2021-22 Championship Season

180 games

Final

Promoted

—

No promotions.

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Arbroath

3.92 points above expected

65 points · 61.08 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Dunfermline Athletic

4.82 points below expected

35 points · 39.82 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Kilmarnock	36	20	7	9	67	50	27	+23	66.34	+0.66
2	Arbroath	36	17	14	5	65	54	28	+26	61.08	+3.92
3	Inverness CT	36	16	11	9	59	53	34	+19	59.26	-0.26
4	Partick Thistle	36	14	10	12	52	46	40	+6	52.30	-0.30
5	Raith Rovers	36	12	14	10	50	44	44	0	50.09	-0.09
6	Hamilton Academical	36	10	12	14	42	38	53	-15	44.59	-2.59
7	Greenock Morton	36	9	13	14	40	36	47	-11	40.61	-0.61
8	Ayr United	36	9	12	15	39	39	52	-13	39.53	-0.53
9	Dunfermline Athletic	36	7	14	15	35	36	53	-17	39.82	-4.82
10	Queen Of The South	36	8	9	19	33	36	54	-18	36.80	-3.80

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Kilmarnock	1680	67	66.34	+0.66	56.1%	41	54	61	66	71	79	92
Arbroath	1657	65	61.08	+3.92	72.3%	31	49	56	61	66	73	88
Inverness CT	1642	59	59.26	-0.26	51.3%	29	47	54	59	64	72	89
Raith Rovers	1505	50	50.09	-0.09	52.8%	21	38	45	50	55	62	76
Hamilton Academical	1499	42	44.59	-2.59	39.9%	19	33	40	44	50	57	73
Partick Thistle	1498	52	52.30	-0.30	51.7%	26	40	47	52	57	65	81
Ayr United	1482	39	39.53	-0.53	50.2%	11	28	35	39	44	52	68
Greenock Morton	1475	40	40.61	-0.61	50.1%	17	29	36	40	45	53	68
Dunfermline Athletic	1456	35	39.82	-4.82	27.7%	14	28	35	40	45	52	68
Queen Of The South	1430	33	36.80	-3.80	32.7%	14	26	32	37	41	49	66

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ARB	AU	DA	GM	HA	IC	KIL	PT	QOTS	RR
Arbroath	—	1-2-1 7.29	4-0-0 7.42	2-2-0 7.79	2-2-0 6.99	1-1-2 5.78	2-1-1 4.89	2-2-0 6.25	2-2-0 8.04	1-2-1 6.54
Ayr United	1-2-1 3.65	—	1-1-2 5.31	0-3-1 5.29	1-3-0 4.62	1-2-1 3.56	1-0-3 3.11	1-0-3 4.32	1-1-2 5.69	2-0-2 3.97
Dunfermline Athletic	0-0-4 3.54	2-1-1 5.53	—	0-2-2 5.47	1-2-1 4.83	1-2-1 3.15	0-2-2 2.82	1-1-2 4.75	1-1-2 5.65	1-3-0 4.18
Greenock Morton	0-2-2 3.17	1-3-0 5.57	2-2-0 5.36	—	1-1-2 5.03	1-0-3 3.53	0-2-2 2.91	2-1-1 4.10	1-1-2 6.24	1-1-2 4.56
Hamilton Academical	0-2-2 3.91	0-3-1 6.23	1-2-1 6.02	2-1-1 5.82	—	2-1-1 3.76	0-0-4 3.42	1-1-2 4.10	4-0-0 6.02	0-2-2 5.25
Inverness CT	2-1-1 5.06	1-2-1 7.35	1-2-1 7.80	3-0-1 7.39	1-1-2 7.15	—	3-0-1 4.49	1-2-1 5.76	2-1-1 7.89	2-2-0 6.44
Kilmarnock	1-1-2 5.95	3-0-1 7.85	2-2-0 8.18	2-2-0 8.09	4-0-0 7.52	1-0-3 6.36	—	2-1-1 7.09	4-0-0 8.16	1-1-2 7.04
Partick Thistle	0-2-2 4.60	3-0-1 6.56	2-1-1 6.13	1-1-2 6.77	2-1-1 6.80	1-2-1 5.10	1-1-2 3.82	—	3-1-0 6.89	1-1-2 5.65
Queen Of The South	0-2-2 2.97	2-1-1 5.15	2-1-1 5.20	2-1-1 4.63	0-0-4 4.84	1-1-2 3.08	0-0-4 2.85	0-1-3 4.00	—	1-2-1 4.04
Raith Rovers	1-2-1 4.33	2-0-2 6.93	0-3-1 6.71	2-1-1 6.30	2-2-0 5.62	0-2-2 4.41	2-1-1 3.86	2-1-1 5.19	1-2-1 6.85	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.91	+16.3
Allowed	0.96	-11.5
Differential	0.97	+7.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	10.00%	11.67%	5.00%	3.33%	1.94%	0.28%	32.22%
1	11.67%	12.78%	6.94%	1.94%	0.28%	0.83%	34.44%
2	5.00%	6.94%	6.67%	1.39%	0.28%	—	20.28%
3	3.33%	1.94%	1.39%	2.22%	—	—	8.89%
4	1.94%	0.28%	0.28%	—	0.56%	—	3.06%
5+	0.28%	0.83%	—	—	—	—	1.11%
Total	32.22%	34.44%	20.28%	8.89%	3.06%	1.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.20	1.20	+0.00
SD	1.16	1.16	1.66
CV	0.97	0.97	—
Max	6	6	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	5.56%	—	2.78%	—	—	25.00%
1	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	5.56%	8.33%	—	—	—	19.44%
3	8.33%	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	—	13.89%
4	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	50.00%	27.78%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	0.78	+0.72
SD	1.32	0.93	1.49
CV	0.88	1.19	—
Max	5	3	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	13.89%	8.33%	5.56%	5.56%	—	36.11%
1	2.78%	19.44%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	30.56%
2	5.56%	8.33%	11.11%	—	—	—	25.00%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.89%	47.22%	25.00%	8.33%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.08	1.44	-0.36
SD	1.05	1.03	1.73
CV	0.97	0.71	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.89%	11.11%	5.56%	8.33%	—	2.78%	41.67%
1	2.78%	13.89%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	5.56%	8.33%	—	2.78%	—	22.22%
3	2.78%	—	—	2.78%	—	—	5.56%
4	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	33.33%	19.44%	16.67%	2.78%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	1.47	-0.47
SD	1.07	1.28	1.68
CV	1.07	0.87	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	13.89%	5.56%	8.33%	—	—	38.89%
1	11.11%	13.89%	5.56%	—	—	2.78%	33.33%
2	2.78%	5.56%	11.11%	2.78%	—	—	22.22%
3	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	27.78%	36.11%	22.22%	11.11%	—	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	1.31	-0.31
SD	1.10	1.26	1.72
CV	1.10	0.97	—
Max	5	6	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	2.78%	5.56%	—	36.11%
1	13.89%	16.67%	2.78%	—	—	2.78%	36.11%
2	—	8.33%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	19.44%
3	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
4	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	36.11%	22.22%	5.56%	8.33%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.06	1.47	-0.42
SD	1.09	1.40	1.81
CV	1.04	0.95	—
Max	4	6	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	19.44%
1	16.67%	11.11%	13.89%	—	—	—	41.67%
2	5.56%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	11.11%
4	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	36.11%	36.11%	25.00%	2.78%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.47	0.94	+0.53
SD	1.28	0.86	1.42
CV	0.87	0.91	—
Max	6	3	+5
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
1	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	30.56%
2	19.44%	13.89%	2.78%	—	—	—	36.11%
3	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	8.33%
4	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	41.67%	44.44%	11.11%	2.78%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.39	0.75	+0.64
SD	1.02	0.77	1.36
CV	0.74	1.03	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	2.78%	—	30.56%
1	22.22%	5.56%	5.56%	8.33%	2.78%	—	44.44%
2	—	—	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	5.56%
3	5.56%	—	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	50.00%	13.89%	16.67%	13.89%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	1.11	+0.17
SD	1.41	1.33	1.95
CV	1.10	1.19	—
Max	6	4	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	16.67%	8.33%	2.78%	2.78%	—	38.89%
1	8.33%	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	2.78%	36.11%
2	—	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	11.11%
3	5.56%	—	2.78%	5.56%	—	—	13.89%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	30.56%	30.56%	11.11%	2.78%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	1.50	-0.50
SD	1.04	1.21	1.52
CV	1.04	0.80	—
Max	3	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	—	33.33%
1	11.11%	16.67%	2.78%	—	—	—	30.56%
2	5.56%	8.33%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	19.44%
3	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	5.56%	—	—	13.89%
4	—	—	—	—	2.78%	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	30.56%	38.89%	13.89%	11.11%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	1.22	+0.00
SD	1.15	1.17	1.39
CV	0.94	0.96	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Arbroath	65	61.08	+3.92
2	Kilmarnock	67	66.34	+0.66
3	Raith Rovers	50	50.09	-0.09
4	Inverness CT	59	59.26	-0.26
5	Partick Thistle	52	52.30	-0.30

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Dunfermline Athletic	35	39.82	-4.82
2	Queen Of The South	33	36.80	-3.80
3	Hamilton Academical	42	44.59	-2.59
4	Greenock Morton	40	40.61	-0.61
5	Ayr United	39	39.53	-0.53

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Inverness CT	5	Jul 31 – Sep 11	1 in 105
2	Arbroath	4	Aug 21 – Sep 18	1 in 37
3	Partick Thistle	3	Nov 6 – Nov 20	1 in 21
4	Dunfermline Athletic	2	Nov 13 – Nov 20	1 in 17
5	Queen Of The South	2	Feb 26 – Mar 5	1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Partick Thistle	4	Mar 12 – Mar 26	1 in 124
2	Queen Of The South	6	Mar 8 – Apr 16	1 in 45
3	Greenock Morton	4	Aug 21 – Sep 18	1 in 41
4	Kilmarnock	3	Nov 20 – Dec 11	1 in 37
5	Dunfermline Athletic	3	Aug 7 – Sep 11	1 in 33

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Raith Rovers	13	Sep 18 – Dec 11	1 in 170
2	Greenock Morton	6	Dec 29 – Feb 12	1 in 33
3	Arbroath	11	Oct 23 – Jan 2	1 in 31
4	Partick Thistle	9	Oct 2 – Dec 4	1 in 27
5	Hamilton Academical	5	Jan 29 – Feb 25	1 in 17

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Inverness CT	11	Dec 18 – Mar 4	1 in 1,216
2	Raith Rovers	11	Dec 18 – Mar 5	1 in 557
3	Dunfermline Athletic	13	Jul 31 – Nov 6	1 in 107
4	Greenock Morton	10	Aug 21 – Oct 30	1 in 28
5	Queen Of The South	9	Oct 16 – Dec 11	1 in 14

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Kilmarnock	53.73%	25.81%	12.55%	5.03%	1.99%	0.64%	0.19%	0.05%	0.01%	—
Arbroath	23.82%	31.30%	22.52%	12.24%	5.86%	2.47%	1.19%	0.38%	0.20%	0.02%
Inverness CT	16.53%	25.83%	26.93%	15.89%	8.60%	3.76%	1.45%	0.64%	0.31%	0.06%
Partick Thistle	3.60%	8.27%	17.02%	24.56%	20.11%	12.65%	6.93%	4.16%	1.98%	0.72%
Raith Rovers	1.80%	5.70%	11.98%	20.84%	22.25%	15.84%	10.46%	6.33%	3.30%	1.50%
Hamilton Academical	0.35%	1.71%	4.36%	8.95%	14.64%	18.92%	18.41%	14.27%	11.54%	6.85%
Greenock Morton	0.05%	0.54%	1.74%	4.12%	8.54%	14.12%	17.13%	19.10%	18.35%	16.31%
Ayr United	0.04%	0.45%	1.17%	3.34%	6.93%	12.03%	16.69%	18.38%	20.25%	20.72%
Dunfermline Athletic	0.05%	0.33%	1.31%	3.37%	7.26%	12.12%	15.88%	19.53%	20.71%	19.44%
Queen Of The South	0.03%	0.06%	0.42%	1.66%	3.82%	7.45%	11.67%	17.16%	23.35%	34.38%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+6.67%

Slight Edge

37.22%32.22%30.56%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 23.20 Elo pts.

320 Elo

0.003 goals per Elo point

0800

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.10 goals

Neutral

-2+0.07+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.7

Top-Heavy

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

54%

Kilmarnock, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.06/gm

Photo Finish

00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.86 * Some Luck: 5.86 to 8.78 * Lucky: 8.78 to 11.71 * Wild Swing: 11.71 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.08 * Close: 1.08 to 1.63 * Off: 1.63 to 2.17 * Way Off: 2.17 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

2.32 points

As Expected

07.3218

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.20

Pinpoint

01.363

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

72.26%

Arbroath

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

27.71%

Dunfermline Athletic

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.14

Even

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.37

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

68%

Slight Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

81%

Clear Edge

50%85%100%

Close Games

Expected

72%

Very Frequent

0%63%100%

Blowouts

Expected

13%

Occasional

0%13%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.66

Hard to Predict

00.622

Matchup Imbalance

0.33

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.12

Very Predictable

01.002

Repeatability

0.45

Some Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

26%

As Expected

0%24%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

24%

As Expected

0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.

Probability calibration

0.03

Miscalibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.68

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.063

Well Within Noise

00.1290.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Direct promotion	Qualified for promotion playoff	Same level	Direct relegation
Kilmarnock	53.73%	43.39%	2.88%	—
Arbroath	23.82%	66.06%	10.10%	0.02%
Inverness CT	16.53%	68.65%	14.76%	0.06%
Partick Thistle	3.60%	49.85%	45.83%	0.72%
Raith Rovers	1.80%	38.52%	58.18%	1.50%
Hamilton Academical	0.35%	15.02%	77.78%	6.85%
Greenock Morton	0.05%	6.40%	77.24%	16.31%
Dunfermline Athletic	0.05%	5.01%	75.50%	19.44%
Ayr United	0.04%	4.96%	74.28%	20.72%
Queen Of The South	0.03%	2.14%	63.45%	34.38%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
2021-07-31	Dunfermline Athletic	D 2-2	1492	1541	35.2%	29.3%	35.5%	+0.0	1
2021-07-31	@ Greenock Morton	D 2-2	1541	1492	35.5%	29.3%	35.2%	-0.0	1
2021-07-31	Hamilton Academical	D 4-4	1515	1572	34.1%	29.3%	36.6%	+0.1	1
2021-07-31	@ Raith Rovers	D 4-4	1572	1515	36.6%	29.3%	34.1%	-0.1	1
2021-07-31	Inverness CT	L 0-1	1532	1567	37.1%	29.3%	33.6%	-10.6	0
2021-07-31	@ Arbroath	W 1-0	1567	1532	33.6%	29.3%	37.1%	+10.6	3
2021-07-31	Queen Of The South	W 3-2	1473	1489	39.8%	29.2%	31.0%	+8.3	3
2021-07-31	@ Partick Thistle	L 2-3	1489	1473	31.0%	29.2%	39.8%	-8.3	0
2021-08-02	Ayr United	W 2-0	1634	1510	57.1%	26.1%	16.8%	+10.4	3
2021-08-02	@ Kilmarnock	L 0-2	1510	1634	16.8%	26.1%	57.1%	-10.4	0
2021-08-07	Arbroath	D 2-2	1499	1522	38.9%	29.2%	31.9%	-0.3	1
2021-08-07	@ Ayr United	D 2-2	1522	1499	31.9%	29.2%	38.9%	+0.3	1
2021-08-07	Greenock Morton	L 0-1	1571	1492	52.1%	27.5%	20.4%	-13.8	1
2021-08-07	@ Hamilton Academical	W 1-0	1492	1571	20.4%	27.5%	52.1%	+13.8	4
2021-08-07	Kilmarnock	L 0-1	1480	1644	21.4%	27.8%	50.8%	-6.9	0
2021-08-07	@ Queen Of The South	W 1-0	1644	1480	50.8%	27.8%	21.4%	+6.9	6
2021-08-07	Partick Thistle	L 0-3	1541	1481	49.7%	28.0%	22.3%	-36.3	1
2021-08-07	@ Dunfermline Athletic	W 3-0	1481	1541	22.3%	28.0%	49.7%	+36.3	6
2021-08-07	Raith Rovers	W 1-0	1578	1515	50.1%	27.9%	22.0%	+7.1	6
2021-08-07	@ Inverness CT	L 0-1	1515	1578	22.0%	27.9%	50.1%	-7.1	1
2021-08-21	Ayr United	W 1-0	1585	1499	52.8%	27.3%	19.9%	+6.5	9
2021-08-21	@ Inverness CT	L 0-1	1499	1585	19.9%	27.3%	52.8%	-6.5	1
2021-08-21	Kilmarnock	L 0-2	1558	1651	29.1%	29.1%	41.8%	-16.7	1
2021-08-21	@ Hamilton Academical	W 2-0	1651	1558	41.8%	29.1%	29.1%	+16.7	9
2021-08-21	Partick Thistle	W 3-1	1522	1517	42.7%	29.0%	28.3%	+14.2	4
2021-08-21	@ Arbroath	L 1-3	1517	1522	28.3%	29.0%	42.7%	-14.2	6
2021-08-21	Queen Of The South	L 2-3	1506	1474	46.3%	28.6%	25.1%	-11.2	4
2021-08-21	@ Greenock Morton	W 3-2	1474	1506	25.1%	28.6%	46.3%	+11.2	3
2021-08-28	Arbroath	L 0-3	1504	1536	37.6%	29.3%	33.1%	-29.2	1
2021-08-28	@ Dunfermline Athletic	W 3-0	1536	1504	33.1%	29.3%	37.6%	+29.2	7
2021-08-28	Greenock Morton	W 3-0	1503	1495	43.1%	28.9%	27.9%	+23.5	9
2021-08-28	@ Partick Thistle	L 0-3	1495	1503	27.9%	28.9%	43.1%	-23.5	4
2021-08-28	Hamilton Academical	L 1-2	1485	1541	34.1%	29.3%	36.6%	-9.4	3
2021-08-28	@ Queen Of The South	W 2-1	1541	1485	36.6%	29.3%	34.1%	+9.4	4
2021-08-28	Inverness CT	L 0-1	1668	1592	51.7%	27.6%	20.7%	-13.7	9
2021-08-28	@ Kilmarnock	W 1-0	1592	1668	20.7%	27.6%	51.7%	+13.7	12
2021-09-07	Raith Rovers	L 0-2	1493	1508	39.9%	29.2%	30.9%	-21.0	1
2021-09-07	@ Ayr United	W 2-0	1508	1493	30.9%	29.2%	39.9%	+21.0	4
2021-09-11	Dunfermline Athletic	W 3-1	1472	1475	41.5%	29.1%	29.4%	+14.5	4
2021-09-11	@ Ayr United	L 1-3	1475	1472	29.4%	29.1%	41.5%	-14.5	1
2021-09-11	Greenock Morton	W 1-0	1654	1471	63.1%	23.9%	13.1%	+4.3	12
2021-09-11	@ Kilmarnock	L 0-1	1471	1654	13.1%	23.9%	63.1%	-4.3	4
2021-09-11	Hamilton Academical	W 4-0	1566	1550	44.0%	28.9%	27.1%	+30.0	10
2021-09-11	@ Arbroath	L 0-4	1550	1566	27.1%	28.9%	44.0%	-30.0	4
2021-09-11	Partick Thistle	W 3-1	1605	1527	52.0%	27.5%	20.5%	+10.9	15
2021-09-11	@ Inverness CT	L 1-3	1527	1605	20.5%	27.5%	52.0%	-10.9	9
2021-09-11	Queen Of The South	L 0-1	1529	1475	49.0%	28.1%	22.9%	-13.1	4
2021-09-11	@ Raith Rovers	W 1-0	1475	1529	22.9%	28.1%	49.0%	+13.1	6
2021-09-18	Arbroath	L 0-2	1488	1596	27.5%	28.9%	43.6%	-16.0	6
2021-09-18	@ Queen Of The South	W 2-0	1596	1488	43.6%	28.9%	27.5%	+16.0	13
2021-09-18	Ayr United	L 0-2	1520	1486	46.5%	28.5%	24.9%	-23.7	4
2021-09-18	@ Hamilton Academical	W 2-0	1486	1520	24.9%	28.5%	46.5%	+23.7	7
2021-09-18	Inverness CT	D 0-0	1461	1616	22.2%	28.0%	49.8%	+1.8	2
2021-09-18	@ Dunfermline Athletic	D 0-0	1616	1461	49.8%	28.0%	22.2%	-1.8	16
2021-09-18	Kilmarnock	L 0-2	1516	1659	23.5%	28.3%	48.2%	-14.1	9
2021-09-18	@ Partick Thistle	W 2-0	1659	1516	48.2%	28.3%	23.5%	+14.1	15
2021-09-18	Raith Rovers	L 0-1	1467	1516	35.1%	29.3%	35.6%	-10.2	4
2021-09-18	@ Greenock Morton	W 1-0	1516	1467	35.6%	29.3%	35.1%	+10.2	7
2021-09-24	Kilmarnock	D 0-0	1611	1673	33.4%	29.3%	37.3%	+0.2	14
2021-09-24	@ Arbroath	D 0-0	1673	1611	37.3%	29.3%	33.4%	-0.2	16
2021-09-25	Greenock Morton	D 0-0	1510	1457	48.9%	28.1%	22.9%	-1.7	8
2021-09-25	@ Ayr United	D 0-0	1457	1510	22.9%	28.1%	48.9%	+1.7	5
2021-09-25	Hamilton Academical	D 0-0	1462	1497	37.2%	29.3%	33.5%	-0.2	3
2021-09-25	@ Dunfermline Athletic	D 0-0	1497	1462	33.5%	29.3%	37.2%	+0.2	5
2021-09-25	Queen Of The South	W 2-1	1614	1472	59.0%	25.5%	15.6%	+4.8	19
2021-09-25	@ Inverness CT	L 1-2	1472	1614	15.6%	25.5%	59.0%	-4.8	6
2021-09-26	Partick Thistle	W 3-2	1526	1502	45.3%	28.7%	26.0%	+7.2	10
2021-09-26	@ Raith Rovers	L 2-3	1502	1526	26.0%	28.7%	45.3%	-7.3	9
2021-09-29	Dunfermline Athletic	D 1-1	1533	1462	51.1%	27.7%	21.2%	-1.7	11
2021-09-29	@ Raith Rovers	D 1-1	1462	1533	21.2%	27.7%	51.1%	+1.7	4
2021-10-02	Arbroath	D 2-2	1458	1612	22.4%	28.0%	49.5%	+1.2	6
2021-10-02	@ Greenock Morton	D 2-2	1612	1458	49.5%	28.0%	22.4%	-1.2	15
2021-10-02	Ayr United	W 4-0	1494	1508	40.1%	29.2%	30.7%	+33.0	12
2021-10-02	@ Partick Thistle	L 0-4	1508	1494	30.7%	29.2%	40.1%	-33.0	8
2021-10-02	Dunfermline Athletic	W 1-0	1468	1464	42.5%	29.0%	28.5%	+8.7	9
2021-10-02	@ Queen Of The South	L 0-1	1464	1468	28.5%	29.0%	42.5%	-8.7	4
2021-10-02	Inverness CT	W 2-1	1497	1619	25.7%	28.7%	45.6%	+11.6	8
2021-10-02	@ Hamilton Academical	L 1-2	1619	1497	45.6%	28.7%	25.7%	-11.7	19
2021-10-02	Raith Rovers	L 1-3	1672	1532	58.8%	25.5%	15.6%	-24.9	16
2021-10-02	@ Kilmarnock	W 3-1	1532	1672	15.6%	25.5%	58.8%	+24.9	14
2021-10-15	Partick Thistle	L 1-6	1509	1527	39.4%	29.2%	31.4%	-40.3	8
2021-10-15	@ Hamilton Academical	W 6-1	1527	1509	31.4%	29.2%	39.4%	+40.3	15
2021-10-16	Arbroath	W 2-1	1557	1611	34.4%	29.3%	36.3%	+9.8	17
2021-10-16	@ Raith Rovers	L 1-2	1611	1557	36.3%	29.3%	34.4%	-9.8	15
2021-10-16	Greenock Morton	W 2-0	1608	1460	59.6%	25.2%	15.2%	+9.4	22
2021-10-16	@ Inverness CT	L 0-2	1460	1608	15.2%	25.2%	59.6%	-9.4	6
2021-10-16	Kilmarnock	D 2-2	1455	1647	18.9%	27.0%	54.1%	+1.5	5
2021-10-16	@ Dunfermline Athletic	D 2-2	1647	1455	54.1%	27.0%	18.9%	-1.5	17
2021-10-16	Queen Of The South	W 2-1	1475	1476	41.9%	29.1%	29.1%	+8.3	11
2021-10-16	@ Ayr United	L 1-2	1476	1475	29.1%	29.1%	41.9%	-8.3	9
2021-10-23	Ayr United	D 1-1	1601	1484	56.3%	26.4%	17.3%	-2.3	16
2021-10-23	@ Arbroath	D 1-1	1484	1601	17.3%	26.4%	56.3%	+2.3	12
2021-10-23	Dunfermline Athletic	D 0-0	1568	1457	55.6%	26.6%	17.8%	-2.5	16
2021-10-23	@ Partick Thistle	D 0-0	1457	1568	17.8%	26.6%	55.6%	+2.5	6
2021-10-23	Greenock Morton	D 0-0	1468	1450	44.4%	28.8%	26.8%	-1.1	10
2021-10-23	@ Queen Of The South	D 0-0	1450	1468	26.8%	28.8%	44.4%	+1.1	7
2021-10-23	Hamilton Academical	W 2-1	1646	1468	62.6%	24.1%	13.4%	+4.1	20
2021-10-23	@ Kilmarnock	L 1-2	1468	1646	13.4%	24.1%	62.6%	-4.1	8
2021-10-23	Inverness CT	D 1-1	1566	1617	34.9%	29.3%	35.8%	+0.1	18
2021-10-23	@ Raith Rovers	D 1-1	1617	1566	35.8%	29.3%	34.9%	-0.0	23
2021-10-26	Arbroath	L 0-1	1617	1598	44.5%	28.8%	26.7%	-12.1	23
2021-10-26	@ Inverness CT	W 1-0	1598	1617	26.7%	28.8%	44.5%	+12.1	19
2021-10-26	Kilmarnock	L 0-1	1486	1650	21.4%	27.8%	50.8%	-6.9	12
2021-10-26	@ Ayr United	W 1-0	1650	1486	50.8%	27.8%	21.4%	+6.9	23
2021-10-26	Partick Thistle	D 0-0	1451	1565	26.7%	28.8%	44.5%	+1.1	8
2021-10-26	@ Greenock Morton	D 0-0	1565	1451	44.5%	28.8%	26.7%	-1.1	17
2021-10-26	Queen Of The South	W 1-0	1464	1467	41.6%	29.1%	29.3%	+8.9	11
2021-10-26	@ Hamilton Academical	L 0-1	1467	1464	29.3%	29.1%	41.6%	-8.9	10
2021-10-26	Raith Rovers	D 1-1	1459	1566	27.5%	28.9%	43.6%	+0.9	7
2021-10-26	@ Dunfermline Athletic	D 1-1	1566	1459	43.6%	28.9%	27.5%	-0.9	19
2021-10-30	Ayr United	W 2-1	1566	1479	52.9%	27.3%	19.8%	+6.1	22
2021-10-30	@ Raith Rovers	L 1-2	1479	1566	19.8%	27.3%	52.9%	-6.1	12
2021-10-30	Dunfermline Athletic	W 4-2	1611	1460	59.8%	25.2%	15.0%	+7.2	22
2021-10-30	@ Arbroath	L 2-4	1460	1611	15.0%	25.2%	59.8%	-7.2	7
2021-10-30	Hamilton Academical	D 1-1	1452	1473	39.2%	29.2%	31.6%	-0.4	9
2021-10-30	@ Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1473	1452	31.6%	29.2%	39.2%	+0.4	12
2021-10-30	Inverness CT	D 0-0	1564	1605	36.3%	29.3%	34.4%	-0.1	18
2021-10-30	@ Partick Thistle	D 0-0	1605	1564	34.4%	29.3%	36.3%	+0.1	24
2021-10-30	Queen Of The South	W 4-0	1657	1458	64.6%	23.2%	12.2%	+14.2	26
2021-10-30	@ Kilmarnock	L 0-4	1458	1657	12.2%	23.2%	64.6%	-14.2	10
2021-11-06	Arbroath	D 1-1	1473	1618	23.4%	28.2%	48.4%	+1.4	13
2021-11-06	@ Hamilton Academical	D 1-1	1618	1473	48.4%	28.2%	23.4%	-1.4	23
2021-11-06	Greenock Morton	L 1-3	1453	1452	42.1%	29.0%	28.8%	-19.0	7
2021-11-06	@ Dunfermline Athletic	W 3-1	1452	1453	28.8%	29.0%	42.1%	+19.0	12
2021-11-06	Inverness CT	D 2-2	1473	1605	24.7%	28.5%	46.9%	+0.9	13
2021-11-06	@ Ayr United	D 2-2	1605	1473	46.9%	28.5%	24.7%	-0.9	25
2021-11-06	Partick Thistle	L 0-1	1671	1564	55.2%	26.7%	18.1%	-14.5	26
2021-11-06	@ Kilmarnock	W 1-0	1564	1671	18.1%	26.7%	55.2%	+14.5	21
2021-11-06	Raith Rovers	D 1-1	1444	1572	25.1%	28.6%	46.3%	+1.2	11
2021-11-06	@ Queen Of The South	D 1-1	1572	1444	46.3%	28.6%	25.1%	-1.2	23
2021-11-13	Dunfermline Athletic	L 1-2	1604	1434	61.8%	24.4%	13.8%	-15.0	25
2021-11-13	@ Inverness CT	W 2-1	1434	1604	13.8%	24.4%	61.8%	+15.0	10
2021-11-13	Kilmarnock	L 0-2	1471	1657	19.4%	27.2%	53.4%	-12.0	12
2021-11-13	@ Greenock Morton	W 2-0	1657	1471	53.4%	27.2%	19.4%	+12.0	29
2021-11-13	Partick Thistle	L 0-4	1474	1578	27.8%	28.9%	43.3%	-30.5	13
2021-11-13	@ Ayr United	W 4-0	1578	1474	43.3%	28.9%	27.8%	+30.6	24
2021-11-13	Queen Of The South	D 1-1	1616	1445	61.9%	24.3%	13.7%	-2.9	24
2021-11-13	@ Arbroath	D 1-1	1445	1616	13.7%	24.3%	61.9%	+2.9	12
2021-11-13	Raith Rovers	L 0-3	1475	1570	28.9%	29.0%	42.1%	-24.1	13
2021-11-13	@ Hamilton Academical	W 3-0	1570	1475	42.1%	29.0%	28.9%	+24.1	26
2021-11-19	Inverness CT	L 1-2	1448	1589	23.7%	28.3%	48.0%	-7.1	12
2021-11-19	@ Queen Of The South	W 2-1	1589	1448	48.0%	28.3%	23.7%	+7.1	28
2021-11-20	Arbroath	L 0-1	1669	1613	49.2%	28.1%	22.7%	-13.1	29
2021-11-20	@ Kilmarnock	W 1-0	1613	1669	22.7%	28.1%	49.2%	+13.1	27
2021-11-20	Ayr United	W 3-0	1449	1443	42.8%	29.0%	28.3%	+23.7	13
2021-11-20	@ Dunfermline Athletic	L 0-3	1443	1449	28.3%	29.0%	42.8%	-23.7	13
2021-11-20	Greenock Morton	W 2-1	1594	1459	58.3%	25.7%	16.0%	+5.0	29
2021-11-20	@ Raith Rovers	L 1-2	1459	1594	16.0%	25.7%	58.3%	-5.0	12
2021-11-20	Hamilton Academical	W 1-0	1609	1451	60.6%	24.9%	14.5%	+4.8	27
2021-11-20	@ Partick Thistle	L 0-1	1451	1609	14.5%	24.9%	60.6%	-4.8	13
2021-12-03	Kilmarnock	W 1-0	1596	1656	33.7%	29.3%	37.0%	+10.5	31
2021-12-03	@ Inverness CT	L 0-1	1656	1596	37.0%	29.3%	33.7%	-10.5	29
2021-12-04	Ayr United	D 2-2	1454	1420	46.5%	28.5%	24.9%	-0.9	13
2021-12-04	@ Greenock Morton	D 2-2	1420	1454	24.9%	28.5%	46.5%	+0.9	14
2021-12-04	Dunfermline Athletic	W 1-0	1446	1473	38.3%	29.3%	32.4%	+9.6	16
2021-12-04	@ Hamilton Academical	L 0-1	1473	1446	32.4%	29.3%	38.3%	-9.6	13
2021-12-04	Partick Thistle	D 0-0	1441	1614	20.6%	27.5%	51.9%	+2.0	13
2021-12-04	@ Queen Of The South	D 0-0	1614	1441	51.9%	27.5%	20.6%	-2.0	28
2021-12-04	Raith Rovers	D 0-0	1627	1599	45.6%	28.7%	25.7%	-1.2	28
2021-12-04	@ Arbroath	D 0-0	1599	1627	25.7%	28.7%	45.6%	+1.2	30
2021-12-10	Hamilton Academical	D 1-1	1421	1456	37.1%	29.3%	33.6%	-0.2	15
2021-12-10	@ Ayr United	D 1-1	1456	1421	33.6%	29.3%	37.1%	+0.2	17
2021-12-11	Arbroath	L 0-2	1612	1625	40.1%	29.2%	30.7%	-21.1	28
2021-12-11	@ Partick Thistle	W 2-0	1625	1612	30.7%	29.2%	40.1%	+21.1	31
2021-12-11	Inverness CT	L 1-6	1453	1607	22.4%	28.0%	49.5%	-26.2	13
2021-12-11	@ Greenock Morton	W 6-1	1607	1453	49.5%	28.0%	22.4%	+26.2	34
2021-12-11	Kilmarnock	W 1-0	1601	1645	35.8%	29.3%	34.9%	+10.1	33
2021-12-11	@ Raith Rovers	L 0-1	1645	1601	34.9%	29.3%	35.8%	-10.1	29
2021-12-11	Queen Of The South	D 3-3	1463	1443	44.7%	28.8%	26.5%	-0.6	14
2021-12-11	@ Dunfermline Athletic	D 3-3	1443	1463	26.5%	28.8%	44.7%	+0.6	14
2021-12-18	Ayr United	W 3-0	1444	1420	45.1%	28.7%	26.2%	+22.3	17
2021-12-18	@ Queen Of The South	L 0-3	1420	1444	26.2%	28.7%	45.1%	-22.3	15
2021-12-18	Greenock Morton	W 2-1	1646	1427	66.5%	22.3%	11.2%	+3.4	34
2021-12-18	@ Arbroath	L 1-2	1427	1646	11.2%	22.3%	66.5%	-3.4	13
2021-12-18	Hamilton Academical	L 1-2	1633	1456	62.5%	24.1%	13.4%	-15.1	34
2021-12-18	@ Inverness CT	W 2-1	1456	1633	13.4%	24.1%	62.5%	+15.1	20
2021-12-18	Raith Rovers	W 1-0	1591	1611	39.2%	29.2%	31.6%	+9.4	31
2021-12-18	@ Partick Thistle	L 0-1	1611	1591	31.6%	29.2%	39.2%	-9.4	33
2021-12-26	Arbroath	L 0-3	1462	1650	19.3%	27.1%	53.5%	-17.3	14
2021-12-26	@ Dunfermline Athletic	W 3-0	1650	1462	53.5%	27.1%	19.3%	+17.3	37
2021-12-26	Kilmarnock	L 2-3	1471	1635	21.4%	27.8%	50.8%	-6.2	20
2021-12-26	@ Hamilton Academical	W 3-2	1635	1471	50.8%	27.8%	21.4%	+6.2	32
2021-12-26	Raith Rovers	W 2-0	1398	1601	18.0%	26.6%	55.4%	+27.3	18
2021-12-26	@ Ayr United	L 0-2	1601	1398	55.4%	26.6%	18.0%	-27.3	33
2021-12-29	Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1641	1424	66.3%	22.4%	11.3%	-3.4	33
2021-12-29	@ Kilmarnock	D 1-1	1424	1641	11.3%	22.4%	66.3%	+3.4	14
2022-01-02	Dunfermline Athletic	D 0-0	1574	1445	57.6%	25.9%	16.5%	-2.8	34
2022-01-02	@ Raith Rovers	D 0-0	1445	1574	16.5%	25.9%	57.6%	+2.8	15
2022-01-02	Hamilton Academical	L 0-3	1466	1465	42.2%	29.0%	28.8%	-31.8	17
2022-01-02	@ Queen Of The South	W 3-0	1465	1466	28.8%	29.0%	42.2%	+31.8	23
2022-01-02	Inverness CT	D 0-0	1667	1618	48.4%	28.2%	23.3%	-1.6	38
2022-01-02	@ Arbroath	D 0-0	1618	1667	23.3%	28.2%	48.4%	+1.6	35
2022-01-08	Arbroath	W 1-0	1425	1665	15.4%	25.4%	59.3%	+15.3	21
2022-01-08	@ Ayr United	L 0-1	1665	1425	59.3%	25.4%	15.4%	-15.3	38
2022-01-08	Dunfermline Athletic	W 5-0	1427	1448	39.1%	29.2%	31.7%	+41.5	17
2022-01-08	@ Greenock Morton	L 0-5	1448	1427	31.7%	29.2%	39.1%	-41.5	15
2022-01-08	Kilmarnock	L 0-2	1434	1638	18.0%	26.6%	55.4%	-11.1	17
2022-01-08	@ Queen Of The South	W 2-0	1638	1434	55.4%	26.6%	18.0%	+11.1	36
2022-01-08	Partick Thistle	D 2-2	1497	1600	27.9%	28.9%	43.1%	+0.6	24
2022-01-08	@ Hamilton Academical	D 2-2	1600	1497	43.1%	28.9%	27.9%	-0.6	32
2022-01-08	Raith Rovers	D 1-1	1619	1571	48.3%	28.3%	23.5%	-1.4	36
2022-01-08	@ Inverness CT	D 1-1	1571	1619	23.5%	28.3%	48.3%	+1.4	35
2022-01-14	Kilmarnock	D 1-1	1599	1649	35.1%	29.3%	35.6%	+0.0	33
2022-01-14	@ Partick Thistle	D 1-1	1649	1599	35.6%	29.3%	35.1%	-0.0	37
2022-01-15	Arbroath	L 1-2	1573	1650	31.2%	29.2%	39.6%	-8.8	35
2022-01-15	@ Raith Rovers	W 2-1	1650	1573	39.6%	29.2%	31.2%	+8.8	41
2022-01-15	Greenock Morton	L 0-2	1441	1468	38.2%	29.3%	32.6%	-20.3	21
2022-01-15	@ Ayr United	W 2-0	1468	1441	32.6%	29.3%	38.2%	+20.3	20
2022-01-15	Hamilton Academical	W 1-0	1406	1497	29.5%	29.1%	41.4%	+11.5	18
2022-01-15	@ Dunfermline Athletic	L 0-1	1497	1406	41.4%	29.1%	29.5%	-11.5	24
2022-01-15	Queen Of The South	D 2-2	1618	1423	64.2%	23.4%	12.4%	-2.4	37
2022-01-15	@ Inverness CT	D 2-2	1423	1618	12.4%	23.4%	64.2%	+2.4	18
2022-01-22	Inverness CT	D 1-1	1418	1616	18.4%	26.8%	54.7%	+2.1	19
2022-01-22	@ Dunfermline Athletic	D 1-1	1616	1418	54.7%	26.8%	18.4%	-2.1	38
2022-01-28	Raith Rovers	D 2-2	1489	1564	31.5%	29.2%	39.3%	+0.3	21
2022-01-28	@ Greenock Morton	D 2-2	1564	1489	39.3%	29.2%	31.5%	-0.3	36
2022-01-29	Ayr United	D 1-1	1486	1420	50.4%	27.9%	21.8%	-1.7	25
2022-01-29	@ Hamilton Academical	D 1-1	1420	1486	21.8%	27.9%	50.4%	+1.7	22
2022-01-29	Dunfermline Athletic	L 0-2	1425	1420	42.7%	29.0%	28.3%	-22.1	18
2022-01-29	@ Queen Of The South	W 2-0	1420	1425	28.3%	29.0%	42.7%	+22.1	22
2022-01-29	Inverness CT	W 1-0	1649	1613	46.7%	28.5%	24.8%	+7.8	40
2022-01-29	@ Kilmarnock	L 0-1	1613	1649	24.8%	28.5%	46.7%	-7.8	38
2022-02-01	Ayr United	W 1-0	1599	1422	62.5%	24.1%	13.4%	+4.4	36
2022-02-01	@ Partick Thistle	L 0-1	1422	1599	13.4%	24.1%	62.5%	-4.4	22
2022-02-01	Queen Of The South	D 3-3	1564	1403	60.9%	24.8%	14.4%	-1.8	37
2022-02-01	@ Raith Rovers	D 3-3	1403	1564	14.4%	24.8%	60.9%	+1.8	19
2022-02-04	Kilmarnock	W 1-0	1659	1657	42.3%	29.0%	28.7%	+8.7	44
2022-02-04	@ Arbroath	L 0-1	1657	1659	28.7%	29.0%	42.3%	-8.7	40
2022-02-05	Dunfermline Athletic	D 1-1	1418	1442	38.6%	29.2%	32.1%	-0.4	23
2022-02-05	@ Ayr United	D 1-1	1442	1418	32.1%	29.2%	38.6%	+0.3	23
2022-02-05	Greenock Morton	L 0-1	1606	1489	56.3%	26.4%	17.4%	-14.7	38
2022-02-05	@ Inverness CT	W 1-0	1489	1606	17.4%	26.4%	56.3%	+14.7	24
2022-02-05	Hamilton Academical	D 0-0	1562	1484	51.9%	27.5%	20.6%	-2.0	38
2022-02-05	@ Raith Rovers	D 0-0	1484	1562	20.6%	27.5%	51.9%	+2.0	26
2022-02-09	Ayr United	L 1-2	1648	1417	67.5%	21.8%	10.7%	-16.0	40
2022-02-09	@ Kilmarnock	W 2-1	1417	1648	10.7%	21.8%	67.5%	+16.0	26
2022-02-09	Hamilton Academical	D 2-2	1668	1486	62.9%	23.9%	13.1%	-2.3	45
2022-02-09	@ Arbroath	D 2-2	1486	1668	13.1%	23.9%	62.9%	+2.3	27
2022-02-09	Partick Thistle	D 3-3	1591	1604	40.2%	29.2%	30.6%	-0.3	39
2022-02-09	@ Inverness CT	D 3-3	1604	1591	30.6%	29.2%	40.2%	+0.3	37
2022-02-12	Dunfermline Athletic	W 2-1	1632	1442	63.7%	23.6%	12.7%	+3.9	43
2022-02-12	@ Kilmarnock	L 1-2	1442	1632	12.7%	23.6%	63.7%	-3.9	23
2022-02-12	Queen Of The South	W 2-1	1504	1405	54.3%	26.9%	18.8%	+5.8	27
2022-02-12	@ Greenock Morton	L 1-2	1405	1504	18.8%	26.9%	54.3%	-5.8	19
2022-02-19	Arbroath	D 0-0	1399	1665	13.7%	24.3%	61.9%	+3.3	20
2022-02-19	@ Queen Of The South	D 0-0	1665	1399	61.9%	24.3%	13.7%	-3.3	46
2022-02-19	Ayr United	L 1-2	1591	1433	60.5%	24.9%	14.6%	-14.7	39
2022-02-19	@ Inverness CT	W 2-1	1433	1591	14.6%	24.9%	60.5%	+14.7	29
2022-02-19	Greenock Morton	W 1-0	1488	1510	39.1%	29.2%	31.7%	+9.4	30
2022-02-19	@ Hamilton Academical	L 0-1	1510	1488	31.7%	29.2%	39.1%	-9.4	27
2022-02-19	Raith Rovers	W 3-0	1636	1560	51.6%	27.6%	20.8%	+18.4	46
2022-02-19	@ Kilmarnock	L 0-3	1560	1636	20.8%	27.6%	51.6%	-18.4	38
2022-02-22	Greenock Morton	L 0-1	1604	1500	54.9%	26.8%	18.4%	-14.4	37
2022-02-22	@ Partick Thistle	W 1-0	1500	1604	18.4%	26.8%	54.9%	+14.4	30
2022-02-25	Inverness CT	D 1-1	1498	1576	31.1%	29.2%	39.7%	+0.5	31
2022-02-25	@ Hamilton Academical	D 1-1	1576	1498	39.7%	29.2%	31.1%	-0.5	40
2022-02-26	Arbroath	D 0-0	1514	1662	23.0%	28.2%	48.8%	+1.7	31
2022-02-26	@ Greenock Morton	D 0-0	1662	1514	48.8%	28.2%	23.0%	-1.6	47
2022-02-26	Kilmarnock	D 0-0	1439	1654	17.1%	26.2%	56.7%	+2.6	24
2022-02-26	@ Dunfermline Athletic	D 0-0	1654	1439	56.7%	26.2%	17.1%	-2.6	47
2022-02-26	Partick Thistle	D 0-0	1541	1590	35.2%	29.3%	35.4%	+0.0	39
2022-02-26	@ Raith Rovers	D 0-0	1590	1541	35.4%	29.3%	35.2%	-0.0	38
2022-02-26	Queen Of The South	L 0-1	1448	1402	48.0%	28.3%	23.7%	-12.9	29
2022-02-26	@ Ayr United	W 1-0	1402	1448	23.7%	28.3%	48.0%	+12.9	23
2022-03-01	Partick Thistle	D 1-1	1660	1590	51.0%	27.7%	21.2%	-1.7	48
2022-03-01	@ Arbroath	D 1-1	1590	1660	21.2%	27.7%	51.0%	+1.7	39
2022-03-04	Inverness CT	W 1-0	1591	1575	44.1%	28.8%	27.0%	+8.3	42
2022-03-04	@ Partick Thistle	L 0-1	1575	1591	27.0%	28.8%	44.1%	-8.4	40
2022-03-05	Ayr United	L 0-4	1541	1435	55.1%	26.7%	18.2%	-51.7	39
2022-03-05	@ Raith Rovers	W 4-0	1435	1541	18.2%	26.7%	55.1%	+51.6	32
2022-03-05	Dunfermline Athletic	W 1-0	1659	1441	66.3%	22.4%	11.3%	+3.6	51
2022-03-05	@ Arbroath	L 0-1	1441	1659	11.3%	22.4%	66.3%	-3.6	24
2022-03-05	Greenock Morton	W 3-0	1415	1516	28.2%	29.0%	42.8%	+32.2	26
2022-03-05	@ Queen Of The South	L 0-3	1516	1415	42.8%	29.0%	28.2%	-32.2	31
2022-03-05	Hamilton Academical	W 2-0	1652	1498	60.1%	25.1%	14.8%	+9.2	50
2022-03-05	@ Kilmarnock	L 0-2	1498	1652	14.8%	25.1%	60.1%	-9.2	31
2022-03-08	Queen Of The South	W 1-0	1600	1447	60.0%	25.1%	14.9%	+4.9	45
2022-03-08	@ Partick Thistle	L 0-1	1447	1600	14.9%	25.1%	60.0%	-4.9	26
2022-03-11	Kilmarnock	L 1-3	1487	1661	20.5%	27.5%	52.0%	-10.8	32
2022-03-11	@ Ayr United	W 3-1	1661	1487	52.0%	27.5%	20.5%	+10.8	53
2022-03-12	Arbroath	W 3-0	1567	1662	28.9%	29.0%	42.0%	+31.7	43
2022-03-12	@ Inverness CT	L 0-3	1662	1567	42.0%	29.0%	28.9%	-31.7	51
2022-03-12	Dunfermline Athletic	D 2-2	1489	1438	48.7%	28.2%	23.1%	-1.1	32
2022-03-12	@ Hamilton Academical	D 2-2	1438	1489	23.1%	28.2%	48.7%	+1.1	25
2022-03-12	Partick Thistle	W 2-1	1484	1605	25.9%	28.7%	45.4%	+11.6	34
2022-03-12	@ Greenock Morton	L 1-2	1605	1484	45.4%	28.7%	25.9%	-11.6	45
2022-03-12	Raith Rovers	L 0-1	1443	1490	35.4%	29.3%	35.3%	-10.2	26
2022-03-12	@ Queen Of The South	W 1-0	1490	1443	35.3%	29.3%	35.4%	+10.2	42
2022-03-18	Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1439	1496	34.0%	29.3%	36.7%	+0.1	26
2022-03-18	@ Dunfermline Athletic	D 1-1	1496	1439	36.7%	29.3%	34.0%	-0.1	35
2022-03-19	Ayr United	W 1-0	1631	1476	60.3%	25.0%	14.7%	+4.9	54
2022-03-19	@ Arbroath	L 0-1	1476	1631	14.7%	25.0%	60.3%	-4.9	32
2022-03-19	Hamilton Academical	L 0-4	1593	1488	55.0%	26.7%	18.2%	-51.5	45
2022-03-19	@ Partick Thistle	W 4-0	1488	1593	18.2%	26.7%	55.0%	+51.5	35
2022-03-19	Inverness CT	L 2-3	1500	1599	28.5%	29.0%	42.5%	-7.8	42
2022-03-19	@ Raith Rovers	W 3-2	1599	1500	42.5%	29.0%	28.5%	+7.8	46
2022-03-19	Queen Of The South	W 2-1	1672	1432	68.2%	21.4%	10.3%	+3.1	56
2022-03-19	@ Kilmarnock	L 1-2	1432	1672	10.3%	21.4%	68.2%	-3.1	26
2022-03-22	Partick Thistle	W 4-1	1439	1542	28.0%	29.0%	43.0%	+27.3	29
2022-03-22	@ Dunfermline Athletic	L 1-4	1542	1439	43.0%	29.0%	28.0%	-27.3	45
2022-03-26	Ayr United	D 1-1	1495	1471	45.2%	28.7%	26.0%	-1.1	36
2022-03-26	@ Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1471	1495	26.0%	28.7%	45.2%	+1.1	33
2022-03-26	Dunfermline Athletic	W 2-0	1607	1466	58.8%	25.5%	15.7%	+9.7	49
2022-03-26	@ Inverness CT	L 0-2	1466	1607	15.7%	25.5%	58.8%	-9.7	29
2022-03-26	Partick Thistle	W 2-1	1675	1514	60.9%	24.8%	14.4%	+4.5	59
2022-03-26	@ Kilmarnock	L 1-2	1514	1675	14.4%	24.8%	60.9%	-4.5	45
2022-03-26	Queen Of The South	W 1-0	1540	1429	55.6%	26.6%	17.8%	+5.9	38
2022-03-26	@ Hamilton Academical	L 0-1	1429	1540	17.8%	26.6%	55.6%	-5.9	26
2022-03-26	Raith Rovers	D 3-3	1635	1492	59.1%	25.4%	15.5%	-1.6	55
2022-03-26	@ Arbroath	D 3-3	1492	1635	15.5%	25.4%	59.1%	+1.6	43
2022-04-01	Hamilton Academical	D 1-1	1472	1545	31.8%	29.2%	39.0%	+0.4	34
2022-04-01	@ Ayr United	D 1-1	1545	1472	39.0%	29.2%	31.8%	-0.4	39
2022-04-01	Kilmarnock	D 1-1	1494	1679	19.5%	27.2%	53.3%	+2.0	37
2022-04-01	@ Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1679	1494	53.3%	27.2%	19.5%	-2.0	60
2022-04-02	Arbroath	D 0-0	1510	1634	25.5%	28.6%	45.8%	+1.3	46
2022-04-02	@ Partick Thistle	D 0-0	1634	1510	45.8%	28.6%	25.5%	-1.3	56
2022-04-06	Raith Rovers	W 2-0	1456	1494	36.8%	29.3%	33.9%	+18.7	32
2022-04-06	@ Dunfermline Athletic	L 0-2	1494	1456	33.9%	29.3%	36.8%	-18.7	43
2022-04-08	Partick Thistle	L 0-1	1423	1511	29.9%	29.1%	41.0%	-9.0	26
2022-04-08	@ Queen Of The South	W 1-0	1511	1423	41.0%	29.1%	29.9%	+9.0	49
2022-04-09	Arbroath	L 0-1	1545	1633	29.9%	29.1%	41.0%	-9.0	39
2022-04-09	@ Hamilton Academical	W 1-0	1633	1545	41.0%	29.1%	29.9%	+9.0	59
2022-04-09	Dunfermline Athletic	W 2-0	1677	1475	64.9%	23.1%	12.0%	+7.4	63
2022-04-09	@ Kilmarnock	L 0-2	1475	1677	12.0%	23.1%	64.9%	-7.4	32
2022-04-09	Greenock Morton	L 0-1	1475	1496	39.1%	29.2%	31.7%	-11.0	43
2022-04-09	@ Raith Rovers	W 1-0	1496	1475	31.7%	29.2%	39.1%	+11.0	40
2022-04-09	Inverness CT	D 2-2	1473	1616	23.4%	28.2%	48.4%	+1.1	35
2022-04-09	@ Ayr United	D 2-2	1616	1473	48.4%	28.2%	23.4%	-1.1	50
2022-04-15	Kilmarnock	W 2-1	1615	1685	32.3%	29.3%	38.4%	+10.2	53
2022-04-15	@ Inverness CT	L 1-2	1685	1615	38.4%	29.3%	32.3%	-10.2	63
2022-04-16	Ayr United	W 2-1	1468	1474	41.2%	29.1%	29.7%	+8.5	35
2022-04-16	@ Dunfermline Athletic	L 1-2	1474	1468	29.7%	29.1%	41.2%	-8.5	35
2022-04-16	Hamilton Academical	L 0-1	1507	1536	38.0%	29.3%	32.7%	-10.8	40
2022-04-16	@ Greenock Morton	W 1-0	1536	1507	32.7%	29.3%	38.0%	+10.8	42
2022-04-16	Queen Of The South	W 5-1	1642	1414	67.2%	22.0%	10.8%	+10.4	62
2022-04-16	@ Arbroath	L 1-5	1414	1642	10.8%	22.0%	67.2%	-10.4	26
2022-04-16	Raith Rovers	L 0-1	1520	1464	49.2%	28.1%	22.7%	-13.2	49
2022-04-16	@ Partick Thistle	W 1-0	1464	1520	22.7%	28.1%	49.2%	+13.2	46
2022-04-19	Inverness CT	W 2-1	1404	1626	16.6%	26.0%	57.3%	+14.1	29
2022-04-19	@ Queen Of The South	L 1-2	1626	1404	57.3%	26.0%	16.6%	-14.1	53
2022-04-22	Arbroath	W 2-1	1674	1652	45.0%	28.7%	26.3%	+7.7	66
2022-04-22	@ Kilmarnock	L 1-2	1652	1674	26.3%	28.7%	45.0%	-7.7	62
2022-04-23	Ayr United	D 1-1	1418	1465	35.4%	29.3%	35.3%	+0.0	30
2022-04-23	@ Queen Of The South	D 1-1	1465	1418	35.3%	29.3%	35.4%	+0.0	36
2022-04-23	Dunfermline Athletic	W 1-0	1507	1476	46.1%	28.6%	25.3%	+7.9	52
2022-04-23	@ Partick Thistle	L 0-1	1476	1507	25.3%	28.6%	46.1%	-7.9	35
2022-04-23	Inverness CT	L 0-1	1497	1611	26.6%	28.8%	44.6%	-8.2	40
2022-04-23	@ Greenock Morton	W 1-0	1611	1497	44.6%	28.8%	26.6%	+8.2	56
2022-04-23	Raith Rovers	L 0-2	1547	1477	50.9%	27.8%	21.4%	-25.5	42
2022-04-23	@ Hamilton Academical	W 2-0	1477	1547	21.4%	27.8%	50.9%	+25.4	49
2022-04-29	Greenock Morton	W 3-0	1644	1488	60.4%	24.9%	14.6%	+13.2	65
2022-04-29	@ Arbroath	L 0-3	1488	1644	14.6%	24.9%	60.4%	-13.2	40
2022-04-29	Hamilton Academical	W 4-0	1620	1521	54.2%	27.0%	18.8%	+22.0	59
2022-04-29	@ Inverness CT	L 0-4	1521	1620	18.8%	27.0%	54.2%	-22.0	42
2022-04-29	Kilmarnock	D 1-1	1503	1682	20.0%	27.4%	52.6%	+1.9	50
2022-04-29	@ Raith Rovers	D 1-1	1682	1503	52.6%	27.4%	20.0%	-1.9	67
2022-04-29	Partick Thistle	W 3-1	1465	1515	35.0%	29.3%	35.7%	+16.8	39
2022-04-29	@ Ayr United	L 1-3	1515	1465	35.7%	29.3%	35.0%	-16.8	52
2022-04-29	Queen Of The South	L 1-2	1468	1418	48.5%	28.2%	23.2%	-12.2	35
2022-04-29	@ Dunfermline Athletic	W 2-1	1418	1468	23.2%	28.2%	48.5%	+12.2	33

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2022-02-09	10.69%	Ayr United	1417	2	@ Kilmarnock	1648	1
2	2021-12-18	13.39%	Hamilton Academical	1456	2	@ Inverness CT	1633	1
3	2021-11-13	13.80%	Dunfermline Athletic	1434	2	@ Inverness CT	1604	1
4	2022-02-19	14.57%	Ayr United	1433	2	@ Inverness CT	1591	1
5	2022-01-08	15.36%	@ Ayr United	1425	1	Arbroath	1665	0
6	2021-10-02	15.64%	Raith Rovers	1532	3	@ Kilmarnock	1672	1
7	2022-04-19	16.64%	@ Queen Of The South	1404	2	Inverness CT	1626	1
8	2022-02-05	17.37%	Greenock Morton	1489	1	@ Inverness CT	1606	0
9	2021-12-26	18.01%	@ Ayr United	1398	2	Raith Rovers	1601	0
10	2021-11-06	18.09%	Partick Thistle	1564	1	@ Kilmarnock	1671	0
11	2022-03-05	18.16%	Ayr United	1435	4	@ Raith Rovers	1541	0
12	2022-03-19	18.25%	Hamilton Academical	1488	4	@ Partick Thistle	1593	0
13	2022-02-22	18.35%	Greenock Morton	1500	1	@ Partick Thistle	1604	0
14	2021-08-07	20.44%	Greenock Morton	1492	1	@ Hamilton Academical	1571	0
15	2021-08-28	20.71%	Inverness CT	1592	1	@ Kilmarnock	1668	0
16	2022-04-23	21.37%	Raith Rovers	1477	2	@ Hamilton Academical	1547	0
17	2021-08-07	22.30%	Partick Thistle	1481	3	@ Dunfermline Athletic	1541	0
18	2022-04-16	22.67%	Raith Rovers	1464	1	@ Partick Thistle	1520	0
19	2021-11-20	22.73%	Arbroath	1613	1	@ Kilmarnock	1669	0
20	2021-09-11	22.89%	Queen Of The South	1475	1	@ Raith Rovers	1529	0
21	2022-04-29	23.25%	Queen Of The South	1418	2	@ Dunfermline Athletic	1468	1
22	2022-02-26	23.72%	Queen Of The South	1402	1	@ Ayr United	1448	0
23	2021-09-18	24.95%	Ayr United	1486	2	@ Hamilton Academical	1520	0
24	2021-08-21	25.15%	Queen Of The South	1474	3	@ Greenock Morton	1506	2
25	2021-10-02	25.73%	@ Hamilton Academical	1497	2	Inverness CT	1619	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2022-03-05	51.65	Ayr United	4	1435	18.16%	@ Raith Rovers	0	1541	55.14%	26.70%
2	2022-03-19	51.55	Hamilton Academical	4	1488	18.25%	@ Partick Thistle	0	1593	55.01%	26.74%
3	2022-01-08	41.54	@ Greenock Morton	5	1427	39.10%	Dunfermline Athletic	0	1448	31.67%	29.23%
4	2021-10-15	40.30	Partick Thistle	6	1527	31.36%	@ Hamilton Academical	1	1509	39.42%	29.22%
5	2021-08-07	36.27	Partick Thistle	3	1481	22.30%	@ Dunfermline Athletic	0	1541	49.70%	28.01%
6	2021-10-02	32.96	@ Partick Thistle	4	1494	40.10%	Ayr United	0	1508	30.72%	29.18%
7	2022-03-05	32.18	@ Queen Of The South	3	1415	28.23%	Greenock Morton	0	1516	42.79%	28.98%
8	2022-01-02	31.81	Hamilton Academical	3	1465	28.81%	@ Queen Of The South	0	1466	42.16%	29.04%
9	2022-03-12	31.74	@ Inverness CT	3	1567	28.92%	Arbroath	0	1662	42.03%	29.05%
10	2021-11-13	30.56	Partick Thistle	4	1578	43.27%	@ Ayr United	0	1474	27.79%	28.94%
11	2021-09-11	29.97	@ Arbroath	4	1566	44.04%	Hamilton Academical	0	1550	27.11%	28.86%
12	2021-08-28	29.18	Arbroath	3	1536	33.15%	@ Dunfermline Athletic	0	1504	37.57%	29.28%
13	2021-12-26	27.32	@ Ayr United	2	1398	18.01%	Raith Rovers	0	1601	55.35%	26.64%
14	2022-03-22	27.26	@ Dunfermline Athletic	4	1439	28.00%	Partick Thistle	1	1542	43.04%	28.96%
15	2021-12-11	26.22	Inverness CT	6	1607	49.55%	@ Greenock Morton	1	1453	22.42%	28.03%
16	2022-04-23	25.46	Raith Rovers	2	1477	21.37%	@ Hamilton Academical	0	1547	50.87%	27.77%
17	2021-10-02	24.88	Raith Rovers	3	1532	15.64%	@ Kilmarnock	1	1672	58.84%	25.52%
18	2021-11-13	24.10	Raith Rovers	3	1570	42.06%	@ Hamilton Academical	0	1475	28.90%	29.04%
19	2021-11-20	23.69	@ Dunfermline Athletic	3	1449	42.76%	Ayr United	0	1443	28.26%	28.98%
20	2021-09-18	23.67	Ayr United	2	1486	24.95%	@ Hamilton Academical	0	1520	46.51%	28.54%
21	2021-08-28	23.46	@ Partick Thistle	3	1503	43.15%	Greenock Morton	0	1495	27.91%	28.95%
22	2021-12-18	22.33	@ Queen Of The South	3	1444	45.08%	Ayr United	0	1420	26.18%	28.73%
23	2022-01-29	22.12	Dunfermline Athletic	2	1420	28.29%	@ Queen Of The South	0	1425	42.72%	28.99%
24	2022-04-29	21.99	@ Inverness CT	4	1620	54.25%	Hamilton Academical	0	1521	18.80%	26.95%
25	2021-12-11	21.10	Arbroath	2	1625	30.68%	@ Partick Thistle	0	1612	40.14%	29.18%