1890-91 Division One Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Dumbarton

29 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Rangers

10.37 points above expected

29 points · 18.63 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

St. Mirren

6.62 points below expected

11 points · 17.62 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Dumbarton	18	13	3	2	29	61	21	+40	18.8	+10.21
2	Rangers	18	13	3	2	29	58	25	+33	18.6	+10.37
3	Celtic	18	11	3	4	25	48	21	+27	14.7	+10.33
4	Cambuslang	18	8	4	6	20	47	42	+5	18.1	+1.90
5	Third Lanark	18	8	3	7	19	38	39	-1	13.9	+5.13
6	Heart of Midlothian	18	6	2	10	14	31	37	-6	17.8	-3.78
7	Abercorn	18	5	2	11	12	36	47	-11	17.5	-5.48
8	St. Mirren	18	5	1	12	11	39	62	-23	17.6	-6.62
9	Vale of Leven	18	5	1	12	11	27	65	-38	17.4	-6.45
10	Cowlairs	18	3	4	11	10	24	50	-26	13.6	-3.60

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Dumbarton	1456	29	18.79	+10.21	99.9%	7	13	16	19	21	24	32
Rangers	1451	29	18.63	+10.37	99.9%	5	13	16	19	21	24	32
Celtic	1448	25	14.67	+10.33	97.6%	1	9	12	15	17	20	27
Cambuslang	1419	20	18.10	+1.90	75.6%	6	12	16	18	20	24	31
Third Lanark	1411	19	13.87	+5.13	68.3%	2	8	12	14	16	20	28
Abercorn	1401	12	17.48	-5.48	7.7%	5	12	15	18	20	23	30
Heart of Midlothian	1401	14	17.78	-3.78	17.9%	4	12	15	18	20	24	30
St. Mirren	1396	11	17.62	-6.62	4.2%	5	12	15	18	20	23	30
Vale of Leven	1386	11	17.45	-6.45	4.2%	5	12	15	17	20	23	29
Cowlairs	1382	10	13.60	-3.60	2.2%	0	8	11	14	16	19	26

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ABE	CAM	CEL	COW	DUM	HOM	RAN	SM	TL	VOL
Abercorn	—	1-0-1 2.78	0-0-2 2.69	1-0-1 2.86	0-0-2 2.70	1-1-0 2.84	0-1-1 2.65	1-0-1 2.81	0-0-2 2.86	1-0-1 2.87
Cambuslang	1-0-1 2.96	—	1-0-1 2.78	1-1-0 2.98	0-1-1 2.72	1-1-0 2.95	0-0-2 2.84	2-0-0 2.90	1-1-0 2.89	1-0-1 2.94
Celtic	2-0-0 3.05	1-0-1 2.96	—	2-0-0 3.08	1-1-0 2.79	2-0-0 2.95	1-1-0 2.80	1-0-1 3.04	0-1-1 2.99	1-0-1 3.11
Cowlairs	1-0-1 2.88	0-1-1 2.75	0-0-2 2.66	—	0-1-1 2.82	0-0-2 2.89	0-1-1 2.68	1-0-1 2.85	0-1-1 2.76	1-0-1 2.87
Dumbarton	2-0-0 3.04	1-1-0 3.02	0-1-1 2.95	1-1-0 2.92	—	2-0-0 3.04	1-0-1 2.87	2-0-0 3.16	2-0-0 2.98	2-0-0 3.02
Heart of Midlothian	0-1-1 2.90	0-1-1 2.79	0-0-2 2.80	2-0-0 2.85	0-0-2 2.70	—	0-0-2 2.82	1-0-1 2.90	1-0-1 2.88	2-0-0 2.88
Rangers	1-1-0 3.09	2-0-0 2.90	0-1-1 2.93	1-1-0 3.05	1-0-1 2.86	2-0-0 2.92	—	2-0-0 2.94	2-0-0 3.02	2-0-0 3.07
St. Mirren	1-0-1 2.93	0-0-2 2.84	1-0-1 2.70	1-0-1 2.89	0-0-2 2.58	1-0-1 2.84	0-0-2 2.80	—	1-0-1 2.84	0-1-1 2.91
Third Lanark	2-0-0 2.88	0-1-1 2.84	1-1-0 2.75	1-1-0 2.98	0-0-2 2.77	1-0-1 2.85	0-0-2 2.72	1-0-1 2.90	—	2-0-0 2.95
Vale of Leven	1-0-1 2.87	1-0-1 2.79	1-0-1 2.63	1-0-1 2.87	0-0-2 2.73	0-0-2 2.86	0-0-2 2.67	1-1-0 2.83	0-0-2 2.79	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	3.89%	2.78%	0.56%	3.89%	2.22%	13.33%
1	3.89%	7.78%	6.11%	3.33%	1.67%	5.00%	27.78%
2	2.78%	6.11%	6.67%	3.33%	3.33%	4.44%	26.67%
3	0.56%	3.33%	3.33%	—	—	1.11%	8.33%
4	3.89%	1.67%	3.33%	—	—	0.56%	9.44%
5+	2.22%	5.00%	4.44%	1.11%	0.56%	1.11%	14.44%
Total	13.33%	27.78%	26.67%	8.33%	9.44%	14.44%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.27
Mean allowed	2.27
StdDev scored	1.87
StdDev allowed	1.87
Mean total goals/game	4.54
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.142
Sample size (games)	90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
1	11.11%	11.11%	16.67%	—	—	11.11%	50.00%
2	—	—	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
Total	16.67%	16.67%	27.78%	—	16.67%	22.22%	100%

Abercorn — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.00
Mean allowed	2.61
StdDev scored	1.88
StdDev allowed	2.06
Mean total goals/game	4.61
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.152
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	11.11%	38.89%
3	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
5+	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	11.11%	16.67%	50.00%	—	—	22.22%	100%

Cambuslang — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.61
Mean allowed	2.33
StdDev scored	1.82
StdDev allowed	1.75
Mean total goals/game	4.94
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.142
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	33.33%
2	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
Total	33.33%	27.78%	27.78%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Celtic — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.67
Mean allowed	1.17
StdDev scored	2.28
StdDev allowed	1.04
Mean total goals/game	3.83
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.173
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	38.89%
1	—	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	33.33%
2	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
Total	—	22.22%	38.89%	5.56%	11.11%	22.22%	100%

Cowlairs — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.33
Mean allowed	2.78
StdDev scored	1.81
StdDev allowed	1.63
Mean total goals/game	4.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.186
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
2	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
3	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	5.56%	27.78%	—	—	—	—	33.33%
Total	16.67%	61.11%	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	100%

Dumbarton — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.39
Mean allowed	1.17
StdDev scored	1.65
StdDev allowed	0.92
Mean total goals/game	4.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.354
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	38.89%
1	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	22.22%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	38.89%	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Heart of Midlothian — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.72
Mean allowed	2.06
StdDev scored	2.14
StdDev allowed	1.59
Mean total goals/game	3.78
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.307
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	27.78%
2	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
5+	—	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
Total	27.78%	27.78%	33.33%	5.56%	—	5.56%	100%

Rangers — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.22
Mean allowed	1.39
StdDev scored	2.18
StdDev allowed	1.29
Mean total goals/game	4.61
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.176
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%	22.22%
2	—	—	—	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	38.89%
3	—	—	11.11%	—	—	11.11%	22.22%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	5.56%	11.11%	22.22%	16.67%	11.11%	33.33%	100%

St. Mirren — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.17
Mean allowed	3.44
StdDev scored	1.20
StdDev allowed	2.12
Mean total goals/game	5.61
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.062
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	33.33%
2	—	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	27.78%	22.22%	16.67%	16.67%	5.56%	100%

Third Lanark — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.11
Mean allowed	2.17
StdDev scored	1.37
StdDev allowed	1.47
Mean total goals/game	4.28
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.480
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	38.89%
2	—	16.67%	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	33.33%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	—	27.78%	11.11%	16.67%	22.22%	22.22%	100%

Vale of Leven — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.50
Mean allowed	3.61
StdDev scored	1.20
StdDev allowed	2.59
Mean total goals/game	5.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.350
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Rangers	29	18.6	+10.37
2	Celtic	25	14.7	+10.33
3	Dumbarton	29	18.8	+10.21
4	Third Lanark	19	13.9	+5.13
5	Cambuslang	20	18.1	+1.90

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	St. Mirren	11	17.6	-6.62
2	Vale of Leven	11	17.4	-6.45
3	Abercorn	12	17.5	-5.48
4	Heart of Midlothian	14	17.8	-3.78
5	Cowlairs	10	13.6	-3.60

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dumbarton	8	Aug 23 – Jan 24	1 in 1,734
2	Rangers	4	Feb 21 – Mar 14	1 in 39
3	Celtic	4	Apr 29 – May 12	1 in 38
4	Third Lanark	4	Sep 13 – Feb 21	1 in 17
5	Cambuslang	3	Sep 13 – Jan 17	1 in 10

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Abercorn	7	Aug 30 – Dec 27	1 in 1,182
2	Third Lanark	5	Mar 7 – Apr 4	1 in 65
3	Cowlairs	4	Mar 7 – Mar 28	1 in 38
4	St. Mirren	6	Oct 25 – Mar 7	1 in 33
5	Heart of Midlothian	5	Apr 11 – May 2	1 in 21

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Rangers	13	Oct 4 – Apr 25	1 in 3,852
2	Dumbarton	14	Aug 16 – Mar 28	1 in 1,102
3	Third Lanark	6	Apr 11 – May 6	1 in 48
4	Celtic	6	Apr 11 – May 12	1 in 18
5	Cambuslang	5	Feb 28 – Apr 4	1 in 17

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Abercorn	7	Aug 30 – Dec 27	1 in 115
2	St. Mirren	8	Oct 4 – Mar 7	1 in 33
3	Third Lanark	7	Feb 28 – Apr 11	1 in 26
4	Heart of Midlothian	6	Mar 28 – May 2	1 in 20
5	Vale of Leven	4	Oct 4 – Jan 17	1 in 12

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Dumbarton	21.95%	16.49%	14.13%	11.57%	10.04%	8.36%	6.91%	5.22%	3.24%	2.09%
Rangers	19.61%	16.12%	14.33%	11.84%	10.34%	9.01%	7.42%	5.26%	4.04%	2.03%
Celtic	2.48%	4.63%	5.95%	7.61%	8.79%	11.36%	12.68%	14.57%	16.07%	15.86%
Cambuslang	14.09%	13.75%	13.55%	12.50%	10.80%	10.39%	8.83%	7.76%	4.98%	3.35%
Third Lanark	1.34%	2.80%	3.89%	5.41%	7.22%	8.91%	11.86%	14.66%	19.94%	23.97%
Heart of Midlothian	11.63%	12.23%	12.06%	11.91%	11.58%	10.82%	9.55%	8.67%	7.18%	4.37%
Abercorn	9.45%	11.37%	11.43%	11.81%	11.93%	10.71%	10.77%	9.70%	7.64%	5.19%
St. Mirren	9.93%	10.90%	10.76%	12.11%	11.26%	11.27%	10.87%	9.56%	8.01%	5.33%
Vale of Leven	8.47%	9.84%	10.50%	10.89%	12.15%	11.72%	10.65%	10.18%	9.02%	6.58%
Cowlairs	1.05%	1.87%	3.40%	4.35%	5.89%	7.45%	10.46%	14.42%	19.88%	31.23%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Rangers	98.0%	2.0%
Dumbarton	97.9%	2.1%
Cambuslang	96.7%	3.4%
Heart of Midlothian	95.6%	4.4%
Abercorn	94.8%	5.2%
St. Mirren	94.7%	5.3%
Vale of Leven	93.4%	6.6%
Celtic	84.1%	15.9%
Third Lanark	76.0%	24.0%
Cowlairs	68.8%	31.2%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1890-08-16	Vale of Leven	W 8-2	1415	1415	65.2%	13.0%	21.7%	+2.9	3
1890-08-16	@ Cambuslang	L 2-8	1415	1415	21.7%	13.0%	65.2%	-3.0	0
1890-08-16	Cowlairs	D 1-1	1415	1415	65.2%	13.0%	21.7%	-0.4	1
1890-08-16	@ Dumbarton	D 1-1	1415	1415	21.7%	13.0%	65.2%	+0.4	1
1890-08-16	Heart of Midlothian	W 5-2	1415	1415	65.2%	13.0%	21.7%	+1.6	3
1890-08-16	@ Rangers	L 2-5	1415	1415	21.7%	13.0%	65.2%	-1.7	0
1890-08-23	Rangers	L 2-6	1418	1417	65.4%	13.0%	21.6%	-5.7	3
1890-08-23	@ Cambuslang	W 6-2	1417	1418	21.6%	13.0%	65.4%	+5.7	6
1890-08-23	Vale of Leven	W 3-2	1416	1412	65.6%	13.0%	21.4%	+0.7	4
1890-08-23	@ Cowlairs	L 2-3	1412	1416	21.4%	13.0%	65.6%	-0.7	0
1890-08-23	Celtic	L 0-5	1414	1415	65.1%	13.1%	21.9%	-9.9	0
1890-08-23	@ Heart of Midlothian	W 5-0	1415	1414	21.9%	13.1%	65.1%	+9.9	3
1890-08-23	Dumbarton	L 1-3	1415	1415	65.3%	13.0%	21.7%	-3.7	0
1890-08-23	@ Third Lanark	W 3-1	1415	1415	21.7%	13.0%	65.3%	+3.7	4
1890-08-30	Cambuslang	W 5-2	1425	1412	66.6%	12.9%	20.6%	+1.6	6
1890-08-30	@ Celtic	L 2-5	1412	1425	20.6%	12.9%	66.6%	-1.6	3
1890-08-30	Heart of Midlothian	W 3-1	1418	1404	66.8%	12.8%	20.4%	+1.3	7
1890-08-30	@ Dumbarton	L 1-3	1404	1418	20.4%	12.8%	66.8%	-1.3	0
1890-08-30	Cowlairs	W 5-2	1415	1416	65.1%	13.0%	21.8%	+1.7	3
1890-08-30	@ St. Mirren	L 2-5	1416	1415	21.8%	13.0%	65.1%	-1.7	4
1890-08-30	Abercorn	W 2-1	1411	1415	64.8%	13.1%	22.1%	+0.8	3
1890-08-30	@ Vale of Leven	L 1-2	1415	1411	22.1%	13.1%	64.8%	-0.8	0
1890-09-13	St. Mirren	W 3-2	1411	1417	64.6%	13.1%	22.3%	+0.8	6
1890-09-13	@ Cambuslang	L 2-3	1417	1411	22.3%	13.1%	64.6%	-0.8	3
1890-09-13	Rangers	W 5-1	1420	1423	64.9%	13.1%	22.0%	+2.5	10
1890-09-13	@ Dumbarton	L 1-5	1423	1420	22.0%	13.1%	64.9%	-2.5	6
1890-09-13	Cowlairs	W 4-0	1402	1415	63.9%	13.2%	22.9%	+3.1	3
1890-09-13	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-4	1415	1402	22.9%	13.2%	63.9%	-3.1	4
1890-09-13	Celtic	W 2-1	1411	1427	63.6%	13.2%	23.2%	+0.8	3
1890-09-13	@ Third Lanark	L 1-2	1427	1411	23.2%	13.2%	63.6%	-0.8	6
1890-09-20	Abercorn	W 4-2	1416	1414	65.4%	13.0%	21.6%	+1.2	6
1890-09-20	@ St. Mirren	L 2-4	1414	1416	21.6%	13.0%	65.4%	-1.2	0
1890-10-04	Third Lanark	L 2-4	1413	1412	65.3%	13.0%	21.6%	-3.3	0
1890-10-04	@ Abercorn	W 4-2	1412	1413	21.6%	13.0%	65.3%	+3.3	6
1890-10-04	St. Mirren	W 8-2	1420	1417	65.5%	13.0%	21.5%	+2.9	9
1890-10-04	@ Rangers	L 2-8	1417	1420	21.5%	13.0%	65.5%	-2.9	6
1890-10-04	Dumbarton	L 1-3	1412	1422	64.2%	13.2%	22.7%	-3.6	3
1890-10-04	@ Vale of Leven	W 3-1	1422	1412	22.7%	13.2%	64.2%	+3.6	13
1890-10-11	Abercorn	W 5-1	1426	1410	66.9%	12.8%	20.3%	+2.3	16
1890-10-11	@ Dumbarton	L 1-5	1410	1426	20.3%	12.8%	66.9%	-2.3	0
1890-10-11	Vale of Leven	D 1-1	1414	1409	65.8%	13.0%	21.2%	-0.4	7
1890-10-11	@ St. Mirren	D 1-1	1409	1414	21.2%	13.0%	65.8%	+0.4	4
1890-10-18	Cowlairs	D 1-1	1423	1411	66.5%	12.9%	20.7%	-0.4	10
1890-10-18	@ Rangers	D 1-1	1411	1423	20.7%	12.9%	66.5%	+0.4	5
1890-10-25	Celtic	L 1-5	1408	1426	63.2%	13.2%	23.5%	-6.5	0
1890-10-25	@ Abercorn	W 5-1	1426	1408	23.5%	13.2%	63.2%	+6.5	9
1890-10-25	Dumbarton	L 1-6	1412	1428	63.5%	13.2%	23.3%	-8.0	5
1890-10-25	@ Cowlairs	W 6-1	1428	1412	23.3%	13.2%	63.5%	+8.0	19
1890-10-25	Vale of Leven	W 8-1	1405	1409	64.9%	13.1%	22.1%	+4.2	6
1890-10-25	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-8	1409	1405	22.1%	13.1%	64.9%	-4.2	4
1890-10-25	St. Mirren	W 5-3	1416	1414	65.4%	13.0%	21.6%	+1.1	9
1890-10-25	@ Third Lanark	L 3-5	1414	1416	21.6%	13.0%	65.4%	-1.1	7
1890-12-06	Cambuslang	L 2-5	1401	1412	64.1%	13.2%	22.7%	-4.4	0
1890-12-06	@ Abercorn	W 5-2	1412	1401	22.7%	13.2%	64.1%	+4.4	9
1890-12-27	Dumbarton	L 1-2	1397	1436	60.8%	13.5%	25.7%	-2.0	0
1890-12-27	@ Abercorn	W 2-1	1436	1397	25.7%	13.5%	60.8%	+2.0	22
1891-01-17	Cowlairs	W 4-0	1416	1404	66.5%	12.9%	20.6%	+2.8	12
1891-01-17	@ Cambuslang	L 0-4	1404	1416	20.6%	12.9%	66.5%	-2.8	5
1891-01-17	Rangers	L 1-3	1405	1423	63.3%	13.2%	23.5%	-3.6	4
1891-01-17	@ Vale of Leven	W 3-1	1423	1405	23.5%	13.2%	63.3%	+3.6	13
1891-01-24	St. Mirren	W 5-1	1395	1413	63.3%	13.2%	23.5%	+2.6	3
1891-01-24	@ Abercorn	L 1-5	1413	1395	23.5%	13.2%	63.3%	-2.6	7
1891-01-24	Cambuslang	W 5-0	1438	1419	67.3%	12.8%	20.0%	+3.4	25
1891-01-24	@ Dumbarton	L 0-5	1419	1438	20.0%	12.8%	67.3%	-3.3	12
1891-01-24	Rangers	L 0-1	1410	1426	63.4%	13.2%	23.3%	-2.2	6
1891-01-24	@ Heart of Midlothian	W 1-0	1426	1410	23.3%	13.2%	63.4%	+2.2	16
1891-01-24	Celtic	W 3-1	1401	1432	61.8%	13.4%	24.8%	+1.5	7
1891-01-24	@ Vale of Leven	L 1-3	1432	1401	24.8%	13.4%	61.8%	-1.5	9
1891-02-07	Rangers	D 1-1	1397	1428	61.8%	13.4%	24.8%	-0.3	4
1891-02-07	@ Abercorn	D 1-1	1428	1397	24.8%	13.4%	61.8%	+0.3	17
1891-02-07	St. Mirren	W 3-2	1431	1410	67.4%	12.7%	19.9%	+0.7	12
1891-02-07	@ Celtic	L 2-3	1410	1431	19.9%	12.7%	67.4%	-0.7	7
1891-02-07	Cowlairs	W 2-1	1403	1401	65.4%	13.0%	21.6%	+0.8	10
1891-02-07	@ Vale of Leven	L 1-2	1401	1403	21.6%	13.0%	65.4%	-0.8	5
1891-02-14	Cambuslang	D 2-2	1407	1415	64.4%	13.1%	22.5%	-0.3	7
1891-02-14	@ Heart of Midlothian	D 2-2	1415	1407	22.5%	13.1%	64.4%	+0.3	13
1891-02-21	Celtic	D 2-2	1441	1431	66.3%	12.9%	20.8%	-0.3	26
1891-02-21	@ Dumbarton	D 2-2	1431	1441	20.8%	12.9%	66.3%	+0.3	13
1891-02-21	St. Mirren	W 1-0	1407	1410	65.0%	13.1%	21.9%	+0.8	10
1891-02-21	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-1	1410	1407	21.9%	13.1%	65.0%	-0.8	7
1891-02-21	Cambuslang	W 2-1	1429	1416	66.6%	12.8%	20.5%	+0.7	20
1891-02-21	@ Rangers	L 1-2	1416	1429	20.5%	12.8%	66.6%	-0.7	13
1891-02-21	Vale of Leven	W 4-1	1417	1404	66.6%	12.8%	20.5%	+1.8	12
1891-02-21	@ Third Lanark	L 1-4	1404	1417	20.5%	12.8%	66.6%	-1.8	10
1891-02-28	Third Lanark	D 2-2	1415	1419	64.9%	13.1%	22.1%	-0.3	14
1891-02-28	@ Cambuslang	D 2-2	1419	1415	22.1%	13.1%	64.9%	+0.3	13
1891-02-28	Heart of Midlothian	W 1-0	1432	1408	67.7%	12.7%	19.6%	+0.8	16
1891-02-28	@ Celtic	L 0-1	1408	1432	19.6%	12.7%	67.7%	-0.8	10
1891-02-28	Abercorn	W 7-5	1400	1397	65.6%	13.0%	21.4%	+1.1	8
1891-02-28	@ Cowlairs	L 5-7	1397	1400	21.4%	13.0%	65.6%	-1.1	4
1891-02-28	Vale of Leven	W 4-0	1441	1402	69.3%	12.4%	18.3%	+2.5	29
1891-02-28	@ Dumbarton	L 0-4	1402	1441	18.3%	12.4%	69.3%	-2.5	10
1891-02-28	Rangers	L 3-7	1409	1429	63.0%	13.3%	23.8%	-5.0	7
1891-02-28	@ St. Mirren	W 7-3	1429	1409	23.8%	13.3%	63.0%	+5.0	23
1891-03-07	Vale of Leven	W 6-0	1396	1399	64.9%	13.1%	22.1%	+4.4	7
1891-03-07	@ Abercorn	L 0-6	1399	1396	22.1%	13.1%	64.9%	-4.4	10
1891-03-07	Celtic	W 3-1	1415	1432	63.3%	13.2%	23.5%	+1.5	17
1891-03-07	@ Cambuslang	L 1-3	1432	1415	23.5%	13.2%	63.3%	-1.5	16
1891-03-07	Heart of Midlothian	L 1-2	1401	1407	64.6%	13.1%	22.3%	-2.1	8
1891-03-07	@ Cowlairs	W 2-1	1407	1401	22.3%	13.1%	64.6%	+2.1	13
1891-03-07	St. Mirren	W 5-1	1444	1404	69.3%	12.4%	18.2%	+2.1	32
1891-03-07	@ Dumbarton	L 1-5	1404	1444	18.2%	12.4%	69.3%	-2.1	7
1891-03-07	Rangers	L 0-4	1419	1434	63.5%	13.2%	23.2%	-7.8	13
1891-03-07	@ Third Lanark	W 4-0	1434	1419	23.2%	13.2%	63.5%	+7.8	26
1891-03-14	Cowlairs	W 2-0	1431	1399	68.5%	12.6%	18.9%	+1.4	19
1891-03-14	@ Celtic	L 0-2	1399	1431	18.9%	12.6%	68.5%	-1.4	8
1891-03-14	Abercorn	W 2-0	1442	1400	69.5%	12.4%	18.1%	+1.3	29
1891-03-14	@ Rangers	L 0-2	1400	1442	18.1%	12.4%	69.5%	-1.3	7
1891-03-14	Third Lanark	W 3-2	1402	1411	64.2%	13.1%	22.6%	+0.8	10
1891-03-14	@ St. Mirren	L 2-3	1411	1402	22.6%	13.1%	64.2%	-0.8	13
1891-03-21	Cowlairs	W 1-0	1399	1398	65.4%	13.0%	21.6%	+0.8	10
1891-03-21	@ Abercorn	L 0-1	1398	1399	21.6%	13.0%	65.4%	-0.8	8
1891-03-21	Dumbarton	D 2-2	1416	1446	62.0%	13.4%	24.7%	-0.2	18
1891-03-21	@ Cambuslang	D 2-2	1446	1416	24.7%	13.4%	62.0%	+0.2	33
1891-03-21	Rangers	D 2-2	1432	1444	64.0%	13.2%	22.8%	-0.3	20
1891-03-21	@ Celtic	D 2-2	1444	1432	22.8%	13.2%	64.0%	+0.3	30
1891-03-21	Third Lanark	W 4-1	1409	1410	65.2%	13.0%	21.8%	+1.9	16
1891-03-21	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-4	1410	1409	21.8%	13.0%	65.2%	-1.9	13
1891-03-21	St. Mirren	W 5-2	1395	1402	64.4%	13.1%	22.4%	+1.7	13
1891-03-21	@ Vale of Leven	L 2-5	1402	1395	22.4%	13.1%	64.4%	-1.7	10
1891-03-28	Rangers	L 0-2	1397	1444	60.0%	13.5%	26.5%	-3.9	8
1891-03-28	@ Cowlairs	W 2-0	1444	1397	26.5%	13.5%	60.0%	+3.9	33
1891-03-28	Third Lanark	W 5-1	1446	1408	69.1%	12.5%	18.4%	+2.1	36
1891-03-28	@ Dumbarton	L 1-5	1408	1446	18.4%	12.5%	69.1%	-2.1	13
1891-03-28	Abercorn	D 1-1	1411	1400	66.5%	12.9%	20.7%	-0.4	17
1891-03-28	@ Heart of Midlothian	D 1-1	1400	1411	20.7%	12.9%	66.5%	+0.4	11
1891-03-28	Cambuslang	L 2-3	1401	1416	63.6%	13.2%	23.2%	-2.0	10
1891-03-28	@ St. Mirren	W 3-2	1416	1401	23.2%	13.2%	63.6%	+2.0	21
1891-04-04	Vale of Leven	W 4-0	1448	1397	70.4%	12.2%	17.3%	+2.4	36
1891-04-04	@ Rangers	L 0-4	1397	1448	17.3%	12.2%	70.4%	-2.4	13
1891-04-04	Celtic	W 1-0	1399	1432	61.5%	13.4%	25.1%	+1.0	13
1891-04-04	@ St. Mirren	L 0-1	1432	1399	25.1%	13.4%	61.5%	-0.9	20
1891-04-04	Cambuslang	L 1-2	1406	1418	64.0%	13.2%	22.9%	-2.1	13
1891-04-04	@ Third Lanark	W 2-1	1418	1406	22.9%	13.2%	64.0%	+2.1	24
1891-04-11	Abercorn	L 4-5	1420	1400	67.3%	12.8%	19.9%	-2.0	24
1891-04-11	@ Cambuslang	W 5-4	1400	1420	19.9%	12.8%	67.3%	+2.0	14
1891-04-11	Dumbarton	W 1-0	1431	1448	63.4%	13.2%	23.4%	+0.9	23
1891-04-11	@ Celtic	L 0-1	1448	1431	23.4%	13.2%	63.4%	-0.9	36
1891-04-11	Third Lanark	D 2-2	1393	1404	64.1%	13.2%	22.8%	-0.3	9
1891-04-11	@ Cowlairs	D 2-2	1404	1393	22.8%	13.2%	64.1%	+0.3	14
1891-04-11	Heart of Midlothian	W 3-2	1400	1411	64.0%	13.2%	22.8%	+0.8	16
1891-04-11	@ St. Mirren	L 2-3	1411	1400	22.8%	13.2%	64.0%	-0.8	17
1891-04-18	Cambuslang	D 1-1	1393	1418	62.5%	13.3%	24.2%	-0.3	10
1891-04-18	@ Cowlairs	D 1-1	1418	1393	24.2%	13.3%	62.5%	+0.3	25
1891-04-18	Heart of Midlothian	W 4-0	1404	1410	64.6%	13.1%	22.3%	+3.0	17
1891-04-18	@ Third Lanark	L 0-4	1410	1404	22.3%	13.1%	64.6%	-3.0	17
1891-04-20	Dumbarton	L 0-4	1407	1447	60.8%	13.5%	25.8%	-7.5	17
1891-04-20	@ Heart of Midlothian	W 4-0	1447	1407	25.8%	13.5%	60.8%	+7.5	39
1891-04-25	Heart of Midlothian	W 1-0	1402	1400	65.5%	13.0%	21.5%	+0.8	17
1891-04-25	@ Abercorn	L 0-1	1400	1402	21.5%	13.0%	65.5%	-0.8	17
1891-04-25	Third Lanark	D 1-1	1432	1407	67.8%	12.7%	19.5%	-0.4	24
1891-04-25	@ Celtic	D 1-1	1407	1432	19.5%	12.7%	67.8%	+0.4	18
1891-04-25	St. Mirren	W 4-2	1393	1400	64.4%	13.1%	22.5%	+1.2	13
1891-04-25	@ Cowlairs	L 2-4	1400	1393	22.5%	13.1%	64.4%	-1.2	16
1891-04-25	Dumbarton	W 4-2	1450	1455	64.7%	13.1%	22.2%	+1.2	39
1891-04-25	@ Rangers	L 2-4	1455	1450	22.2%	13.1%	64.7%	-1.2	39
1891-04-25	Cambuslang	W 2-1	1394	1418	62.6%	13.3%	24.1%	+0.9	16
1891-04-25	@ Vale of Leven	L 1-2	1418	1394	24.1%	13.3%	62.6%	-0.9	25
1891-04-28	Abercorn	W 2-1	1408	1403	65.8%	13.0%	21.3%	+0.8	21
1891-04-28	@ Third Lanark	L 1-2	1403	1408	21.3%	13.0%	65.8%	-0.8	17
1891-04-29	Celtic	L 0-5	1394	1432	61.0%	13.4%	25.6%	-9.3	13
1891-04-29	@ Cowlairs	W 5-0	1432	1394	25.6%	13.4%	61.0%	+9.3	27
1891-05-02	Heart of Midlothian	W 2-0	1417	1399	67.2%	12.8%	20.0%	+1.4	28
1891-05-02	@ Cambuslang	L 0-2	1399	1417	20.0%	12.8%	67.2%	-1.4	17
1891-05-02	Celtic	L 1-2	1451	1441	66.3%	12.9%	20.8%	-2.1	39
1891-05-02	@ Rangers	W 2-1	1441	1451	20.8%	12.9%	66.3%	+2.1	30
1891-05-02	Dumbarton	L 2-4	1399	1453	59.1%	13.6%	27.4%	-3.0	16
1891-05-02	@ St. Mirren	W 4-2	1453	1399	27.4%	13.6%	59.1%	+3.0	42
1891-05-02	Third Lanark	L 1-2	1395	1409	63.8%	13.2%	23.0%	-2.1	16
1891-05-02	@ Vale of Leven	W 2-1	1409	1395	23.0%	13.2%	63.8%	+2.1	24
1891-05-05	Vale of Leven	W 9-1	1443	1393	70.3%	12.3%	17.4%	+3.8	33
1891-05-05	@ Celtic	L 1-9	1393	1443	17.4%	12.3%	70.3%	-3.8	16
1891-05-06	Cowlairs	W 3-0	1411	1385	68.0%	12.7%	19.4%	+2.0	27
1891-05-06	@ Third Lanark	L 0-3	1385	1411	19.4%	12.7%	68.0%	-2.0	13
1891-05-09	Third Lanark	W 4-1	1449	1413	69.0%	12.5%	18.5%	+1.6	42
1891-05-09	@ Rangers	L 1-4	1413	1449	18.5%	12.5%	69.0%	-1.6	27
1891-05-09	Heart of Midlothian	L 2-4	1389	1397	64.4%	13.1%	22.5%	-3.2	16
1891-05-09	@ Vale of Leven	W 4-2	1397	1389	22.5%	13.1%	64.4%	+3.2	20
1891-05-12	Abercorn	W 2-0	1447	1402	69.8%	12.4%	17.9%	+1.3	36
1891-05-12	@ Celtic	L 0-2	1402	1447	17.9%	12.4%	69.8%	-1.3	17

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1891-04-11	19.93%	Abercorn	1400	5	@ Cambuslang	1420	4
2	1891-05-02	20.77%	Celtic	1441	2	@ Rangers	1451	1
3	1890-08-23	21.61%	Rangers	1417	6	@ Cambuslang	1418	2
4	1890-10-04	21.65%	Third Lanark	1412	4	@ Abercorn	1413	2
5	1890-08-23	21.70%	Dumbarton	1415	3	@ Third Lanark	1415	1
6	1890-08-23	21.89%	Celtic	1415	5	@ Heart of Midlothian	1414	0
7	1891-03-07	22.29%	Heart of Midlothian	1407	2	@ Cowlairs	1401	1
8	1891-05-09	22.50%	Heart of Midlothian	1397	4	@ Vale of Leven	1389	2
9	1890-10-04	22.69%	Dumbarton	1422	3	@ Vale of Leven	1412	1
10	1890-12-06	22.74%	Cambuslang	1412	5	@ Abercorn	1401	2
11	1891-04-04	22.86%	Cambuslang	1418	2	@ Third Lanark	1406	1
12	1891-05-02	23.03%	Third Lanark	1409	2	@ Vale of Leven	1395	1
13	1891-03-28	23.22%	Cambuslang	1416	3	@ St. Mirren	1401	2
14	1891-03-07	23.24%	Rangers	1434	4	@ Third Lanark	1419	0
15	1890-10-25	23.31%	Dumbarton	1428	6	@ Cowlairs	1412	1
16	1891-01-24	23.33%	Rangers	1426	1	@ Heart of Midlothian	1410	0
17	1891-01-17	23.46%	Rangers	1423	3	@ Vale of Leven	1405	1
18	1890-10-25	23.51%	Celtic	1426	5	@ Abercorn	1408	1
19	1891-02-28	23.76%	Rangers	1429	7	@ St. Mirren	1409	3
20	1891-04-29	25.55%	Celtic	1432	5	@ Cowlairs	1394	0
21	1890-12-27	25.73%	Dumbarton	1436	2	@ Abercorn	1397	1
22	1891-04-20	25.79%	Dumbarton	1447	4	@ Heart of Midlothian	1407	0
23	1891-03-28	26.52%	Rangers	1444	2	@ Cowlairs	1397	0
24	1891-05-02	27.37%	Dumbarton	1453	4	@ St. Mirren	1399	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1890-08-23	9.89	Celtic	5	1415	21.89%	@ Heart of Midlothian	0	1414	65.07%
2	1891-04-29	9.31	Celtic	5	1432	25.55%	@ Cowlairs	0	1394	61.01%
3	1890-10-25	8.00	Dumbarton	6	1428	23.31%	@ Cowlairs	1	1412	63.47%
4	1891-03-07	7.85	Rangers	4	1434	23.24%	@ Third Lanark	0	1419	63.54%
5	1891-04-20	7.52	Dumbarton	4	1447	25.79%	@ Heart of Midlothian	0	1407	60.75%
6	1890-10-25	6.52	Celtic	5	1426	23.51%	@ Abercorn	1	1408	63.25%
7	1890-08-23	5.70	Rangers	6	1417	21.61%	@ Cambuslang	2	1418	65.38%
8	1891-02-28	5.02	Rangers	7	1429	23.76%	@ St. Mirren	3	1409	62.97%
9	1890-12-06	4.43	Cambuslang	5	1412	22.74%	@ Abercorn	2	1401	64.10%
10	1891-03-07	4.38	@ Abercorn	6	1396	64.88%	Vale of Leven	0	1399	22.05%
11	1890-10-25	4.18	@ Heart of Midlothian	8	1405	64.86%	Vale of Leven	1	1409	22.07%
12	1891-03-28	3.91	Rangers	2	1444	26.52%	@ Cowlairs	0	1397	59.97%
13	1891-05-05	3.76	@ Celtic	9	1443	70.31%	Vale of Leven	1	1393	17.42%
14	1890-08-23	3.68	Dumbarton	3	1415	21.70%	@ Third Lanark	1	1415	65.28%
15	1890-10-04	3.62	Dumbarton	3	1422	22.69%	@ Vale of Leven	1	1412	64.16%
16	1891-01-17	3.57	Rangers	3	1423	23.46%	@ Vale of Leven	1	1405	63.31%
17	1891-01-24	3.35	@ Dumbarton	5	1438	67.27%	Cambuslang	0	1419	19.97%
18	1890-10-04	3.29	Third Lanark	4	1412	21.65%	@ Abercorn	2	1413	65.34%
19	1891-05-09	3.24	Heart of Midlothian	4	1397	22.50%	@ Vale of Leven	2	1389	64.37%
20	1890-09-13	3.11	@ Heart of Midlothian	4	1402	63.91%	Cowlairs	0	1415	22.91%
21	1891-04-18	3.03	@ Third Lanark	4	1404	64.62%	Heart of Midlothian	0	1410	22.28%
22	1891-05-02	2.99	Dumbarton	4	1453	27.37%	@ St. Mirren	2	1399	59.06%
23	1890-08-16	2.95	@ Cambuslang	8	1415	65.24%	Vale of Leven	2	1415	21.73%
24	1890-10-04	2.92	@ Rangers	8	1420	65.54%	St. Mirren	2	1417	21.47%
25	1891-01-17	2.81	@ Cambuslang	4	1416	66.53%	Cowlairs	0	1404	20.61%