1892-93 Division One Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Celtic

29 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Rangers

8.47 points above expected

28 points · 19.53 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Clyde

10.30 points below expected

6 points · 16.30 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Celtic	18	14	1	3	29	54	25	+29	20.6	+8.39
2	Rangers	18	12	4	2	28	41	27	+14	19.5	+8.47
3	St. Mirren	18	9	2	7	20	40	39	+1	16.8	+3.23
4	Third Lanark	18	9	1	8	19	53	39	+14	17.7	+1.27
5	Heart of Midlothian	18	8	2	8	18	39	41	-2	19.0	-0.99
6	Leith Athletic	18	8	1	9	17	35	31	+4	18.1	-1.10
7	Dumbarton	18	8	1	9	17	35	35	0	19.0	-2.03
8	Renton	18	5	5	8	15	31	44	-13	17.4	-2.40
9	Abercorn	18	5	1	12	11	35	52	-17	15.6	-4.56
10	Clyde	18	2	2	14	6	25	55	-30	16.3	-10.30

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Celtic	1588	29	20.61	+8.39	99.5%	8	14	18	21	23	27	34
Rangers	1543	28	19.53	+8.47	99.4%	5	13	17	20	22	26	33
Dumbarton	1527	17	19.03	-2.03	34.0%	5	13	16	19	22	25	32
Leith Athletic	1507	17	18.10	-1.10	44.2%	4	12	15	18	21	24	33
Heart of Midlothian	1506	18	18.99	-0.99	44.9%	5	13	17	19	22	25	32
Third Lanark	1502	19	17.73	+1.27	68.5%	5	12	15	18	20	24	32
St. Mirren	1480	20	16.77	+3.23	83.7%	4	11	14	17	19	23	31
Renton	1462	15	17.40	-2.40	30.7%	3	11	15	17	20	23	31
Abercorn	1453	11	15.56	-4.56	14.0%	3	9	13	16	18	22	28
Clyde	1438	6	16.30	-10.30	0.4%	3	10	14	16	19	22	31

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ABE	CEL	CLY	DUM	HOM	LA	RAN	REN	SM	TL
Abercorn	—	1-0-1 2.19	1-0-1 2.68	1-0-1 2.30	0-0-2 2.42	1-1-0 2.48	0-0-2 2.49	0-0-2 2.54	0-0-2 2.68	1-0-1 2.57
Celtic	1-0-1 3.58	—	2-0-0 3.68	2-0-0 3.04	1-0-1 3.00	2-0-0 3.33	1-1-0 3.01	2-0-0 3.30	2-0-0 3.45	1-0-1 3.43
Clyde	1-0-1 3.08	0-0-2 2.08	—	0-0-2 2.43	1-0-1 2.45	0-0-2 2.60	0-0-2 2.34	0-2-0 2.67	0-0-2 2.89	0-0-2 2.75
Dumbarton	1-0-1 3.46	0-0-2 2.73	2-0-0 3.34	—	2-0-0 2.83	1-0-1 2.99	1-0-1 2.77	1-1-0 3.09	0-0-2 3.26	0-0-2 3.07
Heart of Midlothian	2-0-0 3.35	1-0-1 2.76	1-0-1 3.32	0-0-2 2.93	—	2-0-0 2.94	0-0-2 2.67	0-1-1 3.18	1-0-1 3.20	1-1-0 3.01
Leith Athletic	0-1-1 3.28	0-0-2 2.44	2-0-0 3.16	1-0-1 2.78	0-0-2 2.82	—	0-0-2 2.73	2-0-0 2.96	1-0-1 3.11	2-0-0 2.82
Rangers	2-0-0 3.27	0-1-1 2.75	2-0-0 3.42	1-0-1 2.99	2-0-0 3.10	2-0-0 3.04	—	1-1-0 3.28	0-2-0 3.28	2-0-0 3.12
Renton	2-0-0 3.22	0-0-2 2.46	0-2-0 3.09	0-1-1 2.67	1-1-0 2.58	0-0-2 2.81	0-1-1 2.48	—	1-0-1 2.99	1-0-1 2.75
St. Mirren	2-0-0 3.08	0-0-2 2.32	2-0-0 2.87	2-0-0 2.51	1-0-1 2.57	1-0-1 2.65	0-2-0 2.49	1-0-1 2.78	—	0-0-2 2.89
Third Lanark	1-0-1 3.20	1-0-1 2.34	2-0-0 3.02	2-0-0 2.70	0-1-1 2.75	0-0-2 2.94	0-0-2 2.64	1-0-1 3.01	2-0-0 2.88	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	1.11%	1.11%	1.11%	4.44%	2.78%	1.67%	12.22%
1	1.11%	3.33%	8.89%	6.11%	3.89%	3.89%	27.22%
2	1.11%	8.89%	6.67%	4.44%	1.67%	2.78%	25.56%
3	4.44%	6.11%	4.44%	—	1.67%	—	16.67%
4	2.78%	3.89%	1.67%	1.67%	—	—	10.00%
5+	1.67%	3.89%	2.78%	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	12.22%	27.22%	25.56%	16.67%	10.00%	8.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.16
Mean allowed	2.16
StdDev scored	1.59
StdDev allowed	1.59
Mean total goals/game	4.31
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.407
Sample size (games)	90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%
1	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	—	5.56%	38.89%
2	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%
3	—	—	—	—	11.11%	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	11.11%	11.11%	27.78%	11.11%	22.22%	16.67%	100%

Abercorn — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.94
Mean allowed	2.89
StdDev scored	1.66
StdDev allowed	2.00
Mean total goals/game	4.83
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.410
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
3	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	33.33%
4	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	33.33%	33.33%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Celtic — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.00
Mean allowed	1.39
StdDev scored	1.37
StdDev allowed	1.50
Mean total goals/game	4.39
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.343
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	11.11%	—	—	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	22.22%	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	61.11%
2	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	—	5.56%	38.89%	27.78%	16.67%	11.11%	100%

Clyde — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.39
Mean allowed	3.06
StdDev scored	1.14
StdDev allowed	1.59
Mean total goals/game	4.44
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.207
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	22.22%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
2	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	11.11%	38.89%	11.11%	27.78%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Dumbarton — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.94
Mean allowed	1.94
StdDev scored	1.63
StdDev allowed	1.39
Mean total goals/game	3.89
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.677
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
1	—	—	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	33.33%
2	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	27.78%	27.78%	22.22%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Heart of Midlothian — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.17
Mean allowed	2.28
StdDev scored	1.25
StdDev allowed	1.41
Mean total goals/game	4.44
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.732
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	—	38.89%
2	—	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
3	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	11.11%	38.89%	22.22%	22.22%	5.56%	—	100%

Leith Athletic — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.94
Mean allowed	1.72
StdDev scored	1.59
StdDev allowed	1.13
Mean total goals/game	3.67
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.239
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2	5.56%	22.22%	16.67%	—	—	—	44.44%
3	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	22.22%	38.89%	16.67%	—	—	100%

Rangers — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.28
Mean allowed	1.50
StdDev scored	1.32
StdDev allowed	1.04
Mean total goals/game	3.78
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.064
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	22.22%
1	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
2	—	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	—	11.11%	44.44%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	33.33%	33.33%	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Renton — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.72
Mean allowed	2.44
StdDev scored	1.18
StdDev allowed	1.62
Mean total goals/game	4.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.086
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
1	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	27.78%
2	—	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	33.33%	11.11%	11.11%	16.67%	11.11%	100%

St. Mirren — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.22
Mean allowed	2.17
StdDev scored	1.86
StdDev allowed	1.82
Mean total goals/game	4.39
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.479
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
1	—	—	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
Total	11.11%	27.78%	33.33%	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Third Lanark — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.94
Mean allowed	2.17
StdDev scored	2.21
StdDev allowed	1.65
Mean total goals/game	5.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.609
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Rangers	28	19.5	+8.47
2	Celtic	29	20.6	+8.39
3	St. Mirren	20	16.8	+3.23
4	Third Lanark	19	17.7	+1.27
5	Heart of Midlothian	18	19.0	-0.99

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Clyde	6	16.3	-10.30
2	Abercorn	11	15.6	-4.56
3	Renton	15	17.4	-2.40
4	Dumbarton	17	19.0	-2.03
5	Leith Athletic	17	18.1	-1.10

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Celtic	7	Mar 18 – May 9	1 in 74
2	St. Mirren	5	Feb 4 – Mar 11	1 in 56
3	Rangers	4	Aug 20 – Sep 10	1 in 27
4	Leith Athletic	4	Oct 8 – Nov 19	1 in 16
5	Heart of Midlothian	3	Aug 20 – Sep 3	1 in 15

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Clyde	8	Oct 1 – Mar 11	1 in 414
2	Leith Athletic	5	Aug 27 – Oct 1	1 in 50
3	Abercorn	5	Aug 20 – Sep 17	1 in 34
4	Third Lanark	4	Feb 4 – Apr 22	1 in 28
5	Renton	4	Mar 25 – May 20	1 in 19

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Rangers	15	Aug 20 – Apr 15	1 in 2,237
2	Celtic	7	Sep 10 – Jan 28	1 in 61
3	Heart of Midlothian	6	Aug 20 – Sep 24	1 in 28
4	St. Mirren	6	Feb 4 – Mar 25	1 in 26
5	Renton	4	Sep 3 – Oct 1	1 in 14

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Clyde	14	Sep 3 – Apr 22	1 in 1,948
2	Renton	7	Mar 4 – May 20	1 in 42
3	Leith Athletic	5	Aug 27 – Oct 1	1 in 15
4	Abercorn	5	Aug 20 – Sep 17	1 in 11
5	Heart of Midlothian	3	Apr 29 – May 6	1 in 11

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Celtic	27.20%	18.74%	13.94%	10.51%	8.53%	6.87%	5.19%	4.16%	3.15%	1.71%
Rangers	17.30%	15.15%	13.52%	12.12%	10.58%	9.07%	7.25%	6.41%	5.25%	3.35%
St. Mirren	4.65%	6.57%	7.49%	8.74%	9.82%	10.53%	12.51%	12.64%	13.41%	13.64%
Third Lanark	8.13%	9.67%	10.24%	11.02%	11.05%	11.16%	10.65%	10.21%	9.78%	8.09%
Heart of Midlothian	11.86%	12.10%	12.12%	12.08%	11.13%	10.81%	9.44%	8.81%	6.74%	4.91%
Leith Athletic	8.75%	9.96%	10.83%	11.36%	10.94%	10.96%	10.79%	9.82%	9.38%	7.21%
Dumbarton	12.07%	13.09%	12.59%	11.91%	11.25%	9.88%	9.33%	8.36%	6.88%	4.64%
Renton	5.11%	7.12%	8.79%	9.47%	10.70%	11.34%	11.57%	12.25%	12.09%	11.56%
Abercorn	2.01%	3.43%	4.59%	5.81%	7.57%	9.22%	11.35%	13.84%	17.49%	24.69%
Clyde	2.92%	4.17%	5.89%	6.98%	8.43%	10.16%	11.92%	13.50%	15.83%	20.20%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Celtic	95.1%	4.9%
Rangers	91.4%	8.6%
Dumbarton	88.5%	11.5%
Heart of Midlothian	88.3%	11.7%
Leith Athletic	83.4%	16.6%
Third Lanark	82.1%	17.9%
Renton	76.3%	23.6%
St. Mirren	73.0%	27.1%
Clyde	64.0%	36.0%
Abercorn	57.8%	42.2%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1892-08-20	Rangers	L 0-4	1480	1508	56.4%	11.8%	31.7%	-13.2	0
1892-08-20	@ Abercorn	W 4-0	1508	1480	31.7%	11.8%	56.4%	+13.2	3
1892-08-20	Renton	W 4-3	1530	1488	64.6%	11.6%	23.8%	+1.5	3
1892-08-20	@ Celtic	L 3-4	1488	1530	23.8%	11.6%	64.6%	-1.5	0
1892-08-20	St. Mirren	L 1-2	1532	1472	66.5%	11.5%	22.0%	-4.1	0
1892-08-20	@ Dumbarton	W 2-1	1472	1532	22.0%	11.5%	66.5%	+4.1	3
1892-08-20	Clyde	W 3-0	1505	1497	60.7%	11.8%	27.5%	+5.3	3
1892-08-20	@ Leith Athletic	L 0-3	1497	1505	27.5%	11.8%	60.7%	-5.3	0
1892-08-20	Heart of Midlothian	L 1-4	1485	1510	56.7%	11.8%	31.4%	-8.6	0
1892-08-20	@ Third Lanark	W 4-1	1510	1485	31.4%	11.8%	56.7%	+8.6	3
1892-08-27	Abercorn	W 5-2	1492	1467	62.7%	11.7%	25.6%	+3.6	3
1892-08-27	@ Clyde	L 2-5	1467	1492	25.6%	11.7%	62.7%	-3.6	0
1892-08-27	Celtic	W 3-1	1518	1532	58.2%	11.8%	30.0%	+3.4	6
1892-08-27	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-3	1532	1518	30.0%	11.8%	58.2%	-3.4	3
1892-08-27	Leith Athletic	W 3-2	1521	1510	61.1%	11.8%	27.2%	+1.7	6
1892-08-27	@ Rangers	L 2-3	1510	1521	27.2%	11.8%	61.1%	-1.7	3
1892-08-27	Third Lanark	L 1-4	1477	1476	59.9%	11.8%	28.3%	-9.0	3
1892-08-27	@ St. Mirren	W 4-1	1476	1477	28.3%	11.8%	59.9%	+9.0	3
1892-09-03	Heart of Midlothian	L 3-4	1464	1522	52.4%	11.9%	35.7%	-3.0	0
1892-09-03	@ Abercorn	W 4-3	1522	1464	35.7%	11.9%	52.4%	+3.0	9
1892-09-03	Third Lanark	L 1-4	1496	1485	61.1%	11.8%	27.2%	-9.2	3
1892-09-03	@ Clyde	W 4-1	1485	1496	27.2%	11.8%	61.1%	+9.2	6
1892-09-03	Dumbarton	W 3-2	1523	1528	59.1%	11.8%	29.1%	+1.8	9
1892-09-03	@ Rangers	L 2-3	1528	1523	29.1%	11.8%	59.1%	-1.8	0
1892-09-03	St. Mirren	W 3-2	1487	1468	62.1%	11.7%	26.2%	+1.6	3
1892-09-03	@ Renton	L 2-3	1468	1487	26.2%	11.7%	62.1%	-1.6	3
1892-09-10	Abercorn	W 3-2	1528	1461	67.3%	11.5%	21.2%	+1.3	6
1892-09-10	@ Celtic	L 2-3	1461	1528	21.2%	11.5%	67.3%	-1.3	0
1892-09-10	Leith Athletic	W 2-1	1526	1508	62.0%	11.7%	26.3%	+1.7	3
1892-09-10	@ Dumbarton	L 1-2	1508	1526	26.3%	11.7%	62.0%	-1.7	3
1892-09-10	Renton	D 2-2	1525	1489	63.9%	11.7%	24.4%	-0.5	10
1892-09-10	@ Heart of Midlothian	D 2-2	1489	1525	24.4%	11.7%	63.9%	+0.5	4
1892-09-10	Clyde	W 8-1	1466	1486	57.3%	11.8%	30.9%	+10.7	6
1892-09-10	@ St. Mirren	L 1-8	1486	1466	30.9%	11.8%	57.3%	-10.7	3
1892-09-10	Rangers	L 2-4	1494	1524	56.1%	11.9%	32.1%	-5.4	6
1892-09-10	@ Third Lanark	W 4-2	1524	1494	32.1%	11.9%	56.1%	+5.4	12
1892-09-17	Heart of Midlothian	L 1-3	1507	1524	57.6%	11.8%	30.5%	-6.1	3
1892-09-17	@ Leith Athletic	W 3-1	1524	1507	30.5%	11.8%	57.6%	+6.1	13
1892-09-17	Abercorn	W 4-0	1477	1459	61.8%	11.7%	26.4%	+6.6	9
1892-09-17	@ St. Mirren	L 0-4	1459	1477	26.4%	11.7%	61.8%	-6.6	0
1892-09-24	Leith Athletic	W 1-0	1453	1500	53.8%	11.9%	34.4%	+2.4	3
1892-09-24	@ Abercorn	L 0-1	1500	1453	34.4%	11.9%	53.8%	-2.4	3
1892-09-24	Renton	D 2-2	1476	1489	58.2%	11.8%	30.0%	-0.3	4
1892-09-24	@ Clyde	D 2-2	1489	1476	30.0%	11.8%	58.2%	+0.3	5
1892-09-24	Third Lanark	L 1-2	1528	1489	64.3%	11.6%	24.0%	-4.0	3
1892-09-24	@ Dumbarton	W 2-1	1489	1528	24.0%	11.6%	64.3%	+4.0	9
1892-09-24	St. Mirren	W 4-0	1530	1483	65.2%	11.6%	23.2%	+5.9	16
1892-09-24	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-4	1483	1530	23.2%	11.6%	65.2%	-5.9	9
1892-09-24	Celtic	D 2-2	1530	1530	59.8%	11.8%	28.4%	-0.4	13
1892-09-24	@ Rangers	D 2-2	1530	1530	28.4%	11.8%	59.8%	+0.4	7
1892-10-01	Clyde	W 3-1	1530	1475	66.0%	11.6%	22.5%	+2.6	10
1892-10-01	@ Celtic	L 1-3	1475	1530	22.5%	11.6%	66.0%	-2.6	4
1892-10-01	Rangers	L 1-2	1498	1529	55.9%	11.9%	32.2%	-3.4	3
1892-10-01	@ Leith Athletic	W 2-1	1529	1498	32.2%	11.9%	55.9%	+3.4	16
1892-10-01	Heart of Midlothian	W 4-1	1489	1536	53.9%	11.9%	34.2%	+5.4	8
1892-10-01	@ Renton	L 1-4	1536	1489	34.2%	11.9%	53.9%	-5.4	16
1892-10-01	Dumbarton	W 3-2	1477	1524	53.9%	11.9%	34.2%	+2.1	12
1892-10-01	@ St. Mirren	L 2-3	1524	1477	34.2%	11.9%	53.9%	-2.1	3
1892-10-01	Abercorn	W 8-0	1493	1455	64.2%	11.6%	24.2%	+11.7	12
1892-10-01	@ Third Lanark	L 0-8	1455	1493	24.2%	11.6%	64.2%	-11.7	3
1892-10-08	Dumbarton	L 1-3	1531	1522	60.8%	11.8%	27.4%	-6.5	16
1892-10-08	@ Heart of Midlothian	W 3-1	1522	1531	27.4%	11.8%	60.8%	+6.5	6
1892-10-08	Leith Athletic	L 2-3	1495	1495	59.8%	11.8%	28.4%	-3.5	8
1892-10-08	@ Renton	W 3-2	1495	1495	28.4%	11.8%	59.8%	+3.5	6
1892-10-15	Renton	L 1-2	1443	1491	53.7%	11.9%	34.4%	-3.3	3
1892-10-15	@ Abercorn	W 2-1	1491	1443	34.4%	11.9%	53.7%	+3.3	11
1892-10-15	Heart of Midlothian	L 2-3	1473	1524	53.3%	11.9%	34.8%	-3.1	4
1892-10-15	@ Clyde	W 3-2	1524	1473	34.8%	11.9%	53.3%	+3.1	19
1892-10-15	Celtic	L 0-3	1529	1533	59.3%	11.8%	28.9%	-10.6	6
1892-10-15	@ Dumbarton	W 3-0	1533	1529	28.9%	11.8%	59.3%	+10.6	13
1892-10-15	Third Lanark	W 2-1	1498	1505	59.0%	11.8%	29.2%	+1.9	9
1892-10-15	@ Leith Athletic	L 1-2	1505	1498	29.2%	11.8%	59.0%	-1.9	12
1892-10-15	St. Mirren	D 0-0	1533	1479	65.8%	11.6%	22.6%	-0.8	17
1892-10-15	@ Rangers	D 0-0	1479	1533	22.6%	11.6%	65.8%	+0.8	13
1892-10-22	Abercorn	W 5-1	1518	1440	68.3%	11.4%	20.2%	+4.3	9
1892-10-22	@ Dumbarton	L 1-5	1440	1518	20.2%	11.4%	68.3%	-4.3	3
1892-10-22	Clyde	W 4-2	1532	1470	66.8%	11.5%	21.7%	+2.2	20
1892-10-22	@ Rangers	L 2-4	1470	1532	21.7%	11.5%	66.8%	-2.2	4
1892-10-22	Celtic	L 1-3	1480	1543	51.7%	11.9%	36.4%	-5.6	13
1892-10-22	@ St. Mirren	W 3-1	1543	1480	36.4%	11.9%	51.7%	+5.5	16
1892-10-22	Renton	W 6-2	1503	1495	60.8%	11.8%	27.5%	+4.9	15
1892-10-22	@ Third Lanark	L 2-6	1495	1503	27.5%	11.8%	60.8%	-4.9	11
1892-11-05	Clyde	W 5-1	1436	1467	55.9%	11.9%	32.3%	+6.6	6
1892-11-05	@ Abercorn	L 1-5	1467	1436	32.3%	11.9%	55.9%	-6.6	4
1892-11-05	Heart of Midlothian	W 5-0	1549	1527	62.3%	11.7%	26.0%	+8.0	19
1892-11-05	@ Celtic	L 0-5	1527	1549	26.0%	11.7%	62.3%	-8.0	19
1892-11-05	St. Mirren	W 5-1	1500	1475	62.8%	11.7%	25.5%	+5.3	12
1892-11-05	@ Leith Athletic	L 1-5	1475	1500	25.5%	11.7%	62.8%	-5.3	13
1892-11-05	Rangers	D 2-2	1490	1534	54.2%	11.9%	33.9%	-0.2	12
1892-11-05	@ Renton	D 2-2	1534	1490	33.9%	11.9%	54.2%	+0.2	21
1892-11-05	Dumbarton	W 3-0	1507	1522	58.0%	11.8%	30.2%	+5.7	18
1892-11-05	@ Third Lanark	L 0-3	1522	1507	30.2%	11.8%	58.0%	-5.7	9
1892-11-19	Dumbarton	W 3-0	1505	1517	58.4%	11.8%	29.7%	+5.7	15
1892-11-19	@ Leith Athletic	L 0-3	1517	1505	29.7%	11.8%	58.4%	-5.6	9
1893-01-28	Celtic	L 0-1	1511	1557	54.0%	11.9%	34.1%	-3.5	15
1893-01-28	@ Leith Athletic	W 1-0	1557	1511	34.1%	11.9%	54.0%	+3.5	22
1893-01-28	Clyde	W 4-1	1513	1461	65.7%	11.6%	22.7%	+3.7	21
1893-01-28	@ Third Lanark	L 1-4	1461	1513	22.7%	11.6%	65.7%	-3.7	4
1893-02-04	Abercorn	W 4-3	1535	1442	69.7%	11.3%	19.0%	+1.2	24
1893-02-04	@ Rangers	L 3-4	1442	1535	19.0%	11.3%	69.7%	-1.2	6
1893-02-04	Third Lanark	W 3-1	1490	1517	56.4%	11.8%	31.7%	+3.6	15
1893-02-04	@ Renton	L 1-3	1517	1490	31.7%	11.8%	56.4%	-3.6	21
1893-02-04	Leith Athletic	W 4-1	1469	1507	55.0%	11.9%	33.1%	+5.3	16
1893-02-04	@ St. Mirren	L 1-4	1507	1469	33.1%	11.9%	55.0%	-5.3	15
1893-02-11	Celtic	W 4-2	1441	1560	43.9%	11.9%	44.3%	+4.3	9
1893-02-11	@ Abercorn	L 2-4	1560	1441	44.3%	11.9%	43.9%	-4.3	22
1893-02-11	St. Mirren	L 1-2	1457	1475	57.7%	11.8%	30.5%	-3.5	4
1893-02-11	@ Clyde	W 2-1	1475	1457	30.5%	11.8%	57.7%	+3.5	19
1893-02-18	Dumbarton	L 1-2	1454	1511	52.5%	11.9%	35.6%	-3.2	4
1893-02-18	@ Clyde	W 2-1	1511	1454	35.6%	11.9%	52.5%	+3.2	12
1893-02-18	Abercorn	W 2-1	1493	1445	65.2%	11.6%	23.2%	+1.5	18
1893-02-18	@ Renton	L 1-2	1445	1493	23.2%	11.6%	65.2%	-1.5	9
1893-02-18	Heart of Midlothian	W 3-1	1478	1519	54.6%	11.9%	33.5%	+3.8	22
1893-02-18	@ St. Mirren	L 1-3	1519	1478	33.5%	11.9%	54.6%	-3.8	19
1893-03-04	St. Mirren	L 1-2	1444	1482	55.0%	11.9%	33.1%	-3.4	9
1893-03-04	@ Abercorn	W 2-1	1482	1444	33.1%	11.9%	55.0%	+3.4	25
1893-03-04	Renton	D 1-1	1514	1495	62.1%	11.7%	26.2%	-0.6	13
1893-03-04	@ Dumbarton	D 1-1	1495	1514	26.2%	11.7%	62.1%	+0.6	19
1893-03-11	Rangers	L 0-3	1450	1536	48.6%	11.9%	39.5%	-8.8	4
1893-03-11	@ Clyde	W 3-0	1536	1450	39.5%	11.9%	48.6%	+8.8	27
1893-03-11	Abercorn	W 3-1	1516	1440	68.0%	11.5%	20.5%	+2.4	22
1893-03-11	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-3	1440	1516	20.5%	11.5%	68.0%	-2.4	9
1893-03-11	Renton	W 3-0	1485	1495	58.6%	11.8%	29.6%	+5.6	28
1893-03-11	@ St. Mirren	L 0-3	1495	1485	29.6%	11.8%	58.6%	-5.6	19
1893-03-18	Dumbarton	W 5-1	1556	1514	64.6%	11.6%	23.7%	+5.0	25
1893-03-18	@ Celtic	L 1-5	1514	1556	23.7%	11.6%	64.6%	-5.0	13
1893-03-18	Rangers	L 1-2	1518	1544	56.5%	11.8%	31.6%	-3.5	22
1893-03-18	@ Heart of Midlothian	W 2-1	1544	1518	31.6%	11.8%	56.5%	+3.5	30
1893-03-18	Clyde	D 1-1	1490	1441	65.3%	11.6%	23.1%	-0.7	20
1893-03-18	@ Renton	D 1-1	1441	1490	23.1%	11.6%	65.3%	+0.7	5
1893-03-18	Leith Athletic	L 1-2	1513	1502	61.1%	11.8%	27.1%	-3.8	21
1893-03-18	@ Third Lanark	W 2-1	1502	1513	27.1%	11.8%	61.1%	+3.8	18
1893-03-25	Abercorn	D 1-1	1506	1438	67.3%	11.5%	21.2%	-0.7	19
1893-03-25	@ Leith Athletic	D 1-1	1438	1506	21.2%	11.5%	67.3%	+0.8	10
1893-03-25	Celtic	L 0-2	1489	1561	50.5%	11.9%	37.6%	-6.3	20
1893-03-25	@ Renton	W 2-0	1561	1489	37.6%	11.9%	50.5%	+6.3	28
1893-03-25	Rangers	D 2-2	1491	1548	52.5%	11.9%	35.6%	-0.2	29
1893-03-25	@ St. Mirren	D 2-2	1548	1491	35.6%	11.9%	52.5%	+0.2	31
1893-04-01	Heart of Midlothian	W 5-1	1509	1514	59.1%	11.8%	29.1%	+6.0	16
1893-04-01	@ Dumbarton	L 1-5	1514	1509	29.1%	11.8%	59.1%	-6.0	22
1893-04-01	Renton	W 6-2	1505	1483	62.4%	11.7%	25.9%	+4.6	22
1893-04-01	@ Leith Athletic	L 2-6	1483	1505	25.9%	11.7%	62.4%	-4.6	20
1893-04-01	Third Lanark	W 2-1	1548	1510	64.2%	11.6%	24.1%	+1.6	34
1893-04-01	@ Rangers	L 1-2	1510	1548	24.1%	11.6%	64.2%	-1.6	21
1893-04-15	Clyde	W 3-1	1515	1442	67.8%	11.5%	20.8%	+2.4	19
1893-04-15	@ Dumbarton	L 1-3	1442	1515	20.8%	11.5%	67.8%	-2.4	5
1893-04-15	Leith Athletic	W 3-1	1508	1510	59.7%	11.8%	28.6%	+3.2	25
1893-04-15	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-3	1510	1508	28.6%	11.8%	59.7%	-3.2	22
1893-04-15	Renton	W 2-0	1550	1478	67.7%	11.5%	20.8%	+2.8	37
1893-04-15	@ Rangers	L 0-2	1478	1550	20.8%	11.5%	67.7%	-2.8	20
1893-04-22	Leith Athletic	L 1-2	1440	1507	51.2%	11.9%	36.9%	-3.2	5
1893-04-22	@ Clyde	W 2-1	1507	1440	36.9%	11.9%	51.2%	+3.2	25
1893-04-22	Rangers	W 3-0	1517	1553	55.4%	11.9%	32.8%	+6.2	22
1893-04-22	@ Dumbarton	L 0-3	1553	1517	32.8%	11.9%	55.4%	-6.2	37
1893-04-22	Celtic	L 0-6	1508	1567	52.2%	11.9%	35.9%	-18.0	21
1893-04-22	@ Third Lanark	W 6-0	1567	1508	35.9%	11.9%	52.2%	+18.0	31
1893-04-29	Dumbarton	W 4-0	1439	1523	48.8%	11.9%	39.3%	+9.5	13
1893-04-29	@ Abercorn	L 0-4	1523	1439	39.3%	11.9%	48.8%	-9.5	22
1893-04-29	Rangers	W 3-0	1585	1546	64.3%	11.6%	24.1%	+4.6	34
1893-04-29	@ Celtic	L 0-3	1546	1585	24.1%	11.6%	64.3%	-4.7	37
1893-04-29	Clyde	L 2-3	1512	1437	68.0%	11.5%	20.5%	-4.0	25
1893-04-29	@ Heart of Midlothian	W 3-2	1437	1512	20.5%	11.5%	68.0%	+4.0	8
1893-04-29	St. Mirren	W 6-1	1490	1491	59.7%	11.8%	28.5%	+7.2	24
1893-04-29	@ Third Lanark	L 1-6	1491	1490	28.5%	11.8%	59.7%	-7.2	29
1893-05-02	St. Mirren	W 4-1	1590	1483	71.0%	11.2%	17.8%	+2.9	37
1893-05-02	@ Celtic	L 1-4	1483	1590	17.8%	11.2%	71.0%	-2.9	29
1893-05-04	Third Lanark	D 2-2	1508	1497	61.1%	11.8%	27.2%	-0.4	26
1893-05-04	@ Heart of Midlothian	D 2-2	1497	1508	27.2%	11.8%	61.1%	+0.4	25
1893-05-06	Third Lanark	W 5-2	1448	1498	53.6%	11.9%	34.5%	+4.7	16
1893-05-06	@ Abercorn	L 2-5	1498	1448	34.5%	11.9%	53.6%	-4.7	25
1893-05-06	Celtic	L 1-2	1441	1593	39.2%	11.8%	49.0%	-2.5	8
1893-05-06	@ Clyde	W 2-1	1593	1441	49.0%	11.8%	39.2%	+2.5	40
1893-05-06	Heart of Midlothian	W 2-1	1542	1507	63.8%	11.7%	24.6%	+1.6	40
1893-05-06	@ Rangers	L 1-2	1507	1542	24.6%	11.7%	63.8%	-1.6	26
1893-05-09	Leith Athletic	W 3-1	1595	1510	69.0%	11.4%	19.6%	+2.3	43
1893-05-09	@ Celtic	L 1-3	1510	1595	19.6%	11.4%	69.0%	-2.3	25
1893-05-18	Third Lanark	L 2-5	1598	1493	70.8%	11.3%	17.9%	-9.2	43
1893-05-18	@ Celtic	W 5-2	1493	1598	17.9%	11.3%	70.8%	+9.2	28
1893-05-20	Dumbarton	L 0-4	1475	1514	55.0%	11.9%	33.1%	-12.9	20
1893-05-20	@ Renton	W 4-0	1514	1475	33.1%	11.9%	55.0%	+12.9	25

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1893-05-18	17.92%	Third Lanark	1493	5	@ Celtic	1598	2
2	1893-04-29	20.51%	Clyde	1437	3	@ Heart of Midlothian	1512	2
3	1892-08-20	21.96%	St. Mirren	1472	2	@ Dumbarton	1532	1
4	1892-09-24	24.04%	Third Lanark	1489	2	@ Dumbarton	1528	1
5	1893-03-18	27.12%	Leith Athletic	1502	2	@ Third Lanark	1513	1
6	1892-09-03	27.19%	Third Lanark	1485	4	@ Clyde	1496	1
7	1892-10-08	27.41%	Dumbarton	1522	3	@ Heart of Midlothian	1531	1
8	1892-08-27	28.35%	Third Lanark	1476	4	@ St. Mirren	1477	1
9	1892-10-08	28.37%	Leith Athletic	1495	3	@ Renton	1495	2
10	1892-10-15	28.87%	Celtic	1533	3	@ Dumbarton	1529	0
11	1893-02-11	30.50%	St. Mirren	1475	2	@ Clyde	1457	1
12	1892-09-17	30.52%	Heart of Midlothian	1524	3	@ Leith Athletic	1507	1
13	1892-08-20	31.45%	Heart of Midlothian	1510	4	@ Third Lanark	1485	1
14	1893-03-18	31.62%	Rangers	1544	2	@ Heart of Midlothian	1518	1
15	1892-08-20	31.72%	Rangers	1508	4	@ Abercorn	1480	0
16	1892-09-10	32.08%	Rangers	1524	4	@ Third Lanark	1494	2
17	1892-10-01	32.23%	Rangers	1529	2	@ Leith Athletic	1498	1
18	1893-03-04	33.07%	St. Mirren	1482	2	@ Abercorn	1444	1
19	1893-05-20	33.13%	Dumbarton	1514	4	@ Renton	1475	0
20	1893-01-28	34.08%	Celtic	1557	1	@ Leith Athletic	1511	0
21	1892-10-15	34.40%	Renton	1491	2	@ Abercorn	1443	1
22	1892-10-15	34.84%	Heart of Midlothian	1524	3	@ Clyde	1473	2
23	1893-02-18	35.63%	Dumbarton	1511	2	@ Clyde	1454	1
24	1892-09-03	35.70%	Heart of Midlothian	1522	4	@ Abercorn	1464	3
25	1893-04-22	35.87%	Celtic	1567	6	@ Third Lanark	1508	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1893-04-22	17.96	Celtic	6	1567	35.87%	@ Third Lanark	0	1508	52.23%
2	1892-08-20	13.20	Rangers	4	1508	31.72%	@ Abercorn	0	1480	56.43%
3	1893-05-20	12.88	Dumbarton	4	1514	33.13%	@ Renton	0	1475	55.00%
4	1892-10-01	11.74	@ Third Lanark	8	1493	64.16%	Abercorn	0	1455	24.20%
5	1892-09-10	10.67	@ St. Mirren	8	1466	57.28%	Clyde	1	1486	30.88%
6	1892-10-15	10.60	Celtic	3	1533	28.87%	@ Dumbarton	0	1529	59.33%
7	1893-04-29	9.50	@ Abercorn	4	1439	48.78%	Dumbarton	0	1523	39.31%
8	1893-05-18	9.20	Third Lanark	5	1493	17.92%	@ Celtic	2	1598	70.82%
9	1892-09-03	9.18	Third Lanark	4	1485	27.19%	@ Clyde	1	1496	61.06%
10	1892-08-27	9.02	Third Lanark	4	1476	28.35%	@ St. Mirren	1	1477	59.87%
11	1893-03-11	8.80	Rangers	3	1536	39.46%	@ Clyde	0	1450	48.64%
12	1892-08-20	8.56	Heart of Midlothian	4	1510	31.45%	@ Third Lanark	1	1485	56.71%
13	1892-11-05	8.03	@ Celtic	5	1549	62.31%	Heart of Midlothian	0	1527	25.98%
14	1893-04-29	7.24	@ Third Lanark	6	1490	59.73%	St. Mirren	1	1491	28.48%
15	1892-11-05	6.64	@ Abercorn	5	1436	55.86%	Clyde	1	1467	32.28%
16	1892-09-17	6.63	@ St. Mirren	4	1477	61.84%	Abercorn	0	1459	26.43%
17	1892-10-08	6.47	Dumbarton	3	1522	27.41%	@ Heart of Midlothian	1	1531	60.83%
18	1893-03-25	6.27	Celtic	2	1561	37.59%	@ Renton	0	1489	50.50%
19	1893-04-22	6.18	@ Dumbarton	3	1517	55.37%	Rangers	0	1553	32.76%
20	1892-09-17	6.15	Heart of Midlothian	3	1524	30.52%	@ Leith Athletic	1	1507	57.65%
21	1893-04-01	6.04	@ Dumbarton	5	1509	59.10%	Heart of Midlothian	1	1514	29.10%
22	1892-09-24	5.87	@ Heart of Midlothian	4	1530	65.17%	St. Mirren	0	1483	23.23%
23	1892-11-05	5.73	@ Third Lanark	3	1507	57.99%	Dumbarton	0	1522	30.18%
24	1892-11-19	5.66	@ Leith Athletic	3	1505	58.44%	Dumbarton	0	1517	29.74%
25	1893-03-11	5.64	@ St. Mirren	3	1485	58.58%	Renton	0	1495	29.61%