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1890-91 Division One Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Dumbarton

29 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Celtic

6.22 points above expected

25 points · 18.78 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

St. Mirren

3.27 points below expected

11 points · 14.27 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Dumbarton 18 13 3 2 29 61 21 +40 24.95 +4.05
2 Rangers 18 13 3 2 29 58 25 +33 24.36 +4.64
3 Celtic 18 11 3 4 25 48 21 +27 18.78 +6.22
4 Cambuslang 18 8 4 6 20 47 42 +5 19.51 +0.49
5 Third Lanark 18 8 3 7 19 38 39 -1 13.00 +6.00
6 Heart of Midlothian 18 6 2 10 14 31 37 -6 16.40 -2.40
7 Abercorn 18 5 2 11 12 36 47 -11 13.99 -1.99
8 St. Mirren 18 5 1 12 11 39 62 -23 14.27 -3.27
9 Vale of Leven 18 5 1 12 11 27 65 -38 13.56 -2.56
10 Cowlairs 18 3 4 11 10 24 50 -26 9.17 +0.83

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rangers 1714 29 24.36 +4.64 95.1% 12 19 22 24 27 29 34
Dumbarton 1707 29 24.95 +4.05 93.2% 11 20 23 25 27 30 35
Celtic 1646 25 18.78 +6.22 80.2% 7 13 17 19 21 24 30
Cambuslang 1448 20 19.51 +0.49 60.6% 7 14 17 20 22 25 31
Third Lanark 1418 19 13.00 +6.00 76.8% 1 7 11 13 15 18 28
Abercorn 1368 12 13.99 -1.99 32.7% 4 9 12 14 16 19 25
Heart of Midlothian 1304 14 16.40 -2.40 28.9% 3 11 14 16 19 22 30
St. Mirren 1232 11 14.27 -3.27 21.1% 2 9 12 14 17 20 26
Vale of Leven 1175 11 13.56 -2.56 26.8% 3 8 11 14 16 19 25
Cowlairs 1140 10 9.17 +0.83 21.3% -2 4 7 9 11 15 22

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ABE CAM CEL COW DUM HOM RAN SM TL VOL
Abercorn —
1-0-1
2.09
0-0-2
1.49
1-0-1
3.26
0-0-2
0.87
1-1-0
2.89
0-1-1
1.15
1-0-1
2.06
0-0-2
2.88
1-0-1
2.93
Cambuslang
1-0-1
3.61
 —
1-0-1
1.94
1-1-0
4.27
0-1-1
1.58
1-1-0
3.43
0-0-2
2.60
2-0-0
3.44
1-1-0
3.30
1-0-1
3.72
Celtic
2-0-0
4.21
1-0-1
3.76
 —
2-0-0
4.48
1-1-0
1.85
2-0-0
3.32
1-1-0
1.84
1-0-1
4.51
0-1-1
4.04
1-0-1
4.78
Cowlairs
1-0-1
2.43
0-1-1
1.43
0-0-2
1.22
 —
0-1-1
1.87
0-0-2
3.07
0-1-1
0.80
1-0-1
2.65
0-1-1
2.02
1-0-1
2.83
Dumbarton
2-0-0
4.83
1-1-0
4.11
0-1-1
3.85
1-1-0
3.83
 —
2-0-0
4.56
1-0-1
2.61
2-0-0
4.96
2-0-0
3.37
2-0-0
3.95
Heart of Midlothian
0-1-1
2.80
0-1-1
2.27
0-0-2
2.38
2-0-0
2.62
0-0-2
1.14
 —
0-0-2
2.28
1-0-1
3.60
1-0-1
3.25
2-0-0
2.87
Rangers
1-1-0
4.55
2-0-0
3.10
0-1-1
3.85
1-1-0
4.90
1-0-1
3.08
2-0-0
3.42
 —
2-0-0
4.04
2-0-0
3.85
2-0-0
4.39
St. Mirren
1-0-1
3.63
0-0-2
2.26
1-0-1
1.19
1-0-1
3.04
0-0-2
0.74
1-0-1
2.10
0-0-2
1.66
 —
1-0-1
2.30
0-1-1
3.23
Third Lanark
2-0-0
2.81
0-1-1
2.40
1-1-0
1.66
1-1-0
3.67
0-0-2
2.33
1-0-1
2.45
0-0-2
1.85
1-0-1
3.40
 —
2-0-0
3.62
Vale of Leven
1-0-1
2.76
1-0-1
1.97
1-0-1
0.93
1-0-1
2.87
0-0-2
1.75
0-0-2
2.82
0-0-2
1.31
1-1-0
2.46
0-0-2
2.08
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.86 +5.6
Allowed 0.79 -4.3
Differential 0.93 +2.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.89%2.78%0.56%3.89%2.22%13.33%
13.89%7.78%6.11%3.33%1.67%5.00%27.78%
22.78%6.11%6.67%3.33%3.33%4.44%26.67%
30.56%3.33%3.33%——1.11%8.33%
43.89%1.67%3.33%——0.56%9.44%
5+2.22%5.00%4.44%1.11%0.56%1.11%14.44%
Total13.33%27.78%26.67%8.33%9.44%14.44%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.27 2.27 +0.00
SD 1.87 1.87 2.88
CV 0.82 0.82 —
Max 9 9 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%———11.11%
111.11%11.11%16.67%——11.11%50.00%
2————11.11%5.56%16.67%
3———————
4———————
5+5.56%5.56%——5.56%5.56%22.22%
Total16.67%16.67%27.78%—16.67%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 2.61 -0.61
SD 1.88 2.06 2.57
CV 0.94 0.79 —
Max 6 7 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—————5.56%5.56%
1—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
25.56%5.56%16.67%——11.11%38.89%
3—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
45.56%————5.56%11.11%
5+——11.11%———11.11%
Total11.11%16.67%50.00%——22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.61 2.33 +0.28
SD 1.82 1.75 2.70
CV 0.70 0.75 —
Max 8 6 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
111.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
211.11%5.56%11.11%———27.78%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+11.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
Total33.33%27.78%27.78%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.67 1.17 +1.50
SD 2.28 1.04 2.66
CV 0.85 0.89 —
Max 9 3 +8
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%38.89%
1—16.67%11.11%——5.56%33.33%
2——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+—————5.56%5.56%
Total—22.22%38.89%5.56%11.11%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 2.78 -1.44
SD 1.81 1.63 2.20
CV 1.36 0.59 —
Max 7 6 +2
Min 0 1 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
1—5.56%————5.56%
2—5.56%11.11%—5.56%—22.22%
3—16.67%————16.67%
411.11%—5.56%———16.67%
5+5.56%27.78%————33.33%
Total16.67%61.11%16.67%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.39 1.17 +2.22
SD 1.65 0.92 2.16
CV 0.49 0.79 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%5.56%—11.11%5.56%38.89%
15.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%22.22%
3———————
45.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total11.11%38.89%16.67%11.11%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 2.06 -0.33
SD 2.14 1.59 3.03
CV 1.24 0.77 —
Max 8 5 +7
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
15.56%11.11%5.56%——5.56%27.78%
211.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
3—5.56%————5.56%
411.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
5+——16.67%5.56%——22.22%
Total27.78%27.78%33.33%5.56%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.22 1.39 +1.83
SD 2.18 1.29 2.33
CV 0.68 0.93 —
Max 8 5 +6
Min 1 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
15.56%5.56%———11.11%22.22%
2———16.67%11.11%11.11%38.89%
3——11.11%——11.11%22.22%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total5.56%11.11%22.22%16.67%11.11%33.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 3.44 -1.28
SD 1.20 2.12 2.37
CV 0.55 0.62 —
Max 5 8 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————5.56%—5.56%
1—5.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%33.33%
2—16.67%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
35.56%—————5.56%
45.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
5+———5.56%——5.56%
Total11.11%27.78%22.22%16.67%16.67%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 2.17 -0.06
SD 1.37 1.47 2.44
CV 0.65 0.68 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————11.11%5.56%16.67%
1—5.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%38.89%
2—16.67%—5.56%5.56%5.56%33.33%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total—27.78%11.11%16.67%22.22%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 3.61 -2.11
SD 1.20 2.59 3.22
CV 0.80 0.72 —
Max 5 9 +3
Min 0 1 -8

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Celtic 25 18.78 +6.22
2 Third Lanark 19 13.00 +6.00
3 Rangers 29 24.36 +4.64
4 Dumbarton 29 24.95 +4.05
5 Cowlairs 10 9.17 +0.83

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 St. Mirren 11 14.27 -3.27
2 Vale of Leven 11 13.56 -2.56
3 Heart of Midlothian 14 16.40 -2.40
4 Abercorn 12 13.99 -1.99
5 Cambuslang 20 19.51 +0.49

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dumbarton 8 Aug 23 – Jan 24 1 in 118
2 Celtic 4 Apr 29 – May 12 1 in 27
3 Third Lanark 4 Sep 13 – Feb 21 1 in 27
4 Abercorn 2 Apr 11 – Apr 25 1 in 15
5 St. Mirren 2 Apr 4 – Apr 11 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Abercorn 7 Aug 30 – Dec 27 1 in 125
2 Third Lanark 5 Mar 7 – Apr 4 1 in 24
3 St. Mirren 6 Oct 25 – Mar 7 1 in 14
4 Heart of Midlothian 5 Apr 11 – May 2 1 in 12
5 Cambuslang 2 Aug 23 – Aug 30 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dumbarton 14 Aug 16 – Mar 28 1 in 35
2 Rangers 13 Oct 4 – Apr 25 1 in 33
3 Third Lanark 6 Apr 11 – May 6 1 in 33
4 Abercorn 4 Mar 21 – Apr 25 1 in 18
5 Celtic 6 Apr 11 – May 12 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Abercorn 7 Aug 30 – Dec 27 1 in 17
2 St. Mirren 8 Oct 4 – Mar 7 1 in 16
3 Heart of Midlothian 6 Mar 28 – May 2 1 in 13
4 Third Lanark 7 Feb 28 – Apr 11 1 in 13
5 Cowlairs 6 Aug 30 – Feb 7 1 in 5

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Dumbarton53.31%32.05%9.95%3.16%1.12%0.30%0.07%0.04%——
Rangers38.93%40.57%13.16%4.79%1.66%0.63%0.21%0.04%0.01%—
Celtic2.60%9.88%27.57%25.76%15.65%9.60%4.96%2.63%1.10%0.25%
Cambuslang4.15%12.30%28.99%24.31%14.13%7.76%4.43%2.40%1.24%0.29%
Third Lanark0.05%0.32%1.85%5.21%10.28%14.49%17.72%19.66%19.43%10.99%
Heart of Midlothian0.73%2.94%9.43%17.03%22.08%17.27%13.16%9.38%5.79%2.19%
Abercorn0.06%0.58%2.87%6.74%12.09%17.11%19.16%18.30%15.88%7.21%
St. Mirren0.09%0.86%3.88%7.32%12.70%16.06%18.10%17.10%16.01%7.88%
Vale of Leven0.08%0.49%2.19%5.15%8.99%13.92%16.55%20.36%20.05%12.22%
Cowlairs—0.01%0.11%0.53%1.30%2.86%5.64%10.09%20.49%58.97%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+32.22%
Strong Edge
58.89%14.44%26.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge
144 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0116.09400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.92 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.81+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.3
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
53%
Dumbarton, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.64 * Some Luck: 2.64 to 3.96 * Lucky: 3.96 to 5.28 * Wild Swing: 5.28 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.04 * Close: 1.04 to 1.56 * Off: 1.56 to 2.07 * Way Off: 2.07 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.90 points
Some Luck
03.308
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.303
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
95.05%
Rangers
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
21.08%
St. Mirren
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.22
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.77
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
88%
Wide Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
96%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
42%
Frequent
0%40%100%
Blowouts
Expected
37%
Very Frequent
0%39%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.48
Highly Predictable
00.502
Matchup Imbalance
0.51
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.79
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
N/A
No prior ratings
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Chalky
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
13%
Solid Favorites
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.31 * Well Above Noise: 0.31 and up.
Probability calibration
0.98
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.05
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.147
Well Within Noise
00.1550.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Dumbarton 100% —
Rangers 100% —
Celtic 99.75% 0.25%
Cambuslang 99.71% 0.29%
Heart of Midlothian 97.81% 2.19%
Abercorn 92.79% 7.21%
St. Mirren 92.12% 7.88%
Third Lanark 89.01% 10.99%
Vale of Leven 87.78% 12.22%
Cowlairs 41.03% 58.97%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1890-08-16 Vale of Leven W 8-2 1415 1415 63.9% 15.3% 20.8% +47.2 2
1890-08-16 @ Cambuslang L 2-8 1415 1415 20.8% 15.3% 63.9% -47.2 0
1890-08-16 Cowlairs D 1-1 1415 1415 63.9% 15.3% 20.8% -5.9 1
1890-08-16 @ Dumbarton D 1-1 1415 1415 20.8% 15.3% 63.9% +5.9 1
1890-08-16 Heart of Midlothian W 5-2 1415 1415 63.9% 15.3% 20.8% +26.4 2
1890-08-16 @ Rangers L 2-5 1415 1415 20.8% 15.3% 63.9% -26.4 0
1890-08-23 Rangers L 2-6 1462 1442 65.8% 15.3% 18.9% -93.7 2
1890-08-23 @ Cambuslang W 6-2 1442 1462 18.9% 15.3% 65.8% +93.7 4
1890-08-23 Vale of Leven W 3-2 1421 1368 68.6% 15.2% 16.2% +9.4 3
1890-08-23 @ Cowlairs L 2-3 1368 1421 16.2% 15.2% 68.6% -9.3 0
1890-08-23 Celtic L 0-5 1389 1415 61.2% 15.3% 23.5% -151.7 0
1890-08-23 @ Heart of Midlothian W 5-0 1415 1389 23.5% 15.3% 61.2% +151.7 2
1890-08-23 Dumbarton L 1-3 1415 1409 64.4% 15.3% 20.3% -59.2 0
1890-08-23 @ Third Lanark W 3-1 1409 1415 20.3% 15.3% 64.4% +59.2 3
1890-08-30 Cambuslang W 5-2 1567 1369 77.3% 15.0% 7.7% +10.3 4
1890-08-30 @ Celtic L 2-5 1369 1567 7.7% 15.0% 77.3% -10.3 2
1890-08-30 Heart of Midlothian W 3-1 1468 1237 78.6% 14.9% 6.4% +7.1 5
1890-08-30 @ Dumbarton L 1-3 1237 1468 6.4% 14.9% 78.6% -7.1 0
1890-08-30 Cowlairs W 5-2 1415 1430 62.4% 15.3% 22.4% +28.1 2
1890-08-30 @ St. Mirren L 2-5 1430 1415 22.4% 15.3% 62.4% -28.1 3
1890-08-30 Abercorn W 2-1 1359 1415 57.8% 15.3% 26.9% +15.6 2
1890-08-30 @ Vale of Leven L 1-2 1415 1359 26.9% 15.3% 57.8% -15.6 0
1890-09-13 St. Mirren W 3-2 1358 1443 54.4% 15.3% 30.3% +16.4 4
1890-09-13 @ Cambuslang L 2-3 1443 1358 30.3% 15.3% 54.4% -16.4 2
1890-09-13 Rangers W 5-1 1476 1535 57.5% 15.3% 27.2% +49.9 7
1890-09-13 @ Dumbarton L 1-5 1535 1476 27.2% 15.3% 57.5% -49.9 4
1890-09-13 Cowlairs W 4-0 1230 1402 42.6% 15.3% 42.1% +87.4 2
1890-09-13 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-4 1402 1230 42.1% 15.3% 42.6% -87.4 3
1890-09-13 Celtic W 2-1 1356 1577 35.8% 15.3% 48.9% +26.3 2
1890-09-13 @ Third Lanark L 1-2 1577 1356 48.9% 15.3% 35.8% -26.3 4
1890-09-20 Abercorn W 4-2 1427 1400 66.4% 15.3% 18.3% +17.1 4
1890-09-20 @ St. Mirren L 2-4 1400 1427 18.3% 15.3% 66.4% -17.1 0
1890-10-04 Third Lanark L 2-4 1382 1382 63.9% 15.3% 20.8% -52.5 0
1890-10-04 @ Abercorn W 4-2 1382 1382 20.8% 15.3% 63.9% +52.5 4
1890-10-04 St. Mirren W 8-2 1485 1444 67.6% 15.2% 17.1% +39.4 6
1890-10-04 @ Rangers L 2-8 1444 1485 17.1% 15.2% 67.6% -39.4 4
1890-10-04 Dumbarton L 1-3 1374 1525 45.6% 15.3% 39.1% -42.7 2
1890-10-04 @ Vale of Leven W 3-1 1525 1374 39.1% 15.3% 45.6% +42.7 9
1890-10-11 Abercorn W 5-1 1568 1330 78.9% 14.9% 6.2% +12.5 11
1890-10-11 @ Dumbarton L 1-5 1330 1568 6.2% 14.9% 78.9% -12.5 0
1890-10-11 Vale of Leven D 1-1 1405 1332 70.1% 15.2% 14.7% -7.8 5
1890-10-11 @ St. Mirren D 1-1 1332 1405 14.7% 15.2% 70.1% +7.8 3
1890-10-18 Cowlairs D 1-1 1525 1315 77.8% 15.0% 7.2% -10.2 7
1890-10-18 @ Rangers D 1-1 1315 1525 7.2% 15.0% 77.8% +10.2 4
1890-10-25 Celtic L 1-5 1317 1551 34.1% 15.3% 50.6% -60.8 0
1890-10-25 @ Abercorn W 5-1 1551 1317 50.6% 15.3% 34.1% +60.8 6
1890-10-25 Dumbarton L 1-6 1325 1581 31.3% 15.3% 53.5% -69.0 4
1890-10-25 @ Cowlairs W 6-1 1581 1325 53.5% 15.3% 31.3% +69.0 13
1890-10-25 Vale of Leven W 8-1 1317 1339 61.7% 15.3% 23.1% +72.0 4
1890-10-25 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-8 1339 1317 23.1% 15.3% 61.7% -72.0 3
1890-10-25 St. Mirren W 5-3 1435 1397 67.3% 15.2% 17.4% +15.4 6
1890-10-25 @ Third Lanark L 3-5 1397 1435 17.4% 15.2% 67.3% -15.4 5
1890-12-06 Cambuslang L 2-5 1257 1375 50.1% 15.3% 34.5% -57.0 0
1890-12-06 @ Abercorn W 5-2 1375 1257 34.5% 15.3% 50.1% +57.0 6
1890-12-27 Dumbarton L 1-2 1200 1650 12.8% 15.0% 72.3% -7.9 0
1890-12-27 @ Abercorn W 2-1 1650 1200 72.3% 15.0% 12.8% +7.8 15
1891-01-17 Cowlairs W 4-0 1432 1256 76.3% 15.1% 8.6% +20.7 8
1891-01-17 @ Cambuslang L 0-4 1256 1432 8.6% 15.1% 76.3% -20.7 4
1891-01-17 Rangers L 1-3 1267 1515 32.3% 15.3% 52.4% -31.8 3
1891-01-17 @ Vale of Leven W 3-1 1515 1267 52.4% 15.3% 32.3% +31.8 9
1891-01-24 St. Mirren W 5-1 1192 1381 40.2% 15.3% 44.5% +76.4 2
1891-01-24 @ Abercorn L 1-5 1381 1192 44.5% 15.3% 40.2% -76.4 5
1891-01-24 Cambuslang W 5-0 1658 1452 77.6% 15.0% 7.4% +21.9 17
1891-01-24 @ Dumbarton L 0-5 1452 1658 7.4% 15.0% 77.6% -21.9 8
1891-01-24 Rangers L 0-1 1389 1546 44.8% 15.3% 39.9% -25.8 4
1891-01-24 @ Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 1546 1389 39.9% 15.3% 44.8% +25.8 11
1891-01-24 Celtic W 3-1 1236 1612 18.3% 15.1% 66.6% +61.1 5
1891-01-24 @ Vale of Leven L 1-3 1612 1236 66.6% 15.1% 18.3% -61.1 6
1891-02-07 Rangers D 1-1 1268 1572 25.5% 15.2% 59.3% +4.5 3
1891-02-07 @ Abercorn D 1-1 1572 1268 59.3% 15.2% 25.5% -4.5 12
1891-02-07 St. Mirren W 3-2 1551 1305 79.1% 14.9% 5.9% +3.6 8
1891-02-07 @ Celtic L 2-3 1305 1551 5.9% 14.9% 79.1% -3.6 5
1891-02-07 Cowlairs W 2-1 1297 1235 69.2% 15.2% 15.6% +9.5 7
1891-02-07 @ Vale of Leven L 1-2 1235 1297 15.6% 15.2% 69.2% -9.5 4
1891-02-14 Cambuslang D 2-2 1364 1430 56.6% 15.3% 28.1% -2.8 5
1891-02-14 @ Heart of Midlothian D 2-2 1430 1364 28.1% 15.3% 56.6% +2.8 9
1891-02-21 Celtic D 2-2 1679 1554 73.6% 15.1% 11.2% -6.6 18
1891-02-21 @ Dumbarton D 2-2 1554 1679 11.2% 15.1% 73.6% +6.6 9
1891-02-21 St. Mirren W 1-0 1361 1301 69.1% 15.2% 15.7% +10.2 7
1891-02-21 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-1 1301 1361 15.7% 15.2% 69.1% -10.2 5
1891-02-21 Cambuslang W 2-1 1568 1433 74.1% 15.1% 10.7% +6.7 14
1891-02-21 @ Rangers L 1-2 1433 1568 10.7% 15.1% 74.1% -6.7 9
1891-02-21 Vale of Leven W 4-1 1450 1306 74.7% 15.1% 10.2% +15.7 8
1891-02-21 @ Third Lanark L 1-4 1306 1450 10.2% 15.1% 74.7% -15.6 7
1891-02-28 Third Lanark D 2-2 1427 1466 59.8% 15.3% 24.9% -3.5 10
1891-02-28 @ Cambuslang D 2-2 1466 1427 24.9% 15.3% 59.8% +3.5 9
1891-02-28 Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 1561 1371 77.0% 15.0% 8.0% +5.4 11
1891-02-28 @ Celtic L 0-1 1371 1561 8.0% 15.0% 77.0% -5.4 7
1891-02-28 Abercorn W 7-5 1226 1273 58.9% 15.3% 25.8% +20.8 6
1891-02-28 @ Cowlairs L 5-7 1273 1226 25.8% 15.3% 58.9% -20.8 3
1891-02-28 Vale of Leven W 4-0 1673 1290 82.6% 14.6% 2.8% +6.9 20
1891-02-28 @ Dumbarton L 0-4 1290 1673 2.8% 14.6% 82.6% -6.9 7
1891-02-28 Rangers L 3-7 1291 1574 27.9% 15.2% 56.9% -39.5 5
1891-02-28 @ St. Mirren W 7-3 1574 1291 56.9% 15.2% 27.9% +39.5 16
1891-03-07 Vale of Leven W 6-0 1252 1284 60.6% 15.3% 24.1% +78.6 5
1891-03-07 @ Abercorn L 0-6 1284 1252 24.1% 15.3% 60.6% -78.6 7
1891-03-07 Celtic W 3-1 1423 1566 46.7% 15.3% 38.0% +36.5 12
1891-03-07 @ Cambuslang L 1-3 1566 1423 38.0% 15.3% 46.7% -36.5 11
1891-03-07 Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1247 1366 50.0% 15.3% 34.6% -26.8 6
1891-03-07 @ Cowlairs W 2-1 1366 1247 34.6% 15.3% 50.0% +26.8 9
1891-03-07 St. Mirren W 5-1 1680 1252 83.4% 14.4% 2.2% +4.4 22
1891-03-07 @ Dumbarton L 1-5 1252 1680 2.2% 14.4% 83.4% -4.4 5
1891-03-07 Rangers L 0-4 1469 1614 46.6% 15.3% 38.1% -95.3 9
1891-03-07 @ Third Lanark W 4-0 1614 1469 38.1% 15.3% 46.6% +95.3 18
1891-03-14 Cowlairs W 2-0 1530 1220 81.0% 14.8% 4.2% +5.4 13
1891-03-14 @ Celtic L 0-2 1220 1530 4.2% 14.8% 81.0% -5.4 6
1891-03-14 Abercorn W 2-0 1709 1331 82.5% 14.6% 2.9% +3.7 20
1891-03-14 @ Rangers L 0-2 1331 1709 2.9% 14.6% 82.5% -3.7 5
1891-03-14 Third Lanark W 3-2 1247 1374 49.0% 15.3% 35.7% +19.0 7
1891-03-14 @ St. Mirren L 2-3 1374 1247 35.7% 15.3% 49.0% -19.0 9
1891-03-21 Cowlairs W 1-0 1327 1214 72.8% 15.2% 12.0% +7.9 7
1891-03-21 @ Abercorn L 0-1 1214 1327 12.0% 15.2% 72.8% -7.9 6
1891-03-21 Dumbarton D 2-2 1460 1684 35.3% 15.3% 49.4% +1.4 13
1891-03-21 @ Cambuslang D 2-2 1684 1460 49.4% 15.3% 35.3% -1.4 23
1891-03-21 Rangers D 2-2 1535 1713 41.8% 15.3% 42.9% +0.1 14
1891-03-21 @ Celtic D 2-2 1713 1535 42.9% 15.3% 41.8% -0.1 21
1891-03-21 Third Lanark W 4-1 1392 1355 67.3% 15.2% 17.5% +25.9 11
1891-03-21 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-4 1355 1392 17.5% 15.2% 67.3% -25.9 9
1891-03-21 St. Mirren W 5-2 1205 1266 57.3% 15.3% 27.4% +33.7 9
1891-03-21 @ Vale of Leven L 2-5 1266 1205 27.4% 15.3% 57.3% -33.7 7
1891-03-28 Rangers L 0-2 1207 1713 9.6% 14.9% 75.6% -11.9 6
1891-03-28 @ Cowlairs W 2-0 1713 1207 75.6% 14.9% 9.6% +11.9 23
1891-03-28 Third Lanark W 5-1 1683 1329 82.0% 14.7% 3.3% +6.7 25
1891-03-28 @ Dumbarton L 1-5 1329 1683 3.3% 14.7% 82.0% -6.7 9
1891-03-28 Abercorn D 1-1 1418 1335 70.9% 15.2% 13.9% -8.0 12
1891-03-28 @ Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1335 1418 13.9% 15.2% 70.9% +8.0 8
1891-03-28 Cambuslang L 2-3 1233 1461 34.8% 15.3% 49.9% -18.5 7
1891-03-28 @ St. Mirren W 3-2 1461 1233 49.9% 15.3% 34.8% +18.6 15
1891-04-04 Vale of Leven W 4-0 1725 1239 84.2% 14.2% 1.6% +3.9 25
1891-04-04 @ Rangers L 0-4 1239 1725 1.6% 14.2% 84.2% -3.8 9
1891-04-04 Celtic W 1-0 1214 1535 23.6% 15.2% 61.2% +34.4 9
1891-04-04 @ St. Mirren L 0-1 1535 1214 61.2% 15.2% 23.6% -34.4 14
1891-04-04 Cambuslang L 1-2 1322 1480 44.8% 15.3% 39.9% -24.3 9
1891-04-04 @ Third Lanark W 2-1 1480 1322 39.9% 15.3% 44.8% +24.3 17
1891-04-11 Abercorn L 4-5 1504 1343 75.6% 15.1% 9.3% -36.9 17
1891-04-11 @ Cambuslang W 5-4 1343 1504 9.3% 15.1% 75.6% +36.9 10
1891-04-11 Dumbarton W 1-0 1501 1689 40.3% 15.3% 44.4% +25.6 16
1891-04-11 @ Celtic L 0-1 1689 1501 44.4% 15.3% 40.3% -25.6 25
1891-04-11 Third Lanark D 2-2 1195 1298 52.1% 15.3% 32.6% -1.9 7
1891-04-11 @ Cowlairs D 2-2 1298 1195 32.6% 15.3% 52.1% +1.9 10
1891-04-11 Heart of Midlothian W 3-2 1248 1410 44.1% 15.3% 40.6% +21.2 11
1891-04-11 @ St. Mirren L 2-3 1410 1248 40.6% 15.3% 44.1% -21.2 12
1891-04-18 Cambuslang D 1-1 1193 1467 29.0% 15.2% 55.8% +3.5 8
1891-04-18 @ Cowlairs D 1-1 1467 1193 55.8% 15.2% 29.0% -3.6 18
1891-04-18 Heart of Midlothian W 4-0 1300 1389 53.9% 15.3% 30.8% +66.7 12
1891-04-18 @ Third Lanark L 0-4 1389 1300 30.8% 15.3% 53.9% -66.8 12
1891-04-20 Dumbarton L 0-4 1322 1664 21.6% 15.2% 63.3% -48.5 12
1891-04-20 @ Heart of Midlothian W 4-0 1664 1322 63.3% 15.2% 21.6% +48.5 27
1891-04-25 Heart of Midlothian W 1-0 1380 1274 72.4% 15.2% 12.4% +8.2 12
1891-04-25 @ Abercorn L 0-1 1274 1380 12.4% 15.2% 72.4% -8.2 12
1891-04-25 Third Lanark D 1-1 1526 1367 75.5% 15.1% 9.4% -9.4 17
1891-04-25 @ Celtic D 1-1 1367 1526 9.4% 15.1% 75.5% +9.4 13
1891-04-25 St. Mirren W 4-2 1196 1270 55.9% 15.3% 28.8% +25.7 10
1891-04-25 @ Cowlairs L 2-4 1270 1196 28.8% 15.3% 55.9% -25.7 11
1891-04-25 Dumbarton W 4-2 1728 1712 65.4% 15.3% 19.3% +18.0 27
1891-04-25 @ Rangers L 2-4 1712 1728 19.3% 15.3% 65.4% -18.0 27
1891-04-25 Cambuslang W 2-1 1235 1463 34.8% 15.3% 49.9% +26.7 11
1891-04-25 @ Vale of Leven L 1-2 1463 1235 49.9% 15.3% 34.8% -26.7 18
1891-04-28 Abercorn W 2-1 1376 1388 62.7% 15.3% 22.0% +13.0 15
1891-04-28 @ Third Lanark L 1-2 1388 1376 22.0% 15.3% 62.7% -13.1 12
1891-04-29 Celtic L 0-5 1222 1517 26.5% 15.2% 58.2% -72.1 10
1891-04-29 @ Cowlairs W 5-0 1517 1222 58.2% 15.2% 26.5% +72.1 19
1891-05-02 Heart of Midlothian W 2-0 1437 1266 76.1% 15.1% 8.9% +11.2 20
1891-05-02 @ Cambuslang L 0-2 1266 1437 8.9% 15.1% 76.1% -11.2 12
1891-05-02 Celtic L 1-2 1746 1589 75.4% 15.1% 9.5% -40.3 27
1891-05-02 @ Rangers W 2-1 1589 1746 9.5% 15.1% 75.4% +40.3 21
1891-05-02 Dumbarton L 2-4 1244 1694 12.7% 15.0% 72.3% -12.1 11
1891-05-02 @ St. Mirren W 4-2 1694 1244 72.3% 15.0% 12.7% +12.1 29
1891-05-02 Third Lanark L 1-2 1262 1389 48.9% 15.3% 35.8% -26.2 11
1891-05-02 @ Vale of Leven W 2-1 1389 1262 35.8% 15.3% 48.9% +26.2 17
1891-05-05 Vale of Leven W 9-1 1629 1235 82.8% 14.5% 2.6% +10.2 23
1891-05-05 @ Celtic L 1-9 1235 1629 2.6% 14.5% 82.8% -10.2 11
1891-05-06 Cowlairs W 3-0 1415 1150 79.8% 14.9% 5.3% +9.9 19
1891-05-06 @ Third Lanark L 0-3 1150 1415 5.3% 14.9% 79.8% -9.9 10
1891-05-09 Third Lanark W 4-1 1706 1425 80.2% 14.8% 4.9% +7.7 29
1891-05-09 @ Rangers L 1-4 1425 1706 4.9% 14.8% 80.2% -7.7 19
1891-05-09 Heart of Midlothian L 2-4 1225 1254 60.9% 15.3% 23.8% -50.0 11
1891-05-09 @ Vale of Leven W 4-2 1254 1225 23.8% 15.3% 60.9% +50.0 14
1891-05-12 Abercorn W 2-0 1639 1375 79.8% 14.9% 5.4% +6.9 25
1891-05-12 @ Celtic L 0-2 1375 1639 5.4% 14.9% 79.8% -6.9 12

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1891-04-11 9.34% Abercorn 1343 5 @ Cambuslang 1504 4
2 1891-05-02 9.52% Celtic 1589 2 @ Rangers 1746 1
3 1891-01-24 18.32% @ Vale of Leven 1236 3 Celtic 1612 1
4 1890-08-23 18.91% Rangers 1442 6 @ Cambuslang 1462 2
5 1890-08-23 20.28% Dumbarton 1409 3 @ Third Lanark 1415 1
6 1890-10-04 20.83% Third Lanark 1382 4 @ Abercorn 1382 2
7 1890-08-23 23.51% Celtic 1415 5 @ Heart of Midlothian 1389 0
8 1891-04-04 23.64% @ St. Mirren 1214 1 Celtic 1535 0
9 1891-05-09 23.83% Heart of Midlothian 1254 4 @ Vale of Leven 1225 2
10 1890-12-06 34.54% Cambuslang 1375 5 @ Abercorn 1257 2
11 1891-03-07 34.65% Heart of Midlothian 1366 2 @ Cowlairs 1247 1
12 1891-04-25 34.78% @ Vale of Leven 1235 2 Cambuslang 1463 1
13 1890-09-13 35.76% @ Third Lanark 1356 2 Celtic 1577 1
14 1891-05-02 35.83% Third Lanark 1389 2 @ Vale of Leven 1262 1
15 1891-03-07 38.13% Rangers 1614 4 @ Third Lanark 1469 0
16 1890-10-04 39.08% Dumbarton 1525 3 @ Vale of Leven 1374 1
17 1891-01-24 39.89% Rangers 1546 1 @ Heart of Midlothian 1389 0
18 1891-04-04 39.91% Cambuslang 1480 2 @ Third Lanark 1322 1
19 1891-01-24 40.16% @ Abercorn 1192 5 St. Mirren 1381 1
20 1891-04-11 40.27% @ Celtic 1501 1 Dumbarton 1689 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1890-08-23 151.71 Celtic 5 1415 23.51% @ Heart of Midlothian 0 1389 61.19% 15.30%
2 1891-03-07 95.32 Rangers 4 1614 38.13% @ Third Lanark 0 1469 46.55% 15.32%
3 1890-08-23 93.71 Rangers 6 1442 18.91% @ Cambuslang 2 1462 65.83% 15.26%
4 1890-09-13 87.36 @ Heart of Midlothian 4 1230 42.61% Cowlairs 0 1402 42.08% 15.31%
5 1891-03-07 78.58 @ Abercorn 6 1252 60.64% Vale of Leven 0 1284 24.07% 15.30%
6 1891-01-24 76.43 @ Abercorn 5 1192 40.16% St. Mirren 1 1381 44.54% 15.30%
7 1891-04-29 72.07 Celtic 5 1517 58.25% @ Cowlairs 0 1222 26.53% 15.22%
8 1890-10-25 72.00 @ Heart of Midlothian 8 1317 61.66% Vale of Leven 1 1339 23.05% 15.29%
9 1890-10-25 69.01 Dumbarton 6 1581 53.48% @ Cowlairs 1 1325 31.26% 15.26%
10 1891-04-18 66.75 @ Third Lanark 4 1300 53.91% Heart of Midlothian 0 1389 30.78% 15.32%
11 1891-01-24 61.09 @ Vale of Leven 3 1236 18.32% Celtic 1 1612 66.56% 15.11%
12 1890-10-25 60.82 Celtic 5 1551 50.59% @ Abercorn 1 1317 34.13% 15.28%
13 1890-08-23 59.18 Dumbarton 3 1409 20.28% @ Third Lanark 1 1415 64.44% 15.27%
14 1890-12-06 56.96 Cambuslang 5 1375 34.54% @ Abercorn 2 1257 50.14% 15.32%
15 1890-10-04 52.48 Third Lanark 4 1382 20.83% @ Abercorn 2 1382 63.89% 15.28%
16 1891-05-09 50.00 Heart of Midlothian 4 1254 23.83% @ Vale of Leven 2 1225 60.88% 15.30%
17 1890-09-13 49.92 @ Dumbarton 5 1476 57.47% Rangers 1 1535 27.22% 15.31%
18 1891-04-20 48.50 Dumbarton 4 1664 63.29% @ Heart of Midlothian 0 1322 21.55% 15.16%
19 1890-08-16 47.16 @ Cambuslang 8 1415 63.88% Vale of Leven 2 1415 20.85% 15.28%
20 1890-10-04 42.73 Dumbarton 3 1525 39.08% @ Vale of Leven 1 1374 45.60% 15.32%
21 1891-05-02 40.31 Celtic 2 1589 9.52% @ Rangers 1 1746 75.39% 15.09%
22 1891-02-28 39.47 Rangers 7 1574 56.87% @ St. Mirren 3 1291 27.90% 15.23%
23 1890-10-04 39.41 @ Rangers 8 1485 67.63% St. Mirren 2 1444 17.13% 15.24%
24 1891-04-11 36.90 Abercorn 5 1343 9.34% @ Cambuslang 4 1504 75.57% 15.09%
25 1891-03-07 36.52 @ Cambuslang 3 1423 46.73% Celtic 1 1566 37.95% 15.32%