2011-12 First Division Season

180 games

Final

Promoted

—

No promotions.

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Ross County

21.63 points above expected

79 points · 57.37 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Queen Of The South

11.33 points below expected

32 points · 43.33 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Ross County	36	22	13	1	79	72	32	+40	57.37	+21.63
2	Dundee	36	15	10	11	55	53	43	+10	59.44	-4.44
3	Falkirk	36	13	13	10	52	53	48	+5	56.09	-4.09
4	Hamilton Academical	36	14	7	15	49	55	56	-1	51.05	-2.05
5	Livingston	36	13	9	14	48	56	54	+2	53.14	-5.14
6	Partick Thistle	36	12	11	13	47	50	39	+11	53.55	-6.55
7	Raith Rovers	36	11	11	14	44	46	49	-3	45.12	-1.12
8	Greenock Morton	36	10	12	14	42	40	55	-15	39.87	+2.13
9	Ayr United	36	9	11	16	38	44	67	-23	35.05	+2.95
10	Queen Of The South	36	7	11	18	32	38	64	-26	43.33	-11.33

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Ross County	1500	79	57.37	+21.63	99.8%	31	45	52	57	63	70	87
Dundee	1402	55	59.44	-4.44	30.9%	31	47	54	59	65	72	87
Partick Thistle	1390	47	53.55	-6.55	21.9%	21	41	48	53	59	66	86
Falkirk	1377	52	56.09	-4.09	32.5%	29	43	51	56	61	69	83
Livingston	1364	48	53.14	-5.14	27.0%	25	40	48	53	58	66	82
Hamilton Academical	1348	49	51.05	-2.05	42.4%	20	38	46	51	56	64	85
Raith Rovers	1329	44	45.12	-1.12	46.9%	13	33	40	45	50	58	79
Greenock Morton	1260	42	39.87	+2.13	64.3%	13	28	35	40	45	52	66
Ayr United	1243	38	35.05	+2.95	69.0%	11	24	30	35	40	47	62
Queen Of The South	1240	32	43.33	-11.33	7.2%	18	31	38	43	48	56	77

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AU	DUN	FAL	GM	HA	LIV	PT	QOTS	RR	RC
Ayr United	—	1-1-2 3.33	1-2-1 3.41	0-1-3 5.06	1-1-2 3.84	3-1-0 3.55	0-1-3 3.75	1-1-2 4.48	2-2-0 4.36	0-1-3 3.22
Dundee	2-1-1 7.72	—	2-1-1 5.89	2-0-2 7.48	1-1-2 6.41	3-0-1 6.20	1-1-2 6.18	1-3-0 7.11	3-1-0 6.73	0-2-2 5.60
Falkirk	1-2-1 7.65	1-1-2 5.05	—	1-1-2 7.22	3-1-0 5.89	2-1-1 5.76	1-3-0 5.73	3-1-0 6.71	1-1-2 6.55	0-2-2 5.62
Greenock Morton	3-1-0 5.89	2-0-2 3.55	2-1-1 3.80	—	1-0-3 4.42	1-2-1 4.05	1-1-2 4.15	0-2-2 5.18	0-2-2 4.96	0-3-1 3.70
Hamilton Academical	2-1-1 7.17	2-1-1 4.55	0-1-3 5.06	3-0-1 6.55	—	1-1-2 5.12	1-2-1 5.18	3-0-1 6.30	1-1-2 6.28	1-0-3 4.89
Livingston	0-1-3 7.47	1-0-3 4.75	1-1-2 5.19	1-2-1 6.94	2-1-1 5.83	—	3-0-1 5.27	2-2-0 6.32	3-1-0 6.23	0-1-3 5.16
Partick Thistle	3-1-0 7.26	2-1-1 4.78	0-3-1 5.22	2-1-1 6.83	1-2-1 5.76	1-0-3 5.67	—	3-1-0 6.27	0-1-3 6.62	0-1-3 5.17
Queen Of The South	2-1-1 6.48	0-3-1 3.90	0-1-3 4.26	2-2-0 5.76	1-0-3 4.66	0-2-2 4.64	0-1-3 4.69	—	2-0-2 5.10	0-1-3 3.93
Raith Rovers	0-2-2 6.61	0-1-3 4.25	2-1-1 4.41	2-2-0 5.99	2-1-1 4.68	0-1-3 4.73	3-1-0 4.35	2-0-2 5.85	—	0-2-2 4.28
Ross County	3-1-0 7.87	2-2-0 5.35	2-2-0 5.33	1-3-0 7.35	3-0-1 6.09	3-1-0 5.80	3-1-0 5.79	3-1-0 7.11	2-2-0 6.73	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.89	+12.2
Allowed	0.69	-9.7
Differential	0.91	+6.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.78%	8.89%	3.06%	2.78%	1.39%	0.83%	24.72%
1	8.89%	14.44%	6.67%	4.17%	1.11%	1.11%	36.39%
2	3.06%	6.67%	7.78%	2.78%	1.11%	0.28%	21.67%
3	2.78%	4.17%	2.78%	—	0.56%	0.28%	10.56%
4	1.39%	1.11%	1.11%	0.56%	—	—	4.17%
5+	0.83%	1.11%	0.28%	0.28%	—	—	2.50%
Total	24.72%	36.39%	21.67%	10.56%	4.17%	2.50%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.41	1.41	+0.00
SD	1.23	1.23	1.76
CV	0.88	0.88	—
Max	6	6	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	2.78%	—	—	5.56%	—	19.44%
1	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	8.33%	—	47.22%
2	—	5.56%	8.33%	8.33%	2.78%	—	25.00%
3	—	2.78%	5.56%	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	22.22%	19.44%	19.44%	16.67%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	1.86	-0.64
SD	0.87	1.42	1.53
CV	0.71	0.76	—
Max	3	4	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
1	13.89%	19.44%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	41.67%
2	2.78%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	—	16.67%
3	2.78%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	25.00%	47.22%	13.89%	11.11%	2.78%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.47	1.19	+0.28
SD	1.36	1.04	1.67
CV	0.93	0.87	—
Max	6	4	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	—	19.44%
1	11.11%	16.67%	2.78%	5.56%	—	—	36.11%
2	2.78%	8.33%	8.33%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	30.56%
3	5.56%	—	2.78%	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	—	2.78%	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	30.56%	33.33%	16.67%	13.89%	2.78%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.47	1.33	+0.14
SD	1.16	1.29	1.48
CV	0.79	0.97	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.89%	2.78%	8.33%	—	—	5.56%	30.56%
1	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	2.78%	—	41.67%
2	2.78%	5.56%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	2.78%	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	8.33%
4	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	25.00%	30.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.11	1.53	-0.42
SD	1.04	1.40	1.71
CV	0.93	0.92	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	16.67%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	27.78%
1	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
2	2.78%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	30.56%
3	2.78%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	2.78%	—	—	2.78%	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	16.67%	41.67%	25.00%	11.11%	—	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.53	1.56	-0.03
SD	1.32	1.32	1.92
CV	0.86	0.85	—
Max	5	6	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	8.33%	2.78%	—	22.22%
1	8.33%	13.89%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	38.89%
2	2.78%	2.78%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	13.89%
3	2.78%	5.56%	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	13.89%
4	5.56%	—	2.78%	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	25.00%	27.78%	25.00%	16.67%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	1.50	+0.06
SD	1.36	1.21	1.93
CV	0.88	0.80	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	16.67%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	33.33%
1	5.56%	11.11%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	27.78%
2	2.78%	8.33%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	22.22%
3	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	30.56%	38.89%	22.22%	8.33%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.39	1.08	+0.31
SD	1.44	0.94	1.82
CV	1.04	0.87	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	8.33%	5.56%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	36.11%
1	5.56%	8.33%	11.11%	8.33%	—	2.78%	36.11%
2	2.78%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	19.44%
3	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%	2.78%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	19.44%	27.78%	27.78%	13.89%	2.78%	8.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.06	1.78	-0.72
SD	1.09	1.44	1.80
CV	1.04	0.81	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	19.44%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	—	30.56%
1	5.56%	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	2.78%	5.56%	8.33%	—	2.78%	—	19.44%
3	—	8.33%	5.56%	—	—	—	13.89%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	11.11%	55.56%	25.00%	2.78%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.28	1.36	-0.08
SD	1.21	0.93	1.63
CV	0.95	0.68	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	11.11%	25.00%	—	—	—	2.78%	38.89%
2	8.33%	8.33%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	11.11%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	—	5.56%
Total	38.89%	44.44%	11.11%	2.78%	—	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	0.89	+1.11
SD	1.26	1.04	1.51
CV	0.63	1.17	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Ross County	79	57.37	+21.63
2	Ayr United	38	35.05	+2.95
3	Greenock Morton	42	39.87	+2.13
4	Raith Rovers	44	45.12	-1.12
5	Hamilton Academical	49	51.05	-2.05

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Queen Of The South	32	43.33	-11.33
2	Partick Thistle	47	53.55	-6.55
3	Livingston	48	53.14	-5.14
4	Dundee	55	59.44	-4.44
5	Falkirk	52	56.09	-4.09

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Ross County	9	Sep 24 – Dec 3	1 in 7,617
2	Dundee	5	Nov 5 – Dec 10	1 in 59
3	Ayr United	2	Mar 3 – Mar 6	1 in 24
4	Hamilton Academical	3	Mar 17 – Mar 24	1 in 24
5	Raith Rovers	3	Apr 21 – May 5	1 in 20

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Falkirk	4	Mar 17 – Apr 7	1 in 98
2	Raith Rovers	4	Oct 22 – Nov 12	1 in 58
3	Livingston	3	Feb 25 – Mar 6	1 in 47
4	Dundee	3	Apr 14 – Apr 28	1 in 43
5	Queen Of The South	4	Dec 10 – Jan 2	1 in 26

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Ross County	34	Aug 20 – May 5	1 in 219,768
2	Falkirk	11	Dec 3 – Feb 25	1 in 41
3	Livingston	9	Aug 20 – Oct 29	1 in 30
4	Ayr United	4	Jan 14 – Feb 18	1 in 25
5	Dundee	9	Jan 2 – Mar 17	1 in 19

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Falkirk	6	Mar 3 – Apr 7	1 in 40
2	Dundee	5	Jan 21 – Feb 25	1 in 20
3	Raith Rovers	7	Dec 26 – Feb 21	1 in 14
4	Ayr United	9	Nov 30 – Feb 21	1 in 12
5	Hamilton Academical	5	Nov 12 – Dec 26	1 in 8

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Ross County	23.58%	20.65%	16.69%	13.70%	10.09%	7.00%	4.50%	2.35%	1.20%	0.24%
Dundee	31.25%	21.69%	15.84%	11.63%	8.49%	5.94%	2.99%	1.48%	0.59%	0.10%
Falkirk	16.86%	17.81%	16.99%	14.86%	12.25%	9.47%	6.11%	3.66%	1.69%	0.30%
Hamilton Academical	6.17%	8.95%	11.49%	13.60%	14.91%	15.57%	12.91%	9.10%	5.57%	1.73%
Livingston	9.24%	12.31%	13.95%	15.80%	15.63%	13.25%	9.89%	5.70%	3.24%	0.99%
Partick Thistle	10.83%	13.40%	15.80%	15.00%	14.18%	12.09%	9.01%	5.68%	3.08%	0.93%
Raith Rovers	1.22%	2.89%	4.62%	7.29%	10.42%	13.96%	18.30%	19.02%	14.33%	7.95%
Greenock Morton	0.21%	0.66%	1.37%	2.48%	4.71%	7.61%	12.84%	20.21%	26.78%	23.13%
Ayr United	0.03%	0.10%	0.31%	0.61%	1.72%	3.14%	6.05%	11.92%	23.92%	52.20%
Queen Of The South	0.61%	1.54%	2.94%	5.03%	7.60%	11.97%	17.40%	20.88%	19.60%	12.43%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+7.78%

Slight Edge

38.89%30.00%31.11%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 27.08 Elo pts.

188 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

0500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.19 goals

Neutral

-2+0.14+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

4.9

Open

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

24%

Ross County, 2nd of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.67/gm

Comfortable

00.141/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 6.09 * Some Luck: 6.09 to 9.14 * Lucky: 9.14 to 12.19 * Wild Swing: 12.19 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.32 * Close: 1.32 to 1.98 * Off: 1.98 to 2.64 * Way Off: 2.64 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

8.45 points

Some Luck

07.6219

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.00

Pinpoint

01.654

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

99.85%

Ross County

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

7.22%

Queen Of The South

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.13

Even

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.40

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

65%

Slight Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

82%

Clear Edge

50%82%100%

Close Games

Expected

68%

Very Frequent

0%61%100%

Blowouts

Expected

15%

Frequent

0%16%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.66

Hard to Predict

00.632

Matchup Imbalance

0.24

Notable Separation

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.24

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.50

Some Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

26%

As Expected

0%28%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

22%

As Expected

0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.

Probability calibration

0.50

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.83

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.088

Well Within Noise

00.1290.3

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Direct promotion	Same level	Qualified for relegation playoff	Direct relegation
Dundee	31.25%	68.06%	0.59%	0.10%
Ross County	23.58%	74.98%	1.20%	0.24%
Falkirk	16.86%	81.15%	1.69%	0.30%
Partick Thistle	10.83%	85.16%	3.08%	0.93%
Livingston	9.24%	86.53%	3.24%	0.99%
Hamilton Academical	6.17%	86.53%	5.57%	1.73%
Raith Rovers	1.22%	76.50%	14.33%	7.95%
Queen Of The South	0.61%	67.36%	19.60%	12.43%
Greenock Morton	0.21%	49.88%	26.78%	23.13%
Ayr United	0.03%	23.85%	23.92%	52.20%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
2011-08-06	Dundee	L 0-1	1359	1404	32.6%	26.4%	41.0%	-5.9	0
2011-08-06	@ Partick Thistle	W 1-0	1404	1359	41.0%	26.4%	32.6%	+5.9	3
2011-08-06	Falkirk	W 1-0	1335	1375	33.2%	26.4%	40.4%	+6.9	3
2011-08-06	@ Raith Rovers	L 0-1	1375	1335	40.4%	26.4%	33.2%	-6.9	0
2011-08-06	Greenock Morton	D 0-0	1319	1296	42.2%	26.3%	31.5%	-0.4	1
2011-08-06	@ Ross County	D 0-0	1296	1319	31.5%	26.3%	42.2%	+0.4	1
2011-08-06	Hamilton Academical	L 1-2	1281	1356	28.9%	26.0%	45.1%	-5.0	0
2011-08-06	@ Ayr United	W 2-1	1356	1281	45.1%	26.0%	28.9%	+5.1	3
2011-08-06	Queen Of The South	D 2-2	1377	1350	42.7%	26.3%	31.0%	-0.3	1
2011-08-06	@ Livingston	D 2-2	1350	1377	31.0%	26.3%	42.7%	+0.3	1
2011-08-13	Ayr United	D 1-1	1410	1276	56.5%	23.6%	19.8%	-1.4	4
2011-08-13	@ Dundee	D 1-1	1276	1410	19.8%	23.6%	56.5%	+1.4	1
2011-08-13	Livingston	W 2-1	1297	1377	28.2%	25.9%	45.8%	+7.2	4
2011-08-13	@ Greenock Morton	L 1-2	1377	1297	45.8%	25.9%	28.2%	-7.2	1
2011-08-13	Partick Thistle	W 2-1	1368	1353	41.1%	26.4%	32.5%	+5.5	3
2011-08-13	@ Falkirk	L 1-2	1353	1368	32.5%	26.4%	41.1%	-5.5	0
2011-08-13	Raith Rovers	L 1-3	1351	1341	40.2%	26.4%	33.3%	-11.3	1
2011-08-13	@ Queen Of The South	W 3-1	1341	1351	33.3%	26.4%	40.2%	+11.3	6
2011-08-13	Ross County	W 5-1	1361	1319	44.7%	26.1%	29.2%	+16.1	6
2011-08-13	@ Hamilton Academical	L 1-5	1319	1361	29.2%	26.1%	44.7%	-16.1	1
2011-08-20	Dundee	W 4-2	1370	1409	33.5%	26.4%	40.1%	+10.1	4
2011-08-20	@ Livingston	L 2-4	1409	1370	40.1%	26.4%	33.5%	-10.1	4
2011-08-20	Falkirk	D 2-2	1277	1374	26.3%	25.6%	48.1%	+0.6	2
2011-08-20	@ Ayr United	D 2-2	1374	1277	48.1%	25.6%	26.3%	-0.6	4
2011-08-20	Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1353	1304	45.7%	25.9%	28.3%	-0.6	7
2011-08-20	@ Raith Rovers	D 1-1	1304	1353	28.3%	25.9%	45.7%	+0.6	5
2011-08-20	Hamilton Academical	D 1-1	1347	1377	34.8%	26.5%	38.7%	+0.1	1
2011-08-20	@ Partick Thistle	D 1-1	1377	1347	38.7%	26.5%	34.8%	-0.1	7
2011-08-20	Queen Of The South	W 2-0	1303	1339	33.8%	26.5%	39.8%	+12.9	4
2011-08-20	@ Ross County	L 0-2	1339	1303	39.8%	26.5%	33.8%	-12.9	1
2011-08-27	Greenock Morton	L 0-1	1399	1305	51.6%	24.9%	23.4%	-8.4	4
2011-08-27	@ Dundee	W 1-0	1305	1399	23.4%	24.9%	51.6%	+8.4	8
2011-08-27	Livingston	D 1-1	1377	1380	38.4%	26.5%	35.1%	-0.1	8
2011-08-27	@ Hamilton Academical	D 1-1	1380	1377	35.1%	26.5%	38.4%	+0.1	5
2011-08-27	Queen Of The South	W 2-1	1348	1327	41.9%	26.3%	31.8%	+5.5	4
2011-08-27	@ Partick Thistle	L 1-2	1327	1348	31.8%	26.3%	41.9%	-5.5	1
2011-08-27	Raith Rovers	W 2-1	1278	1352	28.9%	26.0%	45.1%	+7.1	5
2011-08-27	@ Ayr United	L 1-2	1352	1278	45.1%	26.0%	28.9%	-7.1	7
2011-08-27	Ross County	D 1-1	1373	1316	46.9%	25.8%	27.3%	-0.7	5
2011-08-27	@ Falkirk	D 1-1	1316	1373	27.3%	25.8%	46.9%	+0.7	5
2011-09-10	Ayr United	W 4-1	1313	1285	42.9%	26.2%	30.8%	+13.1	11
2011-09-10	@ Greenock Morton	L 1-4	1285	1313	30.8%	26.2%	42.9%	-13.0	5
2011-09-10	Dundee	L 0-1	1345	1390	32.6%	26.4%	41.0%	-5.9	7
2011-09-10	@ Raith Rovers	W 1-0	1390	1345	41.0%	26.4%	32.6%	+5.9	7
2011-09-10	Falkirk	D 1-1	1380	1373	40.0%	26.4%	33.6%	-0.2	6
2011-09-10	@ Livingston	D 1-1	1373	1380	33.6%	26.4%	40.0%	+0.2	6
2011-09-10	Hamilton Academical	W 1-0	1321	1376	31.3%	26.3%	42.4%	+7.2	4
2011-09-10	@ Queen Of The South	L 0-1	1376	1321	42.4%	26.3%	31.3%	-7.2	8
2011-09-10	Partick Thistle	D 2-2	1317	1353	33.8%	26.5%	39.8%	+0.2	6
2011-09-10	@ Ross County	D 2-2	1353	1317	39.8%	26.5%	33.8%	-0.1	5
2011-09-17	Ayr United	W 4-0	1353	1272	50.0%	25.3%	24.7%	+16.8	8
2011-09-17	@ Partick Thistle	L 0-4	1272	1353	24.7%	25.3%	50.0%	-16.8	5
2011-09-17	Dundee	W 2-1	1373	1396	35.6%	26.5%	37.9%	+6.2	9
2011-09-17	@ Falkirk	L 1-2	1396	1373	37.9%	26.5%	35.6%	-6.2	7
2011-09-17	Greenock Morton	W 4-1	1328	1326	39.2%	26.5%	34.3%	+14.2	7
2011-09-17	@ Queen Of The South	L 1-4	1326	1328	34.3%	26.5%	39.2%	-14.2	11
2011-09-17	Livingston	D 1-1	1317	1380	30.3%	26.2%	43.5%	+0.5	7
2011-09-17	@ Ross County	D 1-1	1380	1317	43.5%	26.2%	30.3%	-0.5	7
2011-09-17	Raith Rovers	D 2-2	1369	1339	43.2%	26.2%	30.6%	-0.3	9
2011-09-17	@ Hamilton Academical	D 2-2	1339	1369	30.6%	26.2%	43.2%	+0.3	8
2011-09-24	Falkirk	W 3-2	1312	1379	29.8%	26.1%	44.1%	+6.6	14
2011-09-24	@ Greenock Morton	L 2-3	1379	1312	44.1%	26.1%	29.8%	-6.6	9
2011-09-24	Hamilton Academical	L 0-1	1390	1369	41.9%	26.3%	31.8%	-7.1	7
2011-09-24	@ Dundee	W 1-0	1369	1390	31.8%	26.3%	41.9%	+7.1	12
2011-09-24	Partick Thistle	W 2-1	1379	1370	40.3%	26.4%	33.3%	+5.7	10
2011-09-24	@ Livingston	L 1-2	1370	1379	33.3%	26.4%	40.3%	-5.7	8
2011-09-24	Queen Of The South	W 1-0	1255	1342	27.4%	25.8%	46.8%	+7.8	8
2011-09-24	@ Ayr United	L 0-1	1342	1255	46.8%	25.8%	27.4%	-7.8	7
2011-09-24	Ross County	L 0-1	1339	1317	42.1%	26.3%	31.6%	-7.2	8
2011-09-24	@ Raith Rovers	W 1-0	1317	1339	31.6%	26.3%	42.1%	+7.2	10
2011-09-30	Greenock Morton	W 5-0	1364	1319	45.3%	26.0%	28.7%	+23.6	11
2011-09-30	@ Partick Thistle	L 0-5	1319	1364	28.7%	26.0%	45.3%	-23.5	14
2011-10-01	Ayr United	W 4-0	1324	1263	47.4%	25.7%	26.8%	+18.1	13
2011-10-01	@ Ross County	L 0-4	1263	1324	26.8%	25.7%	47.4%	-18.1	8
2011-10-01	Dundee	D 0-0	1335	1383	32.2%	26.4%	41.4%	+0.3	8
2011-10-01	@ Queen Of The South	D 0-0	1383	1335	41.4%	26.4%	32.2%	-0.4	8
2011-10-01	Falkirk	L 0-1	1376	1373	39.4%	26.5%	34.1%	-6.8	12
2011-10-01	@ Hamilton Academical	W 1-0	1373	1376	34.1%	26.5%	39.4%	+6.8	12
2011-10-01	Raith Rovers	D 1-1	1385	1332	46.3%	25.9%	27.9%	-0.7	11
2011-10-01	@ Livingston	D 1-1	1332	1385	27.9%	25.9%	46.3%	+0.7	9
2011-10-15	Hamilton Academical	L 0-2	1295	1369	28.9%	26.0%	45.0%	-10.1	14
2011-10-15	@ Greenock Morton	W 2-0	1369	1295	45.0%	26.0%	28.9%	+10.1	15
2011-10-15	Livingston	D 0-0	1244	1384	22.0%	24.5%	53.5%	+1.3	9
2011-10-15	@ Ayr United	D 0-0	1384	1244	53.5%	24.5%	22.0%	-1.3	12
2011-10-15	Partick Thistle	W 2-0	1333	1388	31.4%	26.3%	42.3%	+13.6	12
2011-10-15	@ Raith Rovers	L 0-2	1388	1333	42.3%	26.3%	31.4%	-13.6	11
2011-10-15	Queen Of The South	W 1-0	1379	1335	45.1%	26.0%	28.9%	+5.4	15
2011-10-15	@ Falkirk	L 0-1	1335	1379	28.9%	26.0%	45.1%	-5.4	8
2011-10-15	Ross County	L 1-2	1382	1342	44.5%	26.1%	29.4%	-7.0	8
2011-10-15	@ Dundee	W 2-1	1342	1382	29.4%	26.1%	44.5%	+7.1	16
2011-10-22	Dundee	L 1-3	1246	1375	23.0%	24.8%	52.2%	-7.2	9
2011-10-22	@ Ayr United	W 3-1	1375	1246	52.2%	24.8%	23.0%	+7.2	11
2011-10-22	Falkirk	D 2-2	1374	1385	37.4%	26.5%	36.1%	-0.0	12
2011-10-22	@ Partick Thistle	D 2-2	1385	1374	36.1%	26.5%	37.4%	+0.0	16
2011-10-22	Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1383	1285	52.1%	24.8%	23.0%	-1.1	13
2011-10-22	@ Livingston	D 1-1	1285	1383	23.0%	24.8%	52.1%	+1.0	15
2011-10-22	Hamilton Academical	W 1-0	1349	1379	34.7%	26.5%	38.8%	+6.7	19
2011-10-22	@ Ross County	L 0-1	1379	1349	38.8%	26.5%	34.7%	-6.7	15
2011-10-22	Queen Of The South	L 0-2	1347	1330	41.3%	26.4%	32.3%	-13.3	12
2011-10-22	@ Raith Rovers	W 2-0	1330	1347	32.3%	26.4%	41.3%	+13.3	11
2011-10-29	Ayr United	L 2-3	1373	1239	56.5%	23.7%	19.8%	-8.1	15
2011-10-29	@ Hamilton Academical	W 3-2	1239	1373	19.8%	23.7%	56.5%	+8.1	12
2011-10-29	Livingston	L 0-2	1343	1382	33.4%	26.4%	40.2%	-11.3	11
2011-10-29	@ Queen Of The South	W 2-0	1382	1343	40.2%	26.4%	33.4%	+11.3	16
2011-10-29	Partick Thistle	L 0-1	1383	1374	40.2%	26.4%	33.4%	-6.9	11
2011-10-29	@ Dundee	W 1-0	1374	1383	33.4%	26.4%	40.2%	+6.9	15
2011-10-29	Raith Rovers	W 2-0	1385	1333	46.1%	25.9%	28.0%	+9.9	19
2011-10-29	@ Falkirk	L 0-2	1333	1385	28.0%	25.9%	46.1%	-9.9	12
2011-10-29	Ross County	L 0-2	1286	1356	29.4%	26.1%	44.5%	-10.3	15
2011-10-29	@ Greenock Morton	W 2-0	1356	1286	44.5%	26.1%	29.4%	+10.3	22
2011-11-05	Greenock Morton	L 0-1	1247	1276	34.8%	26.5%	38.7%	-6.2	12
2011-11-05	@ Ayr United	W 1-0	1276	1247	38.7%	26.5%	34.8%	+6.2	18
2011-11-05	Livingston	W 4-3	1395	1394	39.1%	26.5%	34.4%	+5.4	22
2011-11-05	@ Falkirk	L 3-4	1394	1395	34.4%	26.5%	39.1%	-5.4	16
2011-11-05	Queen Of The South	W 3-1	1365	1332	43.6%	26.2%	30.2%	+9.1	18
2011-11-05	@ Hamilton Academical	L 1-3	1332	1365	30.2%	26.2%	43.6%	-9.1	11
2011-11-05	Raith Rovers	W 1-0	1376	1323	46.2%	25.9%	27.9%	+5.2	14
2011-11-05	@ Dundee	L 0-1	1323	1376	27.9%	25.9%	46.2%	-5.2	12
2011-11-05	Ross County	L 0-1	1381	1366	41.0%	26.4%	32.6%	-7.0	15
2011-11-05	@ Partick Thistle	W 1-0	1366	1381	32.6%	26.4%	41.0%	+7.0	25
2011-11-12	Ayr United	L 0-1	1318	1240	49.5%	25.4%	25.1%	-8.2	12
2011-11-12	@ Raith Rovers	W 1-0	1240	1318	25.1%	25.4%	49.5%	+8.1	15
2011-11-12	Dundee	L 1-2	1282	1381	26.1%	25.6%	48.3%	-4.7	18
2011-11-12	@ Greenock Morton	W 2-1	1381	1282	48.3%	25.6%	26.1%	+4.6	17
2011-11-12	Falkirk	W 3-1	1373	1400	35.1%	26.5%	38.4%	+10.9	28
2011-11-12	@ Ross County	L 1-3	1400	1373	38.4%	26.5%	35.1%	-10.9	22
2011-11-12	Hamilton Academical	W 1-0	1388	1374	41.0%	26.4%	32.6%	+5.9	19
2011-11-12	@ Livingston	L 0-1	1374	1388	32.6%	26.4%	41.0%	-5.9	18
2011-11-12	Partick Thistle	D 0-0	1322	1374	31.8%	26.3%	41.9%	+0.4	12
2011-11-12	@ Queen Of The South	D 0-0	1374	1322	41.9%	26.3%	31.8%	-0.4	16
2011-11-26	Falkirk	W 4-2	1386	1389	38.4%	26.5%	35.1%	+9.1	20
2011-11-26	@ Dundee	L 2-4	1389	1386	35.1%	26.5%	38.4%	-9.1	22
2011-11-26	Hamilton Academical	W 3-2	1310	1368	31.0%	26.3%	42.8%	+6.5	15
2011-11-26	@ Raith Rovers	L 2-3	1368	1310	42.8%	26.3%	31.0%	-6.5	18
2011-11-26	Queen Of The South	D 2-2	1277	1323	32.6%	26.4%	41.1%	+0.2	19
2011-11-26	@ Greenock Morton	D 2-2	1323	1277	41.1%	26.4%	32.6%	-0.2	13
2011-11-26	Ross County	L 0-3	1394	1384	40.3%	26.4%	33.3%	-19.0	19
2011-11-26	@ Livingston	W 3-0	1384	1394	33.3%	26.4%	40.3%	+19.0	31
2011-11-30	Partick Thistle	D 0-0	1249	1374	23.4%	24.9%	51.6%	+1.1	16
2011-11-30	@ Ayr United	D 0-0	1374	1249	51.6%	24.9%	23.4%	-1.1	17
2011-12-03	Ayr United	W 4-1	1323	1250	48.9%	25.5%	25.6%	+11.2	16
2011-12-03	@ Queen Of The South	L 1-4	1250	1323	25.6%	25.5%	48.9%	-11.2	16
2011-12-03	Dundee	L 1-6	1361	1395	34.2%	26.5%	39.3%	-22.4	18
2011-12-03	@ Hamilton Academical	W 6-1	1395	1361	39.3%	26.5%	34.2%	+22.4	23
2011-12-03	Greenock Morton	W 1-0	1380	1277	52.7%	24.7%	22.6%	+4.3	25
2011-12-03	@ Falkirk	L 0-1	1277	1380	22.6%	24.7%	52.7%	-4.4	19
2011-12-03	Livingston	W 2-1	1372	1375	38.6%	26.5%	34.9%	+5.9	20
2011-12-03	@ Partick Thistle	L 1-2	1375	1372	34.9%	26.5%	38.6%	-5.9	19
2011-12-03	Raith Rovers	W 4-2	1403	1316	50.7%	25.1%	24.2%	+6.7	34
2011-12-03	@ Ross County	L 2-4	1316	1403	24.2%	25.1%	50.7%	-6.7	15
2011-12-10	Hamilton Academical	D 0-0	1384	1339	45.3%	26.0%	28.7%	-0.6	26
2011-12-10	@ Falkirk	D 0-0	1339	1384	28.7%	26.0%	45.3%	+0.6	19
2011-12-10	Livingston	L 0-1	1310	1369	30.8%	26.2%	43.0%	-5.6	15
2011-12-10	@ Raith Rovers	W 1-0	1369	1310	43.0%	26.2%	30.8%	+5.6	22
2011-12-10	Partick Thistle	L 1-2	1273	1378	25.4%	25.4%	49.1%	-4.5	19
2011-12-10	@ Greenock Morton	W 2-1	1378	1273	49.1%	25.4%	25.4%	+4.5	23
2011-12-10	Queen Of The South	W 2-1	1417	1334	50.2%	25.2%	24.5%	+4.4	26
2011-12-10	@ Dundee	L 1-2	1334	1417	24.5%	25.2%	50.2%	-4.4	16
2011-12-17	Dundee	D 1-1	1410	1421	37.3%	26.5%	36.2%	-0.0	35
2011-12-17	@ Ross County	D 1-1	1421	1410	36.2%	26.5%	37.3%	+0.0	27
2011-12-17	Falkirk	L 1-5	1329	1384	31.4%	26.3%	42.3%	-17.1	16
2011-12-17	@ Queen Of The South	W 5-1	1384	1329	42.3%	26.3%	31.4%	+17.1	29
2011-12-17	Raith Rovers	L 0-1	1383	1304	49.7%	25.3%	25.0%	-8.2	23
2011-12-17	@ Partick Thistle	W 1-0	1304	1383	25.0%	25.3%	49.7%	+8.2	18
2011-12-26	Greenock Morton	L 0-1	1422	1269	58.7%	23.0%	18.4%	-9.4	27
2011-12-26	@ Dundee	W 1-0	1269	1422	18.4%	23.0%	58.7%	+9.4	22
2011-12-26	Livingston	L 0-1	1340	1375	33.9%	26.5%	39.6%	-6.1	19
2011-12-26	@ Hamilton Academical	W 1-0	1375	1340	39.6%	26.5%	33.9%	+6.1	25
2011-12-26	Queen Of The South	W 1-0	1375	1312	47.5%	25.7%	26.8%	+5.0	26
2011-12-26	@ Partick Thistle	L 0-1	1312	1375	26.8%	25.7%	47.5%	-5.0	16
2011-12-26	Raith Rovers	D 1-1	1239	1312	29.0%	26.1%	44.9%	+0.6	17
2011-12-26	@ Ayr United	D 1-1	1312	1239	44.9%	26.1%	29.0%	-0.5	19
2011-12-26	Ross County	D 1-1	1401	1410	37.6%	26.5%	35.9%	-0.1	30
2011-12-26	@ Falkirk	D 1-1	1410	1401	35.9%	26.5%	37.6%	+0.1	36
2012-01-02	Ayr United	W 3-1	1278	1239	44.4%	26.1%	29.5%	+8.9	25
2012-01-02	@ Greenock Morton	L 1-3	1239	1278	29.5%	26.1%	44.4%	-8.9	17
2012-01-02	Dundee	L 0-1	1312	1412	25.9%	25.5%	48.5%	-4.9	19
2012-01-02	@ Raith Rovers	W 1-0	1412	1312	48.5%	25.5%	25.9%	+4.9	30
2012-01-02	Falkirk	L 1-2	1381	1401	36.1%	26.5%	37.4%	-6.0	25
2012-01-02	@ Livingston	W 2-1	1401	1381	37.4%	26.5%	36.1%	+6.0	33
2012-01-02	Hamilton Academical	L 1-2	1307	1333	35.2%	26.5%	38.3%	-5.9	16
2012-01-02	@ Queen Of The South	W 2-1	1333	1307	38.3%	26.5%	35.2%	+5.9	22
2012-01-13	Partick Thistle	W 1-0	1339	1380	33.3%	26.4%	40.3%	+6.9	25
2012-01-13	@ Hamilton Academical	L 0-1	1380	1339	40.3%	26.4%	33.3%	-6.9	26
2012-01-14	Ayr United	D 0-0	1407	1230	61.3%	22.0%	16.6%	-1.9	34
2012-01-14	@ Falkirk	D 0-0	1230	1407	16.6%	22.0%	61.3%	+1.9	18
2012-01-14	Livingston	W 3-0	1417	1375	44.8%	26.1%	29.1%	+14.8	33
2012-01-14	@ Dundee	L 0-3	1375	1417	29.1%	26.1%	44.8%	-14.8	25
2012-01-14	Raith Rovers	D 1-1	1287	1307	36.1%	26.5%	37.4%	+0.1	26
2012-01-14	@ Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1307	1287	37.4%	26.5%	36.1%	-0.0	20
2012-01-14	Ross County	D 0-0	1301	1410	25.1%	25.4%	49.6%	+1.0	17
2012-01-14	@ Queen Of The South	D 0-0	1410	1301	49.6%	25.4%	25.1%	-1.0	37
2012-01-21	Dundee	D 0-0	1373	1432	30.8%	26.2%	42.9%	+0.5	27
2012-01-21	@ Partick Thistle	D 0-0	1432	1373	42.9%	26.2%	30.8%	-0.5	34
2012-01-21	Falkirk	D 2-2	1307	1405	26.2%	25.6%	48.2%	+0.6	21
2012-01-21	@ Raith Rovers	D 2-2	1405	1307	48.2%	25.6%	26.2%	-0.6	35
2012-01-21	Hamilton Academical	D 2-2	1232	1346	24.5%	25.2%	50.3%	+0.7	19
2012-01-21	@ Ayr United	D 2-2	1346	1232	50.3%	25.2%	24.5%	-0.7	26
2012-01-21	Queen Of The South	D 2-2	1360	1302	46.9%	25.8%	27.3%	-0.5	26
2012-01-21	@ Livingston	D 2-2	1302	1360	27.3%	25.8%	46.9%	+0.5	18
2012-01-28	Greenock Morton	W 2-1	1303	1287	41.2%	26.4%	32.4%	+5.5	21
2012-01-28	@ Queen Of The South	L 1-2	1287	1303	32.4%	26.4%	41.2%	-5.6	26
2012-01-28	Livingston	W 3-0	1409	1360	45.8%	25.9%	28.2%	+14.4	40
2012-01-28	@ Ross County	L 0-3	1360	1409	28.2%	25.9%	45.8%	-14.4	26
2012-02-11	Falkirk	D 0-0	1281	1404	23.6%	25.0%	51.4%	+1.1	27
2012-02-11	@ Greenock Morton	D 0-0	1404	1281	51.4%	25.0%	23.6%	-1.1	36
2012-02-11	Hamilton Academical	D 2-2	1431	1346	50.6%	25.2%	24.3%	-0.7	35
2012-02-11	@ Dundee	D 2-2	1346	1431	24.3%	25.2%	50.6%	+0.7	27
2012-02-11	Partick Thistle	W 3-1	1345	1373	34.9%	26.5%	38.6%	+10.9	29
2012-02-11	@ Livingston	L 1-3	1373	1345	38.6%	26.5%	34.9%	-10.9	27
2012-02-11	Queen Of The South	D 1-1	1233	1308	28.8%	26.0%	45.2%	+0.6	20
2012-02-11	@ Ayr United	D 1-1	1308	1233	45.2%	26.0%	28.8%	-0.6	22
2012-02-11	Ross County	D 1-1	1307	1424	24.3%	25.2%	50.5%	+0.9	22
2012-02-11	@ Raith Rovers	D 1-1	1424	1307	50.5%	25.2%	24.3%	-0.9	41
2012-02-14	Greenock Morton	L 1-2	1346	1282	47.7%	25.7%	26.6%	-7.5	27
2012-02-14	@ Hamilton Academical	W 2-1	1282	1346	26.6%	25.7%	47.7%	+7.5	30
2012-02-18	Ayr United	D 1-1	1423	1233	62.7%	21.5%	15.8%	-1.8	42
2012-02-18	@ Ross County	D 1-1	1233	1423	15.8%	21.5%	62.7%	+1.8	21
2012-02-18	Dundee	D 1-1	1308	1431	23.6%	25.0%	51.4%	+1.0	23
2012-02-18	@ Queen Of The South	D 1-1	1431	1308	51.4%	25.0%	23.6%	-1.0	36
2012-02-18	Falkirk	L 0-1	1339	1403	30.2%	26.2%	43.7%	-5.5	27
2012-02-18	@ Hamilton Academical	W 1-0	1403	1339	43.7%	26.2%	30.2%	+5.5	39
2012-02-18	Greenock Morton	D 0-0	1362	1290	48.8%	25.5%	25.7%	-0.9	28
2012-02-18	@ Partick Thistle	D 0-0	1290	1362	25.7%	25.5%	48.8%	+0.9	31
2012-02-18	Raith Rovers	W 4-0	1356	1308	45.6%	26.0%	28.4%	+19.0	32
2012-02-18	@ Livingston	L 0-4	1308	1356	28.4%	26.0%	45.6%	-19.0	22
2012-02-21	Ayr United	W 4-2	1361	1235	55.6%	23.9%	20.5%	+5.8	31
2012-02-21	@ Partick Thistle	L 2-4	1235	1361	20.5%	23.9%	55.6%	-5.8	21
2012-02-21	Dundee	D 1-1	1409	1430	35.9%	26.5%	37.5%	+0.0	40
2012-02-21	@ Falkirk	D 1-1	1430	1409	37.5%	26.5%	35.9%	-0.1	37
2012-02-21	Raith Rovers	W 2-1	1333	1289	45.1%	26.0%	28.9%	+5.1	30
2012-02-21	@ Hamilton Academical	L 1-2	1289	1333	28.9%	26.0%	45.1%	-5.1	22
2012-02-25	Hamilton Academical	L 1-2	1291	1338	32.3%	26.4%	41.3%	-5.5	31
2012-02-25	@ Greenock Morton	W 2-1	1338	1291	41.3%	26.4%	32.3%	+5.5	33
2012-02-25	Livingston	W 3-1	1229	1375	21.5%	24.3%	54.2%	+14.3	24
2012-02-25	@ Ayr United	L 1-3	1375	1229	54.2%	24.3%	21.5%	-14.3	32
2012-02-25	Partick Thistle	W 2-1	1284	1367	27.9%	25.9%	46.2%	+7.3	25
2012-02-25	@ Raith Rovers	L 1-2	1367	1284	46.2%	25.9%	27.9%	-7.3	31
2012-02-25	Queen Of The South	W 3-0	1409	1309	52.3%	24.8%	22.9%	+12.0	43
2012-02-25	@ Falkirk	L 0-3	1309	1409	22.9%	24.8%	52.3%	-12.0	23
2012-02-25	Ross County	D 1-1	1430	1421	40.2%	26.4%	33.4%	-0.2	38
2012-02-25	@ Dundee	D 1-1	1421	1430	33.4%	26.4%	40.2%	+0.2	43
2012-02-29	Ross County	L 2-3	1244	1421	18.8%	23.2%	58.0%	-3.3	24
2012-02-29	@ Ayr United	W 3-2	1421	1244	58.0%	23.2%	18.8%	+3.3	46
2012-03-03	Dundee	L 2-3	1361	1429	29.6%	26.1%	44.2%	-4.9	32
2012-03-03	@ Livingston	W 3-2	1429	1361	44.2%	26.1%	29.6%	+4.9	41
2012-03-03	Falkirk	W 1-0	1240	1421	18.6%	23.1%	58.3%	+9.3	27
2012-03-03	@ Ayr United	L 0-1	1421	1240	58.3%	23.1%	18.6%	-9.3	43
2012-03-03	Greenock Morton	W 5-0	1292	1285	39.8%	26.4%	33.7%	+26.7	28
2012-03-03	@ Raith Rovers	L 0-5	1285	1292	33.7%	26.4%	39.8%	-26.7	31
2012-03-03	Hamilton Academical	W 2-0	1360	1344	41.2%	26.4%	32.4%	+11.1	34
2012-03-03	@ Partick Thistle	L 0-2	1344	1360	32.4%	26.4%	41.2%	-11.1	33
2012-03-03	Queen Of The South	W 2-1	1424	1297	55.7%	23.9%	20.4%	+3.7	49
2012-03-03	@ Ross County	L 1-2	1297	1424	20.4%	23.9%	55.7%	-3.7	23
2012-03-06	Ayr United	L 1-2	1356	1250	53.1%	24.6%	22.3%	-8.1	32
2012-03-06	@ Livingston	W 2-1	1250	1356	22.3%	24.6%	53.1%	+8.1	30
2012-03-06	Partick Thistle	W 3-0	1428	1371	46.8%	25.8%	27.4%	+14.1	52
2012-03-06	@ Ross County	L 0-3	1371	1428	27.4%	25.8%	46.8%	-14.1	34
2012-03-10	Livingston	L 1-3	1259	1348	27.2%	25.8%	47.0%	-8.3	31
2012-03-10	@ Greenock Morton	W 3-1	1348	1259	47.0%	25.8%	27.2%	+8.3	35
2012-03-10	Partick Thistle	D 1-1	1412	1357	46.5%	25.9%	27.7%	-0.7	44
2012-03-10	@ Falkirk	D 1-1	1357	1412	27.7%	25.9%	46.5%	+0.7	35
2012-03-10	Raith Rovers	W 1-0	1293	1318	35.4%	26.5%	38.1%	+6.6	26
2012-03-10	@ Queen Of The South	L 0-1	1318	1293	38.1%	26.5%	35.4%	-6.6	28
2012-03-10	Ross County	L 0-2	1333	1442	25.0%	25.3%	49.6%	-9.0	33
2012-03-10	@ Hamilton Academical	W 2-0	1442	1333	49.6%	25.3%	25.0%	+9.0	55
2012-03-13	Greenock Morton	D 2-2	1451	1250	63.9%	21.0%	15.1%	-1.4	56
2012-03-13	@ Ross County	D 2-2	1250	1451	15.1%	21.0%	63.9%	+1.4	32
2012-03-17	Ayr United	D 2-2	1312	1258	46.4%	25.9%	27.8%	-0.5	29
2012-03-17	@ Raith Rovers	D 2-2	1258	1312	27.8%	25.9%	46.4%	+0.5	31
2012-03-17	Dundee	L 0-2	1252	1434	18.4%	23.0%	58.6%	-6.7	32
2012-03-17	@ Greenock Morton	W 2-0	1434	1252	58.6%	23.0%	18.4%	+6.7	44
2012-03-17	Falkirk	W 2-1	1450	1411	44.4%	26.1%	29.5%	+5.1	59
2012-03-17	@ Ross County	L 1-2	1411	1450	29.5%	26.1%	44.4%	-5.1	44
2012-03-17	Hamilton Academical	L 0-4	1356	1324	43.5%	26.2%	30.3%	-26.3	35
2012-03-17	@ Livingston	W 4-0	1324	1356	30.3%	26.2%	43.5%	+26.2	36
2012-03-17	Partick Thistle	L 0-5	1300	1358	31.0%	26.3%	42.8%	-25.0	26
2012-03-17	@ Queen Of The South	W 5-0	1358	1300	42.8%	26.3%	31.0%	+25.0	38
2012-03-20	Dundee	W 3-1	1350	1441	27.0%	25.7%	47.2%	+12.8	39
2012-03-20	@ Hamilton Academical	L 1-3	1441	1350	47.2%	25.7%	27.0%	-12.8	44
2012-03-20	Greenock Morton	L 0-2	1406	1245	59.6%	22.7%	17.8%	-17.9	44
2012-03-20	@ Falkirk	W 2-0	1245	1406	17.8%	22.7%	59.6%	+17.9	35
2012-03-24	Greenock Morton	D 0-0	1258	1263	38.3%	26.5%	35.2%	-0.1	32
2012-03-24	@ Ayr United	D 0-0	1263	1258	35.2%	26.5%	38.3%	+0.1	36
2012-03-24	Livingston	L 2-5	1388	1330	46.9%	25.8%	27.3%	-15.6	44
2012-03-24	@ Falkirk	W 5-2	1330	1388	27.3%	25.8%	46.9%	+15.6	38
2012-03-24	Queen Of The South	W 3-0	1363	1275	50.9%	25.1%	24.0%	+12.6	42
2012-03-24	@ Hamilton Academical	L 0-3	1275	1363	24.0%	25.1%	50.9%	-12.6	26
2012-03-24	Raith Rovers	D 1-1	1428	1311	54.5%	24.2%	21.3%	-1.2	45
2012-03-24	@ Dundee	D 1-1	1311	1428	21.3%	24.2%	54.5%	+1.2	30
2012-03-24	Ross County	L 0-1	1383	1455	29.2%	26.1%	44.7%	-5.4	38
2012-03-24	@ Partick Thistle	W 1-0	1455	1383	44.7%	26.1%	29.2%	+5.4	62
2012-03-27	Ayr United	W 4-1	1427	1258	60.5%	22.4%	17.2%	+7.7	48
2012-03-27	@ Dundee	L 1-4	1258	1427	17.2%	22.4%	60.5%	-7.7	32
2012-03-31	Ayr United	W 2-1	1262	1251	40.6%	26.4%	33.0%	+5.6	29
2012-03-31	@ Queen Of The South	L 1-2	1251	1262	33.0%	26.4%	40.6%	-5.6	32
2012-03-31	Livingston	L 2-3	1377	1345	43.4%	26.2%	30.4%	-6.6	38
2012-03-31	@ Partick Thistle	W 3-2	1345	1377	30.4%	26.2%	43.4%	+6.6	41
2012-03-31	Raith Rovers	D 1-1	1460	1312	58.1%	23.2%	18.7%	-1.5	63
2012-03-31	@ Ross County	D 1-1	1312	1460	18.7%	23.2%	58.1%	+1.5	31
2012-04-07	Falkirk	W 3-1	1435	1372	47.5%	25.7%	26.8%	+8.2	51
2012-04-07	@ Dundee	L 1-3	1372	1435	26.8%	25.7%	47.5%	-8.2	44
2012-04-07	Hamilton Academical	W 2-1	1314	1375	30.5%	26.2%	43.3%	+6.9	34
2012-04-07	@ Raith Rovers	L 1-2	1375	1314	43.3%	26.2%	30.5%	-6.9	42
2012-04-07	Partick Thistle	L 1-3	1245	1371	23.3%	24.9%	51.7%	-7.3	32
2012-04-07	@ Ayr United	W 3-1	1371	1245	51.7%	24.9%	23.3%	+7.3	41
2012-04-07	Queen Of The South	D 2-2	1263	1268	38.2%	26.5%	35.3%	-0.1	37
2012-04-07	@ Greenock Morton	D 2-2	1268	1263	35.3%	26.5%	38.2%	+0.1	30
2012-04-07	Ross County	L 1-3	1352	1459	25.3%	25.4%	49.3%	-7.8	41
2012-04-07	@ Livingston	W 3-1	1459	1352	49.3%	25.4%	25.3%	+7.8	66
2012-04-10	Hamilton Academical	W 3-0	1364	1369	38.3%	26.5%	35.2%	+17.2	47
2012-04-10	@ Falkirk	L 0-3	1369	1364	35.2%	26.5%	38.3%	-17.1	42
2012-04-10	Livingston	L 0-3	1321	1344	35.6%	26.5%	37.9%	-17.3	34
2012-04-10	@ Raith Rovers	W 3-0	1344	1321	37.9%	26.5%	35.6%	+17.3	44
2012-04-10	Partick Thistle	W 1-0	1263	1378	24.4%	25.2%	50.4%	+8.3	40
2012-04-10	@ Greenock Morton	L 0-1	1378	1263	50.4%	25.2%	24.4%	-8.3	41
2012-04-10	Queen Of The South	D 1-1	1443	1268	61.1%	22.1%	16.8%	-1.7	52
2012-04-10	@ Dundee	D 1-1	1268	1443	16.8%	22.1%	61.1%	+1.7	31
2012-04-11	Ross County	L 1-3	1238	1467	15.2%	21.1%	63.7%	-4.8	32
2012-04-11	@ Ayr United	W 3-1	1467	1238	63.7%	21.1%	15.2%	+4.8	69
2012-04-14	Ayr United	L 0-1	1361	1233	55.8%	23.9%	20.3%	-9.0	44
2012-04-14	@ Livingston	W 1-0	1233	1361	20.3%	23.9%	55.8%	+9.0	35
2012-04-14	Dundee	W 3-0	1471	1441	43.2%	26.2%	30.6%	+15.4	72
2012-04-14	@ Ross County	L 0-3	1441	1471	30.6%	26.2%	43.2%	-15.4	52
2012-04-14	Falkirk	D 0-0	1270	1381	24.8%	25.3%	50.0%	+1.0	32
2012-04-14	@ Queen Of The South	D 0-0	1381	1270	50.0%	25.3%	24.8%	-1.0	48
2012-04-14	Greenock Morton	W 4-3	1351	1271	49.9%	25.3%	24.8%	+4.1	45
2012-04-14	@ Hamilton Academical	L 3-4	1271	1351	24.8%	25.3%	49.9%	-4.1	40
2012-04-14	Raith Rovers	D 1-1	1370	1303	48.0%	25.6%	26.3%	-0.8	42
2012-04-14	@ Partick Thistle	D 1-1	1303	1370	26.3%	25.6%	48.0%	+0.8	35
2012-04-21	Ayr United	W 3-2	1356	1242	54.0%	24.3%	21.6%	+3.7	48
2012-04-21	@ Hamilton Academical	L 2-3	1242	1356	21.6%	24.3%	54.0%	-3.7	35
2012-04-21	Livingston	L 0-4	1271	1352	28.1%	25.9%	46.0%	-18.7	32
2012-04-21	@ Queen Of The South	W 4-0	1352	1271	46.0%	25.9%	28.1%	+18.7	47
2012-04-21	Partick Thistle	L 0-3	1426	1369	46.8%	25.8%	27.4%	-21.3	52
2012-04-21	@ Dundee	W 3-0	1369	1426	27.4%	25.8%	46.8%	+21.3	45
2012-04-21	Raith Rovers	L 2-3	1380	1304	49.3%	25.4%	25.3%	-7.3	48
2012-04-21	@ Falkirk	W 3-2	1304	1380	25.3%	25.4%	49.3%	+7.3	38
2012-04-21	Ross County	D 1-1	1267	1487	15.8%	21.5%	62.7%	+1.8	41
2012-04-21	@ Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1487	1267	62.7%	21.5%	15.8%	-1.8	73
2012-04-28	Dundee	W 3-2	1238	1405	19.7%	23.6%	56.7%	+8.1	38
2012-04-28	@ Ayr United	L 2-3	1405	1238	56.7%	23.6%	19.7%	-8.1	52
2012-04-28	Falkirk	D 1-1	1390	1373	41.4%	26.4%	32.2%	-0.3	46
2012-04-28	@ Partick Thistle	D 1-1	1373	1390	32.2%	26.4%	41.4%	+0.3	49
2012-04-28	Greenock Morton	D 0-0	1371	1269	52.7%	24.7%	22.6%	-1.2	48
2012-04-28	@ Livingston	D 0-0	1269	1371	22.6%	24.7%	52.7%	+1.2	42
2012-04-28	Hamilton Academical	W 5-1	1485	1359	55.5%	24.0%	20.5%	+11.8	76
2012-04-28	@ Ross County	L 1-5	1359	1485	20.5%	24.0%	55.5%	-11.8	48
2012-04-28	Queen Of The South	W 3-1	1311	1252	47.2%	25.8%	27.1%	+8.3	41
2012-04-28	@ Raith Rovers	L 1-3	1252	1311	27.1%	25.8%	47.2%	-8.3	32
2012-05-05	Ayr United	W 3-2	1373	1246	55.6%	23.9%	20.4%	+3.5	52
2012-05-05	@ Falkirk	L 2-3	1246	1373	20.4%	23.9%	55.6%	-3.5	38
2012-05-05	Livingston	W 1-0	1396	1370	42.7%	26.3%	31.1%	+5.7	55
2012-05-05	@ Dundee	L 0-1	1370	1396	31.1%	26.3%	42.7%	-5.7	48
2012-05-05	Partick Thistle	D 2-2	1347	1390	33.0%	26.4%	40.6%	+0.2	49
2012-05-05	@ Hamilton Academical	D 2-2	1390	1347	40.6%	26.4%	33.0%	-0.2	47
2012-05-05	Raith Rovers	L 1-3	1270	1320	32.0%	26.4%	41.6%	-9.5	42
2012-05-05	@ Greenock Morton	W 3-1	1320	1270	41.6%	26.4%	32.0%	+9.5	44
2012-05-05	Ross County	L 3-5	1243	1497	13.8%	20.0%	66.2%	-3.6	32
2012-05-05	@ Queen Of The South	W 5-3	1497	1243	66.2%	20.0%	13.8%	+3.6	79

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2012-03-20	17.76%	Greenock Morton	1245	2	@ Falkirk	1406	0
2	2011-12-26	18.35%	Greenock Morton	1269	1	@ Dundee	1422	0
3	2012-03-03	18.59%	@ Ayr United	1240	1	Falkirk	1421	0
4	2012-04-28	19.70%	@ Ayr United	1238	3	Dundee	1405	2
5	2011-10-29	19.84%	Ayr United	1239	3	@ Hamilton Academical	1373	2
6	2012-04-14	20.30%	Ayr United	1233	1	@ Livingston	1361	0
7	2012-02-25	21.47%	@ Ayr United	1229	3	Livingston	1375	1
8	2012-03-06	22.29%	Ayr United	1250	2	@ Livingston	1356	1
9	2011-08-27	23.45%	Greenock Morton	1305	1	@ Dundee	1399	0
10	2012-04-10	24.41%	@ Greenock Morton	1263	1	Partick Thistle	1378	0
11	2011-12-17	25.00%	Raith Rovers	1304	1	@ Partick Thistle	1383	0
12	2011-11-12	25.12%	Ayr United	1240	1	@ Raith Rovers	1318	0
13	2012-04-21	25.30%	Raith Rovers	1304	3	@ Falkirk	1380	2
14	2012-02-14	26.61%	Greenock Morton	1282	2	@ Hamilton Academical	1346	1
15	2012-03-20	27.01%	@ Hamilton Academical	1350	3	Dundee	1441	1
16	2012-03-24	27.26%	Livingston	1330	5	@ Falkirk	1388	2
17	2011-09-24	27.37%	@ Ayr United	1255	1	Queen Of The South	1342	0
18	2012-04-21	27.39%	Partick Thistle	1369	3	@ Dundee	1426	0
19	2012-02-25	27.92%	@ Raith Rovers	1284	2	Partick Thistle	1367	1
20	2011-08-13	28.22%	@ Greenock Morton	1297	2	Livingston	1377	1
21	2011-08-27	28.90%	@ Ayr United	1278	2	Raith Rovers	1352	1
22	2011-10-15	29.37%	Ross County	1342	2	@ Dundee	1382	1
23	2011-09-24	29.80%	@ Greenock Morton	1312	3	Falkirk	1379	2
24	2012-03-17	30.34%	Hamilton Academical	1324	4	@ Livingston	1356	0
25	2012-03-31	30.39%	Livingston	1345	3	@ Partick Thistle	1377	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2012-03-03	26.73	@ Raith Rovers	5	1292	39.82%	Greenock Morton	0	1285	33.74%	26.44%
2	2012-03-17	26.26	Hamilton Academical	4	1324	30.34%	@ Livingston	0	1356	43.46%	26.20%
3	2012-03-17	25.02	Partick Thistle	5	1358	42.76%	@ Queen Of The South	0	1300	30.97%	26.26%
4	2011-09-30	23.55	@ Partick Thistle	5	1364	45.27%	Greenock Morton	0	1319	28.72%	26.01%
5	2011-12-03	22.36	Dundee	6	1395	39.34%	@ Hamilton Academical	1	1361	34.19%	26.46%
6	2012-04-21	21.32	Partick Thistle	3	1369	27.39%	@ Dundee	0	1426	46.80%	25.81%
7	2011-11-26	18.97	Ross County	3	1384	33.26%	@ Livingston	0	1394	40.32%	26.42%
8	2012-02-18	18.96	@ Livingston	4	1356	45.59%	Raith Rovers	0	1308	28.44%	25.97%
9	2012-04-21	18.74	Livingston	4	1352	46.04%	@ Queen Of The South	0	1271	28.05%	25.91%
10	2011-10-01	18.07	@ Ross County	4	1324	47.45%	Ayr United	0	1263	26.84%	25.71%
11	2012-03-20	17.88	Greenock Morton	2	1245	17.76%	@ Falkirk	0	1406	59.56%	22.68%
12	2012-04-10	17.28	Livingston	3	1344	37.91%	@ Raith Rovers	0	1321	35.59%	26.50%
13	2012-04-10	17.15	@ Falkirk	3	1364	38.29%	Hamilton Academical	0	1369	35.22%	26.49%
14	2011-12-17	17.12	Falkirk	5	1384	42.26%	@ Queen Of The South	1	1329	31.44%	26.30%
15	2011-09-17	16.84	@ Partick Thistle	4	1353	50.00%	Ayr United	0	1272	24.73%	25.27%
16	2011-08-13	16.14	@ Hamilton Academical	5	1361	44.73%	Ross County	1	1319	29.20%	26.07%
17	2012-03-24	15.61	Livingston	5	1330	27.26%	@ Falkirk	2	1388	46.95%	25.78%
18	2012-04-14	15.39	@ Ross County	3	1471	43.17%	Dundee	0	1441	30.60%	26.23%
19	2012-01-14	14.80	@ Dundee	3	1417	44.81%	Livingston	0	1375	29.12%	26.06%
20	2012-01-28	14.43	@ Ross County	3	1409	45.81%	Livingston	0	1360	28.25%	25.94%
21	2012-02-25	14.34	@ Ayr United	3	1229	21.47%	Livingston	1	1375	54.22%	24.31%
22	2011-09-17	14.17	@ Queen Of The South	4	1328	39.24%	Greenock Morton	1	1326	34.29%	26.47%
23	2012-03-06	14.07	@ Ross County	3	1428	46.81%	Partick Thistle	0	1371	27.38%	25.80%
24	2011-10-15	13.56	@ Raith Rovers	2	1333	31.38%	Partick Thistle	0	1388	42.33%	26.30%
25	2011-10-22	13.31	Queen Of The South	2	1330	32.31%	@ Raith Rovers	0	1347	41.33%	26.37%