Home / Leagues / Scotland / First Division / 2012-13
‹ ›

2012-13 First Division Season

180 games

Final

Promoted

—

No promotions.

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Greenock Morton

19.59 points above expected

67 points · 47.41 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Airdrie United

17.83 points below expected

22 points · 39.83 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Partick Thistle 36 23 9 4 78 76 28 +48 61.33 +16.67
2 Greenock Morton 36 20 7 9 67 73 47 +26 47.41 +19.59
3 Falkirk 36 15 8 13 53 52 48 +4 48.52 +4.48
4 Livingston 36 14 10 12 52 58 56 +2 49.64 +2.36
5 Hamilton Academical 36 14 9 13 51 52 45 +7 45.69 +5.31
6 Dunfermline Athletic 36 14 7 15 49 62 59 +3 39.50 +9.50
7 Raith Rovers 36 11 13 12 46 45 48 -3 45.00 +1.00
8 Dumbarton 36 13 4 19 43 58 83 -25 50.20 -7.20
9 Cowdenbeath 36 8 12 16 36 51 65 -14 39.65 -3.65
10 Airdrie United 36 5 7 24 22 41 89 -48 39.83 -17.83

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Partick Thistle 1490 78 61.33 +16.67 99.1% 32 49 56 61 66 73 92
Greenock Morton 1375 67 47.41 +19.59 99.7% 21 36 42 47 52 60 72
Hamilton Academical 1371 51 45.69 +5.31 78.7% 21 34 41 46 51 58 72
Falkirk 1362 53 48.52 +4.48 75.2% 21 36 43 48 53 61 75
Livingston 1348 52 49.64 +2.36 65.4% 23 38 45 50 55 62 78
Dunfermline Athletic 1337 49 39.50 +9.50 24.9% 14 27 35 40 44 52 65
Dumbarton 1337 43 50.20 -7.20 18.1% 23 38 45 50 55 63 80
Raith Rovers 1315 46 45.00 +1.00 58.9% 19 33 40 45 50 57 73
Cowdenbeath 1275 36 39.65 -3.65 33.7% 17 28 35 39 44 52 71
Airdrie United 1206 22 39.83 -17.83 0.7% 14 28 35 40 45 52 66

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AU COW DUM DA FAL GM HA LIV PT RR
Airdrie United —
0-2-2
5.45
2-0-2
4.08
2-1-1
4.08
0-1-3
4.55
0-0-4
4.62
0-1-3
4.79
1-0-3
4.44
0-1-3
3.16
0-1-3
4.83
Cowdenbeath
2-2-0
5.24
 —
1-1-2
4.14
1-0-3
4.04
1-1-2
4.54
0-1-3
4.77
2-1-1
4.54
0-3-1
4.26
0-0-4
3.24
1-3-0
4.71
Dumbarton
2-0-2
6.64
2-1-1
6.62
 —
1-0-3
4.75
2-0-2
5.17
1-0-3
5.79
2-1-1
5.77
1-0-3
5.47
1-1-2
4.34
1-1-2
5.69
Dunfermline Athletic
1-1-2
6.73
3-0-1
6.68
3-0-1
5.95
 —
0-1-3
6.22
1-1-2
5.84
2-1-1
6.44
1-1-2
5.94
0-1-3
4.70
3-1-0
6.18
Falkirk
3-1-0
6.13
2-1-1
6.16
2-0-2
5.52
3-1-0
4.46
 —
2-0-2
5.41
1-2-1
5.74
2-0-2
5.08
0-1-3
4.27
0-2-2
5.70
Greenock Morton
4-0-0
6.13
3-1-0
5.94
3-0-1
4.91
2-1-1
4.88
2-0-2
5.25
 —
0-1-3
5.54
2-2-0
5.00
2-1-1
4.10
2-1-1
5.58
Hamilton Academical
3-1-0
5.93
1-1-2
6.17
1-1-2
4.91
1-1-2
4.27
1-2-1
4.92
3-1-0
5.13
 —
1-2-1
4.99
1-0-3
3.81
2-0-2
5.43
Livingston
3-0-1
6.27
1-3-0
6.43
3-0-1
5.18
2-1-1
4.75
2-0-2
5.58
0-2-2
5.66
1-2-1
5.66
 —
0-1-3
4.29
2-1-1
5.74
Partick Thistle
3-1-0
7.73
4-0-0
7.61
2-1-1
6.39
3-1-0
6.02
3-1-0
6.42
1-1-2
6.62
3-0-1
6.93
3-1-0
6.41
 —
1-3-0
7.19
Raith Rovers
3-1-0
5.84
0-3-1
5.97
2-1-1
4.96
0-1-3
4.50
2-2-0
4.96
1-1-2
5.08
2-0-2
5.23
1-1-2
4.92
0-3-1
3.62
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.76 +12.0
Allowed 0.74 -7.2
Differential 0.95 +5.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.44%6.11%6.67%3.89%2.22%0.83%24.17%
16.11%10.00%7.22%2.50%2.22%0.83%28.89%
26.67%7.22%6.67%2.50%1.11%0.28%24.44%
33.89%2.50%2.50%2.22%1.67%—12.78%
42.22%2.22%1.11%1.67%0.56%—7.78%
5+0.83%0.83%0.28%———1.94%
Total24.17%28.89%24.44%12.78%7.78%1.94%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.58 1.58 +0.00
SD 1.33 1.33 1.98
CV 0.84 0.84 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%36.11%
1—11.11%11.11%2.78%8.33%—33.33%
22.78%2.78%2.78%5.56%—2.78%16.67%
3—2.78%—2.78%2.78%—8.33%
4—2.78%—2.78%——5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%25.00%25.00%19.44%16.67%8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 2.47 -1.33
SD 1.17 1.54 2.03
CV 1.03 0.62 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—8.33%2.78%8.33%5.56%—25.00%
15.56%22.22%11.11%———38.89%
2——8.33%2.78%2.78%—13.89%
35.56%2.78%2.78%—2.78%—13.89%
4—2.78%2.78%—2.78%—8.33%
5+———————
Total11.11%36.11%27.78%11.11%13.89%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.42 1.81 -0.39
SD 1.25 1.21 1.76
CV 0.88 0.67 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%2.78%8.33%16.67%2.78%2.78%36.11%
12.78%—5.56%—2.78%2.78%13.89%
22.78%2.78%5.56%2.78%——13.89%
32.78%5.56%8.33%2.78%5.56%—25.00%
4—2.78%2.78%5.56%——11.11%
5+———————
Total11.11%13.89%30.56%27.78%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 2.31 -0.69
SD 1.48 1.33 2.15
CV 0.92 0.58 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%2.78%—2.78%—16.67%
111.11%5.56%5.56%2.78%2.78%2.78%30.56%
22.78%5.56%8.33%2.78%5.56%—25.00%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%2.78%—19.44%
48.33%—————8.33%
5+———————
Total27.78%27.78%16.67%11.11%13.89%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 1.64 +0.08
SD 1.21 1.50 2.06
CV 0.70 0.91 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%2.78%11.11%———19.44%
18.33%13.89%8.33%5.56%5.56%—41.67%
213.89%8.33%2.78%———25.00%
3————2.78%—2.78%
42.78%5.56%—2.78%——11.11%
5+———————
Total30.56%30.56%22.22%8.33%8.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.33 +0.11
SD 1.18 1.24 1.75
CV 0.82 0.93 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—8.33%2.78%2.78%——13.89%
111.11%5.56%8.33%—2.78%—27.78%
28.33%5.56%11.11%———25.00%
35.56%2.78%2.78%2.78%——13.89%
42.78%2.78%5.56%2.78%——13.89%
5+—2.78%2.78%———5.56%
Total27.78%27.78%33.33%8.33%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.03 1.31 +0.72
SD 1.44 1.06 1.77
CV 0.71 0.82 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%8.33%5.56%2.78%2.78%—22.22%
15.56%16.67%8.33%5.56%——36.11%
211.11%8.33%2.78%2.78%——25.00%
35.56%—2.78%2.78%——11.11%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total30.56%33.33%19.44%13.89%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.25 +0.19
SD 1.21 1.13 1.91
CV 0.83 0.90 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—11.11%2.78%2.78%—22.22%
12.78%8.33%8.33%——2.78%22.22%
25.56%13.89%13.89%5.56%——38.89%
35.56%2.78%————8.33%
4—2.78%—2.78%——5.56%
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total22.22%27.78%33.33%11.11%2.78%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.56 +0.06
SD 1.25 1.30 2.01
CV 0.77 0.83 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%2.78%2.78%———16.67%
111.11%5.56%2.78%2.78%——22.22%
28.33%13.89%5.56%———27.78%
38.33%2.78%2.78%2.78%——16.67%
45.56%2.78%————8.33%
5+2.78%5.56%————8.33%
Total47.22%33.33%13.89%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 0.78 +1.33
SD 1.69 0.90 1.93
CV 0.80 1.15 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.89%11.11%8.33%———33.33%
12.78%11.11%2.78%5.56%——22.22%
211.11%11.11%5.56%2.78%2.78%—33.33%
3——5.56%2.78%——8.33%
4————2.78%—2.78%
5+———————
Total27.78%33.33%22.22%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.33 -0.08
SD 1.11 1.17 1.23
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Greenock Morton 67 47.41 +19.59
2 Partick Thistle 78 61.33 +16.67
3 Dunfermline Athletic 49 39.50 +9.50
4 Hamilton Academical 51 45.69 +5.31
5 Falkirk 53 48.52 +4.48

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Airdrie United 22 39.83 -17.83
2 Dumbarton 43 50.20 -7.20
3 Cowdenbeath 36 39.65 -3.65
4 Raith Rovers 46 45.00 +1.00
5 Livingston 52 49.64 +2.36

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Greenock Morton 5 Sep 1 – Oct 6 1 in 1,114
2 Partick Thistle 8 Feb 19 – Mar 30 1 in 260
3 Dunfermline Athletic 5 Aug 25 – Sep 29 1 in 180
4 Cowdenbeath 3 Aug 18 – Sep 1 1 in 105
5 Hamilton Academical 4 Apr 2 – Apr 13 1 in 76

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dumbarton 5 Aug 11 – Sep 15 1 in 1,920
2 Airdrie United 8 Mar 16 – Apr 27 1 in 273
3 Dunfermline Athletic 4 Feb 12 – Mar 2 1 in 149
4 Raith Rovers 3 Jan 12 – Jan 26 1 in 21
5 Cowdenbeath 4 Mar 23 – Apr 6 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Greenock Morton 7 Sep 1 – Oct 27 1 in 58
2 Partick Thistle 18 Jan 19 – May 4 1 in 50
3 Hamilton Academical 7 Apr 2 – Apr 27 1 in 17
4 Falkirk 6 Sep 15 – Oct 27 1 in 16
5 Dunfermline Athletic 8 Aug 25 – Oct 27 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dumbarton 10 Aug 11 – Oct 27 1 in 358
2 Cowdenbeath 16 Sep 15 – Jan 26 1 in 190
3 Dunfermline Athletic 10 Feb 12 – Apr 6 1 in 115
4 Airdrie United 15 Jan 19 – Apr 27 1 in 38
5 Hamilton Academical 7 Aug 11 – Sep 29 1 in 12

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Partick Thistle66.00%17.06%8.05%4.17%2.35%1.22%0.59%0.31%0.19%0.06%
Greenock Morton5.07%12.12%13.48%14.38%13.32%12.07%10.71%8.46%6.68%3.71%
Falkirk5.92%14.67%14.85%14.40%12.95%11.44%9.70%7.62%5.23%3.22%
Livingston7.89%16.58%16.43%14.44%12.27%10.71%8.61%6.29%4.54%2.24%
Hamilton Academical2.97%8.76%11.04%11.55%13.36%13.36%12.46%11.00%9.03%6.47%
Dunfermline Athletic0.50%2.28%3.41%5.89%7.17%9.12%12.28%16.23%19.32%23.80%
Raith Rovers2.58%7.63%9.64%10.70%12.46%12.96%12.91%12.14%11.09%7.89%
Dumbarton8.12%17.05%16.42%14.42%12.52%10.60%8.11%6.30%4.24%2.22%
Cowdenbeath0.57%1.96%3.31%4.83%6.98%9.04%12.48%15.94%19.85%25.04%
Airdrie United0.38%1.89%3.37%5.22%6.62%9.48%12.15%15.71%19.83%25.35%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-1.67%
No Edge
37.22%23.89%38.89%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -5.79 Elo pts.
220 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.11 goals
Neutral
-2-0.03+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.2
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
66%
Partick Thistle, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.31/gm
Tight Race
00.190.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.84 * Some Luck: 5.84 to 8.75 * Lucky: 8.75 to 11.67 * Wild Swing: 11.67 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.55 * Close: 1.55 to 2.33 * Off: 2.33 to 3.1 * Way Off: 3.1 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
10.52 points
Lucky
07.2918
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.80
Close
01.944
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.68%
Greenock Morton
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
0.65%
Airdrie United
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.71
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
57%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
84%
Strong Edge
50%80%100%
Close Games
Expected
59%
Very Frequent
0%55%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Frequent
0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.66
Hard to Predict
00.642
Matchup Imbalance
0.25
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
2.14
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
-0.26
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
34%
Upset-Prone
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
35%
Very Shaky
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.01
Miscalibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.66
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.121
Well Within Noise
00.1240.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Partick Thistle 66.00% 33.75% 0.19% 0.06%
Dumbarton 8.12% 85.42% 4.24% 2.22%
Livingston 7.89% 85.33% 4.54% 2.24%
Falkirk 5.92% 85.63% 5.23% 3.22%
Greenock Morton 5.07% 84.54% 6.68% 3.71%
Hamilton Academical 2.97% 81.53% 9.03% 6.47%
Raith Rovers 2.58% 78.44% 11.09% 7.89%
Dunfermline Athletic 0.50% 56.38% 19.32% 23.80%
Cowdenbeath 0.57% 54.54% 19.85% 25.04%
Airdrie United 0.38% 54.44% 19.83% 25.35%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2012-08-11 Dumbarton W 4-1 1361 1465 24.5% 32.8% 42.7% +13.6 3
2012-08-11 @ Airdrie United L 1-4 1465 1361 42.7% 32.8% 24.5% -13.6 0
2012-08-11 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-4 1287 1354 28.8% 33.7% 37.5% -16.1 0
2012-08-11 @ Cowdenbeath W 4-0 1354 1287 37.5% 33.7% 28.8% +16.1 3
2012-08-11 Falkirk W 3-1 1353 1345 39.2% 33.5% 27.3% +7.1 3
2012-08-11 @ Partick Thistle L 1-3 1345 1353 27.3% 33.5% 39.2% -7.1 0
2012-08-11 Hamilton Academical W 2-0 1315 1327 36.4% 33.8% 29.8% +8.7 3
2012-08-11 @ Raith Rovers L 0-2 1327 1315 29.8% 33.8% 36.4% -8.7 0
2012-08-11 Livingston D 2-2 1272 1337 28.9% 33.7% 37.4% +0.2 1
2012-08-11 @ Greenock Morton D 2-2 1337 1272 37.4% 33.7% 28.9% -0.2 1
2012-08-18 Airdrie United L 0-2 1337 1375 32.7% 34.0% 33.4% -9.3 1
2012-08-18 @ Livingston W 2-0 1375 1337 33.4% 34.0% 32.7% +9.3 6
2012-08-18 Cowdenbeath L 0-3 1451 1271 61.5% 24.6% 13.9% -21.0 0
2012-08-18 @ Dumbarton W 3-0 1271 1451 13.9% 24.6% 61.5% +21.0 3
2012-08-18 Greenock Morton D 1-1 1318 1272 44.5% 32.4% 23.2% -0.6 1
2012-08-18 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-1 1272 1318 23.2% 32.4% 44.5% +0.6 2
2012-08-18 Partick Thistle L 0-1 1370 1361 39.3% 33.5% 27.2% -5.6 3
2012-08-18 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-0 1361 1370 27.2% 33.5% 39.3% +5.6 6
2012-08-18 Raith Rovers L 0-2 1338 1324 40.0% 33.4% 26.6% -10.7 0
2012-08-18 @ Falkirk W 2-0 1324 1338 26.6% 33.4% 40.0% +10.7 6
2012-08-25 Dumbarton W 3-0 1366 1430 29.1% 33.8% 37.1% +14.7 9
2012-08-25 @ Partick Thistle L 0-3 1430 1366 37.1% 33.8% 29.1% -14.7 0
2012-08-25 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-2 1384 1364 40.9% 33.2% 25.9% -5.4 6
2012-08-25 @ Airdrie United W 2-1 1364 1384 25.9% 33.2% 40.9% +5.4 6
2012-08-25 Falkirk L 1-2 1273 1328 30.3% 33.9% 35.8% -4.4 2
2012-08-25 @ Greenock Morton W 2-1 1328 1273 35.8% 33.9% 30.3% +4.4 3
2012-08-25 Hamilton Academical W 1-0 1292 1318 34.4% 33.9% 31.7% +4.8 6
2012-08-25 @ Cowdenbeath L 0-1 1318 1292 31.7% 33.9% 34.4% -4.8 1
2012-08-25 Livingston D 0-0 1335 1328 39.0% 33.5% 27.5% -0.4 7
2012-08-25 @ Raith Rovers D 0-0 1328 1335 27.5% 33.5% 39.0% +0.3 2
2012-09-01 Cowdenbeath L 0-3 1379 1297 49.3% 30.8% 20.0% -18.0 6
2012-09-01 @ Airdrie United W 3-0 1297 1379 20.0% 30.8% 49.3% +18.0 9
2012-09-01 Dumbarton W 3-0 1268 1415 20.4% 31.0% 48.5% +17.8 5
2012-09-01 @ Greenock Morton L 0-3 1415 1268 48.5% 31.0% 20.4% -17.8 0
2012-09-01 Hamilton Academical W 4-0 1381 1313 47.4% 31.4% 21.2% +12.6 12
2012-09-01 @ Partick Thistle L 0-4 1313 1381 21.2% 31.4% 47.4% -12.6 1
2012-09-01 Raith Rovers W 3-1 1369 1334 43.0% 32.8% 24.3% +6.5 9
2012-09-01 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-3 1334 1369 24.3% 32.8% 43.0% -6.5 7
2012-09-02 Livingston L 1-2 1332 1328 38.6% 33.6% 27.9% -5.2 3
2012-09-02 @ Falkirk W 2-1 1328 1332 27.9% 33.6% 38.6% +5.2 5
2012-09-15 Airdrie United W 2-0 1328 1361 33.3% 34.0% 32.7% +9.3 10
2012-09-15 @ Raith Rovers L 0-2 1361 1328 32.7% 34.0% 33.3% -9.3 6
2012-09-15 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-2 1398 1376 41.1% 33.2% 25.8% -10.8 0
2012-09-15 @ Dumbarton W 2-0 1376 1398 25.8% 33.2% 41.1% +10.8 12
2012-09-15 Falkirk D 1-1 1300 1327 34.3% 33.9% 31.8% -0.1 2
2012-09-15 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-1 1327 1300 31.8% 33.9% 34.3% +0.1 4
2012-09-15 Greenock Morton L 3-4 1315 1286 42.0% 33.0% 25.0% -5.1 9
2012-09-15 @ Cowdenbeath W 4-3 1286 1315 25.0% 33.0% 42.0% +5.1 8
2012-09-15 Partick Thistle L 1-2 1334 1393 29.6% 33.8% 36.6% -4.3 5
2012-09-15 @ Livingston W 2-1 1393 1334 36.6% 33.8% 29.6% +4.3 15
2012-09-22 Airdrie United D 1-1 1327 1352 34.5% 33.9% 31.6% -0.1 5
2012-09-22 @ Falkirk D 1-1 1352 1327 31.6% 33.9% 34.5% +0.1 7
2012-09-22 Cowdenbeath W 2-1 1398 1309 50.1% 30.4% 19.5% +3.1 18
2012-09-22 @ Partick Thistle L 1-2 1309 1398 19.5% 30.4% 50.1% -3.1 9
2012-09-22 Hamilton Academical D 3-3 1387 1300 49.8% 30.5% 19.6% -0.5 1
2012-09-22 @ Dumbarton D 3-3 1300 1387 19.6% 30.5% 49.8% +0.5 3
2012-09-22 Livingston W 4-0 1387 1329 46.0% 31.9% 22.1% +13.1 15
2012-09-22 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-4 1329 1387 22.1% 31.9% 46.0% -13.1 5
2012-09-22 Raith Rovers W 1-0 1291 1337 31.5% 33.9% 34.6% +5.1 11
2012-09-22 @ Greenock Morton L 0-1 1337 1291 34.6% 33.9% 31.5% -5.1 10
2012-09-29 Dumbarton W 5-0 1316 1386 28.3% 33.7% 38.0% +24.0 8
2012-09-29 @ Livingston L 0-5 1386 1316 38.0% 33.7% 28.3% -24.0 1
2012-09-29 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-3 1301 1400 25.0% 33.0% 42.1% -11.1 3
2012-09-29 @ Hamilton Academical W 3-0 1400 1301 42.1% 33.0% 25.0% +11.1 18
2012-09-29 Falkirk D 1-1 1306 1327 35.1% 33.9% 30.9% -0.1 10
2012-09-29 @ Cowdenbeath D 1-1 1327 1306 30.9% 33.9% 35.1% +0.1 6
2012-09-29 Greenock Morton L 2-3 1352 1296 45.7% 32.0% 22.3% -5.5 7
2012-09-29 @ Airdrie United W 3-2 1296 1352 22.3% 32.0% 45.7% +5.6 14
2012-09-29 Partick Thistle D 1-1 1332 1401 28.5% 33.7% 37.8% +0.2 11
2012-09-29 @ Raith Rovers D 1-1 1401 1332 37.8% 33.7% 28.5% -0.2 19
2012-10-06 Cowdenbeath D 1-1 1340 1306 42.8% 32.8% 24.4% -0.5 9
2012-10-06 @ Livingston D 1-1 1306 1340 24.4% 32.8% 42.8% +0.5 11
2012-10-06 Dumbarton D 2-2 1332 1362 33.8% 34.0% 32.3% -0.0 12
2012-10-06 @ Raith Rovers D 2-2 1362 1332 32.3% 34.0% 33.8% +0.0 2
2012-10-06 Dunfermline Athletic D 2-2 1327 1411 26.7% 33.4% 40.0% +0.3 7
2012-10-06 @ Falkirk D 2-2 1411 1327 40.0% 33.4% 26.7% -0.3 19
2012-10-06 Hamilton Academical L 0-4 1346 1290 45.9% 31.9% 22.2% -22.3 7
2012-10-06 @ Airdrie United W 4-0 1290 1346 22.2% 31.9% 45.9% +22.3 6
2012-10-06 Partick Thistle W 3-1 1302 1401 25.0% 33.0% 42.0% +9.5 17
2012-10-06 @ Greenock Morton L 1-3 1401 1302 42.0% 33.0% 25.0% -9.5 19
2012-10-20 Airdrie United W 7-0 1391 1324 47.3% 31.5% 21.2% +21.4 22
2012-10-20 @ Partick Thistle L 0-7 1324 1391 21.2% 31.5% 47.3% -21.4 7
2012-10-20 Falkirk L 0-2 1362 1327 42.9% 32.8% 24.3% -11.2 2
2012-10-20 @ Dumbarton W 2-0 1327 1362 24.3% 32.8% 42.9% +11.2 10
2012-10-20 Greenock Morton D 2-2 1411 1311 51.5% 29.8% 18.7% -0.7 20
2012-10-20 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 2-2 1311 1411 18.7% 29.8% 51.5% +0.7 18
2012-10-20 Livingston L 1-2 1312 1340 34.1% 33.9% 32.0% -4.8 6
2012-10-20 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-1 1340 1312 32.0% 33.9% 34.1% +4.8 12
2012-10-20 Raith Rovers D 4-4 1307 1332 34.4% 33.9% 31.7% -0.0 12
2012-10-20 @ Cowdenbeath D 4-4 1332 1307 31.7% 33.9% 34.4% +0.0 13
2012-10-27 Airdrie United L 3-4 1351 1302 44.8% 32.3% 22.9% -5.3 2
2012-10-27 @ Dumbarton W 4-3 1302 1351 22.9% 32.3% 44.8% +5.3 10
2012-10-27 Cowdenbeath W 3-0 1410 1307 52.0% 29.6% 18.4% +8.4 23
2012-10-27 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-3 1307 1410 18.4% 29.6% 52.0% -8.4 12
2012-10-27 Greenock Morton D 2-2 1344 1312 42.5% 32.9% 24.6% -0.4 13
2012-10-27 @ Livingston D 2-2 1312 1344 24.6% 32.9% 42.5% +0.4 19
2012-10-27 Partick Thistle D 0-0 1338 1412 27.8% 33.6% 38.6% +0.3 11
2012-10-27 @ Falkirk D 0-0 1412 1338 38.6% 33.6% 27.8% -0.3 23
2012-10-27 Raith Rovers L 0-1 1307 1332 34.5% 33.9% 31.6% -5.1 6
2012-10-27 @ Hamilton Academical W 1-0 1332 1307 31.6% 33.9% 34.5% +5.1 16
2012-11-09 Livingston L 1-3 1308 1344 32.9% 34.0% 33.2% -8.1 10
2012-11-09 @ Airdrie United W 3-1 1344 1308 33.2% 34.0% 32.9% +8.1 16
2012-11-10 Dumbarton L 0-1 1298 1346 31.3% 33.9% 34.8% -4.8 12
2012-11-10 @ Cowdenbeath W 1-0 1346 1298 34.8% 33.9% 31.3% +4.8 5
2012-11-10 Dunfermline Athletic W 5-1 1412 1418 37.2% 33.8% 29.1% +13.5 26
2012-11-10 @ Partick Thistle L 1-5 1418 1412 29.1% 33.8% 37.2% -13.5 23
2012-11-10 Falkirk W 2-1 1337 1339 37.9% 33.7% 28.5% +4.2 19
2012-11-10 @ Raith Rovers L 1-2 1339 1337 28.5% 33.7% 37.9% -4.2 11
2012-11-10 Hamilton Academical L 0-1 1312 1302 39.5% 33.4% 27.0% -5.6 19
2012-11-10 @ Greenock Morton W 1-0 1302 1312 27.0% 33.4% 39.5% +5.6 9
2012-11-16 Partick Thistle W 1-0 1308 1426 23.0% 32.3% 44.7% +6.1 12
2012-11-16 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-1 1426 1308 44.7% 32.3% 23.0% -6.1 26
2012-11-17 Airdrie United D 1-1 1294 1300 37.2% 33.7% 29.1% -0.2 13
2012-11-17 @ Cowdenbeath D 1-1 1300 1294 29.1% 33.7% 37.2% +0.2 11
2012-11-17 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-3 1342 1405 29.2% 33.8% 37.0% -7.4 19
2012-11-17 @ Raith Rovers W 3-1 1405 1342 37.0% 33.8% 29.2% +7.4 26
2012-11-17 Falkirk W 2-1 1352 1334 40.5% 33.3% 26.2% +4.0 19
2012-11-17 @ Livingston L 1-2 1334 1352 26.2% 33.3% 40.5% -4.0 11
2012-11-17 Greenock Morton L 1-5 1350 1307 44.1% 32.5% 23.4% -18.0 5
2012-11-17 @ Dumbarton W 5-1 1307 1350 23.4% 32.5% 44.1% +18.0 22
2012-11-24 Cowdenbeath W 1-0 1325 1293 42.5% 32.9% 24.7% +4.0 25
2012-11-24 @ Greenock Morton L 0-1 1293 1325 24.7% 32.9% 42.5% -4.0 13
2012-11-24 Dumbarton W 4-0 1412 1332 49.0% 30.9% 20.2% +12.0 29
2012-11-24 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-4 1332 1412 20.2% 30.9% 49.0% -12.0 5
2012-11-24 Hamilton Academical W 2-1 1330 1314 40.4% 33.3% 26.3% +4.0 14
2012-11-24 @ Falkirk L 1-2 1314 1330 26.3% 33.3% 40.4% -4.0 12
2012-11-24 Livingston W 2-0 1420 1356 46.8% 31.6% 21.6% +6.8 29
2012-11-24 @ Partick Thistle L 0-2 1356 1420 21.6% 31.6% 46.8% -6.8 19
2012-11-24 Raith Rovers D 0-0 1300 1334 33.2% 34.0% 32.9% +0.0 12
2012-11-24 @ Airdrie United D 0-0 1334 1300 32.9% 34.0% 33.2% +0.0 20
2012-12-08 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-1 1349 1424 27.7% 33.6% 38.7% +5.2 22
2012-12-08 @ Livingston L 1-2 1424 1349 38.7% 33.6% 27.7% -5.2 29
2012-12-08 Greenock Morton D 3-3 1334 1329 38.8% 33.6% 27.7% -0.2 21
2012-12-08 @ Raith Rovers D 3-3 1329 1334 27.7% 33.6% 38.8% +0.2 26
2012-12-15 Airdrie United W 2-0 1329 1300 42.1% 33.0% 24.9% +7.6 29
2012-12-15 @ Greenock Morton L 0-2 1300 1329 24.9% 33.0% 42.1% -7.6 12
2012-12-15 Cowdenbeath W 2-0 1334 1289 44.3% 32.4% 23.3% +7.2 17
2012-12-15 @ Falkirk L 0-2 1289 1334 23.3% 32.4% 44.3% -7.2 13
2012-12-15 Hamilton Academical D 1-1 1419 1310 52.8% 29.2% 18.0% -1.0 30
2012-12-15 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-1 1310 1419 18.0% 29.2% 52.8% +1.0 13
2012-12-15 Raith Rovers W 3-2 1426 1334 50.6% 30.2% 19.2% +2.9 32
2012-12-15 @ Partick Thistle L 2-3 1334 1426 19.2% 30.2% 50.6% -2.9 21
2012-12-22 Falkirk L 1-4 1292 1342 31.0% 33.9% 35.1% -11.0 12
2012-12-22 @ Airdrie United W 4-1 1342 1292 35.1% 33.9% 31.0% +11.0 20
2012-12-22 Livingston D 1-1 1282 1354 28.1% 33.6% 38.3% +0.3 14
2012-12-22 @ Cowdenbeath D 1-1 1354 1282 38.3% 33.6% 28.1% -0.3 23
2012-12-26 Airdrie United W 3-0 1311 1281 42.2% 32.9% 24.9% +11.1 16
2012-12-26 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-3 1281 1311 24.9% 32.9% 42.2% -11.1 12
2012-12-26 Falkirk L 0-1 1418 1353 47.1% 31.6% 21.4% -6.3 30
2012-12-26 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-0 1353 1418 21.4% 31.6% 47.1% +6.3 23
2012-12-26 Greenock Morton L 1-2 1429 1337 50.6% 30.2% 19.2% -6.3 32
2012-12-26 @ Partick Thistle W 2-1 1337 1429 19.2% 30.2% 50.6% +6.3 32
2012-12-29 Cowdenbeath D 2-2 1331 1282 44.8% 32.3% 22.9% -0.5 22
2012-12-29 @ Raith Rovers D 2-2 1282 1331 22.9% 32.3% 44.8% +0.4 15
2012-12-29 Dumbarton L 3-4 1359 1320 43.4% 32.6% 23.9% -5.2 23
2012-12-29 @ Falkirk W 4-3 1320 1359 23.9% 32.6% 43.4% +5.2 8
2012-12-29 Dunfermline Athletic W 4-2 1343 1412 28.5% 33.7% 37.8% +7.9 35
2012-12-29 @ Greenock Morton L 2-4 1412 1343 37.8% 33.7% 28.5% -7.9 30
2012-12-29 Partick Thistle D 1-1 1270 1423 20.0% 30.8% 49.3% +0.8 13
2012-12-29 @ Airdrie United D 1-1 1423 1270 49.3% 30.8% 20.0% -0.8 33
2013-01-02 Cowdenbeath D 1-1 1271 1283 36.4% 33.8% 29.8% -0.2 14
2013-01-02 @ Airdrie United D 1-1 1283 1271 29.8% 33.8% 36.4% +0.2 16
2013-01-02 Dumbarton L 0-3 1351 1326 41.6% 33.1% 25.3% -15.9 35
2013-01-02 @ Greenock Morton W 3-0 1326 1351 25.3% 33.1% 41.6% +15.9 11
2013-01-02 Raith Rovers W 1-0 1404 1331 48.1% 31.2% 20.7% +3.5 33
2013-01-02 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-1 1331 1404 20.7% 31.2% 48.1% -3.5 22
2013-01-05 Airdrie United W 2-0 1327 1271 45.8% 32.0% 22.2% +6.9 25
2013-01-05 @ Raith Rovers L 0-2 1271 1327 22.2% 32.0% 45.8% -6.9 14
2013-01-05 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-1 1342 1407 28.9% 33.7% 37.4% -4.5 11
2013-01-05 @ Dumbarton W 1-0 1407 1342 37.4% 33.7% 28.9% +4.5 36
2013-01-05 Falkirk D 1-1 1322 1354 33.5% 34.0% 32.6% -0.0 17
2013-01-05 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-1 1354 1322 32.6% 34.0% 33.5% +0.0 24
2013-01-05 Greenock Morton D 1-1 1283 1335 30.7% 33.9% 35.4% +0.1 17
2013-01-05 @ Cowdenbeath D 1-1 1335 1283 35.4% 33.9% 30.7% -0.1 36
2013-01-05 Partick Thistle D 2-2 1354 1422 28.6% 33.7% 37.7% +0.2 24
2013-01-05 @ Livingston D 2-2 1422 1354 37.7% 33.7% 28.6% -0.2 34
2013-01-12 Airdrie United L 1-3 1412 1264 57.6% 26.8% 15.6% -12.0 36
2013-01-12 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 3-1 1264 1412 15.6% 26.8% 57.6% +12.0 17
2013-01-12 Cowdenbeath W 2-1 1322 1283 43.4% 32.6% 23.9% +3.7 20
2013-01-12 @ Hamilton Academical L 1-2 1283 1322 23.9% 32.6% 43.4% -3.7 17
2013-01-12 Greenock Morton L 0-1 1354 1335 40.7% 33.2% 26.1% -5.7 24
2013-01-12 @ Falkirk W 1-0 1335 1354 26.1% 33.2% 40.7% +5.7 39
2013-01-12 Partick Thistle W 2-0 1337 1422 26.6% 33.4% 40.1% +10.7 14
2013-01-12 @ Dumbarton L 0-2 1422 1337 40.1% 33.4% 26.6% -10.7 34
2013-01-12 Raith Rovers W 2-1 1354 1334 40.9% 33.2% 25.9% +3.9 27
2013-01-12 @ Livingston L 1-2 1334 1354 25.9% 33.2% 40.9% -3.9 25
2013-01-19 Dumbarton L 1-2 1276 1348 28.1% 33.6% 38.2% -4.2 17
2013-01-19 @ Airdrie United W 2-1 1348 1276 38.2% 33.6% 28.1% +4.2 17
2013-01-19 Falkirk W 4-1 1411 1348 46.8% 31.7% 21.6% +8.3 37
2013-01-19 @ Partick Thistle L 1-4 1348 1411 21.6% 31.7% 46.8% -8.3 24
2013-01-19 Hamilton Academical L 0-2 1330 1326 38.7% 33.6% 27.7% -10.4 25
2013-01-19 @ Raith Rovers W 2-0 1326 1330 27.7% 33.6% 38.7% +10.4 23
2013-01-19 Livingston W 2-1 1341 1358 35.5% 33.9% 30.6% +4.4 42
2013-01-19 @ Greenock Morton L 1-2 1358 1341 30.6% 33.9% 35.5% -4.4 27
2013-01-26 Airdrie United W 4-3 1340 1272 47.4% 31.4% 21.2% +3.1 27
2013-01-26 @ Falkirk L 3-4 1272 1340 21.2% 31.4% 47.4% -3.1 17
2013-01-26 Cowdenbeath W 2-1 1419 1279 56.6% 27.4% 16.0% +2.5 40
2013-01-26 @ Partick Thistle L 1-2 1279 1419 16.0% 27.4% 56.6% -2.5 17
2013-01-26 Hamilton Academical W 3-1 1352 1336 40.3% 33.3% 26.4% +6.9 20
2013-01-26 @ Dumbarton L 1-3 1336 1352 26.4% 33.3% 40.3% -6.9 23
2013-01-26 Livingston L 0-1 1400 1354 44.4% 32.4% 23.2% -6.1 36
2013-01-26 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-0 1354 1400 23.2% 32.4% 44.4% +6.1 30
2013-01-26 Raith Rovers W 1-0 1345 1320 41.6% 33.1% 25.4% +4.1 45
2013-01-26 @ Greenock Morton L 0-1 1320 1345 25.4% 33.1% 41.6% -4.1 25
2013-02-02 Livingston L 3-4 1359 1360 37.9% 33.7% 28.5% -4.7 20
2013-02-02 @ Dumbarton W 4-3 1360 1359 28.5% 33.7% 37.9% +4.7 33
2013-02-09 Dumbarton L 2-3 1365 1354 39.6% 33.4% 27.0% -5.0 33
2013-02-09 @ Livingston W 3-2 1354 1365 27.0% 33.4% 39.6% +5.0 23
2013-02-09 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-2 1329 1394 29.0% 33.7% 37.3% -4.3 23
2013-02-09 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-1 1394 1329 37.3% 33.7% 29.0% +4.3 39
2013-02-09 Falkirk W 4-1 1277 1343 28.9% 33.7% 37.4% +12.4 20
2013-02-09 @ Cowdenbeath L 1-4 1343 1277 37.4% 33.7% 28.9% -12.4 27
2013-02-09 Greenock Morton L 0-4 1269 1349 27.1% 33.5% 39.5% -15.4 17
2013-02-09 @ Airdrie United W 4-0 1349 1269 39.5% 33.5% 27.1% +15.4 48
2013-02-12 Dunfermline Athletic W 4-2 1289 1398 24.0% 32.6% 43.4% +8.7 23
2013-02-12 @ Cowdenbeath L 2-4 1398 1289 43.4% 32.6% 24.0% -8.7 39
2013-02-16 Cowdenbeath W 3-0 1360 1298 46.5% 31.7% 21.7% +9.9 36
2013-02-16 @ Livingston L 0-3 1298 1360 21.7% 31.7% 46.5% -9.9 23
2013-02-16 Dumbarton W 3-2 1316 1359 31.9% 33.9% 34.2% +4.5 28
2013-02-16 @ Raith Rovers L 2-3 1359 1316 34.2% 33.9% 31.9% -4.5 23
2013-02-16 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-0 1330 1389 29.8% 33.8% 36.4% +5.3 30
2013-02-16 @ Falkirk L 0-1 1389 1330 36.4% 33.8% 29.8% -5.3 39
2013-02-16 Hamilton Academical D 2-2 1253 1325 28.2% 33.6% 38.2% +0.2 18
2013-02-16 @ Airdrie United D 2-2 1325 1253 38.2% 33.6% 28.2% -0.2 24
2013-02-16 Partick Thistle D 2-2 1365 1422 30.0% 33.8% 36.2% +0.1 49
2013-02-16 @ Greenock Morton D 2-2 1422 1365 36.2% 33.8% 30.0% -0.1 41
2013-02-19 Hamilton Academical W 1-0 1422 1325 51.2% 29.9% 18.8% +3.2 44
2013-02-19 @ Partick Thistle L 0-1 1325 1422 18.8% 29.9% 51.2% -3.1 24
2013-02-19 Livingston W 2-0 1336 1370 33.2% 34.0% 32.8% +9.3 33
2013-02-19 @ Falkirk L 0-2 1370 1336 32.8% 34.0% 33.2% -9.3 36
2013-02-23 Airdrie United W 1-0 1425 1254 60.5% 25.2% 14.3% +2.3 47
2013-02-23 @ Partick Thistle L 0-1 1254 1425 14.3% 25.2% 60.5% -2.3 18
2013-02-23 Falkirk L 0-2 1354 1345 39.4% 33.5% 27.2% -10.5 23
2013-02-23 @ Dumbarton W 2-0 1345 1354 27.2% 33.5% 39.4% +10.5 36
2013-02-23 Greenock Morton L 1-4 1384 1365 40.8% 33.2% 26.0% -13.2 39
2013-02-23 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 4-1 1365 1384 26.0% 33.2% 40.8% +13.2 52
2013-02-23 Livingston D 1-1 1321 1360 32.5% 34.0% 33.6% +0.0 25
2013-02-23 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-1 1360 1321 33.6% 34.0% 32.5% -0.0 37
2013-02-23 Raith Rovers D 1-1 1288 1320 33.5% 34.0% 32.6% -0.0 24
2013-02-23 @ Cowdenbeath D 1-1 1320 1288 32.6% 34.0% 33.5% +0.0 29
2013-03-02 Airdrie United W 4-1 1360 1251 52.7% 29.3% 18.0% +6.9 40
2013-03-02 @ Livingston L 1-4 1251 1360 18.0% 29.3% 52.7% -6.9 18
2013-03-02 Cowdenbeath D 2-2 1344 1288 45.8% 32.0% 22.3% -0.5 24
2013-03-02 @ Dumbarton D 2-2 1288 1344 22.3% 32.0% 45.8% +0.5 25
2013-03-02 Partick Thistle L 0-4 1371 1427 30.1% 33.8% 36.1% -16.6 39
2013-03-02 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 4-0 1427 1371 36.1% 33.8% 30.1% +16.6 50
2013-03-05 Greenock Morton W 2-1 1321 1378 30.1% 33.8% 36.1% +4.9 28
2013-03-05 @ Hamilton Academical L 1-2 1378 1321 36.1% 33.8% 30.1% -5.0 52
2013-03-05 Raith Rovers D 1-1 1356 1320 43.0% 32.8% 24.3% -0.5 37
2013-03-05 @ Falkirk D 1-1 1320 1356 24.3% 32.8% 43.0% +0.5 30
2013-03-09 Dumbarton W 3-0 1444 1343 51.6% 29.8% 18.6% +8.5 53
2013-03-09 @ Partick Thistle L 0-3 1343 1444 18.6% 29.8% 51.6% -8.5 24
2013-03-09 Dunfermline Athletic D 3-3 1244 1354 23.8% 32.6% 43.6% +0.3 19
2013-03-09 @ Airdrie United D 3-3 1354 1244 43.6% 32.6% 23.8% -0.3 40
2013-03-09 Falkirk W 2-0 1373 1355 40.6% 33.3% 26.2% +7.9 55
2013-03-09 @ Greenock Morton L 0-2 1355 1373 26.2% 33.3% 40.6% -7.9 37
2013-03-09 Hamilton Academical D 1-1 1289 1326 32.7% 34.0% 33.4% +0.0 26
2013-03-09 @ Cowdenbeath D 1-1 1326 1289 33.4% 34.0% 32.7% -0.0 29
2013-03-09 Livingston L 0-2 1321 1367 31.4% 33.9% 34.6% -9.0 30
2013-03-09 @ Raith Rovers W 2-0 1367 1321 34.6% 33.9% 31.4% +9.0 43
2013-03-16 Airdrie United W 3-2 1289 1245 44.2% 32.4% 23.4% +3.4 29
2013-03-16 @ Cowdenbeath L 2-3 1245 1289 23.4% 32.4% 44.2% -3.4 19
2013-03-16 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-1 1312 1354 32.0% 33.9% 34.0% +0.0 31
2013-03-16 @ Raith Rovers D 1-1 1354 1312 34.0% 33.9% 32.0% -0.1 41
2013-03-16 Greenock Morton L 0-3 1335 1381 31.5% 33.9% 34.6% -13.1 24
2013-03-16 @ Dumbarton W 3-0 1381 1335 34.6% 33.9% 31.5% +13.1 58
2013-03-16 Partick Thistle L 0-2 1326 1452 22.3% 32.0% 45.8% -6.9 29
2013-03-16 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-0 1452 1326 45.8% 32.0% 22.3% +6.9 56
2013-03-23 Cowdenbeath W 4-2 1394 1292 51.8% 29.7% 18.5% +4.5 61
2013-03-23 @ Greenock Morton L 2-4 1292 1394 18.5% 29.7% 51.8% -4.5 29
2013-03-23 Dumbarton L 3-4 1354 1322 42.5% 32.9% 24.6% -5.1 41
2013-03-23 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 4-3 1322 1354 24.6% 32.9% 42.5% +5.1 27
2013-03-23 Hamilton Academical L 0-2 1347 1319 41.9% 33.0% 25.1% -11.0 37
2013-03-23 @ Falkirk W 2-0 1319 1347 25.1% 33.0% 41.9% +11.0 32
2013-03-23 Livingston W 6-1 1459 1376 49.4% 30.7% 19.9% +12.2 59
2013-03-23 @ Partick Thistle L 1-6 1376 1459 19.9% 30.7% 49.4% -12.1 43
2013-03-23 Raith Rovers L 1-2 1241 1312 28.3% 33.6% 38.1% -4.2 19
2013-03-23 @ Airdrie United W 2-1 1312 1241 38.1% 33.6% 28.3% +4.2 34
2013-03-27 Falkirk L 0-2 1349 1336 39.8% 33.4% 26.8% -10.6 41
2013-03-27 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-0 1336 1349 26.8% 33.4% 39.8% +10.6 40
2013-03-27 Partick Thistle L 0-3 1288 1472 17.7% 29.0% 53.3% -8.1 29
2013-03-27 @ Cowdenbeath W 3-0 1472 1288 53.3% 29.0% 17.7% +8.1 62
2013-03-27 Raith Rovers W 4-2 1327 1316 39.6% 33.4% 27.0% +6.3 30
2013-03-27 @ Dumbarton L 2-4 1316 1327 27.0% 33.4% 39.6% -6.3 34
2013-03-30 Dumbarton L 2-3 1330 1333 37.6% 33.7% 28.7% -4.8 32
2013-03-30 @ Hamilton Academical W 3-2 1333 1330 28.7% 33.7% 37.6% +4.8 33
2013-03-30 Dunfermline Athletic D 2-2 1364 1338 41.7% 33.0% 25.3% -0.3 44
2013-03-30 @ Livingston D 2-2 1338 1364 25.3% 33.0% 41.7% +0.3 42
2013-03-30 Falkirk L 0-1 1237 1347 23.9% 32.6% 43.5% -3.9 19
2013-03-30 @ Airdrie United W 1-0 1347 1237 43.5% 32.6% 23.9% +3.9 43
2013-03-30 Greenock Morton W 2-1 1310 1399 26.1% 33.2% 40.6% +5.4 37
2013-03-30 @ Raith Rovers L 1-2 1399 1310 40.6% 33.2% 26.1% -5.4 61
2013-03-30 Partick Thistle L 1-2 1280 1480 16.6% 28.0% 55.4% -2.6 29
2013-03-30 @ Cowdenbeath W 2-1 1480 1280 55.4% 28.0% 16.6% +2.6 65
2013-04-02 Dumbarton W 2-1 1326 1338 36.3% 33.8% 29.9% +4.4 35
2013-04-02 @ Hamilton Academical L 1-2 1338 1326 29.9% 33.8% 36.3% -4.4 33
2013-04-02 Falkirk L 1-2 1364 1351 39.9% 33.4% 26.7% -5.3 44
2013-04-02 @ Livingston W 2-1 1351 1364 26.7% 33.4% 39.9% +5.3 46
2013-04-02 Partick Thistle D 0-0 1315 1482 18.9% 30.0% 51.2% +1.0 38
2013-04-02 @ Raith Rovers D 0-0 1482 1315 51.2% 30.0% 18.9% -1.0 66
2013-04-06 Airdrie United W 5-2 1393 1233 59.1% 26.0% 14.9% +4.9 64
2013-04-06 @ Greenock Morton L 2-5 1233 1393 14.9% 26.0% 59.1% -4.8 19
2013-04-06 Cowdenbeath W 4-0 1356 1277 48.8% 30.9% 20.2% +12.1 49
2013-04-06 @ Falkirk L 0-4 1277 1356 20.2% 30.9% 48.8% -12.1 29
2013-04-06 Hamilton Academical L 2-3 1338 1330 39.2% 33.5% 27.3% -5.0 42
2013-04-06 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 3-2 1330 1338 27.3% 33.5% 39.2% +5.0 38
2013-04-06 Livingston L 0-3 1334 1358 34.5% 33.9% 31.6% -14.0 33
2013-04-06 @ Dumbarton W 3-0 1358 1334 31.6% 33.9% 34.5% +14.0 47
2013-04-09 Airdrie United W 5-0 1335 1228 52.4% 29.4% 18.1% +13.4 41
2013-04-09 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-5 1228 1335 18.1% 29.4% 52.4% -13.4 19
2013-04-09 Livingston D 2-2 1265 1372 24.1% 32.7% 43.2% +0.4 30
2013-04-09 @ Cowdenbeath D 2-2 1372 1265 43.2% 32.7% 24.1% -0.4 48
2013-04-09 Raith Rovers L 1-2 1320 1316 38.6% 33.6% 27.9% -5.2 33
2013-04-09 @ Dumbarton W 2-1 1316 1320 27.9% 33.6% 38.6% +5.2 41
2013-04-10 Greenock Morton W 1-0 1481 1398 49.4% 30.7% 19.9% +3.3 69
2013-04-10 @ Partick Thistle L 0-1 1398 1481 19.9% 30.7% 49.4% -3.3 64
2013-04-13 Cowdenbeath L 0-1 1321 1265 45.8% 32.0% 22.2% -6.2 41
2013-04-13 @ Raith Rovers W 1-0 1265 1321 22.2% 32.0% 45.8% +6.2 33
2013-04-13 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-1 1395 1333 46.5% 31.8% 21.8% -6.3 64
2013-04-13 @ Greenock Morton W 1-0 1333 1395 21.8% 31.8% 46.5% +6.3 45
2013-04-13 Hamilton Academical L 0-3 1372 1348 41.4% 33.1% 25.5% -15.8 48
2013-04-13 @ Livingston W 3-0 1348 1372 25.5% 33.1% 41.4% +15.8 44
2013-04-13 Partick Thistle L 1-2 1215 1484 13.0% 23.3% 63.7% -1.9 19
2013-04-13 @ Airdrie United W 2-1 1484 1215 63.7% 23.3% 13.0% +1.9 72
2013-04-16 Dumbarton L 1-3 1368 1315 45.5% 32.1% 22.5% -10.1 49
2013-04-16 @ Falkirk W 3-1 1315 1368 22.5% 32.1% 45.5% +10.1 36
2013-04-16 Hamilton Academical D 0-0 1356 1364 36.9% 33.8% 29.3% -0.2 49
2013-04-16 @ Livingston D 0-0 1364 1356 29.3% 33.8% 36.9% +0.2 45
2013-04-16 Raith Rovers D 0-0 1486 1315 60.4% 25.2% 14.3% -1.5 73
2013-04-16 @ Partick Thistle D 0-0 1315 1486 14.3% 25.2% 60.4% +1.5 42
2013-04-20 Airdrie United W 4-1 1325 1213 53.1% 29.1% 17.8% +6.9 39
2013-04-20 @ Dumbarton L 1-4 1213 1325 17.8% 29.1% 53.1% -6.9 19
2013-04-20 Cowdenbeath W 1-0 1340 1272 47.4% 31.4% 21.1% +3.5 48
2013-04-20 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-1 1272 1340 21.1% 31.4% 47.4% -3.5 33
2013-04-20 Greenock Morton L 0-2 1356 1388 33.4% 34.0% 32.6% -9.4 49
2013-04-20 @ Livingston W 2-0 1388 1356 32.6% 34.0% 33.4% +9.4 67
2013-04-20 Partick Thistle L 0-2 1358 1485 22.2% 31.9% 45.9% -6.9 49
2013-04-20 @ Falkirk W 2-0 1485 1358 45.9% 31.9% 22.2% +6.9 76
2013-04-20 Raith Rovers W 2-0 1364 1317 44.7% 32.3% 23.0% +7.1 48
2013-04-20 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-2 1317 1364 23.0% 32.3% 44.7% -7.2 42
2013-04-27 Dumbarton L 2-3 1268 1332 29.2% 33.8% 37.1% -4.1 33
2013-04-27 @ Cowdenbeath W 3-2 1332 1268 37.1% 33.8% 29.2% +4.1 42
2013-04-27 Dunfermline Athletic D 3-3 1492 1343 57.7% 26.8% 15.5% -0.8 77
2013-04-27 @ Partick Thistle D 3-3 1343 1492 15.5% 26.8% 57.7% +0.8 49
2013-04-27 Falkirk D 0-0 1310 1351 32.1% 33.9% 33.9% +0.1 43
2013-04-27 @ Raith Rovers D 0-0 1351 1310 33.9% 33.9% 32.1% -0.0 50
2013-04-27 Hamilton Academical L 0-2 1398 1371 41.7% 33.0% 25.2% -11.0 67
2013-04-27 @ Greenock Morton W 2-0 1371 1398 25.2% 33.0% 41.7% +11.0 51
2013-04-27 Livingston L 0-2 1206 1347 21.0% 31.4% 47.7% -6.6 19
2013-04-27 @ Airdrie United W 2-0 1347 1206 47.7% 31.4% 21.0% +6.6 52
2013-05-04 Airdrie United L 1-2 1344 1200 57.2% 27.1% 15.8% -6.9 49
2013-05-04 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-1 1200 1344 15.8% 27.1% 57.2% +6.9 22
2013-05-04 Cowdenbeath L 1-3 1382 1264 53.9% 28.7% 17.3% -11.4 51
2013-05-04 @ Hamilton Academical W 3-1 1264 1382 17.3% 28.7% 53.9% +11.4 36
2013-05-04 Greenock Morton W 4-1 1351 1387 32.9% 34.0% 33.1% +11.5 53
2013-05-04 @ Falkirk L 1-4 1387 1351 33.1% 34.0% 32.9% -11.4 67
2013-05-04 Partick Thistle D 0-0 1336 1491 19.7% 30.6% 49.6% +1.0 43
2013-05-04 @ Dumbarton D 0-0 1491 1336 49.6% 30.6% 19.7% -1.0 78
2013-05-04 Raith Rovers L 2-3 1353 1310 44.1% 32.5% 23.4% -5.4 52
2013-05-04 @ Livingston W 3-2 1310 1353 23.4% 32.5% 44.1% +5.4 46

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2012-08-18 13.87% Cowdenbeath 1271 3 @ Dumbarton 1451 0
2 2013-01-12 15.57% Airdrie United 1264 3 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1412 1
3 2013-05-04 15.76% Airdrie United 1200 2 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1344 1
4 2013-05-04 17.34% Cowdenbeath 1264 3 @ Hamilton Academical 1382 1
5 2012-12-26 19.18% Greenock Morton 1337 2 @ Partick Thistle 1429 1
6 2012-09-01 19.97% Cowdenbeath 1297 3 @ Airdrie United 1379 0
7 2012-09-01 20.43% @ Greenock Morton 1268 3 Dumbarton 1415 0
8 2012-12-26 21.38% Falkirk 1353 1 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1418 0
9 2013-04-13 21.76% Dunfermline Athletic 1333 1 @ Greenock Morton 1395 0
10 2012-10-06 22.19% Hamilton Academical 1290 4 @ Airdrie United 1346 0
11 2013-04-13 22.23% Cowdenbeath 1265 1 @ Raith Rovers 1321 0
12 2012-09-29 22.30% Greenock Morton 1296 3 @ Airdrie United 1352 2
13 2013-04-16 22.48% Dumbarton 1315 3 @ Falkirk 1368 1
14 2012-10-27 22.94% Airdrie United 1302 4 @ Dumbarton 1351 3
15 2012-11-16 23.03% @ Hamilton Academical 1308 1 Partick Thistle 1426 0
16 2013-01-26 23.19% Livingston 1354 1 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1400 0
17 2012-11-17 23.43% Greenock Morton 1307 5 @ Dumbarton 1350 1
18 2013-05-04 23.43% Raith Rovers 1310 3 @ Livingston 1353 2
19 2012-12-29 23.94% Dumbarton 1320 4 @ Falkirk 1359 3
20 2013-02-12 23.96% @ Cowdenbeath 1289 4 Dunfermline Athletic 1398 2
21 2012-10-20 24.30% Falkirk 1327 2 @ Dumbarton 1362 0
22 2012-08-11 24.52% @ Airdrie United 1361 4 Dumbarton 1465 1
23 2013-03-23 24.62% Dumbarton 1322 4 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1354 3
24 2012-09-15 25.00% Greenock Morton 1286 4 @ Cowdenbeath 1315 3
25 2012-10-06 25.01% @ Greenock Morton 1302 3 Partick Thistle 1401 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2012-09-29 24.00 @ Livingston 5 1316 28.33% Dumbarton 0 1386 38.01% 33.65%
2 2012-10-06 22.27 Hamilton Academical 4 1290 22.19% @ Airdrie United 0 1346 45.86% 31.95%
3 2012-10-20 21.41 @ Partick Thistle 7 1391 47.28% Airdrie United 0 1324 21.23% 31.48%
4 2012-08-18 21.02 Cowdenbeath 3 1271 13.87% @ Dumbarton 0 1451 61.51% 24.62%
5 2012-11-17 18.04 Greenock Morton 5 1307 23.43% @ Dumbarton 1 1350 44.11% 32.46%
6 2012-09-01 17.97 Cowdenbeath 3 1297 19.97% @ Airdrie United 0 1379 49.27% 30.75%
7 2012-09-01 17.77 @ Greenock Morton 3 1268 20.43% Dumbarton 0 1415 48.54% 31.03%
8 2013-03-02 16.62 Partick Thistle 4 1427 36.08% @ Dunfermline Athletic 0 1371 30.08% 33.84%
9 2012-08-11 16.10 Dunfermline Athletic 4 1354 37.53% @ Cowdenbeath 0 1287 28.76% 33.71%
10 2013-01-02 15.89 Dumbarton 3 1326 25.34% @ Greenock Morton 0 1351 41.60% 33.06%
11 2013-04-13 15.82 Hamilton Academical 3 1348 25.52% @ Livingston 0 1372 41.37% 33.11%
12 2013-02-09 15.41 Greenock Morton 4 1349 39.47% @ Airdrie United 0 1269 27.08% 33.45%
13 2012-08-25 14.67 @ Partick Thistle 3 1366 29.12% Dumbarton 0 1430 37.13% 33.75%
14 2013-04-06 13.96 Livingston 3 1358 31.55% @ Dumbarton 0 1334 34.52% 33.93%
15 2012-08-11 13.64 @ Airdrie United 4 1361 24.52% Dumbarton 1 1465 42.66% 32.83%
16 2012-11-10 13.53 @ Partick Thistle 5 1412 37.16% Dunfermline Athletic 1 1418 29.10% 33.75%
17 2013-04-09 13.38 @ Hamilton Academical 5 1335 52.44% Airdrie United 0 1228 18.15% 29.41%
18 2013-02-23 13.20 Greenock Morton 4 1365 26.01% @ Dunfermline Athletic 1 1384 40.76% 33.23%
19 2013-03-16 13.13 Greenock Morton 3 1381 34.58% @ Dumbarton 0 1335 31.50% 33.92%
20 2012-09-22 13.09 @ Dunfermline Athletic 4 1387 46.01% Livingston 0 1329 22.09% 31.90%
21 2012-09-01 12.60 @ Partick Thistle 4 1381 47.39% Hamilton Academical 0 1313 21.16% 31.45%
22 2013-02-09 12.44 @ Cowdenbeath 4 1277 28.86% Falkirk 1 1343 37.42% 33.72%
23 2013-03-23 12.15 @ Partick Thistle 6 1459 49.40% Livingston 1 1376 19.90% 30.70%
24 2013-04-06 12.09 @ Falkirk 4 1356 48.84% Cowdenbeath 0 1277 20.24% 30.92%
25 2012-11-24 12.05 @ Dunfermline Athletic 4 1412 48.97% Dumbarton 0 1332 20.16% 30.87%