Home / Leagues / Scotland / Division One / 1900-01

1900-01 Division One Season

110 games

Final

Champion

Rangers

35 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Rangers

5.50 points above expected

35 points · 29.50 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Heart of Midlothian

7.53 points below expected

14 points · 21.53 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rangers 20 17 1 2 35 60 25 +35 29.50 +5.50
2 Celtic 20 13 3 4 29 49 28 +21 26.59 +2.41
3 Hibernian 20 9 7 4 25 29 22 +7 26.21 -1.21
4 Greenock Morton 20 9 3 8 21 40 40 0 16.22 +4.78
5 Third Lanark 20 6 6 8 18 20 29 -9 17.23 +0.77
6 Kilmarnock 20 7 4 9 18 35 47 -12 19.43 -1.43
7 Dundee 20 6 5 9 17 36 35 +1 20.61 -3.61
8 Queen's Park 20 7 3 10 17 33 37 -4 15.35 +1.65
9 St. Mirren 20 5 6 9 16 33 43 -10 17.82 -1.82
10 Heart of Midlothian 20 5 4 11 14 22 30 -8 21.53 -7.53
11 Partick Thistle 20 4 2 14 10 28 49 -21 9.52 +0.48

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rangers 1855 35 29.50 +5.50 97.7% 18 24 27 30 32 35 40
Celtic 1716 29 26.59 +2.41 80.2% 13 21 24 27 29 32 37
Hibernian 1703 25 26.21 -1.21 41.1% 14 20 24 26 29 32 38
Heart of Midlothian 1575 14 21.53 -7.53 2.3% 8 16 19 21 24 27 34
Dundee 1546 17 20.61 -3.61 19.4% 7 15 18 21 23 26 33
Greenock Morton 1512 21 16.22 +4.78 93.1% 3 11 14 16 19 22 29
Kilmarnock 1511 18 19.43 -1.43 39.6% 6 14 17 19 22 25 35
Third Lanark 1509 18 17.23 +0.77 64.3% 4 12 15 17 20 23 31
Queen's Park 1496 17 15.35 +1.65 73.4% 3 10 13 15 18 21 29
St. Mirren 1476 16 17.82 -1.82 36.0% 7 12 15 18 20 24 31
Partick Thistle 1297 10 9.52 +0.48 63.5% 0 5 7 9 12 15 21

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CEL DUN GM HOM HIB KIL PT QP RAN SM TL
Celtic
0-1-1
3.75
2-0-0
4.18
1-0-1
3.60
1-1-0
2.78
1-0-1
4.00
1-1-0
4.84
2-0-0
4.36
1-0-1
2.27
2-0-0
4.14
2-0-0
4.03
Dundee
1-1-0
1.84
1-0-1
3.43
1-0-1
2.63
0-0-2
2.00
1-0-1
2.87
1-1-0
4.42
1-0-1
3.50
0-0-2
1.48
0-2-0
3.22
0-1-1
3.54
Greenock Morton
0-0-2
1.42
1-0-1
2.16
1-1-0
1.98
1-1-0
1.40
1-0-1
2.45
1-0-1
3.94
1-0-1
2.92
0-0-2
1.01
2-0-0
2.38
1-1-0
2.55
Heart of Midlothian
1-0-1
1.99
1-0-1
2.96
0-1-1
3.60
0-1-1
2.12
2-0-0
2.86
1-0-1
4.48
0-0-2
3.75
0-0-2
1.89
0-1-1
3.22
0-1-1
3.37
Hibernian
0-1-1
2.80
2-0-0
3.58
0-1-1
4.21
1-1-0
3.46
0-2-0
3.76
2-0-0
4.96
0-1-1
4.20
1-0-1
2.12
2-0-0
3.98
1-1-0
4.17
Kilmarnock
1-0-1
1.60
1-0-1
2.71
1-0-1
3.13
0-0-2
2.73
0-2-0
1.83
2-0-0
4.38
1-1-0
3.36
0-0-2
1.32
0-1-1
3.04
1-0-1
2.98
Partick Thistle
0-1-1
0.80
0-1-1
1.19
1-0-1
1.66
1-0-1
1.14
0-0-2
0.70
0-0-2
1.23
0-0-2
1.99
0-0-2
0.58
1-0-1
1.47
1-0-1
1.56
Queen's Park
0-0-2
1.25
1-0-1
2.08
1-0-1
2.66
2-0-0
1.84
1-1-0
1.41
0-1-1
2.22
2-0-0
3.60
0-0-2
0.94
0-1-1
2.45
0-0-2
2.54
Rangers
1-0-1
3.31
2-0-0
4.12
2-0-0
4.62
2-0-0
3.71
1-0-1
3.47
2-0-0
4.29
2-0-0
5.09
2-0-0
4.69
2-0-0
4.57
1-1-0
4.50
St. Mirren
0-0-2
1.46
0-2-0
2.36
0-0-2
3.20
1-1-0
2.36
0-0-2
1.62
1-1-0
2.54
1-0-1
4.13
1-1-0
3.13
0-0-2
1.05
1-1-0
2.79
Third Lanark
0-0-2
1.57
1-1-0
2.04
0-1-1
3.04
1-1-0
2.21
0-1-1
1.43
1-0-1
2.59
1-0-1
4.04
2-0-0
3.04
0-1-1
1.12
0-1-1
2.79

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

Slope
Scored 0.65 +5.0
Allowed 0.45 -5.3
Differential 0.92 +4.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.45%6.36%4.55%1.82%2.27%0.91%21.36%
16.36%5.45%8.64%3.64%2.27%1.82%28.18%
24.55%8.64%6.36%3.18%0.91%2.27%25.91%
31.82%3.64%3.18%1.82%0.91%0.45%11.82%
42.27%2.27%0.91%0.91%6.36%
5+0.91%1.82%2.27%0.45%0.91%6.36%
Total21.36%28.18%25.91%11.82%6.36%6.36%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 1.75 +0.00
SD 1.48 1.48 2.13
CV 0.85 0.85
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 110

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0
15.00%5.00%15.00%5.00%30.00%
215.00%10.00%5.00%30.00%
35.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%20.00%
45.00%5.00%10.00%
5+5.00%5.00%10.00%
Total25.00%25.00%35.00%15.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.45 1.40 +1.05
SD 1.43 1.05 1.64
CV 0.58 0.75
Max 6 3 +4
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%5.00%5.00%15.00%
115.00%15.00%5.00%10.00%45.00%
25.00%5.00%10.00%
35.00%5.00%10.00%
415.00%15.00%
5+5.00%5.00%
Total25.00%25.00%25.00%10.00%5.00%10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.80 1.75 +0.05
SD 1.51 1.59 2.46
CV 0.84 0.91
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%5.00%
115.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%30.00%
25.00%10.00%10.00%15.00%5.00%5.00%50.00%
35.00%5.00%
4
5+5.00%5.00%10.00%
Total20.00%20.00%20.00%25.00%10.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 2.00 +0.00
SD 1.38 1.49 2.05
CV 0.69 0.74
Max 6 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.00%15.00%5.00%5.00%10.00%50.00%
15.00%15.00%5.00%25.00%
25.00%5.00%10.00%
310.00%10.00%
4
5+5.00%5.00%
Total25.00%30.00%25.00%10.00%10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.10 1.50 -0.40
SD 1.71 1.28 2.41
CV 1.56 0.85
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%10.00%5.00%25.00%
110.00%10.00%5.00%25.00%
215.00%5.00%15.00%35.00%
35.00%5.00%10.00%
45.00%5.00%
5+
Total40.00%35.00%15.00%5.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.10 +0.35
SD 1.15 1.45 2.01
CV 0.79 1.32
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%5.00%5.00%15.00%
15.00%10.00%5.00%20.00%
25.00%25.00%15.00%10.00%55.00%
3
45.00%5.00%
5+5.00%5.00%
Total5.00%35.00%20.00%25.00%15.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 2.35 -0.60
SD 1.21 1.73 2.26
CV 0.69 0.73
Max 5 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.00%10.00%5.00%30.00%
15.00%20.00%10.00%35.00%
210.00%10.00%
310.00%5.00%5.00%20.00%
4
5+5.00%5.00%
Total30.00%35.00%10.00%15.00%10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.40 2.45 -1.05
SD 1.39 1.47 1.85
CV 0.99 0.60
Max 5 6 +2
Min 0 1 -4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%5.00%15.00%5.00%30.00%
110.00%5.00%5.00%20.00%
25.00%5.00%10.00%5.00%25.00%
35.00%5.00%10.00%
45.00%5.00%10.00%
5+5.00%5.00%
Total30.00%20.00%20.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.65 1.85 -0.20
SD 1.53 1.81 2.17
CV 0.93 0.98
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0
110.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%25.00%
215.00%15.00%
35.00%15.00%20.00%
45.00%10.00%5.00%20.00%
5+5.00%10.00%5.00%20.00%
Total20.00%45.00%30.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.00 1.25 +1.75
SD 1.59 0.97 2.00
CV 0.53 0.77
Max 6 4 +6
Min 1 0 -3

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%10.00%10.00%5.00%35.00%
15.00%5.00%10.00%
210.00%10.00%5.00%25.00%
35.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%20.00%
45.00%5.00%
5+5.00%5.00%
Total10.00%30.00%25.00%15.00%10.00%10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.65 2.15 -0.50
SD 1.53 1.50 1.67
CV 0.93 0.70
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%30.00%
115.00%5.00%15.00%5.00%5.00%45.00%
25.00%5.00%10.00%20.00%
35.00%5.00%
4
5+
Total35.00%15.00%35.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.45 -0.45
SD 0.86 1.43 1.61
CV 0.86 0.99
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 20

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Rangers 35 29.50 +5.50
2 Greenock Morton 21 16.22 +4.78
3 Celtic 29 26.59 +2.41
4 Queen's Park 17 15.35 +1.65
5 Third Lanark 18 17.23 +0.77

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Heart of Midlothian 14 21.53 -7.53
2 Dundee 17 20.61 -3.61
3 St. Mirren 16 17.82 -1.82
4 Kilmarnock 18 19.43 -1.43
5 Hibernian 25 26.21 -1.21

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rangers 11 Oct 20 – Feb 16 1 in 71
2 Partick Thistle 2 Sep 29 – Oct 6 1 in 64
3 Celtic 6 Aug 18 – Sep 24 1 in 50
4 Heart of Midlothian 2 Nov 10 – Nov 17 1 in 44
5 Dundee 3 Sep 1 – Sep 15 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Heart of Midlothian 3 Aug 25 – Sep 8 1 in 31
2 Celtic 2 Dec 22 – Jan 1 1 in 14
3 Dundee 2 Sep 29 – Oct 6 1 in 13
4 St. Mirren 2 Sep 15 – Sep 22 1 in 8
5 Partick Thistle 5 Aug 18 – Sep 24 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Celtic 11 Aug 15 – Oct 27 1 in 25
2 Heart of Midlothian 6 Nov 3 – Dec 15 1 in 18
3 Greenock Morton 4 Aug 25 – Sep 22 1 in 17
4 Third Lanark 4 Oct 6 – Nov 3 1 in 13
5 Hibernian 8 Sep 1 – Oct 13 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Heart of Midlothian 7 Aug 25 – Sep 24 1 in 65
2 Dundee 7 Oct 20 – Dec 15 1 in 30
3 St. Mirren 11 Nov 17 – Mar 30 1 in 25
4 Kilmarnock 7 Nov 10 – Dec 29 1 in 20
5 Hibernian 3 Sep 29 – Oct 20 1 in 16

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team1234567891011
Rangers62.50%23.21%9.70%3.14%0.97%0.36%0.09%0.03%
Celtic19.47%35.06%26.04%11.14%4.79%1.96%0.84%0.50%0.16%0.04%
Hibernian15.03%29.13%31.51%13.30%6.23%2.57%1.33%0.55%0.28%0.07%
Greenock Morton0.05%0.30%1.21%3.77%7.89%10.42%14.73%17.72%20.15%18.57%5.19%
Third Lanark0.08%0.41%2.07%5.53%9.04%12.67%15.39%17.52%18.21%16.01%3.07%
Kilmarnock0.33%1.60%5.13%11.62%16.46%17.24%16.22%13.47%10.20%6.53%1.20%
Dundee0.99%3.77%9.35%20.27%18.98%17.04%11.87%8.36%6.11%2.96%0.30%
Queen's Park0.11%0.68%2.29%4.95%8.15%11.99%16.28%20.46%27.20%7.89%
St. Mirren0.15%0.74%2.67%6.78%11.00%14.11%16.40%16.61%15.73%12.94%2.87%
Heart of Midlothian1.40%5.67%11.64%22.16%19.67%15.24%10.42%7.14%4.41%1.99%0.26%
Partick Thistle0.02%0.24%0.72%1.82%4.29%13.69%79.22%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+21.82%
Clear Edge
50.91%20.00%29.09%
Elo Value
Home Edge
221 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
077.04600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.61 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.35+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.2
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
62%
Rangers, 1st of 11
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.30/gm
Tight Race
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.76 * Some Luck: 2.76 to 4.14 * Lucky: 4.14 to 5.51 * Wild Swing: 5.51 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.05 * Close: 1.05 to 1.57 * Off: 1.57 to 2.1 * Way Off: 2.1 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 11 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 11 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 11 * As Expected: 11 to 17.6 * Several Outliers: 17.6 to 24.2 * Many Outliers: 24.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.55 points
Some Luck
03.459
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.82
Off
01.313
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.45%
97.65%
Rangers
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.55%
2.29%
Heart of Midlothian
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 11
Minimal Outliers
01.111

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.18
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.60
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
69%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 95%
96%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
58%
Very Frequent
0%52%100%
Blowouts
Expected
23%
Very Frequent
0%24%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.54
Highly Predictable
00.542
Matchup Imbalance
0.49
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.06
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.61
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Chalky
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
17%
As Expected
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.23
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.84
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.116
Well Within Noise
00.1500.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Celtic 100%
Hibernian 100%
Rangers 100%
Heart of Midlothian 99.74% 0.26%
Dundee 99.70% 0.30%
Kilmarnock 98.80% 1.20%
St. Mirren 97.13% 2.87%
Third Lanark 96.93% 3.07%
Greenock Morton 94.81% 5.19%
Queen's Park 92.11% 7.89%
Partick Thistle 20.78% 79.22%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1900-08-15 Partick Thistle D 3-3 1680 1292 79.9% 16.7% 3.5% -2.4 1
1900-08-15 @ Celtic D 3-3 1292 1680 3.5% 16.7% 79.9% +2.4 1
1900-08-18 Celtic L 2-3 1462 1677 27.1% 20.8% 52.1% -5.5 0
1900-08-18 @ Greenock Morton W 3-2 1677 1462 52.1% 20.8% 27.1% +5.5 3
1900-08-18 Kilmarnock L 1-2 1294 1562 21.6% 20.4% 58.0% -4.8 1
1900-08-18 @ Partick Thistle W 2-1 1562 1294 58.0% 20.4% 21.6% +4.8 2
1900-08-18 Third Lanark W 4-0 1785 1509 75.4% 18.4% 6.1% +5.5 2
1900-08-18 @ Rangers L 0-4 1509 1785 6.1% 18.4% 75.4% -5.5 0
1900-08-22 Kilmarnock W 3-2 1504 1567 47.5% 21.2% 31.3% +6.2 2
1900-08-22 @ Third Lanark L 2-3 1567 1504 31.3% 21.2% 47.5% -6.2 2
1900-08-25 Hibernian W 3-1 1683 1696 53.7% 21.1% 25.2% +9.5 5
1900-08-25 @ Celtic L 1-3 1696 1683 25.2% 21.1% 53.7% -9.5 0
1900-08-25 Rangers L 0-1 1678 1790 40.8% 21.2% 38.0% -8.6 0
1900-08-25 @ Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 1790 1678 38.0% 21.2% 40.8% +8.6 4
1900-08-25 Dundee W 2-0 1560 1550 56.2% 21.0% 22.8% +10.1 4
1900-08-25 @ Kilmarnock L 0-2 1550 1560 22.8% 21.0% 56.2% -10.1 0
1900-08-25 Partick Thistle W 5-2 1521 1290 73.3% 19.0% 7.7% +3.9 2
1900-08-25 @ St. Mirren L 2-5 1290 1521 7.7% 19.0% 73.3% -3.9 1
1900-08-25 Greenock Morton D 2-2 1510 1456 60.7% 20.8% 18.6% -1.5 3
1900-08-25 @ Third Lanark D 2-2 1456 1510 18.6% 20.8% 60.7% +1.5 1
1900-09-01 Queen's Park W 4-0 1540 1462 62.9% 20.6% 16.5% +14.3 2
1900-09-01 @ Dundee L 0-4 1462 1540 16.5% 20.6% 62.9% -14.3 0
1900-09-01 St. Mirren W 1-0 1458 1525 47.0% 21.2% 31.8% +7.1 3
1900-09-01 @ Greenock Morton L 0-1 1525 1458 31.8% 21.2% 47.0% -7.0 2
1900-09-01 Heart of Midlothian W 3-0 1686 1670 56.9% 21.0% 22.1% +14.2 2
1900-09-01 @ Hibernian L 0-3 1670 1686 22.1% 21.0% 56.9% -14.2 0
1900-09-01 Kilmarnock W 5-1 1799 1570 73.1% 19.1% 7.8% +5.9 6
1900-09-01 @ Rangers L 1-5 1570 1799 7.8% 19.1% 73.1% -5.9 4
1900-09-01 Celtic L 1-2 1508 1692 31.0% 21.0% 48.0% -6.5 3
1900-09-01 @ Third Lanark W 2-1 1692 1508 48.0% 21.0% 31.0% +6.5 7
1900-09-08 Dundee L 0-4 1656 1555 64.8% 20.4% 14.8% -46.8 0
1900-09-08 @ Heart of Midlothian W 4-0 1555 1656 14.8% 20.4% 64.8% +46.8 4
1900-09-08 Hibernian D 2-2 1565 1700 37.4% 21.1% 41.4% +0.1 5
1900-09-08 @ Kilmarnock D 2-2 1700 1565 41.4% 21.1% 37.4% -0.1 3
1900-09-08 Rangers L 1-2 1286 1805 6.3% 17.2% 76.5% -1.5 1
1900-09-08 @ Partick Thistle W 2-1 1805 1286 76.5% 17.2% 6.3% +1.5 8
1900-09-08 Celtic L 0-2 1447 1699 23.2% 20.5% 56.3% -10.1 0
1900-09-08 @ Queen's Park W 2-0 1699 1447 56.3% 20.5% 23.2% +10.1 9
1900-09-08 Third Lanark W 2-1 1517 1502 56.8% 21.0% 22.2% +4.9 4
1900-09-08 @ St. Mirren L 1-2 1502 1517 22.2% 21.0% 56.8% -4.9 3
1900-09-15 Kilmarnock W 3-0 1602 1565 59.0% 20.9% 20.1% +13.1 6
1900-09-15 @ Dundee L 0-3 1565 1602 20.1% 20.9% 59.0% -13.1 5
1900-09-15 Heart of Midlothian D 2-2 1465 1609 36.3% 21.1% 42.6% +0.2 4
1900-09-15 @ Greenock Morton D 2-2 1609 1465 42.6% 21.1% 36.3% -0.2 1
1900-09-15 St. Mirren W 1-0 1700 1522 70.2% 19.7% 10.1% +2.5 5
1900-09-15 @ Hibernian L 0-1 1522 1700 10.1% 19.7% 70.2% -2.5 4
1900-09-17 Celtic L 0-2 1609 1709 42.4% 21.2% 36.4% -16.7 1
1900-09-17 @ Heart of Midlothian W 2-0 1709 1609 36.4% 21.2% 42.4% +16.7 11
1900-09-17 Rangers W 4-1 1703 1806 42.0% 21.2% 36.8% +18.3 7
1900-09-17 @ Hibernian L 1-4 1806 1703 36.8% 21.2% 42.0% -18.3 8
1900-09-22 Queen's Park L 1-2 1592 1437 68.8% 19.9% 11.3% -13.1 1
1900-09-22 @ Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 1437 1592 11.3% 19.9% 68.8% +13.1 2
1900-09-22 Partick Thistle W 2-1 1552 1284 75.1% 18.5% 6.4% +1.5 7
1900-09-22 @ Kilmarnock L 1-2 1284 1552 6.4% 18.5% 75.1% -1.5 1
1900-09-22 Greenock Morton L 0-2 1520 1465 60.8% 20.8% 18.5% -23.1 4
1900-09-22 @ St. Mirren W 2-0 1465 1520 18.5% 20.8% 60.8% +23.2 6
1900-09-22 Hibernian D 0-0 1497 1721 26.2% 20.7% 53.1% +1.4 4
1900-09-22 @ Third Lanark D 0-0 1721 1497 53.1% 20.7% 26.2% -1.4 8
1900-09-24 Third Lanark W 5-1 1726 1498 73.1% 19.1% 7.9% +5.9 13
1900-09-24 @ Celtic L 1-5 1498 1726 7.9% 19.1% 73.1% -5.9 4
1900-09-24 Hibernian L 0-1 1283 1720 9.6% 18.4% 72.0% -2.3 1
1900-09-24 @ Partick Thistle W 1-0 1720 1283 72.0% 18.4% 9.6% +2.3 10
1900-09-24 Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 1788 1579 72.1% 19.3% 8.6% +2.2 10
1900-09-24 @ Rangers L 0-1 1579 1788 8.6% 19.3% 72.1% -2.2 1
1900-09-29 Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1615 1577 59.1% 20.9% 20.0% -11.3 6
1900-09-29 @ Dundee W 2-1 1577 1615 20.0% 20.9% 59.1% +11.3 3
1900-09-29 Celtic D 2-2 1722 1731 54.0% 21.1% 24.9% -1.0 11
1900-09-29 @ Hibernian D 2-2 1731 1722 24.9% 21.1% 54.0% +1.0 14
1900-09-29 Third Lanark W 3-1 1280 1493 27.5% 20.8% 51.7% +17.1 3
1900-09-29 @ Partick Thistle L 1-3 1493 1280 51.7% 20.8% 27.5% -17.1 4
1900-09-29 Rangers L 2-3 1450 1790 15.4% 19.7% 64.9% -3.3 2
1900-09-29 @ Queen's Park W 3-2 1790 1450 64.9% 19.7% 15.4% +3.3 12
1900-10-06 Rangers W 2-1 1732 1793 47.8% 21.2% 31.1% +6.5 16
1900-10-06 @ Celtic L 1-2 1793 1732 31.1% 21.2% 47.8% -6.5 12
1900-10-06 Partick Thistle L 1-3 1588 1298 76.1% 18.2% 5.7% -25.0 3
1900-10-06 @ Heart of Midlothian W 3-1 1298 1588 5.7% 18.2% 76.1% +25.0 5
1900-10-06 Queen's Park W 2-1 1553 1447 65.2% 20.4% 14.4% +3.3 9
1900-10-06 @ Kilmarnock L 1-2 1447 1553 14.4% 20.4% 65.2% -3.4 2
1900-10-06 Dundee W 2-1 1475 1603 38.5% 21.2% 40.3% +8.0 6
1900-10-06 @ Third Lanark L 1-2 1603 1475 40.3% 21.2% 38.5% -8.0 6
1900-10-13 Queen's Park W 2-0 1739 1444 76.3% 18.1% 5.5% +2.6 18
1900-10-13 @ Celtic L 0-2 1444 1739 5.5% 18.1% 76.3% -2.6 2
1900-10-13 Greenock Morton W 5-2 1595 1488 65.3% 20.4% 14.3% +7.1 8
1900-10-13 @ Dundee L 2-5 1488 1595 14.3% 20.4% 65.3% -7.1 6
1900-10-13 Hibernian D 0-0 1563 1721 34.4% 21.1% 44.6% +0.5 4
1900-10-13 @ Heart of Midlothian D 0-0 1721 1563 44.6% 21.1% 34.4% -0.5 12
1900-10-13 Kilmarnock W 3-1 1497 1556 47.9% 21.2% 30.9% +11.2 6
1900-10-13 @ St. Mirren L 1-3 1556 1497 30.9% 21.2% 47.9% -11.2 9
1900-10-13 Rangers D 1-1 1483 1787 18.3% 20.1% 61.7% +2.1 7
1900-10-13 @ Third Lanark D 1-1 1787 1483 61.7% 20.1% 18.3% -2.1 13
1900-10-20 Queen's Park L 0-1 1720 1441 75.6% 18.4% 6.0% -15.2 12
1900-10-20 @ Hibernian W 1-0 1441 1720 6.0% 18.4% 75.6% +15.2 4
1900-10-20 Greenock Morton W 4-1 1545 1481 61.6% 20.7% 17.7% +9.9 11
1900-10-20 @ Kilmarnock L 1-4 1481 1545 17.7% 20.7% 61.6% -9.9 6
1900-10-20 Dundee W 4-2 1785 1602 70.5% 19.6% 9.8% +3.6 15
1900-10-20 @ Rangers L 2-4 1602 1785 9.8% 19.6% 70.5% -3.6 8
1900-10-20 Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 1508 1563 48.5% 21.2% 30.3% +6.4 8
1900-10-20 @ St. Mirren L 1-2 1563 1508 30.3% 21.2% 48.5% -6.4 4
1900-10-20 Partick Thistle W 1-0 1486 1322 69.3% 19.8% 10.9% +2.7 9
1900-10-20 @ Third Lanark L 0-1 1322 1486 10.9% 19.8% 69.3% -2.7 5
1900-10-27 Kilmarnock W 1-0 1742 1555 70.8% 19.6% 9.7% +2.4 20
1900-10-27 @ Celtic L 0-1 1555 1742 9.7% 19.6% 70.8% -2.4 11
1900-10-27 Greenock Morton L 1-2 1557 1471 63.5% 20.5% 15.9% -12.1 4
1900-10-27 @ Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 1471 1557 15.9% 20.5% 63.5% +12.1 8
1900-10-27 Dundee W 2-1 1705 1599 65.2% 20.4% 14.4% +3.3 14
1900-10-27 @ Hibernian L 1-2 1599 1705 14.4% 20.4% 65.2% -3.3 8
1900-10-27 St. Mirren D 0-0 1456 1514 48.1% 21.2% 30.7% -0.9 5
1900-10-27 @ Queen's Park D 0-0 1514 1456 30.7% 21.2% 48.1% +0.9 9
1900-11-03 Third Lanark D 0-0 1545 1488 60.9% 20.8% 18.3% -2.3 5
1900-11-03 @ Heart of Midlothian D 0-0 1488 1545 18.3% 20.8% 60.9% +2.3 10
1900-11-03 Celtic W 2-1 1553 1744 30.0% 20.9% 49.0% +9.4 13
1900-11-03 @ Kilmarnock L 1-2 1744 1553 49.0% 20.9% 30.0% -9.5 20
1900-11-03 Greenock Morton W 3-0 1455 1483 51.9% 21.1% 27.0% +16.9 7
1900-11-03 @ Queen's Park L 0-3 1483 1455 27.0% 21.1% 51.9% -16.9 8
1900-11-03 Partick Thistle W 4-1 1788 1320 82.4% 15.3% 2.3% +1.2 17
1900-11-03 @ Rangers L 1-4 1320 1788 2.3% 15.3% 82.4% -1.2 5
1900-11-10 Celtic D 1-1 1595 1735 37.0% 21.1% 41.9% +0.2 9
1900-11-10 @ Dundee D 1-1 1735 1595 41.9% 21.1% 37.0% -0.2 21
1900-11-10 Third Lanark W 1-0 1466 1491 52.3% 21.1% 26.6% +6.1 10
1900-11-10 @ Greenock Morton L 0-1 1491 1466 26.6% 21.1% 52.3% -6.1 10
1900-11-10 Heart of Midlothian L 1-3 1562 1543 57.2% 21.0% 21.8% -18.9 13
1900-11-10 @ Kilmarnock W 3-1 1543 1562 21.8% 21.0% 57.2% +18.9 7
1900-11-10 Queen's Park W 4-3 1515 1472 59.6% 20.8% 19.5% +4.1 11
1900-11-10 @ St. Mirren L 3-4 1472 1515 19.5% 20.8% 59.6% -4.1 7
1900-11-17 Heart of Midlothian L 1-3 1734 1561 69.9% 19.7% 10.3% -23.1 21
1900-11-17 @ Celtic W 3-1 1561 1734 10.3% 19.7% 69.9% +23.1 9
1900-11-17 Rangers L 1-3 1472 1790 17.1% 19.9% 62.9% -6.7 10
1900-11-17 @ Greenock Morton W 3-1 1790 1472 62.9% 19.9% 17.1% +6.7 19
1900-11-17 Dundee D 1-1 1319 1596 20.6% 20.3% 59.1% +1.8 6
1900-11-17 @ Partick Thistle D 1-1 1596 1319 59.1% 20.3% 20.6% -1.8 10
1900-11-17 Third Lanark L 0-2 1468 1484 53.2% 21.1% 25.7% -20.4 7
1900-11-17 @ Queen's Park W 2-0 1484 1468 25.7% 21.1% 53.2% +20.4 12
1900-11-17 Hibernian L 0-2 1519 1709 30.3% 20.9% 48.8% -12.7 11
1900-11-17 @ St. Mirren W 2-0 1709 1519 48.8% 20.9% 30.3% +12.7 16
1900-11-24 Greenock Morton W 4-2 1711 1466 74.0% 18.8% 7.1% +2.6 23
1900-11-24 @ Celtic L 2-4 1466 1711 7.1% 18.8% 74.0% -2.6 10
1900-11-24 Third Lanark D 0-0 1594 1505 63.8% 20.5% 15.7% -2.6 11
1900-11-24 @ Dundee D 0-0 1505 1594 15.7% 20.5% 63.8% +2.6 13
1900-11-24 Kilmarnock D 2-2 1721 1543 70.3% 19.7% 10.1% -2.2 17
1900-11-24 @ Hibernian D 2-2 1543 1721 10.1% 19.7% 70.3% +2.2 14
1900-11-24 Partick Thistle W 2-0 1448 1320 66.8% 20.2% 13.0% +6.1 9
1900-11-24 @ Queen's Park L 0-2 1320 1448 13.0% 20.2% 66.8% -6.1 6
1900-11-24 St. Mirren W 5-2 1796 1507 76.1% 18.2% 5.7% +2.9 21
1900-11-24 @ Rangers L 2-5 1507 1796 5.7% 18.2% 76.1% -2.9 11
1900-12-01 Hibernian L 1-3 1591 1719 38.6% 21.2% 40.3% -13.4 11
1900-12-01 @ Dundee W 3-1 1719 1591 40.3% 21.2% 38.6% +13.4 19
1900-12-01 Queen's Park W 6-2 1463 1454 56.1% 21.0% 22.8% +13.5 12
1900-12-01 @ Greenock Morton L 2-6 1454 1463 22.8% 21.0% 56.1% -13.5 9
1900-12-01 St. Mirren D 0-0 1585 1504 63.1% 20.6% 16.3% -2.5 10
1900-12-01 @ Heart of Midlothian D 0-0 1504 1585 16.3% 20.6% 63.1% +2.5 12
1900-12-01 Rangers L 1-2 1545 1799 23.0% 20.5% 56.5% -5.0 14
1900-12-01 @ Kilmarnock W 2-1 1799 1545 56.5% 20.5% 23.0% +5.0 23
1900-12-01 Celtic L 2-6 1314 1714 11.5% 18.9% 69.6% -7.1 6
1900-12-01 @ Partick Thistle W 6-2 1714 1314 69.6% 18.9% 11.5% +7.1 25
1900-12-08 Partick Thistle L 2-3 1477 1307 69.7% 19.8% 10.5% -12.6 12
1900-12-08 @ Greenock Morton W 3-2 1307 1477 10.5% 19.8% 69.7% +12.6 8
1900-12-08 Kilmarnock W 7-0 1582 1540 59.5% 20.8% 19.7% +28.5 12
1900-12-08 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-7 1540 1582 19.7% 20.8% 59.5% -28.5 14
1900-12-08 Queen's Park W 1-0 1507 1440 61.9% 20.7% 17.4% +4.2 15
1900-12-08 @ Third Lanark L 0-1 1440 1507 17.4% 20.7% 61.9% -4.2 9
1900-12-15 St. Mirren W 3-0 1721 1506 72.4% 19.2% 8.4% +5.8 27
1900-12-15 @ Celtic L 0-3 1506 1721 8.4% 19.2% 72.4% -5.8 12
1900-12-15 Rangers L 1-5 1578 1804 25.9% 20.7% 53.4% -17.6 11
1900-12-15 @ Dundee W 5-1 1804 1578 53.4% 20.7% 25.9% +17.6 25
1900-12-15 Third Lanark W 2-0 1732 1512 72.7% 19.2% 8.1% +3.8 21
1900-12-15 @ Hibernian L 0-2 1512 1732 8.1% 19.2% 72.7% -3.9 15
1900-12-15 Heart of Midlothian L 0-1 1320 1610 19.4% 20.2% 60.4% -4.6 8
1900-12-15 @ Partick Thistle W 1-0 1610 1320 60.4% 20.2% 19.4% +4.6 14
1900-12-15 Kilmarnock D 5-5 1436 1512 45.8% 21.2% 33.0% -0.3 10
1900-12-15 @ Queen's Park D 5-5 1512 1436 33.0% 21.2% 45.8% +0.3 15
1900-12-22 Dundee L 1-2 1727 1560 69.5% 19.8% 10.7% -13.2 27
1900-12-22 @ Celtic W 2-1 1560 1727 10.7% 19.8% 69.5% +13.2 13
1900-12-22 Greenock Morton D 1-1 1736 1464 75.3% 18.5% 6.2% -3.5 22
1900-12-22 @ Hibernian D 1-1 1464 1736 6.2% 18.5% 75.3% +3.5 13
1900-12-22 St. Mirren D 2-2 1512 1500 56.4% 21.0% 22.6% -1.2 16
1900-12-22 @ Kilmarnock D 2-2 1500 1512 22.6% 21.0% 56.4% +1.2 13
1900-12-22 Queen's Park L 1-4 1315 1436 39.6% 21.2% 39.2% -19.4 8
1900-12-22 @ Partick Thistle W 4-1 1436 1315 39.2% 21.2% 39.6% +19.4 12
1900-12-22 Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 1508 1615 41.5% 21.2% 37.3% +8.0 17
1900-12-22 @ Third Lanark L 0-1 1615 1508 37.3% 21.2% 41.5% -8.0 14
1900-12-29 Partick Thistle W 4-0 1573 1296 75.5% 18.4% 6.1% +5.5 15
1900-12-29 @ Dundee L 0-4 1296 1573 6.1% 18.4% 75.5% -5.5 8
1900-12-29 Kilmarnock W 3-2 1468 1511 50.0% 21.2% 28.9% +5.8 15
1900-12-29 @ Greenock Morton L 2-3 1511 1468 28.9% 21.2% 50.0% -5.8 16
1900-12-29 Queen's Park W 3-2 1822 1455 79.1% 17.0% 3.9% +0.9 27
1900-12-29 @ Rangers L 2-3 1455 1822 3.9% 17.0% 79.1% -0.8 12
1900-12-29 St. Mirren D 2-2 1516 1502 56.7% 21.0% 22.3% -1.2 18
1900-12-29 @ Third Lanark D 2-2 1502 1516 22.3% 21.0% 56.7% +1.2 14
1901-01-01 Third Lanark W 2-1 1505 1515 54.0% 21.1% 24.9% +5.4 18
1901-01-01 @ Kilmarnock L 1-2 1515 1505 24.9% 21.1% 54.0% -5.4 18
1901-01-01 Celtic W 2-1 1823 1714 65.4% 20.4% 14.2% +3.3 29
1901-01-01 @ Rangers L 1-2 1714 1823 14.2% 20.4% 65.4% -3.3 27
1901-01-05 Greenock Morton L 1-2 1290 1473 31.1% 21.0% 47.9% -6.5 8
1901-01-05 @ Partick Thistle W 2-1 1473 1290 47.9% 21.0% 31.1% +6.5 17
1901-01-05 Dundee W 1-0 1454 1579 39.0% 21.2% 39.8% +8.4 14
1901-01-05 @ Queen's Park L 0-1 1579 1454 39.8% 21.2% 39.0% -8.4 15
1901-01-05 Rangers L 1-4 1503 1826 16.7% 19.9% 63.5% -9.2 14
1901-01-05 @ St. Mirren W 4-1 1826 1503 63.5% 19.9% 16.7% +9.2 31
1901-01-19 Dundee W 5-1 1480 1570 43.8% 21.2% 35.0% +22.7 19
1901-01-19 @ Greenock Morton L 1-5 1570 1480 35.0% 21.2% 43.8% -22.7 15
1901-01-19 Partick Thistle W 2-0 1733 1284 81.8% 15.7% 2.5% +1.1 24
1901-01-19 @ Hibernian L 0-2 1284 1733 2.5% 15.7% 81.8% -1.1 8
1901-01-19 Heart of Midlothian W 4-0 1463 1607 36.2% 21.1% 42.7% +31.8 16
1901-01-19 @ Queen's Park L 0-4 1607 1463 42.7% 21.1% 36.2% -31.9 14
1901-01-19 Celtic L 3-4 1494 1710 27.0% 20.8% 52.2% -5.3 14
1901-01-19 @ St. Mirren W 4-3 1710 1494 52.2% 20.8% 27.0% +5.3 29
1901-01-26 Hibernian W 6-0 1835 1734 64.8% 20.4% 14.8% +19.0 33
1901-01-26 @ Rangers L 0-6 1734 1835 14.8% 20.4% 64.8% -19.0 24
1901-02-02 St. Mirren D 1-1 1548 1488 61.2% 20.7% 18.1% -2.1 16
1901-02-02 @ Dundee D 1-1 1488 1548 18.1% 20.7% 61.2% +2.1 15
1901-02-09 St. Mirren W 5-3 1283 1490 28.1% 20.8% 51.1% +14.3 10
1901-02-09 @ Partick Thistle L 3-5 1490 1283 51.1% 20.8% 28.1% -14.3 15
1901-02-16 Greenock Morton W 3-2 1854 1503 78.6% 17.3% 4.2% +0.9 35
1901-02-16 @ Rangers L 2-3 1503 1854 4.2% 17.3% 78.6% -0.9 19
1901-03-30 Hibernian W 1-0 1502 1715 27.4% 20.8% 51.8% +10.5 21
1901-03-30 @ Greenock Morton L 0-1 1715 1502 51.8% 20.8% 27.4% -10.5 24
1901-03-30 Dundee D 3-3 1476 1546 46.6% 21.2% 32.2% -0.4 16
1901-03-30 @ St. Mirren D 3-3 1546 1476 32.2% 21.2% 46.6% +0.4 17
1901-04-27 Hibernian D 1-1 1495 1704 27.8% 20.8% 51.4% +1.1 17
1901-04-27 @ Queen's Park D 1-1 1704 1495 51.4% 20.8% 27.8% -1.1 25

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1900-10-06 5.69% Partick Thistle 1298 3 @ Heart of Midlothian 1588 1
2 1900-10-20 6.02% Queen's Park 1441 1 @ Hibernian 1720 0
3 1900-11-17 10.33% Heart of Midlothian 1561 3 @ Celtic 1734 1
4 1900-12-08 10.51% Partick Thistle 1307 3 @ Greenock Morton 1477 2
5 1900-12-22 10.67% Dundee 1560 2 @ Celtic 1727 1
6 1900-09-22 11.32% Queen's Park 1437 2 @ Heart of Midlothian 1592 1
7 1900-09-08 14.79% Dundee 1555 4 @ Heart of Midlothian 1656 0
8 1900-10-27 15.91% Greenock Morton 1471 2 @ Heart of Midlothian 1557 1
9 1900-09-22 18.46% Greenock Morton 1465 2 @ St. Mirren 1520 0
10 1900-09-29 19.99% Heart of Midlothian 1577 2 @ Dundee 1615 1
11 1900-11-10 21.80% Heart of Midlothian 1543 3 @ Kilmarnock 1562 1
12 1900-11-17 25.65% Third Lanark 1484 2 @ Queen's Park 1468 0
13 1901-03-30 27.41% @ Greenock Morton 1502 1 Hibernian 1715 0
14 1900-09-29 27.54% @ Partick Thistle 1280 3 Third Lanark 1493 1
15 1901-02-09 28.08% @ Partick Thistle 1283 5 St. Mirren 1490 3
16 1900-11-03 30.05% @ Kilmarnock 1553 2 Celtic 1744 1
17 1901-01-19 36.23% @ Queen's Park 1463 4 Heart of Midlothian 1607 0
18 1900-09-17 36.37% Celtic 1709 2 @ Heart of Midlothian 1609 0
19 1900-08-25 38.00% Rangers 1790 1 @ Heart of Midlothian 1678 0
20 1900-10-06 38.53% @ Third Lanark 1475 2 Dundee 1603 1
21 1901-01-05 38.99% @ Queen's Park 1454 1 Dundee 1579 0
22 1900-12-22 39.25% Queen's Park 1436 4 @ Partick Thistle 1315 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1900-09-08 46.81 Dundee 4 1555 14.79% @ Heart of Midlothian 0 1656 64.78% 20.43%
2 1901-01-19 31.86 @ Queen's Park 4 1463 36.23% Heart of Midlothian 0 1607 42.66% 21.11%
3 1900-12-08 28.47 @ Heart of Midlothian 7 1582 59.48% Kilmarnock 0 1540 19.67% 20.85%
4 1900-10-06 24.97 Partick Thistle 3 1298 5.69% @ Heart of Midlothian 1 1588 76.10% 18.20%
5 1900-09-22 23.15 Greenock Morton 2 1465 18.46% @ St. Mirren 0 1520 60.77% 20.77%
6 1900-11-17 23.07 Heart of Midlothian 3 1561 10.33% @ Celtic 1 1734 69.94% 19.73%
7 1901-01-19 22.70 @ Greenock Morton 5 1480 43.77% Dundee 1 1570 35.02% 21.21%
8 1900-11-17 20.40 Third Lanark 2 1484 25.65% @ Queen's Park 0 1468 53.24% 21.11%
9 1900-12-22 19.37 Queen's Park 4 1436 39.25% @ Partick Thistle 1 1315 39.58% 21.17%
10 1901-01-26 19.00 @ Rangers 6 1835 64.82% Hibernian 0 1734 14.76% 20.43%
11 1900-11-10 18.91 Heart of Midlothian 3 1543 21.80% @ Kilmarnock 1 1562 57.23% 20.97%
12 1900-09-17 18.29 @ Hibernian 4 1703 41.99% Rangers 1 1806 36.81% 21.20%
13 1900-12-15 17.63 Rangers 5 1804 53.38% @ Dundee 1 1578 25.91% 20.71%
14 1900-09-29 17.13 @ Partick Thistle 3 1280 27.54% Third Lanark 1 1493 51.66% 20.80%
15 1900-11-03 16.86 @ Queen's Park 3 1455 51.87% Greenock Morton 0 1483 26.99% 21.14%
16 1900-09-17 16.73 Celtic 2 1709 36.37% @ Heart of Midlothian 0 1609 42.43% 21.20%
17 1900-10-20 15.21 Queen's Park 1 1441 6.02% @ Hibernian 0 1720 75.62% 18.36%
18 1900-09-01 14.34 @ Dundee 4 1540 62.93% Queen's Park 0 1462 16.46% 20.60%
19 1901-02-09 14.33 @ Partick Thistle 5 1283 28.08% St. Mirren 3 1490 51.09% 20.83%
20 1900-09-01 14.25 @ Hibernian 3 1686 56.88% Heart of Midlothian 0 1670 22.13% 20.98%
21 1900-12-01 13.53 @ Greenock Morton 6 1463 56.14% Queen's Park 2 1454 22.84% 21.01%
22 1900-12-01 13.41 Hibernian 3 1719 40.30% @ Dundee 1 1591 38.55% 21.16%
23 1900-12-22 13.24 Dundee 2 1560 10.67% @ Celtic 1 1727 69.54% 19.80%
24 1900-09-15 13.12 @ Dundee 3 1602 59.01% Kilmarnock 0 1565 20.11% 20.88%
25 1900-09-22 13.10 Queen's Park 2 1437 11.32% @ Heart of Midlothian 1 1592 68.75% 19.92%