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2019-20 Championship Season

137 games

Final

Promoted

—

No promotions.

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Alloa Athletic

6.63 points above expected

31 points · 24.37 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Partick Thistle

5.16 points below expected

26 points · 31.16 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Dundee United 28 18 5 5 59 52 22 +30 53.44 +5.56
2 Inverness CT 27 14 3 10 45 39 32 +7 45.62 -0.62
3 Dundee 27 11 8 8 41 32 31 +1 37.65 +3.35
4 Ayr United 27 12 4 11 40 38 35 +3 38.51 +1.49
5 Dunfermline Athletic 28 10 7 11 37 41 36 +5 39.61 -2.61
6 Arbroath 26 10 6 10 36 24 26 -2 40.95 -4.95
7 Greenock Morton 28 10 6 12 36 45 52 -7 32.36 +3.64
8 Alloa Athletic 28 7 10 11 31 33 43 -10 24.37 +6.63
9 Queen Of The South 28 7 7 14 28 28 40 -12 31.71 -3.71
10 Partick Thistle 27 6 8 13 26 32 47 -15 31.16 -5.16

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Dundee United 1620 59 64.40 -5.40 26.2% 34 52 59 64 70 77 91
Inverness CT 1551 45 57.95 -12.95 5.1% 30 45 53 58 63 71 86
Arbroath 1524 36 54.65 -18.65 0.9% 23 42 49 55 60 67 83
Dunfermline Athletic 1514 37 50.57 -13.57 4.0% 21 38 45 50 56 63 77
Dundee 1512 41 49.98 -8.98 13.2% 22 38 45 50 55 63 76
Ayr United 1499 40 50.84 -10.84 9.0% 23 38 46 51 56 64 81
Greenock Morton 1481 36 43.32 -7.32 18.2% 16 31 38 43 48 56 71
Partick Thistle 1439 26 43.49 -17.49 0.9% 18 31 38 43 48 56 76
Alloa Athletic 1421 31 35.33 -4.33 30.7% 12 24 30 35 40 48 62
Queen Of The South 1420 28 42.67 -14.67 2.6% 19 31 38 43 48 55 70

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AA ARB AU DUN DU DA GM IC PT QOTS
Alloa Athletic —
1-0-2
2.78
0-0-3
3.09
0-1-2
2.91
1-1-1
2.15
2-1-0
2.60
0-1-2
3.40
1-2-1
3.31
0-3-0
3.45
2-1-0
3.08
Arbroath
2-0-1
5.47
 —
0-1-1
2.93
0-1-1
3.07
1-0-2
3.11
1-1-1
4.81
1-1-2
6.73
2-0-1
3.72
2-1-0
5.00
1-1-1
5.09
Ayr United
3-0-0
5.13
1-1-0
2.53
 —
0-1-3
5.70
1-1-1
3.17
1-0-2
4.09
2-0-1
4.90
1-0-2
3.89
2-1-0
4.45
1-0-2
4.79
Dundee
2-1-0
5.32
1-1-0
2.40
3-1-0
5.23
 —
0-1-2
2.99
1-1-1
3.78
1-1-1
4.48
0-1-2
3.86
2-0-1
4.75
1-1-1
4.33
Dundee United
1-1-1
6.19
2-0-1
5.12
1-1-1
5.05
2-1-0
5.25
 —
2-0-1
4.90
2-1-0
6.03
3-0-0
4.47
3-1-0
7.32
2-0-1
5.41
Dunfermline Athletic
0-1-2
5.67
1-1-1
3.40
2-0-1
4.11
1-1-1
4.41
1-0-2
3.31
 —
1-1-1
4.64
0-0-3
3.68
2-1-0
4.38
2-2-0
6.11
Greenock Morton
2-1-0
4.80
2-1-1
4.23
1-0-2
3.30
1-1-1
3.73
0-1-2
2.28
1-1-1
3.57
 —
1-0-2
2.89
1-0-2
4.14
1-1-1
3.89
Inverness CT
1-2-1
7.73
1-0-2
4.47
2-0-1
4.31
2-1-0
4.33
0-0-3
3.74
3-0-0
4.51
2-0-1
5.33
 —
0-0-2
3.62
3-0-0
5.43
Partick Thistle
0-3-0
4.75
0-1-2
3.22
0-1-2
3.75
1-0-2
3.45
0-1-3
3.71
0-1-2
3.82
2-0-1
4.06
2-0-0
1.88
 —
1-1-1
4.31
Queen Of The South
0-1-2
5.14
1-1-1
3.14
2-0-1
3.41
1-1-1
3.86
1-0-2
2.83
0-2-2
4.84
1-1-1
4.30
0-0-3
2.82
1-1-1
3.90
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.50 +8.0
Allowed 0.52 -7.3
Differential 0.95 +7.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.84%8.39%8.76%2.19%1.09%0.73%27.01%
18.39%13.87%8.03%2.92%1.82%0.36%35.40%
28.76%8.03%2.92%2.92%0.36%0.36%23.36%
32.19%2.92%2.92%—0.36%—8.39%
41.09%1.82%0.36%0.36%0.73%—4.38%
5+0.73%0.36%0.36%———1.46%
Total27.01%35.40%23.36%8.39%4.38%1.46%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.33 +0.00
SD 1.20 1.20 1.77
CV 0.90 0.90 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 137

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%3.57%10.71%3.57%——25.00%
17.14%17.86%14.29%—7.14%—46.43%
27.14%3.57%7.14%———17.86%
3—3.57%3.57%———7.14%
4————3.57%—3.57%
5+———————
Total21.43%28.57%35.71%3.57%10.71%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.54 -0.36
SD 1.02 1.20 1.45
CV 0.87 0.78 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%7.69%15.38%3.85%——34.62%
119.23%15.38%11.54%———46.15%
23.85%7.69%————11.54%
33.85%3.85%————7.69%
4———————
5+———————
Total34.62%34.62%26.92%3.85%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.92 1.00 -0.08
SD 0.89 0.89 1.47
CV 0.97 0.89 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.41%7.41%11.11%—3.70%—29.63%
111.11%7.41%11.11%3.70%——33.33%
27.41%3.70%—3.70%——14.81%
33.70%—7.41%———11.11%
4—7.41%3.70%———11.11%
5+———————
Total29.63%25.93%33.33%7.41%3.70%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.30 +0.11
SD 1.34 1.10 1.78
CV 0.95 0.85 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%7.41%11.11%———29.63%
111.11%14.81%3.70%3.70%——33.33%
211.11%11.11%3.70%——3.70%29.63%
33.70%—————3.70%
4———3.70%——3.70%
5+———————
Total37.04%33.33%18.52%7.41%—3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.15 +0.04
SD 1.04 1.35 1.56
CV 0.88 1.18 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%7.14%—3.57%—25.00%
110.71%10.71%————21.43%
210.71%17.86%————28.57%
37.14%—————7.14%
43.57%7.14%————10.71%
5+3.57%—3.57%———7.14%
Total42.86%42.86%10.71%—3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 0.79 +1.07
SD 1.72 0.92 2.09
CV 0.92 1.17 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%10.71%10.71%———25.00%
13.57%17.86%7.14%3.57%——32.14%
214.29%—3.57%3.57%——21.43%
33.57%3.57%7.14%—3.57%—17.86%
4———————
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total25.00%35.71%28.57%7.14%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 1.29 +0.18
SD 1.26 1.05 1.61
CV 0.86 0.82 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%———7.14%14.29%
17.14%14.29%14.29%3.57%——39.29%
23.57%10.71%3.57%7.14%3.57%—28.57%
3——7.14%———7.14%
43.57%3.57%——3.57%—10.71%
5+———————
Total14.29%35.71%25.00%10.71%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.86 -0.25
SD 1.17 1.51 2.03
CV 0.73 0.81 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%7.41%3.70%7.41%——22.22%
17.41%3.70%7.41%7.41%3.70%—29.63%
225.93%7.41%3.70%———37.04%
3—3.70%3.70%———7.41%
4———————
5+3.70%—————3.70%
Total40.74%22.22%18.52%14.81%3.70%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.19 +0.26
SD 1.15 1.24 1.99
CV 0.80 1.05 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%11.11%3.70%3.70%——22.22%
1—25.93%7.41%3.70%7.41%3.70%48.15%
2—11.11%—7.41%——18.52%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total3.70%59.26%11.11%14.81%7.41%3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.74 -0.56
SD 0.92 1.23 1.58
CV 0.78 0.71 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%14.29%3.57%3.57%—42.86%
17.14%10.71%3.57%3.57%——25.00%
23.57%7.14%7.14%7.14%——25.00%
3—3.57%————3.57%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+———————
Total21.43%35.71%25.00%14.29%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.43 -0.43
SD 1.09 1.10 1.67
CV 1.09 0.77 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Alloa Athletic 31 24.37 +6.63
2 Dundee United 59 53.44 +5.56
3 Greenock Morton 36 32.36 +3.64
4 Dundee 41 37.65 +3.35
5 Ayr United 40 38.51 +1.49

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Partick Thistle 26 31.16 -5.16
2 Arbroath 36 40.95 -4.95
3 Queen Of The South 28 31.71 -3.71
4 Dunfermline Athletic 37 39.61 -2.61
5 Inverness CT 45 45.62 -0.62

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dundee United 9 Oct 26 – Dec 21 1 in 644
2 Ayr United 5 Aug 24 – Sep 28 1 in 171
3 Arbroath 3 Jan 25 – Feb 15 1 in 25
4 Alloa Athletic 2 Jan 21 – Jan 25 1 in 18
5 Dundee 3 Oct 25 – Nov 1 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dunfermline Athletic 5 Dec 14 – Jan 11 1 in 350
2 Ayr United 3 Oct 5 – Oct 25 1 in 36
3 Queen Of The South 3 Jan 4 – Feb 1 1 in 29
4 Arbroath 3 Sep 21 – Oct 5 1 in 23
5 Dundee 3 Nov 8 – Nov 30 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Alloa Athletic 7 Dec 28 – Feb 22 1 in 222
2 Greenock Morton 8 Jan 4 – Feb 29 1 in 114
3 Dundee United 13 Oct 26 – Jan 25 1 in 34
4 Dundee 6 Feb 1 – Mar 10 1 in 12
5 Ayr United 5 Aug 24 – Sep 28 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Queen Of The South 10 Jan 4 – Mar 10 1 in 56
2 Dundee United 3 Jan 25 – Feb 14 1 in 19
3 Partick Thistle 8 Jan 4 – Mar 10 1 in 18
4 Arbroath 5 Nov 16 – Dec 21 1 in 13
5 Dunfermline Athletic 5 Aug 2 – Sep 14 1 in 8

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Dundee United56.66%22.15%10.10%5.55%2.99%1.53%0.64%0.28%0.07%0.03%
Inverness CT19.85%25.92%18.54%13.79%9.05%6.24%3.68%1.98%0.76%0.19%
Dundee3.58%8.68%12.75%14.28%15.75%15.12%12.17%9.04%6.12%2.51%
Ayr United4.69%10.26%13.71%15.26%15.53%13.70%10.91%8.58%5.07%2.29%
Dunfermline Athletic3.91%9.58%14.46%15.59%15.02%13.78%11.61%8.31%5.60%2.14%
Arbroath9.59%18.22%19.21%16.36%13.12%10.02%6.39%3.95%2.49%0.65%
Greenock Morton0.62%1.70%3.79%6.55%8.95%12.49%16.12%18.52%18.91%12.35%
Alloa Athletic0.01%0.14%0.58%1.04%1.93%3.60%6.89%11.97%21.93%51.91%
Queen Of The South0.37%1.41%3.16%5.43%8.79%11.10%15.24%19.37%20.16%14.97%
Partick Thistle0.72%1.94%3.70%6.15%8.87%12.42%16.35%18.00%18.89%12.96%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+10.95%
Slight Edge
43.80%23.36%32.85%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 38.19 Elo pts.
249 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.29 goals
Neutral
-2+0.15+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.7
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
57%
Dundee United, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.52/gm
Comfortable
00.210.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.27 * Some Luck: 5.27 to 7.91 * Lucky: 7.91 to 10.55 * Wild Swing: 10.55 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.48 * Close: 1.48 to 2.22 * Off: 2.22 to 2.95 * Way Off: 2.95 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.49 points
As Expected
06.5916
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Pinpoint
01.854
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
90.84%
Dundee United
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
15.48%
Partick Thistle
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.13
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.21
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
60%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
76%
Clear Edge
50%76%100%
Close Games
Expected
63%
Very Frequent
0%60%100%
Blowouts
Expected
13%
Occasional
0%16%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.65
Hard to Predict
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.27
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.47
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.60
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
32%
As Expected
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
33%
Shaky Favorites
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.
Probability calibration
0.56
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.56
Overconfident
0.4264651.001.57354
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.091
Well Within Noise
00.1320.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Same level
Dundee United 56.66% 43.34%
Inverness CT 19.85% 80.15%
Arbroath 9.59% 90.41%
Ayr United 4.69% 95.31%
Dunfermline Athletic 3.91% 96.09%
Dundee 3.58% 96.42%
Partick Thistle 0.72% 99.28%
Greenock Morton 0.62% 99.38%
Queen Of The South 0.37% 99.63%
Alloa Athletic 0.01% 99.99%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2019-08-02 Dundee D 2-2 1496 1500 42.7% 27.0% 30.3% -0.3 1
2019-08-02 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 2-2 1500 1496 30.3% 27.0% 42.7% +0.3 1
2019-08-03 Greenock Morton W 4-2 1489 1474 45.3% 26.7% 28.0% +8.2 3
2019-08-03 @ Ayr United L 2-4 1474 1489 28.0% 26.7% 45.3% -8.2 0
2019-08-03 Inverness CT W 4-1 1532 1550 40.8% 27.1% 32.1% +14.4 3
2019-08-03 @ Dundee United L 1-4 1550 1532 32.1% 27.1% 40.8% -14.4 0
2019-08-03 Partick Thistle D 1-1 1419 1495 32.7% 27.2% 40.1% +0.3 1
2019-08-03 @ Alloa Athletic D 1-1 1495 1419 40.1% 27.2% 32.7% -0.3 1
2019-08-03 Queen Of The South D 0-0 1562 1464 55.8% 24.4% 19.8% -1.6 1
2019-08-03 @ Arbroath D 0-0 1464 1562 19.8% 24.4% 55.8% +1.6 1
2019-08-09 Dundee United L 1-2 1494 1547 35.8% 27.3% 36.9% -6.4 1
2019-08-09 @ Partick Thistle W 2-1 1547 1494 36.9% 27.3% 35.8% +6.4 6
2019-08-10 Alloa Athletic W 4-1 1466 1420 49.4% 26.0% 24.6% +11.6 3
2019-08-10 @ Greenock Morton L 1-4 1420 1466 24.6% 26.0% 49.4% -11.6 1
2019-08-10 Arbroath W 2-1 1536 1560 39.9% 27.2% 33.0% +6.0 3
2019-08-10 @ Inverness CT L 1-2 1560 1536 33.0% 27.2% 39.9% -6.0 1
2019-08-10 Ayr United W 1-0 1500 1497 43.6% 26.9% 29.5% +5.9 4
2019-08-10 @ Dundee L 0-1 1497 1500 29.5% 26.9% 43.6% -5.9 3
2019-08-10 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-1 1465 1495 39.1% 27.2% 33.7% -0.2 2
2019-08-10 @ Queen Of The South D 1-1 1495 1465 33.7% 27.2% 39.1% +0.2 2
2019-08-23 Partick Thistle W 3-2 1477 1488 41.8% 27.1% 31.1% +5.5 6
2019-08-23 @ Greenock Morton L 2-3 1488 1477 31.1% 27.1% 41.8% -5.5 1
2019-08-24 Arbroath L 0-1 1408 1554 24.3% 26.0% 49.7% -5.0 1
2019-08-24 @ Alloa Athletic W 1-0 1554 1408 49.7% 26.0% 24.3% +5.0 4
2019-08-24 Dundee United L 0-2 1496 1553 35.1% 27.2% 37.6% -12.6 2
2019-08-24 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-0 1553 1496 37.6% 27.2% 35.1% +12.6 9
2019-08-24 Inverness CT D 0-0 1506 1542 38.2% 27.2% 34.5% -0.2 5
2019-08-24 @ Dundee D 0-0 1542 1506 34.5% 27.2% 38.2% +0.2 4
2019-08-24 Queen Of The South W 1-0 1491 1465 46.8% 26.5% 26.7% +5.4 6
2019-08-24 @ Ayr United L 0-1 1465 1491 26.7% 26.5% 46.8% -5.4 2
2019-08-30 Dundee W 6-2 1566 1506 51.2% 25.7% 23.2% +12.1 12
2019-08-30 @ Dundee United L 2-6 1506 1566 23.2% 25.7% 51.2% -12.1 5
2019-08-30 Greenock Morton W 5-0 1542 1483 51.0% 25.7% 23.3% +21.1 7
2019-08-30 @ Inverness CT L 0-5 1483 1542 23.3% 25.7% 51.0% -21.2 6
2019-08-31 Alloa Athletic L 0-1 1460 1403 50.8% 25.7% 23.5% -8.9 2
2019-08-31 @ Queen Of The South W 1-0 1403 1460 23.5% 25.7% 50.8% +8.9 4
2019-08-31 Ayr United L 2-3 1482 1497 41.3% 27.1% 31.6% -6.8 1
2019-08-31 @ Partick Thistle W 3-2 1497 1482 31.6% 27.1% 41.3% +6.7 9
2019-08-31 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-0 1559 1483 53.2% 25.2% 21.7% +4.5 7
2019-08-31 @ Arbroath L 0-1 1483 1559 21.7% 25.2% 53.2% -4.5 2
2019-09-13 Partick Thistle D 1-1 1564 1476 54.6% 24.8% 20.6% -1.3 8
2019-09-13 @ Arbroath D 1-1 1476 1564 20.6% 24.8% 54.6% +1.3 2
2019-09-14 Alloa Athletic W 2-1 1494 1412 53.8% 25.0% 21.2% +4.1 8
2019-09-14 @ Dundee L 1-2 1412 1494 21.2% 25.0% 53.8% -4.2 4
2019-09-14 Dundee United W 2-0 1504 1578 32.8% 27.2% 40.0% +13.9 12
2019-09-14 @ Ayr United L 0-2 1578 1504 40.0% 27.2% 32.8% -13.9 12
2019-09-14 Greenock Morton W 1-0 1451 1462 41.8% 27.1% 31.2% +6.1 5
2019-09-14 @ Queen Of The South L 0-1 1462 1451 31.2% 27.1% 41.8% -6.1 6
2019-09-14 Inverness CT L 0-1 1479 1563 31.5% 27.1% 41.4% -6.2 2
2019-09-14 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-0 1563 1479 41.4% 27.1% 31.5% +6.2 10
2019-09-21 Arbroath W 2-1 1564 1562 43.5% 26.9% 29.6% +5.5 15
2019-09-21 @ Dundee United L 1-2 1562 1564 29.6% 26.9% 43.5% -5.5 8
2019-09-21 Ayr United L 1-4 1408 1517 28.4% 26.7% 44.9% -13.1 4
2019-09-21 @ Alloa Athletic W 4-1 1517 1408 44.9% 26.7% 28.4% +13.1 15
2019-09-21 Dundee W 1-0 1456 1498 37.3% 27.2% 35.4% +6.7 9
2019-09-21 @ Greenock Morton L 0-1 1498 1456 35.4% 27.2% 37.3% -6.7 8
2019-09-21 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-3 1477 1472 43.9% 26.9% 29.2% -21.7 2
2019-09-21 @ Partick Thistle W 3-0 1472 1477 29.2% 26.9% 43.9% +21.7 5
2019-09-21 Queen Of The South W 2-0 1569 1457 57.5% 23.9% 18.6% +7.3 13
2019-09-21 @ Inverness CT L 0-2 1457 1569 18.6% 23.9% 57.5% -7.3 5
2019-09-27 Dundee D 1-1 1450 1491 37.5% 27.2% 35.3% -0.1 6
2019-09-27 @ Queen Of The South D 1-1 1491 1450 35.3% 27.2% 37.5% +0.1 9
2019-09-28 Alloa Athletic D 1-1 1494 1395 56.0% 24.4% 19.7% -1.4 6
2019-09-28 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-1 1395 1494 19.7% 24.4% 56.0% +1.4 5
2019-09-28 Ayr United L 0-3 1557 1531 46.8% 26.5% 26.7% -22.8 8
2019-09-28 @ Arbroath W 3-0 1531 1557 26.7% 26.5% 46.8% +22.8 18
2019-09-28 Greenock Morton W 6-0 1570 1462 56.9% 24.1% 19.0% +20.8 18
2019-09-28 @ Dundee United L 0-6 1462 1570 19.0% 24.1% 56.9% -20.8 9
2019-09-28 Partick Thistle L 1-3 1577 1455 58.5% 23.6% 17.9% -16.3 13
2019-09-28 @ Inverness CT W 3-1 1455 1577 17.9% 23.6% 58.5% +16.3 5
2019-10-04 Dundee United W 1-0 1396 1590 19.9% 24.5% 55.6% +9.6 8
2019-10-04 @ Alloa Athletic L 0-1 1590 1396 55.6% 24.5% 19.9% -9.6 18
2019-10-05 Arbroath W 2-0 1491 1534 37.2% 27.3% 35.5% +12.7 12
2019-10-05 @ Dundee L 0-2 1534 1491 35.5% 27.3% 37.2% -12.7 8
2019-10-05 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-1 1442 1493 36.0% 27.3% 36.7% +0.0 10
2019-10-05 @ Greenock Morton D 1-1 1493 1442 36.7% 27.3% 36.0% -0.0 7
2019-10-05 Inverness CT L 0-2 1553 1560 42.3% 27.0% 30.7% -14.5 18
2019-10-05 @ Ayr United W 2-0 1560 1553 30.7% 27.0% 42.3% +14.5 16
2019-10-05 Queen Of The South L 0-1 1472 1450 46.2% 26.6% 27.2% -8.2 5
2019-10-05 @ Partick Thistle W 1-0 1450 1472 27.2% 26.6% 46.2% +8.2 9
2019-10-19 Alloa Athletic D 2-2 1575 1406 63.7% 21.6% 14.8% -1.5 17
2019-10-19 @ Inverness CT D 2-2 1406 1575 14.8% 21.6% 63.7% +1.5 9
2019-10-19 Ayr United W 3-2 1493 1539 36.7% 27.3% 36.0% +6.1 10
2019-10-19 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 2-3 1539 1493 36.0% 27.3% 36.7% -6.1 18
2019-10-19 Dundee United W 4-0 1458 1581 26.8% 26.5% 46.7% +29.7 12
2019-10-19 @ Queen Of The South L 0-4 1581 1458 46.7% 26.5% 26.8% -29.7 18
2019-10-19 Greenock Morton W 1-0 1521 1442 53.6% 25.1% 21.3% +4.4 11
2019-10-19 @ Arbroath L 0-1 1442 1521 21.3% 25.1% 53.6% -4.4 10
2019-10-19 Partick Thistle L 1-3 1504 1463 48.7% 26.2% 25.2% -14.0 12
2019-10-19 @ Dundee W 3-1 1463 1504 25.2% 26.2% 48.7% +14.0 8
2019-10-25 Dundee L 1-2 1533 1490 49.0% 26.1% 24.9% -8.1 18
2019-10-25 @ Ayr United W 2-1 1490 1533 24.9% 26.1% 49.0% +8.2 15
2019-10-26 Arbroath L 1-3 1477 1526 36.4% 27.3% 36.3% -11.2 8
2019-10-26 @ Partick Thistle W 3-1 1526 1477 36.3% 27.3% 36.4% +11.2 14
2019-10-26 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-0 1551 1499 50.2% 25.9% 23.9% +9.3 21
2019-10-26 @ Dundee United L 0-2 1499 1551 23.9% 25.9% 50.2% -9.3 10
2019-10-26 Inverness CT W 2-1 1437 1573 25.4% 26.2% 48.4% +8.1 13
2019-10-26 @ Greenock Morton L 1-2 1573 1437 48.4% 26.2% 25.4% -8.1 17
2019-10-26 Queen Of The South D 2-2 1407 1488 32.0% 27.1% 40.9% +0.2 10
2019-10-26 @ Alloa Athletic D 2-2 1488 1407 40.9% 27.1% 32.0% -0.2 13
2019-10-29 Arbroath W 2-0 1489 1537 36.6% 27.3% 36.2% +12.9 13
2019-10-29 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-2 1537 1489 36.2% 27.3% 36.6% -12.9 14
2019-10-29 Ayr United L 2-3 1445 1525 32.1% 27.1% 40.7% -5.6 13
2019-10-29 @ Greenock Morton W 3-2 1525 1445 40.7% 27.1% 32.1% +5.6 21
2019-10-29 Dundee L 0-3 1407 1498 30.7% 27.0% 42.3% -16.5 10
2019-10-29 @ Alloa Athletic W 3-0 1498 1407 42.3% 27.0% 30.7% +16.5 18
2019-10-29 Inverness CT L 0-2 1487 1565 32.4% 27.1% 40.5% -11.9 13
2019-10-29 @ Queen Of The South W 2-0 1565 1487 40.5% 27.1% 32.4% +11.9 20
2019-10-29 Partick Thistle W 1-0 1560 1466 55.3% 24.6% 20.1% +4.2 24
2019-10-29 @ Dundee United L 0-1 1466 1560 20.1% 24.6% 55.3% -4.2 8
2019-11-01 Greenock Morton W 2-1 1515 1440 53.0% 25.2% 21.8% +4.3 21
2019-11-01 @ Dundee L 1-2 1440 1515 21.8% 25.2% 53.0% -4.3 13
2019-11-02 Alloa Athletic W 2-1 1524 1391 59.8% 23.1% 17.1% +3.4 17
2019-11-02 @ Arbroath L 1-2 1391 1524 17.1% 23.1% 59.8% -3.4 10
2019-11-02 Dundee United L 0-3 1577 1565 45.0% 26.7% 28.3% -22.1 20
2019-11-02 @ Inverness CT W 3-0 1565 1577 28.3% 26.7% 45.0% +22.1 27
2019-11-02 Partick Thistle W 4-1 1530 1462 52.2% 25.4% 22.4% +10.7 24
2019-11-02 @ Ayr United L 1-4 1462 1530 22.4% 25.4% 52.2% -10.7 8
2019-11-02 Queen Of The South W 2-0 1502 1476 46.9% 26.5% 26.7% +10.2 16
2019-11-02 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-2 1476 1502 26.7% 26.5% 46.9% -10.2 13
2019-11-08 Dundee United L 0-2 1519 1587 33.7% 27.2% 39.1% -12.2 21
2019-11-08 @ Dundee W 2-0 1587 1519 39.1% 27.2% 33.7% +12.2 30
2019-11-09 Ayr United W 3-1 1465 1541 32.7% 27.2% 40.2% +12.1 16
2019-11-09 @ Queen Of The South L 1-3 1541 1465 40.2% 27.2% 32.7% -12.1 24
2019-11-09 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-1 1387 1512 26.6% 26.5% 46.9% +7.9 13
2019-11-09 @ Alloa Athletic L 1-2 1512 1387 46.9% 26.5% 26.6% -7.9 16
2019-11-09 Greenock Morton W 2-1 1451 1435 45.4% 26.7% 27.9% +5.3 11
2019-11-09 @ Partick Thistle L 1-2 1435 1451 27.9% 26.7% 45.4% -5.3 13
2019-11-09 Inverness CT W 3-0 1527 1555 39.4% 27.2% 33.4% +17.7 20
2019-11-09 @ Arbroath L 0-3 1555 1527 33.4% 27.2% 39.4% -17.6 20
2019-11-16 Arbroath W 1-0 1430 1545 27.7% 26.7% 45.6% +8.2 16
2019-11-16 @ Greenock Morton L 0-1 1545 1430 45.6% 26.7% 27.7% -8.2 20
2019-11-16 Queen Of The South W 3-0 1599 1477 58.5% 23.6% 17.9% +10.3 33
2019-11-16 @ Dundee United L 0-3 1477 1599 17.9% 23.6% 58.5% -10.3 16
2019-11-23 Dundee W 1-0 1537 1507 47.4% 26.4% 26.2% +5.3 23
2019-11-23 @ Inverness CT L 0-1 1507 1537 26.2% 26.4% 47.4% -5.3 21
2019-11-26 Alloa Athletic D 1-1 1457 1395 51.3% 25.6% 23.1% -1.1 12
2019-11-26 @ Partick Thistle D 1-1 1395 1457 23.1% 25.6% 51.3% +1.1 14
2019-11-30 Inverness CT L 0-2 1396 1543 24.3% 26.0% 49.7% -9.4 14
2019-11-30 @ Alloa Athletic W 2-0 1543 1396 49.7% 26.0% 24.3% +9.4 26
2019-11-30 Partick Thistle W 5-1 1505 1456 49.8% 25.9% 24.3% +14.9 19
2019-11-30 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-5 1456 1505 24.3% 25.9% 49.8% -14.8 12
2019-11-30 Queen Of The South L 1-2 1501 1467 47.8% 26.3% 25.9% -8.0 21
2019-11-30 @ Dundee W 2-1 1467 1501 25.9% 26.3% 47.8% +8.0 19
2019-12-03 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-1 1529 1519 44.5% 26.8% 28.7% -8.0 24
2019-12-03 @ Ayr United W 1-0 1519 1529 28.7% 26.8% 44.5% +8.0 22
2019-12-07 Alloa Athletic W 2-1 1609 1387 69.0% 19.1% 11.9% +2.2 36
2019-12-07 @ Dundee United L 1-2 1387 1609 11.9% 19.1% 69.0% -2.2 14
2019-12-07 Ayr United W 2-0 1552 1521 47.5% 26.4% 26.2% +10.0 29
2019-12-07 @ Inverness CT L 0-2 1521 1552 26.2% 26.4% 47.5% -10.0 24
2019-12-07 Dundee D 1-1 1537 1493 49.1% 26.1% 24.8% -0.9 21
2019-12-07 @ Arbroath D 1-1 1493 1537 24.8% 26.1% 49.1% +0.9 22
2019-12-07 Greenock Morton W 3-1 1527 1438 54.8% 24.8% 20.5% +7.0 25
2019-12-07 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-3 1438 1527 20.5% 24.8% 54.8% -7.0 16
2019-12-07 Partick Thistle L 1-2 1475 1441 47.9% 26.3% 25.8% -8.0 19
2019-12-07 @ Queen Of The South W 2-1 1441 1475 25.8% 26.3% 47.9% +8.0 15
2019-12-10 Arbroath D 1-1 1511 1536 39.8% 27.2% 33.1% -0.2 25
2019-12-10 @ Ayr United D 1-1 1536 1511 33.1% 27.2% 39.8% +0.2 22
2019-12-10 Dundee United L 1-2 1431 1611 21.1% 25.0% 53.9% -4.1 16
2019-12-10 @ Greenock Morton W 2-1 1611 1431 53.9% 25.0% 21.1% +4.1 39
2019-12-14 Alloa Athletic W 2-1 1511 1385 59.0% 23.4% 17.6% +3.5 28
2019-12-14 @ Ayr United L 1-2 1385 1511 17.6% 23.4% 59.0% -3.5 14
2019-12-14 Dundee United L 0-1 1536 1616 32.2% 27.1% 40.7% -6.3 22
2019-12-14 @ Arbroath W 1-0 1616 1536 40.7% 27.1% 32.2% +6.3 42
2019-12-14 Dunfermline Athletic W 4-3 1494 1534 37.6% 27.2% 35.1% +5.8 25
2019-12-14 @ Dundee L 3-4 1534 1494 35.1% 27.2% 37.6% -5.9 25
2019-12-14 Inverness CT W 3-1 1449 1562 27.9% 26.7% 45.4% +13.3 18
2019-12-14 @ Partick Thistle L 1-3 1562 1449 45.4% 26.7% 27.9% -13.3 29
2019-12-21 Arbroath W 2-0 1467 1530 34.4% 27.2% 38.4% +13.5 22
2019-12-21 @ Queen Of The South L 0-2 1530 1467 38.4% 27.2% 34.4% -13.5 22
2019-12-21 Ayr United W 4-0 1622 1514 56.9% 24.1% 19.0% +14.2 45
2019-12-21 @ Dundee United L 0-4 1514 1622 19.0% 24.1% 56.9% -14.2 28
2019-12-21 Dundee L 0-1 1462 1500 37.9% 27.2% 34.8% -7.1 18
2019-12-21 @ Partick Thistle W 1-0 1500 1462 34.8% 27.2% 37.9% +7.1 28
2019-12-21 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-0 1549 1529 46.0% 26.6% 27.4% +10.4 32
2019-12-21 @ Inverness CT L 0-2 1529 1549 27.4% 26.6% 46.0% -10.4 25
2019-12-21 Greenock Morton L 0-2 1381 1427 36.8% 27.3% 35.9% -13.1 14
2019-12-21 @ Alloa Athletic W 2-0 1427 1381 35.9% 27.3% 36.8% +13.1 19
2019-12-27 Dundee D 1-1 1636 1507 59.4% 23.3% 17.4% -1.7 46
2019-12-27 @ Dundee United D 1-1 1507 1636 17.4% 23.3% 59.4% +1.7 29
2019-12-28 Alloa Athletic L 1-3 1518 1368 61.7% 22.4% 16.0% -17.0 25
2019-12-28 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 3-1 1368 1518 16.0% 22.4% 61.7% +17.0 17
2019-12-28 Arbroath L 0-1 1559 1516 49.0% 26.1% 24.9% -8.6 32
2019-12-28 @ Inverness CT W 1-0 1516 1559 24.9% 26.1% 49.0% +8.6 25
2019-12-28 Partick Thistle L 1-2 1440 1455 41.2% 27.1% 31.7% -7.1 19
2019-12-28 @ Greenock Morton W 2-1 1455 1440 31.7% 27.1% 41.2% +7.1 21
2019-12-28 Queen Of The South L 1-2 1500 1481 45.9% 26.6% 27.5% -7.7 28
2019-12-28 @ Ayr United W 2-1 1481 1500 27.5% 26.6% 45.9% +7.7 25
2020-01-04 Ayr United L 0-1 1501 1492 44.5% 26.8% 28.7% -8.0 25
2020-01-04 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-0 1492 1501 28.7% 26.8% 44.5% +8.0 31
2020-01-04 Dundee United L 0-1 1488 1634 24.3% 26.0% 49.7% -5.0 25
2020-01-04 @ Queen Of The South W 1-0 1634 1488 49.7% 26.0% 24.3% +5.0 49
2020-01-04 Greenock Morton L 1-2 1525 1433 55.1% 24.6% 20.3% -9.0 25
2020-01-04 @ Arbroath W 2-1 1433 1525 20.3% 24.6% 55.1% +9.0 22
2020-01-04 Inverness CT L 0-2 1509 1551 37.4% 27.2% 35.4% -13.2 29
2020-01-04 @ Dundee W 2-0 1551 1509 35.4% 27.2% 37.4% +13.2 35
2020-01-04 Partick Thistle D 1-1 1385 1462 32.5% 27.1% 40.4% +0.3 18
2020-01-04 @ Alloa Athletic D 1-1 1462 1385 40.4% 27.1% 32.5% -0.3 22
2020-01-11 Dundee United L 1-4 1462 1639 21.3% 25.1% 53.6% -10.2 22
2020-01-11 @ Partick Thistle W 4-1 1639 1462 53.6% 25.1% 21.3% +10.2 52
2020-01-11 Dunfermline Athletic W 3-2 1442 1493 36.0% 27.3% 36.7% +6.2 25
2020-01-11 @ Greenock Morton L 2-3 1493 1442 36.7% 27.3% 36.0% -6.2 25
2020-01-21 Arbroath W 2-0 1386 1516 26.0% 26.3% 47.7% +15.9 21
2020-01-21 @ Alloa Athletic L 0-2 1516 1386 47.7% 26.3% 26.0% -15.9 25
2020-01-24 Dundee W 2-0 1487 1496 42.1% 27.0% 30.9% +11.5 28
2020-01-24 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-2 1496 1487 30.9% 27.0% 42.1% -11.5 29
2020-01-25 Alloa Athletic L 2-3 1483 1401 53.9% 25.0% 21.1% -8.3 25
2020-01-25 @ Queen Of The South W 3-2 1401 1483 21.1% 25.0% 53.9% +8.3 24
2020-01-25 Greenock Morton D 1-1 1650 1448 67.0% 20.1% 12.9% -2.2 53
2020-01-25 @ Dundee United D 1-1 1448 1650 12.9% 20.1% 67.0% +2.2 26
2020-01-25 Inverness CT W 1-0 1500 1564 34.3% 27.2% 38.5% +7.2 34
2020-01-25 @ Ayr United L 0-1 1564 1500 38.5% 27.2% 34.3% -7.1 35
2020-01-25 Partick Thistle W 2-1 1500 1451 49.7% 26.0% 24.3% +4.7 28
2020-01-25 @ Arbroath L 1-2 1451 1500 24.3% 26.0% 49.7% -4.7 22
2020-01-31 Ayr United D 1-1 1447 1507 34.7% 27.2% 38.1% +0.1 23
2020-01-31 @ Partick Thistle D 1-1 1507 1447 38.1% 27.2% 34.7% -0.1 35
2020-02-01 Alloa Athletic D 1-1 1557 1410 61.3% 22.5% 16.2% -1.8 36
2020-02-01 @ Inverness CT D 1-1 1410 1557 16.2% 22.5% 61.3% +1.8 25
2020-02-01 Arbroath L 0-1 1647 1505 60.8% 22.7% 16.4% -10.3 53
2020-02-01 @ Dundee United W 1-0 1505 1647 16.4% 22.7% 60.8% +10.3 31
2020-02-01 Dundee D 1-1 1450 1484 38.5% 27.2% 34.2% -0.1 27
2020-02-01 @ Greenock Morton D 1-1 1484 1450 34.2% 27.2% 38.5% +0.2 30
2020-02-01 Dunfermline Athletic L 2-3 1475 1498 40.0% 27.2% 32.8% -6.6 25
2020-02-01 @ Queen Of The South W 3-2 1498 1475 32.8% 27.2% 40.0% +6.6 31
2020-02-08 Partick Thistle W 2-0 1484 1447 48.3% 26.2% 25.5% +9.8 33
2020-02-08 @ Dundee L 0-2 1447 1484 25.5% 26.2% 48.3% -9.8 23
2020-02-08 Queen Of The South D 2-2 1450 1468 40.7% 27.1% 32.1% -0.2 28
2020-02-08 @ Greenock Morton D 2-2 1468 1450 32.1% 27.1% 40.7% +0.2 26
2020-02-14 Dundee United D 0-0 1412 1637 17.5% 23.3% 59.2% +1.9 26
2020-02-14 @ Alloa Athletic D 0-0 1637 1412 59.2% 23.3% 17.5% -1.9 54
2020-02-15 Queen Of The South W 2-0 1515 1469 49.5% 26.0% 24.5% +9.5 34
2020-02-15 @ Arbroath L 0-2 1469 1515 24.5% 26.0% 49.5% -9.5 26
2020-02-21 Inverness CT W 2-1 1635 1555 53.7% 25.0% 21.3% +4.2 57
2020-02-21 @ Dundee United L 1-2 1555 1635 21.3% 25.0% 53.7% -4.2 36
2020-02-22 Alloa Athletic D 4-4 1450 1413 48.1% 26.3% 25.6% -0.5 29
2020-02-22 @ Greenock Morton D 4-4 1413 1450 25.6% 26.3% 48.1% +0.5 27
2020-02-22 Dundee L 0-1 1459 1494 38.4% 27.2% 34.4% -7.1 26
2020-02-22 @ Queen Of The South W 1-0 1494 1459 34.4% 27.2% 38.4% +7.1 36
2020-02-25 Greenock Morton L 1-2 1507 1450 50.9% 25.7% 23.4% -8.4 35
2020-02-25 @ Ayr United W 2-1 1450 1507 23.4% 25.7% 50.9% +8.4 32
2020-02-25 Inverness CT L 1-2 1505 1551 36.8% 27.3% 35.9% -6.5 31
2020-02-25 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-1 1551 1505 35.9% 27.3% 36.8% +6.5 39
2020-02-29 Ayr United L 0-2 1414 1499 31.4% 27.1% 41.5% -11.6 27
2020-02-29 @ Alloa Athletic W 2-0 1499 1414 41.5% 27.1% 31.4% +11.6 38
2020-02-29 Dundee United W 2-0 1498 1639 24.9% 26.1% 49.0% +16.3 34
2020-02-29 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-2 1639 1498 49.0% 26.1% 24.9% -16.3 57
2020-02-29 Greenock Morton L 0-4 1452 1458 42.4% 27.0% 30.6% -27.6 26
2020-02-29 @ Queen Of The South W 4-0 1458 1452 30.6% 27.0% 42.4% +27.6 35
2020-03-03 Alloa Athletic D 0-0 1501 1402 55.9% 24.4% 19.7% -1.6 37
2020-03-03 @ Dundee D 0-0 1402 1501 19.7% 24.4% 55.9% +1.6 28
2020-03-03 Dundee United D 0-0 1510 1623 28.0% 26.7% 45.3% +0.7 39
2020-03-03 @ Ayr United D 0-0 1623 1510 45.3% 26.7% 28.0% -0.7 58
2020-03-03 Greenock Morton W 3-2 1557 1485 52.6% 25.3% 22.1% +4.1 42
2020-03-03 @ Inverness CT L 2-3 1485 1557 22.1% 25.3% 52.6% -4.1 35
2020-03-03 Queen Of The South D 0-0 1437 1424 45.0% 26.7% 28.3% -0.7 24
2020-03-03 @ Partick Thistle D 0-0 1424 1437 28.3% 26.7% 45.0% +0.7 27
2020-03-04 Dunfermline Athletic D 0-0 1525 1515 44.6% 26.8% 28.6% -0.7 35
2020-03-04 @ Arbroath D 0-0 1515 1525 28.6% 26.8% 44.6% +0.7 35
2020-03-07 Arbroath D 1-1 1481 1524 37.3% 27.2% 35.5% -0.1 36
2020-03-07 @ Greenock Morton D 1-1 1524 1481 35.5% 27.2% 37.3% +0.1 36
2020-03-07 Dundee D 0-0 1511 1500 44.8% 26.8% 28.4% -0.7 40
2020-03-07 @ Ayr United D 0-0 1500 1511 28.4% 26.8% 44.8% +0.7 38
2020-03-07 Inverness CT W 2-0 1404 1561 23.2% 25.7% 51.1% +16.9 31
2020-03-07 @ Alloa Athletic L 0-2 1561 1404 51.1% 25.7% 23.2% -16.9 42
2020-03-07 Partick Thistle D 1-1 1622 1436 65.5% 20.8% 13.8% -2.1 59
2020-03-07 @ Dundee United D 1-1 1436 1622 13.8% 20.8% 65.5% +2.1 25
2020-03-07 Queen Of The South D 1-1 1515 1425 54.9% 24.7% 20.4% -1.4 36
2020-03-07 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-1 1425 1515 20.4% 24.7% 54.9% +1.3 28
2020-03-10 Ayr United W 2-0 1500 1510 41.9% 27.0% 31.1% +11.5 41
2020-03-10 @ Dundee L 0-2 1510 1500 31.1% 27.0% 41.9% -11.5 40
2020-03-10 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-1 1438 1514 32.7% 27.2% 40.2% +0.3 26
2020-03-10 @ Partick Thistle D 1-1 1514 1438 40.2% 27.2% 32.7% -0.3 37
2020-03-10 Queen Of The South W 3-1 1544 1426 58.1% 23.7% 18.2% +6.2 45
2020-03-10 @ Inverness CT L 1-3 1426 1544 18.2% 23.7% 58.1% -6.2 28

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2019-12-28 15.95% Alloa Athletic 1368 3 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1518 1
2 2020-02-01 16.45% Arbroath 1505 1 @ Dundee United 1647 0
3 2019-09-28 17.95% Partick Thistle 1455 3 @ Inverness CT 1577 1
4 2019-10-04 19.88% @ Alloa Athletic 1396 1 Dundee United 1590 0
5 2020-01-04 20.26% Greenock Morton 1433 2 @ Arbroath 1525 1
6 2020-01-25 21.15% Alloa Athletic 1401 3 @ Queen Of The South 1483 2
7 2020-03-07 23.21% @ Alloa Athletic 1404 2 Inverness CT 1561 0
8 2020-02-25 23.41% Greenock Morton 1450 2 @ Ayr United 1507 1
9 2019-08-31 23.49% Alloa Athletic 1403 1 @ Queen Of The South 1460 0
10 2020-02-29 24.88% @ Dunfermline Athletic 1498 2 Dundee United 1639 0
11 2019-10-25 24.91% Dundee 1490 2 @ Ayr United 1533 1
12 2019-12-28 24.93% Arbroath 1516 1 @ Inverness CT 1559 0
13 2019-10-19 25.17% Partick Thistle 1463 3 @ Dundee 1504 1
14 2019-10-26 25.37% @ Greenock Morton 1437 2 Inverness CT 1573 1
15 2019-12-07 25.81% Partick Thistle 1441 2 @ Queen Of The South 1475 1
16 2019-11-30 25.86% Queen Of The South 1467 2 @ Dundee 1501 1
17 2020-01-21 25.98% @ Alloa Athletic 1386 2 Arbroath 1516 0
18 2019-11-09 26.60% @ Alloa Athletic 1387 2 Dunfermline Athletic 1512 1
19 2019-09-28 26.72% Ayr United 1531 3 @ Arbroath 1557 0
20 2019-10-19 26.83% @ Queen Of The South 1458 4 Dundee United 1581 0
21 2019-10-05 27.20% Queen Of The South 1450 1 @ Partick Thistle 1472 0
22 2019-12-28 27.51% Queen Of The South 1481 2 @ Ayr United 1500 1
23 2019-11-16 27.74% @ Greenock Morton 1430 1 Arbroath 1545 0
24 2019-12-14 27.92% @ Partick Thistle 1449 3 Inverness CT 1562 1
25 2019-11-02 28.30% Dundee United 1565 3 @ Inverness CT 1577 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-10-19 29.72 @ Queen Of The South 4 1458 26.83% Dundee United 0 1581 46.68% 26.50%
2 2020-02-29 27.58 Greenock Morton 4 1458 30.56% @ Queen Of The South 0 1452 42.45% 26.99%
3 2019-09-28 22.80 Ayr United 3 1531 26.72% @ Arbroath 0 1557 46.80% 26.48%
4 2019-11-02 22.09 Dundee United 3 1565 28.30% @ Inverness CT 0 1577 44.97% 26.73%
5 2019-09-21 21.68 Dunfermline Athletic 3 1472 29.25% @ Partick Thistle 0 1477 43.90% 26.85%
6 2019-08-30 21.16 @ Inverness CT 5 1542 51.05% Greenock Morton 0 1483 23.27% 25.68%
7 2019-09-28 20.80 @ Dundee United 6 1570 56.88% Greenock Morton 0 1462 19.02% 24.10%
8 2019-11-09 17.66 @ Arbroath 3 1527 39.40% Inverness CT 0 1555 33.41% 27.19%
9 2019-12-28 17.01 Alloa Athletic 3 1368 15.95% @ Dunfermline Athletic 1 1518 61.66% 22.39%
10 2020-03-07 16.87 @ Alloa Athletic 2 1404 23.21% Inverness CT 0 1561 51.13% 25.66%
11 2019-10-29 16.55 Dundee 3 1498 42.29% @ Alloa Athletic 0 1407 30.71% 27.01%
12 2019-09-28 16.30 Partick Thistle 3 1455 17.95% @ Inverness CT 1 1577 58.48% 23.57%
13 2020-02-29 16.30 @ Dunfermline Athletic 2 1498 24.88% Dundee United 0 1639 49.02% 26.10%
14 2020-01-21 15.94 @ Alloa Athletic 2 1386 25.98% Arbroath 0 1516 47.69% 26.33%
15 2019-11-30 14.85 @ Dunfermline Athletic 5 1505 49.78% Partick Thistle 1 1456 24.27% 25.95%
16 2019-10-05 14.50 Inverness CT 2 1560 30.69% @ Ayr United 0 1553 42.30% 27.01%
17 2019-08-03 14.44 @ Dundee United 4 1532 40.79% Inverness CT 1 1550 32.09% 27.12%
18 2019-12-21 14.18 @ Dundee United 4 1622 56.93% Ayr United 0 1514 18.98% 24.09%
19 2019-10-19 14.03 Partick Thistle 3 1463 25.17% @ Dundee 1 1504 48.67% 26.16%
20 2019-09-14 13.90 @ Ayr United 2 1504 32.82% Dundee United 0 1578 40.02% 27.16%
21 2019-12-21 13.47 @ Queen Of The South 2 1467 34.40% Arbroath 0 1530 38.38% 27.22%
22 2019-12-14 13.27 @ Partick Thistle 3 1449 27.92% Inverness CT 1 1562 45.41% 26.67%
23 2020-01-04 13.20 Inverness CT 2 1551 35.38% @ Dundee 0 1509 37.37% 27.24%
24 2019-09-21 13.10 Ayr United 4 1517 44.90% @ Alloa Athletic 1 1408 28.36% 26.74%
25 2019-12-21 13.06 Greenock Morton 2 1427 35.94% @ Alloa Athletic 0 1381 36.81% 27.25%