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1899-00 Division One Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Rangers

32 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Rangers

4.19 points above expected

32 points · 27.81 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

St. Mirren

5.02 points below expected

12 points · 17.02 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rangers 18 15 2 1 32 69 27 +42 27.81 +4.19
2 Celtic 18 9 7 2 25 46 27 +19 22.13 +2.87
3 Hibernian 18 9 6 3 24 43 24 +19 20.30 +3.70
4 Heart of Midlothian 18 10 3 5 23 41 24 +17 23.89 -0.89
5 Kilmarnock 18 6 6 6 18 30 37 -7 17.94 +0.06
6 Dundee 18 4 7 7 15 36 39 -3 12.74 +2.26
7 Third Lanark 18 5 5 8 15 31 38 -7 15.71 -0.71
8 St. Mirren 18 3 6 9 12 30 46 -16 17.02 -5.02
9 St. Bernards 18 4 4 10 12 29 47 -18 13.80 -1.80
10 Clyde 18 2 0 16 4 24 70 -46 8.65 -4.65

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rangers 2099 32 27.81 +4.19 96.3% 14 23 26 28 30 32 36
Hibernian 1909 24 20.30 +3.70 90.6% 9 15 18 20 22 25 31
Celtic 1896 25 22.13 +2.87 86.1% 11 17 20 22 24 27 32
Heart of Midlothian 1879 23 23.89 -0.89 43.8% 12 19 22 24 26 29 35
Kilmarnock 1717 18 17.94 +0.06 57.3% 7 13 16 18 20 23 29
Dundee 1683 15 12.74 +2.26 81.3% 2 8 11 13 15 18 25
St. Mirren 1640 12 17.02 -5.02 7.1% 6 12 15 17 19 22 28
Third Lanark 1622 15 15.71 -0.71 47.5% 4 11 14 16 18 21 28
St. Bernards 1621 12 13.80 -1.80 33.7% 2 9 12 14 16 19 25
Clyde 1362 4 8.65 -4.65 6.3% 0 4 7 9 10 13 21

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CEL CLY DUN HOM HIB KIL RAN SB SM TL
Celtic —
2-0-0
4.40
1-1-0
4.23
0-0-2
2.58
1-1-0
3.19
0-2-0
3.17
1-1-0
1.55
1-1-0
4.42
1-1-0
3.88
2-0-0
3.55
Clyde
0-0-2
1.11
 —
0-0-2
2.40
0-0-2
0.63
0-0-2
0.83
0-0-2
1.03
0-0-2
0.67
0-0-2
1.54
1-0-1
1.34
1-0-1
1.21
Dundee
0-1-1
1.26
2-0-0
3.06
 —
0-1-1
1.31
0-2-0
1.43
0-1-1
2.47
0-0-2
0.84
1-0-1
2.25
1-0-1
1.72
0-2-0
2.47
Heart of Midlothian
2-0-0
2.89
2-0-0
4.96
1-1-0
4.20
 —
0-0-2
3.53
1-0-1
3.78
0-1-1
1.87
2-0-0
4.03
1-1-0
4.04
1-0-1
4.24
Hibernian
0-1-1
2.27
2-0-0
4.74
0-2-0
4.07
2-0-0
1.94
 —
2-0-0
2.58
0-0-2
1.46
1-1-0
4.16
1-1-0
2.88
1-1-0
4.01
Kilmarnock
0-2-0
2.31
2-0-0
4.48
1-1-0
3.01
1-0-1
1.69
0-0-2
2.88
 —
0-0-2
1.23
1-1-0
3.40
1-1-0
2.69
0-1-1
2.98
Rangers
0-1-1
3.93
2-0-0
4.92
2-0-0
4.71
1-1-0
3.60
2-0-0
4.04
2-0-0
4.29
 —
2-0-0
4.85
2-0-0
4.75
2-0-0
4.43
St. Bernards
0-1-1
1.09
2-0-0
3.94
1-0-1
3.22
0-0-2
1.48
0-1-1
1.34
0-1-1
2.07
0-0-2
0.72
 —
0-1-1
2.54
1-0-1
2.03
St. Mirren
0-1-1
1.61
1-0-1
4.15
1-0-1
3.76
0-1-1
1.44
0-1-1
2.58
0-1-1
2.77
0-0-2
0.80
1-1-0
2.93
 —
0-1-1
3.16
Third Lanark
0-0-2
1.92
1-0-1
4.28
0-2-0
2.99
1-0-1
1.26
0-1-1
1.48
1-1-0
2.49
0-0-2
1.10
1-0-1
3.43
1-1-0
2.30
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.82 +5.7
Allowed 0.82 -5.2
Differential 0.98 +3.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.11%1.67%2.78%2.78%1.67%4.44%14.44%
11.67%12.22%4.44%3.89%2.22%2.22%26.67%
22.78%4.44%5.56%5.00%2.22%1.67%21.67%
32.78%3.89%5.00%6.67%2.22%—20.56%
41.67%2.22%2.22%2.22%——8.33%
5+4.44%2.22%1.67%———8.33%
Total14.44%26.67%21.67%20.56%8.33%8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 2.11 +0.00
SD 1.56 1.56 2.55
CV 0.74 0.74 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%———5.56%
1—16.67%————16.67%
2—11.11%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
35.56%5.56%11.11%11.11%——33.33%
4———————
5+11.11%—5.56%———16.67%
Total16.67%33.33%33.33%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.56 1.50 +1.06
SD 1.42 0.99 1.89
CV 0.56 0.66 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.56%—27.78%33.33%
1——5.56%11.11%5.56%—22.22%
2———16.67%5.56%5.56%27.78%
3—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total—5.56%11.11%33.33%16.67%33.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 3.89 -2.56
SD 1.24 1.68 2.59
CV 0.93 0.43 —
Max 4 7 +2
Min 0 1 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%—5.56%5.56%22.22%
1—11.11%11.11%—5.56%—27.78%
2——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
35.56%5.56%—16.67%——27.78%
4———————
5+5.56%—5.56%———11.11%
Total16.67%16.67%27.78%22.22%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 2.17 -0.17
SD 1.88 1.58 2.85
CV 0.94 0.73 —
Max 7 6 +7
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
15.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
211.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
35.56%—5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
4—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total27.78%33.33%22.22%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 1.33 +0.94
SD 1.36 1.19 1.86
CV 0.60 0.89 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%———5.56%
15.56%22.22%5.56%———33.33%
2——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
35.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
45.56%——5.56%——11.11%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total22.22%38.89%22.22%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.39 1.33 +1.06
SD 1.50 1.03 1.92
CV 0.63 0.77 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
15.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%—5.56%33.33%
2—16.67%11.11%—5.56%—33.33%
3—5.56%5.56%11.11%——22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%38.89%22.22%22.22%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 2.06 -0.39
SD 0.97 1.43 1.72
CV 0.58 0.70 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—5.56%————5.56%
25.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
3—5.56%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
4—11.11%5.56%11.11%——27.78%
5+11.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
Total16.67%38.89%22.22%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.83 1.50 +2.33
SD 1.65 1.04 2.17
CV 0.43 0.70 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 1 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%27.78%
1—16.67%5.56%—5.56%—27.78%
25.56%———5.56%—11.11%
3——5.56%5.56%11.11%—22.22%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total11.11%16.67%22.22%11.11%27.78%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 2.61 -1.00
SD 1.42 1.61 2.45
CV 0.88 0.62 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
1—11.11%—16.67%5.56%11.11%44.44%
2——16.67%——5.56%22.22%
35.56%——5.56%——11.11%
45.56%——5.56%——11.11%
5+———————
Total11.11%16.67%16.67%33.33%5.56%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 2.56 -0.89
SD 1.19 1.58 2.22
CV 0.71 0.62 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%5.56%5.56%—22.22%
1—16.67%5.56%——5.56%27.78%
25.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%5.56%27.78%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total16.67%27.78%16.67%16.67%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 2.11 -0.39
SD 1.53 1.64 2.48
CV 0.89 0.78 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Rangers 32 27.81 +4.19
2 Hibernian 24 20.30 +3.70
3 Celtic 25 22.13 +2.87
4 Dundee 15 12.74 +2.26
5 Kilmarnock 18 17.94 +0.06

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 St. Mirren 12 17.02 -5.02
2 Clyde 4 8.65 -4.65
3 St. Bernards 12 13.80 -1.80
4 Heart of Midlothian 23 23.89 -0.89
5 Third Lanark 15 15.71 -0.71

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Heart of Midlothian 5 Sep 23 – Oct 21 1 in 22
2 Rangers 7 Oct 14 – Dec 16 1 in 11
3 Hibernian 3 Oct 28 – Nov 11 1 in 9
4 Kilmarnock 1 Aug 19 – Aug 19 1 in 6
5 St. Bernards 2 Dec 9 – Dec 16 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Clyde 11 Aug 19 – Nov 18 1 in 82
2 Heart of Midlothian 2 Dec 23 – Mar 17 1 in 16
3 St. Bernards 4 Sep 2 – Sep 23 1 in 15
4 St. Mirren 4 Nov 25 – Dec 16 1 in 12
5 Celtic 1 Sep 30 – Sep 30 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dundee 5 Dec 2 – Jan 6 1 in 28
2 St. Bernards 5 Dec 2 – Jan 6 1 in 23
3 Kilmarnock 4 Dec 16 – Mar 17 1 in 14
4 St. Mirren 4 Oct 21 – Nov 18 1 in 10
5 Third Lanark 5 Oct 21 – Dec 2 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 St. Mirren 11 Oct 7 – Dec 30 1 in 48
2 Heart of Midlothian 3 Dec 16 – Mar 17 1 in 7
3 Kilmarnock 5 Nov 4 – Dec 16 1 in 5
4 Celtic 3 Sep 30 – Oct 21 1 in 4
5 Hibernian 3 Sep 9 – Sep 18 1 in 4

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Rangers78.29%16.06%4.28%0.99%0.31%0.06%——0.01%—
Celtic5.44%24.73%32.12%20.82%9.69%4.58%1.82%0.69%0.11%—
Hibernian2.14%12.44%22.21%27.91%17.43%9.83%5.25%1.99%0.72%0.08%
Heart of Midlothian13.66%41.82%25.08%11.67%5.10%1.89%0.63%0.12%0.03%—
Kilmarnock0.27%2.54%7.61%16.59%24.78%21.27%13.88%9.07%3.49%0.50%
Dundee—0.04%0.43%1.51%4.53%8.88%15.59%23.50%33.27%12.25%
Third Lanark0.05%0.68%2.82%7.05%14.45%20.11%22.09%18.32%11.92%2.51%
St. Mirren0.15%1.52%4.97%11.10%18.20%21.89%20.43%13.73%6.95%1.06%
St. Bernards—0.17%0.48%2.35%5.33%10.98%18.53%27.41%27.42%7.33%
Clyde———0.01%0.18%0.51%1.78%5.17%16.08%76.27%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+27.78%
Strong Edge
51.11%25.56%23.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge
173 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
099.11500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.68 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.57+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.6
One-Team Race
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
78%
Rangers, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.39/gm
Tight Race
00.200.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.43 * Some Luck: 2.43 to 3.64 * Lucky: 3.64 to 4.85 * Wild Swing: 4.85 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.8 * Close: 0.8 to 1.2 * Off: 1.2 to 1.6 * Way Off: 1.6 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.10 points
Some Luck
03.038
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Close
01.002.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
96.34%
Rangers
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
6.28%
Clyde
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.24
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.91
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
82%
Wide Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
99%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
52%
Very Frequent
0%44%100%
Blowouts
Expected
30%
Very Frequent
0%33%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.49
Highly Predictable
00.542
Matchup Imbalance
0.57
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.10
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.63
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Chalky
0%16%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
10%
Solid Favorites
0%13%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.31 * Well Above Noise: 0.31 and up.
Probability calibration
0.82
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.21
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.099
Well Within Noise
00.1570.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Rangers 99.99% 0.01%
Heart of Midlothian 99.97% 0.03%
Celtic 99.89% 0.11%
Hibernian 99.20% 0.80%
Kilmarnock 96.01% 3.99%
St. Mirren 91.99% 8.01%
Third Lanark 85.57% 14.43%
St. Bernards 65.25% 34.75%
Dundee 54.48% 45.52%
Clyde 7.65% 92.35%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1899-08-19 Clyde W 3-2 1808 1545 71.2% 24.0% 4.8% +2.5 2
1899-08-19 @ Celtic L 2-3 1545 1808 4.8% 24.0% 71.2% -2.5 0
1899-08-19 Kilmarnock L 0-1 1809 1774 57.8% 26.6% 15.6% -24.3 0
1899-08-19 @ St. Mirren W 1-0 1774 1809 15.6% 26.6% 57.8% +24.3 2
1899-08-19 Rangers L 1-5 1692 1992 18.7% 26.1% 55.2% -28.9 0
1899-08-19 @ Third Lanark W 5-1 1992 1692 55.2% 26.1% 18.7% +28.9 2
1899-08-26 Rangers L 2-6 1543 2020 7.7% 23.7% 68.6% -10.8 0
1899-08-26 @ Clyde W 6-2 2020 1543 68.6% 23.7% 7.7% +10.8 4
1899-08-26 Celtic D 2-2 1798 1811 53.3% 26.9% 19.8% -2.3 3
1899-08-26 @ Kilmarnock D 2-2 1811 1798 19.8% 26.9% 53.3% +2.3 3
1899-08-26 St. Mirren W 5-1 1664 1785 40.3% 27.1% 32.6% +44.9 2
1899-08-26 @ Third Lanark L 1-5 1785 1664 32.6% 27.1% 40.3% -44.9 0
1899-09-02 Third Lanark W 5-2 1813 1709 63.0% 26.1% 10.9% +12.3 5
1899-09-02 @ Celtic L 2-5 1709 1813 10.9% 26.1% 63.0% -12.3 2
1899-09-02 Clyde W 3-1 1524 1532 53.8% 26.9% 19.3% +16.4 2
1899-09-02 @ Dundee L 1-3 1532 1524 19.3% 26.9% 53.8% -16.4 0
1899-09-02 Kilmarnock W 3-1 1734 1796 47.9% 27.1% 25.0% +20.1 2
1899-09-02 @ Hibernian L 1-3 1796 1734 25.0% 27.1% 47.9% -20.1 3
1899-09-02 Heart of Midlothian W 4-3 2031 1873 66.3% 25.5% 8.2% +4.2 6
1899-09-02 @ Rangers L 3-4 1873 2031 8.2% 25.5% 66.3% -4.2 0
1899-09-02 St. Bernards W 4-3 1740 1675 60.2% 26.4% 13.4% +6.5 2
1899-09-02 @ St. Mirren L 3-4 1675 1740 13.4% 26.4% 60.2% -6.5 0
1899-09-09 Hibernian W 2-1 1826 1755 60.7% 26.4% 13.0% +6.8 7
1899-09-09 @ Celtic L 1-2 1755 1826 13.0% 26.4% 60.7% -6.8 2
1899-09-09 Rangers L 2-4 1776 2035 22.6% 26.5% 51.0% -16.5 3
1899-09-09 @ Kilmarnock W 4-2 2035 1776 51.0% 26.5% 22.6% +16.5 8
1899-09-09 Heart of Midlothian L 2-4 1669 1869 29.5% 26.8% 43.6% -20.4 0
1899-09-09 @ St. Bernards W 4-2 1869 1669 43.6% 26.8% 29.5% +20.4 2
1899-09-09 Dundee W 4-0 1746 1541 68.7% 24.9% 6.5% +13.4 4
1899-09-09 @ St. Mirren L 0-4 1541 1746 6.5% 24.9% 68.7% -13.5 2
1899-09-09 Clyde W 5-0 1696 1515 67.5% 25.2% 7.3% +18.8 4
1899-09-09 @ Third Lanark L 0-5 1515 1696 7.3% 25.2% 67.5% -18.8 0
1899-09-16 Hibernian D 2-2 1527 1748 27.0% 26.7% 46.3% +1.3 3
1899-09-16 @ Dundee D 2-2 1748 1527 46.3% 26.7% 27.0% -1.3 3
1899-09-16 St. Mirren W 3-0 1889 1760 64.6% 25.8% 9.6% +15.0 4
1899-09-16 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-3 1760 1889 9.6% 25.8% 64.6% -15.0 4
1899-09-16 St. Bernards W 2-1 1759 1648 63.5% 26.0% 10.5% +5.7 5
1899-09-16 @ Kilmarnock L 1-2 1648 1759 10.5% 26.0% 63.5% -5.6 0
1899-09-18 Rangers D 1-1 1904 2052 36.6% 27.0% 36.4% -0.0 5
1899-09-18 @ Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 2052 1904 36.4% 27.0% 36.6% +0.0 9
1899-09-18 Celtic D 1-1 1746 1832 45.0% 27.1% 27.9% -1.5 4
1899-09-18 @ Hibernian D 1-1 1832 1746 27.9% 27.1% 45.0% +1.5 8
1899-09-23 Celtic L 0-5 1497 1834 15.6% 25.7% 58.8% -36.4 0
1899-09-23 @ Clyde W 5-0 1834 1497 58.8% 25.7% 15.6% +36.4 10
1899-09-23 St. Bernards W 3-0 1529 1643 41.3% 27.1% 31.6% +40.3 5
1899-09-23 @ Dundee L 0-3 1643 1529 31.6% 27.1% 41.3% -40.3 0
1899-09-23 Kilmarnock W 1-0 1904 1765 65.2% 25.7% 9.1% +5.2 7
1899-09-23 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-1 1765 1904 9.1% 25.7% 65.2% -5.2 5
1899-09-23 St. Mirren W 5-1 1745 1745 54.6% 26.9% 18.6% +29.0 6
1899-09-23 @ Hibernian L 1-5 1745 1745 18.6% 26.9% 54.6% -29.0 4
1899-09-25 Hibernian W 3-2 2052 1774 71.8% 23.8% 4.5% +2.3 11
1899-09-25 @ Rangers L 2-3 1774 2052 4.5% 23.8% 71.8% -2.3 6
1899-09-25 Celtic L 0-3 1715 1870 35.5% 27.0% 37.4% -43.9 4
1899-09-25 @ Third Lanark W 3-0 1870 1715 37.4% 27.0% 35.5% +43.9 12
1899-09-30 Heart of Midlothian L 0-2 1914 1909 55.0% 26.8% 18.1% -43.6 12
1899-09-30 @ Celtic W 2-0 1909 1914 18.1% 26.8% 55.0% +43.6 9
1899-09-30 Third Lanark D 1-1 1760 1671 62.0% 26.2% 11.8% -5.0 6
1899-09-30 @ Kilmarnock D 1-1 1671 1760 11.8% 26.2% 62.0% +5.0 5
1899-09-30 Clyde W 3-0 1716 1460 70.9% 24.1% 5.0% +8.0 6
1899-09-30 @ St. Mirren L 0-3 1460 1716 5.0% 24.1% 70.9% -8.0 0
1899-10-07 Third Lanark W 2-0 1953 1676 71.8% 23.8% 4.5% +4.9 11
1899-10-07 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-2 1676 1953 4.5% 23.8% 71.8% -4.9 5
1899-10-07 Clyde W 3-1 1755 1452 72.7% 23.4% 3.9% +3.7 8
1899-10-07 @ Kilmarnock L 1-3 1452 1755 3.9% 23.4% 72.7% -3.7 0
1899-10-07 Celtic D 3-3 2054 1871 67.6% 25.1% 7.2% -3.9 12
1899-10-07 @ Rangers D 3-3 1871 2054 7.2% 25.1% 67.6% +3.9 13
1899-10-07 Dundee W 2-0 1602 1569 57.6% 26.7% 15.7% +16.0 2
1899-10-07 @ St. Bernards L 0-2 1569 1602 15.7% 26.7% 57.6% -16.0 5
1899-10-07 Hibernian D 1-1 1724 1772 49.5% 27.0% 23.5% -2.4 7
1899-10-07 @ St. Mirren D 1-1 1772 1724 23.5% 27.0% 49.5% +2.4 7
1899-10-14 St. Mirren W 5-2 1553 1721 33.7% 27.0% 39.3% +34.6 7
1899-10-14 @ Dundee L 2-5 1721 1553 39.3% 27.0% 33.7% -34.5 7
1899-10-14 St. Bernards W 5-0 1958 1618 74.1% 22.7% 3.2% +8.2 13
1899-10-14 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-5 1618 1958 3.2% 22.7% 74.1% -8.2 2
1899-10-14 Hibernian L 0-3 1758 1774 53.0% 26.9% 20.1% -61.1 8
1899-10-14 @ Kilmarnock W 3-0 1774 1758 20.1% 26.9% 53.0% +61.1 9
1899-10-14 Clyde W 7-0 2050 1449 81.6% 17.6% 0.9% +2.6 14
1899-10-14 @ Rangers L 0-7 1449 2050 0.9% 17.6% 81.6% -2.6 0
1899-10-21 Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1446 1966 6.2% 23.0% 70.8% -3.3 0
1899-10-21 @ Clyde W 2-1 1966 1446 70.8% 23.0% 6.2% +3.2 15
1899-10-21 Rangers L 0-2 1835 2053 27.3% 26.7% 45.9% -24.8 9
1899-10-21 @ Hibernian W 2-0 2053 1835 45.9% 26.7% 27.3% +24.8 16
1899-10-21 Dundee W 2-1 1697 1587 63.4% 26.0% 10.6% +5.7 10
1899-10-21 @ Kilmarnock L 1-2 1587 1697 10.6% 26.0% 63.4% -5.7 7
1899-10-21 Celtic D 2-2 1687 1874 31.1% 26.9% 42.0% +0.7 8
1899-10-21 @ St. Mirren D 2-2 1874 1687 42.0% 26.9% 31.1% -0.7 14
1899-10-21 St. Bernards W 2-0 1671 1610 59.9% 26.5% 13.7% +14.2 7
1899-10-21 @ Third Lanark L 0-2 1610 1671 13.7% 26.5% 59.9% -14.2 2
1899-10-28 St. Bernards W 5-0 1874 1596 71.8% 23.8% 4.5% +11.4 16
1899-10-28 @ Celtic L 0-5 1596 1874 4.5% 23.8% 71.8% -11.4 2
1899-10-28 Third Lanark D 0-0 1582 1685 42.7% 27.1% 30.2% -1.2 8
1899-10-28 @ Dundee D 0-0 1685 1582 30.2% 27.1% 42.7% +1.2 8
1899-10-28 Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 1810 1969 35.0% 27.0% 38.0% +16.8 11
1899-10-28 @ Hibernian L 0-1 1969 1810 38.0% 27.0% 35.0% -16.8 15
1899-11-04 Hibernian L 3-4 1443 1827 12.3% 25.1% 62.6% -5.8 0
1899-11-04 @ Clyde W 4-3 1827 1443 62.6% 25.1% 12.3% +5.8 13
1899-11-04 Celtic W 3-2 1952 1885 60.4% 26.4% 13.2% +6.5 17
1899-11-04 @ Heart of Midlothian L 2-3 1885 1952 13.2% 26.4% 60.4% -6.5 16
1899-11-04 Dundee W 6-0 2078 1581 78.9% 19.7% 1.5% +4.1 18
1899-11-04 @ Rangers L 0-6 1581 2078 1.5% 19.7% 78.9% -4.1 8
1899-11-04 Kilmarnock D 1-1 1585 1703 40.7% 27.1% 32.2% -0.7 3
1899-11-04 @ St. Bernards D 1-1 1703 1585 32.2% 27.1% 40.7% +0.7 11
1899-11-04 Third Lanark D 1-1 1688 1687 54.6% 26.9% 18.5% -3.4 9
1899-11-04 @ St. Mirren D 1-1 1687 1688 18.5% 26.9% 54.6% +3.4 9
1899-11-11 Dundee W 4-1 1959 1576 75.5% 21.9% 2.6% +3.4 19
1899-11-11 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-4 1576 1959 2.6% 21.9% 75.5% -3.4 8
1899-11-11 St. Mirren D 2-2 1704 1684 56.4% 26.7% 16.9% -2.8 12
1899-11-11 @ Kilmarnock D 2-2 1684 1704 16.9% 26.7% 56.4% +2.8 10
1899-11-11 Hibernian L 0-4 1584 1833 23.7% 26.5% 49.8% -42.0 3
1899-11-11 @ St. Bernards W 4-0 1833 1584 49.8% 26.5% 23.7% +42.0 15
1899-11-18 Dundee D 3-3 1875 1573 72.7% 23.4% 3.9% -4.5 16
1899-11-18 @ Hibernian D 3-3 1573 1875 3.9% 23.4% 72.7% +4.5 9
1899-11-18 Clyde W 3-2 1542 1437 63.1% 26.1% 10.9% +5.5 5
1899-11-18 @ St. Bernards L 2-3 1437 1542 10.9% 26.1% 63.1% -5.5 0
1899-11-18 Heart of Midlothian D 2-2 1687 1962 21.0% 26.3% 52.7% +2.2 11
1899-11-18 @ St. Mirren D 2-2 1962 1687 52.7% 26.3% 21.0% -2.2 20
1899-11-25 St. Mirren W 3-1 1431 1689 22.8% 26.5% 50.7% +34.8 2
1899-11-25 @ Clyde L 1-3 1689 1431 50.7% 26.5% 22.8% -34.8 11
1899-11-25 Celtic L 1-2 1578 1879 18.6% 26.1% 55.4% -9.0 9
1899-11-25 @ Dundee W 2-1 1879 1578 55.4% 26.1% 18.6% +9.1 18
1899-11-25 Hibernian L 1-3 1960 1871 62.0% 26.2% 11.8% -42.6 20
1899-11-25 @ Heart of Midlothian W 3-1 1871 1960 11.8% 26.2% 62.0% +42.6 18
1899-11-25 St. Bernards W 4-3 2082 1547 79.9% 18.9% 1.2% +0.5 20
1899-11-25 @ Rangers L 3-4 1547 2082 1.2% 18.9% 79.9% -0.5 5
1899-11-25 Kilmarnock W 2-1 1690 1701 53.5% 26.9% 19.6% +9.6 11
1899-11-25 @ Third Lanark L 1-2 1701 1690 19.6% 26.9% 53.5% -9.6 12
1899-12-02 Dundee L 0-7 1466 1569 42.8% 27.1% 30.1% -112.2 2
1899-12-02 @ Clyde W 7-0 1569 1466 30.1% 27.1% 42.8% +112.2 11
1899-12-02 Celtic D 1-1 1547 1888 15.3% 25.7% 59.1% +4.2 6
1899-12-02 @ St. Bernards D 1-1 1888 1547 59.1% 25.7% 15.3% -4.2 19
1899-12-02 Rangers L 1-3 1654 2082 9.9% 24.5% 65.6% -8.9 11
1899-12-02 @ St. Mirren W 3-1 2082 1654 65.6% 24.5% 9.9% +8.9 22
1899-12-02 Hibernian D 1-1 1700 1913 27.8% 26.8% 45.4% +1.6 12
1899-12-02 @ Third Lanark D 1-1 1913 1700 45.4% 26.8% 27.8% -1.6 19
1899-12-09 St. Mirren W 3-1 1883 1645 70.2% 24.4% 5.5% +5.2 21
1899-12-09 @ Celtic L 1-3 1645 1883 5.5% 24.4% 70.2% -5.2 11
1899-12-09 Clyde W 4-1 1918 1354 80.6% 18.3% 1.0% +1.2 22
1899-12-09 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-4 1354 1918 1.0% 18.3% 80.6% -1.2 2
1899-12-09 Kilmarnock W 6-1 2091 1691 76.0% 21.6% 2.4% +4.9 24
1899-12-09 @ Rangers L 1-6 1691 2091 2.4% 21.6% 76.0% -4.9 12
1899-12-09 Third Lanark W 4-0 1551 1701 36.3% 27.0% 36.7% +58.7 8
1899-12-09 @ St. Bernards L 0-4 1701 1551 36.7% 27.0% 36.3% -58.7 12
1899-12-16 Kilmarnock D 3-3 1889 1686 68.5% 24.9% 6.6% -4.0 22
1899-12-16 @ Celtic D 3-3 1686 1889 6.6% 24.9% 68.5% +4.0 13
1899-12-16 St. Bernards L 2-4 1353 1610 22.9% 26.5% 50.7% -16.7 2
1899-12-16 @ Clyde W 4-2 1610 1353 50.7% 26.5% 22.9% +16.7 10
1899-12-16 Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1681 1919 24.9% 26.6% 48.4% +2.1 12
1899-12-16 @ Dundee D 1-1 1919 1681 48.4% 26.6% 24.9% -2.1 23
1899-12-16 Third Lanark W 3-2 1912 1642 71.5% 23.9% 4.7% +2.4 21
1899-12-16 @ Hibernian L 2-3 1642 1912 4.7% 23.9% 71.5% -2.4 12
1899-12-16 St. Mirren W 4-1 2096 1640 77.7% 20.5% 1.8% +2.3 26
1899-12-16 @ Rangers L 1-4 1640 2096 1.8% 20.5% 77.7% -2.3 11
1899-12-23 Dundee D 1-1 1885 1683 68.5% 24.9% 6.6% -6.5 23
1899-12-23 @ Celtic D 1-1 1683 1885 6.6% 24.9% 68.5% +6.5 13
1899-12-23 Clyde W 5-0 1914 1336 81.0% 18.1% 1.0% +2.2 23
1899-12-23 @ Hibernian L 0-5 1336 1914 1.0% 18.1% 81.0% -2.2 2
1899-12-23 Heart of Midlothian W 3-2 1640 1917 20.8% 26.3% 52.8% +19.8 14
1899-12-23 @ Third Lanark L 2-3 1917 1640 52.8% 26.3% 20.8% -19.8 23
1899-12-30 Kilmarnock L 2-3 1334 1690 14.1% 25.5% 60.4% -6.8 2
1899-12-30 @ Clyde W 3-2 1690 1334 60.4% 25.5% 14.1% +6.8 15
1899-12-30 St. Mirren D 3-3 1626 1638 53.4% 26.9% 19.7% -2.0 11
1899-12-30 @ St. Bernards D 3-3 1638 1626 19.7% 26.9% 53.4% +2.0 12
1899-12-30 Dundee D 3-3 1660 1689 51.5% 27.0% 21.5% -1.7 15
1899-12-30 @ Third Lanark D 3-3 1689 1660 21.5% 27.0% 51.5% +1.7 14
1900-01-01 Rangers W 3-2 1878 2098 27.0% 26.7% 46.2% +17.6 25
1900-01-01 @ Celtic L 2-3 2098 1878 46.2% 26.7% 27.0% -17.6 26
1900-01-06 Kilmarnock D 3-3 1691 1697 54.0% 26.9% 19.2% -2.0 15
1900-01-06 @ Dundee D 3-3 1697 1691 19.2% 26.9% 54.0% +2.0 16
1900-01-06 St. Bernards D 1-1 1916 1624 72.3% 23.5% 4.1% -7.2 24
1900-01-06 @ Hibernian D 1-1 1624 1916 4.1% 23.5% 72.3% +7.2 12
1900-01-06 Third Lanark W 2-1 2081 1658 76.7% 21.1% 2.1% +1.1 28
1900-01-06 @ Rangers L 1-2 1658 2081 2.1% 21.1% 76.7% -1.1 15
1900-01-20 Third Lanark W 4-2 1327 1657 16.1% 25.8% 58.1% +35.3 4
1900-01-20 @ Clyde L 2-4 1657 1327 58.1% 25.8% 16.1% -35.3 15
1900-01-20 Rangers L 2-3 1689 2082 11.8% 25.0% 63.2% -5.8 15
1900-01-20 @ Dundee W 3-2 2082 1689 63.2% 25.0% 11.8% +5.8 30
1900-02-03 Rangers L 1-4 1632 2088 8.6% 24.1% 67.3% -11.0 12
1900-02-03 @ St. Bernards W 4-1 2088 1632 67.3% 24.1% 8.6% +11.0 32
1900-03-17 Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 1699 1897 29.8% 26.9% 43.3% +17.6 18
1900-03-17 @ Kilmarnock L 1-2 1897 1699 43.3% 26.9% 29.8% -17.6 23

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1899-11-25 11.78% Hibernian 1871 3 @ Heart of Midlothian 1960 1
2 1899-08-19 15.58% Kilmarnock 1774 1 @ St. Mirren 1809 0
3 1900-01-20 16.12% @ Clyde 1327 4 Third Lanark 1657 2
4 1899-09-30 18.14% Heart of Midlothian 1909 2 @ Celtic 1914 0
5 1899-10-14 20.08% Hibernian 1774 3 @ Kilmarnock 1758 0
6 1899-12-23 20.85% @ Third Lanark 1640 3 Heart of Midlothian 1917 2
7 1899-11-25 22.79% @ Clyde 1431 3 St. Mirren 1689 1
8 1900-01-01 27.04% @ Celtic 1878 3 Rangers 2098 2
9 1900-03-17 29.83% @ Kilmarnock 1699 2 Heart of Midlothian 1897 1
10 1899-12-02 30.06% Dundee 1569 7 @ Clyde 1466 0
11 1899-10-14 33.70% @ Dundee 1553 5 St. Mirren 1721 2
12 1899-10-28 35.04% @ Hibernian 1810 1 Heart of Midlothian 1969 0
13 1899-12-09 36.27% @ St. Bernards 1551 4 Third Lanark 1701 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1899-12-02 112.22 Dundee 7 1569 30.06% @ Clyde 0 1466 42.84% 27.10%
2 1899-10-14 61.10 Hibernian 3 1774 20.08% @ Kilmarnock 0 1758 52.99% 26.92%
3 1899-12-09 58.72 @ St. Bernards 4 1551 36.27% Third Lanark 0 1701 36.69% 27.04%
4 1899-08-26 44.88 @ Third Lanark 5 1664 40.31% St. Mirren 1 1785 32.60% 27.09%
5 1899-09-25 43.91 Celtic 3 1870 37.43% @ Third Lanark 0 1715 35.54% 27.02%
6 1899-09-30 43.61 Heart of Midlothian 2 1909 18.14% @ Celtic 0 1914 55.04% 26.83%
7 1899-11-25 42.58 Hibernian 3 1871 11.78% @ Heart of Midlothian 1 1960 62.02% 26.21%
8 1899-11-11 42.01 Hibernian 4 1833 49.76% @ St. Bernards 0 1584 23.71% 26.53%
9 1899-09-23 40.34 @ Dundee 3 1529 41.26% St. Bernards 0 1643 31.64% 27.10%
10 1899-09-23 36.40 Celtic 5 1834 58.75% @ Clyde 0 1497 15.55% 25.70%
11 1900-01-20 35.31 @ Clyde 4 1327 16.12% Third Lanark 2 1657 58.10% 25.78%
12 1899-11-25 34.81 @ Clyde 3 1431 22.79% St. Mirren 1 1689 50.74% 26.47%
13 1899-10-14 34.55 @ Dundee 5 1553 33.70% St. Mirren 2 1721 39.32% 26.98%
14 1899-09-23 29.05 @ Hibernian 5 1745 54.58% St. Mirren 1 1745 18.57% 26.85%
15 1899-08-19 28.87 Rangers 5 1992 55.17% @ Third Lanark 1 1692 18.73% 26.10%
16 1899-10-21 24.77 Rangers 2 2053 45.92% @ Hibernian 0 1835 27.33% 26.74%
17 1899-08-19 24.27 Kilmarnock 1 1774 15.58% @ St. Mirren 0 1809 57.78% 26.64%
18 1899-09-09 20.38 Heart of Midlothian 4 1869 43.62% @ St. Bernards 2 1669 29.54% 26.84%
19 1899-09-02 20.13 @ Hibernian 3 1734 47.94% Kilmarnock 1 1796 24.99% 27.07%
20 1899-12-23 19.77 @ Third Lanark 3 1640 20.85% Heart of Midlothian 2 1917 52.84% 26.31%
21 1899-09-09 18.82 @ Third Lanark 5 1696 67.48% Clyde 0 1515 7.34% 25.18%
22 1900-01-01 17.59 @ Celtic 3 1878 27.04% Rangers 2 2098 46.24% 26.73%
23 1900-03-17 17.57 @ Kilmarnock 2 1699 29.83% Heart of Midlothian 1 1897 43.32% 26.85%
24 1899-10-28 16.82 @ Hibernian 1 1810 35.04% Heart of Midlothian 0 1969 37.95% 27.01%
25 1899-12-16 16.66 St. Bernards 4 1610 50.66% @ Clyde 2 1353 22.87% 26.47%