2017-18 Championship Season

180 games

Final

Promoted

—

No promotions.

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

St. Mirren

11.72 points above expected

74 points · 62.28 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Brechin City

24.10 points below expected

4 points · 28.10 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	St. Mirren	36	23	5	8	74	63	36	+27	62.28	+11.72
2	Livingston	36	17	11	8	62	56	37	+19	52.68	+9.32
3	Dundee United	36	18	7	11	61	52	42	+10	54.60	+6.40
4	Dunfermline Athletic	36	16	11	9	59	60	35	+25	59.27	-0.27
5	Inverness CT	36	16	9	11	57	53	37	+16	54.12	+2.88
6	Queen Of The South	36	14	10	12	52	59	53	+6	48.06	+3.94
7	Greenock Morton	36	13	11	12	50	47	40	+7	52.66	-2.66
8	Falkirk	36	12	11	13	47	45	49	-4	49.05	-2.05
9	Dumbarton	36	7	9	20	30	27	63	-36	34.49	-4.49
10	Brechin City	36	0	4	32	4	20	90	-70	28.10	-24.10

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
St. Mirren	1487	74	62.28	+11.72	94.8%	34	50	57	62	67	75	93
Inverness CT	1474	57	54.12	+2.88	66.7%	23	41	49	54	59	67	81
Dunfermline Athletic	1465	59	59.27	-0.27	50.3%	29	46	54	59	65	72	90
Livingston	1434	62	52.68	+9.32	90.1%	23	40	47	53	58	65	83
Falkirk	1397	47	49.05	-2.05	42.2%	22	37	44	49	54	62	78
Dundee United	1389	61	54.60	+6.40	81.3%	29	42	50	54	60	67	88
Queen Of The South	1372	52	48.06	+3.94	72.0%	24	36	43	48	53	61	78
Greenock Morton	1364	50	52.66	-2.66	38.7%	26	40	48	53	58	65	85
Dumbarton	1171	30	34.49	-4.49	29.1%	9	23	30	34	39	46	60
Brechin City	1044	4	28.10	-24.10	0.0%	7	18	24	28	32	39	53

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BC	DUM	DU	DA	FAL	GM	IC	LIV	QOTS	SM
Brechin City	—	0-0-4 4.72	0-1-3 2.74	0-0-4 2.33	0-1-3 3.00	0-1-3 2.92	0-0-4 3.25	0-1-3 3.47	0-0-4 3.59	0-0-4 2.16
Dumbarton	4-0-0 6.25	—	1-1-2 3.53	0-1-3 3.01	0-3-1 3.86	0-2-2 3.71	1-0-3 3.32	0-0-4 3.67	0-2-2 4.11	1-0-3 2.86
Dundee United	3-1-0 8.36	2-1-1 7.49	—	2-2-0 4.74	2-1-1 6.37	2-1-1 5.60	1-1-2 5.61	2-0-2 5.35	2-0-2 6.18	2-0-2 4.94
Dunfermline Athletic	4-0-0 8.83	3-1-0 8.06	0-2-2 6.23	—	3-1-0 6.45	0-2-2 6.30	2-1-1 5.88	2-2-0 5.92	1-2-1 6.73	1-0-3 4.91
Falkirk	3-1-0 8.08	1-3-0 7.15	1-1-2 4.61	0-1-3 4.52	—	3-0-1 4.78	1-1-2 4.92	0-2-2 4.90	1-1-2 5.61	2-1-1 4.55
Greenock Morton	3-1-0 8.17	2-2-0 7.31	1-1-2 5.37	2-2-0 4.68	1-0-3 6.19	—	2-1-1 5.20	0-1-3 5.39	1-1-2 5.97	1-2-1 4.31
Inverness CT	4-0-0 7.82	3-0-1 7.73	2-1-1 5.35	1-1-2 5.08	2-1-1 6.05	1-1-2 5.75	—	1-2-1 5.80	2-2-0 6.03	0-1-3 4.50
Livingston	3-1-0 7.64	4-0-0 7.34	2-0-2 5.63	0-2-2 5.05	2-2-0 6.08	3-1-0 5.58	1-2-1 5.17	—	1-2-1 5.63	1-1-2 4.52
Queen Of The South	4-0-0 7.46	2-2-0 6.87	2-0-2 4.78	1-2-1 4.25	2-1-1 5.36	2-1-1 5.00	0-2-2 4.94	1-2-1 5.34	—	0-0-4 4.05
St. Mirren	4-0-0 9.04	3-0-1 8.23	2-0-2 6.04	3-0-1 6.06	1-1-2 6.44	1-2-1 6.67	3-1-0 6.48	2-1-1 6.45	4-0-0 6.94	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.89	+13.0
Allowed	0.90	-10.9
Differential	0.95	+6.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	10.00%	9.44%	5.28%	3.89%	1.67%	0.56%	30.83%
1	9.44%	9.44%	5.00%	5.00%	2.22%	1.11%	32.22%
2	5.28%	5.00%	4.44%	2.50%	0.56%	0.56%	18.33%
3	3.89%	5.00%	2.50%	0.56%	—	—	11.94%
4	1.67%	2.22%	0.56%	—	—	—	4.44%
5+	0.56%	1.11%	0.56%	—	—	—	2.22%
Total	30.83%	32.22%	18.33%	11.94%	4.44%	2.22%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.34	1.34	+0.00
SD	1.28	1.28	1.91
CV	0.96	0.96	—
Max	6	6	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	22.22%	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	2.78%	52.78%
1	—	8.33%	11.11%	8.33%	8.33%	2.78%	38.89%
2	—	—	2.78%	5.56%	—	—	8.33%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	30.56%	19.44%	25.00%	19.44%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.56	2.50	-1.94
SD	0.65	1.28	1.37
CV	1.17	0.51	—
Max	2	5	+0
Min	0	1	-5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	16.67%	13.89%	2.78%	5.56%	2.78%	52.78%
1	8.33%	8.33%	2.78%	—	2.78%	2.78%	25.00%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	2.78%	—	2.78%	16.67%
3	—	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	19.44%	33.33%	25.00%	5.56%	8.33%	8.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.75	1.75	-1.00
SD	0.94	1.50	1.71
CV	1.25	0.86	—
Max	3	5	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	2.78%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	25.00%
1	11.11%	13.89%	2.78%	—	—	2.78%	30.56%
2	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	36.11%	36.11%	11.11%	13.89%	—	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.44	1.17	+0.28
SD	1.23	1.32	2.06
CV	0.85	1.13	—
Max	5	6	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.89%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	—	22.22%
1	8.33%	11.11%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	30.56%
2	2.78%	5.56%	5.56%	2.78%	—	2.78%	19.44%
3	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	41.67%	33.33%	16.67%	5.56%	—	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.67	0.97	+0.69
SD	1.37	1.13	1.83
CV	0.82	1.17	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	19.44%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	36.11%
1	11.11%	8.33%	2.78%	8.33%	5.56%	—	36.11%
2	—	2.78%	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	8.33%
3	2.78%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	—	13.89%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	33.33%	27.78%	16.67%	13.89%	8.33%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.25	1.36	-0.11
SD	1.46	1.31	1.88
CV	1.17	0.96	—
Max	6	4	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	13.89%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	25.00%
1	8.33%	22.22%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	41.67%
2	5.56%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	47.22%	19.44%	8.33%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.31	1.11	+0.19
SD	1.14	0.89	1.47
CV	0.87	0.80	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
1	16.67%	8.33%	2.78%	5.56%	—	2.78%	36.11%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	2.78%	—	13.89%
3	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	8.33%
4	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	44.44%	27.78%	16.67%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.47	1.03	+0.44
SD	1.42	1.25	1.96
CV	0.97	1.22	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.89%	8.33%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	27.78%
1	5.56%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	22.22%
2	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	8.33%	5.56%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	22.22%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	38.89%	33.33%	13.89%	13.89%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	1.03	+0.53
SD	1.27	1.06	1.63
CV	0.82	1.03	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.89%	—	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	22.22%
1	13.89%	2.78%	5.56%	13.89%	—	—	36.11%
2	—	2.78%	8.33%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	—	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	30.56%	16.67%	27.78%	25.00%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	1.47	+0.17
SD	1.46	1.18	1.75
CV	0.89	0.80	—
Max	5	3	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	8.33%	—	2.78%	—	—	16.67%
1	11.11%	2.78%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	25.00%
2	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	33.33%
3	2.78%	13.89%	2.78%	—	—	—	19.44%
4	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	38.89%	36.11%	16.67%	2.78%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.75	1.00	+0.75
SD	1.20	1.10	1.71
CV	0.69	1.10	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	St. Mirren	74	62.28	+11.72
2	Livingston	62	52.68	+9.32
3	Dundee United	61	54.60	+6.40
4	Queen Of The South	52	48.06	+3.94
5	Inverness CT	57	54.12	+2.88

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Brechin City	4	28.10	-24.10
2	Dumbarton	30	34.49	-4.49
3	Greenock Morton	50	52.66	-2.66
4	Falkirk	47	49.05	-2.05
5	Dunfermline Athletic	59	59.27	-0.27

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Livingston	4	Sep 16 – Oct 14	1 in 104
2	Falkirk	3	Apr 17 – Apr 28	1 in 40
3	St. Mirren	4	Dec 9 – Dec 29	1 in 22
4	Dunfermline Athletic	4	Mar 31 – Apr 14	1 in 19
5	Inverness CT	5	Apr 3 – Apr 18	1 in 19

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Brechin City	16	Jan 13 – Apr 28	1 in 753
2	Inverness CT	3	Sep 9 – Sep 23	1 in 37
3	Dunfermline Athletic	3	Dec 2 – Dec 16	1 in 28
4	Greenock Morton	3	Apr 14 – Apr 28	1 in 20
5	Falkirk	3	Apr 7 – Apr 14	1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Inverness CT	11	Mar 17 – Apr 28	1 in 72
2	Livingston	11	Jan 13 – Mar 31	1 in 42
3	Dunfermline Athletic	10	Mar 13 – Apr 28	1 in 25
4	Dumbarton	4	Nov 4 – Dec 2	1 in 20
5	St. Mirren	9	Dec 9 – Feb 3	1 in 15

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Brechin City	36	Aug 5 – Apr 28	1 in 2,096
2	Dunfermline Athletic	7	Oct 28 – Dec 16	1 in 99
3	Falkirk	8	Oct 14 – Dec 23	1 in 22
4	Inverness CT	5	Sep 9 – Oct 14	1 in 14
5	Dumbarton	10	Dec 16 – Mar 10	1 in 13

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
St. Mirren	40.47%	22.68%	14.59%	9.23%	5.86%	3.78%	2.30%	0.90%	0.19%	—
Livingston	6.32%	10.16%	13.18%	14.84%	14.34%	15.14%	13.17%	10.08%	2.57%	0.20%
Dundee United	9.53%	13.03%	15.10%	14.55%	14.73%	13.16%	11.23%	6.94%	1.58%	0.15%
Dunfermline Athletic	24.89%	22.61%	16.06%	12.39%	9.73%	6.81%	4.78%	2.32%	0.35%	0.06%
Inverness CT	8.93%	12.71%	14.40%	15.22%	14.29%	13.09%	11.16%	8.15%	1.89%	0.16%
Queen Of The South	1.87%	4.16%	6.35%	9.35%	11.83%	15.10%	18.98%	23.41%	7.81%	1.14%
Greenock Morton	5.57%	9.75%	12.83%	14.27%	15.28%	15.52%	13.51%	10.20%	2.73%	0.34%
Falkirk	2.42%	4.85%	7.30%	9.73%	12.91%	15.43%	19.37%	21.43%	5.84%	0.72%
Dumbarton	—	0.05%	0.18%	0.38%	0.95%	1.79%	4.75%	12.75%	54.71%	24.44%
Brechin City	—	—	0.01%	0.04%	0.08%	0.18%	0.75%	3.82%	22.33%	72.79%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+10.00%

Slight Edge

42.78%24.44%32.78%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 34.86 Elo pts.

145 Elo

0.007 goals per Elo point

0400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.22 goals

Neutral

-2+0.24+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

4.0

Top-Heavy

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

40%

St. Mirren, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.33/gm

Tight Race

00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.97 * Some Luck: 5.97 to 8.95 * Lucky: 8.95 to 11.94 * Wild Swing: 11.94 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.23 * Close: 1.23 to 1.84 * Off: 1.84 to 2.45 * Way Off: 2.45 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

9.49 points

Lucky

07.4619

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.00

Pinpoint

01.534

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

94.79%

St. Mirren

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

0.00%

Brechin City

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.19

Top-Heavy

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

2.19

Strong Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

63%

Slight Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 94%

93%

Dominant

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

58%

Very Frequent

0%57%100%

Blowouts

Expected

20%

Frequent

0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.59

Predictable

00.612

Matchup Imbalance

0.31

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.93

Chaotic

01.002

Repeatability

0.04

Weak Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

26%

As Expected

0%26%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

22%

As Expected

0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.

Probability calibration

0.51

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.20

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.082

Well Within Noise

00.1300.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Direct promotion	Qualified for promotion playoff	Same level	Direct relegation
St. Mirren	40.47%	46.50%	13.03%	—
Dunfermline Athletic	24.89%	51.06%	23.99%	0.06%
Dundee United	9.53%	42.68%	47.64%	0.15%
Inverness CT	8.93%	42.33%	48.58%	0.16%
Livingston	6.32%	38.18%	55.30%	0.20%
Greenock Morton	5.57%	36.85%	57.24%	0.34%
Falkirk	2.42%	21.88%	74.98%	0.72%
Queen Of The South	1.87%	19.86%	77.13%	1.14%
Dumbarton	—	0.61%	74.95%	24.44%
Brechin City	—	0.05%	27.16%	72.79%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
2017-08-05	Brechin City	W 4-1	1323	1349	36.4%	26.1%	37.6%	+24.5	3
2017-08-05	@ Queen Of The South	L 1-4	1349	1323	37.6%	26.1%	36.4%	-24.5	0
2017-08-05	Dundee United	L 0-1	1411	1390	42.9%	25.9%	31.2%	-11.8	0
2017-08-05	@ Inverness CT	W 1-0	1390	1411	31.2%	25.9%	42.9%	+11.8	3
2017-08-05	Dunfermline Athletic	D 1-1	1300	1376	29.6%	25.8%	44.6%	+0.8	1
2017-08-05	@ Livingston	D 1-1	1376	1300	44.6%	25.8%	29.6%	-0.8	1
2017-08-05	Falkirk	W 3-1	1365	1442	29.5%	25.8%	44.7%	+19.9	3
2017-08-05	@ St. Mirren	L 1-3	1442	1365	44.7%	25.8%	29.5%	-19.9	0
2017-08-05	Greenock Morton	D 0-0	1300	1340	34.4%	26.0%	39.6%	+0.3	1
2017-08-05	@ Dumbarton	D 0-0	1340	1300	39.6%	26.0%	34.4%	-0.3	1
2017-08-12	Dumbarton	D 1-1	1422	1301	55.4%	24.5%	20.1%	-2.1	1
2017-08-12	@ Falkirk	D 1-1	1301	1422	20.1%	24.5%	55.4%	+2.1	2
2017-08-12	Inverness CT	W 5-1	1375	1400	36.5%	26.1%	37.4%	+31.6	4
2017-08-12	@ Dunfermline Athletic	L 1-5	1400	1375	37.4%	26.1%	36.5%	-31.6	0
2017-08-12	Livingston	D 2-2	1324	1301	43.3%	25.9%	30.8%	-0.5	1
2017-08-12	@ Brechin City	D 2-2	1301	1324	30.8%	25.9%	43.3%	+0.5	2
2017-08-12	Queen Of The South	W 2-1	1402	1348	47.3%	25.6%	27.1%	+7.8	6
2017-08-12	@ Dundee United	L 1-2	1348	1402	27.1%	25.6%	47.3%	-7.8	3
2017-08-12	St. Mirren	W 4-1	1339	1385	33.6%	26.0%	40.4%	+25.9	4
2017-08-12	@ Greenock Morton	L 1-4	1385	1339	40.4%	26.0%	33.6%	-25.9	3
2017-08-19	Brechin City	W 1-0	1410	1324	51.3%	25.1%	23.6%	+7.3	9
2017-08-19	@ Dundee United	L 0-1	1324	1410	23.6%	25.1%	51.3%	-7.3	1
2017-08-19	Dumbarton	W 1-0	1340	1303	45.1%	25.8%	29.1%	+8.7	6
2017-08-19	@ Queen Of The South	L 0-1	1303	1340	29.1%	25.8%	45.1%	-8.7	2
2017-08-19	Falkirk	W 3-1	1407	1420	38.1%	26.1%	35.8%	+16.8	7
2017-08-19	@ Dunfermline Athletic	L 1-3	1420	1407	35.8%	26.1%	38.1%	-16.8	1
2017-08-19	Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1368	1365	40.4%	26.0%	33.6%	-0.4	1
2017-08-19	@ Inverness CT	D 1-1	1365	1368	33.6%	26.0%	40.4%	+0.4	5
2017-08-19	St. Mirren	L 1-3	1301	1359	32.0%	25.9%	42.1%	-15.4	2
2017-08-19	@ Livingston	W 3-1	1359	1301	42.1%	25.9%	32.0%	+15.4	6
2017-08-26	Dundee United	W 3-0	1374	1417	33.9%	26.0%	40.1%	+30.5	9
2017-08-26	@ St. Mirren	L 0-3	1417	1374	40.1%	26.0%	33.9%	-30.5	9
2017-08-26	Dunfermline Athletic	L 0-4	1294	1423	23.5%	25.1%	51.4%	-26.2	2
2017-08-26	@ Dumbarton	W 4-0	1423	1294	51.4%	25.1%	23.5%	+26.2	10
2017-08-26	Inverness CT	L 0-4	1316	1368	32.8%	26.0%	41.2%	-34.4	1
2017-08-26	@ Brechin City	W 4-0	1368	1316	41.2%	26.0%	32.8%	+34.3	4
2017-08-26	Livingston	L 0-1	1366	1286	50.5%	25.3%	24.2%	-13.5	5
2017-08-26	@ Greenock Morton	W 1-0	1286	1366	24.2%	25.3%	50.5%	+13.5	5
2017-08-26	Queen Of The South	L 1-4	1403	1349	47.3%	25.6%	27.1%	-29.5	1
2017-08-26	@ Falkirk	W 4-1	1349	1403	27.1%	25.6%	47.3%	+29.5	9
2017-09-09	Dumbarton	D 1-1	1387	1268	55.1%	24.5%	20.4%	-2.1	10
2017-09-09	@ Dundee United	D 1-1	1268	1387	20.4%	24.5%	55.1%	+2.1	3
2017-09-09	Dunfermline Athletic	W 3-2	1352	1450	27.0%	25.6%	47.4%	+11.4	8
2017-09-09	@ Greenock Morton	L 2-3	1450	1352	47.4%	25.6%	27.0%	-11.4	10
2017-09-09	Falkirk	D 1-1	1282	1374	27.7%	25.7%	46.6%	+1.1	2
2017-09-09	@ Brechin City	D 1-1	1374	1282	46.6%	25.7%	27.7%	-1.1	2
2017-09-09	Inverness CT	W 4-2	1405	1402	40.4%	26.0%	33.6%	+14.3	12
2017-09-09	@ St. Mirren	L 2-4	1402	1405	33.6%	26.0%	40.4%	-14.3	4
2017-09-09	Queen Of The South	D 2-2	1299	1378	29.2%	25.8%	45.0%	+0.7	6
2017-09-09	@ Livingston	D 2-2	1378	1299	45.0%	25.8%	29.2%	-0.7	10
2017-09-16	Brechin City	W 2-1	1270	1283	38.1%	26.1%	35.8%	+9.7	6
2017-09-16	@ Dumbarton	L 1-2	1283	1270	35.8%	26.1%	38.1%	-9.7	2
2017-09-16	Dundee United	D 0-0	1373	1385	38.3%	26.1%	35.6%	-0.2	3
2017-09-16	@ Falkirk	D 0-0	1385	1373	35.6%	26.1%	38.3%	+0.2	11
2017-09-16	Greenock Morton	L 1-2	1378	1364	41.9%	26.0%	32.1%	-10.9	10
2017-09-16	@ Queen Of The South	W 2-1	1364	1378	32.1%	26.0%	41.9%	+10.9	11
2017-09-16	Livingston	L 1-3	1388	1300	51.5%	25.1%	23.4%	-22.4	4
2017-09-16	@ Inverness CT	W 3-1	1300	1388	23.4%	25.1%	51.5%	+22.4	9
2017-09-16	St. Mirren	W 3-0	1438	1419	42.7%	25.9%	31.4%	+25.4	13
2017-09-16	@ Dunfermline Athletic	L 0-3	1419	1438	31.4%	25.9%	42.7%	-25.4	12
2017-09-23	Dunfermline Athletic	L 0-3	1273	1464	17.9%	23.9%	58.2%	-15.8	2
2017-09-23	@ Brechin City	W 3-0	1464	1273	58.2%	23.9%	17.9%	+15.8	16
2017-09-23	Greenock Morton	W 2-1	1385	1375	41.4%	26.0%	32.6%	+9.0	14
2017-09-23	@ Dundee United	L 1-2	1375	1385	32.6%	26.0%	41.4%	-9.0	11
2017-09-23	Inverness CT	W 2-1	1279	1365	28.4%	25.7%	45.9%	+11.7	9
2017-09-23	@ Dumbarton	L 1-2	1365	1279	45.9%	25.7%	28.4%	-11.7	4
2017-09-23	Livingston	L 0-2	1372	1322	46.8%	25.7%	27.6%	-23.8	3
2017-09-23	@ Falkirk	W 2-0	1322	1372	27.6%	25.7%	46.8%	+23.8	12
2017-09-24	Queen Of The South	W 3-1	1394	1367	43.7%	25.9%	30.4%	+14.8	15
2017-09-24	@ St. Mirren	L 1-3	1367	1394	30.4%	25.9%	43.7%	-14.8	10
2017-09-30	Brechin City	W 2-1	1408	1258	58.5%	23.8%	17.7%	+5.4	18
2017-09-30	@ St. Mirren	L 1-2	1258	1408	17.7%	23.8%	58.5%	-5.4	2
2017-09-30	Dumbarton	W 2-1	1346	1291	47.4%	25.6%	27.0%	+7.8	15
2017-09-30	@ Livingston	L 1-2	1291	1346	27.0%	25.6%	47.4%	-7.8	9
2017-09-30	Dundee United	L 1-3	1479	1394	51.2%	25.2%	23.6%	-22.3	16
2017-09-30	@ Dunfermline Athletic	W 3-1	1394	1479	23.6%	25.2%	51.2%	+22.3	17
2017-09-30	Falkirk	L 0-1	1366	1349	42.4%	25.9%	31.7%	-11.6	11
2017-09-30	@ Greenock Morton	W 1-0	1349	1366	31.7%	25.9%	42.4%	+11.6	6
2017-09-30	Queen Of The South	D 0-0	1354	1352	40.2%	26.0%	33.7%	-0.4	5
2017-09-30	@ Inverness CT	D 0-0	1352	1354	33.7%	26.0%	40.2%	+0.4	11
2017-10-14	Dundee United	W 2-0	1354	1416	31.4%	25.9%	42.7%	+22.1	18
2017-10-14	@ Livingston	L 0-2	1416	1354	42.7%	25.9%	31.4%	-22.1	17
2017-10-14	Dunfermline Athletic	D 0-0	1352	1457	26.2%	25.5%	48.3%	+1.4	12
2017-10-14	@ Queen Of The South	D 0-0	1457	1352	48.3%	25.5%	26.2%	-1.4	17
2017-10-14	Greenock Morton	L 0-1	1252	1354	26.5%	25.6%	47.9%	-8.1	2
2017-10-14	@ Brechin City	W 1-0	1354	1252	47.9%	25.6%	26.5%	+8.1	14
2017-10-14	Inverness CT	D 0-0	1360	1353	41.0%	26.0%	33.0%	-0.5	7
2017-10-14	@ Falkirk	D 0-0	1353	1360	33.0%	26.0%	41.0%	+0.5	6
2017-10-14	St. Mirren	L 0-2	1283	1414	23.4%	25.1%	51.5%	-13.8	9
2017-10-14	@ Dumbarton	W 2-0	1414	1283	51.5%	25.1%	23.4%	+13.8	21
2017-10-21	Dumbarton	D 1-1	1362	1270	52.0%	25.1%	22.9%	-1.7	15
2017-10-21	@ Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1270	1362	22.9%	25.1%	52.0%	+1.7	10
2017-10-21	Inverness CT	L 0-2	1394	1354	45.5%	25.8%	28.7%	-23.3	17
2017-10-21	@ Dundee United	W 2-0	1354	1394	28.7%	25.8%	45.5%	+23.3	9
2017-10-21	Livingston	W 3-1	1456	1376	50.5%	25.3%	24.2%	+12.3	20
2017-10-21	@ Dunfermline Athletic	L 1-3	1376	1456	24.2%	25.3%	50.5%	-12.3	18
2017-10-21	Queen Of The South	L 0-1	1244	1354	25.6%	25.4%	48.9%	-7.9	2
2017-10-21	@ Brechin City	W 1-0	1354	1244	48.9%	25.4%	25.6%	+7.9	15
2017-10-21	St. Mirren	D 0-0	1360	1428	30.6%	25.9%	43.5%	+0.8	8
2017-10-21	@ Falkirk	D 0-0	1428	1360	43.5%	25.9%	30.6%	-0.8	22
2017-10-28	Brechin City	W 3-2	1364	1236	56.0%	24.4%	19.6%	+5.6	21
2017-10-28	@ Livingston	L 2-3	1236	1364	19.6%	24.4%	56.0%	-5.6	2
2017-10-28	Dundee United	L 0-2	1271	1371	26.8%	25.6%	47.6%	-15.4	10
2017-10-28	@ Dumbarton	W 2-0	1371	1271	47.6%	25.6%	26.8%	+15.4	20
2017-10-28	Dunfermline Athletic	W 1-0	1377	1468	27.8%	25.7%	46.6%	+12.6	12
2017-10-28	@ Inverness CT	L 0-1	1468	1377	46.6%	25.7%	27.8%	-12.6	20
2017-10-28	Falkirk	W 4-2	1362	1361	40.2%	26.0%	33.8%	+14.3	18
2017-10-28	@ Queen Of The South	L 2-4	1361	1362	33.8%	26.0%	40.2%	-14.4	8
2017-10-28	Greenock Morton	D 2-2	1427	1360	48.9%	25.4%	25.7%	-1.0	23
2017-10-28	@ St. Mirren	D 2-2	1360	1427	25.7%	25.4%	48.9%	+1.0	16
2017-11-04	Dumbarton	L 0-1	1231	1256	36.4%	26.1%	37.5%	-10.4	2
2017-11-04	@ Brechin City	W 1-0	1256	1231	37.5%	26.1%	36.4%	+10.4	13
2017-11-04	Dunfermline Athletic	D 1-1	1346	1455	25.7%	25.4%	48.9%	+1.3	9
2017-11-04	@ Falkirk	D 1-1	1455	1346	48.9%	25.4%	25.7%	-1.3	21
2017-11-04	Inverness CT	D 0-0	1369	1390	37.1%	26.1%	36.8%	-0.0	22
2017-11-04	@ Livingston	D 0-0	1390	1369	36.8%	26.1%	37.1%	+0.0	13
2017-11-04	Queen Of The South	L 1-2	1361	1376	37.9%	26.1%	36.0%	-10.1	16
2017-11-04	@ Greenock Morton	W 2-1	1376	1361	36.0%	26.1%	37.9%	+10.1	21
2017-11-04	St. Mirren	W 2-1	1386	1426	34.4%	26.0%	39.6%	+10.4	23
2017-11-04	@ Dundee United	L 1-2	1426	1386	39.6%	26.0%	34.4%	-10.4	23
2017-11-19	Falkirk	W 3-0	1397	1348	46.6%	25.7%	27.7%	+23.0	26
2017-11-19	@ Dundee United	L 0-3	1348	1397	27.7%	25.7%	46.6%	-23.0	9
2017-11-21	Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1454	1351	53.3%	24.9%	21.9%	-1.9	22
2017-11-21	@ Dunfermline Athletic	D 1-1	1351	1454	21.9%	24.9%	53.3%	+1.9	17
2017-11-25	Dumbarton	D 2-2	1452	1266	62.0%	22.9%	15.1%	-2.2	23
2017-11-25	@ Dunfermline Athletic	D 2-2	1266	1452	15.1%	22.9%	62.0%	+2.2	14
2017-11-25	Dundee United	D 1-1	1220	1420	17.2%	23.7%	59.1%	+2.6	3
2017-11-25	@ Brechin City	D 1-1	1420	1220	59.1%	23.7%	17.2%	-2.5	27
2017-11-25	Greenock Morton	L 0-3	1325	1353	35.9%	26.1%	38.0%	-28.2	9
2017-11-25	@ Falkirk	W 3-0	1353	1325	38.0%	26.1%	35.9%	+28.2	20
2017-11-25	Livingston	L 0-3	1386	1369	42.3%	25.9%	31.7%	-31.9	21
2017-11-25	@ Queen Of The South	W 3-0	1369	1386	31.7%	25.9%	42.3%	+31.9	25
2017-11-25	St. Mirren	L 0-2	1390	1415	36.3%	26.1%	37.6%	-19.6	13
2017-11-25	@ Inverness CT	W 2-0	1415	1390	37.6%	26.1%	36.3%	+19.5	26
2017-11-28	Brechin City	W 4-0	1370	1223	58.1%	23.9%	17.9%	+20.7	16
2017-11-28	@ Inverness CT	L 0-4	1223	1370	17.9%	23.9%	58.1%	-20.7	3
2017-11-28	Livingston	W 3-1	1435	1401	44.6%	25.8%	29.6%	+14.5	29
2017-11-28	@ St. Mirren	L 1-3	1401	1435	29.6%	25.8%	44.6%	-14.5	25
2017-11-28	Queen Of The South	D 2-2	1268	1354	28.4%	25.7%	45.9%	+0.7	15
2017-11-28	@ Dumbarton	D 2-2	1354	1268	45.9%	25.7%	28.4%	-0.7	22
2017-12-02	Brechin City	W 4-1	1381	1202	61.4%	23.1%	15.6%	+11.6	23
2017-12-02	@ Greenock Morton	L 1-4	1202	1381	15.6%	23.1%	61.4%	-11.6	3
2017-12-02	Dumbarton	L 0-1	1449	1269	61.5%	23.1%	15.5%	-16.0	29
2017-12-02	@ St. Mirren	W 1-0	1269	1449	15.5%	23.1%	61.5%	+16.0	18
2017-12-02	Dunfermline Athletic	W 2-1	1417	1450	35.3%	26.1%	38.6%	+10.2	30
2017-12-02	@ Dundee United	L 1-2	1450	1417	38.6%	26.1%	35.3%	-10.2	23
2017-12-02	Inverness CT	D 0-0	1353	1391	34.7%	26.0%	39.2%	+0.3	23
2017-12-02	@ Queen Of The South	D 0-0	1391	1353	39.2%	26.0%	34.7%	-0.3	17
2017-12-09	Dundee United	L 0-2	1393	1427	35.1%	26.0%	38.8%	-19.1	23
2017-12-09	@ Greenock Morton	W 2-0	1427	1393	38.8%	26.0%	35.1%	+19.1	33
2017-12-09	Queen Of The South	L 2-5	1440	1354	51.3%	25.1%	23.6%	-27.3	23
2017-12-09	@ Dunfermline Athletic	W 5-2	1354	1440	23.6%	25.1%	51.3%	+27.3	26
2017-12-09	St. Mirren	L 1-2	1191	1433	14.2%	22.5%	63.3%	-4.3	3
2017-12-09	@ Brechin City	W 2-1	1433	1191	63.3%	22.5%	14.2%	+4.3	32
2017-12-16	Dumbarton	W 1-0	1390	1285	53.5%	24.8%	21.6%	+6.8	20
2017-12-16	@ Inverness CT	L 0-1	1285	1390	21.6%	24.8%	53.5%	-6.8	18
2017-12-16	Dunfermline Athletic	W 1-0	1438	1413	43.5%	25.9%	30.6%	+9.1	35
2017-12-16	@ St. Mirren	L 0-1	1413	1438	30.6%	25.9%	43.5%	-9.1	23
2017-12-19	Falkirk	D 0-0	1387	1296	51.8%	25.1%	23.1%	-1.9	26
2017-12-19	@ Livingston	D 0-0	1296	1387	23.1%	25.1%	51.8%	+1.9	10
2017-12-23	Brechin City	W 2-1	1403	1186	64.9%	22.0%	13.1%	+4.0	26
2017-12-23	@ Dunfermline Athletic	L 1-2	1186	1403	13.1%	22.0%	64.9%	-4.0	3
2017-12-23	Falkirk	D 0-0	1278	1298	37.2%	26.1%	36.8%	-0.0	19
2017-12-23	@ Dumbarton	D 0-0	1298	1278	36.8%	26.1%	37.2%	+0.0	11
2017-12-23	Inverness CT	W 1-0	1374	1397	36.7%	26.1%	37.3%	+10.6	26
2017-12-23	@ Greenock Morton	L 0-1	1397	1374	37.3%	26.1%	36.7%	-10.6	20
2017-12-23	Livingston	W 3-0	1446	1385	48.2%	25.5%	26.2%	+22.0	36
2017-12-23	@ Dundee United	L 0-3	1385	1446	26.2%	25.5%	48.2%	-22.0	26
2017-12-23	St. Mirren	L 2-3	1381	1447	30.9%	25.9%	43.2%	-8.2	26
2017-12-23	@ Queen Of The South	W 3-2	1447	1381	43.2%	25.9%	30.9%	+8.2	38
2017-12-26	Livingston	L 1-4	1278	1363	28.5%	25.7%	45.7%	-19.9	19
2017-12-26	@ Dumbarton	W 4-1	1363	1278	45.7%	25.7%	28.5%	+19.9	29
2017-12-29	Dundee United	W 2-0	1455	1468	38.1%	26.1%	35.8%	+19.3	41
2017-12-29	@ St. Mirren	L 0-2	1468	1455	35.8%	26.1%	38.1%	-19.3	36
2017-12-30	Inverness CT	L 2-3	1182	1387	16.8%	23.5%	59.6%	-4.9	3
2017-12-30	@ Brechin City	W 3-2	1387	1182	59.6%	23.5%	16.8%	+4.9	23
2017-12-30	Queen Of The South	W 3-2	1298	1373	29.8%	25.8%	44.4%	+10.8	14
2017-12-30	@ Falkirk	L 2-3	1373	1298	44.4%	25.8%	29.8%	-10.8	26
2018-01-02	Brechin City	W 4-1	1449	1177	69.5%	20.2%	10.3%	+7.6	39
2018-01-02	@ Dundee United	L 1-4	1177	1449	10.3%	20.2%	69.5%	-7.6	3
2018-01-02	Dumbarton	D 0-0	1362	1258	53.3%	24.9%	21.8%	-2.1	27
2018-01-02	@ Queen Of The South	D 0-0	1258	1362	21.8%	24.9%	53.3%	+2.1	20
2018-01-02	Falkirk	W 2-0	1407	1309	52.7%	24.9%	22.3%	+13.2	29
2018-01-02	@ Dunfermline Athletic	L 0-2	1309	1407	22.3%	24.9%	52.7%	-13.2	14
2018-01-02	Livingston	D 1-1	1392	1383	41.2%	26.0%	32.8%	-0.5	24
2018-01-02	@ Inverness CT	D 1-1	1383	1392	32.8%	26.0%	41.2%	+0.5	30
2018-01-02	St. Mirren	D 1-1	1384	1474	27.9%	25.7%	46.4%	+1.1	27
2018-01-02	@ Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1474	1384	46.4%	25.7%	27.9%	-1.1	42
2018-01-06	Dundee United	W 6-1	1296	1457	20.5%	24.6%	55.0%	+52.9	17
2018-01-06	@ Falkirk	L 1-6	1457	1296	55.0%	24.6%	20.5%	-52.9	39
2018-01-06	Dunfermline Athletic	L 0-1	1261	1421	20.5%	24.6%	54.9%	-6.5	20
2018-01-06	@ Dumbarton	W 1-0	1421	1261	54.9%	24.6%	20.5%	+6.5	32
2018-01-06	Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1170	1385	16.0%	23.3%	60.8%	+2.8	4
2018-01-06	@ Brechin City	D 1-1	1385	1170	60.8%	23.3%	16.0%	-2.8	28
2018-01-06	Inverness CT	W 1-0	1473	1391	50.8%	25.2%	24.0%	+7.5	45
2018-01-06	@ St. Mirren	L 0-1	1391	1473	24.0%	25.2%	50.8%	-7.5	24
2018-01-06	Queen Of The South	L 0-1	1383	1360	43.2%	25.9%	30.9%	-11.8	30
2018-01-06	@ Livingston	W 1-0	1360	1383	30.9%	25.9%	43.2%	+11.8	30
2018-01-09	Falkirk	W 4-1	1384	1349	44.8%	25.8%	29.4%	+20.4	27
2018-01-09	@ Inverness CT	L 1-4	1349	1384	29.4%	25.8%	44.8%	-20.4	17
2018-01-13	Dundee United	D 0-0	1427	1404	43.3%	25.9%	30.8%	-0.8	33
2018-01-13	@ Dunfermline Athletic	D 0-0	1404	1427	30.8%	25.9%	43.3%	+0.8	40
2018-01-13	Falkirk	L 0-1	1383	1328	47.3%	25.6%	27.1%	-12.8	28
2018-01-13	@ Greenock Morton	W 1-0	1328	1383	27.1%	25.6%	47.3%	+12.8	20
2018-01-13	Livingston	L 0-2	1173	1371	17.2%	23.7%	59.1%	-10.5	4
2018-01-13	@ Brechin City	W 2-0	1371	1173	59.1%	23.7%	17.2%	+10.5	33
2018-01-13	Queen Of The South	W 3-1	1404	1372	44.4%	25.8%	29.7%	+14.5	30
2018-01-13	@ Inverness CT	L 1-3	1372	1404	29.7%	25.8%	44.4%	-14.5	30
2018-01-13	St. Mirren	L 0-2	1254	1481	15.2%	22.9%	61.8%	-9.3	20
2018-01-13	@ Dumbarton	W 2-0	1481	1254	61.8%	22.9%	15.2%	+9.3	48
2018-01-26	St. Mirren	L 1-2	1426	1490	31.2%	25.9%	42.9%	-8.7	33
2018-01-26	@ Dunfermline Athletic	W 2-1	1490	1426	42.9%	25.9%	31.2%	+8.7	51
2018-01-27	Brechin City	W 3-1	1357	1162	62.9%	22.6%	14.5%	+7.7	33
2018-01-27	@ Queen Of The South	L 1-3	1162	1357	14.5%	22.6%	62.9%	-7.7	4
2018-01-27	Dumbarton	W 2-0	1382	1245	57.1%	24.1%	18.8%	+11.3	36
2018-01-27	@ Livingston	L 0-2	1245	1382	18.8%	24.1%	57.1%	-11.3	20
2018-01-27	Greenock Morton	L 0-3	1404	1370	44.7%	25.8%	29.5%	-33.3	40
2018-01-27	@ Dundee United	W 3-0	1370	1404	29.5%	25.8%	44.7%	+33.3	31
2018-01-27	Inverness CT	W 3-1	1341	1419	29.4%	25.8%	44.8%	+19.9	23
2018-01-27	@ Falkirk	L 1-3	1419	1341	44.8%	25.8%	29.4%	-19.9	30
2018-02-03	Dunfermline Athletic	W 2-1	1403	1418	38.0%	26.1%	36.0%	+9.7	34
2018-02-03	@ Greenock Morton	L 1-2	1418	1403	36.0%	26.1%	38.0%	-9.7	33
2018-02-03	Livingston	L 1-3	1361	1393	35.4%	26.1%	38.5%	-16.6	23
2018-02-03	@ Falkirk	W 3-1	1393	1361	38.5%	26.1%	35.4%	+16.6	39
2018-02-03	Queen Of The South	W 2-0	1499	1365	56.7%	24.2%	19.1%	+11.5	54
2018-02-03	@ St. Mirren	L 0-2	1365	1499	19.1%	24.2%	56.7%	-11.5	33
2018-02-06	Brechin City	W 3-1	1345	1154	62.4%	22.8%	14.8%	+7.8	26
2018-02-06	@ Falkirk	L 1-3	1154	1345	14.8%	22.8%	62.4%	-7.8	4
2018-02-10	Dunfermline Athletic	D 0-0	1410	1408	40.3%	26.0%	33.7%	-0.4	40
2018-02-10	@ Livingston	D 0-0	1408	1410	33.7%	26.0%	40.3%	+0.4	34
2018-02-17	Falkirk	L 0-1	1147	1352	16.7%	23.5%	59.8%	-5.4	4
2018-02-17	@ Brechin City	W 1-0	1352	1147	59.8%	23.5%	16.7%	+5.4	29
2018-02-17	Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1353	1413	31.7%	25.9%	42.4%	+0.6	34
2018-02-17	@ Queen Of The South	D 1-1	1413	1353	42.4%	25.9%	31.7%	-0.6	35
2018-02-17	St. Mirren	W 4-1	1409	1510	26.6%	25.6%	47.8%	+29.7	43
2018-02-17	@ Livingston	L 1-4	1510	1409	47.8%	25.6%	26.6%	-29.7	54
2018-02-20	Greenock Morton	L 0-1	1233	1412	18.9%	24.2%	57.0%	-6.0	20
2018-02-20	@ Dumbarton	W 1-0	1412	1233	57.0%	24.2%	18.9%	+6.0	38
2018-02-23	Dundee United	W 2-1	1439	1371	49.1%	25.4%	25.5%	+7.4	46
2018-02-23	@ Livingston	L 1-2	1371	1439	25.5%	25.4%	49.1%	-7.4	40
2018-02-24	Brechin City	W 1-0	1481	1141	74.5%	17.9%	7.6%	+2.3	57
2018-02-24	@ St. Mirren	L 0-1	1141	1481	7.6%	17.9%	74.5%	-2.3	4
2018-02-24	Dumbarton	D 0-0	1358	1227	56.4%	24.3%	19.4%	-2.5	30
2018-02-24	@ Falkirk	D 0-0	1227	1358	19.4%	24.3%	56.4%	+2.5	21
2018-02-24	Dunfermline Athletic	D 0-0	1354	1408	32.4%	26.0%	41.6%	+0.6	35
2018-02-24	@ Queen Of The South	D 0-0	1408	1354	41.6%	26.0%	32.4%	-0.6	35
2018-02-24	Greenock Morton	L 0-2	1399	1418	37.2%	26.1%	36.8%	-19.9	30
2018-02-24	@ Inverness CT	W 2-0	1418	1399	36.8%	26.1%	37.2%	+19.9	41
2018-02-27	Livingston	L 0-1	1438	1447	38.9%	26.0%	35.1%	-10.9	41
2018-02-27	@ Greenock Morton	W 1-0	1447	1438	35.1%	26.0%	38.9%	+10.9	49
2018-03-10	Dunfermline Athletic	W 2-0	1483	1408	49.9%	25.3%	24.7%	+14.4	60
2018-03-10	@ St. Mirren	L 0-2	1408	1483	24.7%	25.3%	49.9%	-14.5	35
2018-03-10	Greenock Morton	W 3-1	1355	1427	30.1%	25.9%	44.1%	+19.6	33
2018-03-10	@ Falkirk	L 1-3	1427	1355	44.1%	25.9%	30.1%	-19.6	41
2018-03-10	Queen Of The South	L 0-1	1230	1355	24.0%	25.2%	50.8%	-7.5	21
2018-03-10	@ Dumbarton	W 1-0	1355	1230	50.8%	25.2%	24.0%	+7.5	38
2018-03-13	Brechin City	W 1-0	1222	1139	51.0%	25.2%	23.8%	+7.4	24
2018-03-13	@ Dumbarton	L 0-1	1139	1222	23.8%	25.2%	51.0%	-7.4	4
2018-03-13	Dundee United	L 1-3	1362	1364	39.8%	26.0%	34.2%	-18.1	38
2018-03-13	@ Queen Of The South	W 3-1	1364	1362	34.2%	26.0%	39.8%	+18.1	43
2018-03-13	Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1457	1408	46.7%	25.7%	27.6%	-1.1	50
2018-03-13	@ Livingston	D 1-1	1408	1457	27.6%	25.7%	46.7%	+1.1	42
2018-03-13	Inverness CT	W 1-0	1393	1379	42.0%	25.9%	32.0%	+9.4	38
2018-03-13	@ Dunfermline Athletic	L 0-1	1379	1393	32.0%	25.9%	42.0%	-9.4	30
2018-03-17	Dumbarton	L 1-3	1131	1230	26.9%	25.6%	47.5%	-13.4	4
2018-03-17	@ Brechin City	W 3-1	1230	1131	47.5%	25.6%	26.9%	+13.4	27
2018-03-17	Falkirk	D 0-0	1456	1375	50.7%	25.2%	24.1%	-1.7	51
2018-03-17	@ Livingston	D 0-0	1375	1456	24.1%	25.2%	50.7%	+1.8	34
2018-03-17	Greenock Morton	D 0-0	1403	1409	39.2%	26.0%	34.8%	-0.3	39
2018-03-17	@ Dunfermline Athletic	D 0-0	1409	1403	34.8%	26.0%	39.2%	+0.3	43
2018-03-17	Inverness CT	D 1-1	1382	1369	41.8%	26.0%	32.3%	-0.5	44
2018-03-17	@ Dundee United	D 1-1	1369	1382	32.3%	26.0%	41.8%	+0.5	31
2018-03-17	St. Mirren	L 1-3	1344	1497	21.1%	24.7%	54.2%	-10.9	38
2018-03-17	@ Queen Of The South	W 3-1	1497	1344	54.2%	24.7%	21.1%	+10.9	63
2018-03-20	Dunfermline Athletic	L 0-3	1118	1403	11.8%	21.2%	67.0%	-10.4	4
2018-03-20	@ Brechin City	W 3-0	1403	1118	67.0%	21.2%	11.8%	+10.4	42
2018-03-20	Queen Of The South	L 2-3	1381	1333	46.6%	25.7%	27.8%	-11.2	44
2018-03-20	@ Dundee United	W 3-2	1333	1381	27.8%	25.7%	46.6%	+11.3	41
2018-03-24	Brechin City	W 2-0	1409	1108	71.8%	19.2%	9.0%	+5.3	46
2018-03-24	@ Greenock Morton	L 0-2	1108	1409	9.0%	19.2%	71.8%	-5.3	4
2018-03-24	Dunfermline Athletic	D 1-1	1370	1413	33.9%	26.0%	40.0%	+0.3	45
2018-03-24	@ Dundee United	D 1-1	1413	1370	40.0%	26.0%	33.9%	-0.3	43
2018-03-24	Livingston	D 3-3	1344	1455	25.6%	25.4%	49.0%	+0.8	42
2018-03-24	@ Queen Of The South	D 3-3	1455	1344	49.0%	25.4%	25.6%	-0.9	52
2018-03-27	Dumbarton	W 5-0	1508	1243	69.0%	20.5%	10.6%	+14.9	66
2018-03-27	@ St. Mirren	L 0-5	1243	1508	10.6%	20.5%	69.0%	-14.9	27
2018-03-27	Dundee United	W 1-0	1370	1370	39.9%	26.0%	34.0%	+9.9	34
2018-03-27	@ Inverness CT	L 0-1	1370	1370	34.0%	26.0%	39.9%	-9.9	45
2018-03-31	Brechin City	W 3-0	1377	1102	69.7%	20.2%	10.2%	+8.9	37
2018-03-31	@ Falkirk	L 0-3	1102	1377	10.2%	20.2%	69.7%	-8.9	4
2018-03-31	Dundee United	D 1-1	1415	1360	47.3%	25.6%	27.1%	-1.2	47
2018-03-31	@ Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1360	1415	27.1%	25.6%	47.3%	+1.2	46
2018-03-31	Livingston	L 0-3	1228	1454	15.3%	23.0%	61.7%	-13.6	27
2018-03-31	@ Dumbarton	W 3-0	1454	1228	61.7%	23.0%	15.3%	+13.6	55
2018-03-31	Queen Of The South	W 3-1	1413	1345	49.0%	25.4%	25.6%	+12.9	46
2018-03-31	@ Dunfermline Athletic	L 1-3	1345	1413	25.6%	25.4%	49.0%	-12.9	42
2018-03-31	St. Mirren	D 2-2	1380	1523	22.1%	24.9%	53.0%	+1.4	35
2018-03-31	@ Inverness CT	D 2-2	1523	1380	53.0%	24.9%	22.1%	-1.4	67
2018-04-03	Brechin City	W 4-0	1381	1093	70.7%	19.7%	9.6%	+10.9	38
2018-04-03	@ Inverness CT	L 0-4	1093	1381	9.6%	19.7%	70.7%	-10.9	4
2018-04-03	Dumbarton	W 2-0	1362	1215	58.1%	23.9%	18.0%	+10.9	49
2018-04-03	@ Dundee United	L 0-2	1215	1362	18.0%	23.9%	58.1%	-10.9	27
2018-04-03	Falkirk	D 2-2	1332	1386	32.5%	26.0%	41.5%	+0.4	43
2018-04-03	@ Queen Of The South	D 2-2	1386	1332	41.5%	26.0%	32.5%	-0.4	38
2018-04-03	Livingston	W 1-0	1425	1467	34.1%	26.0%	39.9%	+11.1	49
2018-04-03	@ Dunfermline Athletic	L 0-1	1467	1425	39.9%	26.0%	34.1%	-11.1	55
2018-04-07	Dundee United	W 3-2	1204	1373	19.7%	24.4%	55.9%	+13.2	30
2018-04-07	@ Dumbarton	L 2-3	1373	1204	55.9%	24.4%	19.7%	-13.2	49
2018-04-07	Dunfermline Athletic	L 1-2	1385	1437	32.8%	26.0%	41.2%	-9.0	38
2018-04-07	@ Falkirk	W 2-1	1437	1385	41.2%	26.0%	32.8%	+9.1	52
2018-04-07	Greenock Morton	W 3-2	1456	1413	45.9%	25.7%	28.4%	+7.7	58
2018-04-07	@ Livingston	L 2-3	1413	1456	28.4%	25.7%	45.9%	-7.7	47
2018-04-07	Inverness CT	L 0-2	1333	1392	31.7%	25.9%	42.3%	-17.6	43
2018-04-07	@ Queen Of The South	W 2-0	1392	1333	42.3%	25.9%	31.7%	+17.6	41
2018-04-07	St. Mirren	L 0-1	1083	1522	5.9%	15.9%	78.2%	-1.7	4
2018-04-07	@ Brechin City	W 1-0	1522	1083	78.2%	15.9%	5.9%	+1.7	70
2018-04-10	Dumbarton	W 3-2	1406	1217	62.3%	22.8%	14.9%	+4.3	50
2018-04-10	@ Greenock Morton	L 2-3	1217	1406	14.9%	22.8%	62.3%	-4.3	30
2018-04-10	Falkirk	W 1-0	1410	1376	44.6%	25.8%	29.6%	+8.9	44
2018-04-10	@ Inverness CT	L 0-1	1376	1410	29.6%	25.8%	44.6%	-8.9	38
2018-04-10	St. Mirren	W 1-0	1359	1524	20.1%	24.5%	55.4%	+14.6	52
2018-04-10	@ Dundee United	L 0-1	1524	1359	55.4%	24.5%	20.1%	-14.6	70
2018-04-14	Brechin City	W 4-0	1446	1081	76.2%	17.0%	6.8%	+7.3	55
2018-04-14	@ Dunfermline Athletic	L 0-4	1081	1446	6.8%	17.0%	76.2%	-7.3	4
2018-04-14	Dumbarton	W 5-1	1418	1213	63.9%	22.3%	13.8%	+13.3	47
2018-04-14	@ Inverness CT	L 1-5	1213	1418	13.8%	22.3%	63.9%	-13.3	30
2018-04-14	Falkirk	W 1-0	1374	1367	40.9%	26.0%	33.1%	+9.7	55
2018-04-14	@ Dundee United	L 0-1	1367	1374	33.1%	26.0%	40.9%	-9.7	38
2018-04-14	Livingston	D 0-0	1509	1464	46.1%	25.7%	28.2%	-1.2	71
2018-04-14	@ St. Mirren	D 0-0	1464	1509	28.2%	25.7%	46.1%	+1.1	59
2018-04-14	Queen Of The South	L 0-1	1410	1315	52.3%	25.0%	22.7%	-13.9	50
2018-04-14	@ Greenock Morton	W 1-0	1315	1410	22.7%	25.0%	52.3%	+13.9	46
2018-04-17	Dundee United	L 0-5	1074	1384	10.5%	20.4%	69.1%	-14.8	4
2018-04-17	@ Brechin City	W 5-0	1384	1074	69.1%	20.4%	10.5%	+14.8	58
2018-04-17	Falkirk	L 1-2	1508	1358	58.5%	23.8%	17.7%	-14.4	71
2018-04-17	@ St. Mirren	W 2-1	1358	1508	17.7%	23.8%	58.5%	+14.4	41
2018-04-18	Inverness CT	L 0-1	1199	1432	14.8%	22.8%	62.4%	-4.8	30
2018-04-18	@ Dumbarton	W 1-0	1432	1199	62.4%	22.8%	14.8%	+4.8	50
2018-04-21	Brechin City	W 3-0	1465	1059	78.8%	15.6%	5.6%	+4.5	62
2018-04-21	@ Livingston	L 0-3	1059	1465	5.6%	15.6%	78.8%	-4.5	4
2018-04-21	Dundee United	W 3-0	1329	1398	30.4%	25.9%	43.7%	+32.7	49
2018-04-21	@ Queen Of The South	L 0-3	1398	1329	43.7%	25.9%	30.4%	-32.7	58
2018-04-21	Dunfermline Athletic	D 2-2	1437	1453	37.7%	26.1%	36.3%	-0.1	51
2018-04-21	@ Inverness CT	D 2-2	1453	1437	36.3%	26.1%	37.7%	+0.1	56
2018-04-21	Falkirk	L 2-5	1195	1372	19.0%	24.2%	56.8%	-12.2	30
2018-04-21	@ Dumbarton	W 5-2	1372	1195	56.8%	24.2%	19.0%	+12.2	44
2018-04-21	Greenock Morton	W 2-1	1493	1396	52.6%	25.0%	22.4%	+6.6	74
2018-04-21	@ St. Mirren	L 1-2	1396	1493	22.4%	25.0%	52.6%	-6.6	50
2018-04-24	Inverness CT	L 0-1	1470	1437	44.5%	25.8%	29.6%	-12.1	62
2018-04-24	@ Livingston	W 1-0	1437	1470	29.6%	25.8%	44.5%	+12.1	54
2018-04-28	Dumbarton	W 4-0	1453	1182	69.4%	20.3%	10.3%	+11.8	59
2018-04-28	@ Dunfermline Athletic	L 0-4	1182	1453	10.3%	20.3%	69.4%	-11.8	30
2018-04-28	Inverness CT	L 0-3	1389	1449	31.8%	25.9%	42.3%	-25.6	50
2018-04-28	@ Greenock Morton	W 3-0	1449	1389	42.3%	25.9%	31.8%	+25.6	57
2018-04-28	Livingston	W 2-0	1366	1457	27.7%	25.7%	46.7%	+23.8	61
2018-04-28	@ Dundee United	L 0-2	1457	1366	46.7%	25.7%	27.7%	-23.8	62
2018-04-28	Queen Of The South	L 1-5	1054	1362	10.6%	20.5%	68.9%	-10.1	4
2018-04-28	@ Brechin City	W 5-1	1362	1054	68.9%	20.5%	10.6%	+10.1	52
2018-04-28	St. Mirren	W 1-0	1384	1500	24.9%	25.4%	49.7%	+13.3	47
2018-04-28	@ Falkirk	L 0-1	1500	1384	49.7%	25.4%	24.9%	-13.3	74

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2017-12-02	15.48%	Dumbarton	1269	1	@ St. Mirren	1449	0
2	2018-04-17	17.71%	Falkirk	1358	2	@ St. Mirren	1508	1
3	2018-04-07	19.74%	@ Dumbarton	1204	3	Dundee United	1373	2
4	2018-04-10	20.14%	@ Dundee United	1359	1	St. Mirren	1524	0
5	2018-01-06	20.46%	@ Falkirk	1296	6	Dundee United	1457	1
6	2018-04-14	22.65%	Queen Of The South	1315	1	@ Greenock Morton	1410	0
7	2017-09-16	23.40%	Livingston	1300	3	@ Inverness CT	1388	1
8	2017-12-09	23.56%	Queen Of The South	1354	5	@ Dunfermline Athletic	1440	2
9	2017-09-30	23.61%	Dundee United	1394	3	@ Dunfermline Athletic	1479	1
10	2017-08-26	24.22%	Livingston	1286	1	@ Greenock Morton	1366	0
11	2018-04-28	24.94%	@ Falkirk	1384	1	St. Mirren	1500	0
12	2018-02-17	26.63%	@ Livingston	1409	4	St. Mirren	1510	1
13	2017-09-09	27.02%	@ Greenock Morton	1352	3	Dunfermline Athletic	1450	2
14	2017-08-26	27.06%	Queen Of The South	1349	4	@ Falkirk	1403	1
15	2018-01-13	27.08%	Falkirk	1328	1	@ Greenock Morton	1383	0
16	2017-09-23	27.56%	Livingston	1322	2	@ Falkirk	1372	0
17	2018-04-28	27.68%	@ Dundee United	1366	2	Livingston	1457	0
18	2017-10-28	27.77%	@ Inverness CT	1377	1	Dunfermline Athletic	1468	0
19	2018-03-20	27.78%	Queen Of The South	1333	3	@ Dundee United	1381	2
20	2017-09-23	28.39%	@ Dumbarton	1279	2	Inverness CT	1365	1
21	2017-10-21	28.74%	Inverness CT	1354	2	@ Dundee United	1394	0
22	2018-01-27	29.45%	@ Falkirk	1341	3	Inverness CT	1419	1
23	2018-01-27	29.46%	Greenock Morton	1370	3	@ Dundee United	1404	0
24	2017-08-05	29.49%	@ St. Mirren	1365	3	Falkirk	1442	1
25	2018-04-24	29.63%	Inverness CT	1437	1	@ Livingston	1470	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2018-01-06	52.95	@ Falkirk	6	1296	20.46%	Dundee United	1	1457	54.98%	24.56%
2	2017-08-26	34.35	Inverness CT	4	1368	41.20%	@ Brechin City	0	1316	32.82%	25.99%
3	2018-01-27	33.34	Greenock Morton	3	1370	29.46%	@ Dundee United	0	1404	44.73%	25.81%
4	2018-04-21	32.73	@ Queen Of The South	3	1329	30.42%	Dundee United	0	1398	43.71%	25.87%
5	2017-11-25	31.90	Livingston	3	1369	31.72%	@ Queen Of The South	0	1386	42.34%	25.94%
6	2017-08-12	31.60	@ Dunfermline Athletic	5	1375	36.52%	Inverness CT	1	1400	37.42%	26.06%
7	2017-08-26	30.55	@ St. Mirren	3	1374	33.93%	Dundee United	0	1417	40.05%	26.02%
8	2018-02-17	29.71	@ Livingston	4	1409	26.63%	St. Mirren	1	1510	47.81%	25.56%
9	2017-08-26	29.46	Queen Of The South	4	1349	27.06%	@ Falkirk	1	1403	47.33%	25.60%
10	2017-11-25	28.17	Greenock Morton	3	1353	38.00%	@ Falkirk	0	1325	35.95%	26.05%
11	2017-12-09	27.31	Queen Of The South	5	1354	23.56%	@ Dunfermline Athletic	2	1440	51.28%	25.15%
12	2017-08-26	26.25	Dunfermline Athletic	4	1423	51.36%	@ Dumbarton	0	1294	23.49%	25.14%
13	2017-08-12	25.93	@ Greenock Morton	4	1339	33.60%	St. Mirren	1	1385	40.39%	26.01%
14	2018-04-28	25.64	Inverness CT	3	1449	42.30%	@ Greenock Morton	0	1389	31.75%	25.94%
15	2017-09-16	25.42	@ Dunfermline Athletic	3	1438	42.66%	St. Mirren	0	1419	31.41%	25.93%
16	2017-08-05	24.54	@ Queen Of The South	4	1323	36.38%	Brechin City	1	1349	37.56%	26.06%
17	2017-09-23	23.82	Livingston	2	1322	27.56%	@ Falkirk	0	1372	46.78%	25.65%
18	2018-04-28	23.77	@ Dundee United	2	1366	27.68%	Livingston	0	1457	46.65%	25.66%
19	2017-10-21	23.28	Inverness CT	2	1354	28.74%	@ Dundee United	0	1394	45.50%	25.76%
20	2017-11-19	23.02	@ Dundee United	3	1397	46.64%	Falkirk	0	1348	27.70%	25.67%
21	2017-09-16	22.36	Livingston	3	1300	23.40%	@ Inverness CT	1	1388	51.47%	25.13%
22	2017-09-30	22.27	Dundee United	3	1394	23.61%	@ Dunfermline Athletic	1	1479	51.23%	25.16%
23	2017-10-14	22.11	@ Livingston	2	1354	31.38%	Dundee United	0	1416	42.70%	25.93%
24	2017-12-23	22.04	@ Dundee United	3	1446	48.23%	Livingston	0	1385	26.25%	25.52%
25	2017-11-28	20.66	@ Inverness CT	4	1370	58.14%	Brechin City	0	1223	17.95%	23.91%