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2009-10 Liga de Honra Season

240 games

Final

Promoted

—

No promotions.

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Portimonense

10.86 points above expected

54 points · 43.14 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Carregado

15.07 points below expected

24 points · 39.07 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Beira-Mar 30 16 6 8 54 44 30 +14 43.79 +10.21
2 Portimonense 30 16 6 8 54 43 34 +9 43.14 +10.86
3 Feirense 30 14 10 6 52 37 24 +13 44.99 +7.01
4 Santa Clara 30 13 12 5 51 45 29 +16 48.40 +2.60
5 Oliveirense 30 14 7 9 49 38 27 +11 43.40 +5.60
6 Trofense 30 13 6 11 45 44 45 -1 43.22 +1.78
7 Penafiel 30 10 11 9 41 35 34 +1 35.87 +5.13
8 Gil Vicente 30 9 11 10 38 36 32 +4 41.36 -3.36
9 Aves 30 9 11 10 38 33 33 0 38.55 -0.55
10 Fatima 30 8 14 8 38 31 31 0 35.95 +2.05
11 Estoril 30 7 14 9 35 26 29 -3 41.82 -6.82
12 Freamunde 30 9 8 13 35 43 50 -7 38.84 -3.84
13 Varzim 30 6 13 11 31 25 38 -13 32.88 -1.88
14 Sporting Covilha 30 7 9 14 30 35 49 -14 36.32 -6.32
15 Chaves 30 6 10 14 28 28 37 -9 42.40 -14.40
16 Carregado 30 6 6 18 24 26 47 -21 39.07 -15.07

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Santa Clara 1669 51 48.40 +2.60 67.4% 21 37 44 48 53 60 73
Beira-Mar 1646 54 43.79 +10.21 93.8% 20 33 39 44 48 55 70
Feirense 1646 52 44.99 +7.01 85.9% 20 33 40 45 50 57 69
Portimonense 1622 54 43.14 +10.86 95.1% 20 32 38 43 48 54 68
Oliveirense 1621 49 43.40 +5.60 80.7% 19 32 39 43 48 55 68
Trofense 1593 45 43.22 +1.78 63.1% 20 32 39 43 48 55 69
Penafiel 1586 41 35.87 +5.13 79.5% 13 25 31 36 40 47 63
Gil Vicente 1580 38 41.36 -3.36 34.3% 18 30 37 41 46 52 70
Estoril 1561 35 41.82 -6.82 17.3% 14 31 37 42 46 53 69
Fatima 1549 38 35.95 +2.05 64.8% 13 25 31 36 41 47 63
Aves 1548 38 38.55 -0.55 49.7% 13 28 34 39 43 50 65
Freamunde 1519 35 38.84 -3.84 32.0% 15 28 34 39 43 50 70
Chaves 1503 28 42.40 -14.40 2.0% 13 31 38 42 47 54 70
Sporting Covilha 1492 30 36.32 -6.32 19.3% 13 25 32 36 41 48 62
Carregado 1484 24 39.07 -15.07 1.3% 15 28 35 39 44 50 64
Varzim 1479 31 32.88 -1.88 42.4% 11 22 28 33 37 44 56

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AVE BEI CAR CHA EST FAT FEI FRE GV OLI PEN POR SC SC TRO VAR
Aves —
0-0-2
2.38
1-1-0
2.71
1-1-0
2.24
0-0-2
2.64
0-0-2
3.05
0-1-1
2.42
0-1-1
2.59
1-1-0
2.42
1-0-1
2.48
1-1-0
2.87
0-2-0
2.51
0-1-1
1.99
2-0-0
2.81
1-1-0
2.25
1-1-0
3.23
Beira-Mar
2-0-0
3.03
 —
2-0-0
3.45
1-1-0
2.69
1-0-1
2.91
1-0-1
3.20
2-0-0
2.56
1-0-1
3.05
1-1-0
2.97
1-0-1
2.65
1-0-1
3.20
1-0-1
2.61
0-2-0
2.32
0-1-1
2.96
1-0-1
2.89
1-1-0
3.31
Carregado
0-1-1
2.74
0-0-2
2.00
 —
0-0-2
2.46
0-1-1
2.37
1-1-0
2.90
0-0-2
2.12
1-0-1
2.60
2-0-0
2.65
1-0-1
2.42
0-1-1
3.26
0-0-2
2.51
0-0-2
2.49
0-1-1
2.83
0-0-2
2.65
1-1-0
2.99
Chaves
0-1-1
3.18
0-1-1
2.71
2-0-0
2.95
 —
0-2-0
2.79
0-1-1
2.86
0-0-2
2.95
0-1-1
3.01
1-1-0
2.45
1-1-0
2.52
1-0-1
2.84
0-1-1
2.78
0-0-2
2.25
1-0-1
3.18
0-1-1
2.50
0-0-2
3.40
Estoril
2-0-0
2.76
1-0-1
2.50
1-1-0
3.06
0-2-0
2.62
 —
0-1-1
3.04
0-1-1
2.40
1-1-0
2.78
1-0-1
2.67
0-1-1
2.71
0-1-1
3.08
0-0-2
2.82
0-2-0
2.37
1-0-1
2.99
0-2-0
2.72
0-2-0
3.28
Fatima
2-0-0
2.37
1-0-1
2.23
0-1-1
2.51
1-1-0
2.54
1-1-0
2.38
 —
1-1-0
2.11
0-2-0
2.36
0-2-0
2.27
0-1-1
2.19
0-1-1
2.63
0-1-1
2.32
0-0-2
2.13
1-1-0
2.72
1-0-1
2.00
0-2-0
3.15
Feirense
1-1-0
2.99
0-0-2
2.84
2-0-0
3.29
2-0-0
2.46
1-1-0
3.00
0-1-1
3.31
 —
1-1-0
3.17
0-1-1
3.06
1-1-0
2.73
0-2-0
3.36
1-0-1
2.85
1-1-0
2.62
1-1-0
3.44
2-0-0
2.52
1-0-1
3.39
Freamunde
1-1-0
2.82
1-0-1
2.38
1-0-1
2.80
1-1-0
2.40
0-1-1
2.63
0-2-0
3.06
0-1-1
2.25
 —
1-1-0
2.43
0-0-2
2.53
1-0-1
2.77
0-0-2
2.49
0-0-2
1.88
2-0-0
2.76
0-0-2
2.51
1-1-0
3.10
Gil Vicente
0-1-1
2.99
0-1-1
2.43
0-0-2
2.79
0-1-1
2.96
1-0-1
2.76
0-2-0
3.16
1-1-0
2.35
0-1-1
2.98
 —
1-1-0
2.43
1-1-0
3.24
1-0-1
2.69
0-2-0
2.01
2-0-0
2.91
2-0-0
2.34
0-0-2
3.27
Oliveirense
1-0-1
2.93
1-0-1
2.75
1-0-1
3.00
0-1-1
2.88
1-1-0
2.69
1-1-0
3.22
0-1-1
2.67
2-0-0
2.87
0-1-1
2.97
 —
2-0-0
3.03
0-0-2
2.76
2-0-0
2.42
1-1-0
3.31
1-0-1
2.86
1-1-0
3.08
Penafiel
0-1-1
2.54
1-0-1
2.22
1-1-0
2.15
1-0-1
2.57
1-1-0
2.35
1-1-0
2.77
0-2-0
2.07
1-0-1
2.63
0-1-1
2.17
0-0-2
2.38
 —
2-0-0
2.12
1-1-0
1.92
1-0-1
2.62
0-1-1
2.26
0-2-0
3.04
Portimonense
0-2-0
2.90
1-0-1
2.80
2-0-0
2.92
1-1-0
2.63
2-0-0
2.60
1-1-0
3.10
1-0-1
2.55
2-0-0
2.92
1-0-1
2.71
2-0-0
2.65
0-0-2
3.31
 —
0-1-1
2.52
1-0-1
3.33
1-0-1
2.74
1-1-0
3.50
Santa Clara
1-1-0
3.44
0-2-0
3.09
2-0-0
2.98
2-0-0
3.16
0-2-0
3.04
2-0-0
3.29
0-1-1
2.78
2-0-0
3.56
0-2-0
3.42
0-0-2
3.00
0-1-1
3.54
1-1-0
2.89
 —
0-2-0
3.65
1-0-1
3.17
2-0-0
3.48
Sporting Covilha
0-0-2
2.61
1-1-0
2.44
1-1-0
2.60
1-0-1
2.24
1-0-1
2.43
0-1-1
2.68
0-1-1
1.99
0-0-2
2.66
0-0-2
2.49
0-1-1
2.13
1-0-1
2.78
1-0-1
2.10
0-2-0
1.81
 —
1-1-0
2.42
0-1-1
2.98
Trofense
0-1-1
3.18
1-0-1
2.52
2-0-0
2.75
1-1-0
2.91
0-2-0
2.68
1-0-1
3.42
0-0-2
2.88
2-0-0
2.91
0-0-2
3.07
1-0-1
2.56
1-1-0
3.17
1-0-1
2.69
1-0-1
2.23
0-1-1
3.00
 —
2-0-0
3.19
Varzim
0-1-1
2.19
0-1-1
2.13
0-1-1
2.41
2-0-0
2.03
0-2-0
2.14
0-2-0
2.26
1-0-1
2.03
0-1-1
2.32
2-0-0
2.17
0-1-1
2.34
0-2-0
2.36
0-1-1
1.95
0-0-2
1.96
1-1-0
2.43
0-0-2
2.23
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.59 +10.6
Allowed 0.37 -7.3
Differential 0.89 +8.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.58%9.79%4.38%3.75%0.62%—28.12%
19.79%17.08%8.33%3.54%0.21%—38.96%
24.38%8.33%5.00%2.71%0.21%0.42%21.04%
33.75%3.54%2.71%0.42%——10.42%
40.62%0.21%0.21%———1.04%
5+——0.42%———0.42%
Total28.12%38.96%21.04%10.42%1.04%0.42%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.19 +0.00
SD 1.02 1.02 1.43
CV 0.86 0.86 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 240

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%16.67%3.33%———33.33%
16.67%13.33%3.33%6.67%——30.00%
26.67%10.00%10.00%3.33%——30.00%
33.33%—3.33%———6.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total30.00%40.00%20.00%10.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.10 1.10 +0.00
SD 0.96 0.96 1.20
CV 0.87 0.87 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.67%3.33%———10.00%
113.33%16.67%13.33%3.33%——46.67%
213.33%13.33%3.33%———30.00%
33.33%6.67%3.33%———13.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total30.00%43.33%23.33%3.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.00 +0.47
SD 0.86 0.83 1.31
CV 0.59 0.83 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%20.00%6.67%13.33%——43.33%
16.67%16.67%13.33%3.33%——40.00%
2—3.33%—3.33%——6.67%
3——6.67%———6.67%
4—3.33%————3.33%
5+———————
Total10.00%43.33%26.67%20.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.87 1.57 -0.70
SD 1.04 0.94 1.42
CV 1.20 0.60 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%20.00%10.00%6.67%——43.33%
1—20.00%10.00%———30.00%
26.67%3.33%6.67%———16.67%
33.33%6.67%————10.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%50.00%26.67%6.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.93 1.23 -0.30
SD 1.01 0.82 1.47
CV 1.09 0.66 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%10.00%3.33%———30.00%
110.00%26.67%6.67%10.00%——53.33%
210.00%3.33%3.33%———16.67%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total36.67%40.00%13.33%10.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.87 0.97 -0.10
SD 0.68 0.96 1.12
CV 0.79 1.00 —
Max 2 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%13.33%————23.33%
120.00%26.67%10.00%———56.67%
2—3.33%6.67%——3.33%13.33%
33.33%——3.33%——6.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%43.33%16.67%3.33%—3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.03 +0.00
SD 0.81 1.10 1.05
CV 0.78 1.06 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%13.33%3.33%———20.00%
116.67%30.00%3.33%———50.00%
23.33%16.67%————20.00%
33.33%—3.33%———6.67%
43.33%—————3.33%
5+———————
Total30.00%60.00%10.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 0.80 +0.43
SD 0.97 0.61 1.22
CV 0.79 0.76 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%3.33%3.33%3.33%3.33%—20.00%
1—16.67%16.67%3.33%——36.67%
23.33%6.67%3.33%10.00%——23.33%
33.33%3.33%13.33%———20.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total13.33%30.00%36.67%16.67%3.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.67 -0.23
SD 1.04 1.03 1.48
CV 0.73 0.62 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%6.67%10.00%3.33%——33.33%
16.67%20.00%10.00%———36.67%
23.33%3.33%3.33%3.33%——13.33%
36.67%3.33%————10.00%
43.33%—3.33%———6.67%
5+———————
Total33.33%33.33%26.67%6.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.20 1.07 +0.13
SD 1.21 0.94 1.61
CV 1.01 0.89 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%13.33%————26.67%
110.00%10.00%6.67%6.67%3.33%—36.67%
26.67%13.33%————20.00%
310.00%6.67%————16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total40.00%43.33%6.67%6.67%3.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 0.90 +0.37
SD 1.05 1.03 1.54
CV 0.83 1.14 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%3.33%13.33%———30.00%
113.33%13.33%3.33%3.33%——33.33%
23.33%6.67%10.00%6.67%——26.67%
33.33%6.67%————10.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%30.00%26.67%10.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.13 +0.03
SD 0.99 1.01 1.33
CV 0.84 0.89 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%3.33%3.33%6.67%——20.00%
116.67%10.00%3.33%10.00%——40.00%
26.67%10.00%————16.67%
36.67%10.00%3.33%3.33%——23.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total36.67%33.33%10.00%20.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.13 +0.30
SD 1.07 1.14 1.66
CV 0.75 1.00 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%6.67%————23.33%
16.67%16.67%6.67%———30.00%
23.33%13.33%6.67%——3.33%26.67%
310.00%3.33%3.33%———16.67%
4———————
5+——3.33%———3.33%
Total36.67%40.00%20.00%——3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 0.97 +0.53
SD 1.22 1.07 1.38
CV 0.82 1.10 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%10.00%3.33%13.33%——30.00%
16.67%13.33%6.67%3.33%——30.00%
23.33%6.67%13.33%10.00%——33.33%
3—6.67%————6.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total13.33%36.67%23.33%26.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.63 -0.47
SD 0.95 1.03 1.46
CV 0.81 0.63 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%6.67%3.33%6.67%3.33%—23.33%
113.33%10.00%6.67%6.67%——36.67%
2—10.00%6.67%—3.33%—20.00%
33.33%3.33%6.67%———13.33%
43.33%—————3.33%
5+——3.33%———3.33%
Total23.33%30.00%26.67%13.33%6.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.50 -0.03
SD 1.28 1.20 1.87
CV 0.87 0.80 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
023.33%3.33%3.33%6.67%3.33%—40.00%
110.00%13.33%13.33%———36.67%
2—10.00%6.67%6.67%——23.33%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%26.67%23.33%13.33%3.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 1.27 -0.43
SD 0.79 1.17 1.25
CV 0.95 0.93 —
Max 2 4 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 30

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Portimonense 54 43.14 +10.86
2 Beira-Mar 54 43.79 +10.21
3 Feirense 52 44.99 +7.01
4 Oliveirense 49 43.40 +5.60
5 Penafiel 41 35.87 +5.13

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Carregado 24 39.07 -15.07
2 Chaves 28 42.40 -14.40
3 Estoril 35 41.82 -6.82
4 Sporting Covilha 30 36.32 -6.32
5 Freamunde 35 38.84 -3.84

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Oliveirense 6 Jan 17 – Feb 20 1 in 277
2 Trofense 4 Apr 11 – May 1 1 in 81
3 Freamunde 4 Dec 20 – Jan 31 1 in 60
4 Beira-Mar 4 Dec 8 – Jan 10 1 in 39
5 Penafiel 2 Jan 31 – Feb 7 1 in 30

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Chaves 4 Jan 17 – Feb 14 1 in 175
2 Carregado 4 Nov 1 – Nov 29 1 in 102
3 Trofense 3 Sep 19 – Oct 4 1 in 33
4 Freamunde 3 Apr 3 – Apr 18 1 in 23
5 Santa Clara 2 Jan 31 – Feb 7 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Santa Clara 13 Sep 20 – Jan 17 1 in 104
2 Feirense 12 Feb 14 – May 8 1 in 59
3 Estoril 9 Sep 26 – Dec 12 1 in 58
4 Fatima 8 Oct 24 – Jan 10 1 in 54
5 Beira-Mar 8 Nov 29 – Feb 6 1 in 28

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Chaves 13 Jan 10 – Apr 18 1 in 308
2 Carregado 10 Oct 25 – Jan 17 1 in 129
3 Penafiel 9 Nov 1 – Jan 17 1 in 26
4 Varzim 9 Nov 1 – Jan 23 1 in 19
5 Trofense 5 Aug 23 – Oct 4 1 in 18

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910111213141516
Beira-Mar9.70%10.35%9.46%9.25%8.50%8.22%7.63%6.82%6.02%5.33%4.86%4.03%3.45%2.85%2.17%1.36%
Portimonense8.01%8.49%9.47%8.73%8.94%7.75%7.42%6.51%6.52%5.97%5.42%4.62%4.33%3.53%2.80%1.49%
Feirense12.94%12.50%10.57%9.62%8.71%7.54%7.51%6.06%5.13%4.60%3.85%3.38%2.88%2.08%1.59%1.04%
Santa Clara27.48%15.93%12.52%9.47%7.35%6.13%4.61%3.95%3.26%2.82%2.12%1.63%1.22%0.83%0.43%0.25%
Oliveirense9.26%9.46%8.97%8.94%8.36%7.86%7.13%6.51%6.42%5.66%5.29%4.70%3.83%3.32%2.70%1.59%
Trofense7.90%8.64%8.52%8.41%8.58%7.76%7.63%6.96%6.54%5.95%5.64%4.83%4.29%3.84%2.84%1.67%
Penafiel0.73%1.45%2.19%2.85%3.32%4.49%4.63%5.03%6.07%6.63%7.93%8.88%9.72%11.22%12.10%12.76%
Gil Vicente4.62%6.11%6.79%7.12%7.40%7.55%7.24%8.09%6.91%7.58%6.88%6.16%5.75%4.69%4.07%3.04%
Aves1.82%2.92%3.82%4.88%5.05%5.69%7.13%7.22%7.38%7.80%7.69%8.13%8.14%8.07%7.65%6.61%
Fatima1.12%1.40%2.17%2.40%3.16%4.06%4.81%5.73%6.75%6.72%7.57%9.23%9.87%10.60%11.50%12.91%
Estoril5.11%6.45%7.08%7.52%7.05%7.71%7.54%7.49%7.43%7.20%6.62%6.20%5.42%4.42%4.30%2.46%
Freamunde2.23%3.47%4.10%4.77%5.17%5.64%6.45%6.57%7.07%7.84%7.56%8.01%8.69%8.29%7.96%6.18%
Varzim0.22%0.52%0.82%1.05%1.53%1.95%2.37%3.17%3.90%5.19%6.34%7.55%9.12%12.86%16.94%26.47%
Sporting Covilha0.75%1.80%2.03%2.61%3.32%4.15%4.91%5.47%6.45%6.70%7.70%8.65%9.85%10.93%11.70%12.98%
Chaves6.00%7.49%7.48%8.03%7.94%7.36%7.08%7.11%6.86%6.19%6.41%5.95%5.41%4.49%3.66%2.54%
Carregado2.11%3.02%4.01%4.35%5.62%6.14%5.91%7.31%7.29%7.82%8.12%8.05%8.03%7.98%7.59%6.65%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+12.08%
Slight Edge
40.00%32.08%27.92%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 42.19 Elo pts.
431 Elo
0.002 goals per Elo point
01500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.22 goals
Neutral
-2+0.10+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
7.5
Wide Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
10%
Beira-Mar, 3rd of 16
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.46 * Some Luck: 5.46 to 8.18 * Lucky: 8.18 to 10.91 * Wild Swing: 10.91 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.91 * Close: 2.91 to 4.37 * Off: 4.37 to 5.82 * Way Off: 5.82 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 16 * As Expected: 16 to 25.6 * Several Outliers: 25.6 to 35.2 * Many Outliers: 35.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
7.46 points
Some Luck
06.8217
Average Finish Error
Expected
3.12
Close
03.648
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.88%
95.12%
Portimonense
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.12%
1.33%
Carregado
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 16
Minimal Outliers
01.68

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.13
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.18
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
65%
Slight Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
75%
Clear Edge
50%79%100%
Close Games
Expected
74%
Very Frequent
0%70%100%
Blowouts
Expected 8%
10%
Occasional
0%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.67
Coin-Flip
00.642
Matchup Imbalance
0.24
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.20
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
-0.32
Weak Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
28%
As Expected
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Shaky Favorites
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.1 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.1 to 0.16 * Above Noise: 0.16 to 0.21 * Well Above Noise: 0.21 and up.
Probability calibration
0.62
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.24
Overconfident
0.01480961.001.98519
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.040
Well Within Noise
00.1040.25

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Same level Direct relegation
Santa Clara 43.41% 55.91% 0.68%
Feirense 25.44% 71.93% 2.63%
Beira-Mar 20.05% 76.42% 3.53%
Oliveirense 18.72% 76.99% 4.29%
Portimonense 16.50% 79.21% 4.29%
Trofense 16.54% 78.95% 4.51%
Chaves 13.49% 80.31% 6.20%
Estoril 11.56% 81.68% 6.76%
Gil Vicente 10.73% 82.16% 7.11%
Freamunde 5.70% 80.16% 14.14%
Carregado 5.13% 80.63% 14.24%
Aves 4.74% 81.00% 14.26%
Fatima 2.52% 73.07% 24.41%
Sporting Covilha 2.55% 72.77% 24.68%
Penafiel 2.18% 72.96% 24.86%
Varzim 0.74% 55.85% 43.41%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2009-08-13 Sporting Covilha L 0-1 1554 1573 40.0% 29.9% 30.2% -10.9 0
2009-08-13 @ Beira-Mar W 1-0 1573 1554 30.2% 29.9% 40.0% +10.9 3
2009-08-16 Aves D 0-0 1567 1541 46.0% 29.2% 24.8% -1.3 1
2009-08-16 @ Freamunde D 0-0 1541 1567 24.8% 29.2% 46.0% +1.3 1
2009-08-16 Carregado W 3-0 1624 1665 36.9% 30.0% 33.1% +26.0 3
2009-08-16 @ Trofense L 0-3 1665 1624 33.1% 30.0% 36.9% -26.0 0
2009-08-16 Fatima W 1-0 1589 1512 52.2% 27.9% 19.8% +6.3 3
2009-08-16 @ Santa Clara L 0-1 1512 1589 19.8% 27.9% 52.2% -6.3 0
2009-08-16 Feirense L 0-1 1600 1558 47.9% 28.9% 23.2% -12.5 0
2009-08-16 @ Chaves W 1-0 1558 1600 23.2% 28.9% 47.9% +12.5 3
2009-08-16 Oliveirense D 0-0 1521 1558 37.5% 30.0% 32.5% -0.3 1
2009-08-16 @ Varzim D 0-0 1558 1521 32.5% 30.0% 37.5% +0.3 1
2009-08-16 Penafiel W 3-1 1564 1537 46.1% 29.2% 24.7% +12.4 3
2009-08-16 @ Gil Vicente L 1-3 1537 1564 24.7% 29.2% 46.1% -12.4 0
2009-08-16 Portimonense L 1-3 1585 1549 47.4% 29.0% 23.6% -20.3 0
2009-08-16 @ Estoril W 3-1 1549 1585 23.6% 29.0% 47.4% +20.3 3
2009-08-23 Beira-Mar W 2-1 1569 1543 45.9% 29.2% 24.9% +7.2 6
2009-08-23 @ Portimonense L 1-2 1543 1569 24.9% 29.2% 45.9% -7.2 0
2009-08-23 Chaves D 2-2 1542 1587 36.3% 30.0% 33.7% -0.1 2
2009-08-23 @ Aves D 2-2 1587 1542 33.7% 30.0% 36.3% +0.1 1
2009-08-23 Estoril D 0-0 1558 1565 41.6% 29.8% 28.6% -0.8 2
2009-08-23 @ Oliveirense D 0-0 1565 1558 28.6% 29.8% 41.6% +0.8 1
2009-08-23 Freamunde L 2-3 1584 1566 45.0% 29.4% 25.6% -10.7 3
2009-08-23 @ Sporting Covilha W 3-2 1566 1584 25.6% 29.4% 45.0% +10.7 4
2009-08-23 Gil Vicente W 1-0 1639 1577 50.5% 28.3% 21.1% +6.7 3
2009-08-23 @ Carregado L 0-1 1577 1639 21.1% 28.3% 50.5% -6.7 3
2009-08-23 Santa Clara D 2-2 1525 1595 32.7% 30.0% 37.3% +0.2 1
2009-08-23 @ Penafiel D 2-2 1595 1525 37.3% 30.0% 32.7% -0.2 4
2009-08-23 Trofense W 2-1 1506 1650 23.8% 29.0% 47.2% +11.7 3
2009-08-23 @ Fatima L 1-2 1650 1506 47.2% 29.0% 23.8% -11.7 3
2009-08-23 Varzim W 4-0 1571 1521 49.0% 28.7% 22.3% +25.0 6
2009-08-23 @ Feirense L 0-4 1521 1571 22.3% 28.7% 49.0% -25.0 1
2009-08-28 Varzim D 1-1 1566 1496 51.4% 28.1% 20.4% -1.8 2
2009-08-28 @ Estoril D 1-1 1496 1566 20.4% 28.1% 51.4% +1.8 2
2009-08-30 Aves D 2-2 1638 1542 54.5% 27.3% 18.2% -1.6 4
2009-08-30 @ Trofense D 2-2 1542 1638 18.2% 27.3% 54.5% +1.5 3
2009-08-30 Carregado D 1-1 1525 1646 26.4% 29.5% 44.2% +1.0 2
2009-08-30 @ Penafiel D 1-1 1646 1525 44.2% 29.5% 26.4% -1.0 4
2009-08-30 Fatima D 1-1 1576 1517 50.1% 28.4% 21.5% -1.6 5
2009-08-30 @ Freamunde D 1-1 1517 1576 21.5% 28.4% 50.1% +1.6 4
2009-08-30 Feirense W 1-0 1536 1596 34.2% 30.0% 35.8% +10.0 3
2009-08-30 @ Beira-Mar L 0-1 1596 1536 35.8% 30.0% 34.2% -10.0 6
2009-08-30 Oliveirense L 1-2 1595 1557 47.5% 29.0% 23.5% -11.7 4
2009-08-30 @ Santa Clara W 2-1 1557 1595 23.5% 29.0% 47.5% +11.7 5
2009-08-30 Portimonense D 1-1 1587 1576 44.0% 29.5% 26.5% -1.0 2
2009-08-30 @ Chaves D 1-1 1576 1587 26.5% 29.5% 44.0% +1.0 7
2009-08-30 Sporting Covilha W 3-0 1570 1574 42.1% 29.7% 28.2% +23.1 6
2009-08-30 @ Gil Vicente L 0-3 1574 1570 28.2% 29.7% 42.1% -23.1 3
2009-09-06 Estoril W 3-1 1550 1564 40.7% 29.8% 29.5% +14.3 6
2009-09-06 @ Sporting Covilha L 1-3 1564 1550 29.5% 29.8% 40.7% -14.2 2
2009-09-19 Chaves W 1-0 1497 1586 30.2% 29.9% 39.9% +10.9 5
2009-09-19 @ Varzim L 0-1 1586 1497 39.9% 29.9% 30.2% -10.9 2
2009-09-19 Gil Vicente L 0-3 1577 1593 40.4% 29.8% 29.8% -30.0 7
2009-09-19 @ Portimonense W 3-0 1593 1577 29.8% 29.8% 40.4% +30.0 9
2009-09-19 Trofense W 3-0 1586 1637 35.5% 30.0% 34.5% +26.8 9
2009-09-19 @ Feirense L 0-3 1637 1586 34.5% 30.0% 35.5% -26.8 4
2009-09-20 Beira-Mar L 1-2 1519 1546 38.8% 29.9% 31.2% -10.0 4
2009-09-20 @ Fatima W 2-1 1546 1519 31.2% 29.9% 38.8% +10.0 6
2009-09-20 Freamunde W 2-1 1569 1575 41.8% 29.7% 28.5% +8.0 8
2009-09-20 @ Oliveirense L 1-2 1575 1569 28.5% 29.7% 41.8% -8.0 5
2009-09-20 Penafiel W 3-2 1543 1526 44.9% 29.4% 25.8% +7.0 6
2009-09-20 @ Aves L 2-3 1526 1543 25.8% 29.4% 44.9% -7.0 2
2009-09-20 Santa Clara L 1-2 1645 1583 50.4% 28.4% 21.2% -12.3 4
2009-09-20 @ Carregado W 2-1 1583 1645 21.2% 28.4% 50.4% +12.3 7
2009-09-24 Feirense D 1-1 1596 1613 40.2% 29.9% 29.9% -0.5 8
2009-09-24 @ Santa Clara D 1-1 1613 1596 29.9% 29.9% 40.2% +0.5 10
2009-09-26 Aves D 0-0 1632 1550 52.9% 27.7% 19.4% -2.1 5
2009-09-26 @ Carregado D 0-0 1550 1632 19.4% 27.7% 52.9% +2.1 7
2009-09-26 Estoril D 1-1 1575 1550 45.9% 29.2% 24.9% -1.2 3
2009-09-26 @ Chaves D 1-1 1550 1575 24.9% 29.2% 45.9% +1.2 3
2009-09-26 Fatima D 1-1 1623 1509 56.5% 26.6% 16.9% -2.3 10
2009-09-26 @ Gil Vicente D 1-1 1509 1623 16.9% 26.6% 56.5% +2.3 5
2009-09-26 Oliveirense W 1-0 1556 1577 39.7% 29.9% 30.4% +8.9 9
2009-09-26 @ Beira-Mar L 0-1 1577 1556 30.4% 29.9% 39.7% -8.9 8
2009-09-26 Portimonense L 0-3 1610 1547 50.6% 28.3% 21.1% -35.8 4
2009-09-26 @ Trofense W 3-0 1547 1610 21.1% 28.3% 50.6% +35.8 10
2009-09-26 Sporting Covilha W 1-0 1519 1565 36.2% 30.0% 33.8% +9.6 5
2009-09-26 @ Penafiel L 0-1 1565 1519 33.8% 30.0% 36.2% -9.6 6
2009-09-26 Varzim W 2-1 1567 1508 50.0% 28.4% 21.5% +6.4 8
2009-09-26 @ Freamunde L 1-2 1508 1567 21.5% 28.4% 50.0% -6.4 5
2009-10-03 Beira-Mar W 2-0 1551 1565 40.6% 29.8% 29.5% +16.5 6
2009-10-03 @ Estoril L 0-2 1565 1551 29.5% 29.8% 40.6% -16.5 9
2009-10-04 Carregado L 1-2 1511 1630 26.5% 29.5% 44.0% -7.6 5
2009-10-04 @ Fatima W 2-1 1630 1511 44.0% 29.5% 26.5% +7.6 8
2009-10-04 Chaves L 1-3 1568 1574 41.7% 29.7% 28.5% -18.3 8
2009-10-04 @ Oliveirense W 3-1 1574 1568 28.5% 29.7% 41.7% +18.3 6
2009-10-04 Freamunde W 1-0 1583 1573 43.9% 29.5% 26.6% +8.1 13
2009-10-04 @ Portimonense L 0-1 1573 1583 26.6% 29.5% 43.9% -8.1 8
2009-10-04 Penafiel D 1-1 1613 1529 53.2% 27.7% 19.2% -1.9 11
2009-10-04 @ Feirense D 1-1 1529 1613 19.2% 27.7% 53.2% +1.9 6
2009-10-04 Santa Clara L 1-2 1502 1595 29.7% 29.8% 40.5% -8.3 5
2009-10-04 @ Varzim W 2-1 1595 1502 40.5% 29.8% 29.7% +8.3 11
2009-10-04 Trofense W 2-1 1555 1574 40.0% 29.9% 30.2% +8.4 9
2009-10-04 @ Sporting Covilha L 1-2 1574 1555 30.2% 29.9% 40.0% -8.4 4
2009-10-05 Gil Vicente D 2-2 1552 1621 33.0% 30.0% 37.0% +0.2 8
2009-10-05 @ Aves D 2-2 1621 1552 37.0% 30.0% 33.0% -0.1 11
2009-10-24 Chaves W 2-1 1549 1593 36.5% 30.0% 33.5% +9.0 12
2009-10-24 @ Beira-Mar L 1-2 1593 1549 33.5% 30.0% 36.5% -9.0 6
2009-10-24 Estoril D 1-1 1603 1568 47.2% 29.0% 23.7% -1.3 12
2009-10-24 @ Santa Clara D 1-1 1568 1603 23.7% 29.0% 47.2% +1.3 7
2009-10-24 Fatima L 0-1 1553 1504 48.9% 28.7% 22.4% -12.7 8
2009-10-24 @ Aves W 1-0 1504 1553 22.4% 28.7% 48.9% +12.7 8
2009-10-24 Oliveirense W 1-0 1566 1550 44.7% 29.4% 25.9% +7.9 7
2009-10-24 @ Trofense L 0-1 1550 1566 25.9% 29.4% 44.7% -7.9 8
2009-10-24 Portimonense W 1-0 1531 1591 34.1% 30.0% 35.9% +10.0 9
2009-10-24 @ Penafiel L 0-1 1591 1531 35.9% 30.0% 34.1% -10.1 13
2009-10-24 Varzim L 1-2 1621 1494 57.9% 26.1% 16.0% -13.8 11
2009-10-24 @ Gil Vicente W 2-1 1494 1621 16.0% 26.1% 57.9% +13.8 8
2009-10-25 Feirense L 1-2 1565 1611 36.1% 30.0% 33.9% -9.5 8
2009-10-25 @ Freamunde W 2-1 1611 1565 33.9% 30.0% 36.1% +9.5 14
2009-10-25 Sporting Covilha D 1-1 1638 1563 52.0% 28.0% 20.1% -1.8 9
2009-10-25 @ Carregado D 1-1 1563 1638 20.1% 28.0% 52.0% +1.8 10
2009-10-31 Santa Clara D 0-0 1581 1602 39.6% 29.9% 30.4% -0.5 14
2009-10-31 @ Portimonense D 0-0 1602 1581 30.4% 29.9% 39.6% +0.5 13
2009-11-01 Aves L 1-2 1565 1540 45.9% 29.2% 24.9% -11.4 10
2009-11-01 @ Sporting Covilha W 2-1 1540 1565 24.9% 29.2% 45.9% +11.4 11
2009-11-01 Beira-Mar D 1-1 1507 1558 35.5% 30.0% 34.4% -0.1 9
2009-11-01 @ Varzim D 1-1 1558 1507 34.4% 30.0% 35.5% +0.0 13
2009-11-01 Carregado W 3-0 1542 1636 29.5% 29.8% 40.6% +30.2 11
2009-11-01 @ Oliveirense L 0-3 1636 1542 40.6% 29.8% 29.5% -30.1 9
2009-11-01 Freamunde D 1-1 1584 1555 46.3% 29.2% 24.6% -1.2 7
2009-11-01 @ Chaves D 1-1 1555 1584 24.6% 29.2% 46.3% +1.2 9
2009-11-01 Gil Vicente L 0-1 1621 1607 44.4% 29.4% 26.2% -11.8 14
2009-11-01 @ Feirense W 1-0 1607 1621 26.2% 29.4% 44.4% +11.8 14
2009-11-01 Penafiel D 2-2 1516 1541 39.2% 29.9% 30.8% -0.3 9
2009-11-01 @ Fatima D 2-2 1541 1516 30.8% 29.9% 39.2% +0.3 10
2009-11-01 Trofense D 1-1 1569 1574 41.9% 29.7% 28.4% -0.7 8
2009-11-01 @ Estoril D 1-1 1574 1569 28.4% 29.7% 41.9% +0.7 8
2009-11-07 Portimonense L 1-3 1606 1580 45.9% 29.2% 24.9% -19.8 9
2009-11-07 @ Carregado W 3-1 1580 1606 24.9% 29.2% 45.9% +19.8 17
2009-11-08 Beira-Mar L 1-2 1557 1558 42.4% 29.7% 27.9% -10.7 9
2009-11-08 @ Freamunde W 2-1 1558 1557 27.9% 29.7% 42.4% +10.7 16
2009-11-08 Chaves W 3-0 1603 1582 45.2% 29.3% 25.4% +21.3 16
2009-11-08 @ Santa Clara L 0-3 1582 1603 25.4% 29.3% 45.2% -21.3 7
2009-11-08 Estoril L 0-2 1619 1568 49.1% 28.6% 22.3% -24.1 14
2009-11-08 @ Gil Vicente W 2-0 1568 1619 22.3% 28.6% 49.1% +24.1 11
2009-11-08 Feirense D 1-1 1551 1609 34.5% 30.0% 35.5% +0.0 12
2009-11-08 @ Aves D 1-1 1609 1551 35.5% 30.0% 34.5% -0.1 15
2009-11-08 Oliveirense L 0-2 1541 1572 38.3% 30.0% 31.8% -19.9 10
2009-11-08 @ Penafiel W 2-0 1572 1541 31.8% 30.0% 38.3% +19.9 14
2009-11-08 Sporting Covilha W 3-0 1516 1554 37.3% 30.0% 32.7% +25.8 12
2009-11-08 @ Fatima L 0-3 1554 1516 32.7% 30.0% 37.3% -25.8 10
2009-11-08 Varzim W 2-1 1574 1507 51.1% 28.2% 20.7% +6.2 11
2009-11-08 @ Trofense L 1-2 1507 1574 20.7% 28.2% 51.1% -6.2 9
2009-11-14 Freamunde D 0-0 1592 1546 48.5% 28.8% 22.7% -1.6 12
2009-11-14 @ Estoril D 0-0 1546 1592 22.7% 28.8% 48.5% +1.6 10
2009-11-15 Aves D 0-0 1501 1551 35.6% 30.0% 34.4% -0.1 10
2009-11-15 @ Varzim D 0-0 1551 1501 34.4% 30.0% 35.6% +0.1 13
2009-11-15 Carregado W 1-0 1609 1586 45.6% 29.3% 25.1% +7.7 18
2009-11-15 @ Feirense L 0-1 1586 1609 25.1% 29.3% 45.6% -7.7 9
2009-11-15 Gil Vicente D 1-1 1592 1595 42.2% 29.7% 28.1% -0.8 15
2009-11-15 @ Oliveirense D 1-1 1595 1592 28.1% 29.7% 42.2% +0.8 15
2009-11-15 Penafiel W 2-0 1561 1521 47.8% 28.9% 23.3% +13.7 10
2009-11-15 @ Chaves L 0-2 1521 1561 23.3% 28.9% 47.8% -13.7 10
2009-11-15 Trofense L 1-2 1569 1581 40.9% 29.8% 29.3% -10.4 16
2009-11-15 @ Beira-Mar W 2-1 1581 1569 29.3% 29.8% 40.9% +10.4 14
2009-11-16 Fatima D 3-3 1600 1542 50.0% 28.4% 21.5% -1.0 18
2009-11-16 @ Portimonense D 3-3 1542 1600 21.5% 28.4% 50.0% +1.0 13
2009-11-17 Santa Clara D 2-2 1528 1624 29.3% 29.8% 40.8% +0.5 11
2009-11-17 @ Sporting Covilha D 2-2 1624 1528 40.8% 29.8% 29.3% -0.5 17
2009-11-29 Beira-Mar D 1-1 1624 1558 50.9% 28.2% 20.9% -1.7 18
2009-11-29 @ Santa Clara D 1-1 1558 1624 20.9% 28.2% 50.9% +1.7 17
2009-11-29 Chaves L 0-3 1595 1575 45.3% 29.3% 25.4% -32.8 15
2009-11-29 @ Gil Vicente W 3-0 1575 1595 25.4% 29.3% 45.3% +32.8 13
2009-11-29 Estoril L 1-2 1578 1591 40.9% 29.8% 29.3% -10.4 9
2009-11-29 @ Carregado W 2-1 1591 1578 29.3% 29.8% 40.9% +10.4 15
2009-11-29 Freamunde W 4-0 1591 1547 48.2% 28.8% 23.0% +25.7 17
2009-11-29 @ Trofense L 0-4 1547 1591 23.0% 28.8% 48.2% -25.7 10
2009-11-29 Oliveirense W 2-1 1551 1591 37.1% 30.0% 32.9% +8.9 16
2009-11-29 @ Aves L 1-2 1591 1551 32.9% 30.0% 37.1% -8.9 15
2009-11-29 Portimonense W 3-1 1529 1599 32.7% 30.0% 37.3% +16.9 14
2009-11-29 @ Sporting Covilha L 1-3 1599 1529 37.3% 30.0% 32.7% -16.9 18
2009-11-29 Varzim D 0-0 1507 1501 43.4% 29.6% 27.0% -1.0 11
2009-11-29 @ Penafiel D 0-0 1501 1507 27.0% 29.6% 43.4% +1.0 11
2009-12-01 Feirense W 1-0 1543 1617 32.2% 30.0% 37.8% +10.4 16
2009-12-01 @ Fatima L 0-1 1617 1543 37.8% 30.0% 32.2% -10.4 18
2009-12-05 Penafiel D 0-0 1601 1506 54.3% 27.3% 18.4% -2.3 16
2009-12-05 @ Estoril D 0-0 1506 1601 18.4% 27.3% 54.3% +2.3 12
2009-12-06 Aves D 1-1 1582 1560 45.5% 29.3% 25.2% -1.1 19
2009-12-06 @ Portimonense D 1-1 1560 1582 25.2% 29.3% 45.5% +1.1 17
2009-12-06 Carregado D 1-1 1502 1568 33.3% 30.0% 36.6% +0.2 12
2009-12-06 @ Varzim D 1-1 1568 1502 36.6% 30.0% 33.3% -0.2 10
2009-12-06 Santa Clara L 1-2 1522 1622 28.8% 29.8% 41.4% -8.1 10
2009-12-06 @ Freamunde W 2-1 1622 1522 41.4% 29.8% 28.8% +8.1 21
2009-12-06 Sporting Covilha W 3-2 1606 1545 50.3% 28.4% 21.3% +6.0 21
2009-12-06 @ Feirense L 2-3 1545 1606 21.3% 28.4% 50.3% -6.0 14
2009-12-06 Trofense D 1-1 1608 1617 41.3% 29.8% 28.9% -0.7 14
2009-12-06 @ Chaves D 1-1 1617 1608 28.9% 29.8% 41.3% +0.7 18
2009-12-08 Gil Vicente W 2-1 1560 1563 42.2% 29.7% 28.1% +7.9 20
2009-12-08 @ Beira-Mar L 1-2 1563 1560 28.1% 29.7% 42.2% -8.0 15
2009-12-10 Feirense W 1-0 1581 1612 38.3% 30.0% 31.8% +9.2 22
2009-12-10 @ Portimonense L 0-1 1612 1581 31.8% 30.0% 38.3% -9.2 21
2009-12-12 Estoril L 0-1 1561 1599 37.4% 30.0% 32.6% -10.4 17
2009-12-12 @ Aves W 1-0 1599 1561 32.6% 30.0% 37.4% +10.4 19
2009-12-13 Beira-Mar L 0-2 1509 1568 34.3% 30.0% 35.7% -18.4 12
2009-12-13 @ Penafiel W 2-0 1568 1509 35.7% 30.0% 34.3% +18.4 23
2009-12-13 Chaves L 1-2 1568 1607 37.1% 30.0% 32.8% -9.7 10
2009-12-13 @ Carregado W 2-1 1607 1568 32.8% 30.0% 37.1% +9.7 17
2009-12-13 Freamunde D 1-1 1555 1514 47.9% 28.9% 23.2% -1.4 16
2009-12-13 @ Gil Vicente D 1-1 1514 1555 23.2% 28.9% 47.9% +1.4 11
2009-12-13 Oliveirense D 1-1 1539 1582 36.6% 30.0% 33.4% -0.2 15
2009-12-13 @ Sporting Covilha D 1-1 1582 1539 33.4% 30.0% 36.6% +0.2 16
2009-12-13 Trofense W 3-1 1630 1617 44.2% 29.5% 26.3% +13.1 24
2009-12-13 @ Santa Clara L 1-3 1617 1630 26.3% 29.5% 44.2% -13.1 18
2009-12-13 Varzim D 0-0 1553 1502 49.1% 28.6% 22.2% -1.7 17
2009-12-13 @ Fatima D 0-0 1502 1553 22.2% 28.6% 49.1% +1.7 13
2009-12-19 Fatima L 0-1 1609 1552 49.9% 28.5% 21.6% -13.0 19
2009-12-19 @ Estoril W 1-0 1552 1609 21.6% 28.5% 49.9% +12.9 20
2009-12-19 Portimonense D 0-0 1504 1590 30.6% 29.9% 39.5% +0.5 14
2009-12-19 @ Varzim D 0-0 1590 1504 39.5% 29.9% 30.6% -0.5 23
2009-12-20 Aves W 3-2 1586 1551 47.1% 29.0% 23.8% +6.6 26
2009-12-20 @ Beira-Mar L 2-3 1551 1586 23.8% 29.0% 47.1% -6.6 17
2009-12-20 Carregado W 3-0 1515 1558 36.6% 30.0% 33.4% +26.2 14
2009-12-20 @ Freamunde L 0-3 1558 1515 33.4% 30.0% 36.6% -26.2 10
2009-12-20 Feirense D 0-0 1582 1603 39.7% 29.9% 30.4% -0.5 17
2009-12-20 @ Oliveirense D 0-0 1603 1582 30.4% 29.9% 39.7% +0.5 22
2009-12-20 Gil Vicente D 0-0 1643 1553 53.8% 27.5% 18.8% -2.2 25
2009-12-20 @ Santa Clara D 0-0 1553 1643 18.8% 27.5% 53.8% +2.2 17
2009-12-20 Penafiel D 0-0 1604 1490 56.5% 26.6% 16.9% -2.6 19
2009-12-20 @ Trofense D 0-0 1490 1604 16.9% 26.6% 56.5% +2.6 13
2009-12-20 Sporting Covilha W 3-1 1617 1539 52.3% 27.9% 19.8% +10.3 20
2009-12-20 @ Chaves L 1-3 1539 1617 19.8% 27.9% 52.3% -10.3 15
2010-01-07 Santa Clara D 0-0 1544 1641 29.3% 29.8% 40.9% +0.7 18
2010-01-07 @ Aves D 0-0 1641 1544 40.9% 29.8% 29.3% -0.7 26
2010-01-09 Trofense W 4-0 1555 1602 36.1% 30.0% 33.8% +34.5 20
2010-01-09 @ Gil Vicente L 0-4 1602 1555 33.8% 30.0% 36.1% -34.5 19
2010-01-10 Beira-Mar L 0-2 1532 1593 34.0% 30.0% 35.9% -18.3 10
2010-01-10 @ Carregado W 2-0 1593 1532 35.9% 30.0% 34.0% +18.3 29
2010-01-10 Chaves D 0-0 1565 1627 33.8% 30.0% 36.1% +0.1 21
2010-01-10 @ Fatima D 0-0 1627 1565 36.1% 30.0% 33.8% -0.1 21
2010-01-10 Estoril D 1-1 1604 1596 43.6% 29.5% 26.9% -0.9 23
2010-01-10 @ Feirense D 1-1 1596 1604 26.9% 29.5% 43.6% +0.9 20
2010-01-10 Freamunde L 2-3 1493 1541 35.8% 30.0% 34.2% -9.0 13
2010-01-10 @ Penafiel W 3-2 1541 1493 34.2% 30.0% 35.8% +9.0 17
2010-01-10 Oliveirense W 3-1 1590 1582 43.6% 29.5% 26.8% +13.3 26
2010-01-10 @ Portimonense L 1-3 1582 1590 26.8% 29.5% 43.6% -13.3 17
2010-01-15 Beira-Mar D 2-2 1529 1611 31.1% 29.9% 38.9% +0.3 16
2010-01-15 @ Sporting Covilha D 2-2 1611 1529 38.9% 29.9% 31.1% -0.3 30
2010-01-16 Freamunde L 1-2 1545 1550 41.9% 29.7% 28.4% -10.6 18
2010-01-16 @ Aves W 2-1 1550 1545 28.4% 29.7% 41.9% +10.6 20
2010-01-17 Chaves W 1-0 1603 1627 39.3% 29.9% 30.8% +9.0 26
2010-01-17 @ Feirense L 0-1 1627 1603 30.8% 29.9% 39.3% -9.0 21
2010-01-17 Estoril W 2-1 1603 1597 43.4% 29.6% 27.1% +7.7 29
2010-01-17 @ Portimonense L 1-2 1597 1603 27.1% 29.6% 43.4% -7.7 20
2010-01-17 Gil Vicente D 0-0 1484 1590 28.1% 29.7% 42.2% +0.8 14
2010-01-17 @ Penafiel D 0-0 1590 1484 42.2% 29.7% 28.1% -0.8 21
2010-01-17 Santa Clara L 2-5 1565 1640 32.0% 30.0% 38.0% -18.6 21
2010-01-17 @ Fatima W 5-2 1640 1565 38.0% 30.0% 32.0% +18.6 29
2010-01-17 Trofense L 2-3 1514 1567 35.1% 30.0% 34.9% -8.9 10
2010-01-17 @ Carregado W 3-2 1567 1514 34.9% 30.0% 35.1% +8.8 22
2010-01-17 Varzim W 3-0 1569 1504 50.7% 28.3% 21.0% +18.2 20
2010-01-17 @ Oliveirense L 0-3 1504 1569 21.0% 28.3% 50.7% -18.2 14
2010-01-23 Varzim D 0-0 1529 1486 48.1% 28.8% 23.0% -1.6 17
2010-01-23 @ Sporting Covilha D 0-0 1486 1529 23.0% 28.8% 48.1% +1.5 15
2010-01-24 Fatima W 1-0 1587 1546 47.8% 28.9% 23.3% +7.2 23
2010-01-24 @ Oliveirense L 0-1 1546 1587 23.3% 28.9% 47.8% -7.2 21
2010-01-28 Portimonense W 2-0 1611 1611 42.5% 29.7% 27.8% +15.8 33
2010-01-28 @ Beira-Mar L 0-2 1611 1611 27.8% 29.7% 42.5% -15.8 29
2010-01-30 Oliveirense L 0-1 1589 1594 41.9% 29.7% 28.3% -11.3 20
2010-01-30 @ Estoril W 1-0 1594 1589 28.3% 29.7% 41.9% +11.3 26
2010-01-31 Aves L 0-1 1618 1535 53.0% 27.7% 19.3% -13.6 21
2010-01-31 @ Chaves W 1-0 1535 1618 19.3% 27.7% 53.0% +13.6 21
2010-01-31 Carregado L 0-1 1589 1505 53.1% 27.7% 19.2% -13.6 21
2010-01-31 @ Gil Vicente W 1-0 1505 1589 19.2% 27.7% 53.1% +13.6 13
2010-01-31 Fatima W 1-0 1576 1539 47.4% 29.0% 23.6% +7.3 25
2010-01-31 @ Trofense L 0-1 1539 1576 23.6% 29.0% 47.4% -7.3 21
2010-01-31 Feirense W 2-1 1488 1612 26.0% 29.4% 44.6% +11.2 18
2010-01-31 @ Varzim L 1-2 1612 1488 44.6% 29.4% 26.0% -11.2 26
2010-01-31 Penafiel L 0-1 1659 1485 62.7% 24.2% 13.1% -15.6 29
2010-01-31 @ Santa Clara W 1-0 1485 1659 13.1% 24.2% 62.7% +15.6 17
2010-01-31 Sporting Covilha W 3-2 1561 1528 46.9% 29.1% 24.0% +6.7 23
2010-01-31 @ Freamunde L 2-3 1528 1561 24.0% 29.1% 46.9% -6.7 17
2010-02-06 Beira-Mar L 0-2 1601 1626 39.0% 29.9% 31.1% -20.1 26
2010-02-06 @ Feirense W 2-0 1626 1601 31.1% 29.9% 39.0% +20.1 36
2010-02-06 Estoril D 0-0 1499 1578 31.5% 30.0% 38.5% +0.4 19
2010-02-06 @ Varzim D 0-0 1578 1499 38.5% 30.0% 31.5% -0.4 21
2010-02-07 Chaves W 2-1 1595 1604 41.3% 29.8% 28.9% +8.1 32
2010-02-07 @ Portimonense L 1-2 1604 1595 28.9% 29.8% 41.3% -8.1 21
2010-02-07 Freamunde D 1-1 1532 1568 37.6% 30.0% 32.4% -0.3 22
2010-02-07 @ Fatima D 1-1 1568 1532 32.4% 30.0% 37.6% +0.3 24
2010-02-07 Gil Vicente L 1-2 1521 1576 34.9% 30.0% 35.0% -9.3 17
2010-02-07 @ Sporting Covilha W 2-1 1576 1521 35.0% 30.0% 34.9% +9.3 24
2010-02-07 Penafiel L 0-3 1518 1500 45.0% 29.4% 25.7% -32.6 13
2010-02-07 @ Carregado W 3-0 1500 1518 25.7% 29.4% 45.0% +32.6 20
2010-02-07 Santa Clara W 1-0 1605 1643 37.3% 30.0% 32.7% +9.4 29
2010-02-07 @ Oliveirense L 0-1 1643 1605 32.7% 30.0% 37.3% -9.4 29
2010-02-07 Trofense W 1-0 1548 1583 37.7% 30.0% 32.3% +9.3 24
2010-02-07 @ Aves L 0-1 1583 1548 32.3% 30.0% 37.7% -9.3 25
2010-02-11 Oliveirense L 1-2 1568 1615 36.0% 30.0% 33.9% -9.5 24
2010-02-11 @ Freamunde W 2-1 1615 1568 33.9% 30.0% 36.0% +9.5 32
2010-02-13 Sporting Covilha W 1-0 1578 1512 50.9% 28.2% 20.8% +6.6 24
2010-02-13 @ Estoril L 0-1 1512 1578 20.8% 28.2% 50.9% -6.6 17
2010-02-14 Aves D 1-1 1533 1557 39.2% 29.9% 30.9% -0.4 21
2010-02-14 @ Penafiel D 1-1 1557 1533 30.9% 29.9% 39.2% +0.4 25
2010-02-14 Carregado W 1-0 1634 1486 60.1% 25.3% 14.6% +4.7 32
2010-02-14 @ Santa Clara L 0-1 1486 1634 14.6% 25.3% 60.1% -4.7 13
2010-02-14 Fatima L 0-1 1647 1531 56.6% 26.6% 16.8% -14.3 36
2010-02-14 @ Beira-Mar W 1-0 1531 1647 16.8% 26.6% 56.6% +14.4 25
2010-02-14 Feirense L 0-2 1574 1580 41.7% 29.7% 28.6% -21.2 25
2010-02-14 @ Trofense W 2-0 1580 1574 28.6% 29.7% 41.7% +21.2 29
2010-02-14 Portimonense L 0-2 1585 1603 40.1% 29.9% 30.1% -20.5 24
2010-02-14 @ Gil Vicente W 2-0 1603 1585 30.1% 29.9% 40.1% +20.5 35
2010-02-14 Varzim L 0-1 1596 1499 54.5% 27.3% 18.2% -13.9 21
2010-02-14 @ Chaves W 1-0 1499 1596 18.2% 27.3% 54.5% +13.9 22
2010-02-20 Beira-Mar W 2-1 1624 1632 41.5% 29.8% 28.8% +8.1 35
2010-02-20 @ Oliveirense L 1-2 1632 1624 28.8% 29.8% 41.5% -8.1 36
2010-02-21 Carregado W 2-1 1558 1481 52.2% 27.9% 19.9% +6.0 28
2010-02-21 @ Aves L 1-2 1481 1558 19.9% 27.9% 52.2% -6.0 13
2010-02-21 Chaves D 2-2 1584 1582 42.8% 29.6% 27.5% -0.6 25
2010-02-21 @ Estoril D 2-2 1582 1584 27.5% 29.6% 42.8% +0.6 22
2010-02-21 Freamunde D 2-2 1513 1558 36.3% 30.0% 33.7% -0.1 23
2010-02-21 @ Varzim D 2-2 1558 1513 33.7% 30.0% 36.3% +0.1 25
2010-02-21 Gil Vicente D 0-0 1546 1564 40.0% 29.9% 30.1% -0.6 26
2010-02-21 @ Fatima D 0-0 1564 1546 30.1% 29.9% 40.0% +0.6 25
2010-02-21 Penafiel W 2-1 1505 1532 38.8% 29.9% 31.3% +8.6 20
2010-02-21 @ Sporting Covilha L 1-2 1532 1505 31.3% 29.9% 38.8% -8.6 21
2010-02-21 Santa Clara W 2-1 1602 1638 37.5% 30.0% 32.5% +8.9 32
2010-02-21 @ Feirense L 1-2 1638 1602 32.5% 30.0% 37.5% -8.8 32
2010-02-21 Trofense L 1-3 1624 1553 51.5% 28.1% 20.4% -21.7 35
2010-02-21 @ Portimonense W 3-1 1553 1624 20.4% 28.1% 51.5% +21.7 28
2010-02-27 Aves L 0-2 1565 1564 42.7% 29.6% 27.7% -21.6 25
2010-02-27 @ Gil Vicente W 2-0 1564 1565 27.7% 29.6% 42.7% +21.6 31
2010-02-27 Oliveirense D 0-0 1583 1632 35.6% 30.0% 34.3% -0.1 23
2010-02-27 @ Chaves D 0-0 1632 1583 34.3% 30.0% 35.6% +0.1 36
2010-02-28 Fatima D 1-1 1475 1545 32.8% 30.0% 37.2% +0.2 14
2010-02-28 @ Carregado D 1-1 1545 1475 37.2% 30.0% 32.8% -0.2 27
2010-02-28 Feirense D 1-1 1524 1610 30.5% 29.9% 39.6% +0.5 22
2010-02-28 @ Penafiel D 1-1 1610 1524 39.6% 29.9% 30.5% -0.5 33
2010-02-28 Portimonense L 0-3 1558 1602 36.5% 30.0% 33.5% -27.9 25
2010-02-28 @ Freamunde W 3-0 1602 1558 33.5% 30.0% 36.5% +27.9 38
2010-02-28 Sporting Covilha D 2-2 1575 1514 50.3% 28.4% 21.3% -1.2 29
2010-02-28 @ Trofense D 2-2 1514 1575 21.3% 28.4% 50.3% +1.2 21
2010-02-28 Varzim W 2-1 1630 1513 56.7% 26.6% 16.7% +5.1 35
2010-02-28 @ Santa Clara L 1-2 1513 1630 16.7% 26.6% 56.7% -5.1 23
2010-03-04 Beira-Mar D 1-1 1583 1624 36.8% 30.0% 33.2% -0.2 24
2010-03-04 @ Chaves D 1-1 1624 1583 33.2% 30.0% 36.8% +0.2 37
2010-03-07 Aves W 1-0 1545 1585 36.9% 30.0% 33.1% +9.5 30
2010-03-07 @ Fatima L 0-1 1585 1545 33.1% 30.0% 36.9% -9.5 31
2010-03-07 Carregado W 1-0 1515 1475 47.7% 28.9% 23.4% +7.3 24
2010-03-07 @ Sporting Covilha L 0-1 1475 1515 23.4% 28.9% 47.7% -7.3 14
2010-03-07 Freamunde D 1-1 1610 1531 52.6% 27.8% 19.6% -1.9 34
2010-03-07 @ Feirense D 1-1 1531 1610 19.6% 27.8% 52.6% +1.9 26
2010-03-07 Gil Vicente W 2-1 1508 1543 37.7% 30.0% 32.3% +8.8 26
2010-03-07 @ Varzim L 1-2 1543 1508 32.3% 30.0% 37.7% -8.8 25
2010-03-07 Penafiel L 1-3 1630 1524 55.5% 26.9% 17.5% -23.1 38
2010-03-07 @ Portimonense W 3-1 1524 1630 17.5% 26.9% 55.5% +23.1 25
2010-03-07 Santa Clara D 0-0 1584 1635 35.4% 30.0% 34.5% -0.1 26
2010-03-07 @ Estoril D 0-0 1635 1584 34.5% 30.0% 35.4% +0.1 36
2010-03-07 Trofense W 3-1 1632 1573 50.1% 28.4% 21.4% +11.0 39
2010-03-07 @ Oliveirense L 1-3 1573 1632 21.4% 28.4% 50.1% -11.0 29
2010-03-10 Estoril W 3-1 1624 1584 47.9% 28.9% 23.2% +11.8 40
2010-03-10 @ Beira-Mar L 1-3 1584 1624 23.2% 28.9% 47.9% -11.8 26
2010-03-13 Portimonense W 3-0 1635 1607 46.2% 29.2% 24.6% +20.8 39
2010-03-13 @ Santa Clara L 0-3 1607 1635 24.6% 29.2% 46.2% -20.8 38
2010-03-14 Chaves W 2-0 1532 1582 35.6% 30.0% 34.4% +18.4 29
2010-03-14 @ Freamunde L 0-2 1582 1532 34.4% 30.0% 35.6% -18.4 24
2010-03-14 Estoril D 1-1 1562 1572 41.3% 29.8% 28.9% -0.7 30
2010-03-14 @ Trofense D 1-1 1572 1562 28.9% 29.8% 41.3% +0.6 27
2010-03-14 Fatima W 2-1 1547 1554 41.6% 29.8% 28.6% +8.0 28
2010-03-14 @ Penafiel L 1-2 1554 1547 28.6% 29.8% 41.6% -8.0 30
2010-03-14 Feirense D 1-1 1535 1608 32.3% 30.0% 37.7% +0.3 26
2010-03-14 @ Gil Vicente D 1-1 1608 1535 37.7% 30.0% 32.3% -0.3 35
2010-03-14 Oliveirense W 4-1 1468 1643 20.7% 28.2% 51.1% +30.5 17
2010-03-14 @ Carregado L 1-4 1643 1468 51.1% 28.2% 20.7% -30.4 39
2010-03-14 Sporting Covilha W 3-0 1576 1522 49.5% 28.6% 22.0% +18.9 34
2010-03-14 @ Aves L 0-3 1522 1576 22.0% 28.6% 49.5% -18.9 24
2010-03-14 Varzim W 3-0 1636 1517 57.0% 26.4% 16.5% +14.6 43
2010-03-14 @ Beira-Mar L 0-3 1517 1636 16.5% 26.4% 57.0% -14.6 26
2010-03-27 Gil Vicente L 0-2 1572 1535 47.5% 29.0% 23.6% -23.4 27
2010-03-27 @ Estoril W 2-0 1535 1572 23.6% 29.0% 47.5% +23.4 29
2010-03-28 Aves W 1-0 1608 1595 44.3% 29.5% 26.3% +8.0 38
2010-03-28 @ Feirense L 0-1 1595 1608 26.3% 29.5% 44.3% -8.0 34
2010-03-28 Carregado W 1-0 1586 1499 53.5% 27.6% 18.9% +6.1 41
2010-03-28 @ Portimonense L 0-1 1499 1586 18.9% 27.6% 53.5% -6.0 17
2010-03-28 Fatima D 2-2 1503 1546 36.6% 30.0% 33.4% -0.1 25
2010-03-28 @ Sporting Covilha D 2-2 1546 1503 33.4% 30.0% 36.6% +0.1 31
2010-03-28 Freamunde L 1-3 1651 1551 54.9% 27.1% 17.9% -22.8 43
2010-03-28 @ Beira-Mar W 3-1 1551 1651 17.9% 27.1% 54.9% +22.9 32
2010-03-28 Penafiel W 2-0 1613 1555 49.9% 28.5% 21.6% +12.8 42
2010-03-28 @ Oliveirense L 0-2 1555 1613 21.6% 28.5% 49.9% -12.8 28
2010-03-28 Santa Clara L 0-3 1564 1655 29.9% 29.9% 40.2% -24.2 24
2010-03-28 @ Chaves W 3-0 1655 1564 40.2% 29.9% 29.9% +24.2 42
2010-03-28 Trofense L 0-1 1502 1562 34.3% 30.0% 35.7% -9.7 26
2010-03-28 @ Varzim W 1-0 1562 1502 35.7% 30.0% 34.3% +9.7 33
2010-04-02 Beira-Mar L 0-1 1571 1628 34.6% 30.0% 35.3% -9.8 33
2010-04-02 @ Trofense W 1-0 1628 1571 35.3% 30.0% 34.6% +9.8 46
2010-04-03 Chaves W 2-0 1543 1540 42.9% 29.6% 27.5% +15.6 31
2010-04-03 @ Penafiel L 0-2 1540 1543 27.5% 29.6% 42.9% -15.6 24
2010-04-03 Estoril L 0-2 1574 1549 45.8% 29.2% 24.9% -22.8 32
2010-04-03 @ Freamunde W 2-0 1549 1574 24.9% 29.2% 45.8% +22.8 30
2010-04-03 Feirense L 0-1 1492 1616 26.0% 29.4% 44.5% -7.9 17
2010-04-03 @ Carregado W 1-0 1616 1492 44.5% 29.4% 26.0% +7.9 41
2010-04-03 Oliveirense W 1-0 1558 1626 33.1% 30.0% 36.9% +10.3 32
2010-04-03 @ Gil Vicente L 0-1 1626 1558 36.9% 30.0% 33.1% -10.2 42
2010-04-03 Portimonense L 0-1 1546 1592 36.2% 30.0% 33.8% -10.1 31
2010-04-03 @ Fatima W 1-0 1592 1546 33.8% 30.0% 36.2% +10.1 44
2010-04-03 Sporting Covilha D 1-1 1680 1503 63.0% 24.1% 13.0% -3.0 43
2010-04-03 @ Santa Clara D 1-1 1503 1680 13.0% 24.1% 63.0% +3.0 26
2010-04-03 Varzim W 2-0 1587 1493 54.2% 27.3% 18.4% +11.1 37
2010-04-03 @ Aves L 0-2 1493 1587 18.4% 27.3% 54.2% -11.1 26
2010-04-10 Carregado D 1-1 1572 1485 53.4% 27.6% 19.0% -2.0 31
2010-04-10 @ Estoril D 1-1 1485 1572 19.0% 27.6% 53.4% +2.0 18
2010-04-10 Gil Vicente D 1-1 1524 1568 36.4% 30.0% 33.6% -0.1 25
2010-04-10 @ Chaves D 1-1 1568 1524 33.6% 30.0% 36.4% +0.1 33
2010-04-10 Santa Clara D 1-1 1638 1677 37.2% 30.0% 32.8% -0.2 47
2010-04-10 @ Beira-Mar D 1-1 1677 1638 32.8% 30.0% 37.2% +0.2 44
2010-04-11 Aves W 3-1 1615 1598 44.9% 29.4% 25.7% +12.8 45
2010-04-11 @ Oliveirense L 1-3 1598 1615 25.7% 29.4% 44.9% -12.8 37
2010-04-11 Fatima D 1-1 1624 1536 53.5% 27.6% 18.9% -2.0 42
2010-04-11 @ Feirense D 1-1 1536 1624 18.9% 27.6% 53.5% +2.0 32
2010-04-11 Penafiel D 2-2 1482 1558 31.9% 30.0% 38.2% +0.2 27
2010-04-11 @ Varzim D 2-2 1558 1482 38.2% 30.0% 31.9% -0.2 32
2010-04-11 Sporting Covilha W 2-0 1602 1506 54.5% 27.3% 18.2% +11.0 47
2010-04-11 @ Portimonense L 0-2 1506 1602 18.2% 27.3% 54.5% -11.0 26
2010-04-11 Trofense L 2-3 1551 1562 41.1% 29.8% 29.1% -9.9 32
2010-04-11 @ Freamunde W 3-2 1562 1551 29.1% 29.8% 41.1% +9.9 36
2010-04-15 Beira-Mar D 1-1 1569 1637 32.9% 30.0% 37.1% +0.2 34
2010-04-15 @ Gil Vicente D 1-1 1637 1569 37.1% 30.0% 32.9% -0.2 48
2010-04-17 Feirense D 1-1 1495 1622 25.7% 29.4% 45.0% +1.1 27
2010-04-17 @ Sporting Covilha D 1-1 1622 1495 45.0% 29.4% 25.7% -1.0 43
2010-04-18 Chaves W 2-1 1571 1524 48.7% 28.7% 22.6% +6.7 39
2010-04-18 @ Trofense L 1-2 1524 1571 22.6% 28.7% 48.7% -6.7 25
2010-04-18 Estoril W 1-0 1558 1570 41.0% 29.8% 29.2% +8.7 35
2010-04-18 @ Penafiel L 0-1 1570 1558 29.2% 29.8% 41.0% -8.7 31
2010-04-18 Freamunde W 3-2 1677 1541 58.8% 25.8% 15.4% +4.4 47
2010-04-18 @ Santa Clara L 2-3 1541 1677 15.4% 25.8% 58.8% -4.4 32
2010-04-18 Oliveirense D 1-1 1538 1628 30.1% 29.9% 40.1% +0.5 33
2010-04-18 @ Fatima D 1-1 1628 1538 40.1% 29.9% 30.1% -0.5 46
2010-04-18 Portimonense D 1-1 1585 1613 38.7% 29.9% 31.4% -0.4 38
2010-04-18 @ Aves D 1-1 1613 1585 31.4% 29.9% 38.7% +0.4 48
2010-04-18 Varzim W 3-2 1487 1482 43.2% 29.6% 27.2% +7.3 21
2010-04-18 @ Carregado L 2-3 1482 1487 27.2% 29.6% 43.2% -7.3 27
2010-04-24 Aves W 1-0 1561 1585 39.3% 29.9% 30.8% +9.0 34
2010-04-24 @ Estoril L 0-1 1585 1561 30.8% 29.9% 39.3% -9.0 38
2010-04-24 Portimonense W 2-1 1621 1614 43.5% 29.6% 26.9% +7.7 46
2010-04-24 @ Feirense L 1-2 1614 1621 26.9% 29.6% 43.5% -7.7 48
2010-04-25 Carregado W 2-0 1517 1494 45.7% 29.3% 25.1% +14.5 28
2010-04-25 @ Chaves L 0-2 1494 1517 25.1% 29.3% 45.7% -14.5 21
2010-04-25 Fatima D 1-1 1474 1539 33.5% 30.0% 36.4% +0.1 28
2010-04-25 @ Varzim D 1-1 1539 1474 36.4% 30.0% 33.5% -0.2 34
2010-04-25 Gil Vicente W 3-2 1536 1569 38.1% 30.0% 31.9% +8.3 35
2010-04-25 @ Freamunde L 2-3 1569 1536 31.9% 30.0% 38.1% -8.3 34
2010-04-25 Penafiel L 1-2 1637 1567 51.5% 28.1% 20.4% -12.5 48
2010-04-25 @ Beira-Mar W 2-1 1567 1637 20.4% 28.1% 51.5% +12.5 38
2010-04-25 Santa Clara W 5-2 1578 1681 28.4% 29.7% 41.8% +22.5 42
2010-04-25 @ Trofense L 2-5 1681 1578 41.8% 29.7% 28.4% -22.5 47
2010-04-25 Sporting Covilha W 3-0 1628 1496 58.4% 25.9% 15.7% +13.8 49
2010-04-25 @ Oliveirense L 0-3 1496 1628 15.7% 25.9% 58.4% -13.8 27
2010-05-01 Beira-Mar L 1-3 1576 1625 35.7% 30.0% 34.2% -16.4 38
2010-05-01 @ Aves W 3-1 1625 1576 34.2% 30.0% 35.7% +16.4 51
2010-05-01 Chaves W 2-0 1482 1532 35.6% 30.0% 34.3% +18.4 30
2010-05-01 @ Sporting Covilha L 0-2 1532 1482 34.3% 30.0% 35.6% -18.4 28
2010-05-01 Estoril D 1-1 1539 1570 38.2% 30.0% 31.8% -0.3 35
2010-05-01 @ Fatima D 1-1 1570 1539 31.8% 30.0% 38.2% +0.3 35
2010-05-01 Freamunde W 3-2 1479 1545 33.4% 30.0% 36.6% +9.1 24
2010-05-01 @ Carregado L 2-3 1545 1479 36.6% 30.0% 33.4% -9.1 35
2010-05-01 Oliveirense W 2-1 1628 1642 40.8% 29.8% 29.4% +8.2 49
2010-05-01 @ Feirense L 1-2 1642 1628 29.4% 29.8% 40.8% -8.2 49
2010-05-01 Santa Clara D 0-0 1561 1659 29.0% 29.8% 41.2% +0.7 35
2010-05-01 @ Gil Vicente D 0-0 1659 1561 41.2% 29.8% 29.0% -0.7 48
2010-05-01 Trofense L 0-1 1579 1601 39.6% 29.9% 30.5% -10.8 38
2010-05-01 @ Penafiel W 1-0 1601 1579 30.5% 29.9% 39.6% +10.8 45
2010-05-01 Varzim W 3-2 1606 1475 58.4% 26.0% 15.7% +4.5 51
2010-05-01 @ Portimonense L 2-3 1475 1606 15.7% 26.0% 58.4% -4.5 28
2010-05-08 Aves W 2-0 1658 1559 54.8% 27.2% 18.1% +10.9 51
2010-05-08 @ Santa Clara L 0-2 1559 1658 18.1% 27.2% 54.8% -10.9 38
2010-05-08 Carregado W 1-0 1641 1488 60.6% 25.1% 14.3% +4.6 54
2010-05-08 @ Beira-Mar L 0-1 1488 1641 14.3% 25.1% 60.6% -4.6 24
2010-05-08 Fatima L 0-1 1514 1538 39.2% 29.9% 30.9% -10.7 28
2010-05-08 @ Chaves W 1-0 1538 1514 30.9% 29.9% 39.2% +10.7 38
2010-05-08 Feirense L 1-2 1570 1637 33.3% 30.0% 36.7% -9.0 35
2010-05-08 @ Estoril W 2-1 1637 1570 36.7% 30.0% 33.3% +9.0 52
2010-05-08 Gil Vicente L 2-4 1611 1561 49.0% 28.7% 22.3% -18.6 45
2010-05-08 @ Trofense W 4-2 1561 1611 22.3% 28.7% 49.0% +18.6 38
2010-05-08 Penafiel L 1-3 1536 1568 38.0% 30.0% 32.0% -17.1 35
2010-05-08 @ Freamunde W 3-1 1568 1536 32.0% 30.0% 38.0% +17.1 41
2010-05-08 Portimonense L 0-1 1633 1610 45.6% 29.3% 25.1% -12.0 49
2010-05-08 @ Oliveirense W 1-0 1610 1633 25.1% 29.3% 45.6% +12.0 54
2010-05-08 Sporting Covilha W 1-0 1470 1501 38.3% 30.0% 31.7% +9.2 31
2010-05-08 @ Varzim L 0-1 1501 1470 31.7% 30.0% 38.3% -9.2 30

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2010-01-31 13.12% Penafiel 1485 1 @ Santa Clara 1659 0
2 2009-10-24 15.99% Varzim 1494 2 @ Gil Vicente 1621 1
3 2010-02-14 16.80% Fatima 1531 1 @ Beira-Mar 1647 0
4 2010-03-07 17.52% Penafiel 1524 3 @ Portimonense 1630 1
5 2010-03-28 17.95% Freamunde 1551 3 @ Beira-Mar 1651 1
6 2010-02-14 18.21% Varzim 1499 1 @ Chaves 1596 0
7 2010-01-31 19.20% Carregado 1505 1 @ Gil Vicente 1589 0
8 2010-01-31 19.30% Aves 1535 1 @ Chaves 1618 0
9 2010-02-21 20.37% Trofense 1553 3 @ Portimonense 1624 1
10 2010-04-25 20.39% Penafiel 1567 2 @ Beira-Mar 1637 1
11 2010-03-14 20.73% @ Carregado 1468 4 Oliveirense 1643 1
12 2009-09-26 21.09% Portimonense 1547 3 @ Trofense 1610 0
13 2009-09-20 21.24% Santa Clara 1583 2 @ Carregado 1645 1
14 2009-12-19 21.60% Fatima 1552 1 @ Estoril 1609 0
15 2009-11-08 22.26% Estoril 1568 2 @ Gil Vicente 1619 0
16 2010-05-08 22.30% Gil Vicente 1561 4 @ Trofense 1611 2
17 2009-10-24 22.43% Fatima 1504 1 @ Aves 1553 0
18 2009-08-16 23.19% Feirense 1558 1 @ Chaves 1600 0
19 2009-08-30 23.54% Oliveirense 1557 2 @ Santa Clara 1595 1
20 2010-03-27 23.57% Gil Vicente 1535 2 @ Estoril 1572 0
21 2009-08-16 23.65% Portimonense 1549 3 @ Estoril 1585 1
22 2009-08-23 23.76% @ Fatima 1506 2 Trofense 1650 1
23 2009-11-07 24.85% Portimonense 1580 3 @ Carregado 1606 1
24 2009-11-01 24.87% Aves 1540 2 @ Sporting Covilha 1565 1
25 2010-04-03 24.94% Estoril 1549 2 @ Freamunde 1574 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2009-09-26 35.85 Portimonense 3 1547 21.09% @ Trofense 0 1610 50.59% 28.32%
2 2010-01-09 34.52 @ Gil Vicente 4 1555 36.13% Trofense 0 1602 33.84% 30.03%
3 2009-11-29 32.79 Chaves 3 1575 25.39% @ Gil Vicente 0 1595 45.29% 29.32%
4 2010-02-07 32.60 Penafiel 3 1500 25.67% @ Carregado 0 1518 44.96% 29.37%
5 2010-03-14 30.45 @ Carregado 4 1468 20.73% Oliveirense 1 1643 51.06% 28.21%
6 2009-11-01 30.16 @ Oliveirense 3 1542 29.55% Carregado 0 1636 40.62% 29.83%
7 2009-09-19 30.01 Gil Vicente 3 1593 29.78% @ Portimonense 0 1577 40.36% 29.85%
8 2010-02-28 27.88 Portimonense 3 1602 33.48% @ Freamunde 0 1558 36.50% 30.03%
9 2009-09-19 26.79 @ Feirense 3 1586 35.46% Trofense 0 1637 34.50% 30.04%
10 2009-12-20 26.18 @ Freamunde 3 1515 36.59% Carregado 0 1558 33.39% 30.02%
11 2009-08-16 26.03 @ Trofense 3 1624 36.86% Carregado 0 1665 33.12% 30.02%
12 2009-11-08 25.76 @ Fatima 3 1516 37.34% Sporting Covilha 0 1554 32.66% 30.01%
13 2009-11-29 25.66 @ Trofense 4 1591 48.21% Freamunde 0 1547 22.96% 28.83%
14 2009-08-23 25.04 @ Feirense 4 1571 49.03% Varzim 0 1521 22.31% 28.67%
15 2010-03-28 24.17 Santa Clara 3 1655 40.23% @ Chaves 0 1564 29.91% 29.86%
16 2009-11-08 24.08 Estoril 2 1568 22.26% @ Gil Vicente 0 1619 49.09% 28.65%
17 2010-03-27 23.43 Gil Vicente 2 1535 23.57% @ Estoril 0 1572 47.46% 28.97%
18 2009-08-30 23.14 @ Gil Vicente 3 1570 42.06% Sporting Covilha 0 1574 28.23% 29.71%
19 2010-03-07 23.07 Penafiel 3 1524 17.52% @ Portimonense 1 1630 55.53% 26.94%
20 2010-03-28 22.85 Freamunde 3 1551 17.95% @ Beira-Mar 1 1651 54.91% 27.14%
21 2010-04-03 22.79 Estoril 2 1549 24.94% @ Freamunde 0 1574 45.82% 29.24%
22 2010-04-25 22.52 @ Trofense 5 1578 28.43% Santa Clara 2 1681 41.84% 29.73%
23 2010-02-21 21.70 Trofense 3 1553 20.37% @ Portimonense 1 1624 51.54% 28.09%
24 2010-02-27 21.57 Aves 2 1564 27.66% @ Gil Vicente 0 1565 42.69% 29.65%
25 2009-11-08 21.34 @ Santa Clara 3 1603 45.24% Chaves 0 1582 25.43% 29.33%