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1898-99 Division One Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Rangers

36 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Rangers

8.62 points above expected

36 points · 27.38 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Dundee

9.43 points below expected

4 points · 13.43 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rangers 18 18 0 0 36 79 18 +61 27.4 +8.62
2 Heart of Midlothian 18 12 2 4 26 56 30 +26 23.6 +2.36
3 Celtic 18 11 2 5 24 51 33 +18 23.2 +0.84
4 Hibernian 18 10 3 5 23 42 43 -1 21.2 +1.82
5 St. Mirren 18 8 4 6 20 46 32 +14 19.2 +0.84
6 Third Lanark 18 7 3 8 17 33 38 -5 16.1 +0.88
7 St. Bernards 18 4 4 10 12 30 37 -7 14.3 -2.34
8 Clyde 18 4 4 10 12 23 48 -25 10.9 +1.07
9 Partick Thistle 18 2 2 14 6 19 58 -39 10.7 -4.66
10 Dundee 18 1 2 15 4 23 65 -42 13.4 -9.43

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rangers 1894 36 27.38 +8.62 100.0% 15 22 25 27 29 32 36
Heart of Midlothian 1729 26 23.64 +2.36 80.4% 10 18 21 24 26 29 34
Celtic 1681 24 23.16 +0.84 64.2% 8 17 21 23 26 29 34
St. Mirren 1642 20 19.16 +0.84 64.0% 4 13 17 19 22 25 31
Hibernian 1599 23 21.18 +1.82 74.8% 9 15 19 21 24 27 33
Third Lanark 1524 17 16.12 +0.88 65.4% 2 10 14 16 18 22 29
St. Bernards 1475 12 14.34 -2.34 30.5% 3 9 12 14 17 20 28
Clyde 1366 12 10.93 +1.07 68.7% 0 6 9 11 13 17 24
Dundee 1340 4 13.43 -9.43 0.2% 3 8 11 13 16 19 28
Partick Thistle 1336 6 10.66 -4.66 10.4% 0 5 8 11 13 16 24

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CEL CLY DUN HOM HIB PT RAN SB SM TL
Celtic —
1-1-0
4.50
2-0-0
4.57
1-1-0
2.77
0-0-2
3.17
2-0-0
4.71
0-0-2
1.97
2-0-0
3.75
1-0-1
3.89
2-0-0
3.94
Clyde
0-1-1
1.16
 —
2-0-0
2.18
0-1-1
1.12
0-1-1
1.13
2-0-0
3.09
0-0-2
0.57
0-0-2
2.48
0-1-1
1.42
0-0-2
1.75
Dundee
0-0-2
1.11
0-0-2
3.46
 —
0-0-2
0.83
0-0-2
1.91
1-0-1
3.40
0-0-2
0.84
0-2-0
2.64
0-0-2
1.86
0-0-2
2.56
Heart of Midlothian
0-1-1
2.87
1-1-0
4.55
2-0-0
4.86
 —
2-0-0
2.87
2-0-0
4.88
0-0-2
1.95
2-0-0
4.06
2-0-0
3.51
1-0-1
4.35
Hibernian
2-0-0
2.47
1-1-0
4.54
2-0-0
3.74
0-0-2
2.78
 —
1-1-0
4.27
0-0-2
1.55
2-0-0
4.11
1-0-1
3.18
1-1-0
3.64
Partick Thistle
0-0-2
0.96
0-0-2
2.55
1-0-1
2.24
0-0-2
0.80
0-1-1
1.39
 —
0-0-2
0.84
1-0-1
2.17
0-1-1
1.65
0-0-2
1.84
Rangers
2-0-0
3.68
2-0-0
5.15
2-0-0
4.85
2-0-0
3.70
2-0-0
4.11
2-0-0
4.85
 —
2-0-0
4.65
2-0-0
4.24
2-0-0
4.36
St. Bernards
0-0-2
1.90
2-0-0
3.16
0-2-0
3.01
0-0-2
1.60
0-0-2
1.55
1-0-1
3.48
0-0-2
1.03
 —
0-1-1
1.81
1-1-0
2.42
St. Mirren
1-0-1
1.76
1-1-0
4.24
2-0-0
3.79
0-0-2
2.13
1-0-1
2.46
1-1-0
4.01
0-0-2
1.42
1-1-0
3.84
 —
1-1-0
3.39
Third Lanark
0-0-2
1.71
2-0-0
3.89
2-0-0
3.08
1-0-1
1.31
0-1-1
2.00
2-0-0
3.80
0-0-2
1.30
0-1-1
3.22
0-1-1
2.25
 —

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.22%3.33%1.67%1.11%2.78%2.78%13.89%
13.33%4.44%5.00%6.11%5.56%2.78%27.22%
21.67%5.00%6.67%4.44%2.22%2.22%22.22%
31.11%6.11%4.44%1.11%1.67%1.11%15.56%
42.78%5.56%2.22%1.67%——12.22%
5+2.78%2.78%2.22%1.11%——8.89%
Total13.89%27.22%22.22%15.56%12.22%8.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.23
Mean allowed2.23
StdDev scored1.82
StdDev allowed1.82
Mean total goals/game4.47
Correlation (home vs away score)-0.281
Sample size (games)90
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%———11.11%—16.67%
15.56%—11.11%—5.56%—22.22%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
3——11.11%———11.11%
45.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
5+——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
Total16.67%22.22%38.89%5.56%16.67%—100%

Celtic — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.83
Mean allowed1.83
StdDev scored2.55
StdDev allowed1.29
Mean total goals/game4.67
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.098
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%5.56%27.78%
111.11%—11.11%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
2——11.11%5.56%—5.56%22.22%
3—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%16.67%22.22%22.22%11.11%11.11%100%

Clyde — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.28
Mean allowed2.67
StdDev scored1.07
StdDev allowed2.47
Mean total goals/game3.94
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.074
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%——11.11%22.22%
1—5.56%5.56%16.67%11.11%11.11%50.00%
2——5.56%—5.56%5.56%16.67%
3—————5.56%5.56%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total—16.67%16.67%16.67%16.67%33.33%100%

Dundee — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.28
Mean allowed3.61
StdDev scored1.23
StdDev allowed1.94
Mean total goals/game4.89
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.149
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
15.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
2—5.56%5.56%11.11%——22.22%
3—11.11%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
411.11%—5.56%———16.67%
5+—11.11%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
Total16.67%27.78%27.78%27.78%——100%

Heart of Midlothian — Summary Statistics

Mean scored3.11
Mean allowed1.67
StdDev scored1.53
StdDev allowed1.08
Mean total goals/game4.78
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.118
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%—5.56%5.56%16.67%
1—11.11%———5.56%16.67%
2—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
3—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
4—11.11%5.56%11.11%——27.78%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total5.56%44.44%16.67%11.11%11.11%11.11%100%

Hibernian — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.33
Mean allowed2.39
StdDev scored1.61
StdDev allowed2.33
Mean total goals/game4.72
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.445
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%—5.56%5.56%5.56%33.33%
1—5.56%—11.11%11.11%11.11%38.89%
25.56%—5.56%——5.56%16.67%
3——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%22.22%11.11%16.67%16.67%27.78%100%

Partick Thistle — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.06
Mean allowed3.22
StdDev scored1.00
StdDev allowed2.10
Mean total goals/game4.28
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.274
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1———————
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
35.56%11.11%16.67%———33.33%
45.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
5+22.22%—11.11%———33.33%
Total38.89%27.78%27.78%5.56%——100%

Rangers — Summary Statistics

Mean scored4.39
Mean allowed1.00
StdDev scored2.15
StdDev allowed0.97
Mean total goals/game5.39
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.311
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
1—11.11%5.56%16.67%——33.33%
2—5.56%5.56%11.11%—5.56%27.78%
35.56%———5.56%—11.11%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total11.11%27.78%22.22%27.78%5.56%5.56%100%

St. Bernards — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.67
Mean allowed2.06
StdDev scored1.24
StdDev allowed1.35
Mean total goals/game3.72
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.118
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
15.56%——5.56%5.56%—16.67%
25.56%5.56%16.67%11.11%5.56%—44.44%
3————5.56%—5.56%
45.56%11.11%————16.67%
5+—11.11%————11.11%
Total22.22%27.78%16.67%16.67%16.67%—100%

St. Mirren — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.56
Mean allowed1.78
StdDev scored1.69
StdDev allowed1.44
Mean total goals/game4.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.213
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
15.56%11.11%11.11%—16.67%—44.44%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%—27.78%
3—22.22%5.56%———27.78%
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%38.89%22.22%5.56%27.78%—100%

Third Lanark — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.83
Mean allowed2.11
StdDev scored0.86
StdDev allowed1.37
Mean total goals/game3.94
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.284
Games played18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Rangers 36 27.4 +8.62
2 Heart of Midlothian 26 23.6 +2.36
3 Hibernian 23 21.2 +1.82
4 Clyde 12 10.9 +1.07
5 Third Lanark 17 16.1 +0.88

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dundee 4 13.4 -9.43
2 Partick Thistle 6 10.7 -4.66
3 St. Bernards 12 14.3 -2.34
4 Celtic 24 23.2 +0.84
5 St. Mirren 20 19.2 +0.84

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rangers 18 Aug 20 – Jan 7 1 in 1,432
2 Celtic 8 Oct 8 – Dec 31 1 in 63
3 Hibernian 5 Sep 3 – Sep 26 1 in 44
4 Third Lanark 3 Dec 10 – Dec 24 1 in 16
5 Heart of Midlothian 5 Oct 29 – Dec 3 1 in 9

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dundee 10 Oct 8 – Dec 17 1 in 184
2 Partick Thistle 8 Aug 20 – Oct 15 1 in 132
3 St. Bernards 6 Oct 8 – Nov 12 1 in 68
4 Clyde 7 Nov 19 – Jan 7 1 in 28
5 Celtic 3 Sep 24 – Oct 1 1 in 23

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rangers 18 Aug 20 – Jan 7 1 in 25
2 Clyde 4 Oct 1 – Oct 29 1 in 24
3 Third Lanark 5 Nov 26 – Dec 24 1 in 19
4 Hibernian 6 Sep 3 – Oct 1 1 in 10
5 Celtic 8 Oct 8 – Dec 31 1 in 8

Longest Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dundee 13 Oct 8 – Jan 7 1 in 31
2 Hibernian 4 Nov 19 – Dec 10 1 in 25
3 Celtic 5 Sep 10 – Oct 1 1 in 20
4 Partick Thistle 8 Aug 20 – Oct 15 1 in 14
5 St. Bernards 6 Oct 8 – Nov 12 1 in 10

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Rangers67.48%20.70%7.73%3.03%0.77%0.24%0.05%———
Heart of Midlothian14.78%31.96%26.50%15.59%7.37%2.79%0.76%0.21%0.02%0.02%
Celtic11.34%27.36%27.03%18.69%9.91%3.92%1.35%0.27%0.09%0.04%
Hibernian4.56%12.25%19.82%26.31%21.02%10.20%3.89%1.45%0.40%0.10%
St. Mirren1.45%6.12%13.32%22.10%26.67%16.21%8.13%4.04%1.47%0.49%
Third Lanark0.28%1.03%3.39%8.01%16.53%26.60%21.06%12.95%7.05%3.10%
St. Bernards0.07%0.42%1.47%3.38%9.06%18.88%25.25%20.06%13.66%7.75%
Clyde——0.10%0.50%1.65%4.91%11.43%19.30%29.37%32.74%
Partick Thistle—0.02%0.10%0.54%1.13%4.01%8.71%17.13%27.41%40.95%
Dundee0.04%0.14%0.54%1.85%5.89%12.24%19.37%24.59%20.53%14.81%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Rangers 100% —
Heart of Midlothian 100% <0.1%
Celtic 100% <0.1%
Hibernian 99.9% 0.1%
St. Mirren 99.5% 0.5%
Third Lanark 96.9% 3.1%
St. Bernards 92.2% 7.8%
Dundee 85.2% 14.8%
Clyde 67.3% 32.7%
Partick Thistle 59.1% 40.9%

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1898-08-20 Third Lanark W 2-1 1697 1528 66.8% 17.2% 16.0% +4.4 3
1898-08-20 @ Celtic L 1-2 1528 1697 16.0% 17.2% 66.8% -4.4 0
1898-08-20 Partick Thistle W 6-2 1710 1468 72.2% 16.6% 11.2% +8.4 3
1898-08-20 @ Rangers L 2-6 1468 1710 11.2% 16.6% 72.2% -8.4 0
1898-08-20 Clyde D 2-2 1536 1391 64.7% 17.4% 17.9% -2.1 1
1898-08-20 @ St. Mirren D 2-2 1391 1536 17.9% 17.4% 64.7% +2.1 1
1898-08-27 Celtic D 0-0 1393 1701 13.6% 16.6% 69.8% +3.9 2
1898-08-27 @ Clyde D 0-0 1701 1393 69.8% 16.6% 13.6% -3.9 4
1898-08-27 Rangers L 1-3 1533 1718 24.2% 17.5% 58.2% -11.1 1
1898-08-27 @ St. Mirren W 3-1 1718 1533 58.2% 17.5% 24.2% +11.1 6
1898-08-27 Partick Thistle W 1-0 1523 1459 56.3% 17.8% 25.9% +7.2 3
1898-08-27 @ Third Lanark L 0-1 1459 1523 25.9% 17.8% 56.3% -7.2 0
1898-09-03 St. Mirren W 4-1 1697 1522 67.3% 17.2% 15.5% +10.5 7
1898-09-03 @ Celtic L 1-4 1522 1697 15.5% 17.2% 67.3% -10.5 1
1898-09-03 St. Bernards D 1-1 1535 1479 55.4% 17.8% 26.8% -1.7 1
1898-09-03 @ Dundee D 1-1 1479 1535 26.8% 17.8% 55.4% +1.7 1
1898-09-03 Rangers L 2-3 1633 1729 34.9% 17.9% 47.2% -8.3 0
1898-09-03 @ Heart of Midlothian W 3-2 1729 1633 47.2% 17.9% 34.9% +8.3 9
1898-09-03 Hibernian L 1-4 1452 1610 27.1% 17.7% 55.2% -17.3 0
1898-09-03 @ Partick Thistle W 4-1 1610 1452 55.2% 17.7% 27.1% +17.3 3
1898-09-03 Clyde W 3-1 1531 1396 63.7% 17.4% 18.9% +8.9 6
1898-09-03 @ Third Lanark L 1-3 1396 1531 18.9% 17.4% 63.7% -8.9 2
1898-09-10 Dundee W 1-0 1388 1533 28.6% 17.7% 53.7% +13.5 5
1898-09-10 @ Clyde L 0-1 1533 1388 53.7% 17.7% 28.6% -13.5 1
1898-09-10 Celtic W 2-1 1628 1708 37.1% 17.9% 45.0% +10.8 6
1898-09-10 @ Hibernian L 1-2 1708 1628 45.0% 17.9% 37.1% -10.8 7
1898-09-10 St. Bernards L 0-3 1435 1481 41.9% 17.9% 40.1% -29.7 0
1898-09-10 @ Partick Thistle W 3-0 1481 1435 40.1% 17.9% 41.9% +29.7 4
1898-09-10 Third Lanark W 4-1 1737 1539 69.1% 17.0% 13.9% +9.4 12
1898-09-10 @ Rangers L 1-4 1539 1737 13.9% 17.0% 69.1% -9.4 6
1898-09-10 Heart of Midlothian L 2-3 1512 1625 32.7% 17.8% 49.4% -7.9 1
1898-09-10 @ St. Mirren W 3-2 1625 1512 49.4% 17.8% 32.7% +7.9 3
1898-09-17 Hibernian L 2-4 1520 1639 32.0% 17.8% 50.2% -12.6 1
1898-09-17 @ Dundee W 4-2 1639 1520 50.2% 17.8% 32.0% +12.6 9
1898-09-17 Heart of Midlothian L 1-3 1511 1632 31.6% 17.8% 50.6% -14.0 4
1898-09-17 @ St. Bernards W 3-1 1632 1511 50.6% 17.8% 31.6% +14.0 6
1898-09-19 Celtic D 2-2 1646 1697 41.3% 17.9% 40.8% -0.0 7
1898-09-19 @ Heart of Midlothian D 2-2 1697 1646 40.8% 17.9% 41.3% +0.0 8
1898-09-19 Rangers L 0-2 1497 1747 17.9% 17.1% 64.9% -9.8 4
1898-09-19 @ St. Bernards W 2-0 1747 1497 64.9% 17.1% 17.9% +9.8 15
1898-09-24 Rangers L 0-4 1697 1757 40.0% 17.9% 42.1% -37.3 8
1898-09-24 @ Celtic W 4-0 1757 1697 42.1% 17.9% 40.0% +37.3 18
1898-09-24 Clyde W 4-0 1646 1401 72.5% 16.6% 11.0% +11.6 10
1898-09-24 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-4 1401 1646 11.0% 16.6% 72.5% -11.6 5
1898-09-24 St. Bernards W 4-3 1651 1487 66.4% 17.2% 16.3% +4.2 12
1898-09-24 @ Hibernian L 3-4 1487 1651 16.3% 17.2% 66.4% -4.1 4
1898-09-24 St. Mirren L 1-4 1405 1504 34.6% 17.9% 47.6% -21.3 0
1898-09-24 @ Partick Thistle W 4-1 1504 1405 47.6% 17.9% 34.6% +21.3 4
1898-09-24 Dundee W 3-1 1530 1507 51.3% 17.9% 30.8% +13.7 9
1898-09-24 @ Third Lanark L 1-3 1507 1530 30.8% 17.9% 51.3% -13.7 1
1898-09-26 Hibernian L 1-2 1659 1655 48.9% 17.9% 33.2% -11.7 8
1898-09-26 @ Celtic W 2-1 1655 1659 33.2% 17.9% 48.9% +11.7 15
1898-09-26 Rangers L 2-3 1544 1794 18.0% 17.1% 64.9% -4.6 9
1898-09-26 @ Third Lanark W 3-2 1794 1544 64.9% 17.1% 18.0% +4.6 21
1898-10-01 Hibernian D 2-2 1389 1667 15.8% 16.9% 67.3% +2.3 6
1898-10-01 @ Clyde D 2-2 1667 1389 67.3% 16.9% 15.8% -2.3 16
1898-10-01 Partick Thistle W 5-1 1494 1384 61.3% 17.6% 21.1% +17.9 4
1898-10-01 @ Dundee L 1-5 1384 1494 21.1% 17.6% 61.3% -17.9 0
1898-10-01 Heart of Midlothian W 3-1 1799 1658 64.3% 17.4% 18.3% +8.6 24
1898-10-01 @ Rangers L 1-3 1658 1799 18.3% 17.4% 64.3% -8.6 10
1898-10-01 Third Lanark W 4-2 1483 1539 40.4% 17.9% 41.6% +15.8 7
1898-10-01 @ St. Bernards L 2-4 1539 1483 41.6% 17.9% 40.4% -15.8 9
1898-10-01 Celtic W 4-0 1525 1648 31.5% 17.8% 50.7% +45.8 7
1898-10-01 @ St. Mirren L 0-4 1648 1525 50.7% 17.8% 31.5% -45.8 8
1898-10-08 St. Bernards W 1-0 1602 1498 60.7% 17.6% 21.7% +6.2 11
1898-10-08 @ Celtic L 0-1 1498 1602 21.7% 17.6% 60.7% -6.2 7
1898-10-08 Rangers L 1-2 1512 1807 14.5% 16.7% 68.8% -4.0 4
1898-10-08 @ Dundee W 2-1 1807 1512 68.8% 16.7% 14.5% +4.0 27
1898-10-08 Hibernian W 4-0 1649 1665 46.2% 17.9% 35.8% +34.1 13
1898-10-08 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-4 1665 1649 35.8% 17.9% 46.2% -34.1 16
1898-10-08 Clyde L 0-1 1366 1392 44.8% 17.9% 37.3% -11.5 0
1898-10-08 @ Partick Thistle W 1-0 1392 1366 37.3% 17.9% 44.8% +11.5 9
1898-10-08 St. Mirren D 2-2 1523 1571 41.7% 17.9% 40.4% -0.1 10
1898-10-08 @ Third Lanark D 2-2 1571 1523 40.4% 17.9% 41.7% +0.0 8
1898-10-15 Partick Thistle W 5-1 1684 1354 77.1% 15.7% 7.2% +6.4 16
1898-10-15 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-5 1354 1684 7.2% 15.7% 77.1% -6.4 0
1898-10-15 Dundee W 5-0 1631 1508 62.6% 17.5% 19.9% +25.1 19
1898-10-15 @ Hibernian L 0-5 1508 1631 19.9% 17.5% 62.6% -25.1 4
1898-10-15 St. Bernards W 2-1 1571 1492 58.0% 17.7% 24.3% +6.4 11
1898-10-15 @ St. Mirren L 1-2 1492 1571 24.3% 17.7% 58.0% -6.4 7
1898-10-22 Heart of Midlothian D 3-3 1403 1690 15.1% 16.8% 68.1% +2.0 10
1898-10-22 @ Clyde D 3-3 1690 1403 68.1% 16.8% 15.1% -2.0 17
1898-10-22 Third Lanark L 1-3 1482 1523 42.7% 17.9% 39.4% -18.0 4
1898-10-22 @ Dundee W 3-1 1523 1482 39.4% 17.9% 42.7% +18.0 13
1898-10-22 St. Mirren W 4-3 1656 1578 57.9% 17.7% 24.3% +6.0 22
1898-10-22 @ Hibernian L 3-4 1578 1656 24.3% 17.7% 57.9% -6.0 11
1898-10-22 Partick Thistle L 2-3 1486 1348 64.1% 17.4% 18.5% -14.3 7
1898-10-22 @ St. Bernards W 3-2 1348 1486 18.5% 17.4% 64.1% +14.3 3
1898-10-29 Partick Thistle W 3-1 1405 1362 53.8% 17.8% 28.3% +12.8 13
1898-10-29 @ Clyde L 1-3 1362 1405 28.3% 17.8% 53.8% -12.8 3
1898-10-29 Heart of Midlothian L 1-5 1662 1688 44.7% 17.9% 37.3% -34.2 22
1898-10-29 @ Hibernian W 5-1 1688 1662 37.3% 17.9% 44.7% +34.2 20
1898-10-29 Celtic L 2-3 1472 1608 29.7% 17.8% 52.5% -7.3 7
1898-10-29 @ St. Bernards W 3-2 1608 1472 52.5% 17.8% 29.7% +7.3 14
1898-10-29 Dundee W 5-1 1572 1465 61.0% 17.6% 21.4% +18.2 14
1898-10-29 @ St. Mirren L 1-5 1465 1572 21.4% 17.6% 61.0% -18.2 4
1898-11-05 Clyde W 9-2 1615 1418 69.1% 17.0% 13.9% +16.8 17
1898-11-05 @ Celtic L 2-9 1418 1615 13.9% 17.0% 69.1% -16.8 13
1898-11-05 St. Mirren L 1-7 1446 1590 28.9% 17.7% 53.4% -34.3 4
1898-11-05 @ Dundee W 7-1 1590 1446 53.4% 17.7% 28.9% +34.3 17
1898-11-05 St. Bernards W 3-1 1722 1464 73.2% 16.4% 10.3% +5.0 23
1898-11-05 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-3 1464 1722 10.3% 16.4% 73.2% -5.0 7
1898-11-05 Rangers L 0-5 1349 1811 6.3% 14.9% 78.8% -8.1 3
1898-11-05 @ Partick Thistle W 5-0 1811 1349 78.8% 14.9% 6.3% +8.1 30
1898-11-05 Hibernian L 1-4 1541 1628 36.3% 17.9% 45.8% -22.2 13
1898-11-05 @ Third Lanark W 4-1 1628 1541 45.8% 17.9% 36.3% +22.2 25
1898-11-12 Clyde L 1-3 1412 1401 49.7% 17.9% 32.3% -20.5 4
1898-11-12 @ Dundee W 3-1 1401 1412 32.3% 17.9% 49.7% +20.5 16
1898-11-12 Third Lanark W 2-1 1727 1519 69.9% 16.9% 13.2% +3.7 26
1898-11-12 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1519 1727 13.2% 16.9% 69.9% -3.7 13
1898-11-12 Hibernian L 1-3 1459 1650 23.6% 17.5% 58.9% -10.8 7
1898-11-12 @ St. Bernards W 3-1 1650 1459 58.9% 17.5% 23.6% +10.8 28
1898-11-12 Partick Thistle D 2-2 1624 1341 74.7% 16.2% 9.1% -3.1 18
1898-11-12 @ St. Mirren D 2-2 1341 1624 9.1% 16.2% 74.7% +3.1 4
1898-11-19 St. Bernards L 1-2 1422 1448 44.6% 17.9% 37.4% -10.8 16
1898-11-19 @ Clyde W 2-1 1448 1422 37.4% 17.9% 44.6% +10.8 10
1898-11-19 Celtic L 1-4 1392 1632 18.8% 17.2% 64.0% -12.4 4
1898-11-19 @ Dundee W 4-1 1632 1392 64.0% 17.2% 18.8% +12.4 20
1898-11-19 Rangers L 3-4 1661 1819 27.1% 17.7% 55.2% -6.5 28
1898-11-19 @ Hibernian W 4-3 1819 1661 55.2% 17.7% 27.1% +6.5 33
1898-11-19 Third Lanark W 4-1 1621 1515 60.9% 17.6% 21.5% +14.1 21
1898-11-19 @ St. Mirren L 1-4 1515 1621 21.5% 17.6% 60.9% -14.2 13
1898-11-26 Partick Thistle W 4-0 1645 1344 75.7% 16.0% 8.3% +8.9 23
1898-11-26 @ Celtic L 0-4 1344 1645 8.3% 16.0% 75.7% -8.9 4
1898-11-26 Dundee W 6-3 1731 1379 78.2% 15.4% 6.4% +3.5 29
1898-11-26 @ Heart of Midlothian L 3-6 1379 1731 6.4% 15.4% 78.2% -3.5 4
1898-11-26 Clyde W 8-0 1826 1411 80.8% 14.6% 4.6% +9.3 36
1898-11-26 @ Rangers L 0-8 1411 1826 4.6% 14.6% 80.8% -9.3 16
1898-11-26 Hibernian W 2-0 1635 1654 45.7% 17.9% 36.3% +18.2 24
1898-11-26 @ St. Mirren L 0-2 1654 1635 36.3% 17.9% 45.7% -18.2 28
1898-11-26 St. Bernards D 1-1 1501 1459 53.7% 17.8% 28.4% -1.5 14
1898-11-26 @ Third Lanark D 1-1 1459 1501 28.4% 17.8% 53.7% +1.5 11
1898-12-03 St. Mirren L 0-1 1402 1653 17.8% 17.1% 65.1% -5.1 16
1898-12-03 @ Clyde W 1-0 1653 1402 65.1% 17.1% 17.8% +5.1 27
1898-12-03 Heart of Midlothian L 2-5 1376 1734 10.6% 16.1% 73.3% -6.2 4
1898-12-03 @ Dundee W 5-2 1734 1376 73.3% 16.1% 10.6% +6.2 32
1898-12-03 Third Lanark D 1-1 1636 1500 63.9% 17.4% 18.7% -2.7 29
1898-12-03 @ Hibernian D 1-1 1500 1636 18.7% 17.4% 63.9% +2.7 15
1898-12-03 Celtic L 3-8 1336 1654 13.0% 16.5% 70.5% -10.5 4
1898-12-03 @ Partick Thistle W 8-3 1654 1336 70.5% 16.5% 13.0% +10.5 26
1898-12-03 St. Bernards W 5-2 1835 1461 79.2% 15.1% 5.7% +3.4 39
1898-12-03 @ Rangers L 2-5 1461 1835 5.7% 15.1% 79.2% -3.4 11
1898-12-10 Partick Thistle D 1-1 1633 1325 76.1% 15.9% 8.0% -4.3 30
1898-12-10 @ Hibernian D 1-1 1325 1633 8.0% 15.9% 76.1% +4.3 5
1898-12-10 Clyde W 4-1 1457 1396 56.0% 17.8% 26.3% +16.9 14
1898-12-10 @ St. Bernards L 1-4 1396 1457 26.3% 17.8% 56.0% -16.9 16
1898-12-10 Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 1503 1740 19.0% 17.2% 63.8% +15.0 18
1898-12-10 @ Third Lanark L 1-2 1740 1503 63.8% 17.2% 19.0% -15.0 32
1898-12-17 Heart of Midlothian W 3-2 1664 1726 39.7% 17.9% 42.3% +9.8 29
1898-12-17 @ Celtic L 2-3 1726 1664 42.3% 17.9% 39.7% -9.8 32
1898-12-17 Clyde W 2-1 1629 1380 72.7% 16.5% 10.8% +3.0 33
1898-12-17 @ Hibernian L 1-2 1380 1629 10.8% 16.5% 72.7% -3.0 16
1898-12-17 Third Lanark L 1-3 1329 1517 23.8% 17.5% 58.6% -10.9 5
1898-12-17 @ Partick Thistle W 3-1 1517 1329 58.6% 17.5% 23.8% +10.9 21
1898-12-17 Dundee W 7-0 1839 1369 82.7% 13.8% 3.5% +6.1 42
1898-12-17 @ Rangers L 0-7 1369 1839 3.5% 13.8% 82.7% -6.1 4
1898-12-17 St. Mirren D 0-0 1474 1658 24.3% 17.5% 58.2% +2.2 15
1898-12-17 @ St. Bernards D 0-0 1658 1474 58.2% 17.5% 24.3% -2.2 28
1898-12-24 Third Lanark L 2-3 1377 1528 27.9% 17.7% 54.4% -6.9 16
1898-12-24 @ Clyde W 3-2 1528 1377 54.4% 17.7% 27.9% +6.9 24
1898-12-24 St. Mirren W 4-2 1716 1656 55.8% 17.8% 26.4% +10.7 35
1898-12-24 @ Heart of Midlothian L 2-4 1656 1716 26.4% 17.8% 55.8% -10.7 28
1898-12-24 Hibernian W 10-0 1845 1632 70.2% 16.9% 12.9% +32.5 45
1898-12-24 @ Rangers L 0-10 1632 1845 12.9% 16.9% 70.2% -32.5 33
1898-12-24 Dundee D 2-2 1476 1363 61.7% 17.5% 20.8% -1.8 16
1898-12-24 @ St. Bernards D 2-2 1363 1476 20.8% 17.5% 61.7% +1.8 5
1898-12-31 Dundee W 2-0 1318 1365 41.8% 17.9% 40.2% +19.8 8
1898-12-31 @ Partick Thistle L 0-2 1365 1318 40.2% 17.9% 41.8% -19.8 5
1898-12-31 St. Mirren W 3-2 1877 1645 71.6% 16.7% 11.8% +3.1 48
1898-12-31 @ Rangers L 2-3 1645 1877 11.8% 16.7% 71.6% -3.1 28
1898-12-31 Celtic L 2-4 1535 1674 29.5% 17.8% 52.8% -11.8 24
1898-12-31 @ Third Lanark W 4-2 1674 1535 52.8% 17.8% 29.5% +11.8 32
1899-01-02 Celtic W 4-1 1880 1686 68.9% 17.0% 14.1% +9.6 51
1899-01-02 @ Rangers L 1-4 1686 1880 14.1% 17.0% 68.9% -9.6 32
1899-01-07 Dundee W 4-1 1676 1345 77.2% 15.6% 7.1% +4.9 35
1899-01-07 @ Celtic L 1-4 1345 1676 7.1% 15.6% 77.2% -4.9 5
1899-01-07 Rangers L 0-3 1370 1890 4.7% 14.1% 81.3% -3.7 16
1899-01-07 @ Clyde W 3-0 1890 1370 81.3% 14.1% 4.7% +3.7 54
1899-01-07 Heart of Midlothian L 0-1 1338 1726 9.2% 15.8% 75.1% -2.7 8
1899-01-07 @ Partick Thistle W 1-0 1726 1338 75.1% 15.8% 9.2% +2.7 38

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1898-10-22 18.53% Partick Thistle 1348 3 @ St. Bernards 1486 2
2 1898-12-10 19.02% @ Third Lanark 1503 2 Heart of Midlothian 1740 1
3 1898-09-10 28.60% @ Clyde 1388 1 Dundee 1533 0
4 1898-10-01 31.48% @ St. Mirren 1525 4 Celtic 1648 0
5 1898-11-12 32.34% Clyde 1401 3 @ Dundee 1412 1
6 1898-09-26 33.22% Hibernian 1655 2 @ Celtic 1659 1
7 1898-09-10 37.14% @ Hibernian 1628 2 Celtic 1708 1
8 1898-10-08 37.30% Clyde 1392 1 @ Partick Thistle 1366 0
9 1898-10-29 37.32% Heart of Midlothian 1688 5 @ Hibernian 1662 1
10 1898-11-19 37.39% St. Bernards 1448 2 @ Clyde 1422 1
11 1898-10-22 39.39% Third Lanark 1523 3 @ Dundee 1482 1
12 1898-12-17 39.71% @ Celtic 1664 3 Heart of Midlothian 1726 2
13 1898-09-10 40.13% St. Bernards 1481 3 @ Partick Thistle 1435 0
14 1898-10-01 40.43% @ St. Bernards 1483 4 Third Lanark 1539 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1898-10-01 45.75 @ St. Mirren 4 1525 31.48% Celtic 0 1648 50.71%
2 1898-09-24 37.32 Rangers 4 1757 42.10% @ Celtic 0 1697 39.96%
3 1898-11-05 34.26 St. Mirren 7 1590 53.36% @ Dundee 1 1446 28.90%
4 1898-10-29 34.17 Heart of Midlothian 5 1688 37.32% @ Hibernian 1 1662 44.72%
5 1898-10-08 34.09 @ Heart of Midlothian 4 1649 46.23% Hibernian 0 1665 35.82%
6 1898-12-24 32.48 @ Rangers 10 1845 70.23% Hibernian 0 1632 12.92%
7 1898-09-10 29.73 St. Bernards 3 1481 40.13% @ Partick Thistle 0 1435 41.92%
8 1898-10-15 25.12 @ Hibernian 5 1631 62.64% Dundee 0 1508 19.87%
9 1898-11-05 22.23 Hibernian 4 1628 45.83% @ Third Lanark 1 1541 36.27%
10 1898-09-24 21.34 St. Mirren 4 1504 47.57% @ Partick Thistle 1 1405 34.56%
11 1898-11-12 20.54 Clyde 3 1401 32.34% @ Dundee 1 1412 49.74%
12 1898-12-31 19.78 @ Partick Thistle 2 1318 41.84% Dundee 0 1365 40.21%
13 1898-11-26 18.18 @ St. Mirren 2 1635 45.72% Hibernian 0 1654 36.33%
14 1898-10-29 18.16 @ St. Mirren 5 1572 61.04% Dundee 1 1465 21.38%
15 1898-10-22 17.98 Third Lanark 3 1523 39.39% @ Dundee 1 1482 42.66%
16 1898-10-01 17.94 @ Dundee 5 1494 61.33% Partick Thistle 1 1384 21.10%
17 1898-09-03 17.34 Hibernian 4 1610 55.19% @ Partick Thistle 1 1452 27.14%
18 1898-12-10 16.88 @ St. Bernards 4 1457 55.95% Clyde 1 1396 26.26%
19 1898-11-05 16.77 @ Celtic 9 1615 69.10% Clyde 2 1418 13.92%
20 1898-10-01 15.76 @ St. Bernards 4 1483 40.43% Third Lanark 2 1539 41.63%
21 1898-12-10 14.96 @ Third Lanark 2 1503 19.02% Heart of Midlothian 1 1740 63.78%
22 1898-10-22 14.29 Partick Thistle 3 1348 18.53% @ St. Bernards 2 1486 64.06%
23 1898-11-19 14.15 @ St. Mirren 4 1621 60.88% Third Lanark 1 1515 21.53%
24 1898-09-17 13.97 Heart of Midlothian 3 1632 50.63% @ St. Bernards 1 1511 31.55%
25 1898-09-24 13.71 @ Third Lanark 3 1530 51.28% Dundee 1 1507 30.83%