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2020-21 Championship Season

135 games

Final

Promoted

—

No promotions.

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Raith Rovers

12.54 points above expected

43 points · 30.46 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Ayr United

9.07 points below expected

29 points · 38.07 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Heart of Midlothian 27 17 6 4 57 63 24 +39 52.66 +4.34
2 Dundee 27 12 9 6 45 49 40 +9 39.97 +5.03
3 Raith Rovers 27 12 7 8 43 45 36 +9 30.46 +12.54
4 Dunfermline Athletic 27 10 9 8 39 38 34 +4 41.67 -2.67
5 Inverness CT 27 8 12 7 36 36 31 +5 43.07 -7.07
6 Queen Of The South 27 9 5 13 32 38 51 -13 29.91 +2.09
7 Arbroath 27 7 9 11 30 28 34 -6 35.64 -5.64
8 Ayr United 27 6 11 10 29 31 37 -6 38.07 -9.07
9 Greenock Morton 27 6 11 10 29 22 33 -11 33.25 -4.25
10 Alloa Athletic 27 5 7 15 22 30 60 -30 26.07 -4.07

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Heart of Midlothian 1724 57 52.66 +4.34 76.6% 29 42 48 53 57 63 76
Dundee 1603 45 39.97 +5.03 79.9% 19 29 35 40 44 51 63
Inverness CT 1583 36 43.07 -7.07 16.8% 20 32 38 43 48 54 69
Dunfermline Athletic 1544 39 41.67 -2.67 37.7% 14 31 37 42 46 53 68
Arbroath 1532 30 35.64 -5.64 22.2% 11 25 31 36 40 47 62
Raith Rovers 1506 43 30.46 +12.54 97.9% 8 20 26 30 35 41 59
Ayr United 1498 29 38.07 -9.07 9.8% 8 27 34 38 43 49 61
Greenock Morton 1472 29 33.25 -4.25 28.9% 10 23 29 33 38 44 60
Queen Of The South 1467 32 29.91 +2.09 66.3% 8 20 26 30 34 40 63
Alloa Athletic 1400 22 26.07 -4.07 28.8% 7 16 22 26 30 37 55

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AA ARB AU DUN DA GM HOM IC QOTS RR
Alloa Athletic —
1-1-1
3.04
0-1-2
2.77
0-1-2
2.96
1-0-2
2.68
0-2-1
3.26
0-0-3
1.86
1-2-0
2.42
2-0-1
3.60
0-0-3
3.38
Arbroath
1-1-1
5.19
 —
3-0-0
3.76
0-1-2
3.58
1-0-2
3.38
1-2-0
4.43
0-1-2
2.45
0-1-2
3.30
0-2-1
4.74
1-1-1
4.87
Ayr United
2-1-0
5.48
0-0-3
4.44
 —
2-0-1
3.90
0-3-0
3.72
1-1-1
4.49
0-0-3
2.61
0-2-1
3.56
1-1-1
4.87
0-3-0
5.03
Dundee
2-1-0
5.28
2-1-0
4.63
1-0-2
4.31
 —
1-2-0
4.13
1-2-0
4.84
1-0-2
2.80
1-2-0
3.61
2-0-1
5.29
1-1-1
5.22
Dunfermline Athletic
2-0-1
5.59
2-0-1
4.84
0-3-0
4.49
0-2-1
4.07
 —
1-1-1
5.20
1-1-1
2.95
1-1-1
4.05
2-0-1
5.21
1-1-1
5.25
Greenock Morton
1-2-0
4.96
0-2-1
3.78
1-1-1
3.72
0-2-1
3.39
1-1-1
3.04
 —
0-2-1
2.16
1-1-1
3.00
2-0-1
4.54
0-0-3
4.61
Heart of Midlothian
3-0-0
6.52
2-1-0
5.84
3-0-0
5.65
2-0-1
5.45
1-1-1
5.30
1-2-0
6.17
 —
2-1-0
5.20
1-1-1
6.40
2-0-1
6.16
Inverness CT
0-2-1
5.87
2-1-0
4.92
1-2-0
4.66
0-2-1
4.60
1-1-1
4.16
1-1-1
5.23
0-1-2
3.04
 —
1-1-1
5.41
2-1-0
5.17
Queen Of The South
1-0-2
4.62
1-2-0
3.47
1-1-1
3.35
1-0-2
2.95
1-0-2
3.03
1-0-2
3.67
1-1-1
1.96
1-1-1
2.84
 —
1-0-2
4.07
Raith Rovers
3-0-0
4.85
1-1-1
3.36
0-3-0
3.20
1-1-1
3.01
1-1-1
2.99
3-0-0
3.61
1-0-2
2.16
0-1-2
3.06
2-0-1
4.14
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.86 +7.9
Allowed 0.40 -6.2
Differential 0.93 +5.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.63%8.15%4.81%2.22%1.11%0.74%26.67%
18.15%14.07%5.56%4.07%1.48%0.74%34.07%
24.81%5.56%6.67%2.96%0.37%1.11%21.48%
32.22%4.07%2.96%1.48%0.37%0.37%11.48%
41.11%1.48%0.37%0.37%——3.33%
5+0.74%0.74%1.11%0.37%——2.96%
Total26.67%34.07%21.48%11.48%3.33%2.96%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.41 +0.00
SD 1.29 1.29 1.78
CV 0.91 0.91 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 135

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.70%7.41%7.41%—3.70%22.22%
17.41%14.81%11.11%11.11%7.41%—51.85%
2—7.41%7.41%——3.70%18.52%
3——3.70%3.70%——7.41%
4———————
5+———————
Total7.41%25.93%29.63%22.22%7.41%7.41%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 2.22 -1.11
SD 0.85 1.42 1.72
CV 0.76 0.64 —
Max 3 6 +1
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%18.52%3.70%3.70%——37.04%
111.11%14.81%—7.41%——33.33%
23.70%7.41%7.41%—3.70%—22.22%
3————3.70%—3.70%
43.70%—————3.70%
5+———————
Total29.63%40.74%11.11%11.11%7.41%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.04 1.26 -0.22
SD 1.06 1.23 1.45
CV 1.02 0.97 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.52%7.41%7.41%3.70%3.70%—40.74%
1—14.81%3.70%———18.52%
211.11%3.70%7.41%7.41%——29.63%
3—3.70%———3.70%7.41%
4—3.70%————3.70%
5+———————
Total29.63%33.33%18.52%11.11%3.70%3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.15 1.37 -0.22
SD 1.17 1.33 1.60
CV 1.02 0.97 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%—3.70%———7.41%
17.41%14.81%3.70%7.41%——33.33%
27.41%7.41%7.41%3.70%—3.70%29.63%
37.41%11.11%3.70%7.41%——29.63%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.93%33.33%18.52%18.52%—3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.81 1.48 +0.33
SD 0.96 1.40 1.64
CV 0.53 0.94 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.52%14.81%3.70%———37.04%
17.41%7.41%3.70%——3.70%22.22%
2—7.41%3.70%3.70%——14.81%
3—7.41%3.70%3.70%——14.81%
4—7.41%—3.70%——11.11%
5+———————
Total25.93%44.44%14.81%11.11%—3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.26 +0.15
SD 1.42 1.20 1.49
CV 1.01 0.95 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.81%18.52%7.41%——3.70%44.44%
17.41%18.52%3.70%—3.70%—33.33%
23.70%7.41%7.41%———18.52%
3——3.70%———3.70%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.93%44.44%22.22%—3.70%3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.81 1.22 -0.41
SD 0.88 1.19 1.42
CV 1.08 0.97 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—————11.11%
111.11%11.11%3.70%3.70%——29.63%
27.41%7.41%—7.41%——22.22%
37.41%7.41%————14.81%
47.41%—————7.41%
5+3.70%3.70%3.70%3.70%——14.81%
Total48.15%29.63%7.41%14.81%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.33 0.89 +1.44
SD 1.82 1.09 1.99
CV 0.78 1.22 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%7.41%—3.70%——14.81%
111.11%25.93%11.11%3.70%——51.85%
27.41%—14.81%———22.22%
33.70%3.70%————7.41%
4—3.70%————3.70%
5+———————
Total25.93%40.74%25.93%7.41%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.15 +0.19
SD 0.96 0.91 1.39
CV 0.72 0.79 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%3.70%7.41%3.70%——18.52%
17.41%11.11%11.11%7.41%—3.70%40.74%
27.41%3.70%3.70%7.41%—3.70%25.93%
3——11.11%———11.11%
4——3.70%———3.70%
5+———————
Total18.52%18.52%37.04%18.52%—7.41%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.89 -0.48
SD 1.05 1.45 1.72
CV 0.74 0.77 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%7.41%7.41%—7.41%—33.33%
111.11%7.41%3.70%—3.70%—25.93%
2—3.70%7.41%———11.11%
33.70%7.41%3.70%———14.81%
4———————
5+3.70%3.70%7.41%———14.81%
Total29.63%29.63%29.63%—11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.33 +0.33
SD 1.75 1.24 2.24
CV 1.05 0.93 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Raith Rovers 43 30.46 +12.54
2 Dundee 45 39.97 +5.03
3 Heart of Midlothian 57 52.66 +4.34
4 Queen Of The South 32 29.91 +2.09
5 Dunfermline Athletic 39 41.67 -2.67

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ayr United 29 38.07 -9.07
2 Inverness CT 36 43.07 -7.07
3 Arbroath 30 35.64 -5.64
4 Greenock Morton 29 33.25 -4.25
5 Alloa Athletic 22 26.07 -4.07

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Queen Of The South 4 Feb 17 – Mar 6 1 in 274
2 Inverness CT 4 Mar 16 – Apr 6 1 in 25
3 Raith Rovers 2 Oct 17 – Oct 24 1 in 20
4 Alloa Athletic 2 Dec 12 – Dec 19 1 in 19
5 Dundee 3 Dec 26 – Jan 2 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dunfermline Athletic 3 Mar 20 – Mar 30 1 in 28
2 Arbroath 3 Oct 17 – Oct 31 1 in 24
3 Dundee 2 Jan 30 – Feb 20 1 in 16
4 Queen Of The South 4 Dec 4 – Dec 26 1 in 14
5 Ayr United 3 Feb 5 – Feb 27 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Arbroath 8 Jan 16 – Feb 27 1 in 51
2 Queen Of The South 5 Feb 12 – Mar 6 1 in 46
3 Raith Rovers 6 Mar 20 – Apr 17 1 in 17
4 Dundee 8 Mar 19 – Apr 30 1 in 17
5 Greenock Morton 5 Dec 12 – Jan 15 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Greenock Morton 10 Dec 29 – Mar 6 1 in 62
2 Inverness CT 6 Dec 12 – Feb 17 1 in 53
3 Arbroath 7 Oct 17 – Dec 12 1 in 40
4 Ayr United 7 Mar 20 – Apr 30 1 in 35
5 Heart of Midlothian 3 Feb 12 – Feb 26 1 in 15

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Heart of Midlothian70.48%17.42%6.53%3.06%1.45%0.63%0.29%0.11%0.03%—
Dundee5.24%15.42%18.55%17.26%14.90%11.15%7.75%5.56%3.02%1.15%
Raith Rovers0.26%1.31%3.21%5.58%8.53%11.70%15.25%18.33%19.76%16.07%
Dunfermline Athletic8.14%20.30%19.69%16.99%12.81%9.11%6.38%3.84%2.03%0.71%
Inverness CT11.19%25.61%20.30%15.28%11.02%7.34%4.55%2.76%1.51%0.44%
Queen Of The South0.22%0.89%2.22%4.13%6.98%10.03%14.05%19.17%22.86%19.45%
Arbroath1.22%5.84%9.61%12.57%13.98%15.78%15.14%12.10%8.74%5.02%
Ayr United2.75%9.84%13.49%15.49%16.01%15.02%11.81%7.95%5.13%2.51%
Greenock Morton0.46%3.11%5.73%8.19%11.79%14.27%16.62%16.23%14.49%9.11%
Alloa Athletic0.04%0.26%0.67%1.45%2.53%4.97%8.16%13.95%22.43%45.54%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+14.81%
Slight Edge
41.48%31.85%26.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge
184 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
051.85500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.28 goals
Neutral
-2+0.28+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.9
One-Team Race
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
70%
Heart of Midlothian, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.44/gm
Comfortable
00.260.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.25 * Some Luck: 5.25 to 7.87 * Lucky: 7.87 to 10.49 * Wild Swing: 10.49 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.24 * Close: 1.24 to 1.86 * Off: 1.86 to 2.48 * Way Off: 2.48 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.36 points
Some Luck
06.5616
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.00
Off
01.554
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
97.91%
Raith Rovers
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
9.78%
Ayr United
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.30
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
63%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
87%
Strong Edge
50%84%100%
Close Games
Expected
66%
Very Frequent
0%60%100%
Blowouts
Expected
15%
Frequent
0%16%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.66
Coin-Flip
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.29
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.96
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.36
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
As Expected
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Shaky Favorites
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.66
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.68
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.118
Well Within Noise
00.1580.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Qualified for promotion playoff Same level Direct relegation
Heart of Midlothian 70.48% 27.01% 2.51% —
Inverness CT 11.19% 61.19% 27.18% 0.44%
Dunfermline Athletic 8.14% 56.98% 34.17% 0.71%
Dundee 5.24% 51.23% 42.38% 1.15%
Ayr United 2.75% 38.82% 55.92% 2.51%
Arbroath 1.22% 28.02% 65.74% 5.02%
Greenock Morton 0.46% 17.03% 73.40% 9.11%
Raith Rovers 0.26% 10.10% 73.57% 16.07%
Queen Of The South 0.22% 7.24% 73.09% 19.45%
Alloa Athletic 0.04% 2.38% 52.04% 45.54%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2020-10-16 Dundee W 6-2 1628 1554 48.1% 25.7% 26.2% +14.5 3
2020-10-16 @ Heart of Midlothian L 2-6 1554 1628 26.2% 25.7% 48.1% -14.5 0
2020-10-17 Alloa Athletic W 1-0 1533 1491 43.7% 26.2% 30.1% +6.4 3
2020-10-17 @ Greenock Morton L 0-1 1491 1533 30.1% 26.2% 43.7% -6.4 0
2020-10-17 Arbroath W 3-0 1391 1562 18.6% 23.6% 57.8% +29.5 3
2020-10-17 @ Raith Rovers L 0-3 1562 1391 57.8% 23.6% 18.6% -29.5 0
2020-10-17 Inverness CT W 3-1 1555 1580 34.2% 26.5% 39.3% +12.8 3
2020-10-17 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-3 1580 1555 39.3% 26.5% 34.2% -12.8 0
2020-10-17 Queen Of The South W 2-1 1545 1490 45.4% 26.1% 28.6% +5.8 3
2020-10-17 @ Ayr United L 1-2 1490 1545 28.6% 26.1% 45.4% -5.8 0
2020-10-23 Heart of Midlothian L 0-1 1533 1643 24.0% 25.3% 50.7% -5.3 0
2020-10-23 @ Arbroath W 1-0 1643 1533 50.7% 25.3% 24.0% +5.3 6
2020-10-24 Ayr United D 1-1 1568 1551 40.3% 26.4% 33.3% -0.3 1
2020-10-24 @ Inverness CT D 1-1 1551 1568 33.3% 26.4% 40.3% +0.3 4
2020-10-24 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-4 1484 1568 26.9% 25.8% 47.2% -13.6 0
2020-10-24 @ Alloa Athletic W 4-1 1568 1484 47.2% 25.8% 26.9% +13.6 6
2020-10-24 Greenock Morton W 1-0 1539 1539 37.9% 26.5% 35.6% +7.3 3
2020-10-24 @ Dundee L 0-1 1539 1539 35.6% 26.5% 37.9% -7.3 3
2020-10-24 Raith Rovers L 2-5 1485 1421 46.7% 25.9% 27.4% -18.0 0
2020-10-24 @ Queen Of The South W 5-2 1421 1485 27.4% 25.9% 46.7% +18.0 6
2020-10-31 Arbroath W 3-1 1567 1527 43.5% 26.2% 30.3% +10.6 4
2020-10-31 @ Inverness CT L 1-3 1527 1567 30.3% 26.2% 43.5% -10.5 0
2020-10-31 Ayr United W 3-2 1532 1551 35.1% 26.5% 38.4% +6.9 6
2020-10-31 @ Greenock Morton L 2-3 1551 1532 38.4% 26.5% 35.1% -6.9 4
2020-10-31 Queen Of The South W 3-2 1581 1467 53.1% 24.8% 22.1% +4.4 9
2020-10-31 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 2-3 1467 1581 22.1% 24.8% 53.1% -4.4 0
2020-10-31 Raith Rovers D 1-1 1546 1439 52.2% 25.0% 22.8% -1.2 4
2020-10-31 @ Dundee D 1-1 1439 1546 22.8% 25.0% 52.2% +1.2 7
2020-11-06 Dundee D 3-3 1471 1545 28.0% 26.0% 46.0% +0.5 1
2020-11-06 @ Alloa Athletic D 3-3 1545 1471 46.0% 26.0% 28.0% -0.5 5
2020-11-07 Dunfermline Athletic D 0-0 1544 1586 32.0% 26.4% 41.6% +0.4 5
2020-11-07 @ Ayr United D 0-0 1586 1544 41.6% 26.4% 32.0% -0.4 10
2020-11-07 Greenock Morton W 5-0 1440 1539 25.3% 25.6% 49.2% +41.4 10
2020-11-07 @ Raith Rovers L 0-5 1539 1440 49.2% 25.6% 25.3% -41.4 6
2020-11-07 Inverness CT W 2-1 1648 1578 47.5% 25.8% 26.7% +5.5 9
2020-11-07 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1578 1648 26.7% 25.8% 47.5% -5.5 4
2020-11-07 Queen Of The South D 1-1 1517 1462 45.4% 26.1% 28.5% -0.7 1
2020-11-07 @ Arbroath D 1-1 1462 1517 28.5% 26.1% 45.4% +0.7 1
2020-11-20 Heart of Midlothian W 2-1 1585 1654 28.7% 26.1% 45.2% +8.3 13
2020-11-20 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-2 1654 1585 45.2% 26.1% 28.7% -8.3 9
2020-11-21 Alloa Athletic W 2-0 1463 1471 36.6% 26.5% 36.9% +14.1 4
2020-11-21 @ Queen Of The South L 0-2 1471 1463 36.9% 26.5% 36.6% -14.1 1
2020-11-21 Dundee W 2-0 1544 1545 37.8% 26.5% 35.7% +13.8 8
2020-11-21 @ Ayr United L 0-2 1545 1544 35.7% 26.5% 37.8% -13.8 5
2020-11-21 Greenock Morton D 0-0 1516 1497 40.5% 26.4% 33.1% -0.3 2
2020-11-21 @ Arbroath D 0-0 1497 1516 33.1% 26.4% 40.5% +0.3 7
2020-11-21 Raith Rovers W 2-0 1572 1481 50.1% 25.4% 24.5% +10.2 7
2020-11-21 @ Inverness CT L 0-2 1481 1572 24.5% 25.4% 50.1% -10.2 10
2020-11-24 Alloa Athletic W 3-0 1645 1457 61.4% 22.4% 16.2% +10.0 12
2020-11-24 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-3 1457 1645 16.2% 22.4% 61.4% -10.0 1
2020-12-04 Inverness CT L 0-3 1477 1583 24.5% 25.4% 50.1% -14.9 4
2020-12-04 @ Queen Of The South W 3-0 1583 1477 50.1% 25.4% 24.5% +14.9 10
2020-12-05 Arbroath W 1-0 1531 1516 40.0% 26.5% 33.6% +7.0 8
2020-12-05 @ Dundee L 0-1 1516 1531 33.6% 26.5% 40.0% -7.0 2
2020-12-05 Ayr United L 0-2 1447 1558 23.9% 25.3% 50.8% -10.0 1
2020-12-05 @ Alloa Athletic W 2-0 1558 1447 50.8% 25.3% 23.9% +10.0 11
2020-12-05 Dunfermline Athletic D 2-2 1471 1594 22.8% 25.0% 52.2% +0.9 11
2020-12-05 @ Raith Rovers D 2-2 1594 1471 52.2% 25.0% 22.8% -0.9 14
2020-12-05 Heart of Midlothian L 0-2 1497 1655 19.6% 24.0% 56.4% -8.4 7
2020-12-05 @ Greenock Morton W 2-0 1655 1497 56.4% 24.0% 19.6% +8.4 15
2020-12-11 Raith Rovers D 0-0 1568 1472 50.8% 25.3% 23.9% -1.2 12
2020-12-11 @ Ayr United D 0-0 1472 1568 23.9% 25.3% 50.8% +1.2 12
2020-12-12 Alloa Athletic L 0-1 1509 1437 47.7% 25.8% 26.5% -9.2 2
2020-12-12 @ Arbroath W 1-0 1437 1509 26.5% 25.8% 47.7% +9.2 4
2020-12-12 Dundee D 2-2 1597 1538 46.1% 26.0% 27.9% -0.5 11
2020-12-12 @ Inverness CT D 2-2 1538 1597 27.9% 26.0% 46.1% +0.5 9
2020-12-12 Greenock Morton L 1-2 1593 1489 51.7% 25.1% 23.2% -9.2 14
2020-12-12 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-1 1489 1593 23.2% 25.1% 51.7% +9.2 10
2020-12-12 Queen Of The South W 6-1 1664 1462 62.8% 21.9% 15.3% +12.6 18
2020-12-12 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-6 1462 1664 15.3% 21.9% 62.8% -12.6 4
2020-12-19 Ayr United W 2-1 1500 1567 28.8% 26.1% 45.1% +8.2 5
2020-12-19 @ Arbroath L 1-2 1567 1500 45.1% 26.1% 28.8% -8.3 12
2020-12-19 Dunfermline Athletic D 3-3 1538 1584 31.6% 26.3% 42.0% +0.3 10
2020-12-19 @ Dundee D 3-3 1584 1538 42.0% 26.3% 31.6% -0.3 15
2020-12-19 Inverness CT W 2-1 1446 1597 20.2% 24.2% 55.5% +9.8 7
2020-12-19 @ Alloa Athletic L 1-2 1597 1446 55.5% 24.2% 20.2% -9.8 11
2020-12-19 Queen Of The South W 2-0 1498 1450 44.6% 26.1% 29.2% +11.8 13
2020-12-19 @ Greenock Morton L 0-2 1450 1498 29.2% 26.1% 44.6% -11.8 4
2020-12-26 Arbroath W 1-0 1583 1508 48.2% 25.7% 26.1% +5.7 18
2020-12-26 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-1 1508 1583 26.1% 25.7% 48.2% -5.7 5
2020-12-26 Ayr United W 5-3 1676 1559 53.4% 24.7% 21.8% +6.8 21
2020-12-26 @ Heart of Midlothian L 3-5 1559 1676 21.8% 24.7% 53.4% -6.8 12
2020-12-26 Dundee L 1-3 1438 1539 25.0% 25.5% 49.5% -9.0 4
2020-12-26 @ Queen Of The South W 3-1 1539 1438 49.5% 25.5% 25.0% +9.0 13
2020-12-26 Raith Rovers L 2-5 1456 1473 35.4% 26.5% 38.1% -14.5 7
2020-12-26 @ Alloa Athletic W 5-2 1473 1456 38.1% 26.5% 35.4% +14.5 15
2020-12-29 Alloa Athletic W 3-1 1548 1441 52.0% 25.0% 22.9% +8.3 16
2020-12-29 @ Dundee L 1-3 1441 1548 22.9% 25.0% 52.0% -8.4 7
2020-12-29 Arbroath W 3-1 1683 1502 60.6% 22.7% 16.7% +6.2 24
2020-12-29 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-3 1502 1683 16.7% 22.7% 60.6% -6.2 5
2020-12-29 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-1 1587 1589 37.6% 26.5% 35.9% -0.1 12
2020-12-29 @ Inverness CT D 1-1 1589 1587 35.9% 26.5% 37.6% +0.1 19
2020-12-29 Greenock Morton D 1-1 1552 1510 43.7% 26.2% 30.1% -0.5 13
2020-12-29 @ Ayr United D 1-1 1510 1552 30.1% 26.2% 43.7% +0.5 14
2020-12-29 Queen Of The South L 0-2 1488 1429 46.1% 26.0% 28.0% -16.8 15
2020-12-29 @ Raith Rovers W 2-0 1429 1488 28.0% 26.0% 46.1% +16.8 7
2021-01-02 Ayr United W 3-2 1445 1551 24.5% 25.4% 50.1% +8.5 10
2021-01-02 @ Queen Of The South L 2-3 1551 1445 50.1% 25.4% 24.5% -8.5 13
2021-01-02 Greenock Morton D 1-1 1433 1511 27.6% 25.9% 46.5% +0.8 8
2021-01-02 @ Alloa Athletic D 1-1 1511 1433 46.5% 25.9% 27.6% -0.8 15
2021-01-02 Heart of Midlothian W 3-1 1556 1689 21.8% 24.7% 53.5% +16.5 19
2021-01-02 @ Dundee L 1-3 1689 1556 53.5% 24.7% 21.8% -16.5 24
2021-01-15 Dunfermline Athletic D 0-0 1510 1589 27.4% 25.9% 46.7% +0.9 16
2021-01-15 @ Greenock Morton D 0-0 1589 1510 46.7% 25.9% 27.4% -0.9 20
2021-01-16 Arbroath D 2-2 1454 1496 32.0% 26.4% 41.6% +0.3 11
2021-01-16 @ Queen Of The South D 2-2 1496 1454 41.6% 26.4% 32.0% -0.3 6
2021-01-16 Heart of Midlothian L 1-3 1434 1673 13.9% 21.1% 65.0% -5.1 8
2021-01-16 @ Alloa Athletic W 3-1 1673 1434 65.0% 21.1% 13.9% +5.1 27
2021-01-22 Dundee D 1-1 1496 1573 27.7% 25.9% 46.4% +0.8 7
2021-01-22 @ Arbroath D 1-1 1573 1496 46.4% 25.9% 27.7% -0.8 20
2021-01-23 Ayr United D 0-0 1588 1543 44.2% 26.2% 29.6% -0.7 21
2021-01-23 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-0 1543 1588 29.6% 26.2% 44.2% +0.7 14
2021-01-23 Greenock Morton W 2-1 1454 1511 30.1% 26.2% 43.6% +8.0 14
2021-01-23 @ Queen Of The South L 1-2 1511 1454 43.6% 26.2% 30.1% -8.0 16
2021-01-23 Raith Rovers L 2-3 1678 1471 63.3% 21.7% 14.9% -10.4 27
2021-01-23 @ Heart of Midlothian W 3-2 1471 1678 14.9% 21.7% 63.3% +10.4 18
2021-01-26 Heart of Midlothian L 0-4 1482 1668 17.4% 23.1% 59.5% -14.1 18
2021-01-26 @ Raith Rovers W 4-0 1668 1482 59.5% 23.1% 17.4% +14.1 30
2021-01-27 Inverness CT D 2-2 1503 1587 26.9% 25.8% 47.3% +0.6 17
2021-01-27 @ Greenock Morton D 2-2 1587 1503 47.3% 25.8% 26.9% -0.6 13
2021-01-30 Alloa Athletic W 4-1 1543 1429 53.1% 24.8% 22.1% +11.4 17
2021-01-30 @ Ayr United L 1-4 1429 1543 22.1% 24.8% 53.1% -11.4 8
2021-01-30 Arbroath L 0-1 1503 1496 38.8% 26.5% 34.7% -7.8 17
2021-01-30 @ Greenock Morton W 1-0 1496 1503 34.7% 26.5% 38.8% +7.8 10
2021-01-30 Dundee W 3-1 1467 1572 24.6% 25.4% 49.9% +15.5 21
2021-01-30 @ Raith Rovers L 1-3 1572 1467 49.9% 25.4% 24.6% -15.5 20
2021-01-30 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-0 1682 1588 50.6% 25.3% 24.1% +5.3 33
2021-01-30 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-1 1588 1682 24.1% 25.3% 50.6% -5.3 21
2021-02-03 Inverness CT D 1-1 1504 1586 27.1% 25.9% 47.1% +0.8 11
2021-02-03 @ Arbroath D 1-1 1586 1504 47.1% 25.9% 27.1% -0.8 14
2021-02-03 Raith Rovers W 4-1 1582 1483 51.2% 25.2% 23.6% +12.1 24
2021-02-03 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-4 1483 1582 23.6% 25.2% 51.2% -12.1 21
2021-02-05 Heart of Midlothian L 0-1 1555 1687 21.9% 24.8% 53.3% -4.9 17
2021-02-05 @ Ayr United W 1-0 1687 1555 53.3% 24.8% 21.9% +4.9 36
2021-02-06 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-0 1505 1594 26.3% 25.7% 48.0% +17.4 14
2021-02-06 @ Arbroath L 0-2 1594 1505 48.0% 25.7% 26.3% -17.4 24
2021-02-06 Queen Of The South W 2-1 1417 1462 31.6% 26.3% 42.0% +7.8 11
2021-02-06 @ Alloa Athletic L 1-2 1462 1417 42.0% 26.3% 31.6% -7.8 14
2021-02-06 Raith Rovers L 0-1 1496 1471 41.3% 26.4% 32.3% -8.2 17
2021-02-06 @ Greenock Morton W 1-0 1471 1496 32.3% 26.4% 41.3% +8.2 24
2021-02-12 Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1455 1692 14.0% 21.1% 64.9% +2.2 15
2021-02-12 @ Queen Of The South D 1-1 1692 1455 64.9% 21.1% 14.0% -2.2 37
2021-02-13 Arbroath D 1-1 1425 1522 25.4% 25.6% 49.0% +1.0 12
2021-02-13 @ Alloa Athletic D 1-1 1522 1425 49.0% 25.6% 25.4% -1.0 15
2021-02-17 Queen Of The South L 0-1 1586 1457 54.8% 24.4% 20.8% -10.3 14
2021-02-17 @ Inverness CT W 1-0 1457 1586 20.8% 24.4% 54.8% +10.3 18
2021-02-20 Alloa Athletic W 2-1 1577 1426 57.3% 23.8% 18.9% +4.0 27
2021-02-20 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-2 1426 1577 18.9% 23.8% 57.3% -4.0 12
2021-02-20 Greenock Morton D 1-1 1690 1487 62.8% 21.9% 15.2% -2.1 38
2021-02-20 @ Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1487 1690 15.2% 21.9% 62.8% +2.1 18
2021-02-20 Inverness CT L 0-2 1550 1575 34.3% 26.5% 39.3% -13.4 17
2021-02-20 @ Ayr United W 2-0 1575 1550 39.3% 26.5% 34.3% +13.4 17
2021-02-20 Queen Of The South L 2-3 1556 1467 49.9% 25.4% 24.6% -8.5 20
2021-02-20 @ Dundee W 3-2 1467 1556 24.6% 25.4% 49.9% +8.5 21
2021-02-20 Raith Rovers W 1-0 1521 1479 43.8% 26.2% 30.0% +6.4 18
2021-02-20 @ Arbroath L 0-1 1479 1521 30.0% 26.2% 43.8% -6.4 24
2021-02-23 Alloa Athletic D 2-2 1589 1422 59.1% 23.2% 17.7% -1.3 18
2021-02-23 @ Inverness CT D 2-2 1422 1589 17.7% 23.2% 59.1% +1.3 13
2021-02-26 Heart of Midlothian D 1-1 1587 1688 25.1% 25.5% 49.4% +1.0 19
2021-02-26 @ Inverness CT D 1-1 1688 1587 49.4% 25.5% 25.1% -1.0 39
2021-02-27 Alloa Athletic W 3-1 1473 1423 44.7% 26.1% 29.2% +10.2 27
2021-02-27 @ Raith Rovers L 1-3 1423 1473 29.2% 26.1% 44.7% -10.2 13
2021-02-27 Arbroath L 0-1 1537 1528 39.1% 26.5% 34.4% -7.8 17
2021-02-27 @ Ayr United W 1-0 1528 1537 34.4% 26.5% 39.1% +7.8 21
2021-02-27 Dundee D 2-2 1490 1548 29.9% 26.2% 43.8% +0.4 19
2021-02-27 @ Greenock Morton D 2-2 1548 1490 43.8% 26.2% 29.9% -0.4 21
2021-02-27 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-0 1476 1581 24.5% 25.4% 50.0% +9.5 24
2021-02-27 @ Queen Of The South L 0-1 1581 1476 50.0% 25.4% 24.5% -9.5 27
2021-03-02 Inverness CT W 2-1 1547 1588 32.1% 26.4% 41.5% +7.7 24
2021-03-02 @ Dundee L 1-2 1588 1547 41.5% 26.4% 32.1% -7.7 19
2021-03-06 Ayr United L 0-2 1490 1529 32.4% 26.4% 41.2% -12.8 19
2021-03-06 @ Greenock Morton W 2-0 1529 1490 41.2% 26.4% 32.4% +12.9 20
2021-03-06 Dundee W 2-1 1687 1555 55.1% 24.3% 20.6% +4.4 42
2021-03-06 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-2 1555 1687 20.6% 24.3% 55.1% -4.4 24
2021-03-06 Inverness CT D 1-1 1413 1581 18.8% 23.7% 57.5% +1.7 14
2021-03-06 @ Alloa Athletic D 1-1 1581 1413 57.5% 23.7% 18.8% -1.7 20
2021-03-06 Queen Of The South L 2-4 1536 1485 44.9% 26.1% 29.0% -12.7 21
2021-03-06 @ Arbroath W 4-2 1485 1536 29.0% 26.1% 44.9% +12.7 27
2021-03-09 Ayr United D 0-0 1483 1542 29.9% 26.2% 43.9% +0.6 28
2021-03-09 @ Raith Rovers D 0-0 1542 1483 43.9% 26.2% 29.9% -0.6 21
2021-03-09 Greenock Morton L 0-1 1579 1477 51.5% 25.1% 23.4% -9.8 20
2021-03-09 @ Inverness CT W 1-0 1477 1579 23.4% 25.1% 51.5% +9.8 22
2021-03-12 Raith Rovers D 0-0 1569 1483 49.5% 25.5% 25.0% -1.1 21
2021-03-12 @ Inverness CT D 0-0 1483 1569 25.0% 25.5% 49.5% +1.1 29
2021-03-13 Alloa Athletic L 2-3 1498 1415 49.1% 25.6% 25.3% -8.4 27
2021-03-13 @ Queen Of The South W 3-2 1415 1498 25.3% 25.6% 49.1% +8.4 17
2021-03-13 Arbroath W 2-0 1551 1523 41.8% 26.4% 31.9% +12.7 27
2021-03-13 @ Dundee L 0-2 1523 1551 31.9% 26.4% 41.8% -12.7 21
2021-03-13 Ayr United W 2-0 1691 1541 57.2% 23.8% 19.0% +8.1 45
2021-03-13 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-2 1541 1691 19.0% 23.8% 57.2% -8.1 21
2021-03-13 Greenock Morton W 1-0 1571 1487 49.3% 25.5% 25.1% +5.5 30
2021-03-13 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-1 1487 1571 25.1% 25.5% 49.3% -5.5 22
2021-03-16 Ayr United L 1-3 1563 1533 42.1% 26.3% 31.5% -13.5 27
2021-03-16 @ Dundee W 3-1 1533 1563 31.5% 26.3% 42.1% +13.6 24
2021-03-16 Inverness CT L 0-1 1485 1568 26.9% 25.8% 47.2% -5.9 29
2021-03-16 @ Raith Rovers W 1-0 1568 1485 47.2% 25.8% 26.9% +5.9 24
2021-03-19 Dundee L 0-3 1423 1550 22.4% 24.9% 52.7% -13.8 17
2021-03-19 @ Alloa Athletic W 3-0 1550 1423 52.7% 24.9% 22.4% +13.7 30
2021-03-20 Heart of Midlothian D 0-0 1510 1699 17.2% 23.0% 59.8% +2.1 22
2021-03-20 @ Arbroath D 0-0 1699 1510 59.8% 23.0% 17.2% -2.1 46
2021-03-20 Inverness CT L 0-1 1577 1574 38.3% 26.5% 35.2% -7.7 30
2021-03-20 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-0 1574 1577 35.2% 26.5% 38.3% +7.7 27
2021-03-20 Queen Of The South W 2-1 1481 1489 36.7% 26.5% 36.8% +7.1 25
2021-03-20 @ Greenock Morton L 1-2 1489 1481 36.8% 26.5% 36.7% -7.1 27
2021-03-20 Raith Rovers D 1-1 1546 1479 47.2% 25.9% 27.0% -0.8 25
2021-03-20 @ Ayr United D 1-1 1479 1546 27.0% 25.9% 47.2% +0.8 30
2021-03-27 Arbroath W 1-0 1582 1512 47.4% 25.8% 26.8% +5.8 30
2021-03-27 @ Inverness CT L 0-1 1512 1582 26.8% 25.8% 47.4% -5.9 22
2021-03-27 Ayr United D 2-2 1410 1546 21.5% 24.6% 53.8% +1.0 18
2021-03-27 @ Alloa Athletic D 2-2 1546 1410 53.8% 24.6% 21.5% -1.0 26
2021-03-27 Dunfermline Athletic W 3-2 1564 1569 37.0% 26.5% 36.5% +6.7 33
2021-03-27 @ Dundee L 2-3 1569 1564 36.5% 26.5% 37.0% -6.7 30
2021-03-27 Greenock Morton W 1-0 1480 1488 36.6% 26.5% 36.9% +7.5 33
2021-03-27 @ Raith Rovers L 0-1 1488 1480 36.9% 26.5% 36.6% -7.5 25
2021-03-27 Queen Of The South L 2-3 1697 1482 64.1% 21.4% 14.5% -10.5 46
2021-03-27 @ Heart of Midlothian W 3-2 1482 1697 14.5% 21.4% 64.1% +10.5 30
2021-03-30 Dunfermline Athletic W 5-1 1487 1563 27.8% 26.0% 46.2% +26.6 36
2021-03-30 @ Raith Rovers L 1-5 1563 1487 46.2% 26.0% 27.8% -26.6 30
2021-04-03 Alloa Athletic W 2-1 1506 1411 50.8% 25.3% 23.9% +5.0 25
2021-04-03 @ Arbroath L 1-2 1411 1506 23.9% 25.3% 50.8% -5.0 18
2021-04-03 Heart of Midlothian D 0-0 1536 1687 20.2% 24.2% 55.5% +1.7 31
2021-04-03 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-0 1687 1536 55.5% 24.2% 20.2% -1.7 47
2021-04-06 Dundee L 0-3 1545 1570 34.2% 26.5% 39.3% -19.4 26
2021-04-06 @ Ayr United W 3-0 1570 1545 39.3% 26.5% 34.2% +19.4 36
2021-04-06 Inverness CT L 1-4 1481 1588 24.4% 25.4% 50.2% -12.5 25
2021-04-06 @ Greenock Morton W 4-1 1588 1481 50.2% 25.4% 24.4% +12.5 33
2021-04-09 Alloa Athletic W 6-0 1685 1406 70.2% 18.7% 11.0% +12.6 50
2021-04-09 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-6 1406 1685 11.0% 18.7% 70.2% -12.6 18
2021-04-10 Arbroath D 2-2 1514 1511 38.1% 26.5% 35.4% -0.1 37
2021-04-10 @ Raith Rovers D 2-2 1511 1514 35.4% 26.5% 38.1% +0.1 26
2021-04-10 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-1 1525 1538 36.0% 26.5% 37.5% +0.0 27
2021-04-10 @ Ayr United D 1-1 1538 1525 37.5% 26.5% 36.0% -0.1 32
2021-04-10 Greenock Morton D 1-1 1590 1468 53.9% 24.6% 21.5% -1.4 37
2021-04-10 @ Dundee D 1-1 1468 1590 21.5% 24.6% 53.9% +1.4 26
2021-04-10 Inverness CT D 1-1 1493 1600 24.4% 25.4% 50.3% +1.1 31
2021-04-10 @ Queen Of The South D 1-1 1600 1493 50.3% 25.4% 24.4% -1.1 34
2021-04-13 Dundee D 0-0 1538 1588 30.9% 26.3% 42.8% +0.5 33
2021-04-13 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-0 1588 1538 42.8% 26.3% 30.9% -0.5 38
2021-04-13 Raith Rovers L 0-1 1494 1514 35.0% 26.5% 38.5% -7.2 31
2021-04-13 @ Queen Of The South W 1-0 1514 1494 38.5% 26.5% 35.0% +7.2 40
2021-04-17 Ayr United W 4-0 1512 1525 35.9% 26.5% 37.6% +27.2 29
2021-04-17 @ Arbroath L 0-4 1525 1512 37.6% 26.5% 35.9% -27.2 27
2021-04-17 Queen Of The South W 3-1 1538 1487 45.0% 26.1% 28.9% +10.2 36
2021-04-17 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-3 1487 1538 28.9% 26.1% 45.0% -10.2 31
2021-04-17 Raith Rovers L 1-2 1393 1521 22.3% 24.9% 52.8% -4.7 18
2021-04-17 @ Alloa Athletic W 2-1 1521 1393 52.8% 24.9% 22.3% +4.7 43
2021-04-20 Dundee D 1-1 1599 1588 39.4% 26.5% 34.1% -0.2 35
2021-04-20 @ Inverness CT D 1-1 1588 1599 34.1% 26.5% 39.4% +0.2 39
2021-04-20 Heart of Midlothian D 0-0 1470 1698 14.6% 21.5% 63.9% +2.4 27
2021-04-20 @ Greenock Morton D 0-0 1698 1470 63.9% 21.5% 14.6% -2.4 51
2021-04-24 Alloa Athletic D 1-1 1472 1388 49.3% 25.5% 25.2% -1.0 28
2021-04-24 @ Greenock Morton D 1-1 1388 1472 25.2% 25.5% 49.3% +1.0 19
2021-04-24 Arbroath W 4-3 1548 1539 39.2% 26.5% 34.3% +6.2 39
2021-04-24 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 3-4 1539 1548 34.3% 26.5% 39.2% -6.2 29
2021-04-24 Inverness CT W 3-0 1695 1599 50.8% 25.3% 23.9% +14.5 54
2021-04-24 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-3 1599 1695 23.9% 25.3% 50.8% -14.5 35
2021-04-24 Queen Of The South D 0-0 1498 1477 40.9% 26.4% 32.7% -0.4 28
2021-04-24 @ Ayr United D 0-0 1477 1498 32.7% 26.4% 40.9% +0.4 32
2021-04-24 Raith Rovers W 2-1 1588 1526 46.5% 25.9% 27.6% +5.6 42
2021-04-24 @ Dundee L 1-2 1526 1588 27.6% 25.9% 46.5% -5.6 43
2021-04-30 Ayr United D 2-2 1584 1498 49.6% 25.5% 24.9% -0.8 36
2021-04-30 @ Inverness CT D 2-2 1498 1584 24.9% 25.5% 49.6% +0.8 29
2021-04-30 Dundee L 0-2 1477 1594 23.4% 25.1% 51.5% -9.8 32
2021-04-30 @ Queen Of The South W 2-0 1594 1477 51.5% 25.1% 23.4% +9.8 45
2021-04-30 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-0 1389 1555 19.0% 23.8% 57.2% +10.7 22
2021-04-30 @ Alloa Athletic L 0-1 1555 1389 57.2% 23.8% 19.0% -10.7 39
2021-04-30 Greenock Morton D 0-0 1533 1471 46.3% 25.9% 27.7% -0.8 30
2021-04-30 @ Arbroath D 0-0 1471 1533 27.7% 25.9% 46.3% +0.8 29
2021-04-30 Heart of Midlothian L 0-4 1520 1710 17.1% 22.9% 59.9% -13.9 43
2021-04-30 @ Raith Rovers W 4-0 1710 1520 59.9% 22.9% 17.1% +13.9 57

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2021-03-27 14.47% Queen Of The South 1482 3 @ Heart of Midlothian 1697 2
2 2021-01-23 14.95% Raith Rovers 1471 3 @ Heart of Midlothian 1678 2
3 2020-10-17 18.57% @ Raith Rovers 1391 3 Arbroath 1562 0
4 2021-04-30 19.00% @ Alloa Athletic 1389 1 Dunfermline Athletic 1555 0
5 2020-12-19 20.23% @ Alloa Athletic 1446 2 Inverness CT 1597 1
6 2021-02-17 20.81% Queen Of The South 1457 1 @ Inverness CT 1586 0
7 2021-01-02 21.79% @ Dundee 1556 3 Heart of Midlothian 1689 1
8 2020-12-12 23.17% Greenock Morton 1489 2 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1593 1
9 2021-03-09 23.35% Greenock Morton 1477 1 @ Inverness CT 1579 0
10 2021-01-02 24.49% @ Queen Of The South 1445 3 Ayr United 1551 2
11 2021-02-27 24.54% @ Queen Of The South 1476 1 Dunfermline Athletic 1581 0
12 2021-01-30 24.65% @ Raith Rovers 1467 3 Dundee 1572 1
13 2021-02-20 24.65% Queen Of The South 1467 3 @ Dundee 1556 2
14 2020-11-07 25.26% @ Raith Rovers 1440 5 Greenock Morton 1539 0
15 2021-03-13 25.30% Alloa Athletic 1415 3 @ Queen Of The South 1498 2
16 2021-02-06 26.28% @ Arbroath 1505 2 Dunfermline Athletic 1594 0
17 2020-12-12 26.54% Alloa Athletic 1437 1 @ Arbroath 1509 0
18 2020-10-24 27.43% Raith Rovers 1421 5 @ Queen Of The South 1485 2
19 2021-03-30 27.84% @ Raith Rovers 1487 5 Dunfermline Athletic 1563 1
20 2020-12-29 27.97% Queen Of The South 1429 2 @ Raith Rovers 1488 0
21 2020-11-20 28.71% @ Dunfermline Athletic 1585 2 Heart of Midlothian 1654 1
22 2020-12-19 28.82% @ Arbroath 1500 2 Ayr United 1567 1
23 2021-03-06 29.01% Queen Of The South 1485 4 @ Arbroath 1536 2
24 2021-01-23 30.15% @ Queen Of The South 1454 2 Greenock Morton 1511 1
25 2021-03-16 31.53% Ayr United 1533 3 @ Dundee 1563 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2020-11-07 41.44 @ Raith Rovers 5 1440 25.26% Greenock Morton 0 1539 49.19% 25.55%
2 2020-10-17 29.47 @ Raith Rovers 3 1391 18.57% Arbroath 0 1562 57.84% 23.59%
3 2021-04-17 27.24 @ Arbroath 4 1512 35.88% Ayr United 0 1525 37.61% 26.50%
4 2021-03-30 26.62 @ Raith Rovers 5 1487 27.84% Dunfermline Athletic 1 1563 46.19% 25.97%
5 2021-04-06 19.44 Dundee 3 1570 39.31% @ Ayr United 0 1545 34.22% 26.47%
6 2020-10-24 18.01 Raith Rovers 5 1421 27.43% @ Queen Of The South 2 1485 46.65% 25.91%
7 2021-02-06 17.37 @ Arbroath 2 1505 26.28% Dunfermline Athletic 0 1594 47.99% 25.73%
8 2020-12-29 16.80 Queen Of The South 2 1429 27.97% @ Raith Rovers 0 1488 46.05% 25.99%
9 2021-01-02 16.46 @ Dundee 3 1556 21.79% Heart of Midlothian 1 1689 53.48% 24.73%
10 2021-01-30 15.54 @ Raith Rovers 3 1467 24.65% Dundee 1 1572 49.92% 25.43%
11 2020-12-04 14.87 Inverness CT 3 1583 50.07% @ Queen Of The South 0 1477 24.52% 25.41%
12 2020-12-26 14.55 Raith Rovers 5 1473 38.15% @ Alloa Athletic 2 1456 35.35% 26.50%
13 2021-04-24 14.54 @ Heart of Midlothian 3 1695 50.83% Inverness CT 0 1599 23.90% 25.27%
14 2020-10-16 14.53 @ Heart of Midlothian 6 1628 48.07% Dundee 2 1554 26.20% 25.72%
15 2020-11-21 14.14 @ Queen Of The South 2 1463 36.64% Alloa Athletic 0 1471 36.85% 26.51%
16 2021-01-26 14.12 Heart of Midlothian 4 1668 59.52% @ Raith Rovers 0 1482 17.41% 23.07%
17 2021-04-30 13.90 Heart of Midlothian 4 1710 59.92% @ Raith Rovers 0 1520 17.14% 22.94%
18 2020-11-21 13.82 @ Ayr United 2 1544 37.79% Dundee 0 1545 35.71% 26.50%
19 2021-03-19 13.75 Dundee 3 1550 52.67% @ Alloa Athletic 0 1423 22.43% 24.90%
20 2020-10-24 13.57 Dunfermline Athletic 4 1568 47.23% @ Alloa Athletic 1 1484 26.93% 25.84%
21 2021-03-16 13.56 Ayr United 3 1533 31.53% @ Dundee 1 1563 42.13% 26.34%
22 2021-02-20 13.39 Inverness CT 2 1575 39.27% @ Ayr United 0 1550 34.26% 26.47%
23 2021-03-06 12.85 Ayr United 2 1529 41.18% @ Greenock Morton 0 1490 32.43% 26.39%
24 2020-10-17 12.84 @ Dunfermline Athletic 3 1555 34.24% Inverness CT 1 1580 39.29% 26.47%
25 2021-03-06 12.74 Queen Of The South 4 1485 29.01% @ Arbroath 2 1536 44.88% 26.11%