1894-95 Division One Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Heart of Midlothian

31 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Heart of Midlothian

6.41 points above expected

31 points · 24.59 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Leith Athletic

6.05 points below expected

7 points · 13.05 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Heart of Midlothian	18	15	1	2	31	50	18	+32	24.59	+6.41
2	Celtic	18	11	4	3	26	50	29	+21	23.58	+2.42
3	Rangers	18	10	2	6	22	41	26	+15	23.49	-1.49
4	Third Lanark	18	10	1	7	21	51	39	+12	18.05	+2.95
5	St. Mirren	18	9	1	8	19	34	34	0	17.76	+1.24
6	St. Bernards	18	8	1	9	17	37	40	-3	18.27	-1.27
7	Clyde	18	8	0	10	16	38	47	-9	12.29	+3.71
8	Dundee	18	6	2	10	14	28	33	-5	16.35	-2.35
9	Dumbarton	18	3	1	14	7	27	58	-31	12.57	-5.57
10	Leith Athletic	18	3	1	14	7	32	64	-32	13.05	-6.05

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Heart of Midlothian	1667	31	24.59	+6.41	98.1%	10	19	22	25	27	30	36
Celtic	1570	26	23.58	+2.42	79.4%	6	18	21	24	26	29	36
Rangers	1518	22	23.49	-1.49	38.8%	8	18	21	24	26	29	35
Third Lanark	1470	21	18.05	+2.95	82.9%	4	12	16	18	20	24	32
St. Mirren	1386	19	17.76	+1.24	67.1%	6	12	15	18	20	24	31
St. Bernards	1374	17	18.27	-1.27	41.3%	5	12	16	18	21	24	32
Dundee	1344	14	16.35	-2.35	31.1%	2	10	14	16	19	22	30
Clyde	1298	16	12.29	+3.71	87.9%	1	7	10	12	15	18	26
Dumbarton	1242	7	12.57	-5.57	7.8%	1	7	10	12	15	19	25
Leith Athletic	1221	7	13.05	-6.05	5.9%	0	7	11	13	15	19	26

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	CEL	CLY	DUM	DUN	HOM	LA	RAN	SB	SM	TL
Celtic	—	2-0-0 4.54	2-0-0 4.79	1-1-0 3.87	0-0-2 2.67	2-0-0 4.88	1-1-0 2.97	2-0-0 3.52	1-1-0 3.69	0-1-1 3.72
Clyde	0-0-2 1.29	—	2-0-0 3.23	1-0-1 2.04	2-0-0 0.85	1-0-1 2.52	0-0-2 1.51	1-0-1 1.64	0-0-2 2.39	1-0-1 2.24
Dumbarton	0-0-2 1.04	0-0-2 2.61	—	0-0-2 2.69	0-0-2 1.43	1-1-0 3.12	1-0-1 1.45	0-0-2 2.19	1-0-1 1.76	0-0-2 1.78
Dundee	0-1-1 1.97	1-0-1 3.80	2-0-0 3.15	—	0-0-2 1.27	1-0-1 3.70	1-0-1 1.54	0-1-1 2.89	0-0-2 2.83	1-0-1 2.61
Heart of Midlothian	2-0-0 3.16	0-0-2 4.98	2-0-0 4.41	2-0-0 4.56	—	2-0-0 4.74	1-1-0 3.11	2-0-0 4.18	2-0-0 3.68	2-0-0 3.28
Leith Athletic	0-0-2 0.96	1-0-1 3.31	0-1-1 2.71	1-0-1 2.13	0-0-2 1.09	—	0-0-2 1.42	0-0-2 2.24	0-0-2 2.60	1-0-1 2.35
Rangers	0-1-1 2.86	2-0-0 4.32	1-0-1 4.38	1-0-1 4.29	0-1-1 2.73	2-0-0 4.42	—	2-0-0 3.45	1-0-1 3.84	1-0-1 4.25
St. Bernards	0-0-2 2.31	1-0-1 4.20	2-0-0 3.64	1-1-0 2.94	0-0-2 1.66	2-0-0 3.59	0-0-2 2.38	—	2-0-0 2.75	0-0-2 3.14
St. Mirren	0-1-1 2.14	2-0-0 3.45	1-0-1 4.07	2-0-0 3.00	0-0-2 2.15	2-0-0 3.23	1-0-1 2.00	0-0-2 3.08	—	1-0-1 2.75
Third Lanark	1-1-0 2.12	1-0-1 3.60	2-0-0 4.06	1-0-1 3.22	0-0-2 2.55	1-0-1 3.48	1-0-1 1.59	2-0-0 2.69	1-0-1 3.09	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.73	+7.2
Allowed	0.83	-4.9
Differential	0.97	+3.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	1.11%	3.89%	6.67%	3.33%	2.78%	1.11%	18.89%
1	3.89%	3.33%	4.44%	2.22%	4.44%	2.22%	20.56%
2	6.67%	4.44%	2.22%	3.33%	4.44%	1.11%	22.22%
3	3.33%	2.22%	3.33%	—	3.33%	2.22%	14.44%
4	2.78%	4.44%	4.44%	3.33%	1.11%	—	16.11%
5+	1.11%	2.22%	1.11%	2.22%	—	1.11%	7.78%
Total	18.89%	20.56%	22.22%	14.44%	16.11%	7.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.16	2.16	+0.00
SD	1.65	1.65	2.42
CV	0.77	0.77	—
Max	7	7	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
1	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
5+	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	22.22%
Total	33.33%	16.67%	27.78%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.78	1.61	+1.17
SD	1.93	1.58	2.28
CV	0.69	0.98	—
Max	6	5	+6
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
1	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%	5.56%	27.78%
2	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	5.56%	38.89%	5.56%	33.33%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.11	2.61	-0.50
SD	1.41	1.46	2.33
CV	0.67	0.56	—
Max	5	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	11.11%	27.78%
1	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	16.67%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	22.22%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	27.78%	27.78%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	3.22	-1.72
SD	1.29	1.63	2.14
CV	0.86	0.51	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	33.33%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	38.89%	38.89%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	1.83	-0.28
SD	1.50	1.20	2.22
CV	0.97	0.65	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
2	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
4	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
5+	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
Total	50.00%	27.78%	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.78	1.00	+1.78
SD	1.44	1.33	1.63
CV	0.52	1.33	—
Max	6	4	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	38.89%
2	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	22.22%
3	—	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
Total	—	11.11%	22.22%	16.67%	22.22%	27.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.78	3.56	-1.78
SD	1.26	1.76	1.93
CV	0.71	0.49	—
Max	5	7	+1
Min	0	1	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
4	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
5+	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	22.22%	50.00%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.28	1.44	+0.83
SD	1.78	1.42	1.98
CV	0.78	0.99	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
2	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	33.33%
3	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
Total	27.78%	5.56%	16.67%	22.22%	22.22%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.06	2.22	-0.17
SD	1.76	1.70	2.64
CV	0.86	0.76	—
Max	6	5	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
1	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
2	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
4	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	22.22%	33.33%	11.11%	16.67%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.89	1.89	+0.00
SD	1.64	1.32	2.14
CV	0.87	0.70	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
2	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%
4	11.11%	—	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	33.33%
5+	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
Total	16.67%	16.67%	27.78%	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.83	2.17	+0.67
SD	2.01	1.58	2.61
CV	0.71	0.73	—
Max	7	6	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Heart of Midlothian	31	24.59	+6.41
2	Clyde	16	12.29	+3.71
3	Third Lanark	21	18.05	+2.95
4	Celtic	26	23.58	+2.42
5	St. Mirren	19	17.76	+1.24

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Leith Athletic	7	13.05	-6.05
2	Dumbarton	7	12.57	-5.57
3	Dundee	14	16.35	-2.35
4	Rangers	22	23.49	-1.49
5	St. Bernards	17	18.27	-1.27

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Heart of Midlothian	11	Aug 18 – Nov 17	1 in 514
2	Third Lanark	3	Oct 20 – Nov 10	1 in 25
3	Clyde	2	Sep 22 – Sep 29	1 in 19
4	Rangers	4	Aug 18 – Sep 8	1 in 8
5	Celtic	4	Sep 8 – Oct 20	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dumbarton	9	Sep 8 – Nov 10	1 in 159
2	Leith Athletic	6	Aug 18 – Sep 17	1 in 37
3	Rangers	2	Jan 26 – Feb 16	1 in 22
4	St. Mirren	3	Mar 23 – Apr 4	1 in 19
5	Heart of Midlothian	1	Dec 1 – Dec 1	1 in 17

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Heart of Midlothian	11	Aug 18 – Nov 17	1 in 108
2	Third Lanark	6	Dec 22 – Apr 6	1 in 47
3	St. Mirren	5	Nov 10 – Mar 16	1 in 31
4	Clyde	2	Sep 22 – Sep 29	1 in 9
5	Dumbarton	2	Mar 30 – Apr 6	1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dumbarton	9	Sep 8 – Nov 10	1 in 45
2	Celtic	3	Dec 22 – Feb 23	1 in 21
3	Leith Athletic	6	Aug 18 – Sep 17	1 in 15
4	Rangers	3	Jan 19 – Feb 16	1 in 15
5	St. Mirren	3	Mar 23 – Apr 4	1 in 10

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Heart of Midlothian	42.51%	26.60%	16.33%	7.91%	3.98%	1.61%	0.71%	0.24%	0.09%	0.02%
Celtic	26.60%	28.75%	22.04%	11.59%	5.66%	3.19%	1.35%	0.54%	0.26%	0.02%
Rangers	23.97%	26.72%	24.92%	12.48%	6.37%	3.23%	1.38%	0.56%	0.26%	0.11%
Third Lanark	1.78%	5.32%	10.43%	18.32%	20.25%	17.26%	12.27%	8.18%	4.46%	1.73%
St. Mirren	1.90%	4.62%	9.03%	16.05%	17.60%	17.39%	15.32%	9.72%	5.66%	2.71%
St. Bernards	2.24%	5.17%	10.17%	17.66%	19.43%	17.11%	12.33%	9.18%	4.72%	1.99%
Clyde	0.04%	0.20%	0.52%	1.77%	3.56%	7.14%	11.96%	19.57%	25.40%	29.84%
Dundee	0.88%	1.99%	4.95%	9.92%	14.58%	17.81%	20.02%	14.34%	9.85%	5.66%
Dumbarton	0.02%	0.28%	0.74%	2.01%	4.00%	6.84%	11.86%	18.26%	24.41%	31.58%
Leith Athletic	0.06%	0.35%	0.87%	2.29%	4.57%	8.42%	12.80%	19.41%	24.89%	26.34%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+18.89%

Clear Edge

55.56%7.78%36.67%

Elo Value

Home Edge

145 Elo

0.007 goals per Elo point

066.42400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.60 goals

Home-Tilted

-2+0.46+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.2

Top-Heavy

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

43%

Heart of Midlothian, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.28/gm

Tight Race

00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.89 * Some Luck: 2.89 to 4.33 * Lucky: 4.33 to 5.77 * Wild Swing: 5.77 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.18 * Close: 1.18 to 1.77 * Off: 1.77 to 2.36 * Way Off: 2.36 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.85 points

Some Luck

03.619

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.00

Pinpoint

01.473

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

98.09%

Heart of Midlothian

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

5.89%

Leith Athletic

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.23

Top-Heavy

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.80

Strong Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

76%

Clear Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 94%

93%

Dominant

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

39%

Some Drama

0%46%100%

Blowouts

Expected

33%

Very Frequent

0%30%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.49

Highly Predictable

00.482

Matchup Imbalance

0.41

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.17

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.69

Strong Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

29%

As Expected

0%27%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

22%

As Expected

0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.

Probability calibration

0.49

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.87

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.105

Well Within Noise

00.1590.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Celtic	99.98%	0.02%
Heart of Midlothian	99.98%	0.02%
Rangers	99.89%	0.11%
Third Lanark	98.27%	1.73%
St. Bernards	98.01%	1.99%
St. Mirren	97.29%	2.71%
Dundee	94.34%	5.66%
Leith Athletic	73.66%	26.34%
Clyde	70.16%	29.84%
Dumbarton	68.42%	31.58%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1894-08-11	Celtic	D 1-1	1379	1479	46.9%	8.2%	44.9%	-0.2	1
1894-08-11	@ Dundee	D 1-1	1479	1379	44.9%	8.2%	46.9%	+0.2	1
1894-08-18	St. Bernards	W 5-2	1479	1467	62.0%	8.2%	29.8%	+20.2	3
1894-08-18	@ Celtic	L 2-5	1467	1479	29.8%	8.2%	62.0%	-20.2	0
1894-08-18	Clyde	W 4-1	1379	1228	75.8%	8.2%	16.0%	+12.9	3
1894-08-18	@ Dundee	L 1-4	1228	1379	16.0%	8.2%	75.8%	-12.9	0
1894-08-18	Third Lanark	W 6-3	1443	1411	64.3%	8.2%	27.4%	+17.3	2
1894-08-18	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 3-6	1411	1443	27.4%	8.2%	64.3%	-17.3	0
1894-08-18	St. Mirren	L 1-2	1398	1401	60.0%	8.2%	31.8%	-18.3	0
1894-08-18	@ Leith Athletic	W 2-1	1401	1398	31.8%	8.2%	60.0%	+18.3	2
1894-08-18	Dumbarton	W 3-0	1479	1405	68.9%	8.2%	22.9%	+21.5	2
1894-08-18	@ Rangers	L 0-3	1405	1479	22.9%	8.2%	68.9%	-21.6	0
1894-08-25	Leith Athletic	W 5-2	1215	1380	37.8%	8.2%	54.0%	+35.1	2
1894-08-25	@ Clyde	L 2-5	1380	1215	54.0%	8.2%	37.8%	-35.2	0
1894-08-25	Rangers	L 1-4	1446	1501	53.3%	8.2%	38.5%	-40.1	0
1894-08-25	@ St. Bernards	W 4-1	1501	1446	38.5%	8.2%	53.3%	+40.1	4
1894-08-25	Celtic	W 2-1	1393	1499	46.0%	8.2%	45.7%	+14.2	2
1894-08-25	@ Third Lanark	L 1-2	1499	1393	45.7%	8.2%	46.0%	-14.2	3
1894-09-01	Leith Athletic	W 3-2	1384	1345	65.1%	8.2%	26.7%	+8.1	2
1894-09-01	@ Dumbarton	L 2-3	1345	1384	26.7%	8.2%	65.1%	-8.1	0
1894-09-01	St. Mirren	W 1-0	1461	1420	65.3%	8.2%	26.5%	+9.0	4
1894-09-01	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-1	1420	1461	26.5%	8.2%	65.3%	-9.0	2
1894-09-01	Dundee	W 1-0	1541	1392	75.7%	8.2%	16.1%	+5.6	6
1894-09-01	@ Rangers	L 0-1	1392	1541	16.1%	8.2%	75.7%	-5.6	3
1894-09-08	St. Bernards	L 1-4	1250	1406	39.0%	8.2%	52.8%	-30.0	2
1894-09-08	@ Clyde	W 4-1	1406	1250	52.8%	8.2%	39.0%	+30.0	2
1894-09-08	Dumbarton	W 3-0	1386	1392	59.7%	8.2%	32.0%	+29.6	5
1894-09-08	@ Dundee	L 0-3	1392	1386	32.0%	8.2%	59.7%	-29.6	2
1894-09-08	Rangers	L 3-4	1336	1547	31.8%	8.2%	60.0%	-9.4	0
1894-09-08	@ Leith Athletic	W 4-3	1547	1336	60.0%	8.2%	31.8%	+9.4	8
1894-09-08	Celtic	L 0-3	1411	1485	50.5%	8.2%	41.2%	-45.2	2
1894-09-08	@ St. Mirren	W 3-0	1485	1411	41.2%	8.2%	50.5%	+45.2	5
1894-09-08	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-3	1408	1470	52.2%	8.2%	39.5%	-46.6	2
1894-09-08	@ Third Lanark	W 3-0	1470	1408	39.5%	8.2%	52.2%	+46.6	6
1894-09-15	St. Bernards	L 3-4	1362	1436	50.5%	8.2%	41.2%	-14.4	2
1894-09-15	@ Dumbarton	W 4-3	1436	1362	41.2%	8.2%	50.5%	+14.4	4
1894-09-15	Leith Athletic	W 3-1	1516	1327	78.5%	8.2%	13.3%	+7.6	8
1894-09-15	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-3	1327	1516	13.3%	8.2%	78.5%	-7.6	0
1894-09-15	Dundee	W 5-1	1365	1416	53.9%	8.2%	37.9%	+37.7	4
1894-09-15	@ St. Mirren	L 1-5	1416	1365	37.9%	8.2%	53.9%	-37.7	5
1894-09-17	Leith Athletic	W 6-3	1451	1319	74.2%	8.2%	17.6%	+11.3	6
1894-09-17	@ St. Bernards	L 3-6	1319	1451	17.6%	8.2%	74.2%	-11.3	0
1894-09-22	Rangers	W 5-3	1530	1556	57.1%	8.2%	34.6%	+16.1	7
1894-09-22	@ Celtic	L 3-5	1556	1530	34.6%	8.2%	57.1%	-16.1	8
1894-09-22	Third Lanark	W 3-2	1308	1361	53.5%	8.2%	38.2%	+11.4	2
1894-09-22	@ Leith Athletic	L 2-3	1361	1308	38.2%	8.2%	53.5%	-11.4	2
1894-09-22	Clyde	L 0-3	1462	1220	81.7%	8.2%	10.2%	-72.9	6
1894-09-22	@ St. Bernards	W 3-0	1220	1462	10.2%	8.2%	81.7%	+72.9	4
1894-09-22	Dumbarton	W 4-3	1403	1348	66.9%	8.2%	24.9%	+7.4	6
1894-09-22	@ St. Mirren	L 3-4	1348	1403	24.9%	8.2%	66.9%	-7.4	2
1894-09-29	Third Lanark	W 4-3	1293	1349	53.0%	8.2%	38.7%	+11.3	6
1894-09-29	@ Clyde	L 3-4	1349	1293	38.7%	8.2%	53.0%	-11.3	2
1894-09-29	Heart of Midlothian	L 1-4	1340	1524	35.2%	8.2%	56.5%	-27.3	2
1894-09-29	@ Dumbarton	W 4-1	1524	1340	56.5%	8.2%	35.2%	+27.3	10
1894-09-29	St. Bernards	D 2-2	1378	1389	59.0%	8.2%	32.8%	-1.6	6
1894-09-29	@ Dundee	D 2-2	1389	1378	32.8%	8.2%	59.0%	+1.6	7
1894-09-29	St. Mirren	W 4-3	1540	1411	74.0%	8.2%	17.8%	+5.4	10
1894-09-29	@ Rangers	L 3-4	1411	1540	17.8%	8.2%	74.0%	-5.4	6
1894-10-06	St. Bernards	W 4-3	1551	1391	76.5%	8.2%	15.3%	+4.7	12
1894-10-06	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 3-4	1391	1551	15.3%	8.2%	76.5%	-4.7	7
1894-10-13	Celtic	L 2-4	1304	1546	28.0%	8.2%	63.8%	-13.9	6
1894-10-13	@ Clyde	W 4-2	1546	1304	63.8%	8.2%	28.0%	+13.9	9
1894-10-13	Dundee	L 2-4	1313	1376	52.0%	8.2%	39.7%	-24.8	2
1894-10-13	@ Dumbarton	W 4-2	1376	1313	39.7%	8.2%	52.0%	+24.8	8
1894-10-13	St. Bernards	L 0-2	1320	1386	51.6%	8.2%	40.1%	-31.8	2
1894-10-13	@ Leith Athletic	W 2-0	1386	1320	40.1%	8.2%	51.6%	+31.8	9
1894-10-13	Heart of Midlothian	L 1-2	1405	1556	39.7%	8.2%	52.1%	-12.5	6
1894-10-13	@ St. Mirren	W 2-1	1556	1405	52.1%	8.2%	39.7%	+12.5	14
1894-10-13	Rangers	L 0-2	1338	1545	32.2%	8.2%	59.6%	-20.5	2
1894-10-13	@ Third Lanark	W 2-0	1545	1338	59.6%	8.2%	32.2%	+20.5	12
1894-10-20	Dumbarton	W 6-0	1560	1288	83.2%	8.2%	8.7%	+16.0	11
1894-10-20	@ Celtic	L 0-6	1288	1560	8.7%	8.2%	83.2%	-16.1	2
1894-10-20	Dundee	W 3-2	1288	1401	45.0%	8.2%	46.8%	+13.8	4
1894-10-20	@ Leith Athletic	L 2-3	1401	1288	46.8%	8.2%	45.0%	-13.8	8
1894-10-20	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-1	1566	1568	60.1%	8.2%	31.6%	-19.5	12
1894-10-20	@ Rangers	W 1-0	1568	1566	31.6%	8.2%	60.1%	+19.5	16
1894-10-20	Third Lanark	L 2-4	1418	1318	71.4%	8.2%	20.4%	-33.8	9
1894-10-20	@ St. Bernards	W 4-2	1318	1418	20.4%	8.2%	71.4%	+33.8	4
1894-10-20	Clyde	W 4-2	1393	1291	71.6%	8.2%	20.2%	+10.2	8
1894-10-20	@ St. Mirren	L 2-4	1291	1393	20.2%	8.2%	71.6%	-10.2	6
1894-10-27	Dumbarton	W 3-1	1588	1272	85.0%	8.1%	6.9%	+4.0	18
1894-10-27	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-3	1272	1588	6.9%	8.1%	85.0%	-4.0	2
1894-11-03	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-2	1576	1592	58.5%	8.2%	33.3%	-35.8	11
1894-11-03	@ Celtic	W 2-0	1592	1576	33.3%	8.2%	58.5%	+35.8	20
1894-11-03	Clyde	L 2-3	1268	1280	58.9%	8.2%	32.9%	-17.1	2
1894-11-03	@ Dumbarton	W 3-2	1280	1268	32.9%	8.2%	58.9%	+17.1	8
1894-11-03	Third Lanark	L 1-2	1387	1352	64.7%	8.2%	27.1%	-19.8	8
1894-11-03	@ Dundee	W 2-1	1352	1387	27.1%	8.2%	64.7%	+19.8	6
1894-11-03	Leith Athletic	W 5-1	1546	1302	81.8%	8.2%	10.0%	+10.5	14
1894-11-03	@ Rangers	L 1-5	1302	1546	10.0%	8.2%	81.8%	-10.5	4
1894-11-03	St. Mirren	W 2-0	1384	1403	58.0%	8.2%	33.8%	+21.4	11
1894-11-03	@ St. Bernards	L 0-2	1403	1384	33.8%	8.2%	58.0%	-21.4	8
1894-11-10	Celtic	L 0-2	1405	1540	41.9%	8.2%	49.9%	-26.2	11
1894-11-10	@ St. Bernards	W 2-0	1540	1405	49.9%	8.2%	41.9%	+26.2	13
1894-11-10	Leith Athletic	W 3-2	1382	1291	70.5%	8.2%	21.3%	+6.6	10
1894-11-10	@ St. Mirren	L 2-3	1291	1382	21.3%	8.2%	70.5%	-6.6	4
1894-11-10	Dumbarton	W 6-3	1371	1251	73.2%	8.2%	18.5%	+11.9	8
1894-11-10	@ Third Lanark	L 3-6	1251	1371	18.5%	8.2%	73.2%	-11.9	2
1894-11-17	Heart of Midlothian	L 1-4	1284	1627	17.8%	8.2%	74.0%	-14.2	4
1894-11-17	@ Leith Athletic	W 4-1	1627	1284	74.0%	8.2%	17.8%	+14.2	22
1894-12-01	Rangers	W 1-0	1239	1557	20.0%	8.2%	71.8%	+23.3	4
1894-12-01	@ Dumbarton	L 0-1	1557	1239	71.8%	8.2%	20.0%	-23.3	14
1894-12-01	Leith Athletic	W 4-1	1368	1270	71.2%	8.2%	20.6%	+16.4	10
1894-12-01	@ Dundee	L 1-4	1270	1368	20.6%	8.2%	71.2%	-16.4	4
1894-12-01	Clyde	L 2-4	1642	1298	86.0%	8.1%	5.9%	-41.0	22
1894-12-01	@ Heart of Midlothian	W 4-2	1298	1642	5.9%	8.1%	86.0%	+41.0	10
1894-12-01	Third Lanark	W 2-0	1388	1383	61.0%	8.2%	30.7%	+19.6	12
1894-12-01	@ St. Mirren	L 0-2	1383	1388	30.7%	8.2%	61.0%	-19.6	8
1894-12-08	Rangers	L 1-5	1339	1533	33.7%	8.2%	58.0%	-33.8	10
1894-12-08	@ Clyde	W 5-1	1533	1339	58.0%	8.2%	33.7%	+33.8	16
1894-12-08	Dundee	W 2-0	1379	1384	59.8%	8.2%	31.9%	+20.3	13
1894-12-08	@ St. Bernards	L 0-2	1384	1379	31.9%	8.2%	59.8%	-20.3	10
1894-12-22	St. Mirren	D 2-2	1567	1408	76.4%	8.2%	15.4%	-3.8	14
1894-12-22	@ Celtic	D 2-2	1408	1567	15.4%	8.2%	76.4%	+3.7	13
1894-12-22	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-2	1364	1601	28.5%	8.2%	63.2%	-18.3	10
1894-12-22	@ Dundee	W 2-0	1601	1364	63.2%	8.2%	28.5%	+18.3	24
1894-12-22	Dumbarton	W 5-0	1400	1262	74.7%	8.2%	17.1%	+26.2	15
1894-12-22	@ St. Bernards	L 0-5	1262	1400	17.1%	8.2%	74.7%	-26.2	4
1894-12-22	Leith Athletic	W 7-1	1364	1254	72.3%	8.2%	19.5%	+29.1	10
1894-12-22	@ Third Lanark	L 1-7	1254	1364	19.5%	8.2%	72.3%	-29.1	4
1895-01-19	Rangers	D 0-0	1619	1567	66.5%	8.2%	25.3%	-3.7	25
1895-01-19	@ Heart of Midlothian	D 0-0	1567	1619	25.3%	8.2%	66.5%	+3.7	17
1895-01-26	Rangers	W 2-1	1345	1571	29.9%	8.2%	61.9%	+18.9	12
1895-01-26	@ Dundee	L 1-2	1571	1345	61.9%	8.2%	29.9%	-18.9	17
1895-02-16	Celtic	W 4-0	1615	1563	66.6%	8.2%	25.2%	+30.8	27
1895-02-16	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-4	1563	1615	25.2%	8.2%	66.6%	-30.8	14
1895-02-16	Third Lanark	L 0-1	1552	1393	76.4%	8.2%	15.4%	-24.8	17
1895-02-16	@ Rangers	W 1-0	1393	1552	15.4%	8.2%	76.4%	+24.8	12
1895-02-22	Clyde	W 4-1	1527	1305	80.6%	8.2%	11.2%	+9.1	19
1895-02-22	@ Rangers	L 1-4	1305	1527	11.2%	8.2%	80.6%	-9.1	10
1895-02-23	Third Lanark	D 4-4	1532	1418	72.7%	8.2%	19.1%	-2.4	15
1895-02-23	@ Celtic	D 4-4	1418	1532	19.1%	8.2%	72.7%	+2.4	13
1895-03-02	Third Lanark	L 2-4	1236	1420	35.2%	8.2%	56.6%	-17.2	4
1895-03-02	@ Dumbarton	W 4-2	1420	1236	56.6%	8.2%	35.2%	+17.2	15
1895-03-02	Clyde	W 2-1	1225	1296	51.0%	8.2%	40.8%	+12.8	6
1895-03-02	@ Leith Athletic	L 1-2	1296	1225	40.8%	8.2%	51.0%	-12.8	10
1895-03-09	Celtic	L 0-2	1219	1530	20.7%	8.2%	71.1%	-13.5	4
1895-03-09	@ Dumbarton	W 2-0	1530	1219	71.1%	8.2%	20.7%	+13.5	17
1895-03-09	Rangers	W 4-2	1411	1536	43.3%	8.2%	48.5%	+23.2	15
1895-03-09	@ St. Mirren	L 2-4	1536	1411	48.5%	8.2%	43.3%	-23.2	19
1895-03-16	Leith Athletic	W 4-0	1543	1237	84.6%	8.1%	7.2%	+9.2	19
1895-03-16	@ Celtic	L 0-4	1237	1543	7.2%	8.1%	84.6%	-9.2	6
1895-03-16	Dumbarton	W 3-1	1283	1205	69.2%	8.2%	22.6%	+12.7	12
1895-03-16	@ Clyde	L 1-3	1205	1283	22.6%	8.2%	69.2%	-12.7	4
1895-03-16	St. Mirren	L 0-1	1364	1435	51.1%	8.2%	40.7%	-16.7	12
1895-03-16	@ Dundee	W 1-0	1435	1364	40.7%	8.2%	51.1%	+16.7	17
1895-03-23	Heart of Midlothian	W 3-2	1296	1646	17.1%	8.2%	74.7%	+21.7	14
1895-03-23	@ Clyde	L 2-3	1646	1296	74.7%	8.2%	17.1%	-21.7	27
1895-03-23	Celtic	D 1-1	1513	1552	55.4%	8.2%	36.4%	-1.5	20
1895-03-23	@ Rangers	D 1-1	1552	1513	36.4%	8.2%	55.4%	+1.5	20
1895-03-23	St. Bernards	L 0-1	1451	1426	63.5%	8.2%	28.2%	-20.6	17
1895-03-23	@ St. Mirren	W 1-0	1426	1451	28.2%	8.2%	63.5%	+20.6	17
1895-03-30	St. Mirren	W 4-1	1193	1431	28.4%	8.2%	63.4%	+47.4	6
1895-03-30	@ Dumbarton	L 1-4	1431	1193	63.4%	8.2%	28.4%	-47.4	17
1895-03-30	Dundee	W 4-0	1624	1348	83.4%	8.2%	8.5%	+10.7	29
1895-03-30	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-4	1348	1624	8.5%	8.2%	83.4%	-10.7	12
1895-03-30	Celtic	L 5-6	1228	1554	19.3%	8.2%	72.5%	-5.7	6
1895-03-30	@ Leith Athletic	W 6-5	1554	1228	72.5%	8.2%	19.3%	+5.7	22
1895-04-04	St. Mirren	W 4-0	1437	1383	66.7%	8.2%	25.0%	+30.7	17
1895-04-04	@ Third Lanark	L 0-4	1383	1437	25.0%	8.2%	66.7%	-30.7	17
1895-04-06	Dumbarton	D 1-1	1223	1240	58.2%	8.2%	33.6%	-2.0	7
1895-04-06	@ Leith Athletic	D 1-1	1240	1223	33.6%	8.2%	58.2%	+2.0	7
1895-04-06	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-3	1446	1635	34.5%	8.2%	57.2%	-31.8	17
1895-04-06	@ St. Bernards	W 3-0	1635	1446	57.2%	8.2%	34.5%	+31.8	31
1895-04-06	Clyde	W 4-2	1468	1317	75.8%	8.2%	16.0%	+8.2	19
1895-04-06	@ Third Lanark	L 2-4	1317	1468	16.0%	8.2%	75.8%	-8.2	14
1895-04-27	Clyde	W 2-0	1559	1309	82.1%	8.2%	9.7%	+6.5	24
1895-04-27	@ Celtic	L 0-2	1309	1559	9.7%	8.2%	82.1%	-6.5	14
1895-04-27	St. Bernards	W 2-1	1512	1415	71.1%	8.2%	20.6%	+6.7	22
1895-04-27	@ Rangers	L 1-2	1415	1512	20.6%	8.2%	71.1%	-6.7	17
1895-04-27	Dundee	L 1-3	1476	1337	74.8%	8.2%	17.0%	-39.7	19
1895-04-27	@ Third Lanark	W 3-1	1337	1476	17.0%	8.2%	74.8%	+39.7	14
1895-05-04	Dundee	W 2-1	1566	1377	78.5%	8.2%	13.2%	+4.4	26
1895-05-04	@ Celtic	L 1-2	1377	1566	13.2%	8.2%	78.5%	-4.4	14
1895-05-11	St. Mirren	L 0-2	1303	1353	53.9%	8.2%	37.9%	-33.1	14
1895-05-11	@ Clyde	W 2-0	1353	1303	37.9%	8.2%	53.9%	+33.1	19
1895-05-11	St. Bernards	W 4-0	1436	1408	63.9%	8.2%	27.9%	+34.0	21
1895-05-11	@ Third Lanark	L 0-4	1408	1436	27.9%	8.2%	63.9%	-34.0	17
1895-05-18	Dundee	W 2-0	1270	1372	46.5%	8.2%	45.3%	+28.1	16
1895-05-18	@ Clyde	L 0-2	1372	1270	45.3%	8.2%	46.5%	-28.1	14

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1894-12-01	5.89%	Clyde	1298	4	@ Heart of Midlothian	1642	2
2	1894-09-22	10.15%	Clyde	1220	3	@ St. Bernards	1462	0
3	1895-02-16	15.36%	Third Lanark	1393	1	@ Rangers	1552	0
4	1895-04-27	16.95%	Dundee	1337	3	@ Third Lanark	1476	1
5	1895-03-23	17.14%	@ Clyde	1296	3	Heart of Midlothian	1646	2
6	1894-12-01	20.02%	@ Dumbarton	1239	1	Rangers	1557	0
7	1894-10-20	20.37%	Third Lanark	1318	4	@ St. Bernards	1418	2
8	1894-11-03	27.05%	Third Lanark	1352	2	@ Dundee	1387	1
9	1895-03-23	28.24%	St. Bernards	1426	1	@ St. Mirren	1451	0
10	1895-03-30	28.40%	@ Dumbarton	1193	4	St. Mirren	1431	1
11	1895-01-26	29.88%	@ Dundee	1345	2	Rangers	1571	1
12	1894-10-20	31.64%	Heart of Midlothian	1568	1	@ Rangers	1566	0
13	1894-08-18	31.75%	St. Mirren	1401	2	@ Leith Athletic	1398	1
14	1894-11-03	32.89%	Clyde	1280	3	@ Dumbarton	1268	2
15	1894-11-03	33.29%	Heart of Midlothian	1592	2	@ Celtic	1576	0
16	1894-08-25	37.77%	@ Clyde	1215	5	Leith Athletic	1380	2
17	1895-05-11	37.88%	St. Mirren	1353	2	@ Clyde	1303	0
18	1894-08-25	38.48%	Rangers	1501	4	@ St. Bernards	1446	1
19	1894-09-08	39.53%	Heart of Midlothian	1470	3	@ Third Lanark	1408	0
20	1894-10-13	39.71%	Dundee	1376	4	@ Dumbarton	1313	2
21	1894-10-13	40.14%	St. Bernards	1386	2	@ Leith Athletic	1320	0
22	1895-03-16	40.68%	St. Mirren	1435	1	@ Dundee	1364	0
23	1894-09-15	41.22%	St. Bernards	1436	4	@ Dumbarton	1362	3
24	1894-09-08	41.23%	Celtic	1485	3	@ St. Mirren	1411	0
25	1895-03-09	43.30%	@ St. Mirren	1411	4	Rangers	1536	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1894-09-22	72.88	Clyde	3	1220	10.15%	@ St. Bernards	0	1462	81.68%	8.17%
2	1895-03-30	47.43	@ Dumbarton	4	1193	28.40%	St. Mirren	1	1431	63.37%	8.23%
3	1894-09-08	46.64	Heart of Midlothian	3	1470	39.53%	@ Third Lanark	0	1408	52.22%	8.25%
4	1894-09-08	45.21	Celtic	3	1485	41.23%	@ St. Mirren	0	1411	50.52%	8.25%
5	1894-12-01	41.04	Clyde	4	1298	5.89%	@ Heart of Midlothian	2	1642	86.00%	8.12%
6	1894-08-25	40.08	Rangers	4	1501	38.48%	@ St. Bernards	1	1446	53.27%	8.25%
7	1895-04-27	39.67	Dundee	3	1337	16.95%	@ Third Lanark	1	1476	74.83%	8.21%
8	1894-09-15	37.72	@ St. Mirren	5	1365	53.87%	Dundee	1	1416	37.88%	8.25%
9	1894-11-03	35.79	Heart of Midlothian	2	1592	33.29%	@ Celtic	0	1576	58.46%	8.25%
10	1894-08-25	35.16	@ Clyde	5	1215	37.77%	Leith Athletic	2	1380	53.99%	8.24%
11	1895-05-11	33.97	@ Third Lanark	4	1436	63.86%	St. Bernards	0	1408	27.90%	8.24%
12	1894-12-08	33.84	Rangers	5	1533	58.03%	@ Clyde	1	1339	33.73%	8.24%
13	1894-10-20	33.82	Third Lanark	4	1318	20.37%	@ St. Bernards	2	1418	71.41%	8.23%
14	1895-05-11	33.08	St. Mirren	2	1353	37.88%	@ Clyde	0	1303	53.87%	8.25%
15	1895-04-06	31.78	Heart of Midlothian	3	1635	57.23%	@ St. Bernards	0	1446	34.53%	8.24%
16	1894-10-13	31.76	St. Bernards	2	1386	40.14%	@ Leith Athletic	0	1320	51.61%	8.25%
17	1895-02-16	30.85	@ Heart of Midlothian	4	1615	66.57%	Celtic	0	1563	25.20%	8.24%
18	1895-04-04	30.67	@ Third Lanark	4	1437	66.72%	St. Mirren	0	1383	25.04%	8.24%
19	1894-09-08	29.97	St. Bernards	4	1406	52.81%	@ Clyde	1	1250	38.95%	8.24%
20	1894-09-08	29.63	@ Dundee	3	1386	59.70%	Dumbarton	0	1392	32.05%	8.25%
21	1894-12-22	29.11	@ Third Lanark	7	1364	72.31%	Leith Athletic	1	1254	19.46%	8.22%
22	1895-05-18	28.13	@ Clyde	2	1270	46.47%	Dundee	0	1372	45.28%	8.25%
23	1894-09-29	27.29	Heart of Midlothian	4	1524	56.55%	@ Dumbarton	1	1340	35.21%	8.24%
24	1894-12-22	26.24	@ St. Bernards	5	1400	74.68%	Dumbarton	0	1262	17.11%	8.22%
25	1894-11-10	26.17	Celtic	2	1540	49.90%	@ St. Bernards	0	1405	41.86%	8.25%