1893-94 Division One Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Celtic

29 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Heart of Midlothian

8.47 points above expected

26 points · 17.53 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Renton

6.37 points below expected

4 points · 10.37 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Celtic	18	14	1	3	29	53	32	+21	25.60	+3.40
2	Heart of Midlothian	18	11	4	3	26	46	32	+14	17.53	+8.47
3	St. Bernards	18	11	1	6	23	53	39	+14	19.73	+3.27
4	Rangers	18	8	4	6	20	44	30	+14	21.73	-1.73
5	Dumbarton	18	7	5	6	19	32	35	-3	17.09	+1.91
6	St. Mirren	18	7	3	8	17	49	47	+2	17.89	-0.89
7	Third Lanark	18	7	3	8	17	38	44	-6	17.02	-0.02
8	Dundee	18	6	3	9	15	47	59	-12	17.11	-2.11
9	Leith Athletic	18	4	2	12	10	36	46	-10	15.94	-5.94
10	Renton	18	1	2	15	4	23	57	-34	10.37	-6.37

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Celtic	1701	29	25.60	+3.40	87.4%	12	20	23	26	28	31	35
St. Bernards	1662	23	19.73	+3.27	84.6%	5	14	17	20	22	26	32
Rangers	1659	20	21.73	-1.73	35.9%	8	16	19	22	24	27	34
Heart of Midlothian	1635	26	17.53	+8.47	99.1%	4	11	15	17	20	24	34
Third Lanark	1580	17	17.02	-0.02	55.2%	4	11	14	17	20	23	30
Dumbarton	1575	19	17.09	+1.91	74.0%	3	11	15	17	20	23	32
St. Mirren	1553	17	17.89	-0.89	46.1%	5	12	15	18	20	24	32
Leith Athletic	1542	10	15.94	-5.94	7.0%	3	10	13	16	18	22	29
Dundee	1525	15	17.11	-2.11	33.5%	3	11	15	17	20	23	30
Renton	1346	4	10.37	-6.37	3.7%	0	5	8	10	13	16	24

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	CEL	DUM	DUN	HOM	LA	RAN	REN	SB	SM	TL
Celtic	—	1-1-0 4.16	2-0-0 4.07	1-0-1 4.00	1-0-1 4.37	1-0-1 3.84	2-0-0 4.79	2-0-0 3.71	2-0-0 3.96	2-0-0 4.00
Dumbarton	0-1-1 1.51	—	0-1-1 3.01	0-1-1 2.73	2-0-0 3.09	1-0-1 1.96	1-1-0 3.90	0-0-2 2.66	1-1-0 2.57	2-0-0 2.79
Dundee	0-0-2 1.61	1-1-0 2.66	—	0-0-2 2.59	2-0-0 2.98	0-1-1 2.37	2-0-0 3.95	1-0-1 2.28	0-0-2 3.01	0-1-1 2.69
Heart of Midlothian	1-0-1 1.67	1-1-0 2.94	2-0-0 3.08	—	0-1-1 3.04	2-0-0 2.09	2-0-0 4.26	1-0-1 2.47	1-1-0 2.77	1-1-0 2.59
Leith Athletic	1-0-1 1.31	0-0-2 2.58	0-0-2 2.70	1-1-0 2.63	—	0-1-1 1.65	1-0-1 3.84	1-0-1 2.01	0-0-2 2.87	0-0-2 2.74
Rangers	1-0-1 1.83	1-0-1 3.72	1-1-0 3.30	0-0-2 3.58	1-1-0 4.03	—	2-0-0 4.24	0-1-1 3.13	1-1-0 3.24	1-0-1 4.09
Renton	0-0-2 0.90	0-1-1 1.77	0-0-2 1.73	0-0-2 1.42	1-0-1 1.83	0-0-2 1.44	—	0-0-2 1.52	0-0-2 1.77	0-1-1 1.70
St. Bernards	0-0-2 1.96	2-0-0 3.01	1-0-1 3.40	1-0-1 3.20	1-0-1 3.67	1-1-0 2.54	2-0-0 4.16	—	2-0-0 3.11	1-0-1 3.16
St. Mirren	0-0-2 1.72	0-1-1 3.10	2-0-0 2.66	0-1-1 2.90	2-0-0 2.80	0-1-1 2.43	2-0-0 3.91	0-0-2 2.56	—	1-0-1 3.27
Third Lanark	0-0-2 1.67	0-0-2 2.88	1-1-0 2.98	0-1-1 3.09	2-0-0 2.93	1-0-1 1.58	1-1-0 3.98	1-0-1 2.51	1-0-1 2.40	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.60	+5.9
Allowed	0.62	-5.6
Differential	0.89	+4.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.22%	1.11%	1.67%	2.78%	1.67%	2.22%	11.67%
1	1.11%	4.44%	7.78%	5.00%	1.11%	2.22%	21.67%
2	1.67%	7.78%	5.56%	4.44%	4.44%	2.78%	26.67%
3	2.78%	5.00%	4.44%	3.33%	1.11%	3.33%	20.00%
4	1.67%	1.11%	4.44%	1.11%	—	0.56%	8.89%
5+	2.22%	2.22%	2.78%	3.33%	0.56%	—	11.11%
Total	11.67%	21.67%	26.67%	20.00%	8.89%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.34	2.34	+0.00
SD	1.70	1.70	2.53
CV	0.72	0.72	—
Max	10	10	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%	16.67%
1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	27.78%
4	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
Total	16.67%	38.89%	22.22%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.94	1.78	+1.17
SD	1.70	1.56	2.66
CV	0.58	0.87	—
Max	5	5	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%	—	16.67%
1	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	27.78%
2	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	33.33%	22.22%	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.78	1.94	-0.17
SD	1.26	1.63	2.07
CV	0.71	0.84	—
Max	4	5	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	11.11%	—	—	11.11%
1	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%	11.11%
3	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
4	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
Total	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	44.44%	11.11%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.61	3.28	-0.67
SD	2.06	2.32	3.31
CV	0.79	0.71	—
Max	8	10	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
1	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
2	—	16.67%	16.67%	—	11.11%	—	44.44%
3	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	27.78%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	5.56%	33.33%	50.00%	—	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.56	1.78	+0.78
SD	1.25	1.00	1.70
CV	0.49	0.56	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	—	—	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	44.44%
3	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	11.11%	27.78%	22.22%	16.67%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	2.56	-0.56
SD	1.19	1.50	2.01
CV	0.59	0.59	—
Max	5	5	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	—	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	33.33%
3	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
Total	27.78%	11.11%	33.33%	22.22%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.44	1.67	+0.78
SD	2.01	1.28	2.51
CV	0.82	0.77	—
Max	7	4	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	27.78%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	11.11%	27.78%
2	—	5.56%	—	16.67%	11.11%	—	33.33%
3	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	16.67%	16.67%	33.33%	16.67%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	3.17	-1.89
SD	1.02	1.72	1.84
CV	0.80	0.54	—
Max	3	8	+1
Min	0	1	-7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
3	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	27.78%
4	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
Total	11.11%	27.78%	33.33%	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.94	2.17	+0.78
SD	1.95	1.62	2.29
CV	0.66	0.75	—
Max	8	5	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	33.33%
2	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	22.22%
4	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
Total	11.11%	11.11%	33.33%	27.78%	—	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.72	2.61	+0.11
SD	2.30	1.91	3.18
CV	0.84	0.73	—
Max	10	8	+7
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	16.67%	—	—	33.33%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
3	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	16.67%	22.22%	33.33%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.11	2.44	-0.33
SD	1.28	1.58	2.25
CV	0.61	0.65	—
Max	5	6	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Heart of Midlothian	26	17.53	+8.47
2	Celtic	29	25.60	+3.40
3	St. Bernards	23	19.73	+3.27
4	Dumbarton	19	17.09	+1.91
5	Third Lanark	17	17.02	-0.02

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Renton	4	10.37	-6.37
2	Leith Athletic	10	15.94	-5.94
3	Dundee	15	17.11	-2.11
4	Rangers	20	21.73	-1.73
5	St. Mirren	17	17.89	-0.89

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Celtic	11	Sep 9 – Feb 24	1 in 162
2	Heart of Midlothian	4	Oct 7 – Nov 4	1 in 63
3	St. Bernards	4	Mar 10 – May 2	1 in 26
4	Dumbarton	3	Jan 20 – Mar 17	1 in 13
5	Rangers	3	Sep 2 – Sep 23	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dundee	5	Sep 23 – Nov 4	1 in 57
2	Renton	9	Oct 21 – Feb 10	1 in 50
3	Celtic	2	Mar 10 – Mar 17	1 in 37
4	Leith Athletic	4	Aug 23 – Sep 9	1 in 24
5	Rangers	2	Dec 23 – Jan 20	1 in 19

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Heart of Midlothian	11	Sep 23 – Mar 10	1 in 489
2	Rangers	7	Aug 12 – Sep 30	1 in 16
3	Celtic	11	Sep 9 – Feb 24	1 in 13
4	St. Bernards	4	Mar 10 – May 2	1 in 7
5	Dumbarton	4	Sep 30 – Oct 28	1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Renton	16	Aug 23 – Feb 10	1 in 45
2	Leith Athletic	7	Oct 28 – Mar 10	1 in 24
3	Dundee	6	Sep 16 – Nov 4	1 in 19
4	Dumbarton	5	Sep 16 – Oct 21	1 in 17
5	Third Lanark	4	Sep 2 – Sep 30	1 in 17

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Celtic	65.85%	18.92%	7.86%	3.87%	1.94%	0.85%	0.40%	0.22%	0.07%	0.02%
Heart of Midlothian	2.39%	7.90%	11.72%	13.14%	13.39%	13.90%	13.32%	11.32%	9.30%	3.62%
St. Bernards	7.09%	16.94%	18.21%	15.81%	13.02%	10.36%	7.79%	6.08%	3.77%	0.93%
Rangers	16.26%	28.97%	19.12%	12.79%	8.93%	6.11%	3.63%	2.41%	1.47%	0.31%
Dumbarton	1.79%	5.37%	8.56%	11.72%	12.68%	13.75%	14.25%	14.65%	12.68%	4.55%
St. Mirren	2.75%	8.29%	11.27%	13.41%	14.03%	13.74%	13.15%	11.61%	8.57%	3.18%
Third Lanark	1.64%	5.12%	9.03%	10.35%	13.03%	13.66%	14.00%	14.71%	13.42%	5.04%
Dundee	1.50%	5.44%	8.68%	10.13%	12.19%	13.13%	14.94%	14.61%	14.19%	5.19%
Leith Athletic	0.73%	2.95%	5.36%	8.20%	9.82%	12.40%	14.71%	17.87%	19.59%	8.37%
Renton	—	0.10%	0.19%	0.58%	0.97%	2.10%	3.81%	6.52%	16.94%	68.79%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+6.67%

Slight Edge

45.56%15.56%38.89%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 23.20 Elo pts.

140 Elo

0.007 goals per Elo point

0400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.50 goals

Home-Tilted

-2+0.17+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.1

Top-Heavy

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

66%

Celtic, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.17/gm

Tight Race

00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.92 * Some Luck: 2.92 to 4.39 * Lucky: 4.39 to 5.85 * Wild Swing: 5.85 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.44 * Close: 1.44 to 2.16 * Off: 2.16 to 2.89 * Way Off: 2.89 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.26 points

Some Luck

03.669

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.20

Pinpoint

01.804

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

99.12%

Heart of Midlothian

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

3.66%

Renton

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.22

Top-Heavy

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.73

Strong Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

65%

Slight Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

89%

Strong Edge

50%87%100%

Close Games

Expected

46%

Frequent

0%45%100%

Blowouts

Expected

28%

Very Frequent

0%32%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.55

Highly Predictable

00.582

Matchup Imbalance

0.30

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.38

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.51

Some Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

29%

As Expected

0%29%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

24%

As Expected

0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.

Probability calibration

0.52

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.17

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.107

Well Within Noise

00.1730.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Celtic	99.98%	0.02%
Rangers	99.69%	0.31%
St. Bernards	99.07%	0.93%
St. Mirren	96.82%	3.18%
Heart of Midlothian	96.38%	3.62%
Dumbarton	95.45%	4.55%
Third Lanark	94.96%	5.04%
Dundee	94.81%	5.19%
Leith Athletic	91.63%	8.37%
Renton	31.21%	68.79%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1893-08-12	Third Lanark	W 5-0	1703	1585	61.2%	16.3%	22.5%	+24.2	2
1893-08-12	@ Celtic	L 0-5	1585	1703	22.5%	16.3%	61.2%	-24.2	0
1893-08-12	Rangers	D 3-3	1589	1622	42.0%	16.5%	41.5%	-0.0	1
1893-08-12	@ Dundee	D 3-3	1622	1589	41.5%	16.5%	42.0%	+0.0	1
1893-08-19	Celtic	L 1-4	1589	1727	28.0%	16.4%	55.6%	-15.3	1
1893-08-19	@ Dundee	W 4-1	1727	1589	55.6%	16.4%	28.0%	+15.4	4
1893-08-19	Leith Athletic	L 0-2	1535	1565	42.4%	16.5%	41.0%	-17.9	0
1893-08-19	@ Heart of Midlothian	W 2-0	1565	1535	41.0%	16.5%	42.4%	+17.9	2
1893-08-23	Leith Athletic	W 4-1	1743	1583	65.3%	16.2%	18.6%	+10.6	6
1893-08-23	@ Celtic	L 1-4	1583	1743	18.6%	16.2%	65.3%	-10.6	2
1893-08-23	Renton	W 5-3	1622	1464	65.1%	16.2%	18.7%	+6.4	3
1893-08-23	@ Rangers	L 3-5	1464	1622	18.7%	16.2%	65.1%	-6.4	0
1893-08-23	St. Bernards	W 5-3	1561	1589	42.7%	16.5%	40.8%	+12.7	2
1893-08-23	@ Third Lanark	L 3-5	1589	1561	40.8%	16.5%	42.7%	-12.7	0
1893-08-26	Dumbarton	D 0-0	1753	1588	65.8%	16.1%	18.1%	-2.8	7
1893-08-26	@ Celtic	D 0-0	1588	1753	18.1%	16.1%	65.8%	+2.8	1
1893-08-26	Dundee	L 2-3	1457	1574	30.7%	16.4%	52.9%	-6.4	0
1893-08-26	@ Renton	W 3-2	1574	1457	52.9%	16.4%	30.7%	+6.4	3
1893-08-26	Rangers	D 0-0	1576	1629	39.2%	16.5%	44.3%	+0.3	1
1893-08-26	@ St. Bernards	D 0-0	1629	1576	44.3%	16.5%	39.2%	-0.3	4
1893-08-26	Heart of Midlothian	L 2-3	1540	1517	49.7%	16.5%	33.8%	-9.7	0
1893-08-26	@ St. Mirren	W 3-2	1517	1540	33.8%	16.5%	49.7%	+9.7	2
1893-08-26	Leith Athletic	W 2-1	1573	1572	46.8%	16.5%	36.7%	+7.9	4
1893-08-26	@ Third Lanark	L 1-2	1572	1573	36.7%	16.5%	46.8%	-7.9	2
1893-09-02	St. Bernards	L 1-5	1590	1577	48.5%	16.5%	35.0%	-31.8	1
1893-09-02	@ Dumbarton	W 5-1	1577	1590	35.0%	16.5%	48.5%	+31.8	3
1893-09-02	St. Mirren	L 2-5	1564	1530	51.2%	16.5%	32.3%	-22.4	2
1893-09-02	@ Leith Athletic	W 5-2	1530	1564	32.3%	16.5%	51.2%	+22.4	2
1893-09-02	Celtic	W 5-0	1628	1751	30.0%	16.4%	53.6%	+51.4	6
1893-09-02	@ Rangers	L 0-5	1751	1628	53.6%	16.4%	30.0%	-51.4	7
1893-09-02	Heart of Midlothian	L 1-3	1581	1527	53.8%	16.4%	29.7%	-19.1	4
1893-09-02	@ Third Lanark	W 3-1	1527	1581	29.7%	16.4%	53.8%	+19.1	4
1893-09-09	Celtic	L 2-4	1546	1699	26.3%	16.3%	57.4%	-9.2	4
1893-09-09	@ Heart of Midlothian	W 4-2	1699	1546	57.4%	16.3%	26.3%	+9.2	9
1893-09-09	Dundee	L 3-5	1542	1580	41.2%	16.5%	42.3%	-12.8	2
1893-09-09	@ Leith Athletic	W 5-3	1580	1542	42.3%	16.5%	41.2%	+12.8	5
1893-09-09	Rangers	L 1-2	1451	1680	18.6%	16.1%	65.3%	-4.3	0
1893-09-09	@ Renton	W 2-1	1680	1451	65.3%	16.1%	18.6%	+4.3	8
1893-09-09	St. Bernards	L 1-3	1552	1608	38.7%	16.5%	44.8%	-14.3	2
1893-09-09	@ St. Mirren	W 3-1	1608	1552	44.8%	16.5%	38.7%	+14.3	5
1893-09-09	Dumbarton	L 1-3	1562	1559	47.1%	16.5%	36.4%	-17.0	4
1893-09-09	@ Third Lanark	W 3-1	1559	1562	36.4%	16.5%	47.1%	+17.0	3
1893-09-16	Dundee	D 1-1	1576	1593	44.2%	16.5%	39.2%	-0.2	4
1893-09-16	@ Dumbarton	D 1-1	1593	1576	39.2%	16.5%	44.2%	+0.2	6
1893-09-16	Renton	W 4-2	1538	1446	58.2%	16.4%	25.4%	+8.9	4
1893-09-16	@ St. Mirren	L 2-4	1446	1538	25.4%	16.4%	58.2%	-8.9	0
1893-09-18	St. Bernards	W 4-2	1529	1623	33.6%	16.4%	50.0%	+16.0	4
1893-09-18	@ Leith Athletic	L 2-4	1623	1529	50.0%	16.4%	33.6%	-16.0	5
1893-09-23	St. Mirren	L 0-3	1593	1547	52.8%	16.4%	30.7%	-31.5	6
1893-09-23	@ Dundee	W 3-0	1547	1593	30.7%	16.4%	52.8%	+31.5	6
1893-09-23	Third Lanark	D 2-2	1537	1545	45.5%	16.5%	38.0%	-0.3	5
1893-09-23	@ Heart of Midlothian	D 2-2	1545	1537	38.0%	16.5%	45.5%	+0.3	5
1893-09-23	Dumbarton	W 4-0	1684	1575	60.2%	16.3%	23.5%	+20.4	10
1893-09-23	@ Rangers	L 0-4	1575	1684	23.5%	16.3%	60.2%	-20.4	4
1893-09-23	Renton	W 4-2	1607	1437	66.1%	16.1%	17.8%	+6.5	7
1893-09-23	@ St. Bernards	L 2-4	1437	1607	17.8%	16.1%	66.1%	-6.4	0
1893-09-30	Heart of Midlothian	D 2-2	1555	1536	49.2%	16.5%	34.3%	-0.5	5
1893-09-30	@ Dumbarton	D 2-2	1536	1555	34.3%	16.5%	49.2%	+0.5	6
1893-09-30	St. Bernards	L 1-3	1562	1613	39.4%	16.5%	44.1%	-14.5	6
1893-09-30	@ Dundee	W 3-1	1613	1562	44.1%	16.5%	39.4%	+14.5	9
1893-09-30	Rangers	D 2-2	1545	1705	25.6%	16.3%	58.1%	+1.2	5
1893-09-30	@ Leith Athletic	D 2-2	1705	1545	58.1%	16.3%	25.6%	-1.2	11
1893-09-30	Celtic	L 1-2	1578	1708	29.0%	16.4%	54.6%	-6.5	6
1893-09-30	@ St. Mirren	W 2-1	1708	1578	54.6%	16.4%	29.0%	+6.5	11
1893-09-30	Renton	D 3-3	1545	1431	60.8%	16.3%	22.9%	-1.2	6
1893-09-30	@ Third Lanark	D 3-3	1431	1545	22.9%	16.3%	60.8%	+1.2	1
1893-10-07	Dumbarton	D 1-1	1432	1554	30.0%	16.4%	53.6%	+1.2	2
1893-10-07	@ Renton	D 1-1	1554	1432	53.6%	16.4%	30.0%	-1.2	6
1893-10-07	Heart of Midlothian	L 1-2	1628	1537	58.2%	16.4%	25.5%	-11.9	9
1893-10-07	@ St. Bernards	W 2-1	1537	1628	25.5%	16.4%	58.2%	+11.9	8
1893-10-14	St. Bernards	W 5-2	1715	1616	59.1%	16.4%	24.6%	+11.8	13
1893-10-14	@ Celtic	L 2-5	1616	1715	24.6%	16.4%	59.1%	-11.9	9
1893-10-14	Rangers	W 4-2	1549	1703	26.1%	16.3%	57.5%	+18.2	10
1893-10-14	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 2-4	1703	1549	57.5%	16.3%	26.1%	-18.2	11
1893-10-14	Leith Athletic	W 3-1	1572	1546	50.1%	16.5%	33.4%	+12.7	8
1893-10-14	@ St. Mirren	L 1-3	1546	1572	33.4%	16.5%	50.1%	-12.6	5
1893-10-14	Dundee	W 4-3	1544	1547	46.2%	16.5%	37.2%	+7.4	8
1893-10-14	@ Third Lanark	L 3-4	1547	1544	37.2%	16.5%	46.2%	-7.4	6
1893-10-21	St. Mirren	D 3-3	1553	1585	42.3%	16.5%	41.2%	-0.0	7
1893-10-21	@ Dumbarton	D 3-3	1585	1553	41.2%	16.5%	42.3%	+0.0	9
1893-10-21	Heart of Midlothian	L 2-5	1540	1567	42.8%	16.5%	40.7%	-19.1	6
1893-10-21	@ Dundee	W 5-2	1567	1540	40.7%	16.5%	42.8%	+19.1	12
1893-10-21	Renton	W 2-1	1533	1433	59.2%	16.4%	24.4%	+5.6	7
1893-10-21	@ Leith Athletic	L 1-2	1433	1533	24.4%	16.4%	59.2%	-5.6	2
1893-10-21	Third Lanark	W 6-2	1604	1552	53.6%	16.4%	30.0%	+17.9	11
1893-10-21	@ St. Bernards	L 2-6	1552	1604	30.0%	16.4%	53.6%	-17.8	8
1893-10-28	Dumbarton	L 2-4	1539	1553	44.7%	16.5%	38.8%	-14.5	7
1893-10-28	@ Leith Athletic	W 4-2	1553	1539	38.8%	16.5%	44.7%	+14.5	9
1893-10-28	St. Bernards	L 0-1	1428	1622	21.9%	16.2%	61.9%	-5.3	2
1893-10-28	@ Renton	W 1-0	1622	1428	61.9%	16.2%	21.9%	+5.3	13
1893-11-04	Dundee	W 3-1	1727	1521	69.1%	16.0%	14.9%	+6.1	15
1893-11-04	@ Celtic	L 1-3	1521	1727	14.9%	16.0%	69.1%	-6.1	6
1893-11-04	Leith Athletic	W 1-0	1685	1525	65.3%	16.2%	18.5%	+4.6	13
1893-11-04	@ Rangers	L 0-1	1525	1685	18.5%	16.2%	65.3%	-4.6	7
1893-11-04	Heart of Midlothian	L 2-3	1422	1586	25.1%	16.3%	58.6%	-5.4	2
1893-11-04	@ Renton	W 3-2	1586	1422	58.6%	16.3%	25.1%	+5.4	14
1893-11-04	Dumbarton	W 2-1	1627	1568	54.5%	16.4%	29.1%	+6.5	15
1893-11-04	@ St. Bernards	L 1-2	1568	1627	29.1%	16.4%	54.5%	-6.5	9
1893-11-04	Third Lanark	W 4-2	1585	1534	53.4%	16.4%	30.2%	+10.4	11
1893-11-04	@ St. Mirren	L 2-4	1534	1585	30.2%	16.4%	53.4%	-10.4	8
1893-11-11	Leith Athletic	W 4-3	1514	1520	45.9%	16.5%	37.6%	+7.5	8
1893-11-11	@ Dundee	L 3-4	1520	1514	37.6%	16.5%	45.9%	-7.5	7
1893-11-11	Celtic	L 0-3	1417	1733	12.2%	15.7%	72.1%	-8.5	2
1893-11-11	@ Renton	W 3-0	1733	1417	72.1%	15.7%	12.2%	+8.5	17
1893-11-11	Dumbarton	L 1-2	1595	1561	51.2%	16.5%	32.4%	-10.5	11
1893-11-11	@ St. Mirren	W 2-1	1561	1595	32.4%	16.5%	51.2%	+10.5	11
1893-11-11	Rangers	L 1-2	1523	1690	24.8%	16.3%	58.9%	-5.6	8
1893-11-11	@ Third Lanark	W 2-1	1690	1523	58.9%	16.3%	24.8%	+5.6	15
1893-11-18	Renton	W 2-0	1572	1409	65.5%	16.2%	18.3%	+8.6	13
1893-11-18	@ Dumbarton	L 0-2	1409	1572	18.3%	16.2%	65.5%	-8.5	2
1893-11-18	St. Mirren	D 1-1	1591	1584	47.6%	16.5%	35.9%	-0.6	15
1893-11-18	@ Heart of Midlothian	D 1-1	1584	1591	35.9%	16.5%	47.6%	+0.6	12
1893-12-02	Renton	W 3-2	1741	1400	77.3%	15.2%	7.5%	+1.7	19
1893-12-02	@ Celtic	L 2-3	1400	1741	7.5%	15.2%	77.3%	-1.7	2
1893-12-02	Heart of Midlothian	D 2-2	1512	1591	35.6%	16.5%	47.9%	+0.5	8
1893-12-02	@ Leith Athletic	D 2-2	1591	1512	47.9%	16.5%	35.6%	-0.5	16
1893-12-09	Dumbarton	W 4-0	1522	1580	38.4%	16.5%	45.1%	+35.7	10
1893-12-09	@ Dundee	L 0-4	1580	1522	45.1%	16.5%	38.4%	-35.8	13
1893-12-09	St. Mirren	L 0-4	1398	1585	22.7%	16.2%	61.1%	-19.7	2
1893-12-09	@ Renton	W 4-0	1585	1398	61.1%	16.2%	22.7%	+19.7	14
1893-12-16	Dundee	W 3-0	1590	1558	51.1%	16.5%	32.5%	+20.7	18
1893-12-16	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-3	1558	1590	32.5%	16.5%	51.1%	-20.7	10
1893-12-23	Celtic	L 4-5	1545	1743	21.5%	16.2%	62.3%	-4.5	13
1893-12-23	@ Dumbarton	W 5-4	1743	1545	62.3%	16.2%	21.5%	+4.5	21
1893-12-23	Third Lanark	L 0-3	1695	1518	66.8%	16.1%	17.1%	-39.6	15
1893-12-23	@ Rangers	W 3-0	1518	1695	17.1%	16.1%	66.8%	+39.6	10
1893-12-30	Celtic	L 1-3	1557	1747	22.3%	16.2%	61.4%	-8.9	10
1893-12-30	@ Third Lanark	W 3-1	1747	1557	61.4%	16.2%	22.3%	+8.9	23
1894-01-20	Rangers	W 2-0	1540	1656	30.8%	16.4%	52.8%	+21.7	15
1894-01-20	@ Dumbarton	L 0-2	1656	1540	52.8%	16.4%	30.8%	-21.7	15
1894-01-20	Celtic	L 1-2	1634	1756	29.9%	16.4%	53.7%	-6.6	15
1894-01-20	@ St. Bernards	W 2-1	1756	1634	53.7%	16.4%	29.9%	+6.6	25
1894-01-20	St. Mirren	W 3-1	1548	1605	38.7%	16.5%	44.8%	+16.2	12
1894-01-20	@ Third Lanark	L 1-3	1605	1548	44.8%	16.5%	38.7%	-16.2	14
1894-01-27	Third Lanark	L 0-3	1379	1565	22.8%	16.2%	61.0%	-15.1	2
1894-01-27	@ Renton	W 3-0	1565	1379	61.0%	16.2%	22.8%	+15.1	14
1894-01-27	Dundee	L 3-5	1627	1537	58.1%	16.4%	25.6%	-17.4	15
1894-01-27	@ St. Bernards	W 5-3	1537	1627	25.6%	16.4%	58.1%	+17.4	12
1894-01-27	Rangers	D 2-2	1588	1634	40.2%	16.5%	43.3%	+0.1	15
1894-01-27	@ St. Mirren	D 2-2	1634	1588	43.3%	16.5%	40.2%	-0.1	16
1894-02-03	Leith Athletic	W 3-1	1562	1513	53.1%	16.4%	30.4%	+11.7	17
1894-02-03	@ Dumbarton	L 1-3	1513	1562	30.4%	16.4%	53.1%	-11.7	8
1894-02-10	St. Mirren	W 5-1	1763	1589	66.5%	16.1%	17.3%	+12.9	27
1894-02-10	@ Celtic	L 1-5	1589	1763	17.3%	16.1%	66.5%	-12.9	15
1894-02-10	Renton	W 8-1	1554	1363	67.9%	16.0%	16.0%	+20.0	14
1894-02-10	@ Dundee	L 1-8	1363	1554	16.0%	16.0%	67.9%	-20.0	2
1894-02-17	Leith Athletic	W 2-1	1343	1501	25.8%	16.3%	57.9%	+11.8	4
1894-02-17	@ Renton	L 1-2	1501	1343	57.9%	16.3%	25.8%	-11.8	8
1894-02-17	Dundee	W 10-3	1576	1574	46.8%	16.5%	36.7%	+30.6	17
1894-02-17	@ St. Mirren	L 3-10	1574	1576	36.7%	16.5%	46.8%	-30.6	14
1894-02-24	Rangers	W 3-2	1776	1634	63.5%	16.2%	20.2%	+4.5	29
1894-02-24	@ Celtic	L 2-3	1634	1776	20.2%	16.2%	63.5%	-4.4	16
1894-02-24	Third Lanark	D 1-1	1544	1580	41.6%	16.5%	41.9%	+0.0	15
1894-02-24	@ Dundee	D 1-1	1580	1544	41.9%	16.5%	41.6%	-0.0	15
1894-03-03	Renton	W 5-1	1611	1355	72.7%	15.7%	11.6%	+8.8	20
1894-03-03	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-5	1355	1611	11.6%	15.7%	72.7%	-8.8	4
1894-03-10	Heart of Midlothian	L 2-3	1780	1620	65.3%	16.2%	18.6%	-12.6	29
1894-03-10	@ Celtic	W 3-2	1620	1780	18.6%	16.2%	65.3%	+12.6	22
1894-03-10	Dundee	W 7-2	1630	1544	57.6%	16.4%	26.0%	+19.0	18
1894-03-10	@ Rangers	L 2-7	1544	1630	26.0%	16.4%	57.6%	-19.0	15
1894-03-10	Leith Athletic	W 3-2	1610	1489	61.4%	16.3%	22.3%	+4.9	17
1894-03-10	@ St. Bernards	L 2-3	1489	1610	22.3%	16.3%	61.4%	-4.9	8
1894-03-17	Third Lanark	W 2-1	1573	1580	45.8%	16.5%	37.7%	+8.1	19
1894-03-17	@ Dumbarton	L 1-2	1580	1573	37.7%	16.5%	45.8%	-8.1	15
1894-03-17	Celtic	W 5-0	1485	1768	14.4%	15.8%	69.8%	+66.6	10
1894-03-17	@ Leith Athletic	L 0-5	1768	1485	69.8%	15.8%	14.4%	-66.6	29
1894-03-31	St. Mirren	W 8-3	1615	1606	47.8%	16.5%	35.7%	+22.6	19
1894-03-31	@ St. Bernards	L 3-8	1606	1615	35.7%	16.5%	47.8%	-22.6	17
1894-04-07	St. Bernards	L 2-4	1633	1637	46.0%	16.5%	37.5%	-14.8	22
1894-04-07	@ Heart of Midlothian	W 4-2	1637	1633	37.5%	16.5%	46.0%	+14.8	21
1894-04-14	Third Lanark	L 2-3	1551	1572	43.8%	16.5%	39.7%	-8.7	10
1894-04-14	@ Leith Athletic	W 3-2	1572	1551	39.7%	16.5%	43.8%	+8.7	17
1894-04-14	Heart of Midlothian	L 1-2	1649	1618	50.8%	16.5%	32.7%	-10.5	18
1894-04-14	@ Rangers	W 2-1	1618	1649	32.7%	16.5%	50.8%	+10.5	24
1894-04-21	St. Mirren	W 5-0	1638	1584	53.8%	16.4%	29.7%	+30.9	20
1894-04-21	@ Rangers	L 0-5	1584	1638	29.7%	16.4%	53.8%	-30.9	17
1894-04-28	Dumbarton	W 2-1	1628	1582	52.8%	16.4%	30.7%	+6.8	26
1894-04-28	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-2	1582	1628	30.7%	16.4%	52.8%	-6.8	19
1894-05-02	St. Bernards	L 1-2	1669	1652	49.0%	16.5%	34.5%	-10.1	20
1894-05-02	@ Rangers	W 2-1	1652	1669	34.5%	16.5%	49.0%	+10.1	23

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1894-03-17	14.39%	@ Leith Athletic	1485	5	Celtic	1768	0
2	1893-12-23	17.09%	Third Lanark	1518	3	@ Rangers	1695	0
3	1894-03-10	18.56%	Heart of Midlothian	1620	3	@ Celtic	1780	2
4	1893-10-07	25.46%	Heart of Midlothian	1537	2	@ St. Bernards	1628	1
5	1894-01-27	25.55%	Dundee	1537	5	@ St. Bernards	1627	3
6	1894-02-17	25.79%	@ Renton	1343	2	Leith Athletic	1501	1
7	1893-10-14	26.14%	@ Heart of Midlothian	1549	4	Rangers	1703	2
8	1893-09-02	29.72%	Heart of Midlothian	1527	3	@ Third Lanark	1581	1
9	1893-09-02	30.00%	@ Rangers	1628	5	Celtic	1751	0
10	1893-09-23	30.74%	St. Mirren	1547	3	@ Dundee	1593	0
11	1894-01-20	30.79%	@ Dumbarton	1540	2	Rangers	1656	0
12	1893-09-02	32.28%	St. Mirren	1530	5	@ Leith Athletic	1564	2
13	1893-11-11	32.35%	Dumbarton	1561	2	@ St. Mirren	1595	1
14	1894-04-14	32.72%	Heart of Midlothian	1618	2	@ Rangers	1649	1
15	1893-09-18	33.59%	@ Leith Athletic	1529	4	St. Bernards	1623	2
16	1893-08-26	33.78%	Heart of Midlothian	1517	3	@ St. Mirren	1540	2
17	1894-05-02	34.55%	St. Bernards	1652	2	@ Rangers	1669	1
18	1893-09-02	34.96%	St. Bernards	1577	5	@ Dumbarton	1590	1
19	1893-09-09	36.39%	Dumbarton	1559	3	@ Third Lanark	1562	1
20	1894-04-07	37.49%	St. Bernards	1637	4	@ Heart of Midlothian	1633	2
21	1893-12-09	38.40%	@ Dundee	1522	4	Dumbarton	1580	0
22	1894-01-20	38.71%	@ Third Lanark	1548	3	St. Mirren	1605	1
23	1893-10-28	38.82%	Dumbarton	1553	4	@ Leith Athletic	1539	2
24	1894-04-14	39.71%	Third Lanark	1572	3	@ Leith Athletic	1551	2
25	1893-10-21	40.67%	Heart of Midlothian	1567	5	@ Dundee	1540	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1894-03-17	66.57	@ Leith Athletic	5	1485	14.39%	Celtic	0	1768	69.78%	15.83%
2	1893-09-02	51.41	@ Rangers	5	1628	30.00%	Celtic	0	1751	53.60%	16.40%
3	1893-12-23	39.60	Third Lanark	3	1518	17.09%	@ Rangers	0	1695	66.82%	16.10%
4	1893-12-09	35.75	@ Dundee	4	1522	38.40%	Dumbarton	0	1580	45.11%	16.49%
5	1893-09-02	31.78	St. Bernards	5	1577	34.96%	@ Dumbarton	1	1590	48.55%	16.48%
6	1893-09-23	31.51	St. Mirren	3	1547	30.74%	@ Dundee	0	1593	52.81%	16.45%
7	1894-04-21	30.89	@ Rangers	5	1638	53.83%	St. Mirren	0	1584	29.73%	16.44%
8	1894-02-17	30.63	@ St. Mirren	10	1576	46.84%	Dundee	3	1574	36.66%	16.49%
9	1893-08-12	24.16	@ Celtic	5	1703	61.18%	Third Lanark	0	1585	22.52%	16.30%
10	1894-03-31	22.65	@ St. Bernards	8	1615	47.80%	St. Mirren	3	1606	35.71%	16.49%
11	1893-09-02	22.38	St. Mirren	5	1530	32.28%	@ Leith Athletic	2	1564	51.25%	16.47%
12	1894-01-20	21.68	@ Dumbarton	2	1540	30.79%	Rangers	0	1656	52.80%	16.41%
13	1893-12-16	20.70	@ Heart of Midlothian	3	1590	51.06%	Dundee	0	1558	32.47%	16.47%
14	1893-09-23	20.38	@ Rangers	4	1684	60.15%	Dumbarton	0	1575	23.52%	16.32%
15	1894-02-10	20.01	@ Dundee	8	1554	67.93%	Renton	1	1363	16.03%	16.04%
16	1893-12-09	19.72	St. Mirren	4	1585	61.07%	@ Renton	0	1398	22.70%	16.23%
17	1893-09-02	19.13	Heart of Midlothian	3	1527	29.72%	@ Third Lanark	1	1581	53.84%	16.44%
18	1893-10-21	19.12	Heart of Midlothian	5	1567	40.67%	@ Dundee	2	1540	42.83%	16.50%
19	1894-03-10	19.05	@ Rangers	7	1630	57.59%	Dundee	2	1544	26.03%	16.38%
20	1893-10-14	18.20	@ Heart of Midlothian	4	1549	26.14%	Rangers	2	1703	57.53%	16.33%
21	1893-08-19	17.89	Leith Athletic	2	1565	41.05%	@ Heart of Midlothian	0	1535	42.45%	16.50%
22	1893-10-21	17.85	@ St. Bernards	6	1604	53.59%	Third Lanark	2	1552	29.97%	16.44%
23	1894-01-27	17.37	Dundee	5	1537	25.55%	@ St. Bernards	3	1627	58.08%	16.37%
24	1893-09-09	16.95	Dumbarton	3	1559	36.39%	@ Third Lanark	1	1562	47.12%	16.49%
25	1894-01-20	16.22	@ Third Lanark	3	1548	38.71%	St. Mirren	1	1605	44.80%	16.49%