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1943 Primeira Divisão Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Benfica

30 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Sporting Clube de Portugal

5.61 points above expected

29 points · 23.39 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Leixoes

5.38 points below expected

2 points · 7.38 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Benfica 18 15 0 3 30 74 38 +36 25.0 +5.03
2 Sporting Clube de Portugal 18 14 1 3 29 66 37 +29 23.4 +5.61
3 Os Belenenses (1st) 18 14 0 4 28 78 20 +58 27.3 +0.73
4 Unidos de Lisboa 18 9 2 7 20 70 46 +24 19.3 +0.72
5 Olhanense 18 8 2 8 18 44 48 -4 14.0 +4.03
6 Academica de Coimbra 18 6 2 10 14 54 60 -6 18.2 -4.20
7 Porto 18 5 4 9 14 40 56 -16 18.4 -4.36
8 Vitoria Guimaraes 18 6 2 10 14 48 76 -28 13.6 +0.41
9 GD Fabril 18 5 1 12 11 46 77 -31 13.6 -2.59
10 Leixoes 18 0 2 16 2 19 81 -62 7.4 -5.38

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Os Belenenses (1st) 1906 28 27.27 +0.73 61.0% 20 22 25 27 29 32 34
Sporting Clube de Portugal 1848 29 23.39 +5.61 94.0% 15 18 21 24 26 30 31
Benfica 1803 30 24.97 +5.03 92.0% 15 20 22 25 27 31 33
Unidos de Lisboa 1727 20 19.28 +0.72 59.0% 8 12 17 19 22 25 25
Olhanense 1593 18 13.97 +4.03 88.0% 5 7 11 14 16 20 23
Porto 1550 14 18.36 -4.36 13.0% 11 13 16 18 20 24 29
Academica de Coimbra 1523 14 18.20 -4.20 15.0% 12 13 15 18 20 24 28
GD Fabril 1488 11 13.59 -2.59 28.0% 4 8 11 14 16 19 23
Vitoria Guimaraes 1449 14 13.59 +0.41 61.0% 5 8 11 14 16 20 22
Leixoes 1211 2 7.38 -5.38 5.0% 1 2 5 7 9 13 15

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ADC BEN GF LEI OLH OB( POR SCDP UDL VG
Academica de Coimbra —
0-0-2
1.38
1-0-1
3.55
1-1-0
4.69
0-0-2
3.72
0-0-2
1.82
1-1-0
2.95
1-0-1
1.77
0-0-2
3.02
2-0-0
3.10
Benfica
2-0-0
4.44
 —
2-0-0
4.54
2-0-0
5.40
2-0-0
4.53
1-0-1
2.42
2-0-0
3.98
1-0-1
3.08
2-0-0
3.85
1-0-1
4.71
GD Fabril
1-0-1
2.26
0-0-2
1.28
 —
2-0-0
4.19
0-0-2
2.94
0-0-2
0.88
1-1-0
2.43
0-0-2
1.04
0-0-2
2.25
1-0-1
2.50
Leixoes
0-1-1
1.12
0-0-2
0.42
0-0-2
1.62
 —
0-1-1
2.06
0-0-2
0.34
0-0-2
1.26
0-0-2
0.71
0-0-2
0.57
0-0-2
1.43
Olhanense
2-0-0
2.09
0-0-2
1.28
2-0-0
2.87
1-1-0
3.75
 —
0-0-2
1.07
1-0-1
2.25
0-0-2
1.28
1-0-1
1.89
1-1-0
3.35
Os Belenenses (1st)
2-0-0
3.99
1-0-1
3.39
2-0-0
4.94
2-0-0
5.49
2-0-0
4.74
 —
1-0-1
4.31
1-0-1
3.47
2-0-0
4.18
1-0-1
4.88
Porto
0-1-1
2.86
0-0-2
1.83
0-1-1
3.38
2-0-0
4.55
1-0-1
3.57
1-0-1
1.50
 —
0-1-1
2.10
0-1-1
2.78
1-0-1
3.42
Sporting Clube de Portugal
1-0-1
4.04
1-0-1
2.73
2-0-0
4.78
2-0-0
5.11
2-0-0
4.53
1-0-1
2.33
1-1-0
3.71
 —
2-0-0
3.63
2-0-0
4.42
Unidos de Lisboa
2-0-0
2.79
0-0-2
1.96
2-0-0
3.56
2-0-0
5.25
1-0-1
3.92
0-0-2
1.63
1-1-0
3.03
0-0-2
2.18
 —
1-1-0
3.74
Vitoria Guimaraes
0-0-2
2.71
1-0-1
1.10
1-0-1
3.31
2-0-0
4.38
0-1-1
2.46
1-0-1
0.93
1-0-1
2.39
0-0-2
1.39
0-1-1
2.07
 —

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.22%1.11%1.67%1.11%2.78%4.44%13.33%
11.11%2.22%1.67%2.78%1.11%4.44%13.33%
21.67%1.67%2.22%3.89%5.56%8.89%23.89%
31.11%2.78%3.89%1.11%3.33%1.67%13.89%
42.78%1.11%5.56%3.33%1.11%1.11%15.00%
5+4.44%4.44%8.89%1.67%1.11%—20.56%
Total13.33%13.33%23.89%13.89%15.00%20.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.99
Mean allowed2.99
StdDev scored2.42
StdDev allowed2.42
Mean total goals/game5.99
Correlation (home vs away score)-0.319
Sample size (games)90
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%———5.56%
1—5.56%————5.56%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%22.22%50.00%
3————5.56%—5.56%
45.56%—5.56%——5.56%16.67%
5+——16.67%———16.67%
Total5.56%11.11%33.33%5.56%16.67%27.78%100%

Academica de Coimbra — Summary Statistics

Mean scored3.00
Mean allowed3.33
StdDev scored2.03
StdDev allowed2.14
Mean total goals/game6.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.203
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
15.56%————5.56%11.11%
2—5.56%—5.56%—5.56%16.67%
35.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
4——16.67%5.56%——22.22%
5+—5.56%16.67%5.56%——27.78%
Total11.11%16.67%44.44%16.67%—11.11%100%

Benfica — Summary Statistics

Mean scored4.11
Mean allowed2.11
StdDev scored2.74
StdDev allowed1.37
Mean total goals/game6.22
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.082
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—————5.56%5.56%
1—5.56%—5.56%—16.67%27.78%
2———5.56%5.56%11.11%22.22%
3——5.56%——11.11%16.67%
4——5.56%5.56%—5.56%16.67%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total5.56%11.11%11.11%16.67%5.56%50.00%100%

GD Fabril — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.56
Mean allowed4.28
StdDev scored1.72
StdDev allowed2.61
Mean total goals/game6.83
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.495
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—5.56%11.11%11.11%38.89%
1————5.56%16.67%22.22%
2——5.56%—11.11%16.67%33.33%
3————5.56%—5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%33.33%44.44%100%

Leixoes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.06
Mean allowed4.50
StdDev scored1.00
StdDev allowed2.18
Mean total goals/game5.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.338
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%27.78%
1———11.11%—5.56%16.67%
2———5.56%——5.56%
35.56%——5.56%——11.11%
4—5.56%—11.11%——16.67%
5+—5.56%11.11%—5.56%—22.22%
Total11.11%16.67%16.67%33.33%11.11%11.11%100%

Olhanense — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.44
Mean allowed2.67
StdDev scored2.12
StdDev allowed1.91
Mean total goals/game5.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.237
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1——5.56%11.11%——16.67%
211.11%———5.56%—16.67%
3———————
411.11%—11.11%———22.22%
5+33.33%—11.11%———44.44%
Total55.56%—27.78%11.11%5.56%—100%

Os Belenenses (1st) — Summary Statistics

Mean scored4.33
Mean allowed1.11
StdDev scored2.85
StdDev allowed1.37
Mean total goals/game5.44
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.523
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%——5.56%5.56%—16.67%
1—11.11%————11.11%
2——5.56%5.56%5.56%22.22%38.89%
3—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
Total11.11%22.22%16.67%11.11%16.67%22.22%100%

Porto — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.22
Mean allowed3.11
StdDev scored1.63
StdDev allowed2.85
Mean total goals/game5.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.132
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—————5.56%5.56%
1——5.56%———5.56%
2—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
45.56%5.56%11.11%11.11%——33.33%
5+—11.11%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
Total5.56%27.78%38.89%16.67%5.56%5.56%100%

Sporting Clube de Portugal — Summary Statistics

Mean scored3.67
Mean allowed2.06
StdDev scored1.85
StdDev allowed1.21
Mean total goals/game5.72
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.307
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%——5.56%16.67%
15.56%—————5.56%
25.56%——5.56%5.56%5.56%22.22%
3——5.56%—11.11%—16.67%
4——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
5+5.56%—11.11%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
Total22.22%—27.78%11.11%27.78%11.11%100%

Unidos de Lisboa — Summary Statistics

Mean scored3.89
Mean allowed2.56
StdDev scored3.68
StdDev allowed1.72
Mean total goals/game6.44
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.166
Games played18
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————5.56%11.11%16.67%
1——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
2———5.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%
3—11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%33.33%
4————5.56%—5.56%
5+—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
Total—22.22%16.67%11.11%27.78%22.22%100%

Vitoria Guimaraes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.67
Mean allowed4.22
StdDev scored1.97
StdDev allowed3.70
Mean total goals/game6.89
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.594
Games played18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sporting Clube de Portugal 29 23.4 +5.61
2 Benfica 30 25.0 +5.03
3 Olhanense 18 14.0 +4.03
4 Os Belenenses (1st) 28 27.3 +0.73
5 Unidos de Lisboa 20 19.3 +0.72

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Leixoes 2 7.4 -5.38
2 Porto 14 18.4 -4.36
3 Academica de Coimbra 14 18.2 -4.20
4 GD Fabril 11 13.6 -2.59
5 Vitoria Guimaraes 14 13.6 +0.41

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sporting Clube de Portugal 9 Feb 28 – May 2 1 in 67
2 Vitoria Guimaraes 3 Mar 21 – Apr 4 1 in 38
3 Benfica 7 Jan 10 – Feb 21 1 in 21
4 Os Belenenses (1st) 5 Jan 10 – Feb 7 1 in 8
5 GD Fabril 2 Feb 14 – Feb 21 1 in 7

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vitoria Guimaraes 5 Apr 11 – May 16 1 in 102
2 Os Belenenses (1st) 2 Mar 14 – Mar 21 1 in 33
3 GD Fabril 5 Jan 10 – Feb 7 1 in 32
4 Porto 3 Feb 7 – Feb 21 1 in 29
5 Leixoes 9 Jan 17 – Mar 14 1 in 10

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sporting Clube de Portugal 9 Feb 28 – May 2 1 in 18
2 Olhanense 4 Feb 21 – Mar 14 1 in 13
3 GD Fabril 3 Apr 11 – May 2 1 in 10
4 Benfica 7 Jan 10 – Feb 21 1 in 8
5 Vitoria Guimaraes 3 Feb 21 – Mar 7 1 in 5

Longest Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Academica de Coimbra 8 Feb 21 – Apr 11 1 in 108
2 Porto 5 Feb 7 – Mar 7 1 in 45
3 Vitoria Guimaraes 5 Apr 11 – May 16 1 in 29
4 Leixoes 18 Jan 10 – May 16 1 in 22
5 Os Belenenses (1st) 2 Mar 14 – Mar 21 1 in 14

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Benfica21.00%44.00%22.00%8.00%4.00%—1.00%———
Sporting Clube de Portugal14.00%20.00%33.00%19.00%9.00%4.00%1.00%———
Os Belenenses (1st)63.00%22.00%11.00%3.00%1.00%—————
Unidos de Lisboa—5.00%19.00%23.00%20.00%21.00%4.00%3.00%5.00%—
Olhanense—1.00%1.00%4.00%8.00%18.00%18.00%26.00%17.00%7.00%
Academica de Coimbra1.00%3.00%7.00%20.00%26.00%13.00%22.00%7.00%1.00%—
Porto1.00%5.00%7.00%14.00%19.00%28.00%18.00%5.00%3.00%—
Vitoria Guimaraes———5.00%5.00%7.00%16.00%31.00%28.00%8.00%
GD Fabril———4.00%8.00%9.00%17.00%23.00%29.00%10.00%
Leixoes——————3.00%5.00%17.00%75.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Academica de Coimbra 100%
Benfica 100%
GD Fabril 100%
Leixoes 100%
Olhanense 100%
Os Belenenses (1st) 100%
Porto 100%
Sporting Clube de Portugal 100%
Unidos de Lisboa 100%
Vitoria Guimaraes 100%

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1943-01-10 GD Fabril W 7-2 1615 1616 61.0% 9.5% 29.5% +30.5 3
1943-01-10 @ Academica de Coimbra L 2-7 1616 1615 29.5% 9.5% 61.0% -30.5 0
1943-01-10 Porto W 4-0 1721 1683 65.5% 9.5% 25.0% +30.6 3
1943-01-10 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 0-4 1683 1721 25.0% 9.5% 65.5% -30.6 0
1943-01-10 Olhanense D 0-0 1428 1490 53.0% 9.5% 37.5% -1.3 1
1943-01-10 @ Leixoes D 0-0 1490 1428 37.5% 9.5% 53.0% +1.4 1
1943-01-10 Benfica L 2-3 1593 1717 44.4% 9.5% 46.0% -13.0 0
1943-01-10 @ Unidos de Lisboa W 3-2 1717 1593 46.0% 9.5% 44.4% +13.0 3
1943-01-10 Sporting Clube de Portugal L 2-4 1503 1733 30.1% 9.5% 60.4% -14.9 0
1943-01-10 @ Vitoria Guimaraes W 4-2 1733 1503 60.4% 9.5% 30.1% +14.9 3
1943-01-17 Leixoes W 8-2 1646 1426 80.2% 9.3% 10.5% +13.3 6
1943-01-17 @ Academica de Coimbra L 2-8 1426 1646 10.5% 9.3% 80.2% -13.3 1
1943-01-17 Vitoria Guimaraes W 12-0 1752 1488 82.4% 9.3% 8.3% +30.1 6
1943-01-17 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 0-12 1488 1752 8.3% 9.3% 82.4% -30.1 0
1943-01-17 Benfica L 0-1 1492 1730 29.1% 9.5% 61.4% -9.9 1
1943-01-17 @ Olhanense W 1-0 1730 1492 61.4% 9.5% 29.1% +9.9 6
1943-01-17 Sporting Clube de Portugal D 2-2 1652 1748 48.4% 9.5% 42.1% -0.4 1
1943-01-17 @ Porto D 2-2 1748 1652 42.1% 9.5% 48.4% +0.4 4
1943-01-17 GD Fabril W 9-3 1580 1586 60.4% 9.5% 30.1% +32.6 3
1943-01-17 @ Unidos de Lisboa L 3-9 1586 1580 30.1% 9.5% 60.4% -32.6 0
1943-01-24 Os Belenenses (1st) L 2-4 1659 1782 44.5% 9.5% 46.0% -21.3 6
1943-01-24 @ Academica de Coimbra W 4-2 1782 1659 46.0% 9.5% 44.5% +21.3 9
1943-01-24 Vitoria Guimaraes W 8-3 1739 1458 83.1% 9.3% 7.6% +7.5 9
1943-01-24 @ Benfica L 3-8 1458 1739 7.6% 9.3% 83.1% -7.5 0
1943-01-24 Porto L 0-4 1413 1652 29.1% 9.5% 61.5% -35.2 1
1943-01-24 @ Leixoes W 4-0 1652 1413 61.5% 9.5% 29.1% +35.2 4
1943-01-24 GD Fabril W 5-1 1482 1553 51.8% 9.5% 38.6% +38.2 4
1943-01-24 @ Olhanense L 1-5 1553 1482 38.6% 9.5% 51.8% -38.2 0
1943-01-24 Unidos de Lisboa W 4-3 1748 1613 74.6% 9.4% 16.0% +4.9 7
1943-01-24 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 3-4 1613 1748 16.0% 9.4% 74.6% -4.9 3
1943-01-31 Unidos de Lisboa W 2-0 1803 1608 78.8% 9.4% 11.9% +7.9 12
1943-01-31 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 0-2 1608 1803 11.9% 9.4% 78.8% -7.9 3
1943-01-31 Benfica L 2-3 1515 1747 29.8% 9.5% 60.7% -9.0 0
1943-01-31 @ GD Fabril W 3-2 1747 1515 60.7% 9.5% 29.8% +9.0 12
1943-01-31 Olhanense W 3-2 1687 1520 76.9% 9.4% 13.7% +4.3 7
1943-01-31 @ Porto L 2-3 1520 1687 13.7% 9.4% 76.9% -4.3 4
1943-01-31 Academica de Coimbra L 2-4 1753 1638 72.9% 9.4% 17.6% -34.3 7
1943-01-31 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal W 4-2 1638 1753 17.6% 9.4% 72.9% +34.3 9
1943-01-31 Leixoes W 7-1 1451 1378 69.0% 9.5% 21.5% +32.0 3
1943-01-31 @ Vitoria Guimaraes L 1-7 1378 1451 21.5% 9.5% 69.0% -32.0 1
1943-02-07 Porto W 12-2 1756 1691 68.2% 9.5% 22.3% +43.4 15
1943-02-07 @ Benfica L 2-12 1691 1756 22.3% 9.5% 68.2% -43.4 7
1943-02-07 Vitoria Guimaraes L 1-3 1506 1483 63.8% 9.5% 26.7% -33.5 0
1943-02-07 @ GD Fabril W 3-1 1483 1506 26.7% 9.5% 63.8% +33.5 6
1943-02-07 Sporting Clube de Portugal L 0-4 1346 1719 15.9% 9.3% 74.8% -19.8 1
1943-02-07 @ Leixoes W 4-0 1719 1346 74.8% 9.3% 15.9% +19.8 10
1943-02-07 Os Belenenses (1st) L 0-4 1516 1811 22.8% 9.4% 67.8% -28.0 4
1943-02-07 @ Olhanense W 4-0 1811 1516 67.8% 9.4% 22.8% +28.0 15
1943-02-07 Academica de Coimbra W 7-4 1600 1672 51.7% 9.5% 38.8% +22.7 6
1943-02-07 @ Unidos de Lisboa L 4-7 1672 1600 38.8% 9.5% 51.7% -22.7 9
1943-02-14 Vitoria Guimaraes W 4-0 1649 1516 74.4% 9.4% 16.2% +20.2 12
1943-02-14 @ Academica de Coimbra L 0-4 1516 1649 16.2% 9.4% 74.4% -20.2 6
1943-02-14 Os Belenenses (1st) W 4-2 1799 1839 56.0% 9.5% 34.4% +16.8 18
1943-02-14 @ Benfica L 2-4 1839 1799 34.4% 9.5% 56.0% -16.8 15
1943-02-14 Leixoes W 6-0 1472 1326 75.4% 9.4% 15.2% +27.8 3
1943-02-14 @ GD Fabril L 0-6 1326 1472 15.2% 9.4% 75.4% -27.8 1
1943-02-14 Unidos de Lisboa L 2-6 1648 1623 64.0% 9.5% 26.5% -52.0 7
1943-02-14 @ Porto W 6-2 1623 1648 26.5% 9.5% 64.0% +52.0 9
1943-02-14 Olhanense W 5-1 1739 1488 81.8% 9.3% 8.9% +9.4 13
1943-02-14 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 1-5 1488 1739 8.9% 9.3% 81.8% -9.4 4
1943-02-21 Sporting Clube de Portugal W 5-0 1822 1748 69.2% 9.5% 21.3% +32.5 18
1943-02-21 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 0-5 1748 1822 21.3% 9.5% 69.2% -32.4 13
1943-02-21 Leixoes W 3-0 1816 1298 89.1% 8.8% 2.1% +2.0 21
1943-02-21 @ Benfica L 0-3 1298 1816 2.1% 8.8% 89.1% -2.0 1
1943-02-21 Academica de Coimbra W 5-2 1478 1670 35.0% 9.5% 55.5% +35.8 7
1943-02-21 @ Olhanense L 2-5 1670 1478 55.5% 9.5% 35.0% -35.8 12
1943-02-21 GD Fabril L 3-4 1596 1500 71.2% 9.5% 19.3% -20.0 7
1943-02-21 @ Porto W 4-3 1500 1596 19.3% 9.5% 71.2% +20.0 6
1943-02-21 Unidos de Lisboa D 4-4 1496 1675 36.7% 9.5% 53.8% +0.7 7
1943-02-21 @ Vitoria Guimaraes D 4-4 1675 1496 53.8% 9.5% 36.7% -0.7 10
1943-02-28 Os Belenenses (1st) L 0-8 1520 1855 19.0% 9.4% 71.6% -45.4 6
1943-02-28 @ GD Fabril W 8-0 1855 1520 71.6% 9.4% 19.0% +45.4 21
1943-02-28 Academica de Coimbra D 1-1 1576 1634 53.6% 9.5% 36.8% -1.3 8
1943-02-28 @ Porto D 1-1 1634 1576 36.8% 9.5% 53.6% +1.3 13
1943-02-28 Benfica W 3-2 1716 1818 47.4% 9.5% 43.1% +12.7 16
1943-02-28 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 2-3 1818 1716 43.1% 9.5% 47.4% -12.7 21
1943-02-28 Leixoes W 8-2 1674 1296 86.4% 9.1% 4.5% +5.8 13
1943-02-28 @ Unidos de Lisboa L 2-8 1296 1674 4.5% 9.1% 86.4% -5.8 1
1943-02-28 Olhanense D 3-3 1497 1514 58.9% 9.5% 31.6% -1.3 8
1943-02-28 @ Vitoria Guimaraes D 3-3 1514 1497 31.6% 9.5% 58.9% +1.3 8
1943-03-07 Academica de Coimbra W 6-2 1806 1635 77.1% 9.4% 13.5% +12.0 24
1943-03-07 @ Benfica L 2-6 1635 1806 13.5% 9.4% 77.1% -12.0 13
1943-03-07 Os Belenenses (1st) L 2-4 1290 1900 4.6% 9.0% 86.4% -2.4 1
1943-03-07 @ Leixoes W 4-2 1900 1290 86.4% 9.0% 4.6% +2.4 24
1943-03-07 Unidos de Lisboa W 4-3 1515 1680 38.7% 9.5% 51.8% +14.6 11
1943-03-07 @ Olhanense L 3-4 1680 1515 51.8% 9.5% 38.7% -14.6 13
1943-03-07 GD Fabril W 5-1 1728 1475 81.9% 9.3% 8.8% +9.3 19
1943-03-07 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 1-5 1475 1728 8.8% 9.3% 81.9% -9.3 6
1943-03-07 Porto W 3-2 1495 1575 50.7% 9.5% 39.8% +11.8 11
1943-03-07 @ Vitoria Guimaraes L 2-3 1575 1495 39.8% 9.5% 50.7% -11.8 8
1943-03-14 Unidos de Lisboa W 5-2 1818 1665 75.9% 9.4% 14.7% +10.3 27
1943-03-14 @ Benfica L 2-5 1665 1818 14.7% 9.4% 75.9% -10.3 13
1943-03-14 Academica de Coimbra W 4-2 1465 1623 39.6% 9.5% 50.9% +24.1 9
1943-03-14 @ GD Fabril L 2-4 1623 1465 50.9% 9.5% 39.6% -24.1 13
1943-03-14 Leixoes W 4-1 1530 1288 81.3% 9.3% 9.3% +7.7 14
1943-03-14 @ Olhanense L 1-4 1288 1530 9.3% 9.3% 81.3% -7.7 1
1943-03-14 Os Belenenses (1st) W 3-1 1563 1903 18.6% 9.4% 72.0% +37.8 11
1943-03-14 @ Porto L 1-3 1903 1563 72.0% 9.4% 18.6% -37.8 24
1943-03-14 Vitoria Guimaraes W 4-1 1738 1507 80.8% 9.3% 9.9% +8.1 22
1943-03-14 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 1-4 1507 1738 9.9% 9.3% 80.8% -8.1 11
1943-03-21 Olhanense W 3-1 1828 1538 83.5% 9.3% 7.2% +4.2 30
1943-03-21 @ Benfica L 1-3 1538 1828 7.2% 9.3% 83.5% -4.2 14
1943-03-21 Unidos de Lisboa L 2-4 1489 1655 38.5% 9.5% 52.0% -18.7 9
1943-03-21 @ GD Fabril W 4-2 1655 1489 52.0% 9.5% 38.5% +18.7 16
1943-03-21 Academica de Coimbra D 2-2 1280 1599 20.5% 9.4% 70.1% +3.0 2
1943-03-21 @ Leixoes D 2-2 1599 1280 70.1% 9.4% 20.5% -3.0 14
1943-03-21 Porto W 5-2 1746 1601 75.3% 9.4% 15.3% +10.7 25
1943-03-21 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 2-5 1601 1746 15.3% 9.4% 75.3% -10.7 11
1943-03-21 Os Belenenses (1st) W 3-1 1499 1865 16.4% 9.4% 74.2% +39.0 14
1943-03-21 @ Vitoria Guimaraes L 1-3 1865 1499 74.2% 9.4% 16.4% -39.0 24
1943-03-28 Academica de Coimbra W 2-0 1826 1596 80.7% 9.3% 10.0% +6.6 27
1943-03-28 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 0-2 1596 1826 10.0% 9.3% 80.7% -6.6 14
1943-03-28 Olhanense L 4-5 1471 1533 53.0% 9.5% 37.5% -14.7 9
1943-03-28 @ GD Fabril W 5-4 1533 1471 37.5% 9.5% 53.0% +14.7 17
1943-03-28 Leixoes W 5-1 1590 1283 84.1% 9.2% 6.6% +7.0 14
1943-03-28 @ Porto L 1-5 1283 1590 6.6% 9.2% 84.1% -7.0 2
1943-03-28 Sporting Clube de Portugal L 2-4 1674 1756 50.2% 9.5% 40.3% -23.8 16
1943-03-28 @ Unidos de Lisboa W 4-2 1756 1674 40.3% 9.5% 50.2% +23.8 28
1943-03-28 Benfica W 5-1 1538 1832 22.9% 9.4% 67.7% +64.8 17
1943-03-28 @ Vitoria Guimaraes L 1-5 1832 1538 67.7% 9.4% 22.9% -64.8 30
1943-04-04 Sporting Clube de Portugal L 2-7 1589 1780 35.1% 9.5% 55.4% -35.9 14
1943-04-04 @ Academica de Coimbra W 7-2 1780 1589 55.4% 9.5% 35.1% +35.9 31
1943-04-04 GD Fabril W 7-1 1767 1456 84.3% 9.2% 6.5% +10.0 33
1943-04-04 @ Benfica L 1-7 1456 1767 6.5% 9.2% 84.3% -10.0 9
1943-04-04 Vitoria Guimaraes L 2-6 1276 1603 19.8% 9.4% 70.8% -17.3 2
1943-04-04 @ Leixoes W 6-2 1603 1276 70.8% 9.4% 19.8% +17.3 20
1943-04-04 Porto W 3-0 1548 1597 54.9% 9.5% 35.6% +32.6 20
1943-04-04 @ Olhanense L 0-3 1597 1548 35.6% 9.5% 54.9% -32.6 14
1943-04-04 Os Belenenses (1st) L 0-5 1650 1833 36.2% 9.5% 54.3% -53.2 16
1943-04-04 @ Unidos de Lisboa W 5-0 1833 1650 54.3% 9.5% 36.2% +53.2 30
1943-04-11 Unidos de Lisboa L 2-3 1554 1597 55.6% 9.5% 34.8% -16.0 14
1943-04-11 @ Academica de Coimbra W 3-2 1597 1554 34.8% 9.5% 55.6% +16.0 19
1943-04-11 Olhanense W 8-0 1886 1581 84.1% 9.2% 6.7% +16.5 33
1943-04-11 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 0-8 1581 1886 6.7% 9.2% 84.1% -16.4 20
1943-04-11 Benfica L 2-4 1564 1777 32.2% 9.5% 58.3% -15.8 14
1943-04-11 @ Porto W 4-2 1777 1564 58.3% 9.5% 32.2% +15.9 36
1943-04-11 Leixoes W 4-3 1816 1259 89.6% 8.8% 1.7% +0.5 34
1943-04-11 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 3-4 1259 1816 1.7% 8.8% 89.6% -0.5 2
1943-04-11 GD Fabril L 2-3 1620 1446 77.4% 9.4% 13.2% -22.3 20
1943-04-11 @ Vitoria Guimaraes W 3-2 1446 1620 13.2% 9.4% 77.4% +22.3 12
1943-04-25 Benfica W 5-2 1902 1793 72.4% 9.4% 18.1% +12.6 36
1943-04-25 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 2-5 1793 1902 18.1% 9.4% 72.4% -12.6 36
1943-04-25 GD Fabril L 1-6 1258 1468 32.6% 9.5% 57.9% -40.0 2
1943-04-25 @ Leixoes W 6-1 1468 1258 57.9% 9.5% 32.6% +40.1 15
1943-04-25 Sporting Clube de Portugal L 1-3 1564 1817 27.5% 9.5% 63.1% -15.3 20
1943-04-25 @ Olhanense W 3-1 1817 1564 63.1% 9.5% 27.5% +15.3 37
1943-04-25 Porto D 0-0 1613 1549 68.2% 9.5% 22.4% -4.1 20
1943-04-25 @ Unidos de Lisboa D 0-0 1549 1613 22.4% 9.5% 68.2% +4.1 15
1943-04-25 Academica de Coimbra L 1-2 1598 1538 67.8% 9.5% 22.7% -20.5 20
1943-04-25 @ Vitoria Guimaraes W 2-1 1538 1598 22.7% 9.5% 67.8% +20.5 17
1943-05-02 Olhanense L 2-6 1558 1549 62.1% 9.5% 28.3% -50.5 17
1943-05-02 @ Academica de Coimbra W 6-2 1549 1558 28.3% 9.5% 62.1% +50.5 23
1943-05-02 Porto D 1-1 1508 1553 55.5% 9.5% 35.0% -1.6 16
1943-05-02 @ GD Fabril D 1-1 1553 1508 35.0% 9.5% 55.5% +1.6 16
1943-05-02 Benfica L 2-4 1218 1781 6.0% 9.1% 85.0% -3.1 2
1943-05-02 @ Leixoes W 4-2 1781 1218 85.0% 9.1% 6.0% +3.1 39
1943-05-02 Os Belenenses (1st) W 2-1 1832 1915 50.2% 9.5% 40.3% +12.6 40
1943-05-02 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 1-2 1915 1832 40.3% 9.5% 50.2% -12.6 36
1943-05-02 Vitoria Guimaraes W 14-0 1608 1577 64.7% 9.5% 25.8% +104.1 23
1943-05-02 @ Unidos de Lisboa L 0-14 1577 1608 25.8% 9.5% 64.7% -104.1 20
1943-05-09 Porto W 5-2 1508 1554 55.1% 9.5% 35.4% +23.6 20
1943-05-09 @ Academica de Coimbra L 2-5 1554 1508 35.4% 9.5% 55.1% -23.6 16
1943-05-09 GD Fabril W 5-2 1902 1507 86.8% 9.1% 4.1% +2.9 39
1943-05-09 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 2-5 1507 1902 4.1% 9.1% 86.8% -2.9 16
1943-05-09 Sporting Clube de Portugal W 2-1 1784 1844 53.2% 9.5% 37.2% +11.7 42
1943-05-09 @ Benfica L 1-2 1844 1784 37.2% 9.5% 53.2% -11.7 40
1943-05-09 Unidos de Lisboa L 0-1 1215 1713 8.5% 9.2% 82.4% -3.0 2
1943-05-09 @ Leixoes W 1-0 1713 1215 82.4% 9.2% 8.5% +3.0 26
1943-05-09 Vitoria Guimaraes W 4-3 1600 1473 73.9% 9.4% 16.7% +5.1 26
1943-05-09 @ Olhanense L 3-4 1473 1600 16.7% 9.4% 73.9% -5.1 20
1943-05-16 Benfica L 3-4 1531 1795 26.1% 9.5% 64.4% -7.8 20
1943-05-16 @ Academica de Coimbra W 4-3 1795 1531 64.4% 9.5% 26.1% +7.8 45
1943-05-16 Leixoes W 5-0 1905 1212 90.8% 8.4% 0.8% +1.2 42
1943-05-16 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 0-5 1212 1905 0.8% 8.4% 90.8% -1.2 2
1943-05-16 Sporting Clube de Portugal L 3-7 1504 1833 19.6% 9.4% 71.0% -15.6 16
1943-05-16 @ GD Fabril W 7-3 1833 1504 71.0% 9.4% 19.6% +15.6 43
1943-05-16 Vitoria Guimaraes W 6-2 1531 1468 68.0% 9.5% 22.5% +19.6 19
1943-05-16 @ Porto L 2-6 1468 1531 22.5% 9.5% 68.0% -19.6 20
1943-05-16 Olhanense W 2-0 1716 1605 72.5% 9.4% 18.0% +11.8 29
1943-05-16 @ Unidos de Lisboa L 0-2 1605 1716 18.0% 9.4% 72.5% -11.8 26

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1943-04-11 13.22% GD Fabril 1446 3 @ Vitoria Guimaraes 1620 2
2 1943-03-21 16.42% @ Vitoria Guimaraes 1499 3 Os Belenenses (1st) 1865 1
3 1943-01-31 17.62% Academica de Coimbra 1638 4 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal 1753 2
4 1943-03-14 18.59% @ Porto 1563 3 Os Belenenses (1st) 1903 1
5 1943-02-21 19.30% GD Fabril 1500 4 @ Porto 1596 3
6 1943-04-25 22.72% Academica de Coimbra 1538 2 @ Vitoria Guimaraes 1598 1
7 1943-03-28 22.92% @ Vitoria Guimaraes 1538 5 Benfica 1832 1
8 1943-02-14 26.47% Unidos de Lisboa 1623 6 @ Porto 1648 2
9 1943-02-07 26.74% Vitoria Guimaraes 1483 3 @ GD Fabril 1506 1
10 1943-05-02 28.35% Olhanense 1549 6 @ Academica de Coimbra 1558 2
11 1943-04-11 34.85% Unidos de Lisboa 1597 3 @ Academica de Coimbra 1554 2
12 1943-02-21 35.03% @ Olhanense 1478 5 Academica de Coimbra 1670 2
13 1943-03-28 37.50% Olhanense 1533 5 @ GD Fabril 1471 4
14 1943-03-07 38.66% @ Olhanense 1515 4 Unidos de Lisboa 1680 3
15 1943-03-14 39.57% @ GD Fabril 1465 4 Academica de Coimbra 1623 2
16 1943-03-28 40.28% Sporting Clube de Portugal 1756 4 @ Unidos de Lisboa 1674 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1943-05-02 104.08 @ Unidos de Lisboa 14 1608 64.69% Vitoria Guimaraes 0 1577 25.81%
2 1943-03-28 64.78 @ Vitoria Guimaraes 5 1538 22.92% Benfica 1 1832 67.65%
3 1943-04-04 53.19 Os Belenenses (1st) 5 1833 54.34% @ Unidos de Lisboa 0 1650 36.16%
4 1943-02-14 52.05 Unidos de Lisboa 6 1623 26.47% @ Porto 2 1648 64.03%
5 1943-05-02 50.53 Olhanense 6 1549 28.35% @ Academica de Coimbra 2 1558 62.14%
6 1943-02-28 45.41 Os Belenenses (1st) 8 1855 71.58% @ GD Fabril 0 1520 19.03%
7 1943-02-07 43.43 @ Benfica 12 1756 68.22% Porto 2 1691 22.29%
8 1943-04-25 40.05 GD Fabril 6 1468 57.89% @ Leixoes 1 1258 32.62%
9 1943-03-21 38.99 @ Vitoria Guimaraes 3 1499 16.42% Os Belenenses (1st) 1 1865 74.22%
10 1943-01-24 38.24 @ Olhanense 5 1482 51.82% GD Fabril 1 1553 38.65%
11 1943-03-14 37.81 @ Porto 3 1563 18.59% Os Belenenses (1st) 1 1903 72.02%
12 1943-04-04 35.86 Sporting Clube de Portugal 7 1780 55.40% @ Academica de Coimbra 2 1589 35.11%
13 1943-02-21 35.78 @ Olhanense 5 1478 35.03% Academica de Coimbra 2 1670 55.47%
14 1943-01-24 35.23 Porto 4 1652 61.47% @ Leixoes 0 1413 29.06%
15 1943-01-31 34.27 Academica de Coimbra 4 1638 17.62% @ Sporting Clube de Portugal 2 1753 72.93%
16 1943-02-07 33.45 Vitoria Guimaraes 3 1483 26.74% @ GD Fabril 1 1506 63.76%
17 1943-01-17 32.63 @ Unidos de Lisboa 9 1580 60.41% GD Fabril 3 1586 30.08%
18 1943-04-04 32.60 @ Olhanense 3 1548 54.85% Porto 0 1597 35.63%
19 1943-02-21 32.46 @ Os Belenenses (1st) 5 1822 69.20% Sporting Clube de Portugal 0 1748 21.32%
20 1943-01-31 32.02 @ Vitoria Guimaraes 7 1451 69.05% Leixoes 1 1378 21.47%
21 1943-01-10 30.64 @ Os Belenenses (1st) 4 1721 65.48% Porto 0 1683 25.03%
22 1943-01-10 30.55 @ Academica de Coimbra 7 1615 60.96% GD Fabril 2 1616 29.52%
23 1943-01-17 30.15 @ Os Belenenses (1st) 12 1752 82.36% Vitoria Guimaraes 0 1488 8.34%
24 1943-02-07 28.00 Os Belenenses (1st) 4 1811 67.80% @ Olhanense 0 1516 22.77%
25 1943-02-14 27.85 @ GD Fabril 6 1472 75.39% Leixoes 0 1326 15.18%