1958-59 Primeira Divisão Season

182 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Porto

41 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Os Belenenses (1st)

6.00 points above expected

38 points · 32.00 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Barreirense

5.79 points below expected

17 points · 22.79 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Porto	26	17	7	2	41	81	22	+59	37.6	+3.41
2	Benfica	26	17	7	2	41	78	20	+58	36.6	+4.35
3	Os Belenenses (1st)	26	16	6	4	38	65	27	+38	32.0	+6.00
4	Sporting Clube de Portugal	26	12	7	7	31	50	28	+22	34.4	-3.44
5	Vitoria Guimaraes	26	13	3	10	29	59	55	+4	26.2	+2.78
6	Vitoria Setubal	26	11	5	10	27	53	64	-11	23.2	+3.75
7	Braga	26	9	6	11	24	48	51	-3	24.2	-0.25
8	Sporting Covilha	26	9	4	13	22	43	65	-22	20.0	+1.98
9	Academica de Coimbra	26	8	5	13	21	45	46	-1	23.5	-2.51
10	Lusitano de Evora	26	8	5	13	21	40	49	-9	22.3	-1.31
11	Fabril	26	8	5	13	21	34	55	-21	23.2	-2.24
12	Barreirense	26	7	3	16	17	39	62	-23	22.8	-5.79
13	Caldas	26	5	6	15	16	33	76	-43	19.4	-3.38
14	Uniao Torreense	26	5	5	16	15	23	71	-48	18.4	-3.35

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Porto	1851	41	37.59	+3.41	89.0%	29	32	35	37	40	43	45
Benfica	1801	41	36.65	+4.35	87.0%	28	30	34	36	39	43	46
Os Belenenses (1st)	1706	38	32.00	+6.00	95.0%	21	25	29	32	34	38	41
Sporting Clube de Portugal	1678	31	34.44	-3.44	18.0%	28	29	32	34	37	41	43
Academica de Coimbra	1493	21	23.51	-2.51	29.0%	14	16	21	23	26	31	33
Braga	1486	24	24.25	-0.25	56.0%	15	19	22	24	26	30	36
Vitoria Guimaraes	1482	29	26.22	+2.78	82.0%	16	21	23	26	29	33	38
Vitoria Setubal	1429	27	23.25	+3.75	86.0%	13	17	21	23	26	30	31
Lusitano de Evora	1415	21	22.31	-1.31	37.0%	12	15	21	22	24	29	31
Sporting Covilha	1404	22	20.02	+1.98	78.0%	12	13	18	20	22	27	31
Barreirense	1399	17	22.79	-5.79	3.0%	14	18	20	23	25	28	34
Fabril	1371	21	23.24	-2.24	33.0%	15	17	21	23	26	29	35
Caldas	1326	16	19.38	-3.38	24.0%	9	13	17	19	22	25	27
Uniao Torreense	1306	15	18.35	-3.35	19.0%	9	12	16	18	21	24	26

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ADC	BAR	BEN	BRA	CAL	FAB	LDE	OB(	POR	SCDP	SC	UT	VG	VS
Academica de Coimbra	—	1-0-1 2.89	0-0-2 1.37	0-2-0 2.82	1-0-1 3.40	1-0-1 2.89	1-0-1 2.97	0-0-2 2.36	0-1-1 1.13	1-1-0 1.44	1-0-1 3.22	1-0-1 3.30	1-1-0 2.44	0-0-2 2.88
Barreirense	1-0-1 2.75	—	0-0-2 1.47	0-1-1 2.72	1-0-1 3.13	1-1-0 2.97	0-1-1 2.83	0-0-2 1.77	0-0-2 0.95	0-0-2 1.64	2-0-0 2.95	1-0-1 3.31	0-0-2 2.69	1-0-1 2.88
Benfica	2-0-0 4.28	2-0-0 4.20	—	2-0-0 4.38	1-1-0 4.28	2-0-0 4.40	1-1-0 4.45	1-1-0 3.41	0-2-0 2.83	1-0-1 3.33	1-1-0 4.21	2-0-0 4.41	1-0-1 4.10	1-1-0 4.60
Braga	0-2-0 2.81	1-1-0 2.92	0-0-2 1.28	—	1-1-0 3.29	0-0-2 3.02	1-0-1 2.73	0-0-2 2.19	0-0-2 1.40	1-1-0 1.50	2-0-0 3.09	1-1-0 3.51	1-0-1 2.49	1-0-1 3.09
Caldas	1-0-1 2.25	1-0-1 2.52	0-1-1 1.40	0-1-1 2.35	—	1-0-1 2.55	0-0-2 2.69	0-1-1 1.40	0-1-1 1.27	0-1-1 1.06	0-1-1 2.73	1-0-1 2.93	0-0-2 2.07	1-0-1 2.29
Fabril	1-0-1 2.75	0-1-1 2.67	0-0-2 1.29	2-0-0 2.62	1-0-1 3.09	—	0-1-1 2.87	0-0-2 1.87	1-0-1 1.33	0-1-1 1.49	0-1-1 3.19	2-0-0 3.32	0-0-2 2.59	1-1-0 2.71
Lusitano de Evora	1-0-1 2.67	1-1-0 2.81	0-1-1 1.23	1-0-1 2.90	2-0-0 2.95	1-1-0 2.76	—	0-1-1 1.40	0-0-2 1.49	0-1-1 1.58	1-0-1 3.15	1-0-1 3.17	0-0-2 2.66	0-0-2 2.86
Os Belenenses (1st)	2-0-0 3.31	2-0-0 3.87	0-1-1 2.23	2-0-0 3.46	1-1-0 4.25	2-0-0 3.77	1-1-0 4.26	—	1-0-1 2.11	1-1-0 2.78	1-0-1 4.15	0-2-0 3.96	1-0-1 3.53	2-0-0 3.60
Porto	1-1-0 4.54	2-0-0 4.72	0-2-0 2.81	2-0-0 4.27	1-1-0 4.42	1-0-1 4.33	2-0-0 4.17	1-0-1 3.53	—	1-1-0 2.99	2-0-0 4.47	2-0-0 5.05	2-0-0 3.97	0-2-0 4.43
Sporting Clube de Portugal	0-1-1 4.22	2-0-0 4.02	1-0-1 2.31	0-1-1 4.15	1-1-0 4.61	1-1-0 4.17	1-1-0 4.08	0-1-1 2.87	0-1-1 2.64	—	1-0-1 4.51	2-0-0 4.56	2-0-0 3.78	1-0-1 4.08
Sporting Covilha	1-0-1 2.42	0-0-2 2.69	0-1-1 1.47	0-0-2 2.55	1-1-0 2.91	1-1-0 2.45	1-0-1 2.49	1-0-1 1.49	0-0-2 1.22	1-0-1 1.16	—	1-0-1 3.04	1-1-0 2.18	1-0-1 2.34
Uniao Torreense	1-0-1 2.34	1-0-1 2.34	0-0-2 1.28	0-1-1 2.14	1-0-1 2.71	0-0-2 2.32	1-0-1 2.46	0-2-0 1.72	0-0-2 0.66	0-0-2 1.11	1-0-1 2.60	—	0-1-1 1.95	0-1-1 2.56
Vitoria Guimaraes	0-1-1 3.20	2-0-0 2.96	1-0-1 1.56	1-0-1 3.14	2-0-0 3.58	2-0-0 3.04	2-0-0 2.98	1-0-1 2.12	0-0-2 1.69	0-0-2 1.87	0-1-1 3.46	1-1-0 3.70	—	1-0-1 2.88
Vitoria Setubal	2-0-0 2.76	1-0-1 2.76	0-1-1 1.07	1-0-1 2.55	1-0-1 3.34	0-1-1 2.93	2-0-0 2.78	0-0-2 2.06	0-2-0 1.24	1-0-1 1.58	1-0-1 3.31	1-1-0 3.08	1-0-1 2.76	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.95%	4.67%	3.02%	4.12%	1.65%	4.40%	22.80%
1	4.67%	7.14%	7.42%	4.67%	1.10%	3.02%	28.02%
2	3.02%	7.42%	4.95%	2.47%	1.10%	0.82%	19.78%
3	4.12%	4.67%	2.47%	2.75%	0.82%	0.27%	15.11%
4	1.65%	1.10%	1.10%	0.82%	0.55%	0.27%	5.49%
5+	4.40%	3.02%	0.82%	0.27%	0.27%	—	8.79%
Total	22.80%	28.02%	19.78%	15.11%	5.49%	8.79%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.90
Mean allowed	1.90
StdDev scored	1.83
StdDev allowed	1.83
Mean total goals/game	3.80
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.202
Sample size (games)	182

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.54%	—	3.85%	—	3.85%	19.23%
1	7.69%	15.38%	15.38%	7.69%	—	3.85%	50.00%
2	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	15.38%
3	—	—	3.85%	—	—	—	3.85%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	7.69%	—	—	—	3.85%	—	11.54%
Total	19.23%	30.77%	23.08%	15.38%	3.85%	7.69%	100%

Academica de Coimbra — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.73
Mean allowed	1.77
StdDev scored	2.29
StdDev allowed	1.45
Mean total goals/game	3.50
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.224
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	7.69%	3.85%	—	—	7.69%	19.23%
1	7.69%	3.85%	11.54%	15.38%	—	3.85%	42.31%
2	3.85%	3.85%	7.69%	7.69%	—	—	23.08%
3	—	—	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	7.69%
4	—	—	—	3.85%	—	—	3.85%
5+	—	3.85%	—	—	—	—	3.85%
Total	11.54%	19.23%	26.92%	26.92%	3.85%	11.54%	100%

Barreirense — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.50
Mean allowed	2.38
StdDev scored	1.36
StdDev allowed	1.72
Mean total goals/game	3.88
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.187
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.69%	—	—	—	—	—	7.69%
1	—	15.38%	7.69%	—	—	—	23.08%
2	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	11.54%
3	11.54%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	19.23%
4	7.69%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	15.38%
5+	11.54%	11.54%	—	—	—	—	23.08%
Total	42.31%	38.46%	19.23%	—	—	—	100%

Benfica — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.00
Mean allowed	0.77
StdDev scored	2.02
StdDev allowed	0.76
Mean total goals/game	3.77
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.207
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	—	3.85%	11.54%
1	—	15.38%	11.54%	11.54%	—	3.85%	42.31%
2	3.85%	—	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	—	15.38%
3	3.85%	7.69%	3.85%	—	—	—	15.38%
4	3.85%	—	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	11.54%
5+	3.85%	—	—	—	—	—	3.85%
Total	19.23%	23.08%	26.92%	19.23%	3.85%	7.69%	100%

Braga — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.85
Mean allowed	1.96
StdDev scored	1.38
StdDev allowed	1.66
Mean total goals/game	3.81
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.353
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.54%	3.85%	—	15.38%	—	7.69%	38.46%
1	—	3.85%	7.69%	3.85%	—	3.85%	19.23%
2	—	7.69%	7.69%	3.85%	7.69%	—	26.92%
3	—	3.85%	—	—	—	3.85%	7.69%
4	—	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	—	7.69%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.54%	23.08%	15.38%	26.92%	7.69%	15.38%	100%

Caldas — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.27
Mean allowed	2.92
StdDev scored	1.28
StdDev allowed	2.74
Mean total goals/game	4.19
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.130
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.85%	3.85%	7.69%	7.69%	—	3.85%	26.92%
1	7.69%	3.85%	11.54%	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	34.62%
2	—	7.69%	7.69%	—	3.85%	—	19.23%
3	3.85%	3.85%	7.69%	3.85%	—	—	19.23%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	15.38%	19.23%	34.62%	15.38%	7.69%	7.69%	100%

Fabril — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.31
Mean allowed	2.12
StdDev scored	1.09
StdDev allowed	1.63
Mean total goals/game	3.42
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.156
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.54%	3.85%	7.69%	11.54%	3.85%	3.85%	42.31%
1	—	—	11.54%	7.69%	—	—	19.23%
2	—	7.69%	3.85%	—	—	—	11.54%
3	—	11.54%	—	3.85%	—	—	15.38%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	7.69%	3.85%	—	—	—	11.54%
Total	11.54%	30.77%	26.92%	23.08%	3.85%	3.85%	100%

Lusitano de Evora — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.54
Mean allowed	1.88
StdDev scored	1.90
StdDev allowed	1.24
Mean total goals/game	3.42
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.260
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.54%	—	—	3.85%	—	3.85%	19.23%
1	7.69%	11.54%	3.85%	—	—	—	23.08%
2	3.85%	11.54%	—	3.85%	—	—	19.23%
3	7.69%	7.69%	—	—	—	—	15.38%
4	—	—	3.85%	—	—	—	3.85%
5+	11.54%	7.69%	—	—	—	—	19.23%
Total	42.31%	38.46%	7.69%	7.69%	—	3.85%	100%

Os Belenenses (1st) — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.50
Mean allowed	1.04
StdDev scored	2.39
StdDev allowed	1.51
Mean total goals/game	3.54
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.239
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.85%	7.69%	—	—	—	—	11.54%
1	7.69%	7.69%	—	—	—	—	15.38%
2	3.85%	11.54%	7.69%	—	—	—	23.08%
3	7.69%	—	3.85%	7.69%	—	—	19.23%
4	3.85%	—	—	—	—	—	3.85%
5+	19.23%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	26.92%
Total	46.15%	30.77%	15.38%	7.69%	—	—	100%

Porto — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.12
Mean allowed	0.85
StdDev scored	2.50
StdDev allowed	0.97
Mean total goals/game	3.96
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.207
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.69%	15.38%	—	—	3.85%	—	26.92%
1	7.69%	11.54%	3.85%	—	—	—	23.08%
2	7.69%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	15.38%
3	3.85%	7.69%	—	3.85%	3.85%	—	19.23%
4	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	—	7.69%
5+	—	7.69%	—	—	—	—	7.69%
Total	30.77%	50.00%	7.69%	3.85%	7.69%	—	100%

Sporting Clube de Portugal — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.92
Mean allowed	1.08
StdDev scored	1.92
StdDev allowed	1.13
Mean total goals/game	3.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.021
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	23.08%
1	3.85%	3.85%	11.54%	3.85%	—	7.69%	30.77%
2	—	11.54%	3.85%	—	—	7.69%	23.08%
3	3.85%	7.69%	—	3.85%	—	—	15.38%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	7.69%
Total	11.54%	26.92%	23.08%	15.38%	3.85%	19.23%	100%

Sporting Covilha — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.65
Mean allowed	2.50
StdDev scored	1.52
StdDev allowed	2.06
Mean total goals/game	4.15
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.134
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.85%	3.85%	7.69%	7.69%	11.54%	11.54%	46.15%
1	3.85%	7.69%	7.69%	—	—	7.69%	26.92%
2	3.85%	11.54%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	23.08%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	3.85%	—	3.85%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.54%	23.08%	19.23%	11.54%	15.38%	19.23%	100%

Uniao Torreense — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.88
Mean allowed	2.73
StdDev scored	1.03
StdDev allowed	2.11
Mean total goals/game	3.62
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.235
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	7.69%	15.38%
1	—	—	—	11.54%	3.85%	3.85%	19.23%
2	—	15.38%	7.69%	—	—	—	23.08%
3	15.38%	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	26.92%
4	—	3.85%	—	—	—	3.85%	7.69%
5+	7.69%	—	—	—	—	—	7.69%
Total	23.08%	26.92%	15.38%	15.38%	3.85%	15.38%	100%

Vitoria Guimaraes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.27
Mean allowed	2.12
StdDev scored	1.78
StdDev allowed	2.05
Mean total goals/game	4.38
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.525
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	3.85%	3.85%	—	3.85%	11.54%
1	11.54%	—	—	—	7.69%	3.85%	23.08%
2	7.69%	3.85%	3.85%	7.69%	—	3.85%	26.92%
3	—	7.69%	3.85%	11.54%	3.85%	—	26.92%
4	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	11.54%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	23.08%	11.54%	15.38%	23.08%	15.38%	11.54%	100%

Vitoria Setubal — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.04
Mean allowed	2.46
StdDev scored	1.22
StdDev allowed	2.10
Mean total goals/game	4.50
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.164
Games played	26

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Os Belenenses (1st)	38	32.0	+6.00
2	Benfica	41	36.6	+4.35
3	Vitoria Setubal	27	23.2	+3.75
4	Porto	41	37.6	+3.41
5	Vitoria Guimaraes	29	26.2	+2.78

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Barreirense	17	22.8	-5.79
2	Sporting Clube de Portugal	31	34.4	-3.44
3	Caldas	16	19.4	-3.38
4	Uniao Torreense	15	18.4	-3.35
5	Academica de Coimbra	21	23.5	-2.51

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Os Belenenses (1st)	5	Nov 2 – Dec 14	1 in 51
2	Sporting Covilha	3	Mar 8 – Mar 22	1 in 48
3	Braga	2	Sep 14 – Sep 21	1 in 30
4	Fabril	2	Sep 28 – Oct 5	1 in 30
5	Vitoria Guimaraes	3	Sep 21 – Oct 5	1 in 21

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Fabril	5	Feb 22 – Mar 22	1 in 153
2	Caldas	6	Oct 26 – Dec 14	1 in 119
3	Barreirense	6	Feb 8 – Mar 15	1 in 100
4	Sporting Clube de Portugal	2	Sep 21 – Sep 28	1 in 28
5	Sporting Covilha	5	Oct 12 – Nov 9	1 in 28

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Os Belenenses (1st)	11	Oct 26 – Jan 18	1 in 125
2	Porto	16	Dec 7 – Mar 22	1 in 54
3	Benfica	13	Sep 14 – Dec 21	1 in 47
4	Vitoria Setubal	5	Dec 21 – Jan 18	1 in 38
5	Fabril	5	Sep 21 – Oct 19	1 in 34

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Academica de Coimbra	7	Sep 28 – Nov 9	1 in 45
2	Os Belenenses (1st)	3	Jan 25 – Feb 8	1 in 29
3	Barreirense	7	Feb 8 – Mar 22	1 in 28
4	Caldas	8	Oct 12 – Dec 14	1 in 21
5	Uniao Torreense	8	Oct 5 – Dec 7	1 in 19

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Porto	42.00%	39.00%	14.00%	4.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Benfica	38.00%	27.00%	23.00%	10.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Os Belenenses (1st)	7.00%	9.00%	23.00%	38.00%	11.00%	5.00%	5.00%	—	1.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—
Sporting Clube de Portugal	13.00%	20.00%	31.00%	27.00%	7.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Vitoria Guimaraes	—	2.00%	4.00%	7.00%	31.00%	13.00%	9.00%	15.00%	7.00%	4.00%	3.00%	2.00%	2.00%	1.00%
Vitoria Setubal	—	—	—	2.00%	10.00%	14.00%	12.00%	16.00%	12.00%	3.00%	6.00%	14.00%	4.00%	7.00%
Braga	—	2.00%	1.00%	3.00%	9.00%	13.00%	19.00%	16.00%	11.00%	14.00%	6.00%	3.00%	2.00%	1.00%
Sporting Covilha	—	—	—	1.00%	—	5.00%	6.00%	4.00%	7.00%	11.00%	16.00%	19.00%	19.00%	12.00%
Academica de Coimbra	—	—	2.00%	2.00%	12.00%	16.00%	14.00%	6.00%	10.00%	10.00%	7.00%	10.00%	7.00%	4.00%
Lusitano de Evora	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	6.00%	10.00%	10.00%	11.00%	13.00%	15.00%	16.00%	3.00%	8.00%	6.00%
Fabril	—	1.00%	—	2.00%	5.00%	11.00%	10.00%	15.00%	11.00%	13.00%	11.00%	10.00%	5.00%	6.00%
Barreirense	—	—	1.00%	3.00%	4.00%	9.00%	9.00%	6.00%	18.00%	15.00%	15.00%	14.00%	3.00%	3.00%
Caldas	—	—	—	—	1.00%	2.00%	4.00%	6.00%	7.00%	7.00%	11.00%	14.00%	23.00%	25.00%
Uniao Torreense	—	—	—	—	1.00%	—	2.00%	5.00%	3.00%	7.00%	9.00%	11.00%	27.00%	35.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Benfica	100%	—
Os Belenenses (1st)	100%	—
Porto	100%	—
Sporting Clube de Portugal	100%	—
Vitoria Guimaraes	95.0%	5.0%
Braga	94.0%	6.0%
Lusitano de Evora	83.0%	17.0%
Barreirense	80.0%	20.0%
Academica de Coimbra	79.0%	21.0%
Fabril	79.0%	21.0%
Vitoria Setubal	75.0%	25.0%
Sporting Covilha	50.0%	50.0%
Caldas	38.0%	62.0%
Uniao Torreense	27.0%	73.0%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1958-09-14	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-1	1477	1698	38.0%	18.3%	43.7%	-10.7	0
1958-09-14	@ Barreirense	W 1-0	1698	1477	43.7%	18.3%	38.0%	+10.7	3
1958-09-14	Fabril	W 3-0	1548	1420	73.7%	17.2%	9.2%	+8.1	3
1958-09-14	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-3	1420	1548	9.2%	17.2%	73.7%	-8.1	0
1958-09-14	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 7-0	1666	1426	78.9%	16.0%	5.1%	+10.1	3
1958-09-14	@ Benfica	L 0-7	1426	1666	5.1%	16.0%	78.9%	-10.1	0
1958-09-14	Lusitano de Evora	W 5-0	1449	1477	62.0%	18.2%	19.8%	+27.0	3
1958-09-14	@ Braga	L 0-5	1477	1449	19.8%	18.2%	62.0%	-27.0	0
1958-09-14	Vitoria Setubal	D 3-3	1702	1436	79.9%	15.7%	4.5%	-3.2	1
1958-09-14	@ Porto	D 3-3	1436	1702	4.5%	15.7%	79.9%	+3.2	1
1958-09-14	Caldas	W 6-3	1449	1436	65.8%	18.0%	16.2%	+9.5	3
1958-09-14	@ Sporting Covilha	L 3-6	1436	1449	16.2%	18.0%	65.8%	-9.5	0
1958-09-14	Academica de Coimbra	W 2-1	1439	1523	56.1%	18.4%	25.5%	+7.2	3
1958-09-14	@ Uniao Torreense	L 1-2	1523	1439	25.5%	18.4%	56.1%	-7.2	0
1958-09-21	Sporting Covilha	W 2-1	1516	1459	69.2%	17.8%	13.1%	+3.9	3
1958-09-21	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 1-2	1459	1516	13.1%	17.8%	69.2%	-3.9	3
1958-09-21	Benfica	D 1-1	1426	1676	34.1%	18.2%	47.7%	+0.8	1
1958-09-21	@ Caldas	D 1-1	1676	1426	47.7%	18.2%	34.1%	-0.8	4
1958-09-21	Barreirense	D 2-2	1412	1466	59.4%	18.3%	22.3%	-1.7	1
1958-09-21	@ Fabril	D 2-2	1466	1412	22.3%	18.3%	59.4%	+1.8	1
1958-09-21	Porto	L 1-2	1450	1699	34.3%	18.2%	47.5%	-9.2	0
1958-09-21	@ Lusitano de Evora	W 2-1	1699	1450	47.5%	18.2%	34.3%	+9.2	4
1958-09-21	Braga	L 3-4	1709	1476	78.6%	16.1%	5.3%	-18.3	3
1958-09-21	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 4-3	1476	1709	5.3%	16.1%	78.6%	+18.3	6
1958-09-21	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 3-0	1416	1556	49.3%	18.4%	32.3%	+25.6	3
1958-09-21	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 0-3	1556	1416	32.3%	18.4%	49.3%	-25.6	3
1958-09-21	Uniao Torreense	W 4-0	1439	1446	64.0%	18.1%	17.9%	+20.0	4
1958-09-21	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 0-4	1446	1439	17.9%	18.1%	64.0%	-20.0	3
1958-09-28	Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-2	1468	1442	66.8%	18.0%	15.3%	-16.8	1
1958-09-28	@ Barreirense	W 2-1	1442	1468	15.3%	18.0%	66.8%	+16.9	6
1958-09-28	Caldas	D 0-0	1530	1427	72.2%	17.4%	10.4%	-4.6	4
1958-09-28	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	D 0-0	1427	1530	10.4%	17.4%	72.2%	+4.6	2
1958-09-28	Academica de Coimbra	W 5-0	1675	1520	75.1%	16.9%	8.0%	+11.4	7
1958-09-28	@ Benfica	L 0-5	1520	1675	8.0%	16.9%	75.1%	-11.4	3
1958-09-28	Fabril	L 1-2	1494	1410	71.0%	17.6%	11.4%	-17.9	6
1958-09-28	@ Braga	W 2-1	1410	1494	11.4%	17.6%	71.0%	+17.9	4
1958-09-28	Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 1-0	1708	1690	66.1%	18.0%	15.9%	+5.0	7
1958-09-28	@ Porto	L 0-1	1690	1708	15.9%	18.0%	66.1%	-5.0	3
1958-09-28	Sporting Covilha	W 2-1	1426	1455	62.0%	18.2%	19.8%	+5.8	6
1958-09-28	@ Uniao Torreense	L 1-2	1455	1426	19.8%	18.2%	62.0%	-5.8	3
1958-09-28	Lusitano de Evora	W 2-1	1459	1441	66.1%	18.0%	15.8%	+4.7	7
1958-09-28	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 1-2	1441	1459	15.8%	18.0%	66.1%	-4.7	0
1958-10-05	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-2	1508	1526	63.0%	18.2%	18.8%	-15.9	3
1958-10-05	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 2-1	1526	1508	18.8%	18.2%	63.0%	+15.9	7
1958-10-05	Barreirense	W 4-3	1432	1451	62.8%	18.2%	19.0%	+5.1	5
1958-10-05	@ Caldas	L 3-4	1451	1432	19.0%	18.2%	62.8%	-5.1	1
1958-10-05	Porto	W 1-0	1428	1713	29.6%	18.0%	52.3%	+14.0	7
1958-10-05	@ Fabril	L 0-1	1713	1428	52.3%	18.0%	29.6%	-14.0	7
1958-10-05	Uniao Torreense	W 7-1	1436	1432	65.0%	18.1%	17.0%	+23.0	3
1958-10-05	@ Lusitano de Evora	L 1-7	1432	1436	17.0%	18.1%	65.0%	-23.0	6
1958-10-05	Vitoria Setubal	W 2-0	1685	1464	78.1%	16.2%	5.7%	+3.5	6
1958-10-05	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-2	1464	1685	5.7%	16.2%	78.1%	-3.5	7
1958-10-05	Benfica	D 1-1	1449	1687	35.8%	18.2%	46.0%	+0.6	4
1958-10-05	@ Sporting Covilha	D 1-1	1687	1449	46.0%	18.2%	35.8%	-0.6	8
1958-10-05	Braga	W 3-1	1459	1476	63.0%	18.2%	18.8%	+9.5	9
1958-10-05	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-3	1476	1459	18.8%	18.2%	63.0%	-9.5	6
1958-10-12	Academica de Coimbra	W 2-1	1446	1492	60.2%	18.3%	21.6%	+6.2	4
1958-10-12	@ Barreirense	L 1-2	1492	1446	21.6%	18.3%	60.2%	-6.2	3
1958-10-12	Sporting Covilha	W 6-0	1542	1449	71.5%	17.5%	11.0%	+18.5	10
1958-10-12	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-6	1449	1542	11.0%	17.5%	71.5%	-18.5	4
1958-10-12	Caldas	W 4-2	1467	1437	67.1%	17.9%	15.0%	+6.9	9
1958-10-12	@ Braga	L 2-4	1437	1467	15.0%	17.9%	67.1%	-6.9	5
1958-10-12	Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 3-3	1459	1689	36.9%	18.3%	44.9%	+0.3	4
1958-10-12	@ Lusitano de Evora	D 3-3	1689	1459	44.9%	18.3%	36.9%	-0.3	7
1958-10-12	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 6-1	1699	1468	78.5%	16.1%	5.4%	+6.3	10
1958-10-12	@ Porto	L 1-6	1468	1699	5.4%	16.1%	78.5%	-6.3	9
1958-10-12	Benfica	L 1-5	1409	1686	30.6%	18.1%	51.3%	-26.6	6
1958-10-12	@ Uniao Torreense	W 5-1	1686	1409	51.3%	18.1%	30.6%	+26.6	11
1958-10-12	Fabril	D 3-3	1461	1442	66.2%	18.0%	15.8%	-2.0	8
1958-10-12	@ Vitoria Setubal	D 3-3	1442	1461	15.8%	18.0%	66.2%	+2.0	8
1958-10-19	Braga	D 1-1	1486	1474	65.7%	18.0%	16.3%	-3.2	4
1958-10-19	@ Academica de Coimbra	D 1-1	1474	1486	16.3%	18.0%	65.7%	+3.2	10
1958-10-19	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 3-2	1713	1560	75.0%	17.0%	8.1%	+2.3	14
1958-10-19	@ Benfica	L 2-3	1560	1713	8.1%	17.0%	75.0%	-2.4	10
1958-10-19	Porto	D 2-2	1430	1706	30.8%	18.1%	51.1%	+0.9	6
1958-10-19	@ Caldas	D 2-2	1706	1430	51.1%	18.1%	30.8%	-0.9	11
1958-10-19	Lusitano de Evora	D 0-0	1444	1460	63.2%	18.2%	18.6%	-3.2	9
1958-10-19	@ Fabril	D 0-0	1460	1444	18.6%	18.2%	63.2%	+3.2	5
1958-10-19	Uniao Torreense	W 4-0	1688	1382	81.2%	15.1%	3.6%	+4.1	10
1958-10-19	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-4	1382	1688	3.6%	15.1%	81.2%	-4.1	6
1958-10-19	Barreirense	L 0-1	1431	1452	62.7%	18.2%	19.1%	-16.8	4
1958-10-19	@ Sporting Covilha	W 1-0	1452	1431	19.1%	18.2%	62.7%	+16.8	7
1958-10-19	Vitoria Setubal	W 4-1	1462	1458	64.9%	18.1%	17.0%	+12.3	12
1958-10-19	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-4	1458	1462	17.0%	18.1%	64.9%	-12.3	8
1958-10-26	Benfica	L 1-3	1469	1715	34.6%	18.2%	47.2%	-16.1	7
1958-10-26	@ Barreirense	W 3-1	1715	1469	47.2%	18.2%	34.6%	+16.2	17
1958-10-26	Sporting Covilha	W 3-1	1477	1414	69.5%	17.7%	12.7%	+6.7	13
1958-10-26	@ Braga	L 1-3	1414	1477	12.7%	17.7%	69.5%	-6.7	4
1958-10-26	Vitoria Guimaraes	L 0-3	1463	1474	63.6%	18.1%	18.3%	-46.5	5
1958-10-26	@ Lusitano de Evora	W 3-0	1474	1463	18.3%	18.1%	63.6%	+46.5	15
1958-10-26	Academica de Coimbra	D 1-1	1705	1483	78.1%	16.2%	5.7%	-4.9	12
1958-10-26	@ Porto	D 1-1	1483	1705	5.7%	16.2%	78.1%	+4.9	5
1958-10-26	Fabril	W 1-0	1693	1441	79.3%	15.8%	4.8%	+1.6	13
1958-10-26	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-1	1441	1693	4.8%	15.8%	79.3%	-1.5	9
1958-10-26	Os Belenenses (1st)	D 0-0	1378	1558	43.9%	18.4%	37.7%	-0.4	7
1958-10-26	@ Uniao Torreense	D 0-0	1558	1378	37.7%	18.4%	43.9%	+0.4	11
1958-10-26	Caldas	W 4-2	1446	1431	65.9%	18.0%	16.1%	+7.4	11
1958-10-26	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 2-4	1431	1446	16.1%	18.0%	65.9%	-7.4	6
1958-11-02	Vitoria Setubal	L 2-3	1488	1454	67.5%	17.9%	14.6%	-16.1	5
1958-11-02	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 3-2	1454	1488	14.6%	17.9%	67.5%	+16.1	14
1958-11-02	Barreirense	W 1-0	1558	1453	72.4%	17.4%	10.3%	+3.3	14
1958-11-02	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-1	1453	1558	10.3%	17.4%	72.4%	-3.3	7
1958-11-02	Braga	W 5-1	1731	1484	79.2%	15.9%	4.9%	+4.7	20
1958-11-02	@ Benfica	L 1-5	1484	1731	4.9%	15.9%	79.2%	-4.8	13
1958-11-02	Lusitano de Evora	L 1-2	1423	1416	65.2%	18.1%	16.7%	-16.5	6
1958-11-02	@ Caldas	W 2-1	1416	1423	16.7%	18.1%	65.2%	+16.5	8
1958-11-02	Uniao Torreense	W 3-2	1439	1378	69.5%	17.7%	12.8%	+3.7	12
1958-11-02	@ Fabril	L 2-3	1378	1439	12.8%	17.7%	69.5%	-3.7	7
1958-11-02	Porto	L 0-4	1408	1700	28.8%	18.0%	53.2%	-30.2	4
1958-11-02	@ Sporting Covilha	W 4-0	1700	1408	53.2%	18.0%	28.8%	+30.2	15
1958-11-02	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-3	1521	1694	44.8%	18.4%	36.8%	-20.0	15
1958-11-02	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	W 3-1	1694	1521	36.8%	18.4%	44.8%	+20.0	16
1958-11-09	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-2	1479	1562	56.2%	18.4%	25.4%	-14.2	13
1958-11-09	@ Braga	W 2-1	1562	1479	25.4%	18.4%	56.2%	+14.2	17
1958-11-09	Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-2	1443	1501	59.0%	18.3%	22.7%	-14.9	12
1958-11-09	@ Fabril	W 2-1	1501	1443	22.7%	18.3%	59.0%	+14.9	18
1958-11-09	Academica de Coimbra	W 5-1	1433	1472	60.9%	18.3%	20.8%	+19.1	11
1958-11-09	@ Lusitano de Evora	L 1-5	1472	1433	20.8%	18.3%	60.9%	-19.1	5
1958-11-09	Benfica	D 0-0	1730	1736	64.1%	18.1%	17.8%	-3.3	16
1958-11-09	@ Porto	D 0-0	1736	1730	17.8%	18.1%	64.1%	+3.3	21
1958-11-09	Caldas	W 3-0	1714	1407	81.3%	15.1%	3.6%	+3.2	19
1958-11-09	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-3	1407	1714	3.6%	15.1%	81.3%	-3.2	6
1958-11-09	Barreirense	L 0-1	1374	1449	57.1%	18.4%	24.5%	-15.3	7
1958-11-09	@ Uniao Torreense	W 1-0	1449	1374	24.5%	18.4%	57.1%	+15.3	10
1958-11-09	Sporting Covilha	W 2-0	1470	1377	71.5%	17.5%	11.0%	+6.7	17
1958-11-09	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 0-2	1377	1470	11.0%	17.5%	71.5%	-6.7	4
1958-11-30	Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 1-0	1453	1717	32.2%	18.1%	49.6%	+13.4	8
1958-11-30	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 0-1	1717	1453	49.6%	18.1%	32.2%	-13.4	19
1958-11-30	Braga	D 1-1	1465	1465	64.6%	18.1%	17.3%	-3.1	11
1958-11-30	@ Barreirense	D 1-1	1465	1465	17.3%	18.1%	64.6%	+3.1	14
1958-11-30	Porto	W 1-0	1576	1727	47.8%	18.4%	33.8%	+9.7	20
1958-11-30	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-1	1727	1576	33.8%	18.4%	47.8%	-9.7	16
1958-11-30	Vitoria Setubal	W 3-0	1739	1476	79.8%	15.7%	4.6%	+4.0	24
1958-11-30	@ Benfica	L 0-3	1476	1739	4.6%	15.7%	79.8%	-4.0	17
1958-11-30	Fabril	L 0-3	1404	1428	62.4%	18.2%	19.4%	-45.7	6
1958-11-30	@ Caldas	W 3-0	1428	1404	19.4%	18.2%	62.4%	+45.7	15
1958-11-30	Lusitano de Evora	W 2-1	1371	1452	56.4%	18.4%	25.2%	+7.1	7
1958-11-30	@ Sporting Covilha	L 1-2	1452	1371	25.2%	18.4%	56.4%	-7.1	11
1958-11-30	Uniao Torreense	W 8-0	1516	1359	75.2%	16.9%	7.9%	+17.6	21
1958-11-30	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 0-8	1359	1516	7.9%	16.9%	75.2%	-17.6	7
1958-12-07	Academica de Coimbra	W 1-0	1474	1466	65.2%	18.1%	16.7%	+5.2	18
1958-12-07	@ Fabril	L 0-1	1466	1474	16.7%	18.1%	65.2%	-5.2	8
1958-12-07	Benfica	D 0-0	1445	1743	28.1%	17.9%	54.0%	+1.8	12
1958-12-07	@ Lusitano de Evora	D 0-0	1743	1445	54.0%	17.9%	28.1%	-1.8	25
1958-12-07	Barreirense	W 7-0	1717	1462	79.5%	15.8%	4.8%	+9.3	19
1958-12-07	@ Porto	L 0-7	1462	1717	4.8%	15.8%	79.5%	-9.3	11
1958-12-07	Sporting Covilha	W 8-1	1704	1378	81.9%	14.8%	3.3%	+5.2	22
1958-12-07	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-8	1378	1704	3.3%	14.8%	81.9%	-5.2	7
1958-12-07	Braga	D 1-1	1341	1468	51.0%	18.4%	30.6%	-1.2	8
1958-12-07	@ Uniao Torreense	D 1-1	1468	1341	30.6%	18.4%	51.0%	+1.2	15
1958-12-07	Caldas	W 3-0	1533	1358	76.1%	16.7%	7.2%	+6.4	24
1958-12-07	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 0-3	1358	1533	7.2%	16.7%	76.1%	-6.4	6
1958-12-07	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-5	1472	1585	52.6%	18.4%	28.9%	-62.5	17
1958-12-07	@ Vitoria Setubal	W 5-0	1585	1472	28.9%	18.4%	52.6%	+62.5	23
1958-12-14	Vitoria Guimaraes	D 2-2	1461	1540	56.7%	18.4%	24.9%	-1.5	9
1958-12-14	@ Academica de Coimbra	D 2-2	1540	1461	24.9%	18.4%	56.7%	+1.5	25
1958-12-14	Vitoria Setubal	W 4-3	1452	1410	68.1%	17.9%	14.1%	+3.9	14
1958-12-14	@ Barreirense	L 3-4	1410	1452	14.1%	17.9%	68.1%	-3.9	17
1958-12-14	Lusitano de Evora	W 3-0	1648	1446	77.3%	16.4%	6.3%	+5.6	26
1958-12-14	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-3	1446	1648	6.3%	16.4%	77.3%	-5.6	12
1958-12-14	Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 4-0	1741	1709	67.3%	17.9%	14.8%	+16.8	28
1958-12-14	@ Benfica	L 0-4	1709	1741	14.8%	17.9%	67.3%	-16.8	22
1958-12-14	Porto	L 1-2	1469	1726	33.2%	18.1%	48.7%	-9.0	15
1958-12-14	@ Braga	W 2-1	1726	1469	48.7%	18.1%	33.2%	+9.0	22
1958-12-14	Fabril	D 2-2	1373	1479	53.5%	18.4%	28.1%	-1.2	8
1958-12-14	@ Sporting Covilha	D 2-2	1479	1373	28.1%	18.4%	53.5%	+1.2	19
1958-12-14	Caldas	W 1-0	1340	1352	63.5%	18.1%	18.3%	+5.7	11
1958-12-14	@ Uniao Torreense	L 0-1	1352	1340	18.3%	18.1%	63.5%	-5.7	6
1958-12-21	Academica de Coimbra	W 2-1	1346	1459	52.6%	18.4%	28.9%	+8.1	9
1958-12-21	@ Caldas	L 1-2	1459	1346	28.9%	18.4%	52.6%	-8.1	9
1958-12-21	Benfica	L 1-4	1480	1758	30.5%	18.1%	51.4%	-20.5	19
1958-12-21	@ Fabril	W 4-1	1758	1480	51.4%	18.1%	30.5%	+20.5	31
1958-12-21	Barreirense	W 3-1	1441	1456	63.2%	18.2%	18.6%	+9.5	15
1958-12-21	@ Lusitano de Evora	L 1-3	1456	1441	18.6%	18.2%	63.2%	-9.5	14
1958-12-21	Uniao Torreense	W 5-0	1735	1346	83.7%	13.9%	2.4%	+3.2	25
1958-12-21	@ Porto	L 0-5	1346	1735	2.4%	13.9%	83.7%	-3.2	11
1958-12-21	Os Belenenses (1st)	D 1-1	1692	1654	67.8%	17.9%	14.3%	-3.5	23
1958-12-21	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 1-1	1654	1692	14.3%	17.9%	67.8%	+3.5	27
1958-12-21	Sporting Covilha	D 3-3	1541	1371	75.8%	16.8%	7.4%	-2.9	26
1958-12-21	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	D 3-3	1371	1541	7.4%	16.8%	75.8%	+2.9	9
1958-12-21	Braga	W 2-0	1406	1460	59.4%	18.3%	22.3%	+12.8	20
1958-12-21	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 0-2	1460	1406	22.3%	18.3%	59.4%	-12.8	15
1958-12-28	Uniao Torreense	W 5-0	1451	1342	72.6%	17.3%	10.1%	+14.4	12
1958-12-28	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 0-5	1342	1451	10.1%	17.3%	72.6%	-14.4	11
1958-12-28	Sporting Covilha	D 0-0	1354	1374	62.7%	18.2%	19.1%	-3.1	10
1958-12-28	@ Caldas	D 0-0	1374	1354	19.1%	18.2%	62.7%	+3.1	10
1958-12-28	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 2-4	1460	1657	41.4%	18.4%	40.3%	-16.8	19
1958-12-28	@ Fabril	W 4-2	1657	1460	40.3%	18.4%	41.4%	+16.8	30
1958-12-28	Braga	W 3-1	1450	1447	64.9%	18.1%	17.0%	+8.7	18
1958-12-28	@ Lusitano de Evora	L 1-3	1447	1450	17.0%	18.1%	64.9%	-8.7	15
1958-12-28	Barreirense	W 5-1	1689	1447	79.0%	16.0%	5.1%	+4.9	26
1958-12-28	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-5	1447	1689	5.1%	16.0%	79.0%	-4.9	14
1958-12-28	Benfica	W 2-1	1538	1779	35.4%	18.2%	46.4%	+11.9	29
1958-12-28	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-2	1779	1538	46.4%	18.2%	35.4%	-11.9	31
1958-12-28	Porto	D 3-3	1419	1738	25.7%	17.8%	56.5%	+1.2	21
1958-12-28	@ Vitoria Setubal	D 3-3	1738	1419	56.5%	17.8%	25.7%	-1.2	26
1959-01-04	Fabril	W 2-0	1442	1443	64.5%	18.1%	17.4%	+10.3	17
1959-01-04	@ Barreirense	L 0-2	1443	1442	17.4%	18.1%	64.5%	-10.3	19
1959-01-04	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 2-0	1674	1550	73.4%	17.2%	9.4%	+5.7	33
1959-01-04	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-2	1550	1674	9.4%	17.2%	73.4%	-5.7	29
1959-01-04	Caldas	W 3-0	1767	1351	84.4%	13.5%	2.1%	+1.7	34
1959-01-04	@ Benfica	L 0-3	1351	1767	2.1%	13.5%	84.4%	-1.7	10
1959-01-04	Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 0-0	1438	1694	33.4%	18.2%	48.4%	+1.0	16
1959-01-04	@ Braga	D 0-0	1694	1438	48.4%	18.2%	33.4%	-1.0	27
1959-01-04	Lusitano de Evora	W 2-0	1737	1459	80.3%	15.5%	4.2%	+2.5	29
1959-01-04	@ Porto	L 0-2	1459	1737	4.2%	15.5%	80.3%	-2.5	18
1959-01-04	Academica de Coimbra	W 3-1	1377	1466	55.6%	18.4%	26.0%	+12.7	13
1959-01-04	@ Sporting Covilha	L 1-3	1466	1377	26.0%	18.4%	55.6%	-12.7	12
1959-01-04	Vitoria Setubal	D 4-4	1328	1420	55.2%	18.4%	26.4%	-1.0	12
1959-01-04	@ Uniao Torreense	D 4-4	1420	1328	26.4%	18.4%	55.2%	+1.0	22
1959-01-11	Benfica	L 0-3	1453	1769	26.1%	17.8%	56.1%	-21.2	12
1959-01-11	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 3-0	1769	1453	56.1%	17.8%	26.1%	+21.2	37
1959-01-11	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-6	1349	1679	24.5%	17.7%	57.8%	-26.7	10
1959-01-11	@ Caldas	W 6-1	1679	1349	57.8%	17.7%	24.5%	+26.7	36
1959-01-11	Braga	W 3-1	1433	1439	64.0%	18.1%	17.9%	+9.1	22
1959-01-11	@ Fabril	L 1-3	1439	1433	17.9%	18.1%	64.0%	-9.1	16
1959-01-11	Vitoria Setubal	L 1-3	1456	1421	67.5%	17.9%	14.6%	-29.5	18
1959-01-11	@ Lusitano de Evora	W 3-1	1421	1456	14.6%	17.9%	67.5%	+29.5	25
1959-01-11	Porto	D 2-2	1693	1740	60.1%	18.3%	21.6%	-1.8	28
1959-01-11	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 2-2	1740	1693	21.6%	18.3%	60.1%	+1.8	30
1959-01-11	Uniao Torreense	W 3-0	1390	1327	69.6%	17.7%	12.7%	+11.1	16
1959-01-11	@ Sporting Covilha	L 0-3	1327	1390	12.7%	17.7%	69.6%	-11.1	12
1959-01-11	Barreirense	W 3-2	1544	1452	71.5%	17.5%	11.0%	+3.2	32
1959-01-11	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 2-3	1452	1544	11.0%	17.5%	71.5%	-3.2	17
1959-01-18	Caldas	W 3-2	1449	1323	73.6%	17.2%	9.2%	+2.7	20
1959-01-18	@ Barreirense	L 2-3	1323	1449	9.2%	17.2%	73.6%	-2.7	10
1959-01-18	Academica de Coimbra	W 3-1	1706	1432	80.2%	15.5%	4.3%	+2.2	39
1959-01-18	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-3	1432	1706	4.3%	15.5%	80.2%	-2.3	12
1959-01-18	Sporting Covilha	W 2-1	1790	1401	83.7%	13.9%	2.4%	+0.7	40
1959-01-18	@ Benfica	L 1-2	1401	1790	2.4%	13.9%	83.7%	-0.7	16
1959-01-18	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 3-1	1430	1548	52.1%	18.4%	29.5%	+14.1	19
1959-01-18	@ Braga	L 1-3	1548	1430	29.5%	18.4%	52.1%	-14.1	32
1959-01-18	Fabril	W 3-0	1742	1442	81.0%	15.2%	3.8%	+3.3	33
1959-01-18	@ Porto	L 0-3	1442	1742	3.8%	15.2%	81.0%	-3.3	22
1959-01-18	Lusitano de Evora	W 2-0	1316	1427	52.9%	18.4%	28.7%	+16.0	15
1959-01-18	@ Uniao Torreense	L 0-2	1427	1316	28.7%	18.4%	52.9%	-16.0	18
1959-01-18	Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 1-0	1450	1691	35.4%	18.2%	46.4%	+12.6	28
1959-01-18	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 0-1	1691	1450	46.4%	18.2%	35.4%	-12.6	28
1959-01-25	Barreirense	W 3-2	1430	1452	62.6%	18.2%	19.2%	+5.3	15
1959-01-25	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 2-3	1452	1430	19.2%	18.2%	62.6%	-5.3	20
1959-01-25	Uniao Torreense	W 2-0	1790	1332	85.5%	12.9%	1.6%	+0.9	43
1959-01-25	@ Benfica	L 0-2	1332	1790	1.6%	12.9%	85.5%	-0.9	15
1959-01-25	Braga	D 2-2	1320	1444	51.2%	18.4%	30.3%	-0.9	11
1959-01-25	@ Caldas	D 2-2	1444	1320	30.3%	18.4%	51.2%	+1.0	20
1959-01-25	Vitoria Setubal	W 3-2	1438	1463	62.3%	18.2%	19.5%	+5.4	25
1959-01-25	@ Fabril	L 2-3	1463	1438	19.5%	18.2%	62.3%	-5.4	28
1959-01-25	Lusitano de Evora	W 3-1	1678	1411	79.9%	15.6%	4.5%	+2.3	31
1959-01-25	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-3	1411	1678	4.5%	15.6%	79.9%	-2.3	18
1959-01-25	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 2-1	1401	1708	27.0%	17.9%	55.1%	+13.9	19
1959-01-25	@ Sporting Covilha	L 1-2	1708	1401	55.1%	17.9%	27.0%	-13.9	39
1959-01-25	Porto	L 0-6	1533	1745	39.4%	18.3%	42.3%	-57.7	32
1959-01-25	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	W 6-0	1745	1533	42.3%	18.3%	39.4%	+57.7	36
1959-02-01	Sporting Covilha	W 6-1	1446	1414	67.2%	17.9%	14.8%	+17.2	23
1959-02-01	@ Barreirense	L 1-6	1414	1446	14.8%	17.9%	67.2%	-17.2	19
1959-02-01	Benfica	D 1-1	1695	1791	54.6%	18.4%	27.0%	-1.7	40
1959-02-01	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	D 1-1	1791	1695	27.0%	18.4%	54.6%	+1.7	44
1959-02-01	Academica de Coimbra	D 1-1	1445	1435	65.5%	18.0%	16.5%	-3.2	21
1959-02-01	@ Braga	D 1-1	1435	1445	16.5%	18.0%	65.5%	+3.2	16
1959-02-01	Fabril	W 2-1	1409	1444	61.3%	18.2%	20.4%	+5.9	21
1959-02-01	@ Lusitano de Evora	L 1-2	1444	1409	20.4%	18.2%	61.3%	-5.9	25
1959-02-01	Caldas	W 10-0	1803	1319	86.1%	12.5%	1.4%	+3.7	39
1959-02-01	@ Porto	L 0-10	1319	1803	1.4%	12.5%	86.1%	-3.7	11
1959-02-01	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-2	1331	1681	22.5%	17.6%	59.9%	-12.8	15
1959-02-01	@ Uniao Torreense	W 2-0	1681	1331	59.9%	17.6%	22.5%	+12.8	34
1959-02-01	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 1-0	1458	1476	62.9%	18.2%	18.9%	+5.9	31
1959-02-01	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 0-1	1476	1458	18.9%	18.2%	62.9%	-5.9	32
1959-02-08	Porto	L 0-1	1438	1806	20.7%	17.4%	61.9%	-6.3	16
1959-02-08	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 1-0	1806	1438	61.9%	17.4%	20.7%	+6.3	42
1959-02-08	Uniao Torreense	D 1-1	1693	1318	83.3%	14.1%	2.5%	-5.4	41
1959-02-08	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	D 1-1	1318	1693	2.5%	14.1%	83.3%	+5.5	16
1959-02-08	Barreirense	W 6-0	1793	1464	82.0%	14.8%	3.2%	+5.3	47
1959-02-08	@ Benfica	L 0-6	1464	1793	3.2%	14.8%	82.0%	-5.3	23
1959-02-08	Vitoria Setubal	W 4-1	1315	1464	48.1%	18.4%	33.4%	+22.2	14
1959-02-08	@ Caldas	L 1-4	1464	1315	33.4%	18.4%	48.1%	-22.2	31
1959-02-08	Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 1-1	1438	1693	33.4%	18.2%	48.4%	+0.9	26
1959-02-08	@ Fabril	D 1-1	1693	1438	48.4%	18.2%	33.4%	-0.9	35
1959-02-08	Braga	L 0-3	1397	1442	60.3%	18.3%	21.4%	-44.2	19
1959-02-08	@ Sporting Covilha	W 3-0	1442	1397	21.4%	18.3%	60.3%	+44.2	24
1959-02-08	Lusitano de Evora	W 3-0	1470	1415	69.0%	17.8%	13.2%	+11.6	35
1959-02-08	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 0-3	1415	1470	13.2%	17.8%	69.0%	-11.5	21
1959-02-15	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-3	1458	1687	36.9%	18.3%	44.8%	-17.0	23
1959-02-15	@ Barreirense	W 3-1	1687	1458	44.8%	18.3%	36.9%	+17.0	44
1959-02-15	Benfica	L 2-4	1486	1798	26.5%	17.8%	55.7%	-11.5	24
1959-02-15	@ Braga	W 4-2	1798	1486	55.7%	17.8%	26.5%	+11.5	50
1959-02-15	Caldas	W 3-1	1403	1337	69.8%	17.7%	12.6%	+6.6	24
1959-02-15	@ Lusitano de Evora	L 1-3	1337	1403	12.6%	17.7%	69.8%	-6.6	14
1959-02-15	Sporting Covilha	W 5-2	1813	1353	85.5%	12.8%	1.6%	+1.0	45
1959-02-15	@ Porto	L 2-5	1353	1813	1.6%	12.8%	85.5%	-1.0	19
1959-02-15	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 4-1	1692	1481	77.7%	16.3%	6.0%	+4.5	38
1959-02-15	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-4	1481	1692	6.0%	16.3%	77.7%	-4.5	35
1959-02-15	Fabril	L 1-2	1324	1439	52.4%	18.4%	29.2%	-13.3	16
1959-02-15	@ Uniao Torreense	W 2-1	1439	1324	29.2%	18.4%	52.4%	+13.3	29
1959-02-15	Academica de Coimbra	W 1-0	1441	1432	65.4%	18.1%	16.5%	+5.2	34
1959-02-15	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 0-1	1432	1441	16.5%	18.1%	65.4%	-5.2	16
1959-02-22	Lusitano de Evora	W 1-0	1427	1410	66.0%	18.0%	16.0%	+5.0	19
1959-02-22	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 0-1	1410	1427	16.0%	18.0%	66.0%	-5.0	24
1959-02-22	Uniao Torreense	L 1-2	1441	1310	73.8%	17.2%	9.0%	-18.6	23
1959-02-22	@ Barreirense	W 2-1	1310	1441	9.0%	17.2%	73.8%	+18.6	19
1959-02-22	Braga	W 7-0	1704	1475	78.5%	16.1%	5.4%	+10.6	47
1959-02-22	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-7	1475	1704	5.4%	16.1%	78.5%	-10.6	24
1959-02-22	Porto	D 1-1	1810	1814	64.3%	18.1%	17.6%	-3.0	51
1959-02-22	@ Benfica	D 1-1	1814	1810	17.6%	18.1%	64.3%	+3.0	46
1959-02-22	Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 0-0	1331	1697	20.9%	17.4%	61.7%	+2.9	15
1959-02-22	@ Caldas	D 0-0	1697	1331	61.7%	17.4%	20.9%	-2.9	39
1959-02-22	Vitoria Setubal	W 5-2	1352	1447	54.9%	18.4%	26.7%	+15.9	22
1959-02-22	@ Sporting Covilha	L 2-5	1447	1352	26.7%	18.4%	54.9%	-15.9	34
1959-02-22	Fabril	W 5-0	1477	1452	66.7%	18.0%	15.3%	+21.4	38
1959-02-22	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 0-5	1452	1477	15.3%	18.0%	66.7%	-21.4	29
1959-03-01	Barreirense	W 2-0	1464	1422	68.0%	17.9%	14.1%	+8.5	27
1959-03-01	@ Braga	L 0-2	1422	1464	14.1%	17.9%	68.0%	-8.5	23
1959-03-01	Caldas	L 1-3	1431	1334	71.8%	17.4%	10.7%	-31.4	29
1959-03-01	@ Fabril	W 3-1	1334	1431	10.7%	17.4%	71.8%	+31.4	18
1959-03-01	Sporting Covilha	W 5-2	1405	1368	67.6%	17.9%	14.5%	+9.2	27
1959-03-01	@ Lusitano de Evora	L 2-5	1368	1405	14.5%	17.9%	67.6%	-9.2	22
1959-03-01	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 7-0	1817	1715	72.1%	17.4%	10.5%	+20.5	49
1959-03-01	@ Porto	L 0-7	1715	1817	10.5%	17.4%	72.1%	-20.5	47
1959-03-01	Academica de Coimbra	D 1-1	1694	1432	79.7%	15.7%	4.6%	-5.1	40
1959-03-01	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 1-1	1432	1694	4.6%	15.7%	79.7%	+5.1	20
1959-03-01	Vitoria Guimaraes	D 2-2	1329	1498	45.3%	18.4%	36.3%	-0.4	20
1959-03-01	@ Uniao Torreense	D 2-2	1498	1329	36.3%	18.4%	45.3%	+0.4	39
1959-03-01	Benfica	D 2-2	1431	1807	19.9%	17.4%	62.7%	+2.0	35
1959-03-01	@ Vitoria Setubal	D 2-2	1807	1431	62.7%	17.4%	19.9%	-2.0	52
1959-03-08	Fabril	W 2-0	1437	1399	67.7%	17.9%	14.4%	+8.6	23
1959-03-08	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 0-2	1399	1437	14.4%	17.9%	67.7%	-8.6	29
1959-03-08	Porto	L 1-2	1414	1837	16.0%	16.9%	67.0%	-4.7	23
1959-03-08	@ Barreirense	W 2-1	1837	1414	67.0%	16.9%	16.0%	+4.7	52
1959-03-08	Vitoria Setubal	W 9-1	1695	1433	79.7%	15.7%	4.6%	+8.3	50
1959-03-08	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-9	1433	1695	4.6%	15.7%	79.7%	-8.3	35
1959-03-08	Lusitano de Evora	W 4-0	1805	1414	83.8%	13.9%	2.3%	+2.6	55
1959-03-08	@ Benfica	L 0-4	1414	1805	2.3%	13.9%	83.8%	-2.6	27
1959-03-08	Uniao Torreense	W 4-0	1473	1329	74.5%	17.0%	8.4%	+9.8	30
1959-03-08	@ Braga	L 0-4	1329	1473	8.4%	17.0%	74.5%	-9.8	20
1959-03-08	Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-2	1365	1499	50.1%	18.4%	31.5%	-12.8	18
1959-03-08	@ Caldas	W 2-1	1499	1365	31.5%	18.4%	50.1%	+12.8	42
1959-03-08	Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 1-0	1359	1689	24.5%	17.7%	57.8%	+15.4	25
1959-03-08	@ Sporting Covilha	L 0-1	1689	1359	57.8%	17.7%	24.5%	-15.4	40
1959-03-15	Uniao Torreense	W 2-1	1352	1319	67.4%	17.9%	14.7%	+4.4	21
1959-03-15	@ Caldas	L 1-2	1319	1352	14.7%	17.9%	67.4%	-4.4	20
1959-03-15	Sporting Covilha	L 1-2	1391	1374	66.0%	18.0%	16.0%	-16.6	29
1959-03-15	@ Fabril	W 2-1	1374	1391	16.0%	18.0%	66.0%	+16.6	28
1959-03-15	Os Belenenses (1st)	D 0-0	1411	1703	28.9%	18.0%	53.2%	+1.7	28
1959-03-15	@ Lusitano de Evora	D 0-0	1703	1411	53.2%	18.0%	28.9%	-1.7	51
1959-03-15	Braga	W 3-2	1842	1482	82.9%	14.4%	2.8%	+0.8	55
1959-03-15	@ Porto	L 2-3	1482	1842	2.8%	14.4%	82.9%	-0.8	30
1959-03-15	Benfica	W 2-1	1674	1807	50.0%	18.4%	31.5%	+8.6	43
1959-03-15	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-2	1807	1674	31.5%	18.4%	50.0%	-8.7	55
1959-03-15	Academica de Coimbra	L 4-5	1512	1445	69.8%	17.7%	12.5%	-16.1	42
1959-03-15	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	W 5-4	1445	1512	12.5%	17.7%	69.8%	+16.1	26
1959-03-15	Barreirense	W 3-1	1424	1409	65.9%	18.0%	16.1%	+8.3	38
1959-03-15	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 1-3	1409	1424	16.1%	18.0%	65.9%	-8.3	23
1959-03-22	Caldas	W 11-0	1461	1357	72.3%	17.4%	10.3%	+31.1	29
1959-03-22	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 0-11	1357	1461	10.3%	17.4%	72.3%	-31.1	21
1959-03-22	Lusitano de Evora	D 2-2	1401	1413	63.5%	18.1%	18.3%	-2.2	24
1959-03-22	@ Barreirense	D 2-2	1413	1401	18.3%	18.1%	63.5%	+2.2	29
1959-03-22	Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 2-1	1701	1682	66.2%	18.0%	15.8%	+4.7	54
1959-03-22	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-2	1682	1701	15.8%	18.0%	66.2%	-4.7	43
1959-03-22	Fabril	W 7-1	1799	1374	84.7%	13.4%	2.0%	+2.6	58
1959-03-22	@ Benfica	L 1-7	1374	1799	2.0%	13.4%	84.7%	-2.6	29
1959-03-22	Vitoria Setubal	W 3-2	1482	1433	68.6%	17.8%	13.6%	+3.9	33
1959-03-22	@ Braga	L 2-3	1433	1482	13.6%	17.8%	68.6%	-3.9	38
1959-03-22	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 3-1	1391	1495	53.7%	18.4%	27.9%	+13.5	31
1959-03-22	@ Sporting Covilha	L 1-3	1495	1391	27.9%	18.4%	53.7%	-13.5	42
1959-03-22	Porto	L 0-3	1314	1842	9.6%	15.7%	74.7%	-8.2	20
1959-03-22	@ Uniao Torreense	W 3-0	1842	1314	74.7%	15.7%	9.6%	+8.2	58

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1958-09-21	5.34%	Braga	1476	4	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	1709	3
2	1959-02-22	9.03%	Uniao Torreense	1310	2	@ Barreirense	1441	1
3	1959-03-01	10.73%	Caldas	1334	3	@ Fabril	1431	1
4	1958-09-28	11.43%	Fabril	1410	2	@ Braga	1494	1
5	1959-03-15	12.51%	Academica de Coimbra	1445	5	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	1512	4
6	1959-01-11	14.56%	Vitoria Setubal	1421	3	@ Lusitano de Evora	1456	1
7	1958-11-02	14.64%	Vitoria Setubal	1454	3	@ Academica de Coimbra	1488	2
8	1958-09-28	15.26%	Vitoria Guimaraes	1442	2	@ Barreirense	1468	1
9	1959-03-15	15.99%	Sporting Covilha	1374	2	@ Fabril	1391	1
10	1958-11-02	16.71%	Lusitano de Evora	1416	2	@ Caldas	1423	1
11	1958-10-26	18.28%	Vitoria Guimaraes	1474	3	@ Lusitano de Evora	1463	0
12	1958-10-05	18.80%	Os Belenenses (1st)	1526	2	@ Academica de Coimbra	1508	1
13	1958-10-19	19.14%	Barreirense	1452	1	@ Sporting Covilha	1431	0
14	1958-11-30	19.41%	Fabril	1428	3	@ Caldas	1404	0
15	1959-02-08	21.37%	Braga	1442	3	@ Sporting Covilha	1397	0
16	1958-11-09	22.69%	Vitoria Guimaraes	1501	2	@ Fabril	1443	1
17	1959-03-08	24.52%	@ Sporting Covilha	1359	1	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1689	0
18	1958-11-09	24.54%	Barreirense	1449	1	@ Uniao Torreense	1374	0
19	1958-11-09	25.37%	Os Belenenses (1st)	1562	2	@ Braga	1479	1
20	1959-01-25	26.98%	@ Sporting Covilha	1401	2	Os Belenenses (1st)	1708	1
21	1958-12-07	28.93%	Os Belenenses (1st)	1585	5	@ Vitoria Setubal	1472	0
22	1959-02-15	29.18%	Fabril	1439	2	@ Uniao Torreense	1324	1
23	1958-10-05	29.64%	@ Fabril	1428	1	Porto	1713	0
24	1959-03-08	31.50%	Vitoria Guimaraes	1499	2	@ Caldas	1365	1
25	1958-11-30	32.23%	@ Academica de Coimbra	1453	1	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1717	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1958-12-07	62.47	Os Belenenses (1st)	5	1585	28.93%	@ Vitoria Setubal	0	1472	52.64%
2	1959-01-25	57.70	Porto	6	1745	42.28%	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	0	1533	39.40%
3	1958-10-26	46.55	Vitoria Guimaraes	3	1474	18.28%	@ Lusitano de Evora	0	1463	63.56%
4	1958-11-30	45.68	Fabril	3	1428	19.41%	@ Caldas	0	1404	62.38%
5	1959-02-08	44.20	Braga	3	1442	21.37%	@ Sporting Covilha	0	1397	60.34%
6	1959-03-01	31.42	Caldas	3	1334	10.73%	@ Fabril	1	1431	71.82%
7	1959-03-22	31.12	@ Academica de Coimbra	11	1461	72.30%	Caldas	0	1357	10.32%
8	1958-11-02	30.21	Porto	4	1700	53.22%	@ Sporting Covilha	0	1408	28.81%
9	1959-01-11	29.51	Vitoria Setubal	3	1421	14.56%	@ Lusitano de Evora	1	1456	67.54%
10	1958-09-14	27.00	@ Braga	5	1449	61.98%	Lusitano de Evora	0	1477	19.80%
11	1959-01-11	26.73	Os Belenenses (1st)	6	1679	57.77%	@ Caldas	1	1349	24.51%
12	1958-10-12	26.56	Benfica	5	1686	51.30%	@ Uniao Torreense	1	1409	30.64%
13	1958-09-21	25.63	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	3	1416	49.26%	Os Belenenses (1st)	0	1556	32.30%
14	1958-10-05	22.98	@ Lusitano de Evora	7	1436	64.98%	Uniao Torreense	1	1432	16.95%
15	1959-02-08	22.24	@ Caldas	4	1315	48.14%	Vitoria Setubal	1	1464	33.43%
16	1959-02-22	21.39	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	5	1477	66.70%	Fabril	0	1452	15.34%
17	1959-01-11	21.21	Benfica	3	1769	56.06%	@ Academica de Coimbra	0	1453	26.11%
18	1958-12-21	20.51	Benfica	4	1758	51.43%	@ Fabril	1	1480	30.52%
19	1959-03-01	20.50	@ Porto	7	1817	72.10%	Os Belenenses (1st)	0	1715	10.48%
20	1958-11-02	20.02	Sporting Clube de Portugal	3	1694	36.84%	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	1	1521	44.75%
21	1958-09-21	19.98	@ Vitoria Setubal	4	1439	63.99%	Uniao Torreense	0	1446	17.88%
22	1958-11-09	19.10	@ Lusitano de Evora	5	1433	60.91%	Academica de Coimbra	1	1472	20.83%
23	1959-02-22	18.64	Uniao Torreense	2	1310	9.03%	@ Barreirense	1	1441	73.81%
24	1958-10-12	18.53	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	6	1542	71.52%	Sporting Covilha	0	1449	10.99%
25	1958-09-21	18.31	Braga	4	1476	5.34%	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	3	1709	78.59%