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1943-44 Primeira Divisão Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Sporting Clube de Portugal

31 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Vitoria Setubal

4.70 points above expected

17 points · 12.30 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Salgueiros

5.35 points below expected

3 points · 8.35 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Sporting Clube de Portugal 18 14 3 1 31 61 22 +39 26.78 +4.22
2 Benfica 18 11 4 3 26 57 34 +23 25.07 +0.93
3 Atletico Clube de Portugal 18 9 6 3 24 51 28 +23 24.20 -0.20
4 Porto 18 10 3 5 23 46 36 +10 18.86 +4.14
5 Olhanense 18 10 2 6 22 65 34 +31 22.15 -0.15
6 Os Belenenses (1st) 18 9 3 6 21 41 32 +9 22.11 -1.11
7 Vitoria Setubal 18 7 3 8 17 52 50 +2 12.30 +4.70
8 Vitoria Guimaraes 18 2 3 13 7 25 68 -43 10.51 -3.51
9 Academica de Coimbra 18 3 0 15 6 35 68 -33 9.67 -3.67
10 Salgueiros 18 1 1 16 3 23 84 -61 8.35 -5.35

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Sporting Clube de Portugal 2288 31 26.78 +4.22 95.7% 14 22 25 27 29 31 36
Benfica 1953 26 25.07 +0.93 67.8% 13 20 23 25 27 30 36
Porto 1946 23 18.86 +4.14 93.3% 8 14 17 19 21 24 30
Olhanense 1914 22 22.15 -0.15 53.7% 11 17 20 22 24 27 33
Vitoria Setubal 1842 17 12.30 +4.70 97.1% 4 8 10 12 14 17 24
Atletico Clube de Portugal 1810 24 24.20 -0.20 53.1% 13 19 22 24 26 29 35
Os Belenenses (1st) 1508 21 22.11 -1.11 41.2% 11 17 20 22 24 27 33
Academica de Coimbra 1240 6 9.67 -3.67 13.6% 0 5 8 10 12 14 21
Vitoria Guimaraes 964 7 10.51 -3.51 15.2% 0 6 9 10 12 15 22
Salgueiros 929 3 8.35 -5.35 3.1% 0 4 6 8 10 13 20

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ADC ACDP BEN OLH OB( POR SAL SCDP VG VS
Academica de Coimbra —
0-0-2
0.42
0-0-2
0.38
0-0-2
1.86
0-0-2
0.66
0-0-2
1.40
1-0-1
2.81
0-0-2
1.09
2-0-0
2.86
0-0-2
1.54
Atletico Clube de Portugal
2-0-0
5.26
 —
1-0-1
2.56
0-1-1
3.55
1-1-0
3.82
0-1-1
3.91
2-0-0
4.42
0-2-0
1.51
2-0-0
4.96
1-1-0
4.86
Benfica
2-0-0
5.30
1-0-1
3.11
 —
1-0-1
3.20
1-1-0
4.15
1-1-0
3.97
2-0-0
4.67
1-0-1
1.69
1-1-0
5.15
1-1-0
4.93
Olhanense
2-0-0
3.82
1-1-0
2.12
1-0-1
2.47
 —
1-0-1
2.77
1-0-1
3.85
2-0-0
5.20
0-0-2
2.42
1-0-1
4.00
1-1-0
5.10
Os Belenenses (1st)
2-0-0
5.02
0-1-1
1.85
0-1-1
1.52
1-0-1
2.91
 —
1-0-1
2.79
2-0-0
5.16
0-1-1
3.39
2-0-0
4.61
1-0-1
4.37
Porto
2-0-0
4.27
1-1-0
1.76
0-1-1
1.70
1-0-1
1.83
1-0-1
2.88
 —
2-0-0
4.97
0-0-2
1.13
1-1-0
3.69
2-0-0
4.57
Salgueiros
1-0-1
2.86
0-0-2
1.25
0-0-2
1.01
0-0-2
0.49
0-0-2
0.52
0-0-2
0.71
 —
0-0-2
0.35
0-1-1
3.30
0-0-2
0.63
Sporting Clube de Portugal
2-0-0
4.59
0-2-0
4.16
1-0-1
3.98
2-0-0
3.25
1-1-0
2.28
2-0-0
4.54
2-0-0
5.34
 —
2-0-0
5.36
2-0-0
5.21
Vitoria Guimaraes
0-0-2
2.81
0-0-2
0.71
0-1-1
0.53
1-0-1
1.67
0-0-2
1.06
0-1-1
1.99
1-1-0
2.37
0-0-2
0.33
 —
0-0-2
2.80
Vitoria Setubal
2-0-0
4.14
0-1-1
0.82
0-1-1
0.75
0-1-1
0.57
1-0-1
1.30
0-0-2
1.11
2-0-0
5.05
0-0-2
0.47
2-0-0
2.87
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.76 +5.7
Allowed 0.95 -4.4
Differential 0.94 +2.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—1.11%2.78%1.11%1.11%3.89%10.00%
11.11%4.44%5.56%6.67%2.22%6.11%26.11%
22.78%5.56%8.89%3.89%0.56%1.11%22.78%
31.11%6.67%3.89%1.11%1.11%3.33%17.22%
41.11%2.22%0.56%1.11%1.11%1.67%7.78%
5+3.89%6.11%1.11%3.33%1.67%—16.11%
Total10.00%26.11%22.78%17.22%7.78%16.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.53 2.53 +0.00
SD 2.00 2.00 3.20
CV 0.79 0.79 —
Max 10 10 +10
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%——5.56%16.67%
1——11.11%22.22%5.56%5.56%44.44%
2———5.56%—5.56%11.11%
3——5.56%—5.56%5.56%16.67%
4———————
5+—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
Total—5.56%27.78%27.78%16.67%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 3.78 -1.83
SD 2.18 2.32 3.17
CV 1.12 0.61 —
Max 9 9 +5
Min 0 1 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%———5.56%
1—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
2—5.56%22.22%———27.78%
35.56%11.11%5.56%—5.56%—27.78%
45.56%11.11%——5.56%—22.22%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total16.67%33.33%38.89%—11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.83 1.56 +1.28
SD 1.72 1.15 2.35
CV 0.61 0.74 —
Max 8 4 +8
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
1—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
2—16.67%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
3———————
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+—16.67%—11.11%11.11%—38.89%
Total—55.56%11.11%22.22%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.17 1.89 +1.28
SD 2.04 1.13 2.02
CV 0.64 0.60 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 1 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1——11.11%11.11%——22.22%
25.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
4——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
5+11.11%16.67%11.11%———38.89%
Total16.67%16.67%38.89%22.22%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.61 1.89 +1.72
SD 2.23 1.28 2.97
CV 0.62 0.68 —
Max 8 5 +8
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%———5.56%11.11%
1—11.11%11.11%5.56%—5.56%33.33%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
3—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+—11.11%————11.11%
Total5.56%55.56%22.22%5.56%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 1.78 +0.50
SD 1.71 1.52 2.79
CV 0.75 0.85 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
15.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
2——11.11%—5.56%—16.67%
35.56%22.22%5.56%——5.56%38.89%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+5.56%——5.56%——11.11%
Total16.67%27.78%22.22%16.67%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.56 2.00 +0.56
SD 1.72 1.61 2.43
CV 0.67 0.80 —
Max 7 6 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.56%5.56%11.11%22.22%
1——11.11%5.56%—33.33%50.00%
2——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
3—5.56%———5.56%11.11%
4—————5.56%5.56%
5+———————
Total—5.56%16.67%11.11%5.56%61.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 4.67 -3.39
SD 1.13 2.35 2.59
CV 0.88 0.50 —
Max 4 10 +2
Min 0 1 -10

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
15.56%5.56%————11.11%
216.67%5.56%11.11%———33.33%
3—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
4———5.56%—5.56%11.11%
5+11.11%11.11%————22.22%
Total33.33%33.33%22.22%5.56%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.39 1.22 +2.17
SD 2.23 1.31 2.64
CV 0.66 1.07 —
Max 10 5 +10
Min 1 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%——11.11%16.67%
1——5.56%—16.67%16.67%38.89%
2—11.11%16.67%5.56%——33.33%
3—————11.11%11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total—11.11%27.78%5.56%16.67%38.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 3.78 -2.39
SD 0.92 2.05 2.43
CV 0.66 0.54 —
Max 3 8 +1
Min 0 1 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.56%—5.56%11.11%
1—5.56%—11.11%——16.67%
25.56%11.11%—16.67%——33.33%
3———5.56%—5.56%11.11%
4————5.56%—5.56%
5+5.56%——16.67%——22.22%
Total11.11%16.67%—55.56%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.89 2.78 +0.11
SD 2.49 1.86 3.45
CV 0.86 0.67 —
Max 9 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Vitoria Setubal 17 12.30 +4.70
2 Sporting Clube de Portugal 31 26.78 +4.22
3 Porto 23 18.86 +4.14
4 Benfica 26 25.07 +0.93
5 Olhanense 22 22.15 -0.15

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Salgueiros 3 8.35 -5.35
2 Academica de Coimbra 6 9.67 -3.67
3 Vitoria Guimaraes 7 10.51 -3.51
4 Os Belenenses (1st) 21 22.11 -1.11
5 Atletico Clube de Portugal 24 24.20 -0.20

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Benfica 5 Jan 16 – Feb 13 1 in 15
2 Vitoria Setubal 4 Mar 5 – Mar 26 1 in 12
3 Sporting Clube de Portugal 6 Jan 23 – Feb 27 1 in 7
4 Olhanense 4 Dec 26 – Jan 16 1 in 6
5 Os Belenenses (1st) 5 Dec 26 – Jan 23 1 in 3

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vitoria Guimaraes 5 Dec 12 – Jan 9 1 in 73
2 Academica de Coimbra 6 Nov 28 – Jan 2 1 in 22
3 Salgueiros 10 Jan 23 – Mar 26 1 in 21
4 Os Belenenses (1st) 4 Jan 30 – Feb 20 1 in 8
5 Benfica 2 Mar 19 – Mar 26 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vitoria Setubal 5 Feb 27 – Mar 26 1 in 17
2 Os Belenenses (1st) 9 Nov 28 – Jan 23 1 in 11
3 Atletico Clube de Portugal 7 Nov 28 – Jan 9 1 in 9
4 Porto 5 Nov 28 – Dec 26 1 in 7
5 Benfica 9 Jan 16 – Mar 12 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vitoria Guimaraes 15 Dec 5 – Mar 12 1 in 60
2 Atletico Clube de Portugal 4 Mar 5 – Mar 26 1 in 14
3 Olhanense 3 Feb 20 – Mar 5 1 in 12
4 Salgueiros 14 Dec 26 – Mar 26 1 in 8
5 Academica de Coimbra 6 Nov 28 – Jan 2 1 in 5

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Sporting Clube de Portugal51.93%25.00%12.95%6.50%2.91%0.68%0.02%0.01%——
Benfica21.48%28.23%23.16%15.02%9.02%2.97%0.11%0.01%——
Atletico Clube de Portugal15.92%22.96%23.20%18.93%13.34%5.43%0.20%0.01%0.01%—
Porto0.45%1.78%4.85%10.17%21.71%52.91%6.52%1.42%0.16%0.03%
Olhanense6.49%12.89%19.60%23.69%23.06%13.33%0.85%0.09%——
Os Belenenses (1st)3.73%9.14%16.23%25.46%28.91%15.17%1.20%0.14%0.02%—
Vitoria Setubal——0.01%0.20%0.67%5.98%48.86%27.35%12.61%4.32%
Vitoria Guimaraes———0.03%0.23%1.86%20.37%30.37%28.03%19.11%
Academica de Coimbra————0.10%1.29%15.84%26.94%31.06%24.77%
Salgueiros————0.05%0.38%6.03%13.66%28.11%51.77%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+22.22%
Clear Edge
53.33%15.56%31.11%
Elo Value
Home Edge
203 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
078.52600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.82 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.39+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.9
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
52%
Sporting Clube de Portugal, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.28/gm
Tight Race
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.35 * Some Luck: 2.35 to 3.52 * Lucky: 3.52 to 4.7 * Wild Swing: 4.7 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.78 * Close: 0.78 to 1.17 * Off: 1.17 to 1.56 * Way Off: 1.56 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.37 points
Some Luck
02.937
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.40
Pinpoint
00.982
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
97.08%
Vitoria Setubal
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
3.09%
Salgueiros
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.28
Lopsided
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
2.24
Wide Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
97%
Wide Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 100%
100%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
41%
Frequent
0%36%100%
Blowouts
Expected
36%
Very Frequent
0%43%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.38
Highly Predictable
00.442
Matchup Imbalance
0.65
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.43
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.55
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
10%
Chalky
0%15%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
9%
Solid Favorites
0%12%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.15
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.37
Very Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.092
Well Within Noise
00.1410.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Academica de Coimbra 100%
Atletico Clube de Portugal 100%
Benfica 100%
Olhanense 100%
Os Belenenses (1st) 100%
Porto 100%
Salgueiros 100%
Sporting Clube de Portugal 100%
Vitoria Guimaraes 100%
Vitoria Setubal 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1943-11-28 Salgueiros W 4-0 1638 1638 57.2% 16.5% 26.3% +180.8 2
1943-11-28 @ Atletico Clube de Portugal L 0-4 1638 1638 26.3% 16.5% 57.2% -180.8 0
1943-11-28 Sporting Clube de Portugal D 1-1 1838 1777 63.5% 16.5% 20.0% -18.3 1
1943-11-28 @ Os Belenenses (1st) D 1-1 1777 1838 20.0% 16.5% 63.5% +18.3 1
1943-11-28 Academica de Coimbra W 3-2 1610 1600 58.4% 16.5% 25.1% +43.4 2
1943-11-28 @ Porto L 2-3 1600 1610 25.1% 16.5% 58.4% -43.4 0
1943-11-28 Olhanense W 2-1 1545 1644 44.3% 16.5% 39.2% +67.1 2
1943-11-28 @ Vitoria Guimaraes L 1-2 1644 1545 39.2% 16.5% 44.3% -67.1 0
1943-11-28 Benfica D 1-1 1350 1753 11.8% 16.4% 71.8% +26.2 1
1943-11-28 @ Vitoria Setubal D 1-1 1753 1350 71.8% 16.4% 11.8% -26.2 1
1943-12-05 Sporting Clube de Portugal L 3-4 1556 1796 25.9% 16.5% 57.7% -43.5 0
1943-12-05 @ Academica de Coimbra W 4-3 1796 1556 57.7% 16.5% 25.9% +43.5 3
1943-12-05 Vitoria Setubal W 3-2 1819 1377 81.2% 16.2% 2.6% +5.1 4
1943-12-05 @ Atletico Clube de Portugal L 2-3 1377 1819 2.6% 16.2% 81.2% -5.1 1
1943-12-05 Olhanense W 3-2 1819 1577 75.7% 16.4% 7.9% +15.0 3
1943-12-05 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 2-3 1577 1819 7.9% 16.4% 75.7% -15.0 0
1943-12-05 Benfica L 1-6 1457 1727 22.6% 16.4% 61.0% -161.1 0
1943-12-05 @ Salgueiros W 6-1 1727 1457 61.0% 16.4% 22.6% +161.1 3
1943-12-05 Porto D 2-2 1612 1653 52.1% 16.5% 31.4% -6.2 3
1943-12-05 @ Vitoria Guimaraes D 2-2 1653 1612 31.4% 16.5% 52.1% +6.2 3
1943-12-12 Olhanense L 1-5 1513 1562 51.1% 16.5% 32.4% -267.2 0
1943-12-12 @ Academica de Coimbra W 5-1 1562 1513 32.4% 16.5% 51.1% +267.2 2
1943-12-12 Vitoria Guimaraes W 4-1 1824 1605 74.6% 16.4% 9.0% +43.8 6
1943-12-12 @ Atletico Clube de Portugal L 1-4 1605 1824 9.0% 16.4% 74.6% -43.8 3
1943-12-12 Os Belenenses (1st) D 1-1 1888 1834 62.9% 16.5% 20.6% -17.7 4
1943-12-12 @ Benfica D 1-1 1834 1888 20.6% 16.5% 62.9% +17.7 4
1943-12-12 Salgueiros W 3-1 1660 1296 79.7% 16.2% 4.1% +14.4 5
1943-12-12 @ Porto L 1-3 1296 1660 4.1% 16.2% 79.7% -14.4 0
1943-12-12 Vitoria Setubal W 3-2 1839 1371 81.6% 16.1% 2.3% +4.5 5
1943-12-12 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 2-3 1371 1839 2.3% 16.1% 81.6% -4.5 1
1943-12-19 Os Belenenses (1st) D 2-2 1867 1852 58.9% 16.5% 24.6% -10.6 7
1943-12-19 @ Atletico Clube de Portugal D 2-2 1852 1867 24.6% 16.5% 58.9% +10.6 5
1943-12-19 Vitoria Guimaraes W 5-1 1870 1562 78.2% 16.3% 5.5% +35.4 6
1943-12-19 @ Benfica L 1-5 1562 1870 5.5% 16.3% 78.2% -35.4 3
1943-12-19 Sporting Clube de Portugal L 1-2 1829 1844 55.5% 16.5% 28.0% -91.2 2
1943-12-19 @ Olhanense W 2-1 1844 1829 28.0% 16.5% 55.5% +91.2 7
1943-12-19 Academica de Coimbra W 3-1 1281 1245 61.1% 16.5% 22.4% +71.6 2
1943-12-19 @ Salgueiros L 1-3 1245 1281 22.4% 16.5% 61.1% -71.6 0
1943-12-19 Porto L 1-3 1367 1674 19.0% 16.4% 64.6% -61.7 1
1943-12-19 @ Vitoria Setubal W 3-1 1674 1367 64.6% 16.4% 19.0% +61.7 7
1943-12-26 Atletico Clube de Portugal L 1-2 1174 1857 2.6% 16.1% 81.4% -5.3 0
1943-12-26 @ Academica de Coimbra W 2-1 1857 1174 81.4% 16.1% 2.6% +5.3 9
1943-12-26 Vitoria Guimaraes W 4-1 1863 1526 79.0% 16.3% 4.8% +23.6 7
1943-12-26 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 1-4 1526 1863 4.8% 16.3% 79.0% -23.6 3
1943-12-26 Vitoria Setubal W 8-0 1738 1305 81.0% 16.2% 2.8% +41.7 4
1943-12-26 @ Olhanense L 0-8 1305 1738 2.8% 16.2% 81.0% -41.7 1
1943-12-26 Benfica D 2-2 1736 1906 34.5% 16.5% 49.0% +4.3 8
1943-12-26 @ Porto D 2-2 1906 1736 49.0% 16.5% 34.5% -4.3 7
1943-12-26 Salgueiros W 10-0 1935 1353 82.8% 16.0% 1.2% +22.4 9
1943-12-26 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 0-10 1353 1935 1.2% 16.0% 82.8% -22.4 2
1944-01-02 Academica de Coimbra W 2-1 1901 1169 83.8% 15.7% 0.5% +1.0 9
1944-01-02 @ Benfica L 1-2 1169 1901 0.5% 15.7% 83.8% -1.0 0
1944-01-02 Porto W 4-2 1780 1740 61.5% 16.5% 22.0% +63.1 6
1944-01-02 @ Olhanense L 2-4 1740 1780 22.0% 16.5% 61.5% -63.0 8
1944-01-02 Os Belenenses (1st) L 1-6 1331 1886 5.2% 16.2% 78.6% -40.8 2
1944-01-02 @ Salgueiros W 6-1 1886 1331 78.6% 16.2% 5.2% +40.8 9
1944-01-02 Atletico Clube de Portugal D 2-2 1957 1862 66.6% 16.5% 16.9% -15.8 10
1944-01-02 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal D 2-2 1862 1957 16.9% 16.5% 66.6% +15.8 10
1944-01-02 Vitoria Setubal L 3-5 1503 1264 75.6% 16.4% 8.1% -183.6 3
1944-01-02 @ Vitoria Guimaraes W 5-3 1264 1503 8.1% 16.4% 75.6% +183.6 3
1944-01-09 Vitoria Guimaraes W 3-2 1168 1319 37.0% 16.5% 46.5% +73.6 2
1944-01-09 @ Academica de Coimbra L 2-3 1319 1168 46.5% 16.5% 37.0% -73.6 3
1944-01-09 Benfica W 3-1 1878 1902 54.3% 16.5% 29.2% +90.4 12
1944-01-09 @ Atletico Clube de Portugal L 1-3 1902 1878 29.2% 16.5% 54.3% -90.4 9
1944-01-09 Olhanense L 2-5 1290 1843 5.3% 16.2% 78.5% -22.7 2
1944-01-09 @ Salgueiros W 5-2 1843 1290 78.5% 16.2% 5.3% +22.7 8
1944-01-09 Porto W 2-0 1941 1677 76.6% 16.4% 7.0% +28.2 12
1944-01-09 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 0-2 1677 1941 7.0% 16.4% 76.6% -28.2 8
1944-01-09 Os Belenenses (1st) L 1-3 1447 1927 7.8% 16.3% 75.8% -27.1 3
1944-01-09 @ Vitoria Setubal W 3-1 1927 1447 75.8% 16.3% 7.8% +27.1 11
1944-01-16 Porto W 4-0 1954 1649 78.1% 16.3% 5.6% +43.2 13
1944-01-16 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 0-4 1649 1954 5.6% 16.3% 78.1% -43.2 8
1944-01-16 Sporting Clube de Portugal W 5-4 1812 1970 36.1% 16.5% 47.4% +72.0 11
1944-01-16 @ Benfica L 4-5 1970 1812 47.4% 16.5% 36.1% -72.0 12
1944-01-16 Atletico Clube de Portugal W 2-0 1866 1968 43.9% 16.5% 39.6% +135.4 10
1944-01-16 @ Olhanense L 0-2 1968 1866 39.6% 16.5% 43.9% -135.4 12
1944-01-16 Vitoria Guimaraes D 2-2 1267 1245 59.6% 16.5% 23.9% -11.0 3
1944-01-16 @ Salgueiros D 2-2 1245 1267 23.9% 16.5% 59.6% +11.0 4
1944-01-16 Academica de Coimbra W 2-0 1420 1241 72.5% 16.4% 11.1% +43.4 5
1944-01-16 @ Vitoria Setubal L 0-2 1241 1420 11.1% 16.4% 72.5% -43.4 2
1944-01-23 Os Belenenses (1st) L 1-3 1198 1997 1.3% 15.9% 82.8% -4.7 2
1944-01-23 @ Academica de Coimbra W 3-1 1997 1198 82.8% 15.9% 1.3% +4.8 15
1944-01-23 Olhanense W 5-4 1884 2001 41.9% 16.5% 41.6% +64.4 13
1944-01-23 @ Benfica L 4-5 2001 1884 41.6% 16.5% 41.9% -64.5 10
1944-01-23 Atletico Clube de Portugal D 1-1 1606 1833 27.3% 16.5% 56.3% +11.8 9
1944-01-23 @ Porto D 1-1 1833 1606 56.3% 16.5% 27.3% -11.8 13
1944-01-23 Vitoria Guimaraes W 6-0 1898 1256 83.3% 15.9% 0.9% +9.8 14
1944-01-23 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 0-6 1256 1898 0.9% 15.9% 83.3% -9.8 4
1944-01-23 Salgueiros W 2-1 1464 1256 74.1% 16.4% 9.5% +18.9 7
1944-01-23 @ Vitoria Setubal L 1-2 1256 1464 9.5% 16.4% 74.1% -18.9 3
1944-01-30 Porto L 1-3 1193 1617 10.5% 16.4% 73.1% -35.8 2
1944-01-30 @ Academica de Coimbra W 3-1 1617 1193 73.1% 16.4% 10.5% +35.8 11
1944-01-30 Vitoria Setubal W 5-3 1948 1482 81.6% 16.1% 2.3% +6.9 15
1944-01-30 @ Benfica L 3-5 1482 1948 2.3% 16.1% 81.6% -7.0 7
1944-01-30 Vitoria Guimaraes W 5-1 1936 1247 83.6% 15.8% 0.7% +4.2 12
1944-01-30 @ Olhanense L 1-5 1247 1936 0.7% 15.8% 83.6% -4.2 4
1944-01-30 Atletico Clube de Portugal L 0-3 1237 1821 4.5% 16.2% 79.4% -26.3 3
1944-01-30 @ Salgueiros W 3-0 1821 1237 79.4% 16.2% 4.5% +26.3 15
1944-01-30 Os Belenenses (1st) W 6-1 1908 2002 45.0% 16.5% 38.5% +255.8 16
1944-01-30 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 1-6 2002 1908 38.5% 16.5% 45.0% -255.8 15
1944-02-06 Salgueiros W 6-1 1955 1211 83.9% 15.7% 0.5% +3.8 17
1944-02-06 @ Benfica L 1-6 1211 1955 0.5% 15.7% 83.9% -3.8 3
1944-02-06 Os Belenenses (1st) W 5-0 1941 1746 73.4% 16.4% 10.2% +94.1 14
1944-02-06 @ Olhanense L 0-5 1746 1941 10.2% 16.4% 73.4% -94.1 15
1944-02-06 Vitoria Guimaraes W 7-3 1653 1242 80.7% 16.2% 3.1% +15.8 13
1944-02-06 @ Porto L 3-7 1242 1653 3.1% 16.2% 80.7% -15.8 4
1944-02-06 Academica de Coimbra W 2-0 2163 1157 84.8% 15.1% 0.1% +0.4 18
1944-02-06 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 0-2 1157 2163 0.1% 15.1% 84.8% -0.4 2
1944-02-06 Atletico Clube de Portugal D 4-4 1475 1847 13.8% 16.4% 69.8% +13.1 8
1944-02-06 @ Vitoria Setubal D 4-4 1847 1475 69.8% 16.4% 13.8% -13.1 16
1944-02-13 Benfica L 1-2 1652 1959 19.0% 16.4% 64.6% -35.6 15
1944-02-13 @ Os Belenenses (1st) W 2-1 1959 1652 64.6% 16.4% 19.0% +35.6 19
1944-02-13 Academica de Coimbra W 8-2 2035 1157 84.4% 15.4% 0.2% +1.7 16
1944-02-13 @ Olhanense L 2-8 1157 2035 0.2% 15.4% 84.4% -1.7 2
1944-02-13 Porto L 0-5 1207 1669 8.6% 16.3% 75.0% -80.3 3
1944-02-13 @ Salgueiros W 5-0 1669 1207 75.0% 16.3% 8.6% +80.3 15
1944-02-13 Atletico Clube de Portugal L 1-4 1227 1834 3.9% 16.2% 79.9% -19.5 4
1944-02-13 @ Vitoria Guimaraes W 4-1 1834 1227 79.9% 16.2% 3.9% +19.5 18
1944-02-13 Sporting Clube de Portugal L 2-3 1489 2164 2.7% 16.1% 81.3% -5.2 8
1944-02-13 @ Vitoria Setubal W 3-2 2164 1489 81.3% 16.1% 2.7% +5.2 20
1944-02-20 Salgueiros W 9-4 1155 1127 60.3% 16.5% 23.2% +116.9 4
1944-02-20 @ Academica de Coimbra L 4-9 1127 1155 23.2% 16.5% 60.3% -116.9 3
1944-02-20 Atletico Clube de Portugal L 1-3 1617 1854 26.1% 16.5% 57.4% -82.0 15
1944-02-20 @ Os Belenenses (1st) W 3-1 1854 1617 57.4% 16.5% 26.1% +82.0 20
1944-02-20 Vitoria Setubal W 3-0 1749 1483 76.7% 16.4% 7.0% +40.7 17
1944-02-20 @ Porto L 0-3 1483 1749 7.0% 16.4% 76.7% -40.7 8
1944-02-20 Olhanense W 3-1 2169 2037 69.5% 16.4% 14.1% +47.0 22
1944-02-20 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 1-3 2037 2169 14.1% 16.4% 69.5% -46.9 16
1944-02-20 Benfica D 2-2 1207 1995 1.4% 15.9% 82.7% +27.7 5
1944-02-20 @ Vitoria Guimaraes D 2-2 1995 1207 82.7% 15.9% 1.4% -27.7 20
1944-02-27 Academica de Coimbra W 8-0 1936 1272 83.4% 15.8% 0.8% +11.4 22
1944-02-27 @ Atletico Clube de Portugal L 0-8 1272 1936 0.8% 15.8% 83.4% -11.3 4
1944-02-27 Porto W 6-3 1967 1790 72.4% 16.4% 11.2% +43.0 22
1944-02-27 @ Benfica L 3-6 1790 1967 11.2% 16.4% 72.4% -43.0 17
1944-02-27 Sporting Clube de Portugal L 1-5 1010 2216 0.1% 15.0% 84.9% -0.9 3
1944-02-27 @ Salgueiros W 5-1 2216 1010 84.9% 15.0% 0.1% +0.8 24
1944-02-27 Os Belenenses (1st) L 1-2 1235 1535 19.6% 16.4% 63.9% -36.8 5
1944-02-27 @ Vitoria Guimaraes W 2-1 1535 1235 63.9% 16.4% 19.6% +36.7 17
1944-02-27 Olhanense D 3-3 1443 1990 5.5% 16.2% 78.3% +20.3 9
1944-02-27 @ Vitoria Setubal D 3-3 1990 1443 78.3% 16.2% 5.5% -20.3 17
1944-03-05 Benfica L 1-4 1261 2010 1.8% 15.9% 82.3% -8.9 4
1944-03-05 @ Academica de Coimbra W 4-1 2010 1261 82.3% 15.9% 1.8% +8.9 24
1944-03-05 Sporting Clube de Portugal D 2-2 1947 2217 22.6% 16.4% 61.0% +11.9 23
1944-03-05 @ Atletico Clube de Portugal D 2-2 2217 1947 61.0% 16.4% 22.6% -11.9 25
1944-03-05 Salgueiros W 5-1 1571 1009 82.7% 16.0% 1.3% +8.8 19
1944-03-05 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 1-5 1009 1571 1.3% 16.0% 82.7% -8.8 3
1944-03-05 Olhanense W 3-1 1747 1969 27.9% 16.5% 55.7% +158.4 19
1944-03-05 @ Porto L 1-3 1969 1747 55.7% 16.5% 27.9% -158.4 17
1944-03-05 Vitoria Guimaraes W 8-0 1463 1198 76.6% 16.4% 7.0% +102.8 11
1944-03-05 @ Vitoria Setubal L 0-8 1198 1463 7.0% 16.4% 76.6% -102.8 5
1944-03-12 Vitoria Setubal L 1-2 1580 1566 58.8% 16.5% 24.7% -96.4 19
1944-03-12 @ Os Belenenses (1st) W 2-1 1566 1580 24.7% 16.5% 58.8% +96.4 13
1944-03-12 Atletico Clube de Portugal W 2-1 2019 1959 63.5% 16.5% 20.0% +37.4 26
1944-03-12 @ Benfica L 1-2 1959 2019 20.0% 16.5% 63.5% -37.4 23
1944-03-12 Salgueiros W 5-1 1811 1000 84.1% 15.5% 0.3% +2.1 19
1944-03-12 @ Olhanense L 1-5 1000 1811 0.3% 15.5% 84.1% -2.1 3
1944-03-12 Sporting Clube de Portugal L 1-3 1905 2205 19.7% 16.4% 63.9% -63.7 19
1944-03-12 @ Porto W 3-1 2205 1905 63.9% 16.4% 19.7% +63.7 27
1944-03-12 Academica de Coimbra L 1-5 1095 1252 36.3% 16.5% 47.2% -199.0 5
1944-03-12 @ Vitoria Guimaraes W 5-1 1252 1095 47.2% 16.5% 36.3% +199.0 6
1944-03-19 Vitoria Setubal L 3-9 1451 1662 29.1% 16.5% 54.4% -177.2 6
1944-03-19 @ Academica de Coimbra W 9-3 1662 1451 54.4% 16.5% 29.1% +177.2 15
1944-03-19 Olhanense D 2-2 1922 1813 67.7% 16.4% 15.8% -16.5 24
1944-03-19 @ Atletico Clube de Portugal D 2-2 1813 1922 15.8% 16.4% 67.7% +16.5 20
1944-03-19 Os Belenenses (1st) W 1-0 1842 1484 79.5% 16.3% 4.2% +9.1 21
1944-03-19 @ Porto L 0-1 1484 1842 4.2% 16.3% 79.5% -9.1 19
1944-03-19 Benfica W 1-0 2269 2056 74.3% 16.4% 9.3% +19.5 29
1944-03-19 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 0-1 2056 2269 9.3% 16.4% 74.3% -19.5 26
1944-03-19 Salgueiros W 2-1 896 998 44.0% 16.5% 39.5% +67.6 7
1944-03-19 @ Vitoria Guimaraes L 1-2 998 896 39.5% 16.5% 44.0% -67.6 3
1944-03-26 Porto L 3-4 1905 1851 62.9% 16.5% 20.6% -95.5 24
1944-03-26 @ Atletico Clube de Portugal W 4-3 1851 1905 20.6% 16.5% 62.9% +95.5 23
1944-03-26 Academica de Coimbra W 3-1 1474 1273 73.7% 16.4% 9.9% +33.7 21
1944-03-26 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 1-3 1273 1474 9.9% 16.4% 73.7% -33.7 6
1944-03-26 Benfica W 3-2 1830 2037 29.7% 16.5% 53.8% +84.0 22
1944-03-26 @ Olhanense L 2-3 2037 1830 53.8% 16.5% 29.7% -84.1 26
1944-03-26 Vitoria Setubal L 3-5 931 1839 0.7% 15.7% 83.6% -2.2 3
1944-03-26 @ Salgueiros W 5-3 1839 931 83.6% 15.7% 0.7% +2.2 17
1944-03-26 Sporting Clube de Portugal L 0-2 964 2288 0.1% 14.7% 85.2% -0.3 7
1944-03-26 @ Vitoria Guimaraes W 2-0 2288 964 85.2% 14.7% 0.1% +0.3 31

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1944-01-02 8.07% Vitoria Setubal 1264 5 @ Vitoria Guimaraes 1503 3
2 1944-03-26 20.57% Porto 1851 4 @ Atletico Clube de Portugal 1905 3
3 1944-03-12 24.70% Vitoria Setubal 1566 2 @ Os Belenenses (1st) 1580 1
4 1944-03-05 27.85% @ Porto 1747 3 Olhanense 1969 1
5 1943-12-19 27.97% Sporting Clube de Portugal 1844 2 @ Olhanense 1829 1
6 1944-03-26 29.68% @ Olhanense 1830 3 Benfica 2037 2
7 1943-12-12 32.35% Olhanense 1562 5 @ Academica de Coimbra 1513 1
8 1944-01-16 36.14% @ Benfica 1812 5 Sporting Clube de Portugal 1970 4
9 1944-01-09 37.00% @ Academica de Coimbra 1168 3 Vitoria Guimaraes 1319 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1943-12-12 267.23 Olhanense 5 1562 32.35% @ Academica de Coimbra 1 1513 51.15% 16.50%
2 1944-01-30 255.81 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal 6 1908 45.04% Os Belenenses (1st) 1 2002 38.46% 16.50%
3 1944-03-12 198.98 Academica de Coimbra 5 1252 47.19% @ Vitoria Guimaraes 1 1095 36.32% 16.49%
4 1944-01-02 183.61 Vitoria Setubal 5 1264 8.07% @ Vitoria Guimaraes 3 1503 75.56% 16.37%
5 1943-11-28 180.83 @ Atletico Clube de Portugal 4 1638 57.20% Salgueiros 0 1638 26.30% 16.49%
6 1944-03-19 177.25 Vitoria Setubal 9 1662 54.37% @ Academica de Coimbra 3 1451 29.15% 16.48%
7 1943-12-05 161.08 Benfica 6 1727 60.99% @ Salgueiros 1 1457 22.56% 16.45%
8 1944-03-05 158.40 @ Porto 3 1747 27.85% Olhanense 1 1969 55.68% 16.47%
9 1944-01-16 135.44 @ Olhanense 2 1866 43.88% Atletico Clube de Portugal 0 1968 39.62% 16.50%
10 1944-02-20 116.89 @ Academica de Coimbra 9 1155 60.30% Salgueiros 4 1127 23.21% 16.48%
11 1944-03-05 102.80 @ Vitoria Setubal 8 1463 76.63% Vitoria Guimaraes 0 1198 7.02% 16.35%
12 1944-03-12 96.44 Vitoria Setubal 2 1566 24.70% @ Os Belenenses (1st) 1 1580 58.81% 16.49%
13 1944-03-26 95.55 Porto 4 1851 20.57% @ Atletico Clube de Portugal 3 1905 62.95% 16.48%
14 1944-02-06 94.13 @ Olhanense 5 1941 73.38% Os Belenenses (1st) 0 1746 10.22% 16.41%
15 1943-12-19 91.25 Sporting Clube de Portugal 2 1844 27.97% @ Olhanense 1 1829 55.54% 16.49%
16 1944-01-09 90.43 @ Atletico Clube de Portugal 3 1878 54.29% Benfica 1 1902 29.21% 16.50%
17 1944-03-26 84.05 @ Olhanense 3 1830 29.68% Benfica 2 2037 53.84% 16.48%
18 1944-02-20 82.03 Atletico Clube de Portugal 3 1854 57.40% @ Os Belenenses (1st) 1 1617 26.13% 16.47%
19 1944-02-13 80.27 Porto 5 1669 75.04% @ Salgueiros 0 1207 8.65% 16.31%
20 1944-01-09 73.62 @ Academica de Coimbra 3 1168 37.00% Vitoria Guimaraes 2 1319 46.51% 16.49%
21 1944-01-16 71.98 @ Benfica 5 1812 36.14% Sporting Clube de Portugal 4 1970 47.37% 16.49%
22 1943-12-19 71.63 @ Salgueiros 3 1281 61.11% Academica de Coimbra 1 1245 22.41% 16.48%
23 1944-03-19 67.56 @ Vitoria Guimaraes 2 896 44.00% Salgueiros 1 998 39.50% 16.50%
24 1943-11-28 67.07 @ Vitoria Guimaraes 2 1545 44.33% Olhanense 1 1644 39.17% 16.50%
25 1944-01-23 64.45 @ Benfica 5 1884 41.87% Olhanense 4 2001 41.63% 16.50%