1895-96 Division One Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Celtic

30 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Celtic

6.66 points above expected

30 points · 23.34 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Third Lanark

3.78 points below expected

15 points · 18.78 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Celtic	18	15	0	3	30	64	25	+39	23.34	+6.66
2	Rangers	18	11	4	3	26	57	39	+18	21.50	+4.50
3	Hibernian	18	11	2	5	24	58	39	+19	21.96	+2.04
4	Heart of Midlothian	18	11	0	7	22	68	36	+32	25.60	-3.60
5	Dundee	18	7	2	9	16	33	42	-9	15.58	+0.42
6	Third Lanark	18	7	1	10	15	47	51	-4	18.78	-3.78
7	St. Bernards	18	7	1	10	15	36	53	-17	15.48	-0.48
8	St. Mirren	18	5	3	10	13	31	51	-20	14.03	-1.03
9	Clyde	18	4	3	11	11	39	59	-20	12.76	-1.76
10	Dumbarton	18	4	0	14	8	36	74	-38	10.95	-2.95

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Celtic	1702	30	23.34	+6.66	98.0%	10	17	21	23	26	29	36
Heart of Midlothian	1652	22	25.60	-3.60	18.7%	13	20	23	26	28	31	36
Rangers	1622	26	21.50	+4.50	91.4%	4	15	19	22	24	28	34
Hibernian	1576	24	21.96	+2.04	75.1%	7	16	19	22	24	28	35
Third Lanark	1487	15	18.78	-3.78	19.0%	5	13	16	19	21	25	33
Dundee	1447	16	15.58	+0.42	59.5%	1	9	13	16	18	22	30
St. Mirren	1418	13	14.03	-1.03	44.9%	2	8	12	14	17	20	28
St. Bernards	1404	15	15.48	-0.48	50.5%	3	9	13	15	18	22	31
Clyde	1383	11	12.76	-1.76	37.4%	1	7	10	13	15	19	27
Dumbarton	1305	8	10.95	-2.95	25.2%	0	5	8	11	13	17	24

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	CEL	CLY	DUM	DUN	HOM	HIB	RAN	SB	SM	TL
Celtic	—	2-0-0 4.23	2-0-0 4.64	2-0-0 3.83	1-0-1 2.63	1-0-1 2.97	2-0-0 3.42	1-0-1 4.11	2-0-0 4.42	2-0-0 4.01
Clyde	0-0-2 1.58	—	1-0-1 3.14	1-0-1 2.37	0-0-2 1.12	0-0-2 1.56	0-2-0 1.35	2-0-0 2.30	0-1-1 2.87	0-0-2 2.03
Dumbarton	0-0-2 1.18	1-0-1 2.67	—	0-0-2 2.11	0-0-2 0.89	0-0-2 1.29	0-0-2 1.32	1-0-1 2.16	2-0-0 2.37	0-0-2 1.60
Dundee	0-0-2 1.98	1-0-1 3.45	2-0-0 3.70	—	1-0-1 1.23	0-1-1 1.99	0-0-2 1.84	1-0-1 2.82	0-1-1 3.14	2-0-0 2.45
Heart of Midlothian	1-0-1 3.18	2-0-0 4.69	2-0-0 4.93	1-0-1 4.59	—	1-0-1 3.75	0-0-2 3.58	2-0-0 4.34	1-0-1 4.48	1-0-1 4.02
Hibernian	1-0-1 2.84	2-0-0 4.25	2-0-0 4.53	1-1-0 3.82	1-0-1 2.06	—	0-1-1 3.16	1-0-1 4.15	2-0-0 4.00	1-0-1 3.23
Rangers	0-0-2 2.39	0-2-0 4.46	2-0-0 4.49	2-0-0 3.97	2-0-0 2.23	1-1-0 2.65	—	2-0-0 3.56	1-1-0 4.02	1-0-1 3.52
St. Bernards	1-0-1 1.70	0-0-2 3.51	1-0-1 3.65	1-0-1 2.99	0-0-2 1.47	1-0-1 1.67	0-0-2 2.26	—	2-0-0 2.95	1-1-0 2.23
St. Mirren	0-0-2 1.39	1-1-0 2.94	0-0-2 3.44	1-1-0 2.67	1-0-1 1.34	0-0-2 1.81	0-1-1 1.79	0-0-2 2.86	—	2-0-0 2.00
Third Lanark	0-0-2 1.80	2-0-0 3.78	2-0-0 4.22	0-0-2 3.37	1-0-1 1.79	1-0-1 2.58	1-0-1 2.29	0-1-1 3.58	0-0-2 3.82	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.70	+4.3
Allowed	0.86	-4.8
Differential	0.90	+2.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	1.11%	0.56%	2.22%	2.78%	1.67%	4.44%	12.78%
1	0.56%	2.22%	5.00%	6.11%	2.78%	3.33%	20.00%
2	2.22%	5.00%	3.33%	2.78%	2.78%	5.56%	21.67%
3	2.78%	6.11%	2.78%	1.11%	3.89%	0.56%	17.22%
4	1.67%	2.78%	2.78%	3.89%	1.11%	1.11%	13.33%
5+	4.44%	3.33%	5.56%	0.56%	1.11%	—	15.00%
Total	12.78%	20.00%	21.67%	17.22%	13.33%	15.00%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.61	2.61	+0.00
SD	2.00	2.00	3.30
CV	0.77	0.77	—
Max	11	11	+11
Min	0	0	-11

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%
1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2	—	16.67%	—	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
3	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
4	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
Total	27.78%	38.89%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.56	1.39	+2.17
SD	2.57	1.42	3.55
CV	0.72	1.02	—
Max	11	5	+11
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
1	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	22.22%
2	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	11.11%	27.78%
3	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	5.56%	22.22%	16.67%	16.67%	11.11%	27.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.17	3.28	-1.11
SD	1.65	2.40	3.22
CV	0.76	0.73	—
Max	5	9	+5
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%
1	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
2	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%	33.33%
3	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%
4	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
Total	—	5.56%	11.11%	27.78%	22.22%	33.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	4.11	-2.11
SD	1.37	2.00	2.56
CV	0.69	0.49	—
Max	5	9	+2
Min	0	1	-7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
1	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	22.22%	—	—	44.44%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	22.22%	22.22%	27.78%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.83	2.33	-0.50
SD	1.47	2.47	3.37
CV	0.80	1.06	—
Max	5	11	+5
Min	0	0	-11

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
1	—	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	22.22%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%
5+	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	38.89%
Total	33.33%	16.67%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.78	2.00	+1.78
SD	2.71	2.11	4.10
CV	0.72	1.06	—
Max	9	7	+8
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
1	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
2	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%
3	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	33.33%
4	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	22.22%
Total	5.56%	27.78%	33.33%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.22	2.17	+1.06
SD	1.90	1.29	2.58
CV	0.59	0.60	—
Max	7	5	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
1	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
3	—	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
4	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%
5+	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
Total	11.11%	33.33%	16.67%	16.67%	16.67%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.17	2.17	+1.00
SD	1.82	1.62	2.63
CV	0.58	0.75	—
Max	7	6	+6
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%	27.78%
1	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	16.67%
2	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
3	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	27.78%
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	11.11%	22.22%	11.11%	22.22%	22.22%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	2.94	-0.94
SD	1.61	1.80	2.80
CV	0.80	0.61	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%	—	16.67%	44.44%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
3	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	22.22%	16.67%	22.22%	16.67%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.72	2.83	-1.11
SD	0.96	1.79	2.35
CV	0.56	0.63	—
Max	3	7	+2
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	27.78%
1	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
2	—	—	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	22.22%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
Total	11.11%	—	44.44%	16.67%	16.67%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.61	2.83	-0.22
SD	2.33	1.89	3.28
CV	0.89	0.67	—
Max	7	7	+5
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Celtic	30	23.34	+6.66
2	Rangers	26	21.50	+4.50
3	Hibernian	24	21.96	+2.04
4	Dundee	16	15.58	+0.42
5	St. Bernards	15	15.48	-0.48

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Third Lanark	15	18.78	-3.78
2	Heart of Midlothian	22	25.60	-3.60
3	Dumbarton	8	10.95	-2.95
4	Clyde	11	12.76	-1.76
5	St. Mirren	13	14.03	-1.03

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Celtic	11	Sep 28 – Feb 29	1 in 208
2	Third Lanark	3	Nov 30 – Dec 14	1 in 19
3	St. Mirren	2	Mar 7 – Apr 4	1 in 11
4	Heart of Midlothian	5	Sep 7 – Oct 5	1 in 11
5	Dundee	2	Sep 7 – Sep 14	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	St. Bernards	6	Sep 21 – Oct 26	1 in 43
2	Hibernian	3	Nov 23 – Dec 7	1 in 40
3	Heart of Midlothian	3	Nov 23 – Dec 7	1 in 23
4	St. Mirren	5	Oct 5 – Nov 9	1 in 20
5	Third Lanark	3	Feb 29 – Apr 4	1 in 19

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Rangers	8	Sep 14 – Dec 7	1 in 56
2	St. Mirren	4	Dec 7 – Apr 4	1 in 45
3	Celtic	11	Sep 28 – Feb 29	1 in 42
4	Dundee	5	Aug 24 – Sep 21	1 in 24
5	Hibernian	6	Aug 17 – Sep 21	1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Hibernian	3	Nov 23 – Dec 7	1 in 16
2	St. Bernards	6	Sep 21 – Oct 26	1 in 16
3	St. Mirren	5	Aug 24 – Sep 21	1 in 13
4	Heart of Midlothian	3	Nov 23 – Dec 7	1 in 11
5	Third Lanark	3	Aug 31 – Sep 14	1 in 9

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Celtic	25.36%	26.75%	20.24%	13.56%	7.80%	3.72%	1.65%	0.59%	0.30%	0.03%
Rangers	9.75%	17.92%	22.01%	21.48%	14.21%	7.79%	3.96%	1.95%	0.75%	0.18%
Hibernian	12.32%	19.80%	22.78%	20.24%	12.19%	6.78%	3.56%	1.59%	0.56%	0.18%
Heart of Midlothian	48.96%	25.62%	13.84%	6.75%	2.99%	1.18%	0.47%	0.13%	0.05%	0.01%
Dundee	0.49%	1.48%	3.68%	6.91%	13.66%	19.41%	19.47%	16.46%	11.67%	6.77%
Third Lanark	2.49%	6.42%	11.65%	17.54%	23.17%	16.93%	11.13%	6.51%	3.02%	1.14%
St. Bernards	0.51%	1.07%	3.40%	6.66%	12.11%	18.02%	20.17%	17.36%	13.28%	7.42%
St. Mirren	0.07%	0.57%	1.39%	3.83%	7.25%	12.86%	17.92%	22.22%	19.95%	13.94%
Clyde	0.05%	0.32%	0.87%	2.32%	4.72%	9.03%	13.80%	19.77%	26.36%	22.76%
Dumbarton	—	0.05%	0.14%	0.71%	1.90%	4.28%	7.87%	13.42%	24.06%	47.57%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+11.11%

Slight Edge

51.11%8.89%40.00%

Elo Value

Home Edge

98 Elo

0.010 goals per Elo point

038.76250

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.61 goals

Home-Tilted

-2+0.39+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.0

Top-Heavy

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

25%

Celtic, 2nd of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.22/gm

Tight Race

00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.95 * Some Luck: 2.95 to 4.42 * Lucky: 4.42 to 5.89 * Wild Swing: 5.89 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.1 * Close: 1.1 to 1.65 * Off: 1.65 to 2.2 * Way Off: 2.2 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.31 points

Some Luck

03.689

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.80

Pinpoint

01.373

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

97.95%

Celtic

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

18.66%

Heart of Midlothian

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.21

Top-Heavy

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.68

Strong Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

76%

Clear Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

91%

Strong Edge

50%92%100%

Close Games

Expected

36%

Some Drama

0%35%100%

Blowouts

Expected

41%

Very Frequent

0%45%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.49

Highly Predictable

00.512

Matchup Imbalance

0.36

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.81

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.83

Strong Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

30%

As Expected

0%29%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

23%

As Expected

0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.

Probability calibration

0.37

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.18

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.100

Well Within Noise

00.1600.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Heart of Midlothian	99.99%	0.01%
Celtic	99.97%	0.03%
Hibernian	99.82%	0.18%
Rangers	99.82%	0.18%
Third Lanark	98.86%	1.14%
Dundee	93.23%	6.77%
St. Bernards	92.58%	7.42%
St. Mirren	86.06%	13.94%
Clyde	77.24%	22.76%
Dumbarton	52.43%	47.57%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1895-08-10	Celtic	L 1-2	1441	1589	32.9%	9.4%	57.7%	-5.1	0
1895-08-10	@ Dundee	W 2-1	1589	1441	57.7%	9.4%	32.9%	+5.1	2
1895-08-17	Clyde	W 3-0	1595	1403	74.4%	9.3%	16.3%	+7.6	4
1895-08-17	@ Celtic	L 0-3	1403	1595	16.3%	9.3%	74.4%	-7.6	0
1895-08-17	Rangers	L 3-5	1371	1555	28.5%	9.4%	62.1%	-6.5	0
1895-08-17	@ Dumbarton	W 5-3	1555	1371	62.1%	9.4%	28.5%	+6.5	2
1895-08-17	Dundee	W 4-2	1457	1436	56.3%	9.4%	34.3%	+8.1	2
1895-08-17	@ St. Bernards	L 2-4	1436	1457	34.3%	9.4%	56.3%	-8.1	0
1895-08-17	Heart of Midlothian	W 2-1	1464	1654	27.8%	9.4%	62.8%	+9.2	2
1895-08-17	@ St. Mirren	L 1-2	1654	1464	62.8%	9.4%	27.8%	-9.2	0
1895-08-17	Hibernian	L 2-7	1523	1538	51.4%	9.4%	39.2%	-24.7	0
1895-08-17	@ Third Lanark	W 7-2	1538	1523	39.2%	9.4%	51.4%	+24.7	2
1895-08-24	Heart of Midlothian	L 1-2	1395	1645	21.5%	9.3%	69.2%	-3.4	0
1895-08-24	@ Clyde	W 2-1	1645	1395	69.2%	9.3%	21.5%	+3.4	2
1895-08-24	Dumbarton	W 4-1	1428	1365	61.5%	9.4%	29.1%	+11.1	2
1895-08-24	@ Dundee	L 1-4	1365	1428	29.1%	9.4%	61.5%	-11.1	0
1895-08-24	Celtic	W 4-2	1562	1602	47.9%	9.4%	42.6%	+9.9	4
1895-08-24	@ Hibernian	L 2-4	1602	1562	42.6%	9.4%	47.9%	-9.9	4
1895-08-24	Third Lanark	L 0-4	1562	1498	61.6%	9.4%	29.0%	-34.4	2
1895-08-24	@ Rangers	W 4-0	1498	1562	29.0%	9.4%	61.6%	+34.4	2
1895-08-24	St. Bernards	L 1-3	1473	1465	54.5%	9.4%	36.1%	-14.0	2
1895-08-24	@ St. Mirren	W 3-1	1465	1473	36.1%	9.4%	54.5%	+13.9	4
1895-08-31	St. Mirren	W 4-0	1592	1459	69.2%	9.4%	21.5%	+12.9	6
1895-08-31	@ Celtic	L 0-4	1459	1592	21.5%	9.4%	69.2%	-12.9	2
1895-08-31	Clyde	W 5-4	1354	1392	48.2%	9.4%	42.4%	+5.8	2
1895-08-31	@ Dumbarton	L 4-5	1392	1354	42.4%	9.4%	48.2%	-5.8	0
1895-08-31	Hibernian	D 2-2	1439	1572	34.8%	9.4%	55.8%	+0.6	3
1895-08-31	@ Dundee	D 2-2	1572	1439	55.8%	9.4%	34.8%	-0.6	5
1895-08-31	Rangers	L 1-2	1648	1528	67.9%	9.4%	22.7%	-10.0	2
1895-08-31	@ Heart of Midlothian	W 2-1	1528	1648	22.7%	9.4%	67.9%	+10.0	4
1895-08-31	St. Bernards	D 0-0	1533	1479	60.3%	9.4%	30.2%	-1.3	3
1895-08-31	@ Third Lanark	D 0-0	1479	1533	30.2%	9.4%	60.3%	+1.3	5
1895-09-07	Dundee	L 0-1	1386	1439	46.0%	9.4%	44.6%	-7.3	0
1895-09-07	@ Clyde	W 1-0	1439	1386	44.6%	9.4%	46.0%	+7.3	5
1895-09-07	Third Lanark	W 3-0	1638	1531	66.5%	9.4%	24.1%	+11.0	4
1895-09-07	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-3	1531	1638	24.1%	9.4%	66.5%	-11.0	3
1895-09-07	Celtic	L 2-4	1538	1605	44.0%	9.4%	46.6%	-10.2	4
1895-09-07	@ Rangers	W 4-2	1605	1538	46.6%	9.4%	44.0%	+10.2	8
1895-09-07	Dumbarton	W 4-3	1481	1360	68.0%	9.4%	22.7%	+3.3	7
1895-09-07	@ St. Bernards	L 3-4	1360	1481	22.7%	9.4%	68.0%	-3.3	2
1895-09-07	Hibernian	L 1-3	1446	1572	35.9%	9.4%	54.7%	-9.5	2
1895-09-07	@ St. Mirren	W 3-1	1572	1446	54.7%	9.4%	35.9%	+9.5	7
1895-09-14	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-5	1615	1649	48.8%	9.4%	41.8%	-34.0	8
1895-09-14	@ Celtic	W 5-0	1649	1615	41.8%	9.4%	48.8%	+33.9	6
1895-09-14	St. Mirren	W 4-2	1356	1437	42.1%	9.4%	48.5%	+11.2	4
1895-09-14	@ Dumbarton	L 2-4	1437	1356	48.5%	9.4%	42.1%	-11.2	2
1895-09-14	Clyde	W 4-3	1581	1379	75.2%	9.3%	15.5%	+2.3	9
1895-09-14	@ Hibernian	L 3-4	1379	1581	15.5%	9.3%	75.2%	-2.3	0
1895-09-14	Rangers	L 3-4	1484	1527	47.4%	9.4%	43.2%	-6.5	7
1895-09-14	@ St. Bernards	W 4-3	1527	1484	43.2%	9.4%	47.4%	+6.5	6
1895-09-14	Dundee	L 3-4	1520	1447	62.8%	9.4%	27.8%	-8.6	3
1895-09-14	@ Third Lanark	W 4-3	1447	1520	27.8%	9.4%	62.8%	+8.5	7
1895-09-16	Celtic	W 3-0	1477	1581	38.8%	9.4%	51.7%	+22.3	9
1895-09-16	@ St. Bernards	L 0-3	1581	1477	51.7%	9.4%	38.8%	-22.3	8
1895-09-21	St. Mirren	D 1-1	1455	1426	57.3%	9.4%	33.2%	-0.9	8
1895-09-21	@ Dundee	D 1-1	1426	1455	33.2%	9.4%	57.3%	+0.9	3
1895-09-21	Dumbarton	W 7-2	1584	1368	76.2%	9.3%	14.5%	+7.5	11
1895-09-21	@ Hibernian	L 2-7	1368	1584	14.5%	9.3%	76.2%	-7.5	4
1895-09-21	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-5	1500	1683	28.6%	9.4%	62.0%	-20.8	9
1895-09-21	@ St. Bernards	W 5-0	1683	1500	62.0%	9.4%	28.6%	+20.8	8
1895-09-28	St. Bernards	W 5-0	1377	1479	39.0%	9.4%	51.5%	+35.7	2
1895-09-28	@ Clyde	L 0-5	1479	1377	51.5%	9.4%	39.0%	-35.8	9
1895-09-28	Celtic	L 2-3	1360	1559	26.8%	9.4%	63.8%	-4.0	4
1895-09-28	@ Dumbarton	W 3-2	1559	1360	63.8%	9.4%	26.8%	+4.0	10
1895-09-28	Hibernian	W 4-3	1704	1591	67.1%	9.4%	23.5%	+3.4	10
1895-09-28	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 3-4	1591	1704	23.5%	9.4%	67.1%	-3.4	11
1895-09-28	Dundee	W 3-1	1427	1454	49.6%	9.4%	40.9%	+10.7	5
1895-09-28	@ St. Mirren	L 1-3	1454	1427	40.9%	9.4%	49.6%	-10.7	8
1895-10-05	Hibernian	W 3-1	1563	1588	50.0%	9.4%	40.5%	+10.6	12
1895-10-05	@ Celtic	L 1-3	1588	1563	40.5%	9.4%	50.0%	-10.6	11
1895-10-05	St. Bernards	W 4-1	1443	1443	53.5%	9.4%	37.1%	+13.8	10
1895-10-05	@ Dundee	L 1-4	1443	1443	37.1%	9.4%	53.5%	-13.8	9
1895-10-05	Clyde	W 9-1	1707	1412	81.1%	9.2%	9.7%	+9.4	12
1895-10-05	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-9	1412	1707	9.7%	9.2%	81.1%	-9.4	2
1895-10-05	Rangers	L 1-7	1437	1534	39.9%	9.4%	50.7%	-27.7	5
1895-10-05	@ St. Mirren	W 7-1	1534	1437	50.7%	9.4%	39.9%	+27.7	8
1895-10-05	Dumbarton	W 5-2	1512	1356	71.3%	9.3%	19.4%	+6.5	5
1895-10-05	@ Third Lanark	L 2-5	1356	1512	19.4%	9.3%	71.3%	-6.5	4
1895-10-12	Celtic	L 1-5	1403	1574	30.1%	9.4%	60.5%	-14.7	2
1895-10-12	@ Clyde	W 5-1	1574	1403	60.5%	9.4%	30.1%	+14.7	14
1895-10-12	Heart of Midlothian	W 5-0	1457	1717	20.5%	9.3%	70.2%	+48.3	12
1895-10-12	@ Dundee	L 0-5	1717	1457	70.2%	9.3%	20.5%	-48.3	12
1895-10-12	St. Mirren	W 5-1	1577	1410	72.4%	9.3%	18.3%	+9.2	13
1895-10-12	@ Hibernian	L 1-5	1410	1577	18.3%	9.3%	72.4%	-9.2	5
1895-10-12	St. Bernards	W 2-0	1562	1429	69.1%	9.4%	21.5%	+6.8	10
1895-10-12	@ Rangers	L 0-2	1429	1562	21.5%	9.4%	69.1%	-6.8	9
1895-10-19	Heart of Midlothian	L 2-9	1350	1668	15.5%	9.2%	75.3%	-10.8	4
1895-10-19	@ Dumbarton	W 9-2	1668	1350	75.3%	9.2%	15.5%	+10.8	14
1895-10-19	Hibernian	L 2-5	1423	1586	31.0%	9.4%	59.6%	-10.2	9
1895-10-19	@ St. Bernards	W 5-2	1586	1423	59.6%	9.4%	31.0%	+10.1	15
1895-10-26	Dundee	W 11-0	1588	1506	63.8%	9.4%	26.8%	+41.4	16
1895-10-26	@ Celtic	L 0-11	1506	1588	26.8%	9.4%	63.8%	-41.4	12
1895-10-26	St. Bernards	W 4-3	1339	1412	43.1%	9.4%	47.5%	+6.6	6
1895-10-26	@ Dumbarton	L 3-4	1412	1339	47.5%	9.4%	43.1%	-6.6	9
1895-10-26	St. Mirren	W 5-1	1679	1400	80.2%	9.2%	10.6%	+5.4	16
1895-10-26	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-5	1400	1679	10.6%	9.2%	80.2%	-5.4	5
1895-10-26	Rangers	D 1-1	1596	1568	57.2%	9.4%	33.4%	-0.9	16
1895-10-26	@ Hibernian	D 1-1	1568	1596	33.4%	9.4%	57.2%	+0.9	11
1895-10-26	Clyde	W 6-2	1518	1388	68.9%	9.4%	21.7%	+9.2	7
1895-10-26	@ Third Lanark	L 2-6	1388	1518	21.7%	9.4%	68.9%	-9.2	2
1895-11-02	Dundee	W 2-0	1684	1464	76.5%	9.3%	14.2%	+4.5	18
1895-11-02	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-2	1464	1684	14.2%	9.3%	76.5%	-4.5	12
1895-11-02	Dumbarton	L 1-2	1395	1345	59.9%	9.4%	30.7%	-8.8	5
1895-11-02	@ St. Mirren	W 2-1	1345	1395	30.7%	9.4%	59.9%	+8.8	8
1895-11-09	Third Lanark	W 7-0	1630	1527	66.0%	9.4%	24.6%	+24.8	18
1895-11-09	@ Celtic	L 0-7	1527	1630	24.6%	9.4%	66.0%	-24.8	7
1895-11-09	Hibernian	L 1-3	1354	1595	22.3%	9.3%	68.4%	-6.1	8
1895-11-09	@ Dumbarton	W 3-1	1595	1354	68.4%	9.3%	22.3%	+6.1	18
1895-11-09	Clyde	D 4-4	1569	1379	74.3%	9.3%	16.4%	-1.2	12
1895-11-09	@ Rangers	D 4-4	1379	1569	16.4%	9.3%	74.3%	+1.2	3
1895-11-09	St. Mirren	W 4-3	1406	1386	56.1%	9.4%	34.5%	+4.9	11
1895-11-09	@ St. Bernards	L 3-4	1386	1406	34.5%	9.4%	56.1%	-4.9	5
1895-11-23	St. Mirren	L 1-3	1380	1381	53.3%	9.4%	37.3%	-13.7	3
1895-11-23	@ Clyde	W 3-1	1381	1380	37.3%	9.4%	53.3%	+13.7	7
1895-11-23	Third Lanark	W 2-0	1460	1503	47.5%	9.4%	43.1%	+13.0	14
1895-11-23	@ Dundee	L 0-2	1503	1460	43.1%	9.4%	47.5%	-13.0	7
1895-11-23	Celtic	L 1-4	1689	1654	58.0%	9.4%	32.6%	-20.9	18
1895-11-23	@ Heart of Midlothian	W 4-1	1654	1689	32.6%	9.4%	58.0%	+20.9	20
1895-11-23	Hibernian	W 4-0	1568	1602	48.8%	9.4%	41.8%	+23.9	14
1895-11-23	@ Rangers	L 0-4	1602	1568	41.8%	9.4%	48.8%	-23.9	18
1895-11-30	Rangers	L 1-3	1473	1592	36.7%	9.4%	53.9%	-9.7	14
1895-11-30	@ Dundee	W 3-1	1592	1473	53.9%	9.4%	36.7%	+9.7	16
1895-11-30	St. Bernards	L 2-3	1578	1411	72.3%	9.3%	18.3%	-10.1	18
1895-11-30	@ Hibernian	W 3-2	1411	1578	18.3%	9.3%	72.3%	+10.1	13
1895-11-30	Celtic	L 1-3	1395	1675	18.6%	9.3%	72.1%	-5.1	7
1895-11-30	@ St. Mirren	W 3-1	1675	1395	72.1%	9.3%	18.6%	+5.1	22
1895-11-30	Heart of Midlothian	W 5-4	1490	1668	29.2%	9.4%	61.4%	+8.3	9
1895-11-30	@ Third Lanark	L 4-5	1668	1490	61.4%	9.4%	29.2%	-8.2	18
1895-11-30	Dumbarton	W 5-1	1366	1348	55.9%	9.4%	34.7%	+16.8	5
1895-11-30	@ Clyde	L 1-5	1348	1366	34.7%	9.4%	55.9%	-16.8	8
1895-12-07	St. Bernards	W 2-1	1681	1421	79.2%	9.2%	11.6%	+1.9	24
1895-12-07	@ Celtic	L 1-2	1421	1681	11.6%	9.2%	79.2%	-1.9	13
1895-12-07	Dundee	L 1-2	1331	1463	35.1%	9.4%	55.5%	-5.4	8
1895-12-07	@ Dumbarton	W 2-1	1463	1331	55.5%	9.4%	35.1%	+5.4	16
1895-12-07	Third Lanark	L 2-5	1568	1498	62.3%	9.4%	28.3%	-19.5	18
1895-12-07	@ Hibernian	W 5-2	1498	1568	28.3%	9.4%	62.3%	+19.4	11
1895-12-07	Heart of Midlothian	W 7-2	1602	1660	45.3%	9.4%	45.3%	+22.0	18
1895-12-07	@ Rangers	L 2-7	1660	1602	45.3%	9.4%	45.3%	-22.0	18
1895-12-07	Clyde	D 2-2	1390	1383	54.3%	9.4%	36.2%	-0.5	8
1895-12-07	@ St. Mirren	D 2-2	1383	1390	36.2%	9.4%	54.3%	+0.5	6
1895-12-14	Rangers	W 6-2	1682	1624	61.0%	9.4%	29.6%	+12.3	26
1895-12-14	@ Celtic	L 2-6	1624	1682	29.6%	9.4%	61.0%	-12.3	18
1895-12-14	Third Lanark	L 2-4	1326	1517	27.7%	9.4%	63.0%	-6.7	8
1895-12-14	@ Dumbarton	W 4-2	1517	1326	63.0%	9.4%	27.7%	+6.7	13
1895-12-14	Clyde	L 1-2	1468	1384	64.0%	9.4%	26.6%	-9.4	16
1895-12-14	@ Dundee	W 2-1	1384	1468	26.6%	9.4%	64.0%	+9.4	8
1895-12-14	St. Bernards	W 6-0	1638	1419	76.5%	9.3%	14.3%	+12.7	20
1895-12-14	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-6	1419	1638	14.3%	9.3%	76.5%	-12.7	13
1895-12-21	Dumbarton	W 3-0	1695	1319	84.6%	9.0%	6.3%	+3.0	28
1895-12-21	@ Celtic	L 0-3	1319	1695	6.3%	9.0%	84.6%	-3.0	8
1895-12-21	Heart of Midlothian	W 3-2	1548	1650	39.0%	9.4%	51.5%	+7.2	20
1895-12-21	@ Hibernian	L 2-3	1650	1548	51.5%	9.4%	39.0%	-7.2	20
1895-12-21	Rangers	L 2-3	1524	1611	41.1%	9.4%	49.4%	-5.9	13
1895-12-21	@ Third Lanark	W 3-2	1611	1524	49.4%	9.4%	41.1%	+5.9	20
1896-01-04	Dumbarton	W 3-1	1617	1316	81.4%	9.2%	9.4%	+2.6	22
1896-01-04	@ Rangers	L 1-3	1316	1617	9.4%	9.2%	81.4%	-2.6	8
1896-01-18	Dundee	W 3-1	1555	1459	65.4%	9.4%	25.2%	+6.8	22
1896-01-18	@ Hibernian	L 1-3	1459	1555	25.2%	9.4%	65.4%	-6.8	16
1896-02-01	Hibernian	L 0-3	1393	1562	30.3%	9.4%	60.3%	-13.6	8
1896-02-01	@ Clyde	W 3-0	1562	1393	60.3%	9.4%	30.3%	+13.6	24
1896-02-01	Third Lanark	W 4-1	1406	1518	37.7%	9.4%	52.9%	+19.2	15
1896-02-01	@ St. Bernards	L 1-4	1518	1406	52.9%	9.4%	37.7%	-19.2	13
1896-02-08	Rangers	D 2-2	1380	1620	22.4%	9.3%	68.3%	+1.3	9
1896-02-08	@ Clyde	D 2-2	1620	1380	68.3%	9.3%	22.4%	-1.3	23
1896-02-15	Dumbarton	W 7-0	1643	1314	82.8%	9.1%	8.1%	+8.5	22
1896-02-15	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-7	1314	1643	8.1%	9.1%	82.8%	-8.5	8
1896-02-15	Clyde	L 1-4	1425	1381	59.3%	9.4%	31.3%	-21.4	15
1896-02-15	@ St. Bernards	W 4-1	1381	1425	31.3%	9.4%	59.3%	+21.4	11
1896-02-22	Third Lanark	L 2-7	1402	1499	39.8%	9.4%	50.7%	-19.6	11
1896-02-22	@ Clyde	W 7-2	1499	1402	50.7%	9.4%	39.8%	+19.6	15
1896-02-22	St. Mirren	D 3-3	1618	1389	77.2%	9.2%	13.6%	-1.6	24
1896-02-22	@ Rangers	D 3-3	1389	1618	13.6%	9.2%	77.2%	+1.6	9
1896-02-29	Dundee	W 3-1	1617	1452	72.2%	9.3%	18.5%	+5.1	26
1896-02-29	@ Rangers	L 1-3	1452	1617	18.5%	9.3%	72.2%	-5.1	16
1896-02-29	Celtic	L 1-2	1519	1698	29.1%	9.4%	61.5%	-4.5	15
1896-02-29	@ Third Lanark	W 2-1	1698	1519	61.5%	9.4%	29.1%	+4.5	30
1896-03-07	Third Lanark	W 3-2	1391	1514	36.2%	9.4%	54.4%	+7.6	11
1896-03-07	@ St. Mirren	L 2-3	1514	1391	54.4%	9.4%	36.2%	-7.6	15
1896-04-04	St. Mirren	L 0-2	1506	1399	66.6%	9.4%	24.0%	-19.6	15
1896-04-04	@ Third Lanark	W 2-0	1399	1506	24.0%	9.4%	66.6%	+19.6	13

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1895-11-30	18.34%	St. Bernards	1411	3	@ Hibernian	1578	2
2	1895-10-12	20.53%	@ Dundee	1457	5	Heart of Midlothian	1717	0
3	1895-08-31	22.72%	Rangers	1528	2	@ Heart of Midlothian	1648	1
4	1896-04-04	24.02%	St. Mirren	1399	2	@ Third Lanark	1506	0
5	1895-12-14	26.56%	Clyde	1384	2	@ Dundee	1468	1
6	1895-09-14	27.81%	Dundee	1447	4	@ Third Lanark	1520	3
7	1895-08-17	27.84%	@ St. Mirren	1464	2	Heart of Midlothian	1654	1
8	1895-12-07	28.28%	Third Lanark	1498	5	@ Hibernian	1568	2
9	1895-08-24	28.97%	Third Lanark	1498	4	@ Rangers	1562	0
10	1895-11-30	29.19%	@ Third Lanark	1490	5	Heart of Midlothian	1668	4
11	1895-11-02	30.69%	Dumbarton	1345	2	@ St. Mirren	1395	1
12	1896-02-15	31.33%	Clyde	1381	4	@ St. Bernards	1425	1
13	1895-11-23	32.59%	Celtic	1654	4	@ Heart of Midlothian	1689	1
14	1895-08-24	36.07%	St. Bernards	1465	3	@ St. Mirren	1473	1
15	1896-03-07	36.22%	@ St. Mirren	1391	3	Third Lanark	1514	2
16	1895-11-23	37.29%	St. Mirren	1381	3	@ Clyde	1380	1
17	1896-02-01	37.72%	@ St. Bernards	1406	4	Third Lanark	1518	1
18	1895-09-16	38.83%	@ St. Bernards	1477	3	Celtic	1581	0
19	1895-09-28	39.03%	@ Clyde	1377	5	St. Bernards	1479	0
20	1895-12-21	39.03%	@ Hibernian	1548	3	Heart of Midlothian	1650	2
21	1895-08-17	39.16%	Hibernian	1538	7	@ Third Lanark	1523	2
22	1895-09-14	41.80%	Heart of Midlothian	1649	5	@ Celtic	1615	0
23	1895-09-14	42.10%	@ Dumbarton	1356	4	St. Mirren	1437	2
24	1895-10-26	43.09%	@ Dumbarton	1339	4	St. Bernards	1412	3
25	1895-09-14	43.17%	Rangers	1527	4	@ St. Bernards	1484	3

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1895-10-12	48.28	@ Dundee	5	1457	20.53%	Heart of Midlothian	0	1717	70.16%	9.31%
2	1895-10-26	41.41	@ Celtic	11	1588	63.83%	Dundee	0	1506	26.77%	9.39%
3	1895-09-28	35.75	@ Clyde	5	1377	39.03%	St. Bernards	0	1479	51.55%	9.42%
4	1895-08-24	34.42	Third Lanark	4	1498	28.97%	@ Rangers	0	1562	61.63%	9.40%
5	1895-09-14	33.96	Heart of Midlothian	5	1649	41.80%	@ Celtic	0	1615	48.77%	9.43%
6	1895-10-05	27.67	Rangers	7	1534	50.73%	@ St. Mirren	1	1437	39.85%	9.42%
7	1895-11-09	24.80	@ Celtic	7	1630	66.01%	Third Lanark	0	1527	24.61%	9.38%
8	1895-08-17	24.71	Hibernian	7	1538	39.16%	@ Third Lanark	2	1523	51.41%	9.43%
9	1895-11-23	23.92	@ Rangers	4	1568	48.79%	Hibernian	0	1602	41.78%	9.43%
10	1895-09-16	22.28	@ St. Bernards	3	1477	38.83%	Celtic	0	1581	51.75%	9.42%
11	1895-12-07	21.99	@ Rangers	7	1602	45.28%	Heart of Midlothian	2	1660	45.29%	9.43%
12	1896-02-15	21.39	Clyde	4	1381	31.33%	@ St. Bernards	1	1425	59.26%	9.41%
13	1895-11-23	20.94	Celtic	4	1654	32.59%	@ Heart of Midlothian	1	1689	57.99%	9.42%
14	1895-09-21	20.78	Heart of Midlothian	5	1683	62.01%	@ St. Bernards	0	1500	28.61%	9.38%
15	1896-04-04	19.60	St. Mirren	2	1399	24.02%	@ Third Lanark	0	1506	66.60%	9.38%
16	1896-02-22	19.56	Third Lanark	7	1499	50.75%	@ Clyde	2	1402	39.83%	9.42%
17	1895-12-07	19.45	Third Lanark	5	1498	28.28%	@ Hibernian	2	1568	62.32%	9.40%
18	1896-02-01	19.17	@ St. Bernards	4	1406	37.72%	Third Lanark	1	1518	52.86%	9.42%
19	1895-11-30	16.81	@ Clyde	5	1366	55.89%	Dumbarton	1	1348	34.69%	9.42%
20	1895-10-12	14.73	Celtic	5	1574	60.51%	@ Clyde	1	1403	30.11%	9.39%
21	1895-08-24	13.95	St. Bernards	3	1465	36.07%	@ St. Mirren	1	1473	54.50%	9.42%
22	1895-10-05	13.84	@ Dundee	4	1443	53.49%	St. Bernards	1	1443	37.08%	9.43%
23	1895-11-23	13.66	St. Mirren	3	1381	37.29%	@ Clyde	1	1380	53.28%	9.43%
24	1896-02-01	13.63	Hibernian	3	1562	60.29%	@ Clyde	0	1393	30.33%	9.39%
25	1895-11-23	12.98	@ Dundee	2	1460	47.46%	Third Lanark	0	1503	43.11%	9.43%