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2022-23 Championship Season

180 games

Final

Promoted

—

No promotions.

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Greenock Morton

7.85 points above expected

57 points · 49.15 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Arbroath

19.60 points below expected

34 points · 53.60 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Dundee 36 17 12 7 63 66 40 +26 57.91 +5.09
2 Ayr United 36 16 10 10 58 61 43 +18 52.49 +5.51
3 Queen's Park 36 17 7 12 58 63 52 +11 54.69 +3.31
4 Partick Thistle 36 16 9 11 57 65 45 +20 51.38 +5.62
5 Greenock Morton 36 15 12 9 57 53 43 +10 49.15 +7.85
6 Inverness CT 36 15 10 11 55 52 47 +5 58.49 -3.49
7 Raith Rovers 36 11 10 15 43 46 49 -3 47.35 -4.35
8 Arbroath 36 6 16 14 34 29 47 -18 53.60 -19.60
9 Hamilton Academical 36 7 10 19 31 31 63 -32 39.19 -8.19
10 Cove Rangers 36 7 10 19 31 38 75 -37 43.20 -12.20

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Dundee 1567 63 57.91 +5.09 75.4% 24 45 53 58 63 71 90
Partick Thistle 1532 57 51.38 +5.62 77.8% 22 39 46 51 57 65 78
Inverness CT 1523 55 58.49 -3.49 35.4% 26 45 53 59 64 72 88
Ayr United 1515 58 52.49 +5.51 77.4% 24 39 47 53 58 66 85
Queen's Park 1497 58 54.69 +3.31 68.7% 26 42 49 55 60 68 81
Greenock Morton 1488 57 49.15 +7.85 85.3% 22 36 44 49 54 62 75
Arbroath 1447 34 53.60 -19.60 0.8% 27 41 48 54 59 67 82
Raith Rovers 1442 43 47.35 -4.35 31.5% 19 34 42 47 53 61 80
Hamilton Academical 1361 31 39.19 -8.19 15.7% 12 27 34 39 44 52 70
Cove Rangers 1341 31 43.20 -12.20 6.8% 14 30 38 43 48 56 74

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ARB AU CR DUN GM HA IC PT QP RR
Arbroath —
1-2-1
5.87
0-2-2
6.66
1-2-1
5.37
2-2-0
5.76
1-2-1
6.97
0-2-2
5.22
0-1-3
5.79
1-1-2
5.77
0-2-2
6.03
Ayr United
1-2-1
5.40
 —
3-1-0
6.34
1-0-3
5.26
2-2-0
5.95
3-1-0
6.95
1-1-2
5.15
1-1-2
5.98
2-1-1
5.42
2-1-1
6.27
Cove Rangers
2-2-0
4.62
0-1-3
4.95
 —
1-1-2
3.95
0-0-4
4.92
1-3-0
6.08
0-0-4
4.12
1-2-1
4.79
1-0-3
4.15
1-1-2
5.52
Dundee
1-2-1
5.90
3-0-1
6.01
2-1-1
7.36
 —
0-3-1
6.64
3-1-0
7.49
1-2-1
5.72
1-1-2
6.40
3-1-0
5.89
3-1-0
6.49
Greenock Morton
0-2-2
5.51
0-2-2
5.32
4-0-0
6.35
1-3-0
4.64
 —
2-1-1
6.46
2-1-1
4.56
1-1-2
5.58
3-1-0
4.81
2-1-1
5.86
Hamilton Academical
1-2-1
4.32
0-1-3
4.33
0-3-1
5.20
0-1-3
3.82
1-1-2
4.82
 —
3-0-1
3.58
1-2-1
4.16
0-0-4
4.26
1-0-3
4.71
Inverness CT
2-2-0
6.05
2-1-1
6.12
4-0-0
7.16
1-2-1
5.55
1-1-2
6.72
1-0-3
7.73
 —
2-0-2
6.51
0-2-2
5.95
2-2-0
6.74
Partick Thistle
3-1-0
5.49
2-1-1
5.29
1-2-1
6.48
2-1-1
4.88
2-1-1
5.70
1-2-1
7.12
2-0-2
4.76
 —
1-0-3
5.60
2-1-1
6.12
Queen's Park
2-1-1
5.51
1-1-2
5.85
3-0-1
7.15
0-1-3
5.38
0-1-3
6.46
4-0-0
7.04
2-2-0
5.32
3-0-1
5.67
 —
2-1-1
6.32
Raith Rovers
2-2-0
5.24
1-1-2
5.00
2-1-1
5.75
0-1-3
4.79
1-1-2
5.41
3-0-1
6.58
0-2-2
4.54
1-1-2
5.15
1-1-2
4.95
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.89 +8.6
Allowed 0.58 -9.0
Differential 0.94 +5.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.78%7.78%6.39%2.50%1.11%1.67%27.22%
17.78%12.78%7.50%1.94%1.39%1.11%32.50%
26.39%7.50%7.78%2.50%0.83%0.28%25.28%
32.50%1.94%2.50%0.56%—0.28%7.78%
41.11%1.39%0.83%—0.56%—3.89%
5+1.67%1.11%0.28%0.28%——3.33%
Total27.22%32.50%25.28%7.78%3.89%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.40 1.40 +0.00
SD 1.30 1.30 1.93
CV 0.93 0.93 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%8.33%13.89%2.78%——41.67%
15.56%25.00%5.56%—5.56%—41.67%
22.78%5.56%2.78%—2.78%—13.89%
3———————
4——2.78%———2.78%
5+———————
Total25.00%38.89%25.00%2.78%8.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.81 1.31 -0.50
SD 0.89 1.14 1.30
CV 1.10 0.87 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%5.56%8.33%———22.22%
15.56%8.33%5.56%2.78%——22.22%
28.33%8.33%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
32.78%5.56%5.56%———13.89%
4——2.78%———2.78%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total30.56%27.78%33.33%8.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.69 1.19 +0.50
SD 1.35 0.98 1.72
CV 0.80 0.82 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%8.33%2.78%8.33%—8.33%30.56%
15.56%11.11%16.67%—2.78%5.56%41.67%
211.11%—11.11%———22.22%
3—2.78%————2.78%
4————2.78%—2.78%
5+———————
Total19.44%22.22%30.56%8.33%5.56%13.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 2.08 -1.03
SD 0.95 1.79 2.20
CV 0.90 0.86 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.89%2.78%————16.67%
18.33%13.89%—8.33%——30.56%
211.11%2.78%2.78%5.56%2.78%—25.00%
38.33%5.56%2.78%2.78%——19.44%
4——2.78%———2.78%
5+2.78%——2.78%——5.56%
Total44.44%25.00%8.33%19.44%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.11 +0.72
SD 1.50 1.26 1.80
CV 0.82 1.13 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%2.78%————11.11%
113.89%13.89%16.67%2.78%—2.78%50.00%
22.78%16.67%8.33%———27.78%
3——2.78%2.78%——5.56%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total30.56%33.33%27.78%5.56%—2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.19 +0.28
SD 1.06 1.12 1.52
CV 0.72 0.93 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%13.89%16.67%—2.78%5.56%44.44%
111.11%11.11%5.56%2.78%2.78%—33.33%
2—5.56%8.33%2.78%——16.67%
32.78%—————2.78%
4————2.78%—2.78%
5+———————
Total19.44%30.56%30.56%5.56%8.33%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 1.75 -0.89
SD 0.99 1.56 1.86
CV 1.15 0.89 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%8.33%—2.78%2.78%—19.44%
111.11%13.89%11.11%—2.78%2.78%41.67%
28.33%11.11%8.33%———27.78%
3——2.78%———2.78%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total25.00%41.67%22.22%2.78%5.56%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.31 +0.14
SD 1.27 1.21 1.85
CV 0.88 0.93 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%11.11%2.78%2.78%2.78%—27.78%
12.78%8.33%2.78%———13.89%
25.56%8.33%8.33%5.56%2.78%—30.56%
35.56%2.78%5.56%———13.89%
42.78%2.78%————5.56%
5+2.78%5.56%————8.33%
Total27.78%38.89%19.44%8.33%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.81 1.25 +0.56
SD 1.55 1.13 2.05
CV 0.86 0.90 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%2.78%5.56%5.56%2.78%2.78%25.00%
18.33%8.33%5.56%———22.22%
28.33%11.11%5.56%5.56%——30.56%
3——2.78%——2.78%5.56%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+2.78%—2.78%———5.56%
Total30.56%27.78%22.22%11.11%2.78%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 1.44 +0.31
SD 1.56 1.40 2.32
CV 0.89 0.97 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%13.89%13.89%2.78%——33.33%
15.56%13.89%5.56%2.78%——27.78%
25.56%5.56%11.11%——2.78%25.00%
35.56%2.78%2.78%———11.11%
4———————
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total19.44%38.89%33.33%5.56%—2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.36 -0.08
SD 1.30 1.05 1.76
CV 1.02 0.77 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Greenock Morton 57 49.15 +7.85
2 Partick Thistle 57 51.38 +5.62
3 Ayr United 58 52.49 +5.51
4 Dundee 63 57.91 +5.09
5 Queen's Park 58 54.69 +3.31

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Arbroath 34 53.60 -19.60
2 Cove Rangers 31 43.20 -12.20
3 Hamilton Academical 31 39.19 -8.19
4 Raith Rovers 43 47.35 -4.35
5 Inverness CT 55 58.49 -3.49

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Queen's Park 6 Nov 12 – Jan 7 1 in 104
2 Dundee 5 Nov 5 – Dec 23 1 in 76
3 Inverness CT 6 Mar 24 – Apr 18 1 in 61
4 Ayr United 3 Aug 20 – Sep 3 1 in 24
5 Partick Thistle 3 Aug 19 – Sep 3 1 in 22

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Arbroath 4 Aug 12 – Sep 3 1 in 134
2 Partick Thistle 5 Oct 22 – Nov 12 1 in 74
3 Hamilton Academical 7 Nov 5 – Jan 7 1 in 52
4 Cove Rangers 6 Feb 25 – Apr 1 1 in 27
5 Queen's Park 3 Mar 24 – Apr 7 1 in 25

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Greenock Morton 10 Oct 4 – Dec 23 1 in 433
2 Raith Rovers 9 Dec 17 – Feb 24 1 in 170
3 Hamilton Academical 5 Jan 14 – Feb 21 1 in 64
4 Partick Thistle 6 Feb 18 – Mar 18 1 in 51
5 Arbroath 7 Feb 18 – Apr 8 1 in 49

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Inverness CT 8 Oct 18 – Dec 23 1 in 423
2 Arbroath 7 Oct 29 – Dec 23 1 in 59
3 Raith Rovers 7 Apr 4 – May 5 1 in 27
4 Cove Rangers 10 Feb 12 – Apr 15 1 in 22
5 Greenock Morton 6 Dec 3 – Feb 4 1 in 19

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Dundee25.62%19.62%15.33%12.01%9.34%6.69%5.24%3.26%2.20%0.69%
Ayr United9.35%10.95%12.78%12.56%12.88%12.20%10.90%8.50%6.30%3.58%
Queen's Park13.47%14.54%14.78%13.40%12.24%10.77%8.46%6.43%4.13%1.78%
Partick Thistle7.68%9.99%10.57%12.20%12.89%12.10%12.54%10.47%7.38%4.18%
Greenock Morton4.23%7.05%7.90%9.89%11.89%13.62%13.49%13.51%11.35%7.07%
Inverness CT26.18%19.34%15.12%12.13%9.03%6.85%5.25%3.45%1.84%0.81%
Raith Rovers2.63%4.18%6.37%8.39%10.00%12.01%14.63%16.23%15.18%10.38%
Arbroath9.99%12.14%13.39%13.15%12.95%12.10%10.05%8.00%5.64%2.59%
Hamilton Academical0.12%0.47%1.02%1.77%2.76%5.18%7.85%13.42%22.52%44.89%
Cove Rangers0.73%1.72%2.74%4.50%6.02%8.48%11.59%16.73%23.46%24.03%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+9.44%
Slight Edge
40.00%29.44%30.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 32.91 Elo pts.
172 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.37 goals
Neutral
-2+0.19+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.6
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
26%
Dundee, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.14/gm
Photo Finish
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 6.3 * Some Luck: 6.3 to 9.45 * Lucky: 9.45 to 12.6 * Wild Swing: 12.6 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.59 * Close: 1.59 to 2.39 * Off: 2.39 to 3.18 * Way Off: 3.18 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
8.66 points
Some Luck
07.8820
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.00
Close
01.994
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
85.26%
Greenock Morton
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
0.80%
Arbroath
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.13
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.40
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
61%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
79%
Clear Edge
50%80%100%
Close Games
Expected
65%
Very Frequent
0%56%100%
Blowouts
Expected
16%
Frequent
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.68
Coin-Flip
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.28
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.28
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
-0.21
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
As Expected
0%29%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Shaky Favorites
0%25%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.17 * Above Noise: 0.17 to 0.23 * Well Above Noise: 0.23 and up.
Probability calibration
0.01
Miscalibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.64
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.085
Well Within Noise
00.1170.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Qualified for promotion playoff Same level Direct relegation
Inverness CT 26.18% 46.59% 26.42% 0.81%
Dundee 25.62% 46.96% 26.73% 0.69%
Queen's Park 13.47% 42.72% 42.03% 1.78%
Arbroath 9.99% 38.68% 48.74% 2.59%
Ayr United 9.35% 36.29% 50.78% 3.58%
Partick Thistle 7.68% 32.76% 55.38% 4.18%
Greenock Morton 4.23% 24.84% 63.86% 7.07%
Raith Rovers 2.63% 18.94% 68.05% 10.38%
Cove Rangers 0.73% 8.96% 66.28% 24.03%
Hamilton Academical 0.12% 3.26% 51.73% 44.89%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2022-07-30 Arbroath D 0-0 1433 1555 34.4% 18.5% 47.1% +0.5 1
2022-07-30 @ Ayr United D 0-0 1555 1433 47.1% 18.5% 34.4% -0.5 1
2022-07-30 Greenock Morton D 1-1 1445 1429 53.3% 18.2% 28.5% -0.8 1
2022-07-30 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-1 1429 1445 28.5% 18.2% 53.3% +0.8 1
2022-07-30 Partick Thistle L 2-3 1482 1445 55.9% 18.0% 26.1% -7.3 0
2022-07-30 @ Dundee W 3-2 1445 1482 26.1% 18.0% 55.9% +7.3 3
2022-07-30 Queen's Park D 1-1 1544 1459 61.3% 17.4% 21.3% -1.4 1
2022-07-30 @ Inverness CT D 1-1 1459 1544 21.3% 17.4% 61.3% +1.4 1
2022-07-30 Raith Rovers W 2-0 1468 1449 53.6% 18.2% 28.2% +8.6 3
2022-07-30 @ Cove Rangers L 0-2 1449 1468 28.2% 18.2% 53.6% -8.6 0
2022-08-05 Ayr United L 2-3 1461 1434 54.6% 18.1% 27.3% -7.1 1
2022-08-05 @ Queen's Park W 3-2 1434 1461 27.3% 18.1% 54.6% +7.1 4
2022-08-06 Cove Rangers W 1-0 1430 1477 44.8% 18.6% 36.6% +5.7 4
2022-08-06 @ Greenock Morton L 0-1 1477 1430 36.6% 18.6% 44.8% -5.7 3
2022-08-06 Dundee L 0-1 1441 1475 46.6% 18.5% 34.9% -7.0 0
2022-08-06 @ Raith Rovers W 1-0 1475 1441 34.9% 18.5% 46.6% +6.9 3
2022-08-06 Hamilton Academical D 1-1 1452 1445 52.2% 18.3% 29.6% -0.8 4
2022-08-06 @ Partick Thistle D 1-1 1445 1452 29.6% 18.3% 52.2% +0.8 2
2022-08-06 Inverness CT D 0-0 1555 1543 52.7% 18.2% 29.0% -0.9 2
2022-08-06 @ Arbroath D 0-0 1543 1555 29.0% 18.2% 52.7% +0.9 2
2022-08-12 Arbroath W 4-2 1482 1554 41.3% 18.6% 40.1% +9.0 6
2022-08-12 @ Dundee L 2-4 1554 1482 40.1% 18.6% 41.3% -8.9 2
2022-08-13 Cove Rangers W 4-1 1544 1471 60.0% 17.6% 22.5% +8.5 5
2022-08-13 @ Inverness CT L 1-4 1471 1544 22.5% 17.6% 60.0% -8.5 3
2022-08-13 Greenock Morton W 2-1 1434 1435 51.0% 18.3% 30.6% +4.6 3
2022-08-13 @ Raith Rovers L 1-2 1435 1434 30.6% 18.3% 51.0% -4.6 4
2022-08-13 Hamilton Academical D 2-2 1441 1445 50.6% 18.4% 31.0% -0.5 5
2022-08-13 @ Ayr United D 2-2 1445 1441 31.0% 18.4% 50.6% +0.5 3
2022-08-13 Partick Thistle W 3-2 1454 1451 51.5% 18.3% 30.2% +4.3 4
2022-08-13 @ Queen's Park L 2-3 1451 1454 30.2% 18.3% 51.5% -4.3 4
2022-08-19 Inverness CT W 4-1 1447 1552 36.6% 18.6% 44.8% +15.5 7
2022-08-19 @ Partick Thistle L 1-4 1552 1447 44.8% 18.6% 36.6% -15.5 5
2022-08-20 Ayr United L 1-2 1463 1441 54.0% 18.1% 27.9% -7.5 3
2022-08-20 @ Cove Rangers W 2-1 1441 1463 27.9% 18.1% 54.0% +7.5 8
2022-08-20 Dundee D 0-0 1431 1491 43.0% 18.6% 38.5% -0.2 5
2022-08-20 @ Greenock Morton D 0-0 1491 1431 38.5% 18.6% 43.0% +0.2 7
2022-08-20 Queen's Park L 1-2 1545 1458 61.6% 17.3% 21.1% -8.4 2
2022-08-20 @ Arbroath W 2-1 1458 1545 21.1% 17.3% 61.6% +8.4 7
2022-08-20 Raith Rovers L 0-2 1446 1438 52.2% 18.3% 29.6% -14.5 3
2022-08-20 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-0 1438 1446 29.6% 18.3% 52.2% +14.5 6
2022-08-26 Dundee W 3-1 1448 1491 45.4% 18.6% 36.1% +9.2 11
2022-08-26 @ Ayr United L 1-3 1491 1448 36.1% 18.6% 45.4% -9.2 7
2022-08-27 Arbroath W 1-0 1431 1536 36.6% 18.6% 44.8% +6.7 6
2022-08-27 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-1 1536 1431 44.8% 18.6% 36.6% -6.7 2
2022-08-27 Cove Rangers W 2-1 1466 1455 52.6% 18.2% 29.1% +4.4 10
2022-08-27 @ Queen's Park L 1-2 1455 1466 29.1% 18.2% 52.6% -4.4 3
2022-08-27 Greenock Morton L 0-1 1537 1430 63.6% 17.1% 19.4% -9.2 5
2022-08-27 @ Inverness CT W 1-0 1430 1537 19.4% 17.1% 63.6% +9.2 8
2022-08-27 Raith Rovers W 2-1 1462 1453 52.4% 18.2% 29.3% +4.4 10
2022-08-27 @ Partick Thistle L 1-2 1453 1462 29.3% 18.2% 52.4% -4.4 6
2022-09-03 Ayr United L 1-2 1440 1457 48.9% 18.4% 32.7% -6.8 8
2022-09-03 @ Greenock Morton W 2-1 1457 1440 32.7% 18.4% 48.9% +6.8 14
2022-09-03 Hamilton Academical D 2-2 1451 1438 52.8% 18.2% 28.9% -0.6 4
2022-09-03 @ Cove Rangers D 2-2 1438 1451 28.9% 18.2% 52.8% +0.6 7
2022-09-03 Inverness CT L 0-2 1448 1528 40.3% 18.6% 41.1% -11.6 6
2022-09-03 @ Raith Rovers W 2-0 1528 1448 41.1% 18.6% 40.3% +11.6 8
2022-09-03 Partick Thistle L 0-2 1530 1467 58.9% 17.7% 23.4% -16.1 2
2022-09-03 @ Arbroath W 2-0 1467 1530 23.4% 17.7% 58.9% +16.1 13
2022-09-03 Queen's Park W 3-0 1482 1471 52.7% 18.2% 29.1% +12.8 10
2022-09-03 @ Dundee L 0-3 1471 1482 29.1% 18.2% 52.7% -12.8 10
2022-09-17 Arbroath L 1-2 1433 1514 40.0% 18.6% 41.3% -5.8 8
2022-09-17 @ Greenock Morton W 2-1 1514 1433 41.3% 18.6% 40.0% +5.8 5
2022-09-17 Ayr United W 3-2 1437 1464 47.6% 18.5% 33.9% +4.8 9
2022-09-17 @ Raith Rovers L 2-3 1464 1437 33.9% 18.5% 47.6% -4.8 14
2022-09-17 Cove Rangers D 2-2 1483 1450 55.4% 18.0% 26.6% -0.7 14
2022-09-17 @ Partick Thistle D 2-2 1450 1483 26.6% 18.0% 55.4% +0.7 5
2022-09-17 Inverness CT L 2-3 1495 1539 45.2% 18.6% 36.2% -6.1 10
2022-09-17 @ Dundee W 3-2 1539 1495 36.2% 18.6% 45.2% +6.1 11
2022-09-17 Queen's Park L 0-2 1439 1458 48.7% 18.4% 32.9% -13.6 7
2022-09-17 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-0 1458 1439 32.9% 18.4% 48.7% +13.6 13
2022-10-01 Arbroath W 2-0 1451 1519 41.8% 18.6% 39.6% +11.4 8
2022-10-01 @ Cove Rangers L 0-2 1519 1451 39.6% 18.6% 41.8% -11.4 5
2022-10-01 Dundee L 0-2 1425 1489 42.5% 18.6% 38.9% -12.1 7
2022-10-01 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-0 1489 1425 38.9% 18.6% 42.5% +12.1 13
2022-10-01 Greenock Morton W 5-1 1482 1427 58.0% 17.8% 24.2% +11.8 17
2022-10-01 @ Partick Thistle L 1-5 1427 1482 24.2% 17.8% 58.0% -11.8 8
2022-10-01 Inverness CT L 0-1 1459 1545 39.3% 18.6% 42.1% -6.0 14
2022-10-01 @ Ayr United W 1-0 1545 1459 42.1% 18.6% 39.3% +6.0 14
2022-10-01 Raith Rovers W 1-0 1471 1442 55.0% 18.1% 27.0% +4.4 16
2022-10-01 @ Queen's Park L 0-1 1442 1471 27.0% 18.1% 55.0% -4.4 9
2022-10-04 Dundee W 3-1 1462 1501 46.0% 18.5% 35.4% +9.0 11
2022-10-04 @ Cove Rangers L 1-3 1501 1462 35.4% 18.5% 46.0% -9.0 13
2022-10-04 Greenock Morton L 1-2 1476 1415 58.6% 17.7% 23.7% -8.0 16
2022-10-04 @ Queen's Park W 2-1 1415 1476 23.7% 17.7% 58.6% +8.0 11
2022-10-07 Partick Thistle W 1-0 1551 1494 58.2% 17.8% 24.0% +3.9 17
2022-10-07 @ Inverness CT L 0-1 1494 1551 24.0% 17.8% 58.2% -3.9 17
2022-10-08 Cove Rangers W 3-0 1437 1471 46.6% 18.5% 34.8% +14.9 12
2022-10-08 @ Raith Rovers L 0-3 1471 1437 34.8% 18.5% 46.6% -14.9 11
2022-10-08 Dundee D 1-1 1508 1492 53.3% 18.2% 28.5% -0.8 6
2022-10-08 @ Arbroath D 1-1 1492 1508 28.5% 18.2% 53.3% +0.8 14
2022-10-08 Hamilton Academical W 5-0 1423 1413 52.5% 18.2% 29.2% +20.7 14
2022-10-08 @ Greenock Morton L 0-5 1413 1423 29.2% 18.2% 52.5% -20.7 7
2022-10-08 Queen's Park W 5-0 1453 1468 49.3% 18.4% 32.3% +22.5 17
2022-10-08 @ Ayr United L 0-5 1468 1453 32.3% 18.4% 49.3% -22.5 16
2022-10-14 Arbroath D 1-1 1445 1507 42.7% 18.6% 38.7% -0.1 17
2022-10-14 @ Queen's Park D 1-1 1507 1445 38.7% 18.6% 42.7% +0.1 7
2022-10-15 Ayr United W 2-1 1493 1476 53.4% 18.2% 28.4% +4.3 17
2022-10-15 @ Dundee L 1-2 1476 1493 28.4% 18.2% 53.4% -4.3 17
2022-10-15 Inverness CT L 0-1 1456 1555 37.5% 18.6% 43.9% -5.8 11
2022-10-15 @ Cove Rangers W 1-0 1555 1456 43.9% 18.6% 37.5% +5.8 20
2022-10-15 Partick Thistle L 1-2 1392 1490 37.6% 18.6% 43.8% -5.5 7
2022-10-15 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-1 1490 1392 43.8% 18.6% 37.6% +5.5 20
2022-10-15 Raith Rovers W 1-0 1444 1452 50.1% 18.4% 31.5% +5.0 17
2022-10-15 @ Greenock Morton L 0-1 1452 1444 31.5% 18.4% 50.1% -5.0 12
2022-10-18 Hamilton Academical L 0-1 1561 1387 69.9% 15.8% 14.2% -10.0 20
2022-10-18 @ Inverness CT W 1-0 1387 1561 14.2% 15.8% 69.9% +10.0 10
2022-10-19 Raith Rovers L 0-1 1507 1447 58.6% 17.7% 23.7% -8.5 7
2022-10-19 @ Arbroath W 1-0 1447 1507 23.7% 17.7% 58.6% +8.5 15
2022-10-22 Cove Rangers D 2-2 1471 1451 53.9% 18.1% 28.0% -0.7 18
2022-10-22 @ Ayr United D 2-2 1451 1471 28.0% 18.1% 53.9% +0.7 12
2022-10-22 Greenock Morton D 0-0 1497 1449 57.2% 17.9% 25.0% -1.2 18
2022-10-22 @ Dundee D 0-0 1449 1497 25.0% 17.9% 57.2% +1.2 18
2022-10-22 Hamilton Academical W 1-0 1499 1397 63.1% 17.1% 19.8% +3.3 10
2022-10-22 @ Arbroath L 0-1 1397 1499 19.8% 17.1% 63.1% -3.3 10
2022-10-22 Queen's Park L 0-4 1496 1445 57.5% 17.8% 24.7% -30.0 20
2022-10-22 @ Partick Thistle W 4-0 1445 1496 24.7% 17.8% 57.5% +30.0 20
2022-10-22 Raith Rovers D 1-1 1551 1456 62.4% 17.2% 20.3% -1.5 21
2022-10-22 @ Inverness CT D 1-1 1456 1551 20.3% 17.2% 62.4% +1.5 16
2022-10-25 Partick Thistle W 4-2 1471 1466 51.9% 18.3% 29.8% +7.0 21
2022-10-25 @ Ayr United L 2-4 1466 1471 29.8% 18.3% 51.9% -7.0 20
2022-10-28 Dundee D 2-2 1475 1496 48.5% 18.5% 33.1% -0.4 21
2022-10-28 @ Queen's Park D 2-2 1496 1475 33.1% 18.5% 48.5% +0.4 19
2022-10-28 Inverness CT W 4-0 1450 1549 37.4% 18.6% 44.0% +23.7 21
2022-10-28 @ Greenock Morton L 0-4 1549 1450 44.0% 18.6% 37.4% -23.7 21
2022-10-29 Ayr United L 0-2 1502 1478 54.3% 18.1% 27.6% -15.0 10
2022-10-29 @ Arbroath W 2-0 1478 1502 27.6% 18.1% 54.3% +15.0 24
2022-10-29 Cove Rangers D 4-4 1394 1451 43.4% 18.6% 38.1% -0.1 11
2022-10-29 @ Hamilton Academical D 4-4 1451 1394 38.1% 18.6% 43.4% +0.1 13
2022-10-29 Partick Thistle W 3-0 1457 1459 51.0% 18.3% 30.7% +13.4 19
2022-10-29 @ Raith Rovers L 0-3 1459 1457 30.7% 18.3% 51.0% -13.4 20
2022-11-04 Queen's Park W 2-0 1451 1475 48.1% 18.5% 33.4% +9.9 16
2022-11-04 @ Cove Rangers L 0-2 1475 1451 33.4% 18.5% 48.1% -9.9 21
2022-11-05 Arbroath D 1-1 1526 1487 56.1% 18.0% 26.0% -1.0 22
2022-11-05 @ Inverness CT D 1-1 1487 1526 26.0% 18.0% 56.1% +1.0 11
2022-11-05 Dundee L 2-3 1445 1496 44.3% 18.6% 37.1% -5.9 20
2022-11-05 @ Partick Thistle W 3-2 1496 1445 37.1% 18.6% 44.3% +5.9 22
2022-11-05 Greenock Morton D 1-1 1493 1474 53.6% 18.2% 28.2% -0.8 25
2022-11-05 @ Ayr United D 1-1 1474 1493 28.2% 18.2% 53.6% +0.9 22
2022-11-05 Hamilton Academical W 3-1 1471 1394 60.5% 17.5% 22.0% +5.9 22
2022-11-05 @ Raith Rovers L 1-3 1394 1471 22.0% 17.5% 60.5% -5.9 11
2022-11-11 Ayr United L 2-3 1388 1492 36.7% 18.6% 44.7% -5.1 11
2022-11-11 @ Hamilton Academical W 3-2 1492 1388 44.7% 18.6% 36.7% +5.1 28
2022-11-12 Cove Rangers D 1-1 1488 1461 54.6% 18.1% 27.3% -0.9 12
2022-11-12 @ Arbroath D 1-1 1461 1488 27.3% 18.1% 54.6% +0.9 17
2022-11-12 Inverness CT W 2-1 1465 1525 43.0% 18.6% 38.4% +5.6 24
2022-11-12 @ Queen's Park L 1-2 1525 1465 38.4% 18.6% 43.0% -5.6 22
2022-11-12 Partick Thistle W 2-1 1475 1439 55.6% 18.0% 26.3% +4.0 25
2022-11-12 @ Greenock Morton L 1-2 1439 1475 26.3% 18.0% 55.6% -4.0 20
2022-11-12 Raith Rovers W 2-0 1502 1476 54.5% 18.1% 27.4% +8.4 25
2022-11-12 @ Dundee L 0-2 1476 1502 27.4% 18.1% 54.5% -8.4 22
2022-11-19 Arbroath W 3-0 1435 1487 44.2% 18.6% 37.2% +15.8 23
2022-11-19 @ Partick Thistle L 0-3 1487 1435 37.2% 18.6% 44.2% -15.8 12
2022-11-19 Ayr United D 2-2 1519 1497 54.0% 18.1% 27.8% -0.7 23
2022-11-19 @ Inverness CT D 2-2 1497 1519 27.8% 18.1% 54.0% +0.7 29
2022-11-19 Greenock Morton L 1-2 1462 1479 49.0% 18.4% 32.6% -6.8 17
2022-11-19 @ Cove Rangers W 2-1 1479 1462 32.6% 18.4% 49.0% +6.8 28
2022-11-19 Hamilton Academical W 1-0 1510 1382 65.7% 16.7% 17.6% +2.9 28
2022-11-19 @ Dundee L 0-1 1382 1510 17.6% 16.7% 65.7% -2.9 11
2022-11-19 Queen's Park L 2-5 1468 1470 50.9% 18.3% 30.8% -15.0 22
2022-11-19 @ Raith Rovers W 5-2 1470 1468 30.8% 18.3% 50.9% +15.0 27
2022-12-03 Dundee L 0-1 1519 1513 51.9% 18.3% 29.8% -7.6 23
2022-12-03 @ Inverness CT W 1-0 1513 1519 29.8% 18.3% 51.9% +7.6 31
2022-12-03 Greenock Morton D 1-1 1471 1486 49.3% 18.4% 32.3% -0.6 13
2022-12-03 @ Arbroath D 1-1 1486 1471 32.3% 18.4% 49.3% +0.6 29
2022-12-03 Hamilton Academical W 4-0 1485 1380 63.5% 17.1% 19.4% +11.5 30
2022-12-03 @ Queen's Park L 0-4 1380 1485 19.4% 17.1% 63.5% -11.5 11
2022-12-03 Partick Thistle D 1-1 1455 1451 51.7% 18.3% 30.0% -0.7 18
2022-12-03 @ Cove Rangers D 1-1 1451 1455 30.0% 18.3% 51.7% +0.7 24
2022-12-03 Raith Rovers W 2-0 1498 1453 56.8% 17.9% 25.3% +7.8 32
2022-12-03 @ Ayr United L 0-2 1453 1498 25.3% 17.9% 56.8% -7.8 22
2022-12-17 Arbroath D 1-1 1445 1471 47.8% 18.5% 33.7% -0.5 23
2022-12-17 @ Raith Rovers D 1-1 1471 1445 33.7% 18.5% 47.8% +0.5 14
2022-12-17 Ayr United W 3-2 1452 1505 43.9% 18.6% 37.5% +5.2 27
2022-12-17 @ Partick Thistle L 2-3 1505 1452 37.5% 18.6% 43.9% -5.2 32
2022-12-23 Dundee L 0-2 1500 1521 48.5% 18.5% 33.1% -13.5 32
2022-12-23 @ Ayr United W 2-0 1521 1500 33.1% 18.5% 48.5% +13.5 34
2022-12-23 Greenock Morton D 2-2 1445 1486 45.6% 18.6% 35.8% -0.2 24
2022-12-23 @ Raith Rovers D 2-2 1486 1445 35.8% 18.6% 45.6% +0.2 30
2022-12-23 Hamilton Academical W 2-0 1455 1368 61.5% 17.4% 21.1% +6.6 21
2022-12-23 @ Cove Rangers L 0-2 1368 1455 21.1% 17.4% 61.5% -6.6 11
2022-12-23 Inverness CT W 5-1 1457 1511 43.9% 18.6% 37.5% +17.3 30
2022-12-23 @ Partick Thistle L 1-5 1511 1457 37.5% 18.6% 43.9% -17.3 23
2022-12-23 Queen's Park L 1-4 1471 1497 47.8% 18.5% 33.7% -16.4 14
2022-12-23 @ Arbroath W 4-1 1497 1471 33.7% 18.5% 47.8% +16.4 33
2023-01-02 Arbroath L 2-4 1535 1455 60.8% 17.5% 21.8% -12.9 34
2023-01-02 @ Dundee W 4-2 1455 1535 21.8% 17.5% 60.8% +12.9 17
2023-01-02 Cove Rangers W 6-1 1494 1461 55.3% 18.0% 26.7% +15.8 26
2023-01-02 @ Inverness CT L 1-6 1461 1494 26.7% 18.0% 55.3% -15.8 21
2023-01-02 Partick Thistle W 2-0 1513 1474 56.1% 18.0% 25.9% +8.0 36
2023-01-02 @ Queen's Park L 0-2 1474 1513 25.9% 18.0% 56.1% -8.0 30
2023-01-02 Raith Rovers L 0-1 1361 1445 39.7% 18.6% 41.7% -6.1 11
2023-01-02 @ Hamilton Academical W 1-0 1445 1361 41.7% 18.6% 39.7% +6.1 27
2023-01-06 Dundee D 1-1 1451 1522 41.4% 18.6% 40.0% -0.0 28
2023-01-06 @ Raith Rovers D 1-1 1522 1451 40.0% 18.6% 41.4% +0.0 35
2023-01-07 Cove Rangers W 6-0 1521 1445 60.3% 17.5% 22.1% +19.1 39
2023-01-07 @ Queen's Park L 0-6 1445 1521 22.1% 17.5% 60.3% -19.1 21
2023-01-07 Greenock Morton W 2-1 1466 1486 48.6% 18.4% 33.0% +4.9 33
2023-01-07 @ Partick Thistle L 1-2 1486 1466 33.0% 18.4% 48.6% -4.9 30
2023-01-07 Hamilton Academical W 1-0 1487 1355 66.1% 16.6% 17.3% +2.9 35
2023-01-07 @ Ayr United L 0-1 1355 1487 17.3% 16.6% 66.1% -2.9 11
2023-01-07 Inverness CT L 1-4 1468 1509 45.6% 18.6% 35.9% -15.7 17
2023-01-07 @ Arbroath W 4-1 1509 1468 35.9% 18.6% 45.6% +15.8 29
2023-01-14 Arbroath D 2-2 1490 1452 55.9% 18.0% 26.1% -0.8 36
2023-01-14 @ Ayr United D 2-2 1452 1490 26.1% 18.0% 55.9% +0.8 18
2023-01-14 Greenock Morton W 1-0 1352 1482 33.4% 18.5% 48.1% +7.1 14
2023-01-14 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-1 1482 1352 48.1% 18.5% 33.4% -7.1 30
2023-01-14 Queen's Park D 0-0 1525 1540 49.2% 18.4% 32.4% -0.6 30
2023-01-14 @ Inverness CT D 0-0 1540 1525 32.4% 18.4% 49.2% +0.6 40
2023-01-14 Raith Rovers D 2-2 1426 1451 48.0% 18.5% 33.6% -0.4 22
2023-01-14 @ Cove Rangers D 2-2 1451 1426 33.6% 18.5% 48.0% +0.3 29
2023-01-27 Ayr United L 0-5 1426 1489 42.6% 18.6% 38.8% -28.4 22
2023-01-27 @ Cove Rangers W 5-0 1489 1426 38.8% 18.6% 42.6% +28.4 39
2023-01-28 Arbroath L 1-2 1474 1453 54.0% 18.1% 27.9% -7.5 30
2023-01-28 @ Greenock Morton W 2-1 1453 1474 27.9% 18.1% 54.0% +7.5 21
2023-01-28 Hamilton Academical L 0-1 1471 1360 64.1% 17.0% 18.9% -9.3 33
2023-01-28 @ Partick Thistle W 1-0 1360 1471 18.9% 17.0% 64.1% +9.3 17
2023-01-28 Inverness CT D 2-2 1451 1525 41.1% 18.6% 40.3% -0.0 30
2023-01-28 @ Raith Rovers D 2-2 1525 1451 40.3% 18.6% 41.1% +0.0 31
2023-01-28 Queen's Park W 3-0 1522 1541 48.7% 18.4% 32.9% +14.2 38
2023-01-28 @ Dundee L 0-3 1541 1522 32.9% 18.4% 48.7% -14.2 40
2023-02-03 Ayr United W 2-0 1527 1517 52.4% 18.2% 29.3% +8.9 43
2023-02-03 @ Queen's Park L 0-2 1517 1527 29.3% 18.2% 52.4% -8.9 39
2023-02-04 Cove Rangers L 0-1 1462 1398 59.1% 17.7% 23.3% -8.6 33
2023-02-04 @ Partick Thistle W 1-0 1398 1462 23.3% 17.7% 59.1% +8.6 25
2023-02-04 Dundee D 1-1 1369 1536 28.7% 18.2% 53.1% +0.8 18
2023-02-04 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-1 1536 1369 53.1% 18.2% 28.7% -0.8 39
2023-02-04 Greenock Morton D 2-2 1525 1467 58.3% 17.8% 24.0% -0.9 32
2023-02-04 @ Inverness CT D 2-2 1467 1525 24.0% 17.8% 58.3% +0.9 31
2023-02-04 Raith Rovers L 1-2 1460 1451 52.4% 18.2% 29.3% -7.3 21
2023-02-04 @ Arbroath W 2-1 1451 1460 29.3% 18.2% 52.4% +7.2 33
2023-02-11 Queen's Park W 3-2 1468 1536 41.9% 18.6% 39.5% +5.4 34
2023-02-11 @ Greenock Morton L 2-3 1536 1468 39.5% 18.6% 41.9% -5.4 43
2023-02-12 Cove Rangers W 3-0 1535 1406 65.8% 16.7% 17.5% +8.0 42
2023-02-12 @ Dundee L 0-3 1406 1535 17.5% 16.7% 65.8% -8.0 25
2023-02-17 Dundee W 1-0 1473 1543 41.6% 18.6% 39.8% +6.1 37
2023-02-17 @ Greenock Morton L 0-1 1543 1473 39.8% 18.6% 41.6% -6.1 42
2023-02-17 Raith Rovers D 1-1 1530 1458 59.9% 17.6% 22.5% -1.3 44
2023-02-17 @ Queen's Park D 1-1 1458 1530 22.5% 17.6% 59.9% +1.3 34
2023-02-18 Arbroath D 1-1 1398 1453 43.8% 18.6% 37.7% -0.2 26
2023-02-18 @ Cove Rangers D 1-1 1453 1398 37.7% 18.6% 43.8% +0.2 22
2023-02-18 Hamilton Academical L 0-3 1524 1370 68.2% 16.2% 15.6% -26.8 32
2023-02-18 @ Inverness CT W 3-0 1370 1524 15.6% 16.2% 68.2% +26.8 21
2023-02-18 Partick Thistle L 0-1 1508 1453 58.0% 17.8% 24.2% -8.4 39
2023-02-18 @ Ayr United W 1-0 1453 1508 24.2% 17.8% 58.0% +8.4 36
2023-02-21 Inverness CT W 2-1 1397 1497 37.3% 18.6% 44.1% +6.3 24
2023-02-21 @ Hamilton Academical L 1-2 1497 1397 44.1% 18.6% 37.3% -6.2 32
2023-02-24 Ayr United D 0-0 1460 1500 45.8% 18.5% 35.7% -0.4 35
2023-02-24 @ Raith Rovers D 0-0 1500 1460 35.7% 18.5% 45.8% +0.4 40
2023-02-25 Cove Rangers W 2-1 1479 1398 61.0% 17.4% 21.6% +3.4 40
2023-02-25 @ Greenock Morton L 1-2 1398 1479 21.6% 17.4% 61.0% -3.4 26
2023-02-25 Inverness CT D 1-1 1537 1491 57.0% 17.9% 25.1% -1.1 43
2023-02-25 @ Dundee D 1-1 1491 1537 25.1% 17.9% 57.0% +1.1 33
2023-02-25 Partick Thistle D 0-0 1453 1462 50.0% 18.4% 31.6% -0.7 23
2023-02-25 @ Arbroath D 0-0 1462 1453 31.6% 18.4% 50.0% +0.7 37
2023-02-25 Queen's Park L 1-4 1403 1529 33.8% 18.5% 47.7% -12.3 24
2023-02-25 @ Hamilton Academical W 4-1 1529 1403 47.7% 18.5% 33.8% +12.3 47
2023-02-28 Partick Thistle L 1-3 1536 1463 60.1% 17.5% 22.4% -14.2 43
2023-02-28 @ Dundee W 3-1 1463 1536 22.4% 17.5% 60.1% +14.2 40
2023-03-03 Arbroath D 0-0 1391 1452 42.7% 18.6% 38.7% -0.1 25
2023-03-03 @ Hamilton Academical D 0-0 1452 1391 38.7% 18.6% 42.7% +0.1 24
2023-03-04 Dundee L 0-2 1395 1522 33.7% 18.5% 47.8% -10.0 26
2023-03-04 @ Cove Rangers W 2-0 1522 1395 47.8% 18.5% 33.7% +10.0 46
2023-03-04 Greenock Morton D 2-2 1541 1483 58.4% 17.7% 23.9% -0.9 48
2023-03-04 @ Queen's Park D 2-2 1483 1541 23.9% 17.7% 58.4% +0.9 41
2023-03-04 Inverness CT L 1-2 1500 1492 52.3% 18.3% 29.4% -7.2 40
2023-03-04 @ Ayr United W 2-1 1492 1500 29.4% 18.3% 52.3% +7.2 36
2023-03-04 Raith Rovers W 3-0 1477 1459 53.5% 18.2% 28.3% +12.5 43
2023-03-04 @ Partick Thistle L 0-3 1459 1477 28.3% 18.2% 53.5% -12.5 35
2023-03-07 Ayr United L 1-3 1484 1493 50.0% 18.4% 31.7% -12.0 41
2023-03-07 @ Greenock Morton W 3-1 1493 1484 31.7% 18.4% 50.0% +12.1 43
2023-03-10 Cove Rangers W 1-0 1540 1385 68.3% 16.2% 15.5% +2.6 51
2023-03-10 @ Queen's Park L 0-1 1385 1540 15.5% 16.2% 68.3% -2.6 26
2023-03-11 Partick Thistle D 0-0 1471 1489 48.8% 18.4% 32.7% -0.6 42
2023-03-11 @ Greenock Morton D 0-0 1489 1471 32.7% 18.4% 48.8% +0.6 44
2023-03-17 Greenock Morton D 1-1 1453 1471 48.8% 18.4% 32.8% -0.5 25
2023-03-17 @ Arbroath D 1-1 1471 1453 32.8% 18.4% 48.8% +0.5 43
2023-03-18 Ayr United L 0-2 1390 1505 35.3% 18.5% 46.2% -10.4 25
2023-03-18 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-0 1505 1390 46.2% 18.5% 35.3% +10.4 46
2023-03-18 Cove Rangers W 6-1 1447 1382 59.1% 17.7% 23.2% +13.9 38
2023-03-18 @ Raith Rovers L 1-6 1382 1447 23.2% 17.7% 59.1% -13.9 26
2023-03-18 Dundee D 0-0 1490 1532 45.6% 18.6% 35.9% -0.4 45
2023-03-18 @ Partick Thistle D 0-0 1532 1490 35.9% 18.6% 45.6% +0.3 47
2023-03-18 Inverness CT W 2-1 1543 1499 56.7% 17.9% 25.4% +3.9 54
2023-03-18 @ Queen's Park L 1-2 1499 1543 25.4% 17.9% 56.7% -3.9 36
2023-03-21 Ayr United W 3-1 1532 1516 53.3% 18.2% 28.5% +7.5 50
2023-03-21 @ Dundee L 1-3 1516 1532 28.5% 18.2% 53.3% -7.5 46
2023-03-24 Arbroath L 0-1 1547 1452 62.4% 17.2% 20.4% -9.0 54
2023-03-24 @ Queen's Park W 1-0 1452 1547 20.4% 17.2% 62.4% +9.0 28
2023-03-24 Cove Rangers W 3-0 1508 1368 66.9% 16.5% 16.6% +7.6 49
2023-03-24 @ Ayr United L 0-3 1368 1508 16.6% 16.5% 66.9% -7.6 26
2023-03-24 Partick Thistle W 1-0 1495 1490 51.9% 18.3% 29.8% +4.8 39
2023-03-24 @ Inverness CT L 0-1 1490 1495 29.8% 18.3% 51.9% -4.8 45
2023-03-31 Ayr United W 2-0 1461 1516 43.8% 18.6% 37.6% +11.0 31
2023-03-31 @ Arbroath L 0-2 1516 1461 37.6% 18.6% 43.8% -11.0 49
2023-04-01 Hamilton Academical W 7-0 1540 1380 68.7% 16.1% 15.2% +15.4 53
2023-04-01 @ Dundee L 0-7 1380 1540 15.2% 16.1% 68.7% -15.4 25
2023-04-01 Inverness CT L 1-2 1471 1500 47.4% 18.5% 34.1% -6.6 43
2023-04-01 @ Greenock Morton W 2-1 1500 1471 34.1% 18.5% 47.4% +6.7 42
2023-04-01 Partick Thistle L 0-5 1360 1485 34.0% 18.5% 47.5% -23.6 26
2023-04-01 @ Cove Rangers W 5-0 1485 1360 47.5% 18.5% 34.0% +23.6 48
2023-04-01 Queen's Park W 2-0 1461 1538 40.6% 18.6% 40.8% +11.7 41
2023-04-01 @ Raith Rovers L 0-2 1538 1461 40.8% 18.6% 40.6% -11.7 54
2023-04-04 Hamilton Academical L 1-2 1472 1365 63.7% 17.0% 19.2% -8.7 41
2023-04-04 @ Raith Rovers W 2-1 1365 1472 19.2% 17.0% 63.7% +8.7 28
2023-04-07 Queen's Park W 4-0 1508 1526 48.9% 18.4% 32.7% +18.5 51
2023-04-07 @ Partick Thistle L 0-4 1526 1508 32.7% 18.4% 48.9% -18.5 54
2023-04-08 Cove Rangers D 1-1 1373 1337 55.8% 18.0% 26.2% -1.0 29
2023-04-08 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-1 1337 1373 26.2% 18.0% 55.8% +1.0 27
2023-04-08 Dundee D 0-0 1472 1555 39.7% 18.6% 41.7% +0.1 32
2023-04-08 @ Arbroath D 0-0 1555 1472 41.7% 18.6% 39.7% -0.1 54
2023-04-08 Greenock Morton D 1-1 1505 1465 56.2% 18.0% 25.8% -1.0 50
2023-04-08 @ Ayr United D 1-1 1465 1505 25.8% 18.0% 56.2% +1.0 44
2023-04-08 Raith Rovers W 2-0 1506 1464 56.5% 17.9% 25.5% +7.8 45
2023-04-08 @ Inverness CT L 0-2 1464 1506 25.5% 17.9% 56.5% -7.8 41
2023-04-11 Arbroath W 2-0 1514 1472 56.5% 17.9% 25.6% +7.9 48
2023-04-11 @ Inverness CT L 0-2 1472 1514 25.6% 17.9% 56.5% -7.9 32
2023-04-11 Hamilton Academical W 2-0 1466 1372 62.3% 17.3% 20.5% +6.4 47
2023-04-11 @ Greenock Morton L 0-2 1372 1466 20.5% 17.3% 62.3% -6.4 29
2023-04-11 Raith Rovers W 3-1 1555 1456 62.8% 17.2% 20.0% +5.4 57
2023-04-11 @ Dundee L 1-3 1456 1555 20.0% 17.2% 62.8% -5.4 41
2023-04-14 Hamilton Academical W 1-0 1508 1366 67.0% 16.4% 16.5% +2.8 57
2023-04-14 @ Queen's Park L 0-1 1366 1508 16.5% 16.4% 67.0% -2.8 29
2023-04-15 Arbroath D 1-1 1450 1464 49.4% 18.4% 32.2% -0.6 42
2023-04-15 @ Raith Rovers D 1-1 1464 1450 32.2% 18.4% 49.4% +0.6 33
2023-04-15 Ayr United D 1-1 1527 1504 54.2% 18.1% 27.7% -0.9 52
2023-04-15 @ Partick Thistle D 1-1 1504 1527 27.7% 18.1% 54.2% +0.9 51
2023-04-15 Greenock Morton D 3-3 1560 1472 61.7% 17.3% 21.0% -0.9 58
2023-04-15 @ Dundee D 3-3 1472 1560 21.0% 17.3% 61.7% +0.9 48
2023-04-15 Inverness CT L 1-2 1338 1522 26.7% 18.0% 55.2% -4.1 27
2023-04-15 @ Cove Rangers W 2-1 1522 1338 55.2% 18.0% 26.7% +4.1 51
2023-04-18 Inverness CT L 1-2 1363 1526 29.2% 18.2% 52.6% -4.4 29
2023-04-18 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-1 1526 1363 52.6% 18.2% 29.2% +4.4 54
2023-04-21 Queen's Park D 0-0 1505 1510 50.4% 18.4% 31.2% -0.7 52
2023-04-21 @ Ayr United D 0-0 1510 1505 31.2% 18.4% 50.4% +0.7 58
2023-04-22 Cove Rangers L 0-1 1465 1334 66.0% 16.6% 17.3% -9.5 33
2023-04-22 @ Arbroath W 1-0 1334 1465 17.3% 16.6% 66.0% +9.5 30
2023-04-22 Dundee D 1-1 1531 1559 47.4% 18.5% 34.1% -0.4 55
2023-04-22 @ Inverness CT D 1-1 1559 1531 34.1% 18.5% 47.4% +0.4 59
2023-04-22 Partick Thistle D 2-2 1359 1526 28.7% 18.2% 53.1% +0.6 30
2023-04-22 @ Hamilton Academical D 2-2 1526 1359 53.1% 18.2% 28.7% -0.6 53
2023-04-22 Raith Rovers W 1-0 1473 1450 54.2% 18.1% 27.7% +4.5 51
2023-04-22 @ Greenock Morton L 0-1 1450 1473 27.7% 18.1% 54.2% -4.5 42
2023-04-28 Cove Rangers D 0-0 1560 1343 73.4% 14.9% 11.7% -2.5 60
2023-04-28 @ Dundee D 0-0 1343 1560 11.7% 14.9% 73.4% +2.5 31
2023-04-29 Arbroath W 2-0 1525 1455 59.7% 17.6% 22.7% +7.0 56
2023-04-29 @ Partick Thistle L 0-2 1455 1525 22.7% 17.6% 59.7% -7.0 33
2023-04-29 Queen's Park W 2-1 1478 1511 46.7% 18.5% 34.8% +5.1 54
2023-04-29 @ Greenock Morton L 1-2 1511 1478 34.8% 18.5% 46.7% -5.1 58
2023-04-29 Raith Rovers W 1-0 1504 1445 58.4% 17.7% 23.9% +3.9 55
2023-04-29 @ Ayr United L 0-1 1445 1504 23.9% 17.7% 58.4% -3.9 42
2023-05-05 Ayr United L 1-2 1530 1508 54.1% 18.1% 27.8% -7.5 55
2023-05-05 @ Inverness CT W 2-1 1508 1530 27.8% 18.1% 54.1% +7.5 58
2023-05-05 Dundee L 3-5 1506 1557 44.2% 18.6% 37.2% -9.2 58
2023-05-05 @ Queen's Park W 5-3 1557 1506 37.2% 18.6% 44.2% +9.2 63
2023-05-05 Greenock Morton L 1-2 1346 1483 32.4% 18.4% 49.2% -4.8 31
2023-05-05 @ Cove Rangers W 2-1 1483 1346 49.2% 18.4% 32.4% +4.8 57
2023-05-05 Hamilton Academical D 0-0 1448 1359 61.8% 17.3% 20.9% -1.6 34
2023-05-05 @ Arbroath D 0-0 1359 1448 20.9% 17.3% 61.8% +1.6 31
2023-05-05 Partick Thistle D 2-2 1441 1532 38.6% 18.6% 42.8% +0.1 43
2023-05-05 @ Raith Rovers D 2-2 1532 1441 42.8% 18.6% 38.6% -0.1 57

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2022-10-18 14.24% Hamilton Academical 1387 1 @ Inverness CT 1561 0
2 2023-02-18 15.62% Hamilton Academical 1370 3 @ Inverness CT 1524 0
3 2023-04-22 17.33% Cove Rangers 1334 1 @ Arbroath 1465 0
4 2023-01-28 18.90% Hamilton Academical 1360 1 @ Partick Thistle 1471 0
5 2023-04-04 19.24% Hamilton Academical 1365 2 @ Raith Rovers 1472 1
6 2022-08-27 19.36% Greenock Morton 1430 1 @ Inverness CT 1537 0
7 2023-03-24 20.38% Arbroath 1452 1 @ Queen's Park 1547 0
8 2022-08-20 21.08% Queen's Park 1458 2 @ Arbroath 1545 1
9 2023-01-02 21.77% Arbroath 1455 4 @ Dundee 1535 2
10 2023-02-28 22.39% Partick Thistle 1463 3 @ Dundee 1536 1
11 2023-02-04 23.26% Cove Rangers 1398 1 @ Partick Thistle 1462 0
12 2022-09-03 23.43% Partick Thistle 1467 2 @ Arbroath 1530 0
13 2022-10-04 23.66% Greenock Morton 1415 2 @ Queen's Park 1476 1
14 2022-10-19 23.71% Raith Rovers 1447 1 @ Arbroath 1507 0
15 2023-02-18 24.24% Partick Thistle 1453 1 @ Ayr United 1508 0
16 2022-10-22 24.69% Queen's Park 1445 4 @ Partick Thistle 1496 0
17 2022-07-30 26.08% Partick Thistle 1445 3 @ Dundee 1482 2
18 2022-08-05 27.31% Ayr United 1434 3 @ Queen's Park 1461 2
19 2022-10-29 27.60% Ayr United 1478 2 @ Arbroath 1502 0
20 2023-05-05 27.80% Ayr United 1508 2 @ Inverness CT 1530 1
21 2022-08-20 27.85% Ayr United 1441 2 @ Cove Rangers 1463 1
22 2023-01-28 27.89% Arbroath 1453 2 @ Greenock Morton 1474 1
23 2023-02-04 29.35% Raith Rovers 1451 2 @ Arbroath 1460 1
24 2023-03-04 29.42% Inverness CT 1492 2 @ Ayr United 1500 1
25 2022-08-20 29.56% Raith Rovers 1438 2 @ Hamilton Academical 1446 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2022-10-22 29.95 Queen's Park 4 1445 24.69% @ Partick Thistle 0 1496 57.47% 17.84%
2 2023-01-27 28.40 Ayr United 5 1489 38.81% @ Cove Rangers 0 1426 42.60% 18.60%
3 2023-02-18 26.84 Hamilton Academical 3 1370 15.62% @ Inverness CT 0 1524 68.16% 16.22%
4 2022-10-28 23.66 @ Greenock Morton 4 1450 37.43% Inverness CT 0 1549 43.98% 18.58%
5 2023-04-01 23.59 Partick Thistle 5 1485 47.46% @ Cove Rangers 0 1360 34.04% 18.49%
6 2022-10-08 22.55 @ Ayr United 5 1453 49.29% Queen's Park 0 1468 32.29% 18.42%
7 2022-10-08 20.68 @ Greenock Morton 5 1423 52.53% Hamilton Academical 0 1413 29.22% 18.24%
8 2023-01-07 19.12 @ Queen's Park 6 1521 60.34% Cove Rangers 0 1445 22.15% 17.51%
9 2023-04-07 18.49 @ Partick Thistle 4 1508 48.88% Queen's Park 0 1526 32.68% 18.44%
10 2022-12-23 17.31 @ Partick Thistle 5 1457 43.88% Inverness CT 1 1511 37.54% 18.58%
11 2022-12-23 16.40 Queen's Park 4 1497 33.73% @ Arbroath 1 1471 47.79% 18.48%
12 2022-09-03 16.14 Partick Thistle 2 1467 23.43% @ Arbroath 0 1530 58.89% 17.69%
13 2022-11-19 15.79 @ Partick Thistle 3 1435 44.18% Arbroath 0 1487 37.24% 18.58%
14 2023-01-02 15.79 @ Inverness CT 6 1494 55.30% Cove Rangers 1 1461 26.67% 18.04%
15 2023-01-07 15.75 Inverness CT 4 1509 35.87% @ Arbroath 1 1468 45.58% 18.55%
16 2022-08-19 15.53 @ Partick Thistle 4 1447 36.60% Inverness CT 1 1552 44.84% 18.57%
17 2023-04-01 15.40 @ Dundee 7 1540 68.67% Hamilton Academical 0 1380 15.22% 16.11%
18 2022-11-19 15.01 Queen's Park 5 1470 30.75% @ Raith Rovers 2 1468 50.91% 18.34%
19 2022-10-29 14.99 Ayr United 2 1478 27.60% @ Arbroath 0 1502 54.29% 18.12%
20 2022-10-08 14.94 @ Raith Rovers 3 1437 46.63% Cove Rangers 0 1471 34.85% 18.52%
21 2022-08-20 14.47 Raith Rovers 2 1438 29.56% @ Hamilton Academical 0 1446 52.17% 18.27%
22 2023-02-28 14.24 Partick Thistle 3 1463 22.39% @ Dundee 1 1536 60.07% 17.55%
23 2023-01-28 14.23 @ Dundee 3 1522 48.66% Queen's Park 0 1541 32.89% 18.45%
24 2023-03-18 13.94 @ Raith Rovers 6 1447 59.09% Cove Rangers 1 1382 23.25% 17.66%
25 2022-09-17 13.60 Queen's Park 2 1458 32.88% @ Hamilton Academical 0 1439 48.67% 18.45%