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1896-97 Division One Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Heart of Midlothian

28 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Dundee

5.34 points above expected

22 points · 16.66 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Abercorn

6.98 points below expected

3 points · 9.98 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Heart of Midlothian 18 13 2 3 28 47 22 +25 24.16 +3.84
2 Hibernian 18 12 2 4 26 50 20 +30 23.48 +2.52
3 Rangers 18 11 3 4 25 64 30 +34 24.01 +0.99
4 Celtic 18 10 4 4 24 42 18 +24 25.55 -1.55
5 Dundee 18 10 2 6 22 38 30 +8 16.66 +5.34
6 St. Mirren 18 9 1 8 19 38 29 +9 16.74 +2.26
7 St. Bernards 18 7 0 11 14 32 40 -8 13.31 +0.69
8 Third Lanark 18 5 1 12 11 29 46 -17 15.83 -4.83
9 Clyde 18 4 0 14 8 27 65 -38 10.30 -2.30
10 Abercorn 18 1 1 16 3 21 88 -67 9.98 -6.98

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Heart of Midlothian 1754 28 24.16 +3.84 91.2% 11 19 22 24 26 29 35
Rangers 1718 25 24.01 +0.99 66.9% 11 19 22 24 26 29 34
Celtic 1696 24 25.55 -1.55 36.8% 13 20 23 26 28 31 36
Hibernian 1659 26 23.48 +2.52 81.9% 11 18 21 24 26 29 35
St. Mirren 1574 19 16.74 +2.26 79.0% 5 11 14 17 19 22 30
Dundee 1567 22 16.66 +5.34 95.6% 3 11 14 17 19 22 28
St. Bernards 1372 14 13.31 +0.69 65.3% 3 8 11 13 15 19 27
Third Lanark 1282 11 15.83 -4.83 10.3% 4 10 14 16 18 22 29
Clyde 1217 8 10.30 -2.30 28.4% 0 5 8 10 12 15 22
Abercorn 1061 3 9.98 -6.98 1.3% 0 5 8 10 12 15 22

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ABE CEL CLY DUN HOM HIB RAN SB SM TL
Abercorn —
0-0-2
1.44
0-0-2
3.03
0-0-2
1.03
0-0-2
0.82
0-1-1
1.09
0-0-2
1.02
0-0-2
2.08
1-0-1
1.83
0-0-2
1.75
Celtic
2-0-0
4.37
 —
2-0-0
4.32
0-1-1
4.71
1-1-0
3.42
0-1-1
3.38
0-1-1
3.45
2-0-0
4.67
1-0-1
4.28
2-0-0
4.88
Clyde
2-0-0
2.78
0-0-2
1.49
 —
0-0-2
1.65
0-0-2
0.58
0-0-2
1.45
0-0-2
0.70
0-0-2
2.41
1-0-1
1.52
1-0-1
2.03
Dundee
2-0-0
4.78
1-1-0
1.10
2-0-0
4.16
 —
0-1-1
1.98
1-0-1
1.64
1-0-1
1.50
1-0-1
3.64
1-0-1
2.81
1-0-1
2.48
Heart of Midlothian
2-0-0
4.99
0-1-1
2.39
2-0-0
5.24
1-1-0
3.83
 —
1-0-1
2.76
1-0-1
3.13
2-0-0
4.32
2-0-0
4.09
2-0-0
4.64
Hibernian
1-1-0
4.72
1-1-0
2.43
2-0-0
4.36
1-0-1
4.18
1-0-1
3.05
 —
1-0-1
2.90
2-0-0
4.44
1-0-1
4.39
2-0-0
3.96
Rangers
2-0-0
4.79
1-1-0
2.36
2-0-0
5.11
1-0-1
4.31
1-0-1
2.68
1-0-1
2.91
 —
1-0-1
4.95
1-1-0
4.27
1-1-0
3.79
St. Bernards
2-0-0
3.73
0-0-2
1.14
2-0-0
3.41
1-0-1
2.17
0-0-2
1.49
0-0-2
1.38
1-0-1
0.86
 —
0-0-2
2.45
1-0-1
2.52
St. Mirren
1-0-1
3.98
1-0-1
1.53
1-0-1
4.29
1-0-1
3.00
0-0-2
1.72
1-0-1
1.42
0-1-1
1.54
2-0-0
3.37
 —
2-0-0
3.45
Third Lanark
2-0-0
4.06
0-0-2
0.94
1-0-1
3.78
1-0-1
3.33
0-0-2
1.17
0-0-2
1.85
0-1-1
2.03
1-0-1
3.29
0-0-2
2.37
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.76 +5.9
Allowed 0.88 -3.6
Differential 0.94 +2.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—2.78%7.22%2.78%0.56%5.00%18.33%
12.78%4.44%5.00%5.00%2.22%4.44%23.89%
27.22%5.00%4.44%5.56%0.56%2.78%25.56%
32.78%5.00%5.56%—1.11%0.56%15.00%
40.56%2.22%0.56%1.11%——4.44%
5+5.00%4.44%2.78%0.56%——12.78%
Total18.33%23.89%25.56%15.00%4.44%12.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.16 2.16 +0.00
SD 1.91 1.91 3.11
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 9 9 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—5.56%—22.22%33.33%
1——5.56%5.56%—16.67%27.78%
2——5.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%27.78%
3——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total—5.56%16.67%16.67%5.56%55.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 4.89 -3.72
SD 1.04 2.49 2.72
CV 0.89 0.51 —
Max 3 9 +1
Min 0 1 -9

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
1—16.67%—5.56%——22.22%
211.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
311.11%—————11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+11.11%—5.56%———16.67%
Total33.33%38.89%22.22%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.33 1.00 +1.33
SD 2.03 0.91 2.47
CV 0.87 0.91 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%——16.67%27.78%
1——11.11%—11.11%11.11%33.33%
2———5.56%—11.11%16.67%
3—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total—16.67%27.78%5.56%11.11%38.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 3.61 -2.11
SD 1.54 2.12 2.99
CV 1.03 0.59 —
Max 6 7 +4
Min 0 1 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—————5.56%5.56%
111.11%—5.56%16.67%5.56%—38.89%
211.11%—11.11%———22.22%
311.11%—11.11%———22.22%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total33.33%11.11%27.78%16.67%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 1.67 +0.44
SD 1.60 1.53 2.64
CV 0.76 0.92 —
Max 7 5 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%5.56%—5.56%16.67%
111.11%5.56%————16.67%
25.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+11.11%16.67%5.56%———33.33%
Total27.78%44.44%16.67%5.56%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.61 1.22 +1.39
SD 2.03 1.26 2.79
CV 0.78 1.03 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
15.56%5.56%————11.11%
216.67%—5.56%———22.22%
35.56%16.67%——5.56%—27.78%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+11.11%5.56%————16.67%
Total38.89%33.33%11.11%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.78 1.11 +1.67
SD 2.37 1.23 2.93
CV 0.85 1.11 —
Max 9 4 +9
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
25.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%——27.78%
3—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+5.56%16.67%11.11%———33.33%
Total11.11%38.89%27.78%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.56 1.67 +1.89
SD 2.31 1.08 2.61
CV 0.65 0.65 —
Max 9 4 +7
Min 1 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%16.67%—5.56%—27.78%
1——5.56%5.56%5.56%—16.67%
2—11.11%—11.11%—5.56%27.78%
3——16.67%———16.67%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total5.56%22.22%38.89%16.67%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 2.22 -0.44
SD 1.63 1.26 2.43
CV 0.92 0.57 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
1——11.11%5.56%—5.56%22.22%
222.22%—5.56%11.11%——38.89%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total33.33%11.11%27.78%22.22%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 1.61 +0.50
SD 1.41 1.46 2.50
CV 0.67 0.91 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——22.22%5.56%——27.78%
1—5.56%5.56%11.11%—11.11%33.33%
2—5.56%—11.11%——16.67%
3—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
4———————
5+———5.56%——5.56%
Total—16.67%38.89%33.33%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 2.56 -0.94
SD 1.91 1.29 2.34
CV 1.19 0.51 —
Max 8 6 +5
Min 0 1 -5

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dundee 22 16.66 +5.34
2 Heart of Midlothian 28 24.16 +3.84
3 Hibernian 26 23.48 +2.52
4 St. Mirren 19 16.74 +2.26
5 Rangers 25 24.01 +0.99

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Abercorn 3 9.98 -6.98
2 Third Lanark 11 15.83 -4.83
3 Clyde 8 10.30 -2.30
4 Celtic 24 25.55 -1.55
5 St. Bernards 14 13.31 +0.69

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dundee 4 Nov 28 – Feb 20 1 in 96
2 St. Bernards 3 Nov 28 – Dec 26 1 in 57
3 St. Mirren 3 Feb 13 – Mar 13 1 in 16
4 Celtic 6 Aug 17 – Sep 26 1 in 12
5 Heart of Midlothian 7 Oct 31 – Feb 20 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Third Lanark 6 Nov 21 – Feb 20 1 in 93
2 Celtic 3 Dec 19 – Mar 13 1 in 66
3 Clyde 5 Aug 15 – Sep 5 1 in 28
4 Abercorn 8 Oct 31 – Jan 16 1 in 26
5 St. Mirren 2 Oct 17 – Oct 24 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dundee 4 Sep 12 – Oct 3 1 in 33
2 Celtic 14 Aug 17 – Dec 12 1 in 29
3 St. Bernards 3 Nov 28 – Dec 26 1 in 19
4 Heart of Midlothian 10 Oct 3 – Feb 20 1 in 13
5 Rangers 6 Sep 26 – Nov 7 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Third Lanark 6 Nov 21 – Feb 20 1 in 25
2 Celtic 3 Dec 19 – Mar 13 1 in 19
3 Abercorn 9 Aug 22 – Oct 17 1 in 15
4 Clyde 5 Aug 15 – Sep 5 1 in 11
5 Heart of Midlothian 3 Sep 5 – Sep 19 1 in 11

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Heart of Midlothian21.63%23.37%24.38%21.33%6.71%1.90%0.57%0.08%0.02%0.01%
Hibernian18.31%21.90%24.50%22.92%7.94%3.08%1.04%0.26%0.05%—
Rangers24.10%25.34%22.95%18.48%6.15%2.16%0.69%0.12%0.01%—
Celtic35.27%26.71%20.50%13.24%3.24%0.76%0.25%0.03%——
Dundee0.27%1.04%2.61%8.27%25.06%25.59%19.86%11.08%4.74%1.48%
St. Mirren0.32%1.00%2.83%8.54%26.59%25.34%18.42%10.65%4.62%1.69%
St. Bernards0.02%0.06%0.32%1.62%6.14%12.64%22.05%29.79%18.53%8.83%
Third Lanark0.08%0.56%1.90%5.35%16.20%22.72%24.25%17.96%8.38%2.60%
Clyde—0.01%0.01%0.14%1.01%3.03%6.90%16.45%35.97%36.48%
Abercorn—0.01%—0.11%0.96%2.78%5.97%13.58%27.68%48.91%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+33.33%
Strong Edge
62.22%8.89%28.89%
Elo Value
Home Edge
142 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0120.41400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.78 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.85+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.8
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
22%
Heart of Midlothian, 3rd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Photo Finish
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.62 * Some Luck: 2.62 to 3.93 * Lucky: 3.93 to 5.24 * Wild Swing: 5.24 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.93 * Close: 0.93 to 1.4 * Off: 1.4 to 1.86 * Way Off: 1.86 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.69 points
Some Luck
03.278
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Close
01.172.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
95.64%
Dundee
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
1.26%
Abercorn
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.25
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
2.01
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
90%
Wide Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
98%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
38%
Some Drama
0%37%100%
Blowouts
Expected
37%
Very Frequent
0%42%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.39
Highly Predictable
00.432
Matchup Imbalance
0.54
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.25
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.68
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
19%
Chalky
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
15%
Solid Favorites
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.98
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.17
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.096
Well Within Noise
00.1460.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Celtic 100% —
Hibernian 100% —
Rangers 100% —
Heart of Midlothian 99.99% 0.01%
Dundee 98.52% 1.48%
St. Mirren 98.31% 1.69%
Third Lanark 97.40% 2.60%
St. Bernards 91.17% 8.83%
Clyde 63.52% 36.48%
Abercorn 51.09% 48.91%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1896-08-15 St. Bernards L 1-2 1410 1419 67.2% 9.4% 23.4% -29.1 0
1896-08-15 @ Clyde W 2-1 1419 1410 23.4% 9.4% 67.2% +29.1 2
1896-08-15 Heart of Midlothian L 0-5 1447 1585 51.3% 9.4% 39.2% -104.6 0
1896-08-15 @ Dundee W 5-0 1585 1447 39.2% 9.4% 51.3% +104.7 2
1896-08-15 Celtic W 3-1 1528 1605 59.4% 9.4% 31.2% +24.5 2
1896-08-15 @ Hibernian L 1-3 1605 1528 31.2% 9.4% 59.4% -24.5 0
1896-08-15 St. Mirren W 5-1 1552 1429 78.2% 9.4% 12.4% +18.7 2
1896-08-15 @ Rangers L 1-5 1429 1552 12.4% 9.4% 78.2% -18.7 0
1896-08-17 Celtic L 2-7 1381 1580 42.6% 9.4% 47.9% -61.2 0
1896-08-17 @ Clyde W 7-2 1580 1381 47.9% 9.4% 42.6% +61.2 2
1896-08-19 Third Lanark W 2-0 1552 1473 75.1% 9.4% 15.5% +14.6 4
1896-08-19 @ Hibernian L 0-2 1473 1552 15.5% 9.4% 75.1% -14.6 0
1896-08-22 St. Bernards W 2-0 1641 1448 82.0% 9.3% 8.6% +8.3 4
1896-08-22 @ Celtic L 0-2 1448 1641 8.6% 9.3% 82.0% -8.3 2
1896-08-22 Hibernian W 3-0 1343 1567 39.1% 9.4% 51.5% +65.1 2
1896-08-22 @ Dundee L 0-3 1567 1343 51.5% 9.4% 39.1% -65.2 4
1896-08-22 Abercorn W 6-1 1690 1451 83.9% 9.3% 6.8% +12.7 4
1896-08-22 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-6 1451 1690 6.8% 9.3% 83.9% -12.7 0
1896-08-22 Clyde W 5-0 1410 1320 75.9% 9.4% 14.7% +32.4 2
1896-08-22 @ St. Mirren L 0-5 1320 1410 14.7% 9.4% 75.9% -32.4 0
1896-08-22 Rangers D 1-1 1459 1571 54.8% 9.4% 35.8% -2.1 1
1896-08-22 @ Third Lanark D 1-1 1571 1459 35.8% 9.4% 54.8% +2.1 3
1896-08-29 Celtic L 0-6 1439 1650 40.9% 9.4% 49.6% -101.0 0
1896-08-29 @ Abercorn W 6-0 1650 1439 49.6% 9.4% 40.9% +101.0 6
1896-08-29 Hibernian L 0-7 1288 1502 40.5% 9.4% 50.1% -115.8 0
1896-08-29 @ Clyde W 7-0 1502 1288 50.1% 9.4% 40.5% +115.8 6
1896-08-29 St. Mirren W 2-1 1703 1442 84.6% 9.3% 6.1% +2.9 6
1896-08-29 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1442 1703 6.1% 9.3% 84.6% -2.9 2
1896-08-29 Dundee W 3-1 1573 1408 80.6% 9.4% 10.0% +8.3 5
1896-08-29 @ Rangers L 1-3 1408 1573 10.0% 9.4% 80.6% -8.3 2
1896-08-29 Third Lanark L 2-3 1439 1456 66.3% 9.4% 24.2% -27.2 2
1896-08-29 @ St. Bernards W 3-2 1456 1439 24.2% 9.4% 66.3% +27.2 3
1896-09-05 Heart of Midlothian W 3-0 1751 1706 72.3% 9.4% 18.2% +24.8 8
1896-09-05 @ Celtic L 0-3 1706 1751 18.2% 9.4% 72.3% -24.8 6
1896-09-05 Rangers W 4-3 1618 1581 71.6% 9.4% 19.0% +8.2 8
1896-09-05 @ Hibernian L 3-4 1581 1618 19.0% 9.4% 71.6% -8.2 5
1896-09-05 Clyde W 4-1 1412 1172 83.9% 9.3% 6.7% +8.0 4
1896-09-05 @ St. Bernards L 1-4 1172 1412 6.7% 9.3% 83.9% -7.9 0
1896-09-05 Dundee W 4-1 1440 1400 71.9% 9.4% 18.7% +21.4 4
1896-09-05 @ St. Mirren L 1-4 1400 1440 18.7% 9.4% 71.9% -21.4 2
1896-09-05 Abercorn W 8-3 1484 1338 79.5% 9.4% 11.1% +15.4 5
1896-09-05 @ Third Lanark L 3-8 1338 1484 11.1% 9.4% 79.5% -15.4 0
1896-09-12 Hibernian D 2-2 1322 1626 28.8% 9.4% 61.8% +2.8 1
1896-09-12 @ Abercorn D 2-2 1626 1322 61.8% 9.4% 28.8% -2.8 9
1896-09-12 St. Mirren W 3-1 1164 1461 29.6% 9.4% 61.0% +45.7 2
1896-09-12 @ Clyde L 1-3 1461 1164 61.0% 9.4% 29.6% -45.7 4
1896-09-12 Third Lanark W 2-0 1378 1499 53.6% 9.4% 36.9% +33.1 4
1896-09-12 @ Dundee L 0-2 1499 1378 36.9% 9.4% 53.6% -33.1 5
1896-09-12 Heart of Midlothian W 5-0 1573 1681 55.4% 9.4% 35.1% +73.9 7
1896-09-12 @ Rangers L 0-5 1681 1573 35.1% 9.4% 55.4% -73.9 6
1896-09-12 Celtic L 1-2 1420 1776 23.1% 9.4% 67.5% -10.7 4
1896-09-12 @ St. Bernards W 2-1 1776 1420 67.5% 9.4% 23.1% +10.7 10
1896-09-19 Dundee D 2-2 1607 1411 82.1% 9.3% 8.6% -6.5 7
1896-09-19 @ Heart of Midlothian D 2-2 1411 1607 8.6% 9.3% 82.1% +6.5 5
1896-09-19 St. Bernards W 2-0 1623 1410 82.9% 9.3% 7.8% +7.5 11
1896-09-19 @ Hibernian L 0-2 1410 1623 7.8% 9.3% 82.9% -7.5 4
1896-09-19 Abercorn W 4-2 1415 1325 75.9% 9.4% 14.7% +10.7 6
1896-09-19 @ St. Mirren L 2-4 1325 1415 14.7% 9.4% 75.9% -10.7 1
1896-09-21 Rangers W 2-1 1600 1647 63.0% 9.4% 27.6% +12.6 9
1896-09-21 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1647 1600 27.6% 9.4% 63.0% -12.6 7
1896-09-26 Rangers L 2-9 1314 1634 26.9% 9.4% 63.7% -53.6 1
1896-09-26 @ Abercorn W 9-2 1634 1314 63.7% 9.4% 26.9% +53.6 9
1896-09-26 St. Mirren W 2-1 1786 1426 87.3% 9.2% 3.5% +1.7 12
1896-09-26 @ Celtic L 1-2 1426 1786 3.5% 9.2% 87.3% -1.7 6
1896-09-26 St. Bernards W 4-1 1418 1402 69.6% 9.4% 20.9% +23.9 7
1896-09-26 @ Dundee L 1-4 1402 1418 20.9% 9.4% 69.6% -23.9 4
1896-09-26 Heart of Midlothian W 2-0 1631 1613 69.8% 9.4% 20.8% +19.3 13
1896-09-26 @ Hibernian L 0-2 1613 1631 20.8% 9.4% 69.8% -19.3 9
1896-09-26 Clyde W 3-2 1466 1209 84.5% 9.3% 6.2% +2.8 7
1896-09-26 @ Third Lanark L 2-3 1209 1466 6.2% 9.3% 84.5% -2.8 2
1896-10-03 Abercorn W 6-2 1207 1261 62.2% 9.4% 28.4% +34.8 4
1896-10-03 @ Clyde L 2-6 1261 1207 28.4% 9.4% 62.2% -34.8 1
1896-10-03 Celtic D 2-2 1442 1788 24.0% 9.4% 66.6% +3.6 8
1896-10-03 @ Dundee D 2-2 1788 1442 66.6% 9.4% 24.0% -3.6 13
1896-10-03 Hibernian W 4-3 1688 1650 71.7% 9.4% 18.9% +8.2 11
1896-10-03 @ Rangers L 3-4 1650 1688 18.9% 9.4% 71.7% -8.2 13
1896-10-03 Heart of Midlothian L 2-5 1378 1594 40.4% 9.4% 50.2% -38.1 4
1896-10-03 @ St. Bernards W 5-2 1594 1378 50.2% 9.4% 40.4% +38.1 11
1896-10-03 Third Lanark W 2-0 1424 1469 63.3% 9.4% 27.3% +25.0 8
1896-10-03 @ St. Mirren L 0-2 1469 1424 27.3% 9.4% 63.3% -25.0 7
1896-10-10 St. Bernards L 2-3 1226 1340 54.5% 9.4% 36.0% -22.5 1
1896-10-10 @ Abercorn W 3-2 1340 1226 36.0% 9.4% 54.5% +22.5 6
1896-10-10 Rangers D 1-1 1784 1696 75.8% 9.4% 14.8% -7.1 14
1896-10-10 @ Celtic D 1-1 1696 1784 14.8% 9.4% 75.8% +7.1 12
1896-10-10 Dundee W 3-1 1444 1445 68.0% 9.4% 22.6% +18.2 9
1896-10-10 @ Third Lanark L 1-3 1445 1444 22.6% 9.4% 68.0% -18.1 8
1896-10-17 Third Lanark W 2-0 1777 1462 86.2% 9.3% 4.5% +4.3 16
1896-10-17 @ Celtic L 0-2 1462 1777 4.5% 9.3% 86.2% -4.4 9
1896-10-17 Abercorn W 3-0 1427 1203 83.3% 9.3% 7.4% +10.3 10
1896-10-17 @ Dundee L 0-3 1203 1427 7.4% 9.3% 83.3% -10.3 1
1896-10-17 Clyde W 2-1 1703 1241 88.9% 9.2% 2.0% +1.0 14
1896-10-17 @ Rangers L 1-2 1241 1703 2.0% 9.2% 88.9% -1.0 4
1896-10-17 Hibernian L 0-1 1363 1642 31.9% 9.4% 58.7% -15.3 6
1896-10-17 @ St. Bernards W 1-0 1642 1363 58.7% 9.4% 31.9% +15.3 15
1896-10-17 Heart of Midlothian L 0-2 1449 1632 45.0% 9.4% 45.5% -39.7 8
1896-10-17 @ St. Mirren W 2-0 1632 1449 45.5% 9.4% 45.0% +39.7 13
1896-10-24 St. Mirren W 3-2 1193 1410 40.2% 9.4% 50.4% +20.9 3
1896-10-24 @ Abercorn L 2-3 1410 1193 50.4% 9.4% 40.2% -20.9 8
1896-10-24 Dundee L 0-2 1240 1437 43.0% 9.4% 47.6% -38.0 4
1896-10-24 @ Clyde W 2-0 1437 1240 47.6% 9.4% 43.0% +38.0 12
1896-10-24 Celtic D 1-1 1671 1782 55.1% 9.4% 35.5% -2.2 14
1896-10-24 @ Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1782 1671 35.5% 9.4% 55.1% +2.2 17
1896-10-24 Third Lanark W 6-1 1704 1458 84.2% 9.3% 6.5% +12.2 16
1896-10-24 @ Rangers L 1-6 1458 1704 6.5% 9.3% 84.2% -12.2 9
1896-10-31 Heart of Midlothian L 0-1 1214 1669 14.4% 9.3% 76.2% -7.2 3
1896-10-31 @ Abercorn W 1-0 1669 1214 76.2% 9.3% 14.4% +7.2 16
1896-10-31 Dundee W 3-1 1657 1475 81.4% 9.3% 9.2% +7.6 17
1896-10-31 @ Hibernian L 1-3 1475 1657 9.2% 9.3% 81.4% -7.6 12
1896-10-31 St. Mirren L 0-2 1347 1389 63.6% 9.4% 27.0% -55.0 6
1896-10-31 @ St. Bernards W 2-0 1389 1347 27.0% 9.4% 63.6% +55.0 10
1896-11-07 Abercorn W 5-0 1784 1207 89.9% 9.0% 1.0% +2.3 19
1896-11-07 @ Celtic L 0-5 1207 1784 1.0% 9.0% 89.9% -2.3 3
1896-11-07 Clyde W 1-0 1468 1202 84.8% 9.3% 5.9% +3.0 14
1896-11-07 @ Dundee L 0-1 1202 1468 5.9% 9.3% 84.8% -3.0 4
1896-11-07 St. Bernards W 3-1 1676 1292 87.7% 9.2% 3.1% +2.6 18
1896-11-07 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-3 1292 1676 3.1% 9.2% 87.7% -2.6 6
1896-11-07 Rangers D 2-2 1444 1716 32.7% 9.4% 57.9% +2.1 11
1896-11-07 @ St. Mirren D 2-2 1716 1444 57.9% 9.4% 32.7% -2.1 17
1896-11-07 Hibernian L 1-3 1445 1665 39.8% 9.4% 50.8% -30.7 9
1896-11-07 @ Third Lanark W 3-1 1665 1445 50.8% 9.4% 39.8% +30.7 19
1896-11-14 Third Lanark L 1-2 1204 1415 41.0% 9.4% 49.5% -18.2 3
1896-11-14 @ Abercorn W 2-1 1415 1204 49.5% 9.4% 41.0% +18.2 11
1896-11-14 Clyde W 5-1 1695 1199 89.2% 9.1% 1.6% +2.5 21
1896-11-14 @ Hibernian L 1-5 1199 1695 1.6% 9.1% 89.2% -2.5 4
1896-11-14 Dundee W 2-1 1290 1471 45.2% 9.4% 45.3% +20.0 8
1896-11-14 @ St. Bernards L 1-2 1471 1290 45.3% 9.4% 45.2% -20.0 14
1896-11-21 Third Lanark W 2-1 1679 1433 84.1% 9.3% 6.6% +3.1 20
1896-11-21 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1433 1679 6.6% 9.3% 84.1% -3.2 11
1896-11-21 Abercorn W 9-0 1698 1186 89.4% 9.1% 1.5% +5.9 23
1896-11-21 @ Hibernian L 0-9 1186 1698 1.5% 9.1% 89.4% -5.9 3
1896-11-21 St. Bernards W 4-0 1446 1310 79.0% 9.4% 11.7% +21.0 13
1896-11-21 @ St. Mirren L 0-4 1310 1446 11.7% 9.4% 79.0% -21.0 8
1896-11-28 Clyde L 1-3 1180 1197 66.3% 9.4% 24.2% -49.7 3
1896-11-28 @ Abercorn W 3-1 1197 1180 24.2% 9.4% 66.3% +49.7 6
1896-11-28 Hibernian D 1-1 1786 1704 75.3% 9.4% 15.3% -7.0 20
1896-11-28 @ Celtic D 1-1 1704 1786 15.3% 9.4% 75.3% +7.0 24
1896-11-28 Rangers W 3-2 1451 1714 33.8% 9.4% 56.8% +23.3 16
1896-11-28 @ Dundee L 2-3 1714 1451 56.8% 9.4% 33.8% -23.3 17
1896-11-28 St. Bernards L 2-3 1430 1289 79.3% 9.4% 11.4% -32.7 11
1896-11-28 @ Third Lanark W 3-2 1289 1430 11.4% 9.4% 79.3% +32.7 10
1896-12-05 Rangers L 2-7 1247 1691 15.2% 9.3% 75.4% -23.2 6
1896-12-05 @ Clyde W 7-2 1691 1247 75.4% 9.3% 15.2% +23.2 19
1896-12-05 Hibernian W 1-0 1682 1711 65.1% 9.4% 25.5% +12.4 22
1896-12-05 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-1 1711 1682 25.5% 9.4% 65.1% -12.5 24
1896-12-05 Celtic L 0-3 1397 1779 20.5% 9.4% 70.2% -27.7 11
1896-12-05 @ Third Lanark W 3-0 1779 1397 70.2% 9.4% 20.5% +27.7 22
1896-12-12 Clyde W 4-1 1807 1223 90.0% 9.0% 1.0% +1.2 24
1896-12-12 @ Celtic L 1-4 1223 1807 1.0% 9.0% 90.0% -1.2 6
1896-12-12 St. Mirren W 3-2 1474 1467 68.8% 9.4% 21.8% +9.6 18
1896-12-12 @ Dundee L 2-3 1467 1474 21.8% 9.4% 68.8% -9.6 13
1896-12-12 Abercorn W 6-1 1714 1130 90.0% 9.0% 1.0% +1.9 21
1896-12-12 @ Rangers L 1-6 1130 1714 1.0% 9.0% 90.0% -1.9 3
1896-12-12 Heart of Midlothian L 1-5 1369 1695 26.4% 9.4% 64.2% -38.2 11
1896-12-12 @ Third Lanark W 5-1 1695 1369 64.2% 9.4% 26.4% +38.2 24
1896-12-19 Third Lanark W 3-2 1222 1331 55.3% 9.4% 35.3% +15.1 8
1896-12-19 @ Clyde L 2-3 1331 1222 35.3% 9.4% 55.3% -15.1 11
1896-12-19 Celtic W 2-0 1716 1808 57.5% 9.4% 33.1% +29.9 23
1896-12-19 @ Rangers L 0-2 1808 1716 33.1% 9.4% 57.5% -29.9 24
1896-12-19 Abercorn W 6-0 1321 1129 82.0% 9.3% 8.7% +23.1 12
1896-12-19 @ St. Bernards L 0-6 1129 1321 8.7% 9.3% 82.0% -23.1 3
1896-12-26 Rangers W 3-2 1344 1746 18.7% 9.4% 71.9% +29.5 14
1896-12-26 @ St. Bernards L 2-3 1746 1344 71.9% 9.4% 18.7% -29.5 23
1897-01-16 Dundee L 1-7 1105 1484 20.8% 9.4% 69.8% -44.4 3
1897-01-16 @ Abercorn W 7-1 1484 1105 69.8% 9.4% 20.8% +44.3 20
1897-01-16 St. Mirren W 3-0 1698 1457 84.0% 9.3% 6.7% +9.4 26
1897-01-16 @ Hibernian L 0-3 1457 1698 6.7% 9.3% 84.0% -9.4 13
1897-02-13 Heart of Midlothian L 1-5 1237 1733 11.8% 9.3% 78.9% -17.7 8
1897-02-13 @ Clyde W 5-1 1733 1237 78.9% 9.3% 11.8% +17.7 26
1897-02-13 Hibernian W 2-0 1448 1708 34.3% 9.4% 56.3% +48.8 15
1897-02-13 @ St. Mirren L 0-2 1708 1448 56.3% 9.4% 34.3% -48.8 26
1897-02-20 Dundee L 0-1 1778 1528 84.3% 9.3% 6.4% -39.0 24
1897-02-20 @ Celtic W 1-0 1528 1778 6.4% 9.3% 84.3% +39.0 22
1897-02-20 Clyde W 5-0 1750 1220 89.6% 9.1% 1.3% +3.1 28
1897-02-20 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-5 1220 1750 1.3% 9.1% 89.6% -3.0 8
1897-02-20 St. Bernards W 3-2 1716 1374 86.9% 9.2% 3.9% +1.8 25
1897-02-20 @ Rangers L 2-3 1374 1716 3.9% 9.2% 86.9% -1.8 14
1897-02-20 St. Mirren L 1-3 1316 1497 45.3% 9.4% 45.3% -34.5 11
1897-02-20 @ Third Lanark W 3-1 1497 1316 45.3% 9.4% 45.3% +34.5 17
1897-03-13 Celtic W 2-0 1531 1739 41.4% 9.4% 49.2% +43.0 19
1897-03-13 @ St. Mirren L 0-2 1739 1531 49.2% 9.4% 41.4% -43.0 24

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1897-02-20 6.41% Dundee 1528 1 @ Celtic 1778 0
2 1896-11-28 11.36% St. Bernards 1289 3 @ Third Lanark 1430 2
3 1896-12-26 18.70% @ St. Bernards 1344 3 Rangers 1746 2
4 1896-08-15 23.35% St. Bernards 1419 2 @ Clyde 1410 1
5 1896-08-29 24.24% Third Lanark 1456 3 @ St. Bernards 1439 2
6 1896-11-28 24.24% Clyde 1197 3 @ Abercorn 1180 1
7 1896-10-31 26.95% St. Mirren 1389 2 @ St. Bernards 1347 0
8 1896-09-12 29.62% @ Clyde 1164 3 St. Mirren 1461 1
9 1896-11-28 33.84% @ Dundee 1451 3 Rangers 1714 2
10 1897-02-13 34.33% @ St. Mirren 1448 2 Hibernian 1708 0
11 1896-10-10 36.04% St. Bernards 1340 3 @ Abercorn 1226 2
12 1896-08-22 39.11% @ Dundee 1343 3 Hibernian 1567 0
13 1896-08-15 39.24% Heart of Midlothian 1585 5 @ Dundee 1447 0
14 1896-10-24 40.17% @ Abercorn 1193 3 St. Mirren 1410 2
15 1897-03-13 41.42% @ St. Mirren 1531 2 Celtic 1739 0
16 1896-11-14 45.23% @ St. Bernards 1290 2 Dundee 1471 1
17 1897-02-20 45.28% St. Mirren 1497 3 @ Third Lanark 1316 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1896-08-29 115.81 Hibernian 7 1502 50.07% @ Clyde 0 1288 40.50% 9.42%
2 1896-08-15 104.65 Heart of Midlothian 5 1585 39.24% @ Dundee 0 1447 51.33% 9.43%
3 1896-08-29 101.03 Celtic 6 1650 49.64% @ Abercorn 0 1439 40.94% 9.42%
4 1896-09-12 73.93 @ Rangers 5 1573 55.44% Heart of Midlothian 0 1681 35.13% 9.43%
5 1896-08-22 65.15 @ Dundee 3 1343 39.11% Hibernian 0 1567 51.47% 9.42%
6 1896-08-17 61.17 Celtic 7 1580 47.93% @ Clyde 2 1381 42.65% 9.42%
7 1896-10-31 55.04 St. Mirren 2 1389 26.95% @ St. Bernards 0 1347 63.63% 9.42%
8 1896-09-26 53.59 Rangers 9 1634 63.70% @ Abercorn 2 1314 26.90% 9.40%
9 1896-11-28 49.70 Clyde 3 1197 24.24% @ Abercorn 1 1180 66.34% 9.42%
10 1897-02-13 48.81 @ St. Mirren 2 1448 34.33% Hibernian 0 1708 56.26% 9.41%
11 1896-09-12 45.69 @ Clyde 3 1164 29.62% St. Mirren 1 1461 60.98% 9.40%
12 1897-01-16 44.35 Dundee 7 1484 69.80% @ Abercorn 1 1105 20.83% 9.37%
13 1897-03-13 42.98 @ St. Mirren 2 1531 41.42% Celtic 0 1739 49.16% 9.42%
14 1896-10-17 39.67 Heart of Midlothian 2 1632 45.54% @ St. Mirren 0 1449 45.03% 9.43%
15 1897-02-20 39.02 Dundee 1 1528 6.41% @ Celtic 0 1778 84.28% 9.32%
16 1896-12-12 38.24 Heart of Midlothian 5 1695 64.25% @ Third Lanark 1 1369 26.36% 9.39%
17 1896-10-03 38.07 Heart of Midlothian 5 1594 50.23% @ St. Bernards 2 1378 40.35% 9.42%
18 1896-10-24 38.01 Dundee 2 1437 47.60% @ Clyde 0 1240 42.97% 9.42%
19 1896-10-03 34.80 @ Clyde 6 1207 62.19% Abercorn 2 1261 28.39% 9.43%
20 1897-02-20 34.53 St. Mirren 3 1497 45.28% @ Third Lanark 1 1316 45.29% 9.43%
21 1896-09-12 33.09 @ Dundee 2 1378 53.65% Third Lanark 0 1499 36.92% 9.43%
22 1896-11-28 32.70 St. Bernards 3 1289 11.36% @ Third Lanark 2 1430 79.27% 9.37%
23 1896-08-22 32.44 @ St. Mirren 5 1410 75.91% Clyde 0 1320 14.70% 9.39%
24 1896-11-07 30.71 Hibernian 3 1665 50.76% @ Third Lanark 1 1445 39.82% 9.42%
25 1896-12-19 29.91 @ Rangers 2 1716 57.49% Celtic 0 1808 33.09% 9.43%