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1901-02 Division One Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Rangers

28 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Rangers

4.32 points above expected

28 points · 23.68 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Greenock Morton

6.75 points below expected

7 points · 13.75 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rangers 18 13 2 3 28 43 29 +14 23.68 +4.32
2 Celtic 18 11 4 3 26 38 28 +10 22.10 +3.90
3 Heart of Midlothian 18 10 2 6 22 32 21 +11 19.16 +2.84
4 Third Lanark 18 7 5 6 19 30 26 +4 17.09 +1.91
5 St. Mirren 18 8 3 7 19 29 28 +1 15.63 +3.37
6 Hibernian 18 6 4 8 16 36 23 +13 20.48 -4.48
7 Kilmarnock 18 5 6 7 16 22 27 -5 16.11 -0.11
8 Queen's Park 18 5 4 9 14 21 32 -11 16.23 -2.23
9 Dundee 18 4 5 9 13 15 31 -16 15.77 -2.77
10 Greenock Morton 18 1 5 12 7 20 41 -21 13.75 -6.75

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rangers 1876 28 23.68 +4.32 92.8% 11 18 21 24 26 29 36
Celtic 1828 26 22.10 +3.90 89.3% 8 16 20 22 25 28 34
Hibernian 1820 16 20.48 -4.48 13.2% 7 14 18 20 23 26 34
Heart of Midlothian 1785 22 19.16 +2.84 82.8% 4 13 17 19 22 25 32
St. Mirren 1739 19 15.63 +3.37 85.8% 3 10 13 16 18 22 30
Third Lanark 1730 19 17.09 +1.91 75.1% 4 11 15 17 19 23 32
Kilmarnock 1687 16 16.11 -0.11 54.6% 3 10 14 16 19 22 32
Dundee 1663 13 15.77 -2.77 26.6% 3 10 13 16 18 22 30
Queen's Park 1659 14 16.23 -2.23 31.5% 5 10 14 16 19 22 30
Greenock Morton 1606 7 13.75 -6.75 3.3% 2 8 11 14 16 20 28

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CEL DUN GM HOM HIB KIL QP RAN SM TL
Celtic —
1-1-0
3.74
2-0-0
3.62
0-1-1
3.33
1-1-0
2.93
2-0-0
3.80
1-0-1
3.76
0-1-1
2.65
2-0-0
3.71
2-0-0
3.54
Dundee
0-1-1
1.80
 —
1-1-0
2.99
1-0-1
1.96
1-0-1
2.05
0-1-1
2.77
1-0-1
2.81
0-0-2
1.74
0-0-2
3.03
0-2-0
2.39
Greenock Morton
0-0-2
1.92
0-1-1
2.54
 —
0-0-2
2.08
1-0-1
1.66
0-1-1
2.40
0-2-0
2.12
0-0-2
1.30
0-1-1
2.51
0-0-2
2.00
Heart of Midlothian
1-1-0
2.21
1-0-1
3.58
2-0-0
3.45
 —
2-0-0
2.31
1-0-1
3.21
0-1-1
3.32
0-0-2
2.00
2-0-0
3.34
1-0-1
3.20
Hibernian
0-1-1
2.60
1-0-1
3.49
1-0-1
3.88
0-0-2
3.22
 —
1-1-0
3.16
1-0-1
3.31
1-0-1
2.14
0-1-1
3.40
1-1-0
3.41
Kilmarnock
0-0-2
1.74
1-1-0
2.76
1-1-0
3.13
1-0-1
2.32
0-1-1
2.37
 —
1-1-0
2.79
1-0-1
1.74
0-1-1
2.75
0-1-1
2.58
Queen's Park
1-0-1
1.78
1-0-1
2.71
0-2-0
3.41
1-1-0
2.21
1-0-1
2.23
0-1-1
2.74
 —
0-0-2
1.57
1-0-1
2.81
0-0-2
2.72
Rangers
1-1-0
2.88
2-0-0
3.81
2-0-0
4.26
2-0-0
3.54
1-0-1
3.40
1-0-1
3.80
2-0-0
3.97
 —
2-0-0
3.89
0-1-1
3.98
St. Mirren
0-0-2
1.83
2-0-0
2.51
1-1-0
3.02
0-0-2
2.20
1-1-0
2.14
1-1-0
2.78
1-0-1
2.72
0-0-2
1.65
 —
2-0-0
2.50
Third Lanark
0-0-2
2.00
0-2-0
3.14
2-0-0
3.53
1-0-1
2.33
0-1-1
2.12
1-1-0
2.95
2-0-0
2.81
1-1-0
1.56
0-0-2
3.03
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.71 +5.9
Allowed 0.35 -6.7
Differential 0.73 +4.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.00%5.56%2.22%1.67%1.11%21.11%
15.00%10.00%9.44%2.78%2.78%1.11%31.11%
25.56%9.44%6.67%5.00%1.67%—28.33%
32.22%2.78%5.00%—0.56%—10.56%
41.67%2.78%1.67%0.56%——6.67%
5+1.11%1.11%————2.22%
Total21.11%31.11%28.33%10.56%6.67%2.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.59 +0.00
SD 1.31 1.31 1.98
CV 0.83 0.83 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
111.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
25.56%16.67%16.67%5.56%5.56%—50.00%
3—5.56%16.67%———22.22%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%27.78%44.44%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 1.56 +0.56
SD 0.83 1.04 1.10
CV 0.39 0.67 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%—11.11%11.11%5.56%50.00%
15.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
211.11%——5.56%——16.67%
3———————
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%22.22%5.56%22.22%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 1.72 -0.89
SD 1.10 1.67 2.25
CV 1.32 0.97 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%———11.11%
1—16.67%16.67%16.67%16.67%—66.67%
2—5.56%5.56%11.11%——22.22%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%22.22%27.78%27.78%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 2.28 -1.17
SD 0.58 1.18 1.20
CV 0.52 0.52 —
Max 2 4 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%16.67%———22.22%
1—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
25.56%22.22%5.56%———33.33%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+———————
Total16.67%50.00%33.33%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.17 +0.61
SD 1.31 0.71 1.85
CV 0.74 0.61 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
1—5.56%27.78%———33.33%
211.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
3———————
4———————
5+11.11%5.56%————16.67%
Total27.78%22.22%44.44%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.28 +0.72
SD 2.06 0.96 2.54
CV 1.03 0.75 —
Max 8 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%—5.56%—5.56%33.33%
111.11%16.67%11.11%———38.89%
2———5.56%5.56%—11.11%
3——5.56%———5.56%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total33.33%22.22%22.22%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.50 -0.28
SD 1.31 1.50 1.93
CV 1.07 1.00 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—22.22%5.56%—5.56%—33.33%
15.56%16.67%5.56%——5.56%33.33%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
35.56%—5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%44.44%22.22%—11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.78 -0.61
SD 1.10 1.93 2.23
CV 0.94 1.08 —
Max 3 8 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%———5.56%
15.56%———5.56%—11.11%
25.56%16.67%11.11%—5.56%—38.89%
35.56%5.56%22.22%———33.33%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total16.67%27.78%44.44%—11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.39 1.61 +0.78
SD 1.14 1.14 1.73
CV 0.48 0.71 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
15.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%—5.56%38.89%
25.56%16.67%—11.11%——33.33%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%38.89%11.11%22.22%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.56 +0.06
SD 1.04 1.38 2.07
CV 0.64 0.89 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%11.11%———27.78%
15.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
25.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
3———————
4—16.67%—5.56%——22.22%
5+———————
Total22.22%33.33%27.78%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.44 +0.22
SD 1.50 1.15 1.77
CV 0.90 0.80 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Rangers 28 23.68 +4.32
2 Celtic 26 22.10 +3.90
3 St. Mirren 19 15.63 +3.37
4 Heart of Midlothian 22 19.16 +2.84
5 Third Lanark 19 17.09 +1.91

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Greenock Morton 7 13.75 -6.75
2 Hibernian 16 20.48 -4.48
3 Dundee 13 15.77 -2.77
4 Queen's Park 14 16.23 -2.23
5 Kilmarnock 16 16.11 -0.11

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Celtic 7 Aug 24 – Sep 28 1 in 164
2 Heart of Midlothian 4 Nov 9 – Nov 30 1 in 28
3 Rangers 5 Aug 24 – Sep 21 1 in 24
4 Third Lanark 3 Dec 7 – Dec 21 1 in 13
5 Greenock Morton 1 Oct 26 – Oct 26 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Greenock Morton 6 Aug 24 – Sep 28 1 in 124
2 Hibernian 3 Sep 14 – Sep 21 1 in 32
3 Celtic 2 Nov 30 – Dec 7 1 in 15
4 Queen's Park 3 Dec 21 – Jan 4 1 in 12
5 Heart of Midlothian 2 Oct 19 – Oct 26 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Celtic 13 Aug 17 – Nov 16 1 in 70
2 Third Lanark 4 Sep 28 – Nov 2 1 in 12
3 Greenock Morton 3 Oct 19 – Nov 2 1 in 10
4 Heart of Midlothian 5 Nov 2 – Nov 30 1 in 9
5 Dundee 3 Dec 7 – Mar 1 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Queen's Park 7 Dec 21 – Mar 15 1 in 29
2 Greenock Morton 9 Aug 24 – Oct 19 1 in 28
3 Dundee 8 Oct 5 – Nov 30 1 in 25
4 Hibernian 4 Oct 19 – Nov 9 1 in 13
5 Rangers 3 Sep 23 – Oct 5 1 in 10

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Rangers46.23%24.43%13.22%7.09%4.51%2.32%1.22%0.64%0.28%0.06%
Celtic25.28%25.38%18.45%11.77%7.80%5.22%3.08%1.68%1.07%0.27%
Heart of Midlothian7.46%13.18%16.67%16.67%14.31%10.86%8.61%5.82%4.13%2.29%
Third Lanark2.18%5.42%9.14%12.13%14.12%14.11%14.02%11.90%10.06%6.92%
St. Mirren0.96%2.62%5.13%7.97%10.50%13.25%14.66%15.13%16.05%13.73%
Hibernian14.05%19.45%19.27%15.64%11.15%8.15%5.17%3.73%2.32%1.07%
Kilmarnock1.30%3.20%6.01%8.85%11.61%13.26%14.53%14.73%13.90%12.61%
Queen's Park1.33%2.99%5.81%9.30%11.21%12.71%14.19%15.83%14.82%11.81%
Dundee0.91%2.67%4.48%7.40%9.89%12.59%14.20%15.59%16.56%15.71%
Greenock Morton0.30%0.66%1.82%3.18%4.90%7.53%10.32%14.95%20.81%35.53%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+6.67%
Slight Edge
42.22%22.22%35.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 23.20 Elo pts.
156 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.36 goals
Neutral
-2+0.15+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.3
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
46%
Rangers, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Photo Finish
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.84 * Some Luck: 2.84 to 4.26 * Lucky: 4.26 to 5.68 * Wild Swing: 5.68 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.49 * Close: 1.49 to 2.24 * Off: 2.24 to 2.98 * Way Off: 2.98 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.68 points
Some Luck
03.559
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Pinpoint
01.864
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
92.82%
Rangers
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
3.32%
Greenock Morton
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.18
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.47
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
69%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
83%
Strong Edge
50%84%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Very Frequent
0%55%100%
Blowouts
Expected
18%
Frequent
0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.28
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.09
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.40
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
As Expected
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.62
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.06
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.076
Well Within Noise
00.1760.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Celtic 100%
Dundee 100%
Greenock Morton 100%
Heart of Midlothian 100%
Hibernian 100%
Kilmarnock 100%
Queen's Park 100%
Rangers 100%
St. Mirren 100%
Third Lanark 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1901-08-17 Dundee D 1-1 1792 1731 51.6% 23.3% 25.1% -1.2 1
1901-08-17 @ Celtic D 1-1 1731 1792 25.1% 23.3% 51.6% +1.2 1
1901-08-17 Hibernian W 2-1 1737 1786 37.0% 23.5% 39.5% +8.0 2
1901-08-17 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1786 1737 39.5% 23.5% 37.0% -8.0 0
1901-08-17 Rangers W 4-2 1700 1845 25.0% 23.1% 51.9% +15.5 2
1901-08-17 @ Kilmarnock L 2-4 1845 1700 51.9% 23.1% 25.0% -15.5 0
1901-08-24 Kilmarnock D 0-0 1733 1716 46.2% 23.5% 30.3% -0.8 2
1901-08-24 @ Dundee D 0-0 1716 1733 30.3% 23.5% 46.2% +0.8 3
1901-08-24 Celtic L 1-2 1706 1790 32.3% 23.5% 44.2% -6.8 0
1901-08-24 @ Greenock Morton W 2-1 1790 1706 44.2% 23.5% 32.3% +6.8 3
1901-08-24 St. Mirren L 1-2 1778 1693 54.5% 23.1% 22.4% -10.5 0
1901-08-24 @ Hibernian W 2-1 1693 1778 22.4% 23.1% 54.5% +10.5 2
1901-08-24 Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 1829 1744 54.4% 23.2% 22.5% +5.1 2
1901-08-24 @ Rangers L 1-2 1744 1829 22.5% 23.2% 54.4% -5.1 2
1901-08-24 Queen's Park W 4-3 1696 1706 42.7% 23.5% 33.8% +6.5 2
1901-08-24 @ Third Lanark L 3-4 1706 1696 33.8% 23.5% 42.7% -6.6 0
1901-08-31 Third Lanark W 3-2 1797 1703 55.4% 23.1% 21.5% +4.6 5
1901-08-31 @ Celtic L 2-3 1703 1797 21.5% 23.1% 55.4% -4.6 2
1901-08-31 Rangers L 0-3 1732 1834 29.9% 23.4% 46.7% -18.7 2
1901-08-31 @ Dundee W 3-0 1834 1732 46.7% 23.4% 29.9% +18.7 4
1901-08-31 Greenock Morton W 3-1 1739 1700 49.1% 23.4% 27.5% +10.4 4
1901-08-31 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-3 1700 1739 27.5% 23.4% 49.1% -10.4 0
1901-08-31 Hibernian D 0-0 1717 1768 36.8% 23.5% 39.7% +0.1 4
1901-08-31 @ Kilmarnock D 0-0 1768 1717 39.7% 23.5% 36.8% -0.1 1
1901-08-31 St. Mirren W 3-0 1699 1704 43.4% 23.5% 33.1% +20.2 2
1901-08-31 @ Queen's Park L 0-3 1704 1699 33.1% 23.5% 43.4% -20.2 2
1901-09-07 Dundee L 1-4 1689 1713 40.6% 23.6% 35.8% -20.0 0
1901-09-07 @ Greenock Morton W 4-1 1713 1689 35.8% 23.6% 40.6% +20.0 4
1901-09-07 Queen's Park W 8-1 1768 1719 50.2% 23.4% 26.5% +30.8 3
1901-09-07 @ Hibernian L 1-8 1719 1768 26.5% 23.4% 50.2% -30.8 2
1901-09-07 Kilmarnock W 3-2 1853 1717 59.6% 22.7% 17.7% +3.9 6
1901-09-07 @ Rangers L 2-3 1717 1853 17.7% 22.7% 59.6% -3.9 4
1901-09-07 Celtic L 2-3 1683 1802 28.0% 23.3% 48.8% -5.8 2
1901-09-07 @ St. Mirren W 3-2 1802 1683 48.8% 23.3% 28.0% +5.8 7
1901-09-07 Heart of Midlothian W 2-0 1698 1750 36.7% 23.5% 39.7% +16.0 4
1901-09-07 @ Third Lanark L 0-2 1750 1698 39.7% 23.5% 36.7% -16.0 4
1901-09-14 St. Mirren L 1-2 1733 1678 51.0% 23.3% 25.6% -9.9 4
1901-09-14 @ Dundee W 2-1 1678 1733 25.6% 23.3% 51.0% +9.9 4
1901-09-14 Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1799 1734 52.1% 23.3% 24.6% -10.1 3
1901-09-14 @ Hibernian W 2-1 1734 1799 24.6% 23.3% 52.1% +10.1 6
1901-09-14 Greenock Morton W 3-2 1713 1669 49.6% 23.4% 27.0% +5.6 6
1901-09-14 @ Kilmarnock L 2-3 1669 1713 27.0% 23.4% 49.6% -5.6 0
1901-09-16 Rangers L 0-2 1744 1857 28.6% 23.3% 48.0% -12.4 6
1901-09-16 @ Heart of Midlothian W 2-0 1857 1744 48.0% 23.3% 28.6% +12.4 8
1901-09-16 Celtic L 1-2 1789 1808 41.3% 23.6% 35.1% -8.3 3
1901-09-16 @ Hibernian W 2-1 1808 1789 35.1% 23.6% 41.3% +8.3 9
1901-09-21 Greenock Morton W 2-1 1816 1664 61.1% 22.5% 16.3% +3.9 11
1901-09-21 @ Celtic L 1-2 1664 1816 16.3% 22.5% 61.1% -3.8 0
1901-09-21 Hibernian W 1-0 1723 1780 36.0% 23.5% 40.5% +8.6 6
1901-09-21 @ Dundee L 0-1 1780 1723 40.5% 23.5% 36.0% -8.6 3
1901-09-21 Kilmarnock W 3-0 1731 1718 45.7% 23.5% 30.8% +19.1 8
1901-09-21 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-3 1718 1731 30.8% 23.5% 45.7% -19.1 6
1901-09-21 Rangers L 1-5 1687 1869 21.1% 22.8% 56.1% -15.2 4
1901-09-21 @ St. Mirren W 5-1 1869 1687 56.1% 22.8% 21.1% +15.2 10
1901-09-23 Hibernian L 0-2 1884 1772 57.3% 22.9% 19.7% -22.0 10
1901-09-23 @ Rangers W 2-0 1772 1884 19.7% 22.9% 57.3% +22.0 5
1901-09-23 Celtic L 0-2 1714 1820 29.5% 23.4% 47.1% -12.7 4
1901-09-23 @ Third Lanark W 2-0 1820 1714 47.1% 23.4% 29.5% +12.7 13
1901-09-28 St. Mirren L 1-3 1660 1672 42.2% 23.6% 34.2% -14.6 0
1901-09-28 @ Greenock Morton W 3-1 1672 1660 34.2% 23.6% 42.2% +14.6 6
1901-09-28 Queen's Park D 1-1 1751 1689 51.8% 23.3% 24.9% -1.2 9
1901-09-28 @ Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1689 1751 24.9% 23.3% 51.8% +1.2 3
1901-09-28 Celtic L 0-1 1699 1832 26.2% 23.2% 50.6% -6.1 6
1901-09-28 @ Kilmarnock W 1-0 1832 1699 50.6% 23.2% 26.2% +6.1 15
1901-09-28 Rangers D 2-2 1701 1862 23.2% 23.0% 53.8% +1.1 5
1901-09-28 @ Third Lanark D 2-2 1862 1701 53.8% 23.0% 23.2% -1.0 11
1901-10-05 Kilmarnock D 1-1 1645 1693 37.2% 23.5% 39.2% +0.1 1
1901-10-05 @ Greenock Morton D 1-1 1693 1645 39.2% 23.5% 37.2% -0.1 7
1901-10-05 Third Lanark D 2-2 1794 1703 55.1% 23.1% 21.8% -1.2 6
1901-10-05 @ Hibernian D 2-2 1703 1794 21.8% 23.1% 55.1% +1.2 6
1901-10-05 Dundee W 1-0 1690 1732 38.1% 23.6% 38.4% +8.3 5
1901-10-05 @ Queen's Park L 0-1 1732 1690 38.4% 23.6% 38.1% -8.3 6
1901-10-05 Celtic D 2-2 1861 1839 46.9% 23.5% 29.6% -0.6 12
1901-10-05 @ Rangers D 2-2 1839 1861 29.6% 23.5% 46.9% +0.6 16
1901-10-05 Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1687 1749 35.2% 23.5% 41.3% -7.3 6
1901-10-05 @ St. Mirren W 2-1 1749 1687 41.3% 23.5% 35.2% +7.3 11
1901-10-12 Hibernian L 0-2 1645 1793 24.6% 23.1% 52.3% -11.0 1
1901-10-12 @ Greenock Morton W 2-0 1793 1645 52.3% 23.1% 24.6% +10.9 8
1901-10-12 Dundee W 4-0 1757 1724 48.3% 23.4% 28.3% +23.3 13
1901-10-12 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-4 1724 1757 28.3% 23.4% 48.3% -23.3 6
1901-10-12 St. Mirren L 1-2 1693 1680 45.8% 23.5% 30.7% -9.0 7
1901-10-12 @ Kilmarnock W 2-1 1680 1693 30.7% 23.5% 45.8% +9.0 8
1901-10-19 Queen's Park W 1-0 1839 1698 60.1% 22.6% 17.3% +4.3 18
1901-10-19 @ Celtic L 0-1 1698 1839 17.3% 22.6% 60.1% -4.3 5
1901-10-19 Third Lanark D 1-1 1700 1704 43.5% 23.5% 33.0% -0.5 7
1901-10-19 @ Dundee D 1-1 1704 1700 33.0% 23.5% 43.5% +0.5 7
1901-10-19 Rangers L 2-3 1803 1861 35.9% 23.5% 40.5% -7.0 8
1901-10-19 @ Hibernian W 3-2 1861 1803 40.5% 23.5% 35.9% +7.1 14
1901-10-19 Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 1684 1780 30.8% 23.4% 45.8% +9.5 9
1901-10-19 @ Kilmarnock L 0-1 1780 1684 45.8% 23.4% 30.8% -9.5 13
1901-10-19 Greenock Morton D 1-1 1689 1634 50.9% 23.3% 25.8% -1.1 9
1901-10-19 @ St. Mirren D 1-1 1634 1689 25.8% 23.3% 50.9% +1.1 2
1901-10-26 Greenock Morton L 1-2 1796 1635 61.9% 22.4% 15.7% -11.9 8
1901-10-26 @ Hibernian W 2-1 1635 1796 15.7% 22.4% 61.9% +11.9 4
1901-10-26 Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 1694 1770 33.3% 23.5% 43.2% +8.6 7
1901-10-26 @ Queen's Park L 1-2 1770 1694 43.2% 23.5% 33.3% -8.6 13
1901-10-26 Dundee W 3-0 1687 1700 42.3% 23.6% 34.2% +20.7 11
1901-10-26 @ St. Mirren L 0-3 1700 1687 34.2% 23.6% 42.3% -20.7 7
1901-11-02 Greenock Morton D 0-0 1679 1647 48.1% 23.4% 28.4% -1.0 8
1901-11-02 @ Dundee D 0-0 1647 1679 28.4% 23.4% 48.1% +1.0 5
1901-11-02 Celtic D 2-2 1762 1843 32.6% 23.5% 43.9% +0.4 14
1901-11-02 @ Heart of Midlothian D 2-2 1843 1762 43.9% 23.5% 32.6% -0.4 19
1901-11-02 Queen's Park W 2-1 1868 1702 62.3% 22.4% 15.4% +3.6 16
1901-11-02 @ Rangers L 1-2 1702 1868 15.4% 22.4% 62.3% -3.6 7
1901-11-02 Hibernian D 1-1 1708 1785 33.3% 23.5% 43.2% +0.4 12
1901-11-02 @ St. Mirren D 1-1 1785 1708 43.2% 23.5% 33.3% -0.4 9
1901-11-02 Kilmarnock D 0-0 1704 1694 45.4% 23.5% 31.1% -0.7 8
1901-11-02 @ Third Lanark D 0-0 1694 1704 31.1% 23.5% 45.4% +0.7 10
1901-11-09 St. Mirren W 3-1 1843 1709 59.5% 22.7% 17.8% +7.2 21
1901-11-09 @ Celtic L 1-3 1709 1843 17.8% 22.7% 59.5% -7.2 12
1901-11-09 Rangers L 2-3 1648 1871 17.4% 22.3% 60.3% -3.8 5
1901-11-09 @ Greenock Morton W 3-2 1871 1648 60.3% 22.3% 17.4% +3.8 18
1901-11-09 Third Lanark W 4-1 1762 1703 51.4% 23.3% 25.3% +13.7 16
1901-11-09 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-4 1703 1762 25.3% 23.3% 51.4% -13.7 8
1901-11-09 Dundee W 4-0 1694 1678 46.1% 23.5% 30.4% +24.7 12
1901-11-09 @ Kilmarnock L 0-4 1678 1694 30.4% 23.5% 46.1% -24.7 8
1901-11-09 Hibernian W 2-0 1699 1784 32.1% 23.4% 44.4% +17.5 9
1901-11-09 @ Queen's Park L 0-2 1784 1699 44.4% 23.4% 32.1% -17.5 9
1901-11-16 Celtic L 2-3 1653 1850 19.7% 22.6% 57.7% -4.3 8
1901-11-16 @ Dundee W 3-2 1850 1653 57.7% 22.6% 19.7% +4.3 23
1901-11-16 Heart of Midlothian L 1-3 1644 1776 26.4% 23.2% 50.4% -10.1 5
1901-11-16 @ Greenock Morton W 3-1 1776 1644 50.4% 23.2% 26.4% +10.0 18
1901-11-16 Kilmarnock W 5-0 1767 1719 50.1% 23.4% 26.6% +27.3 11
1901-11-16 @ Hibernian L 0-5 1719 1767 26.6% 23.4% 50.1% -27.3 12
1901-11-16 Third Lanark L 1-4 1875 1690 64.0% 22.1% 13.9% -30.0 18
1901-11-16 @ Rangers W 4-1 1690 1875 13.9% 22.1% 64.0% +30.0 10
1901-11-23 Third Lanark L 1-4 1634 1720 32.1% 23.4% 44.4% -16.6 5
1901-11-23 @ Greenock Morton W 4-1 1720 1634 44.4% 23.4% 32.1% +16.6 12
1901-11-23 St. Mirren W 2-0 1786 1701 54.4% 23.2% 22.5% +10.2 20
1901-11-23 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-2 1701 1786 22.5% 23.2% 54.4% -10.2 12
1901-11-30 Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1855 1796 51.4% 23.3% 25.3% -10.0 23
1901-11-30 @ Celtic W 2-1 1796 1855 25.3% 23.3% 51.4% +9.9 22
1901-11-30 Queen's Park D 2-2 1618 1716 30.4% 23.4% 46.2% +0.5 6
1901-11-30 @ Greenock Morton D 2-2 1716 1618 46.2% 23.4% 30.4% -0.5 10
1901-11-30 Dundee W 5-0 1794 1649 60.5% 22.6% 16.9% +18.6 13
1901-11-30 @ Hibernian L 0-5 1649 1794 16.9% 22.6% 60.5% -18.6 8
1901-11-30 St. Mirren L 0-1 1736 1691 49.8% 23.4% 26.8% -10.3 12
1901-11-30 @ Third Lanark W 1-0 1691 1736 26.8% 23.4% 49.8% +10.3 14
1901-12-07 Heart of Midlothian W 2-0 1630 1806 21.7% 22.8% 55.5% +21.3 10
1901-12-07 @ Dundee L 0-2 1806 1630 55.5% 22.8% 21.7% -21.3 22
1901-12-07 Third Lanark L 1-2 1692 1726 39.2% 23.6% 37.2% -7.9 12
1901-12-07 @ Kilmarnock W 2-1 1726 1692 37.2% 23.6% 39.2% +7.9 14
1901-12-07 Celtic W 3-2 1716 1845 26.7% 23.2% 50.0% +9.2 12
1901-12-07 @ Queen's Park L 2-3 1845 1716 50.0% 23.2% 26.7% -9.2 23
1901-12-07 Greenock Morton W 2-1 1845 1618 67.1% 21.5% 11.4% +2.7 20
1901-12-07 @ Rangers L 1-2 1618 1845 11.4% 21.5% 67.1% -2.8 6
1901-12-14 Hibernian D 2-2 1835 1813 47.0% 23.5% 29.5% -0.6 24
1901-12-14 @ Celtic D 2-2 1813 1835 29.5% 23.5% 47.0% +0.6 14
1901-12-14 Greenock Morton W 4-1 1734 1615 57.9% 22.9% 19.2% +10.9 16
1901-12-14 @ Third Lanark L 1-4 1615 1734 19.2% 22.9% 57.9% -10.9 6
1901-12-21 Third Lanark L 0-1 1725 1745 41.2% 23.6% 35.2% -8.8 12
1901-12-21 @ Queen's Park W 1-0 1745 1725 35.2% 23.6% 41.2% +8.8 18
1901-12-21 Kilmarnock D 1-1 1701 1684 46.3% 23.5% 30.2% -0.7 15
1901-12-21 @ St. Mirren D 1-1 1684 1701 30.2% 23.5% 46.3% +0.7 13
1901-12-28 Kilmarnock W 4-2 1835 1685 61.0% 22.5% 16.5% +6.0 26
1901-12-28 @ Celtic L 2-4 1685 1835 16.5% 22.5% 61.0% -6.0 13
1901-12-28 Queen's Park W 4-0 1701 1716 41.8% 23.6% 34.6% +27.4 17
1901-12-28 @ St. Mirren L 0-4 1716 1701 34.6% 23.6% 41.8% -27.4 12
1901-12-28 Dundee D 0-0 1754 1652 56.2% 23.0% 20.8% -1.9 19
1901-12-28 @ Third Lanark D 0-0 1652 1754 20.8% 23.0% 56.2% +1.9 11
1902-01-01 Rangers L 2-4 1841 1848 43.0% 23.5% 33.5% -13.2 26
1902-01-01 @ Celtic W 4-2 1848 1841 33.5% 23.5% 43.0% +13.2 22
1902-01-04 Rangers L 0-1 1689 1861 22.0% 22.9% 55.1% -5.3 12
1902-01-04 @ Queen's Park W 1-0 1861 1689 55.1% 22.9% 22.0% +5.3 24
1902-01-04 Third Lanark W 2-0 1728 1752 40.7% 23.6% 35.7% +14.8 19
1902-01-04 @ St. Mirren L 0-2 1752 1728 35.7% 23.6% 40.7% -14.8 19
1902-01-18 Queen's Park D 1-1 1679 1684 43.3% 23.5% 33.2% -0.4 14
1902-01-18 @ Kilmarnock D 1-1 1684 1679 33.2% 23.5% 43.3% +0.4 13
1902-01-18 St. Mirren W 3-2 1866 1743 58.4% 22.8% 18.8% +4.1 26
1902-01-18 @ Rangers L 2-3 1743 1866 18.8% 22.8% 58.4% -4.1 19
1902-03-01 Queen's Park W 2-0 1654 1684 39.7% 23.6% 36.7% +15.1 13
1902-03-01 @ Dundee L 0-2 1684 1654 36.7% 23.6% 39.7% -15.1 13
1902-03-01 Hibernian L 1-2 1737 1813 33.4% 23.5% 43.2% -7.0 19
1902-03-01 @ Third Lanark W 2-1 1813 1737 43.2% 23.5% 33.4% +7.0 16
1902-03-08 Greenock Morton D 1-1 1669 1605 52.1% 23.3% 24.6% -1.3 14
1902-03-08 @ Queen's Park D 1-1 1605 1669 24.6% 23.3% 52.1% +1.3 7
1902-03-15 Kilmarnock L 0-1 1668 1678 42.5% 23.5% 33.9% -9.0 14
1902-03-15 @ Queen's Park W 1-0 1678 1668 33.9% 23.5% 42.5% +9.0 16
1902-03-29 Dundee W 3-1 1871 1669 65.2% 21.9% 12.9% +5.3 28
1902-03-29 @ Rangers L 1-3 1669 1871 12.9% 21.9% 65.2% -5.3 13

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1901-11-16 13.93% Third Lanark 1690 4 @ Rangers 1875 1
2 1901-10-26 15.67% Greenock Morton 1635 2 @ Hibernian 1796 1
3 1901-09-23 19.74% Hibernian 1772 2 @ Rangers 1884 0
4 1901-12-07 21.68% @ Dundee 1630 2 Heart of Midlothian 1806 0
5 1901-08-24 22.40% St. Mirren 1693 2 @ Hibernian 1778 1
6 1901-09-14 24.59% Heart of Midlothian 1734 2 @ Hibernian 1799 1
7 1901-08-17 24.97% @ Kilmarnock 1700 4 Rangers 1845 2
8 1901-11-30 25.32% Heart of Midlothian 1796 2 @ Celtic 1855 1
9 1901-09-14 25.63% St. Mirren 1678 2 @ Dundee 1733 1
10 1901-12-07 26.74% @ Queen's Park 1716 3 Celtic 1845 2
11 1901-11-30 26.84% St. Mirren 1691 1 @ Third Lanark 1736 0
12 1901-10-12 30.73% St. Mirren 1680 2 @ Kilmarnock 1693 1
13 1901-10-19 30.77% @ Kilmarnock 1684 1 Heart of Midlothian 1780 0
14 1901-11-09 32.12% @ Queen's Park 1699 2 Hibernian 1784 0
15 1901-10-26 33.29% @ Queen's Park 1694 2 Heart of Midlothian 1770 1
16 1902-01-01 33.46% Rangers 1848 4 @ Celtic 1841 2
17 1902-03-15 33.91% Kilmarnock 1678 1 @ Queen's Park 1668 0
18 1901-09-28 34.22% St. Mirren 1672 3 @ Greenock Morton 1660 1
19 1901-09-16 35.10% Celtic 1808 2 @ Hibernian 1789 1
20 1901-12-21 35.22% Third Lanark 1745 1 @ Queen's Park 1725 0
21 1901-09-07 35.79% Dundee 1713 4 @ Greenock Morton 1689 1
22 1901-09-21 35.96% @ Dundee 1723 1 Hibernian 1780 0
23 1901-09-07 36.72% @ Third Lanark 1698 2 Heart of Midlothian 1750 0
24 1901-08-17 36.96% @ Heart of Midlothian 1737 2 Hibernian 1786 1
25 1901-12-07 37.25% Third Lanark 1726 2 @ Kilmarnock 1692 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1901-09-07 30.80 @ Hibernian 8 1768 50.17% Queen's Park 1 1719 26.45% 23.37%
2 1901-11-16 29.99 Third Lanark 4 1690 13.93% @ Rangers 1 1875 63.96% 22.11%
3 1901-12-28 27.36 @ St. Mirren 4 1701 41.83% Queen's Park 0 1716 34.61% 23.56%
4 1901-11-16 27.32 @ Hibernian 5 1767 50.06% Kilmarnock 0 1719 26.56% 23.38%
5 1901-11-09 24.70 @ Kilmarnock 4 1694 46.12% Dundee 0 1678 30.38% 23.50%
6 1901-10-12 23.33 @ Heart of Midlothian 4 1757 48.27% Dundee 0 1724 28.28% 23.44%
7 1901-09-23 22.04 Hibernian 2 1772 19.74% @ Rangers 0 1884 57.34% 22.92%
8 1901-12-07 21.31 @ Dundee 2 1630 21.68% Heart of Midlothian 0 1806 55.47% 22.84%
9 1901-10-26 20.74 @ St. Mirren 3 1687 42.26% Dundee 0 1700 34.18% 23.56%
10 1901-08-31 20.23 @ Queen's Park 3 1699 43.36% St. Mirren 0 1704 33.09% 23.55%
11 1901-09-07 20.00 Dundee 4 1713 35.79% @ Greenock Morton 1 1689 40.65% 23.56%
12 1901-09-21 19.12 @ Heart of Midlothian 3 1731 45.68% Kilmarnock 0 1718 30.81% 23.51%
13 1901-08-31 18.66 Rangers 3 1834 46.69% @ Dundee 0 1732 29.93% 23.38%
14 1901-11-30 18.59 @ Hibernian 5 1794 60.46% Dundee 0 1649 16.94% 22.60%
15 1901-11-09 17.54 @ Queen's Park 2 1699 32.12% Hibernian 0 1784 44.43% 23.45%
16 1901-11-23 16.65 Third Lanark 4 1720 44.43% @ Greenock Morton 1 1634 32.12% 23.45%
17 1901-09-07 16.04 @ Third Lanark 2 1698 36.72% Heart of Midlothian 0 1750 39.74% 23.54%
18 1901-08-17 15.54 @ Kilmarnock 4 1700 24.97% Rangers 2 1845 51.91% 23.11%
19 1901-09-21 15.16 Rangers 5 1869 56.13% @ St. Mirren 1 1687 21.09% 22.79%
20 1902-03-01 15.08 @ Dundee 2 1654 39.74% Queen's Park 0 1684 36.69% 23.56%
21 1902-01-04 14.79 @ St. Mirren 2 1728 40.69% Third Lanark 0 1752 35.74% 23.56%
22 1901-09-28 14.58 St. Mirren 3 1672 34.22% @ Greenock Morton 1 1660 42.23% 23.56%
23 1901-11-09 13.73 @ Heart of Midlothian 4 1762 51.41% Third Lanark 1 1703 25.27% 23.32%
24 1902-01-01 13.24 Rangers 4 1848 33.46% @ Celtic 2 1841 42.99% 23.55%
25 1901-09-23 12.71 Celtic 2 1820 47.09% @ Third Lanark 0 1714 29.54% 23.36%