1943 Primeira Divisão Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Benfica

30 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Sporting Clube de Portugal

4.61 points above expected

29 points · 24.39 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Porto

3.98 points below expected

14 points · 17.98 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Benfica	18	15	0	3	30	74	38	+36	25.82	+4.18
2	Sporting Clube de Portugal	18	14	1	3	29	66	37	+29	24.39	+4.61
3	Os Belenenses (1st)	18	14	0	4	28	78	20	+58	27.62	+0.38
4	Unidos de Lisboa	18	9	2	7	20	70	46	+24	19.49	+0.51
5	Olhanense	18	8	2	8	18	44	48	-4	13.73	+4.27
6	Academica de Coimbra	18	6	2	10	14	54	60	-6	17.79	-3.79
7	Porto	18	5	4	9	14	40	56	-16	17.98	-3.98
8	Vitoria Guimaraes	18	6	2	10	14	48	76	-28	14.23	-0.23
9	GD Fabril	18	5	1	12	11	46	77	-31	13.43	-2.43
10	Leixoes	18	0	2	16	2	19	81	-62	5.52	-3.52

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Os Belenenses (1st)	1931	28	27.62	+0.38	59.6%	16	22	26	28	30	32	36
Sporting Clube de Portugal	1871	29	24.39	+4.61	94.0%	7	19	22	24	27	30	36
Benfica	1822	30	25.82	+4.18	93.1%	12	20	24	26	28	31	36
Unidos de Lisboa	1751	20	19.49	+0.51	60.9%	6	14	17	19	22	25	33
Olhanense	1605	18	13.73	+4.27	91.4%	2	8	11	14	16	20	26
Porto	1542	14	17.98	-3.98	16.2%	5	12	16	18	20	24	30
Academica de Coimbra	1513	14	17.79	-3.79	18.0%	5	12	15	18	20	24	29
GD Fabril	1479	11	13.43	-2.43	29.1%	2	8	11	13	16	19	27
Vitoria Guimaraes	1431	14	14.23	-0.23	54.3%	3	9	12	14	16	20	27
Leixoes	1156	2	5.52	-3.52	12.2%	0	2	4	5	7	10	17

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ADC	BEN	GF	LEI	OLH	OB(	POR	SCDP	UDL	VG
Academica de Coimbra	—	0-0-2 1.23	1-0-1 3.60	1-1-0 4.97	0-0-2 3.74	0-0-2 1.64	1-1-0 2.94	1-0-1 1.64	0-0-2 2.99	2-0-0 3.07
Benfica	2-0-0 4.58	—	2-0-0 4.71	2-0-0 5.48	2-0-0 4.71	1-0-1 2.36	2-0-0 4.11	1-0-1 3.16	2-0-0 3.97	1-0-1 4.84
GD Fabril	1-0-1 2.21	0-0-2 1.11	—	2-0-0 4.47	0-0-2 2.94	0-0-2 0.72	1-1-0 2.37	0-0-2 0.92	0-0-2 2.14	1-0-1 2.45
Leixoes	0-1-1 0.84	0-0-2 0.34	0-0-2 1.35	—	0-1-1 1.65	0-0-2 0.27	0-0-2 0.87	0-0-2 0.52	0-0-2 0.43	0-0-2 1.06
Olhanense	2-0-0 2.07	0-0-2 1.10	2-0-0 2.88	1-1-0 4.17	—	0-0-2 0.91	1-0-1 2.23	0-0-2 1.22	1-0-1 1.79	1-1-0 3.45
Os Belenenses (1st)	2-0-0 4.18	1-0-1 3.46	2-0-0 5.09	2-0-0 5.55	2-0-0 4.90	—	1-0-1 4.48	1-0-1 3.58	2-0-0 4.26	1-0-1 5.02
Porto	0-1-1 2.87	0-0-2 1.70	0-1-1 3.44	2-0-0 4.94	1-0-1 3.58	1-0-1 1.33	—	0-1-1 2.08	0-1-1 2.72	1-0-1 3.45
Sporting Clube de Portugal	1-0-1 4.17	1-0-1 2.65	2-0-0 4.89	2-0-0 5.29	2-0-0 4.60	1-0-1 2.23	1-1-0 3.73	—	2-0-0 3.65	2-0-0 4.55
Unidos de Lisboa	2-0-0 2.83	0-0-2 1.85	2-0-0 3.67	2-0-0 5.38	1-0-1 4.02	0-0-2 1.55	1-1-0 3.09	0-0-2 2.17	—	1-1-0 3.87
Vitoria Guimaraes	0-0-2 2.74	1-0-1 0.97	1-0-1 3.37	2-0-0 4.75	0-1-1 2.36	1-0-1 0.79	1-0-1 2.37	0-0-2 1.26	0-1-1 1.95	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.83	+4.5
Allowed	0.81	-4.0
Differential	0.90	+2.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.22%	1.11%	1.67%	1.11%	2.78%	4.44%	13.33%
1	1.11%	2.22%	1.67%	2.78%	1.11%	4.44%	13.33%
2	1.67%	1.67%	2.22%	3.89%	5.56%	8.89%	23.89%
3	1.11%	2.78%	3.89%	1.11%	3.33%	1.67%	13.89%
4	2.78%	1.11%	5.56%	3.33%	1.11%	1.11%	15.00%
5+	4.44%	4.44%	8.89%	1.67%	1.11%	—	20.56%
Total	13.33%	13.33%	23.89%	13.89%	15.00%	20.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.99	2.99	+0.00
SD	2.42	2.42	3.96
CV	0.81	0.81	—
Max	14	14	+14
Min	0	0	-14

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
1	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	22.22%	50.00%
3	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
5+	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	5.56%	11.11%	33.33%	5.56%	16.67%	27.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.00	3.33	-0.33
SD	2.03	2.14	3.24
CV	0.68	0.64	—
Max	8	7	+6
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
2	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%
3	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
5+	—	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
Total	11.11%	16.67%	44.44%	16.67%	—	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	4.11	2.11	+2.00
SD	2.74	1.37	3.16
CV	0.67	0.65	—
Max	12	5	+10
Min	1	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
1	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%	27.78%
2	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	22.22%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	16.67%
4	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	50.00%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.56	4.28	-1.72
SD	1.72	2.61	3.77
CV	0.67	0.61	—
Max	6	9	+6
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	38.89%
1	—	—	—	—	5.56%	16.67%	22.22%
2	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	16.67%	33.33%
3	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	33.33%	44.44%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.06	4.50	-3.44
SD	1.00	2.18	2.06
CV	0.95	0.48	—
Max	3	8	+0
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
1	—	—	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	16.67%
2	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
3	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
Total	11.11%	16.67%	16.67%	33.33%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.44	2.67	-0.22
SD	2.12	1.91	3.17
CV	0.87	0.72	—
Max	6	8	+4
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
2	11.11%	—	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
5+	33.33%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	44.44%
Total	55.56%	—	27.78%	11.11%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	4.33	1.11	+3.22
SD	2.85	1.37	3.75
CV	0.66	1.23	—
Max	12	4	+12
Min	1	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%
1	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
2	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%	38.89%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	11.11%	22.22%	16.67%	11.11%	16.67%	22.22%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.22	3.11	-0.89
SD	1.63	2.85	3.46
CV	0.73	0.92	—
Max	6	12	+4
Min	0	0	-10

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
1	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	33.33%
5+	—	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
Total	5.56%	27.78%	38.89%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.67	2.06	+1.61
SD	1.85	1.21	2.50
CV	0.50	0.59	—
Max	7	5	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
1	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
2	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	16.67%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
Total	22.22%	—	27.78%	11.11%	27.78%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.89	2.56	+1.33
SD	3.68	1.72	4.31
CV	0.95	0.67	—
Max	14	5	+14
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	16.67%
1	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
2	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%
3	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	33.33%
4	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
5+	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	—	22.22%	16.67%	11.11%	27.78%	22.22%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.67	4.22	-1.56
SD	1.97	3.70	5.12
CV	0.74	0.88	—
Max	7	14	+6
Min	0	1	-14

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Sporting Clube de Portugal	29	24.39	+4.61
2	Olhanense	18	13.73	+4.27
3	Benfica	30	25.82	+4.18
4	Unidos de Lisboa	20	19.49	+0.51
5	Os Belenenses (1st)	28	27.62	+0.38

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Porto	14	17.98	-3.98
2	Academica de Coimbra	14	17.79	-3.79
3	Leixoes	2	5.52	-3.52
4	GD Fabril	11	13.43	-2.43
5	Vitoria Guimaraes	14	14.23	-0.23

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Sporting Clube de Portugal	9	Feb 28 – May 2	1 in 66
2	Vitoria Guimaraes	3	Mar 21 – Apr 4	1 in 46
3	Benfica	7	Jan 10 – Feb 21	1 in 16
4	GD Fabril	2	Feb 14 – Feb 21	1 in 7
5	Os Belenenses (1st)	5	Jan 10 – Feb 7	1 in 6

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Vitoria Guimaraes	5	Apr 11 – May 16	1 in 123
2	Os Belenenses (1st)	2	Mar 14 – Mar 21	1 in 47
3	GD Fabril	5	Jan 10 – Feb 7	1 in 30
4	Porto	3	Feb 7 – Feb 21	1 in 30
5	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1	Jan 31 – Jan 31	1 in 6

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Sporting Clube de Portugal	9	Feb 28 – May 2	1 in 18
2	Olhanense	4	Feb 21 – Mar 14	1 in 13
3	GD Fabril	3	Apr 11 – May 2	1 in 10
4	Benfica	7	Jan 10 – Feb 21	1 in 6
5	Vitoria Guimaraes	3	Feb 21 – Mar 7	1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Academica de Coimbra	8	Feb 21 – Apr 11	1 in 129
2	Porto	5	Feb 7 – Mar 7	1 in 46
3	Vitoria Guimaraes	5	Apr 11 – May 16	1 in 32
4	Os Belenenses (1st)	2	Mar 14 – Mar 21	1 in 17
5	GD Fabril	5	Jan 10 – Feb 7	1 in 12

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Benfica	26.05%	37.93%	24.13%	8.12%	2.60%	0.84%	0.26%	0.06%	0.01%	—
Sporting Clube de Portugal	13.95%	26.34%	36.57%	14.90%	5.45%	1.83%	0.73%	0.22%	—	0.01%
Os Belenenses (1st)	57.89%	26.53%	11.40%	3.01%	0.87%	0.25%	0.05%	—	—	—
Unidos de Lisboa	1.28%	4.77%	12.98%	29.67%	23.06%	13.95%	8.39%	3.83%	2.02%	0.05%
Olhanense	0.01%	0.10%	0.77%	3.70%	8.12%	14.24%	21.53%	23.72%	25.36%	2.45%
Academica de Coimbra	0.36%	2.01%	6.28%	17.51%	23.49%	21.58%	14.44%	9.01%	5.11%	0.21%
Porto	0.41%	2.14%	6.52%	16.85%	23.31%	22.31%	14.24%	9.33%	4.68%	0.21%
Vitoria Guimaraes	0.04%	0.10%	0.82%	3.62%	7.63%	13.59%	21.86%	26.81%	23.75%	1.78%
GD Fabril	0.01%	0.08%	0.53%	2.62%	5.46%	11.38%	18.26%	25.72%	32.57%	3.37%
Leixoes	—	—	—	—	0.01%	0.03%	0.24%	1.30%	6.50%	91.92%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+22.22%

Clear Edge

56.67%8.89%34.44%

Elo Value

Home Edge

121 Elo

0.008 goals per Elo point

078.52400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+1.26 goals

Strong Home

-2+0.65+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.4

Top-Heavy

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

26%

Benfica, 2nd of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.06/gm

Photo Finish

00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.68 * Some Luck: 2.68 to 4.01 * Lucky: 4.01 to 5.35 * Wild Swing: 5.35 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.83 * Close: 0.83 to 1.25 * Off: 1.25 to 1.66 * Way Off: 1.66 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.25 points

Some Luck

03.358

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.00

01.042.5

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

94.00%

Sporting Clube de Portugal

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

12.17%

Leixoes

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.26

Lopsided

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

2.11

Strong Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

86%

Wide Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 99%

99%

Dominant

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

30%

Some Drama

0%30%100%

Blowouts

Expected

50%

Very Frequent

0%53%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.40

Highly Predictable

00.432

Matchup Imbalance

0.53

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.97

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.63

Strong Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

19%

Chalky

0%21%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

16%

As Expected

0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.

Probability calibration

0.67

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.07

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.078

Well Within Noise

00.1480.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level
Academica de Coimbra	100%
Benfica	100%
GD Fabril	100%
Leixoes	100%
Olhanense	100%
Os Belenenses (1st)	100%
Porto	100%
Sporting Clube de Portugal	100%
Unidos de Lisboa	100%
Vitoria Guimaraes	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1943-01-10	GD Fabril	W 7-2	1619	1621	60.8%	9.4%	29.8%	+36.2	2
1943-01-10	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 2-7	1621	1619	29.8%	9.4%	60.8%	-36.2	0
1943-01-10	Porto	W 4-0	1764	1706	67.6%	9.4%	23.0%	+33.2	2
1943-01-10	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-4	1706	1764	23.0%	9.4%	67.6%	-33.2	0
1943-01-10	Olhanense	D 0-0	1335	1475	42.1%	9.4%	48.5%	+0.6	1
1943-01-10	@ Leixoes	D 0-0	1475	1335	48.5%	9.4%	42.1%	-0.6	1
1943-01-10	Benfica	L 2-3	1598	1741	41.6%	9.4%	49.0%	-14.4	0
1943-01-10	@ Unidos de Lisboa	W 3-2	1741	1598	49.0%	9.4%	41.6%	+14.4	2
1943-01-10	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 2-4	1491	1751	26.7%	9.4%	63.9%	-15.6	0
1943-01-10	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	W 4-2	1751	1491	63.9%	9.4%	26.7%	+15.6	2
1943-01-17	Leixoes	W 8-2	1655	1336	84.5%	9.3%	6.2%	+9.3	4
1943-01-17	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 2-8	1336	1655	6.2%	9.3%	84.5%	-9.3	1
1943-01-17	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 12-0	1797	1476	84.6%	9.3%	6.1%	+26.2	4
1943-01-17	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-12	1476	1797	6.1%	9.3%	84.6%	-26.2	0
1943-01-17	Benfica	L 0-1	1474	1756	24.2%	9.4%	66.4%	-9.8	1
1943-01-17	@ Olhanense	W 1-0	1756	1474	66.4%	9.4%	24.2%	+9.8	4
1943-01-17	Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 2-2	1672	1766	48.7%	9.4%	41.9%	-0.5	1
1943-01-17	@ Porto	D 2-2	1766	1672	41.9%	9.4%	48.7%	+0.5	3
1943-01-17	GD Fabril	W 9-3	1583	1585	60.9%	9.4%	29.7%	+37.9	2
1943-01-17	@ Unidos de Lisboa	L 3-9	1585	1583	29.7%	9.4%	60.9%	-37.9	0
1943-01-24	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 2-4	1664	1823	39.4%	9.4%	51.1%	-22.5	4
1943-01-24	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 4-2	1823	1664	51.1%	9.4%	39.4%	+22.4	6
1943-01-24	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 8-3	1766	1449	84.4%	9.3%	6.3%	+7.3	6
1943-01-24	@ Benfica	L 3-8	1449	1766	6.3%	9.3%	84.4%	-7.3	0
1943-01-24	Porto	L 0-4	1326	1672	18.1%	9.4%	72.5%	-26.5	1
1943-01-24	@ Leixoes	W 4-0	1672	1326	72.5%	9.4%	18.1%	+26.5	3
1943-01-24	GD Fabril	W 5-1	1465	1547	50.3%	9.4%	40.2%	+46.7	3
1943-01-24	@ Olhanense	L 1-5	1547	1465	40.2%	9.4%	50.3%	-46.7	0
1943-01-24	Unidos de Lisboa	W 4-3	1767	1621	75.4%	9.4%	15.2%	+5.5	5
1943-01-24	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 3-4	1621	1767	15.2%	9.4%	75.4%	-5.5	2
1943-01-31	Unidos de Lisboa	W 2-0	1846	1616	80.7%	9.3%	9.9%	+7.8	8
1943-01-31	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-2	1616	1846	9.9%	9.3%	80.7%	-7.8	2
1943-01-31	Benfica	L 2-3	1500	1773	25.2%	9.4%	65.4%	-9.1	0
1943-01-31	@ GD Fabril	W 3-2	1773	1500	65.4%	9.4%	25.2%	+9.1	8
1943-01-31	Olhanense	W 3-2	1698	1511	78.2%	9.4%	12.4%	+4.6	5
1943-01-31	@ Porto	L 2-3	1511	1698	12.4%	9.4%	78.2%	-4.6	3
1943-01-31	Academica de Coimbra	L 2-4	1772	1642	74.2%	9.4%	16.4%	-41.1	5
1943-01-31	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 4-2	1642	1772	16.4%	9.4%	74.2%	+41.1	6
1943-01-31	Leixoes	W 7-1	1442	1300	75.1%	9.4%	15.5%	+27.6	2
1943-01-31	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-7	1300	1442	15.5%	9.4%	75.1%	-27.6	1
1943-02-07	Porto	W 12-2	1782	1703	69.7%	9.4%	20.9%	+48.0	10
1943-02-07	@ Benfica	L 2-12	1703	1782	20.9%	9.4%	69.7%	-48.0	5
1943-02-07	Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-3	1491	1470	63.6%	9.4%	26.9%	-39.3	0
1943-02-07	@ GD Fabril	W 3-1	1470	1491	26.9%	9.4%	63.6%	+39.3	4
1943-02-07	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-4	1272	1731	10.3%	9.3%	80.4%	-15.4	1
1943-02-07	@ Leixoes	W 4-0	1731	1272	80.4%	9.3%	10.3%	+15.4	7
1943-02-07	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-4	1507	1853	18.0%	9.4%	72.7%	-26.3	3
1943-02-07	@ Olhanense	W 4-0	1853	1507	72.7%	9.4%	18.0%	+26.3	10
1943-02-07	Academica de Coimbra	W 7-4	1608	1683	51.3%	9.4%	39.2%	+27.0	4
1943-02-07	@ Unidos de Lisboa	L 4-7	1683	1608	39.2%	9.4%	51.3%	-27.0	6
1943-02-14	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 4-0	1656	1509	75.5%	9.4%	15.1%	+22.3	8
1943-02-14	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 0-4	1509	1656	15.1%	9.4%	75.5%	-22.3	4
1943-02-14	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 4-2	1830	1880	54.8%	9.4%	35.8%	+20.5	12
1943-02-14	@ Benfica	L 2-4	1880	1830	35.8%	9.4%	54.8%	-20.5	10
1943-02-14	Leixoes	W 6-0	1452	1257	78.7%	9.3%	11.9%	+25.9	2
1943-02-14	@ GD Fabril	L 0-6	1257	1452	11.9%	9.3%	78.7%	-25.9	1
1943-02-14	Unidos de Lisboa	L 2-6	1655	1635	63.5%	9.4%	27.1%	-60.8	5
1943-02-14	@ Porto	W 6-2	1635	1655	27.1%	9.4%	63.5%	+60.8	6
1943-02-14	Olhanense	W 5-1	1746	1480	82.5%	9.3%	8.2%	+10.3	9
1943-02-14	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-5	1480	1746	8.2%	9.3%	82.5%	-10.3	3
1943-02-21	Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 5-0	1859	1757	71.9%	9.4%	18.7%	+33.8	12
1943-02-21	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-5	1757	1859	18.7%	9.4%	71.9%	-33.8	9
1943-02-21	Leixoes	W 3-0	1851	1231	89.9%	8.9%	1.2%	+1.4	14
1943-02-21	@ Benfica	L 0-3	1231	1851	1.2%	8.9%	89.9%	-1.3	1
1943-02-21	Academica de Coimbra	W 5-2	1470	1678	32.9%	9.4%	57.7%	+43.7	5
1943-02-21	@ Olhanense	L 2-5	1678	1470	57.7%	9.4%	32.9%	-43.7	8
1943-02-21	GD Fabril	L 3-4	1594	1478	73.1%	9.4%	17.5%	-24.2	5
1943-02-21	@ Porto	W 4-3	1478	1594	17.5%	9.4%	73.1%	+24.2	4
1943-02-21	Unidos de Lisboa	D 4-4	1487	1696	32.8%	9.4%	57.8%	+1.2	5
1943-02-21	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	D 4-4	1696	1487	57.8%	9.4%	32.8%	-1.3	7
1943-02-28	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-8	1502	1893	14.5%	9.3%	76.1%	-41.2	4
1943-02-28	@ GD Fabril	W 8-0	1893	1502	76.1%	9.3%	14.5%	+41.2	14
1943-02-28	Academica de Coimbra	D 1-1	1570	1634	52.8%	9.4%	37.8%	-1.4	6
1943-02-28	@ Porto	D 1-1	1634	1570	37.8%	9.4%	52.8%	+1.4	9
1943-02-28	Benfica	W 3-2	1723	1852	43.7%	9.4%	46.9%	+16.1	11
1943-02-28	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 2-3	1852	1723	46.9%	9.4%	43.7%	-16.1	14
1943-02-28	Leixoes	W 8-2	1694	1230	88.1%	9.1%	2.8%	+4.2	9
1943-02-28	@ Unidos de Lisboa	L 2-8	1230	1694	2.8%	9.1%	88.1%	-4.2	1
1943-02-28	Olhanense	D 3-3	1488	1514	57.9%	9.4%	32.7%	-1.4	6
1943-02-28	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	D 3-3	1514	1488	32.7%	9.4%	57.9%	+1.4	6
1943-03-07	Academica de Coimbra	W 6-2	1836	1636	79.0%	9.3%	11.6%	+12.2	16
1943-03-07	@ Benfica	L 2-6	1636	1836	11.6%	9.3%	79.0%	-12.2	9
1943-03-07	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 2-4	1225	1934	2.7%	9.0%	88.3%	-1.6	1
1943-03-07	@ Leixoes	W 4-2	1934	1225	88.3%	9.0%	2.7%	+1.6	16
1943-03-07	Unidos de Lisboa	W 4-3	1515	1698	36.1%	9.4%	54.4%	+18.1	8
1943-03-07	@ Olhanense	L 3-4	1698	1515	54.4%	9.4%	36.1%	-18.0	9
1943-03-07	GD Fabril	W 5-1	1739	1461	83.0%	9.3%	7.7%	+9.6	13
1943-03-07	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-5	1461	1739	7.7%	9.3%	83.0%	-9.6	4
1943-03-07	Porto	W 3-2	1486	1569	50.3%	9.4%	40.2%	+14.0	8
1943-03-07	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 2-3	1569	1486	40.2%	9.4%	50.3%	-14.0	6
1943-03-14	Unidos de Lisboa	W 5-2	1848	1680	77.0%	9.4%	13.7%	+11.3	18
1943-03-14	@ Benfica	L 2-5	1680	1848	13.7%	9.4%	77.0%	-11.3	9
1943-03-14	Academica de Coimbra	W 4-2	1451	1624	37.6%	9.4%	53.0%	+29.4	6
1943-03-14	@ GD Fabril	L 2-4	1624	1451	53.0%	9.4%	37.6%	-29.5	9
1943-03-14	Leixoes	W 4-1	1533	1224	84.2%	9.3%	6.5%	+6.3	10
1943-03-14	@ Olhanense	L 1-4	1224	1533	6.5%	9.3%	84.2%	-6.3	1
1943-03-14	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 3-1	1555	1936	15.2%	9.3%	75.4%	+46.7	8
1943-03-14	@ Porto	L 1-3	1936	1555	75.4%	9.3%	15.2%	-46.7	16
1943-03-14	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 4-1	1749	1500	81.6%	9.3%	9.0%	+8.7	15
1943-03-14	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-4	1500	1749	9.0%	9.3%	81.6%	-8.7	8
1943-03-21	Olhanense	W 3-1	1859	1540	84.5%	9.3%	6.2%	+4.2	20
1943-03-21	@ Benfica	L 1-3	1540	1859	6.2%	9.3%	84.5%	-4.2	10
1943-03-21	Unidos de Lisboa	L 2-4	1480	1669	35.4%	9.4%	55.2%	-20.3	6
1943-03-21	@ GD Fabril	W 4-2	1669	1480	55.2%	9.4%	35.4%	+20.3	11
1943-03-21	Academica de Coimbra	D 2-2	1217	1594	15.6%	9.3%	75.1%	+4.2	2
1943-03-21	@ Leixoes	D 2-2	1594	1217	75.1%	9.3%	15.6%	-4.2	10
1943-03-21	Porto	W 5-2	1757	1601	76.2%	9.4%	14.5%	+11.9	17
1943-03-21	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 2-5	1601	1757	14.5%	9.4%	76.2%	-12.0	8
1943-03-21	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 3-1	1492	1889	14.1%	9.3%	76.6%	+47.4	10
1943-03-21	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-3	1889	1492	76.6%	9.3%	14.1%	-47.5	16
1943-03-28	Academica de Coimbra	W 2-0	1842	1590	81.8%	9.3%	8.9%	+7.0	18
1943-03-28	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-2	1590	1842	8.9%	9.3%	81.8%	-7.0	10
1943-03-28	Olhanense	L 4-5	1460	1535	51.3%	9.4%	39.3%	-16.8	6
1943-03-28	@ GD Fabril	W 5-4	1535	1460	39.3%	9.4%	51.3%	+16.8	12
1943-03-28	Leixoes	W 5-1	1589	1222	86.0%	9.2%	4.8%	+6.0	10
1943-03-28	@ Porto	L 1-5	1222	1589	4.8%	9.2%	86.0%	-6.0	2
1943-03-28	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 2-4	1689	1769	50.7%	9.4%	39.9%	-28.2	11
1943-03-28	@ Unidos de Lisboa	W 4-2	1769	1689	39.9%	9.4%	50.7%	+28.2	19
1943-03-28	Benfica	W 5-1	1539	1864	20.0%	9.4%	70.7%	+79.7	12
1943-03-28	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-5	1864	1539	70.7%	9.4%	20.0%	-79.7	20
1943-04-04	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 2-7	1583	1798	32.0%	9.4%	58.6%	-38.8	10
1943-04-04	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 7-2	1798	1583	58.6%	9.4%	32.0%	+38.8	21
1943-04-04	GD Fabril	W 7-1	1784	1443	85.2%	9.2%	5.5%	+10.0	22
1943-04-04	@ Benfica	L 1-7	1443	1784	5.5%	9.2%	85.2%	-10.0	6
1943-04-04	Vitoria Guimaraes	L 2-6	1216	1619	13.7%	9.3%	77.0%	-14.3	2
1943-04-04	@ Leixoes	W 6-2	1619	1216	77.0%	9.3%	13.7%	+14.3	14
1943-04-04	Porto	W 3-0	1552	1595	55.6%	9.4%	34.9%	+37.6	14
1943-04-04	@ Olhanense	L 0-3	1595	1552	34.9%	9.4%	55.6%	-37.6	10
1943-04-04	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-5	1661	1849	35.6%	9.4%	55.0%	-61.7	11
1943-04-04	@ Unidos de Lisboa	W 5-0	1849	1661	55.0%	9.4%	35.6%	+61.7	20
1943-04-11	Unidos de Lisboa	L 2-3	1544	1600	54.0%	9.4%	36.6%	-18.4	10
1943-04-11	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 3-2	1600	1544	36.6%	9.4%	54.0%	+18.4	13
1943-04-11	Olhanense	W 8-0	1910	1590	84.6%	9.3%	6.2%	+17.8	22
1943-04-11	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-8	1590	1910	6.2%	9.3%	84.6%	-17.8	14
1943-04-11	Benfica	L 2-4	1558	1794	29.4%	9.4%	61.2%	-17.1	10
1943-04-11	@ Porto	W 4-2	1794	1558	61.2%	9.4%	29.4%	+17.1	24
1943-04-11	Leixoes	W 4-3	1836	1201	90.0%	8.9%	1.1%	+0.4	23
1943-04-11	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 3-4	1201	1836	1.1%	8.9%	90.0%	-0.4	2
1943-04-11	GD Fabril	L 2-3	1633	1433	79.0%	9.3%	11.6%	-26.9	14
1943-04-11	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	W 3-2	1433	1633	11.6%	9.3%	79.0%	+26.9	8
1943-04-25	Benfica	W 5-2	1928	1811	73.1%	9.4%	17.5%	+14.3	24
1943-04-25	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 2-5	1811	1928	17.5%	9.4%	73.1%	-14.3	24
1943-04-25	GD Fabril	L 1-6	1201	1460	26.7%	9.4%	63.9%	-39.1	2
1943-04-25	@ Leixoes	W 6-1	1460	1201	63.9%	9.4%	26.7%	+39.1	10
1943-04-25	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-3	1572	1837	26.1%	9.4%	64.5%	-17.1	14
1943-04-25	@ Olhanense	W 3-1	1837	1572	64.5%	9.4%	26.1%	+17.1	25
1943-04-25	Porto	D 0-0	1618	1541	69.5%	9.4%	21.1%	-5.1	14
1943-04-25	@ Unidos de Lisboa	D 0-0	1541	1618	21.1%	9.4%	69.5%	+5.1	11
1943-04-25	Academica de Coimbra	L 1-2	1606	1526	69.8%	9.4%	20.8%	-24.9	14
1943-04-25	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	W 2-1	1526	1606	20.8%	9.4%	69.8%	+24.9	12
1943-05-02	Olhanense	L 2-6	1551	1555	60.6%	9.4%	30.0%	-58.0	12
1943-05-02	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 6-2	1555	1551	30.0%	9.4%	60.6%	+58.0	16
1943-05-02	Porto	D 1-1	1499	1546	55.2%	9.4%	35.4%	-1.8	11
1943-05-02	@ GD Fabril	D 1-1	1546	1499	35.4%	9.4%	55.2%	+1.8	12
1943-05-02	Benfica	L 2-4	1162	1797	4.0%	9.1%	86.9%	-2.5	2
1943-05-02	@ Leixoes	W 4-2	1797	1162	86.9%	9.1%	4.0%	+2.5	26
1943-05-02	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 2-1	1854	1943	49.4%	9.4%	41.1%	+15.1	27
1943-05-02	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-2	1943	1854	41.1%	9.4%	49.4%	-15.1	24
1943-05-02	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 14-0	1613	1581	64.8%	9.4%	25.8%	+122.5	16
1943-05-02	@ Unidos de Lisboa	L 0-14	1581	1613	25.8%	9.4%	64.8%	-122.5	14
1943-05-09	Porto	W 5-2	1493	1548	54.1%	9.4%	36.5%	+28.6	14
1943-05-09	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 2-5	1548	1493	36.5%	9.4%	54.1%	-28.6	12
1943-05-09	GD Fabril	W 5-2	1927	1497	87.5%	9.2%	3.4%	+2.9	26
1943-05-09	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 2-5	1497	1927	3.4%	9.2%	87.5%	-2.9	11
1943-05-09	Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 2-1	1799	1869	52.1%	9.4%	38.5%	+14.2	28
1943-05-09	@ Benfica	L 1-2	1869	1799	38.5%	9.4%	52.1%	-14.2	27
1943-05-09	Unidos de Lisboa	L 0-1	1159	1735	5.5%	9.2%	85.3%	-2.3	2
1943-05-09	@ Leixoes	W 1-0	1735	1159	85.3%	9.2%	5.5%	+2.3	18
1943-05-09	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 4-3	1613	1459	76.0%	9.4%	14.6%	+5.3	18
1943-05-09	@ Olhanense	L 3-4	1459	1613	14.6%	9.4%	76.0%	-5.3	14
1943-05-16	Benfica	L 3-4	1521	1813	23.1%	9.4%	67.5%	-8.2	14
1943-05-16	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 4-3	1813	1521	67.5%	9.4%	23.1%	+8.2	30
1943-05-16	Leixoes	W 5-0	1930	1157	90.8%	8.7%	0.5%	+0.9	28
1943-05-16	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-5	1157	1930	0.5%	8.7%	90.8%	-0.9	2
1943-05-16	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 3-7	1495	1855	16.9%	9.3%	73.8%	-16.0	11
1943-05-16	@ GD Fabril	W 7-3	1855	1495	73.8%	9.3%	16.9%	+16.0	29
1943-05-16	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 6-2	1519	1454	68.3%	9.4%	22.2%	+22.8	14
1943-05-16	@ Porto	L 2-6	1454	1519	22.2%	9.4%	68.3%	-22.8	14
1943-05-16	Olhanense	W 2-0	1738	1618	73.3%	9.4%	17.3%	+13.4	20
1943-05-16	@ Unidos de Lisboa	L 0-2	1618	1738	17.3%	9.4%	73.3%	-13.4	18

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1943-04-11	11.61%	GD Fabril	1433	3	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	1633	2
2	1943-03-21	14.06%	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	1492	3	Os Belenenses (1st)	1889	1
3	1943-03-14	15.24%	@ Porto	1555	3	Os Belenenses (1st)	1936	1
4	1943-01-31	16.40%	Academica de Coimbra	1642	4	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	1772	2
5	1943-02-21	17.54%	GD Fabril	1478	4	@ Porto	1594	3
6	1943-03-28	19.98%	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	1539	5	Benfica	1864	1
7	1943-04-25	20.75%	Academica de Coimbra	1526	2	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	1606	1
8	1943-02-07	26.93%	Vitoria Guimaraes	1470	3	@ GD Fabril	1491	1
9	1943-02-14	27.09%	Unidos de Lisboa	1635	6	@ Porto	1655	2
10	1943-05-02	29.98%	Olhanense	1555	6	@ Academica de Coimbra	1551	2
11	1943-02-21	32.89%	@ Olhanense	1470	5	Academica de Coimbra	1678	2
12	1943-03-07	36.14%	@ Olhanense	1515	4	Unidos de Lisboa	1698	3
13	1943-04-11	36.57%	Unidos de Lisboa	1600	3	@ Academica de Coimbra	1544	2
14	1943-03-14	37.59%	@ GD Fabril	1451	4	Academica de Coimbra	1624	2
15	1943-03-28	39.26%	Olhanense	1535	5	@ GD Fabril	1460	4
16	1943-03-28	39.91%	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1769	4	@ Unidos de Lisboa	1689	2
17	1943-02-28	43.68%	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	1723	3	Benfica	1852	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1943-05-02	122.46	@ Unidos de Lisboa	14	1613	64.77%	Vitoria Guimaraes	0	1581	25.81%	9.42%
2	1943-03-28	79.71	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	5	1539	19.98%	Benfica	1	1864	70.65%	9.37%
3	1943-04-04	61.66	Os Belenenses (1st)	5	1849	55.00%	@ Unidos de Lisboa	0	1661	35.58%	9.42%
4	1943-02-14	60.75	Unidos de Lisboa	6	1635	27.09%	@ Porto	2	1655	63.49%	9.42%
5	1943-05-02	58.03	Olhanense	6	1555	29.98%	@ Academica de Coimbra	2	1551	60.60%	9.42%
6	1943-02-07	48.05	@ Benfica	12	1782	69.70%	Porto	2	1703	20.90%	9.40%
7	1943-03-21	47.46	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	3	1492	14.06%	Os Belenenses (1st)	1	1889	76.61%	9.33%
8	1943-01-24	46.70	@ Olhanense	5	1465	50.32%	GD Fabril	1	1547	40.25%	9.43%
9	1943-03-14	46.70	@ Porto	3	1555	15.24%	Os Belenenses (1st)	1	1936	75.42%	9.34%
10	1943-02-21	43.73	@ Olhanense	5	1470	32.89%	Academica de Coimbra	2	1678	57.69%	9.41%
11	1943-02-28	41.24	Os Belenenses (1st)	8	1893	76.15%	@ GD Fabril	0	1502	14.52%	9.33%
12	1943-01-31	41.09	Academica de Coimbra	4	1642	16.40%	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	2	1772	74.22%	9.38%
13	1943-02-07	39.31	Vitoria Guimaraes	3	1470	26.93%	@ GD Fabril	1	1491	63.65%	9.42%
14	1943-04-25	39.11	GD Fabril	6	1460	63.89%	@ Leixoes	1	1201	26.71%	9.40%
15	1943-04-04	38.78	Sporting Clube de Portugal	7	1798	58.55%	@ Academica de Coimbra	2	1583	32.04%	9.41%
16	1943-01-17	37.88	@ Unidos de Lisboa	9	1583	60.92%	GD Fabril	3	1585	29.66%	9.42%
17	1943-04-04	37.65	@ Olhanense	3	1552	55.65%	Porto	0	1595	34.92%	9.43%
18	1943-01-10	36.21	@ Academica de Coimbra	7	1619	60.82%	GD Fabril	2	1621	29.76%	9.42%
19	1943-02-21	33.76	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	5	1859	71.87%	Sporting Clube de Portugal	0	1757	18.73%	9.40%
20	1943-01-10	33.24	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	4	1764	67.62%	Porto	0	1706	22.97%	9.41%
21	1943-03-14	29.45	@ GD Fabril	4	1451	37.59%	Academica de Coimbra	2	1624	52.99%	9.42%
22	1943-05-09	28.63	@ Academica de Coimbra	5	1493	54.08%	Porto	2	1548	36.49%	9.43%
23	1943-03-28	28.23	Sporting Clube de Portugal	4	1769	39.91%	@ Unidos de Lisboa	2	1689	50.66%	9.43%
24	1943-01-31	27.56	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	7	1442	75.13%	Leixoes	1	1300	15.49%	9.38%
25	1943-02-07	26.98	@ Unidos de Lisboa	7	1608	51.35%	Academica de Coimbra	4	1683	39.22%	9.43%