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1898-99 Division One Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Rangers

36 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Rangers

6.43 points above expected

36 points · 29.57 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Dundee

7.58 points below expected

4 points · 11.58 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rangers 18 18 0 0 36 79 18 +61 29.57 +6.43
2 Heart of Midlothian 18 12 2 4 26 56 30 +26 25.06 +0.94
3 Celtic 18 11 2 5 24 51 33 +18 23.28 +0.72
4 Hibernian 18 10 3 5 23 42 43 -1 21.68 +1.32
5 St. Mirren 18 8 4 6 20 46 32 +14 20.49 -0.49
6 Third Lanark 18 7 3 8 17 33 38 -5 15.97 +1.03
7 St. Bernards 18 4 4 10 12 30 37 -7 13.88 -1.88
8 Clyde 18 4 4 10 12 23 48 -25 10.20 +1.80
9 Partick Thistle 18 2 2 14 6 19 58 -39 8.30 -2.30
10 Dundee 18 1 2 15 4 23 65 -42 11.58 -7.58

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rangers 2033 36 29.57 +6.43 100.0% 17 25 28 30 31 34 36
Heart of Midlothian 1813 26 25.06 +0.94 67.2% 13 20 23 25 27 30 36
Celtic 1705 24 23.28 +0.72 63.9% 10 18 21 23 26 29 34
St. Mirren 1704 20 20.49 -0.49 49.4% 7 15 18 21 23 26 32
Hibernian 1599 23 21.68 +1.32 71.1% 9 16 19 22 24 27 34
Third Lanark 1517 17 15.97 +1.03 67.8% 3 11 14 16 18 22 30
St. Bernards 1463 12 13.88 -1.88 35.3% 3 8 12 14 16 20 28
Clyde 1300 12 10.20 +1.80 77.1% 0 5 8 10 12 15 22
Partick Thistle 1246 6 8.30 -2.30 28.4% 0 4 6 8 10 13 21
Dundee 1206 4 11.58 -7.58 0.8% 2 7 9 12 14 17 23

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CEL CLY DUN HOM HIB PT RAN SB SM TL
Celtic —
1-1-0
4.70
2-0-0
4.96
1-1-0
2.45
0-0-2
3.21
2-0-0
5.03
0-0-2
1.59
2-0-0
3.50
1-0-1
4.10
2-0-0
4.12
Clyde
0-1-1
1.00
 —
2-0-0
2.25
0-1-1
0.78
0-1-1
0.82
2-0-0
3.75
0-0-2
0.38
0-0-2
2.58
0-1-1
1.02
0-0-2
1.41
Dundee
0-0-2
0.75
0-0-2
3.44
 —
0-0-2
0.43
0-0-2
1.53
1-0-1
3.61
0-0-2
0.49
0-2-0
2.44
0-0-2
1.17
0-0-2
2.18
Heart of Midlothian
0-1-1
3.24
1-1-0
4.93
2-0-0
5.28
 —
2-0-0
3.02
2-0-0
5.25
0-0-2
1.57
2-0-0
4.36
2-0-0
3.66
1-0-1
4.90
Hibernian
2-0-0
2.48
1-1-0
4.88
2-0-0
4.17
0-0-2
2.67
 —
1-1-0
4.64
0-0-2
1.08
2-0-0
4.49
1-0-1
3.03
1-1-0
3.78
Partick Thistle
0-0-2
0.68
0-0-2
1.95
1-0-1
2.08
0-0-2
0.46
0-1-1
1.06
 —
0-0-2
0.52
1-0-1
1.72
0-1-1
1.21
0-0-2
1.41
Rangers
2-0-0
4.11
2-0-0
5.34
2-0-0
5.23
2-0-0
4.13
2-0-0
4.62
2-0-0
5.19
 —
2-0-0
5.00
2-0-0
4.61
2-0-0
4.78
St. Bernards
0-0-2
2.19
2-0-0
3.11
0-2-0
3.26
0-0-2
1.34
0-0-2
1.20
1-0-1
3.98
0-0-2
0.70
 —
0-1-1
1.39
1-1-0
2.29
St. Mirren
1-0-1
1.60
1-1-0
4.68
2-0-0
4.53
0-0-2
2.04
1-0-1
2.67
1-1-0
4.49
0-0-2
1.09
1-1-0
4.31
 —
1-1-0
3.86
Third Lanark
0-0-2
1.57
2-0-0
4.29
2-0-0
3.52
1-0-1
0.80
0-1-1
1.92
2-0-0
4.29
0-0-2
0.92
0-1-1
3.40
0-1-1
1.84
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.92 +5.1
Allowed 0.83 -6.4
Differential 0.94 +3.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.22%3.33%1.67%1.11%2.78%2.78%13.89%
13.33%4.44%5.00%6.11%5.56%2.78%27.22%
21.67%5.00%6.67%4.44%2.22%2.22%22.22%
31.11%6.11%4.44%1.11%1.67%1.11%15.56%
42.78%5.56%2.22%1.67%——12.22%
5+2.78%2.78%2.22%1.11%——8.89%
Total13.89%27.22%22.22%15.56%12.22%8.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.23 2.23 +0.00
SD 1.82 1.82 2.93
CV 0.82 0.82 —
Max 10 10 +10
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%———11.11%—16.67%
15.56%—11.11%—5.56%—22.22%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
3——11.11%———11.11%
45.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
5+——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
Total16.67%22.22%38.89%5.56%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.83 1.83 +1.00
SD 2.55 1.29 2.97
CV 0.90 0.71 —
Max 9 4 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%5.56%27.78%
111.11%—11.11%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
2——11.11%5.56%—5.56%22.22%
3—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%16.67%22.22%22.22%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 2.67 -1.39
SD 1.07 2.47 2.77
CV 0.84 0.93 —
Max 3 9 +2
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%——11.11%22.22%
1—5.56%5.56%16.67%11.11%11.11%50.00%
2——5.56%—5.56%5.56%16.67%
3—————5.56%5.56%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total—16.67%16.67%16.67%16.67%33.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 3.61 -2.33
SD 1.23 1.94 2.45
CV 0.96 0.54 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 1 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
15.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
2—5.56%5.56%11.11%——22.22%
3—11.11%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
411.11%—5.56%———16.67%
5+—11.11%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
Total16.67%27.78%27.78%27.78%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.11 1.67 +1.44
SD 1.53 1.08 1.98
CV 0.49 0.65 —
Max 6 3 +4
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%—5.56%5.56%16.67%
1—11.11%———5.56%16.67%
2—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
3—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
4—11.11%5.56%11.11%——27.78%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total5.56%44.44%16.67%11.11%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.33 2.39 -0.06
SD 1.61 2.33 3.37
CV 0.69 0.98 —
Max 5 10 +5
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%—5.56%5.56%5.56%33.33%
1—5.56%—11.11%11.11%11.11%38.89%
25.56%—5.56%——5.56%16.67%
3——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%22.22%11.11%16.67%16.67%27.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 3.22 -2.17
SD 1.00 2.10 2.07
CV 0.95 0.65 —
Max 3 8 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1———————
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
35.56%11.11%16.67%———33.33%
45.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
5+22.22%—11.11%———33.33%
Total38.89%27.78%27.78%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 4.39 1.00 +3.39
SD 2.15 0.97 2.62
CV 0.49 0.97 —
Max 10 3 +10
Min 2 0 +1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
1—11.11%5.56%16.67%——33.33%
2—5.56%5.56%11.11%—5.56%27.78%
35.56%———5.56%—11.11%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total11.11%27.78%22.22%27.78%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 2.06 -0.39
SD 1.24 1.35 1.72
CV 0.74 0.66 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
15.56%——5.56%5.56%—16.67%
25.56%5.56%16.67%11.11%5.56%—44.44%
3————5.56%—5.56%
45.56%11.11%————16.67%
5+—11.11%————11.11%
Total22.22%27.78%16.67%16.67%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.56 1.78 +0.78
SD 1.69 1.44 2.44
CV 0.66 0.81 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
15.56%11.11%11.11%—16.67%—44.44%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%—27.78%
3—22.22%5.56%———27.78%
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%38.89%22.22%5.56%27.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 2.11 -0.28
SD 0.86 1.37 1.81
CV 0.47 0.65 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 1 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Rangers 36 29.57 +6.43
2 Clyde 12 10.20 +1.80
3 Hibernian 23 21.68 +1.32
4 Third Lanark 17 15.97 +1.03
5 Heart of Midlothian 26 25.06 +0.94

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dundee 4 11.58 -7.58
2 Partick Thistle 6 8.30 -2.30
3 St. Bernards 12 13.88 -1.88
4 St. Mirren 20 20.49 -0.49
5 Celtic 24 23.28 +0.72

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rangers 18 Aug 20 – Jan 7 1 in 223
2 Celtic 8 Oct 8 – Dec 31 1 in 71
3 Hibernian 5 Sep 3 – Sep 26 1 in 28
4 Third Lanark 3 Dec 10 – Dec 24 1 in 23
5 Partick Thistle 1 Oct 22 – Oct 22 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 St. Bernards 6 Oct 8 – Nov 12 1 in 95
2 Dundee 10 Oct 8 – Dec 17 1 in 44
3 Partick Thistle 8 Aug 20 – Oct 15 1 in 40
4 Heart of Midlothian 2 Dec 10 – Dec 17 1 in 35
5 Clyde 7 Nov 19 – Jan 7 1 in 19

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Clyde 4 Oct 1 – Oct 29 1 in 33
2 Third Lanark 5 Nov 26 – Dec 24 1 in 28
3 Celtic 8 Oct 8 – Dec 31 1 in 11
4 Rangers 18 Aug 20 – Jan 7 1 in 8
5 Hibernian 6 Sep 3 – Oct 1 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hibernian 4 Nov 19 – Dec 10 1 in 32
2 Celtic 5 Sep 10 – Oct 1 1 in 21
3 St. Bernards 6 Oct 8 – Nov 12 1 in 13
4 Dundee 13 Oct 8 – Jan 7 1 in 12
5 Heart of Midlothian 2 Dec 10 – Dec 17 1 in 9

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Rangers80.83%14.43%3.70%0.82%0.17%0.05%————
Heart of Midlothian11.21%43.71%26.24%12.62%5.09%0.95%0.14%0.04%——
Celtic4.81%23.26%31.12%23.06%13.04%3.69%0.84%0.13%0.05%—
Hibernian2.21%10.73%19.96%28.61%26.38%9.25%2.40%0.39%0.06%0.01%
St. Mirren0.87%7.28%16.55%27.06%30.62%12.27%4.00%1.07%0.20%0.08%
Third Lanark0.03%0.45%1.80%5.17%15.40%38.16%23.07%10.68%4.11%1.13%
St. Bernards0.04%0.14%0.55%2.04%6.55%22.66%33.23%20.38%10.27%4.14%
Clyde———0.15%0.84%4.33%13.12%24.65%33.66%23.25%
Partick Thistle———0.02%0.20%1.28%4.84%12.53%25.77%55.36%
Dundee——0.08%0.45%1.71%7.36%18.36%30.13%25.88%16.03%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+10.00%
Slight Edge
47.78%14.44%37.78%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 34.86 Elo pts.
152 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.53 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.23+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.5
One-Team Race
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
81%
Rangers, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.56/gm
Comfortable
00.210.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.55 * Some Luck: 2.55 to 3.83 * Lucky: 3.83 to 5.1 * Wild Swing: 5.1 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.7 * Close: 0.7 to 1.05 * Off: 1.05 to 1.4 * Way Off: 1.4 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.40 points
Some Luck
03.198
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.40
Pinpoint
00.882
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
100.00%
Rangers
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
0.80%
Dundee
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.29
Lopsided
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
2.31
Wide Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
89%
Wide Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
99%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
43%
Frequent
0%39%100%
Blowouts
Expected
37%
Very Frequent
0%40%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.41
Highly Predictable
00.472
Matchup Imbalance
0.56
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.32
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.89
Near-Lock
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
11%
Chalky
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
8%
Solid Favorites
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.36
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.66
Very Underconfident
0.1479771.001.85202
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.100
Well Within Noise
00.1600.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Celtic 100% —
Heart of Midlothian 100% —
Rangers 100% —
Hibernian 99.99% 0.01%
St. Mirren 99.92% 0.08%
Third Lanark 98.87% 1.13%
St. Bernards 95.86% 4.14%
Dundee 83.97% 16.03%
Clyde 76.75% 23.25%
Partick Thistle 44.64% 55.36%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1898-08-20 Third Lanark W 2-1 1754 1527 72.4% 15.1% 12.5% +7.5 2
1898-08-20 @ Celtic L 1-2 1527 1754 12.5% 15.1% 72.4% -7.5 0
1898-08-20 Partick Thistle W 6-2 1778 1418 79.0% 14.8% 6.2% +10.3 2
1898-08-20 @ Rangers L 2-6 1418 1778 6.2% 14.8% 79.0% -10.3 0
1898-08-20 Clyde D 2-2 1534 1326 71.1% 15.1% 13.7% -5.8 1
1898-08-20 @ St. Mirren D 2-2 1326 1534 13.7% 15.1% 71.1% +5.8 1
1898-08-27 Celtic D 0-0 1332 1761 7.5% 14.8% 77.7% +10.9 2
1898-08-27 @ Clyde D 0-0 1761 1332 77.7% 14.8% 7.5% -10.9 3
1898-08-27 Rangers L 1-3 1528 1788 17.9% 15.2% 67.0% -18.1 1
1898-08-27 @ St. Mirren W 3-1 1788 1528 67.0% 15.2% 17.9% +18.1 4
1898-08-27 Partick Thistle W 1-0 1519 1407 62.9% 15.2% 21.8% +13.3 2
1898-08-27 @ Third Lanark L 0-1 1407 1519 21.8% 15.2% 62.9% -13.3 0
1898-09-03 St. Mirren W 4-1 1750 1510 73.2% 15.1% 11.7% +17.2 5
1898-09-03 @ Celtic L 1-4 1510 1750 11.7% 15.1% 73.2% -17.2 1
1898-09-03 St. Bernards D 1-1 1521 1453 58.1% 15.3% 26.6% -4.1 1
1898-09-03 @ Dundee D 1-1 1453 1521 26.6% 15.3% 58.1% +4.1 1
1898-09-03 Rangers L 2-3 1658 1806 29.5% 15.3% 55.2% -15.6 0
1898-09-03 @ Heart of Midlothian W 3-2 1806 1658 55.2% 15.3% 29.5% +15.6 6
1898-09-03 Hibernian L 1-4 1394 1617 21.2% 15.2% 63.6% -30.0 0
1898-09-03 @ Partick Thistle W 4-1 1617 1394 63.6% 15.2% 21.2% +30.0 2
1898-09-03 Clyde W 3-1 1533 1343 69.8% 15.2% 15.0% +15.4 4
1898-09-03 @ Third Lanark L 1-3 1343 1533 15.0% 15.2% 69.8% -15.5 2
1898-09-10 Dundee W 1-0 1327 1517 24.7% 15.2% 60.1% +32.8 4
1898-09-10 @ Clyde L 0-1 1517 1327 60.1% 15.2% 24.7% -32.8 1
1898-09-10 Celtic W 2-1 1647 1768 32.9% 15.3% 51.8% +26.8 4
1898-09-10 @ Hibernian L 1-2 1768 1647 51.8% 15.3% 32.9% -26.8 5
1898-09-10 St. Bernards L 0-3 1364 1457 36.6% 15.3% 48.1% -57.6 0
1898-09-10 @ Partick Thistle W 3-0 1457 1364 48.1% 15.3% 36.6% +57.6 3
1898-09-10 Third Lanark W 4-1 1822 1548 75.1% 15.0% 9.8% +14.6 8
1898-09-10 @ Rangers L 1-4 1548 1822 9.8% 15.0% 75.1% -14.6 4
1898-09-10 Heart of Midlothian L 2-3 1493 1642 29.3% 15.3% 55.4% -15.5 1
1898-09-10 @ St. Mirren W 3-2 1642 1493 55.4% 15.3% 29.3% +15.5 2
1898-09-17 Hibernian L 2-4 1484 1674 24.6% 15.2% 60.1% -21.7 1
1898-09-17 @ Dundee W 4-2 1674 1484 60.1% 15.2% 24.6% +21.7 6
1898-09-17 Heart of Midlothian L 1-3 1515 1658 30.1% 15.3% 54.6% -29.0 3
1898-09-17 @ St. Bernards W 3-1 1658 1515 54.6% 15.3% 30.1% +29.0 4
1898-09-19 Celtic D 2-2 1687 1741 42.1% 15.3% 42.6% +0.0 5
1898-09-19 @ Heart of Midlothian D 2-2 1741 1687 42.6% 15.3% 42.1% -0.1 6
1898-09-19 Rangers L 0-2 1486 1836 11.4% 15.0% 73.6% -13.7 3
1898-09-19 @ St. Bernards W 2-0 1836 1486 73.6% 15.0% 11.4% +13.7 10
1898-09-24 Rangers L 0-4 1741 1850 34.4% 15.3% 50.2% -71.4 6
1898-09-24 @ Celtic W 4-0 1850 1741 50.2% 15.3% 34.4% +71.4 12
1898-09-24 Clyde W 4-0 1687 1360 77.7% 14.9% 7.4% +17.3 7
1898-09-24 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-4 1360 1687 7.4% 14.9% 77.7% -17.3 4
1898-09-24 St. Bernards W 4-3 1695 1472 72.2% 15.1% 12.7% +7.1 8
1898-09-24 @ Hibernian L 3-4 1472 1695 12.7% 15.1% 72.2% -7.1 3
1898-09-24 St. Mirren L 1-4 1306 1478 26.7% 15.3% 58.0% -36.9 0
1898-09-24 @ Partick Thistle W 4-1 1478 1306 58.0% 15.3% 26.7% +36.9 3
1898-09-24 Dundee W 3-1 1534 1462 58.5% 15.3% 26.2% +25.6 6
1898-09-24 @ Third Lanark L 1-3 1462 1534 26.2% 15.3% 58.5% -25.6 1
1898-09-26 Hibernian L 1-2 1669 1703 45.1% 15.3% 39.6% -23.7 6
1898-09-26 @ Celtic W 2-1 1703 1669 39.6% 15.3% 45.1% +23.7 10
1898-09-26 Rangers L 2-3 1559 1921 10.7% 15.0% 74.3% -6.1 6
1898-09-26 @ Third Lanark W 3-2 1921 1559 74.3% 15.0% 10.7% +6.1 14
1898-10-01 Hibernian D 2-2 1343 1726 9.6% 14.9% 75.5% +6.8 5
1898-10-01 @ Clyde D 2-2 1726 1343 75.5% 14.9% 9.6% -6.8 11
1898-10-01 Partick Thistle W 5-1 1437 1270 68.0% 15.2% 16.8% +31.3 3
1898-10-01 @ Dundee L 1-5 1270 1437 16.8% 15.2% 68.0% -31.3 0
1898-10-01 Heart of Midlothian W 3-1 1927 1704 72.2% 15.1% 12.7% +13.2 16
1898-10-01 @ Rangers L 1-3 1704 1927 12.7% 15.1% 72.2% -13.2 7
1898-10-01 Third Lanark W 4-2 1465 1553 37.3% 15.3% 47.4% +38.3 5
1898-10-01 @ St. Bernards L 2-4 1553 1465 47.4% 15.3% 37.3% -38.3 6
1898-10-01 Celtic W 4-0 1514 1646 31.6% 15.3% 53.1% +104.3 5
1898-10-01 @ St. Mirren L 0-4 1646 1514 53.1% 15.3% 31.6% -104.3 6
1898-10-08 St. Bernards W 1-0 1541 1503 54.6% 15.3% 30.1% +17.8 8
1898-10-08 @ Celtic L 0-1 1503 1541 30.1% 15.3% 54.6% -17.8 5
1898-10-08 Rangers L 1-2 1468 1941 6.0% 14.7% 79.3% -3.7 3
1898-10-08 @ Dundee W 2-1 1941 1468 79.3% 14.7% 6.0% +3.7 18
1898-10-08 Hibernian W 4-0 1691 1719 45.7% 15.3% 39.0% +79.4 9
1898-10-08 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-4 1719 1691 39.0% 15.3% 45.7% -79.4 11
1898-10-08 Clyde L 0-1 1238 1350 34.2% 15.3% 50.5% -19.8 0
1898-10-08 @ Partick Thistle W 1-0 1350 1238 50.5% 15.3% 34.2% +19.8 7
1898-10-08 St. Mirren D 2-2 1515 1619 35.1% 15.3% 49.6% +1.3 7
1898-10-08 @ Third Lanark D 2-2 1619 1515 49.6% 15.3% 35.1% -1.4 6
1898-10-15 Partick Thistle W 5-1 1770 1218 83.6% 14.3% 2.2% +4.3 11
1898-10-15 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-5 1218 1770 2.2% 14.3% 83.6% -4.2 0
1898-10-15 Dundee W 5-0 1640 1464 68.7% 15.2% 16.1% +44.5 13
1898-10-15 @ Hibernian L 0-5 1464 1640 16.1% 15.2% 68.7% -44.6 3
1898-10-15 St. Bernards W 2-1 1617 1486 64.8% 15.2% 19.9% +11.6 8
1898-10-15 @ St. Mirren L 1-2 1486 1617 19.9% 15.2% 64.8% -11.6 5
1898-10-22 Heart of Midlothian D 3-3 1369 1775 8.5% 14.9% 76.6% +5.9 8
1898-10-22 @ Clyde D 3-3 1775 1369 76.6% 14.9% 8.5% -5.9 12
1898-10-22 Third Lanark L 1-3 1420 1516 36.2% 15.3% 48.5% -34.0 3
1898-10-22 @ Dundee W 3-1 1516 1420 48.5% 15.3% 36.2% +34.0 9
1898-10-22 St. Mirren W 4-3 1685 1629 56.7% 15.3% 28.0% +14.5 15
1898-10-22 @ Hibernian L 3-4 1629 1685 28.0% 15.3% 56.7% -14.5 8
1898-10-22 Partick Thistle L 2-3 1474 1214 74.4% 15.0% 10.5% -36.6 5
1898-10-22 @ St. Bernards W 3-2 1214 1474 10.5% 15.0% 74.4% +36.5 2
1898-10-29 Partick Thistle W 3-1 1375 1251 64.1% 15.2% 20.6% +20.6 10
1898-10-29 @ Clyde L 1-3 1251 1375 20.6% 15.2% 64.1% -20.7 2
1898-10-29 Heart of Midlothian L 1-5 1699 1769 39.9% 15.3% 44.8% -67.5 15
1898-10-29 @ Hibernian W 5-1 1769 1699 44.8% 15.3% 39.9% +67.5 14
1898-10-29 Celtic L 2-3 1438 1559 32.8% 15.3% 51.9% -17.1 5
1898-10-29 @ St. Bernards W 3-2 1559 1438 51.9% 15.3% 32.8% +17.1 10
1898-10-29 Dundee W 5-1 1614 1386 72.5% 15.1% 12.4% +23.5 10
1898-10-29 @ St. Mirren L 1-5 1386 1614 12.4% 15.1% 72.5% -23.5 3
1898-11-05 Clyde W 9-2 1576 1396 69.1% 15.2% 15.8% +40.5 12
1898-11-05 @ Celtic L 2-9 1396 1576 15.8% 15.2% 69.1% -40.5 10
1898-11-05 St. Mirren L 1-7 1362 1638 16.5% 15.1% 68.3% -44.6 3
1898-11-05 @ Dundee W 7-1 1638 1362 68.3% 15.1% 16.5% +44.6 12
1898-11-05 St. Bernards W 3-1 1836 1420 80.7% 14.7% 4.6% +4.9 16
1898-11-05 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-3 1420 1836 4.6% 14.7% 80.7% -4.9 5
1898-11-05 Rangers L 0-5 1230 1944 1.6% 13.9% 84.5% -4.5 2
1898-11-05 @ Partick Thistle W 5-0 1944 1230 84.5% 13.9% 1.6% +4.5 20
1898-11-05 Hibernian L 1-4 1550 1632 38.2% 15.3% 46.5% -50.4 9
1898-11-05 @ Third Lanark W 4-1 1632 1550 46.5% 15.3% 38.2% +50.4 17
1898-11-12 Clyde L 1-3 1318 1355 44.4% 15.3% 40.2% -40.5 3
1898-11-12 @ Dundee W 3-1 1355 1318 40.2% 15.3% 44.4% +40.5 12
1898-11-12 Third Lanark W 2-1 1841 1500 78.3% 14.9% 6.9% +4.2 18
1898-11-12 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1500 1841 6.9% 14.9% 78.3% -4.2 9
1898-11-12 Hibernian L 1-3 1416 1682 17.3% 15.2% 67.6% -17.5 5
1898-11-12 @ St. Bernards W 3-1 1682 1416 67.6% 15.2% 17.3% +17.5 19
1898-11-12 Partick Thistle D 2-2 1682 1226 81.8% 14.6% 3.7% -8.2 13
1898-11-12 @ St. Mirren D 2-2 1226 1682 3.7% 14.6% 81.8% +8.2 3
1898-11-19 St. Bernards L 1-2 1396 1398 49.4% 15.3% 35.3% -25.7 12
1898-11-19 @ Clyde W 2-1 1398 1396 35.3% 15.3% 49.4% +25.7 7
1898-11-19 Celtic L 1-4 1277 1617 12.0% 15.0% 73.0% -17.7 3
1898-11-19 @ Dundee W 4-1 1617 1277 73.0% 15.0% 12.0% +17.7 14
1898-11-19 Rangers L 3-4 1700 1949 18.8% 15.2% 66.1% -10.1 19
1898-11-19 @ Hibernian W 4-3 1949 1700 66.1% 15.2% 18.8% +10.1 22
1898-11-19 Third Lanark W 4-1 1674 1495 68.9% 15.2% 15.9% +23.0 15
1898-11-19 @ St. Mirren L 1-4 1495 1674 15.9% 15.2% 68.9% -23.0 9
1898-11-26 Partick Thistle W 4-0 1635 1234 80.3% 14.7% 5.0% +11.7 16
1898-11-26 @ Celtic L 0-4 1234 1635 5.0% 14.7% 80.3% -11.7 3
1898-11-26 Dundee W 6-3 1845 1260 84.0% 14.2% 1.8% +2.2 20
1898-11-26 @ Heart of Midlothian L 3-6 1260 1845 1.8% 14.2% 84.0% -2.2 3
1898-11-26 Clyde W 8-0 1959 1370 84.1% 14.1% 1.8% +8.0 24
1898-11-26 @ Rangers L 0-8 1370 1959 1.8% 14.1% 84.1% -8.0 12
1898-11-26 Hibernian W 2-0 1697 1689 50.7% 15.3% 34.0% +37.2 17
1898-11-26 @ St. Mirren L 0-2 1689 1697 34.0% 15.3% 50.7% -37.2 19
1898-11-26 St. Bernards D 1-1 1472 1424 55.9% 15.3% 28.8% -3.5 10
1898-11-26 @ Third Lanark D 1-1 1424 1472 28.8% 15.3% 55.9% +3.5 8
1898-12-03 St. Mirren L 0-1 1362 1734 10.2% 15.0% 74.9% -6.5 12
1898-12-03 @ Clyde W 1-0 1734 1362 74.9% 15.0% 10.2% +6.5 19
1898-12-03 Heart of Midlothian L 2-5 1257 1848 3.1% 14.4% 82.5% -4.1 3
1898-12-03 @ Dundee W 5-2 1848 1257 82.5% 14.4% 3.1% +4.1 22
1898-12-03 Third Lanark D 1-1 1652 1469 69.3% 15.2% 15.6% -7.3 20
1898-12-03 @ Hibernian D 1-1 1469 1652 15.6% 15.2% 69.3% +7.3 11
1898-12-03 Celtic L 3-8 1222 1646 7.7% 14.8% 77.4% -13.8 3
1898-12-03 @ Partick Thistle W 8-3 1646 1222 77.4% 14.8% 7.7% +13.8 18
1898-12-03 St. Bernards W 5-2 1967 1427 83.4% 14.3% 2.3% +3.0 26
1898-12-03 @ Rangers L 2-5 1427 1967 2.3% 14.3% 83.4% -3.1 8
1898-12-10 Partick Thistle D 1-1 1645 1208 81.3% 14.6% 4.1% -10.9 21
1898-12-10 @ Hibernian D 1-1 1208 1645 4.1% 14.6% 81.3% +10.9 4
1898-12-10 Clyde W 4-1 1424 1356 58.2% 15.3% 26.5% +36.6 10
1898-12-10 @ St. Bernards L 1-4 1356 1424 26.5% 15.3% 58.2% -36.6 12
1898-12-10 Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 1476 1852 10.0% 15.0% 75.1% +38.9 13
1898-12-10 @ Third Lanark L 1-2 1852 1476 75.1% 15.0% 10.0% -38.9 22
1898-12-17 Heart of Midlothian W 3-2 1660 1813 28.9% 15.3% 55.8% +27.3 20
1898-12-17 @ Celtic L 2-3 1813 1660 55.8% 15.3% 28.9% -27.3 22
1898-12-17 Clyde W 2-1 1634 1319 77.2% 14.9% 7.9% +4.8 23
1898-12-17 @ Hibernian L 1-2 1319 1634 7.9% 14.9% 77.2% -4.8 12
1898-12-17 Third Lanark L 1-3 1219 1515 15.0% 15.1% 69.9% -15.4 4
1898-12-17 @ Partick Thistle W 3-1 1515 1219 69.9% 15.1% 15.0% +15.4 15
1898-12-17 Dundee W 7-0 1970 1253 85.5% 13.7% 0.9% +3.4 28
1898-12-17 @ Rangers L 0-7 1253 1970 0.9% 13.7% 85.5% -3.4 3
1898-12-17 St. Mirren D 0-0 1461 1741 16.2% 15.1% 68.7% +7.9 11
1898-12-17 @ St. Bernards D 0-0 1741 1461 68.7% 15.1% 16.2% -7.9 20
1898-12-24 Third Lanark L 2-3 1314 1530 21.9% 15.2% 62.9% -11.9 12
1898-12-24 @ Clyde W 3-2 1530 1314 62.9% 15.2% 21.9% +11.9 17
1898-12-24 St. Mirren W 4-2 1785 1733 56.3% 15.3% 28.4% +24.6 24
1898-12-24 @ Heart of Midlothian L 2-4 1733 1785 28.4% 15.3% 56.3% -24.6 20
1898-12-24 Hibernian W 10-0 1973 1639 78.0% 14.9% 7.1% +39.5 30
1898-12-24 @ Rangers L 0-10 1639 1973 7.1% 14.9% 78.0% -39.6 23
1898-12-24 Dundee D 2-2 1469 1250 71.9% 15.1% 13.0% -6.0 12
1898-12-24 @ St. Bernards D 2-2 1250 1469 13.0% 15.1% 71.9% +6.0 4
1898-12-31 Dundee W 2-0 1204 1256 42.4% 15.3% 42.3% +44.9 6
1898-12-31 @ Partick Thistle L 0-2 1256 1204 42.3% 15.3% 42.4% -44.9 4
1898-12-31 St. Mirren W 3-2 2013 1708 76.7% 15.0% 8.3% +4.8 32
1898-12-31 @ Rangers L 2-3 1708 2013 8.3% 15.0% 76.7% -4.8 20
1898-12-31 Celtic L 2-4 1542 1687 29.8% 15.3% 54.9% -25.7 17
1898-12-31 @ Third Lanark W 4-2 1687 1542 54.9% 15.3% 29.8% +25.7 22
1899-01-02 Celtic W 4-1 2018 1713 76.7% 15.0% 8.3% +12.5 34
1899-01-02 @ Rangers L 1-4 1713 2018 8.3% 15.0% 76.7% -12.5 22
1899-01-07 Dundee W 4-1 1701 1211 82.5% 14.5% 3.1% +4.7 24
1899-01-07 @ Celtic L 1-4 1211 1701 3.1% 14.5% 82.5% -4.7 4
1899-01-07 Rangers L 0-3 1302 2030 1.5% 13.9% 84.7% -2.6 12
1899-01-07 @ Clyde W 3-0 2030 1302 84.7% 13.9% 1.5% +2.6 36
1899-01-07 Heart of Midlothian L 0-1 1249 1810 3.7% 14.5% 81.9% -2.4 6
1899-01-07 @ Partick Thistle W 1-0 1810 1249 81.9% 14.5% 3.7% +2.4 26

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1898-12-10 9.98% @ Third Lanark 1476 2 Heart of Midlothian 1852 1
2 1898-10-22 10.55% Partick Thistle 1214 3 @ St. Bernards 1474 2
3 1898-09-10 24.66% @ Clyde 1327 1 Dundee 1517 0
4 1898-12-17 28.90% @ Celtic 1660 3 Heart of Midlothian 1813 2
5 1898-10-01 31.56% @ St. Mirren 1514 4 Celtic 1646 0
6 1898-09-10 32.91% @ Hibernian 1647 2 Celtic 1768 1
7 1898-11-19 35.33% St. Bernards 1398 2 @ Clyde 1396 1
8 1898-10-01 37.31% @ St. Bernards 1465 4 Third Lanark 1553 2
9 1898-09-26 39.61% Hibernian 1703 2 @ Celtic 1669 1
10 1898-11-12 40.24% Clyde 1355 3 @ Dundee 1318 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1898-10-01 104.26 @ St. Mirren 4 1514 31.56% Celtic 0 1646 53.15% 15.29%
2 1898-10-08 79.38 @ Heart of Midlothian 4 1691 45.72% Hibernian 0 1719 38.96% 15.32%
3 1898-09-24 71.40 Rangers 4 1850 50.25% @ Celtic 0 1741 34.45% 15.30%
4 1898-10-29 67.47 Heart of Midlothian 5 1769 44.81% @ Hibernian 1 1699 39.87% 15.32%
5 1898-09-10 57.59 St. Bernards 3 1457 48.09% @ Partick Thistle 0 1364 36.60% 15.31%
6 1898-11-05 50.37 Hibernian 4 1632 46.50% @ Third Lanark 1 1550 38.19% 15.31%
7 1898-12-31 44.87 @ Partick Thistle 2 1204 42.38% Dundee 0 1256 42.30% 15.32%
8 1898-11-05 44.58 St. Mirren 7 1638 68.34% @ Dundee 1 1362 16.53% 15.14%
9 1898-10-15 44.55 @ Hibernian 5 1640 68.68% Dundee 0 1464 16.14% 15.18%
10 1898-11-12 40.53 Clyde 3 1355 40.24% @ Dundee 1 1318 44.44% 15.32%
11 1898-11-05 40.52 @ Celtic 9 1576 69.07% Clyde 2 1396 15.76% 15.17%
12 1898-12-24 39.55 @ Rangers 10 1973 77.99% Hibernian 0 1639 7.12% 14.89%
13 1898-12-10 38.86 @ Third Lanark 2 1476 9.98% Heart of Midlothian 1 1852 75.06% 14.96%
14 1898-10-01 38.34 @ St. Bernards 4 1465 37.31% Third Lanark 2 1553 47.38% 15.31%
15 1898-11-26 37.22 @ St. Mirren 2 1697 50.68% Hibernian 0 1689 34.01% 15.31%
16 1898-09-24 36.90 St. Mirren 4 1478 58.00% @ Partick Thistle 1 1306 26.74% 15.26%
17 1898-12-10 36.63 @ St. Bernards 4 1424 58.21% Clyde 1 1356 26.51% 15.29%
18 1898-10-22 36.55 Partick Thistle 3 1214 10.55% @ St. Bernards 2 1474 74.40% 15.05%
19 1898-10-22 34.00 Third Lanark 3 1516 48.52% @ Dundee 1 1420 36.18% 15.31%
20 1898-09-10 32.77 @ Clyde 1 1327 24.66% Dundee 0 1517 60.09% 15.24%
21 1898-10-01 31.30 @ Dundee 5 1437 67.99% Partick Thistle 1 1270 16.82% 15.19%
22 1898-09-03 29.97 Hibernian 4 1617 63.58% @ Partick Thistle 1 1394 21.21% 15.21%
23 1898-09-17 28.96 Heart of Midlothian 3 1658 54.64% @ St. Bernards 1 1515 30.08% 15.28%
24 1898-12-17 27.29 @ Celtic 3 1660 28.90% Heart of Midlothian 2 1813 55.82% 15.28%
25 1898-09-10 26.82 @ Hibernian 2 1647 32.91% Celtic 1 1768 51.79% 15.30%