1943-44 Primeira Divisão Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Sporting Clube de Portugal

31 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Sporting Clube de Portugal

5.16 points above expected

31 points · 25.84 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Salgueiros

6.78 points below expected

3 points · 9.78 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Sporting Clube de Portugal	18	14	3	1	31	61	22	+39	25.8	+5.16
2	Benfica	18	11	4	3	26	57	34	+23	23.7	+2.30
3	Atletico Clube de Portugal	18	9	6	3	24	51	28	+23	21.9	+2.06
4	Porto	18	10	3	5	23	46	36	+10	18.0	+5.02
5	Olhanense	18	10	2	6	22	65	34	+31	21.1	+0.87
6	Os Belenenses (1st)	18	9	3	6	21	41	32	+9	23.5	-2.50
7	Vitoria Setubal	18	7	3	8	17	52	50	+2	12.4	+4.58
8	Vitoria Guimaraes	18	2	3	13	7	25	68	-43	12.2	-5.18
9	Academica de Coimbra	18	3	0	15	6	35	68	-33	11.5	-5.53
10	Salgueiros	18	1	1	16	3	23	84	-61	9.8	-6.78

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Sporting Clube de Portugal	2022	31	25.84	+5.16	97.0%	17	20	24	26	28	31	34
Benfica	1870	26	23.70	+2.30	83.0%	15	18	22	23	26	29	31
Olhanense	1841	22	21.13	+0.87	65.0%	13	16	19	21	23	26	30
Atletico Clube de Portugal	1801	24	21.94	+2.06	75.0%	13	17	20	21	24	27	30
Porto	1780	23	17.98	+5.02	91.0%	10	12	16	17	20	24	26
Vitoria Setubal	1679	17	12.42	+4.58	91.0%	5	8	10	12	14	18	22
Os Belenenses (1st)	1635	21	23.50	-2.50	25.0%	12	18	21	23	26	30	32
Academica de Coimbra	1357	6	11.53	-5.53	2.0%	2	7	10	11	14	16	18
Vitoria Guimaraes	1205	7	12.18	-5.18	10.0%	4	6	10	12	14	19	21
Salgueiros	1202	3	9.78	-6.78	2.0%	3	4	7	10	12	15	19

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ADC	ACDP	BEN	OLH	OB(	POR	SAL	SCDP	VG	VS
Academica de Coimbra	—	0-0-2 0.99	0-0-2 0.62	0-0-2 1.94	0-0-2 0.74	0-0-2 1.90	1-0-1 3.04	0-0-2 1.32	2-0-0 3.01	0-0-2 2.37
Atletico Clube de Portugal	2-0-0 4.69	—	1-0-1 2.42	0-1-1 3.02	1-1-0 2.81	0-1-1 3.64	2-0-0 4.14	0-2-0 2.06	2-0-0 4.52	1-1-0 4.58
Benfica	2-0-0 5.07	1-0-1 3.25	—	1-0-1 3.14	1-1-0 3.23	1-1-0 3.79	2-0-0 4.25	1-0-1 2.26	1-1-0 4.93	1-1-0 4.65
Olhanense	2-0-0 3.75	1-1-0 2.65	1-0-1 2.52	—	1-0-1 2.21	1-0-1 3.52	2-0-0 4.79	0-0-2 2.33	1-0-1 3.83	1-1-0 4.84
Os Belenenses (1st)	2-0-0 4.94	0-1-1 2.86	0-1-1 2.44	1-0-1 3.46	—	1-0-1 3.12	2-0-0 4.88	0-1-1 3.23	2-0-0 4.51	1-0-1 4.65
Porto	2-0-0 3.77	1-1-0 2.03	0-1-1 1.88	1-0-1 2.14	1-0-1 2.55	—	2-0-0 4.42	0-0-2 1.52	1-1-0 3.57	2-0-0 4.24
Salgueiros	1-0-1 2.63	0-0-2 1.53	0-0-2 1.43	0-0-2 0.90	0-0-2 0.81	0-0-2 1.25	—	0-0-2 0.52	0-1-1 2.85	0-0-2 1.19
Sporting Clube de Portugal	2-0-0 4.37	0-2-0 3.61	1-0-1 3.40	2-0-0 3.34	1-1-0 2.44	2-0-0 4.16	2-0-0 5.18	—	2-0-0 5.27	2-0-0 4.99
Vitoria Guimaraes	0-0-2 2.66	0-0-2 1.16	0-1-1 0.75	1-0-1 1.85	0-0-2 1.17	0-1-1 2.10	1-1-0 2.82	0-0-2 0.43	—	0-0-2 3.00
Vitoria Setubal	2-0-0 3.30	0-1-1 1.10	0-1-1 1.03	0-1-1 0.84	1-0-1 1.02	0-0-2 1.43	2-0-0 4.49	0-0-2 0.70	2-0-0 2.67	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	1.11%	2.78%	1.11%	1.11%	3.89%	10.00%
1	1.11%	4.44%	5.56%	6.67%	2.22%	6.11%	26.11%
2	2.78%	5.56%	8.89%	3.89%	0.56%	1.11%	22.78%
3	1.11%	6.67%	3.89%	1.11%	1.11%	3.33%	17.22%
4	1.11%	2.22%	0.56%	1.11%	1.11%	1.67%	7.78%
5+	3.89%	6.11%	1.11%	3.33%	1.67%	—	16.11%
Total	10.00%	26.11%	22.78%	17.22%	7.78%	16.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.53
Mean allowed	2.53
StdDev scored	2.00
StdDev allowed	2.00
Mean total goals/game	5.07
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.249
Sample size (games)	90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
1	—	—	11.11%	22.22%	5.56%	5.56%	44.44%
2	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
Total	—	5.56%	27.78%	27.78%	16.67%	22.22%	100%

Academica de Coimbra — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.94
Mean allowed	3.78
StdDev scored	2.18
StdDev allowed	2.32
Mean total goals/game	5.72
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.009
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
2	—	5.56%	22.22%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
4	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	33.33%	38.89%	—	11.11%	—	100%

Atletico Clube de Portugal — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.83
Mean allowed	1.56
StdDev scored	1.72
StdDev allowed	1.15
Mean total goals/game	4.39
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.307
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
2	—	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	16.67%	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	38.89%
Total	—	55.56%	11.11%	22.22%	11.11%	—	100%

Benfica — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.17
Mean allowed	1.89
StdDev scored	2.04
StdDev allowed	1.13
Mean total goals/game	5.06
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.289
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	—	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
5+	11.11%	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	—	38.89%
Total	16.67%	16.67%	38.89%	22.22%	—	5.56%	100%

Olhanense — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.61
Mean allowed	1.89
StdDev scored	2.23
StdDev allowed	1.28
Mean total goals/game	5.50
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.388
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
1	—	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	33.33%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
3	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	5.56%	55.56%	22.22%	5.56%	—	11.11%	100%

Os Belenenses (1st) — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.28
Mean allowed	1.78
StdDev scored	1.71
StdDev allowed	1.52
Mean total goals/game	4.06
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.497
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
2	—	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	38.89%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
Total	16.67%	27.78%	22.22%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Porto — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.56
Mean allowed	2.00
StdDev scored	1.72
StdDev allowed	1.61
Mean total goals/game	4.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.064
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	22.22%
1	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	33.33%	50.00%
2	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	61.11%	100%

Salgueiros — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.28
Mean allowed	4.67
StdDev scored	1.13
StdDev allowed	2.35
Mean total goals/game	5.94
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.015
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
2	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	33.33%
3	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%
5+	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
Total	33.33%	33.33%	22.22%	5.56%	—	5.56%	100%

Sporting Clube de Portugal — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.39
Mean allowed	1.22
StdDev scored	2.23
StdDev allowed	1.31
Mean total goals/game	4.61
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.052
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	16.67%
1	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%	16.67%	38.89%
2	—	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
3	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	11.11%	27.78%	5.56%	16.67%	38.89%	100%

Vitoria Guimaraes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.39
Mean allowed	3.78
StdDev scored	0.92
StdDev allowed	2.05
Mean total goals/game	5.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.234
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
2	5.56%	11.11%	—	16.67%	—	—	33.33%
3	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	—	16.67%	—	—	22.22%
Total	11.11%	16.67%	—	55.56%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Vitoria Setubal — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.89
Mean allowed	2.78
StdDev scored	2.49
StdDev allowed	1.86
Mean total goals/game	5.67
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.233
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Sporting Clube de Portugal	31	25.8	+5.16
2	Porto	23	18.0	+5.02
3	Vitoria Setubal	17	12.4	+4.58
4	Benfica	26	23.7	+2.30
5	Atletico Clube de Portugal	24	21.9	+2.06

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Salgueiros	3	9.8	-6.78
2	Academica de Coimbra	6	11.5	-5.53
3	Vitoria Guimaraes	7	12.2	-5.18
4	Os Belenenses (1st)	21	23.5	-2.50
5	Olhanense	22	21.1	+0.87

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Vitoria Setubal	4	Mar 5 – Mar 26	1 in 34
2	Benfica	5	Jan 16 – Feb 13	1 in 14
3	Sporting Clube de Portugal	6	Jan 23 – Feb 27	1 in 7
4	Olhanense	4	Dec 26 – Jan 16	1 in 6
5	Porto	4	Jan 30 – Feb 20	1 in 5

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Academica de Coimbra	6	Nov 28 – Jan 2	1 in 37
2	Vitoria Guimaraes	5	Dec 12 – Jan 9	1 in 36
3	Salgueiros	10	Jan 23 – Mar 26	1 in 29
4	Os Belenenses (1st)	4	Jan 30 – Feb 20	1 in 26
5	Vitoria Setubal	4	Dec 5 – Dec 26	1 in 4

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Vitoria Setubal	5	Feb 27 – Mar 26	1 in 28
2	Atletico Clube de Portugal	7	Nov 28 – Jan 9	1 in 17
3	Os Belenenses (1st)	9	Nov 28 – Jan 23	1 in 9
4	Porto	5	Nov 28 – Dec 26	1 in 8
5	Benfica	9	Jan 16 – Mar 12	1 in 7

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Vitoria Guimaraes	15	Dec 5 – Mar 12	1 in 85
2	Atletico Clube de Portugal	4	Mar 5 – Mar 26	1 in 17
3	Salgueiros	14	Dec 26 – Mar 26	1 in 12
4	Olhanense	3	Feb 20 – Mar 5	1 in 9
5	Academica de Coimbra	6	Nov 28 – Jan 2	1 in 7

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Sporting Clube de Portugal	47.00%	22.00%	17.00%	9.00%	3.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—	—	—
Benfica	20.00%	22.00%	19.00%	20.00%	14.00%	4.00%	1.00%	—	—	—
Atletico Clube de Portugal	14.00%	14.00%	18.00%	21.00%	22.00%	9.00%	2.00%	—	—	—
Porto	—	5.00%	6.00%	7.00%	11.00%	51.00%	12.00%	5.00%	3.00%	—
Olhanense	7.00%	14.00%	16.00%	25.00%	23.00%	13.00%	2.00%	—	—	—
Os Belenenses (1st)	12.00%	23.00%	24.00%	17.00%	18.00%	4.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—	—
Vitoria Setubal	—	—	—	1.00%	4.00%	7.00%	22.00%	30.00%	25.00%	11.00%
Vitoria Guimaraes	—	—	—	—	3.00%	6.00%	26.00%	26.00%	17.00%	22.00%
Academica de Coimbra	—	—	—	—	1.00%	3.00%	23.00%	23.00%	37.00%	13.00%
Salgueiros	—	—	—	—	1.00%	2.00%	10.00%	15.00%	18.00%	54.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level
Academica de Coimbra	100%
Atletico Clube de Portugal	100%
Benfica	100%
Olhanense	100%
Os Belenenses (1st)	100%
Porto	100%
Salgueiros	100%
Sporting Clube de Portugal	100%
Vitoria Guimaraes	100%
Vitoria Setubal	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1943-11-28	Salgueiros	W 4-0	1631	1631	57.1%	16.6%	26.2%	+66.6	3
1943-11-28	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 0-4	1631	1631	26.2%	16.6%	57.1%	-66.6	0
1943-11-28	Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 1-1	1816	1759	63.1%	16.6%	20.3%	-6.6	1
1943-11-28	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	D 1-1	1759	1816	20.3%	16.6%	63.1%	+6.6	1
1943-11-28	Academica de Coimbra	W 3-2	1608	1598	58.2%	16.6%	25.1%	+16.0	3
1943-11-28	@ Porto	L 2-3	1598	1608	25.1%	16.6%	58.2%	-16.0	0
1943-11-28	Olhanense	W 2-1	1548	1631	46.6%	16.7%	36.8%	+23.5	3
1943-11-28	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-2	1631	1548	36.8%	16.7%	46.6%	-23.5	0
1943-11-28	Benfica	D 1-1	1435	1737	19.5%	16.4%	64.2%	+6.9	1
1943-11-28	@ Vitoria Setubal	D 1-1	1737	1435	64.2%	16.4%	19.5%	-6.9	1
1943-12-05	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 3-4	1582	1766	32.6%	16.6%	50.8%	-19.6	0
1943-12-05	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 4-3	1766	1582	50.8%	16.6%	32.6%	+19.6	4
1943-12-05	Vitoria Setubal	W 3-2	1697	1442	76.5%	16.0%	7.4%	+5.2	6
1943-12-05	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 2-3	1442	1697	7.4%	16.0%	76.5%	-5.2	1
1943-12-05	Olhanense	W 3-2	1809	1607	73.9%	16.2%	9.8%	+6.8	4
1943-12-05	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 2-3	1607	1809	9.8%	16.2%	73.9%	-6.8	0
1943-12-05	Benfica	L 1-6	1564	1730	34.9%	16.6%	48.4%	-87.0	0
1943-12-05	@ Salgueiros	W 6-1	1730	1564	48.4%	16.6%	34.9%	+87.0	4
1943-12-05	Porto	D 2-2	1571	1624	50.7%	16.7%	32.7%	-2.0	4
1943-12-05	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	D 2-2	1624	1571	32.7%	16.7%	50.7%	+2.0	4
1943-12-12	Olhanense	L 1-5	1562	1600	52.5%	16.7%	30.8%	-101.0	0
1943-12-12	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 5-1	1600	1562	30.8%	16.7%	52.5%	+101.0	3
1943-12-12	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 4-1	1702	1569	69.6%	16.4%	14.0%	+24.4	9
1943-12-12	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 1-4	1569	1702	14.0%	16.4%	69.6%	-24.4	4
1943-12-12	Os Belenenses (1st)	D 1-1	1817	1816	57.3%	16.6%	26.1%	-4.7	5
1943-12-12	@ Benfica	D 1-1	1816	1817	26.1%	16.6%	57.3%	+4.7	5
1943-12-12	Salgueiros	W 3-1	1626	1477	70.7%	16.4%	13.0%	+16.0	7
1943-12-12	@ Porto	L 1-3	1477	1626	13.0%	16.4%	70.7%	-16.0	0
1943-12-12	Vitoria Setubal	W 3-2	1786	1437	79.8%	15.7%	4.5%	+3.2	7
1943-12-12	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 2-3	1437	1786	4.5%	15.7%	79.8%	-3.2	1
1943-12-19	Os Belenenses (1st)	D 2-2	1727	1821	45.1%	16.7%	38.3%	-0.7	10
1943-12-19	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	D 2-2	1821	1727	38.3%	16.7%	45.1%	+0.7	6
1943-12-19	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 5-1	1812	1545	77.0%	16.0%	7.0%	+16.2	8
1943-12-19	@ Benfica	L 1-5	1545	1812	7.0%	16.0%	77.0%	-16.2	4
1943-12-19	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-2	1701	1789	46.0%	16.7%	37.4%	-28.3	3
1943-12-19	@ Olhanense	W 2-1	1789	1701	37.4%	16.7%	46.0%	+28.3	10
1943-12-19	Academica de Coimbra	W 3-1	1461	1461	57.1%	16.6%	26.3%	+30.4	3
1943-12-19	@ Salgueiros	L 1-3	1461	1461	26.3%	16.6%	57.1%	-30.4	0
1943-12-19	Porto	L 1-3	1434	1642	29.5%	16.6%	53.9%	-33.7	1
1943-12-19	@ Vitoria Setubal	W 3-1	1642	1434	53.9%	16.6%	29.5%	+33.7	10
1943-12-26	Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 1-2	1431	1726	20.1%	16.4%	63.5%	-13.8	0
1943-12-26	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 2-1	1726	1431	63.5%	16.4%	20.1%	+13.8	13
1943-12-26	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 4-1	1821	1529	78.0%	15.9%	6.1%	+11.0	9
1943-12-26	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-4	1529	1821	6.1%	15.9%	78.0%	-11.0	4
1943-12-26	Vitoria Setubal	W 8-0	1673	1400	77.2%	16.0%	6.8%	+36.3	6
1943-12-26	@ Olhanense	L 0-8	1400	1673	6.8%	16.0%	77.2%	-36.3	1
1943-12-26	Benfica	D 2-2	1675	1829	36.7%	16.6%	46.7%	+1.1	11
1943-12-26	@ Porto	D 2-2	1829	1675	46.7%	16.6%	36.7%	-1.1	9
1943-12-26	Salgueiros	W 10-0	1817	1491	79.1%	15.8%	5.1%	+34.1	13
1943-12-26	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-10	1491	1817	5.1%	15.8%	79.1%	-34.1	3
1944-01-02	Academica de Coimbra	W 2-1	1828	1417	81.4%	15.3%	3.2%	+2.4	12
1944-01-02	@ Benfica	L 1-2	1417	1828	3.2%	15.3%	81.4%	-2.4	0
1944-01-02	Porto	W 4-2	1709	1676	60.7%	16.6%	22.7%	+23.9	9
1944-01-02	@ Olhanense	L 2-4	1676	1709	22.7%	16.6%	60.7%	-23.9	11
1944-01-02	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-6	1457	1832	13.6%	16.2%	70.2%	-37.4	3
1944-01-02	@ Salgueiros	W 6-1	1832	1457	70.2%	16.2%	13.6%	+37.4	12
1944-01-02	Atletico Clube de Portugal	D 2-2	1851	1740	67.9%	16.5%	15.6%	-6.2	14
1944-01-02	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 2-2	1740	1851	15.6%	16.5%	67.9%	+6.1	14
1944-01-02	Vitoria Setubal	L 3-5	1518	1364	71.0%	16.4%	12.6%	-63.1	4
1944-01-02	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	W 5-3	1364	1518	12.6%	16.4%	71.0%	+63.1	4
1944-01-09	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 3-2	1415	1454	52.3%	16.7%	31.1%	+19.3	3
1944-01-09	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 2-3	1454	1415	31.1%	16.7%	52.3%	-19.3	4
1944-01-09	Benfica	W 3-1	1746	1830	46.5%	16.7%	36.9%	+40.8	17
1944-01-09	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 1-3	1830	1746	36.9%	16.7%	46.5%	-40.8	12
1944-01-09	Olhanense	L 2-5	1420	1733	18.4%	16.4%	65.2%	-27.1	3
1944-01-09	@ Salgueiros	W 5-2	1733	1420	65.2%	16.4%	18.4%	+27.1	12
1944-01-09	Porto	W 2-0	1845	1652	73.4%	16.2%	10.4%	+15.0	17
1944-01-09	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-2	1652	1845	10.4%	16.2%	73.4%	-15.0	11
1944-01-09	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-3	1427	1870	9.6%	15.9%	74.4%	-12.0	4
1944-01-09	@ Vitoria Setubal	W 3-1	1870	1427	74.4%	15.9%	9.6%	+12.0	15
1944-01-16	Porto	W 4-0	1882	1638	76.0%	16.1%	7.9%	+21.9	18
1944-01-16	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-4	1638	1882	7.9%	16.1%	76.0%	-21.9	11
1944-01-16	Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 5-4	1789	1860	48.2%	16.7%	35.1%	+20.6	15
1944-01-16	@ Benfica	L 4-5	1860	1789	35.1%	16.7%	48.2%	-20.6	17
1944-01-16	Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 2-0	1760	1787	54.0%	16.7%	29.4%	+38.8	15
1944-01-16	@ Olhanense	L 0-2	1787	1760	29.4%	16.7%	54.0%	-38.8	17
1944-01-16	Vitoria Guimaraes	D 2-2	1393	1435	52.0%	16.7%	31.4%	-2.3	4
1944-01-16	@ Salgueiros	D 2-2	1435	1393	31.4%	16.7%	52.0%	+2.3	5
1944-01-16	Academica de Coimbra	W 2-0	1415	1434	54.9%	16.6%	28.5%	+37.7	7
1944-01-16	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 0-2	1434	1415	28.5%	16.6%	54.9%	-37.7	3
1944-01-23	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-3	1396	1904	6.9%	15.6%	77.5%	-8.6	3
1944-01-23	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 3-1	1904	1396	77.5%	15.6%	6.9%	+8.7	21
1944-01-23	Olhanense	W 5-4	1810	1799	58.3%	16.6%	25.0%	+15.4	18
1944-01-23	@ Benfica	L 4-5	1799	1810	25.0%	16.6%	58.3%	-15.4	15
1944-01-23	Atletico Clube de Portugal	D 1-1	1616	1748	39.6%	16.7%	43.8%	+0.6	12
1944-01-23	@ Porto	D 1-1	1748	1616	43.8%	16.7%	39.6%	-0.6	18
1944-01-23	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 6-0	1839	1437	81.2%	15.4%	3.4%	+13.9	20
1944-01-23	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-6	1437	1839	3.4%	15.4%	81.2%	-13.8	5
1944-01-23	Salgueiros	W 2-1	1452	1391	63.6%	16.6%	19.8%	+13.7	10
1944-01-23	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 1-2	1391	1452	19.8%	16.6%	63.6%	-13.7	4
1944-01-30	Porto	L 1-3	1387	1616	27.1%	16.5%	56.4%	-31.2	3
1944-01-30	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 3-1	1616	1387	56.4%	16.5%	27.1%	+31.2	15
1944-01-30	Vitoria Setubal	W 5-3	1825	1466	80.1%	15.6%	4.3%	+4.6	21
1944-01-30	@ Benfica	L 3-5	1466	1825	4.3%	15.6%	80.1%	-4.6	10
1944-01-30	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 5-1	1784	1424	80.2%	15.6%	4.2%	+9.9	18
1944-01-30	@ Olhanense	L 1-5	1424	1784	4.2%	15.6%	80.2%	-9.9	5
1944-01-30	Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 0-3	1377	1747	14.0%	16.2%	69.9%	-28.7	4
1944-01-30	@ Salgueiros	W 3-0	1747	1377	69.9%	16.2%	14.0%	+28.7	21
1944-01-30	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 6-1	1853	1912	49.8%	16.7%	33.6%	+84.1	23
1944-01-30	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-6	1912	1853	33.6%	16.7%	49.8%	-84.1	21
1944-02-06	Salgueiros	W 6-1	1830	1348	82.8%	15.0%	2.2%	+6.2	24
1944-02-06	@ Benfica	L 1-6	1348	1830	2.2%	15.0%	82.8%	-6.2	4
1944-02-06	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 5-0	1794	1828	52.9%	16.7%	30.4%	+93.3	21
1944-02-06	@ Olhanense	L 0-5	1828	1794	30.4%	16.7%	52.9%	-93.3	21
1944-02-06	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 7-3	1647	1414	75.5%	16.1%	8.3%	+14.9	18
1944-02-06	@ Porto	L 3-7	1414	1647	8.3%	16.1%	75.5%	-14.9	5
1944-02-06	Academica de Coimbra	W 2-0	1937	1356	84.4%	14.3%	1.3%	+1.8	26
1944-02-06	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-2	1356	1937	1.3%	14.3%	84.4%	-1.8	3
1944-02-06	Atletico Clube de Portugal	D 4-4	1461	1776	18.3%	16.4%	65.3%	+4.0	11
1944-02-06	@ Vitoria Setubal	D 4-4	1776	1461	65.3%	16.4%	18.3%	-4.0	22
1944-02-13	Benfica	L 1-2	1735	1836	44.1%	16.7%	39.3%	-27.3	21
1944-02-13	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	W 2-1	1836	1735	39.3%	16.7%	44.1%	+27.3	27
1944-02-13	Academica de Coimbra	W 8-2	1887	1354	83.7%	14.7%	1.7%	+4.6	24
1944-02-13	@ Olhanense	L 2-8	1354	1887	1.7%	14.7%	83.7%	-4.6	3
1944-02-13	Porto	L 0-5	1342	1662	17.8%	16.3%	65.8%	-57.9	4
1944-02-13	@ Salgueiros	W 5-0	1662	1342	65.8%	16.3%	17.8%	+57.9	21
1944-02-13	Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 1-4	1399	1772	13.8%	16.2%	70.1%	-23.9	5
1944-02-13	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	W 4-1	1772	1399	70.1%	16.2%	13.8%	+23.9	25
1944-02-13	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 2-3	1465	1939	8.2%	15.8%	76.0%	-5.7	11
1944-02-13	@ Vitoria Setubal	W 3-2	1939	1465	76.0%	15.8%	8.2%	+5.6	29
1944-02-20	Salgueiros	W 9-4	1350	1284	64.0%	16.6%	19.5%	+36.8	6
1944-02-20	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 4-9	1284	1350	19.5%	16.6%	64.0%	-36.8	4
1944-02-20	Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 1-3	1708	1796	45.8%	16.7%	37.5%	-49.0	21
1944-02-20	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	W 3-1	1796	1708	37.5%	16.7%	45.8%	+49.0	28
1944-02-20	Vitoria Setubal	W 3-0	1720	1460	76.7%	16.0%	7.2%	+15.4	24
1944-02-20	@ Porto	L 0-3	1460	1720	7.2%	16.0%	76.7%	-15.4	11
1944-02-20	Olhanense	W 3-1	1945	1892	62.8%	16.6%	20.6%	+24.6	32
1944-02-20	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-3	1892	1945	20.6%	16.6%	62.8%	-24.6	24
1944-02-20	Benfica	D 2-2	1375	1863	7.6%	15.7%	76.7%	+8.4	6
1944-02-20	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	D 2-2	1863	1375	76.7%	15.7%	7.6%	-8.4	28
1944-02-27	Academica de Coimbra	W 8-0	1845	1387	82.4%	15.1%	2.5%	+13.3	31
1944-02-27	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 0-8	1387	1845	2.5%	15.1%	82.4%	-13.3	6
1944-02-27	Porto	W 6-3	1855	1736	68.5%	16.4%	15.0%	+20.8	31
1944-02-27	@ Benfica	L 3-6	1736	1855	15.0%	16.4%	68.5%	-20.9	24
1944-02-27	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-5	1247	1969	2.1%	14.4%	83.4%	-4.9	4
1944-02-27	@ Salgueiros	W 5-1	1969	1247	83.4%	14.4%	2.1%	+4.9	35
1944-02-27	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-2	1383	1659	22.0%	16.4%	61.5%	-15.0	6
1944-02-27	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	W 2-1	1659	1383	61.5%	16.4%	22.0%	+15.0	24
1944-02-27	Olhanense	D 3-3	1444	1867	10.7%	16.0%	73.3%	+6.2	12
1944-02-27	@ Vitoria Setubal	D 3-3	1867	1444	73.3%	16.0%	10.7%	-6.2	25
1944-03-05	Benfica	L 1-4	1373	1876	7.1%	15.7%	77.3%	-12.6	6
1944-03-05	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 4-1	1876	1373	77.3%	15.7%	7.1%	+12.6	34
1944-03-05	Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 2-2	1858	1974	41.9%	16.7%	41.4%	-0.0	32
1944-03-05	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	D 2-2	1974	1858	41.4%	16.7%	41.9%	+0.0	36
1944-03-05	Salgueiros	W 5-1	1674	1242	81.9%	15.2%	2.9%	+6.7	27
1944-03-05	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-5	1242	1674	2.9%	15.2%	81.9%	-6.7	4
1944-03-05	Olhanense	W 3-1	1715	1861	37.7%	16.6%	45.6%	+48.8	27
1944-03-05	@ Porto	L 1-3	1861	1715	45.6%	16.6%	37.7%	-48.8	25
1944-03-05	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 8-0	1451	1368	65.5%	16.5%	18.0%	+91.5	15
1944-03-05	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 0-8	1368	1451	18.0%	16.5%	65.5%	-91.5	6
1944-03-12	Vitoria Setubal	L 1-2	1680	1542	69.9%	16.4%	13.7%	-42.4	27
1944-03-12	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	W 2-1	1542	1680	13.7%	16.4%	69.9%	+42.4	18
1944-03-12	Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 2-1	1888	1858	60.4%	16.6%	23.0%	+15.6	37
1944-03-12	@ Benfica	L 1-2	1858	1888	23.0%	16.6%	60.4%	-15.6	32
1944-03-12	Salgueiros	W 5-1	1812	1236	84.3%	14.4%	1.3%	+3.0	28
1944-03-12	@ Olhanense	L 1-5	1236	1812	1.3%	14.4%	84.3%	-3.0	4
1944-03-12	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-3	1764	1974	29.2%	16.6%	54.2%	-33.4	27
1944-03-12	@ Porto	W 3-1	1974	1764	54.2%	16.6%	29.2%	+33.4	39
1944-03-12	Academica de Coimbra	L 1-5	1277	1361	46.5%	16.7%	36.9%	-90.5	6
1944-03-12	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	W 5-1	1361	1277	36.9%	16.7%	46.5%	+90.5	9
1944-03-19	Vitoria Setubal	L 3-9	1451	1585	39.5%	16.7%	43.9%	-84.7	9
1944-03-19	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 9-3	1585	1451	43.9%	16.7%	39.5%	+84.7	21
1944-03-19	Olhanense	D 2-2	1843	1815	60.2%	16.6%	23.2%	-4.2	33
1944-03-19	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	D 2-2	1815	1843	23.2%	16.6%	60.2%	+4.2	29
1944-03-19	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 1-0	1730	1638	66.4%	16.5%	17.1%	+12.7	30
1944-03-19	@ Porto	L 0-1	1638	1730	17.1%	16.5%	66.4%	-12.7	27
1944-03-19	Benfica	W 1-0	2008	1904	67.3%	16.5%	16.2%	+12.1	42
1944-03-19	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-1	1904	2008	16.2%	16.5%	67.3%	-12.1	37
1944-03-19	Salgueiros	W 2-1	1186	1233	51.5%	16.7%	31.9%	+20.8	9
1944-03-19	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-2	1233	1186	31.9%	16.7%	51.5%	-20.8	4
1944-03-26	Porto	L 3-4	1838	1743	66.6%	16.5%	16.9%	-37.3	33
1944-03-26	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 4-3	1743	1838	16.9%	16.5%	66.6%	+37.3	33
1944-03-26	Academica de Coimbra	W 3-1	1625	1366	76.7%	16.0%	7.3%	+9.3	30
1944-03-26	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-3	1366	1625	7.3%	16.0%	76.7%	-9.3	9
1944-03-26	Benfica	W 3-2	1819	1892	48.0%	16.7%	35.4%	+21.6	32
1944-03-26	@ Olhanense	L 2-3	1892	1819	35.4%	16.7%	48.0%	-21.5	37
1944-03-26	Vitoria Setubal	L 3-5	1212	1669	8.9%	15.9%	75.2%	-9.5	4
1944-03-26	@ Salgueiros	W 5-3	1669	1212	75.2%	15.9%	8.9%	+9.5	24
1944-03-26	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-2	1207	2020	1.3%	13.9%	84.8%	-1.9	9
1944-03-26	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	W 2-0	2020	1207	84.8%	13.9%	1.3%	+1.9	45

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1944-01-02	12.62%	Vitoria Setubal	1364	5	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	1518	3
2	1944-03-12	13.66%	Vitoria Setubal	1542	2	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	1680	1
3	1944-03-26	16.88%	Porto	1743	4	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	1838	3
4	1943-12-12	30.83%	Olhanense	1600	5	@ Academica de Coimbra	1562	1
5	1944-03-12	36.88%	Academica de Coimbra	1361	5	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	1277	1
6	1943-12-19	37.37%	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1789	2	@ Olhanense	1701	1
7	1944-02-20	37.50%	Atletico Clube de Portugal	1796	3	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	1708	1
8	1944-03-05	37.71%	@ Porto	1715	3	Olhanense	1861	1
9	1944-02-13	39.27%	Benfica	1836	2	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	1735	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1943-12-12	101.03	Olhanense	5	1600	30.83%	@ Academica de Coimbra	1	1562	52.52%
2	1944-02-06	93.34	@ Olhanense	5	1794	52.94%	Os Belenenses (1st)	0	1828	30.40%
3	1944-03-05	91.47	@ Vitoria Setubal	8	1451	65.49%	Vitoria Guimaraes	0	1368	17.99%
4	1944-03-12	90.47	Academica de Coimbra	5	1361	36.88%	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	1	1277	46.45%
5	1943-12-05	87.04	Benfica	6	1730	48.43%	@ Salgueiros	1	1564	34.95%
6	1944-03-19	84.73	Vitoria Setubal	9	1585	43.89%	@ Academica de Coimbra	3	1451	39.46%
7	1944-01-30	84.12	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	6	1853	49.79%	Os Belenenses (1st)	1	1912	33.55%
8	1943-11-28	66.63	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	4	1631	57.13%	Salgueiros	0	1631	26.24%
9	1944-01-02	63.13	Vitoria Setubal	5	1364	12.62%	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	3	1518	71.03%
10	1944-02-13	57.94	Porto	5	1662	65.83%	@ Salgueiros	0	1342	17.84%
11	1944-02-20	48.98	Atletico Clube de Portugal	3	1796	37.50%	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	1	1708	45.83%
12	1944-03-05	48.79	@ Porto	3	1715	37.71%	Olhanense	1	1861	45.65%
13	1944-03-12	42.43	Vitoria Setubal	2	1542	13.66%	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	1	1680	69.94%
14	1944-01-09	40.77	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	3	1746	46.46%	Benfica	1	1830	36.88%
15	1944-01-16	38.76	@ Olhanense	2	1760	53.97%	Atletico Clube de Portugal	0	1787	29.38%
16	1944-01-16	37.73	@ Vitoria Setubal	2	1415	54.87%	Academica de Coimbra	0	1434	28.49%
17	1944-01-02	37.41	Os Belenenses (1st)	6	1832	70.19%	@ Salgueiros	1	1457	13.64%
18	1944-03-26	37.34	Porto	4	1743	16.88%	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	3	1838	66.62%
19	1944-02-20	36.84	@ Academica de Coimbra	9	1350	63.99%	Salgueiros	4	1284	19.46%
20	1943-12-26	36.31	@ Olhanense	8	1673	77.25%	Vitoria Setubal	0	1400	6.78%
21	1943-12-26	34.08	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	10	1817	79.13%	Salgueiros	0	1491	5.11%
22	1943-12-19	33.68	Porto	3	1642	53.89%	@ Vitoria Setubal	1	1434	29.54%
23	1944-03-12	33.37	Sporting Clube de Portugal	3	1974	54.21%	@ Porto	1	1764	29.22%
24	1944-01-30	31.21	Porto	3	1616	56.40%	@ Academica de Coimbra	1	1387	27.07%
25	1943-12-19	30.44	@ Salgueiros	3	1461	57.11%	Academica de Coimbra	1	1461	26.26%