1891-92 Division One Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Dumbarton

37 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Heart of Midlothian

8.74 points above expected

34 points · 25.26 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Cambuslang

7.18 points below expected

10 points · 17.18 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Dumbarton	22	18	1	3	37	78	27	+51	32.80	+4.20
2	Celtic	22	16	3	3	35	62	21	+41	32.39	+2.61
3	Heart of Midlothian	22	15	4	3	34	65	35	+30	25.26	+8.74
4	Leith Athletic	22	12	1	9	25	51	40	+11	22.63	+2.37
5	Rangers	22	11	2	9	24	59	46	+13	27.31	-3.31
6	Third Lanark	22	8	5	9	21	44	47	-3	19.93	+1.07
7	Renton	22	8	5	9	21	37	43	-6	21.67	-0.67
8	Clyde	22	8	4	10	20	63	61	+2	21.93	-1.93
9	Abercorn	22	6	5	11	17	44	59	-15	18.91	-1.91
10	St. Mirren	22	5	5	12	15	43	60	-17	14.69	+0.31
11	Cambuslang	22	2	6	14	10	21	53	-32	17.18	-7.18
12	Vale of Leven	22	0	5	17	5	24	99	-75	9.29	-4.29

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Celtic	1733	35	32.39	+2.61	81.8%	17	27	30	32	35	38	43
Dumbarton	1718	37	32.80	+4.20	92.1%	19	27	31	33	35	38	44
Heart of Midlothian	1609	34	25.26	+8.74	99.3%	11	19	23	25	28	31	39
Rangers	1540	24	27.31	-3.31	22.7%	13	21	25	27	30	33	40
Leith Athletic	1494	25	22.63	+2.37	77.9%	9	16	20	23	25	29	39
Clyde	1458	20	21.93	-1.93	35.3%	8	16	19	22	25	28	35
Third Lanark	1410	21	19.93	+1.07	66.3%	6	14	17	20	22	26	35
Renton	1407	21	21.67	-0.67	47.7%	8	15	19	22	24	28	37
Abercorn	1381	17	18.91	-1.91	35.7%	6	13	16	19	21	25	33
St. Mirren	1264	15	14.69	+0.31	59.3%	3	9	12	15	17	21	27
Cambuslang	1230	10	17.18	-7.18	3.4%	5	11	15	17	20	23	31
Vale of Leven	1082	5	9.29	-4.29	11.7%	1	4	7	9	11	15	22

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ABE	CAM	CEL	CLY	DUM	HOM	LA	RAN	REN	SM	TL	VOL
Abercorn	—	2-0-0 2.96	0-0-2 1.28	0-1-1 2.44	0-1-1 1.04	0-0-2 2.06	1-0-1 2.24	0-0-2 1.66	0-1-1 2.36	1-1-0 3.41	0-1-1 2.77	2-0-0 4.14
Cambuslang	0-0-2 2.67	—	0-0-2 0.75	0-0-2 2.22	0-0-2 1.35	0-1-1 2.20	0-0-2 1.98	0-0-2 1.47	0-2-0 1.68	0-2-0 3.23	0-1-1 2.19	2-0-0 4.09
Celtic	2-0-0 4.37	2-0-0 4.91	—	1-1-0 3.98	1-0-1 2.61	1-0-1 4.15	1-0-1 4.36	1-1-0 3.25	2-0-0 4.27	2-0-0 4.90	2-0-0 4.60	1-1-0 5.25
Clyde	1-1-0 3.19	2-0-0 3.41	0-1-1 1.66	—	1-0-1 1.14	0-0-2 2.14	0-0-2 2.75	1-0-1 2.18	0-0-2 2.99	2-0-0 4.03	0-1-1 3.29	1-1-0 4.20
Dumbarton	1-1-0 4.61	2-0-0 4.31	1-0-1 3.02	1-0-1 4.50	—	1-0-1 4.24	2-0-0 4.08	2-0-0 3.36	2-0-0 4.40	2-0-0 4.97	2-0-0 4.54	2-0-0 5.16
Heart of Midlothian	2-0-0 3.57	1-1-0 3.44	1-0-1 1.49	2-0-0 3.50	1-0-1 1.40	—	1-1-0 3.55	2-0-0 3.13	2-0-0 3.27	1-1-0 3.75	1-0-1 3.79	1-1-0 4.96
Leith Athletic	1-0-1 3.40	2-0-0 3.66	1-0-1 1.29	2-0-0 2.88	0-0-2 1.55	0-1-1 2.09	—	1-0-1 2.17	0-0-2 3.42	1-0-1 4.11	2-0-0 2.96	2-0-0 4.62
Rangers	2-0-0 3.97	2-0-0 4.17	0-1-1 2.38	1-0-1 3.46	0-0-2 2.28	0-0-2 2.50	1-0-1 3.47	—	2-0-0 3.73	1-0-1 4.15	0-1-1 3.96	2-0-0 4.80
Renton	1-1-0 3.27	0-2-0 3.95	0-0-2 1.37	2-0-0 2.64	0-0-2 1.24	0-0-2 2.36	2-0-0 2.22	0-0-2 1.90	—	1-0-1 4.10	1-1-0 2.95	1-1-0 4.52
St. Mirren	0-1-1 2.23	0-2-0 2.41	0-0-2 0.76	0-0-2 1.60	0-0-2 0.69	0-1-1 1.89	1-0-1 1.53	1-0-1 1.49	1-0-1 1.54	—	1-0-1 2.03	1-1-0 3.90
Third Lanark	1-1-0 2.86	1-1-0 3.44	0-0-2 1.05	1-1-0 2.34	0-0-2 1.11	1-0-1 1.85	0-0-2 2.67	1-1-0 1.68	0-1-1 2.68	1-0-1 3.60	—	2-0-0 4.52
Vale of Leven	0-0-2 1.50	0-0-2 1.55	0-1-1 0.44	0-1-1 1.44	0-0-2 0.53	0-1-1 0.70	0-0-2 1.03	0-0-2 0.85	0-1-1 1.12	0-1-1 1.74	0-0-2 1.12	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.79	+5.1
Allowed	0.79	-4.3
Differential	0.95	+2.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	0.76%	3.03%	3.03%	3.79%	0.76%	2.65%	14.02%
1	3.03%	7.58%	5.30%	6.82%	1.52%	2.27%	26.52%
2	3.03%	5.30%	6.06%	4.17%	1.52%	4.17%	24.24%
3	3.79%	6.82%	4.17%	3.03%	0.38%	1.52%	19.70%
4	0.76%	1.52%	1.52%	0.38%	—	0.38%	4.55%
5+	2.65%	2.27%	4.17%	1.52%	0.38%	—	10.98%
Total	14.02%	26.52%	24.24%	19.70%	4.55%	10.98%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.24	2.24	+0.00
SD	1.92	1.92	2.96
CV	0.86	0.86	—
Max	10	10	+10
Min	0	0	-10

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
1	—	13.64%	9.09%	9.09%	—	4.55%	36.36%
2	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%	27.27%
3	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
Total	13.64%	22.73%	13.64%	27.27%	4.55%	18.18%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	2.68	-0.68
SD	1.27	2.21	2.59
CV	0.64	0.82	—
Max	6	8	+3
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	31.82%
1	9.09%	18.18%	4.55%	18.18%	—	—	50.00%
2	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	9.09%
3	—	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	22.73%	22.73%	27.27%	4.55%	13.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.95	2.41	-1.45
SD	0.90	1.59	1.68
CV	0.94	0.66	—
Max	3	6	+1
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
1	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
2	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
3	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
4	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
Total	31.82%	45.45%	18.18%	4.55%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.82	0.95	+1.86
SD	1.82	0.84	1.96
CV	0.64	0.88	—
Max	7	3	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
1	—	—	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	22.73%
2	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	9.09%	22.73%
3	—	—	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	13.64%
4	—	13.64%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
5+	—	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
Total	9.09%	22.73%	22.73%	31.82%	—	13.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.86	2.77	+0.09
SD	2.38	2.51	3.44
CV	0.83	0.90	—
Max	10	10	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
1	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	18.18%
2	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	—	—	22.73%
3	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	13.64%	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	—	36.36%
Total	27.27%	36.36%	27.27%	4.55%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.55	1.23	+2.32
SD	2.48	1.07	2.92
CV	0.70	0.87	—
Max	8	4	+8
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	18.18%
2	4.55%	9.09%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
3	4.55%	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
Total	22.73%	27.27%	27.27%	18.18%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.95	1.59	+1.36
SD	2.10	1.30	2.44
CV	0.71	0.82	—
Max	10	5	+7
Min	1	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	13.64%
1	4.55%	—	—	13.64%	—	—	18.18%
2	—	9.09%	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	27.27%
3	13.64%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	31.82%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	22.73%	22.73%	18.18%	31.82%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.32	1.82	+0.50
SD	2.06	1.50	3.13
CV	0.89	0.83	—
Max	10	6	+10
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	13.64%
1	4.55%	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	22.73%
2	—	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	22.73%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
5+	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	22.73%
Total	13.64%	27.27%	18.18%	31.82%	—	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.68	2.09	+0.59
SD	2.17	1.54	3.22
CV	0.81	0.74	—
Max	7	6	+7
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	13.64%
1	4.55%	18.18%	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	40.91%
2	—	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	18.18%
3	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	13.64%	31.82%	22.73%	13.64%	13.64%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.68	1.95	-0.27
SD	1.25	1.43	2.10
CV	0.74	0.73	—
Max	5	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
1	—	9.09%	13.64%	—	9.09%	—	31.82%
2	—	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	40.91%
3	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	18.18%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%
Total	—	18.18%	36.36%	9.09%	27.27%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.95	2.73	-0.77
SD	1.21	1.32	1.63
CV	0.62	0.48	—
Max	6	5	+2
Min	0	1	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
1	—	13.64%	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	27.27%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	22.73%
3	—	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	4.55%	27.27%	36.36%	22.73%	—	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	2.14	-0.14
SD	1.95	1.25	2.36
CV	0.98	0.58	—
Max	9	5	+7
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	4.55%	13.64%	—	18.18%	45.45%
1	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	9.09%	18.18%
2	—	—	18.18%	—	—	4.55%	22.73%
3	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	13.64%	27.27%	13.64%	—	45.45%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.09	4.50	-3.41
SD	1.23	3.05	3.10
CV	1.13	0.68	—
Max	4	10	+0
Min	0	1	-10

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Heart of Midlothian	34	25.26	+8.74
2	Dumbarton	37	32.80	+4.20
3	Celtic	35	32.39	+2.61
4	Leith Athletic	25	22.63	+2.37
5	Third Lanark	21	19.93	+1.07

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Cambuslang	10	17.18	-7.18
2	Vale of Leven	5	9.29	-4.29
3	Rangers	24	27.31	-3.31
4	Clyde	20	21.93	-1.93
5	Abercorn	17	18.91	-1.91

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Celtic	11	Aug 22 – Feb 27	1 in 139
2	Heart of Midlothian	7	Nov 15 – Apr 23	1 in 65
3	Dumbarton	12	Oct 3 – Apr 23	1 in 62
4	Third Lanark	3	Aug 29 – Sep 12	1 in 43
5	Rangers	6	Dec 15 – Apr 16	1 in 22

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Rangers	3	Aug 22 – Sep 5	1 in 66
2	Third Lanark	3	Nov 15 – Dec 15	1 in 62
3	Vale of Leven	9	Aug 15 – Oct 10	1 in 39
4	Cambuslang	7	Dec 15 – Mar 26	1 in 30
5	Leith Athletic	2	Aug 22 – Aug 29	1 in 12

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Heart of Midlothian	10	Oct 24 – Apr 30	1 in 18
2	Vale of Leven	2	Apr 2 – May 7	1 in 17
3	Third Lanark	4	Mar 19 – May 7	1 in 11
4	Celtic	14	Aug 22 – Apr 16	1 in 10
5	St. Mirren	2	Oct 10 – Oct 17	1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Celtic	2	Mar 19 – Apr 2	1 in 21
2	Vale of Leven	22	Aug 15 – May 7	1 in 21
3	Abercorn	6	Oct 17 – Jan 30	1 in 16
4	Renton	4	Apr 9 – May 7	1 in 15
5	Cambuslang	12	Dec 15 – May 5	1 in 15

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Dumbarton	51.87%	33.36%	9.69%	3.29%	1.24%	0.34%	0.13%	0.07%	0.01%	—	—	—
Celtic	40.62%	40.61%	12.87%	3.78%	1.42%	0.49%	0.14%	0.05%	0.02%	—	—	—
Heart of Midlothian	1.96%	6.76%	22.80%	24.07%	17.28%	11.51%	7.59%	4.30%	2.44%	0.98%	0.30%	0.01%
Leith Athletic	0.40%	2.07%	7.71%	14.36%	18.77%	18.13%	14.83%	11.03%	7.22%	3.83%	1.54%	0.11%
Rangers	4.74%	14.16%	32.17%	22.58%	12.21%	7.24%	3.93%	2.02%	0.61%	0.26%	0.08%	—
Third Lanark	0.06%	0.34%	2.22%	5.67%	9.01%	13.18%	15.64%	18.05%	16.92%	11.81%	6.26%	0.84%
Renton	0.19%	1.12%	5.13%	9.80%	14.68%	16.81%	17.01%	13.87%	11.24%	6.96%	2.87%	0.32%
Clyde	0.14%	1.35%	5.82%	11.63%	16.27%	16.38%	16.54%	13.66%	9.56%	5.96%	2.43%	0.26%
Abercorn	0.01%	0.20%	1.19%	3.41%	5.86%	9.18%	12.74%	17.24%	20.35%	17.35%	11.18%	1.29%
St. Mirren	—	—	0.04%	0.16%	0.79%	1.54%	3.56%	6.58%	12.62%	23.68%	39.86%	11.17%
Cambuslang	0.01%	0.03%	0.36%	1.25%	2.45%	5.16%	7.85%	12.85%	17.98%	25.98%	22.29%	3.79%
Vale of Leven	—	—	—	—	0.02%	0.04%	0.04%	0.28%	1.03%	3.19%	13.19%	82.21%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+17.42%

Clear Edge

50.00%17.42%32.58%

Elo Value

Home Edge

132 Elo

0.008 goals per Elo point

061.16400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.63 goals

Home-Tilted

-2+0.46+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.3

Top-Heavy

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

52%

Dumbarton, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.09/gm

Photo Finish

00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.91 * Some Luck: 2.91 to 4.37 * Lucky: 4.37 to 5.83 * Wild Swing: 5.83 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.04 * Close: 1.04 to 1.56 * Off: 1.56 to 2.08 * Way Off: 2.08 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.05 points

Some Luck

03.649

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.83

Pinpoint

01.303

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

99.35%

Heart of Midlothian

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

3.42%

Cambuslang

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.24

Top-Heavy

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

2.10

Strong Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

77%

Clear Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 98%

98%

Dominant

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

43%

Frequent

0%39%100%

Blowouts

Expected

33%

Very Frequent

0%40%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.50

Highly Predictable

00.522

Matchup Imbalance

0.49

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.25

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.58

Some Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

18%

Chalky

0%21%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

16%

As Expected

0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.

Probability calibration

0.18

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.15

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.099

Well Within Noise

00.1350.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Celtic	100%	—
Dumbarton	100%	—
Rangers	99.92%	0.08%
Heart of Midlothian	99.69%	0.31%
Leith Athletic	98.35%	1.65%
Clyde	97.31%	2.69%
Renton	96.81%	3.19%
Third Lanark	92.90%	7.10%
Abercorn	87.53%	12.47%
Cambuslang	73.92%	26.08%
St. Mirren	48.97%	51.03%
Vale of Leven	4.60%	95.40%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1891-08-15	Dumbarton	L 0-2	1444	1606	31.3%	18.4%	50.4%	-21.0	0
1891-08-15	@ Cambuslang	W 2-0	1606	1444	50.4%	18.4%	31.3%	+21.0	2
1891-08-15	Vale of Leven	W 10-3	1441	1265	69.6%	17.9%	12.4%	+17.9	2
1891-08-15	@ Clyde	L 3-10	1265	1441	12.4%	17.9%	69.6%	-17.9	0
1891-08-15	Celtic	W 3-1	1359	1585	23.6%	18.2%	58.1%	+31.1	2
1891-08-15	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-3	1585	1359	58.1%	18.2%	23.6%	-31.1	0
1891-08-15	Rangers	L 1-4	1441	1604	31.1%	18.4%	50.5%	-25.7	0
1891-08-15	@ Renton	W 4-1	1604	1441	50.5%	18.4%	31.1%	+25.6	2
1891-08-15	Leith Athletic	L 0-3	1427	1441	51.3%	18.5%	30.3%	-46.4	0
1891-08-15	@ Third Lanark	W 3-0	1441	1427	30.3%	18.5%	51.3%	+46.4	2
1891-08-22	Rangers	W 3-0	1554	1629	43.1%	18.5%	38.4%	+36.2	2
1891-08-22	@ Celtic	L 0-3	1629	1554	38.4%	18.5%	43.1%	-36.2	2
1891-08-22	Abercorn	W 8-1	1627	1398	72.9%	17.7%	9.4%	+18.9	4
1891-08-22	@ Dumbarton	L 1-8	1398	1627	9.4%	17.7%	72.9%	-18.9	0
1891-08-22	Renton	L 2-3	1488	1415	61.0%	18.3%	20.6%	-17.9	2
1891-08-22	@ Leith Athletic	W 3-2	1415	1488	20.6%	18.3%	61.0%	+17.9	2
1891-08-22	Heart of Midlothian	L 2-5	1314	1390	43.1%	18.5%	38.4%	-29.1	0
1891-08-22	@ St. Mirren	W 5-2	1390	1314	38.4%	18.5%	43.1%	+29.1	4
1891-08-22	Cambuslang	L 0-1	1247	1423	29.4%	18.4%	52.2%	-10.6	0
1891-08-22	@ Vale of Leven	W 1-0	1423	1247	52.2%	18.4%	29.4%	+10.6	2
1891-08-29	Leith Athletic	W 3-2	1379	1470	40.9%	18.5%	40.6%	+12.4	2
1891-08-29	@ Abercorn	L 2-3	1470	1379	40.6%	18.5%	40.9%	-12.4	2
1891-08-29	St. Mirren	D 1-1	1434	1285	67.7%	18.1%	14.2%	-4.3	3
1891-08-29	@ Cambuslang	D 1-1	1285	1434	14.2%	18.1%	67.7%	+4.3	1
1891-08-29	Celtic	L 2-7	1459	1590	35.2%	18.4%	46.4%	-37.6	2
1891-08-29	@ Clyde	W 7-2	1590	1459	46.4%	18.4%	35.2%	+37.6	4
1891-08-29	Dumbarton	W 3-1	1419	1646	23.6%	18.2%	58.2%	+31.1	6
1891-08-29	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-3	1646	1419	58.2%	18.2%	23.6%	-31.1	4
1891-08-29	Third Lanark	L 2-3	1593	1380	71.9%	17.8%	10.3%	-21.2	2
1891-08-29	@ Rangers	W 3-2	1380	1593	10.3%	17.8%	71.9%	+21.2	2
1891-08-29	Vale of Leven	W 3-0	1433	1237	71.0%	17.9%	11.2%	+12.2	4
1891-08-29	@ Renton	L 0-3	1237	1433	11.2%	17.9%	71.0%	-12.2	0
1891-09-05	Heart of Midlothian	D 3-3	1430	1450	50.5%	18.5%	31.0%	-0.9	4
1891-09-05	@ Cambuslang	D 3-3	1450	1430	31.0%	18.5%	50.5%	+0.9	7
1891-09-05	Renton	W 3-0	1628	1446	70.1%	17.9%	12.0%	+13.0	6
1891-09-05	@ Celtic	L 0-3	1446	1628	12.0%	17.9%	70.1%	-13.0	4
1891-09-05	Clyde	W 1-0	1457	1421	57.2%	18.4%	24.4%	+9.0	4
1891-09-05	@ Leith Athletic	L 0-1	1421	1457	24.4%	18.4%	57.2%	-9.0	2
1891-09-05	Dumbarton	L 1-3	1572	1615	47.6%	18.5%	34.0%	-25.8	2
1891-09-05	@ Rangers	W 3-1	1615	1572	34.0%	18.5%	47.6%	+25.9	6
1891-09-05	Third Lanark	L 1-2	1290	1402	37.9%	18.4%	43.6%	-12.3	1
1891-09-05	@ St. Mirren	W 2-1	1402	1290	43.6%	18.4%	37.9%	+12.3	4
1891-09-05	Abercorn	L 0-3	1225	1391	30.6%	18.4%	51.0%	-30.0	0
1891-09-05	@ Vale of Leven	W 3-0	1391	1225	51.0%	18.4%	30.6%	+30.0	4
1891-09-12	Celtic	L 2-5	1421	1641	24.4%	18.2%	57.4%	-18.0	4
1891-09-12	@ Abercorn	W 5-2	1641	1421	57.4%	18.2%	24.4%	+18.0	8
1891-09-12	St. Mirren	W 4-1	1412	1277	66.6%	18.1%	15.2%	+13.7	4
1891-09-12	@ Clyde	L 1-4	1277	1412	15.2%	18.1%	66.6%	-13.7	1
1891-09-12	Leith Athletic	W 6-0	1641	1466	69.5%	18.0%	12.5%	+25.9	8
1891-09-12	@ Dumbarton	L 0-6	1466	1641	12.5%	18.0%	69.5%	-25.9	4
1891-09-12	Renton	W 4-2	1451	1433	55.3%	18.4%	26.3%	+14.1	9
1891-09-12	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 2-4	1433	1451	26.3%	18.4%	55.3%	-14.1	4
1891-09-12	Cambuslang	W 3-1	1414	1429	51.2%	18.5%	30.3%	+17.8	6
1891-09-12	@ Third Lanark	L 1-3	1429	1414	30.3%	18.5%	51.2%	-17.8	4
1891-09-12	Rangers	L 1-6	1195	1546	13.0%	17.7%	69.3%	-18.6	0
1891-09-12	@ Vale of Leven	W 6-1	1546	1195	69.3%	17.7%	13.0%	+18.6	4
1891-09-19	St. Mirren	D 1-1	1403	1264	67.0%	18.1%	14.9%	-4.2	5
1891-09-19	@ Abercorn	D 1-1	1264	1403	14.9%	18.1%	67.0%	+4.2	2
1891-09-19	Heart of Midlothian	W 5-1	1666	1465	71.3%	17.8%	10.9%	+12.9	10
1891-09-19	@ Dumbarton	L 1-5	1465	1666	10.9%	17.8%	71.3%	-12.9	9
1891-09-19	Vale of Leven	W 10-0	1440	1176	74.6%	17.5%	7.9%	+27.0	6
1891-09-19	@ Leith Athletic	L 0-10	1176	1440	7.9%	17.5%	74.6%	-27.0	0
1891-09-21	Abercorn	W 2-1	1452	1399	59.1%	18.4%	22.5%	+7.9	11
1891-09-21	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-2	1399	1452	22.5%	18.4%	59.1%	-7.9	5
1891-09-21	St. Mirren	W 4-2	1467	1268	71.2%	17.8%	11.0%	+6.4	8
1891-09-21	@ Leith Athletic	L 2-4	1268	1467	11.0%	17.8%	71.2%	-6.4	2
1891-09-26	Leith Athletic	L 1-3	1411	1474	44.9%	18.5%	36.7%	-24.6	4
1891-09-26	@ Cambuslang	W 3-1	1474	1411	36.7%	18.5%	44.9%	+24.6	10
1891-09-26	Dumbarton	W 2-0	1659	1679	50.5%	18.5%	31.0%	+20.9	10
1891-09-26	@ Celtic	L 0-2	1679	1659	31.0%	18.5%	50.5%	-20.9	10
1891-09-26	Third Lanark	W 2-0	1460	1432	56.4%	18.4%	25.2%	+17.5	13
1891-09-26	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-2	1432	1460	25.2%	18.4%	56.4%	-17.5	6
1891-09-26	Abercorn	W 6-2	1565	1391	69.5%	18.0%	12.6%	+12.6	6
1891-09-26	@ Rangers	L 2-6	1391	1565	12.6%	18.0%	69.5%	-12.5	5
1891-09-26	Clyde	W 2-1	1418	1426	52.1%	18.4%	29.4%	+10.0	6
1891-09-26	@ Renton	L 1-2	1426	1418	29.4%	18.4%	52.1%	-10.0	4
1891-09-26	Vale of Leven	W 6-4	1261	1149	64.8%	18.2%	17.0%	+8.7	4
1891-09-26	@ St. Mirren	L 4-6	1149	1261	17.0%	18.2%	64.8%	-8.7	0
1891-10-03	Abercorn	L 0-2	1387	1379	54.0%	18.4%	27.5%	-33.5	4
1891-10-03	@ Cambuslang	W 2-0	1379	1387	27.5%	18.4%	54.0%	+33.5	7
1891-10-03	Heart of Midlothian	L 3-10	1416	1477	45.1%	18.5%	36.5%	-55.2	4
1891-10-03	@ Clyde	W 10-3	1477	1416	36.5%	18.5%	45.1%	+55.2	15
1891-10-03	Rangers	W 3-1	1498	1577	42.6%	18.5%	38.9%	+21.8	12
1891-10-03	@ Leith Athletic	L 1-3	1577	1498	38.9%	18.5%	42.6%	-21.8	6
1891-10-03	Celtic	L 1-2	1270	1680	9.7%	17.4%	73.0%	-3.6	4
1891-10-03	@ St. Mirren	W 2-1	1680	1270	73.0%	17.4%	9.7%	+3.6	12
1891-10-03	Renton	D 1-1	1414	1428	51.3%	18.5%	30.2%	-1.6	7
1891-10-03	@ Third Lanark	D 1-1	1428	1414	30.2%	18.5%	51.3%	+1.6	7
1891-10-03	Dumbarton	L 1-2	1140	1659	5.5%	16.6%	77.9%	-2.1	0
1891-10-03	@ Vale of Leven	W 2-1	1659	1140	77.9%	16.6%	5.5%	+2.1	12
1891-10-10	Vale of Leven	W 6-3	1412	1138	75.1%	17.4%	7.5%	+5.6	9
1891-10-10	@ Abercorn	L 3-6	1138	1412	7.5%	17.4%	75.1%	-5.6	0
1891-10-10	St. Mirren	D 2-2	1533	1266	74.7%	17.5%	7.8%	-4.1	16
1891-10-10	@ Heart of Midlothian	D 2-2	1266	1533	7.8%	17.5%	74.7%	+4.1	5
1891-10-10	Leith Athletic	W 3-0	1430	1520	41.0%	18.5%	40.5%	+37.9	9
1891-10-10	@ Renton	L 0-3	1520	1430	40.5%	18.5%	41.0%	-37.9	12
1891-10-10	Rangers	D 2-2	1413	1555	33.7%	18.4%	47.9%	+0.8	8
1891-10-10	@ Third Lanark	D 2-2	1555	1413	47.9%	18.4%	33.7%	-0.8	7
1891-10-17	Heart of Midlothian	W 3-1	1684	1528	68.2%	18.0%	13.8%	+8.8	14
1891-10-17	@ Celtic	L 1-3	1528	1684	13.8%	18.0%	68.2%	-8.8	16
1891-10-17	Third Lanark	W 2-0	1661	1413	73.8%	17.6%	8.6%	+6.5	14
1891-10-17	@ Dumbarton	L 0-2	1413	1661	8.6%	17.6%	73.8%	-6.5	8
1891-10-17	Abercorn	W 3-2	1482	1418	60.3%	18.3%	21.4%	+7.2	14
1891-10-17	@ Leith Athletic	L 2-3	1418	1482	21.4%	18.3%	60.3%	-7.2	9
1891-10-17	Cambuslang	W 2-1	1555	1353	71.3%	17.8%	10.9%	+4.1	9
1891-10-17	@ Rangers	L 1-2	1353	1555	10.9%	17.8%	71.3%	-4.1	4
1891-10-17	Renton	W 2-1	1271	1468	26.9%	18.3%	54.8%	+17.0	7
1891-10-17	@ St. Mirren	L 1-2	1468	1271	54.8%	18.3%	26.9%	-17.0	9
1891-10-17	Clyde	D 2-2	1133	1361	23.5%	18.2%	58.3%	+2.0	1
1891-10-17	@ Vale of Leven	D 2-2	1361	1133	58.3%	18.2%	23.5%	-2.0	5
1891-10-24	Third Lanark	L 2-4	1410	1407	53.5%	18.4%	28.1%	-25.7	9
1891-10-24	@ Abercorn	W 4-2	1407	1410	28.1%	18.4%	53.5%	+25.7	10
1891-10-24	Vale of Leven	W 6-1	1692	1135	83.1%	15.2%	1.6%	+2.3	16
1891-10-24	@ Celtic	L 1-6	1135	1692	1.6%	15.2%	83.1%	-2.3	1
1891-10-24	St. Mirren	W 4-2	1667	1288	79.0%	16.7%	4.3%	+2.5	16
1891-10-24	@ Dumbarton	L 2-4	1288	1667	4.3%	16.7%	79.0%	-2.5	7
1891-10-24	Leith Athletic	W 3-1	1520	1490	56.6%	18.4%	25.0%	+15.0	18
1891-10-24	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-3	1490	1520	25.0%	18.4%	56.6%	-15.0	14
1891-10-24	Clyde	L 1-5	1559	1359	71.2%	17.8%	11.0%	-69.8	9
1891-10-24	@ Rangers	W 5-1	1359	1559	11.0%	17.8%	71.2%	+69.8	7
1891-10-24	Cambuslang	D 1-1	1451	1349	63.9%	18.2%	17.9%	-3.6	10
1891-10-24	@ Renton	D 1-1	1349	1451	17.9%	18.2%	63.9%	+3.6	5
1891-10-31	Dumbarton	L 1-3	1474	1670	27.2%	18.3%	54.5%	-16.1	14
1891-10-31	@ Leith Athletic	W 3-1	1670	1474	54.5%	18.3%	27.2%	+16.1	18
1891-10-31	Heart of Midlothian	D 2-2	1132	1535	10.1%	17.4%	72.5%	+3.8	2
1891-10-31	@ Vale of Leven	D 2-2	1535	1132	72.5%	17.4%	10.1%	-3.8	19
1891-11-15	Renton	D 3-3	1385	1447	44.9%	18.5%	36.6%	-0.4	10
1891-11-15	@ Abercorn	D 3-3	1447	1385	36.6%	18.5%	44.9%	+0.4	11
1891-11-15	Vale of Leven	W 1-0	1353	1136	72.2%	17.8%	10.1%	+4.0	7
1891-11-15	@ Cambuslang	L 0-1	1136	1353	10.1%	17.8%	72.2%	-4.0	2
1891-11-15	Clyde	W 8-2	1686	1429	74.3%	17.5%	8.2%	+11.8	20
1891-11-15	@ Dumbarton	L 2-8	1429	1686	8.2%	17.5%	74.3%	-11.8	7
1891-11-15	Third Lanark	W 3-1	1458	1433	56.1%	18.4%	25.5%	+15.3	16
1891-11-15	@ Leith Athletic	L 1-3	1433	1458	25.5%	18.4%	56.1%	-15.3	10
1891-11-15	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-1	1489	1531	47.7%	18.5%	33.9%	-15.9	9
1891-11-15	@ Rangers	W 1-0	1531	1489	33.9%	18.5%	47.7%	+15.9	21
1891-11-15	Dumbarton	L 1-2	1448	1698	21.3%	18.1%	60.6%	-7.5	11
1891-11-15	@ Renton	W 2-1	1698	1448	60.6%	18.1%	21.3%	+7.5	22
1891-11-15	Third Lanark	W 1-0	1440	1417	55.8%	18.4%	25.8%	+9.5	13
1891-11-15	@ Renton	L 0-1	1417	1440	25.8%	18.4%	55.8%	-9.5	10
1891-11-15	Leith Athletic	W 3-1	1285	1474	27.9%	18.3%	53.8%	+28.9	9
1891-11-15	@ St. Mirren	L 1-3	1474	1285	53.8%	18.3%	27.9%	-28.9	16
1891-11-15	St. Mirren	D 2-2	1132	1314	28.7%	18.3%	52.9%	+1.4	3
1891-11-15	@ Vale of Leven	D 2-2	1314	1132	52.9%	18.3%	28.7%	-1.4	10
1891-12-15	Clyde	D 3-3	1384	1417	48.9%	18.5%	32.6%	-0.8	11
1891-12-15	@ Abercorn	D 3-3	1417	1384	32.6%	18.5%	48.9%	+0.8	8
1891-12-15	St. Mirren	W 2-1	1695	1313	79.1%	16.7%	4.2%	+1.6	18
1891-12-15	@ Celtic	L 1-2	1313	1695	4.2%	16.7%	79.1%	-1.6	10
1891-12-15	Cambuslang	W 2-0	1418	1357	60.0%	18.3%	21.7%	+15.4	10
1891-12-15	@ Clyde	L 0-2	1357	1418	21.7%	18.3%	60.0%	-15.4	7
1891-12-15	Renton	W 2-1	1705	1450	74.2%	17.5%	8.2%	+3.1	24
1891-12-15	@ Dumbarton	L 1-2	1450	1705	8.2%	17.5%	74.2%	-3.1	13
1891-12-15	Vale of Leven	W 8-0	1708	1133	83.4%	15.1%	1.5%	+4.0	26
1891-12-15	@ Dumbarton	L 0-8	1133	1708	1.5%	15.1%	83.4%	-4.0	3
1891-12-15	Cambuslang	W 1-0	1547	1341	71.5%	17.8%	10.7%	+4.2	23
1891-12-15	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-1	1341	1547	10.7%	17.8%	71.5%	-4.2	7
1891-12-15	Abercorn	W 2-1	1447	1384	60.1%	18.3%	21.5%	+7.6	15
1891-12-15	@ Renton	L 1-2	1384	1447	21.5%	18.3%	60.1%	-7.6	11
1891-12-15	Rangers	L 3-4	1311	1473	31.2%	18.4%	50.4%	-9.7	10
1891-12-15	@ St. Mirren	W 4-3	1473	1311	50.4%	18.4%	31.2%	+9.7	11
1891-12-15	Dumbarton	L 2-5	1408	1712	16.4%	17.9%	65.7%	-12.6	10
1891-12-15	@ Third Lanark	W 5-2	1712	1408	65.7%	17.9%	16.4%	+12.6	28
1891-12-15	Vale of Leven	W 9-2	1395	1129	74.7%	17.5%	7.8%	+12.9	12
1891-12-15	@ Third Lanark	L 2-9	1129	1395	7.8%	17.5%	74.7%	-12.9	3
1892-01-23	Clyde	L 3-5	1337	1433	40.1%	18.5%	41.4%	-18.9	7
1892-01-23	@ Cambuslang	W 5-3	1433	1337	41.4%	18.5%	40.1%	+18.9	12
1892-01-23	St. Mirren	L 2-3	1408	1301	64.3%	18.2%	17.5%	-18.8	12
1892-01-23	@ Third Lanark	W 3-2	1301	1408	17.5%	18.2%	64.3%	+18.8	12
1892-01-30	Abercorn	W 7-2	1452	1376	61.4%	18.3%	20.3%	+23.4	14
1892-01-30	@ Clyde	L 2-7	1376	1452	20.3%	18.3%	61.4%	-23.4	11
1892-01-30	Leith Athletic	L 0-3	1116	1445	14.6%	17.8%	67.6%	-15.5	3
1892-01-30	@ Vale of Leven	W 3-0	1445	1116	67.6%	17.8%	14.6%	+15.5	18
1892-01-30	Celtic	L 0-4	1318	1696	11.4%	17.5%	71.1%	-16.0	7
1892-01-30	@ Cambuslang	W 4-0	1696	1318	71.1%	17.5%	11.4%	+16.0	20
1892-02-06	Cambuslang	W 3-1	1353	1302	58.9%	18.4%	22.8%	+13.9	13
1892-02-06	@ Abercorn	L 1-3	1302	1353	22.8%	18.4%	58.9%	-13.9	7
1892-02-06	Third Lanark	L 0-2	1101	1389	17.8%	18.0%	64.3%	-12.8	3
1892-02-06	@ Vale of Leven	W 2-0	1389	1101	64.3%	18.0%	17.8%	+12.8	14
1892-02-13	Vale of Leven	W 7-0	1483	1088	79.4%	16.6%	3.9%	+9.7	13
1892-02-13	@ Rangers	L 0-7	1088	1483	3.9%	16.6%	79.4%	-9.7	3
1892-02-13	Clyde	W 3-2	1402	1475	43.4%	18.5%	38.2%	+11.8	16
1892-02-13	@ Third Lanark	L 2-3	1475	1402	38.2%	18.5%	43.4%	-11.8	14
1892-02-27	Rangers	L 0-6	1288	1492	26.1%	18.3%	55.6%	-50.0	7
1892-02-27	@ Cambuslang	W 6-0	1492	1288	55.6%	18.3%	26.1%	+50.0	15
1892-02-27	Third Lanark	W 5-1	1712	1414	76.1%	17.3%	6.6%	+7.9	22
1892-02-27	@ Celtic	L 1-5	1414	1712	6.6%	17.3%	76.1%	-7.9	16
1892-02-27	Abercorn	L 0-3	1320	1366	47.1%	18.5%	34.4%	-43.0	12
1892-02-27	@ St. Mirren	W 3-0	1366	1320	34.4%	18.5%	47.1%	+43.0	15
1892-03-12	Heart of Midlothian	L 1-3	1409	1551	33.9%	18.4%	47.7%	-19.5	15
1892-03-12	@ Abercorn	W 3-1	1551	1409	47.7%	18.4%	33.9%	+19.5	25
1892-03-12	St. Mirren	W 5-2	1454	1277	69.7%	17.9%	12.4%	+9.8	17
1892-03-12	@ Renton	L 2-5	1277	1454	12.4%	17.9%	69.7%	-9.8	12
1892-03-19	Clyde	D 0-0	1720	1464	74.3%	17.5%	8.2%	-6.1	23
1892-03-19	@ Celtic	D 0-0	1464	1720	8.2%	17.5%	74.3%	+6.1	15
1892-03-19	Vale of Leven	W 7-0	1570	1078	81.8%	15.8%	2.3%	+5.7	27
1892-03-19	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-7	1078	1570	2.3%	15.8%	81.8%	-5.7	3
1892-03-19	Renton	W 5-2	1542	1464	61.7%	18.3%	20.0%	+15.2	17
1892-03-19	@ Rangers	L 2-5	1464	1542	20.0%	18.3%	61.7%	-15.2	17
1892-03-19	Dumbarton	L 2-3	1267	1725	7.6%	17.1%	75.4%	-2.7	12
1892-03-19	@ St. Mirren	W 3-2	1725	1267	75.4%	17.1%	7.6%	+2.7	30
1892-03-19	Abercorn	D 1-1	1406	1390	55.0%	18.4%	26.6%	-2.1	17
1892-03-19	@ Third Lanark	D 1-1	1390	1406	26.6%	18.4%	55.0%	+2.2	16
1892-03-26	Rangers	L 0-1	1392	1557	30.8%	18.4%	50.8%	-11.0	16
1892-03-26	@ Abercorn	W 1-0	1557	1392	50.8%	18.4%	30.8%	+11.0	19
1892-03-26	Cambuslang	W 5-2	1728	1238	81.8%	15.8%	2.4%	+1.9	32
1892-03-26	@ Dumbarton	L 2-5	1238	1728	2.4%	15.8%	81.8%	-1.9	7
1892-04-02	Clyde	L 1-4	1265	1470	26.0%	18.3%	55.7%	-22.0	12
1892-04-02	@ St. Mirren	W 4-1	1470	1265	55.7%	18.3%	26.0%	+22.0	17
1892-04-02	Celtic	D 2-2	1073	1714	2.8%	15.6%	81.6%	+4.9	4
1892-04-02	@ Vale of Leven	D 2-2	1714	1073	81.6%	15.6%	2.8%	-4.9	24
1892-04-04	Renton	L 1-3	1492	1449	58.0%	18.4%	23.6%	-31.1	17
1892-04-04	@ Clyde	W 3-1	1449	1492	23.6%	18.4%	58.0%	+31.1	19
1892-04-09	Third Lanark	D 1-1	1236	1404	30.5%	18.4%	51.1%	+1.5	8
1892-04-09	@ Cambuslang	D 1-1	1404	1236	51.1%	18.4%	30.5%	-1.5	18
1892-04-09	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-3	1480	1576	40.1%	18.5%	41.4%	-37.5	19
1892-04-09	@ Renton	W 3-0	1576	1480	41.4%	18.5%	40.1%	+37.5	29
1892-04-16	Cambuslang	W 3-1	1709	1238	81.4%	16.0%	2.6%	+1.7	26
1892-04-16	@ Celtic	L 1-3	1238	1709	2.6%	16.0%	81.4%	-1.7	8
1892-04-16	Clyde	W 2-1	1614	1461	68.0%	18.1%	14.0%	+5.1	31
1892-04-16	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-2	1461	1614	14.0%	18.1%	68.0%	-5.1	17
1892-04-16	Leith Athletic	W 3-2	1568	1460	64.4%	18.2%	17.4%	+6.0	21
1892-04-16	@ Rangers	L 2-3	1460	1568	17.4%	18.2%	64.4%	-6.0	18
1892-04-18	Celtic	W 2-1	1454	1711	20.6%	18.1%	61.3%	+18.9	20
1892-04-18	@ Leith Athletic	L 1-2	1711	1454	61.3%	18.1%	20.6%	-18.9	26
1892-04-23	Third Lanark	D 3-3	1456	1402	59.1%	18.4%	22.5%	-1.8	18
1892-04-23	@ Clyde	D 3-3	1402	1456	22.5%	18.4%	59.1%	+1.8	19
1892-04-23	Celtic	W 1-0	1729	1692	57.4%	18.4%	24.2%	+9.0	34
1892-04-23	@ Dumbarton	L 0-1	1692	1729	24.2%	18.4%	57.4%	-9.0	26
1892-04-23	Rangers	W 3-2	1619	1574	58.2%	18.4%	23.4%	+7.8	33
1892-04-23	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 2-3	1574	1619	23.4%	18.4%	58.2%	-7.8	21
1892-04-23	Cambuslang	D 2-2	1243	1236	53.9%	18.4%	27.7%	-1.5	13
1892-04-23	@ St. Mirren	D 2-2	1236	1243	27.7%	18.4%	53.9%	+1.5	9
1892-04-30	Renton	D 1-1	1238	1442	26.1%	18.3%	55.7%	+2.3	10
1892-04-30	@ Cambuslang	D 1-1	1442	1238	55.7%	18.3%	26.1%	-2.2	20
1892-04-30	Abercorn	W 3-1	1683	1381	76.3%	17.3%	6.5%	+4.3	28
1892-04-30	@ Celtic	L 1-3	1381	1683	6.5%	17.3%	76.3%	-4.3	16
1892-04-30	Dumbarton	W 4-1	1454	1738	18.1%	18.0%	63.9%	+48.3	20
1892-04-30	@ Clyde	L 1-4	1738	1454	63.9%	18.0%	18.1%	-48.3	34
1892-04-30	Heart of Midlothian	D 2-2	1473	1627	32.3%	18.4%	49.3%	+0.9	21
1892-04-30	@ Leith Athletic	D 2-2	1627	1473	49.3%	18.4%	32.3%	-0.9	34
1892-05-04	Rangers	W 6-0	1690	1567	65.7%	18.2%	16.1%	+32.7	36
1892-05-04	@ Dumbarton	L 0-6	1567	1690	16.1%	18.2%	65.7%	-32.7	21
1892-05-05	Cambuslang	W 3-0	1474	1240	73.1%	17.7%	9.2%	+10.1	23
1892-05-05	@ Leith Athletic	L 0-3	1240	1474	9.2%	17.7%	73.1%	-10.1	10
1892-05-05	Celtic	L 0-4	1440	1687	21.5%	18.1%	60.3%	-28.8	20
1892-05-05	@ Renton	W 4-0	1687	1440	60.3%	18.1%	21.5%	+28.8	30
1892-05-07	Dumbarton	D 1-1	1377	1723	13.4%	17.7%	68.9%	+4.5	17
1892-05-07	@ Abercorn	D 1-1	1723	1377	68.9%	17.7%	13.4%	-4.5	37
1892-05-07	Leith Athletic	L 1-2	1502	1484	55.2%	18.4%	26.4%	-17.1	20
1892-05-07	@ Clyde	W 2-1	1484	1502	26.4%	18.4%	55.2%	+17.1	25
1892-05-07	Celtic	D 1-1	1534	1716	28.7%	18.3%	53.0%	+1.8	22
1892-05-07	@ Rangers	D 1-1	1716	1534	53.0%	18.3%	28.7%	-1.8	31
1892-05-07	Heart of Midlothian	W 3-2	1404	1626	24.2%	18.2%	57.6%	+16.9	21
1892-05-07	@ Third Lanark	L 2-3	1626	1404	57.6%	18.2%	24.2%	-16.9	34
1892-05-07	Renton	D 1-1	1078	1411	14.2%	17.8%	68.0%	+4.3	5
1892-05-07	@ Vale of Leven	D 1-1	1411	1078	68.0%	17.8%	14.2%	-4.3	21
1892-05-10	St. Mirren	L 2-3	1536	1241	76.0%	17.3%	6.7%	-22.4	22
1892-05-10	@ Rangers	W 3-2	1241	1536	6.7%	17.3%	76.0%	+22.4	15
1892-05-14	Leith Athletic	W 2-0	1714	1501	72.0%	17.8%	10.3%	+7.7	33
1892-05-14	@ Celtic	L 0-2	1501	1714	10.3%	17.8%	72.0%	-7.7	25
1892-05-21	Rangers	L 1-3	1485	1513	49.5%	18.5%	32.0%	-26.8	20
1892-05-21	@ Clyde	W 3-1	1513	1485	32.0%	18.5%	49.5%	+26.8	24
1892-05-24	Celtic	L 1-3	1421	1722	16.7%	17.9%	65.4%	-10.5	21
1892-05-24	@ Third Lanark	W 3-1	1722	1421	65.4%	17.9%	16.7%	+10.4	35

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1892-05-10	6.71%	St. Mirren	1241	3	@ Rangers	1536	2
2	1891-08-29	10.30%	Third Lanark	1380	3	@ Rangers	1593	2
3	1891-10-24	11.01%	Clyde	1359	5	@ Rangers	1559	1
4	1892-01-23	17.50%	St. Mirren	1301	3	@ Third Lanark	1408	2
5	1892-04-30	18.07%	@ Clyde	1454	4	Dumbarton	1738	1
6	1892-04-18	20.61%	@ Leith Athletic	1454	2	Celtic	1711	1
7	1891-08-22	20.65%	Renton	1415	3	@ Leith Athletic	1488	2
8	1892-04-04	23.59%	Renton	1449	3	@ Clyde	1492	1
9	1891-08-29	23.61%	@ Heart of Midlothian	1419	3	Dumbarton	1646	1
10	1891-08-15	23.65%	@ Heart of Midlothian	1359	3	Celtic	1585	1
11	1892-05-07	24.16%	@ Third Lanark	1404	3	Heart of Midlothian	1626	2
12	1892-05-07	26.39%	Leith Athletic	1484	2	@ Clyde	1502	1
13	1891-10-17	26.91%	@ St. Mirren	1271	2	Renton	1468	1
14	1891-10-03	27.54%	Abercorn	1379	2	@ Cambuslang	1387	0
15	1891-11-15	27.93%	@ St. Mirren	1285	3	Leith Athletic	1474	1
16	1891-10-24	28.05%	Third Lanark	1407	4	@ Abercorn	1410	2
17	1891-08-15	30.27%	Leith Athletic	1441	3	@ Third Lanark	1427	0
18	1892-05-21	32.05%	Rangers	1513	3	@ Clyde	1485	1
19	1891-11-15	33.85%	Heart of Midlothian	1531	1	@ Rangers	1489	0
20	1891-09-05	33.96%	Dumbarton	1615	3	@ Rangers	1572	1
21	1892-02-27	34.43%	Abercorn	1366	3	@ St. Mirren	1320	0
22	1891-10-03	36.47%	Heart of Midlothian	1477	10	@ Clyde	1416	3
23	1891-09-26	36.66%	Leith Athletic	1474	3	@ Cambuslang	1411	1
24	1891-08-22	38.44%	Heart of Midlothian	1390	5	@ St. Mirren	1314	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1891-10-24	69.81	Clyde	5	1359	11.01%	@ Rangers	1	1559	71.15%	17.84%
2	1891-10-03	55.16	Heart of Midlothian	10	1477	36.47%	@ Clyde	3	1416	45.05%	18.48%
3	1892-02-27	50.01	Rangers	6	1492	55.60%	@ Cambuslang	0	1288	26.11%	18.28%
4	1892-04-30	48.28	@ Clyde	4	1454	18.07%	Dumbarton	1	1738	63.93%	18.01%
5	1891-08-15	46.38	Leith Athletic	3	1441	30.27%	@ Third Lanark	0	1427	51.27%	18.46%
6	1892-02-27	43.00	Abercorn	3	1366	34.43%	@ St. Mirren	0	1320	47.10%	18.48%
7	1891-10-10	37.89	@ Renton	3	1430	40.99%	Leith Athletic	0	1520	40.54%	18.47%
8	1891-08-29	37.62	Celtic	7	1590	46.36%	@ Clyde	2	1459	35.21%	18.43%
9	1892-04-09	37.55	Heart of Midlothian	3	1576	41.43%	@ Renton	0	1480	40.11%	18.47%
10	1891-08-22	36.22	@ Celtic	3	1554	43.15%	Rangers	0	1629	38.37%	18.48%
11	1891-10-03	33.52	Abercorn	2	1379	27.54%	@ Cambuslang	0	1387	54.03%	18.43%
12	1892-05-04	32.70	@ Dumbarton	6	1690	65.71%	Rangers	0	1567	16.14%	18.16%
13	1891-08-29	31.10	@ Heart of Midlothian	3	1419	23.61%	Dumbarton	1	1646	58.17%	18.22%
14	1891-08-15	31.09	@ Heart of Midlothian	3	1359	23.65%	Celtic	1	1585	58.14%	18.22%
15	1892-04-04	31.08	Renton	3	1449	23.59%	@ Clyde	1	1492	58.04%	18.37%
16	1891-09-05	29.97	Abercorn	3	1391	51.02%	@ Vale of Leven	0	1225	30.61%	18.37%
17	1891-08-22	29.10	Heart of Midlothian	5	1390	38.44%	@ St. Mirren	2	1314	43.09%	18.48%
18	1891-11-15	28.86	@ St. Mirren	3	1285	27.93%	Leith Athletic	1	1474	53.75%	18.32%
19	1892-05-05	28.82	Celtic	4	1687	60.34%	@ Renton	0	1440	21.51%	18.15%
20	1891-09-19	27.03	@ Leith Athletic	10	1440	74.63%	Vale of Leven	0	1176	7.87%	17.50%
21	1892-05-21	26.78	Rangers	3	1513	32.05%	@ Clyde	1	1485	49.48%	18.47%
22	1891-09-12	25.87	@ Dumbarton	6	1641	69.52%	Leith Athletic	0	1466	12.52%	17.96%
23	1891-09-05	25.86	Dumbarton	3	1615	33.96%	@ Rangers	1	1572	47.56%	18.47%
24	1891-10-24	25.73	Third Lanark	4	1407	28.05%	@ Abercorn	2	1410	53.51%	18.44%
25	1891-08-15	25.65	Rangers	4	1604	50.48%	@ Renton	1	1441	31.14%	18.38%