1894-95 Division One Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Heart of Midlothian

31 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Heart of Midlothian

10.37 points above expected

31 points · 20.63 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Leith Athletic

9.05 points below expected

7 points · 16.05 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Heart of Midlothian	18	15	1	2	31	50	18	+32	20.6	+10.37
2	Celtic	18	11	4	3	26	50	29	+21	20.9	+5.13
3	Rangers	18	10	2	6	22	41	26	+15	20.7	+1.26
4	Third Lanark	18	10	1	7	21	51	39	+12	17.6	+3.43
5	St. Mirren	18	9	1	8	19	34	34	0	17.8	+1.25
6	St. Bernards	18	8	1	9	17	37	40	-3	18.9	-1.90
7	Clyde	18	8	0	10	16	38	47	-9	14.3	+1.69
8	Dundee	18	6	2	10	14	28	33	-5	17.4	-3.45
9	Dumbarton	18	3	1	14	7	27	58	-31	15.7	-8.72
10	Leith Athletic	18	3	1	14	7	32	64	-32	16.1	-9.05

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Heart of Midlothian	1512	31	20.63	+10.37	99.9%	6	14	18	21	23	27	34
Celtic	1488	26	20.87	+5.13	93.5%	5	15	18	21	24	27	33
Rangers	1473	22	20.74	+1.26	68.1%	6	14	18	21	23	27	34
Third Lanark	1422	21	17.57	+3.43	85.2%	1	11	15	18	20	24	31
St. Bernards	1413	17	18.90	-1.90	35.2%	6	13	16	19	21	25	32
St. Mirren	1399	19	17.75	+1.25	67.1%	4	12	15	18	20	24	32
Dundee	1386	14	17.45	-3.45	22.3%	3	11	15	17	20	24	30
Leith Athletic	1334	7	16.05	-9.05	1.0%	0	10	14	16	19	22	30
Clyde	1331	16	14.31	+1.69	71.8%	0	8	12	14	17	21	28
Dumbarton	1331	7	15.72	-8.72	1.3%	2	9	13	16	18	22	30

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	CEL	CLY	DUM	DUN	HOM	LA	RAN	SB	SM	TL
Celtic	—	2-0-0 3.87	2-0-0 3.80	1-1-0 3.38	0-0-2 2.91	2-0-0 3.92	1-1-0 2.91	2-0-0 3.09	1-1-0 3.33	0-1-1 3.37
Clyde	0-0-2 1.96	—	2-0-0 2.85	1-0-1 2.39	2-0-0 1.78	1-0-1 2.59	0-0-2 1.98	1-0-1 2.16	0-0-2 2.48	1-0-1 2.48
Dumbarton	0-0-2 2.03	0-0-2 2.98	—	0-0-2 2.78	0-0-2 2.31	1-1-0 2.92	1-0-1 2.23	0-0-2 2.49	1-0-1 2.51	0-0-2 2.55
Dundee	0-1-1 2.45	1-0-1 3.44	2-0-0 3.05	—	0-0-2 2.27	1-0-1 3.23	1-0-1 2.36	0-1-1 2.79	0-0-2 2.95	1-0-1 2.89
Heart of Midlothian	2-0-0 2.92	0-0-2 4.05	2-0-0 3.52	2-0-0 3.56	—	2-0-0 3.58	1-1-0 2.89	2-0-0 3.27	2-0-0 3.20	2-0-0 3.11
Leith Athletic	0-0-2 1.91	1-0-1 3.24	0-1-1 2.91	1-0-1 2.60	0-0-2 2.25	—	0-0-2 2.29	0-0-2 2.55	0-0-2 2.82	1-0-1 2.77
Rangers	0-1-1 2.92	2-0-0 3.85	1-0-1 3.60	1-0-1 3.47	0-1-1 2.94	2-0-0 3.54	—	2-0-0 3.14	1-0-1 3.42	1-0-1 3.56
St. Bernards	0-0-2 2.74	1-0-1 3.67	2-0-0 3.34	1-1-0 3.04	0-0-2 2.56	2-0-0 3.28	0-0-2 2.69	—	2-0-0 3.07	0-0-2 3.17
St. Mirren	0-1-1 2.50	2-0-0 3.35	1-0-1 3.32	2-0-0 2.88	0-0-2 2.63	2-0-0 3.01	1-0-1 2.41	0-0-2 2.76	—	1-0-1 2.92
Third Lanark	1-1-0 2.46	1-0-1 3.35	2-0-0 3.28	1-0-1 2.94	0-0-2 2.72	1-0-1 3.06	1-0-1 2.27	2-0-0 2.66	1-0-1 2.91	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	1.11%	3.89%	6.67%	3.33%	2.78%	1.11%	18.89%
1	3.89%	3.33%	4.44%	2.22%	4.44%	2.22%	20.56%
2	6.67%	4.44%	2.22%	3.33%	4.44%	1.11%	22.22%
3	3.33%	2.22%	3.33%	—	3.33%	2.22%	14.44%
4	2.78%	4.44%	4.44%	3.33%	1.11%	—	16.11%
5+	1.11%	2.22%	1.11%	2.22%	—	1.11%	7.78%
Total	18.89%	20.56%	22.22%	14.44%	16.11%	7.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.16
Mean allowed	2.16
StdDev scored	1.65
StdDev allowed	1.65
Mean total goals/game	4.31
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.044
Sample size (games)	90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
1	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
5+	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	22.22%
Total	33.33%	16.67%	27.78%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Celtic — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.78
Mean allowed	1.61
StdDev scored	1.93
StdDev allowed	1.58
Mean total goals/game	4.39
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.163
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
1	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%	5.56%	27.78%
2	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	5.56%	38.89%	5.56%	33.33%	5.56%	100%

Clyde — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.11
Mean allowed	2.61
StdDev scored	1.41
StdDev allowed	1.46
Mean total goals/game	4.72
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.321
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	11.11%	27.78%
1	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	16.67%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	22.22%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	27.78%	27.78%	16.67%	100%

Dumbarton — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.50
Mean allowed	3.22
StdDev scored	1.29
StdDev allowed	1.63
Mean total goals/game	4.72
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.056
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	33.33%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	38.89%	38.89%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Dundee — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.56
Mean allowed	1.83
StdDev scored	1.50
StdDev allowed	1.20
Mean total goals/game	3.39
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.337
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
2	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
4	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
5+	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
Total	50.00%	27.78%	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	100%

Heart of Midlothian — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.78
Mean allowed	1.00
StdDev scored	1.44
StdDev allowed	1.33
Mean total goals/game	3.78
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.308
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	38.89%
2	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	22.22%
3	—	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
Total	—	11.11%	22.22%	16.67%	22.22%	27.78%	100%

Leith Athletic — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.78
Mean allowed	3.56
StdDev scored	1.26
StdDev allowed	1.76
Mean total goals/game	5.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.218
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
4	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
5+	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	22.22%	50.00%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Rangers — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.28
Mean allowed	1.44
StdDev scored	1.78
StdDev allowed	1.42
Mean total goals/game	3.72
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.251
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
2	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	33.33%
3	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
Total	27.78%	5.56%	16.67%	22.22%	22.22%	5.56%	100%

St. Bernards — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.06
Mean allowed	2.22
StdDev scored	1.76
StdDev allowed	1.70
Mean total goals/game	4.28
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.161
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
1	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
2	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
4	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	22.22%	33.33%	11.11%	16.67%	—	100%

St. Mirren — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.89
Mean allowed	1.89
StdDev scored	1.64
StdDev allowed	1.32
Mean total goals/game	3.78
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.033
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
2	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%
4	11.11%	—	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	33.33%
5+	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
Total	16.67%	16.67%	27.78%	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Third Lanark — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.83
Mean allowed	2.17
StdDev scored	2.01
StdDev allowed	1.58
Mean total goals/game	5.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.046
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Heart of Midlothian	31	20.6	+10.37
2	Celtic	26	20.9	+5.13
3	Third Lanark	21	17.6	+3.43
4	Clyde	16	14.3	+1.69
5	Rangers	22	20.7	+1.26

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Leith Athletic	7	16.1	-9.05
2	Dumbarton	7	15.7	-8.72
3	Dundee	14	17.4	-3.45
4	St. Bernards	17	18.9	-1.90
5	St. Mirren	19	17.8	+1.25

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Heart of Midlothian	11	Aug 18 – Nov 17	1 in 3,659
2	Third Lanark	3	Oct 20 – Nov 10	1 in 23
3	Rangers	4	Aug 18 – Sep 8	1 in 17
4	Celtic	4	Sep 8 – Oct 20	1 in 13
5	Clyde	2	Sep 22 – Sep 29	1 in 10

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dumbarton	9	Sep 8 – Nov 10	1 in 547
2	Leith Athletic	6	Aug 18 – Sep 17	1 in 57
3	Third Lanark	4	Sep 8 – Oct 13	1 in 20
4	St. Mirren	3	Mar 23 – Apr 4	1 in 10
5	Rangers	2	Jan 26 – Feb 16	1 in 10

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Heart of Midlothian	11	Aug 18 – Nov 17	1 in 555
2	Third Lanark	6	Dec 22 – Apr 6	1 in 55
3	St. Mirren	5	Nov 10 – Mar 16	1 in 26
4	Celtic	7	Feb 23 – May 4	1 in 17
5	Rangers	4	Aug 18 – Sep 8	1 in 9

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dumbarton	9	Sep 8 – Nov 10	1 in 124
2	Leith Athletic	6	Aug 18 – Sep 17	1 in 22
3	Celtic	3	Dec 22 – Feb 23	1 in 14
4	Third Lanark	4	Sep 8 – Oct 13	1 in 10
5	Rangers	3	Jan 19 – Feb 16	1 in 8

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Heart of Midlothian	24.29%	18.69%	13.87%	11.82%	9.62%	7.52%	5.82%	4.04%	2.81%	1.52%
Celtic	24.58%	19.30%	14.22%	12.01%	9.38%	7.15%	5.50%	4.12%	2.43%	1.31%
Rangers	20.78%	19.02%	16.40%	11.94%	9.68%	7.77%	6.01%	4.03%	2.97%	1.40%
Third Lanark	5.36%	8.28%	9.97%	12.01%	12.23%	12.47%	12.45%	11.01%	9.47%	6.75%
St. Mirren	6.03%	8.07%	9.84%	11.50%	11.37%	12.67%	12.12%	11.51%	9.45%	7.44%
St. Bernards	9.25%	11.01%	13.64%	12.65%	12.68%	10.58%	9.82%	9.03%	7.09%	4.25%
Clyde	0.81%	1.99%	2.92%	4.27%	6.02%	8.58%	10.12%	14.81%	20.40%	30.08%
Dundee	4.77%	6.62%	9.21%	10.33%	11.79%	12.19%	12.81%	12.58%	11.11%	8.59%
Dumbarton	1.96%	3.35%	4.77%	6.16%	8.25%	10.49%	12.51%	14.24%	17.77%	20.50%
Leith Athletic	2.17%	3.67%	5.16%	7.31%	8.98%	10.58%	12.84%	14.63%	16.50%	18.16%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Celtic	98.7%	1.3%
Rangers	98.6%	1.4%
Heart of Midlothian	98.5%	1.5%
St. Bernards	95.8%	4.2%
Third Lanark	93.2%	6.8%
St. Mirren	92.6%	7.4%
Dundee	91.4%	8.6%
Leith Athletic	81.8%	18.2%
Dumbarton	79.5%	20.5%
Clyde	69.9%	30.1%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1894-08-11	Celtic	D 1-1	1402	1444	54.9%	8.5%	36.6%	-0.4	1
1894-08-11	@ Dundee	D 1-1	1444	1402	36.6%	8.5%	54.9%	+0.4	1
1894-08-18	St. Bernards	W 5-2	1444	1441	60.7%	8.5%	30.8%	+5.6	4
1894-08-18	@ Celtic	L 2-5	1441	1444	30.8%	8.5%	60.7%	-5.6	0
1894-08-18	Clyde	W 4-1	1402	1329	68.6%	8.4%	23.0%	+4.9	4
1894-08-18	@ Dundee	L 1-4	1329	1402	23.0%	8.4%	68.6%	-4.9	0
1894-08-18	Third Lanark	W 6-3	1421	1399	63.0%	8.5%	28.5%	+4.8	3
1894-08-18	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 3-6	1399	1421	28.5%	8.5%	63.0%	-4.8	0
1894-08-18	St. Mirren	L 1-2	1404	1403	60.4%	8.5%	31.1%	-4.9	0
1894-08-18	@ Leith Athletic	W 2-1	1403	1404	31.1%	8.5%	60.4%	+4.9	3
1894-08-18	Dumbarton	W 3-0	1445	1402	65.3%	8.5%	26.2%	+6.5	3
1894-08-18	@ Rangers	L 0-3	1402	1445	26.2%	8.5%	65.3%	-6.5	0
1894-08-25	Leith Athletic	W 5-2	1324	1399	50.4%	8.5%	41.1%	+7.3	3
1894-08-25	@ Clyde	L 2-5	1399	1324	41.1%	8.5%	50.4%	-7.3	0
1894-08-25	Rangers	L 1-4	1435	1451	58.3%	8.5%	33.2%	-11.7	0
1894-08-25	@ St. Bernards	W 4-1	1451	1435	33.2%	8.5%	58.3%	+11.7	6
1894-08-25	Celtic	W 2-1	1394	1450	52.9%	8.5%	38.5%	+3.2	3
1894-08-25	@ Third Lanark	L 1-2	1450	1394	38.5%	8.5%	52.9%	-3.2	4
1894-09-01	Leith Athletic	W 3-2	1396	1391	60.8%	8.5%	30.7%	+2.5	3
1894-09-01	@ Dumbarton	L 2-3	1391	1396	30.7%	8.5%	60.8%	-2.5	0
1894-09-01	St. Mirren	W 1-0	1426	1408	62.5%	8.5%	29.0%	+2.6	6
1894-09-01	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-1	1408	1426	29.0%	8.5%	62.5%	-2.6	3
1894-09-01	Dundee	W 1-0	1463	1407	66.8%	8.5%	24.7%	+2.3	9
1894-09-01	@ Rangers	L 0-1	1407	1463	24.7%	8.5%	66.8%	-2.3	4
1894-09-08	St. Bernards	L 1-4	1332	1424	47.9%	8.5%	43.6%	-9.7	3
1894-09-08	@ Clyde	W 4-1	1424	1332	43.6%	8.5%	47.9%	+9.7	3
1894-09-08	Dumbarton	W 3-0	1405	1398	61.1%	8.5%	30.4%	+7.5	7
1894-09-08	@ Dundee	L 0-3	1398	1405	30.4%	8.5%	61.1%	-7.5	3
1894-09-08	Rangers	L 3-4	1389	1465	50.1%	8.5%	41.4%	-3.8	0
1894-09-08	@ Leith Athletic	W 4-3	1465	1389	41.4%	8.5%	50.1%	+3.8	12
1894-09-08	Celtic	L 0-3	1405	1447	54.9%	8.5%	36.6%	-13.0	3
1894-09-08	@ St. Mirren	W 3-0	1447	1405	36.6%	8.5%	54.9%	+13.0	7
1894-09-08	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-3	1397	1428	56.3%	8.5%	35.2%	-13.4	3
1894-09-08	@ Third Lanark	W 3-0	1428	1397	35.2%	8.5%	56.3%	+13.4	9
1894-09-15	St. Bernards	L 3-4	1391	1433	54.8%	8.5%	36.7%	-4.2	3
1894-09-15	@ Dumbarton	W 4-3	1433	1391	36.7%	8.5%	54.8%	+4.2	6
1894-09-15	Leith Athletic	W 3-1	1442	1385	66.9%	8.5%	24.6%	+3.7	12
1894-09-15	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-3	1385	1442	24.6%	8.5%	66.9%	-3.7	0
1894-09-15	Dundee	W 5-1	1392	1412	57.8%	8.5%	33.7%	+9.0	6
1894-09-15	@ St. Mirren	L 1-5	1412	1392	33.7%	8.5%	57.8%	-9.0	7
1894-09-17	Leith Athletic	W 6-3	1437	1381	66.8%	8.5%	24.7%	+4.2	9
1894-09-17	@ St. Bernards	L 3-6	1381	1437	24.7%	8.5%	66.8%	-4.2	0
1894-09-22	Rangers	W 5-3	1460	1469	59.1%	8.5%	32.4%	+4.0	10
1894-09-22	@ Celtic	L 3-5	1469	1460	32.4%	8.5%	59.1%	-4.0	12
1894-09-22	Third Lanark	W 3-2	1377	1384	59.4%	8.5%	32.1%	+2.6	3
1894-09-22	@ Leith Athletic	L 2-3	1384	1377	32.1%	8.5%	59.4%	-2.6	3
1894-09-22	Clyde	L 0-3	1442	1322	73.1%	8.3%	18.6%	-17.3	9
1894-09-22	@ St. Bernards	W 3-0	1322	1442	18.6%	8.3%	73.1%	+17.3	6
1894-09-22	Dumbarton	W 4-3	1401	1387	62.1%	8.5%	29.4%	+2.3	9
1894-09-22	@ St. Mirren	L 3-4	1387	1401	29.4%	8.5%	62.1%	-2.3	3
1894-09-29	Third Lanark	W 4-3	1339	1381	54.8%	8.5%	36.7%	+2.9	9
1894-09-29	@ Clyde	L 3-4	1381	1339	36.7%	8.5%	54.8%	-2.9	3
1894-09-29	Heart of Midlothian	L 1-4	1384	1445	52.2%	8.5%	39.3%	-10.5	3
1894-09-29	@ Dumbarton	W 4-1	1445	1384	39.3%	8.5%	52.2%	+10.5	15
1894-09-29	St. Bernards	D 2-2	1403	1424	57.6%	8.5%	33.9%	-0.4	8
1894-09-29	@ Dundee	D 2-2	1424	1403	33.9%	8.5%	57.6%	+0.4	10
1894-09-29	St. Mirren	W 4-3	1465	1404	67.4%	8.4%	24.2%	+1.9	15
1894-09-29	@ Rangers	L 3-4	1404	1465	24.2%	8.4%	67.4%	-1.9	9
1894-10-06	St. Bernards	W 4-3	1456	1425	64.0%	8.5%	27.5%	+2.2	18
1894-10-06	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 3-4	1425	1456	27.5%	8.5%	64.0%	-2.2	10
1894-10-13	Celtic	L 2-4	1342	1464	43.6%	8.5%	47.9%	-5.6	9
1894-10-13	@ Clyde	W 4-2	1464	1342	47.9%	8.5%	43.6%	+5.6	13
1894-10-13	Dundee	L 2-4	1374	1403	56.6%	8.5%	34.9%	-7.2	3
1894-10-13	@ Dumbarton	W 4-2	1403	1374	34.9%	8.5%	56.6%	+7.2	11
1894-10-13	St. Bernards	L 0-2	1380	1422	54.7%	8.5%	36.7%	-9.0	3
1894-10-13	@ Leith Athletic	W 2-0	1422	1380	36.7%	8.5%	54.7%	+9.0	13
1894-10-13	Heart of Midlothian	L 1-2	1402	1458	52.8%	8.5%	38.6%	-4.3	9
1894-10-13	@ St. Mirren	W 2-1	1458	1402	38.6%	8.5%	52.8%	+4.3	21
1894-10-13	Rangers	L 0-2	1379	1467	48.4%	8.5%	43.1%	-8.0	3
1894-10-13	@ Third Lanark	W 2-0	1467	1379	43.1%	8.5%	48.4%	+8.0	18
1894-10-20	Dumbarton	W 6-0	1469	1367	71.6%	8.4%	20.1%	+9.7	16
1894-10-20	@ Celtic	L 0-6	1367	1469	20.1%	8.4%	71.6%	-9.7	3
1894-10-20	Dundee	W 3-2	1371	1410	55.2%	8.5%	36.2%	+2.9	6
1894-10-20	@ Leith Athletic	L 2-3	1410	1371	36.2%	8.5%	55.2%	-2.9	11
1894-10-20	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-1	1475	1462	61.8%	8.5%	29.7%	-5.3	18
1894-10-20	@ Rangers	W 1-0	1462	1475	29.7%	8.5%	61.8%	+5.3	24
1894-10-20	Third Lanark	L 2-4	1431	1371	67.3%	8.4%	24.2%	-8.5	13
1894-10-20	@ St. Bernards	W 4-2	1371	1431	24.2%	8.4%	67.3%	+8.5	6
1894-10-20	Clyde	W 4-2	1397	1337	67.3%	8.4%	24.2%	+3.2	12
1894-10-20	@ St. Mirren	L 2-4	1337	1397	24.2%	8.4%	67.3%	-3.2	9
1894-10-27	Dumbarton	W 3-1	1468	1357	72.3%	8.4%	19.3%	+2.9	27
1894-10-27	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-3	1357	1468	19.3%	8.4%	72.3%	-2.9	3
1894-11-03	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-2	1479	1471	61.3%	8.5%	30.2%	-10.0	16
1894-11-03	@ Celtic	W 2-0	1471	1479	30.2%	8.5%	61.3%	+10.0	30
1894-11-03	Clyde	L 2-3	1354	1333	62.8%	8.5%	28.7%	-4.9	3
1894-11-03	@ Dumbarton	W 3-2	1333	1354	28.7%	8.5%	62.8%	+4.9	12
1894-11-03	Third Lanark	L 1-2	1407	1379	63.6%	8.5%	27.9%	-5.2	11
1894-11-03	@ Dundee	W 2-1	1379	1407	27.9%	8.5%	63.6%	+5.2	9
1894-11-03	Leith Athletic	W 5-1	1469	1374	70.9%	8.4%	20.7%	+5.7	21
1894-11-03	@ Rangers	L 1-5	1374	1469	20.7%	8.4%	70.9%	-5.7	6
1894-11-03	St. Mirren	W 2-0	1423	1401	63.0%	8.5%	28.5%	+4.9	16
1894-11-03	@ St. Bernards	L 0-2	1401	1423	28.5%	8.5%	63.0%	-4.9	12
1894-11-10	Celtic	L 0-2	1428	1469	54.9%	8.5%	36.5%	-9.0	16
1894-11-10	@ St. Bernards	W 2-0	1469	1428	36.5%	8.5%	54.9%	+9.0	19
1894-11-10	Leith Athletic	W 3-2	1396	1368	63.6%	8.5%	27.9%	+2.3	15
1894-11-10	@ St. Mirren	L 2-3	1368	1396	27.9%	8.5%	63.6%	-2.3	6
1894-11-10	Dumbarton	W 6-3	1384	1349	64.5%	8.5%	27.0%	+4.6	12
1894-11-10	@ Third Lanark	L 3-6	1349	1384	27.0%	8.5%	64.5%	-4.6	3
1894-11-17	Heart of Midlothian	L 1-4	1366	1481	44.6%	8.5%	46.9%	-9.1	6
1894-11-17	@ Leith Athletic	W 4-1	1481	1366	46.9%	8.5%	44.6%	+9.1	33
1894-12-01	Rangers	W 1-0	1345	1475	42.4%	8.5%	49.1%	+4.3	6
1894-12-01	@ Dumbarton	L 0-1	1475	1345	49.1%	8.5%	42.4%	-4.3	21
1894-12-01	Leith Athletic	W 4-1	1402	1357	65.6%	8.5%	25.9%	+5.5	14
1894-12-01	@ Dundee	L 1-4	1357	1402	25.9%	8.5%	65.6%	-5.5	6
1894-12-01	Clyde	L 2-4	1490	1338	75.8%	8.3%	15.9%	-9.6	33
1894-12-01	@ Heart of Midlothian	W 4-2	1338	1490	15.9%	8.3%	75.8%	+9.6	15
1894-12-01	Third Lanark	W 2-0	1398	1389	61.4%	8.5%	30.1%	+5.1	18
1894-12-01	@ St. Mirren	L 0-2	1389	1398	30.1%	8.5%	61.4%	-5.1	12
1894-12-08	Rangers	L 1-5	1348	1471	43.4%	8.5%	48.1%	-11.4	15
1894-12-08	@ Clyde	W 5-1	1471	1348	48.1%	8.5%	43.4%	+11.4	24
1894-12-08	Dundee	W 2-0	1419	1407	61.7%	8.5%	29.8%	+5.1	19
1894-12-08	@ St. Bernards	L 0-2	1407	1419	29.8%	8.5%	61.7%	-5.1	14
1894-12-22	St. Mirren	D 2-2	1478	1403	68.8%	8.4%	22.7%	-0.7	20
1894-12-22	@ Celtic	D 2-2	1403	1478	22.7%	8.4%	68.8%	+0.8	19
1894-12-22	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-2	1402	1480	49.9%	8.5%	41.6%	-8.2	14
1894-12-22	@ Dundee	W 2-0	1480	1402	41.6%	8.5%	49.9%	+8.2	36
1894-12-22	Dumbarton	W 5-0	1424	1349	68.8%	8.4%	22.7%	+9.2	22
1894-12-22	@ St. Bernards	L 0-5	1349	1424	22.7%	8.4%	68.8%	-9.2	6
1894-12-22	Leith Athletic	W 7-1	1384	1351	64.2%	8.5%	27.3%	+10.8	15
1894-12-22	@ Third Lanark	L 1-7	1351	1384	27.3%	8.5%	64.2%	-10.8	6
1895-01-19	Rangers	D 0-0	1488	1482	61.0%	8.5%	30.5%	-0.7	37
1895-01-19	@ Heart of Midlothian	D 0-0	1482	1488	30.5%	8.5%	61.0%	+0.7	25
1895-01-26	Rangers	W 2-1	1394	1483	48.3%	8.5%	43.2%	+3.6	17
1895-01-26	@ Dundee	L 1-2	1483	1394	43.2%	8.5%	48.3%	-3.6	25
1895-02-16	Celtic	W 4-0	1488	1477	61.6%	8.5%	29.9%	+9.7	40
1895-02-16	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-4	1477	1488	29.9%	8.5%	61.6%	-9.7	20
1895-02-16	Third Lanark	L 0-1	1479	1394	69.8%	8.4%	21.8%	-6.0	25
1895-02-16	@ Rangers	W 1-0	1394	1479	21.8%	8.4%	69.8%	+6.0	18
1895-02-22	Clyde	W 4-1	1473	1336	74.6%	8.3%	17.1%	+3.7	28
1895-02-22	@ Rangers	L 1-4	1336	1473	17.1%	8.3%	74.6%	-3.7	15
1895-02-23	Third Lanark	D 4-4	1468	1400	68.0%	8.4%	23.5%	-0.5	21
1895-02-23	@ Celtic	D 4-4	1400	1468	23.5%	8.4%	68.0%	+0.5	19
1895-03-02	Third Lanark	L 2-4	1340	1401	52.2%	8.5%	39.3%	-6.6	6
1895-03-02	@ Dumbarton	W 4-2	1401	1340	39.3%	8.5%	52.2%	+6.6	22
1895-03-02	Clyde	W 2-1	1341	1333	61.3%	8.5%	30.2%	+2.6	9
1895-03-02	@ Leith Athletic	L 1-2	1333	1341	30.2%	8.5%	61.3%	-2.6	15
1895-03-09	Celtic	L 0-2	1333	1467	41.9%	8.5%	49.6%	-7.0	6
1895-03-09	@ Dumbarton	W 2-0	1467	1333	49.6%	8.5%	41.9%	+7.0	24
1895-03-09	Rangers	W 4-2	1404	1477	50.5%	8.5%	40.9%	+5.3	22
1895-03-09	@ St. Mirren	L 2-4	1477	1404	40.9%	8.5%	50.5%	-5.3	28
1895-03-16	Leith Athletic	W 4-0	1474	1343	74.1%	8.3%	17.6%	+5.8	27
1895-03-16	@ Celtic	L 0-4	1343	1474	17.6%	8.3%	74.1%	-5.8	9
1895-03-16	Dumbarton	W 3-1	1330	1326	60.8%	8.5%	30.7%	+4.5	18
1895-03-16	@ Clyde	L 1-3	1326	1330	30.7%	8.5%	60.8%	-4.5	6
1895-03-16	St. Mirren	L 0-1	1398	1409	58.8%	8.5%	32.7%	-5.1	17
1895-03-16	@ Dundee	W 1-0	1409	1398	32.7%	8.5%	58.8%	+5.1	25
1895-03-23	Heart of Midlothian	W 3-2	1335	1497	37.9%	8.5%	53.6%	+4.2	21
1895-03-23	@ Clyde	L 2-3	1497	1335	53.6%	8.5%	37.9%	-4.2	40
1895-03-23	Celtic	D 1-1	1472	1480	59.2%	8.5%	32.2%	-0.6	29
1895-03-23	@ Rangers	D 1-1	1480	1472	32.2%	8.5%	59.2%	+0.6	28
1895-03-23	St. Bernards	L 0-1	1414	1433	57.9%	8.5%	33.6%	-5.0	25
1895-03-23	@ St. Mirren	W 1-0	1433	1414	33.6%	8.5%	57.9%	+5.0	25
1895-03-30	St. Mirren	W 4-1	1322	1409	48.5%	8.5%	43.0%	+8.8	9
1895-03-30	@ Dumbarton	L 1-4	1409	1322	43.0%	8.5%	48.5%	-8.8	25
1895-03-30	Dundee	W 4-0	1493	1392	71.4%	8.4%	20.2%	+6.7	43
1895-03-30	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-4	1392	1493	20.2%	8.4%	71.4%	-6.7	17
1895-03-30	Celtic	L 5-6	1337	1481	40.6%	8.5%	50.9%	-3.1	9
1895-03-30	@ Leith Athletic	W 6-5	1481	1337	50.9%	8.5%	40.6%	+3.1	31
1895-04-04	St. Mirren	W 4-0	1408	1400	61.2%	8.5%	30.3%	+9.8	25
1895-04-04	@ Third Lanark	L 0-4	1400	1408	30.3%	8.5%	61.2%	-9.8	25
1895-04-06	Dumbarton	D 1-1	1334	1330	60.8%	8.5%	30.7%	-0.6	10
1895-04-06	@ Leith Athletic	D 1-1	1330	1334	30.7%	8.5%	60.8%	+0.6	10
1895-04-06	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-3	1438	1500	52.1%	8.5%	39.3%	-12.4	25
1895-04-06	@ St. Bernards	W 3-0	1500	1438	39.3%	8.5%	52.1%	+12.4	46
1895-04-06	Clyde	W 4-2	1417	1339	69.2%	8.4%	22.4%	+3.0	28
1895-04-06	@ Third Lanark	L 2-4	1339	1417	22.4%	8.4%	69.2%	-3.0	21
1895-04-27	Clyde	W 2-0	1484	1336	75.5%	8.3%	16.2%	+2.8	34
1895-04-27	@ Celtic	L 0-2	1336	1484	16.2%	8.3%	75.5%	-2.8	21
1895-04-27	St. Bernards	W 2-1	1471	1426	65.7%	8.5%	25.9%	+2.2	32
1895-04-27	@ Rangers	L 1-2	1426	1471	25.9%	8.5%	65.7%	-2.2	25
1895-04-27	Dundee	L 1-3	1420	1386	64.5%	8.5%	27.1%	-9.1	28
1895-04-27	@ Third Lanark	W 3-1	1386	1420	27.1%	8.5%	64.5%	+9.1	20
1895-05-04	Dundee	W 2-1	1486	1395	70.5%	8.4%	21.1%	+1.8	37
1895-05-04	@ Celtic	L 1-2	1395	1486	21.1%	8.4%	70.5%	-1.8	20
1895-05-11	St. Mirren	L 0-2	1333	1391	52.7%	8.5%	38.8%	-8.6	21
1895-05-11	@ Clyde	W 2-0	1391	1333	38.8%	8.5%	52.7%	+8.6	28
1895-05-11	St. Bernards	W 4-0	1411	1424	58.8%	8.5%	32.7%	+10.6	31
1895-05-11	@ Third Lanark	L 0-4	1424	1411	32.7%	8.5%	58.8%	-10.5	25
1895-05-18	Dundee	W 2-0	1324	1393	51.1%	8.5%	40.3%	+6.8	24
1895-05-18	@ Clyde	L 0-2	1393	1324	40.3%	8.5%	51.1%	-6.8	20

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1894-12-01	15.94%	Clyde	1338	4	@ Heart of Midlothian	1490	2
2	1894-09-22	18.55%	Clyde	1322	3	@ St. Bernards	1442	0
3	1895-02-16	21.75%	Third Lanark	1394	1	@ Rangers	1479	0
4	1894-10-20	24.21%	Third Lanark	1371	4	@ St. Bernards	1431	2
5	1895-04-27	27.08%	Dundee	1386	3	@ Third Lanark	1420	1
6	1894-11-03	27.87%	Third Lanark	1379	2	@ Dundee	1407	1
7	1894-11-03	28.70%	Clyde	1333	3	@ Dumbarton	1354	2
8	1894-10-20	29.70%	Heart of Midlothian	1462	1	@ Rangers	1475	0
9	1894-11-03	30.18%	Heart of Midlothian	1471	2	@ Celtic	1479	0
10	1894-08-18	31.14%	St. Mirren	1403	2	@ Leith Athletic	1404	1
11	1895-03-16	32.67%	St. Mirren	1409	1	@ Dundee	1398	0
12	1894-08-25	33.22%	Rangers	1451	4	@ St. Bernards	1435	1
13	1895-03-23	33.61%	St. Bernards	1433	1	@ St. Mirren	1414	0
14	1894-10-13	34.91%	Dundee	1403	4	@ Dumbarton	1374	2
15	1894-09-08	35.18%	Heart of Midlothian	1428	3	@ Third Lanark	1397	0
16	1894-11-10	36.55%	Celtic	1469	2	@ St. Bernards	1428	0
17	1894-09-08	36.58%	Celtic	1447	3	@ St. Mirren	1405	0
18	1894-09-15	36.72%	St. Bernards	1433	4	@ Dumbarton	1391	3
19	1894-10-13	36.74%	St. Bernards	1422	2	@ Leith Athletic	1380	0
20	1895-03-23	37.89%	@ Clyde	1335	3	Heart of Midlothian	1497	2
21	1894-10-13	38.62%	Heart of Midlothian	1458	2	@ St. Mirren	1402	1
22	1895-05-11	38.79%	St. Mirren	1391	2	@ Clyde	1333	0
23	1894-09-29	39.27%	Heart of Midlothian	1445	4	@ Dumbarton	1384	1
24	1895-03-02	39.29%	Third Lanark	1401	4	@ Dumbarton	1340	2
25	1895-04-06	39.34%	Heart of Midlothian	1500	3	@ St. Bernards	1438	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1894-09-22	17.31	Clyde	3	1322	18.55%	@ St. Bernards	0	1442	73.11%
2	1894-09-08	13.37	Heart of Midlothian	3	1428	35.18%	@ Third Lanark	0	1397	56.29%
3	1894-09-08	13.05	Celtic	3	1447	36.58%	@ St. Mirren	0	1405	54.89%
4	1895-04-06	12.43	Heart of Midlothian	3	1500	39.34%	@ St. Bernards	0	1438	52.12%
5	1894-08-25	11.66	Rangers	4	1451	33.22%	@ St. Bernards	1	1435	58.26%
6	1894-12-08	11.42	Rangers	5	1471	48.07%	@ Clyde	1	1348	43.42%
7	1894-12-22	10.75	@ Third Lanark	7	1384	64.19%	Leith Athletic	1	1351	27.34%
8	1895-05-11	10.55	@ Third Lanark	4	1411	58.75%	St. Bernards	0	1424	32.74%
9	1894-09-29	10.49	Heart of Midlothian	4	1445	39.27%	@ Dumbarton	1	1384	52.20%
10	1894-11-03	10.00	Heart of Midlothian	2	1471	30.18%	@ Celtic	0	1479	61.32%
11	1895-04-04	9.82	@ Third Lanark	4	1408	61.17%	St. Mirren	0	1400	30.33%
12	1895-02-16	9.70	@ Heart of Midlothian	4	1488	61.56%	Celtic	0	1477	29.95%
13	1894-10-20	9.69	@ Celtic	6	1469	71.57%	Dumbarton	0	1367	20.05%
14	1894-09-08	9.68	St. Bernards	4	1424	43.59%	@ Clyde	1	1332	47.88%
15	1894-12-01	9.58	Clyde	4	1338	15.94%	@ Heart of Midlothian	2	1490	75.79%
16	1894-12-22	9.21	@ St. Bernards	5	1424	68.84%	Dumbarton	0	1349	22.74%
17	1895-04-27	9.10	Dundee	3	1386	27.08%	@ Third Lanark	1	1420	64.45%
18	1894-11-17	9.06	Heart of Midlothian	4	1481	46.89%	@ Leith Athletic	1	1366	44.59%
19	1894-09-15	9.04	@ St. Mirren	5	1392	57.75%	Dundee	1	1412	33.73%
20	1894-11-10	8.98	Celtic	2	1469	36.55%	@ St. Bernards	0	1428	54.92%
21	1894-10-13	8.96	St. Bernards	2	1422	36.74%	@ Leith Athletic	0	1380	54.73%
22	1895-03-30	8.77	@ Dumbarton	4	1322	48.48%	St. Mirren	1	1409	42.99%
23	1895-05-11	8.64	St. Mirren	2	1391	38.79%	@ Clyde	0	1333	52.68%
24	1894-10-20	8.50	Third Lanark	4	1371	24.21%	@ St. Bernards	2	1431	67.35%
25	1894-12-22	8.20	Heart of Midlothian	2	1480	41.62%	@ Dundee	0	1402	49.85%