.6%	-47.3	1
1902-08-30	@ Port Glasgow Athletic	W 3-0	1972	1862	39.6%	28.0%	32.4%	+47.3	4
1902-08-30	Heart of Midlothian	D 1-1	1889	1850	51.3%	27.9%	20.8%	-3.2	3
1902-08-30	@ St. Mirren	D 1-1	1850	1889	20.8%	27.9%	51.3%	+3.2	1
1902-08-30	Celtic	L 1-2	1894	1930	42.6%	28.1%	29.3%	-20.0	2
1902-08-30	@ Third Lanark	W 2-1	1930	1894	29.3%	28.1%	42.6%	+20.0	4
1902-09-06	Queen's Park	D 1-1	1950	1830	58.8%	27.4%	13.8%	-5.1	5
1902-09-06	@ Celtic	D 1-1	1830	1950	13.8%	27.4%	58.8%	+5.1	3
1902-09-06	St. Mirren	L 2-3	1829	1886	39.7%	28.1%	32.2%	-17.9	3
1902-09-06	@ Greenock Morton	W 3-2	1886	1829	32.2%	28.1%	39.7%	+17.9	5
1902-09-06	Rangers	W 2-1	1854	2019	25.3%	27.8%	46.9%	+21.6	3
1902-09-06	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-2	2019	1854	46.9%	27.8%	25.3%	-21.6	4
1902-09-06	Hibernian	L 1-4	1840	1960	31.0%	28.0%	41.0%	-38.6	2
1902-09-06	@ Kilmarnock	W 4-1	1960	1840	41.0%	28.0%	31.0%	+38.6	7
1902-09-06	Dundee	L 0-2	1666	1939	15.0%	27.0%	58.0%	-17.7	3
1902-09-06	@ Partick Thistle	W 2-0	1939	1666	58.0%	27.0%	15.0%	+17.7	8
1902-09-06	Port Glasgow Athletic	W 5-1	1874	1815	53.5%	27.8%	18.8%	+33.9	4
1902-09-06	@ Third Lanark	L 1-5	1815	1874	18.8%	27.8%	53.5%	-33.9	1
1902-09-13	Port Glasgow Athletic	W 2-1	1957	1781	62.9%	26.8%	10.3%	+6.5	10
1902-09-13	@ Dundee	L 1-2	1781	1957	10.3%	26.8%	62.9%	-6.5	1
1902-09-13	Kilmarnock	L 0-1	1811	1802	48.0%	28.0%	24.0%	-23.5	3
1902-09-13	@ Greenock Morton	W 1-0	1802	1811	24.0%	28.0%	48.0%	+23.5	4
1902-09-13	Heart of Midlothian	D 0-0	1999	1875	59.2%	27.3%	13.5%	-5.8	8
1902-09-13	@ Hibernian	D 0-0	1875	1999	13.5%	27.3%	59.2%	+5.8	4
1902-09-15	Celtic	L 1-2	1881	1945	38.8%	28.1%	33.1%	-18.6	4
1902-09-15	@ Heart of Midlothian	W 2-1	1945	1881	33.1%	28.1%	38.8%	+18.6	7
1902-09-15	Rangers	W 1-0	1993	1997	46.5%	28.1%	25.4%	+14.5	10
1902-09-15	@ Hibernian	L 0-1	1997	1993	25.4%	28.1%	46.5%	-14.4	4
1902-09-20	St. Mirren	W 2-1	1963	1903	53.5%	27.8%	18.7%	+10.7	12
1902-09-20	@ Dundee	L 1-2	1903	1963	18.7%	27.8%	53.5%	-10.7	5
1902-09-20	Queen's Park	W 4-0	1862	1835	50.1%	27.9%	21.9%	+46.1	6
1902-09-20	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-4	1835	1862	21.9%	27.9%	50.1%	-46.1	3
1902-09-20	Celtic	L 1-3	1825	1963	28.6%	28.0%	43.4%	-25.7	4
1902-09-20	@ Kilmarnock	W 3-1	1963	1825	43.4%	28.0%	28.6%	+25.7	9
1902-09-20	Partick Thistle	L 0-3	1775	1649	59.4%	27.3%	13.4%	-78.6	1
1902-09-20	@ Port Glasgow Athletic	W 3-0	1649	1775	13.4%	27.3%	59.4%	+78.6	5
1902-09-20	Greenock Morton	W 4-1	1983	1787	64.1%	26.6%	9.3%	+14.4	6
1902-09-20	@ Rangers	L 1-4	1787	1983	9.3%	26.6%	64.1%	-14.4	3
1902-09-20	Hibernian	W 1-0	1908	2007	33.7%	28.1%	38.2%	+19.5	6
1902-09-20	@ Third Lanark	L 0-1	2007	1908	38.2%	28.1%	33.7%	-19.5	10
1902-09-27	Third Lanark	W 1-0	1989	1928	53.7%	27.8%	18.6%	+11.3	11
1902-09-27	@ Celtic	L 0-1	1928	1989	18.6%	27.8%	53.7%	-11.3	6
1902-09-27	Dundee	W 1-0	1988	1974	48.7%	28.0%	23.3%	+13.5	12
1902-09-27	@ Hibernian	L 0-1	1974	1988	23.3%	28.0%	48.7%	-13.5	12
1902-09-27	Heart of Midlothian	D 2-2	1727	1909	23.5%	27.7%	48.8%	+2.0	6
1902-09-27	@ Partick Thistle	D 2-2	1909	1727	48.8%	27.7%	23.5%	-2.0	7
1902-09-27	Greenock Morton	W 3-0	1696	1773	37.0%	28.1%	34.9%	+50.0	3
1902-09-27	@ Port Glasgow Athletic	L 0-3	1773	1696	34.9%	28.1%	37.0%	-50.0	3
1902-09-27	Rangers	L 0-2	1789	1997	20.7%	27.5%	51.8%	-23.1	3
1902-09-27	@ Queen's Park	W 2-0	1997	1789	51.8%	27.5%	20.7%	+23.1	8
1902-09-27	Kilmarnock	W 4-0	1893	1800	56.6%	27.6%	15.8%	+35.4	7
1902-09-27	@ St. Mirren	L 0-4	1800	1893	15.8%	27.6%	56.6%	-35.4	4
1902-09-29	Heart of Midlothian	D 2-2	2000	1907	56.7%	27.6%	15.8%	-3.4	12
1902-09-29	@ Celtic	D 2-2	1907	2000	15.8%	27.6%	56.7%	+3.4	8
1902-09-29	Hibernian	L 2-5	2020	2002	49.2%	28.0%	22.8%	-47.9	8
1902-09-29	@ Rangers	W 5-2	2002	2020	22.8%	28.0%	49.2%	+47.9	14
1902-09-29	Partick Thistle	D 1-1	1916	1729	63.6%	26.7%	9.7%	-6.3	7
1902-09-29	@ Third Lanark	D 1-1	1729	1916	9.7%	26.7%	63.6%	+6.3	7
1902-10-04	Third Lanark	D 0-0	1960	1910	52.6%	27.8%	19.6%	-4.0	13
1902-10-04	@ Dundee	D 0-0	1910	1960	19.6%	27.8%	52.6%	+4.0	8
1902-10-04	Partick Thistle	D 3-3	1723	1736	45.5%	28.1%	26.5%	-1.2	4
1902-10-04	@ Greenock Morton	D 3-3	1736	1723	26.5%	28.1%	45.5%	+1.2	8
1902-10-04	St. Mirren	W 4-3	2049	1928	59.0%	27.3%	13.7%	+7.7	16
1902-10-04	@ Hibernian	L 3-4	1928	2049	13.7%	27.3%	59.0%	-7.7	7
1902-10-04	Port Glasgow Athletic	W 1-0	1764	1746	49.1%	28.0%	22.9%	+13.3	6
1902-10-04	@ Kilmarnock	L 0-1	1746	1764	22.9%	28.0%	49.1%	-13.3	3
1902-10-04	Celtic	W 2-1	1766	1997	18.5%	27.4%	54.1%	+24.6	5
1902-10-04	@ Queen's Park	L 1-2	1997	1766	54.1%	27.4%	18.5%	-24.6	12
1902-10-04	Heart of Midlothian	W 2-1	1972	1910	53.8%	27.8%	18.5%	+10.6	10
1902-10-04	@ Rangers	L 1-2	1910	1972	18.5%	27.8%	53.8%	-10.6	8
1902-10-11	Rangers	L 0-4	1722	1983	15.9%	27.1%	57.0%	-35.2	4
1902-10-11	@ Greenock Morton	W 4-0	1983	1722	57.0%	27.1%	15.9%	+35.2	12
1902-10-11	Hibernian	D 1-1	1899	2057	26.2%	27.9%	46.0%	+2.0	9
1902-10-11	@ Heart of Midlothian	D 1-1	2057	1899	46.0%	27.9%	26.2%	-2.0	17
1902-10-11	Queen's Park	D 1-1	1778	1791	45.4%	28.1%	26.5%	-1.9	7
1902-10-11	@ Kilmarnock	D 1-1	1791	1778	26.5%	28.1%	45.4%	+1.9	6
1902-10-11	Dundee	W 1-0	1921	1956	42.5%	28.1%	29.4%	+16.1	9
1902-10-11	@ St. Mirren	L 0-1	1956	1921	29.4%	28.1%	42.5%	-16.1	13
1902-10-18	Rangers	D 1-1	1972	2018	41.2%	28.1%	30.7%	-1.0	13
1902-10-18	@ Celtic	D 1-1	2018	1972	30.7%	28.1%	41.2%	+1.0	13
1902-10-18	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-1	1940	1901	51.4%	27.9%	20.7%	-24.9	13
1902-10-18	@ Dundee	W 1-0	1901	1940	20.7%	27.9%	51.4%	+24.9	11
1902-10-18	Greenock Morton	W 3-1	2055	1686	72.2%	24.0%	3.8%	+4.2	19
1902-10-18	@ Hibernian	L 1-3	1686	2055	3.8%	24.0%	72.2%	-4.2	4
1902-10-18	St. Mirren	D 2-2	1737	1937	21.5%	27.6%	50.9%	+2.3	9
1902-10-18	@ Partick Thistle	D 2-2	1937	1737	50.9%	27.6%	21.5%	-2.3	10
1902-10-18	Queen's Park	W 4-0	1733	1793	39.3%	28.1%	32.6%	+62.1	5
1902-10-18	@ Port Glasgow Athletic	L 0-4	1793	1733	32.6%	28.1%	39.3%	-62.1	6
1902-10-18	Kilmarnock	W 2-0	1914	1776	60.3%	27.2%	12.5%	+15.3	10
1902-10-18	@ Third Lanark	L 0-2	1776	1914	12.5%	27.2%	60.3%	-15.3	7
1902-10-25	Hibernian	L 0-3	1915	2059	27.9%	27.9%	44.2%	-42.2	13
1902-10-25	@ Dundee	W 3-0	2059	1915	44.2%	27.9%	27.9%	+42.2	21
1902-10-25	Port Glasgow Athletic	W 3-1	1926	1795	59.8%	27.3%	13.0%	+13.7	13
1902-10-25	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-3	1795	1926	13.0%	27.3%	59.8%	-13.7	5
1902-10-25	Partick Thistle	W 2-0	1760	1739	49.5%	28.0%	22.6%	+24.8	9
1902-10-25	@ Kilmarnock	L 0-2	1739	1760	22.6%	28.0%	49.5%	-24.8	9
1902-10-25	Queen's Park	W 3-1	1934	1731	64.6%	26.5%	8.9%	+9.8	12
1902-10-25	@ St. Mirren	L 1-3	1731	1934	8.9%	26.5%	64.6%	-9.8	6
1902-11-01	Kilmarnock	W 3-1	1971	1785	63.5%	26.7%	9.8%	+10.6	15
1902-11-01	@ Celtic	L 1-3	1785	1971	9.8%	26.7%	63.5%	-10.6	9
1902-11-01	Partick Thistle	D 2-2	2102	1714	72.8%	23.7%	3.5%	-6.3	22
1902-11-01	@ Hibernian	D 2-2	1714	2102	3.5%	23.7%	72.8%	+6.3	10
1902-11-01	Dundee	D 0-0	1781	1873	34.8%	28.1%	37.1%	+0.2	6
1902-11-01	@ Port Glasgow Athletic	D 0-0	1873	1781	37.1%	28.1%	34.8%	-0.2	14
1902-11-01	Heart of Midlothian	L 2-5	1721	1940	19.6%	27.5%	53.0%	-23.4	6
1902-11-01	@ Queen's Park	W 5-2	1940	1721	53.0%	27.5%	19.6%	+23.4	15
1902-11-01	Third Lanark	W 2-0	2019	1929	56.3%	27.6%	16.1%	+18.9	15
1902-11-01	@ Rangers	L 0-2	1929	2019	16.1%	27.6%	56.3%	-18.9	10
1902-11-01	Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1944	1682	67.7%	25.7%	6.6%	-7.3	13
1902-11-01	@ St. Mirren	D 1-1	1682	1944	6.6%	25.7%	67.7%	+7.3	5
1902-11-08	Port Glasgow Athletic	W 4-3	1689	1782	34.7%	28.1%	37.2%	+16.7	7
1902-11-08	@ Greenock Morton	L 3-4	1782	1689	37.2%	28.1%	34.7%	-16.7	6
1902-11-08	St. Mirren	L 1-3	1963	1937	50.1%	27.9%	22.0%	-39.8	15
1902-11-08	@ Heart of Midlothian	W 3-1	1937	1963	22.0%	27.9%	50.1%	+39.8	15
1902-11-08	Third Lanark	D 2-2	1775	1910	28.9%	28.0%	43.2%	+1.1	10
1902-11-08	@ Kilmarnock	D 2-2	1910	1775	43.2%	28.0%	28.9%	-1.1	11
1902-11-08	Rangers	L 2-4	1720	2038	12.0%	26.5%	61.6%	-11.2	10
1902-11-08	@ Partick Thistle	W 4-2	2038	1720	61.6%	26.5%	12.0%	+11.2	17
1902-11-08	Hibernian	L 1-3	1697	2095	7.9%	25.4%	66.7%	-8.6	6
1902-11-08	@ Queen's Park	W 3-1	2095	1697	66.7%	25.4%	7.9%	+8.6	24
1902-11-15	Partick Thistle	W 4-1	1982	1709	68.2%	25.6%	6.2%	+9.8	17
1902-11-15	@ Celtic	L 1-4	1709	1982	6.2%	25.6%	68.2%	-9.8	10
1902-11-15	Greenock Morton	W 3-0	1873	1706	62.3%	26.9%	10.8%	+19.5	16
1902-11-15	@ Dundee	L 0-3	1706	1873	10.8%	26.9%	62.3%	-19.5	7
1902-11-15	Kilmarnock	W 2-1	2104	1776	70.6%	24.7%	4.7%	+3.0	26
1902-11-15	@ Hibernian	L 1-2	1776	2104	4.7%	24.7%	70.6%	-3.0	10
1902-11-15	St. Mirren	W 3-2	1765	1977	20.3%	27.5%	52.2%	+22.5	8
1902-11-15	@ Port Glasgow Athletic	L 2-3	1977	1765	52.2%	27.5%	20.3%	-22.5	15
1902-11-15	Queen's Park	W 3-2	2049	1689	71.9%	24.2%	4.0%	+2.4	19
1902-11-15	@ Rangers	L 2-3	1689	2049	4.0%	24.2%	71.9%	-2.4	6
1902-11-15	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-3	1909	1924	45.3%	28.1%	26.7%	-61.1	11
1902-11-15	@ Third Lanark	W 3-0	1924	1909	26.7%	28.1%	45.3%	+61.1	17
1902-11-22	Port Glasgow Athletic	W 3-0	1992	1787	64.6%	26.5%	8.9%	+16.4	19
1902-11-22	@ Celtic	L 0-3	1787	1992	8.9%	26.5%	64.6%	-16.4	8
1902-11-22	Dundee	L 0-2	1687	1892	20.9%	27.6%	51.5%	-23.3	7
1902-11-22	@ Greenock Morton	W 2-0	1892	1687	51.5%	27.6%	20.9%	+23.3	18
1902-11-22	Third Lanark	W 1-0	2107	1848	67.5%	25.8%	6.7%	+4.6	28
1902-11-22	@ Hibernian	L 0-1	1848	2107	6.7%	25.8%	67.5%	-4.6	11
1902-11-22	Heart of Midlothian	L 1-3	1773	1985	20.3%	27.5%	52.2%	-19.7	10
1902-11-22	@ Kilmarnock	W 3-1	1985	1773	52.2%	27.5%	20.3%	+19.7	19
1902-11-22	Queen's Park	W 4-2	1699	1686	48.5%	28.0%	23.5%	+19.8	12
1902-11-22	@ Partick Thistle	L 2-4	1686	1699	23.5%	28.0%	48.5%	-19.8	6
1902-11-22	Rangers	L 0-1	1954	2052	34.0%	28.1%	38.0%	-17.9	15
1902-11-22	@ St. Mirren	W 1-0	2052	1954	38.0%	28.1%	34.0%	+17.9	21
1902-11-29	Dundee	D 2-2	2008	1916	56.6%	27.6%	15.9%	-3.4	20
1902-11-29	@ Celtic	D 2-2	1916	2008	15.9%	27.6%	56.6%	+3.4	19
1902-11-29	Partick Thistle	W 4-2	2004	1719	68.8%	25.4%	5.8%	+5.8	21
1902-11-29	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 2-4	1719	2004	5.8%	25.4%	68.8%	-5.8	12
1902-11-29	Third Lanark	D 0-0	1771	1844	37.5%	28.1%	34.4%	-0.3	9
1902-11-29	@ Port Glasgow Athletic	D 0-0	1844	1771	34.4%	28.1%	37.5%	+0.3	12
1902-11-29	Greenock Morton	W 4-0	1667	1663	47.4%	28.0%	24.6%	+50.3	8
1902-11-29	@ Queen's Park	L 0-4	1663	1667	24.6%	28.0%	47.4%	-50.3	7
1902-11-29	Kilmarnock	W 5-0	2070	1753	70.1%	24.9%	5.0%	+14.9	23
1902-11-29	@ Rangers	L 0-5	1753	2070	5.0%	24.9%	70.1%	-14.9	10
1902-11-29	Hibernian	D 1-1	1936	2111	24.1%	27.8%	48.1%	+2.5	16
1902-11-29	@ St. Mirren	D 1-1	2111	1936	48.1%	27.8%	24.1%	-2.5	29
1902-12-06	Rangers	W 3-1	1919	2085	25.2%	27.8%	46.9%	+37.5	21
1902-12-06	@ Dundee	L 1-3	2085	1919	46.9%	27.8%	25.2%	-37.5	23
1902-12-06	Hibernian	L 0-1	1613	2109	4.8%	23.8%	71.4%	-3.2	7
1902-12-06	@ Greenock Morton	W 1-0	2109	1613	71.4%	23.8%	4.8%	+3.2	31
1902-12-06	Kilmarnock	D 1-1	2010	1738	68.2%	25.6%	6.2%	-7.4	22
1902-12-06	@ Heart of Midlothian	D 1-1	1738	2010	6.2%	25.6%	68.2%	+7.4	11
1902-12-06	Celtic	D 0-0	1713	2005	13.7%	26.8%	59.5%	+5.8	13
1902-12-06	@ Partick Thistle	D 0-0	2005	1713	59.5%	26.8%	13.7%	-5.8	21
1902-12-06	St. Mirren	W 6-0	1844	1939	34.4%	28.1%	37.5%	+100.7	14
1902-12-06	@ Third Lanark	L 0-6	1939	1844	37.5%	28.1%	34.4%	-100.7	16
1902-12-13	Third Lanark	L 0-3	1610	1945	11.0%	26.2%	62.8%	-19.4	7
1902-12-13	@ Greenock Morton	W 3-0	1945	1610	62.8%	26.2%	11.0%	+19.4	16
1902-12-13	Dundee	L 0-2	1745	1956	20.4%	27.5%	52.1%	-22.8	11
1902-12-13	@ Kilmarnock	W 2-0	1956	1745	52.1%	27.5%	20.4%	+22.8	23
1902-12-13	Partick Thistle	W 4-1	1717	1719	46.7%	28.0%	25.2%	+33.1	10
1902-12-13	@ Queen's Park	L 1-4	1719	1717	25.2%	28.0%	46.7%	-33.1	13
1902-12-13	Port Glasgow Athletic	W 4-2	2047	1771	68.4%	25.5%	6.1%	+6.1	25
1902-12-13	@ Rangers	L 2-4	1771	2047	6.1%	25.5%	68.4%	-6.1	9
1902-12-13	Celtic	W 3-1	1838	1999	25.8%	27.8%	46.4%	+37.1	18
1902-12-13	@ St. Mirren	L 1-3	1999	1838	46.4%	27.8%	25.8%	-37.1	21
1902-12-20	Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1962	1590	72.3%	24.0%	3.8%	-8.3	22
1902-12-20	@ Celtic	D 1-1	1590	1962	3.8%	24.0%	72.3%	+8.3	8
1902-12-20	Rangers	D 0-0	1723	2053	11.2%	26.3%	62.5%	+6.6	12
1902-12-20	@ Kilmarnock	D 0-0	2053	1723	62.5%	26.3%	11.2%	-6.6	26
1902-12-20	Hibernian	L 0-2	1686	2112	6.9%	24.9%	68.2%	-8.6	13
1902-12-20	@ Partick Thistle	W 2-0	2112	1686	68.2%	24.9%	6.9%	+8.6	33
1902-12-20	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-3	1765	2003	17.8%	27.3%	54.9%	-29.7	9
1902-12-20	@ Port Glasgow Athletic	W 3-0	2003	1765	54.9%	27.3%	17.8%	+29.7	24
1902-12-20	Dundee	D 0-0	1750	1979	18.7%	27.4%	54.0%	+4.3	11
1902-12-20	@ Queen's Park	D 0-0	1979	1750	54.0%	27.4%	18.7%	-4.3	24
1902-12-20	Third Lanark	L 1-2	1875	1964	35.2%	28.1%	36.8%	-17.3	18
1902-12-20	@ St. Mirren	W 2-1	1964	1875	36.8%	28.1%	35.2%	+17.3	18
1902-12-27	Partick Thistle	W 3-0	1975	1678	69.3%	25.2%	5.5%	+10.2	26
1902-12-27	@ Dundee	L 0-3	1678	1975	5.5%	25.2%	69.3%	-10.2	13
1902-12-27	Greenock Morton	W 3-0	2033	1599	74.4%	22.9%	2.7%	+4.9	26
1902-12-27	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-3	1599	2033	2.7%	22.9%	74.4%	-4.9	8
1902-12-27	St. Mirren	L 2-3	1729	1858	29.8%	28.0%	42.2%	-14.5	12
1902-12-27	@ Kilmarnock	W 3-2	1858	1729	42.2%	28.0%	29.8%	+14.5	20
1902-12-27	Queen's Park	W 3-2	1981	1754	65.9%	26.2%	7.9%	+4.8	20
1902-12-27	@ Third Lanark	L 2-3	1754	1981	7.9%	26.2%	65.9%	-4.8	11
1903-01-01	Celtic	D 3-3	2047	1953	56.6%	27.6%	15.8%	-2.8	27
1903-01-01	@ Rangers	D 3-3	1953	2047	15.8%	27.6%	56.6%	+2.8	23
1903-01-01	Partick Thistle	L 0-3	1872	1667	64.7%	26.5%	8.9%	-85.8	20
1903-01-01	@ St. Mirren	W 3-0	1667	1872	8.9%	26.5%	64.7%	+85.8	15
1903-01-02	Hibernian	L 0-4	1956	2121	25.4%	27.8%	46.8%	-51.4	23
1903-01-02	@ Celtic	W 4-0	2121	1956	46.8%	27.8%	25.4%	+51.4	35
1903-01-03	Third Lanark	W 3-1	2037	1986	52.7%	27.8%	19.5%	+19.2	28
1903-01-03	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-3	1986	2037	19.5%	27.8%	52.7%	-19.2	20
1903-01-03	Port Glasgow Athletic	W 4-2	1753	1735	49.1%	28.0%	22.9%	+19.5	17
1903-01-03	@ Partick Thistle	L 2-4	1735	1753	22.9%	28.0%	49.1%	-19.5	9
1903-01-03	St. Mirren	D 2-2	2044	1786	67.5%	25.8%	6.8%	-5.4	28
1903-01-03	@ Rangers	D 2-2	1786	2044	6.8%	25.8%	67.5%	+5.4	21
1903-01-17	Dundee	D 1-1	2038	1985	52.9%	27.8%	19.3%	-3.6	29
1903-01-17	@ Rangers	D 1-1	1985	2038	19.3%	27.8%	52.9%	+3.6	27
1903-01-31	Port Glasgow Athletic	W 5-1	2172	1715	75.1%	22.4%	2.4%	+4.7	37
1903-01-31	@ Hibernian	L 1-5	1715	2172	2.4%	22.4%	75.1%	-4.7	9
1903-01-31	Kilmarnock	L 2-3	1750	1715	51.0%	27.9%	21.1%	-22.1	11
1903-01-31	@ Queen's Park	W 3-2	1715	1750	21.1%	27.9%	51.0%	+22.1	14
1903-02-14	Queen's Park	L 1-2	1594	1727	29.1%	28.0%	42.9%	-15.0	8
1903-02-14	@ Greenock Morton	W 2-1	1727	1594	42.9%	28.0%	29.1%	+15.1	13
1903-02-14	Kilmarnock	L 0-1	1711	1737	43.8%	28.1%	28.1%	-21.7	9
1903-02-14	@ Port Glasgow Athletic	W 1-0	1737	1711	28.1%	28.1%	43.8%	+21.7	16
1903-02-21	St. Mirren	D 1-1	1742	1792	40.7%	28.1%	31.2%	-1.0	14
1903-02-21	@ Queen's Park	D 1-1	1792	1742	31.2%	28.1%	40.7%	+0.9	22
1903-02-28	Third Lanark	W 1-0	1773	1967	22.1%	27.6%	50.3%	+24.4	19
1903-02-28	@ Partick Thistle	L 0-1	1967	1773	50.3%	27.6%	22.1%	-24.4	20
1903-02-28	Port Glasgow Athletic	D 2-2	1742	1689	52.8%	27.8%	19.4%	-2.7	15
1903-02-28	@ Queen's Park	D 2-2	1689	1742	19.4%	27.8%	52.8%	+2.7	10
1903-03-07	Celtic	D 1-1	1692	1905	20.2%	27.5%	52.3%	+3.4	11
1903-03-07	@ Port Glasgow Athletic	D 1-1	1905	1692	52.3%	27.5%	20.2%	-3.4	24
1903-03-14	Celtic	L 0-2	1579	1901	11.7%	26.4%	61.9%	-14.2	8
1903-03-14	@ Greenock Morton	W 2-0	1901	1579	61.9%	26.4%	11.7%	+14.2	26
1903-03-21	Celtic	W 2-0	1989	1916	54.8%	27.7%	17.5%	+20.3	29
1903-03-21	@ Dundee	L 0-2	1916	1989	17.5%	27.7%	54.8%	-20.3	26
1903-03-28	Greenock Morton	D 2-2	1943	1564	72.5%	23.9%	3.6%	-6.2	21
1903-03-28	@ Third Lanark	D 2-2	1564	1943	3.6%	23.9%	72.5%	+6.2	9
1903-04-04	Dundee	L 0-1	1936	2009	37.5%	28.1%	34.4%	-19.2	21
1903-04-04	@ Third Lanark	W 1-0	2009	1936	34.4%	28.1%	37.5%	+19.2	31

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1903-01-01	8.86%	Partick Thistle	1667	3	@ St. Mirren	1872	0
2	1902-09-20	13.35%	Partick Thistle	1649	3	@ Port Glasgow Athletic	1775	0
3	1902-10-04	18.54%	@ Queen's Park	1766	2	Celtic	1997	1
4	1902-11-15	20.32%	@ Port Glasgow Athletic	1765	3	St. Mirren	1977	2
5	1902-10-18	20.73%	Heart of Midlothian	1901	1	@ Dundee	1940	0
6	1903-01-31	21.13%	Kilmarnock	1715	3	@ Queen's Park	1750	2
7	1902-11-08	21.98%	St. Mirren	1937	3	@ Heart of Midlothian	1963	1
8	1903-02-28	22.06%	@ Partick Thistle	1773	1	Third Lanark	1967	0
9	1902-08-23	22.17%	Dundee	1871	2	@ Heart of Midlothian	1896	0
10	1902-09-29	22.84%	Hibernian	2002	5	@ Rangers	2020	2
11	1902-08-16	23.72%	@ Partick Thistle	1684	2	Kilmarnock	1863	1
12	1902-09-13	23.96%	Kilmarnock	1802	1	@ Greenock Morton	1811	0
13	1902-12-06	25.25%	@ Dundee	1919	3	Rangers	2085	1
14	1902-09-06	25.31%	@ Heart of Midlothian	1854	2	Rangers	2019	1
15	1902-12-13	25.81%	@ St. Mirren	1838	3	Celtic	1999	1
16	1902-11-15	26.67%	Heart of Midlothian	1924	3	@ Third Lanark	1909	0
17	1903-02-14	28.13%	Kilmarnock	1737	1	@ Port Glasgow Athletic	1711	0
18	1902-08-30	29.31%	Celtic	1930	2	@ Third Lanark	1894	1
19	1902-08-23	31.08%	Hibernian	1932	1	@ Port Glasgow Athletic	1883	0
20	1902-09-06	32.20%	St. Mirren	1886	3	@ Greenock Morton	1829	2
21	1902-09-15	33.10%	Celtic	1945	2	@ Heart of Midlothian	1881	1
22	1902-09-20	33.74%	@ Third Lanark	1908	1	Hibernian	2007	0
23	1903-04-04	34.38%	Dundee	2009	1	@ Third Lanark	1936	0
24	1902-12-06	34.41%	@ Third Lanark	1844	6	St. Mirren	1939	0
25	1902-11-08	34.74%	@ Greenock Morton	1689	4	Port Glasgow Athletic	1782	3

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1902-12-06	100.66	@ Third Lanark	6	1844	34.41%	St. Mirren	0	1939	37.51%	28.08%
2	1903-01-01	85.78	Partick Thistle	3	1667	8.86%	@ St. Mirren	0	1872	64.67%	26.47%
3	1902-09-20	78.56	Partick Thistle	3	1649	13.35%	@ Port Glasgow Athletic	0	1775	59.35%	27.30%
4	1902-10-18	62.13	@ Port Glasgow Athletic	4	1733	39.28%	Queen's Park	0	1793	32.61%	28.11%
5	1902-11-15	61.08	Heart of Midlothian	3	1924	26.67%	@ Third Lanark	0	1909	45.26%	28.07%
6	1903-01-02	51.44	Hibernian	4	2121	46.79%	@ Celtic	0	1956	25.39%	27.82%
7	1902-11-29	50.32	@ Queen's Park	4	1667	47.41%	Greenock Morton	0	1663	24.57%	28.03%
8	1902-09-27	50.00	@ Port Glasgow Athletic	3	1696	36.96%	Greenock Morton	0	1773	34.94%	28.10%
9	1902-09-29	47.94	Hibernian	5	2002	22.84%	@ Rangers	2	2020	49.18%	27.98%
10	1902-08-30	47.28	Rangers	3	1972	39.58%	@ Port Glasgow Athletic	0	1862	32.38%	28.04%
11	1902-09-20	46.13	@ Heart of Midlothian	4	1862	50.11%	Queen's Park	0	1835	21.95%	27.94%
12	1902-08-23	45.78	Dundee	2	1871	22.17%	@ Heart of Midlothian	0	1896	49.88%	27.95%
13	1902-10-25	42.25	Hibernian	3	2059	44.23%	@ Dundee	0	1915	27.85%	27.92%
14	1902-08-23	41.83	@ Rangers	9	1930	65.73%	Partick Thistle	0	1706	8.04%	26.24%
15	1902-11-08	39.79	St. Mirren	3	1937	21.98%	@ Heart of Midlothian	1	1963	50.08%	27.94%
16	1902-09-06	38.58	Hibernian	4	1960	41.02%	@ Kilmarnock	1	1840	30.97%	28.01%
17	1902-12-06	37.48	@ Dundee	3	1919	25.25%	Rangers	1	2085	46.93%	27.81%
18	1902-12-13	37.09	@ St. Mirren	3	1838	25.81%	Celtic	1	1999	46.36%	27.84%
19	1902-09-27	35.41	@ St. Mirren	4	1893	56.63%	Kilmarnock	0	1800	15.80%	27.56%
20	1902-10-11	35.25	Rangers	4	1983	57.02%	@ Greenock Morton	0	1722	15.91%	27.08%
21	1902-09-06	33.93	@ Third Lanark	5	1874	53.47%	Port Glasgow Athletic	1	1815	18.75%	27.78%
22	1902-12-13	33.14	@ Queen's Park	4	1717	46.73%	Partick Thistle	1	1719	25.22%	28.04%
23	1902-12-20	29.72	Heart of Midlothian	3	2003	54.86%	@ Port Glasgow Athletic	0	1765	17.85%	27.29%
24	1902-08-16	27.19	@ Dundee	2	1844	46.57%	Queen's Park	0	1848	25.39%	28.05%
25	1902-08-16	26.13	@ Third Lanark	4	1886	37.91%	Rangers	2	1956	33.98%	28.11%