2013-14 Championship Season

180 games

Final

Promoted

—

No promotions.

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Queen Of The South

8.74 points above expected

55 points · 46.26 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Alloa Athletic

20.57 points below expected

40 points · 60.57 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Dundee	36	21	6	9	69	54	26	+28	61.49	+7.51
2	Hamilton Academical	36	19	10	7	67	68	41	+27	59.01	+7.99
3	Falkirk	36	19	9	8	66	59	33	+26	57.53	+8.47
4	Queen Of The South	36	16	7	13	55	53	39	+14	46.26	+8.74
5	Dumbarton	36	15	6	15	51	65	64	+1	47.15	+3.85
6	Livingston	36	13	7	16	46	51	56	-5	47.18	-1.18
7	Raith Rovers	36	11	9	16	42	48	61	-13	45.61	-3.61
8	Alloa Athletic	36	11	7	18	40	34	51	-17	60.57	-20.57
9	Cowdenbeath	36	11	7	18	40	50	72	-22	36.72	+3.28
10	Greenock Morton	36	6	8	22	26	32	71	-39	38.23	-12.23

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Dundee	1465	69	61.49	+7.51	85.3%	33	49	56	62	67	74	93
Falkirk	1441	66	57.53	+8.47	87.6%	28	45	52	58	63	70	88
Hamilton Academical	1434	67	59.01	+7.99	85.8%	29	46	54	59	64	72	88
Queen Of The South	1391	55	46.26	+8.74	88.3%	16	34	41	46	51	59	78
Dumbarton	1342	51	47.15	+3.85	71.5%	20	35	42	47	52	60	80
Livingston	1305	46	47.18	-1.18	47.1%	19	35	42	47	52	60	80
Alloa Athletic	1302	40	60.57	-20.57	0.5%	25	48	55	61	66	73	89
Cowdenbeath	1273	40	36.72	+3.28	70.1%	14	25	32	36	42	49	67
Raith Rovers	1257	42	45.61	-3.61	34.9%	17	33	40	45	51	58	82
Greenock Morton	1219	26	38.23	-12.23	5.5%	12	26	33	38	43	50	69

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AA	COW	DUM	DUN	FAL	GM	HA	LIV	QOTS	RR
Alloa Athletic	—	2-1-1 7.86	0-1-3 7.11	0-1-3 5.52	1-2-1 5.33	4-0-0 7.68	2-0-2 5.48	1-0-3 6.98	0-1-3 7.43	1-1-2 7.08
Cowdenbeath	1-1-2 3.31	—	1-1-2 4.63	2-0-2 3.07	1-0-3 3.58	2-1-1 5.28	1-1-2 3.36	1-0-3 4.41	0-2-2 4.29	2-1-1 4.73
Dumbarton	3-1-0 4.02	2-1-1 6.46	—	0-0-4 4.02	2-1-1 4.73	2-0-2 6.43	2-1-1 4.41	2-1-1 5.60	1-0-3 5.70	1-1-2 5.81
Dundee	3-1-0 5.57	2-0-2 8.11	4-0-0 7.09	—	0-1-3 6.11	3-0-1 7.98	2-2-0 5.71	2-0-2 6.92	3-0-1 7.04	2-2-0 6.97
Falkirk	1-2-1 5.78	3-0-1 7.55	1-1-2 6.35	3-1-0 4.97	—	2-2-0 7.53	0-1-3 5.51	3-1-0 6.32	3-0-1 6.70	3-1-0 6.86
Greenock Morton	0-0-4 3.46	1-1-2 5.81	2-0-2 4.66	1-0-3 3.18	0-2-2 3.61	—	0-1-3 3.27	2-1-1 4.63	0-1-3 4.79	0-2-2 4.73
Hamilton Academical	2-0-2 5.62	2-1-1 7.78	1-1-2 6.68	0-2-2 5.37	3-1-0 5.57	3-1-0 7.89	—	2-2-0 6.62	3-1-0 6.82	3-1-0 6.74
Livingston	3-0-1 4.14	3-0-1 6.67	1-1-2 5.48	2-0-2 4.18	0-1-3 4.76	1-1-2 6.46	0-2-2 4.47	—	0-2-2 5.52	3-0-1 5.65
Queen Of The South	3-1-0 3.70	2-2-0 6.81	3-0-1 5.38	1-0-3 4.06	1-0-3 4.39	3-1-0 6.32	0-1-3 4.27	2-2-0 5.57	—	1-0-3 5.67
Raith Rovers	2-1-1 4.03	1-1-2 6.36	2-1-1 5.28	0-2-2 4.13	0-1-3 4.24	2-2-0 6.36	0-1-3 4.37	1-0-3 5.42	3-0-1 5.41	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.61	+9.5
Allowed	0.75	-7.6
Differential	0.98	+6.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	8.61%	8.06%	3.89%	0.83%	0.28%	27.22%
1	8.61%	11.11%	6.67%	3.61%	1.39%	1.39%	32.78%
2	8.06%	6.67%	2.22%	1.39%	1.94%	0.28%	20.56%
3	3.89%	3.61%	1.39%	2.22%	1.11%	—	12.22%
4	0.83%	1.39%	1.94%	1.11%	—	—	5.28%
5+	0.28%	1.39%	0.28%	—	—	—	1.94%
Total	27.22%	32.78%	20.56%	12.22%	5.28%	1.94%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.43	1.43	+0.00
SD	1.32	1.32	1.90
CV	0.93	0.93	—
Max	10	10	+8
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	13.89%	2.78%	11.11%	—	—	36.11%
1	13.89%	8.33%	5.56%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	38.89%
2	11.11%	—	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	—	19.44%
3	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	36.11%	25.00%	11.11%	19.44%	5.56%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.94	1.42	-0.47
SD	0.89	1.44	1.78
CV	0.95	1.02	—
Max	3	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	5.56%	13.89%	—	5.56%	2.78%	30.56%
1	8.33%	11.11%	2.78%	2.78%	—	5.56%	30.56%
2	2.78%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	5.56%	—	19.44%
3	2.78%	—	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	—	11.11%
4	2.78%	—	—	2.78%	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	19.44%	25.00%	22.22%	11.11%	13.89%	8.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.39	2.00	-0.61
SD	1.34	1.59	2.17
CV	0.96	0.79	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	5.56%	5.56%	8.33%	—	—	22.22%
1	—	5.56%	8.33%	2.78%	5.56%	—	22.22%
2	2.78%	16.67%	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	—	27.78%
3	—	8.33%	—	5.56%	—	—	13.89%
4	—	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	5.56%	47.22%	19.44%	19.44%	8.33%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.81	1.78	+0.03
SD	1.45	1.10	2.02
CV	0.80	0.62	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	8.33%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
1	16.67%	8.33%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	33.33%
2	13.89%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
3	11.11%	2.78%	—	—	2.78%	—	16.67%
4	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	52.78%	30.56%	11.11%	2.78%	2.78%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	0.72	+0.78
SD	1.18	0.97	1.61
CV	0.79	1.35	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	2.78%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	19.44%
1	8.33%	16.67%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	36.11%
2	11.11%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	19.44%
3	2.78%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	13.89%
4	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	36.11%	41.67%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	0.92	+0.72
SD	1.33	0.87	1.75
CV	0.81	0.95	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	5.56%	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	36.11%
1	5.56%	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	—	5.56%	44.44%
2	8.33%	—	2.78%	—	—	2.78%	13.89%
3	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	19.44%	22.22%	33.33%	13.89%	2.78%	8.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.89	1.97	-1.08
SD	0.85	1.90	2.03
CV	0.96	0.97	—
Max	3	10	+3
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	8.33%	—	2.78%	—	—	19.44%
1	11.11%	16.67%	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	33.33%
2	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
3	2.78%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	—	16.67%
4	—	2.78%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	33.33%	38.89%	13.89%	8.33%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.89	1.14	+0.75
SD	1.89	1.15	1.89
CV	1.00	1.01	—
Max	10	4	+8
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	11.11%	13.89%	5.56%	2.78%	—	36.11%
1	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	5.56%	8.33%	—	—	—	19.44%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	13.89%
4	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	19.44%	27.78%	36.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.42	1.56	-0.14
SD	1.46	1.11	2.00
CV	1.03	0.71	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	13.89%	2.78%	—	—	—	19.44%
1	8.33%	11.11%	13.89%	2.78%	—	—	36.11%
2	13.89%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	25.00%
3	8.33%	5.56%	—	2.78%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	2.78%	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	36.11%	19.44%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.47	1.08	+0.39
SD	1.08	1.00	1.46
CV	0.73	0.92	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	11.11%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	30.56%
1	8.33%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	30.56%
2	—	11.11%	—	2.78%	8.33%	—	22.22%
3	—	—	2.78%	5.56%	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	8.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	33.33%	22.22%	19.44%	8.33%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.33	1.69	-0.36
SD	1.24	1.21	1.31
CV	0.93	0.72	—
Max	4	4	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Queen Of The South	55	46.26	+8.74
2	Falkirk	66	57.53	+8.47
3	Hamilton Academical	67	59.01	+7.99
4	Dundee	69	61.49	+7.51
5	Dumbarton	51	47.15	+3.85

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Alloa Athletic	40	60.57	-20.57
2	Greenock Morton	26	38.23	-12.23
3	Raith Rovers	42	45.61	-3.61
4	Livingston	46	47.18	-1.18
5	Cowdenbeath	40	36.72	+3.28

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Falkirk	5	Mar 25 – Apr 19	1 in 50
2	Hamilton Academical	4	Aug 10 – Aug 31	1 in 30
3	Dumbarton	3	Jan 4 – Jan 18	1 in 22
4	Greenock Morton	2	Apr 1 – Apr 5	1 in 17
5	Dundee	4	Sep 28 – Oct 19	1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Alloa Athletic	3	Jan 2 – Jan 18	1 in 133
2	Greenock Morton	7	Nov 16 – Jan 4	1 in 91
3	Raith Rovers	3	Jan 18 – Feb 15	1 in 14
4	Cowdenbeath	4	Nov 9 – Dec 7	1 in 14
5	Livingston	3	Oct 29 – Nov 16	1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Raith Rovers	10	Aug 17 – Oct 29	1 in 197
2	Falkirk	11	Nov 9 – Feb 1	1 in 53
3	Greenock Morton	5	Jan 11 – Feb 15	1 in 42
4	Hamilton Academical	11	Feb 15 – Apr 19	1 in 41
5	Dumbarton	7	Jan 4 – Feb 22	1 in 33

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Alloa Athletic	7	Dec 21 – Feb 15	1 in 130
2	Raith Rovers	10	Dec 21 – Mar 1	1 in 95
3	Greenock Morton	10	Aug 17 – Oct 26	1 in 93
4	Hamilton Academical	4	Nov 23 – Dec 21	1 in 9
5	Livingston	5	Aug 10 – Sep 14	1 in 9

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Dundee	31.77%	24.09%	18.54%	11.99%	6.84%	3.73%	1.87%	0.73%	0.38%	0.06%
Hamilton Academical	21.49%	21.30%	19.84%	15.55%	10.15%	5.95%	3.31%	1.52%	0.70%	0.19%
Falkirk	16.09%	19.25%	19.35%	17.88%	12.37%	7.55%	3.97%	2.32%	0.98%	0.24%
Queen Of The South	1.13%	2.74%	5.44%	9.32%	13.84%	16.98%	17.45%	15.78%	11.07%	6.25%
Dumbarton	1.53%	3.26%	6.24%	10.09%	15.06%	16.95%	16.45%	14.87%	10.53%	5.02%
Livingston	1.48%	3.54%	5.82%	9.87%	14.71%	17.20%	17.39%	14.22%	10.45%	5.32%
Raith Rovers	0.95%	2.35%	4.44%	8.28%	12.17%	15.29%	18.10%	16.89%	13.73%	7.80%
Alloa Athletic	25.47%	22.98%	19.13%	14.35%	8.69%	4.71%	2.84%	1.14%	0.57%	0.12%
Cowdenbeath	0.02%	0.20%	0.51%	1.16%	2.78%	4.99%	8.37%	15.19%	25.45%	41.33%
Greenock Morton	0.07%	0.29%	0.69%	1.51%	3.39%	6.65%	10.25%	17.34%	26.14%	33.67%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+14.44%

Slight Edge

46.67%21.11%32.22%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 50.54 Elo pts.

202 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

0600

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.39 goals

Neutral

-2+0.25+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

4.2

Open

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

32%

Dundee, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.06/gm

Photo Finish

00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 6.13 * Some Luck: 6.13 to 9.2 * Lucky: 9.2 to 12.26 * Wild Swing: 12.26 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.25 * Close: 1.25 to 1.88 * Off: 1.88 to 2.51 * Way Off: 2.51 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

9.38 points

Lucky

07.6719

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.60

01.574

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

88.28%

Queen Of The South

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

0.48%

Alloa Athletic

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.15

Even

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.57

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

69%

Slight Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

80%

Clear Edge

50%83%100%

Close Games

Expected

57%

Very Frequent

0%57%100%

Blowouts

Expected

16%

Frequent

0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.62

Predictable

00.612

Matchup Imbalance

0.29

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.50

Chaotic

01.002

Repeatability

0.05

Weak Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

29%

As Expected

0%28%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

22%

As Expected

0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.

Probability calibration

0.22

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.68

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.100

Well Within Noise

00.1190.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Direct promotion	Qualified for promotion playoff	Same level	Direct relegation
Dundee	31.77%	54.62%	13.55%	0.06%
Alloa Athletic	25.47%	56.46%	17.95%	0.12%
Hamilton Academical	21.49%	56.69%	21.63%	0.19%
Falkirk	16.09%	56.48%	27.19%	0.24%
Dumbarton	1.53%	19.59%	73.86%	5.02%
Livingston	1.48%	19.23%	73.97%	5.32%
Queen Of The South	1.13%	17.50%	75.12%	6.25%
Raith Rovers	0.95%	15.07%	76.18%	7.80%
Greenock Morton	0.07%	2.49%	63.77%	33.67%
Cowdenbeath	0.02%	1.87%	56.78%	41.33%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
2013-08-10	Cowdenbeath	W 2-0	1351	1289	52.3%	22.4%	25.2%	+10.2	3
2013-08-10	@ Greenock Morton	L 0-2	1289	1351	25.2%	22.4%	52.3%	-10.2	0
2013-08-10	Dundee	W 4-3	1270	1366	31.0%	23.0%	46.0%	+7.7	3
2013-08-10	@ Queen Of The South	L 3-4	1366	1270	46.0%	23.0%	31.0%	-7.7	0
2013-08-10	Falkirk	D 1-1	1327	1343	42.0%	23.2%	34.8%	-0.3	1
2013-08-10	@ Dumbarton	D 1-1	1343	1327	34.8%	23.2%	42.0%	+0.3	1
2013-08-10	Hamilton Academical	L 0-1	1313	1348	39.3%	23.3%	37.4%	-7.8	0
2013-08-10	@ Raith Rovers	W 1-0	1348	1313	37.4%	23.3%	39.3%	+7.8	3
2013-08-10	Livingston	W 1-0	1488	1334	62.5%	20.5%	16.9%	+3.8	3
2013-08-10	@ Alloa Athletic	L 0-1	1334	1488	16.9%	20.5%	62.5%	-3.8	0
2013-08-17	Alloa Athletic	W 1-0	1358	1491	26.5%	22.6%	50.9%	+9.6	3
2013-08-17	@ Dundee	L 0-1	1491	1358	50.9%	22.6%	26.5%	-9.6	3
2013-08-17	Dumbarton	W 4-1	1356	1327	48.2%	22.9%	28.9%	+14.1	6
2013-08-17	@ Hamilton Academical	L 1-4	1327	1356	28.9%	22.9%	48.2%	-14.1	1
2013-08-17	Greenock Morton	W 3-1	1343	1361	41.7%	23.2%	35.1%	+11.6	4
2013-08-17	@ Falkirk	L 1-3	1361	1343	35.1%	23.2%	41.7%	-11.6	3
2013-08-17	Queen Of The South	D 3-3	1330	1278	51.1%	22.6%	26.3%	-0.6	1
2013-08-17	@ Livingston	D 3-3	1278	1330	26.3%	22.6%	51.1%	+0.6	4
2013-08-17	Raith Rovers	L 3-4	1279	1306	40.4%	23.2%	36.3%	-7.0	0
2013-08-17	@ Cowdenbeath	W 4-3	1306	1279	36.3%	23.2%	40.4%	+7.0	3
2013-08-24	Cowdenbeath	W 3-1	1482	1272	67.9%	18.9%	13.2%	+4.7	6
2013-08-24	@ Alloa Athletic	L 1-3	1272	1482	13.2%	18.9%	67.9%	-4.8	0
2013-08-24	Dundee	D 0-0	1313	1368	36.5%	23.2%	40.3%	+0.2	4
2013-08-24	@ Raith Rovers	D 0-0	1368	1313	40.3%	23.2%	36.5%	-0.2	4
2013-08-24	Falkirk	L 0-3	1329	1355	40.7%	23.2%	36.1%	-21.9	1
2013-08-24	@ Livingston	W 3-0	1355	1329	36.1%	23.2%	40.7%	+21.9	7
2013-08-24	Greenock Morton	W 3-1	1313	1350	39.0%	23.3%	37.8%	+12.3	4
2013-08-24	@ Dumbarton	L 1-3	1350	1313	37.8%	23.3%	39.0%	-12.3	3
2013-08-24	Queen Of The South	W 2-0	1370	1278	55.9%	21.9%	22.2%	+9.1	9
2013-08-24	@ Hamilton Academical	L 0-2	1278	1370	22.2%	21.9%	55.9%	-9.1	4
2013-08-30	Livingston	W 3-0	1367	1308	52.0%	22.5%	25.5%	+15.0	7
2013-08-30	@ Dundee	L 0-3	1308	1367	25.5%	22.5%	52.0%	-15.0	1
2013-08-31	Alloa Athletic	D 0-0	1269	1486	18.4%	21.0%	60.6%	+2.1	5
2013-08-31	@ Queen Of The South	D 0-0	1486	1269	60.6%	21.0%	18.4%	-2.1	7
2013-08-31	Dumbarton	W 3-2	1267	1325	36.0%	23.2%	40.7%	+7.2	3
2013-08-31	@ Cowdenbeath	L 2-3	1325	1267	40.7%	23.2%	36.0%	-7.1	4
2013-08-31	Hamilton Academical	L 1-2	1377	1379	43.9%	23.1%	33.0%	-8.0	7
2013-08-31	@ Falkirk	W 2-1	1379	1377	33.0%	23.1%	43.9%	+8.0	12
2013-08-31	Raith Rovers	D 1-1	1337	1313	47.5%	22.9%	29.5%	-0.7	4
2013-08-31	@ Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1313	1337	29.5%	22.9%	47.5%	+0.7	5
2013-09-14	Dumbarton	L 1-2	1484	1318	63.8%	20.2%	16.0%	-11.1	7
2013-09-14	@ Alloa Athletic	W 2-1	1318	1484	16.0%	20.2%	63.8%	+11.1	7
2013-09-14	Falkirk	W 1-0	1274	1369	31.1%	23.0%	45.8%	+8.8	6
2013-09-14	@ Cowdenbeath	L 0-1	1369	1274	45.8%	23.0%	31.1%	-8.8	7
2013-09-14	Greenock Morton	D 2-2	1293	1337	38.0%	23.3%	38.7%	+0.0	2
2013-09-14	@ Livingston	D 2-2	1337	1293	38.7%	23.3%	38.0%	-0.0	5
2013-09-14	Hamilton Academical	D 0-0	1382	1387	43.5%	23.2%	33.3%	-0.5	8
2013-09-14	@ Dundee	D 0-0	1387	1382	33.3%	23.2%	43.5%	+0.5	13
2013-09-14	Raith Rovers	L 0-1	1271	1314	38.2%	23.3%	38.5%	-7.6	5
2013-09-14	@ Queen Of The South	W 1-0	1314	1271	38.5%	23.3%	38.2%	+7.6	8
2013-09-21	Alloa Athletic	W 4-2	1321	1473	24.5%	22.3%	53.2%	+14.6	11
2013-09-21	@ Raith Rovers	L 2-4	1473	1321	53.2%	22.3%	24.5%	-14.6	7
2013-09-21	Cowdenbeath	W 1-0	1388	1283	57.4%	21.7%	21.0%	+4.6	16
2013-09-21	@ Hamilton Academical	L 0-1	1283	1388	21.0%	21.7%	57.4%	-4.6	6
2013-09-21	Dundee	W 3-1	1360	1382	41.2%	23.2%	35.6%	+11.8	10
2013-09-21	@ Falkirk	L 1-3	1382	1360	35.6%	23.2%	41.2%	-11.8	8
2013-09-21	Livingston	L 1-2	1329	1293	49.0%	22.8%	28.2%	-8.8	7
2013-09-21	@ Dumbarton	W 2-1	1293	1329	28.2%	22.8%	49.0%	+8.8	5
2013-09-21	Queen Of The South	L 0-2	1337	1264	53.7%	22.3%	24.1%	-19.0	5
2013-09-21	@ Greenock Morton	W 2-0	1264	1337	24.1%	22.3%	53.7%	+19.0	8
2013-09-28	Cowdenbeath	W 5-1	1301	1278	47.3%	22.9%	29.7%	+18.6	8
2013-09-28	@ Livingston	L 1-5	1278	1301	29.7%	22.9%	47.3%	-18.6	6
2013-09-28	Dumbarton	L 1-2	1283	1320	39.0%	23.3%	37.8%	-7.3	8
2013-09-28	@ Queen Of The South	W 2-1	1320	1283	37.8%	23.3%	39.0%	+7.3	10
2013-09-28	Falkirk	D 1-1	1336	1372	39.2%	23.3%	37.6%	-0.1	12
2013-09-28	@ Raith Rovers	D 1-1	1372	1336	37.6%	23.3%	39.2%	+0.1	11
2013-09-28	Greenock Morton	W 3-1	1370	1318	51.1%	22.6%	26.3%	+9.2	11
2013-09-28	@ Dundee	L 1-3	1318	1370	26.3%	22.6%	51.1%	-9.2	5
2013-09-28	Hamilton Academical	W 1-0	1459	1392	52.8%	22.4%	24.8%	+5.3	10
2013-09-28	@ Alloa Athletic	L 0-1	1392	1459	24.8%	22.4%	52.8%	-5.4	16
2013-10-05	Alloa Athletic	L 0-2	1308	1464	24.1%	22.3%	53.6%	-9.8	5
2013-10-05	@ Greenock Morton	W 2-0	1464	1308	53.6%	22.3%	24.1%	+9.8	13
2013-10-05	Dundee	L 0-2	1260	1379	28.1%	22.8%	49.1%	-11.2	6
2013-10-05	@ Cowdenbeath	W 2-0	1379	1260	49.1%	22.8%	28.1%	+11.2	14
2013-10-05	Livingston	W 2-0	1387	1320	52.9%	22.4%	24.7%	+10.1	19
2013-10-05	@ Hamilton Academical	L 0-2	1320	1387	24.7%	22.4%	52.9%	-10.0	8
2013-10-05	Queen Of The South	W 2-1	1372	1275	56.4%	21.8%	21.8%	+4.5	14
2013-10-05	@ Falkirk	L 1-2	1275	1372	21.8%	21.8%	56.4%	-4.5	8
2013-10-05	Raith Rovers	L 2-4	1327	1336	43.0%	23.2%	33.8%	-12.2	10
2013-10-05	@ Dumbarton	W 4-2	1336	1327	33.8%	23.2%	43.0%	+12.2	15
2013-10-12	Cowdenbeath	D 1-1	1271	1248	47.2%	22.9%	29.8%	-0.7	9
2013-10-12	@ Queen Of The South	D 1-1	1248	1271	29.8%	22.9%	47.2%	+0.7	7
2013-10-12	Dundee	L 1-4	1315	1391	33.7%	23.2%	43.2%	-15.9	10
2013-10-12	@ Dumbarton	W 4-1	1391	1315	43.2%	23.2%	33.7%	+15.9	17
2013-10-12	Falkirk	D 0-0	1474	1376	56.5%	21.8%	21.7%	-1.7	14
2013-10-12	@ Alloa Athletic	D 0-0	1376	1474	21.7%	21.8%	56.5%	+1.7	15
2013-10-12	Hamilton Academical	D 1-1	1299	1397	30.7%	23.0%	46.3%	+0.6	6
2013-10-12	@ Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1397	1299	46.3%	23.0%	30.7%	-0.7	20
2013-10-19	Alloa Athletic	W 3-2	1310	1472	23.4%	22.2%	54.4%	+9.1	11
2013-10-19	@ Livingston	L 2-3	1472	1310	54.4%	22.2%	23.4%	-9.1	14
2013-10-19	Dumbarton	L 1-2	1378	1299	54.4%	22.2%	23.5%	-9.6	15
2013-10-19	@ Falkirk	W 2-1	1299	1378	23.5%	22.2%	54.4%	+9.6	13
2013-10-19	Greenock Morton	W 5-1	1249	1299	37.1%	23.3%	39.6%	+23.3	10
2013-10-19	@ Cowdenbeath	L 1-5	1299	1249	39.6%	23.3%	37.1%	-23.3	6
2013-10-19	Queen Of The South	W 2-1	1406	1270	60.8%	20.9%	18.3%	+3.8	20
2013-10-19	@ Dundee	L 1-2	1270	1406	18.3%	20.9%	60.8%	-3.8	9
2013-10-19	Raith Rovers	D 1-1	1396	1348	50.6%	22.6%	26.7%	-1.0	21
2013-10-19	@ Hamilton Academical	D 1-1	1348	1396	26.7%	22.6%	50.6%	+1.0	16
2013-10-26	Cowdenbeath	D 0-0	1309	1272	49.1%	22.8%	28.1%	-1.0	14
2013-10-26	@ Dumbarton	D 0-0	1272	1309	28.1%	22.8%	49.1%	+1.0	11
2013-10-26	Dundee	W 2-1	1319	1410	31.6%	23.1%	45.3%	+8.2	14
2013-10-26	@ Livingston	L 1-2	1410	1319	45.3%	23.1%	31.6%	-8.2	20
2013-10-26	Falkirk	W 2-0	1396	1368	47.9%	22.9%	29.2%	+11.6	24
2013-10-26	@ Hamilton Academical	L 0-2	1368	1396	29.2%	22.9%	47.9%	-11.6	15
2013-10-26	Greenock Morton	W 2-1	1349	1276	53.6%	22.3%	24.1%	+4.9	19
2013-10-26	@ Raith Rovers	L 1-2	1276	1349	24.1%	22.3%	53.6%	-4.9	6
2013-10-26	Queen Of The South	L 0-3	1463	1266	66.7%	19.3%	14.0%	-33.4	14
2013-10-26	@ Alloa Athletic	W 3-0	1266	1463	14.0%	19.3%	66.7%	+33.4	12
2013-10-29	Livingston	W 1-0	1354	1327	47.8%	22.9%	29.3%	+6.2	22
2013-10-29	@ Raith Rovers	L 0-1	1327	1354	29.3%	22.9%	47.8%	-6.2	14
2013-11-09	Alloa Athletic	L 0-2	1273	1430	24.1%	22.3%	53.7%	-9.8	11
2013-11-09	@ Cowdenbeath	W 2-0	1430	1273	53.7%	22.3%	24.1%	+9.8	17
2013-11-09	Dumbarton	W 2-0	1271	1308	39.1%	23.3%	37.7%	+14.2	9
2013-11-09	@ Greenock Morton	L 0-2	1308	1271	37.7%	23.3%	39.1%	-14.2	14
2013-11-09	Hamilton Academical	L 0-1	1300	1407	29.6%	22.9%	47.5%	-6.2	12
2013-11-09	@ Queen Of The South	W 1-0	1407	1300	47.5%	22.9%	29.6%	+6.2	27
2013-11-09	Livingston	W 4-1	1357	1321	49.0%	22.8%	28.2%	+13.8	18
2013-11-09	@ Falkirk	L 1-4	1321	1357	28.2%	22.8%	49.0%	-13.8	14
2013-11-09	Raith Rovers	W 2-0	1402	1360	49.8%	22.7%	27.5%	+11.0	23
2013-11-09	@ Dundee	L 0-2	1360	1402	27.5%	22.7%	49.8%	-11.0	22
2013-11-16	Dumbarton	L 1-3	1307	1294	46.1%	23.0%	30.9%	-14.4	14
2013-11-16	@ Livingston	W 3-1	1294	1307	30.9%	23.0%	46.1%	+14.5	17
2013-11-16	Falkirk	D 1-1	1413	1371	49.9%	22.7%	27.4%	-0.9	24
2013-11-16	@ Dundee	D 1-1	1371	1413	27.4%	22.7%	49.9%	+0.9	19
2013-11-16	Greenock Morton	W 2-0	1293	1285	45.3%	23.1%	31.6%	+12.4	15
2013-11-16	@ Queen Of The South	L 0-2	1285	1293	31.6%	23.1%	45.3%	-12.4	9
2013-11-16	Hamilton Academical	L 2-4	1264	1413	24.8%	22.4%	52.9%	-7.8	11
2013-11-16	@ Cowdenbeath	W 4-2	1413	1264	52.9%	22.4%	24.8%	+7.8	30
2013-11-16	Raith Rovers	W 1-0	1440	1349	55.7%	21.9%	22.3%	+4.9	20
2013-11-16	@ Alloa Athletic	L 0-1	1349	1440	22.3%	21.9%	55.7%	-4.9	22
2013-11-23	Cowdenbeath	W 4-0	1372	1256	58.6%	21.4%	20.0%	+15.8	22
2013-11-23	@ Falkirk	L 0-4	1256	1372	20.0%	21.4%	58.6%	-15.8	11
2013-11-23	Dundee	L 0-3	1421	1412	45.4%	23.1%	31.5%	-23.9	30
2013-11-23	@ Hamilton Academical	W 3-0	1412	1421	31.5%	23.1%	45.4%	+23.9	27
2013-11-23	Livingston	L 1-5	1273	1293	41.4%	23.2%	35.4%	-24.2	9
2013-11-23	@ Greenock Morton	W 5-1	1293	1273	35.4%	23.2%	41.4%	+24.2	17
2013-11-23	Queen Of The South	W 2-1	1344	1306	49.3%	22.8%	27.9%	+5.6	25
2013-11-23	@ Raith Rovers	L 1-2	1306	1344	27.9%	22.8%	49.3%	-5.6	15
2013-12-04	Alloa Athletic	D 1-1	1308	1444	26.2%	22.6%	51.2%	+1.0	18
2013-12-04	@ Dumbarton	D 1-1	1444	1308	51.2%	22.6%	26.2%	-1.1	21
2013-12-07	Alloa Athletic	L 0-1	1397	1443	37.7%	23.3%	39.0%	-7.5	30
2013-12-07	@ Hamilton Academical	W 1-0	1443	1397	39.0%	23.3%	37.7%	+7.5	24
2013-12-07	Dundee	L 1-2	1249	1436	21.0%	21.7%	57.3%	-4.3	9
2013-12-07	@ Greenock Morton	W 2-1	1436	1249	57.3%	21.7%	21.0%	+4.4	30
2013-12-07	Livingston	L 2-3	1240	1317	33.5%	23.2%	43.4%	-6.1	11
2013-12-07	@ Cowdenbeath	W 3-2	1317	1240	43.4%	23.2%	33.5%	+6.1	20
2013-12-07	Queen Of The South	L 0-1	1309	1300	45.4%	23.1%	31.5%	-8.7	18
2013-12-07	@ Dumbarton	W 1-0	1300	1309	31.5%	23.1%	45.4%	+8.8	18
2013-12-07	Raith Rovers	W 3-1	1387	1350	49.2%	22.8%	28.0%	+9.7	25
2013-12-07	@ Falkirk	L 1-3	1350	1387	28.0%	22.8%	49.2%	-9.7	25
2013-12-14	Cowdenbeath	L 1-2	1440	1234	67.5%	19.0%	13.4%	-11.6	30
2013-12-14	@ Dundee	W 2-1	1234	1440	13.4%	19.0%	67.5%	+11.6	14
2013-12-14	Dumbarton	W 2-1	1340	1300	49.5%	22.8%	27.7%	+5.5	28
2013-12-14	@ Raith Rovers	L 1-2	1300	1340	27.7%	22.8%	49.5%	-5.5	18
2013-12-14	Greenock Morton	W 2-0	1451	1244	67.6%	19.0%	13.4%	+5.6	27
2013-12-14	@ Alloa Athletic	L 0-2	1244	1451	13.4%	19.0%	67.6%	-5.6	9
2013-12-14	Hamilton Academical	D 0-0	1323	1390	34.9%	23.2%	41.9%	+0.3	21
2013-12-14	@ Livingston	D 0-0	1390	1323	41.9%	23.2%	34.9%	-0.3	31
2013-12-21	Cowdenbeath	D 3-3	1346	1246	56.8%	21.8%	21.4%	-0.9	29
2013-12-21	@ Raith Rovers	D 3-3	1246	1346	21.4%	21.8%	56.8%	+1.0	15
2013-12-21	Dundee	L 0-1	1456	1429	47.9%	22.9%	29.2%	-9.2	27
2013-12-21	@ Alloa Athletic	W 1-0	1429	1456	29.2%	22.9%	47.9%	+9.2	33
2013-12-21	Falkirk	L 0-2	1239	1397	23.9%	22.2%	53.9%	-9.7	9
2013-12-21	@ Greenock Morton	W 2-0	1397	1239	53.9%	22.2%	23.9%	+9.8	28
2013-12-21	Hamilton Academical	W 2-1	1295	1389	31.2%	23.0%	45.8%	+8.3	21
2013-12-21	@ Dumbarton	L 1-2	1389	1295	45.8%	23.0%	31.2%	-8.3	31
2013-12-21	Livingston	D 2-2	1309	1324	42.2%	23.2%	34.6%	-0.2	19
2013-12-21	@ Queen Of The South	D 2-2	1324	1309	34.6%	23.2%	42.2%	+0.2	22
2013-12-28	Alloa Athletic	D 0-0	1407	1447	38.5%	23.3%	38.2%	-0.0	29
2013-12-28	@ Falkirk	D 0-0	1447	1407	38.2%	23.3%	38.5%	+0.0	28
2013-12-28	Dumbarton	W 3-0	1438	1303	60.6%	21.0%	18.4%	+11.1	36
2013-12-28	@ Dundee	L 0-3	1303	1438	18.4%	21.0%	60.6%	-11.1	21
2013-12-28	Greenock Morton	W 1-0	1381	1229	62.4%	20.6%	17.1%	+3.8	34
2013-12-28	@ Hamilton Academical	L 0-1	1229	1381	17.1%	20.6%	62.4%	-3.8	9
2013-12-28	Queen Of The South	L 0-2	1247	1309	35.5%	23.2%	41.3%	-13.6	15
2013-12-28	@ Cowdenbeath	W 2-0	1309	1247	41.3%	23.2%	35.5%	+13.5	22
2013-12-28	Raith Rovers	W 3-0	1324	1345	41.3%	23.2%	35.5%	+19.7	25
2013-12-28	@ Livingston	L 0-3	1345	1324	35.5%	23.2%	41.3%	-19.7	29
2014-01-02	Cowdenbeath	L 0-1	1447	1233	68.2%	18.8%	12.9%	-12.4	28
2014-01-02	@ Alloa Athletic	W 1-0	1233	1447	12.9%	18.8%	68.2%	+12.4	18
2014-01-02	Dundee	L 0-2	1325	1449	27.6%	22.7%	49.7%	-11.0	29
2014-01-02	@ Raith Rovers	W 2-0	1449	1325	49.7%	22.7%	27.6%	+11.0	39
2014-01-04	Falkirk	L 0-1	1343	1407	35.3%	23.2%	41.5%	-7.2	25
2014-01-04	@ Livingston	W 1-0	1407	1343	41.5%	23.2%	35.3%	+7.2	32
2014-01-04	Greenock Morton	W 2-0	1292	1225	52.9%	22.4%	24.7%	+10.1	24
2014-01-04	@ Dumbarton	L 0-2	1225	1292	24.7%	22.4%	52.9%	-10.1	9
2014-01-04	Queen Of The South	W 3-1	1385	1322	52.4%	22.4%	25.2%	+8.9	37
2014-01-04	@ Hamilton Academical	L 1-3	1322	1385	25.2%	22.4%	52.4%	-8.8	22
2014-01-11	Alloa Athletic	W 3-1	1313	1435	27.9%	22.8%	49.3%	+15.3	25
2014-01-11	@ Queen Of The South	L 1-3	1435	1313	49.3%	22.8%	27.9%	-15.3	28
2014-01-11	Dumbarton	L 2-4	1245	1302	36.2%	23.2%	40.5%	-10.7	18
2014-01-11	@ Cowdenbeath	W 4-2	1302	1245	40.5%	23.2%	36.2%	+10.7	27
2014-01-11	Hamilton Academical	D 0-0	1414	1394	47.0%	23.0%	30.1%	-0.8	33
2014-01-11	@ Falkirk	D 0-0	1394	1414	30.1%	23.0%	47.0%	+0.8	38
2014-01-11	Livingston	L 0-1	1460	1336	59.4%	21.2%	19.3%	-11.0	39
2014-01-11	@ Dundee	W 1-0	1336	1460	19.3%	21.2%	59.4%	+11.0	28
2014-01-11	Raith Rovers	D 0-0	1215	1314	30.6%	23.0%	46.4%	+0.7	10
2014-01-11	@ Greenock Morton	D 0-0	1314	1215	46.4%	23.0%	30.6%	-0.7	30
2014-01-18	Dumbarton	L 1-5	1420	1313	57.6%	21.6%	20.8%	-32.0	28
2014-01-18	@ Alloa Athletic	W 5-1	1313	1420	20.8%	21.6%	57.6%	+32.0	30
2014-01-18	Falkirk	L 0-2	1235	1413	21.9%	21.9%	56.3%	-9.0	18
2014-01-18	@ Cowdenbeath	W 2-0	1413	1235	56.3%	21.9%	21.9%	+9.0	36
2014-01-18	Greenock Morton	L 0-1	1347	1216	60.2%	21.1%	18.7%	-11.2	28
2014-01-18	@ Livingston	W 1-0	1216	1347	18.7%	21.1%	60.2%	+11.2	13
2014-01-18	Raith Rovers	W 1-0	1329	1313	46.3%	23.0%	30.7%	+6.4	28
2014-01-18	@ Queen Of The South	L 0-1	1313	1329	30.7%	23.0%	46.3%	-6.4	30
2014-01-25	Cowdenbeath	L 3-4	1394	1226	64.0%	20.1%	15.8%	-10.3	38
2014-01-25	@ Hamilton Academical	W 4-3	1226	1394	15.8%	20.1%	64.0%	+10.3	21
2014-01-25	Dundee	W 2-0	1422	1449	40.5%	23.2%	36.3%	+13.8	39
2014-01-25	@ Falkirk	L 0-2	1449	1422	36.3%	23.2%	40.5%	-13.8	39
2014-01-29	Queen Of The South	D 1-1	1227	1335	29.5%	22.9%	47.6%	+0.8	14
2014-01-29	@ Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1335	1227	47.6%	22.9%	29.5%	-0.7	29
2014-02-01	Alloa Athletic	D 1-1	1435	1388	50.5%	22.7%	26.8%	-1.0	40
2014-02-01	@ Dundee	D 1-1	1388	1435	26.8%	22.7%	50.5%	+1.0	29
2014-02-01	Dumbarton	D 3-3	1384	1345	49.5%	22.8%	27.8%	-0.6	39
2014-02-01	@ Hamilton Academical	D 3-3	1345	1384	27.8%	22.8%	49.5%	+0.6	31
2014-02-01	Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1436	1228	67.7%	19.0%	13.3%	-2.4	40
2014-02-01	@ Falkirk	D 1-1	1228	1436	13.3%	19.0%	67.7%	+2.4	15
2014-02-01	Queen Of The South	L 1-2	1336	1334	44.5%	23.1%	32.4%	-8.1	28
2014-02-01	@ Livingston	W 2-1	1334	1336	32.4%	23.1%	44.5%	+8.1	32
2014-02-01	Raith Rovers	W 1-0	1236	1307	34.3%	23.2%	42.5%	+8.3	24
2014-02-01	@ Cowdenbeath	L 0-1	1307	1236	42.5%	23.2%	34.3%	-8.3	30
2014-02-05	Livingston	D 2-2	1345	1328	46.5%	23.0%	30.5%	-0.5	32
2014-02-05	@ Dumbarton	D 2-2	1328	1345	30.5%	23.0%	46.5%	+0.5	29
2014-02-08	Falkirk	W 2-0	1342	1433	31.6%	23.1%	45.3%	+16.4	35
2014-02-08	@ Queen Of The South	L 0-2	1433	1342	45.3%	23.1%	31.6%	-16.5	40
2014-02-08	Hamilton Academical	W 1-0	1434	1384	50.9%	22.6%	26.5%	+5.7	43
2014-02-08	@ Dundee	L 0-1	1384	1434	26.5%	22.6%	50.9%	-5.7	39
2014-02-15	Cowdenbeath	D 1-1	1230	1244	42.3%	23.2%	34.5%	-0.3	16
2014-02-15	@ Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1244	1230	34.5%	23.2%	42.3%	+0.3	25
2014-02-15	Dundee	L 0-1	1359	1440	32.9%	23.1%	43.9%	-6.8	35
2014-02-15	@ Queen Of The South	W 1-0	1440	1359	43.9%	23.1%	32.9%	+6.8	46
2014-02-15	Falkirk	W 2-1	1345	1417	34.1%	23.2%	42.7%	+7.8	35
2014-02-15	@ Dumbarton	L 1-2	1417	1345	42.7%	23.2%	34.1%	-7.8	40
2014-02-15	Hamilton Academical	L 2-4	1298	1378	33.1%	23.2%	43.7%	-10.0	30
2014-02-15	@ Raith Rovers	W 4-2	1378	1298	43.7%	23.2%	33.1%	+9.9	42
2014-02-15	Livingston	L 0-3	1389	1329	52.1%	22.5%	25.4%	-26.9	29
2014-02-15	@ Alloa Athletic	W 3-0	1329	1389	25.4%	22.5%	52.1%	+26.9	32
2014-02-21	Livingston	W 2-0	1388	1355	48.6%	22.8%	28.6%	+11.4	45
2014-02-21	@ Hamilton Academical	L 0-2	1355	1388	28.6%	22.8%	48.6%	-11.4	32
2014-02-22	Alloa Athletic	L 0-1	1230	1362	26.7%	22.6%	50.7%	-5.7	16
2014-02-22	@ Greenock Morton	W 1-0	1362	1230	50.7%	22.6%	26.7%	+5.7	32
2014-02-22	Dundee	W 2-0	1245	1447	19.7%	21.3%	58.9%	+20.6	28
2014-02-22	@ Cowdenbeath	L 0-2	1447	1245	58.9%	21.3%	19.7%	-20.6	46
2014-02-22	Queen Of The South	W 1-0	1409	1352	51.7%	22.5%	25.8%	+5.5	43
2014-02-22	@ Falkirk	L 0-1	1352	1409	25.8%	22.5%	51.7%	-5.5	35
2014-02-22	Raith Rovers	D 3-3	1353	1289	52.6%	22.4%	25.0%	-0.7	36
2014-02-22	@ Dumbarton	D 3-3	1289	1353	25.0%	22.4%	52.6%	+0.7	31
2014-02-25	Alloa Athletic	D 1-1	1289	1367	33.3%	23.2%	43.5%	+0.4	32
2014-02-25	@ Raith Rovers	D 1-1	1367	1289	43.5%	23.2%	33.3%	-0.4	33
2014-03-01	Cowdenbeath	W 1-0	1344	1265	54.3%	22.2%	23.5%	+5.1	35
2014-03-01	@ Livingston	L 0-1	1265	1344	23.5%	22.2%	54.3%	-5.1	28
2014-03-01	Dumbarton	W 3-1	1347	1352	43.5%	23.2%	33.3%	+11.2	38
2014-03-01	@ Queen Of The South	L 1-3	1352	1347	33.3%	23.2%	43.5%	-11.2	36
2014-03-01	Falkirk	L 2-4	1290	1415	27.5%	22.7%	49.8%	-8.5	32
2014-03-01	@ Raith Rovers	W 4-2	1415	1290	49.8%	22.7%	27.5%	+8.5	46
2014-03-01	Greenock Morton	W 2-0	1426	1224	67.1%	19.2%	13.7%	+5.7	49
2014-03-01	@ Dundee	L 0-2	1224	1426	13.7%	19.2%	67.1%	-5.7	16
2014-03-01	Hamilton Academical	L 0-3	1367	1399	39.7%	23.3%	37.0%	-21.5	33
2014-03-01	@ Alloa Athletic	W 3-0	1399	1367	37.0%	23.3%	39.7%	+21.5	48
2014-03-08	Alloa Athletic	D 2-2	1260	1346	32.3%	23.1%	44.5%	+0.4	29
2014-03-08	@ Cowdenbeath	D 2-2	1346	1260	44.5%	23.1%	32.3%	-0.4	34
2014-03-08	Hamilton Academical	D 1-1	1358	1421	35.4%	23.2%	41.4%	+0.2	39
2014-03-08	@ Queen Of The South	D 1-1	1421	1358	41.4%	23.2%	35.4%	-0.2	49
2014-03-08	Livingston	D 1-1	1423	1349	53.8%	22.2%	24.0%	-1.3	47
2014-03-08	@ Falkirk	D 1-1	1349	1423	24.0%	22.2%	53.8%	+1.3	36
2014-03-15	Cowdenbeath	W 5-1	1341	1260	54.5%	22.1%	23.4%	+15.1	39
2014-03-15	@ Dumbarton	L 1-5	1260	1341	23.4%	22.1%	54.5%	-15.1	29
2014-03-15	Dundee	L 0-2	1350	1432	32.9%	23.1%	44.0%	-12.8	36
2014-03-15	@ Livingston	W 2-0	1432	1350	44.0%	23.1%	32.9%	+12.8	52
2014-03-15	Falkirk	W 3-1	1420	1422	44.0%	23.1%	32.9%	+11.0	52
2014-03-15	@ Hamilton Academical	L 1-3	1422	1420	32.9%	23.1%	44.0%	-11.0	47
2014-03-15	Greenock Morton	W 2-1	1281	1218	52.4%	22.4%	25.2%	+5.1	35
2014-03-15	@ Raith Rovers	L 1-2	1218	1281	25.2%	22.4%	52.4%	-5.1	16
2014-03-15	Queen Of The South	L 0-1	1345	1358	42.4%	23.2%	34.4%	-8.3	34
2014-03-15	@ Alloa Athletic	W 1-0	1358	1345	34.4%	23.2%	42.4%	+8.3	42
2014-03-18	Raith Rovers	D 0-0	1445	1286	63.0%	20.4%	16.6%	-2.3	53
2014-03-18	@ Dundee	D 0-0	1286	1445	16.6%	20.4%	63.0%	+2.3	36
2014-03-22	Cowdenbeath	W 2-1	1366	1245	59.1%	21.3%	19.6%	+4.1	45
2014-03-22	@ Queen Of The South	L 1-2	1245	1366	19.6%	21.3%	59.1%	-4.1	29
2014-03-22	Dundee	L 0-1	1356	1442	32.2%	23.1%	44.7%	-6.7	39
2014-03-22	@ Dumbarton	W 1-0	1442	1356	44.7%	23.1%	32.2%	+6.7	56
2014-03-22	Falkirk	W 3-0	1337	1411	33.9%	23.2%	43.0%	+22.9	37
2014-03-22	@ Alloa Athletic	L 0-3	1411	1337	43.0%	23.2%	33.9%	-22.9	47
2014-03-22	Hamilton Academical	L 3-4	1213	1432	18.4%	21.0%	60.6%	-3.5	16
2014-03-22	@ Greenock Morton	W 4-3	1432	1213	60.6%	21.0%	18.4%	+3.5	55
2014-03-22	Livingston	L 2-4	1289	1338	37.3%	23.3%	39.5%	-10.9	36
2014-03-22	@ Raith Rovers	W 4-2	1338	1289	39.5%	23.3%	37.3%	+10.9	39
2014-03-25	Alloa Athletic	W 2-0	1349	1360	42.7%	23.2%	34.1%	+13.2	42
2014-03-25	@ Livingston	L 0-2	1360	1349	34.1%	23.2%	42.7%	-13.2	37
2014-03-25	Dumbarton	W 2-0	1388	1349	49.4%	22.8%	27.8%	+11.1	50
2014-03-25	@ Falkirk	L 0-2	1349	1388	27.8%	22.8%	49.4%	-11.1	39
2014-03-25	Greenock Morton	W 3-0	1241	1210	48.4%	22.9%	28.7%	+16.6	32
2014-03-25	@ Cowdenbeath	L 0-3	1210	1241	28.7%	22.9%	48.4%	-16.6	16
2014-03-25	Queen Of The South	W 1-0	1449	1370	54.3%	22.2%	23.5%	+5.1	59
2014-03-25	@ Dundee	L 0-1	1370	1449	23.5%	22.2%	54.3%	-5.1	45
2014-03-25	Raith Rovers	W 3-2	1435	1278	62.9%	20.4%	16.7%	+3.3	58
2014-03-25	@ Hamilton Academical	L 2-3	1278	1435	16.7%	20.4%	62.9%	-3.3	36
2014-03-29	Dumbarton	L 1-2	1362	1338	47.4%	22.9%	29.6%	-8.5	42
2014-03-29	@ Livingston	W 2-1	1338	1362	29.6%	22.9%	47.4%	+8.5	42
2014-03-29	Falkirk	L 0-1	1454	1399	51.4%	22.6%	26.0%	-9.7	59
2014-03-29	@ Dundee	W 1-0	1399	1454	26.0%	22.6%	51.4%	+9.7	53
2014-03-29	Greenock Morton	W 3-0	1365	1193	64.3%	20.0%	15.6%	+9.5	48
2014-03-29	@ Queen Of The South	L 0-3	1193	1365	15.6%	20.0%	64.3%	-9.5	16
2014-03-29	Hamilton Academical	D 1-1	1258	1438	21.7%	21.8%	56.5%	+1.5	33
2014-03-29	@ Cowdenbeath	D 1-1	1438	1258	56.5%	21.8%	21.7%	-1.5	59
2014-03-29	Raith Rovers	L 0-1	1347	1274	53.6%	22.3%	24.2%	-10.1	37
2014-03-29	@ Alloa Athletic	W 1-0	1274	1347	24.2%	22.3%	53.6%	+10.1	39
2014-04-01	Dumbarton	W 3-0	1184	1346	23.4%	22.1%	54.4%	+28.0	19
2014-04-01	@ Greenock Morton	L 0-3	1346	1184	54.4%	22.1%	23.4%	-28.0	42
2014-04-05	Alloa Athletic	W 4-1	1319	1337	41.7%	23.2%	35.1%	+16.5	45
2014-04-05	@ Dumbarton	L 1-4	1337	1319	35.1%	23.2%	41.7%	-16.5	37
2014-04-05	Cowdenbeath	W 5-0	1409	1259	62.1%	20.6%	17.2%	+16.8	56
2014-04-05	@ Falkirk	L 0-5	1259	1409	17.2%	20.6%	62.1%	-16.8	33
2014-04-05	Dundee	D 1-1	1437	1444	43.2%	23.2%	33.6%	-0.4	60
2014-04-05	@ Hamilton Academical	D 1-1	1444	1437	33.6%	23.2%	43.2%	+0.4	60
2014-04-05	Livingston	W 2-0	1212	1353	25.6%	22.5%	51.9%	+18.4	22
2014-04-05	@ Greenock Morton	L 0-2	1353	1212	51.9%	22.5%	25.6%	-18.4	42
2014-04-12	Cowdenbeath	W 4-0	1445	1243	67.2%	19.2%	13.7%	+10.8	63
2014-04-12	@ Dundee	L 0-4	1243	1445	13.7%	19.2%	67.2%	-10.8	33
2014-04-12	Dumbarton	L 1-3	1284	1335	37.1%	23.3%	39.7%	-12.2	39
2014-04-12	@ Raith Rovers	W 3-1	1335	1284	39.7%	23.3%	37.1%	+12.2	48
2014-04-12	Falkirk	L 1-2	1375	1426	37.0%	23.2%	39.7%	-7.0	48
2014-04-12	@ Queen Of The South	W 2-1	1426	1375	39.7%	23.2%	37.0%	+7.0	59
2014-04-12	Greenock Morton	W 2-0	1320	1230	55.6%	22.0%	22.4%	+9.2	40
2014-04-12	@ Alloa Athletic	L 0-2	1230	1320	22.4%	22.0%	55.6%	-9.2	22
2014-04-12	Hamilton Academical	D 1-1	1335	1436	30.3%	23.0%	46.8%	+0.7	43
2014-04-12	@ Livingston	D 1-1	1436	1335	46.8%	23.0%	30.3%	-0.7	61
2014-04-15	Queen Of The South	W 3-2	1272	1368	31.1%	23.0%	45.9%	+7.9	42
2014-04-15	@ Raith Rovers	L 2-3	1368	1272	45.9%	23.0%	31.1%	-7.9	48
2014-04-19	Alloa Athletic	W 2-1	1436	1329	57.5%	21.6%	20.8%	+4.3	64
2014-04-19	@ Hamilton Academical	L 1-2	1329	1436	20.8%	21.6%	57.5%	-4.3	40
2014-04-19	Dundee	W 1-0	1221	1456	17.1%	20.6%	62.3%	+11.5	25
2014-04-19	@ Greenock Morton	L 0-1	1456	1221	62.3%	20.6%	17.1%	-11.5	63
2014-04-19	Livingston	W 4-0	1232	1335	30.0%	23.0%	47.0%	+32.2	36
2014-04-19	@ Cowdenbeath	L 0-4	1335	1232	47.0%	23.0%	30.0%	-32.2	43
2014-04-19	Queen Of The South	L 0-3	1347	1360	42.5%	23.2%	34.3%	-22.7	48
2014-04-19	@ Dumbarton	W 3-0	1360	1347	34.3%	23.2%	42.5%	+22.7	51
2014-04-19	Raith Rovers	W 2-1	1433	1280	62.4%	20.5%	17.0%	+3.5	62
2014-04-19	@ Falkirk	L 1-2	1280	1433	17.0%	20.5%	62.4%	-3.6	42
2014-04-26	Cowdenbeath	L 1-2	1277	1264	45.9%	23.0%	31.0%	-8.3	42
2014-04-26	@ Raith Rovers	W 2-1	1264	1277	31.0%	23.0%	45.9%	+8.3	39
2014-04-26	Dundee	L 0-3	1325	1444	28.2%	22.8%	49.0%	-16.3	40
2014-04-26	@ Alloa Athletic	W 3-0	1444	1325	49.0%	22.8%	28.2%	+16.3	66
2014-04-26	Falkirk	D 1-1	1232	1436	19.6%	21.3%	59.1%	+1.7	26
2014-04-26	@ Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1436	1232	59.1%	21.3%	19.6%	-1.7	63
2014-04-26	Hamilton Academical	W 4-1	1324	1440	28.6%	22.8%	48.6%	+21.4	51
2014-04-26	@ Dumbarton	L 1-4	1440	1324	48.6%	22.8%	28.6%	-21.4	64
2014-04-26	Livingston	W 2-0	1382	1303	54.4%	22.2%	23.4%	+9.6	54
2014-04-26	@ Queen Of The South	L 0-2	1303	1382	23.4%	22.2%	54.4%	-9.6	43
2014-05-03	Alloa Athletic	W 3-1	1435	1309	59.7%	21.2%	19.1%	+6.9	66
2014-05-03	@ Falkirk	L 1-3	1309	1435	19.1%	21.2%	59.7%	-6.9	40
2014-05-03	Dumbarton	W 2-1	1460	1346	58.4%	21.5%	20.1%	+4.2	69
2014-05-03	@ Dundee	L 1-2	1346	1460	20.1%	21.5%	58.4%	-4.2	51
2014-05-03	Greenock Morton	W 10-2	1419	1234	65.5%	19.7%	14.8%	+15.1	67
2014-05-03	@ Hamilton Academical	L 2-10	1234	1419	14.8%	19.7%	65.5%	-15.1	26
2014-05-03	Queen Of The South	D 1-1	1272	1392	28.1%	22.8%	49.1%	+0.9	40
2014-05-03	@ Cowdenbeath	D 1-1	1392	1272	49.1%	22.8%	28.1%	-0.9	55
2014-05-03	Raith Rovers	W 2-0	1294	1268	47.6%	22.9%	29.4%	+11.7	46
2014-05-03	@ Livingston	L 0-2	1268	1294	29.4%	22.9%	47.6%	-11.7	42

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2014-01-02	12.94%	Cowdenbeath	1233	1	@ Alloa Athletic	1447	0
2	2013-12-14	13.40%	Cowdenbeath	1234	2	@ Dundee	1440	1
3	2013-10-26	13.99%	Queen Of The South	1266	3	@ Alloa Athletic	1463	0
4	2014-01-25	15.85%	Cowdenbeath	1226	4	@ Hamilton Academical	1394	3
5	2013-09-14	15.99%	Dumbarton	1318	2	@ Alloa Athletic	1484	1
6	2014-04-19	17.10%	@ Greenock Morton	1221	1	Dundee	1456	0
7	2014-01-18	18.68%	Greenock Morton	1216	1	@ Livingston	1347	0
8	2014-01-11	19.31%	Livingston	1336	1	@ Dundee	1460	0
9	2014-02-22	19.72%	@ Cowdenbeath	1245	2	Dundee	1447	0
10	2014-01-18	20.79%	Dumbarton	1313	5	@ Alloa Athletic	1420	1
11	2014-04-01	23.40%	@ Greenock Morton	1184	3	Dumbarton	1346	0
12	2013-10-19	23.44%	@ Livingston	1310	3	Alloa Athletic	1472	2
13	2013-10-19	23.48%	Dumbarton	1299	2	@ Falkirk	1378	1
14	2013-09-21	24.08%	Queen Of The South	1264	2	@ Greenock Morton	1337	0
15	2014-03-29	24.16%	Raith Rovers	1274	1	@ Alloa Athletic	1347	0
16	2013-09-21	24.49%	@ Raith Rovers	1321	4	Alloa Athletic	1473	2
17	2014-02-15	25.45%	Livingston	1329	3	@ Alloa Athletic	1389	0
18	2014-04-05	25.64%	@ Greenock Morton	1212	2	Livingston	1353	0
19	2014-03-29	26.03%	Falkirk	1399	1	@ Dundee	1454	0
20	2013-08-17	26.53%	@ Dundee	1358	1	Alloa Athletic	1491	0
21	2014-01-11	27.89%	@ Queen Of The South	1313	3	Alloa Athletic	1435	1
22	2013-09-21	28.16%	Livingston	1293	2	@ Dumbarton	1329	1
23	2014-04-26	28.58%	@ Dumbarton	1324	4	Hamilton Academical	1440	1
24	2013-12-21	29.17%	Dundee	1429	1	@ Alloa Athletic	1456	0
25	2014-03-29	29.65%	Dumbarton	1338	2	@ Livingston	1362	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2013-10-26	33.40	Queen Of The South	3	1266	13.99%	@ Alloa Athletic	0	1463	66.69%	19.33%
2	2014-04-19	32.18	@ Cowdenbeath	4	1232	30.03%	Livingston	0	1335	47.00%	22.96%
3	2014-01-18	31.97	Dumbarton	5	1313	20.79%	@ Alloa Athletic	1	1420	57.59%	21.62%
4	2014-04-01	27.95	@ Greenock Morton	3	1184	23.40%	Dumbarton	0	1346	54.45%	22.15%
5	2014-02-15	26.88	Livingston	3	1329	25.45%	@ Alloa Athletic	0	1389	52.07%	22.47%
6	2013-11-23	24.19	Livingston	5	1293	35.35%	@ Greenock Morton	1	1273	41.43%	23.23%
7	2013-11-23	23.95	Dundee	3	1412	31.49%	@ Hamilton Academical	0	1421	45.44%	23.06%
8	2013-10-19	23.35	@ Cowdenbeath	5	1249	37.15%	Greenock Morton	1	1299	39.60%	23.26%
9	2014-03-22	22.89	@ Alloa Athletic	3	1337	33.85%	Falkirk	0	1411	42.97%	23.18%
10	2014-04-19	22.66	Queen Of The South	3	1360	34.34%	@ Dumbarton	0	1347	42.46%	23.20%
11	2013-08-24	21.90	Falkirk	3	1355	36.09%	@ Livingston	0	1329	40.66%	23.24%
12	2014-03-01	21.49	Hamilton Academical	3	1399	37.04%	@ Alloa Athletic	0	1367	39.70%	23.26%
13	2014-04-26	21.36	@ Dumbarton	4	1324	28.58%	Hamilton Academical	1	1440	48.58%	22.84%
14	2014-02-22	20.64	@ Cowdenbeath	2	1245	19.72%	Dundee	0	1447	58.93%	21.35%
15	2013-12-28	19.69	@ Livingston	3	1324	41.31%	Raith Rovers	0	1345	35.46%	23.23%
16	2013-09-21	19.00	Queen Of The South	2	1264	24.08%	@ Greenock Morton	0	1337	53.66%	22.26%
17	2013-09-28	18.59	@ Livingston	5	1301	47.35%	Cowdenbeath	1	1278	29.72%	22.94%
18	2014-04-05	18.44	@ Greenock Morton	2	1212	25.64%	Livingston	0	1353	51.87%	22.50%
19	2014-04-05	16.84	@ Falkirk	5	1409	62.12%	Cowdenbeath	0	1259	17.25%	20.63%
20	2014-03-25	16.60	@ Cowdenbeath	3	1241	48.44%	Greenock Morton	0	1210	28.71%	22.85%
21	2014-04-05	16.46	@ Dumbarton	4	1319	41.72%	Alloa Athletic	1	1337	35.07%	23.22%
22	2014-02-08	16.45	@ Queen Of The South	2	1342	31.62%	Falkirk	0	1433	45.31%	23.07%
23	2014-04-26	16.34	Dundee	3	1444	49.02%	@ Alloa Athletic	0	1325	28.18%	22.80%
24	2013-10-12	15.93	Dundee	4	1391	43.18%	@ Dumbarton	1	1315	33.65%	23.17%
25	2013-11-23	15.75	@ Falkirk	4	1372	58.56%	Cowdenbeath	0	1256	20.01%	21.43%