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1892-93 Division One Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Celtic

29 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Rangers

4.60 points above expected

28 points · 23.40 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Clyde

5.36 points below expected

6 points · 11.36 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Celtic 18 14 1 3 29 54 25 +29 25.62 +3.38
2 Rangers 18 12 4 2 28 41 27 +14 23.40 +4.60
3 St. Mirren 18 9 2 7 20 40 39 +1 15.48 +4.52
4 Third Lanark 18 9 1 8 19 53 39 +14 18.01 +0.99
5 Heart of Midlothian 18 8 2 8 18 39 41 -2 21.11 -3.11
6 Leith Athletic 18 8 1 9 17 35 31 +4 17.77 -0.77
7 Dumbarton 18 8 1 9 17 35 35 0 19.69 -2.69
8 Renton 18 5 5 8 15 31 44 -13 16.51 -1.51
9 Abercorn 18 5 1 12 11 35 52 -17 11.05 -0.05
10 Clyde 18 2 2 14 6 25 55 -30 11.36 -5.36

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Celtic 1760 29 25.62 +3.38 89.4% 13 20 24 26 28 31 36
Rangers 1622 28 23.40 +4.60 93.2% 9 18 21 23 26 29 34
Dumbarton 1557 17 19.69 -2.69 26.9% 6 14 17 20 22 25 33
Third Lanark 1550 19 18.01 +0.99 66.3% 6 12 16 18 20 24 31
Leith Athletic 1513 17 17.77 -0.77 47.3% 5 12 15 18 20 24 30
St. Mirren 1478 20 15.48 +4.52 91.8% 1 10 13 15 18 21 28
Heart of Midlothian 1468 18 21.11 -3.11 24.0% 6 15 19 21 24 27 34
Abercorn 1445 11 11.05 -0.05 55.9% 1 6 9 11 13 17 24
Renton 1355 15 16.51 -1.51 38.5% 4 11 14 16 19 22 31
Clyde 1259 6 11.36 -5.36 6.7% 1 6 9 11 14 17 26

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ABE CEL CLY DUM HOM LA RAN REN SM TL
Abercorn —
1-0-1
0.86
1-0-1
2.45
1-0-1
1.38
0-0-2
1.40
1-1-0
1.74
0-0-2
1.91
0-0-2
1.73
0-0-2
2.08
1-0-1
1.98
Celtic
1-0-1
4.91
 —
2-0-0
5.11
2-0-0
3.54
1-0-1
3.31
2-0-0
4.26
1-1-0
3.24
2-0-0
4.26
2-0-0
4.40
1-0-1
4.34
Clyde
1-0-1
3.31
0-0-2
0.66
 —
0-0-2
1.44
1-0-1
1.35
0-0-2
1.79
0-0-2
0.87
0-2-0
1.87
0-0-2
2.42
0-0-2
2.23
Dumbarton
1-0-1
4.38
0-0-2
2.23
2-0-0
4.33
 —
2-0-0
2.46
1-0-1
3.02
1-0-1
2.14
1-1-0
3.07
0-0-2
3.86
0-0-2
3.05
Heart of Midlothian
2-0-0
4.37
1-0-1
2.46
1-0-1
4.42
0-0-2
3.30
 —
2-0-0
3.11
0-0-2
1.99
0-1-1
4.14
1-0-1
3.72
1-1-0
3.07
Leith Athletic
0-1-1
4.03
0-0-2
1.51
2-0-0
3.98
1-0-1
2.75
0-0-2
2.66
 —
0-0-2
2.02
2-0-0
2.88
1-0-1
3.49
2-0-0
2.33
Rangers
2-0-0
3.85
0-1-1
2.52
2-0-0
4.90
1-0-1
3.62
2-0-0
3.78
2-0-0
3.75
 —
1-1-0
4.14
0-2-0
3.93
2-0-0
3.59
Renton
2-0-0
4.04
0-0-2
1.51
0-2-0
3.90
0-1-1
2.69
1-1-0
1.63
0-0-2
2.89
0-1-1
1.63
 —
1-0-1
3.16
1-0-1
2.28
St. Mirren
2-0-0
3.69
0-0-2
1.37
2-0-0
3.34
2-0-0
1.91
1-0-1
2.05
1-0-1
2.28
0-2-0
1.84
1-0-1
2.60
 —
0-0-2
3.15
Third Lanark
1-0-1
3.79
1-0-1
1.43
2-0-0
3.53
2-0-0
2.72
0-1-1
2.69
0-0-2
3.44
0-0-2
2.18
1-0-1
3.49
2-0-0
2.62
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.58 +5.8
Allowed 0.83 -6.4
Differential 0.87 +3.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.11%1.11%1.11%4.44%2.78%1.67%12.22%
11.11%3.33%8.89%6.11%3.89%3.89%27.22%
21.11%8.89%6.67%4.44%1.67%2.78%25.56%
34.44%6.11%4.44%—1.67%—16.67%
42.78%3.89%1.67%1.67%——10.00%
5+1.67%3.89%2.78%———8.33%
Total12.22%27.22%25.56%16.67%10.00%8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.16 2.16 +0.00
SD 1.59 1.59 2.69
CV 0.74 0.74 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————11.11%5.56%16.67%
15.56%5.56%16.67%5.56%—5.56%38.89%
2———5.56%—5.56%11.11%
3————11.11%—11.11%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
Total11.11%11.11%27.78%11.11%22.22%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 2.89 -0.94
SD 1.66 2.00 3.08
CV 0.85 0.69 —
Max 5 8 +4
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
15.56%——5.56%——11.11%
25.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%27.78%
311.11%16.67%5.56%———33.33%
4—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
5+11.11%5.56%————16.67%
Total33.33%33.33%11.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.00 1.39 +1.61
SD 1.37 1.50 2.35
CV 0.46 1.08 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 1 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———11.11%——11.11%
1—5.56%22.22%11.11%11.11%11.11%61.11%
2——5.56%5.56%5.56%—16.67%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total—5.56%38.89%27.78%16.67%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 3.06 -1.67
SD 1.14 1.59 2.14
CV 0.82 0.52 —
Max 5 8 +3
Min 0 1 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———16.67%5.56%—22.22%
1—5.56%11.11%——5.56%22.22%
2—11.11%—11.11%——22.22%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+—11.11%————11.11%
Total11.11%38.89%11.11%27.78%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.94 +0.00
SD 1.63 1.39 2.77
CV 0.84 0.72 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—————5.56%5.56%
1——11.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%33.33%
2——11.11%5.56%——16.67%
3—22.22%5.56%———27.78%
45.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
5+———————
Total5.56%27.78%27.78%22.22%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 2.28 -0.11
SD 1.25 1.41 2.47
CV 0.58 0.62 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%————11.11%
1—5.56%11.11%16.67%5.56%—38.89%
2—16.67%—5.56%——22.22%
311.11%—5.56%———16.67%
4———————
5+—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
Total11.11%38.89%22.22%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.72 +0.22
SD 1.59 1.13 2.16
CV 0.82 0.65 —
Max 6 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%——11.11%——16.67%
1———————
25.56%22.22%16.67%———44.44%
35.56%—11.11%———16.67%
45.56%—11.11%5.56%——22.22%
5+———————
Total22.22%22.22%38.89%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 1.50 +0.78
SD 1.32 1.04 1.73
CV 0.58 0.70 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%5.56%5.56%—22.22%
1—11.11%————11.11%
2—11.11%16.67%5.56%—11.11%44.44%
3—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total—33.33%33.33%11.11%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 2.44 -0.72
SD 1.18 1.62 2.08
CV 0.68 0.66 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 1 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%———5.56%—11.11%
1———5.56%11.11%11.11%27.78%
2—16.67%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
35.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total16.67%33.33%11.11%11.11%16.67%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 2.17 +0.06
SD 1.86 1.82 3.17
CV 0.84 0.84 —
Max 8 6 +7
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—————5.56%5.56%
1——16.67%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
2—5.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%22.22%
35.56%—————5.56%
4—16.67%————16.67%
5+5.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
Total11.11%27.78%33.33%5.56%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.94 2.17 +0.78
SD 2.21 1.65 3.47
CV 0.75 0.76 —
Max 8 6 +8
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Rangers 28 23.40 +4.60
2 St. Mirren 20 15.48 +4.52
3 Celtic 29 25.62 +3.38
4 Third Lanark 19 18.01 +0.99
5 Abercorn 11 11.05 -0.05

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Clyde 6 11.36 -5.36
2 Heart of Midlothian 18 21.11 -3.11
3 Dumbarton 17 19.69 -2.69
4 Renton 15 16.51 -1.51
5 Leith Athletic 17 17.77 -0.77

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 St. Mirren 5 Feb 4 – Mar 11 1 in 33
2 Leith Athletic 4 Oct 8 – Nov 19 1 in 23
3 Rangers 4 Aug 20 – Sep 10 1 in 16
4 Celtic 7 Mar 18 – May 9 1 in 10
5 Abercorn 2 Apr 29 – May 6 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Third Lanark 4 Feb 4 – Apr 22 1 in 29
2 Leith Athletic 5 Aug 27 – Oct 1 1 in 28
3 Clyde 8 Oct 1 – Mar 11 1 in 28
4 Dumbarton 2 Aug 20 – Sep 3 1 in 15
5 Heart of Midlothian 2 Oct 1 – Oct 8 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rangers 15 Aug 20 – Apr 15 1 in 140
2 St. Mirren 6 Feb 4 – Mar 25 1 in 21
3 Celtic 7 Sep 10 – Jan 28 1 in 20
4 Renton 4 Sep 3 – Oct 1 1 in 20
5 Abercorn 3 Mar 25 – May 6 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Clyde 14 Sep 3 – Apr 22 1 in 85
2 Renton 7 Mar 4 – May 20 1 in 40
3 Heart of Midlothian 3 Apr 29 – May 6 1 in 13
4 Third Lanark 4 Feb 4 – Apr 22 1 in 10
5 Leith Athletic 5 Aug 27 – Oct 1 1 in 10

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Celtic58.63%23.53%10.32%4.39%1.83%0.83%0.37%0.05%0.05%—
Rangers23.50%33.47%19.36%10.81%6.33%3.78%1.83%0.71%0.18%0.03%
St. Mirren0.26%1.48%4.05%6.97%11.37%15.75%19.15%20.71%13.50%6.76%
Third Lanark2.34%6.61%11.27%16.43%17.00%15.94%14.41%10.05%4.28%1.67%
Heart of Midlothian8.72%16.71%21.27%18.14%14.20%10.06%6.28%3.30%1.04%0.28%
Leith Athletic1.78%5.47%10.75%13.96%16.16%16.83%15.24%11.99%5.68%2.14%
Dumbarton4.11%10.25%17.67%18.86%17.25%13.23%9.78%6.04%2.19%0.62%
Renton0.66%2.33%4.86%9.14%12.53%17.55%19.62%18.79%10.46%4.06%
Abercorn—0.10%0.22%0.69%1.60%3.04%6.74%14.07%31.51%42.03%
Clyde—0.05%0.23%0.61%1.73%2.99%6.58%14.29%31.11%42.41%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+22.22%
Clear Edge
55.56%11.11%33.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge
196 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
078.52500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.87 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.40+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.4
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
59%
Celtic, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.8 * Some Luck: 2.8 to 4.2 * Lucky: 4.2 to 5.6 * Wild Swing: 5.6 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.1 * Close: 1.1 to 1.65 * Off: 1.65 to 2.2 * Way Off: 2.2 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.20 points
Some Luck
03.509
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.40
Close
01.373
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
93.22%
Rangers
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
6.74%
Clyde
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.63
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
65%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 93%
95%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
43%
Frequent
0%42%100%
Blowouts
Expected
39%
Very Frequent
0%35%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.50
Highly Predictable
00.492
Matchup Imbalance
0.43
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.87
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.36
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Chalky
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
As Expected
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.91
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.84
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.071
Well Within Noise
00.1620.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Celtic 99.95% 0.05%
Rangers 99.79% 0.21%
Heart of Midlothian 98.68% 1.32%
Dumbarton 97.19% 2.81%
Third Lanark 94.05% 5.95%
Leith Athletic 92.18% 7.82%
Renton 85.48% 14.52%
St. Mirren 79.74% 20.26%
Clyde 26.48% 73.52%
Abercorn 26.46% 73.54%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1892-08-20 Rangers L 0-4 1444 1520 50.0% 11.8% 38.2% -65.9 0
1892-08-20 @ Abercorn W 4-0 1520 1444 38.2% 11.8% 50.0% +65.9 2
1892-08-20 Renton W 4-3 1614 1454 74.8% 11.7% 13.6% +4.8 2
1892-08-20 @ Celtic L 3-4 1454 1614 13.6% 11.7% 74.8% -4.8 0
1892-08-20 St. Mirren L 1-2 1601 1392 77.8% 11.6% 10.5% -26.9 0
1892-08-20 @ Dumbarton W 2-1 1392 1601 10.5% 11.6% 77.8% +26.9 2
1892-08-20 Clyde W 3-0 1497 1481 61.6% 11.8% 26.6% +28.5 2
1892-08-20 @ Leith Athletic L 0-3 1481 1497 26.6% 11.8% 61.6% -28.5 0
1892-08-20 Heart of Midlothian L 1-4 1457 1548 47.9% 11.8% 40.3% -40.9 0
1892-08-20 @ Third Lanark W 4-1 1548 1457 40.3% 11.8% 47.9% +40.9 2
1892-08-27 Abercorn W 5-2 1452 1378 67.8% 11.7% 20.5% +16.3 2
1892-08-27 @ Clyde L 2-5 1378 1452 20.5% 11.7% 67.8% -16.3 0
1892-08-27 Celtic W 3-1 1589 1619 56.1% 11.8% 32.1% +20.2 4
1892-08-27 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-3 1619 1589 32.1% 11.8% 56.1% -20.2 2
1892-08-27 Leith Athletic W 3-2 1586 1525 66.4% 11.8% 21.8% +7.8 4
1892-08-27 @ Rangers L 2-3 1525 1586 21.8% 11.8% 66.4% -7.8 2
1892-08-27 Third Lanark L 1-4 1419 1416 60.2% 11.8% 28.1% -50.7 2
1892-08-27 @ St. Mirren W 4-1 1416 1419 28.1% 11.8% 60.2% +50.7 2
1892-09-03 Heart of Midlothian L 3-4 1362 1609 27.0% 11.7% 61.2% -9.2 0
1892-09-03 @ Abercorn W 4-3 1609 1362 61.2% 11.7% 27.0% +9.2 6
1892-09-03 Third Lanark L 1-4 1469 1467 60.1% 11.8% 28.2% -50.6 2
1892-09-03 @ Clyde W 4-1 1467 1469 28.2% 11.8% 60.1% +50.6 4
1892-09-03 Dumbarton W 3-2 1593 1575 62.0% 11.8% 26.2% +9.2 6
1892-09-03 @ Rangers L 2-3 1575 1593 26.2% 11.8% 62.0% -9.2 0
1892-09-03 St. Mirren W 3-2 1449 1368 68.4% 11.7% 19.9% +7.1 2
1892-09-03 @ Renton L 2-3 1368 1449 19.9% 11.7% 68.4% -7.1 2
1892-09-10 Abercorn W 3-2 1599 1352 79.7% 11.6% 8.7% +3.2 4
1892-09-10 @ Celtic L 2-3 1352 1599 8.7% 11.6% 79.7% -3.2 0
1892-09-10 Leith Athletic W 2-1 1565 1517 65.1% 11.8% 23.1% +8.6 2
1892-09-10 @ Dumbarton L 1-2 1517 1565 23.1% 11.8% 65.1% -8.6 2
1892-09-10 Renton D 2-2 1618 1456 74.9% 11.7% 13.4% -4.2 7
1892-09-10 @ Heart of Midlothian D 2-2 1456 1618 13.4% 11.7% 74.9% +4.2 3
1892-09-10 Clyde W 8-1 1361 1418 52.6% 11.8% 35.6% +67.8 4
1892-09-10 @ St. Mirren L 1-8 1418 1361 35.6% 11.8% 52.6% -67.8 2
1892-09-10 Rangers L 2-4 1517 1602 48.8% 11.8% 39.5% -26.3 4
1892-09-10 @ Third Lanark W 4-2 1602 1517 39.5% 11.8% 48.8% +26.3 8
1892-09-17 Heart of Midlothian L 1-3 1509 1614 45.9% 11.8% 42.3% -27.8 2
1892-09-17 @ Leith Athletic W 3-1 1614 1509 42.3% 11.8% 45.9% +27.8 9
1892-09-17 Abercorn W 4-0 1429 1349 68.3% 11.7% 19.9% +28.5 6
1892-09-17 @ St. Mirren L 0-4 1349 1429 19.9% 11.7% 68.3% -28.5 0
1892-09-24 Leith Athletic W 1-0 1321 1481 38.1% 11.8% 50.1% +18.5 2
1892-09-24 @ Abercorn L 0-1 1481 1321 50.1% 11.8% 38.1% -18.5 2
1892-09-24 Renton D 2-2 1350 1460 45.2% 11.8% 43.0% -0.1 3
1892-09-24 @ Clyde D 2-2 1460 1350 43.0% 11.8% 45.2% +0.1 4
1892-09-24 Third Lanark L 1-2 1574 1491 68.6% 11.7% 19.7% -23.6 2
1892-09-24 @ Dumbarton W 2-1 1491 1574 19.7% 11.7% 68.6% +23.6 6
1892-09-24 St. Mirren W 4-0 1642 1458 76.4% 11.6% 12.0% +17.6 11
1892-09-24 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-4 1458 1642 12.0% 11.6% 76.4% -17.6 6
1892-09-24 Celtic D 2-2 1629 1602 62.9% 11.8% 25.3% -2.5 9
1892-09-24 @ Rangers D 2-2 1602 1629 25.3% 11.8% 62.9% +2.5 5
1892-10-01 Clyde W 3-1 1604 1350 80.1% 11.6% 8.3% +5.7 7
1892-10-01 @ Celtic L 1-3 1350 1604 8.3% 11.6% 80.1% -5.7 3
1892-10-01 Rangers L 1-2 1463 1626 37.6% 11.8% 50.6% -13.5 2
1892-10-01 @ Leith Athletic W 2-1 1626 1463 50.6% 11.8% 37.6% +13.5 11
1892-10-01 Heart of Midlothian W 4-1 1461 1660 33.0% 11.8% 55.3% +46.7 6
1892-10-01 @ Renton L 1-4 1660 1461 55.3% 11.8% 33.0% -46.7 11
1892-10-01 Dumbarton W 3-2 1440 1550 45.2% 11.8% 43.0% +14.4 8
1892-10-01 @ St. Mirren L 2-3 1550 1440 43.0% 11.8% 45.2% -14.4 2
1892-10-01 Abercorn W 8-0 1515 1339 75.8% 11.7% 12.5% +35.3 8
1892-10-01 @ Third Lanark L 0-8 1339 1515 12.5% 11.7% 75.8% -35.3 2
1892-10-08 Dumbarton L 1-3 1613 1536 68.0% 11.7% 20.2% -40.5 11
1892-10-08 @ Heart of Midlothian W 3-1 1536 1613 20.2% 11.7% 68.0% +40.5 4
1892-10-08 Leith Athletic L 2-3 1507 1449 66.2% 11.8% 22.1% -21.6 6
1892-10-08 @ Renton W 3-2 1449 1507 22.1% 11.8% 66.2% +21.6 4
1892-10-15 Renton L 1-2 1304 1486 35.2% 11.8% 53.1% -12.7 2
1892-10-15 @ Abercorn W 2-1 1486 1304 53.1% 11.8% 35.2% +12.7 8
1892-10-15 Heart of Midlothian L 2-3 1345 1572 29.4% 11.7% 58.9% -10.2 3
1892-10-15 @ Clyde W 3-2 1572 1345 58.9% 11.7% 29.4% +10.2 13
1892-10-15 Celtic L 0-3 1576 1610 55.7% 11.8% 32.5% -55.8 4
1892-10-15 @ Dumbarton W 3-0 1610 1576 32.5% 11.8% 55.7% +55.8 9
1892-10-15 Third Lanark W 2-1 1471 1550 49.5% 11.8% 38.7% +13.8 6
1892-10-15 @ Leith Athletic L 1-2 1550 1471 38.7% 11.8% 49.5% -13.8 8
1892-10-15 St. Mirren D 0-0 1640 1455 76.4% 11.6% 11.9% -6.7 12
1892-10-15 @ Rangers D 0-0 1455 1640 11.9% 11.6% 76.4% +6.7 9
1892-10-22 Abercorn W 5-1 1521 1291 78.9% 11.6% 9.5% +11.7 6
1892-10-22 @ Dumbarton L 1-5 1291 1521 9.5% 11.6% 78.9% -11.7 2
1892-10-22 Clyde W 4-2 1633 1334 81.9% 11.5% 6.6% +4.0 14
1892-10-22 @ Rangers L 2-4 1334 1633 6.6% 11.5% 81.9% -4.0 3
1892-10-22 Celtic L 1-3 1461 1666 32.2% 11.8% 56.0% -20.3 9
1892-10-22 @ St. Mirren W 3-1 1666 1461 56.0% 11.8% 32.2% +20.3 11
1892-10-22 Renton W 6-2 1536 1498 64.1% 11.8% 24.1% +24.1 10
1892-10-22 @ Third Lanark L 2-6 1498 1536 24.1% 11.8% 64.1% -24.1 8
1892-11-05 Clyde W 5-1 1279 1330 53.4% 11.8% 34.8% +39.7 4
1892-11-05 @ Abercorn L 1-5 1330 1279 34.8% 11.8% 53.4% -39.7 3
1892-11-05 Heart of Midlothian W 5-0 1686 1583 70.4% 11.7% 17.9% +31.7 13
1892-11-05 @ Celtic L 0-5 1583 1686 17.9% 11.7% 70.4% -31.7 13
1892-11-05 St. Mirren W 5-1 1484 1441 64.7% 11.8% 23.5% +27.8 8
1892-11-05 @ Leith Athletic L 1-5 1441 1484 23.5% 11.8% 64.7% -27.8 9
1892-11-05 Rangers D 2-2 1474 1637 37.8% 11.8% 50.5% +0.8 9
1892-11-05 @ Renton D 2-2 1637 1474 50.5% 11.8% 37.8% -0.8 15
1892-11-05 Dumbarton W 3-0 1560 1532 63.0% 11.8% 25.2% +27.2 12
1892-11-05 @ Third Lanark L 0-3 1532 1560 25.2% 11.8% 63.0% -27.2 6
1892-11-19 Dumbarton W 3-0 1512 1505 60.6% 11.8% 27.6% +29.5 10
1892-11-19 @ Leith Athletic L 0-3 1505 1512 27.6% 11.8% 60.6% -29.5 6
1893-01-28 Celtic L 0-1 1542 1718 36.0% 11.8% 52.2% -13.7 10
1893-01-28 @ Leith Athletic W 1-0 1718 1542 52.2% 11.8% 36.0% +13.7 15
1893-01-28 Clyde W 4-1 1588 1291 81.9% 11.5% 6.7% +6.4 14
1893-01-28 @ Third Lanark L 1-4 1291 1588 6.7% 11.5% 81.9% -6.4 3
1893-02-04 Abercorn W 4-3 1636 1319 82.6% 11.5% 6.0% +2.2 17
1893-02-04 @ Rangers L 3-4 1319 1636 6.0% 11.5% 82.6% -2.2 4
1893-02-04 Third Lanark W 3-1 1475 1594 44.0% 11.8% 44.3% +27.0 11
1893-02-04 @ Renton L 1-3 1594 1475 44.3% 11.8% 44.0% -26.9 14
1893-02-04 Leith Athletic W 4-1 1413 1528 44.5% 11.8% 43.7% +37.7 11
1893-02-04 @ St. Mirren L 1-4 1528 1413 43.7% 11.8% 44.5% -37.7 10
1893-02-11 Celtic W 4-2 1317 1731 12.3% 11.6% 76.1% +40.7 6
1893-02-11 @ Abercorn L 2-4 1731 1317 76.1% 11.6% 12.3% -40.7 15
1893-02-11 St. Mirren L 1-2 1284 1451 37.3% 11.8% 51.0% -13.3 3
1893-02-11 @ Clyde W 2-1 1451 1284 51.0% 11.8% 37.3% +13.4 13
1893-02-18 Dumbarton L 1-2 1271 1476 32.2% 11.8% 56.0% -11.7 3
1893-02-18 @ Clyde W 2-1 1476 1271 56.0% 11.8% 32.2% +11.7 8
1893-02-18 Abercorn W 2-1 1502 1358 73.7% 11.7% 14.6% +5.6 13
1893-02-18 @ Renton L 1-2 1358 1502 14.6% 11.7% 73.7% -5.6 6
1893-02-18 Heart of Midlothian W 3-1 1464 1551 48.5% 11.8% 39.7% +24.5 15
1893-02-18 @ St. Mirren L 1-3 1551 1464 39.7% 11.8% 48.5% -24.5 13
1893-03-04 St. Mirren L 1-2 1352 1489 41.4% 11.8% 46.8% -14.7 6
1893-03-04 @ Abercorn W 2-1 1489 1352 46.8% 11.8% 41.4% +14.7 17
1893-03-04 Renton D 1-1 1487 1508 57.4% 11.8% 30.9% -2.3 9
1893-03-04 @ Dumbarton D 1-1 1508 1487 30.9% 11.8% 57.4% +2.3 14
1893-03-11 Rangers L 0-3 1259 1638 14.7% 11.6% 73.7% -16.4 3
1893-03-11 @ Clyde W 3-0 1638 1259 73.7% 11.6% 14.7% +16.4 19
1893-03-11 Abercorn W 3-1 1526 1337 76.7% 11.6% 11.7% +7.9 15
1893-03-11 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-3 1337 1526 11.7% 11.6% 76.7% -7.8 6
1893-03-11 Renton W 3-0 1503 1510 59.0% 11.8% 29.2% +31.1 19
1893-03-11 @ St. Mirren L 0-3 1510 1503 29.2% 11.8% 59.0% -31.1 14
1893-03-18 Dumbarton W 5-1 1691 1485 77.6% 11.6% 10.7% +13.2 17
1893-03-18 @ Celtic L 1-5 1485 1691 10.7% 11.6% 77.6% -13.2 9
1893-03-18 Rangers L 1-2 1534 1655 43.7% 11.8% 44.5% -15.4 15
1893-03-18 @ Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 1655 1534 44.5% 11.8% 43.7% +15.4 21
1893-03-18 Clyde D 1-1 1479 1243 79.2% 11.6% 9.2% -6.5 15
1893-03-18 @ Renton D 1-1 1243 1479 9.2% 11.6% 79.2% +6.5 4
1893-03-18 Leith Athletic L 1-2 1567 1490 68.0% 11.7% 20.3% -23.4 14
1893-03-18 @ Third Lanark W 2-1 1490 1567 20.3% 11.7% 68.0% +23.4 12
1893-03-25 Abercorn D 1-1 1514 1329 76.4% 11.6% 12.0% -6.0 13
1893-03-25 @ Leith Athletic D 1-1 1329 1514 12.0% 11.6% 76.4% +6.0 7
1893-03-25 Celtic L 0-2 1472 1704 28.9% 11.7% 59.4% -21.2 15
1893-03-25 @ Renton W 2-0 1704 1472 59.4% 11.7% 28.9% +21.2 19
1893-03-25 Rangers D 2-2 1534 1670 41.5% 11.8% 46.7% +0.3 20
1893-03-25 @ St. Mirren D 2-2 1670 1534 46.7% 11.8% 41.5% -0.3 22
1893-04-01 Heart of Midlothian W 5-1 1472 1519 53.9% 11.8% 34.3% +39.2 11
1893-04-01 @ Dumbarton L 1-5 1519 1472 34.3% 11.8% 53.9% -39.2 15
1893-04-01 Renton W 6-2 1508 1451 66.0% 11.8% 22.2% +22.3 15
1893-04-01 @ Leith Athletic L 2-6 1451 1508 22.2% 11.8% 66.0% -22.3 15
1893-04-01 Third Lanark W 2-1 1670 1544 72.3% 11.7% 16.0% +6.1 24
1893-04-01 @ Rangers L 1-2 1544 1670 16.0% 11.7% 72.3% -6.1 14
1893-04-15 Clyde W 3-1 1511 1249 80.4% 11.6% 8.0% +5.4 13
1893-04-15 @ Dumbarton L 1-3 1249 1511 8.0% 11.6% 80.4% -5.4 4
1893-04-15 Leith Athletic W 3-1 1480 1530 53.5% 11.8% 34.8% +21.7 17
1893-04-15 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-3 1530 1480 34.8% 11.8% 53.5% -21.7 15
1893-04-15 Renton W 2-0 1676 1429 79.8% 11.6% 8.7% +6.8 26
1893-04-15 @ Rangers L 0-2 1429 1676 8.7% 11.6% 79.8% -6.8 15
1893-04-22 Leith Athletic L 1-2 1244 1508 25.1% 11.7% 63.1% -9.3 4
1893-04-22 @ Clyde W 2-1 1508 1244 63.1% 11.7% 25.1% +9.3 17
1893-04-22 Rangers W 3-0 1516 1683 37.3% 11.8% 50.9% +51.3 15
1893-04-22 @ Dumbarton L 0-3 1683 1516 50.9% 11.8% 37.3% -51.3 26
1893-04-22 Celtic L 0-6 1537 1725 34.4% 11.8% 53.8% -69.0 14
1893-04-22 @ Third Lanark W 6-0 1725 1537 53.8% 11.8% 34.4% +69.1 21
1893-04-29 Dumbarton W 4-0 1335 1568 28.8% 11.7% 59.5% +77.6 9
1893-04-29 @ Abercorn L 0-4 1568 1335 59.5% 11.7% 28.8% -77.6 15
1893-04-29 Rangers W 3-0 1794 1631 75.0% 11.7% 13.4% +14.9 23
1893-04-29 @ Celtic L 0-3 1631 1794 13.4% 11.7% 75.0% -15.0 26
1893-04-29 Clyde L 2-3 1501 1235 80.7% 11.5% 7.8% -26.5 17
1893-04-29 @ Heart of Midlothian W 3-2 1235 1501 7.8% 11.5% 80.7% +26.5 6
1893-04-29 St. Mirren W 6-1 1468 1535 51.3% 11.8% 36.9% +51.2 16
1893-04-29 @ Third Lanark L 1-6 1535 1468 36.9% 11.8% 51.3% -51.2 20
1893-05-02 St. Mirren W 4-1 1809 1483 82.9% 11.5% 5.7% +5.5 25
1893-05-02 @ Celtic L 1-4 1483 1809 5.7% 11.5% 82.9% -5.5 20
1893-05-04 Third Lanark D 2-2 1475 1520 54.2% 11.8% 34.0% -1.3 18
1893-05-04 @ Heart of Midlothian D 2-2 1520 1475 34.0% 11.8% 54.2% +1.3 17
1893-05-06 Third Lanark W 5-2 1413 1521 45.5% 11.8% 42.7% +32.0 11
1893-05-06 @ Abercorn L 2-5 1521 1413 42.7% 11.8% 45.5% -32.0 17
1893-05-06 Celtic L 1-2 1261 1815 5.9% 11.3% 82.7% -2.3 6
1893-05-06 @ Clyde W 2-1 1815 1261 82.7% 11.3% 5.9% +2.3 27
1893-05-06 Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 1616 1474 73.6% 11.7% 14.7% +5.7 28
1893-05-06 @ Rangers L 1-2 1474 1616 14.7% 11.7% 73.6% -5.7 18
1893-05-09 Leith Athletic W 3-1 1817 1518 82.0% 11.5% 6.6% +4.5 29
1893-05-09 @ Celtic L 1-3 1518 1817 6.6% 11.5% 82.0% -4.5 17
1893-05-18 Third Lanark L 2-5 1821 1489 83.1% 11.4% 5.5% -61.2 29
1893-05-18 @ Celtic W 5-2 1489 1821 5.5% 11.4% 83.1% +61.2 19
1893-05-20 Dumbarton L 0-4 1422 1490 51.1% 11.8% 37.1% -67.2 15
1893-05-20 @ Renton W 4-0 1490 1422 37.1% 11.8% 51.1% +67.2 17

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1893-05-18 5.49% Third Lanark 1489 5 @ Celtic 1821 2
2 1893-04-29 7.81% Clyde 1235 3 @ Heart of Midlothian 1501 2
3 1892-08-20 10.55% St. Mirren 1392 2 @ Dumbarton 1601 1
4 1893-02-11 12.34% @ Abercorn 1317 4 Celtic 1731 2
5 1892-09-24 19.69% Third Lanark 1491 2 @ Dumbarton 1574 1
6 1892-10-08 20.24% Dumbarton 1536 3 @ Heart of Midlothian 1613 1
7 1893-03-18 20.26% Leith Athletic 1490 2 @ Third Lanark 1567 1
8 1892-10-08 22.05% Leith Athletic 1449 3 @ Renton 1507 2
9 1892-08-27 28.05% Third Lanark 1416 4 @ St. Mirren 1419 1
10 1892-09-03 28.18% Third Lanark 1467 4 @ Clyde 1469 1
11 1893-04-29 28.81% @ Abercorn 1335 4 Dumbarton 1568 0
12 1892-10-15 32.53% Celtic 1610 3 @ Dumbarton 1576 0
13 1892-10-01 32.96% @ Renton 1461 4 Heart of Midlothian 1660 1
14 1893-05-20 37.13% Dumbarton 1490 4 @ Renton 1422 0
15 1893-04-22 37.30% @ Dumbarton 1516 3 Rangers 1683 0
16 1892-09-24 38.09% @ Abercorn 1321 1 Leith Athletic 1481 0
17 1892-08-20 38.17% Rangers 1520 4 @ Abercorn 1444 0
18 1892-09-10 39.47% Rangers 1602 4 @ Third Lanark 1517 2
19 1892-08-20 40.29% Heart of Midlothian 1548 4 @ Third Lanark 1457 1
20 1892-09-17 42.31% Heart of Midlothian 1614 3 @ Leith Athletic 1509 1
21 1893-02-04 43.96% @ Renton 1475 3 Third Lanark 1594 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1893-04-29 77.58 @ Abercorn 4 1335 28.81% Dumbarton 0 1568 59.45% 11.74%
2 1893-04-22 69.06 Celtic 6 1725 53.81% @ Third Lanark 0 1537 34.43% 11.76%
3 1892-09-10 67.82 @ St. Mirren 8 1361 52.61% Clyde 1 1418 35.61% 11.78%
4 1893-05-20 67.20 Dumbarton 4 1490 37.13% @ Renton 0 1422 51.08% 11.79%
5 1892-08-20 65.94 Rangers 4 1520 38.17% @ Abercorn 0 1444 50.05% 11.79%
6 1893-05-18 61.21 Third Lanark 5 1489 5.49% @ Celtic 2 1821 83.08% 11.44%
7 1892-10-15 55.78 Celtic 3 1610 32.53% @ Dumbarton 0 1576 55.68% 11.78%
8 1893-04-22 51.29 @ Dumbarton 3 1516 37.30% Rangers 0 1683 50.93% 11.77%
9 1893-04-29 51.22 @ Third Lanark 6 1468 51.34% St. Mirren 1 1535 36.88% 11.79%
10 1892-08-27 50.69 Third Lanark 4 1416 28.05% @ St. Mirren 1 1419 60.17% 11.77%
11 1892-09-03 50.59 Third Lanark 4 1467 28.18% @ Clyde 1 1469 60.05% 11.77%
12 1892-10-01 46.70 @ Renton 4 1461 32.96% Heart of Midlothian 1 1660 55.28% 11.76%
13 1892-08-20 40.92 Heart of Midlothian 4 1548 40.29% @ Third Lanark 1 1457 47.93% 11.79%
14 1893-02-11 40.68 @ Abercorn 4 1317 12.34% Celtic 2 1731 76.11% 11.55%
15 1892-10-08 40.51 Dumbarton 3 1536 20.24% @ Heart of Midlothian 1 1613 68.02% 11.74%
16 1892-11-05 39.74 @ Abercorn 5 1279 53.38% Clyde 1 1330 34.83% 11.78%
17 1893-04-01 39.18 @ Dumbarton 5 1472 53.93% Heart of Midlothian 1 1519 34.29% 11.78%
18 1893-02-04 37.67 @ St. Mirren 4 1413 44.52% Leith Athletic 1 1528 43.70% 11.78%
19 1892-10-01 35.31 @ Third Lanark 8 1515 75.83% Abercorn 0 1339 12.52% 11.65%
20 1893-05-06 31.97 @ Abercorn 5 1413 45.52% Third Lanark 2 1521 42.70% 11.78%
21 1892-11-05 31.72 @ Celtic 5 1686 70.42% Heart of Midlothian 0 1583 17.86% 11.72%
22 1893-03-11 31.11 @ St. Mirren 3 1503 59.01% Renton 0 1510 29.21% 11.77%
23 1892-11-19 29.53 @ Leith Athletic 3 1512 60.64% Dumbarton 0 1505 27.59% 11.77%
24 1892-08-20 28.55 @ Leith Athletic 3 1497 61.64% Clyde 0 1481 26.59% 11.77%
25 1892-09-17 28.55 @ St. Mirren 4 1429 68.32% Abercorn 0 1349 19.94% 11.73%